22/03/2012 Daily Politics


22/03/2012

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Afternoon, folks. Welcome to The Daily Politics. So Wallace and

:00:41.:00:44.

Grommit are happy, but what do Victor Meldrew and his Missus make

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of it all. It's the morning after the night before and everyone's

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asking, is Boy George Robin Hood? Or the artful dodger with a grudge

:00:52.:00:57.

against pensioners? Yes, not all the newspaper headlines made pretty

:00:57.:01:01.

reading for the Chancellor this morning. Most have picked up on the

:01:01.:01:10.

so-called granny tax. One of the few bits of the Budget not leaked,

:01:10.:01:13.

there could be a lesson there. "Mugged", exclaimed one paper.

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We'll have all the analysis. Chancellor's confident the economy

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will avoid a double dip recession. We'll be looking in more detail at

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the economic picture and asking what business makes of it all.

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Osborne announced yesterday that we'll be saving over �2 billion in

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Afghanistan. But what should our exit strategy be? And we'll be

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talking to one army officer who wants to swap his colonel cap for a

:01:38.:01:48.
:01:48.:01:49.

All that in the next hour, and with us for quite a lot of it, to digest,

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to cogitate and to mull over the budget we have a panel of the very

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best. A kaleidoscopic panel, no less, of different political hues.

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The Conservative back bencher, Elizabeth Truss, the Shadow

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Economic Secretary to the Treasury, Owen Smith, and the Liberal

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Democrat Treasury Spokesman, Stephen Williams. Welcome to you

:02:10.:02:18.

all. Now, without further ado, let's get down to the Budget. In a

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:02:28.:02:28.

moment, we'll be looking at the detail. But first let's cast an eye

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over the post-Budget morning round of political interviews. If you

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take the changes this government has made, the tax changes we are

:02:36.:02:39.

talking about plus the increase in the basic state pension, they will

:02:39.:02:42.

be better off under this government. The policies of this government

:02:42.:02:47.

have made them better off because of a really big increase in the

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basic state pension. People don't have to take my word for it, and a

:02:50.:02:54.

couple of weeks they will see the pension come in and can see for it

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themselves. They have put the pension up because inflation has

:02:58.:03:02.

been run high over the past year. The pension is going up because

:03:02.:03:06.

dual is going up and food prices are going up. Pensions are worse

:03:06.:03:10.

off because of a tax rise on pensioners. Pensioners will also

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pay the extra fuel duty this August, the higher alcohol duty. There is

:03:17.:03:21.

no granny tax. No pensioner will have any money taken away from them

:03:21.:03:27.

that they currently have coming to them. They will be getting pension

:03:27.:03:33.

increases in April. That will be �5.30 a week on the state pension.

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Don't believe this new tag that has been coined in some of the papers,

:03:37.:03:43.

there is not a granny tax. There is a change in the future in the

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allowance is affecting a minority of pensioners, and for them, net,

:03:47.:03:51.

there will be better off, because the pension gives far more than the

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changing of the threshold takes away.

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Your breakfast table this morning. -- that is what was being said over

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your breakfast table this morning. For what will this Budget be

:04:06.:04:11.

remembered? I think it will be remembered as a Budget for work,

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for business, for making Britain competitive again. Before this

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Budget we had the highest income tax top rate in the G20. I think

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that showed business was not open in Britain, that we would not get

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investment into our country, other thing that is a vital change.

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Budget for business? I think it is important, a Budget for jobs, for

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getting more people into employment. I think raising the threshold on

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low earners will really help, give more people an incentive to work.

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am going to hold back until later. Owen Smith, what do you think this

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Budget will be remembered for? things. It will be remembered for

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giving a big tax bung to the wealthiest 1% in our society.

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�10,000 per man and woman, earning over �150,000. It will be

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remembered for paying for that by introducing effectively a stealth

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tax on pensioners. And the Lib Dem, Stephen Williams. I am a keen

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student of studying budgets, back to my degree in economic history.

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At Bristol University. There's a university, there? There is, one of

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the best in the country, I can assure you. This will be remembered

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for one of the biggest tax breaks in a generation. For 30 years, the

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largest rise in allowance, and a tax cut of over �500 for 24 million

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people. Finally, on the leaks, I understand the Speaker has allowed

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Chris Leslie to debate this morning. Do you think the Chancellor will

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have learned that if in the end, he looks everything except the bit

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that is controversial and is going to cause problems, he will end up

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getting the headlines he deserves. Which is what he got this morning.

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I think what we have seen under the coalition is a real debate about

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the kind of measures that should be in the Budget. Income versus wealth

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taxes, consumption tax, how do we make our country more competitive.

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I am talking about the leaks, why didn't he leak the bad bits as well

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as the good bits? I don't necessarily think... I guess it is

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an improvement on the day when Gordon Brown would not Lee go to

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the Prime Minister what was in the Budget. -- would not leak to the

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Prime Minister. We saw an arms race between these two last week, trying

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to get out of their version of events, until they got to the point

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where there was nothing left to leak apart from the bad news.

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will give you the last word since your side was doing most of the

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leaking. I think it is public negotiation. What the blue bits

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were in the Budget and the yellow birds... This is coalition politics

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and we better get used to it -- the yellow bits. Not the way that

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coalitions work in Germany, Italy, Sweden or Norway, but that is

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another issue. It is measures over your money and mine that have been

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creating the headlines. It's the first thing we look for,

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those all-important tax measures. Of course, the world's worst kept

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secret was that the top rate tax for those earning over �150,000

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will be cut from 50p to 45p from April 2013. The measure that both

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parties in the coalition are keen to take credit for is the rise in

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the personal income tax allowance to �9,205. The higher rate tax

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threshold, which is the level of salary you need to earn before

:07:45.:07:48.

being drawn into the 40% tax band, is to be reduced from �42,475 to

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�41,450, and there's going to be a new stamp duty rate of 7% for homes

:07:52.:07:56.

worth over 2 million, as well as new measures to clamp down on tax

:07:56.:08:06.
:08:06.:08:06.

avoidance. And finally there's the controversial measure that's been

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dubbed, granny tax. The extra tax allowance pensioners currently

:08:08.:08:11.

receive will be frozen until the personal allowances of those in

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work catch up, and the allowance will be scrapped altogether for new

:08:14.:08:20.

pensioners from 2013. Let's get the thoughts of Andrew Lilico from the

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Institute of Economic Affairs, who's enjoying the sun in

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Westminster. The headlines say it all, this doesn't look pretty for

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George Osborne, with his granny I think the most important measure

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is the big rise in personal allowance. I think we have seen

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quite a profound shift politically, from a time in the late 1980s

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through to three or four years ago, went whenever you thought of

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cutting taxes and particularly income taxes, you were going to be

:08:55.:08:59.

cutting the basic rate. We had shifted decisively to a concert

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where if you want to cut income tax you raised people out of tax

:09:03.:09:07.

altogether by increasing the personal allowance. I think the

:09:07.:09:11.

government will be remembered for deficit-reduction and a rise in

:09:11.:09:15.

personal allowance. Do you agree that George Osborne did the right

:09:15.:09:20.

thing in terms of freezing allowances for pensioners? I think

:09:20.:09:23.

it is philosophically indefensible to have a lower tax rates for

:09:23.:09:26.

pensioners. I think they were introduced in a very different time

:09:26.:09:30.

when there were not really state pensions in the 1920s, when these

:09:30.:09:35.

ideas first came in. I think they are long obsolete and there was a

:09:35.:09:40.

very strong argument for increasing the basic state pension and also

:09:40.:09:44.

means-tested pension allowances, and taking away these tax

:09:44.:09:47.

allowances, which is what they have done. The mistake that the

:09:47.:09:51.

