The End of the Road? The Truth about Lions


The End of the Road?

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The most iconic of all the big cats.

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Lions have attracted our attention throughout history.

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I'm Jonathan Scott and for me,

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the lion's the main reason I came to Africa over three decades ago.

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Human beings have painted, sculpted and photographed this big cat

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perhaps more than any other.

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Across the world and across our cultures, we've recorded the lion's story in considerable detail.

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But, for how much longer can their story continue?

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With perhaps as few as 25,000 lions left in Africa,

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could this be the final chapter?

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For over 30 years, the world's leading lion scientist Craig Packer

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has headed the Serengeti Lion Project.

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And he has a stark warning.

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The lion is in trouble.

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In the last dozen years, the lion population has declined anywhere between 20 and 50%.

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We're reaching a threshold where we might pass the point of no return.

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The lion is the uniquely social cat.

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The only one to live in prides.

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I want to understand what role it could be playing in their decline.

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Using the latest scientific research and by watching my pride's trials and tribulations,

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I want to reveal The Truth About Lions.

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From a balloon, the sight of Kenya's world-famous Maasai Mara Game Reserve is breathtaking.

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And it's just the northern tip of a vast, wild ecosystem

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of 25,000 square kilometres

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stretching all the way south into Serengeti National Park.

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I've spent much of my adult life here,

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recording the fascinating stories of its lions, leopards and cheetahs.

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One area in particular has always stood out for me as a hot-spot for wildlife -

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the Musiara Marsh.

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It's home to a family of lions I've come to know intimately...

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the Marsh pride.

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The fact that I've been able to watch this pride for so long

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is witness to what a great territory they have within this landscape

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and is the reason for their continued success,

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and right now we've got hundreds of thousands of wildebeest

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streaming into the area,

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so it's just an amazing place to be a lion.

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September.

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The time for the 28 members of the Marsh pride to feast.

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Their tolerance of human observers allows us to film them

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even under the cover of darkness.

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This is a sight that can only be seen with lions.

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A whole family of related animals,

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all part of the same pride all feeding together.

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This family living, this social way of life,

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makes lions the most conspicuous, the most often seen,

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of all the world's big cats.

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Far more regularly sighted than the traditionally secretive leopard.

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Yet there are, perhaps, 20 times as many wild leopards left on Earth as there are lions.

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The lion's familiarity masks a dark truth.

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A truth brought home to me when I met the world's foremost lion scientist Craig Packer

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in Tanzania, by a rather unusual slide-show.

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This is amongst the oldest art in the world.

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Projected on a rock, these slides, of 35,000-year-old cave paintings

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from Southern France, depict lions in incredible detail

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and show that humans have had a surprisingly close relationship

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with this particular cat for millennia.

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When I first saw these paintings I was profoundly moved.

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It gave me chills.

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And to see these paintings by fellow lionologists from 35,000 years ago

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made me realise that maybe we're not so eccentric

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watching these animals, that this is something that's very deep in our nature.

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But the truth they reveal is just how widespread lions once were.

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The lion had a representation across Europe.

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It went across Alaska, across Asia.

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At one point the lion was the most widely-distributed mammal across the entire planet.

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Today, lions are a species in frightening decline,

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restricted now almost exclusively to Africa.

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Craig and his team at the Serengeti Lion Project have spent

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over 30 years investigating the lion,

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gaining a unique scientific insight into its world.

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A world which Craig is only too aware is shrinking.

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If you look at where the last remaining large populations of

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lions are found, Kruger Park in South Africa, the Okavango in Botswana,

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and then four places here in Tanzania

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and between those half-dozen populations, there's probably half,

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at least, maybe more, of all the lions left in Africa.

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The Marsh pride, my lions, are part of one of these populations -

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the Serengeti Mara population.

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To understand the risks they face and the causes of the lion's decline

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I need to see life from a lion's perspective.

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The unique perspective of the only social-living cat.

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Lions need to be together.

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The lion's historic success shows that pride-living has been a good strategy.

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Now, through watching the Marsh pride with fresh eyes

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and armed with Craig's wider research,

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I want to discover if the lion's sociality

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may be contributing to its downfall.

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Having studied them closely for many years, I know them all as individuals.

