Browse content similar to 17/04/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Good afternoon and welcome to the Daily Politics. Grannies, pasties, | :00:43. | :00:45. | |
charities and conservatories - George Osborne's Budget has turned | :00:45. | :00:51. | |
into a nightmare for the coalition. Do the Government have an economic | :00:51. | :00:59. | |
story that doesn't end in tax? And monkey business or a way to | :00:59. | :01:02. | |
reinvigorate local democracy? We'll discuss what directly elected | :01:02. | :01:05. | |
mayors would mean for the cities about to hold a referendum on | :01:05. | :01:08. | |
introducing them. Nato forces are preparing to | :01:08. | :01:10. | |
withdraw from Afghanistan - even amidst continuing attacks from the | :01:11. | :01:17. | |
Taliban. Has our involvement there threatened the stability of the | :01:17. | :01:19. | |
whole region? And it's not been a great couple of | :01:19. | :01:23. | |
weeks for the Government - so do they suffer from a lack of big | :01:23. | :01:26. | |
political beasts? I'll be asking a man who was perhaps the original | :01:26. | :01:30. | |
big beast. All that and more in the next hour. | :01:30. | :01:33. | |
And here he is, Lord Heseltine, with us for the whole programme | :01:33. | :01:40. | |
today. Welcome. If you have any thoughts or comments on anything | :01:40. | :01:42. | |
we're discussing then you can send them to us [email protected], | :01:43. | :01:52. | |
or tweet your comments using the Let's start with the eurozone. | :01:52. | :01:55. | |
Fears are growing that Spain may need a big bail-out as the cost of | :01:56. | :01:58. | |
government borrowing on ten-year bonds has hit over 6% for the first | :01:59. | :02:01. | |
time this year. The figure brings Spain closer to the 7% borrowing | :02:02. | :02:05. | |
cost that was seen as the tipping point for Greece and Ireland. But | :02:05. | :02:09. | |
with a �1 trillion euro economy, many are asking if Spain would, in | :02:09. | :02:12. | |
fact, be too big to save. Markets analyst, Louise Cooper, joins us | :02:12. | :02:20. | |
now. Thank you. Can those bond yields be brought down in any | :02:20. | :02:28. | |
realistic hope? Well... We have had massive amounts of ECB buying of | :02:28. | :02:32. | |
bombs, the peripheral country bonds. One could say that the bonds may be | :02:32. | :02:38. | |
hired it wasn't for the ECB buying. Today, Spanish borrowing costs have | :02:38. | :02:45. | |
come down. The 10 years Spanish bond got up to over 6%, today it is | :02:45. | :02:51. | |
about 5.9%. We have had a bit of a rally. If it was really crunch time, | :02:51. | :02:57. | |
it would be more like seven, 7.5%. We are not at crunch time. That is | :02:57. | :03:01. | |
the most important thing to say, for the time being. How worried | :03:01. | :03:06. | |
should we be? Even if we are not at crunch time, it sounds like we are | :03:06. | :03:10. | |
perilously close. We are getting close. The Spanish government tried | :03:11. | :03:18. | |
to sell short dated Dec today. When -- short-dated debt. When | :03:19. | :03:24. | |
government has problems financing bills, they sell short dated dead. | :03:24. | :03:29. | |
They have had to pay double the interest rate that they were paying | :03:29. | :03:34. | |
only a month ago -- short-dated debt. Spain's test comes on | :03:34. | :03:38. | |
Thursday when they have to issue 10 year debt, let's see how the | :03:38. | :03:41. | |
auction goes. The government has said it is committed to making | :03:42. | :03:46. | |
major budget cuts, even though it admits it is in a recession. Is | :03:46. | :03:49. | |
that going to convince the financial markets that Spain can | :03:49. | :03:54. | |
reach its targets? The key is growth, like in the UK. Spain is | :03:54. | :04:00. | |
expected to contract about 1.7% this year. My view is that | :04:00. | :04:04. | |
austerity, which is what they are imposing, will make the growth | :04:04. | :04:10. | |
forecast difficult. As you start to see, in the second quarter, gross | :04:10. | :04:14. | |
numbers weakening, you get to see economists start revisiting the | :04:14. | :04:19. | |
budget figures, the deficit numbers. What I fear is come late summer, | :04:19. | :04:24. | |
when we have seven quarter GDP, when the slowdown in the economy is | :04:24. | :04:29. | |
really becoming apparent thanks to fiscal austerity, you start to see | :04:29. | :04:33. | |
economists take red pens to the government's financial position, | :04:33. | :04:38. | |
and that is when it could all fall apart, in a really dramatic way. | :04:38. | :04:45. | |
it falls apart and Spain goes, does have the euro go as well? | :04:45. | :04:50. | |
problem for Spain is bailing out Greece, Portugal and Ireland, they | :04:50. | :04:55. | |
are pretty small economies. Spain is not. Spain is almost, not quite, | :04:55. | :05:00. | |
but almost too big to solve, too big to bail out. The latest news we | :05:00. | :05:04. | |
have from the bail-out funds is they are not large enough. The | :05:04. | :05:08. | |
permanent bail-out fund has not been implemented. It is not quite | :05:08. | :05:12. | |
Italy in terms of the size of the country, but it is a significantly | :05:12. | :05:18. | |
bigger challenge than Greece, Portugal and Ireland. Don't forget, | :05:18. | :05:25. | |
we have a property crisis in Spain, possibly just as big as Ireland. It | :05:25. | :05:30. | |
hasn't really blown up yet, but it will do. Thank you very much. | :05:30. | :05:34. | |
Michael Heseltine, it sounds as if the pressure on Spain is going to | :05:34. | :05:38. | |
be extremely difficult to reduce, or diminish in the coming months. | :05:38. | :05:43. | |
Some people have said that the murders and could kill the patient. | :05:43. | :05:49. | |
Do you see it in those apocalyptic terms -- of the medicine could kill | :05:49. | :05:55. | |
the patient. I think that this analysis we have just heard has | :05:55. | :05:59. | |
been current and well articulated now, for a very significant period | :05:59. | :06:05. | |
of time. Of course, there is a lot in it. You can't possibly say, you | :06:05. | :06:11. | |
are wrong. This is a crisis. The last thing that the people who | :06:11. | :06:17. | |
created the euro wanted. But against this, you have to balance | :06:17. | :06:22. | |
the determination of France and Germany to hold the thing together. | :06:22. | :06:28. | |
Is that determination not pointless? People have made even | :06:28. | :06:33. | |
more dramatic forecasts than you are implying. The argument that you | :06:33. | :06:37. | |
don't hear so much is the catastrophic effect on Germany of | :06:38. | :06:46. | |
the euro going. What has happened with the euro phenomenon, it has | :06:47. | :06:52. | |
had a very significant devaluation. If you were to go back to the | :06:52. | :06:56. | |
Deutschmark in some form, there would be a significant appreciation | :06:56. | :07:00. | |
in the German currency and a very serious threat to their export | :07:00. | :07:05. | |
markets. You have the vision of Europe, which is vital to them, but | :07:05. | :07:11. | |
you also have the economic freer of the consequences of the euro going. | :07:11. | :07:15. | |
Just before we go on, I think I have to ask you to turn off your | :07:15. | :07:22. | |
phone. They say you can hear it in the gallery. It is turned off. | :07:22. | :07:26. | |
will try again. Maybe if it is further away from the microphone, | :07:26. | :07:34. | |
it won't vibrate. You have two situations, neither of which are | :07:34. | :07:39. | |
desirable. In the meantime, the question arises, how much money | :07:39. | :07:43. | |
should the European Central Bank, or other economies, be putting into | :07:43. | :07:47. | |
what some people describe as a failed project? People who are | :07:47. | :07:52. | |
putting the money in in the main don't regard it as a failed project. | :07:52. | :07:56. | |
You are putting a eurosceptic view. If you're sitting on the continent, | :07:56. | :08:04. | |
you would see this as a vision born of the war processes that have | :08:04. | :08:09. | |
wrecked Europe so often. They are going to cling on to this. Britain | :08:09. | :08:13. | |
has this very difficult approach, where we were never convinced, we | :08:13. | :08:17. | |
didn't want to join, we had to join because circumstances overwhelmed | :08:17. | :08:23. | |
us. And we have been on the touchline ever since. The moment | :08:23. | :08:28. | |
anything goes wrong, all of the headlines scream euro crisis, euro | :08:28. | :08:32. | |
collapse, euro over. They are not the same headlines on the continent | :08:32. | :08:36. | |
