Browse content similar to 17/03/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon trade blows over a new independence | :00:37. | :00:45. | |
referendum for Scotland - which of them will come out on top? | :00:46. | :00:50. | |
Hold the front page - from high-vis to hack, | :00:51. | :00:57. | |
George Osborne is the new editor of the London Evening Standard. | :00:58. | :01:01. | |
And breaking up's not always easy, so what can | :01:02. | :01:07. | |
Czechoslovakia's Velvet Divorce teach us about Brexit? | :01:08. | :01:12. | |
All that in the next hour and with us for the first | :01:13. | :01:15. | |
half of the programme - Channel Four wanted her | :01:16. | :01:18. | |
for the Great British Bakeoff, but they had to settle for that | :01:19. | :01:21. | |
So we have journalist and former press secretary to Paddy Ashdown - | :01:22. | :01:26. | |
who I think still counts herself as a Liberal Democrat - | :01:27. | :01:29. | |
First this morning, in the last hour the BBC has learned | :01:30. | :01:35. | |
that former Chancellor, George Osborne, is to be the editor | :01:36. | :01:38. | |
He is going to combine the job with the reigning as an MP, we are told. | :01:39. | :01:47. | |
He's got lots of other interests as well. | :01:48. | :01:49. | |
The man who broke the news is the BBC's media editor, | :01:50. | :01:52. | |
Why is he doing this? I think he is doing this because it's a clear | :01:53. | :02:01. | |
indication that he doesn't think that staying within Parliament and | :02:02. | :02:04. | |
staying part of Theresa May's team is going to be a fruitful few years | :02:05. | :02:09. | |
of his life. He's still very much in his prime, 45 years old. The way he | :02:10. | :02:14. | |
was dismissed from cabinet in a rather brutal fashion last summer, | :02:15. | :02:18. | |
where Theresa May briefed the line out saying if you wanted to lead the | :02:19. | :02:24. | |
Tory party he needs to better understand it from the backbenches, | :02:25. | :02:29. | |
I think it left him feeling a bit left out. How on earth he reconciles | :02:30. | :02:33. | |
this with the other jobs he's got, one being a full-time MP and another | :02:34. | :02:41. | |
with four days a rock with -- four days a month with Black Rock where | :02:42. | :02:47. | |
he gets paid ?650,000 a year which most people take a lifetime to | :02:48. | :02:51. | |
earn... There will also be a boundary change... Hold on, let's | :02:52. | :03:00. | |
undertake some of this bit by bit. In your view, is he aware of just | :03:01. | :03:05. | |
how gruelling the job of being a hands-on editor of the Standard is. | :03:06. | :03:10. | |
You have to be at your desk by six aim to me you've got several edits | :03:11. | :03:13. | |
and is to get away and by mid-afternoon when you do that | :03:14. | :03:16. | |
you've then got to get all the feature pages away for the next day. | :03:17. | :03:21. | |
It is a 12, sometimes 15 hour day. How can you do that and be an MP? | :03:22. | :03:26. | |
Andrew, you be an MP? Andrew, you been an editor, you were editor of | :03:27. | :03:33. | |
the Sunday Times and I was editor of the Independent. It is an | :03:34. | :03:37. | |
extraordinarily ruling job, I sometimes did 100 hours a week. It | :03:38. | :03:43. | |
is extraordinarily gruelling. I would sometimes be at the office at | :03:44. | :03:48. | |
five in the morning. The Standard has come down to one edition so he | :03:49. | :03:54. | |
thinks he might be free by the afternoon but it doesn't work like | :03:55. | :03:58. | |
that, you've got to go to meetings and shares starve. It's not just | :03:59. | :04:01. | |
about seeing off the pages, it's about managing a team, dealing with | :04:02. | :04:06. | |
different politicians and commercial strategy. He is paid a tonne of | :04:07. | :04:12. | |
money by Black Rock, major financial institution, where does that leave | :04:13. | :04:16. | |
the city pages of the Evening Standard? They are compromised? It | :04:17. | :04:20. | |
will be very interesting to see how George Osborne covers Black Rock and | :04:21. | :04:26. | |
the pages of the Standard as well. His former senior adviser is one of | :04:27. | :04:30. | |
the people who helped recruit him there. He has huge connections in | :04:31. | :04:33. | |
the world of asset management and also huge connections in the world | :04:34. | :04:39. | |
of Conservative politics. What I'm going to be looking closely at how | :04:40. | :04:41. | |
he covers the Conservative Party. The worst thing that could happen | :04:42. | :04:45. | |
for the Evening Standard and four George Osborne would be for him to | :04:46. | :04:49. | |
come across as a Tory lackey. For what it's worth I don't think he | :04:50. | :04:52. | |
will. I think he thinks that vengeance is a dish best served | :04:53. | :04:55. | |
through the pages of a very powerful newspaper and I think this is | :04:56. | :04:59. | |
something of a coup for the Standard. But how does he reconciles | :05:00. | :05:07. | |
it with his other jobs, we will see. It's a coup for someone who is a | :05:08. | :05:10. | |
journalist never minded politician! I'm waiting for an application to be | :05:11. | :05:16. | |
a brain surgeon! You used to work for them, what is in this for the | :05:17. | :05:23. | |
Ledvedevs, who own the Evening Standard? They get a high profile | :05:24. | :05:28. | |
and high calibre editor. You don't know he's high calibre: he has never | :05:29. | :05:32. | |
been an editor! It is an interesting and bold appointment. The Standard | :05:33. | :05:39. | |
does not have a cover price so it is very reliant on print media | :05:40. | :05:45. | |
advertising. That is a market that is disappearing to the tune of about | :05:46. | :05:49. | |
