06/12/2013 Daily Politics


06/12/2013

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Afternoon, folks, welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:45.:00:48.

World leaders pay tribute to Nelson Mandela, after the former South

:00:49.:00:51.

African president dies at the age of 95. We'll hear from Britain's former

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High Commissioner to South Africa, Paul Boateng.

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As the dust settles on George Osborne's Autumn Statement, the

:00:57.:00:59.

Chancellor has a spring in his step. But how resilient is the recovery?

:01:00.:01:04.

Questions, too, for Ed Balls, left red in the face after a stumbling

:01:05.:01:09.

performance in the House of Commons. We'll discuss the political fall-out

:01:10.:01:12.

of the Chancellor's statement with a trio of frontbenchers.

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And in the latest of our series on great political thinkers, Toby Young

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tells us about his favourite philosopher. JS Mill was the first

:01:19.:01:29.

political philosopher I read, aged 17, as part of preparing for my

:01:30.:01:34.

Oxford interview. I was a punk anarchist at the time.

:01:35.:01:41.

Punk anarchist? What is that? All that in the next hour, and with

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us for the duration, Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee, and the

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editor of the financial newspaper City AM, Allister Heath. Welcome to

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the Daily Politics. We start, of course, with the death

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of Nelson Mandela. Mr Mandela had been suffering from a lung illness

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for a long time and had been receiving treatment at home since

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September, when he was discharged from hospital. The news was

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announced just before 10:00pm London time by the current South African

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president, Jacob Zuma. Today, South Africans have gathered in

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Johannesburg and Soweto to mourn his death and celebrate his life.

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Tributes have been paid by political leaders around the world. Tonight,

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one of the brightest lights of our world has gone out. Now some Mandela

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was not just a hero of our time but a hero of all time. The first

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president of a free South Africa, a man who suffered so much for freedom

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and justice. And a man who threw his dignity -- through his dignity and

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triumph, inspired millions. We will not likely see the likes of Nelson

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Mandela again, so it falls to us, as best we can, to follow the example

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he set. To make decisions guided not by hate but by love. To never

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discount the difference that one person can make. To strive for a

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future that is worthy of his sacrifice. For now, let us pause and

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give thanks to the fact that not some Mandela lived. A man who took

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history in his hands. And bent the arc of the moral universe towards

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justice. He is now resting. He is now at peace. Our nation has lost

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its greatest son. Our people have lost a father.

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South Africa's president, Jacob Zuma. Of course, Nelson Mandela's

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life had a huge impact on British politics. Ross Hawkins looks back on

:04:04.:04:05.

the changing attitudes towards South Africa and the relationships forged

:04:06.:04:16.

between both countries. A politician honoured to like no

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other, with ceremony and a statue at Westminster in 2007. It wasn't

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always like this. As he recalled at the time. When we visited

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Westminster Abbey in Parliament Square in 1962, we half joke that we

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hoped that one day a statue of a black person would be erected here.

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Some hope. Nelson Mandela, who met Labour and Liberal leaders back then

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but not the Conservative minister, Harold Macmillan, was a wanted man

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in South Africa. Two years later he would be jailed for sabotage. He was

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still in prison when Margaret Thatcher became Prime Minister. She

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regarded his African National Congress as a terrorist

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organisation. She wanted an end to apartheid but opposed, rents of

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economic sanctions, argued they hurt black South Africans. You don't want

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to always hand the stick to South Africa, I think she is a bit fed up

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with that. When she does things that we want her to do, I think we have

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got to encourage her. This was the era of the Cold War. The West feared

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commonest influence on the ANC. Global concerns were different back

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then. The ANC had the support of the communist world because the West

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would not support it, with the exception of Scandinavian countries

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like Sweden. So many countries in the West, including Britain and the

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United States, almost saw not some Mandela as agents of cumin is.

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Nonsense, but that is the way it was seen -- agents of communism. When

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his freedom finally came, the world was different and the politics had

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shifted. Once he was released, everything changed. It all switch to

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trying to create a harmonious transition to a different type of

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South Africa. The Conservative Party attitudes changed, John Major was by

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minister and was very supportive. By 1996, Nelson Mandela was addressing

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parliament, and politicians from all sides assembled to pay tribute. This

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was a star like no other. One who could inspire, move and bring call

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political gold dust. -- sprinkle political gold dust.