of Europe. You don't think Britain should still join the euro, or do | :08:36. | :08:43. | |
you? I think we will. My guess is it will survive, and in the future, | :08:43. | :08:51. | |
not this week, or next year, we will do so. The whole process of | :08:51. | :08:55. | |
European isation, we have resisted and failed at every turn. If you | :08:55. | :08:59. | |
look at the history of it, we were asked to lead it and we refused, at | :08:59. | :09:06. | |
the Messina conference, we said no. We thought we could compete, we are | :09:06. | :09:11. | |
what, pray -- we would create the European Free Trade Area. That has | :09:11. | :09:14. | |
been absorbed by the European Community. Every time we have had | :09:14. | :09:18. | |
these arguments, it has always turned out to be unworkable from | :09:18. | :09:23. | |
our point of view. The big problem suggested by Louise Cooper is this | :09:23. | :09:27. | |
lack of growth. How can there be lack of growth in an economy like | :09:27. | :09:32. | |
Spain's, when they are carrying out, a bit like Greece and Ireland, | :09:32. | :09:37. | |
severe austerity. But look at the UK. We are carrying out massive | :09:37. | :09:42. | |
austerity. Not to the same extent. But it is still big and the growth | :09:42. | :09:46. | |
rates are very small. But we are not in the euro. So you could argue, | :09:46. | :09:49. | |
we have the ability to devalue the currency, which is what we have | :09:49. | :09:56. | |
done, and it hasn't seriously helped, yet. We have massive | :09:56. | :10:04. | |
indebtedness in this country, as parts of the eurozone. And yet, the | :10:04. | :10:08. | |
same sort of escape hatch, the devaluation process, which is what | :10:08. | :10:14. | |
people say Spain should do, hasn't really help us. We will talk about | :10:14. | :10:22. | |
the budget shortly. Before that, it's time for our quiz. The | :10:22. | :10:24. | |
question for today is, which biscuit has Boris Johnson compared | :10:24. | :10:27. | |
himself to? Was it Jammie Dodger, a custard cream, a chocolate | :10:27. | :10:31. | |
digestive or a bourbon biscuit? At the end of the show, Michael will | :10:31. | :10:35. | |
give us the correct answer. This one's just for fun - no prizes, I'm | :10:35. | :10:37. | |
afraid. Now, George Osborne delivered his | :10:38. | :10:41. | |
Budget nearly four weeks ago, but it seems to have caused no end of | :10:41. | :10:45. | |
trouble over the last month. Indeed, the Budget has become a bit of a | :10:46. | :10:51. | |
nightmare for the Government. Yesterday, the Prime Minister | :10:52. | :10:54. | |
signalled a partial climb-down over plans for what's been dubbed a | :10:54. | :11:01. | |
charity tax. The Budget proposed a cap on tax reliefs, including those | :11:01. | :11:04. | |
on charitable donations, at �50,000 or 25% of a person's income, | :11:04. | :11:08. | |
whichever is highest. But the PM said yesterday these plans could be | :11:08. | :11:10. | |
altered following a consultation. The Prime Minister has also | :11:10. | :11:14. | |
intervened on the so-called conservatory tax. He's blocked the | :11:14. | :11:15. | |
compulsory elements of the Government's green deal, which | :11:16. | :11:18. | |
would have forced homeowners to make their homes more energy | :11:18. | :11:21. | |
efficient if they were carrying out home improvements, such as building | :11:21. | :11:25. | |
an extension. All this comes after the damaging rows about the so- | :11:25. | :11:29. | |
called granny tax - the move to end some tax reliefs for pensioners - | :11:29. | :11:32. | |
and the so-called pasty tax, which arose from a desire to close the | :11:32. | :11:37. | |
VAT loophole on hot takeaway food. Well, the issue of charitable tax | :11:37. | :11:45. | |
relief was the subject of sharp exchanges in the Commons yesterday. | :11:45. | :11:49. | |
Many charities, including the Suffolk foundation, estimate that | :11:49. | :11:54. | |
this cap on tax reliefs will lead to a 20% reduction in their | :11:54. | :11:57. | |
charitable donations. I wonder if the Chief Secretary could tell us | :11:57. | :12:01. | |
whether or not he would consider exempting charitable donations to | :12:01. | :12:05. | |
UK charities. It would be comparatively inexpensive and would | :12:06. | :12:10. | |
be terribly important to the charitable sector. I think it is | :12:10. | :12:14. | |
important for the house to be clear as to what is being proposed. What | :12:14. | :12:20. | |
we are proposing is a limit on the currently uncapped tax reliefs, a | :12:20. | :12:25. | |
limit at �50,000, or a court of someone's income, whichever is the | :12:25. | :12:30. | |
higher. -- a quarter. Someone who is earning �10 million a year can | :12:30. | :12:34. | |
still receive tax relief on donations of �2.5 million to | :12:34. | :12:40. | |
charity each and every year. But as I say, we are going to talk to | :12:40. | :12:44. | |
philanthropists and charities about this. Those discussions are going | :12:44. | :12:51. | |
on. It is being reported that the government are doing a U-turn and | :12:51. | :12:54. | |
perhaps we may get clarification from the Secretary, if he is | :12:54. | :12:58. | |
bothering to listen to anything this afternoon, of whether there is | :12:58. | :13:05. | |
a U-turn. Can the Chief Secretary confirmed that there is a U-turn on | :13:05. | :13:07. | |
the charity's tax relief? The government doesn't seem to know | :13:07. | :13:10. | |
what is going on, the Prime Minister doesn't seem to know what | :13:10. | :13:13. | |
is going on and we have no clarification in the House this | :13:13. | :13:17. | |
afternoon. In the studio with me now are the | :13:17. | :13:19. | |
Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Rachel Reeves - we saw | :13:19. | :13:22. | |
her talking just there - and the Conservative MP, Harriet Baldwin. | :13:22. | :13:25. | |
Lord Heseltine is still with, us of course. Can I start with you, | :13:26. | :13:31. | |
Harriet Baldwin? It looks as if we are in for a series of U-turns. | :13:31. | :13:35. | |
Let's start with the charity tax relief, the hint is it is going to | :13:35. | :13:39. | |
be altered, they are going to have this consultation, so they are | :13:39. | :13:43. | |
going to back down? It was always in the Red Book that these measures | :13:43. | :13:48. | |
would be out for consultation. They are due to come into force for 2013. | :13:48. | :13:53. | |
I think everyone wants to really encourage philanthropy. I think the | :13:53. | :13:57. | |
point that the Chancellor is trying to make with these limits is, is it | :13:57. | :14:01. | |
right for a philanthropist to be able to pay zero tax in any given | :14:01. | :14:07. | |
year? Why, when the rest of us play the PAYE and it goes to general | :14:07. | :14:11. | |
taxation, should it be a special case for someone who is very rich | :14:11. | :14:15. | |
to build a wing of the Royal Opera House in their men, and not pay any | :14:15. | :14:21. | |
tax that year, subsidised by the rest of us -- in their name. Do you | :14:21. | :14:26. | |
think the cap is going to be moved? There were remarks about modelling | :14:26. | :14:29. | |
this on the American approach. I think it is incredibly important | :14:29. | :14:33. | |
that in this consultation that was announced at the time of the Budget, | :14:33. | :14:37. | |
that all the charities that benefit from the generous philanthropists | :14:37. | :14:42. | |
in this country continue to have the reassurance... But they are not | :14:42. | :14:47. | |
reassured, they have come out one after the other.... The tax breaks | :14:47. | :14:51. | |
we will continue to give them. I think there has been a certain | :14:51. | :15:00. | |
amount of exaggeration. We are You can still give �1 million to | :15:00. | :15:06. | |
charity if you make four million pounds. Don't you need to have a | :15:06. | :15:10. | |
consultation before the policy is announced and the savings are | :15:10. | :15:13. | |
scored in the Budget? It is a shambolic way to make policy. You | :15:13. | :15:17. | |
have got a government that announced something in the Budget | :15:17. | :15:20. | |
because they are trying to look at ways to raise money, because they | :15:20. | :15:27. | |
have given a �40,000 tax cut to millionaires. They are trying to | :15:27. | :15:30. | |
make up the difference but they have done it in a way that | :15:30. | :15:34. | |
penalises older people, who are losing their tax allowance, and | :15:34. | :15:37. | |
penalising charities. Do you support the principle of clamping | :15:37. | :15:45. | |
down on tax reliefs? Absolute belief. Including charitable | :15:45. | :15:52. | |
