Browse content similar to 22/03/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Afternoon, folks. Welcome to The Daily Politics. So Wallace and | :00:41. | :00:44. | |
Grommit are happy, but what do Victor Meldrew and his Missus make | :00:44. | :00:47. | |
of it all. It's the morning after the night before and everyone's | :00:47. | :00:52. | |
asking, is Boy George Robin Hood? Or the artful dodger with a grudge | :00:52. | :00:57. | |
against pensioners? Yes, not all the newspaper headlines made pretty | :00:57. | :01:01. | |
reading for the Chancellor this morning. Most have picked up on the | :01:01. | :01:10. | |
so-called granny tax. One of the few bits of the Budget not leaked, | :01:10. | :01:13. | |
there could be a lesson there. "Mugged", exclaimed one paper. | :01:13. | :01:15. | |
We'll have all the analysis. Chancellor's confident the economy | :01:15. | :01:19. | |
will avoid a double dip recession. We'll be looking in more detail at | :01:19. | :01:29. | |
the economic picture and asking what business makes of it all. | :01:29. | :01:31. | |
Osborne announced yesterday that we'll be saving over �2 billion in | :01:31. | :01:35. | |
Afghanistan. But what should our exit strategy be? And we'll be | :01:35. | :01:38. | |
talking to one army officer who wants to swap his colonel cap for a | :01:38. | :01:48. | |
:01:48. | :01:49. | ||
All that in the next hour, and with us for quite a lot of it, to digest, | :01:49. | :01:53. | |
to cogitate and to mull over the budget we have a panel of the very | :01:53. | :02:02. | |
best. A kaleidoscopic panel, no less, of different political hues. | :02:02. | :02:04. | |
The Conservative back bencher, Elizabeth Truss, the Shadow | :02:04. | :02:06. | |
Economic Secretary to the Treasury, Owen Smith, and the Liberal | :02:06. | :02:10. | |
Democrat Treasury Spokesman, Stephen Williams. Welcome to you | :02:10. | :02:18. | |
all. Now, without further ado, let's get down to the Budget. In a | :02:18. | :02:28. | |
:02:28. | :02:28. | ||
moment, we'll be looking at the detail. But first let's cast an eye | :02:28. | :02:32. | |
over the post-Budget morning round of political interviews. If you | :02:32. | :02:35. | |
take the changes this government has made, the tax changes we are | :02:36. | :02:39. | |
talking about plus the increase in the basic state pension, they will | :02:39. | :02:42. | |
be better off under this government. The policies of this government | :02:42. | :02:47. | |
have made them better off because of a really big increase in the | :02:47. | :02:50. | |
basic state pension. People don't have to take my word for it, and a | :02:50. | :02:54. | |
couple of weeks they will see the pension come in and can see for it | :02:54. | :02:58. | |
themselves. They have put the pension up because inflation has | :02:58. | :03:02. | |
been run high over the past year. The pension is going up because | :03:02. | :03:06. | |
dual is going up and food prices are going up. Pensions are worse | :03:06. | :03:10. | |
off because of a tax rise on pensioners. Pensioners will also | :03:10. | :03:17. | |
pay the extra fuel duty this August, the higher alcohol duty. There is | :03:17. | :03:21. | |
no granny tax. No pensioner will have any money taken away from them | :03:21. | :03:27. | |
that they currently have coming to them. They will be getting pension | :03:27. | :03:33. | |
increases in April. That will be �5.30 a week on the state pension. | :03:33. | :03:37. | |
Don't believe this new tag that has been coined in some of the papers, | :03:37. | :03:43. | |
there is not a granny tax. There is a change in the future in the | :03:43. | :03:47. | |
allowance is affecting a minority of pensioners, and for them, net, | :03:47. | :03:51. | |
there will be better off, because the pension gives far more than the | :03:51. | :03:57. | |
changing of the threshold takes away. | :03:57. | :04:03. | |
Your breakfast table this morning. -- that is what was being said over | :04:03. | :04:06. | |
your breakfast table this morning. For what will this Budget be | :04:06. | :04:11. | |
remembered? I think it will be remembered as a Budget for work, | :04:11. | :04:15. | |
for business, for making Britain competitive again. Before this | :04:15. | :04:20. | |
Budget we had the highest income tax top rate in the G20. I think | :04:20. | :04:24. | |
that showed business was not open in Britain, that we would not get | :04:24. | :04:28. | |
investment into our country, other thing that is a vital change. | :04:28. | :04:32. | |
Budget for business? I think it is important, a Budget for jobs, for | :04:32. | :04:36. | |
getting more people into employment. I think raising the threshold on | :04:36. | :04:42. | |
low earners will really help, give more people an incentive to work. | :04:42. | :04:47. | |
am going to hold back until later. Owen Smith, what do you think this | :04:47. | :04:52. | |
Budget will be remembered for? things. It will be remembered for | :04:52. | :04:58. | |
giving a big tax bung to the wealthiest 1% in our society. | :04:58. | :05:03. | |
�10,000 per man and woman, earning over �150,000. It will be | :05:03. | :05:07. | |
remembered for paying for that by introducing effectively a stealth | :05:07. | :05:11. | |
tax on pensioners. And the Lib Dem, Stephen Williams. I am a keen | :05:11. | :05:16. | |
student of studying budgets, back to my degree in economic history. | :05:16. | :05:22. | |
At Bristol University. There's a university, there? There is, one of | :05:22. | :05:28. | |
the best in the country, I can assure you. This will be remembered | :05:28. | :05:32. | |
for one of the biggest tax breaks in a generation. For 30 years, the | :05:32. | :05:38. | |
largest rise in allowance, and a tax cut of over �500 for 24 million | :05:38. | :05:45. | |
people. Finally, on the leaks, I understand the Speaker has allowed | :05:45. | :05:50. | |
Chris Leslie to debate this morning. Do you think the Chancellor will | :05:50. | :05:54. | |
have learned that if in the end, he looks everything except the bit | :05:54. | :05:58. | |
that is controversial and is going to cause problems, he will end up | :05:58. | :06:02. | |
getting the headlines he deserves. Which is what he got this morning. | :06:02. | :06:07. | |
I think what we have seen under the coalition is a real debate about | :06:07. | :06:11. | |
the kind of measures that should be in the Budget. Income versus wealth | :06:11. | :06:16. | |
taxes, consumption tax, how do we make our country more competitive. | :06:16. | :06:21. | |
I am talking about the leaks, why didn't he leak the bad bits as well | :06:21. | :06:27. | |
as the good bits? I don't necessarily think... I guess it is | :06:27. | :06:31. | |
an improvement on the day when Gordon Brown would not Lee go to | :06:31. | :06:35. | |
the Prime Minister what was in the Budget. -- would not leak to the | :06:35. | :06:40. | |
Prime Minister. We saw an arms race between these two last week, trying | :06:40. | :06:43. | |
to get out of their version of events, until they got to the point | :06:43. | :06:49. | |
where there was nothing left to leak apart from the bad news. | :06:49. | :06:53. | |
will give you the last word since your side was doing most of the | :06:53. | :06:59. | |
leaking. I think it is public negotiation. What the blue bits | :06:59. | :07:02. | |
were in the Budget and the yellow birds... This is coalition politics | :07:03. | :07:07. | |
and we better get used to it -- the yellow bits. Not the way that | :07:07. | :07:12. | |
coalitions work in Germany, Italy, Sweden or Norway, but that is | :07:12. | :07:17. | |
another issue. It is measures over your money and mine that have been | :07:17. | :07:27. | |
creating the headlines. It's the first thing we look for, | :07:27. | :07:29. | |
those all-important tax measures. Of course, the world's worst kept | :07:29. | :07:32. | |
secret was that the top rate tax for those earning over �150,000 | :07:32. | :07:36. | |
will be cut from 50p to 45p from April 2013. The measure that both | :07:36. | :07:39. | |
parties in the coalition are keen to take credit for is the rise in | :07:39. | :07:42. | |
