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CHEERING | 0:00:03 | 0:00:05 | |
On the 24th of June last year, | 0:00:06 | 0:00:09 | |
Britain woke up to a political earthquake. | 0:00:09 | 0:00:12 | |
The sun has risen on an independent United Kingdom. | 0:00:12 | 0:00:16 | |
The shock waves spread across Europe. | 0:00:16 | 0:00:19 | |
'It's incredible, it's unbelievable, it's impossible!' | 0:00:19 | 0:00:21 | |
This was the first reaction - shock. | 0:00:21 | 0:00:24 | |
In Britain, we're now consumed by what Brexit means for us, | 0:00:24 | 0:00:28 | |
but for the European Union, Brexit is one crisis of many. | 0:00:28 | 0:00:32 | |
Following our historic vote, | 0:00:36 | 0:00:38 | |
I set off across Europe | 0:00:38 | 0:00:40 | |
to meet the populist Euro-sceptics | 0:00:40 | 0:00:42 | |
taking this continent by storm... | 0:00:42 | 0:00:46 | |
-Bonjour! -Katya Adler, BBC. | 0:00:50 | 0:00:52 | |
..and I've been witnessing the continuing misery | 0:00:58 | 0:01:01 | |
with the euro in the countries of the south. | 0:01:01 | 0:01:04 | |
The Italians have very good cause to be very, very angry. | 0:01:04 | 0:01:08 | |
Italy's not Greece. | 0:01:08 | 0:01:09 | |
If the euro collapses, that is the beginning of the end of the EU. | 0:01:09 | 0:01:13 | |
Add the migrant crisis, and it's a perfect storm. | 0:01:13 | 0:01:16 | |
Even those at the helm wonder if the EU can survive. | 0:01:16 | 0:01:20 | |
The risk that we fall apart is a real risk, yes. | 0:01:20 | 0:01:25 | |
For the first time in the history of European integration, | 0:01:25 | 0:01:28 | |
we can fail. | 0:01:28 | 0:01:31 | |
Failure is possible. | 0:01:31 | 0:01:32 | |
This is new European politics, Italian style. | 0:01:42 | 0:01:46 | |
In a nation obsessed with beauty, | 0:01:50 | 0:01:52 | |
Alessandro Di Battista is possibly Italy's most glamorous politician. | 0:01:52 | 0:01:56 | |
He's a leader of a movement called Five Star. | 0:02:00 | 0:02:03 | |
Everyone wants to touch him, everyone wants to kiss him. | 0:02:04 | 0:02:07 | |
This is a bit of a rock star | 0:02:07 | 0:02:08 | |
of the Five Star Movement. | 0:02:08 | 0:02:10 | |
He's just been on a coast-to-coast tour of Italy, | 0:02:10 | 0:02:13 | |
meeting people, live-blogging as he goes, posing for Instagram. | 0:02:13 | 0:02:17 | |
OK. Grazie. Grazie. | 0:02:28 | 0:02:30 | |
The Five Star Movement really is the | 0:03:13 | 0:03:16 | |
party to watch in Italy right now. | 0:03:16 | 0:03:18 | |
It's only a few years old, | 0:03:18 | 0:03:20 | |
but it's threatening to bring down the Italian political establishment | 0:03:20 | 0:03:24 | |
with its anti-Establishment, | 0:03:24 | 0:03:26 | |
anti-capitalist, anti-EU, populist, | 0:03:26 | 0:03:29 | |
nationalist message, that's taking Italy by storm. | 0:03:29 | 0:03:33 | |
-OVER PA: -Alessandro Di Battista! | 0:03:33 | 0:03:35 | |
HE SPEAKS ITALIAN | 0:03:39 | 0:03:41 | |
If Di Battista is the rock star of Five Star, | 0:03:45 | 0:03:48 | |
the godfather of the movement is a very different kind of politician. | 0:03:48 | 0:03:52 | |
There he is! | 0:03:52 | 0:03:53 | |
Beppe Grillo is known for being, um... | 0:03:53 | 0:03:57 | |
a little bit creative, a little bit idiosyncratic. | 0:03:57 | 0:04:00 | |
Will he do the interview, will he not do the interview? | 0:04:01 | 0:04:04 | |
You never know. It's part of the excitement. | 0:04:04 | 0:04:06 | |
See you later. | 0:05:10 | 0:05:11 | |
HE SINGS THE BLUES | 0:05:13 | 0:05:16 | |
Grillo started out as a blogger and stand-up comic. | 0:05:26 | 0:05:29 | |
He's now a cult figure, | 0:05:29 | 0:05:31 | |
and one of the most influential politicians in his country. | 0:05:31 | 0:05:35 | |
CROWD CHANTS | 0:05:35 | 0:05:36 | |
No, no, no, no, no, no, no. No, no, no. | 0:05:36 | 0:05:39 | |
Polls show his party is Italy's most popular. | 0:05:43 | 0:05:46 | |
Five Star is a rather haphazard movement, | 0:05:54 | 0:05:56 | |
but one thing is clear - | 0:05:56 | 0:05:58 | |
they want a vote on whether Italy should leave the euro, | 0:05:58 | 0:06:02 | |
a serious threat to the power brokers in Brussels. | 0:06:02 | 0:06:05 | |
This movement of Mr Grillo has for everything a scapegoat, | 0:06:05 | 0:06:09 | |
for nothing a solution. | 0:06:09 | 0:06:11 | |
Grillo is loud... | 0:06:12 | 0:06:15 | |
funny from time to time, | 0:06:15 | 0:06:16 | |
ugly from time to time with the words, | 0:06:16 | 0:06:20 | |
nasty with his words. | 0:06:20 | 0:06:22 | |
But I'm looking for a single solution for what to do. | 0:06:22 | 0:06:26 | |
He proposed nothing. | 0:06:26 | 0:06:28 | |
I think it's a wave of feelings | 0:06:30 | 0:06:33 | |
against the Establishment, against, in some cases, the rules, | 0:06:33 | 0:06:39 | |
against whatever can threaten what I know. | 0:06:39 | 0:06:42 | |
I do not have one single example in mind | 0:06:44 | 0:06:48 | |
of an anti-Establishment policy | 0:06:48 | 0:06:50 | |
that has managed to solve one single problem. | 0:06:50 | 0:06:53 | |
Five Star is part of a phenomenon taking Europe by storm. | 0:07:28 | 0:07:33 | |
In over 20 years of living and working across Europe, | 0:07:33 | 0:07:37 | |
I've never seen anything like it. | 0:07:37 | 0:07:40 | |
SIRENS BLARE | 0:07:40 | 0:07:41 | |
In almost every EU country, there's now an anti-Establishment, | 0:07:47 | 0:07:51 | |
nationalist-minded movement on the rise. | 0:07:51 | 0:07:54 | |
Dutch right-wing leader Geert Wilders is typically Euro-sceptic. | 0:07:54 | 0:07:58 | |
Euro-scepticism has spread | 0:08:05 | 0:08:07 | |
as part of growing anger at traditional elites. | 0:08:07 | 0:08:10 | |
And Brexit broke a taboo. | 0:08:10 | 0:08:12 | |
Everyone knows now if you don't like the EU, you can leave. | 0:08:12 | 0:08:16 | |
Vive la France! | 0:08:16 | 0:08:18 | |
People have lost trust in politicians | 0:08:40 | 0:08:43 | |
and they are saying, "Let's try something different." | 0:08:43 | 0:08:45 | |
In most cases, that is causing problems | 0:08:45 | 0:08:47 | |
for mainstream political parties and domestic politics, | 0:08:47 | 0:08:51 | |
but it isn't threatening the existence of the state. | 0:08:51 | 0:08:54 | |
The difference for the EU is | 0:08:54 | 0:08:55 | |
it's a fundamental challenge to its existence. | 0:08:55 | 0:08:58 | |
They're shouting from the sidelines | 0:08:58 | 0:09:00 | |
and they're effecting discourse | 0:09:00 | 0:09:02 | |
amongst the mainstream political parties, | 0:09:02 | 0:09:04 | |
and we have a populist party doing fairly well | 0:09:04 | 0:09:06 | |