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I can see men and women who were the candidates to immortality. A Tory

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leader battling Tony Blair met Nelson Mandela and said the

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Conservatives had got it wrong on the ANC and on sanctions. And the

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man who first came to Britain as a fugitive is now celebrated by the

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right and left alike, as the greatest and most successful of

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politicians. Ross Hawkins, with a reminder of

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Nelson Mandela's impact on British politics. We've been joined by the

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Labour politician, Paul Boateng, who served as Britain's High

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Commissioner to South Africa from 2005 to 2009. Welcome to the Daily

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Politics. A sad day, in the aftermath of learning of Mr

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Mandela's death last night. You met him when he got out of prison. I met

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him in Geneva at the world Council of churches, his first public outing

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was to Switzerland and the churches. Who had been at the backbone of the

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anti-apartheid struggle, who had stood alongside him when many

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described him as a terrorist, many wore T-shirts that said, hanging

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Nelson Mandela. A very different time. You saw that this was a man

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imbued with values and a vision. He gave that to politics. And it is

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that which is so sorely missing for politics, not just in South Africa

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but in our world today. What had prison done to him? I think it had

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strengthened him, ironically. This was a man who had always had focus

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and discipline. That was the hallmark of his life up until then.

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That was amplified in prison context. He was always, and we

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should never forget, a freedom fighter. He believed and led the

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armed struggle. But such was the overwhelming power of love in his

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life, that he knew that part of the discipline and focus of that had to

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be the capacity to reconcile, had to be the capacity to build bridges.

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Whenever I met him, in whatever capacity that was, whether it was a

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lay church person as a Cabinet minister, or High Commissioner,

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always there was this sense that he had this profound moral purpose,

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linked with an acute political strategy. He was not, and it is a

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great mistake to paint him as somehow a sort of saintly, innocent

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abroad. He was a politician through and through, an activist, but he had

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a moral compass, and that didn't just guide him and the ANC. We are

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talking about a man who worked alongside the famous names of the

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early ANC. They were part of a movement that had this focus and

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discipline but was rooted in profound values. Is what makes Mr

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Mandela different from all of them, is it this? Would it be fair to say

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that if Nelson Mandela had not existed, the history of South Africa

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could have been very different, in a bad way. I think he played a key

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role at a critical time. But I don't think that he was, in himself,

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bigger than the ANC. He was the product of the ANC, a product of his

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culture, and he brought to that unique personal qualities. But we

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really must not take this man out of his context. It would not have been

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possible to have had a peaceful transition in South Africa...

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Although don't forget, 10,000 people died after his release. But it would

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not have been possible to avoid the racial bloodbath that all feared,

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had it not been for a movement, the ANC, that embraced the path of

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reconciliation and made enormous sacrifices economically for it.

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Because the black man in South Africa today is still grossly

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disadvantaged as compared to the white. And there is still a way to

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go before Nelson Mandela's dream and aspiration for a rainbow nation in

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which the Freedom Charter is embedded is achieved. Mandela was

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the one black leader of all the ones that you have mentioned that had an

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authority and a cut through with the Afrikaner and other white South

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African community. The other ANC leaders did not have that. Mr dig --

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France De Klerk said he could not have done

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it without Mandela. De Klerk was intimately involved in those

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negotiations and there is no doubt the two meant developed a strong

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relationship. In politics, relationships are, at the end of the

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day, very important. That relationship between FW De Klerk and

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Nelson Mandela was an important one. I say again, having lived there and

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work as part of this movement for many years, don't forget the other

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leaders. We are not forgetting any of these. But we are just in the

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aftermath of Mr Mandela's death. Because they are all part of the

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movement. You have made that point. What are your thoughts this morning?

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He does make other world leaders shrivelled, I am afraid. There was

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something so magnanimous and splendid about him. He was

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theatrical and he was wonderful at the theatre of politics. He was a

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politician to his fingertips. There was that great moment when he turned

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up wearing the Springboks colours, Springboks really synonymous with

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white South Africa at the time. That was a theatrical event. I spent a

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lot of my youth outside South Africa house, demonstrating. I worked for

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amnesty in Rhodesia in its apartheid days and thank goodness it has all

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gone but it was horrific. It is sometimes hard to remember it

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happened, it sound so ridiculous. It is extraordinary to think how few

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people supported him. I was 13 when he was released from

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prison and it was probably the first of the big political events that I

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remember. It was this amazing event that 13-year-old Scot involved with.