20%. What George Osborne is going to have to do is not just the editorial | :05:50. | :05:55. | |
bid but also the commercial bid, transforming that business from | :05:56. | :05:58. | |
being just a journalistic business to one that deals with events, | :05:59. | :06:02. | |
ticketing, marketing, data, all that kind of stuff that newspaper | :06:03. | :06:06. | |
companies now have to do and that is what the Ledvedevs will want him to | :06:07. | :06:11. | |
do. All right. Congratulations on breaking the story. It has surprised | :06:12. | :06:15. | |
and increased my propensity to be surprised, that is for sure. We are | :06:16. | :06:21. | |
joined now from his constituency from the Labour MP John Mann. What | :06:22. | :06:28. | |
is your reaction to his appointment as the editor of the Evening | :06:29. | :06:31. | |
Standard? Well, I would be saying good luck to him, off you go, just | :06:32. | :06:36. | |
like my colleague Tristram Hunt going off to be the director of the | :06:37. | :06:40. | |
Victoria and Albert easy for some reason. But he seems to want to stay | :06:41. | :06:44. | |
on and collect his parliamentary salary as well! It seems to me he is | :06:45. | :06:47. | |
taking the Mickey out of the taxpayer and the general public. It | :06:48. | :06:53. | |
would be unprecedented, we can't find a previous example of this, him | :06:54. | :06:58. | |
remaining a member of Parliament and of course as we were saying he has | :06:59. | :07:02. | |
got several interests as well, you don't think he can do that and be a | :07:03. | :07:06. | |
hands-on editor of the Evening Standard? You don't think he can do | :07:07. | :07:11. | |
both? He won't be taking anyone's share of work in parliament coming | :07:12. | :07:14. | |
won't be attending any committees, he won't be attending the sessions | :07:15. | :07:19. | |
inside parliament. He will turn up to the occasional vote, having not | :07:20. | :07:23. | |
heard the debate. And I think that is fundamentally wrong. It also | :07:24. | :07:28. | |
devalues our democracy because his constituents are not getting value | :07:29. | :07:31. | |
for money out of it. We all know he's going to go at the next | :07:32. | :07:35. | |
election because he has been booted out by Theresa May ignominiously and | :07:36. | :07:39. | |
the boundary commission abolishes his seat! He ought to go now, and | :07:40. | :07:44. | |
good luck to him if he goes. Tristram Hunt did the honourable | :07:45. | :07:48. | |
thing, he got a new job and he didn't pretend he could do a second | :07:49. | :07:52. | |
job as well. In George Osborne's case, this is a third job back row | :07:53. | :07:56. | |
wrecks totally an acceptable for him to still be standing. Why do you | :07:57. | :08:01. | |
think he's going to go at the next election? He may see himself and | :08:02. | :08:06. | |
many close to him do, that he is the king of the water and now the king | :08:07. | :08:10. | |
of the editor's seat in the Standard. If the whole Brexit | :08:11. | :08:14. | |
business goes wrong, he could see himself placed for a comeback in the | :08:15. | :08:19. | |
Tory party and the Standard may well provide him with a springboard to do | :08:20. | :08:23. | |
that. George told us it was all going to be disaster by now and he | :08:24. | :08:27. | |
was wrong on that. So his economic predictions have never proved to be | :08:28. | :08:33. | |
very reliable. But what's he going to be doing as an MP? I've just done | :08:34. | :08:40. | |
three surgeries and I've got another two to do today in my constituency. | :08:41. | :08:44. | |
People come to me with issues they can only go to an MP on. To give you | :08:45. | :08:49. | |
an example, the very last person I saw 20 minutes ago is the mother of | :08:50. | :08:53. | |
a British soldier murdered by the IRA in 1979 and she is angry that | :08:54. | :09:01. | |
there is no national memorial for those that were killed in Northern | :09:02. | :09:05. | |
Ireland. The only person she can go to his/her MP. Will she get any joy | :09:06. | :09:09. | |
out of me raising the issue? I've no idea. I will do so do the best of my | :09:10. | :09:15. | |
ability. If she's got nowhere else to go, George Osborne is not going | :09:16. | :09:20. | |
to be doing that kind of work, and it devalues Parliament by allowing | :09:21. | :09:25. | |
MPs to carry on in this way and Pretend, because that's what he's | :09:26. | :09:29. | |
doing, that he is being an MP, when he's not. He's doing two other jobs | :09:30. | :09:33. | |
and he shouldn't be an MP as well. OK, thank you for that. | :09:34. | :09:36. | |
We are joined in the studio by George, political commentator. Is | :09:37. | :09:48. | |
this a stepping stone to a new dimension in his political career? | :09:49. | :09:52. | |
Or is it a stepping stone out of politics and into other things? I | :09:53. | :09:56. | |
think it's a stepping stone out of politics, Andrew. Because I think | :09:57. | :10:00. | |
George Osborne didn't stand down at the same time as his friend David | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
Cameron did because he still thought he might have a route back into the | :10:06. | :10:10. | |
top of politics. Especially wanting to get his own back on Theresa May | :10:11. | :10:14. | |
four way that she got rid of him. But I think he has possibly realised | :10:15. | :10:19. | |
that's not going to happen. This is the sort of job that, if it comes | :10:20. | :10:23. | |
up, it's very difficult for someone who always wanted to be a | :10:24. | :10:30. | |
journalist, to refuse. The EU by that? Because all the information I | :10:31. | :10:34. | |
have suggests that George Osborne has been biding his time? -- do you | :10:35. | :10:40. | |
buy that? He thinks it will be a disaster, it will end in tears and | :10:41. | :10:44. | |