Chancellor made was not to face up for that but to bury it away in the

:09:51.:09:59.

detail. Looking at what he has done, there is a sort of unspoken rule,

:09:59.:10:04.

as Gordon Brown found out, that if you do anything that is viewed as

:10:04.:10:08.

heating, or reducing the benefits to pensioners, you run into trouble.

:10:08.:10:12.

That is absolutely right. He would have been better to have argued for

:10:12.:10:15.

it directly. I think he had a very strong case to make, that when you

:10:15.:10:19.

thought about the increases in the state pension and means-tested

:10:19.:10:22.

allowances, and also the ways in which pensioners themselves might

:10:22.:10:27.

have gained from other kinds of tax measures, they were gainers out of

:10:27.:10:31.

these measures overall. To make that argument he had to argue it

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directly. Instead, he has buried it in the detail which has allowed

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people do have a exaggerated notion of the granny tax. Much of the cost

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associated with this granny tax idea is the inversion in the rise

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of personal allowance, because otherwise they would have gained

:10:48.:10:58.
:10:58.:10:59.

Let's talk to our panel about the tax. Let's come on to what you said

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it was the real point in the Budget from the Lib Dem perspective, of

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raising the threshold to �9,205. There will be no tax for most

:11:10.:11:14.

people on the first sum that they earn of that amount. Were you aware

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that one of the prices for that would be that 300,000 people would

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have to be swept into the 40% tax One of the things I was advocating

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a few days ago, you said, how am I going -- how are we going to pay

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for the proposal and I said, one of the issues is clawing back on

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pension tax relief. Is this a price worth paying? That 300,000 very

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middle income people, with the families, who are not rich by any

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strength of the imagination, particularly if they live in the

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South East, where costs are much higher, were you aware that for

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them, their marginal rate would become 40%? What the government has

:12:00.:12:04.

done is precisely that measure, that we have wanted to make sure

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that the raising of the threshold, the majority of the benefit was

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failed by basic rate tax payers rather than at more exclusively

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higher rate taxpayers -- was felled by. Pulling back the threshold

:12:18.:12:25.

means higher rate taxpayers benefit but only to the same percent.

:12:25.:12:30.

you happy that a tax break which was originally set by Nigel Watts -

:12:30.:12:34.

- Nigel Lawson for the wealthy, is now faced by Derek middle income

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earners, by long-serving -- long- serving policeman, the head of an

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English department in a small comprehensive. Are you comfortable

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that these people should be paying 40% to pay for your threshold?

:12:46.:12:49.

Happy would be the wrong word. I am not in favour of heavy taxes on

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people who go out to work. That is what you have done. The philosophy

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is raising people out of income tax and giving a break to the people

:12:58.:13:03.

who do go out to work. Higher-rate taxpayers will benefit, it is just

:13:03.:13:09.

they will benefit at the same rate as basic rate taxpayers. Let's

:13:09.:13:13.

stick with middle earners. Under your skin, if you are earning

:13:13.:13:21.

between 50 and �60,000 -- under your scheme... In London and the

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South East, that is not an unusual income, and you are a family of

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three, what is your marginal tax rate going to be now? Be higher

:13:30.:13:40.
:13:40.:13:41.

than it was before any idea how Have you will have 42% tax and

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National Insurance, and 24.5% clawback from the child benefit.

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Let me finish. If you are earning between 50 and 60,000, every extra

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pound you earn between that gap, you will lose 66.5% of that �1. Are

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you happy with that? It is not ideal but we face a very difficult

:14:09.:14:12.

situation with the deficit. It is certainly preferable to the

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previous situation, which was a straight cliff edge that we faced

:14:16.:14:20.

just at the higher rate tax band. The people that may be trying to

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better themselves and get on well be facing a 66.5% marginal rate of

:14:25.:14:30.

tax? I completely agree that it is not ideal and in the long term, we

:14:30.:14:34.

should seek to sort these issues out. The fact is that we are facing

:14:34.:14:38.

a massive Budget deficit, we need to find the money to deal with that

:14:38.:14:47.

deficit. And that we have tapered the withdrawal of child benefit

:14:47.:14:52.

that -- in a way that hadn't been done before. The situation has

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improved. Is it right that we ask the people lower down the income

:14:56.:15:00.

scale, earning 20,000, to pay for the child benefit of people owning

:15:00.:15:10.
:15:10.:15:14.

Look at the time from �100,000 and upwards. There is a very high.

:15:14.:15:21.

There is nothing about that. point is... No. No. You made the

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point. I want to ask you, what is the justice of people on �50,000

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paying a tax rate of .66.5%, when those over �140,000 will be paying

:15:35.:15:40.

55%. Where is the justice? Those people earning over �150,000 will

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be paying more money on property. Only if they are selling or buying

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a house? Which is only 1% normally of the people in that bracket.

:15:48.:15:53.

That group will be paying more and we have seen the �150,000 tax rate

:15:53.:15:58.

didn't raise any money. The 50% tax rate... That's not true.

:15:58.:16:02.

It raised no money. We saw a 25% drop in the level of income amongst

:16:02.:16:05.

that group. Well, let's come on to that.

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It was a tax that didn't raise any money.

:16:08.:16:15.

No. No, you have had your say. Let me come on to someone else now. Are

:16:15.:16:19.

you comfortable that Labour's main critique of this Budget which Ed

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Miliband went on yesterday is the cut from 50 to 45 pence when HMRC

:16:24.:16:30.

and the OBR say it cost about �100 million a year? Well, let's look at

:16:31.:16:34.

the �100 million number. It is a number on which lots of the aspects

:16:35.:16:41.

of this Budget hang. It is calculated on page 52 of the HMRC

:16:41.:16:46.

report, table A2, the calculation shows that the HMRC anticipate

:16:46.:16:51.

getting �3 billion a year steady state from the 50 pence rate, but

:16:51.:16:56.

in the previous 51 pages of that document, in theoretical, under

:16:56.:17:02.

graduate style economics, it suggests that the basically

:17:02.:17:05.

principle would result in behavioural change that will

:17:05.:17:10.

realise �2.9 billion. That's where the �100 million comes from, but in

:17:10.:17:15.

the first year we netted �1 billion extra, not �100 million, �1 billion

:17:15.:17:21.

and they concede that going forward it would be �3 billion. They don't

:17:21.:17:27.

concede that? No, they do. They don't concede that. What they

:17:27.:17:32.

say is that the transitional arrangements mean that �100, maybe

:17:32.:17:35.

too low a calculation because people are ducking and diving, but

:17:35.:17:40.

that going forward, you would get nothing like �3 billion. Now for

:17:40.:17:43.

the sake of revenues... Well, if I can come back on that.