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I agree -- 13-year-olds got involved with. It is ridiculous, looking

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back, that it took so long for this to happen. To me, it is the end of

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the 20th century, his passing. The end of an era of great struggles

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against oppression for the B had fascism, coming as, apartheid and

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horrible ideologies. It was a great man who transcended everything and

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one of the very few global figures... Gandhi is another one.

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You are right, he is probably the last of the 20th-century figures

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with that iconic status. Polly is right, the ante apartheid --

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anti-apartheid movement was pretty small to begin with and it was a

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long time before it grew. Can we pat ourselves on the back as a country,

:15:12.:15:14.

that written in general, London in particular, -- Britain in general

:15:15.:15:19.

was a main centre for the anti-apartheid movement? I think we

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can all stop there is something special about London and the British

:15:27.:15:30.

people in terms of their capacity to embrace global struggles. Whatever

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their political leaders are saying or doing, and that is to the credit

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of the British people. I found that there were trade union groups, the

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mothers' union, village halls, ordinary people in rural and urban

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England who recognised that apartheid was a gross injustice. But

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there was a hell of a political divide between Labour and the

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Liberals on one side and the Conservatives on the other. But at

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the end of the day, the people won. That is what Nelson Mandela

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symbolises, that whatever happens in terms of the Cold War or party

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politics, people's movements and activism, when rooted in values and

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vision is, can triumph. "The plan is working, but the job of

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recovery is not yet done" . That was the message from Chancellor George

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Osborne yesterday as he outlined his Autumn Statement to MPs. But despite

:16:28.:16:33.

growth returning to the UK economy, the Office for Budget Responsibility

:16:34.:16:36.

warned of the risks with the recovery fuelled by consumer

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spending and high levels of household debt, which could top ?2

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trillion within four years. The OBR expected the economy to grow by 1.4%

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this year, double the 0.6% they predicted in March, and by 2.4% next

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year, higher than they predicted in March as well. The higher than

:16:57.:17:02.

expected level of growth means the chancellor will or less this year

:17:03.:17:08.

that was forecast at the Budget, and he told MPs yesterday that he hopes

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to run a surplus of ?2 billion in 2018-19. The deficit may have

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started falling again after two years of little movement, but total

:17:17.:17:20.

debt is still eye-wateringly high and is due to peak at ?1.4 trillion

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by 2015-16. I have no idea what that means, but it does mean we will have

:17:29.:17:33.

to work for longer, with Osborne announcing that the retirement age

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will go up at a faster rate. Those in their late 30s will now have to

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wait until they are 69 to claim a pension. But it was not all gloomy

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news. The chancellor announced that National Insurance contributions are

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being scrapped for employers taking on someone who is under 21 as part

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of an attempt to bring down youth unemployment. And there were

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measures to help bring down the cost of living. There was the planned 2p

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fuel duty rise for next year which has been cancelled, and average rail

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fares will be frozen in real terms from January. This morning, the

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chancellor was challenged on whether this was the wrong type of recovery,

:18:17.:18:20.

fuelled by consumer spending and high levels of debt. I don't accept

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that, because actually, 400 thousand new jobs have been created this

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year. Those are new opportunities for people, many of whom would have

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been out of work because of the recession we endured in 2008 and

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2009. Jobs are being created in businesses like this and in small

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businesses. Yesterday, we were able to provide help for those high

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street shops trying to stay open. There is better news cost the

:18:57.:18:59.

country, but I would be first to say that we have got to work through

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this plan. The biggest risk would be coming off the plant that has got us

:19:05.:19:09.

this far. So how does the Autumn Statement

:19:10.:19:12.

look 24 hours on? Our political correspondent joins us now. What a

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lovely winter scene. Obviously, the whole Autumn Statement was hugely

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overshadowed by the death of Nelson Mandela, but how does it look this

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morning? What bits are getting praise and what bits are beginning

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to unravel? As you mentioned, the Office for Budget Responsibility,

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set up as an independent body by daughters worn, has been questioning