the personal income tax allowance to �9,205. The higher rate tax | :07:42. | :07:45. | |
threshold, which is the level of salary you need to earn before | :07:45. | :07:48. | |
being drawn into the 40% tax band, is to be reduced from �42,475 to | :07:48. | :07:52. | |
�41,450, and there's going to be a new stamp duty rate of 7% for homes | :07:52. | :07:56. | |
worth over 2 million, as well as new measures to clamp down on tax | :07:56. | :08:06. | |
:08:06. | :08:06. | ||
avoidance. And finally there's the controversial measure that's been | :08:06. | :08:08. | |
dubbed, granny tax. The extra tax allowance pensioners currently | :08:08. | :08:11. | |
receive will be frozen until the personal allowances of those in | :08:11. | :08:14. | |
work catch up, and the allowance will be scrapped altogether for new | :08:14. | :08:20. | |
pensioners from 2013. Let's get the thoughts of Andrew Lilico from the | :08:20. | :08:23. | |
Institute of Economic Affairs, who's enjoying the sun in | :08:23. | :08:33. | |
:08:33. | :08:33. | ||
Westminster. The headlines say it all, this doesn't look pretty for | :08:33. | :08:39. | |
George Osborne, with his granny I think the most important measure | :08:39. | :08:42. | |
is the big rise in personal allowance. I think we have seen | :08:42. | :08:48. | |
quite a profound shift politically, from a time in the late 1980s | :08:48. | :08:50. | |
through to three or four years ago, went whenever you thought of | :08:51. | :08:55. | |
cutting taxes and particularly income taxes, you were going to be | :08:55. | :08:59. | |
cutting the basic rate. We had shifted decisively to a concert | :08:59. | :09:03. | |
where if you want to cut income tax you raised people out of tax | :09:03. | :09:07. | |
altogether by increasing the personal allowance. I think the | :09:07. | :09:11. | |
government will be remembered for deficit-reduction and a rise in | :09:11. | :09:15. | |
personal allowance. Do you agree that George Osborne did the right | :09:15. | :09:20. | |
thing in terms of freezing allowances for pensioners? I think | :09:20. | :09:23. | |
it is philosophically indefensible to have a lower tax rates for | :09:23. | :09:26. | |
pensioners. I think they were introduced in a very different time | :09:26. | :09:30. | |
when there were not really state pensions in the 1920s, when these | :09:30. | :09:35. | |
ideas first came in. I think they are long obsolete and there was a | :09:35. | :09:40. | |
very strong argument for increasing the basic state pension and also | :09:40. | :09:44. | |
means-tested pension allowances, and taking away these tax | :09:44. | :09:47. | |
allowances, which is what they have done. The mistake that the | :09:47. | :09:51. | |
Chancellor made was not to face up for that but to bury it away in the | :09:51. | :09:59. | |
detail. Looking at what he has done, there is a sort of unspoken rule, | :09:59. | :10:04. | |
as Gordon Brown found out, that if you do anything that is viewed as | :10:04. | :10:08. | |
heating, or reducing the benefits to pensioners, you run into trouble. | :10:08. | :10:12. | |
That is absolutely right. He would have been better to have argued for | :10:12. | :10:15. | |
it directly. I think he had a very strong case to make, that when you | :10:15. | :10:19. | |
thought about the increases in the state pension and means-tested | :10:19. | :10:22. | |
allowances, and also the ways in which pensioners themselves might | :10:22. | :10:27. | |
have gained from other kinds of tax measures, they were gainers out of | :10:27. | :10:31. | |
these measures overall. To make that argument he had to argue it | :10:31. | :10:35. | |
directly. Instead, he has buried it in the detail which has allowed | :10:35. | :10:40. | |
people do have a exaggerated notion of the granny tax. Much of the cost | :10:40. | :10:45. | |
associated with this granny tax idea is the inversion in the rise | :10:45. | :10:48. | |
of personal allowance, because otherwise they would have gained | :10:48. | :10:58. | |
:10:58. | :10:59. | ||
Let's talk to our panel about the tax. Let's come on to what you said | :10:59. | :11:03. | |
it was the real point in the Budget from the Lib Dem perspective, of | :11:03. | :11:10. | |
raising the threshold to �9,205. There will be no tax for most | :11:10. | :11:14. | |
people on the first sum that they earn of that amount. Were you aware | :11:14. | :11:18. | |
that one of the prices for that would be that 300,000 people would | :11:18. | :11:26. | |
have to be swept into the 40% tax One of the things I was advocating | :11:26. | :11:32. | |
a few days ago, you said, how am I going -- how are we going to pay | :11:32. | :11:36. | |
for the proposal and I said, one of the issues is clawing back on | :11:36. | :11:42. | |
pension tax relief. Is this a price worth paying? That 300,000 very | :11:42. | :11:47. | |
middle income people, with the families, who are not rich by any | :11:47. | :11:50. | |
strength of the imagination, particularly if they live in the | :11:50. | :11:54. | |
South East, where costs are much higher, were you aware that for | :11:54. | :12:00. | |
them, their marginal rate would become 40%? What the government has | :12:00. | :12:04. | |
done is precisely that measure, that we have wanted to make sure | :12:04. | :12:08. | |
that the raising of the threshold, the majority of the benefit was | :12:08. | :12:13. | |
failed by basic rate tax payers rather than at more exclusively | :12:13. | :12:18. | |
higher rate taxpayers -- was felled by. Pulling back the threshold | :12:18. | :12:25. | |
means higher rate taxpayers benefit but only to the same percent. | :12:25. | :12:30. | |
you happy that a tax break which was originally set by Nigel Watts - | :12:30. | :12:34. | |
- Nigel Lawson for the wealthy, is now faced by Derek middle income | :12:34. | :12:38. | |
earners, by long-serving -- long- serving policeman, the head of an | :12:38. | :12:41. | |
English department in a small comprehensive. Are you comfortable | :12:41. | :12:46. | |
that these people should be paying 40% to pay for your threshold? | :12:46. | :12:49. | |
Happy would be the wrong word. I am not in favour of heavy taxes on | :12:50. | :12:54. | |
people who go out to work. That is what you have done. The philosophy | :12:54. | :12:58. | |
is raising people out of income tax and giving a break to the people | :12:58. | :13:03. | |
who do go out to work. Higher-rate taxpayers will benefit, it is just | :13:03. | :13:09. | |
they will benefit at the same rate as basic rate taxpayers. Let's | :13:09. | :13:13. | |
stick with middle earners. Under your skin, if you are earning | :13:13. | :13:21. | |
between 50 and �60,000 -- under your scheme... In London and the | :13:21. | :13:24. | |
South East, that is not an unusual income, and you are a family of | :13:24. | :13:30. | |
three, what is your marginal tax rate going to be now? Be higher | :13:30. | :13:40. | |
:13:40. | :13:41. | ||
than it was before any idea how Have you will have 42% tax and | :13:41. | :13:46. | |
National Insurance, and 24.5% clawback from the child benefit. | :13:46. | :13:54. | |
Let me finish. If you are earning between 50 and 60,000, every extra | :13:54. | :14:02. | |
pound you earn between that gap, you will lose 66.5% of that �1. Are | :14:02. | :14:08. | |
you happy with that? It is not ideal but we face a very difficult | :14:09. | :14:12. | |
situation with the deficit. It is certainly preferable to the | :14:12. | :14:16. | |
previous situation, which was a straight cliff edge that we faced | :14:16. | :14:20. | |
just at the higher rate tax band. The people that may be trying to | :14:21. | :14:25. | |
better themselves and get on well be facing a 66.5% marginal rate of | :14:25. | :14:30. | |
tax? I completely agree that it is not ideal and in the long term, we | :14:30. | :14:34. | |
should seek to sort these issues out. The fact is that we are facing | :14:34. | :14:38. | |
a massive Budget deficit, we need to find the money to deal with that | :14:38. | :14:47. | |
deficit. And that we have tapered the withdrawal of child benefit | :14:47. | :14:52. | |
that -- in a way that hadn't been done before. The situation has | :14:52. | :14:56. | |