donations. -- absolutely. We cut down on tax avoidance to the tune | :15:52. | :15:55. | |
of CoP million pounds. The tax avoidance measures in this Budget | :15:55. | :16:05. | |
:16:05. | :16:07. | ||
But to clampdown on tax reliefs? Clampdown on tax avoidance, but | :16:07. | :16:11. | |
giving money to Macmillan Nurses, the National Trust for hospices is | :16:11. | :16:15. | |
very different from avoiding taxes. We should be encouraging people who | :16:15. | :16:20. | |
want to give money to importance charities that do important work. | :16:20. | :16:23. | |
If the government go-ahead with their proposals, the losers are not | :16:23. | :16:27. | |
going to be multi-millionaires. The losers are going to be the | :16:27. | :16:31. | |
charities and the vulnerable people, whether you have cancer and rely on | :16:31. | :16:35. | |
Macmillan nurses, people in the developing world who rely on the | :16:35. | :16:40. | |
help of Oxfam. When Ed Miliband was Minister for the third sector, he | :16:40. | :16:44. | |
said tax breaks could boost charities by up to �600 million. | :16:44. | :16:48. | |
You say you want to clamp down on that, but he was encouraging people | :16:48. | :16:52. | |
to use them. There is a big difference between tax avoidance by | :16:52. | :16:57. | |
converting income into capital, by moving tax from one year to another, | :16:57. | :17:01. | |
by setting offshore accounts. That is different from giving to | :17:01. | :17:05. | |
charities, and the Government have got very muddled in their thinking. | :17:05. | :17:09. | |
You have been criticised from almost every quarter over this | :17:09. | :17:14. | |
policy. It is really important that the message gets across that giving | :17:14. | :17:18. | |
to charity is exactly what we want to encourage, and there are | :17:18. | :17:21. | |
generous tax breaks for that. They are not fully used by the wide | :17:21. | :17:25. | |
majority of the population. Let's make sure that everyone is giving a | :17:25. | :17:29. | |
lot to charity, but for those who want to use the charitable tax | :17:29. | :17:32. | |
break to reduce their income tax, they are effectively being | :17:32. | :17:36. | |
subsidised by everyone else and not contributing to general taxation. | :17:36. | :17:40. | |
How has the Government handled this from its message point of view? It | :17:40. | :17:47. | |
seems to have got rather lost in terms of policy. Yes, I think that | :17:47. | :17:52. | |
is probably fair. It is inevitable, because what the Government is | :17:52. | :17:58. | |
doing, amongst many other very good things in the Budget, is to attack | :17:58. | :18:02. | |
tax evasion. We are all in favour of that. But this is tax avoidance, | :18:02. | :18:09. | |
of course, which they are saying is perfectly legal. Well, the problem | :18:09. | :18:13. | |
is that there is a very difficult area, and the real problem in this | :18:13. | :18:17. | |
case is that nobody knows who the people are the one taking advantage | :18:17. | :18:23. | |
of this, and no-one knows which charities are going to suffer. | :18:23. | :18:26. | |
Therefore, the charity world blows up. There is no evidence that they | :18:27. | :18:32. | |
are going to suffer. They might! But there is no evidence for it | :18:32. | :18:36. | |
because we do not have the facts. There is evidence, because the | :18:36. | :18:41. | |
Government have put the savings in the Budget. But they have not put | :18:41. | :18:46. | |
in, I am sorry, figures showing which charities are going to suffer. | :18:46. | :18:51. | |
In the Budget debate yesterday... Don't talk over each other. They | :18:51. | :18:56. | |
said there will be savings in the proposals they have introduced. | :18:56. | :19:00. | |
What they have not said is who is going to suffer from the savings. | :19:00. | :19:04. | |
It flies in the face of the Government's big push for the Big | :19:04. | :19:07. | |
Society, where it expected and encouraged people and individuals | :19:07. | :19:11. | |
to play that part in terms of support because they do not want | :19:11. | :19:15. | |
the state to do any more. It is a confused message. There are still | :19:15. | :19:18. | |
very generous tax breaks for giving to charity. I would not want people | :19:18. | :19:22. | |
to think they have articulated savings in terms of tax revenues, | :19:22. | :19:25. | |
because that assumes every generous person will not give to charity if | :19:25. | :19:31. | |
they do not get a tax break. �100 million, the government is saying, | :19:31. | :19:36. | |
charities will lose out. Macmillan, hospices, Oxfam says it will cost | :19:36. | :19:41. | |
them dearly. But they do not know, that is the point. The conservatory | :19:41. | :19:45. | |
tax, it looks as if it has been dropped. I do not think it was ever | :19:45. | :19:50. | |
a real threat. It was agreed in the coalition, the Liberal Democrats | :19:51. | :19:54. | |
wanted it to be compulsory that people would be made to take on | :19:54. | :19:58. | |
energy measures if they were fixing their boiler. Another U-turn. | :19:58. | :20:01. | |
have never seen any substantive proposals on his. I understand | :20:01. | :20:05. | |
there was a consultation picked up by the Daily Mail. The Green deal | :20:05. | :20:15. | |
is a very good policy idea, where you can invest and save, pay for it | :20:15. | :20:18. | |
through the savings on your energy bills. The granny tax, should there | :20:18. | :20:23. | |
be a U-turn? The 24 million people who are on low or average earnings | :20:23. | :20:27. | |
in this country to benefit from the fact that we have greatly increased, | :20:27. | :20:31. | |
the largest increases in the personal allowance that we have | :20:31. | :20:36. | |
ever had in history, those people ought to be strewing palm fronds of | :20:36. | :20:42. | |
happiness, but of course what you do hear about is the fact that | :20:42. | :20:47. | |
there is a freezing of the allowance that people... Was it | :20:48. | :20:54. | |
right to target pensioners? I think that we recognised the fact that, | :20:54. | :20:58. | |
in increasing the personal allowance for 24 million people, | :20:58. | :21:02. | |
that it is right to think about civil find that and bringing | :21:02. | :21:09. | |
everyone's tax allowance into line. -- symbol of fine. 4.4 million | :21:09. | :21:12. | |
pensioners will be worse off, and you call it simplification? These | :21:12. | :21:16. | |
are people who have made sacrifices in their working lives, they have | :21:16. | :21:19. | |
put things aside for retirement, and the government will take money | :21:19. | :21:25. | |
from them. You're not looking at the whole picture, because the | :21:25. | :21:29. | |
state pension has been greatly strengthened. It is going up in | :21:29. | :21:32. | |
line with inflation. Higher than the proposals we inherited from | :21:32. | :21:37. | |
Labour, which was for average earnings. Was it a good idea? | :21:37. | :21:43. | |
depends entirely on what the actual losses for people whose income is | :21:43. | :21:47. | |
up at low levels, and as we have just turned, many of them have been | :21:47. | :21:52. | |
compensated in other ways. Politically, though. Well, look, | :21:52. | :21:55. | |
George Osborne is a very courageous Chancellor. He has a nightmare on | :21:55. | :22:00. | |
his hands, an absolute nightmare, and everybody says, good old George, | :22:00. | :22:05. | |
you are doing the tough things, you are absolutely right, but every | :22:05. | :22:09. | |
proposal you make is wrong. The Labour Party, who created the mess, | :22:09. | :22:14. | |
are having a field day, say, we would not have done this. As you | :22:14. | :22:18. | |
said earlier... I am sorry, my own view is that you have to see what | :22:18. | :22:23. | |
George did in his Budget. He kept his nerve, he cut corporation tax | :22:24. | :22:28. | |
to get companies investing, he raised the thresholds for a very | :22:28. | :22:32. | |
significant number of poorer people, and these are the bigger issues. | :22:32. | :22:38. | |
There's one generalisation that I can make. The popular budgets are | :22:38. | :22:44. | |
the ones that are failures. The unpopular ones are the ones, in | :22:44. | :22:47. | |
retrospect, which are seen as good. Would you accept the government has | :22:47. | :22:53. | |
failed to get a positive message across on his budget? To be frank, | :22:53. | :22:57. | |
I have never known a government, in mid- term, that does not have a | :22:57. | :23:04. | |
message crisis. From its own side. No, you say, sorry, you save from | :23:04. | :23:08. | |