:17:44.:17:48.

What I really want to get to you, is it really Labour's policy that

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once again this country should have the highest top rate of income tax

:17:52.:17:57.

of the G20? Is that Labour's policy? We think it is right now,

:17:57.:18:02.

completely the wrong thing to do to cut the 50 pence rate.

:18:02.:18:09.

We think they could have kept it. They could have recouped �1 billion

:18:09.:18:13.

a year. And that would have been a fair way, but to use that money to

:18:13.:18:21.

use that money to give a big bung, �40,000 to 14 millionaires, 14,000

:18:21.:18:24.

millionaires, it is crazy. It is the wrong priority.

:18:24.:18:28.

The money is being recouped by property taxes on that group.

:18:28.:18:34.

it is not. Yes, it is. It is five times the amount raised by that tax.

:18:34.:18:42.

It is complete smoke in mirrors. You shouldn't even report this...

:18:42.:18:46.

When income is mobile that time to tax that is fruitless, it is better

:18:46.:18:51.

to put put those taxes on property and to reform our tax system in

:18:51.:18:56.

that way. Why is it that every other country in the G20, why is it

:18:56.:18:59.

that every other country in the G20 doesn't have a top rate as high as

:18:59.:19:04.

that? Are they all wrong? Are they all wrong? What is the answer to

:19:04.:19:10.

that question? It was a scorched earth policy. Let me answer it. The

:19:10.:19:12.

reality is yes, we have got a high top rate.

:19:13.:19:19.

You have got the highest? Yes, and what point does it kick in, at

:19:19.:19:25.

�150,000. At what point does it kick in in trance 72,000 euros. The

:19:25.:19:31.

top rate in this country was was only being levied on people earning

:19:31.:19:35.

over �150,000. That's a large amount of money and those people

:19:35.:19:40.

have been given a big bung. It is interesting to get a straight

:19:40.:19:44.

answer. The Government is banking on the private sector to get the

:19:44.:19:48.

economy back on track. Let's look at how they they plan to do it.

:19:48.:19:54.

George Osborne has been proudly trum trumpeting that his Bug has

:19:54.:19:57.

been designed to give businesses a helping hand. Let's look at the

:19:57.:20:02.

details, corporation will be cut -- corporation tax will be cut to 24%.

:20:03.:20:08.

By April 2014, it will be 22%. More enterprise zones are to be created

:20:08.:20:12.

in Scotland and Wales and there will be tax relief for video games,

:20:12.:20:16.

animation and so high end television productions. Good news

:20:16.:20:21.

for this programme! �130 million is to be earmarked for

:20:21.:20:24.

improving the rail network in the north of England and there will be

:20:24.:20:27.

a consultation on simpifying the tax system for small businesses. We

:20:27.:20:37.
:20:37.:20:38.

will all be able to shop until we drop during the Olympics with the

:20:38.:20:43.

relaxation of the trading laws. Joining us now is Dr Adam Marshall.

:20:43.:20:51.

Was it a Budget for business? it depends what size business you

:20:51.:20:56.

are. Many of the smallest, the one man bands will be happy about

:20:56.:21:00.

simplification of taxes, but there is a lot of solid citizen companies,

:21:00.:21:04.

small and medium sized companies up and down the country that would

:21:04.:21:09.

have looked at yesterday's Budget and said, "There is not a lot in it

:21:09.:21:13.

for me. No relief on business rates. No relief on investment allowances

:21:13.:21:19.

when a lot have plant and machinery they want to buy." No help to get

:21:19.:21:23.

young people into work. A lot of of those companies are scratching

:21:23.:21:26.

their heads and saying, "I think the Chancellor could have done

:21:26.:21:31.

more.". I spent the day with small and medium sized businesses in the

:21:31.:21:35.

Midlands and they echoed what you said. If the Government wanted to

:21:35.:21:40.

encourage us to take on new employees and want us to grow,

:21:40.:21:43.

there wasn't anything tangable enough for them? That's right.

:21:43.:21:49.

There is a huge number of companies up and down the country, some some

:21:49.:21:53.

with 50 or 150 employees, many will have been in business for

:21:53.:21:57.

generations and they will say, "This feels like a Budget for big

:21:57.:22:01.

corporations and the smallest of businesses." While companies will

:22:01.:22:06.

be happy to see the back of the 50 pence tax rate, while they will be

:22:06.:22:10.

happy to see corporation tax coming down, they wanted more immediate

:22:10.:22:15.

help on growth and more reassurance and confidence from Government

:22:15.:22:18.

policy. Business I spoke to yesterday were

:22:18.:22:22.

disappointed that not more was done by fuel duty. They were united in

:22:22.:22:28.

that? Abouts A bugbear for many companies particularly outside the

:22:28.:22:31.

South East where the car is the key mode of transport for so many

:22:31.:22:33.

people, not just for getting to work, but for conducting business.

:22:33.:22:38.

Fuel duty is a big issue and it reverberates across rural

:22:38.:22:41.

businesses communities and in many cities and towns outside the South

:22:41.:22:48.

East. Let's look at this business of

:22:48.:22:53.

corporation tax cut. It has been speeded up, it is down to 24%, the

:22:53.:22:59.

idea is to go to 22% by 2014 and a longer term goal of getting to 20%

:22:59.:23:05.

is the Government's position. What is the estimate of how much this

:23:05.:23:08.

cut in corporation tax will add to business investment?

:23:08.:23:18.
:23:18.:23:20.

Well, I don't know what the precise estimate is. It is 1% by 2016. It

:23:20.:23:26.

will increase business investment by 1% by 2014. What will that do to

:23:26.:23:32.

growth? What will that do to growth? It will add 0.1% to the

:23:32.:23:38.

national income. So what is the point? That's an estimate.

:23:38.:23:43.

Yes, it is the OBR estimate. Well, it is your office of budget

:23:43.:23:46.

responsibility, you set it up? rates are one way of helping

:23:46.:23:49.

businesses, but there are other things that we are doing in the

:23:49.:23:52.

Budget so the airport capacity in the south-east is very important.

:23:52.:23:59.

The reform to roads, roads tolling, moving tax, I hope, away from fuel

:23:59.:24:02.

duty in the long-term. But how much will business

:24:02.:24:07.

investment rise this year? Well, how much, we don't know at

:24:07.:24:14.

this stage? Well according to the OBR it will be 7% less than the

:24:14.:24:18.

original estimate. So it is 7%, it is growing by 7% less than it would

:24:18.:24:24.

have done only a year ago. So it is down by 7% this year and will rise

:24:24.:24:29.

by 1% by 2016, so where is the supply side breakthrough?