in almost every European country except for Cyprus. | 0:09:06 | 0:09:09 | |
MUSIC: Mi Sei Scoppiato Dentro Al Cuore by Mina | 0:09:10 | 0:09:13 | |
I live in Brussels, the heart of the EU. | 0:09:27 | 0:09:30 | |
But Italy has always played a big part in my life. | 0:09:30 | 0:09:34 | |
HORN BEEPS | 0:09:34 | 0:09:35 | |
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. | 0:09:35 | 0:09:37 | |
If I'm going to drive a Cinquecento, I'm going to drive it... | 0:09:37 | 0:09:41 | |
like an Italian. | 0:09:41 | 0:09:43 | |
Here in the south, | 0:09:46 | 0:09:47 | |
it feels a million miles from the calm, organised streets of Brussels. | 0:09:47 | 0:09:52 | |
This is so Italian! | 0:09:52 | 0:09:54 | |
The cars are allowed in here. | 0:09:54 | 0:09:56 | |
Sicily has always been amongst the poorest | 0:10:07 | 0:10:10 | |
and most chaotic parts of Europe. | 0:10:10 | 0:10:12 | |
One of the reasons for the EU | 0:10:12 | 0:10:14 | |
was to make places like this richer and more mainstream. | 0:10:14 | 0:10:17 | |
But downtown Palermo feels more left behind than ever. | 0:10:17 | 0:10:21 | |
Old toys, bashed-up toys. | 0:10:22 | 0:10:24 | |
I mean, more and more and more - it's like a sea. | 0:10:24 | 0:10:27 | |
No surprise, then, that it's a Five Star stronghold. | 0:10:31 | 0:10:35 | |
I've come to an industrial area | 0:10:35 | 0:10:37 | |
to catch up with someone I met at the Five Star rally. | 0:10:37 | 0:10:39 | |
Ciao! | 0:10:41 | 0:10:42 | |
SHE GREETS IN ITALIAN | 0:10:42 | 0:10:44 | |
Sebastiano used to work in a factory complex | 0:10:56 | 0:10:59 | |
dominated by a Fiat plant. | 0:10:59 | 0:11:01 | |
In 2011, Fiat closed its gates | 0:11:01 | 0:11:04 | |
and moved production to Eastern Europe, where labour is cheaper, | 0:11:04 | 0:11:07 | |
triggering a wave of factory closures here. | 0:11:07 | 0:11:10 | |
Thousands of workers here like Sebastiano | 0:11:30 | 0:11:33 | |
see themselves as victims of globalisation | 0:11:33 | 0:11:36 | |
and the European Union. | 0:11:36 | 0:11:38 | |
It's a story repeated across southern Europe. | 0:11:38 | 0:11:41 | |
In parts of Greece, Spain and Italy, | 0:11:41 | 0:11:43 | |
half of all young people are out of work. | 0:11:43 | 0:11:46 | |
Italy was one of the EU's founding members. | 0:11:52 | 0:11:55 | |
Faced with corruption and weak governments at home, | 0:11:55 | 0:11:58 | |
Italians have traditionally been EU enthusiasts. | 0:11:58 | 0:12:02 | |
But not any more. | 0:12:02 | 0:12:04 | |
It's September, | 0:12:05 | 0:12:06 | |
and the current Italian government is facing a huge challenge. | 0:12:06 | 0:12:10 | |
The Prime Minister here, Matteo Renzi, | 0:12:11 | 0:12:13 | |
came to government promising to change Italy or change jobs. | 0:12:13 | 0:12:18 | |
He is now holding a referendum on political reform, but if he loses, | 0:12:18 | 0:12:24 | |
Five Star, of course, are waiting in the wings. | 0:12:24 | 0:12:27 | |
Matteo Renzi is a centre-left politician | 0:12:29 | 0:12:31 | |
and a passionate European. | 0:12:31 | 0:12:34 | |
He thinks of himself as a radical reformer. | 0:12:34 | 0:12:37 | |
He's called the referendum on a series of constitutional changes | 0:12:37 | 0:12:41 | |
designed to unblock Italy's costly, corrupt | 0:12:41 | 0:12:43 | |
and sluggish political system. | 0:12:43 | 0:12:45 | |
-Hello. -Hello. Hi, Prime Minister. Thank you... | 0:12:45 | 0:12:48 | |
-How are you? -I'm good. And you? -Very good, thanks. | 0:12:48 | 0:12:51 | |
You've called a referendum for 4th December. | 0:12:54 | 0:12:57 | |
Calling referendums, as we know, is a huge political gamble. | 0:12:57 | 0:13:01 | |
Doesn't that worry you? | 0:13:01 | 0:13:03 | |
I know in 2016, you use the expression "referendum" | 0:13:03 | 0:13:07 | |
in the EU, it's a risk. | 0:13:07 | 0:13:09 | |
But jokes apart, | 0:13:09 | 0:13:11 | |
I believe this is a great challenge for the Italian people, | 0:13:11 | 0:13:14 | |
and so I'm not worried. | 0:13:14 | 0:13:15 | |
We wind back a few months and David Cameron wasn't worried. | 0:13:15 | 0:13:18 | |
Thank you so much for being... for being the bench marker! | 0:13:18 | 0:13:22 | |
I hope... I hope the result will be different. | 0:13:22 | 0:13:26 | |
Isn't there a risk, though, that...? | 0:13:26 | 0:13:27 | |
You know, we've seen in so many European countries, | 0:13:27 | 0:13:30 | |
we look over the Atlantic to the United States. | 0:13:30 | 0:13:32 | |
There are more and more angry people, | 0:13:32 | 0:13:34 | |
people who feel they've been left behind | 0:13:34 | 0:13:36 | |
and who are angry at the Establishment. | 0:13:36 | 0:13:38 | |
And even though you want to change Italy, | 0:13:38 | 0:13:41 | |
the risk is, Italians may just vote against you | 0:13:41 | 0:13:43 | |
as part of what they see as an elite. | 0:13:43 | 0:13:46 | |
This is a risk. | 0:13:46 | 0:13:47 | |
It's a clear risk. | 0:13:47 | 0:13:49 | |
But I think... | 0:13:49 | 0:13:51 | |
the message of the populist will be defeated in the next election. | 0:13:51 | 0:13:56 | |
So I'm not worried for the growth of the Five Star Movement. | 0:13:56 | 0:14:00 | |
Five Star is campaigning for a no vote in the referendum | 0:14:01 | 0:14:04 | |
against Matteo Renzi and the Italian Establishment as a whole. | 0:14:04 | 0:14:09 | |
A no vote might mean early elections here, which Five Star could win, | 0:14:09 | 0:14:13 | |
after Brexit - another potential body blow for the European Union. | 0:14:13 | 0:14:18 | |
It's October, and there's another European referendum in the air, | 0:14:25 | 0:14:30 | |
this time on migration. | 0:14:30 | 0:14:31 | |
I've made my way to southern Hungary, the very edge of the EU, | 0:14:34 | 0:14:39 | |
not long ago, the epicentre of a major European crisis. | 0:14:39 | 0:14:43 | |
More than a million refugees and other migrants | 0:14:53 | 0:14:56 | |
came flooding into Europe in 2015. | 0:14:56 | 0:14:59 | |
In Hungary, the authorities were not exactly welcoming. | 0:14:59 | 0:15:02 | |
Farmers living on Hungary's border found themselves on the front line. | 0:15:15 | 0:15:20 | |
DRAMATIC MUSIC | 0:15:30 | 0:15:32 | |
The EU seemed unable to take charge. | 0:15:38 | 0:15:42 | |
Extreme right-wing mayor Laszlo Toroczkai | 0:15:42 | 0:15:45 | |
became an internet sensation | 0:15:45 | 0:15:47 | |
after he launched anti-migrant patrols | 0:15:47 | 0:15:49 | |
and posted his action movies on YouTube. | 0:15:49 | 0:15:52 | |
-Nice to meet you. -Pleased to meet you. | 0:16:04 | 0:16:07 | |
'Mayor Toroczkai says he's defending Christian Hungary | 0:16:07 | 0:16:10 | |