he will be vindicated. I think if he does want this to be a way back into | :10:45. | :10:47. | |
the very top politics, it would be the very top I imagine that he would | :10:48. | :10:51. | |
be interested in, I think he's making some serious miss calculation | :10:52. | :10:55. | |
is. For example, a few days a month on an incredibly inflated salary at | :10:56. | :11:00. | |
a financial institution doesn't go down well with the public and I | :11:01. | :11:03. | |
think the idea of running a newspaper for the capital city when | :11:04. | :11:06. | |
you are simultaneously, on the same day it was announced, today, that he | :11:07. | :11:15. | |
had the job at the Standard, he was one of the most controversial voices | :11:16. | :11:18. | |
lobbying on this issue of school funding. He cannot do both! | :11:19. | :11:27. | |
Certainly in terms of the logistics, if he wants to be a hands-on editor | :11:28. | :11:31. | |
it is very hard is the how he can be an MP, having had first-hand | :11:32. | :11:35. | |
experience of what is involved in being an editor. But what is in it | :11:36. | :11:42. | |
for the Ledvedevs? What is in it for the Russian oligarchs that owned | :11:43. | :11:48. | |
this newspaper? As they said, it is a coup for the Standard, to have | :11:49. | :11:56. | |
someone that high-calibre as the front man for the newspaper. Is he | :11:57. | :12:01. | |
going to be Dave facto and editor in chief above the fray where someone | :12:02. | :12:04. | |
else does all the hard work? That's what we're going to have to seek. | :12:05. | :12:09. | |
Because there are two ways of doing this, you can either be the front | :12:10. | :12:13. | |
person, the person who networks for the Evening Standard, presents the | :12:14. | :12:17. | |
Evening Standard on the grand stage, or you can be someone who gets | :12:18. | :12:23. | |
involved with the inky staff. He wanted to be a journalist when you | :12:24. | :12:28. | |
was a young man. He wasn't back, they didn't hire him! Coming in as | :12:29. | :12:33. | |
editor! Was he born with a silver pen in his mouth? As you possibly | :12:34. | :12:41. | |
know, he is a very entertaining and engaging person in private. | :12:42. | :12:44. | |
Absolutely. But the Evening Standard is the paper of Europe's financial | :12:45. | :12:53. | |
capital. He is being paid, what is it, ?650,000 a year by one of the | :12:54. | :12:59. | |
major financial institutions. Where does that leave the Standard's city | :13:00. | :13:03. | |
pages? I think he will have to make a choice. If he enjoys being editor | :13:04. | :13:12. | |
of the Standard then being an adviser to Black Rock and an MP will | :13:13. | :13:16. | |
have to go. Good the Ledvedevs afford to match his salary... I | :13:17. | :13:24. | |
don't think he needs that money, didn't think anyone does. Well, he | :13:25. | :13:30. | |
has taken it! Yes, but for how long. I don't think he regards Black Rock | :13:31. | :13:35. | |
is a long-term solution. Maybe he fancied being there of London. The | :13:36. | :13:39. | |
question of whether you get inky fingers or you are celebrity editor, | :13:40. | :13:42. | |
I think it is important for the standard to have that kind of | :13:43. | :13:46. | |
figurehead. The previous editor was very good because she managed to do | :13:47. | :13:51. | |
both. But she was a proper journalist. She was a proper | :13:52. | :13:56. | |
journalist and she editorially positioned the Standard very well | :13:57. | :13:59. | |
but she was also on the party pages making sure the Standard was hosting | :14:00. | :14:06. | |
all the big debates and you don't have to be a non-journalist to | :14:07. | :14:09. | |
deliver that for the Standard, I think it is a bit of an insult to | :14:10. | :14:15. | |
the profession. This is a Labour city. How would you deal with the | :14:16. | :14:26. | |
Standard? This is it has always had that problem because it is a | :14:27. | :14:30. | |
slightly conservative leaning newspaper. It had me completely by | :14:31. | :14:35. | |
surprise but game on! Me to! Thank you. | :14:36. | :14:39. | |
The war of words between the Prime Minister, Theresa May, | :14:40. | :14:45. | |
and Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, showed | :14:46. | :14:47. | |
no sign of abating today as both leaders | :14:48. | :14:49. | |
address their party's conferences this weekend. | :14:50. | :14:50. | |
The pair started trading blows after Ms Sturgeon called on Monday | :14:51. | :14:53. | |
for a second referendum on independence for Scotland to be | :14:54. | :14:55. | |
held between Autumn 2018 and Spring 2019 in light of the Brexit vote. | :14:56. | :14:58. | |
Ms Sturgeon was first to launch an attack, saying she had | :14:59. | :15:01. | |
been "met with a brick wall of intransigence" from Westminster. | :15:02. | :15:05. | |
But Theresa May was quick to retaliate, accusing the SNP | :15:06. | :15:07. | |
of "tunnel vision" and "playing politics with the future | :15:08. | :15:09. | |
After suggestions that the Prime Minister could block the referendum | :15:10. | :15:13. | |
until after the 2021 Holyrood, the First Minister shot back | :15:14. | :15:15. | |
on twitter, "I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto | :15:16. | :15:18. | |
The PM is not yet elected by anyone." | :15:19. | :15:21. | |
That didn't seem to faze Mrs May, who used an interview yesterday | :15:22. | :15:24. | |
to repeat her view that "now is not the time" for a referendum, saying, | :15:25. | :15:27. | |
"It would be unfair to Scotland," to hold one before Brexit | :15:28. | :15:32. | |
But Ms Sturgeon described the Prime Minister's attitude | :15:33. | :15:38. | |
as a "democratic outrage" and insisted that it will be | :15:39. | :15:40. | |