:24:29.:24:34.

Well, what we need to do, we need to do more on jobs, specifically,

:24:34.:24:37.

on exempting small businesses from employment regulations on those

:24:37.:24:41.

steps, we need to take forward and that is being consulted on by the

:24:41.:24:47.

Government at the moment. didn't mention for for jobs for

:24:47.:24:57.
:24:57.:24:57.

young people yesterday? Why did he not do that? All right let me ask

:24:57.:25:00.

your coalition colleague here. Do you believe this is a Budget for

:25:00.:25:06.

growth? Yes. The eurozone growth forecasts have been downgraded by

:25:06.:25:09.

the office for budget budget responsibility and the British

:25:09.:25:13.

forecasts have been upgraded. But that's a joke.

:25:13.:25:15.

But it is still going in the right direction.

:25:15.:25:20.

Actually, it is not because they have downgraded the forecast for

:25:20.:25:24.

2013. They have downgraded that? But still showing growth.

:25:24.:25:29.

No, if you add the growth this year and next year, according to the

:25:29.:25:33.

office of office responsibility it is flat? And unemployment falling

:25:33.:25:38.

throughout that period as well. I need to get awe copy of the red

:25:38.:25:44.

book. If If this is a Budget for growth, why has the OBR not changed

:25:44.:25:49.

the growth projections? The OBR is is showing stagnant growth this

:25:49.:25:54.

year. It has reduced growth for next year and it has kept it the

:25:54.:26:00.

same for 2014 and 2015, if it was a Budget for growth, why was the OBR

:26:00.:26:04.

not able to uprate its growth projection? You have to take

:26:05.:26:08.

account what is going on in the rest of the world. Our friends from

:26:08.:26:12.

the Labour Party for the last two years they have been predicting a

:26:12.:26:16.

double-dip recession. That has not happened. Our independent... So it

:26:16.:26:19.

is the eurozone's fault, is that what you are saying?

:26:19.:26:23.

Well, the eurozone has... And this is the same eurozone I believe that

:26:23.:26:28.

your party used to want us to join? Well, if you want to go back 13

:26:28.:26:32.

years and rehearse the arguments between 1997 and 1999 about whether

:26:32.:26:38.

it was right to join the eurozone, we can do that. What would Labour

:26:38.:26:44.

do to encourage business to invest? We would have introduced measures

:26:44.:26:48.

for small businesses, the NIC holiday, we have talked about would

:26:48.:26:51.

have stimulated the economy. It would have been something as we

:26:51.:26:55.

heard earlier on that would have helped small business take on new

:26:55.:26:58.

workers. We would have cut VAT across-the-board which would have

:26:58.:27:02.

been a stimulus to the retail sector. It would have been...

:27:02.:27:06.

Interest rates would have gone up? I don't think interest rates would

:27:06.:27:09.

have gone up. Really, don't you follow the bond

:27:09.:27:16.

markets? If we introduced a 2.5% reduction in VAT.

:27:16.:27:19.

A big risk? No, I don't think that would have been a big risk.

:27:19.:27:26.

Really? No, in the current climate? You can't guarantee that? I don't

:27:26.:27:30.

think most economists would suggest if you made a temporary cut to VAT

:27:30.:27:35.

you would see the bond market... Most analysts would say if the

:27:35.:27:39.

Government was to leave its deficit reduction plan.

:27:39.:27:42.

That's different. They are having to borrow more

:27:42.:27:45.

money as a result of more people being out of work. We know the

:27:45.:27:52.

truth it is �158 billion extra. OBR factored the measures in the Budget

:27:52.:27:56.

and it is projecting flat growth. We have to move on. We have a lot

:27:56.:28:01.

of ground to cover here, you know! I will be looking for a bonus. Oh,

:28:01.:28:04.

you are not allowed bonuses anymore! Let's hear what Mr

:28:04.:28:08.

Osbourne said about the economy. Yes the office for budgetary

:28:08.:28:12.

responsibility has been looking into its crystal ball. The growth

:28:13.:28:18.

forecasts for this year have been revised up. The forecasts for 2013

:28:18.:28:26.

is 2% and for 20 shrks the OBR thinks it will be 2.7%.

:28:26.:28:31.

Unemployment is forecast to peak at 1.67 million by the end of 2012 and

:28:31.:28:34.

it is thought inflation will fall during the rest of this year and it

:28:34.:28:42.

will be close to the 2% target by early 2013. Those borrowing figures,

:28:42.:28:52.

this year we are set to borrow �136 billion. It could be as low as �21

:28:52.:28:58.

billion by 2016/17. This will mean our total debt could be nearly �1.5

:28:58.:29:03.

trillion. Eye watering. We can speak to Allister Heath. Thank you

:29:03.:29:07.

for coming on the programme. Let's look at the borrowing figures. Only

:29:07.:29:10.

�1 billion than was forecast, disappointing for the Chancellor?

:29:10.:29:14.

It is not great news. For the first six or seven months of the year,

:29:14.:29:18.

the Chancellor spent a lot less money than he was expecting to and

:29:18.:29:22.

the figures look better, but suddenly yesterday, one of the

:29:22.:29:25.

additional figures that was released in addition to the Budget

:29:26.:29:30.

showed there is a lot of borrowing going on in February. It is not

:29:30.:29:33.

really improving at any faster rate. My big worry however is the growth

:29:33.:29:37.

figures. The growth figures for this year are probably realistic,

:29:37.:29:42.

but for next year onwards, they are hopeful and in four years time,

:29:42.:29:47.

they are optimistic. Anyone talk being 3% growth. That's a massive

:29:47.:29:52.

gamble on growth. You have this big problem which is all the forecasts

:29:52.:29:56.

rely on the large rebound in activity in three or four years and

:29:56.:30:00.

not enough on spending cuts at the moment. I don't think that the

:30:00.:30:03.

Chancellor did enough to boost growth in his Budget. There were

:30:04.:30:08.

some good measures like on cutting the top rate of tax and corporation

:30:08.:30:13.

taxks but too few people saw their marginal tax rates fall. Only 7% of

:30:13.:30:17.

the public saw their marginal tax rates fall and a lot of people saw

:30:17.:30:20.

it increase because of the way child benefit will be taken away

:30:20.:30:22.

from people. What do you think would be more

:30:22.:30:26.

realistic in terms of growth prospects? How much lower do you

:30:26.:30:31.

think they will be? It is impossible to gauge these things

:30:32.:30:35.

accurately. It is unrealistic to think that you will get such a

:30:35.:30:39.

rebound in growth. Anything could happen. The the eurozone crisis

:30:39.:30:46.

could continue. China could slow down. There is huge uncertainties.

:30:46.:30:51.

The whole of the long-term public finances of this country rely on

:30:51.:30:54.

growth forecasts and the Government has not done enough to achieve the

:30:54.:30:57.

growth forecast. There was good good stuff in the Budget when it

:30:58.:31:03.

came to growth. This was a Budget for growth, but a Budget for growth

:31:03.:31:05.

because he should have cut more things and cut more taxes.