its own side, but look at its own side, analyse the motives of the | :23:08. | :23:13. | |
people behind the government. They are not a collective group of | :23:13. | :23:17. | |
people all saying whoopee! They are all sorts of pressure groups, | :23:17. | :23:20. | |
subdivisions, and they are people with their own agendas. It always | :23:20. | :23:25. | |
was like that in midterm. Do you think the message needs to move | :23:25. | :23:30. | |
more onto the subject of growth and away from austerity and tax? All we | :23:30. | :23:34. | |
have talked about in this is tax. When people get their pay cheques | :23:34. | :23:37. | |
this month in April, and they benefit from the higher personal | :23:37. | :23:41. | |
tax rates, when next year they get another higher personal tax rates, | :23:41. | :23:44. | |
he will see people realising they have been given more money in their | :23:44. | :23:49. | |
pockets to spend on more things, and that is important. It will | :23:49. | :23:52. | |
transform the legacy of the Budget could Stimac it is entirely | :23:52. | :23:56. | |
disingenuous. The Institute of Fiscal Studies show that the | :23:56. | :24:00. | |
average family will be �511 worth of as a result of all the changes, | :24:00. | :24:08. | |
including the tax allowance. The Ernst and Young ITEM Club yesterday | :24:08. | :24:12. | |
forecast that the economy is going to grow by 0.4% this year, half the | :24:12. | :24:15. | |
growth we saw last year. Nothing in his Budget will help get young | :24:15. | :24:19. | |
people back to work, and that is what we desperately need. On the | :24:19. | :24:23. | |
issue of sluggish growth, what can the Government to, Michael | :24:23. | :24:29. | |
Heseltine, to win the argument? It has tried to come off austerity and | :24:29. | :24:34. | |
go to growth. They should just call back Liam Byrne and say, what did | :24:34. | :24:38. | |
you mean when you said to the incoming colleague, there is no | :24:38. | :24:44. | |
money left? What he meant was any government would have had to cuts, | :24:44. | :24:48. | |
and cuts are unpopular, and we have got to face it, there is no choice. | :24:48. | :24:54. | |
But growth has to be the key surely, as you said for Spain. I agree with | :24:54. | :25:00. | |
you, and I tell you that when the 2015 election comes, this | :25:00. | :25:03. | |
government will be re-elected, either as a coalition was a Tory | :25:03. | :25:07. | |
government, because growth will have been restored. That is what is | :25:07. | :25:12. | |
going to happen. The forecast says 2 million people will still be | :25:12. | :25:18. | |
unemployed, that will be the legacy. So 600,000 less than now! Thank you | :25:18. | :25:21. | |
both for coming in. Dr Home Secretary is due to make a | :25:21. | :25:25. | |
statement later today in the Commons Updating MPs and government | :25:25. | :25:29. | |
efforts to deport Abu Qatada. The European Court of Human Rights has | :25:29. | :25:32. | |
so far blocked efforts from the UK government to deport the | :25:32. | :25:36. | |
controversial Muslim cleric. Norman Smith joins us from Parliament with | :25:36. | :25:41. | |
the latest. What can we expect if we know what Theresa May might say? | :25:41. | :25:46. | |
The Home Office are giving no clear guidance before and, and my | :25:46. | :25:49. | |
expectation is that Theresa May will be able to tell MPs that there | :25:50. | :25:53. | |
are now assurances from the Jordanians which will allow the | :25:53. | :25:57. | |
government to begin the process of trying to deport Abu Qatada. The | :25:57. | :26:00. | |
language I am hearing is that very good progress has been made in | :26:00. | :26:05. | |
talks with the Jordanians. Similarly, Keith Vaz, chairman of | :26:05. | :26:08. | |
the Home Affairs Select Committee, says he has spoken to the | :26:08. | :26:11. | |
Jordanians and they have given assurances that they wanted. It | :26:11. | :26:15. | |
seems to be politically implausible that Theresa May would come to the | :26:15. | :26:19. | |
Commons and say, I have failed, I have not got these assurances, bad | :26:19. | :26:23. | |
news, Abu Qatada will have to stay. That would be the political | :26:23. | :26:26. | |
equivalent of wandering up the M1 in the wrong direction. I think she | :26:26. | :26:30. | |
will come and say, we have got the assurances, we can move to deport | :26:30. | :26:35. | |
Abu Qatada. Does that mean he is going on a plane at the end of the | :26:35. | :26:37. | |
week, warned that he can be held in custody between now and when he | :26:37. | :26:43. | |
does get deported? Bluntly, it means nothing is happening any time | :26:43. | :26:46. | |
soon on the deportation. The sequence of events is this. The | :26:46. | :26:50. | |
government will present its case to the Special Immigration Appeals | :26:50. | :26:53. | |
Commission. His lawyers might then challenge that. That would go to | :26:53. | :26:57. | |
the High Court, the Supreme Court, and then all the way up to the | :26:57. | :27:01. | |
European Court, which could be months down the line. Deportation | :27:01. | :27:05. | |
could still be many, many months away, but crucially, as I | :27:05. | :27:09. | |
understand it, it is possible if the government believes it has a | :27:09. | :27:13. | |
strong case, they could ask for Abu Qatada to be sent back to jail, and | :27:13. | :27:17. | |
that could happen much more swiftly. It is possible that although you | :27:17. | :27:21. | |
may not be deported, he could actually be behind bars much sooner. | :27:21. | :27:25. | |
What about plans by the government to reform the European Court of | :27:25. | :27:29. | |
Human Rights? The reports today are saying that those plans, the | :27:29. | :27:32. | |
Government was quite gung-ho about what it would be able to do, are | :27:32. | :27:37. | |
actually going to be watered down. What are you keirin? Talking to | :27:37. | :27:40. | |
those around Kenneth Clarke, they have a very different | :27:40. | :27:43. | |
interpretation of what is going to happen. Ken Clarke has a meeting | :27:43. | :27:47. | |
with 47 members of the European Council on Thursday to hammer out a | :27:47. | :27:50. | |
deal on reform of the European Court. What they are saying is that | :27:50. | :27:54. | |
the signs are very encouraging and they are quietly confident that | :27:54. | :27:57. | |
they are going to get some sort of deal. One big caveat that we have | :27:57. | :28:02. | |
to end their here is that to get any deal, you have to get the | :28:02. | :28:06. | |
agreement of all 47 members, which seems to me to be nigh-on close to | :28:07. | :28:10. | |
Mission impossible. It is an extraordinarily difficult task to | :28:10. | :28:14. | |
get that sort of agreement. But for what it is worth, Ken Clarke's | :28:14. | :28:18. | |
people are saying that they are confident they can get some sort of | :28:18. | :28:23. | |
a deal. A well, we are joined now by Conservative MP Dominic Raab, | :28:23. | :28:29. | |
who worked as a lawyer and advised their EU before becoming an MP. Are | :28:29. | :28:33. | |
you here in optimistic noises as well coming out of the Ministry of | :28:33. | :28:36. | |
Justice? Are they right to be thinking something is going to | :28:36. | :28:40. | |
happen? Because everything I have seen has said none of those | :28:40. | :28:42. | |
proposals are going to go through in terms of restricting the scope | :28:42. | :28:46. | |
of the European Court. First of all, I think the government is | :28:46. | :28:50. | |
absolutely right to the other front foot, bringing a modest, sensible, | :28:50. | :28:55. | |
moderate reforms to the Strasbourg court so that it intervenes a | :28:55. | :28:58. | |
little bit less, so that it focuses on the most serious violations. Now, | :28:59. | :29:03. | |
look, we have not started the conference, the negotiating text, | :29:03. | :29:10. | |
as I remember from my time, gets bandied around. He will clip was | :29:10. | :29:13. | |
far too sceptical about the prospects for consensus. Look at | :29:13. | :29:17. | |
the declaration as to which had quite a strong resolution on | :29:17. | :29:21. | |
deportation cases. There are two things to look out for. Will it | :29:21. | :29:25. | |
reform Strasbourg so we have an amendment that spells out what the | :29:25. | :29:29. | |
margin of appreciation is? A bit more respect when the Supreme Court, | :29:29. | :29:33. | |
like in the Abu Qatada case, has already looked at the issue. | :29:33. | :29:37. | |
Secondly, a screening mechanism so that Strasbourg is focused on the | :29:37. | :29:40. | |