improved. Is it right that we ask the people lower down the income | :14:56. | :15:00. | |
scale, earning 20,000, to pay for the child benefit of people owning | :15:00. | :15:10. | |
:15:10. | :15:14. | ||
Look at the time from �100,000 and upwards. There is a very high. | :15:14. | :15:21. | |
There is nothing about that. point is... No. No. You made the | :15:21. | :15:26. | |
point. I want to ask you, what is the justice of people on �50,000 | :15:26. | :15:35. | |
paying a tax rate of .66.5%, when those over �140,000 will be paying | :15:35. | :15:40. | |
55%. Where is the justice? Those people earning over �150,000 will | :15:40. | :15:43. | |
be paying more money on property. Only if they are selling or buying | :15:43. | :15:48. | |
a house? Which is only 1% normally of the people in that bracket. | :15:48. | :15:53. | |
That group will be paying more and we have seen the �150,000 tax rate | :15:53. | :15:58. | |
didn't raise any money. The 50% tax rate... That's not true. | :15:58. | :16:02. | |
It raised no money. We saw a 25% drop in the level of income amongst | :16:02. | :16:05. | |
that group. Well, let's come on to that. | :16:05. | :16:08. | |
It was a tax that didn't raise any money. | :16:08. | :16:15. | |
No. No, you have had your say. Let me come on to someone else now. Are | :16:15. | :16:19. | |
you comfortable that Labour's main critique of this Budget which Ed | :16:19. | :16:24. | |
Miliband went on yesterday is the cut from 50 to 45 pence when HMRC | :16:24. | :16:30. | |
and the OBR say it cost about �100 million a year? Well, let's look at | :16:31. | :16:34. | |
the �100 million number. It is a number on which lots of the aspects | :16:35. | :16:41. | |
of this Budget hang. It is calculated on page 52 of the HMRC | :16:41. | :16:46. | |
report, table A2, the calculation shows that the HMRC anticipate | :16:46. | :16:51. | |
getting �3 billion a year steady state from the 50 pence rate, but | :16:51. | :16:56. | |
in the previous 51 pages of that document, in theoretical, under | :16:56. | :17:02. | |
graduate style economics, it suggests that the basically | :17:02. | :17:05. | |
principle would result in behavioural change that will | :17:05. | :17:10. | |
realise �2.9 billion. That's where the �100 million comes from, but in | :17:10. | :17:15. | |
the first year we netted �1 billion extra, not �100 million, �1 billion | :17:15. | :17:21. | |
and they concede that going forward it would be �3 billion. They don't | :17:21. | :17:27. | |
concede that? No, they do. They don't concede that. What they | :17:27. | :17:32. | |
say is that the transitional arrangements mean that �100, maybe | :17:32. | :17:35. | |
too low a calculation because people are ducking and diving, but | :17:35. | :17:40. | |
that going forward, you would get nothing like �3 billion. Now for | :17:40. | :17:43. | |
the sake of revenues... Well, if I can come back on that. | :17:44. | :17:48. | |
What I really want to get to you, is it really Labour's policy that | :17:48. | :17:52. | |
once again this country should have the highest top rate of income tax | :17:52. | :17:57. | |
of the G20? Is that Labour's policy? We think it is right now, | :17:57. | :18:02. | |
completely the wrong thing to do to cut the 50 pence rate. | :18:02. | :18:09. | |
We think they could have kept it. They could have recouped �1 billion | :18:09. | :18:13. | |
a year. And that would have been a fair way, but to use that money to | :18:13. | :18:21. | |
use that money to give a big bung, �40,000 to 14 millionaires, 14,000 | :18:21. | :18:24. | |
millionaires, it is crazy. It is the wrong priority. | :18:24. | :18:28. | |
The money is being recouped by property taxes on that group. | :18:28. | :18:34. | |
it is not. Yes, it is. It is five times the amount raised by that tax. | :18:34. | :18:42. | |
It is complete smoke in mirrors. You shouldn't even report this... | :18:42. | :18:46. | |
When income is mobile that time to tax that is fruitless, it is better | :18:46. | :18:51. | |
to put put those taxes on property and to reform our tax system in | :18:51. | :18:56. | |
that way. Why is it that every other country in the G20, why is it | :18:56. | :18:59. | |
that every other country in the G20 doesn't have a top rate as high as | :18:59. | :19:04. | |
that? Are they all wrong? Are they all wrong? What is the answer to | :19:04. | :19:10. | |
that question? It was a scorched earth policy. Let me answer it. The | :19:10. | :19:12. | |
reality is yes, we have got a high top rate. | :19:13. | :19:19. | |
You have got the highest? Yes, and what point does it kick in, at | :19:19. | :19:25. | |
�150,000. At what point does it kick in in trance 72,000 euros. The | :19:25. | :19:31. | |
top rate in this country was was only being levied on people earning | :19:31. | :19:35. | |
over �150,000. That's a large amount of money and those people | :19:35. | :19:40. | |
have been given a big bung. It is interesting to get a straight | :19:40. | :19:44. | |
answer. The Government is banking on the private sector to get the | :19:44. | :19:48. | |
economy back on track. Let's look at how they they plan to do it. | :19:48. | :19:54. | |
George Osborne has been proudly trum trumpeting that his Bug has | :19:54. | :19:57. | |
been designed to give businesses a helping hand. Let's look at the | :19:57. | :20:02. | |
details, corporation will be cut -- corporation tax will be cut to 24%. | :20:03. | :20:08. | |
By April 2014, it will be 22%. More enterprise zones are to be created | :20:08. | :20:12. | |
in Scotland and Wales and there will be tax relief for video games, | :20:12. | :20:16. | |
animation and so high end television productions. Good news | :20:16. | :20:21. | |
for this programme! �130 million is to be earmarked for | :20:21. | :20:24. | |
improving the rail network in the north of England and there will be | :20:24. | :20:27. | |
a consultation on simpifying the tax system for small businesses. We | :20:27. | :20:37. | |
:20:37. | :20:38. | ||
will all be able to shop until we drop during the Olympics with the | :20:38. | :20:43. | |
relaxation of the trading laws. Joining us now is Dr Adam Marshall. | :20:43. | :20:51. | |
Was it a Budget for business? it depends what size business you | :20:51. | :20:56. | |
are. Many of the smallest, the one man bands will be happy about | :20:56. | :21:00. | |
simplification of taxes, but there is a lot of solid citizen companies, | :21:00. | :21:04. | |
small and medium sized companies up and down the country that would | :21:04. | :21:09. | |
have looked at yesterday's Budget and said, "There is not a lot in it | :21:09. | :21:13. | |
for me. No relief on business rates. No relief on investment allowances | :21:13. | :21:19. | |
when a lot have plant and machinery they want to buy." No help to get | :21:19. | :21:23. | |
young people into work. A lot of of those companies are scratching | :21:23. | :21:26. | |
their heads and saying, "I think the Chancellor could have done | :21:26. | :21:31. | |
more.". I spent the day with small and medium sized businesses in the | :21:31. | :21:35. | |
Midlands and they echoed what you said. If the Government wanted to | :21:35. | :21:40. | |
encourage us to take on new employees and want us to grow, | :21:40. | :21:43. | |
there wasn't anything tangable enough for them? That's right. | :21:43. | :21:49. | |
There is a huge number of companies up and down the country, some some | :21:49. | :21:53. | |
with 50 or 150 employees, many will have been in business for | :21:53. | :21:57. | |
generations and they will say, "This feels like a Budget for big | :21:57. | :22:01. | |
corporations and the smallest of businesses." While companies will | :22:01. | :22:06. | |
be happy to see the back of the 50 pence tax rate, while they will be | :22:06. | :22:10. | |
happy to see corporation tax coming down, they wanted more immediate | :22:10. | :22:15. | |
help on growth and more reassurance and confidence from Government | :22:15. | :22:18. | |
policy. Business I spoke to yesterday were | :22:18. | :22:22. | |
disappointed that not more was done by fuel duty. They were united in | :22:22. | :22:28. | |
that? Abouts A bugbear for many companies particularly outside the | :22:28. | :22:31. | |