:31:05.:31:14.

We are joined by viewers from Scotland, welcome to The Daily

:31:15.:31:19.

Politics. We have been asking questions about the state of the

:31:19.:31:29.
:31:29.:31:32.

economy. Let me come to you, Owen Smith. The coalition inherited a

:31:32.:31:38.

deficit of over 11% of GDP. By 2016, they will have got that deficit

:31:38.:31:44.

down to about 1% of GDP. That is a result, isn't it? If they achieve

:31:44.:31:49.

it. It is reliant on them achieving growth numbers that most people

:31:49.:31:57.

think are pretty heroic in their assumptions. These are the growth

:31:57.:32:00.

assumptions that Alistair Darling made in his four-year plan, they

:32:00.:32:06.

are no different from yours. That is not quite true. We were

:32:06.:32:09.

anticipating that the trajectory was going to be a lot fluttered

:32:09.:32:13.

towards the 3%, as opposed to where we are right now, having gone into

:32:13.:32:18.

a trough, anticipating this great big bounce back. There is a very

:32:18.:32:23.

big difference between the level of growth we were anticipating. Our

:32:23.:32:30.

economy was growing as we left office, at 2%. It is now growing at

:32:30.:32:34.

0.8%. That was before the eurozone crisis, where every economy has

:32:34.:32:41.

been downgraded. Absolutely true. I was at a business breakfast myself,

:32:41.:32:48.

business people don't feel this was a Budget for growth. I don't

:32:48.:32:52.

understand how your policy is any different from the coalition's. If

:32:52.:32:59.

you take a graph of how debt, which is a key motive... The Chancellor

:32:59.:33:04.

mixed up the debt and the deficit yesterday. If you take a chance --

:33:04.:33:08.

chart of how debt was to accumulate and Alistair Darling, it peaks at

:33:08.:33:16.

1.4 trillion by 2016. If you take this government's chart, it pizza -

:33:16.:33:20.

- it peaks at 1.4 trillion in 2016. Your trajectories are the same and

:33:20.:33:25.

I sometimes wonder what you are arguing about. We are going about

:33:25.:33:28.

the manner in which we would have tried to bring down the debt over

:33:28.:33:34.

all. You are not bringing down the debt. They are borrowing an extra 6

:33:34.:33:37.

billion this February versus last February. They are borrowing in

:33:37.:33:42.

order to pay for more people out of work and fewer people paying tax.

:33:42.:33:46.

If we were in power, I think we would have seen more stimulus in

:33:46.:33:56.

the economy. Is the Darling plan still Labour policy. Yeah. Yes, of

:33:56.:34:01.

course, we would be halving the deficit over this Parliament. The

:34:01.:34:07.

status of this economy that we are going to inherit is very different.

:34:07.:34:10.

What happened under the Labour government is that we saw a

:34:10.:34:15.

reduction in productivity, of growth that was fuelled by debt and

:34:15.:34:19.

public spending. We have had to put a stop to that. It was fuelled by

:34:19.:34:23.

public spending and now we have got a debt which is higher than it has

:34:23.:34:30.

ever been before. I think the point is, there is no magic bullet.

:34:30.:34:35.

had a pound bought some time -- every time somebody said that, I

:34:35.:34:39.

would be able to buy a magic bullet. Can you let your coalition partner

:34:40.:34:47.

speak? Having sat through umpteen debates for the last few years,

:34:47.:34:50.

every Labour backbencher who speaks opposes one aspect of what the

:34:50.:34:54.

coalition is doing, whether it is the VAT rise, changes in tax rates,

:34:54.:34:58.

what we are doing to reform the benefit system. There is no

:34:58.:35:02.

coherence amongst the Labour Party. Or what on earth they should do to

:35:02.:35:06.

tackle this deficit. You may say you want to reduce the deficit.

:35:06.:35:09.

Among still parliamentary colleagues, none of them support

:35:09.:35:14.

any of the measures that the government is doing. One thing we

:35:14.:35:18.

are clear and coherent on, it is the wrong thing to do yesterday, to

:35:18.:35:23.

cut pensioners' income in order to give a tax benefit... Their incomes

:35:23.:35:33.
:35:33.:35:36.

have not been cut. The allowances How do you feel about �10 billion

:35:36.:35:39.

more of welfare cuts? That is possibly going to happen towards

:35:39.:35:44.

the end of the parliament, or early in the next Parliament. But of

:35:44.:35:47.

course, we can have a major reform of the welfare system through

:35:47.:35:51.

Universal Credit, starting next year, in order to deal with the

:35:51.:35:55.

labyrinth of benefit entitlements that Gordon Brown has left behind,

:35:55.:35:59.

and to make it clear with tax reforms that being in work really

:35:59.:36:05.

does pay. I think we better leave it there. Plenty more to talk about

:36:05.:36:08.

in this Budget. The interesting thing for the newspapers will be

:36:08.:36:13.

not how bad it was today, but what it looks like at the weekend. Iain

:36:13.:36:17.

Macleod used to say that a Budget that was well received the day

:36:17.:36:20.

after would be trashed by the weekend, and warned that was

:36:20.:36:27.

trashed the day after would be well-received... We will see... If

:36:27.:36:32.

that maxim holds up. Thanks to all three of you. Now to Afghanistan,

:36:32.:36:36.

an issue that came to the fore at yesterday's PMQs. Lets take a look

:36:36.:36:43.

Following the Prime Minister's recent trip to Washington, we now

:36:43.:36:46.

know that the timetable for the withdrawal of British and other

:36:46.:36:49.

international combat forces in Afghanistan will be reviewed at the

:36:49.:36:53.

NATO summit in Chicago in May. The Prime Minister has previously set

:36:53.:36:57.

out a timetable that would see combat operations for British

:36:57.:37:03.

troops seized by the end of 2014. Given the recent statements by the

:37:03.:37:06.

US Defence Secretary and the French President about an accelerated

:37:06.:37:12.

timetable for their trips, can the Prime Minister confirm the British

:37:12.:37:16.

Government's position? -- their troops. What I had said absolutely

:37:16.:37:20.

stance which is that we will not be in a combat role in Afghanistan

:37:20.:37:24.

after 2014, nor will we have anything like the number of groups

:37:24.:37:28.

we have now. We will be performing a training task, particularly

:37:28.:37:32.

helping with the officer training academy. Between now and 2014, it

:37:32.:37:35.

is important we have a sensible profile for the reduction in troop

:37:35.:37:40.

numbers. That should be largely based on the conditions in terms of

:37:40.:37:43.

the three parts of Helmand Province that we are still responsible for,

:37:43.:37:53.
:37:53.:37:55.

and the transition that takes place. Can the Prime Minister tell us what

:37:55.:38:00.

his assessment of the significance of the Taliban suspending talks is,

:38:00.:38:06.

and does he agree that we owe it to our troops to be more focused on

:38:06.:38:12.

securing a lasting settlement. Since taking office, and the last

:38:12.:38:16.

government took this view as well, the British position has been put

:38:16.:38:20.

that we need to have the best possible solution for the people of

:38:20.:38:25.