really serious abuses of human rights. They are saying that is not | :29:40. | :29:44. | |
what is going to happen. Then maybe a little bit more edging... Who is | :29:44. | :29:50. | |
they? Well, the commentators, but also sources who have been working | :29:50. | :29:53. | |
on this, and they obviously take a keen interest, and they are worried | :29:54. | :29:56. | |
you are going to get words and rhetoric but there will not be | :29:56. | :29:59. | |
anything written down which says, we are going to limit the number of | :29:59. | :30:04. | |
cases, we are going to reduce the caseload. Argos sources and others? | :30:04. | :30:10. | |
Probably! I don't know, I have seen some of the texts flying around. | :30:10. | :30:15. | |
You are optimistic. Look, I don't know what the negotiations will | :30:15. | :30:19. | |
produce. I have spelt out to you the two benchmarks for success. | :30:19. | :30:23. | |
They have cross-party support. The bill of Rights Commission support | :30:23. | :30:27. | |
it. Let's see whether they are delivered. Do you agree with that? | :30:27. | :30:31. | |
There is a case for reform, do you agree that there should be reform | :30:31. | :30:41. | |
:30:41. | :30:44. | ||
of the European Court of Human I will go along with that. | :30:44. | :30:51. | |
don't have to! I have huge sympathy for Teresa May. She is a tough, | :30:51. | :30:55. | |
articulate Home Secretary. I would guess she is spitting blood in that | :30:55. | :31:00. | |
department. If I was in her position, I would be certain way. | :31:00. | :31:05. | |
What I would be -- I certainly would be. The French ignored this | :31:05. | :31:09. | |
position in deporting someone the other day. How can the French do it, | :31:09. | :31:15. | |
and we can't? Can countries actually be in breach of the rules | :31:15. | :31:20. | |
that govern human rights and get away with it in that sense? | :31:20. | :31:25. | |
Italians are doing it as well. I think we are very close. Let's take | :31:25. | :31:29. | |
the Abu Qatada case. This was not about torture fundamentally but | :31:29. | :31:33. | |
about saying Britain was responsible for the Judea and | :31:33. | :31:42. | |
justice system. What I think the government must now do, Teresa May | :31:42. | :31:46. | |
has gone out of the way to provide assurances on that. I think were at | :31:46. | :31:50. | |
the point where we need to be moving swiftly to deportation. | :31:50. | :31:54. | |
Given the way we implement international law in this country, | :31:54. | :32:02. | |
I think we could do so. The Supreme Court has upheld the deportation. | :32:02. | :32:05. | |
Is there a risk of going so far along the line that you can end up | :32:05. | :32:09. | |
tearing up the treaty that enshrines human rights in law? That | :32:09. | :32:13. | |
is what people will be worried about. They are right to be worried | :32:13. | :32:16. | |
and one has to remember that the reason this treaty exists is | :32:16. | :32:20. | |
because it was designed in the 1940s, quite apart from the | :32:20. | :32:25. | |
European Community, in order to give a beacon of hope to the people | :32:25. | :32:29. | |
subjected to the Russian domination, that there was a rule of law and a | :32:29. | :32:35. | |
code of behaviour, and we signed up to it. I remember being confronted | :32:35. | :32:38. | |
as a secretary of state, do you want to give that up? Of course, | :32:38. | :32:43. | |
you don't, because we are a great liberal democracy. But the process | :32:43. | :32:52. | |
is out of control. Personally, if I was Teresa May, I would say if the | :32:52. | :32:56. | |
French can do it, why can't I? are calling for a breach of the | :32:56. | :33:01. | |
very treaty which you say must be upheld. You are in a difficult | :33:01. | :33:06. | |
position, is it a breach? Is this what the treaty is all about? And | :33:06. | :33:10. | |
you will say the judges say it is. I realise the weakness of my | :33:10. | :33:15. | |
position in a court of law. In the position of Teresa May, and the | :33:15. | :33:18. | |
Home Secretary, and a democratically elected government, | :33:18. | :33:23. | |
I think there's a point at which you can say, no, I'm sorry, this is | :33:23. | :33:27. | |
not what we have signed it certainly wasn't what we signed up | :33:27. | :33:31. | |
to. When we signed up to the European Court of Human Rights, | :33:31. | :33:37. | |
none of these issues of asylum and caused by terrorism existed. | :33:37. | :33:42. | |
whole agenda changed? Yes. support what Dominic Raab said the | :33:42. | :33:47. | |
government is doing, without any fear of losing... My guess is if | :33:47. | :33:51. | |
you put it to the British people want a referendum, heaven forbid, | :33:51. | :33:57. | |
but if you did, there would be virtual unanimity. Thank you. | :33:57. | :34:01. | |
Research out this week says the powers that'll be handed to elected | :34:01. | :34:03. | |
mayors aren't clear enough and should be extended beyond city | :34:03. | :34:06. | |
boundaries. The Warwick Commission report comes just weeks before | :34:06. | :34:09. | |
people in ten English cities will vote on whether to switch from a | :34:09. | :34:12. | |
council leader and cabinet system to a directly elected mayor running | :34:12. | :34:14. | |
their councils. Our reporter, Susana Mendonsa, has been to | :34:14. | :34:24. | |
:34:24. | :34:26. | ||
Birmingham to find out what people They're setting off for cities | :34:26. | :34:29. | |
where council leaders are in the driving seat, but elected mayor | :34:29. | :34:39. | |
:34:39. | :34:44. | ||
might be taking the wheel soon. I think it is a fantastic idea and | :34:44. | :34:49. | |
it improves things. I think it works well in London but I don't | :34:49. | :34:54. | |
know about anywhere else. snapshot of opinion from Birmingham. | :34:54. | :34:57. | |
This city, along with Bradford, Bristol, and Coventry, is holding a | :34:57. | :35:00. | |
referendum next month on whether to switch to a directly elected mayor. | :35:00. | :35:03. | |
Doncaster's the odd one out, where there's a referendum to scrap the | :35:03. | :35:05. | |
existing mayor. Leeds, Manchester and Nottingham will also be asking | :35:05. | :35:07. | |
whether voters want an elected mayor, as will Newcastle-upon-Tyne, | :35:07. | :35:10. | |
Sheffield and Wakefield. But Birmingham's the first on that list. | :35:10. | :35:13. | |
So I've come to the city's Jewellery Quarter. The clock up | :35:13. | :35:16. | |
there commemorates Joseph Chamberlain who, as a former "non- | :35:16. | :35:18. | |
elected" mayor of Birmingham, used his position back in the 19th | :35:18. | :35:22. | |
century to clean up the slums and put Birmingham on the map. And some | :35:22. | :35:27. | |
here think a directly elected mayor could raise the city's profile. | :35:27. | :35:31. | |
These days, it's commissions like this that do that. Toye, Kenning | :35:31. | :35:34. | |
and Spencer is one of only three firms making official medals for | :35:34. | :35:37. | |
the Queen's Diamond Jubilee. It didn't need an elected mayor to win | :35:37. | :35:43. | |
that contract, but could one help? Companies like this can't stand | :35:43. | :35:46. | |
still, they know they have to win new orders, they have to go | :35:46. | :35:50. | |
overseas, they have to have profile behind them to promote what they | :35:50. | :35:54. | |
are doing. A mayor will come in with authority, 600,000 Brummies | :35:54. | :35:59. | |
having elected them, with clarity, with powers from London, with the | :35:59. | :36:02. | |
ability to go and punch above our weight on a very fiercely | :36:02. | :36:06. | |
competitive market. What about the accountability behind council house | :36:06. | :36:09. | |
doors? A report from the Warwick Commission this week says that's an | :36:09. | :36:15. | |
issue of concern. It is always the case that if you give people enough | :36:15. | :36:19. | |
powers... Lord Acton said power corrupts and absolute power | :36:19. | :36:23. | |
corrupts absolutely. There is always a danger you can have an | :36:23. | :36:26. | |
individual who does that kind of thing. That is why it is important | :36:26. | :36:31. | |
we recognise what scrutiny systems we have in terms of accountability, | :36:31. | :36:34. | |
and also try to ensure that the electorate is absolutely clear | :36:34. | :36:37. | |
about who they are voting for. one knows what powers the mayors | :36:37. | :36:40. | |
will have yet, although transport might top the list. On a tram ride | :36:40. | :36:47. | |
into the Black Country, I hear why that could be a bad news. We're | :36:47. | :36:49. | |
standing on a tramway going off to Wolverhampton from Birmingham, | :36:49. | :36:56. | |
