16/05/2013 Daily Politics


16/05/2013

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Daily Politics. Make no mistake, a lot of Tory backbenchers are not

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best pleased with Call Me Dave. Last night, half of them gave him a

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ticking off over his failure to include an EU referendum bill in the

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Queen's Speech. We will talk to former chancellor Nigel Lawson, who

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thinks yesterday's vote was a waste of time.

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Could the whole issue rear its head again in a private member's bill? We

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will talk to the winner of this morning's ballot. Red Ed may be

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ahead, but not by much, according to the polls.

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Does he have what it takes to win an election? And from the difficulties

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of one man to the troubles of all. We will be asking Diane Abbott why

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she thinks men could be in crisis. Diane Abbott, who is she? All that

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in the next hour. With us for the duration, former Labour pollster

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Debra Mattinson, who had to deal with Gordon Brown. She now runs an

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organisation called Britainthinks. That is a great relief to know. I

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myself would like a second opinion. First, let's talk about tax and

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Google, because the internet giant was in front of the Public Accounts

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Committee again this morning. The labour and Pete who chairs it,

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Margaret Hodge, said a payslip from a whistleblower showed that he was

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given commission on deals made in the UK. The Google executive, Matt

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Britain, claimed that 99% of sales were clinched in Dublin and that

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that was where they should be taxed. He was a flavour of the

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exchange. I would ask you to reconsider what you are telling us,

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because it does not make sense to your own staff. It does not make

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sense to the committee. It does not make sense to any of your clients,

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and it does not make sense that the only people it seems to make them is

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to is Google. You are the last man standing on this. I don't recognise

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the characterisation you paint. You have written number of points and I

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would like to deal with them in turn. It is true that the people

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dealing with customers in the UK, the 1% of customers who see UK

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Google staff, are incentivised to encourage people to spend money with

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Google. That is appropriate. Therefore, they do have targets that

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include the growth of the business they are responsible for a cross a

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range of industry sectors. So it is true that people have targets. Many

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countries incentivised staff to grow the business.

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That was the boss of Google. You can tell he is the boss, he does not

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have a tie, even when he goes to the Commons. Obviously, people are

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paying taxes to the hilt. They hate it when these rich companies make a

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tonne of money out of us and are not paying their fair whack. I right in

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thinking, though, that people are less upset with Google that they are

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with Starbucks? You are right. It is incredibly interesting. If you look

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at Google's corporate reputation and track it over time, it has barely

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taken a hit over this period. It is still scoring highly. By contrast,

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Starbucks has gone off the edge of a cliff. If you think about why that

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might be, I think it is about the extent to which a company has

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managed to store up some reputational capital. If you seem to

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be a good corporate citizen to the public, then when something goes

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wrong, you have something to draw on. That is where Google is now. It

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remains to be seen if they can keep things that way, but they are doing

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OK. It could also be that Starbucks charge for quid per coffee. Whereas

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Google is free. Which is why people like it. The high street is full of

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other coffee shops. And there are other search engines, but Google

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dominates. And they seem to provide a good service. It will be

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interesting to see what happens over time. Talking to somebody who works

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at Google off the record last week, she said to me that the staff there

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were very upset by this. They think they are working for a great

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company, and when something goes wrong, it rocks their confidence.

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the upset is more internal than external. Staff morale is not good.

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Now, time for our quiz. We all know the British consumers

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abroad offers welcome assistance to travellers who are in trouble, but

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the foreign office is warning that there are some things it cannot help

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with, like telling them when spring is going to happen. Which of these

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have they not been asked to assist with? Silencing a nosy cockerel,

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recommending the best place to watch football, ordering a husband to get

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fit and eat healthily so he and his wife and have children, or

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requesting an audience with the Pope? At the end of the show, Debra

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will have a stab at getting the correct answer.

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Now, it will come as no surprise to read your viewers, all three of you,

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to learn that last night, half of all Conservative backbenchers voted

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to criticise David Cameron's Queen's Speech for failing to propose a

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European Union referendum. Maybe they forgot they are part of a

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coalition government in which the other country is the most Europhile

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of British parties. But memories are short these days, so here is a

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flavour of the debate. For too long, the electorate has not been able to

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express its opinion on the changing nature of our relationship. The

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political establishment has closed ranks over the last 30 years and

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denied the electorate a choice. We now have a golden opportunity to

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right this wrong. We should be bold of heart, seize the moment and do

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what is right by the electorate and by the country. I therefore intend

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to move this amendment. Those who voted UKIP and are likely to vote

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UKIP in next year's European elections will not be impressed

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unless we are making every effort to have a referendum as soon as

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possible, rather than when it suits the three main political parties for

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whatever reason that we want to put it off. The reason why it is

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essential that we hold this referendum urgently is because the

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changes in the relationship will enable us to disentangle ourselves

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from the spiders web which we have become caught up in without asking

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the British people since 1975 has got to be dealt with. It is a vital

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question of national interest, and IBEC members of Parliament to

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listen. The party opposite claims to be the party of business. And a key

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hate for business is prolonged economic uncertainty. And now we are

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telling inward investors we might leave the EU, but we will let them

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know in four years' time. Japanese, American, European inward investors

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all make it clear that they are in the UK because the UK is in the EU.

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Millions of jobs are at stake. A semi-detached status like

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Switzerland and Norway means being banned by EE decisions without

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having a voice. I gather that it is likely that an amendment may be

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moved in another place today, regretting the absence of any

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mention of this in the gracious speech. I of course would not

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presume to give advice to my right honourable and honourable friends in

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that place. But if I may venture an opinion, what is needed is a

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thorough debate about the momentous issues, political and economic, and

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this will not be assisted by an necessary and pointless votes.

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That was Nigel Lawson. More of him later. With us now, the man who

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proposed yesterday's bill, John Barron. 116 Conservative MPs voted

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for your amendment. What have you achieved?

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We have achieved the fact that the party has declared that it would

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support a private member's bill. This was not on the table a week

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ago. I would like to have won. Had we managed to carry the day, the

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headlines this morning would have said Tories united, labour and

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liberals in disarray, and we would have advanced the cause. So

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disappointed that we did not win. instead, the Tories are disunited.