We're joined now from the SNP Spring Conference in Aberdeen | :15:41. | :15:48. | |
by the party's deputy leader, Angus Robertson. | :15:49. | :15:56. | |
The First Minister wants a referendum before the spring of | :15:57. | :16:04. | |
2019, when the whole Article 50 process should end, the Prime | :16:05. | :16:09. | |
Minister says no, not one until at least after the Brexit process is | :16:10. | :16:15. | |
done and dusted. What happens next? Well I think it is important to | :16:16. | :16:20. | |
unpick what that means, because the Prime Minister and this is where it | :16:21. | :16:24. | |
gets confusing, she says there shouldn't be a referendum in | :16:25. | :16:27. | |
Scotland now. Now, the time is not right. I agree with her and the | :16:28. | :16:31. | |
Scottish Government is not proposing to hold a referendum now, because | :16:32. | :16:36. | |
the negotiations are about to start. The Scottish Government has said | :16:37. | :16:39. | |
that it makes sense for people in Scotland to know the outcome of the | :16:40. | :16:44. | |
Brexit negotiations. To that extent there is not a disagreement. What | :16:45. | :16:50. | |
confuses me is the British wants to create the impression that it is OK | :16:51. | :16:55. | |
for Parliaments, the British and the European Parliaments and other | :16:56. | :16:59. | |
European governments to agree to deal on Brexit, but people in | :17:00. | :17:03. | |
Scotland will be denied that choice. What is happening is that the Tories | :17:04. | :17:10. | |
are trying to suggest that they're intransigent, but not saying they're | :17:11. | :17:14. | |
ruling o' ought referendum. -- ruling out a referendum. So it is | :17:15. | :17:18. | |
important to understand the time scales, the UK Government should be | :17:19. | :17:22. | |
able to proceed with negotiations. There is a mandate in England and | :17:23. | :17:27. | |
Wales for Brexit. I #3w But it would be unfair to deny the people in | :17:28. | :17:31. | |
Scotland a choice. There is supposed to be six months lchs s... I haven't | :17:32. | :17:38. | |
got much time. There has been some stories o' going on in London. I | :17:39. | :17:43. | |
will ask your reaction. Will I be offered a job editing the daily | :17:44. | :17:48. | |
politics. Maybe, you should see the crew we have at the moment. | :17:49. | :17:54. | |
Honestly. I still pay my membership to the national union of | :17:55. | :17:56. | |
journalists. I don't think George Osborne has ever done that. You | :17:57. | :18:00. | |
could be right. You or Nicola Sturgeon are assuming we will know | :18:01. | :18:05. | |
the nature of the Brexit deal by the autumn of 2018, but you know the way | :18:06. | :18:11. | |
Europe works, this things could go down to the wire and if we don't | :18:12. | :18:14. | |
know the nature of the Brexit deal until the very last minute, when | :18:15. | :18:21. | |
would you then have the referendum? That can't happen. It simply can't | :18:22. | :18:25. | |
happen for the reason there needs to be approval in the UK and in the EU | :18:26. | :18:31. | |
and among the member states. You're right, often things overrun in a | :18:32. | :18:35. | |
European context. But there must be a period, whether it is negotiated | :18:36. | :18:41. | |
within the two years, or whether there is some sort of extension, one | :18:42. | :18:46. | |
way or the other, there has to be a period for Parliaments to agree the | :18:47. | :18:50. | |
deal and the European institutions to agree the deal and it is a simple | :18:51. | :18:55. | |
basic democratic point if there is a period for decision-making, then not | :18:56. | :18:59. | |
only should Parliaments in Britain and Europe be able to decide on our | :19:00. | :19:02. | |
future, but voters in Scotland should be able to decide too and we | :19:03. | :19:08. | |
are democrats and think the First Minister was elected with a mandate, | :19:09. | :19:11. | |
something the Prime Minister does not have on this, that there should | :19:12. | :19:15. | |
be a referendum with a change of circumstances like Scotland being | :19:16. | :19:18. | |
taken out of the EU against our will. That is what should happen. | :19:19. | :19:24. | |
You are a democrat and you will know that the ability to call a | :19:25. | :19:27. | |
referendum is a reserved power for Westminster. If Westminster does not | :19:28. | :19:34. | |
approve that within the time scale you want, would you consider calling | :19:35. | :19:39. | |
an advisory referendum in Scotland? Well, I think the important thing to | :19:40. | :19:43. | |
bear in mind is that this is going to be decided on in the Scottish | :19:44. | :19:47. | |
Parliament next week. I think people need to understand how, I'm not sure | :19:48. | :19:51. | |
all of your viewers will understand there will be a vote in the Scottish | :19:52. | :19:54. | |
Parliament next week as to whether there should be an independence | :19:55. | :19:59. | |
referendum. I think some people don't understand how incendiary it | :20:00. | :20:05. | |
would be for a UK government to overrule Scotland's democratically | :20:06. | :20:07. | |
elected Parliament and its Government that has Hamman Tait -- | :20:08. | :20:12. | |
that has a mandate on this and the Prime Minister said now is not the | :20:13. | :20:16. | |
time for a referendum. We agree. What is the answer to my question, | :20:17. | :20:23. | |
will you call an advisory referendum? No, that is not my plan, | :20:24. | :20:32. | |
our plan is to make sure the UK Government lives up to its | :20:33. | :20:35. | |
responsibility that if we are in a union 245 that is a partnership of | :20:36. | :20:42. | |
equals, they have to respect Scotland's Parliament and if they | :20:43. | :20:45. | |
vote for a referendum and the Prime Minister wants to continue by | :20:46. | :20:49. | |