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Right now the pride consists of a core of adult females -

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White-Eye, Bibi and Lispy.

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There's some new arrivals who,

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at just three months old, are the pride's future.

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And finally the two pride males,

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who have been with this pride for almost three years.

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But whose fortunes, right now, differ widely.

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Romeo is about nine or ten years old. He's a male in his prime.

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Marking ownership of the territory

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and obviously showing interest towards in-season females.

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Looking to father more offspring.

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His buddy, the other pride male, is Clawed...

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..who at 12 years old is showing his age.

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At best, Clawed could perhaps reach 14 years old.

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But that's looking increasingly unlikely.

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He's obviously in poor condition.

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His teeth are worn down

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and he's struggling to get enough food at times.

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Yet, without him, Romeo would find it almost impossible

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to hold onto the pride and raise any more offspring.

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In the wild, males die much younger than females,

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mostly through violent encounters with other males -

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males who want to take over their territory.

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Clawed is at risk,

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even from the lion's own prey.

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Buffalo are big animals.

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At almost 700 kilos, they're over three times the weight of a lion.

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Lions and buffalo are mortal enemies and buffalo will actively chase lions.

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If they discover cubs, or a lion is unable to get out of the way,

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they'll kill them.

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The pride begin to move away, to protect the cubs.

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But, old and weak, Clawed has to try a different tactic.

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Hide and seek initially works well.

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But the buffalo's keen sense of smell eventually prevails.

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Clawed has a bad leg,

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but still manages to muster up enough energy to run for his life.

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He only just manages to reach safety in time.

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Hopefully, the buffalo will lose interest.

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In situations like this, the pride focus on keeping the cubs safe.

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Adult lions must fend for themselves,

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and there's little chance the others will come to Clawed's help.

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Eventually Clawed is able to rejoin the pride.

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He's had a lucky escape.

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I've seen lions killed by buffalo,

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indeed, many lions die as a result of a violent attack.

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Sometimes by buffalo, but more often at the jaws of other lions.

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Clawed is clearly vulnerable not just to attack,

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but also from a more silent threat.

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The threat of disease.

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Most lions die a violent death, but it's very easy to forget the role that disease can play.

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And of course the danger in a social animal such as this

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is that it could spread amongst the whole group.

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Clawed's poor condition

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makes him potentially the most vulnerable to disease.

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Disease is something I've seen affect individual lion prides like the Marsh pride.

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But just how dramatically it can affect whole populations

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is something Craig had a chance to discover in 1994.

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At the beginning of 1994, various people saw lions suddenly

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with really strange disease symptoms that had never been seen before.

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The most famous case was a male who had convulsions,

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like a horrible, horrible seizure.

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Turned out that this animal was infected with canine distemper

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and it infected about 95% of the lions within the Serengeti.

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It devastated prides.

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And was obviously a risk to the whole lion population.

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Canine distemper virus is a disease of the nervous system.

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It more usually affects domestic dogs

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and is closely related to measles in humans.

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But it had been spread into the park by hyenas who regularly move between

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the surrounding rural villages and the park's centre.

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The huge lion deaths in 1994 were followed by a similar event in 2001.

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Initially, it seemed canine distemper virus or CDV was to blame.

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But the project had been keeping blood samples for a number of years, which when analysed

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showed that there had been other outbreaks of CDV that didn't result in any lions dying.

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We've had seven distemper outbreaks over the last 20 years now

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and only two have had that high degree of mortality.

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There was something else going on.

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The team looked again at the two outbreaks that had

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resulted in so many lion deaths and noticed something in common.

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They both occurred at the end of a severe drought.

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The herbivores like wildebeest and buffalo

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struggled to find enough to eat and were themselves weakened by disease.

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The lions suddenly had what seemed like a free lunch

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with this excess of buffalo that were sick and very easy to catch.

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But there's no such thing as a free lunch.

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The buffalo, the lions' preferred prey,

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had many more ticks than usual and those ticks spread

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from the dying buffalo to the lions

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carrying a dangerous malaria-like parasite called babesia.

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Now, babesia in itself is something the lions can ordinarily handle,

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but this was an exceptional dose of babesia, combined with distemper

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and the distemper is like a short, sharp bout of AIDS.