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We are united on one thing. We also bought a 2017 in-out referendum. No

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doubt about that. But how do you best convince the electorate that we

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are serious about it? When you knock on the doors, there is deep public

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mistrust when people hear politicians making promises. So many

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have been broken in the past. So how do we convince them? Only 1% of

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people think Europe is the most important issue facing Britain, but

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you lot are banging on about it. tend to disagree. Where does the

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economy and immigration come on that? You cannot talk about

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immigration and the economy without also talking about Europe. Vandalism

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comes higher. Europe is the 12th most important issue if you ask

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people to list the most important issues. But Europe transcends a

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number of issues. If you talk about immigration, you are talking about

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Europe. But how do you best convince the electorate that we are serious?

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Legislation is more believable than election manifesto promises.

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given that you did not win the last election, you don't have the

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majority in the Commons for legislation. But if we had won the

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mandate last night, if the party had rallied round, we could have gone to

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the Liberals and said look, Parliament has spoken. Now give us

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more time. That might have given us more leverage than simply asking the

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Liberals for more than. But your party did not rally round. It was

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divided. It was not divided. Nobody voted against the amendment. But

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yes, you don't table an amendment unless you hope to win it, and I am

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sorry that we did not win it. Miliband's lead in the polls is not

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great or robust. If you believe the governor of the Bank of England,

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there are signs that the economy is on the rise. You could step back a

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bit and say actually, things aren't so bad for the Tory party and the

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coalition at the moment. So why are you inflicting damage on the pie

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Minister? You say damage, but we have nudged the party closer to the

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electorate. One week ago, we had no party support for a private members'

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bills. We had no publication of the bill itself. Those are steps

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forward. Do you not deny that it damages the prime minister? People

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do not like divided parties. They see the division is taking place.

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This week, you had Peter Mandelson almost confirming a Tory urban myth

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at one stage that Labour was good grooming immigrants into this

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country, is usually to your advantage. No one covered it,

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because you were all banging on about Europe. But Europe is an

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important subject to many people. We have achieved a lot in the last

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week. The prime minister has decided to go down the road of a private

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member's bill. We will support him in that and let's see if we can get

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it through, but it is second-best to what happened last night. Deborah,

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tell him about the polls. It is really not important to many people.

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It has not made it into double figures in a decade, Europe. 7% say

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it is one of the more important things. The public will be looking

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at the Conservative Party and Bebo will did. They feel the country is

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facing lots of problems. They are worried about how to pay the bills,

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they are worried about the NHS and a whole bunch of things. And they see

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two things, a party that seems to be talking about something they don't

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care much about, and they see a party at war with itself. Actually,

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we are more united as a party that we have probably been for a

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generation. We all signed up to the 2017 referendum. That is not how it

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looks. We disagree on how best you convince the electorate that we are

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serious. In your view, what happens next? We will rally round and

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support this private member's bill. I hope we can get it through, but

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history suggests that a determined minority can block it. My worry is

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that we have raised expectations again and then failed to deliver.

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Unless the Liberals and Labour change their mind and let this

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private members' bills through all the whips have a devious plan, and I

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hope they have, I am afraid it will fail. So you have hit a dead end.

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That is why I was pushing the amendment last night. Had we won

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it, and the maths do stack up, we could have knocked on the door of

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the Liberals and said, Parliament has spoken. Give us more time.

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likelihood is that this train is going to hit the buffers. It is,

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unfortunately, because most of private members' bills do. Don't get

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me wrong, I hope it succeeds. But it is the best option. Come back and

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give us updates, for free. I will! unfolding at Westminster have been

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followed closely understandably by politicians here in Europe. With

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some bemusement, I understand. And my two guests have also been

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following it closely. Sharon Bow le s and a Conservative MEP have come

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to talk about it. First of all, would you describe it as an edifying

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spectacle that has been displayed by your Parliamentary colleagues over

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the issue of Europe? I think it's important that we realise that in

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Britain there is a debate, a real debate taking place... Only in the

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Conservative Party. No, it's in the nation. It has to be reflected in

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Parliament. What would be dishonest if sitting with our partners here in

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Europe saying to them that the leadership is dealing with all our

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European issues and there's no debate in the United Kingdom. We

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have to be up front and have all the cards on the table so we can go into

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a mature debate in the UK and a set of reforms here in the European

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Union. Would you have supported the amendment that regretted the absence

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of any legislation for a referendum? I completely support a thorough

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programme of discussion within the United Kingdom about our

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relationship with the European Union, that is one of the steps

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along the way to achieving that overall reform agenda. If there were

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a referendum tomorrow, would you back out or in? We aren't going have

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a referendum tomorrow. Are you out or in? A referendum will ultimately

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take place, every Conservative in the land is signed up to that. As

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and when it does take place, I will be campaigning for a Yes vote along

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with the Prime Minister. The Liberal Democrats have been accused of

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showing complete disdain to the voting public in Britain. They have,

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in effect, blocked paving legislation for a rove dome happen

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in 2017. Yes, we think this is totally the wrong time. We are

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potentially going to have a referendum on an unknown Unknown.

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This is not right. We thought it was right there should be a referendum

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if there is any further transfer of powers. I think the way the

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political time table works with the next time German and French

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elections it's likely something might happen by 2017. To fix

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something in stone when you don't actually know what the result is

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seems to be wrong and it would certainly be wrong to have some kind

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of in/out referendum now when we've not had any debate in Parliament and

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don't have enough debates in Westminster about what is actually

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going on in Europe in the different policy areas. Everybody is ignorant.

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What do you think your colleagues here in Brussels have thought of

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what's gone on at home in Westminster? Some actually are quite

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understanding because we are all politicians and they understand that

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they have problems within their own parties at times. Others are a

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little bit surprised. They certainly don't want to be black mailed and

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that's the message. I think they understand when you get these

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political troubles within a party, but they're aghast that we might do

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something by mistake and come out of Europe from a point of ignorance.

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Vince Cable today has said the Conservative Party is plunging

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Britain into a period of dreadful uncertainty from a business

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perspective. Not at all. We've been clear about what we want to achieve

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here. We've put in place a review in the United Kingdom. That's under

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way. We are leading on a reform programme in the European Union.