declaiming the UK is based on respect, she must respect that | :20:50. | :20:55. | |
decision. If not, the claims are shown to be empty. There was a time | :20:56. | :21:00. | |
when you and Nicola Sturgeon talked about there has to be the clear will | :21:01. | :21:04. | |
of Scottish people to have a second referendum. Now you had a second | :21:05. | :21:09. | |
referendum in your man ifesto on the the conditions you said, there will | :21:10. | :21:12. | |
probably be a majority in the Scottish Parliament. But there is no | :21:13. | :21:16. | |
evidence that it is the clear will of the Scottish people to have a | :21:17. | :21:22. | |
second referendum. Hold on a second. You're just stressing and quite | :21:23. | :21:26. | |
rightly that the Scottish Government was elected with a manifesto | :21:27. | :21:30. | |
commitment. I know UK governments think they can break these things, | :21:31. | :21:34. | |
but in Scotland it matters and our government was elected with more | :21:35. | :21:38. | |
votes than the Labour Party and the Conservative Party combined in | :21:39. | :21:41. | |
Scotland and you're suggesting that if Scotland's votes there should be | :21:42. | :21:45. | |
a referendum, that a UK Government can ignore that. I'm not suggesting | :21:46. | :21:50. | |
that, I'm asking you a question, I'm asking a question and you're tap | :21:51. | :21:53. | |
dancing around it. If you would let me finish. I would like you to | :21:54. | :22:02. | |
answer the question. This is right at the heart of matter, people in | :22:03. | :22:07. | |
Westminster need to understand if they disregard Scotland's | :22:08. | :22:10. | |
Parliament, a majority voting in favour of Scotland having a | :22:11. | :22:13. | |
referendum, and they are then going to go on to say that Scotland not | :22:14. | :22:18. | |
only cannot have a referendum now, but it must take even more years and | :22:19. | :22:23. | |
Scotland will have left the EU by then, the consequences for the | :22:24. | :22:28. | |
United Kingdom is there will not be a United Kingdom. Because the | :22:29. | :22:33. | |
fiction of respect will have exposed as being empty. Let me try again. I | :22:34. | :22:42. | |
used to talk to SNP politicians and activists and they used to say, | :22:43. | :22:47. | |
look, we need clear evidence in the opinion poms that Scotland -- polls | :22:48. | :22:52. | |
that Scotland wants another referendum. A number of of polls, | :22:53. | :23:01. | |
50% there there should not be a referendum. There is not a clear | :23:02. | :23:05. | |
will of the Scottish people as yet to have a second referendum. I'm | :23:06. | :23:13. | |
terribly sorry, Andrew, you have only read Ute from part of SNP | :23:14. | :23:18. | |
manifesto and should have. I was reading from John Curtice. If in is | :23:19. | :23:24. | |
a material change in circumstances and Scotland faces being taken out | :23:25. | :23:32. | |
of the EU against its will I'm not arguing that. I'm not talking about | :23:33. | :23:36. | |
opinion polls when the Scottish people had a vote, they voted for an | :23:37. | :23:40. | |
SNP Government on the basis of that manifesto. Not opinion polls. I'm | :23:41. | :23:46. | |
not arguing about that. In a democracy, when people are elected | :23:47. | :23:49. | |
to do that, that is what they should do. That is what the SNP plans to | :23:50. | :23:55. | |
do. Can you give us evidence that as opinion stands now in Scotland, that | :23:56. | :23:59. | |
the Scottish people want a second referendum? Where is the evidence | :24:00. | :24:02. | |
that there is a majority among the Scottish people for a second | :24:03. | :24:07. | |
referendum? As you well know, there are a range of polls, some of them | :24:08. | :24:12. | |
showing that people want a referendum now. Not one shows a | :24:13. | :24:17. | |
majority for that. Some saying they don't want a referendum at al. But | :24:18. | :24:23. | |
our political system is not based on opinion polls, but on real votes and | :24:24. | :24:28. | |
in Scotland we had a real vote and the people decided to elect a | :24:29. | :24:34. | |
Scottish Government led by the SNP with a cast iron manifesto on this | :24:35. | :24:37. | |
very issue, that is Scotland's Government at the present time. And | :24:38. | :24:42. | |
Scotland's Government intends to make a proposal a to the Scottish | :24:43. | :24:44. | |
Parliament and the Parliament is likely to vote for this. This is | :24:45. | :24:48. | |
much more important than opinion polls. Except your party used to | :24:49. | :24:54. | |
talk about opinion polls. You used to say, several leading SNP members | :24:55. | :25:01. | |
said to me, we could haven't a second referendum until there was a | :25:02. | :25:07. | |
clear 60/40 majority in the polls for having one. That is not me | :25:08. | :25:11. | |
saying that, maybe not you, but that used to be what you argued. I'm | :25:12. | :25:15. | |
saying now there is no evidence that is the case so far? No, there is | :25:16. | :25:21. | |
evidence that people faced with a prospect of Scotland being taken out | :25:22. | :25:25. | |
of the the European Union against the will of people here and it has | :25:26. | :25:32. | |
not been mentioned but 62% of voters in Scotland voted to remain in the | :25:33. | :25:39. | |
EU, in these circumstances and it was in SNP manifesto, the Scottish | :25:40. | :25:44. | |
government could proceed with people to choose. You say you understand | :25:45. | :25:49. | |
and then you question it. No, I ask a different matter and you keep | :25:50. | :25:53. | |
answering a question that I'm not asking. So I think we will both quit | :25:54. | :25:58. | |
while we are not ahead. We had better leave it there. Thank you | :25:59. | :26:03. | |