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They're immuno-suppressed, allowing the babesia to overwhelm them and that's actually what killed them.

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Buffalo are the lion's preferred prey precisely because they're large

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and can feed a whole pride.

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But in this instance,

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being social exposed whole prides to disease at once.

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The disease outbreak had a catastrophic effect on the lion population.

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We saw hundreds of losses in the Serengeti, and we saw losses here

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in the Mara in the Marsh pride.

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But what was interesting was, it didn't take that long for the lion population to bounce back again.

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In fact, it only took four years to recover to pre-disease levels.

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This is the flip-side to being social.

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Given the right habitat, lion prides breed very successfully and rapidly.

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But more frequent droughts in the future

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could trigger more regular outbreaks of disease

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and might not allow lion prides time to recover,

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potentially decimating an otherwise healthy lion population.

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The role of climate change in affecting lion numbers

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shouldn't be underestimated.

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The impact of climate change is likely to increase in these kind of areas.

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We'll see more droughts and we'll see more floods

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and that is likely to act as a trigger for these outbreaks of epidemic diseases.

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Now another perhaps surprising way in which climate change can impact

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on the lion population, is in the way they look.

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Male lions have a striking feature

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that marks them out from lionesses and all other big cats.

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The mane.

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It develops during puberty and attains its full glory

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just as the male reaches his reproductive prime.

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But it carries a heavy price tag.

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All mammals need to maintain a constant body temperature

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regardless of their surroundings.

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But male lions like Clawed and Romeo have a problem.

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Their big, bushy manes are like a jumper, one they can't take off.

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Viewed through a thermal camera, the mane's contrasting colour

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shows how much warmer the mane is than the rest of the lion.

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In the hottest parts of Africa, this burden is simply too much to bear.

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And the lions here are different.

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Craig's data clearly shows that male lions growing up in hotter habitats

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tend to grow shorter, thinner and lighter manes

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than those growing up in cooler climes.

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So climate change could eventually alter the lion's look.

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But ultimately, does it matter what colour the mane is?

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And, if they're such a burden, why grow a mane in the first place?

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Craig and his team had a hunch

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that the mane might have a profound meaning in lions' social lives.

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To set about decoding what that meaning might be,

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they enlisted a somewhat surprising research tool.

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We had these dummies constructed and shipped out here,

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where we could present alternatives to the lions.

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So we'd find a wild lion, we'd set out two dummies at a time, with contrasting manes.

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One might be dark, one would be light, or one would be short and one would be long.

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OK, Fabio - you're on!

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And the females clearly preferred the darker manes.

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It turns out that black-maned males,

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they're actually superior males.

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They have higher testosterone levels, they live longer,

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they're more likely to survive from being wounded

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and their cubs have much better survival.

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So a female making a choice would do much better

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to have her children fathered by one of the black-maned males.

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The mane, it turns out, plays a huge part in lion society.

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The ability to grow a big, dark mane is a sign of fitness.

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It's an honest signal that you're strong enough to carry the burden

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of all that extra heat stress - it shows you have good genes.

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And that's why, in nine out of ten cases, lionesses prefer dark-maned males.

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In the Marsh pride, Romeo is the female's favourite right now

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with his dark, luxuriant mane.

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But his mane won't always look so grand.

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The aging Clawed,

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two years older than Romeo, has a less impressive mane.

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But right now, with plenty of food available,

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he's still at least managing to maintain a reasonable head of hair.

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The females don't take too much notice,

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but it's still a powerful signal to other males.

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The mane allows rival males to quickly assess each other's strengths and avoid direct conflict.

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Fights between males often lead to injury and are best avoided.

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Just the sight of Romeo and Clawed together

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will be a powerful deterrent

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to any new males lurking on the edges of Marsh pride territory.

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There's no doubt that the mane plays a significant role in lion society.

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But the very thing that makes them attractive to females

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and wards off other males also puts them at risk.

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In the last century, tens of thousands of lions were killed by big-game hunters.

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And that had an effect on what sorts of lions were being seen.

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When I first arrived in the Mara in the 1970s, it was rare to see those big black-maned lions

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such as Clawed and Romeo, who are so essential to maintaining the integrity of a pride's territory.