'against a Muslim invasion.' | 0:16:10 | 0:16:12 | |
Despite his extreme views, the mayor is influential here. | 0:16:40 | 0:16:44 | |
And in autumn 2015, he got what he'd been demanding. | 0:16:46 | 0:16:50 | |
In complete defiance of EU rules, | 0:16:55 | 0:16:57 | |
Hungary unilaterally closed off its border | 0:16:57 | 0:17:00 | |
with a 140-mile razor wire fence | 0:17:00 | 0:17:03 | |
patrolled 24/7 by thousands of guards | 0:17:03 | 0:17:06 | |
as well as the mayor's personal team. | 0:17:06 | 0:17:09 | |
Shouldn't Hungary have waited for a European Union solution | 0:17:10 | 0:17:13 | |
before acting unilaterally? | 0:17:13 | 0:17:14 | |
But it wasn't just Hungary. | 0:17:28 | 0:17:30 | |
Other EU countries soon followed suit. | 0:17:30 | 0:17:33 | |
In the blink of an eye, | 0:17:33 | 0:17:35 | |
the EU dream of open-border Europe was shattered. | 0:17:35 | 0:17:38 | |
I've come to Hungary's capital, Budapest. | 0:17:44 | 0:17:47 | |
In the wake of the migrant crisis, | 0:17:49 | 0:17:51 | |
the EU has called on all its member states | 0:17:51 | 0:17:53 | |
to give asylum to some of the refugees. | 0:17:53 | 0:17:56 | |
Out of a million, Hungary has been asked to take just 1,300. | 0:17:56 | 0:18:00 | |
The government here has called a referendum on the issue, | 0:18:02 | 0:18:06 | |
and it's pretty obvious how they want people to vote. | 0:18:06 | 0:18:09 | |
And there you see a government poster | 0:18:09 | 0:18:11 | |
talking about safeguarding the future of Hungary. | 0:18:11 | 0:18:14 | |
It has spent a fortune on this poster campaign, | 0:18:14 | 0:18:18 | |
plastering them all over the country. | 0:18:18 | 0:18:20 | |
Very anti-EU, very, very anti-migrant. | 0:18:20 | 0:18:24 | |
Basically, nationalist | 0:18:24 | 0:18:26 | |
and emphasising the importance of Hungary and national sovereignty. | 0:18:26 | 0:18:30 | |
Because here in Hungary, | 0:18:32 | 0:18:34 | |
the Euro-sceptic nationalists are already in power. | 0:18:34 | 0:18:38 | |
Prime Minister Viktor Orban has made a career out of Brussels-bashing. | 0:18:38 | 0:18:42 | |
Viktor Orban isn't the only thorn on the EU inside. | 0:18:50 | 0:18:55 | |
Hungary has teamed up with Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic | 0:18:55 | 0:18:59 | |
to form a controversial new voting bloc | 0:18:59 | 0:19:02 | |
nicknamed the Visegrad Group. | 0:19:02 | 0:19:04 | |
Viktor Orban, man of the people, | 0:19:05 | 0:19:08 | |
doesn't actually like speaking to the people very much. | 0:19:08 | 0:19:11 | |
At least, not people who might disagree with him. So... | 0:19:11 | 0:19:15 | |
We at the BBC, we've tried for years to get an audience, | 0:19:16 | 0:19:19 | |
but we failed. | 0:19:19 | 0:19:21 | |
Instead, today we're going to be speaking to his right-hand man, | 0:19:21 | 0:19:24 | |
the Foreign Minister of Hungary. | 0:19:24 | 0:19:26 | |
Slovakia, Czech Republic and Poland, | 0:19:28 | 0:19:29 | |
-those are your partners in the Visegrad Group. -Yeah, right. | 0:19:29 | 0:19:32 | |
Are you kind of like a gang at the side? | 0:19:32 | 0:19:33 | |
Do you sit together? Do people sort of...? | 0:19:33 | 0:19:35 | |
You know, is that how it works? | 0:19:35 | 0:19:37 | |
Yeah, usually we sit together before our meetings. | 0:19:37 | 0:19:40 | |
We usually text each other... | 0:19:40 | 0:19:41 | |
So you send each other texts during meetings? | 0:19:41 | 0:19:43 | |
Yeah, that happens sometimes as well, yeah. | 0:19:43 | 0:19:46 | |
Do you see yourselves a bit like the bad boys of the EU at the moment? | 0:19:46 | 0:19:50 | |
I wouldn't say this. I mean, you know... | 0:19:50 | 0:19:53 | |
Do you think Brussels would say it? | 0:19:53 | 0:19:55 | |
No, no, I don't like this kind of classification. | 0:19:55 | 0:19:57 | |
What I can understand is that it's not pretty much welcome, | 0:19:57 | 0:20:00 | |
and it's not without a good reason | 0:20:00 | 0:20:03 | |
that whenever the Prime Ministers of the Visegrad countries meet, | 0:20:03 | 0:20:06 | |
usually before that, | 0:20:06 | 0:20:08 | |
the other Prime Ministers of Western Europe are really angry. | 0:20:08 | 0:20:11 | |
"What's going to happen?" | 0:20:11 | 0:20:13 | |
-And this is now the tightest... -Are you happy about that? | 0:20:13 | 0:20:15 | |
-You're smiling. -I would say... I would say it's a kind of... | 0:20:15 | 0:20:18 | |
You know, it's a signal of respect, | 0:20:18 | 0:20:19 | |
because if we were not important, then nobody would care. | 0:20:19 | 0:20:23 | |
There have been so many decisions made about central Europe | 0:20:23 | 0:20:27 | |
without asking central Europeans. | 0:20:27 | 0:20:28 | |
Now it's not possible any more. It's impossible. | 0:20:28 | 0:20:30 | |
Finally, there's a voice of central Europe. | 0:20:30 | 0:20:32 | |
To truly understand Hungary's relationship with Europe, | 0:20:43 | 0:20:46 | |
I'm taking a ride on the underground. | 0:20:46 | 0:20:48 | |
Budapest's Line 1 is the oldest in continental Europe, | 0:20:50 | 0:20:54 | |
built when Hungary was the co-ruler | 0:20:54 | 0:20:56 | |
of one of Europe's most powerful empires. | 0:20:56 | 0:20:59 | |
Have a look at the architecture here and take a wild guess. | 0:21:01 | 0:21:05 | |
Line 2 and 3 were built with Soviet help | 0:21:05 | 0:21:07 | |
when Hungary was a communist state. | 0:21:07 | 0:21:10 | |
It really is out of Soviet Central casting. | 0:21:10 | 0:21:12 | |
Line 4, new and shiny, co-funded by... | 0:21:20 | 0:21:24 | |
the EU. | 0:21:24 | 0:21:25 | |
Economically, Hungary depends on the European Union, | 0:21:29 | 0:21:33 | |
but politically, this country couldn't be further away | 0:21:33 | 0:21:36 | |
from the EU vision of ever-closer union. | 0:21:36 | 0:21:39 | |
Europe unites two totally distinct cultures. | 0:21:40 | 0:21:44 | |
There's the Western European culture, | 0:21:44 | 0:21:47 | |
born from the post-war shock of what had happened | 0:21:47 | 0:21:52 | |
and the feeling that it was nationalism that destroyed Europe. | 0:21:52 | 0:21:56 | |
And there's the Eastern European culture. | 0:21:56 | 0:21:58 | |
They were occupied by the Soviets. | 0:21:58 | 0:22:01 | |
Nationalism was outlawed. | 0:22:01 | 0:22:03 | |
They feel that, having shaken off the shackles of the Soviet empire, | 0:22:03 | 0:22:07 | |
they don't want to be oppressed by the European empire. | 0:22:07 | 0:22:10 | |
Viktor Orban seems to relish goading the EU. | 0:22:12 | 0:22:16 | |
I've come to the small village where he was born. | 0:22:16 | 0:22:19 | |