very much. Where is this going to go? At the moment, Theresa May has | :26:04. | :26:09. | |
managed to rearm the SNP. Who actually have been facing problems | :26:10. | :26:14. | |
domestically with how they have been administering the government of | :26:15. | :26:17. | |
Scotland. What is the evidence of that. There is no signs in the poll | :26:18. | :26:22. | |
Naas Brexit has been a O'O'-- that Brexit has been a game-changer in | :26:23. | :26:27. | |
Scotland. The demand for a second referendum and how they may vote, | :26:28. | :26:31. | |
Brexit has not moved the dial on that. You can't deny them their | :26:32. | :26:35. | |
excuse about it having materially changed. There is no question about | :26:36. | :26:41. | |
that. That is for if SNP. What I'm saying, there is a lot of focus | :26:42. | :26:45. | |
group work being done in Scotland and what they are finding that is | :26:46. | :26:50. | |
the prospect of endless Tory governments in Westminster, that | :26:51. | :26:55. | |
they don't like. That is a worry. But Brexit, single market, customs, | :26:56. | :26:58. | |
union, none of that has moved the dial. But this is a fantastic | :26:59. | :27:04. | |
tactical move for the SNP to distract attention back on to the | :27:05. | :27:07. | |
whole issue of process about a second referendum. Because they can | :27:08. | :27:11. | |
portray the London government blocking the will of the Scottish | :27:12. | :27:16. | |
people and just... That is something that plays very well for them. I | :27:17. | :27:19. | |
think that the thing about the SNP is they're good at strategy, but | :27:20. | :27:29. | |
they're better attack ticks. And -- better at tactics. That will help | :27:30. | :27:38. | |
them in their eventual goal. The Prime Minister has been addressing | :27:39. | :27:42. | |
the issue in Scotland. This is what she said to the Conservative spring | :27:43. | :27:45. | |
conference. We have seen that tunnel vision on display again this week. | :27:46. | :27:51. | |
The SNP argue that we should break up the UK, because we are leaving | :27:52. | :27:56. | |
the EU. But three years ago, they campaigned for a result that would | :27:57. | :28:00. | |
have taken Scotland out of the EU altogether. They're happy to see | :28:01. | :28:05. | |
power rest in Brussels, but if those powers come back to London, they | :28:06. | :28:08. | |
want them give on the Edinburgh to try and give them back to Brussels. | :28:09. | :28:19. | |
And the Conservative MSP, Murdo Fraser, joins | :28:20. | :28:21. | |
The SNP put into Nair manifesto on which they won to form a government, | :28:22. | :28:29. | |
if there was a material change there should be a second referendum, there | :28:30. | :28:33. | |
has been a material change, so they're within Nair rights to call a | :28:34. | :28:38. | |
second referendum? Well of course the SNP don't have a majority in the | :28:39. | :28:43. | |
Scottish Parliament. They went into the Scottish Parliament election | :28:44. | :28:46. | |
with a majority and they lost a majority on that manifesto you | :28:47. | :28:51. | |
mentioned. Of course, we had a vote in 2014, it is not even three years. | :28:52. | :28:55. | |
There has been a material change. We had a high turn out. Let's remember | :28:56. | :29:01. | |
in 2014 we knew there was an EU referendum in prospect and that was | :29:02. | :29:05. | |
happening. It was mentioned in the SNP's White Paper. But if we accept | :29:06. | :29:08. | |
the material change argument, the SNP do not have a majority in the | :29:09. | :29:15. | |
Scottish Parliament, they lost their majority based upon their manifesto. | :29:16. | :29:18. | |
There is a majority in the Scottish Parliament for a second referendum. | :29:19. | :29:22. | |
You say they don't have a majority, the whole system was designed not to | :29:23. | :29:27. | |
give anybody a majority, but for a period 2 SNP did. And with the Green | :29:28. | :29:33. | |
Party there is a majority in the Scottish Parliament, they're a | :29:34. | :29:35. | |
proindependence party and they talked of a change with Brexit. The | :29:36. | :29:41. | |
Scottish Parliament is within its right to call for another | :29:42. | :29:48. | |
referendum. Is it not? The six Green members were not elected on that | :29:49. | :29:51. | |
basis. Their manifesto said they would have to get a million | :29:52. | :29:56. | |
signatures on a petition before they could support another referendum. | :29:57. | :29:59. | |
But there is another point about the Scottish Parliament. I couldn't but | :30:00. | :30:04. | |
smile listening to your interview with Angus Robertson, who doesn't | :30:05. | :30:08. | |
sit in the Scottish Parliament, but you think might pay attention as | :30:09. | :30:14. | |
deputy leader of the SNP, the SNP Government in Edinburgh routinely | :30:15. | :30:18. | |
ignore and dismiss votes in the the Scottish Parliament when they lose | :30:19. | :30:22. | |
them. Just last week they lost a vote on education. Two weeks ago | :30:23. | :30:28. | |
they lost two votes. What happens to the Scottish Government when nay | :30:29. | :30:31. | |
lose votes in Scottish Parliament in they ignore them and now they have | :30:32. | :30:38. | |
the arrogance to say that the UK Government has to listen to votes in | :30:39. | :30:43. | |
the Scottish Parliament when they ignore votes. You couldn't make it | :30:44. | :30:50. | |
up. Angus Robert Robertson seems to be ignorant. Which part of SNP | :30:51. | :30:54. | |
manifesto don't you understand, we believe the Scottish Parliament | :30:55. | :30:57. | |
should have the right to hold another referendum if there is a | :30:58. | :31:01. | |
material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014. Such as | :31:02. | :31:07. | |