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But in 1977, the Kenyan government decided to ban all trophy-hunting and the sale of wildlife products.

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When they did that, the male lion population began to recover again.

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But trophy-hunting still continues in many parts of Africa today, as shown in this simulation.

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In Tanzania, we're the biggest country for lion trophy-hunting in all of Africa,

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and the hunters have access to more than seven times as much land as the national parks.

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This vast amount of hunting land often surrounds protected areas,

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the parks, and acts as a buffer zone between people and wildlife.

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It may seem ironic, but some believe trophy-hunting of lions could play an important role

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in protecting their habitat and ultimately, them as a species.

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The human population is growing at 4% annually in Tanzania,

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so there's increasing pressure to convert the land to agriculture

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and human settlement. Ultimately, it all comes down to money.

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There are many areas in Africa that will never be attractive

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to photo tourism, that do provide lion habitat.

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Trophy-hunting could help justify that set aside, so that the land

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is not converted to agriculture. It's not lost to wildlife.

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But perhaps most important is to recognise the limited amount of revenue

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that so far has been collected from trophy-hunting.

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Shooting a lion is surprisingly inexpensive.

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For North American hunters who might want to shoot big-horned sheep in certain areas of the US,

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they might pay over a 100,000 for the opportunity.

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Lions, as a species, are far less common than big-horned sheep

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and yet a client can go out and get a licence to shoot a lion

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for less than 10,000.

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In Tanzania, tourism to National Parks generates four times more revenue than hunting.

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There's a real danger that if areas set aside for hunting

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can't generate enough income, they'll be converted to human settlement.

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For trophy-hunting of lions to be an effective conservation tool,

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it first needs to generate vastly more income than it does currently.

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GUNSHOT

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Secondly, the choice of lion to kill is critical.

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An adult male with a large impressive mane

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is the most sought-after trophy, like those of Clawed and Romeo.

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It may seem that hunting a lion affects just that one animal.

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But the consequences are much more significant.

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We have to keep in mind that the lion does have a very complex social system.

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Unlike most trophy species

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where the male only meets the female once for mating,

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and has nothing to do with tending to the offspring,

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the pride male is a devoted father.

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He needs to continue to be around until his young are safely raised.

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So if a hunter comes in and removes an adult male from a pride,

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he'll render his offspring and the rest of the pride vulnerable

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to a take over by a new set of males.

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If the new males are coming into a pride while there's still dependent young,

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from the preceding set of males, all hell breaks loose.

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If for instance, Clawed and Romeo were killed now,

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new males would kill all cubs under nine months old

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to bring the females back into season and give themselves a chance

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of raising their own offspring.

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The mothers of the older cubs would move away to protect them

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and the pride would be fractured.

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Regularly removing pride males destroys the stability

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required to successfully raise the next generation.

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The hunting industry has to be a fair player and recognise

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that past practices have been inadequate and it's time for careful oversight,

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this is a very rare and precious species

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that must be hunted in a very careful and sustainable manner.

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The impact of trophy-hunting can be minimised.

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First, it's important to establish the age of the male lion to be shot.

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Something hunters could do by looking closely at their quarry.

0:33:210:33:26

I've been keeping records on the Marsh pride for so long,

0:33:270:33:30

and know the nine sub-adults with the pride are about three years old.

0:33:300:33:34

The reason I know that is that I saw them as young cubs

0:33:340:33:37

when they emerged from the den at about two months old.

0:33:370:33:40

But if I didn't know how old they were, I could use a method developed by Craig and his team

0:33:400:33:46

which relies on the fact that young lions,

0:33:460:33:48

such sub-adults have pink noses till they're four,

0:33:480:33:51

but after that time, and you can just see it here.

0:33:510:33:55

This is a five-year-old lion, black pigment begins to cover the nose.

0:33:550:34:00

So his nose is half-black, half-pink - five years old.

0:34:000:34:03

If you look at this male, a previous pride male, his nose is black.

0:34:030:34:08

He's nearer ten years old and you can see his teeth are worn.

0:34:080:34:11

So, if you don't know the age of a lion, using Craig's method,

0:34:110:34:15

you can get a pretty good estimate.