Afghanistan. Britain has been pushing for reconciliation and

:38:25.:38:27.

integration and I had very productive talks with President

:38:27.:38:30.

Obama last week, because the American do is the same. They want

:38:30.:38:35.

to support that political process. Of course, the Taliban have said

:38:35.:38:38.

what they said last week. I would make this point. We are committed

:38:38.:38:42.

to handing over to the Afghan government, the Afghan military,

:38:42.:38:46.

the Afghan police, and the numbers of Afghan military and police are

:38:46.:38:50.

on track. We are committed to doing that at the end of 2014. We believe

:38:50.:38:56.

it can happen with a satisfactory outcome for the United Kingdom. It

:38:56.:39:00.

would be better for everyone concerned if it was accompanied by

:39:00.:39:06.

a political settlement. And joining us now for the rest of

:39:06.:39:09.

the programme is Colonel Tim Collins, who served in the Iraq War

:39:09.:39:13.

and is now a member of the Conservative party. Welcome.

:39:13.:39:17.

not a member of the Conservative Party. Thank you for correcting us,

:39:17.:39:22.

we will get rid of the researcher who put that down! Bid was probably

:39:22.:39:31.

And we're also joined by the Shadow Defence Secretary, Jim Murphy. Is

:39:31.:39:38.

it an exit strategy that you think will work? After a fashion. If --

:39:38.:39:42.

it is Afghanistan after all. The question is, is the government and

:39:42.:39:45.

military going to be more robust than the one that the Russians left

:39:45.:39:49.

behind? I think it will be. There is a great deal of effort going

:39:49.:39:56.

into training and I know it is the main focus of the I SFA if -- is

:39:56.:40:03.

You think you will be ready to handle their own affairs when

:40:03.:40:08.

combat troops leave in 2014? difficulty they have is there is a

:40:08.:40:12.

balance between people who have been professionalised and the bulk,

:40:12.:40:16.

as in large numbers of Afghan police. With some of those, the

:40:16.:40:21.

quality is not there but at the heart of it, there is quality. The

:40:21.:40:24.

difficulty is convincing the population do have faith in their

:40:24.:40:30.

armed forces and their police force -- convincing the population to

:40:30.:40:35.

have faith. Do you think the exit strategy is going to work from a

:40:35.:40:39.

timetable point of view? That the bulk of police and armed forces in

:40:39.:40:42.

Afghanistan will be strong enough to hold the country where it is?

:40:42.:40:50.

just don't know yet. We hope so but we don't know so. I agree with what

:40:50.:40:54.

David Cameron and Ed Miliband was saying. I thought David Cameron was

:40:54.:40:58.

a little cavalier when he said that we can leave without a political

:40:58.:41:03.

settlement. I find that really difficult to understand. If that is

:41:03.:41:07.

now the government's policy, it is quite a significant shift. When the

:41:07.:41:14.

Soviets left, it lasted three years. We have been in four was in

:41:14.:41:21.

Afghanistan, this is the 5th. point is, everybody is talking

:41:21.:41:24.

about politics and they have missed the point. Why go there a lot, I

:41:24.:41:28.

employ people there. It is not about politics. The Taliban doesn't

:41:28.:41:33.

exist. The Taliban is a blanket term. There are networks and groups.

:41:33.:41:38.

These people have become criminal entrepreneurs. We don't see any

:41:38.:41:42.

evidence and I work closely with the police, of anyone with any

:41:42.:41:47.

desire whatsoever to roll tanks and takeover couple like Saigon, there

:41:47.:41:52.

is no desire there. -- takeover Kabul. They would like the regime

:41:52.:41:57.

in place to continue them to make money and I think that would go on.

:41:57.:42:02.

In a sandwich in between, there are enough decent Afghans and decent

:42:02.:42:06.

policeman who want to tackle the crime. It is all about crime, not

:42:06.:42:11.

war but crime. Would they be in a position to deal with that? If

:42:11.:42:16.

warlords start taking over parts of Afghanistan... Why would parasites

:42:16.:42:22.

kill the beast they live off? you say there is no need for a

:42:22.:42:28.

political settlement... I am not saying that. Politics are not a

:42:28.:42:32.

higher priority in modern Afghanistan. Should they? Of course,

:42:32.:42:38.

but... What sort of political settlement should there be? If

:42:38.:42:41.

David Cameron is saying we could live without a political settlement,

:42:41.:42:50.

is it to cavalier? The Taliban, to use the broad term, and the various

:42:50.:42:54.

other smaller groups, criminal groups, they rank and file follow

:42:54.:42:58.

their leaders. The rank and file know what they are fighting against.

:42:58.:43:02.

They have no idea on earth what they are fighting for, there is no

:43:02.:43:05.

political aspiration. If we had a political aspiration, we could talk

:43:05.:43:09.

to them but they don't know what to ask for. There is a politics that

:43:09.:43:12.

tolerates the degree of corruption that you are speaking about and we

:43:12.:43:16.

have to make some progress in that. There is a politics that allows and

:43:16.:43:19.

governed space to develop again, where malevolent elements can

:43:19.:43:23.

strike against neighbours and others across the world, and that

:43:23.:43:26.

is why politics is very important. Not the Westminster Classic

:43:26.:43:33.

democratic model, none of us think it is that sort of thing. It still

:43:33.:43:38.

sounds very vague. It is a distasteful thing to say and we are

:43:38.:43:44.

not having the conversation with the public debt, but a degree of

:43:44.:43:46.

Taliban involvement in the government of Afghanistan now seems

:43:46.:43:51.

inevitable. How do we achieve that in a way that on us what the UK

:43:51.:43:57.

forces have been through in the past decade, -- a way that honours.

:43:57.:44:01.

Are we going there to take those people on, deal with Al-Qaeda and

:44:01.:44:05.

take those people on. That is absolutely the point. The criminal

:44:05.:44:08.

elements, the criminal entrepreneurs have been allowed to

:44:08.:44:14.

set the pace. The Taliban, and other groups, whatever they are

:44:14.:44:17.

called, need to have a political agenda that is other than someone

:44:17.:44:23.

else's agenda, other than the Pakistani intelligence services

:44:23.:44:29.

agenda. They need a Pashtun, or northern alliance agenda. That does

:44:29.:44:33.

not exist. I think we might have missed the opportunity to help them

:44:33.:44:39.

develop that. We have to move on, you have only got a few minutes

:44:39.:44:49.
:44:49.:44:51.

left. What is your response that Two this idea was put forward by

:44:51.:44:54.

the Labour government, that they want to look at the plan on carrier

:44:54.:44:58.

jets. Your viewers would have followed this in detail yet. When

:44:58.:45:02.

the new government came in, they inherited a plan of two aircraft

:45:02.:45:06.

carriers, the biggest in the Royal Navy's history, three times longer

:45:07.:45:11.

than a football pitch. That was the traditional thing that people will

:45:11.:45:15.

have seen, Harrier jump jets, vertical take-off and landing. The

:45:16.:45:19.

government said, let's go with an American-style, Top Gun traditional

:45:19.:45:24.

take off. They look as if they are going back to the original plan.