South East where the car is the key mode of transport for so many | :22:31. | :22:33. | |
people, not just for getting to work, but for conducting business. | :22:33. | :22:38. | |
Fuel duty is a big issue and it reverberates across rural | :22:38. | :22:41. | |
businesses communities and in many cities and towns outside the South | :22:41. | :22:48. | |
East. Let's look at this business of | :22:48. | :22:53. | |
corporation tax cut. It has been speeded up, it is down to 24%, the | :22:53. | :22:59. | |
idea is to go to 22% by 2014 and a longer term goal of getting to 20% | :22:59. | :23:05. | |
is the Government's position. What is the estimate of how much this | :23:05. | :23:08. | |
cut in corporation tax will add to business investment? | :23:08. | :23:18. | |
:23:18. | :23:20. | ||
Well, I don't know what the precise estimate is. It is 1% by 2016. It | :23:20. | :23:26. | |
will increase business investment by 1% by 2014. What will that do to | :23:26. | :23:32. | |
growth? What will that do to growth? It will add 0.1% to the | :23:32. | :23:38. | |
national income. So what is the point? That's an estimate. | :23:38. | :23:43. | |
Yes, it is the OBR estimate. Well, it is your office of budget | :23:43. | :23:46. | |
responsibility, you set it up? rates are one way of helping | :23:46. | :23:49. | |
businesses, but there are other things that we are doing in the | :23:49. | :23:52. | |
Budget so the airport capacity in the south-east is very important. | :23:52. | :23:59. | |
The reform to roads, roads tolling, moving tax, I hope, away from fuel | :23:59. | :24:02. | |
duty in the long-term. But how much will business | :24:02. | :24:07. | |
investment rise this year? Well, how much, we don't know at | :24:07. | :24:14. | |
this stage? Well according to the OBR it will be 7% less than the | :24:14. | :24:18. | |
original estimate. So it is 7%, it is growing by 7% less than it would | :24:18. | :24:24. | |
have done only a year ago. So it is down by 7% this year and will rise | :24:24. | :24:29. | |
by 1% by 2016, so where is the supply side breakthrough? | :24:29. | :24:34. | |
Well, what we need to do, we need to do more on jobs, specifically, | :24:34. | :24:37. | |
on exempting small businesses from employment regulations on those | :24:37. | :24:41. | |
steps, we need to take forward and that is being consulted on by the | :24:41. | :24:47. | |
Government at the moment. didn't mention for for jobs for | :24:47. | :24:57. | |
:24:57. | :24:57. | ||
young people yesterday? Why did he not do that? All right let me ask | :24:57. | :25:00. | |
your coalition colleague here. Do you believe this is a Budget for | :25:00. | :25:06. | |
growth? Yes. The eurozone growth forecasts have been downgraded by | :25:06. | :25:09. | |
the office for budget budget responsibility and the British | :25:09. | :25:13. | |
forecasts have been upgraded. But that's a joke. | :25:13. | :25:15. | |
But it is still going in the right direction. | :25:15. | :25:20. | |
Actually, it is not because they have downgraded the forecast for | :25:20. | :25:24. | |
2013. They have downgraded that? But still showing growth. | :25:24. | :25:29. | |
No, if you add the growth this year and next year, according to the | :25:29. | :25:33. | |
office of office responsibility it is flat? And unemployment falling | :25:33. | :25:38. | |
throughout that period as well. I need to get awe copy of the red | :25:38. | :25:44. | |
book. If If this is a Budget for growth, why has the OBR not changed | :25:44. | :25:49. | |
the growth projections? The OBR is is showing stagnant growth this | :25:49. | :25:54. | |
year. It has reduced growth for next year and it has kept it the | :25:54. | :26:00. | |
same for 2014 and 2015, if it was a Budget for growth, why was the OBR | :26:00. | :26:04. | |
not able to uprate its growth projection? You have to take | :26:05. | :26:08. | |
account what is going on in the rest of the world. Our friends from | :26:08. | :26:12. | |
the Labour Party for the last two years they have been predicting a | :26:12. | :26:16. | |
double-dip recession. That has not happened. Our independent... So it | :26:16. | :26:19. | |
is the eurozone's fault, is that what you are saying? | :26:19. | :26:23. | |
Well, the eurozone has... And this is the same eurozone I believe that | :26:23. | :26:28. | |
your party used to want us to join? Well, if you want to go back 13 | :26:28. | :26:32. | |
years and rehearse the arguments between 1997 and 1999 about whether | :26:32. | :26:38. | |
it was right to join the eurozone, we can do that. What would Labour | :26:38. | :26:44. | |
do to encourage business to invest? We would have introduced measures | :26:44. | :26:48. | |
for small businesses, the NIC holiday, we have talked about would | :26:48. | :26:51. | |
have stimulated the economy. It would have been something as we | :26:51. | :26:55. | |
heard earlier on that would have helped small business take on new | :26:55. | :26:58. | |
workers. We would have cut VAT across-the-board which would have | :26:58. | :27:02. | |
been a stimulus to the retail sector. It would have been... | :27:02. | :27:06. | |
Interest rates would have gone up? I don't think interest rates would | :27:06. | :27:09. | |
have gone up. Really, don't you follow the bond | :27:09. | :27:16. | |
markets? If we introduced a 2.5% reduction in VAT. | :27:16. | :27:19. | |
A big risk? No, I don't think that would have been a big risk. | :27:19. | :27:26. | |
Really? No, in the current climate? You can't guarantee that? I don't | :27:26. | :27:30. | |
think most economists would suggest if you made a temporary cut to VAT | :27:30. | :27:35. | |
you would see the bond market... Most analysts would say if the | :27:35. | :27:39. | |
Government was to leave its deficit reduction plan. | :27:39. | :27:42. | |
That's different. They are having to borrow more | :27:42. | :27:45. | |
money as a result of more people being out of work. We know the | :27:45. | :27:52. | |
truth it is �158 billion extra. OBR factored the measures in the Budget | :27:52. | :27:56. | |
and it is projecting flat growth. We have to move on. We have a lot | :27:56. | :28:01. | |
of ground to cover here, you know! I will be looking for a bonus. Oh, | :28:01. | :28:04. | |
you are not allowed bonuses anymore! Let's hear what Mr | :28:04. | :28:08. | |
Osbourne said about the economy. Yes the office for budgetary | :28:08. | :28:12. | |
responsibility has been looking into its crystal ball. The growth | :28:13. | :28:18. | |
forecasts for this year have been revised up. The forecasts for 2013 | :28:18. | :28:26. | |
is 2% and for 20 shrks the OBR thinks it will be 2.7%. | :28:26. | :28:31. | |
Unemployment is forecast to peak at 1.67 million by the end of 2012 and | :28:31. | :28:34. | |
it is thought inflation will fall during the rest of this year and it | :28:34. | :28:42. | |
will be close to the 2% target by early 2013. Those borrowing figures, | :28:42. | :28:52. | |
this year we are set to borrow �136 billion. It could be as low as �21 | :28:52. | :28:58. | |
billion by 2016/17. This will mean our total debt could be nearly �1.5 | :28:58. | :29:03. | |
trillion. Eye watering. We can speak to Allister Heath. Thank you | :29:03. | :29:07. | |
for coming on the programme. Let's look at the borrowing figures. Only | :29:07. | :29:10. | |
�1 billion than was forecast, disappointing for the Chancellor? | :29:10. | :29:14. | |
It is not great news. For the first six or seven months of the year, | :29:14. | :29:18. | |
the Chancellor spent a lot less money than he was expecting to and | :29:18. | :29:22. | |
the figures look better, but suddenly yesterday, one of the | :29:22. | :29:25. | |
additional figures that was released in addition to the Budget | :29:26. | :29:30. | |
showed there is a lot of borrowing going on in February. It is not | :29:30. | :29:33. | |
really improving at any faster rate. My big worry however is the growth | :29:33. | :29:37. | |
figures. The growth figures for this year are probably realistic, | :29:37. | :29:42. | |
but for next year onwards, they are hopeful and in four years time, | :29:42. | :29:47. | |