0:34:150:34:17

The age of a lion is crucial.

0:34:190:34:22

On average, male lions are four years old when they take over a pride

0:34:220:34:27

and remain in control for roughly two years before being evicted by younger rivals.

0:34:270:34:33

Time enough to raise just one group of young.

0:34:350:34:39

Hunting male lions only over six years of age minimises the risk

0:34:430:34:48

of killing males before they've had a chance to breed.

0:34:480:34:52

Or whilst they're a father to young, dependant cubs.

0:34:520:34:56

Clawed and Romeo are both significantly older than six.

0:34:560:35:01

In their time in charge, they've already fathered a group of nine three-year-old lions -

0:35:010:35:07

who are now nearly fully grown - as well as this second group of younger cubs.

0:35:070:35:13

The impact of one, or both of our males demise

0:35:180:35:22

would consign the youngest cubs to a violent death by incoming males.

0:35:220:35:26

It would be tragic, but Clawed and Romeo have already assured their genetic success

0:35:280:35:33

in the raising of their first brood.

0:35:330:35:36

Clawed and Romeo have been pride males here

0:35:380:35:41

for longer than any previous males I've recorded.

0:35:410:35:45

They are literally living on borrowed time.

0:35:450:35:48

New, younger, males are lurking on the edges of Marsh pride territory

0:35:530:35:58

waiting for an opportunity to challenge the holders.

0:35:580:36:02

HE BELLOWS

0:36:020:36:05

Males outside a pride normally don't roar,

0:36:110:36:14

to avoid unnecessary attention.

0:36:140:36:17

HE BELLOWS

0:36:170:36:19

But these two youngsters clearly consider the Marsh pride's territory is theirs for the taking!

0:36:260:36:32

Much of what's happening with the Marsh pride right now is occurring after dark.

0:37:050:37:11

One of the classic sounds of the African night is the sound of lions roaring.

0:37:110:37:15

LIONS ROAR

0:37:150:37:17

SNARLING ROARS

0:37:210:37:24

HE ROARS

0:37:240:37:26

The lion's roar advertises their ownership of a territory.

0:37:340:37:38

HE ROARS

0:37:380:37:40

Work by the Serengeti Lion Project showed that, as a pride roars,

0:37:450:37:50

other lions hearing it can count how many lions are calling.

0:37:500:37:54

The project also showed that the roar is directly related to body size.

0:38:010:38:07

Being up to 50% larger than females,

0:38:070:38:09

the males' roar is louder and deeper than the lionesses'.

0:38:090:38:14

Though Clawed is a shadow of his former self, his continuing ability to roar with the pride

0:38:170:38:22

is helping to keep potential invaders at bay - for now.

0:38:220:38:27

HE ROARS

0:38:270:38:31

Life for all lions is a numbers game.

0:38:420:38:45

Outnumbering the opposition is key to success.

0:38:450:38:48

When there's just one male voice left in the Marsh pride,

0:38:500:38:54

it will be noticed by other males in the area

0:38:540:38:57

and the odds will switch in their favour.

0:38:570:39:00

The Marsh pride's social life is like a feline soap opera.

0:39:220:39:26

But it's clear that, for lions, their unique social lifestyle

0:39:330:39:40

makes for unique pressures from factors such as disease outbreaks and trophy-hunting.

0:39:400:39:46

Both have affected the Marsh pride in the past and could do again.

0:39:460:39:51

But, perhaps the biggest pressure on lion prides comes from the landscape in which they live.

0:39:560:40:02

The landscape which Craig and his team have shown to be crucial to the evolution of the pride.

0:40:040:40:11

By looking at the breeding success of known prides,

0:40:130:40:16

the team discovered that those holding territories

0:40:160:40:19

centred around river confluences

0:40:190:40:21

were the largest and most successful.

0:40:210:40:23

Territories that contain permanent water, shade and cover in which to raise cubs.

0:40:290:40:35

Only powerful prides were able to defend these much sought-after territories

0:40:380:40:42

from other lions and so ensure their long-term genetic success.

0:40:420:40:47

It stands to reason then, that changes to the very driving force

0:40:540:40:58

behind the evolution of lion prides would have a huge effect on their population.