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Ultimately we will have a referendum. You don't agree with

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Nigel Lawson that it's pointless to have a renegotiation? You have a

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clear set of stages that have been set out for the British people now.

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It's important that we stick to that and we actually have a mature debate

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rather than simply mud slinging as is what is happening in certain

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quarters as well. Thank you both very much. Back to you Andrew.

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As if by magic we're joined by the former Conservative Chancellor Nigel

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Lawson. Welcome back to the programme. I hear you've been

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causing trouble. Never. You know me, I never cause trouble. I read it.

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You can't believe what you read in the newspapers. Now, in the Lords

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yesterday we had a clip of it before you came on, you said the EU

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campaign would not be assisted by "a necessary and pointless votes". Uals

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yesterday's Commons vote pointless? Yes, I think it was. I think it is

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the fact that everybody is now, of course it will go away because

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somebody once said a week is a long time in politics. But I mean, it

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will go away. For the moment now, instead of discussing the issues,

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and there are some important issues there on both sides, good arguments

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to be made and I've entered the fray setting out the stall as I see it.

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Instead of focussing on the issues what they're doing is talking about

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the Conservative pitch, nothing else. That's why I thought it was

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foolish. Did you, when you wrote this art actual in the Times, which

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was more than a pebble in a small pond, did you expect it to ramp up

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the pressure on the Prime Minister as much as it has? I hoped,

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obviously, it would make an impact. If one's writing something one hopes

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it will make an impact. But what I did have a negotiation with the

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Times, not only the fee but over the length of the piece. Because it was

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longer than they normally do. They were reluctant. I said I wouldn't do

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it unless you give me 2,000 words because it's a complicatedish up and

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I want to sell -- comploted issue and I want to set it out properly.

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Did you alert Downing Street before? I am just an independent

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backbencher, old man with a past and no future. I'm not interested in

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preferment. All the violins are playing. Let me put to you what the

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Prime Minister responded to your pessimism about the likely lack of

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success in renegotiation. He said, " We shouldn't give up before

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negotiation has started. It seems an extraordinary way to go about

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things. The idea of throwing in the towel before the negotiation has

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started. -- started is a very strange opinion.". I think he

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misunderstood. I wasn't saying he shouldn't try to negotiate. Good

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luck to him. I was saying what in my judgment and experience is likely to

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be the outcome. Do you say to the Conservatives who sat in that chair,

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Sir Malcom Rifkind included, saying ah, they all said that when Maggie

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went to get our rebate back which was one against whatever number it

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was. No-one gave her a chance. Even the Foreign Office and she did it.

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She did extremely well. But that was a simple issue. This is immensely

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complicated. It would, nobody I know, I know a lot of people within

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the European institutions, I know people who have formally served in

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the European institutions, none of them expect that any major change is

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negotiable. We all remember the last time a Prime Minister tried that,

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Harold Wilson in the 1970s, and the concession,if you like, that he

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managed to secure, was so in, not even you can remember what they

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were. No, that's true. Actually I can remember one of them was to do

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with agriculture. The difference there was too that other thinned

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morning star and the Daily Express every newspaper was in favour of us

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staying in. They conspired to make it seem a big deal that he had done

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enough to get the vote. That's right. It was a very time... Time.

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It won't happen this time. No. This time, the press are divided. I think

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the people are rather more sceptical. There are people on both

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sides where it was the only people on the other side that time were

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Enoch Powell and Tony Benn who are both very good ortors but people

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didn't trust them very much. It is going to be different this time. I

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think the issues are different. I voted in favour of staying in In

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1975. But since the coming of the single currency, the euro, and the

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creation of the eurozone, and the political consequences of that, the

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whole nature has changed. Therefore I thoroughly support the Prime

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Minister in his decision that we should have a referendum in 2017.

:24:27.:24:36.

Just to claireify, you -- Klairify, you support the current strategy of

:24:36.:24:40.

the Prime Minister to try to get reelected as an overall Government,

:24:40.:24:45.

go to renegotiate in Europe and put that renegotiate in an in-out

:24:45.:24:48.

referendum. You just don't think you'll get very far in the

:24:48.:24:52.

renegotiation? That's right. I don't think he will achieve anything

:24:52.:24:58.

substantial. I think there will be extreme reluctance to offer anything

:24:58.:25:02.

substantial. There will be extreme reluctance to offering to us alone

:25:02.:25:06.

because other countries will say what about us and so on. With the

:25:06.:25:10.

best will in the world, I don't think it's on. I think if the

:25:10.:25:15.

British people see that no fault of his but because they're not prepared

:25:15.:25:21.

to yield, it takes two sides to do a deal, if the British people see that

:25:21.:25:26.

he's really come back with an empty bucket of goodies then I don't think

:25:26.:25:29.

they're going to be fooled in the way they were with the Wilson

:25:29.:25:35.

episode. This issue could face Labour and the Lib Dems as well. If

:25:35.:25:39.

the eurozone, I've come back from Europe where the talk is what kind

:25:39.:25:43.

of political, fiscal union do they need to make the eurozone work now,

:25:43.:25:48.

that will inevitably involve treaty change and we could need a

:25:48.:25:53.

referendum any way for this treaty change. That's absolutely right.

:25:53.:25:57.

That is slightly different because the referendum will only be about do

:25:57.:26:03.

you agree with the particular things in this new treaty. Rather than

:26:03.:26:08.

in-out. Yes. The eurozone cannot become an ever closer union to quote

:26:08.:26:11.

the treaty of Rome without that having consequences of Britain and

:26:11.:26:15.

changing our relationship any way. Yes, absolutely. And people want a

:26:15.:26:17.

referendum. I mean there's no question about that. Having said

:26:18.:26:20.

that they'd like a referendum on everything. They like the idea of

:26:20.:26:27.

having their say. As Mr Atly once said, " We expect a period of quiet

:26:27.:26:32.

from you now? I should think, so for a little while. Next time you have

:26:32.:26:35.

anything to say, come back and see us. Thank you very much.Nigel

:26:35.:26:40.