they are optimistic. Anyone talk being 3% growth. That's a massive | :29:47. | :29:52. | |
gamble on growth. You have this big problem which is all the forecasts | :29:52. | :29:56. | |
rely on the large rebound in activity in three or four years and | :29:56. | :30:00. | |
not enough on spending cuts at the moment. I don't think that the | :30:00. | :30:03. | |
Chancellor did enough to boost growth in his Budget. There were | :30:04. | :30:08. | |
some good measures like on cutting the top rate of tax and corporation | :30:08. | :30:13. | |
taxks but too few people saw their marginal tax rates fall. Only 7% of | :30:13. | :30:17. | |
the public saw their marginal tax rates fall and a lot of people saw | :30:17. | :30:20. | |
it increase because of the way child benefit will be taken away | :30:20. | :30:22. | |
from people. What do you think would be more | :30:22. | :30:26. | |
realistic in terms of growth prospects? How much lower do you | :30:26. | :30:31. | |
think they will be? It is impossible to gauge these things | :30:32. | :30:35. | |
accurately. It is unrealistic to think that you will get such a | :30:35. | :30:39. | |
rebound in growth. Anything could happen. The the eurozone crisis | :30:39. | :30:46. | |
could continue. China could slow down. There is huge uncertainties. | :30:46. | :30:51. | |
The whole of the long-term public finances of this country rely on | :30:51. | :30:54. | |
growth forecasts and the Government has not done enough to achieve the | :30:54. | :30:57. | |
growth forecast. There was good good stuff in the Budget when it | :30:58. | :31:03. | |
came to growth. This was a Budget for growth, but a Budget for growth | :31:03. | :31:05. | |
because he should have cut more things and cut more taxes. | :31:05. | :31:14. | |
We are joined by viewers from Scotland, welcome to The Daily | :31:15. | :31:19. | |
Politics. We have been asking questions about the state of the | :31:19. | :31:29. | |
:31:29. | :31:32. | ||
economy. Let me come to you, Owen Smith. The coalition inherited a | :31:32. | :31:38. | |
deficit of over 11% of GDP. By 2016, they will have got that deficit | :31:38. | :31:44. | |
down to about 1% of GDP. That is a result, isn't it? If they achieve | :31:44. | :31:49. | |
it. It is reliant on them achieving growth numbers that most people | :31:49. | :31:57. | |
think are pretty heroic in their assumptions. These are the growth | :31:57. | :32:00. | |
assumptions that Alistair Darling made in his four-year plan, they | :32:00. | :32:06. | |
are no different from yours. That is not quite true. We were | :32:06. | :32:09. | |
anticipating that the trajectory was going to be a lot fluttered | :32:09. | :32:13. | |
towards the 3%, as opposed to where we are right now, having gone into | :32:13. | :32:18. | |
a trough, anticipating this great big bounce back. There is a very | :32:18. | :32:23. | |
big difference between the level of growth we were anticipating. Our | :32:23. | :32:30. | |
economy was growing as we left office, at 2%. It is now growing at | :32:30. | :32:34. | |
0.8%. That was before the eurozone crisis, where every economy has | :32:34. | :32:41. | |
been downgraded. Absolutely true. I was at a business breakfast myself, | :32:41. | :32:48. | |
business people don't feel this was a Budget for growth. I don't | :32:48. | :32:52. | |
understand how your policy is any different from the coalition's. If | :32:52. | :32:59. | |
you take a graph of how debt, which is a key motive... The Chancellor | :32:59. | :33:04. | |
mixed up the debt and the deficit yesterday. If you take a chance -- | :33:04. | :33:08. | |
chart of how debt was to accumulate and Alistair Darling, it peaks at | :33:08. | :33:16. | |
1.4 trillion by 2016. If you take this government's chart, it pizza - | :33:16. | :33:20. | |
- it peaks at 1.4 trillion in 2016. Your trajectories are the same and | :33:20. | :33:25. | |
I sometimes wonder what you are arguing about. We are going about | :33:25. | :33:28. | |
the manner in which we would have tried to bring down the debt over | :33:28. | :33:34. | |
all. You are not bringing down the debt. They are borrowing an extra 6 | :33:34. | :33:37. | |
billion this February versus last February. They are borrowing in | :33:37. | :33:42. | |
order to pay for more people out of work and fewer people paying tax. | :33:42. | :33:46. | |
If we were in power, I think we would have seen more stimulus in | :33:46. | :33:56. | |
the economy. Is the Darling plan still Labour policy. Yeah. Yes, of | :33:56. | :34:01. | |
course, we would be halving the deficit over this Parliament. The | :34:01. | :34:07. | |
status of this economy that we are going to inherit is very different. | :34:07. | :34:10. | |
What happened under the Labour government is that we saw a | :34:10. | :34:15. | |
reduction in productivity, of growth that was fuelled by debt and | :34:15. | :34:19. | |
public spending. We have had to put a stop to that. It was fuelled by | :34:19. | :34:23. | |
public spending and now we have got a debt which is higher than it has | :34:23. | :34:30. | |
ever been before. I think the point is, there is no magic bullet. | :34:30. | :34:35. | |
had a pound bought some time -- every time somebody said that, I | :34:35. | :34:39. | |
would be able to buy a magic bullet. Can you let your coalition partner | :34:40. | :34:47. | |
speak? Having sat through umpteen debates for the last few years, | :34:47. | :34:50. | |
every Labour backbencher who speaks opposes one aspect of what the | :34:50. | :34:54. | |
coalition is doing, whether it is the VAT rise, changes in tax rates, | :34:54. | :34:58. | |
what we are doing to reform the benefit system. There is no | :34:58. | :35:02. | |
coherence amongst the Labour Party. Or what on earth they should do to | :35:02. | :35:06. | |
tackle this deficit. You may say you want to reduce the deficit. | :35:06. | :35:09. | |
Among still parliamentary colleagues, none of them support | :35:09. | :35:14. | |
any of the measures that the government is doing. One thing we | :35:14. | :35:18. | |
are clear and coherent on, it is the wrong thing to do yesterday, to | :35:18. | :35:23. | |
cut pensioners' income in order to give a tax benefit... Their incomes | :35:23. | :35:33. | |
:35:33. | :35:36. | ||
have not been cut. The allowances How do you feel about �10 billion | :35:36. | :35:39. | |
more of welfare cuts? That is possibly going to happen towards | :35:39. | :35:44. | |
the end of the parliament, or early in the next Parliament. But of | :35:44. | :35:47. | |
course, we can have a major reform of the welfare system through | :35:47. | :35:51. | |
Universal Credit, starting next year, in order to deal with the | :35:51. | :35:55. | |
labyrinth of benefit entitlements that Gordon Brown has left behind, | :35:55. | :35:59. | |
and to make it clear with tax reforms that being in work really | :35:59. | :36:05. | |
does pay. I think we better leave it there. Plenty more to talk about | :36:05. | :36:08. | |
in this Budget. The interesting thing for the newspapers will be | :36:08. | :36:13. | |
not how bad it was today, but what it looks like at the weekend. Iain | :36:13. | :36:17. | |
Macleod used to say that a Budget that was well received the day | :36:17. | :36:20. | |
after would be trashed by the weekend, and warned that was | :36:20. | :36:27. | |
trashed the day after would be well-received... We will see... If | :36:27. | :36:32. | |
that maxim holds up. Thanks to all three of you. Now to Afghanistan, | :36:32. | :36:36. | |
an issue that came to the fore at yesterday's PMQs. Lets take a look | :36:36. | :36:43. | |
Following the Prime Minister's recent trip to Washington, we now | :36:43. | :36:46. | |
know that the timetable for the withdrawal of British and other | :36:46. | :36:49. | |
international combat forces in Afghanistan will be reviewed at the | :36:49. | :36:53. | |
NATO summit in Chicago in May. The Prime Minister has previously set | :36:53. | :36:57. | |
out a timetable that would see combat operations for British | :36:57. | :37:03. | |
troops seized by the end of 2014. Given the recent statements by the | :37:03. | :37:06. | |
US Defence Secretary and the French President about an accelerated | :37:06. | :37:12. | |