which actually covers three district councils. It covers | :36:56. | :36:58. | |
Birmingham, it covers Sandwell, it covers Wolverhampton and therefore | :36:58. | :37:00. | |
there's a need to coordinate transport right the way across | :37:00. | :37:03. | |
those three administrative boundaries. And would a mayor not | :37:03. | :37:07. | |
do that? What we're saying is the challenge for the city mayor is how | :37:07. | :37:10. | |
do you do that, when he's only got a mandate just for Birmingham. | :37:10. | :37:13. | |
cities like Liverpool and Salford have already decide to hop on board | :37:13. | :37:17. | |
- they'll elect their mayors next month. The rest will let the public | :37:17. | :37:21. | |
decide whether they should head in the same direction. | :37:21. | :37:24. | |
Joining us now from Bristol is the Liberal Democrat leader of the City | :37:24. | :37:27. | |
Council, Barbara Janke, and with us here in the studio still is Lord | :37:27. | :37:34. | |
Heseltine, who is a strong advocate of elected mayors. Let me come to | :37:34. | :37:38. | |
you, Barbara Janke. What is wrong with giving everyone in Bristol a | :37:38. | :37:42. | |
say over who leads the city? Nothing at all, except that when I | :37:43. | :37:46. | |
speak to people in my area particularly, they don't know what | :37:46. | :37:49. | |
they are voting for. They don't know what the powers are going to | :37:49. | :37:52. | |
be, they don't know what the cost is going to be and they don't | :37:52. | :37:57. | |
really see how it is going to work. As your interviewee said, with | :37:57. | :38:01. | |
Bristol having the mayor, and the whole of the travel to work area | :38:01. | :38:05. | |
being outside that jurisdiction. just sounds like they don't have | :38:05. | :38:08. | |
the information to make that decision. They could, if given that | :38:08. | :38:16. | |
information, think it could be a great figurehead for Bristol. | :38:16. | :38:19. | |
400,000 for an election and referendum, a mayor's office on the | :38:19. | :38:23. | |
scale that we have in London, powers that are actually | :38:23. | :38:27. | |
unspecified, seems to me to be something that people should | :38:27. | :38:31. | |
rightly question. And I believe that there is a bit of a feeling | :38:31. | :38:35. | |
that people are being blackmailed, being told that they won't be | :38:35. | :38:39. | |
listened to by Downing Street. I don't see how that could be | :38:39. | :38:44. | |
possibly right. And somehow that they won't have any say and they | :38:44. | :38:48. | |
won't get any powers. I would not have that any government can be | :38:48. | :38:51. | |
discriminate three in that way. But this is the kind of impression we | :38:51. | :38:54. | |
are getting from government ministers. Let's look at the cost. | :38:54. | :38:58. | |
What is the advantage of holding a costly referendum and having | :38:58. | :39:03. | |
another costly election for a mayor several months later, to elect | :39:03. | :39:06. | |
somebody who people don't seem to know what they're going to do, and | :39:06. | :39:12. | |
they might not be any good. Bristol's case, they have had six | :39:13. | :39:17. | |
leaders in 10 years. I can tell you that is a formula for disaster. But | :39:17. | :39:20. | |
it is much wider than that. We are talking about the monopoly of | :39:20. | :39:25. | |
London. Over my lifetime, I have seen more and more power taken away | :39:25. | :39:29. | |
from the great English cities, and centralised in London. Where London | :39:30. | :39:32. | |
makes the decisions. These councillors think they are in | :39:32. | :39:37. | |
charge, they are not. The ministry of transport, housing, education, | :39:37. | :39:42. | |
they are the people who make the real decisions. There is no other | :39:42. | :39:47. | |
economy like us in the world that allows this monopolistic approach. | :39:47. | :39:53. | |
They have all got directly elected people that are identified locally, | :39:53. | :39:56. | |
that are powerful. If you really want to understand the argument, | :39:56. | :40:01. | |
just look what has happened in this country with Boris Johnson and Alex | :40:01. | :40:05. | |
Salmond. Our great English cities are being squeezed out of pressure | :40:05. | :40:13. | |
by these two giant politicians at either end of the country. Michael | :40:13. | :40:16. | |
Heseltine says council leaders are not really in charge of their | :40:16. | :40:20. | |
cities, with respect, people don't know who you are, you don't have | :40:20. | :40:25. | |
the profile that a figurehead would have. People say that and I am not | :40:25. | :40:28. | |
going to comment on my personal position. I would say that as far | :40:28. | :40:32. | |
as we are concerned in Bristol, we have very good international links. | :40:32. | :40:35. | |
We have just been shortlisted for the green capital with Frankfurt | :40:36. | :40:41. | |
and Copenhagen. Equally, as Lord Heseltine says, power has been in | :40:41. | :40:44. | |
the centre in this country for so long, that we don't really believe | :40:44. | :40:49. | |
that the government are going to give powers away at all. But surely | :40:49. | :40:53. | |
this would be a start. If you accept that London dominates, which | :40:53. | :41:00. | |
it does, why not give Bristol the chance to punch above its weight? | :41:00. | :41:04. | |
Because we want the powers. We have been saying for a long time, we | :41:04. | :41:08. | |
want the powers. It is immaterial, putting a figurehead over a | :41:09. | :41:12. | |
situation where central government makes all the decisions. We would | :41:12. | :41:16. | |
like the government to put its money where its mouth is. You have | :41:16. | :41:20. | |
just conceded the case. You said, we don't believe that the | :41:20. | :41:24. | |
government will give us the powers. Alex Salmond and Boris Johnson | :41:24. | :41:28. | |
don't believe that at all. They are determined that they will get | :41:28. | :41:32. | |
powers from London. And the problem with people in your position, it is | :41:32. | :41:36. | |
not a personal attack, is that you have given him. You have accepted | :41:36. | :41:41. | |
the status quo. What people like me want is to have directly elected | :41:41. | :41:45. | |
leaders in those great cities, who thumped the table and say, we will | :41:45. | :41:51. | |
not tolerate this dominance from London any more. That is all it is, | :41:51. | :41:58. | |
thumping the table. Barbara is saying that they once the powers | :41:58. | :42:04. | |
listed. I am sorry, what she is saying is we don't believe we will | :42:04. | :42:08. | |
get them. I want people who are determined to get them. What powers | :42:08. | :42:13. | |
should they be given? This will be an evolving process and the | :42:13. | :42:16. | |
ministers for cities it is discussing with the cities, what | :42:16. | :42:21. | |
powers they want. He is saying, what powers do you want and they | :42:21. | :42:24. | |
are coming forward with ideas. They will get the first tranche and it | :42:24. | :42:30. | |
will build. What powers would you like? What we have asked for for a | :42:30. | :42:33. | |
long time his strategic powers over transport, to be able to raise | :42:33. | :42:36. | |
money to fund transport schemes like the other great European | :42:36. | :42:41. | |
cities, like in the United States. To be able to raise money in bonds, | :42:41. | :42:47. | |
to look at what we can do in terms of revenue raising. 80% of all | :42:47. | :42:50. | |
taxation in the city goes to central government. We say if we | :42:50. | :42:53. | |
are allowed to keep more of our taxation, we could be self- | :42:53. | :42:57. | |
sufficient. Successive governments have talked about this and this | :42:58. | :43:06. | |
But to compare with Alex Salmond who is the Secretary of State for | :43:06. | :43:09. | |
Scotland seems completely absurd. As far as the mayoral referendum is | :43:09. | :43:14. | |
concerned, 40% turnout is what they get, which is no different from | :43:14. | :43:19. | |
local government elections in Bristol. Those are valid points. | :43:19. | :43:23. | |
First of all, what is the evidence, outside of London, places like | :43:23. | :43:30. | |
Hartlepool and Middlesbrough, I any better off with elected mayors? -- | :43:30. | :43:34. | |
are any better off. They haven't been through the process of getting | :43:34. | :43:38. | |
more power. The elected mayors of today haven't got sufficient power, | :43:38. | :43:42. | |
in my view, but the government is committed to reversing that process | :43:42. | :43:46. | |