It's undergone something of a boom since he became Prime Minister, | 0:22:19 | 0:22:22 | |
with a new football stadium | 0:22:22 | 0:22:24 | |
and one of Europe's more unusual railways, | 0:22:24 | 0:22:27 | |
one of Viktor's pet projects. | 0:22:27 | 0:22:30 | |
So, I'm on a train | 0:22:42 | 0:22:44 | |
that basically goes from one end to the other end | 0:22:44 | 0:22:48 | |
of Viktor Orban's village, | 0:22:48 | 0:22:50 | |
so it starts nowhere particularly interesting, | 0:22:50 | 0:22:53 | |
goes nowhere particularly interesting | 0:22:53 | 0:22:56 | |
and, really, it just defies any logic. | 0:22:56 | 0:23:00 | |
It's basically one big ego trip. | 0:23:00 | 0:23:02 | |
An EU-funded ego trip. | 0:23:02 | 0:23:05 | |
80% of the funding for this 3½-mile train line, | 0:23:05 | 0:23:09 | |
and its three stations, has come from the EU. | 0:23:09 | 0:23:12 | |
A cool two million euros. | 0:23:12 | 0:23:14 | |
Viktor Orban is dogged by allegations of cronyism | 0:23:17 | 0:23:20 | |
and corruption. | 0:23:20 | 0:23:21 | |
But autocratic Mr Orban doesn't take kindly to criticism. | 0:23:23 | 0:23:27 | |
In fact, he's pretty much banned it, | 0:23:27 | 0:23:29 | |
by taking over large chunks of the media. | 0:23:29 | 0:23:32 | |
He's a great admirer of Vladimir Putin | 0:23:32 | 0:23:36 | |
and an increasing embarrassment for the European Union. | 0:23:36 | 0:23:39 | |
Take this little interaction | 0:23:44 | 0:23:46 | |
with European commission president Jean-Claude Juncker. | 0:23:46 | 0:23:49 | |
Jean-Claude Juncker famously said, "Hello, dictator." | 0:23:58 | 0:24:01 | |
The media laughed. But there's a serious aspect to that. | 0:24:01 | 0:24:04 | |
The EU have been critical | 0:24:04 | 0:24:06 | |
of laws inside countries that don't respect human rights | 0:24:06 | 0:24:09 | |
or the rule of law or freedom of speech. | 0:24:09 | 0:24:11 | |
There you have Hungary on your doorstep. | 0:24:11 | 0:24:13 | |
How do you deal with that inside your family? | 0:24:13 | 0:24:16 | |
The consistency of our laws, of our systems, | 0:24:16 | 0:24:20 | |
of our reality inside the European Union | 0:24:20 | 0:24:23 | |
has to be 100% solid. | 0:24:23 | 0:24:26 | |
Otherwise first, we lose our soul, | 0:24:26 | 0:24:30 | |
and second, we lose our credibility. | 0:24:30 | 0:24:33 | |
The European Commission is the guardian of European laws, | 0:24:33 | 0:24:36 | |
and yet all there are are rebukes and studies but no action. | 0:24:36 | 0:24:41 | |
No, there are... No, there are instruments that can be used. | 0:24:41 | 0:24:45 | |
-But they're not used. -They can be used. They can be used. | 0:24:45 | 0:24:48 | |
But they haven't been used. | 0:24:48 | 0:24:50 | |
We have human rights issues not only in one country, but in many. | 0:24:50 | 0:24:54 | |
The EU seems powerless to act | 0:24:54 | 0:24:56 | |
when a country is not abiding by those fundamental principles | 0:24:56 | 0:25:00 | |
that are in our EU treaties. | 0:25:00 | 0:25:02 | |
They talk about it, but they don't know what to do about it. | 0:25:02 | 0:25:05 | |
Viktor Orban's latest two fingers to Brussels | 0:25:13 | 0:25:16 | |
is the referendum on migration. | 0:25:16 | 0:25:19 | |
Saying no to immigration and challenging Brussels | 0:25:19 | 0:25:22 | |
goes down well at home. | 0:25:22 | 0:25:24 | |
Like the Brexit vote, | 0:25:24 | 0:25:25 | |
this referendum highlights the gulf between ordinary voters and the EU. | 0:25:25 | 0:25:30 | |
So, this is the moment that everyone's been waiting for. | 0:25:36 | 0:25:39 | |
Viktor Orban on a stage, announcing the referendum result, | 0:25:39 | 0:25:43 | |
and even though there was a low voter turnout, | 0:25:43 | 0:25:46 | |
surprise, surprise, he says it was a huge success. | 0:25:46 | 0:25:49 | |
APPLAUSE | 0:25:49 | 0:25:51 | |
APPLAUSE | 0:26:12 | 0:26:14 | |
And that's it. He's off. No questions allowed. | 0:26:18 | 0:26:21 | |
We sent a clear message to Brussels | 0:26:26 | 0:26:29 | |
that we want to control our own border, | 0:26:29 | 0:26:31 | |
we want to have our authority entirely | 0:26:31 | 0:26:34 | |
and we want to make the decision whom we let come in our country | 0:26:34 | 0:26:37 | |
and whom we do not. | 0:26:37 | 0:26:38 | |
What happens if Brussels does just ignore it? | 0:26:38 | 0:26:40 | |
-What will you do? What will Hungary say? -They can't do it. | 0:26:40 | 0:26:43 | |
It will be too much. They cannot do it. | 0:26:43 | 0:26:46 | |
I mean, if you speak about democratic European Union, | 0:26:46 | 0:26:48 | |
if you speak about bringing Europe closer to people, | 0:26:48 | 0:26:51 | |
you must not deny the will of 3.2 million people in one country. | 0:26:51 | 0:26:55 | |
It's a very hypocritical behaviour, I think so. | 0:26:55 | 0:26:59 | |
The problem is, the member states play the game, | 0:26:59 | 0:27:02 | |
there is that union, we have nothing to do with it, | 0:27:02 | 0:27:05 | |
that union is playing against us. | 0:27:05 | 0:27:08 | |
That blame game is... | 0:27:08 | 0:27:11 | |
a virus | 0:27:11 | 0:27:13 | |
which could lead to the end of the European Union. | 0:27:13 | 0:27:16 | |
So, you have member states pointing the finger of blame here at Brussels. | 0:27:16 | 0:27:20 | |
You're sitting here and saying, | 0:27:20 | 0:27:21 | |
"It's their fault and their responsibility." | 0:27:21 | 0:27:23 | |
Throwing mud, both sides, is one thing, | 0:27:23 | 0:27:25 | |
but in the meantime, the European Union is falling apart. | 0:27:25 | 0:27:28 | |
But not because of me. | 0:27:28 | 0:27:29 | |
I tried to keep it together. | 0:27:29 | 0:27:31 | |
It's the people like Mr Orban, who argue against the European Union. | 0:27:31 | 0:27:36 | |
If the heads of state in the European Union | 0:27:36 | 0:27:40 | |
do not stop pointing the finger of blame at Brussels, | 0:27:40 | 0:27:44 | |
is the EU finished? | 0:27:44 | 0:27:46 | |
If that would continue as today, | 0:27:46 | 0:27:48 | |
the risk that we fall apart is a real risk, yes. | 0:27:48 | 0:27:52 | |
And what is the solution to all this Euro-griping? | 0:28:00 | 0:28:04 | |
I've got an appointment to meet a man who thinks he has the answer. | 0:28:04 | 0:28:08 | |
Guy Verhofstadt, former Belgian Prime Minister | 0:28:08 | 0:28:11 | |
and chief negotiator for Brexit for the European Parliament. | 0:28:11 | 0:28:15 | |
I just have to find him deep in the maze | 0:28:15 | 0:28:18 | |
that is the parliament's headquarters here in Brussels. | 0:28:18 | 0:28:21 | |
I'm looking for 5.5 C011. | 0:28:25 | 0:28:29 | |