Lawson. Where next for the EU Referendum Bill? Let's look at an

:26:40.:26:43.

ancient Parliamentary procedure looks a lot like bingo and it

:26:43.:26:49.

occurred this morning. 20 names were drawn in reverse order in the

:26:49.:26:54.

private members ballot. Number one... The last but not least and

:26:54.:27:04.
:27:04.:27:20.

the winner of the day is- shake them up, David- 199. James W had a rton.

:27:20.:27:25.

-- Wharton. Order, order that concludes the proceedings.

:27:25.:27:30.

winner James Wharton joins us now. Congratulations, what will your bill

:27:30.:27:33.

be? I'm going to take forward the Conservative Party draft bill on

:27:34.:27:37.

legislating for a referendum on our relationship with the European Union

:27:37.:27:43.

by the end of 2017. OK, but yesterday you blamed colleagues who

:27:43.:27:46.

"enjoy the limelight for allowing the debate about Europe to crowd out

:27:46.:27:50.

discussion of other topics" what happened? I think that's the point.

:27:50.:27:54.

We've been talking about Europe a lot in recent weeks and it keeps

:27:54.:27:57.

coming to the surface and being debated. Most of my constituents

:27:57.:28:00.

want me to talk about the cost of living, education, hospitals, things

:28:00.:28:05.

that matter to them. Why don't you do a bill on that? Because this

:28:05.:28:08.

European issue hangs over so many aspects of British life and

:28:08.:28:13.

political debate, I think it's time that we resolve it and MPs of all

:28:13.:28:16.

political persuasions should be given their opportunity to vote to

:28:16.:28:20.

have their say on whether we believe we should have a referendum or not.

:28:20.:28:24.

I hope when it's done it can put this issue to bed and focus on the

:28:24.:28:28.

other issues that matter deeply to the constituents. Have you spoken to

:28:29.:28:31.

the whips or do they speak to you in advance about this choice of

:28:31.:28:35.

subject? They didn't speak to me in advance. But I have spoken to the

:28:35.:28:39.

whips. Given the debate over the last couple of of weeks any

:28:39.:28:42.

Conservative MP was high up the private members ballot was expected

:28:42.:28:46.

this is what they would take forward, a very important issue that

:28:46.:28:51.

needs to be resolved. Clarify, the Conservative whips want you to take

:28:51.:28:56.

this bill forward? They haven't formally said they want me to do it,

:28:56.:28:59.

I've had discussions and they're supportive, as are colleagues across

:28:59.:29:03.

the party. I should say colleagues from different parties as well. I've

:29:03.:29:07.

had a stream of text messages, e-mails and calls from MPs wanting

:29:07.:29:12.

to support the bills, not just Conservatives, but in the Opposition

:29:12.:29:15.

too. It's important that people are given the opportunity to have their

:29:15.:29:20.

say. You know, this isn't the end of the story by bringing this forward.

:29:20.:29:25.

This just kicks the story further down the road and puts more strain

:29:25.:29:29.

on the coalition, that's all it does. Your bill's never going to

:29:29.:29:33.

become law but it will continue to stir things up in the coalition?

:29:33.:29:37.

That depends on what happens when this is brought before the floor of

:29:37.:29:43.

the House. I hope MPs will be given the chance to vote with their

:29:43.:29:47.

consciences and to agree or not. The Liberal Democrats promised an in-out

:29:47.:29:51.

referendum in the manifesto at the last election. Nick Clegg has a bad

:29:51.:29:54.

reputation for going back on his promises. I hope he won't go back on

:29:54.:29:57.

this one and think again about his positions. Any indication that's the

:29:57.:30:02.

Government will make time for this? My understands is that it can only

:30:02.:30:06.

make time if all the coalition agrees and they don't. That's one of

:30:06.:30:10.

the challenges. You don't necessarily need Government time if

:30:10.:30:13.

you get it through in Private Members' Bill time. It's helpful if

:30:13.:30:19.

the Government time table scope for debate on this. That can only be

:30:19.:30:22.

done with both sides agreeing. The indication shows that's not likely

:30:22.:30:25.

to happen. The Liberal Democrats promised they would support a

:30:25.:30:29.

referendum. I want to hold them to that promise. If they don't, it will

:30:29.:30:33.

be another promise they have broken. I don't think people will look

:30:33.:30:37.

kindly on it, whatever the view of Europe. You came first in the

:30:37.:30:39.

Parliamentary bingo, are you buying a lottery ticket this weekend? As

:30:39.:30:45.

tempted as I am, I don't know if aisle Sree time. I was going back to

:30:45.:30:48.

my constituency today for a busy day, which has been rescheduled

:30:48.:30:52.

because of all that's taken place this morning. You're already

:30:52.:30:56.

neglected his constituency in pursuit of this. We've had to

:30:56.:30:59.

reschedule a number of things, I'll be there over the weekend but I'm

:30:59.:31:03.

not sure about the lottery ticket. I'm sure you can find the time. My

:31:03.:31:05.

I'm sure you can find the time. My I'm sure you can find the time. My

:31:05.:31:15.
:31:15.:31:21.

I'm sure you can find the time. My are joining us. They have been

:31:21.:31:24.

watching first Minister's Questions in Hollywood and now join us on the

:31:24.:31:29.

Daily Politics. Now for something completely different.

:31:29.:31:35.

Brian Mawhinney's greatest hits. At five, Brian, the boy from Belfast,

:31:35.:31:37.

became a Conservative minister in the Northern Ireland since in the

:31:37.:31:43.

early 90s. A decision was made to bring extra troops to the province.

:31:43.:31:48.

At four, he had his demonise on labour as chairman of the

:31:48.:31:54.

Conservative Party. At three, he took to the beat as shadow home

:31:54.:32:01.

secretary. At two, the early noughties saw him kicking off his

:32:01.:32:05.

career in the beautiful game as chairman of the football league.

:32:05.:32:10.

These clubs understand the realities and want to move football forward

:32:10.:32:15.

under the umbrella of good governance. And that one, in 2005,

:32:15.:32:22.

he donned the ermine, and the boy from Belfast became a barren.

:32:22.:32:32.
:32:32.:32:32.