:45:24.:45:28.

What is the evidence they are looking at this again? They are no

:45:28.:45:32.

longer defending their own policy. The media was full of stories, a

:45:32.:45:36.

soft landing of a massive U-turn. It is a huge embarrassment,

:45:37.:45:41.

political hubris. A sense that they have wasted possibly hundreds of

:45:41.:45:46.

millions of pounds in coming up with a third policy, when there are

:45:46.:45:49.

rarely any two options. The difficulty here is they sold the

:45:49.:45:53.

entire carrier fleet. All 72 of those planes have been sent to

:45:53.:45:57.

America. How long have we got this period of time without question I

:45:57.:46:02.

asked for an urgent question today, it was not granted. I think it is a

:46:02.:46:05.

real worry that an island nation cannot put an aircraft carrier to

:46:05.:46:10.

see, because the one we have crashed into a tug last week.

:46:10.:46:20.
:46:20.:46:21.

Is this worrying? It is worrying. All three parties would like a

:46:21.:46:25.

European-style defence force as opposed to an expeditionary army.

:46:25.:46:30.

Does it leave us vulnerable? intention is to hide amongst the

:46:30.:46:36.

Europeans. That we would have an aggressive camping organisation

:46:36.:46:39.

like the other Europeans and when things went wrong, hiding in large

:46:39.:46:46.

numbers would protect us. We would have no cas pit why toe why -- pa

:46:46.:46:49.

pa passity to -- capacity to project power.

:46:49.:46:55.

We are not going to have aeroplanes flying off it. I keep saying you

:46:55.:46:59.

don't have to be a military strategist to know what aircraft

:46:59.:47:03.

carriers are meant to do. The jump jet would be more

:47:03.:47:10.

flexible? It doesn't have as much power. It doesn't have long legs,

:47:10.:47:18.

but it can land wherever you wish and the Government got involved in

:47:18.:47:22.

a Defence Review which was rushed. It seems after a lot of money and

:47:22.:47:25.

time, they have gone back to a more expensive option of what we had

:47:26.:47:29.

before. If you told the Speaker that he was

:47:29.:47:36.

going to ask a kaleidoscopic question he might have allowed it!

:47:36.:47:42.

Who would want to be a police commission sner. -- commissioner?

:47:42.:47:47.

Our guest, Tim Collins does! We sent Giles out to find out what the

:47:47.:47:49.

job intales. -- entails.

:47:49.:47:53.

Across the wide range of duties our police have, there is always that

:47:53.:47:57.

question of to hom are they accountable -- whom are they

:47:57.:48:00.

accountable when we are unhappy, a Chief Constable, a police authority,

:48:00.:48:04.

a mayor or a commissioner? In Opposition, the Conservatives

:48:04.:48:07.

propose add new role of elected police and crime commissioners in

:48:07.:48:11.

England and Wales. At the time it is fair to say it was hard to find

:48:11.:48:15.

people, including police, who would warm to the idea. Nonetheless, the

:48:15.:48:19.

post will exist and in November this year elections will take place.

:48:19.:48:24.

In 41 force areas outside London where the mayor is the PCC.

:48:24.:48:29.

Commissioners in the biggest force areas will receive salaries of over

:48:29.:48:35.

�100,000 to set priorities for their police force, oversee budgets

:48:35.:48:38.

and hire the Chief Constable. So far emerging candidates have

:48:38.:48:42.

something in common that begs questions. The main problem with

:48:42.:48:49.

this idea is that the risk that elected politicians will interfere

:48:49.:48:52.

in police operational matters and that's the big challenge and of

:48:52.:48:55.

course, what we have seen so far the majority of people who have put

:48:55.:49:00.

their name into the frame are, of course, politicians or perhaps past

:49:00.:49:02.

politicians. The Conservatives made it a

:49:02.:49:05.

political role and if you have political office, you have to be

:49:05.:49:08.

accountable. You have to be accountable to the public, but it

:49:08.:49:12.

is right to have accountability back to the party structures.

:49:12.:49:16.

Lib Dems will not be giving central party funding to their candidates

:49:16.:49:22.

who may wish to stand. They will not stop them standing, they will

:49:22.:49:25.

not support something they never supported in the first place.

:49:25.:49:29.

Labour are deciding to contest many of the elections because in certain

:49:29.:49:33.

parts of the UK they have a good chance of winning, but there is an

:49:33.:49:38.

elephant in the room. What we hope of course, that will happen, we

:49:38.:49:42.

have strong independent candidates who are not attached to a party,

:49:42.:49:47.

who may have a background that is relevant in terms of policing who

:49:47.:49:51.

may want to come forward. So far there is no real signs that

:49:51.:49:55.

happening and for some the party angle presents a dilemma for number

:49:55.:50:01.

five of the 1829 principles of the police, to seek and preserve public

:50:01.:50:07.

favour not by pandering to public opinion, but by constantly

:50:07.:50:10.

demonstrating impartial service to law in complete independence of

:50:10.:50:14.

policy. Whoever wins the roles will need to demonstrate they can let

:50:14.:50:20.

police do that from Chief Constables to beat officers and

:50:20.:50:23.

preserve the manifestoes upon which they stood.

:50:23.:50:30.

Tim Collins is is hoping to stand as a Conservative candidate. Why

:50:31.:50:33.

aren't you a member of the Conservative Party? Because I have

:50:33.:50:36.

never been a member of any political parties.

:50:36.:50:39.

Don't you have to be a member of the Conservative Party? We will

:50:39.:50:43.

find out after the local elections in May whether the Conservatives

:50:43.:50:49.

want to nominate me as their candidate. They may not. They may

:50:49.:50:51.

have other members who are better candidates.

:50:51.:50:56.

Now, why do you want to do it? One would argue that you are going to

:50:56.:51:01.

come in at a time, presiding over severe cuts to a police force?

:51:01.:51:05.

I think, the first thing which is that, you know, I am not massively

:51:05.:51:08.

keen to do it, but I have been asked by a number of friends and

:51:08.:51:13.

rank and file policemen saying, "We are worried about this. Will you do

:51:13.:51:18.

it?" I said yes perhaps rather precociously. I was in Gravesend

:51:18.:51:23.

last week on one hand talking to victims of crime which I run a

:51:23.:51:27.

company that employees policemen and I was able to ask them what

:51:27.:51:33.

they would regard as would be without a doubt attempted murders

:51:33.:51:43.

or indeed for uninvestigated. In one case a man who was bitten and

:51:43.:51:51.

covered in is a in saliva. Policemen say that morale is very

:51:51.:51:54.

low and the policemen are not encouraged to do their job and

:51:54.:51:58.

there is no support. What sort of politician

:51:58.:52:02.

commissioner -- police commissioner would you be. There are references

:52:02.:52:08.

to you wanting to be like one of the New York-style commissioners?