Um... | 0:28:29 | 0:28:31 | |
I was told that in a way that I should know where that is. | 0:28:32 | 0:28:36 | |
Excuse me, please. | 0:28:36 | 0:28:38 | |
5 C011? | 0:28:38 | 0:28:41 | |
Um... | 0:28:41 | 0:28:42 | |
Are you sure you're looking for 5, and not 5.5? | 0:28:42 | 0:28:46 | |
-What's 5.5? -Who are you looking for? | 0:28:46 | 0:28:49 | |
Guy Verhofstadt. | 0:28:49 | 0:28:51 | |
This is not a good floor. | 0:28:51 | 0:28:53 | |
You have to go one floor up. You take the lift on that side. | 0:28:53 | 0:28:57 | |
But that's floor 6, right? | 0:28:57 | 0:28:58 | |
-No. This is floor 5. -Yeah. | 0:28:58 | 0:29:00 | |
He will have button 5.5. | 0:29:00 | 0:29:03 | |
-Five and a half? -Yeah. -Whoops. | 0:29:03 | 0:29:05 | |
OK. All right. Floor five and a half. | 0:29:05 | 0:29:07 | |
-OK! I'll, um... Thank you very much. -No problem. -Thank you. | 0:29:07 | 0:29:11 | |
OK. | 0:29:11 | 0:29:13 | |
If you want to get an idea of how Brussels works, | 0:29:17 | 0:29:21 | |
try spending a few hours in here. | 0:29:21 | 0:29:24 | |
I still can't quite get over it that... | 0:29:24 | 0:29:27 | |
five and a half... | 0:29:27 | 0:29:28 | |
'Floor 5.5.' | 0:29:28 | 0:29:31 | |
Floor 5.5. | 0:29:31 | 0:29:32 | |
Yes. | 0:29:32 | 0:29:34 | |
Guy Verhofstadt believes the only answer to the EU's current woes | 0:29:34 | 0:29:38 | |
is to complete European union | 0:29:38 | 0:29:40 | |
and create a true European government. | 0:29:40 | 0:29:43 | |
Bingo. Here it is. | 0:29:43 | 0:29:45 | |
We have to reform this whole business. | 0:29:45 | 0:29:47 | |
A more effective union, a more democratic union, | 0:29:47 | 0:29:49 | |
with a real European government, | 0:29:49 | 0:29:52 | |
with a real European defence capacity. | 0:29:52 | 0:29:57 | |
-European army? -A European army? Yeah. What's wrong on this? | 0:29:57 | 0:30:00 | |
Here in Europe, yeah, we don't act, we don't take the decision, | 0:30:00 | 0:30:04 | |
because you need unanimity before you can do something, | 0:30:04 | 0:30:08 | |
and it doesn't work in the world of today. | 0:30:08 | 0:30:11 | |
But look at France, look at Italy, look at Denmark, Sweden... | 0:30:11 | 0:30:15 | |
I mean, the list goes on, as you know. | 0:30:15 | 0:30:17 | |
How much support do you think there is for an idea like that? | 0:30:17 | 0:30:19 | |
-More and more. -Popular support? -Yeah. More and more. | 0:30:19 | 0:30:21 | |
What we feel is that since Brexit, something had changed. | 0:30:21 | 0:30:25 | |
I told after Brexit, "Oh, we're going to now have | 0:30:25 | 0:30:27 | |
"a referendum in the Netherlands about Nexit, | 0:30:27 | 0:30:30 | |
"a referendum in Denmark about Dexit." | 0:30:30 | 0:30:32 | |
It didn't happen. What we see is exactly the opposite. | 0:30:32 | 0:30:36 | |
Mr Verhofstadt, I have to tell you | 0:30:36 | 0:30:37 | |
that you are pretty much the only optimistic voice left, you know. | 0:30:37 | 0:30:41 | |
-No. -Yes. In my work, whether it's the news on Europe | 0:30:41 | 0:30:44 | |
or whether it's in this documentary... | 0:30:44 | 0:30:46 | |
In your world, yeah. | 0:30:46 | 0:30:47 | |
But at the same time, don't underestimate that... | 0:30:47 | 0:30:50 | |
How could I say? | 0:30:50 | 0:30:52 | |
The counter-revolution is already under way. | 0:30:52 | 0:30:55 | |
Ordinary citizens who don't want it to destroy Europe, | 0:30:55 | 0:31:00 | |
who are asking for a reformed European Union. | 0:31:00 | 0:31:03 | |
More effective. So since the Brexit, something had changed. | 0:31:03 | 0:31:06 | |
In its essence, | 0:31:16 | 0:31:18 | |
the EU has always been a political project, | 0:31:18 | 0:31:21 | |
a massive post-war mission | 0:31:21 | 0:31:23 | |
to guarantee continental peace and stability. | 0:31:23 | 0:31:26 | |
We're in gorgeous northern Tuscany. | 0:31:30 | 0:31:32 | |
My mum's best friend is Tuscan | 0:31:32 | 0:31:34 | |
and I've been coming here ever since I was born. | 0:31:34 | 0:31:37 | |
But many of the problems Europe now faces | 0:31:38 | 0:31:41 | |
are caused by the EU's vast economic experiment - the euro. | 0:31:41 | 0:31:45 | |
Love. We were in love. | 0:31:55 | 0:31:57 | |
We thought that this was going to be the marriage | 0:31:59 | 0:32:01 | |
of the next two centuries. | 0:32:01 | 0:32:03 | |
If you look at the statistics on... | 0:32:03 | 0:32:05 | |
the surveys on who liked most the euro, | 0:32:05 | 0:32:08 | |
Italy was always the leader. | 0:32:08 | 0:32:10 | |
The north is the richest part of Italy. | 0:32:15 | 0:32:17 | |
It's the industrial heartland of the country | 0:32:17 | 0:32:20 | |
as well as a tourist magnet. | 0:32:20 | 0:32:22 | |
I'm paying a visit to Empoli. | 0:32:26 | 0:32:27 | |
It's a town I've been coming to since I was little. | 0:32:27 | 0:32:30 | |
Look how many "for rent" signs there are. All these closed-down shops. | 0:32:34 | 0:32:39 | |
It's actually quite shocking. | 0:32:39 | 0:32:41 | |
I mean, this is supposedly posh northern Tuscany. | 0:32:41 | 0:32:44 | |
And... | 0:32:46 | 0:32:48 | |
I remember lots of very elegant northern Tuscan shops. | 0:32:48 | 0:32:52 | |
That's what made it so exciting to come here in the summer. | 0:32:52 | 0:32:54 | |
In the nearby village of Vinci, I'm meeting up with an old friend. | 0:32:57 | 0:33:01 | |
In fact, a childhood sweetheart. | 0:33:01 | 0:33:03 | |
We used to play here as kids. | 0:33:06 | 0:33:08 | |
Like many people around here, Fausto has fallen on hard times. | 0:34:17 | 0:34:22 | |
His restaurant business collapsed | 0:34:22 | 0:34:23 | |
and he now has three part-time jobs to try and make ends meet. | 0:34:23 | 0:34:27 | |
Europe's middle classes | 0:34:31 | 0:34:32 | |
have traditionally been big EU enthusiasts. | 0:34:32 | 0:34:36 | |
But the euro crisis hit them hard. | 0:34:36 | 0:34:39 | |
Fausto's backing the Euro-sceptic Five Star Movement. | 0:34:40 | 0:34:44 | |
Without fundamental change, | 0:34:44 | 0:34:46 | |
he can't see much future for his children. | 0:34:46 | 0:34:48 | |
The problems of the euro have dragged on for years, | 0:35:18 | 0:35:22 | |
since Greece first plunged the continent into crisis. | 0:35:22 | 0:35:26 | |
A fundamental flaw of the euro is that it's made southern Europe, | 0:35:26 | 0:35:29 | |
including big economies Italy and Spain, uncompetitive, | 0:35:29 | 0:35:34 | |
while the north, especially Germany, has boomed. | 0:35:34 | 0:35:38 | |
This creates deep and bitter European divisions. | 0:35:38 | 0:35:42 | |
The Italians have very good cause to be very, very angry. | 0:35:42 | 0:35:45 | |