0:40:580:41:03

And there's no doubt the lion's landscape has changed dramatically in recent years.

0:41:050:41:10

A striking example affects the lions of Tarangire National Park in Tanzania.

0:41:130:41:19

The park covers nearly 1,000 square miles,

0:41:260:41:30

bigger than the whole of the Mara.

0:41:300:41:33

But unlike the Maasai Mara, which is connected to the vast Serengeti, Tarangire is isolated.

0:41:350:41:40

A real problem for the park's population of approximately 200 lions.

0:41:420:41:48

The park and the surrounding area is home to the Tarangire Lion Project

0:41:520:41:58

and it's run by Bernard Kissui.

0:41:580:42:00

One of Tanzania's most respected ecologists,

0:42:020:42:05

he's noticed a big change in the landscape over the years.

0:42:050:42:09

Traditionally here the indigenous people have always been the Maasai,

0:42:090:42:16

and they are keeping livestock,

0:42:160:42:19

but increasingly also we are seeing a slow change

0:42:190:42:23

from pure livestock-keeping, pastoralism, to agro-pastoralism.

0:42:230:42:28

So more and more people now need to you know keep some livestock but also, grow some crops.

0:42:280:42:34

The increase in farmland outside the park is reducing the space for both lions and their natural prey.

0:42:380:42:45

The park boundaries were drawn up in 1970, but over the course of Bernard's study

0:42:470:42:52

he's discovered that about three quarters of the lions in the park

0:42:520:42:56

actually leave its protection regularly throughout the year.

0:42:560:43:01

And that brings them into danger.

0:43:010:43:03

Lions go out, attack livestock, people retaliate.

0:43:060:43:11

You know, they go out, find out where the lion is and kill it.

0:43:110:43:15

Over the years, we have been collecting this information

0:43:170:43:21

and you'll be surprised to hear

0:43:210:43:23

more than 30 lions sometimes get killed every year.

0:43:230:43:28

And that has got huge implications to the population.

0:43:300:43:33

With a total population of just 200 lions in the park,

0:43:350:43:39

having 30 of them killed in retaliation for livestock predation annually is significant.

0:43:390:43:45

To stand even the remotest chance of maintaining lions in the park,

0:43:540:43:58

Bernard had to win over the local community.

0:43:580:44:01

THEY CONVERSE IN SWAHILI

0:44:030:44:06

'We are now trying to convince the pastoralists keeping livestock to adopt new ways.

0:44:080:44:15

'So, one of the things we're actually testing, is the use of chain-link fences.'

0:44:170:44:22

Traditional cattle stockades, or "bomas" are, more usually constructed from thorn bushes

0:44:260:44:33

but the chain-link fences offer better protection.

0:44:330:44:37

We've been working on this particular strategy for about now two or three years.

0:44:370:44:41

We have almost 60 bomas right now that have been enforced and we've been monitoring them.

0:44:410:44:48

Where chain-link fencing has been installed,

0:44:510:44:54

there's been no further instances of lions taking cattle.

0:44:540:44:57

And hence the motivation for retaliation is lower.

0:44:570:45:01

But changes to the landscape outside the park affect the lion population on a bigger scale.

0:45:070:45:14

Reducing prime lion habitat and reducing the number of lions potentially to zero.

0:45:160:45:22

Just as in Tarangire,

0:45:370:45:38

for the Marsh pride, the changes outside the Mara reserve

0:45:380:45:43

could have an effect on their success as a pride.

0:45:430:45:46

The Marsh lions are a boundary pride, as I'd put it, because if you look at my map here you can see

0:45:520:45:58

that the reserve boundary cuts through the top of their territory and that boundary

0:45:580:46:02

is very close to here, it's just up the top there I can see cattle and Maasai just beyond it.

0:46:020:46:09

The boundary to the Mara, like most national parks or reserves in Africa, isn't marked by fences

0:46:120:46:18

and the area beyond it has changed dramatically in my time watching this pride.

0:46:180:46:23

The Maasai population here has grown enormously in the last 30 years.

0:46:250:46:31

But, unlike in Tarangire,

0:46:350:46:39

the Marsh pride are bordered on just one side by an increasing human population.