Scotland being taken out of the EU agains our will. | :31:08. | :31:14. | |
That is exactly what has happened! So why are you complaining... I know | :31:15. | :31:21. | |
your party has had problems delivering on your manifesto | :31:22. | :31:26. | |
recently, but they are delivering on what they promised. That is a | :31:27. | :31:31. | |
manifesto on which they fought an election which they came into with a | :31:32. | :31:33. | |
parliamentary majority and came out having lost. They got 46.5% of the | :31:34. | :31:40. | |
vote, Mr Fraser. But they did not get a majority. People in Scotland, | :31:41. | :31:46. | |
and our votes more than double, our seats more than doubled in the | :31:47. | :31:49. | |
Scottish Parliament. People in Scotland do not want another | :31:50. | :31:53. | |
referendum. It is a distraction from the important business that the SNP | :31:54. | :31:57. | |
need to be getting on with, sorting out the mess they made on the | :31:58. | :32:02. | |
Scottish economy, education, health service and justice system. That's | :32:03. | :32:05. | |
what they need to be doing. People will not take kindly to this | :32:06. | :32:09. | |
distraction. We will see how opinion goes on that stand-off over that. It | :32:10. | :32:14. | |
will be interesting to see whether the Scottish people Paul Kerr at the | :32:15. | :32:17. | |
idea of Westminster stubbing it or whether they don't care as much as | :32:18. | :32:21. | |
Mr Robinson would have us believe. But what is the Tory position? Is it | :32:22. | :32:26. | |
the timing of a second referendum that you object to or the very | :32:27. | :32:30. | |
principle of one? What Theresa May made clear yesterday that we're not | :32:31. | :32:39. | |
saying "No, not ever? -- win at saying" no, not ever" we're just | :32:40. | :32:48. | |
saying "No, not now". Between now and never, when? What we have to do | :32:49. | :32:55. | |
is have an informed decision. The people of Scotland must be able to | :32:56. | :32:58. | |
make an informed choice about their future. That means two things. | :32:59. | :33:04. | |
That's called a referendum. Understanding what Brexit means and | :33:05. | :33:08. | |
the consequences of it for Scotland. And also understanding what the | :33:09. | :33:11. | |
alternative would be. The SNP are claiming they would want a | :33:12. | :33:15. | |
referendum because they are being taken out of the EU against our | :33:16. | :33:20. | |
will, and yet in the last few days it has become entirely unclear what | :33:21. | :33:26. | |
the SNP position on EU membership is. There's suggesting that Scotland | :33:27. | :33:37. | |
would not necessarily get back into the EU. You're telling me about SNP | :33:38. | :33:44. | |
policy. I know where it isn't. I'm asking you what your policy is, | :33:45. | :33:50. | |
would you agree to a referendum once the Brexit deal is done and dusted? | :33:51. | :33:56. | |
What the Prime Minister said yesterday was that the test would be | :33:57. | :34:00. | |
that we would see the consequences of Brexit and the impact of that and | :34:01. | :34:04. | |
we would see what the SNP alternative would be and if there | :34:05. | :34:08. | |
was a demonstrable demand from the Scottish people for another | :34:09. | :34:11. | |
referendum, then at that time we would consider it, but we're not | :34:12. | :34:16. | |
going to do it before those tests. OK, Mr Fraser, thank you very much | :34:17. | :34:17. | |
for joining us. Coming up in a moment | :34:18. | :34:23. | |
it's our regular look at what's been For now it's time to say | :34:24. | :34:28. | |
goodbye to Miranda Green. So for the next half an hour, we're | :34:29. | :34:31. | |
going to be focussing on Europe. We'll be discussing what's next | :34:32. | :34:41. | |
for Brexit and the rest of the EU. First though here's our guide | :34:42. | :34:44. | |
to the latest from Europe - The Dutch Prime Minister Mark Wotte | :34:45. | :34:56. | |
celebrated victory in his country's election, easily defeating the | :34:57. | :35:02. | |
anti-immigration right wing party of Geert Wilders. Commission President | :35:03. | :35:08. | |
Jean-Claude Juncker said he was scandalised. We would never accept | :35:09. | :35:16. | |
the comparison between the Nazis and the now governments. The European | :35:17. | :35:19. | |
Court of Human Rights ruled that Hungary unlawfully kept two migrants | :35:20. | :35:28. | |
in a transit zone. It could... The Spanish Prime Minister says an | :35:29. | :35:30. | |
independent Scotland would have to join the back of the queue for EU | :35:31. | :35:36. | |
membership. Spain's membership is worried about the separatist | :35:37. | :35:41. | |
movement in Catalonia. The EU's highest court has ruled that | :35:42. | :35:44. | |
companies who ban staff from -- kanban staff who wear specific | :35:45. | :35:52. | |
religious symbols but it must be based on the company requiring all | :35:53. | :35:54. | |
employees to dress neutrally. And with us for the next 30 | :35:55. | :36:01. | |
minutes I've been joined by the UKIP MEP Gerard Batten | :36:02. | :36:04. | |
and the Conservative Let's take a look at | :36:05. | :36:06. | |
the European Court of Justice's What do you make of it? It seems to | :36:07. | :36:13. | |
break the ECJ into line with where the UK is, as far as I can work out. | :36:14. | :36:18. | |
You can't discriminate against one culture or religion, you must be | :36:19. | :36:25. | |
fair to all. Theresa May made it clear at PMQs that she disapproved | :36:26. | :36:28. | |
of the ruling, she said women had the right to choose how they dress. | :36:29. | :36:33. | |
That's not quite what the ECJ is saying. She's saying Barbu but if | :36:34. | :36:40. | |
there is to be some restriction on the front facing element then all | :36:41. | :36:47. | |