Italy's not Greece. Italy's a successful country. | 0:35:46 | 0:35:49 | |
And yet Italy is sliding deeper every year | 0:35:49 | 0:35:54 | |
into a debt deflationary cycle, | 0:35:54 | 0:35:57 | |
and that is because of the design of the euro. | 0:35:57 | 0:35:59 | |
The signs of economic collapse are everywhere. | 0:36:03 | 0:36:06 | |
The euro alone can't be blamed, but at one point in Italy, | 0:36:06 | 0:36:10 | |
1,000 companies were going bust every day. | 0:36:10 | 0:36:13 | |
Across the eurozone, | 0:36:13 | 0:36:15 | |
a dangerous explosion of debt followed the 2008 economic crash. | 0:36:15 | 0:36:19 | |
It's December, and one of Italy's most famous national institutions | 0:36:21 | 0:36:25 | |
is in freefall. | 0:36:25 | 0:36:26 | |
# Na, na-na, na-na, na-na na-na na | 0:36:26 | 0:36:30 | |
# Ma il cielo e sempre piu blu... # | 0:36:30 | 0:36:33 | |
The oldest bank in the world is Tuscan. | 0:36:33 | 0:36:36 | |
Monte Dei Paschi Di Siena is Italy's third biggest bank. | 0:36:36 | 0:36:39 | |
-VOICE-OVER: -Monte Dei Paschi Di Siena... | 0:36:39 | 0:36:41 | |
According to stress tests, this is the weakest bank in Europe. | 0:36:45 | 0:36:50 | |
Monte Dei Paschi has a mountain of toxic debt. | 0:36:50 | 0:36:53 | |
Here are some worrying numbers for you. | 0:36:54 | 0:36:57 | |
This bank alone has more than £40 billion worth of bad debt. | 0:36:57 | 0:37:02 | |
Look across the Italian banking sector, | 0:37:02 | 0:37:05 | |
and there you see more than £300 billion worth of toxic debt. | 0:37:05 | 0:37:10 | |
And then, there is the Italian government. | 0:37:10 | 0:37:13 | |
With £2 trillion worth of debt, | 0:37:13 | 0:37:16 | |
that is the highest debt to national income level | 0:37:16 | 0:37:19 | |
in the whole of the EU - after Greece. | 0:37:19 | 0:37:23 | |
How vulnerable does that make this country? | 0:37:23 | 0:37:26 | |
Under pressure, the Italian government has agreed to a bailout, | 0:37:27 | 0:37:31 | |
but the rot at the heart of the Italian economy remains. | 0:37:31 | 0:37:36 | |
I think Italy is probably one of the biggest risks for Europe. | 0:37:36 | 0:37:40 | |
It is such a large country, | 0:37:40 | 0:37:41 | |
it is the third-largest economy in the eurozone, | 0:37:41 | 0:37:44 | |
and so if we did have Italy go into crisis, | 0:37:44 | 0:37:48 | |
there would likely be contagion elsewhere. | 0:37:48 | 0:37:51 | |
Grazie. | 0:37:55 | 0:37:57 | |
So, this...this is quite something. | 0:38:01 | 0:38:03 | |
This is a very mainstream Italian newspaper, | 0:38:03 | 0:38:07 | |
and yet it's got one article threatening that Italy | 0:38:07 | 0:38:10 | |
is poised to walk out of the eurozone | 0:38:10 | 0:38:13 | |
and another article saying why that...the majority of Italians | 0:38:13 | 0:38:18 | |
think that Germany is doing extremely well | 0:38:18 | 0:38:20 | |
out of the single currency, | 0:38:20 | 0:38:22 | |
whereas it says that more than 90% of Italians | 0:38:22 | 0:38:25 | |
think the euro has been a complete disaster. | 0:38:25 | 0:38:27 | |
If a country like Italy, with an economy the size of Italy | 0:38:29 | 0:38:33 | |
were to leave the euro, there are many people here who say | 0:38:33 | 0:38:36 | |
that would be the beginning of the end of the euro, | 0:38:36 | 0:38:39 | |
and many argue that if the euro collapses, | 0:38:39 | 0:38:41 | |
that is the beginning of the end of the EU. | 0:38:41 | 0:38:43 | |
Because that is the most central and important project, really, | 0:38:43 | 0:38:47 | |
in the EU's 60-year history. | 0:38:47 | 0:38:48 | |
That would end in a disaster, economic disaster. | 0:38:48 | 0:38:52 | |
A reintroduction of the German mark in Europe | 0:38:52 | 0:38:55 | |
in relation to Italian lira and French franc - | 0:38:55 | 0:38:59 | |
it's not necessary to be a Nobel Prize in economy | 0:38:59 | 0:39:02 | |
to understand that that would lead to a disaster in Europe. | 0:39:02 | 0:39:06 | |
The eurozone crisis has turned Europeans against Europeans. | 0:39:06 | 0:39:11 | |
It has sown division in Europe. | 0:39:11 | 0:39:14 | |
And that will stigmatise Europe for a very long time to come. | 0:39:14 | 0:39:17 | |
It's a bit like invading Russia - | 0:39:17 | 0:39:19 | |
it starts off beautifully, is a very spirited advance. | 0:39:19 | 0:39:23 | |
Remember Napoleon, Hitler, and so on. | 0:39:23 | 0:39:26 | |
Until you get bogged down in the snow | 0:39:26 | 0:39:28 | |
and you end up with blood on the snow. | 0:39:28 | 0:39:31 | |
And this is what is happening now in the European Union. | 0:39:31 | 0:39:33 | |
I am back in Rome as the Italian referendum approaches, | 0:39:40 | 0:39:44 | |
catching up with the rock star politician | 0:39:44 | 0:39:46 | |
of the Five Star Movement. | 0:39:46 | 0:39:48 | |
MAN OVER LOUDSPEAKER: | 0:39:50 | 0:39:53 | |
The referendum is meant to be about constitutional reform, | 0:39:55 | 0:39:59 | |
but Five Star has turned it into a vote of no-confidence | 0:39:59 | 0:40:02 | |
in Prime Minister Renzi's government. | 0:40:02 | 0:40:04 | |
CROWD CHANTS: | 0:40:09 | 0:40:12 | |
Anti-Renzi protests slip into violence. | 0:40:41 | 0:40:45 | |
So confident just a few months before, | 0:40:45 | 0:40:47 | |
it is now clear he is fighting for his political life. | 0:40:47 | 0:40:51 | |
And true to the 2016 anti-Establishment script, | 0:41:07 | 0:41:12 | |
Italians vote by a margin of 60 to 40 | 0:41:12 | 0:41:15 | |
against the government. | 0:41:15 | 0:41:17 | |
It's a bitter, personal humiliation for Matteo Renzi. | 0:41:17 | 0:41:21 | |
CHATTER | 0:41:47 | 0:41:49 | |
SINGING: | 0:41:52 | 0:41:53 | |
Another pro-European politician booted off stage. | 0:41:53 | 0:41:59 | |
Another slap in the face for the EU. | 0:41:59 | 0:42:01 | |
Amid typically Italian chaos and uncertainty, | 0:42:03 | 0:42:06 | |
there are rumours of an early general election - | 0:42:06 | 0:42:09 | |
all great news for Five Star. | 0:42:09 | 0:42:11 | |
Five more years of lack of growth, | 0:42:17 | 0:42:20 | |
five more years of rising unemployment among the youth. | 0:42:20 | 0:42:24 | |
The more you stay in the recession, the more people grow angrier, | 0:42:24 | 0:42:27 | |
the more the political parties are in power, we lost consensus. | 0:42:27 | 0:42:32 | |
The more populistic parties will grow, | 0:42:32 | 0:42:34 | |
and the quicker the constructure will fall apart. | 0:42:34 | 0:42:38 | |
We don't have much time. | 0:42:38 | 0:42:40 | |
HE SINGS THE BLUES | 0:42:41 | 0:42:45 | |
CHANTING | 0:42:45 | 0:42:50 | |