0:46:390:46:44

The Mara reserve is part of the much more extensive Serengeti Mara system.

0:46:460:46:53

And this is critical.

0:46:530:46:54

It's one of the six large areas that Craig Packer believes might be the last stronghold of the lion.

0:46:560:47:03

It's so large that the migration of two million wildebeest

0:47:050:47:09

can be completed entirely within it.

0:47:090:47:11

And the migration brings other animals too.

0:47:190:47:24

Nomadic male lions in search of their own pride follow the herds.

0:47:260:47:31

Lions that could bring new diseases.

0:47:330:47:36

Or in taking over an existing pride, cause the death of young cubs.

0:47:360:47:42

For now, the Marsh males still control their territory.

0:47:480:47:52

And, at least in Romeo's case, still actively attempting to sire new offspring.

0:47:540:47:59

Clawed, in his poor condition, can only watch from a distance.

0:48:030:48:07

For male lions life is a race against the inevitable.

0:48:170:48:22

Their time as a pride male is limited.

0:48:250:48:28

And they need to make hay while the sun shines.

0:48:280:48:32

They will, ultimately, be challenged.

0:48:350:48:38

Challenged by new males from far and wide.

0:48:380:48:42

The consequences of new males taking over a pride can be catastrophic in the short-term.

0:48:460:48:53

But it's a vital part of a healthy lion population, mixing the gene pool.

0:48:560:49:01

The situation without an influx of new males is far worse in the long-term.

0:49:010:49:07

It's a situation faced by the lions of Tanzania's Ngorongoro Crater.

0:49:160:49:21

The area for which Craig and his team have the most lion data.

0:49:290:49:33

I travelled with Craig into this vast volcanic caldera.

0:49:360:49:40

It's one of the lion hot-spots of East Africa.

0:49:470:49:50

The prey here is resident all year round

0:49:540:49:58

and this natural cauldron once supported the highest density of lions anywhere in Africa.

0:49:580:50:04

But not any more.

0:50:080:50:10

It's a direct result of the lack of new males

0:50:120:50:15

able to enter the crater from areas outside.

0:50:150:50:19

In 1959, there were 8,000 people that lived in the Ngorongoro

0:50:190:50:22

conservation area and now there are 60,000.

0:50:220:50:27

There's just so many Maasai in close proximity around the wall

0:50:270:50:30

that there's a barrier to migration.

0:50:300:50:32

Now we have had a series of disease outbreaks the last few years,

0:50:340:50:38

the lions seem more susceptible to disease than before,

0:50:380:50:41

and ordinarily we'd expect males to come in to help repopulate. No longer.

0:50:410:50:48

This lack of new males has led to a reduction in genetic diversity

0:50:510:50:56

amongst the lion population on the Crater floor.

0:50:560:50:59

A result of narrow inbreeding between the lions that remain.

0:50:590:51:03

So who are we looking at here?

0:51:160:51:17

Well, this female comes from the Mungi pride.

0:51:170:51:21

The male comes from the other side of the Crater floor

0:51:210:51:24

and even though he didn't know her growing up

0:51:240:51:27

they do have many links on their family tree,

0:51:270:51:30

so they're about as closely related as half-siblings.

0:51:300:51:34

But as lions to look at the effect of this inbreeding isn't immediately obvious.

0:51:430:51:49

When I look at these lions,

0:51:490:51:51

I'm looking at healthy, vigorous animals,

0:51:510:51:53

I mean that's a big male, the female looks in great shape,

0:51:530:51:56

so really, how much impact is inbreeding having on these lions?

0:51:560:52:01

They look great, but they get such a high level of nutrition

0:52:010:52:04

down here, there's always food available for them.

0:52:040:52:07

The things that are harming them are all happening inside their bodies.

0:52:070:52:11

We're seeing signs, and have seen for some time,

0:52:150:52:18

of reduced fertility in the males, they have higher levels

0:52:180:52:22

of sperm abnormality, they have lower testosterone

0:52:220:52:26

and their immune systems seem to be compromised now.

0:52:260:52:28

This population seems to be exceptionally sensitive to infectious disease.

0:52:280:52:33

From a high of 120 lions in the 1980s,

0:52:350:52:38

the Crater population today numbers less than 60.