and devolving power. You have to have someone to fight for it, and | :43:46. | :43:52. | |
secondly, a method of administering that power, which doesn't exist in | :43:52. | :43:57. | |
the present local arrangements, which are branch offices of the | :43:57. | :44:01. | |
central government spending departments. Hartlepool and | :44:01. | :44:04. | |
Middlesbrough have got mayors, they have been thumping the table and | :44:04. | :44:08. | |
they haven't got those powers, which is perhaps why we hear | :44:08. | :44:12. | |
scepticism from someone like Barbara Janke. I can't answer for | :44:12. | :44:15. | |
what the last Labour government did in devolving powers. I can only | :44:15. | :44:20. | |
tell you what this government is committed to do. As I made the | :44:20. | :44:23. | |
recommendations on which the policy was built... You want the | :44:23. | :44:27. | |
government to give those powers? am convinced, you have to go back | :44:27. | :44:31. | |
to the position where these great cities mattered in the way in which | :44:31. | :44:35. | |
this country is run. London was not always this great dominant centre. | :44:35. | :44:40. | |
Barbara Janke, thank you for joining us. | :44:40. | :44:44. | |
Next, Afghanistan. Yesterday, Taliban militants launched several | :44:44. | :44:47. | |
attacks across the country as part of a spring offensive, showing they | :44:47. | :44:51. | |
are still a powerful force. Militants attacked a number of | :44:51. | :44:55. | |
sites including the Afghan Parliament. The NATO building and a | :44:55. | :44:58. | |
number of foreign embassies. President Hamid Karzai of | :44:58. | :45:02. | |
Afghanistan blamed a failure of NATO's intelligence services for | :45:02. | :45:07. | |
the attacks. Officials say 51 people died in the fighting. | :45:07. | :45:10. | |
This morning, Australia announced it will pull most its troops out of | :45:10. | :45:13. | |
Afghanistan a year earlier than planned, in 2013. American and | :45:13. | :45:20. | |
British troops are due to withdraw in 2014. What is the future for | :45:20. | :45:24. | |
Afghanistan and its volatile neighbour, Pakistan? I am joined by | :45:24. | :45:28. | |
Ahmed Rashid, it respected author about the region, who has a new | :45:28. | :45:34. | |
book, and Douglas Alexander, Shadow Foreign Secretary. We saw this | :45:34. | :45:39. | |
spring offensive from the Taliban. Does that really showed that not | :45:39. | :45:42. | |
much progress has been made and the Taliban are just sitting and | :45:42. | :45:50. | |
waiting for the withdrawals we have It shows a lot of things, including | :45:50. | :45:54. | |
the lack of intelligence that NATO and US forces have had about the | :45:54. | :45:58. | |
Taliban. They output so many defence mechanisms between the | :45:58. | :46:03. | |
Pakistan border and Kabul, and yet 30 or 40 Taliban were able to come | :46:03. | :46:08. | |
in with suicide best and all that. It shows an enormous weakness of | :46:08. | :46:11. | |
intelligence and military capability by both the US and | :46:11. | :46:16. | |
Afghan forces. But the other side of the picture is, remember the | :46:16. | :46:20. | |
Taliban are in talks with the American's right now? They are | :46:20. | :46:24. | |
temporarily suspended, but there has been a lot of dissent from | :46:24. | :46:28. | |
Taliban commanders on the ground, saying, why are we talking to them | :46:28. | :46:33. | |
when we are about to leave? We should be preparing for victory. So | :46:33. | :46:36. | |
this attack was meant to impress their own commanders that they are | :46:36. | :46:40. | |
still fighting. So the confidence is there, and they are basically | :46:41. | :46:44. | |
confident that the Afghan army is not ready to take over and probably | :46:44. | :46:48. | |
will not be when British and American forces withdraw by the end | :46:48. | :46:55. | |
of 2014. I think they are very confident. I think the American and | :46:55. | :46:57. | |
NATO assessment that we are winning and that somehow the Taliban are | :46:57. | :47:02. | |
being depleted is completely wrong. What do you say to that, Douglas | :47:02. | :47:05. | |
Alexander? Under Labour and his government, there is a feeling that | :47:05. | :47:10. | |
our troops are out there, that we can win it, if you want to use that | :47:10. | :47:14. | |
simplistic term, and when we pull- out, we will be able to hand over | :47:14. | :47:18. | |
to a relatively stable Afghan army and police force. That does not | :47:18. | :47:22. | |
sound like it is achievable. I have a great deal of sympathy with what | :47:22. | :47:26. | |
we have heard. My concern is that we have an end date for NATO forces | :47:26. | :47:31. | |
to transition out, but we have not got an end state, which is judged | :47:31. | :47:35. | |
to be sustainable. They have said they will build up Afghan forces, | :47:35. | :47:39. | |
but my conviction is that only politics can be the bridge between | :47:39. | :47:42. | |
where Afghanistan is today and where it needs to be, and that is | :47:42. | :47:46. | |
why, as well as ensuring that Afghan forces are built up and | :47:46. | :47:50. | |
running for military draw down, there needs to be a much greater | :47:50. | :47:53. | |
effort by the international community to ensure both an | :47:53. | :47:57. | |
inclusive political settlement, with Al-Qaeda out and the tribes | :47:57. | :48:01. | |
within, and a great deal of thought given to how we can bring in | :48:01. | :48:04. | |
regional neighbours, countries like Pakistan and China, even countries | :48:04. | :48:10. | |
like Iran. Because that is the basis on which you could have a | :48:10. | :48:13. | |
more sustainable future for Afghanistan. Is that really | :48:13. | :48:17. | |
credible, bringing in people like Pakistan? The West has struggled to | :48:17. | :48:20. | |
have any sort of stable relationship with Pakistan in terms | :48:20. | :48:24. | |
of dealing with the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan and | :48:24. | :48:28. | |
dealing with the Taliban, who many people say that Pakistan supports. | :48:28. | :48:33. | |
The reality is that border, in many areas, does not exist. The line | :48:33. | :48:37. | |
involves people living on one side of the border and farming on the | :48:37. | :48:40. | |
other. One of the challenges is to betray the Pakistani leadership | :48:40. | :48:44. | |
that the existential threat to Pakistan is not India but the | :48:44. | :48:48. | |
insurgency within its own borders and potentially from outside its | :48:48. | :48:52. | |
borders within Afghanistan. doesn't Pakistan say that it needs | :48:52. | :48:56. | |
to have a relationship with what they see as the future government, | :48:56. | :49:01. | |
the Taliban in Afghanistan? That is the long game it is plain, which | :49:01. | :49:04. | |
means that there is no real chance of getting Pakistan onside when | :49:04. | :49:09. | |
they are thinking ahead to who they might be dealing with after 2014. | :49:09. | :49:13. | |
The Pakistan military, Bridge conducts the country's foreign | :49:13. | :49:17. | |
policy, is very key that negotiations are successful between | :49:17. | :49:22. | |
the Americans, the Taliban, Hamid Karzai and the Taliban. If those | :49:22. | :49:26. | |
negotiations are successful, they would be some element of sharing | :49:26. | :49:32. | |
power in Kabul between Taliban and Hamid Karzai. Before 2014, after | :49:32. | :49:36. | |
2014, such negotiations might take longer than 2014, but if it happens, | :49:36. | :49:41. | |
Pakistan can live without. That is the endgame. Pakistan's endgame is | :49:41. | :49:46. | |
not to bring the Taliban back to power. Pakistan is faced with its | :49:46. | :49:50. | |
own Taliban insurgency, and it does not want to deal with a rabbit | :49:50. | :49:55. | |
Taliban government in Kabul. A sharing of power between the | :49:55. | :49:58. | |
present Afghan government and the Taliban is the best outlook. But | :49:58. | :50:02. | |
frankly, the problem is that the Americans are not taking the talks | :50:02. | :50:06. | |
seriously. What you think the Americans should be doing? The next | :50:06. | :50:10. | |
main date is going to be the NATO summit which takes place in May. I | :50:10. | :50:14. | |
think we do not just want to see a Status of forces Agreement, an | :50:14. | :50:18. | |
agreement in terms of the funding of the Afghan military, or indeed a | :50:19. | :50:22. | |
timetable for military transition. We need to see a serious engagement | :50:22. | :50:26. | |
with the regional players and the Taliban. We need the diplomatic | :50:26. | :50:30. | |