timetable for their trips, can the Prime Minister confirm the British | :37:12. | :37:16. | |
Government's position? -- their troops. What I had said absolutely | :37:16. | :37:20. | |
stance which is that we will not be in a combat role in Afghanistan | :37:20. | :37:24. | |
after 2014, nor will we have anything like the number of groups | :37:24. | :37:28. | |
we have now. We will be performing a training task, particularly | :37:28. | :37:32. | |
helping with the officer training academy. Between now and 2014, it | :37:32. | :37:35. | |
is important we have a sensible profile for the reduction in troop | :37:35. | :37:40. | |
numbers. That should be largely based on the conditions in terms of | :37:40. | :37:43. | |
the three parts of Helmand Province that we are still responsible for, | :37:43. | :37:53. | |
:37:53. | :37:55. | ||
and the transition that takes place. Can the Prime Minister tell us what | :37:55. | :38:00. | |
his assessment of the significance of the Taliban suspending talks is, | :38:00. | :38:06. | |
and does he agree that we owe it to our troops to be more focused on | :38:06. | :38:12. | |
securing a lasting settlement. Since taking office, and the last | :38:12. | :38:16. | |
government took this view as well, the British position has been put | :38:16. | :38:20. | |
that we need to have the best possible solution for the people of | :38:20. | :38:25. | |
Afghanistan. Britain has been pushing for reconciliation and | :38:25. | :38:27. | |
integration and I had very productive talks with President | :38:27. | :38:30. | |
Obama last week, because the American do is the same. They want | :38:30. | :38:35. | |
to support that political process. Of course, the Taliban have said | :38:35. | :38:38. | |
what they said last week. I would make this point. We are committed | :38:38. | :38:42. | |
to handing over to the Afghan government, the Afghan military, | :38:42. | :38:46. | |
the Afghan police, and the numbers of Afghan military and police are | :38:46. | :38:50. | |
on track. We are committed to doing that at the end of 2014. We believe | :38:50. | :38:56. | |
it can happen with a satisfactory outcome for the United Kingdom. It | :38:56. | :39:00. | |
would be better for everyone concerned if it was accompanied by | :39:00. | :39:06. | |
a political settlement. And joining us now for the rest of | :39:06. | :39:09. | |
the programme is Colonel Tim Collins, who served in the Iraq War | :39:09. | :39:13. | |
and is now a member of the Conservative party. Welcome. | :39:13. | :39:17. | |
not a member of the Conservative Party. Thank you for correcting us, | :39:17. | :39:22. | |
we will get rid of the researcher who put that down! Bid was probably | :39:22. | :39:31. | |
And we're also joined by the Shadow Defence Secretary, Jim Murphy. Is | :39:31. | :39:38. | |
it an exit strategy that you think will work? After a fashion. If -- | :39:38. | :39:42. | |
it is Afghanistan after all. The question is, is the government and | :39:42. | :39:45. | |
military going to be more robust than the one that the Russians left | :39:45. | :39:49. | |
behind? I think it will be. There is a great deal of effort going | :39:49. | :39:56. | |
into training and I know it is the main focus of the I SFA if -- is | :39:56. | :40:03. | |
You think you will be ready to handle their own affairs when | :40:03. | :40:08. | |
combat troops leave in 2014? difficulty they have is there is a | :40:08. | :40:12. | |
balance between people who have been professionalised and the bulk, | :40:12. | :40:16. | |
as in large numbers of Afghan police. With some of those, the | :40:16. | :40:21. | |
quality is not there but at the heart of it, there is quality. The | :40:21. | :40:24. | |
difficulty is convincing the population do have faith in their | :40:24. | :40:30. | |
armed forces and their police force -- convincing the population to | :40:30. | :40:35. | |
have faith. Do you think the exit strategy is going to work from a | :40:35. | :40:39. | |
timetable point of view? That the bulk of police and armed forces in | :40:39. | :40:42. | |
Afghanistan will be strong enough to hold the country where it is? | :40:42. | :40:50. | |
just don't know yet. We hope so but we don't know so. I agree with what | :40:50. | :40:54. | |
David Cameron and Ed Miliband was saying. I thought David Cameron was | :40:54. | :40:58. | |
a little cavalier when he said that we can leave without a political | :40:58. | :41:03. | |
settlement. I find that really difficult to understand. If that is | :41:03. | :41:07. | |
now the government's policy, it is quite a significant shift. When the | :41:07. | :41:14. | |
Soviets left, it lasted three years. We have been in four was in | :41:14. | :41:21. | |
Afghanistan, this is the 5th. point is, everybody is talking | :41:21. | :41:24. | |
about politics and they have missed the point. Why go there a lot, I | :41:24. | :41:28. | |
employ people there. It is not about politics. The Taliban doesn't | :41:28. | :41:33. | |
exist. The Taliban is a blanket term. There are networks and groups. | :41:33. | :41:38. | |
These people have become criminal entrepreneurs. We don't see any | :41:38. | :41:42. | |
evidence and I work closely with the police, of anyone with any | :41:42. | :41:47. | |
desire whatsoever to roll tanks and takeover couple like Saigon, there | :41:47. | :41:52. | |
is no desire there. -- takeover Kabul. They would like the regime | :41:52. | :41:57. | |
in place to continue them to make money and I think that would go on. | :41:57. | :42:02. | |
In a sandwich in between, there are enough decent Afghans and decent | :42:02. | :42:06. | |
policeman who want to tackle the crime. It is all about crime, not | :42:06. | :42:11. | |
war but crime. Would they be in a position to deal with that? If | :42:11. | :42:16. | |
warlords start taking over parts of Afghanistan... Why would parasites | :42:16. | :42:22. | |
kill the beast they live off? you say there is no need for a | :42:22. | :42:28. | |
political settlement... I am not saying that. Politics are not a | :42:28. | :42:32. | |
higher priority in modern Afghanistan. Should they? Of course, | :42:32. | :42:38. | |
but... What sort of political settlement should there be? If | :42:38. | :42:41. | |
David Cameron is saying we could live without a political settlement, | :42:41. | :42:50. | |
is it to cavalier? The Taliban, to use the broad term, and the various | :42:50. | :42:54. | |
other smaller groups, criminal groups, they rank and file follow | :42:54. | :42:58. | |
their leaders. The rank and file know what they are fighting against. | :42:58. | :43:02. | |
They have no idea on earth what they are fighting for, there is no | :43:02. | :43:05. | |
political aspiration. If we had a political aspiration, we could talk | :43:05. | :43:09. | |
to them but they don't know what to ask for. There is a politics that | :43:09. | :43:12. | |
tolerates the degree of corruption that you are speaking about and we | :43:12. | :43:16. | |
have to make some progress in that. There is a politics that allows and | :43:16. | :43:19. | |
governed space to develop again, where malevolent elements can | :43:19. | :43:23. | |
strike against neighbours and others across the world, and that | :43:23. | :43:26. | |
is why politics is very important. Not the Westminster Classic | :43:26. | :43:33. | |
democratic model, none of us think it is that sort of thing. It still | :43:33. | :43:38. | |
sounds very vague. It is a distasteful thing to say and we are | :43:38. | :43:44. | |
not having the conversation with the public debt, but a degree of | :43:44. | :43:46. | |
Taliban involvement in the government of Afghanistan now seems | :43:46. | :43:51. | |
inevitable. How do we achieve that in a way that on us what the UK | :43:51. | :43:57. | |
forces have been through in the past decade, -- a way that honours. | :43:57. | :44:01. | |
Are we going there to take those people on, deal with Al-Qaeda and | :44:01. | :44:05. | |
take those people on. That is absolutely the point. The criminal | :44:05. | :44:08. | |
elements, the criminal entrepreneurs have been allowed to | :44:08. | :44:14. | |