:19:50.:19:55.

the nature of the recovery -- it was set up by George Osborne. What lies

:19:56.:20:02.

beneath the recovery led by consumer spending? Lots of people are

:20:03.:20:06.

appealing to their much diminished savings in order to spend. That

:20:07.:20:10.

could lead you on to Labour's territory about talking about a cost

:20:11.:20:16.

of living crisis, with people dipping into their savings to make

:20:17.:20:20.

ends meet. There was more disappointing news from the Office

:20:21.:20:22.

for Budget Responsibility, because we are not getting the export led

:20:23.:20:25.

recovery that the government would like. Forecast are disappointing.

:20:26.:20:31.

The OBR are also concerned about house prices, which are rising more

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than they were forecasting in March. Lib Dem Business Secretary Vince

:20:38.:20:44.

Cable is worried about that as well. But the slightly gloomier economic

:20:45.:20:51.

news is not necessarily bad for the chancellor. Going into the next

:20:52.:20:54.

election, his phrase will be, a lot done, a lot still to do. I have

:20:55.:21:00.

given you a recovery, but it is too fragile to be passed into Labour's

:21:01.:21:08.

clumsy hands. They would drop it. He wants voters not to be tempted to

:21:09.:21:12.

say OK, you have sorted out the mess, and now we can trust Labour to

:21:13.:21:16.

spend our money and tackle the cost of living.

:21:17.:21:22.

We are doing to now by the financial Secretary to the Treasury, Sajid

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Javid. The Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Chris Leslie is in our

:21:27.:21:31.

Nottingham studio and in Middlesbrough, the Lib Dem Treasury

:21:32.:21:37.

spokesman, Ian Swales. Sajid Javid, most of the growth this year has

:21:38.:21:42.

been fuelled by consumer spending. House prices are up 7.7% compared to

:21:43.:21:48.

last year. Household debt is 116 million pounds higher than forecast

:21:49.:21:53.

to be six months ago. This is just a mini version of the boom we had in

:21:54.:21:59.

the lead up to 2007. Let me quickly associate myself with the comments

:22:00.:22:03.

of Paul Boateng first on Nelson Mandela, who was an inspiration to

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me and it was sad news yesterday. Turning to your question, what we

:22:10.:22:11.

heard yesterday from the chancellor was confirmation that the economy is

:22:12.:22:17.

growing faster than perceived before. The OECD said a couple of

:22:18.:22:23.

weeks ago that the British economy is growing faster than any other

:22:24.:22:28.

developed economy. There has also been an upgrade in job forecasts.

:22:29.:22:32.

But I was asking you about the content. The economy is growing in

:22:33.:22:41.

all sectors, not just services. Manufacturing and other sectors are

:22:42.:22:46.

growing. Exports are not growing. They are. They fell in the last

:22:47.:22:53.

quarter. Since this government came to office, exports have grown stop

:22:54.:22:58.

it would be an incompetent government that could not get any

:22:59.:23:03.

export growth. They have not grown this year. You could pick one

:23:04.:23:08.

particular quarter and said they did not grow them, but we need to focus

:23:09.:23:14.

on -- we should have focused on exports a decade ago. This

:23:15.:23:19.

government has started doing that. Exports are almost 100% to some

:23:20.:23:27.

countries. We are getting the job done. Business investment is not

:23:28.:23:32.

growing. Overall investment is growing. Business investment is not

:23:33.:23:41.

growing. The economy is growing by 1.4% this year. 1.2% of that is

:23:42.:23:45.

consumer spending. Business investment is a negative -0.4%. It

:23:46.:23:52.

is because of the lack of investment but growth is less than it would be.

:23:53.:23:58.

Investment is coming through. It takes time for confidence to build.

:23:59.:24:07.

But the fact is matter. Business investment has been a drag on

:24:08.:24:13.

growth. It has played no part in the 1.4% growth rate. Alistair, help me

:24:14.:24:20.

out. That is true. Do this investment is a drag on growth. They

:24:21.:24:28.

are hoarding something like 700 LE and pounds -- 700 Ilium pounds.

:24:29.:24:36.