0:52:380:52:43

Ngorongoro reveals the problems for lions in small populations.

0:52:470:52:52

If lions are to survive here they'll need human management,

0:52:540:52:58

introducing new lions with new genes.

0:52:580:53:02

But this is difficult - lion prides don't tolerate outsiders.

0:53:050:53:11

The financial cost is large and only for small, valuable populations

0:53:110:53:15

like the Crater, where tourists expect to see lions

0:53:150:53:19

will it be cost-effective to manage so intensively.

0:53:190:53:22

The Marsh pride are, for now,

0:53:390:53:41

thankfully still part of a much larger, natural, lion population.

0:53:410:53:47

That of the Mara Serengeti system -

0:53:470:53:49

perhaps the world's most famous African reserves.

0:53:490:53:53

This journey has shown me how fortunate I've been

0:54:010:54:05

in being able to watch this one pride for so many years.

0:54:050:54:09

From my own experience,

0:54:130:54:15

their immediate future can almost be predicted.

0:54:150:54:18

As the wildebeest migration heads south, there'll be less prey,

0:54:230:54:26

resulting in more competition within the pride for food.

0:54:260:54:31

Clawed is likely to lose out and his condition will worsen.

0:54:350:54:40

But his, and buddy Romeo's success has already been assured

0:54:420:54:47

in the form of their nine almost fully-grown offspring.

0:54:470:54:51

New males in the area will challenge this ageing pair

0:54:540:54:59

and ultimately win.

0:54:590:55:02

Just how soon they do

0:55:020:55:04

will decide the fate of the youngest cubs in the pride.

0:55:040:55:08

A new chapter in the Marsh pride's story will begin.

0:55:080:55:12

But the lion's story as a whole may be closer to an end

0:55:150:55:19

than I'd previously imagined.

0:55:190:55:21

I think the animal is close to being restricted

0:55:230:55:27

to maybe three or four places.

0:55:270:55:30

The Serengeti is so famous,

0:55:310:55:33

it's hard to believe that anyone will let that die,

0:55:330:55:36

parts of the Selous can be protected,

0:55:360:55:38

Kruger National Park in South Africa is fenced.

0:55:380:55:42

The Okavango is in the middle of a desert,

0:55:420:55:45

so those four areas maybe the sole repository of healthy lions

0:55:450:55:50

in the 22nd century.

0:55:500:55:52

It's a stark situation for an animal whose success once rivalled our own -

0:56:040:56:10

the seconnd most widespread land mammal on Earth.

0:56:100:56:13

For lions, social living has made them especially vulnerable

0:56:160:56:20

to disease spread from our domestic animals.

0:56:200:56:23

Hunting individual male lions for trophies can all too easily

0:56:230:56:28

have devastating impacts on entire prides.

0:56:280:56:32

GUNSHOT ECHOES

0:56:320:56:34

And as territory is key to the lion's social way of life,

0:56:350:56:39

it's becoming obvious that healthy lion populations

0:56:390:56:43

can only exist where large areas of suitable habitat can be found.

0:56:430:56:48

Habitat that, throughout our long association with the lion,

0:56:510:56:56

has also been coveted by humans.

0:56:560:56:59

But, living with this large, dangerous, social predator

0:56:590:57:04

has been difficult and still is.

0:57:040:57:07

Everybody hates lions.

0:57:070:57:09

Pastoralists hate lions, people in man-eating areas

0:57:090:57:13

would just as soon there were never any more lions ever again.

0:57:130:57:17

And I often find it surprising that we somehow expect Africa

0:57:170:57:22

to bear the brunt of living with a really difficult species.

0:57:220:57:27

Seems to me that's the world's responsibility.

0:57:270:57:30

If the lion was lost, that's something that belongs to all of us,

0:57:300:57:34

it's part of our whole history.

0:57:340:57:36

There's a big irony here.

0:57:450:57:47

The lion's uniquely social way of life, which to me makes them

0:57:480:57:52

so fascinating, evolved as a defence against others of their own kind.

0:57:520:57:58

But the truth about lions is that their biggest threat is no longer other lions...

0:58:060:58:13

it's us.

0:58:130:58:15

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