And Brian Mawhinney is here. When you see some of that, would you

:32:32.:32:38.

agree that politics has changed a lot? Yes, it has. For better or

:32:38.:32:47.

worse? Truthfully, I think the jury is out. There is a lot more

:32:47.:32:56.

information available now in all sorts of new media. I am not sure

:32:56.:33:00.

that Parliament has come to terms with how important all of that is.

:33:00.:33:07.

Should it be more important? Should it be just another manifestation of

:33:07.:33:10.

what is old timers used to know by talking to people day in and day

:33:10.:33:16.

out? The idea that MPs now know a lot more about what the public

:33:16.:33:23.

thinks, I am not sure that is accurate. At least we are good MPs.

:33:23.:33:27.

One thing that has not changed is that Tory leaders asked in a pickle

:33:27.:33:33.

over Europe. If you will forgive me saying so, it is deja vu all over

:33:33.:33:39.

again. Would you have any advice, having lived through all this, for

:33:39.:33:45.

Mr Cameron? This may ruin my reputation, but I want to agree with

:33:45.:33:50.

what you were saying over Europe. What was that? That Europe is not

:33:50.:33:56.

the big issue. The big issue is the economy. The economy embraces the

:33:56.:34:06.

issue of Europe. The single currency, the movement toward data

:34:06.:34:16.
:34:16.:34:17.

unity, all of those affect us. Business in the countries of Europe

:34:17.:34:22.

is not going well at the moment. That affect us. I am not trying to

:34:22.:34:27.

say Europe is irrelevant, but Europe is primarily important in the

:34:27.:34:34.

context of the economy, which is the number one issue. Which is your

:34:34.:34:38.

point. And immigration as well. But people are bill will did about why

:34:38.:34:42.

politicians spend so much time talking about it. It feels very out

:34:42.:34:48.

of touch to them. But your party have a problem they did not have in

:34:48.:34:51.

your day, which is that they have this substantial challenge from the

:34:51.:34:56.

right now. Mrs Thatcher never left room for a challenge from the right

:34:56.:35:00.

on most issues. And if one materialised, it quickly petered

:35:00.:35:05.

out. We have seen the latest polls today, and UKIP is on a roll.

:35:05.:35:14.

agree again with you, in the sense that it is part of the job of

:35:14.:35:18.

Conservative leadership to make sure that they can't be passed on the

:35:18.:35:25.

right. Where they want to place themselves on the spectrum, I have

:35:25.:35:30.

always been, as I suspect you know, somebody who believes that you win

:35:30.:35:34.

elections by being fairly close to the centre. You can't get elected on

:35:34.:35:41.

a core vote of 30%. Excuse me, but I am an expert. You have got to

:35:41.:35:48.

broaden the base towards the centre. Leadership needs to make

:35:48.:35:55.

sure you can't be passed on the right. Where it puts itself is a

:35:55.:36:03.

matter for political judgement. We are seeing a certain amount of

:36:03.:36:06.

movement at the moment. I am old-fashioned enough to believe that

:36:06.:36:09.

in two years' time, you will be spending less time talking about

:36:10.:36:15.

UKIP. They will love to hear you say that, because that is what they want

:36:15.:36:19.

you to think. Everybody says they want to win from the centre. The

:36:19.:36:25.

question is, whereas the? Mr Miliband thinks he has the party we

:36:25.:36:29.

want to see. Some people think Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher have

:36:29.:36:33.

been able to define whether centre is themselves. It is interesting at

:36:33.:36:38.

the moment. If you ask people, whereas the centre, and where are

:36:38.:36:41.

the main parties, people now think the Conservative Party is further to

:36:42.:36:46.

the right than it used to be and the Labour Party is further to the left.

:36:46.:36:54.

Both are pulling away in the wrong direction. Let me tell you why I

:36:54.:36:57.

think your analysis is right. The reason UKIP won't be pleased to hear

:36:57.:37:03.

me say it is because I say it on the basis that they don't have a

:37:04.:37:11.

coherent little strategy or set of policies which will create, in the

:37:11.:37:16.

minds of people, people form a judgement about a party and a

:37:16.:37:26.
:37:26.:37:26.

leader. They do not looked at 12 manifesto commitments. They look at

:37:26.:37:31.

people and how they behave and what the party is about, and they form a

:37:31.:37:37.

judgement. And when UKIP starts getting under the searchlight which

:37:37.:37:39.

you generously spread across the rest of the political parties week

:37:39.:37:47.

in and week out, I am not hopeful. What is the title of your book?

:37:47.:37:52.

a simple Belfast boy. In all good book shops. Thank you for being with

:37:52.:37:58.

They are ahead in the polls, they won a raft of seats in this month's

:37:59.:38:03.

local elections and their opponents are in turmoil over Europe. Despite

:38:03.:38:07.

these positives, a lot of critics are asking why it has gone wrong for

:38:07.:38:11.

labour and white Ed Miliband does not seem to be cutting through to

:38:11.:38:20.

the public. In an increasingly complicated

:38:20.:38:24.

political world, Ed Miliband is going back to basics and bringing

:38:24.:38:28.

back the soapbox. It is his way of showing he is down with the voters,

:38:28.:38:35.

and it did work for John Major. The only problem is that in Ed's case,

:38:35.:38:42.

the voters have yet to be convinced. The electorate does not see Ed

:38:42.:38:46.

Miliband as a potential prime minister at the moment. People

:38:46.:38:50.

preferred David Cameron as prime minister to Ed Miliband, because Ed

:38:50.:38:53.

Miliband is seen to lack the particular qualities a prime

:38:53.:38:59.

minister needs. It is a fantastic day for Mr Woodley. You should all

:38:59.:39:03.

buy Mr Wigley's ice cream today. despite the coalition's best

:39:03.:39:09.

efforts, Labour's poll could do with some sprinkles. Our polls have shown

:39:09.:39:14.