Unfortunately, it seems like the recovery will be driven primarily by

:24:37.:24:42.

consumer spending. Exports are not growing fast enough and

:24:43.:24:44.

house-building is not growing fast enough. We would all like to see all

:24:45.:24:57.

those things grow faster. We have to deal with the huge problems this

:24:58.:25:00.

government has inherited, bigger than any other industrialised

:25:01.:25:05.

country. Part of that was having a method to bring back confidence to

:25:06.:25:07.

the economy, make sure interest rates stay low to encourage

:25:08.:25:13.

investment. Foreign investment is at a record rate in Britain at the

:25:14.:25:19.

moment. In the first six months of this year, the OECD said Britain saw

:25:20.:25:23.

more foreign direct investment than any other country except China. The

:25:24.:25:30.

whole world is investing in us. You are selling off a loss of our stuff

:25:31.:25:33.

to state-owned companies elsewhere. Chinese, French energy, everything

:25:34.:25:38.

we are building and doing here, we seem to be selling to other

:25:39.:25:43.

people's state-owned companies. It is all right to nationalise as long

:25:44.:25:49.

as it is not in this country. Chris Leslie, are you able to answer any

:25:50.:25:53.

of the questions I asked you yesterday that you were not able to

:25:54.:26:00.

answer? Before you repeat the question, I think it would be

:26:01.:26:03.

appropriate if I also paid tribute on the death of Nelson Mandela. It

:26:04.:26:09.

is important that all of our comments are put in that context

:26:10.:26:14.

today. So, does Labour support the principle of a welfare cap? Yes.

:26:15.:26:20.

Would that include tensions? We want to have a welfare cap like the

:26:21.:26:29.

government have said, that tries to define the benefits paid out in

:26:30.:26:32.

society. The best way to do that is to look at the social security

:26:33.:26:38.

expenditure we have over a 20 or 30 year time frame. The cap will

:26:39.:26:47.

probably include some pension benefits in the long-term full of it

:26:48.:26:51.

is not right that the winter fuel allowance is paid to the richest 5%

:26:52.:26:57.

of pensioners. We know there is a triple lock on the basic state

:26:58.:27:01.

pension, and we agree with that. But would Labour's cap, which you agree

:27:02.:27:07.

with in principle, include the state pension? In the near term, we don't

:27:08.:27:10.

think we should depart from the triple lock. But over a 20 or 30

:27:11.:27:18.

year period, if you are managing welfare, just as you have to make

:27:19.:27:20.

changes on life expect to see to reflect the cost of retirement

:27:21.:27:26.

benefits, we need to make tough decisions on this. We will probably

:27:27.:27:30.

need to include pension benefits in the overall welfare expenditure

:27:31.:27:37.

limitations. But it is important to stress that we also believe the

:27:38.:27:42.

triple lock for the basic state pension is important. I don't

:27:43.:27:45.

understand how you can have the triple lock and a cap on benefit

:27:46.:27:51.

that includes pensions. Well, ask Sajid Javid. The government has made

:27:52.:27:57.

it clear that they are excluding pensions, and I want to work out

:27:58.:28:03.

whether you would or would not. You will find that you can't have a

:28:04.:28:09.

welfare cap of ?120 billion. What is the answer? Excluding pensions from

:28:10.:28:19.

the cap. How can you say it is a ?120 billion cap? I am talking about

:28:20.:28:37.

the 120 billion. If you take the state pension out and exclude

:28:38.:28:41.

job-seeker's allowance, you are down to about 120 billion. Have a look at

:28:42.:28:55.

the figures. I have. They made announcements about the retirement

:28:56.:29:00.

age. There are tough decisions to be taken about that. For us, the key is

:29:01.:29:07.

that it is based on evidence and not just ministers to give their finger

:29:08.:29:12.

in the air and making a guess. I will file my questions under F for

:29:13.:29:15.

failure for two days in a row. You are not making me look good. Ian

:29:16.:29:23.

Swales, are the Lib Dems signing up to the proposed fiscal charter which

:29:24.:29:28.

would almost legally lock in continued deficit reduction? We

:29:29.:29:37.

believe the economy should be run in a way that does deal with the

:29:38.:29:43.

deficit. We will sign up to the charter as part of this government.

:29:44.:29:49.