efforts to match the military sacrifice. The real problem has | :50:30. | :50:33. | |
been that President Obama has not put his foot down. There are huge | :50:33. | :50:37. | |
divisions between the Defence Department and the State Department, | :50:37. | :50:41. | |
the US military saying that they want to push ahead and continue | :50:41. | :50:45. | |
fighting indefinitely until the last militant is dead. State is | :50:45. | :50:49. | |
saying that we should be talking to the Taliban, and we have not seen | :50:49. | :50:53. | |
assertive American leadership in going ahead. Obama and Hillary | :50:53. | :50:57. | |
Clinton support talks, but they have not put their weight behind it. | :50:57. | :51:00. | |
Why do you think that is? Is it because they have decided they are | :51:00. | :51:04. | |
going to withdraw and wash their hands of it? I do not think the | :51:04. | :51:08. | |
Americans can wash their hands of Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda may be | :51:08. | :51:13. | |
defeated, but there are still enough extremists around in that | :51:13. | :51:18. | |
region to worry both Europe and the Americans. Michael Heseltine, in | :51:18. | :51:22. | |
terms of his end date, to pick up on what Douglas Alexander said, to | :51:22. | :51:26. | |
think it has just given the Taliban a date to wait for and then move | :51:26. | :51:35. | |
in? If you were sitting in the senior counsels of the Taliban, | :51:35. | :51:39. | |
that is what you would think. It is the only conclusion you could come | :51:39. | :51:43. | |
to. So you would not agree to British troops withdrawn at the end | :51:43. | :51:47. | |
of 2014. I would not have agreed to put them in in the first place. I | :51:47. | :51:50. | |
do not understand, I cannot understand how the mission creep | :51:50. | :51:58. | |
took place. I think it was 100% defensible of the Americans to go | :51:58. | :52:05. | |
in, to get Bin Laden. But that was a very limited objective, highly | :52:05. | :52:10. | |
justifiable. But what they are doing, trying to turn one of the | :52:10. | :52:18. | |
most difficult states in the world into a civilised democracy, I just | :52:18. | :52:23. | |
find extraordinary. And it is not going to work, you know. You are | :52:23. | :52:27. | |
damned if you stay and you are damned if you go. And on that note, | :52:27. | :52:31. | |
thank you very much to both of you for coming in. Before we move on, | :52:31. | :52:37. | |
son used to say that Abu Qatada has been arrested, the Muslim cleric we | :52:37. | :52:41. | |
have been hearing about. We are going to hear from Theresa May this | :52:41. | :52:44. | |
afternoon, but he has been arrested in the meantime. It has not been a | :52:45. | :52:47. | |
great couple of weeks for government in presentational terms. | :52:47. | :52:50. | |
Some are blaming their woes of a lack of political prowess in | :52:51. | :52:54. | |
Cabinet. Where are the big beasts that characterised previous | :52:54. | :52:57. | |
government? A reminder of some of the talent and trouble they brought | :52:57. | :53:07. | |
:53:07. | :53:13. | ||
I have resigned from the Cabinet. I will make a full statement later | :53:13. | :53:23. | |
:53:23. | :53:29. | ||
That conflict of loyalty has become all too great. I know longer | :53:29. | :53:32. | |
believe it is possible to resolve that conflict from within his | :53:32. | :53:42. | |
:53:42. | :53:58. | ||
That is what I'm going to negotiate for, and that the conference to | :53:59. | :54:08. | |
:54:09. | :54:15. | ||
support me in that task! -- and I Here, Gordon. It is not often I get | :54:15. | :54:23. | |
a chance to give you something for Smiles all round, I wonder what it | :54:23. | :54:27. | |
was really like behind the scenes. Joining is now his chief political | :54:27. | :54:31. | |
commentator of the Express, what is a big beast in political terms? | :54:31. | :54:36. | |
Well, I think a big beast is someone who has his own... It is | :54:36. | :54:42. | |
usually a him, but Mo Mowlam was the last female babies. Somebody or | :54:42. | :54:48. | |
has self-confidence, a ability to attract a following but by | :54:48. | :54:52. | |
definition is not the party leader. But if you ask what are the | :54:52. | :54:57. | |
consequences should this person walk out in a straw or turn hostile | :54:57. | :55:00. | |
and the consequences of big, that is a big beast, at which point I | :55:00. | :55:05. | |
think Lord Heseltine might be eliminate us on his definition. | :55:05. | :55:10. | |
you agree with that? I think every generation produces their big | :55:10. | :55:16. | |
beasts in that respect. Really? Not at the time? We are not described | :55:16. | :55:22. | |
as a big political beast? Ken Clarke is still described as one. I | :55:22. | :55:26. | |
have the highest regard for Ken. He is at the end of his political | :55:26. | :55:34. | |
career. He certainly is a big beast by any standards. The great problem | :55:34. | :55:38. | |
is that you do not see your contemporaries as big beasts. | :55:38. | :55:45. | |
don't? No, you don't, and I certainly, having served with | :55:45. | :55:51. | |
different generations, I do not remember ever being in tow or of | :55:51. | :55:56. | |
any of my colleagues. Maybe people were in awe of you. I remember at | :55:56. | :56:01. | |
the time, he did have quite a lot of Conservative MPs whose primary | :56:01. | :56:05. | |
loyalty was probably to you, rather than the leader of the party. I am | :56:05. | :56:10. | |
thinking of Michael Mates and Peter Temple-Morris, who saw you as their | :56:10. | :56:14. | |
contemporaries. You had a following as a result. I certainly had a | :56:14. | :56:18. | |
following, but plenty of people in the House of Commons today have | :56:18. | :56:22. | |
followings. I'm not close enough, but I know it to be the case. You | :56:22. | :56:25. | |
constantly read about them in the papers, the ones that the press go | :56:25. | :56:31. | |
to. Do you think the government is a big beast free? I know that you | :56:31. | :56:35. | |
look at it retrospectively, but as an observer, apart from Ken Clarke, | :56:35. | :56:42. | |
who will be known as a big beast of this government? Well, in my own | :56:42. | :56:45. | |
party terms, David Cameron will be seen as the man who brought the | :56:45. | :56:48. | |
Tories back out of the cold. I think George Osborne could well be | :56:48. | :56:53. | |
seen as an outstanding Chancellor of the Exchequer. I think William | :56:53. | :56:57. | |
Hague is highly regarded. I say William Hague could be regarded as | :56:57. | :57:01. | |
a big beast. He is closer to it, but I think I am right in saying | :57:01. | :57:06. | |
that he is no longer seen as being on the ladder up. No, indeed. | :57:06. | :57:11. | |
has got to the top of his ladder, and you have to get to the top of | :57:11. | :57:15. | |
your ladder to be a big beast. I think you have to have the | :57:15. | :57:19. | |
capacity or potential to cause trouble, and I think William Hague | :57:19. | :57:24. | |
is 100% ile loyal to David Cameron. If I had to pick a big beast in the | :57:24. | :57:29. | |
Tory party, you would have to look at David Davis, who is outside the | :57:29. | :57:33. | |
Cabinet. But then you are talking about troublemakers. Do you need to | :57:33. | :57:38. | |
have to have a big personality, somebody with that charisma, if you | :57:38. | :57:42. | |
like, rather than perhaps a political leader? There are not | :57:42. | :57:46. | |
many of those in the current government. They are not many in | :57:46. | :57:49. | |
politics in general, partly because the status of the leader in | :57:50. | :57:55. | |
relation to the front bench has skewed a lot in a last 20 years, so | :57:55. | :57:58. | |
we have become more presidential. It is hard for anyone in the | :57:58. | :58:05. | |
Cabinet or Shadow Cabinet to have that. Go back in 1979 when Margaret | :58:05. | :58:09. | |
Thatcher was elected. Now, basically, their senior team were | :58:09. | :58:13. | |
Ted Heath's government. They had been there for four years, big | :58:13. | :58:19. | |
names. They were. By any standards, Quentin Hailsham, Willie Whitelaw, | :58:19. | :58:27. | |
Geoffrey Howe, Peter Carrington were big beasts, but the government, | :58:27. | :58:31. | |
after 18 months, was absolutely at the bottom of the opinion poll | :58:31. | :58:35. | |
ratings. I'm not sure about the correlation between the two. We | :58:35. | :58:38. | |
have only got seconds left, the biscuits that Boris Johnson | :58:39. | :58:43. | |
compared himself to, do you know what it is? No idea. Chocolate | :58:43. | :58:47. |