Labour ahead for ten points for most of the year. But recently, it has

:39:15.:39:20.

been more like seven points. Labour are not sufficiently far ahead for

:39:20.:39:23.

the party to be confident of winning the next election. The rise of UKIP

:39:23.:39:27.

and the SNP mean that we now have in effect for party politics, so maybe

:39:27.:39:32.

those big old Leeds are a thing of the past. No party has won an

:39:32.:39:38.

immediate outright majority in 80 years. So are people asking too much

:39:38.:39:42.

of Ed? You have to hang on a minute. We did lose that last

:39:42.:39:47.

general election, so we had to regroup but we are already topping

:39:48.:39:51.

the polls, although to read some papers, you would not believe that.

:39:51.:40:01.

We bring better than UKIP, contrary to the reports you here, and we are

:40:01.:40:03.

winning in all parts of the country, whether that is hollow or Hastings.

:40:03.:40:06.

We have a message that appeals broadly across the country. But that

:40:06.:40:15.

kind of thinking actually frightens Labour's internal critics. The real

:40:15.:40:21.

danger is that the people around Ed Dick they can somehow get there on

:40:21.:40:27.

one more heave, that they can cross the line with a final surge of

:40:27.:40:31.

disaffected Lib Dem voters and Labour's core vote to give them the

:40:31.:40:35.

majority they need. But all the evidence is that you have to reach

:40:35.:40:40.

way beyond your base. But how? Labour and Ed Miliband need to start

:40:40.:40:45.

taking risks. When Tony Blair was leader of the opposition in the 90s,

:40:45.:40:49.

Labour had a huge poll lead and Tony Blair was rightly very defensive and

:40:49.:40:53.

reassuring. He did not want to lose that Labour vote. Ed Miliband does

:40:53.:40:59.

not have a beginner lead to operate a defensive strategy. It is like a

:40:59.:41:03.

football club a goal down at half-time. It needs to go on the

:41:03.:41:08.

attack and take risks and be bolder. That tone could then help deal with

:41:08.:41:13.

the other problems to do with economic competence and perceptions

:41:13.:41:17.

of Ed Miliband's leadership. needs to speak a language that

:41:17.:41:20.

people can understand. All this talk of predators versus producers and

:41:20.:41:25.

all of the jargon may have some coherent ideas behind it, but if you

:41:25.:41:29.

can't explain that across a garden fence, what is the point of it?

:41:29.:41:33.

There is no point being the cleverest man in the room if no one

:41:33.:41:37.

understands you. Convincing people you should be their leader is tough.

:41:37.:41:41.

Ed Miliband is certainly putting in the leg work. But at the moment, it

:41:41.:41:46.

seems the people are still looking for something more.

:41:46.:41:51.

I am joined now by Labour's shadow public health minister, Diane

:41:51.:41:55.

Abbott, and by the populist pollster, Ric Nye. Why is Labour

:41:55.:42:02.

doing so poorly? You can't judge everything by the latest round of

:42:02.:42:10.

local election results. They were elections in county seats. We forget

:42:10.:42:13.

history. I don't think Cameron was cutting through so well at this

:42:14.:42:22.

point. And he did not win the election. And there is that!She is

:42:22.:42:28.

already hitting me after being on for two minutes! Is Ed Miliband

:42:28.:42:36.

ready to be prime minister? 66% say no. That is partly reflecting what

:42:36.:42:42.

people have read in the media. They are too stupid to make up their own

:42:42.:42:50.

minds? No, but you know journalists affect how people think. And it is

:42:50.:42:54.

partly reflecting a lot of embittered David Miliband

:42:54.:43:03.

supporters. 54% think it is unlikely that he will be PM, and 66% don't

:43:03.:43:07.

think he is ready. I would suggest that the real weakness for Labour is

:43:07.:43:12.

that in national politics, if you put aside the issues in Wales,

:43:12.:43:15.

Scotland and Northern Ireland, but on the overall national issues, if

:43:15.:43:19.

you don't like this coalition, there was only one major party to vote

:43:19.:43:24.

for, which is Labour, because the Lib Dems are part of it. So the

:43:24.:43:29.

centre-left vote is not split any more. If you don't like what this

:43:29.:43:34.

lot are doing, vote Labour, and yet your party is still doing poorly.

:43:34.:43:39.

You will find that the Lib Dems will be better in the general election

:43:39.:43:49.
:43:49.:43:50.

than those polls indicate. That was how they did so well in Eastleigh.

:43:50.:43:54.

We are confident that we will do better. The more that people meet Ed

:43:55.:44:00.

Miliband, the more persuaded they will be. Let me put a proposition to

:44:00.:44:09.

you. For this stage in the political cycle, Labour's poll lead is narrow

:44:09.:44:14.

and not robust. Discuss. It is comfortable in one sense, but very

:44:14.:44:20.

soft in another. A regular seven to ten point lead, depending on what

:44:20.:44:24.

poll you are looking at. But the dilemma for Labour is whether they

:44:24.:44:32.

stick or twist. Do they stay where they are, thinking that the Liberal

:44:32.:44:35.

Democrats -- disaffected Liberal Democrat voters will take them into

:44:35.:44:44.

the next election? Or do they just wait for it all to go wrong with the

:44:44.:44:49.

coalition, or do they start to take some strategic risks as your film

:44:49.:44:53.

suggested to flesh out the kind of prime minister that Ed Miliband

:44:53.:44:56.

would be? If I were a Labour strategist, I would be worried that

:44:56.:45:02.

the lead is not that great and seems a bit flaky. And yet we have just

:45:02.:45:06.

had three years of the most miserable economic news. Almost none

:45:06.:45:09.

of the coalition's economic indicators have come right, but now

:45:09.:45:14.

they look like they might be. Doesn't that make my lead, speaking

:45:14.:45:24.
:45:24.:45:33.

as a virtual Labour strategist, even less robust? Clearly Labour is not

:45:33.:45:39.

doing well enough. No party... Has come back from this kind of...

:45:39.:45:45.

Why? I think they're not setting out their stall clearly enough. Is it

:45:45.:45:52.

not also that people do not see Mr Miliband as Prime Ministerial?

:45:52.:45:54.

Almost invariably you don't see someone as Prime Minister or

:45:54.:45:58.

president,if you like, until they are in that role. Soy don't think,

:45:58.:46:00.

he doesn't look like a Prime Minister, I don't buy that. I think

:46:00.:46:05.

just to pick up on what was said in the film, I actually don't think Ed

:46:05.:46:11.