We believe the economy needs to have Dutch lower deficits that we have

:29:50.:29:52.

got today, and you need to take tough decisions to do that. Chris is

:29:53.:29:58.

pretending they will, and that the WP secretary said they would be

:29:59.:30:01.

tougher on welfare than the Tories, but they have voted against every

:30:02.:30:05.

welfare cut being proposed in this government, so I have no idea where

:30:06.:30:09.

they are welfare. Sajid Javid, don't you have a real problem when the

:30:10.:30:17.

median wage in this country, the typical wage a worker gets, is no

:30:18.:30:22.

higher than it was in 2003? And under the OBR forecast, it does not

:30:23.:30:27.

even get to prerecession levels until after 2018. Clearly many

:30:28.:30:35.

families up and down the country are facing any key challenges, including

:30:36.:30:41.

with wages. If we are going to deal -- facing unique challenges. We have

:30:42.:30:45.

to deal with the problems. The recession was the deepest in living

:30:46.:30:53.

memory and left the country a lot poorer. Clearly there are

:30:54.:30:55.

consequences and dealing with that will take a lot of time. That is

:30:56.:31:03.

what the government is doing. It is a last 15 years, in effect, from

:31:04.:31:11.

2003. -- lost 15 years. The OBR is saying that GP will be a total of

:31:12.:31:18.

15% but wages will grow only by 7.5%. So even as the economy, by

:31:19.:31:23.

your standards, is beginning to repair itself and growth is

:31:24.:31:27.

beginning to return, the workers, people earning wages, are not

:31:28.:31:32.

sharing. Their wages will rise by half of the growth in the economy.

:31:33.:31:36.

We have a plan to deal with that. That is the evidence that was

:31:37.:31:42.

presented to Parliament yesterday. We need more graves, more jobs...

:31:43.:31:48.

This is until 2015, you have not got a plan. We have a plan that is

:31:49.:31:52.

working and if we deviate from this plan, if we abandon the

:31:53.:31:57.

government's economic plan and listen to the people it took about

:31:58.:31:59.

more spending, more borrowing, more debt, the situation would be a lot

:32:00.:32:06.

worse. I don't think anyone said you should abandon your plan. I just

:32:07.:32:11.

asked the question. He wants to abandon the plan. I am not sure he

:32:12.:32:17.

does now. Why did Ed Balls make such a Horlicks of yesterday? Plenty of

:32:18.:32:22.

conservatives would like to say that. 350 or so Conservative MPs

:32:23.:32:28.

were barracking and Jiri. I defy anybody to try to get their voice

:32:29.:32:31.

heard in that environment -- and jeering. All his posts, and utterly

:32:32.:32:39.

breathtaking complacency -- is hosts.

:32:40.:32:42.

The Chancellor is incomplete denial. For most people in our country,

:32:43.:32:52.

living standards are not rising. They are falling, year on year, on

:32:53.:32:58.

year. He used to say he would balance the books in 2015. Now he

:32:59.:33:07.

wants us to congratulate him for saying he will do it in 2019, Mr

:33:08.:33:14.

Speaker. Chris Leslie, you say that conservatives are out to say he did

:33:15.:33:18.

so badly. Can I tell you that off the record, myself and my own people

:33:19.:33:24.

have had three separate briefings from Labour aides, some of them

:33:25.:33:28.

close to Mr Miliband, essentially bad-mouthing Ed Balls. It is always

:33:29.:33:35.

off the record, isn't it? There are all sorts of people you might want

:33:36.:33:37.

to quote but until you can tell me... I am glad you played the clip.

:33:38.:33:44.

First of all, it showed Ed Balls communicating very loud and clear

:33:45.:33:48.

that this is a Chancellor who is out of touch with the cost of living

:33:49.:33:53.

crisis. He also, very loud and clear, made the point that this is a

:33:54.:33:57.

Chancellor who wants to be congratulated for failing to meet

:33:58.:34:01.

his plan to balance the books in 2015. We now have four more years of

:34:02.:34:07.

this large amount of borrowing. Remember, more borrowing in the

:34:08.:34:10.

three years since the general election than was borrowed by the

:34:11.:34:15.

previous government in the previous 13 years. They failed on their own

:34:16.:34:19.

targets and the cost of living crisis continues. We'll Ed Balls

:34:20.:34:23.

still be Shadow Chancellor this time, next year?

:34:24.:34:25.

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