set the pace. The Taliban, and other groups, whatever they are | :44:14. | :44:17. | |
called, need to have a political agenda that is other than someone | :44:17. | :44:23. | |
else's agenda, other than the Pakistani intelligence services | :44:23. | :44:29. | |
agenda. They need a Pashtun, or northern alliance agenda. That does | :44:29. | :44:33. | |
not exist. I think we might have missed the opportunity to help them | :44:33. | :44:39. | |
develop that. We have to move on, you have only got a few minutes | :44:39. | :44:49. | |
:44:49. | :44:51. | ||
left. What is your response that Two this idea was put forward by | :44:51. | :44:54. | |
the Labour government, that they want to look at the plan on carrier | :44:54. | :44:58. | |
jets. Your viewers would have followed this in detail yet. When | :44:58. | :45:02. | |
the new government came in, they inherited a plan of two aircraft | :45:02. | :45:06. | |
carriers, the biggest in the Royal Navy's history, three times longer | :45:07. | :45:11. | |
than a football pitch. That was the traditional thing that people will | :45:11. | :45:15. | |
have seen, Harrier jump jets, vertical take-off and landing. The | :45:16. | :45:19. | |
government said, let's go with an American-style, Top Gun traditional | :45:19. | :45:24. | |
take off. They look as if they are going back to the original plan. | :45:24. | :45:28. | |
What is the evidence they are looking at this again? They are no | :45:28. | :45:32. | |
longer defending their own policy. The media was full of stories, a | :45:32. | :45:36. | |
soft landing of a massive U-turn. It is a huge embarrassment, | :45:37. | :45:41. | |
political hubris. A sense that they have wasted possibly hundreds of | :45:41. | :45:46. | |
millions of pounds in coming up with a third policy, when there are | :45:46. | :45:49. | |
rarely any two options. The difficulty here is they sold the | :45:49. | :45:53. | |
entire carrier fleet. All 72 of those planes have been sent to | :45:53. | :45:57. | |
America. How long have we got this period of time without question I | :45:57. | :46:02. | |
asked for an urgent question today, it was not granted. I think it is a | :46:02. | :46:05. | |
real worry that an island nation cannot put an aircraft carrier to | :46:05. | :46:10. | |
see, because the one we have crashed into a tug last week. | :46:10. | :46:20. | |
:46:20. | :46:21. | ||
Is this worrying? It is worrying. All three parties would like a | :46:21. | :46:25. | |
European-style defence force as opposed to an expeditionary army. | :46:25. | :46:30. | |
Does it leave us vulnerable? intention is to hide amongst the | :46:30. | :46:36. | |
Europeans. That we would have an aggressive camping organisation | :46:36. | :46:39. | |
like the other Europeans and when things went wrong, hiding in large | :46:39. | :46:46. | |
numbers would protect us. We would have no cas pit why toe why -- pa | :46:46. | :46:49. | |
pa passity to -- capacity to project power. | :46:49. | :46:55. | |
We are not going to have aeroplanes flying off it. I keep saying you | :46:55. | :46:59. | |
don't have to be a military strategist to know what aircraft | :46:59. | :47:03. | |
carriers are meant to do. The jump jet would be more | :47:03. | :47:10. | |
flexible? It doesn't have as much power. It doesn't have long legs, | :47:10. | :47:18. | |
but it can land wherever you wish and the Government got involved in | :47:18. | :47:22. | |
a Defence Review which was rushed. It seems after a lot of money and | :47:22. | :47:25. | |
time, they have gone back to a more expensive option of what we had | :47:26. | :47:29. | |
before. If you told the Speaker that he was | :47:29. | :47:36. | |
going to ask a kaleidoscopic question he might have allowed it! | :47:36. | :47:42. | |
Who would want to be a police commission sner. -- commissioner? | :47:42. | :47:47. | |
Our guest, Tim Collins does! We sent Giles out to find out what the | :47:47. | :47:49. | |
job intales. -- entails. | :47:49. | :47:53. | |
Across the wide range of duties our police have, there is always that | :47:53. | :47:57. | |
question of to hom are they accountable -- whom are they | :47:57. | :48:00. | |
accountable when we are unhappy, a Chief Constable, a police authority, | :48:00. | :48:04. | |
a mayor or a commissioner? In Opposition, the Conservatives | :48:04. | :48:07. | |
propose add new role of elected police and crime commissioners in | :48:07. | :48:11. | |
England and Wales. At the time it is fair to say it was hard to find | :48:11. | :48:15. | |
people, including police, who would warm to the idea. Nonetheless, the | :48:15. | :48:19. | |
post will exist and in November this year elections will take place. | :48:19. | :48:24. | |
In 41 force areas outside London where the mayor is the PCC. | :48:24. | :48:29. | |
Commissioners in the biggest force areas will receive salaries of over | :48:29. | :48:35. | |
�100,000 to set priorities for their police force, oversee budgets | :48:35. | :48:38. | |
and hire the Chief Constable. So far emerging candidates have | :48:38. | :48:42. | |
something in common that begs questions. The main problem with | :48:42. | :48:49. | |
this idea is that the risk that elected politicians will interfere | :48:49. | :48:52. | |
in police operational matters and that's the big challenge and of | :48:52. | :48:55. | |
course, what we have seen so far the majority of people who have put | :48:55. | :49:00. | |
their name into the frame are, of course, politicians or perhaps past | :49:00. | :49:02. | |
politicians. The Conservatives made it a | :49:02. | :49:05. | |
political role and if you have political office, you have to be | :49:05. | :49:08. | |
accountable. You have to be accountable to the public, but it | :49:08. | :49:12. | |
is right to have accountability back to the party structures. | :49:12. | :49:16. | |
Lib Dems will not be giving central party funding to their candidates | :49:16. | :49:22. | |
who may wish to stand. They will not stop them standing, they will | :49:22. | :49:25. | |
not support something they never supported in the first place. | :49:25. | :49:29. | |
Labour are deciding to contest many of the elections because in certain | :49:29. | :49:33. | |
parts of the UK they have a good chance of winning, but there is an | :49:33. | :49:38. | |
elephant in the room. What we hope of course, that will happen, we | :49:38. | :49:42. | |
have strong independent candidates who are not attached to a party, | :49:42. | :49:47. | |
who may have a background that is relevant in terms of policing who | :49:47. | :49:51. | |
may want to come forward. So far there is no real signs that | :49:51. | :49:55. | |
happening and for some the party angle presents a dilemma for number | :49:55. | :50:01. | |
five of the 1829 principles of the police, to seek and preserve public | :50:01. | :50:07. | |
favour not by pandering to public opinion, but by constantly | :50:07. | :50:10. | |
demonstrating impartial service to law in complete independence of | :50:10. | :50:14. | |
policy. Whoever wins the roles will need to demonstrate they can let | :50:14. | :50:20. | |
police do that from Chief Constables to beat officers and | :50:20. | :50:23. | |
preserve the manifestoes upon which they stood. | :50:23. | :50:30. | |
Tim Collins is is hoping to stand as a Conservative candidate. Why | :50:31. | :50:33. | |
aren't you a member of the Conservative Party? Because I have | :50:33. | :50:36. | |
never been a member of any political parties. | :50:36. | :50:39. | |
Don't you have to be a member of the Conservative Party? We will | :50:39. | :50:43. | |
find out after the local elections in May whether the Conservatives | :50:43. | :50:49. | |
want to nominate me as their candidate. They may not. They may | :50:49. | :50:51. | |
have other members who are better candidates. | :50:51. | :50:56. | |
Now, why do you want to do it? One would argue that you are going to | :50:56. | :51:01. | |
come in at a time, presiding over severe cuts to a police force? | :51:01. | :51:05. | |
I think, the first thing which is that, you know, I am not massively | :51:05. | :51:08. | |
keen to do it, but I have been asked by a number of friends and | :51:08. | :51:13. | |