Miliband himself believes in the one more heave theory. I think he feels

:46:11.:46:15.

he has to transform thinking. needs to do so much more than he's

:46:15.:46:23.

doing at the moment. Alan Johnson says he's showing too much in policy

:46:23.:46:28.

terms. I don't think it's policy, it's vision. People don't know what

:46:28.:46:33.

he stands for or believes in. vision, at least we know the

:46:33.:46:40.

direction, his vision is to lay out his stall on a kind of as yet

:46:40.:46:44.

undefined left which is maybe not left in the way old Labour was, but

:46:44.:46:48.

not left in the way that New Labour was either. What is the evidence

:46:48.:46:54.

that this country is moving left? Well, I think Ed Miliband himself

:46:54.:46:57.

wouldn't use the word left to describe his thinking. When you say

:46:57.:47:02.

what is the evidence that people are ready for a non-right-wing analysis,

:47:02.:47:06.

if you look at the polls one of the issues people are most angry about

:47:06.:47:10.

is bankers. This includes a lot of Tory voters. I think we can

:47:11.:47:14.

capitalise on that. That's what the Tories and Lib Dems are doing, what

:47:14.:47:18.

is the evidence other than the bankers, which everybody agrees

:47:18.:47:23.

with, it may be fair or unfair, but they, do what is the evidence that

:47:23.:47:28.

the general mood of the country has moved left. Because when I add up

:47:28.:47:33.

the Tory vote and UKIP vote it seems to me it's moving right. You seem to

:47:33.:47:36.

think that George Osborne's economic policies are going to succeed.

:47:36.:47:43.

not at all. I've never said that. That's not what Christine Legard at

:47:43.:47:47.

the IMF... What is the evidence that it's moving left? I think as the

:47:47.:47:51.

public has to watch in slow motion the collapse of Osborne's plans and

:47:51.:47:55.

as people understand the reality of these benefit cuts, I know they're

:47:55.:47:59.

very popular now, that's because they think it's applying to someone

:47:59.:48:04.

else, but the reality is that the country will move to Labour. A big

:48:04.:48:10.

if, if there was to be an economic recovery, of a tangible size, not a

:48:10.:48:16.

boom, but some kind of recovery that people felt it was getting better,

:48:16.:48:21.

you'd be skullered. If there was -- scuppered. If there was economic

:48:21.:48:26.

recovery, pigs would fly. So you're relying on that? I'm not relying on

:48:26.:48:35.

it. Your winning formula depends on the country going to hell in a hand

:48:35.:48:41.

basket? No, I'm saying that the things... Remember 1992.I do

:48:41.:48:45.

remember 1992 very vividly. didn't you win that? The economy was

:48:45.:48:52.

a basket case. There was the legacy of SDP and the rest of it. I am

:48:52.:48:57.

saying that as events move forward... You have UKIP to worry

:48:57.:49:02.

about. Yeah and they're having a nervous break down. In all the

:49:02.:49:05.

polling you do, what sense of direction do you get that the

:49:05.:49:11.

country is going in? I get the sense that the country is still feeling

:49:11.:49:21.
:49:21.:49:21.

quite pessimistic about the future. What they don't feel is that Labour

:49:21.:49:25.

is the alternative has a vision for the future of the country. They know

:49:25.:49:28.

they're not the coalition. I'm not sure that is a sufficient condition

:49:28.:49:32.

for Labour to win the next election. That is absolutely right. They don't

:49:32.:49:37.

know enough about what Labour or Ed stands for. Ed's own ratings are OK

:49:37.:49:43.

but they're not good enough. People are less likely now to recognise him

:49:43.:49:50.

than a year ago. He's disappearing. Not a dangerous straighty for the

:49:50.:49:54.

Opposition that the economy's got to continue to stagnate? Even if it

:49:54.:50:00.

did, we saw in 1992, as we were just saying that people didn't turn,

:50:00.:50:06.

flock towards Labour, actually they thought I'm staying where I am, I'm

:50:06.:50:15.

scared. Were you surprised in '92? That was different. The polls were

:50:15.:50:21.

wrong. I'm talking about the crisis in masculinity in a few minutes.

:50:21.:50:28.

not got a job? I am the Shadow for public health. Do you want to hear

:50:28.:50:35.

about drug abuse or alcohol alcoholism, mental health? According

:50:35.:50:39.

to Dianne, men are not what they used to be. Have they over the years

:50:39.:50:42.

lost their way? Is it because women are so good at everything these

:50:42.:50:49.

days? Oar Kyle: The housewives find time

:50:49.:50:53.

between chores to tackle the job of brick laying, using old bricks

:50:53.:51:00.

they're building a wall and training come in useful. The only difference

:51:00.:51:10.
:51:10.:51:18.

between mixing pastry and cement is housemaids knee. So a kneeling pad

:51:18.:51:28.
:51:28.:51:38.

ones, the wall is a pretty good effort. Even an expert couldn't find

:51:38.:51:42.

fault with the way Joan taps the bricks into line, they're on the

:51:42.:51:52.
:51:52.:51:53.

level. Here's something every

:51:53.:51:56.

self-respecting British workman stops for, a nice cup of tea.

:51:56.:51:59.

There's no time to relax, their husbands will soon be home and

:51:59.:52:05.

they're always so tired. Thanks to the Daily Politics team

:52:05.:52:08.

who shot that film this morning in North London. They just lost the

:52:08.:52:12.

colour code and Dianne here has been talking about men all morning. She

:52:12.:52:15.

often talks about men, but she's been talking about men in a speech

:52:15.:52:19.

this morning to a think-tank. It's called Demos. She's now joined by a

:52:19.:52:24.

man who likes to talk about men as well, Ian Collins from LBC. Good

:52:24.:52:28.

morning to you both. This crisis of masculinity, what is it I should be

:52:28.:52:34.

worried about? You're not worried Andrew because you're an Alpha male.

:52:34.:52:40.

But 90% of... Alpha male?90% of men are not. Society and the economy has

:52:40.:52:44.

changed in ways which challenge some of the certainties about what

:52:44.:52:50.

masculinity was. Some men, not just under-class men, but some men are

:52:50.:52:54.

challenged by that. I think we need to have a conversation about that.