But if this uprising in Italy | 0:42:50 | 0:42:51 | |
feels like another blow to the European project, | 0:42:51 | 0:42:55 | |
it's in France where it might meet its Waterloo. | 0:42:55 | 0:42:58 | |
BELL RINGS | 0:42:58 | 0:43:01 | |
Henin-Beaumont in northern France - | 0:43:01 | 0:43:03 | |
another of Europe's desperate outposts. | 0:43:03 | 0:43:06 | |
France isn't Greece, or Italy. | 0:43:10 | 0:43:13 | |
The French economy has always been relatively successful. | 0:43:13 | 0:43:17 | |
But the national mood is deeply gloomy, | 0:43:17 | 0:43:20 | |
especially in places like this. | 0:43:20 | 0:43:22 | |
Jean-Claude was one of more than 800 workers | 0:43:26 | 0:43:30 | |
at this metal works before it closed. | 0:43:30 | 0:43:32 | |
Production moved to China. | 0:43:32 | 0:43:34 | |
In 2014, this town elected a mayor | 0:44:13 | 0:44:15 | |
from the anti-immigration, anti-globalisation Front National, | 0:44:15 | 0:44:20 | |
known for its nostalgic nationalism. | 0:44:20 | 0:44:22 | |
It's January, and I am in Paris to meet Marine Le Pen, | 0:45:08 | 0:45:12 | |
leader of the Front National. | 0:45:12 | 0:45:14 | |
The party was founded by her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, | 0:45:14 | 0:45:18 | |
who was widely condemned for his extreme right-wing views. | 0:45:18 | 0:45:22 | |
-Bonjour. -Katya Adler de la BBC. -Ah, oui. -Merci. | 0:45:24 | 0:45:28 | |
But Marine insists that the old divisions of right and left | 0:45:30 | 0:45:33 | |
no longer apply to the current revolution in European politics. | 0:45:33 | 0:45:38 | |
The Front National's views on migration and Islam | 0:48:11 | 0:48:14 | |
make Marine Le Pen one of the most divisive figures | 0:48:14 | 0:48:17 | |
in European politics. | 0:48:17 | 0:48:19 | |
But she is a top contender in presidential elections | 0:48:19 | 0:48:22 | |
here this spring. | 0:48:22 | 0:48:24 | |
Accepted wisdom predicts French voters of the left and centre | 0:48:24 | 0:48:28 | |
will come together to prevent a Front National president. | 0:48:28 | 0:48:32 | |
But polls and political wisdom can't be trusted these days. | 0:48:32 | 0:48:36 | |
Victory for Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election | 0:48:38 | 0:48:41 | |
would be the end of the European Union. | 0:48:41 | 0:48:43 | |
There is a serious risk that France, | 0:48:43 | 0:48:45 | |
one of the biggest members of the European Union, | 0:48:45 | 0:48:48 | |
a founding member of the European Union, | 0:48:48 | 0:48:50 | |
part of that Franco-German axis. | 0:48:50 | 0:48:52 | |
If France were to leave, that would be, probably, the deathblow. | 0:48:52 | 0:48:56 | |
Brexit is hard for the EU to cope with, | 0:48:56 | 0:48:58 | |
but we were always, the UK, a semi-detached nation. | 0:48:58 | 0:49:02 | |
This would be a fundamental blow, | 0:49:02 | 0:49:03 | |
and many people believe it would not recover. | 0:49:03 | 0:49:06 | |
That woman wants to become president of France, | 0:49:06 | 0:49:09 | |
but win an election, it's unthinkable. | 0:49:09 | 0:49:11 | |
Unthinkable? | 0:49:11 | 0:49:13 | |
Definitely not going to happen, in your opinion, Marine Le Pen? | 0:49:13 | 0:49:15 | |
You are relaxed about the French presidential election? | 0:49:15 | 0:49:18 | |
She will never win. I'm absolutely sure. | 0:49:18 | 0:49:21 | |
-Would you bet on that, though? -Yes. Yes. | 0:49:21 | 0:49:24 | |
Oui. | 0:49:30 | 0:49:31 | |
MUSIC: Egmont by Ludwig van Beethoven | 0:49:43 | 0:49:46 | |
With Britain on the way out, | 0:49:50 | 0:49:53 | |
France flirting with Marine Le Pen | 0:49:53 | 0:49:55 | |
and Italy in political and economic turmoil, | 0:49:55 | 0:49:58 | |
the fate of the continent increasingly seems to lie | 0:49:58 | 0:50:01 | |
here in Germany. | 0:50:01 | 0:50:03 | |
And with one politician. | 0:50:03 | 0:50:04 | |
For 12 years, Angela Merkel has been the real power behind the EU. | 0:50:16 | 0:50:21 | |
EU membership has meant so much for her country - | 0:50:21 | 0:50:24 | |
the chance for a new European beginning | 0:50:24 | 0:50:27 | |
after the horrors of the Nazi past. | 0:50:27 | 0:50:30 | |
Though dented by the migrant crisis, | 0:50:30 | 0:50:32 | |
with the unfolding drama of Donald Trump's presidency, | 0:50:32 | 0:50:35 | |
many see Merkel as the champion of moderation. | 0:50:35 | 0:50:39 | |
And her government remains deeply committed to the EU. | 0:50:39 | 0:50:44 | |
We are benefiting from Europe. | 0:50:44 | 0:50:46 | |
We have seen the history, and in the present, | 0:50:46 | 0:50:48 | |
we are benefiting from Europe. | 0:50:48 | 0:50:50 | |
We are so well-off as never before. | 0:50:50 | 0:50:53 | |
This is due to the euro, this is due to our unity. | 0:50:53 | 0:50:56 | |
Europe is the best thing that can happen for our interests. | 0:50:56 | 0:51:00 | |
So our main interest, | 0:51:00 | 0:51:02 | |
the pivotal interest, is to make Europe work again. | 0:51:02 | 0:51:06 | |
One of Angela Merkel's nicknames used to be "Queen of Europe", | 0:51:07 | 0:51:11 | |
but her crown has now slipped. | 0:51:11 | 0:51:13 | |
The migrant crisis has damaged her, not only here at home, | 0:51:13 | 0:51:17 | |
but also abroad. | 0:51:17 | 0:51:18 | |
And she used to be known for bullying, or charming, | 0:51:18 | 0:51:21 | |
other EU countries into following one EU line. | 0:51:21 | 0:51:25 | |
So she was the glue, if you like, that held things together. | 0:51:25 | 0:51:29 | |
Now that glue is becoming unstuck. | 0:51:29 | 0:51:31 | |
And for many ordinary Germans, | 0:51:31 | 0:51:33 | |
Europe seems to have become a bit of a joke. | 0:51:33 | 0:51:37 | |
And a bad one. | 0:51:37 | 0:51:39 | |
Germans are tired of having to stump up for endless Greek bailouts. | 0:51:45 | 0:51:49 | |
LAUGHTER | 0:51:53 | 0:51:56 | |
And there are doubts about Germany's ability | 0:51:56 | 0:51:58 | |
to integrate up to a million refugees and other migrants. | 0:51:58 | 0:52:02 | |
And now Germany has its own | 0:52:20 | 0:52:22 | |
populist, Eurosceptic nationalist party - the AFD. | 0:52:22 | 0:52:26 | |
The themes are familiar - | 0:52:28 | 0:52:30 | |
anti-migrant, anti-EU, | 0:52:30 | 0:52:33 | |
and, especially in the wake of recent terror attacks, anti-Islam. | 0:52:33 | 0:52:37 | |
In painfully politically correct Germany, this is hugely significant. | 0:52:37 | 0:52:42 | |
I joined in January 2016 | 0:52:44 | 0:52:46 | |
because I was so shocked, you know, the borders had been opened. | 0:52:46 | 0:52:49 | |
I thought this loss of serenity, this loss of home | 0:52:49 | 0:52:53 | |