:52:08.:52:12.

What I would like to see with myself as the chairman of the of

:52:12.:52:16.

the board, the Chief Constable getting on with doing the job

:52:16.:52:21.

without having to look over his shoulder with some bloated

:52:21.:52:24.

authority looking for statistics. What I would like to see and I grew

:52:24.:52:28.

up in Northern Ireland. We had an effective police reserve. I would

:52:28.:52:32.

like to see the specials turned into a police reserve. I would like

:52:32.:52:34.

to see more people coming from communities and volunteering to

:52:34.:52:39.

become involved in policing. Do you think the country needs all that

:52:39.:52:42.

concentration of policing power in the hands of another elected

:52:42.:52:46.

politician? The country doesn't. It is rejnal.

:52:46.:52:53.

It is -- regional, it is each police force. Do we really need

:52:53.:53:00.

that? As opposed to an unelected councillor. In Kent what we receive

:53:00.:53:04.

from our police authority is a glossy magazine which most people

:53:04.:53:08.

recycle and lots of statistics with any amount of photographs of the

:53:08.:53:12.

lady in charge. Does that do us any good? Independence, that's what

:53:12.:53:15.

Labour has been arguing about, why they don't think it is a good idea.

:53:15.:53:19.

Who would be scrute nidsing -- scrutinising you in that position?

:53:19.:53:24.

Who would be saying, "You have become too politicised." There

:53:24.:53:27.

wouldn't be a strong enough body to say that you overstepped the line?

:53:27.:53:33.

It is what we call democracy. It is the the voters who decide, whatever

:53:33.:53:35.

happens on the 15th November, you can be certain of this, the people

:53:35.:53:40.

of Kent and everywhere else will get the police force they deserve.

:53:40.:53:43.

Briefly, the cost, is it the right time to spend because it will cost

:53:43.:53:48.

a lot of money to run the elections, the pay the salaries of the police

:53:48.:53:52.

commission commissioners and the figures are out there that say it

:53:52.:53:56.

would fund 3,000 police officers? Well, what is going to happen to

:53:56.:54:01.

the police authorities. There are 16 people doing the job. I have

:54:01.:54:04.

said I won't accept a salary. I am Irish and my maths aren't great,

:54:04.:54:10.

but that looks like a saving! I haven't worked it out. Trust me,

:54:10.:54:13.

it is. When you meant the the Specials,

:54:14.:54:20.

you didn't mean the B Specials? will call them the B Specials if

:54:20.:54:26.

you like. We sent Adam Adam out to read the

:54:26.:54:32.

It is a case of bad headlines for the Chancellor. The Guardian

:54:32.:54:38.

calling his Budget scth cynical and deluded." The Daily Telegraph are

:54:38.:54:44.

furious about the granny tax. Could that headline be any bigger or

:54:44.:54:48.

angrier? They are angry about it in The Daily Mail saying that George

:54:48.:54:52.

Osborne picked the pockets of pensioners, but they are angry that

:54:52.:54:58.

he wasn't wearing a tie hours just before delivering the Budget. The

:54:58.:55:03.

Daily Mirror have have gone for a theft theme as well with George

:55:03.:55:08.

Osborne and David Cameron dressed up as muggers. The Sun have gone

:55:08.:55:12.

for humiliation, with the chancellor depicted as Wallace, a

:55:12.:55:16.

reference to the tax break he introduced for animation companies.

:55:16.:55:20.

The prize for best gimmicks goes to the Times. Not only have they got a

:55:20.:55:25.

50 pence with George Osborne and the taxes chainsaw massacre on it,

:55:25.:55:29.

but inside they have a monopoly themed explainer of the Budget and

:55:29.:55:35.

best of all, how the characters of Downton Abbey will be affected by

:55:35.:55:45.
:55:45.:55:53.

the Chancellor's decisions. We are joined by John John Pienaar.

:55:53.:55:59.

I can't remember in recent times a worse set of front pages for any

:55:59.:56:04.

chancellor than this morning? nor can I. You look at the Daily

:56:04.:56:08.

Telegraph, the Conservative-leaning Daily Telegraph by describes it as

:56:08.:56:11.

a Budget that Gordon Brown would have been proud of and no part that

:56:11.:56:17.

is meant as a compliment, they mean shifty, deceitful, full of tricks.

:56:17.:56:23.

My sense of this is they have spun themselves into a tangle. So much

:56:23.:56:30.

of the bUlght was leaked. A lot -- Budget was leaked. A lot came out.

:56:30.:56:33.

There was industrial leaking of the Budget. The bit they didn't leak

:56:33.:56:39.

was the bit about pensioners which amplified coverage of that story

:56:39.:56:49.
:56:49.:56:52.

and it was a big big enough story. There are Deeper currants at work.

:56:52.:56:58.

A lot of the attack from what you might call the Tory press or I

:56:58.:57:03.

think more accurately the Tory inclined press, has hostility to

:57:03.:57:08.

Cameron as well. The Telegraph, The Mail, they are not cheerleaders for

:57:08.:57:11.

Mr Cameron, they like an opportunity to give him a kicking

:57:11.:57:14.

as they have done this morning? There is a certain amount of that.

:57:14.:57:19.

The Sun as well? Include The Sun. There is a feeling on the righter

:57:19.:57:22.

end of Fleet Street that maybe the Government could be a bit more

:57:22.:57:26.

Euro-sceptic than it has been, that it could be more truly Conservative

:57:26.:57:30.

and we call them them Conservative supporting papers, they like to

:57:30.:57:36.

make them jump every now and again, especially this far out from a

:57:36.:57:40.

general election. But just now, you get an

:57:40.:57:45.

opportunity and a chance to... show you are independent.

:57:45.:57:53.

Just before we go, Chris Leslie, he is in front of Parliament almost as

:57:53.:57:56.

we speak, complaining about the leaks. He has been complaining.

:57:56.:58:01.

What do we make of that? He is complaining about the leaking of

:58:01.:58:06.

the Budget. I was watching this and remember the scene in Casablanca

:58:06.:58:10.

where the police chief says he is shocked, shocked to see there is

:58:10.:58:16.

gambling going on in here! It has always happened. It happened under

:58:16.:58:17.

Gordon and Tony and long before that.

:58:17.:58:22.

Tony Blair would have liked a few more leaks under Gordon Brown.

:58:22.:58:27.

wasn't told anything! "I'm Not telling you anything."

:58:27.:58:33.

John Pienaar, you too colonel. Thank you to our guests. I am back

:58:33.:58:39.

tonight with Michael Portillo and Alastair Campbell and Channel 4's

:58:39.:58:47.

Sarah Smith and David Gorman. Anyway we are on BBC One at 11.35pm.

:58:48.:58:52.

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