:52:54.:52:57.

I've had so much response to this speech. I've only just delivered it.

:52:57.:53:02.

It's an issue people want to engage with. Are you challenged?

:53:02.:53:06.

confused, Andrew. That's the problem. Is the Labour frontbench so

:53:06.:53:09.

bereft of masculinity that the lovely Dianne had to be wheeled out

:53:09.:53:15.

for this one? What the heck happened there? I like to think that I've

:53:15.:53:21.

seen every variant of masculine identity... The on the Labour

:53:21.:53:28.

frontbench? MPs exhibit every type of patriarchal behaviour that you

:53:28.:53:32.

want to see. You feel every year something like this comes up, that

:53:32.:53:37.

men are challenged, that men aren't macho niche. Nothing's changed

:53:37.:53:44.

really. Things have changed. I think men of my father's generation saw

:53:45.:53:49.

you know defined themselves as men by earning and providing and

:53:49.:53:54.

protecting. I think in a new economy, where the sorts of jobs

:53:54.:53:59.

which traditionally blue collar men didn't do no longer exist was more

:53:59.:54:05.

service oriented. Increasingly we see young men who define themselves

:54:05.:54:08.

by conspicuous consumption and materialism. I think that can be

:54:09.:54:14.

problematic. I'm not saying I like the black and white film we just

:54:14.:54:17.

saw, there was a golden era for men. But I am saying that people want to

:54:17.:54:21.

talk about what is the definition of masculinity when it's no longer

:54:21.:54:25.

about earning and providing zpl. What does Britain think men? I think

:54:25.:54:29.

that men have changed. I think they've changed for the better on

:54:29.:54:34.

the whole. I think that most men would expect now to have more to do

:54:34.:54:38.

with their children than they did a generation ago. They expect to do

:54:38.:54:41.

more house work than they did a generation ago. You say that, but

:54:41.:54:46.

you're talking about the men you know. I'm not.I'm talking about men

:54:46.:54:51.

in Hackney and the kind of men in families studies Whose life is more

:54:51.:54:53.

uncertain than it would have been in the days when London was a shipping

:54:54.:54:58.

port. That's my point. It's just an evolution. Things change. It doesn't

:54:58.:55:03.

mean there's a crisis. I'm a socialist. I believe in change. Buff

:55:03.:55:07.

actually, even though people are less... You're a socialist? You're

:55:07.:55:12.

in the Labour Party. Even though people are less homophobic at a

:55:12.:55:16.

certain level, you see more gross and aggressive, violent homophobia

:55:16.:55:20.

on the streets and on estates than you saw when I was a child. Not

:55:20.:55:23.

everything has got better. mention technology and one of the

:55:23.:55:29.

elements you were talking about was the pornification of males, that

:55:29.:55:33.

we're dealing with that at the moment. These things usually exist

:55:33.:55:39.

within a very small minority of men. No. It is part of an evolution. We

:55:39.:55:42.

don't send blokes down pits any more. People get use to theed idea

:55:42.:55:45.

that the work place has changed. The structure socially has changed. It's

:55:45.:55:50.

a different kind of bloke. It's not a minority of men and boys. The

:55:50.:55:55.

average age of boys doing hard core, I don't mean girls, hard core porn

:55:55.:56:00.

online 11. That's, I don't think that's a change for the better.

:56:00.:56:05.

Probably a technological change. If they could have done it years ago,

:56:05.:56:08.

but look we have a minister for women, should we have a minister for

:56:08.:56:14.

men? No.What's your point? Why do you want one for women though?

:56:14.:56:20.

think every answer is dependent on Government as a socialist. No, not

:56:20.:56:27.

that side of government. There are ways, especially economic, that

:56:27.:56:31.

women have issues and challenges. All of us need to discuss masculine

:56:31.:56:35.

identity. Labour Party has a women's conference, should we have a men's

:56:35.:56:40.

conference on men's issues? That's the same argument if we have a black

:56:40.:56:48.

history month, why not a white history month. If you want to get

:56:48.:56:56.

George Galloway back... I'm not. This is the gig for Galloway. Ed has

:56:56.:57:02.

cuddled up with gorgeous George and then spectacularly denied it.

:57:02.:57:07.

Ed does in his private time is his business. Thank you.We've not an

:57:07.:57:12.

answer to the famous Leninist question on this- what is to be

:57:13.:57:16.

done? Better sex and health education and relationship education

:57:16.:57:20.

in schools. Putting full employment as a goal of public policy back at

:57:20.:57:25.

the centre and having Sure Start and parenting classes... It's never been

:57:25.:57:29.

-- there's never been betser education. Sex and health education

:57:29.:57:35.

is very poor. Also putter things like Sure Start and family classes

:57:35.:57:39.

should actually focus on men some of the time. I thought when you started

:57:39.:57:44.

that sentence I thought you were going to stop after you said "better

:57:44.:57:52.

sex", that That was going to be Labour's policy. All right, good to

:57:52.:57:55.

see you again. Thanks very much. Just time before we go to find out

:57:55.:57:58.

the answer to the quiz. Which of these requests has the Foreign

:57:58.:58:04.

Office not been asked to assist with? Silencing a noisy cock re,

:58:04.:58:08.

recommend the best place to watch football, order a husband to get fit

:58:08.:58:13.

and eat healthily so that he and his wife could have children, request an

:58:13.:58:18.

audience with the Pope. Which was have they not dealt with? The Pope.

:58:18.:58:22.

That's correct. We made that one up. Every other one is real, including

:58:22.:58:26.

get a husband to lose weight. That's it. Thanks to our guests. The one

:58:26.:58:31.

o'clock news is on BBC One. I'm back tonight on BBC One with a super

:58:31.:58:37.

model line up, Tessa Jowell, Michael Portillo, Katie Price, Adam Boulton

:58:37.:58:41.

and Toby Young. But not Dianne. She's in the allowed on any more.

:58:41.:58:47.

What can I say? ! Join me this week at 11. 35pm on BBC One. I'm back

:58:47.:58:54.

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