made many people rethink their political ideas. | 0:52:53 | 0:52:56 | |
We need a strong voice of the right-wing in Parliament. | 0:52:56 | 0:53:01 | |
Everything else is progressive, left-wing, bad. You know? | 0:53:01 | 0:53:05 | |
There was a big problem in German policy, | 0:53:05 | 0:53:08 | |
there was political correctness, and many people said, | 0:53:08 | 0:53:11 | |
"I don't feel represented by the parties in Germany". | 0:53:11 | 0:53:14 | |
And so the AFD was founded. | 0:53:14 | 0:53:16 | |
Now we have much more diverse opinions in the German policy | 0:53:16 | 0:53:21 | |
and that is fresh life for democracy. | 0:53:21 | 0:53:24 | |
Polls predict AFD could win 15, even 20% of the vote | 0:53:27 | 0:53:31 | |
in the general election here this autumn. | 0:53:31 | 0:53:34 | |
Germans have a right to decide their own future, | 0:53:34 | 0:53:36 | |
and it is time that the Germans take back the power | 0:53:36 | 0:53:39 | |
from this bureaucracy in Brussels. | 0:53:39 | 0:53:42 | |
For the first time in Germany, | 0:53:42 | 0:53:44 | |
European integration is being seriously questioned. | 0:53:44 | 0:53:47 | |
It's not possible for Germany to rescue all of the rest of Europe | 0:53:50 | 0:53:53 | |
by paying off the debts of Greece and, next, Italy, | 0:53:53 | 0:53:56 | |
and then Spain, and, in the end, France. | 0:53:56 | 0:53:59 | |
This is... That is not possible. | 0:53:59 | 0:54:00 | |
Look at Greece. You leave Greece on its own, it'll collapse. | 0:54:00 | 0:54:03 | |
Greece should leave the euro. | 0:54:03 | 0:54:05 | |
-Yes, the euro is too strong... -And Italy? And Spain? | 0:54:05 | 0:54:07 | |
-And probably France as well. -Portugal? | 0:54:07 | 0:54:09 | |
The euro is too strong for them, yes. | 0:54:09 | 0:54:11 | |
So, this is the end of the euro, then, isn't it, really, | 0:54:11 | 0:54:14 | |
that you are arguing for? | 0:54:14 | 0:54:15 | |
If countries like Germany say, | 0:54:15 | 0:54:16 | |
"We're not going to help countries with a weaker economy," that's it. | 0:54:16 | 0:54:19 | |
It's over, isn't it? | 0:54:19 | 0:54:21 | |
The euro is not good for the weaker countries, | 0:54:21 | 0:54:23 | |
so it is not for the economy. | 0:54:23 | 0:54:25 | |
The EU failed to deal, as a body, with the migrant crisis, | 0:54:25 | 0:54:30 | |
it has failed in the eurozone project. | 0:54:30 | 0:54:32 | |
"What is it good for?" you could be forgiven for asking. | 0:54:32 | 0:54:35 | |
We have to do better. | 0:54:35 | 0:54:37 | |
Europe remains indispensable. | 0:54:37 | 0:54:40 | |
Perhaps it is even more indispensable than ever before | 0:54:40 | 0:54:43 | |
in a globalised world. | 0:54:43 | 0:54:45 | |
So the only consequence of your description is, we have, | 0:54:45 | 0:54:48 | |
we really HAVE to do it better. | 0:54:48 | 0:54:50 | |
Do you see yourself as part of a bigger movement | 0:54:50 | 0:54:53 | |
in the rest of Europe? | 0:54:53 | 0:54:54 | |
Surely, yes. The voices are different, | 0:54:54 | 0:54:57 | |
but I think there is a basic line within all of those parties | 0:54:57 | 0:55:01 | |
which are now growing in several states, | 0:55:01 | 0:55:04 | |
stating that we don't want to give up our sovereignty. | 0:55:04 | 0:55:08 | |
And this is why we want to ask the people. | 0:55:08 | 0:55:10 | |
The danger of holding a referendum is, | 0:55:10 | 0:55:12 | |
even though you are not calling to leave the EU, | 0:55:12 | 0:55:15 | |
that is what the German people would vote for if you asked them. | 0:55:15 | 0:55:18 | |
-Yes. And if people... -And the whole thing could crumble. | 0:55:18 | 0:55:21 | |
Yes, but, you know, if the whole thing crumbles, | 0:55:21 | 0:55:24 | |
because the people want it to crumble, | 0:55:24 | 0:55:26 | |
then it should crumble. | 0:55:26 | 0:55:29 | |
MUSIC: Lacrimosa (Requiem) by Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart | 0:55:29 | 0:55:34 | |
Over the next few months, the EU is bracing itself for a battering. | 0:55:34 | 0:55:39 | |
Big election gains are predicted for | 0:55:39 | 0:55:41 | |
Eurosceptic, anti-Islam Geert Wilders in the Netherlands. | 0:55:41 | 0:55:46 | |
While in Italy, an early election could mean victory | 0:55:46 | 0:55:49 | |
for anti-euro Five Star. | 0:55:49 | 0:55:51 | |
We are going to lose one of the most magnificent constructions of peace | 0:56:04 | 0:56:08 | |
that mankind has ever done. | 0:56:08 | 0:56:10 | |
I don't care, I am old. | 0:56:10 | 0:56:12 | |
But I look at my children and I'm really scared. | 0:56:12 | 0:56:16 | |
In spring, France goes to the polls | 0:56:18 | 0:56:21 | |
with Marine Le Pen and her Front National standing strong. | 0:56:21 | 0:56:25 | |
Elections follow in Germany. | 0:56:25 | 0:56:28 | |
And all the while, | 0:56:28 | 0:56:30 | |
a potentially messy divorce with Brexit Britain is being negotiated. | 0:56:30 | 0:56:35 | |
It is no exaggeration to say that people in this town | 0:56:35 | 0:56:39 | |
who believe passionately in what they have built | 0:56:39 | 0:56:42 | |
over these last 60 years | 0:56:42 | 0:56:44 | |
really do believe that the whole project is under threat now. | 0:56:44 | 0:56:49 | |
We have something that the entire world looks as a miracle. | 0:56:49 | 0:56:54 | |
They look at the European Union as a miracle of history | 0:56:54 | 0:56:58 | |
and of political determination. | 0:56:58 | 0:57:00 | |
We have an enormous strength | 0:57:00 | 0:57:03 | |
and we spend our time talking about our own crisis. | 0:57:03 | 0:57:07 | |
We should be proud of what we achieved, | 0:57:07 | 0:57:10 | |
that your country, the United Kingdom, | 0:57:10 | 0:57:12 | |
and my country, Germany, were enemies in the war | 0:57:12 | 0:57:16 | |
and became friends. | 0:57:16 | 0:57:18 | |
It was a 2,000-year history of war. | 0:57:18 | 0:57:21 | |
And since seven decades, we have had no war. | 0:57:21 | 0:57:24 | |
In my eyes, this is a success story. | 0:57:24 | 0:57:28 | |
The power brokers of Europe face an unprecedented challenge. | 0:57:56 | 0:58:00 | |
For the EU, this is a battle to survive. | 0:58:00 | 0:58:04 | |
Now, Brussels doesn't exactly have a reputation for moving fast, | 0:58:04 | 0:58:08 | |
but something will have to give. | 0:58:08 | 0:58:11 | |
It could be that our national debate in Britain about Brexit | 0:58:11 | 0:58:15 | |
turns out to be an irrelevance. | 0:58:15 | 0:58:18 | |
Sooner or later, the EU as we know it | 0:58:18 | 0:58:21 | |
may no longer be there for us to leave. | 0:58:21 | 0:58:24 |