rank and file policemen saying, "We are worried about this. Will you do | :51:13. | :51:18. | |
it?" I said yes perhaps rather precociously. I was in Gravesend | :51:18. | :51:23. | |
last week on one hand talking to victims of crime which I run a | :51:23. | :51:27. | |
company that employees policemen and I was able to ask them what | :51:27. | :51:33. | |
they would regard as would be without a doubt attempted murders | :51:33. | :51:43. | |
or indeed for uninvestigated. In one case a man who was bitten and | :51:43. | :51:51. | |
covered in is a in saliva. Policemen say that morale is very | :51:51. | :51:54. | |
low and the policemen are not encouraged to do their job and | :51:54. | :51:58. | |
there is no support. What sort of politician | :51:58. | :52:02. | |
commissioner -- police commissioner would you be. There are references | :52:02. | :52:08. | |
to you wanting to be like one of the New York-style commissioners? | :52:08. | :52:12. | |
What I would like to see with myself as the chairman of the of | :52:12. | :52:16. | |
the board, the Chief Constable getting on with doing the job | :52:16. | :52:21. | |
without having to look over his shoulder with some bloated | :52:21. | :52:24. | |
authority looking for statistics. What I would like to see and I grew | :52:24. | :52:28. | |
up in Northern Ireland. We had an effective police reserve. I would | :52:28. | :52:32. | |
like to see the specials turned into a police reserve. I would like | :52:32. | :52:34. | |
to see more people coming from communities and volunteering to | :52:34. | :52:39. | |
become involved in policing. Do you think the country needs all that | :52:39. | :52:42. | |
concentration of policing power in the hands of another elected | :52:42. | :52:46. | |
politician? The country doesn't. It is rejnal. | :52:46. | :52:53. | |
It is -- regional, it is each police force. Do we really need | :52:53. | :53:00. | |
that? As opposed to an unelected councillor. In Kent what we receive | :53:00. | :53:04. | |
from our police authority is a glossy magazine which most people | :53:04. | :53:08. | |
recycle and lots of statistics with any amount of photographs of the | :53:08. | :53:12. | |
lady in charge. Does that do us any good? Independence, that's what | :53:12. | :53:15. | |
Labour has been arguing about, why they don't think it is a good idea. | :53:15. | :53:19. | |
Who would be scrute nidsing -- scrutinising you in that position? | :53:19. | :53:24. | |
Who would be saying, "You have become too politicised." There | :53:24. | :53:27. | |
wouldn't be a strong enough body to say that you overstepped the line? | :53:27. | :53:33. | |
It is what we call democracy. It is the the voters who decide, whatever | :53:33. | :53:35. | |
happens on the 15th November, you can be certain of this, the people | :53:35. | :53:40. | |
of Kent and everywhere else will get the police force they deserve. | :53:40. | :53:43. | |
Briefly, the cost, is it the right time to spend because it will cost | :53:43. | :53:48. | |
a lot of money to run the elections, the pay the salaries of the police | :53:48. | :53:52. | |
commission commissioners and the figures are out there that say it | :53:52. | :53:56. | |
would fund 3,000 police officers? Well, what is going to happen to | :53:56. | :54:01. | |
the police authorities. There are 16 people doing the job. I have | :54:01. | :54:04. | |
said I won't accept a salary. I am Irish and my maths aren't great, | :54:04. | :54:10. | |
but that looks like a saving! I haven't worked it out. Trust me, | :54:10. | :54:13. | |
it is. When you meant the the Specials, | :54:14. | :54:20. | |
you didn't mean the B Specials? will call them the B Specials if | :54:20. | :54:26. | |
you like. We sent Adam Adam out to read the | :54:26. | :54:32. | |
It is a case of bad headlines for the Chancellor. The Guardian | :54:32. | :54:38. | |
calling his Budget scth cynical and deluded." The Daily Telegraph are | :54:38. | :54:44. | |
furious about the granny tax. Could that headline be any bigger or | :54:44. | :54:48. | |
angrier? They are angry about it in The Daily Mail saying that George | :54:48. | :54:52. | |
Osborne picked the pockets of pensioners, but they are angry that | :54:52. | :54:58. | |
he wasn't wearing a tie hours just before delivering the Budget. The | :54:58. | :55:03. | |
Daily Mirror have have gone for a theft theme as well with George | :55:03. | :55:08. | |
Osborne and David Cameron dressed up as muggers. The Sun have gone | :55:08. | :55:12. | |
for humiliation, with the chancellor depicted as Wallace, a | :55:12. | :55:16. | |
reference to the tax break he introduced for animation companies. | :55:16. | :55:20. | |
The prize for best gimmicks goes to the Times. Not only have they got a | :55:20. | :55:25. | |
50 pence with George Osborne and the taxes chainsaw massacre on it, | :55:25. | :55:29. | |
but inside they have a monopoly themed explainer of the Budget and | :55:29. | :55:35. | |
best of all, how the characters of Downton Abbey will be affected by | :55:35. | :55:45. | |
:55:45. | :55:53. | ||
the Chancellor's decisions. We are joined by John John Pienaar. | :55:53. | :55:59. | |
I can't remember in recent times a worse set of front pages for any | :55:59. | :56:04. | |
chancellor than this morning? nor can I. You look at the Daily | :56:04. | :56:08. | |
Telegraph, the Conservative-leaning Daily Telegraph by describes it as | :56:08. | :56:11. | |
a Budget that Gordon Brown would have been proud of and no part that | :56:11. | :56:17. | |
is meant as a compliment, they mean shifty, deceitful, full of tricks. | :56:17. | :56:23. | |
My sense of this is they have spun themselves into a tangle. So much | :56:23. | :56:30. | |
of the bUlght was leaked. A lot -- Budget was leaked. A lot came out. | :56:30. | :56:33. | |
There was industrial leaking of the Budget. The bit they didn't leak | :56:33. | :56:39. | |
was the bit about pensioners which amplified coverage of that story | :56:39. | :56:49. | |
:56:49. | :56:52. | ||
and it was a big big enough story. There are Deeper currants at work. | :56:52. | :56:58. | |
A lot of the attack from what you might call the Tory press or I | :56:58. | :57:03. | |
think more accurately the Tory inclined press, has hostility to | :57:03. | :57:08. | |
Cameron as well. The Telegraph, The Mail, they are not cheerleaders for | :57:08. | :57:11. | |
Mr Cameron, they like an opportunity to give him a kicking | :57:11. | :57:14. | |
as they have done this morning? There is a certain amount of that. | :57:14. | :57:19. | |
The Sun as well? Include The Sun. There is a feeling on the righter | :57:19. | :57:22. | |
end of Fleet Street that maybe the Government could be a bit more | :57:22. | :57:26. | |
Euro-sceptic than it has been, that it could be more truly Conservative | :57:26. | :57:30. | |
and we call them them Conservative supporting papers, they like to | :57:30. | :57:36. | |
make them jump every now and again, especially this far out from a | :57:36. | :57:40. | |
general election. But just now, you get an | :57:40. | :57:45. | |
opportunity and a chance to... show you are independent. | :57:45. | :57:53. | |
Just before we go, Chris Leslie, he is in front of Parliament almost as | :57:53. | :57:56. | |
we speak, complaining about the leaks. He has been complaining. | :57:56. | :58:01. | |
What do we make of that? He is complaining about the leaking of | :58:01. | :58:06. | |
the Budget. I was watching this and remember the scene in Casablanca | :58:06. | :58:10. | |
where the police chief says he is shocked, shocked to see there is | :58:10. | :58:16. | |
gambling going on in here! It has always happened. It happened under | :58:16. | :58:17. | |
Gordon and Tony and long before that. | :58:17. | :58:22. | |
Tony Blair would have liked a few more leaks under Gordon Brown. | :58:22. | :58:27. | |
wasn't told anything! "I'm Not telling you anything." | :58:27. | :58:33. | |
John Pienaar, you too colonel. Thank you to our guests. I am back | :58:33. | :58:39. | |
tonight with Michael Portillo and Alastair Campbell and Channel 4's | :58:39. | :58:47. | |
Sarah Smith and David Gorman. Anyway we are on BBC One at 11.35pm. | :58:48. | :58:52. |