should be treated equally and fairly. First of all, we shouldn't | :36:48. | :36:50. | |
be under the restriction of the ECJ... I got that bit! Burst of all | :36:51. | :36:56. | |
it's about commission today company have a dress code? That's not an | :36:57. | :37:00. | |
unreasonable thing. This judgment is fraught with difficulties because it | :37:01. | :37:03. | |
would also mean that people can't wear Jewish skull caps, Christian | :37:04. | :37:10. | |
crosses... It is not about having a policy on headscarves but a policy | :37:11. | :37:13. | |
on face coverings so that you have the same rule for everybody whether | :37:14. | :37:17. | |
in a public building or private. Is it right, do you think, that seeks | :37:18. | :37:21. | |
would not be able to wear turbans at work? -- that Sikhs would not be | :37:22. | :37:29. | |
able to wear turbans at work? That's not what it's doing at all. It's | :37:30. | :37:35. | |
giving companies the chance to treat all its employees fairly. If it said | :37:36. | :37:40. | |
we wanted their religious symbols at all that any kind, would the Sikhs | :37:41. | :37:45. | |
then be in trouble with the turban? Because as I understand it, that is | :37:46. | :37:51. | |
a religious manifestation for Sikhs. It would have to justify why it was | :37:52. | :37:55. | |
making that statement and if it they couldn't justify it, they would not | :37:56. | :38:01. | |
be allowed to. Interesting development, we will see what the | :38:02. | :38:07. | |
national law courts make of it. They were saying that the details needed | :38:08. | :38:10. | |
to be sorted out at a national and local level. | :38:11. | :38:12. | |
Now, yesterday the bill enabling Theresa May to trigger Article 50 | :38:13. | :38:15. | |
and start the negotiations which will end with Britian's exit | :38:16. | :38:17. | |
Downing Street has said that the Prime Minister will trigger | :38:18. | :38:21. | |
Article 50 at the end of the month - so what will happen next? | :38:22. | :38:24. | |
European Council president Donald Tusk has said | :38:25. | :38:28. | |
he would need just 48 hours to respond to the UK with "draft | :38:29. | :38:31. | |
Tusk has also said an extraordinary meeting of the EU27 - | :38:32. | :38:42. | |
that's all the EU countries minus the UK - | :38:43. | :38:44. | |
will take place in April, or possibly May, where European | :38:45. | :38:47. | |
leaders will decide a guideline for the negotiating mandate. | :38:48. | :38:50. | |
Only once the mandate is agreed will the official | :38:51. | :38:53. | |
negotiations begin, probably sometime in June or July, | :38:54. | :38:56. | |
with citizen's rights and the Brexit divorce bill likely | :38:57. | :38:58. | |
Both sides need to reach an agreement by October 2018, | :38:59. | :39:12. | |
leaving enough time for the UK and European Parliaments to sign off | :39:13. | :39:16. | |
European talks often go way beyond the deadline. | :39:17. | :39:23. | |
If there's no agreement, there is a chance that the UK | :39:24. | :39:34. | |
could "crash out of the EU on world trade terms." | :39:35. | :39:36. | |
Brexit Secretary David Davis said on Wednesday that the UK | :39:37. | :39:39. | |
Government had not assessed the economic impact of such | :39:40. | :39:41. | |
Donald Tusk addressed the issue when he addressed | :39:42. | :39:44. | |
to the European Parliament on Wednesday. | :39:45. | :39:47. | |
I want to be clear that a no-deal scenario would be bad for everyone. | :39:48. | :39:52. | |
Because it would leave a number of issues unresolved. | :39:53. | :40:04. | |
We will not be intimidated by threats and I can | :40:05. | :40:07. | |
assure you they simply will not work. | :40:08. | :40:11. | |
Our goal is to have a smooth devolve and a good framework for the | :40:12. | :40:15. | |
future and it is good to know that Prime Minister Theresa May shares | :40:16. | :40:18. | |
Our use surprised, or does it matter, that the government, given | :40:19. | :40:28. | |
that it said this could be an option, that no deal would be better | :40:29. | :40:33. | |
than a bad deal, has not had a game plan for what no deal would mean? -- | :40:34. | :40:39. | |
are you surprised? Yes, considering we've done it, it's surprisingly | :40:40. | :40:43. | |
haven't done it. You talked about WTO terms and the big issue here is | :40:44. | :40:47. | |
about trade. There's no way you're going to unravel the tens of | :40:48. | :40:51. | |
thousands of EU laws before you leave but on trade they need to made | :40:52. | :40:55. | |
a simple offer, they need to have continued tariff free trade with | :40:56. | :41:03. | |
freedoms on services and capital but they cannot have people. We could | :41:04. | :41:09. | |
offer them that option and then it would be in their interests to do | :41:10. | :41:13. | |
it, because this would be a decision of the Council, by the way, when | :41:14. | :41:18. | |
they do this, and Angela Merkel would have to answer for the German | :41:19. | :41:23. | |
car-makers to say why they are not accepting a deal to do this but | :41:24. | :41:27. | |
would prefer the external tariffs brought up. It is a deal that could | :41:28. | :41:31. | |
be done in an afternoon. That is the principal but it doesn't tell us | :41:32. | :41:34. | |
what the economic consequences would be. Are you surprised the government | :41:35. | :41:39. | |
has not done this yet all is economic modelling so discredited | :41:40. | :41:42. | |
after what we said before the referendum vote that it is not worth | :41:43. | :41:48. | |
the candle? I think we are focused on the positive and constructive | :41:49. | :41:55. | |
case. Right now we must focus on getting the best deal, it will be a | :41:56. | :42:01. | |
multitrack approach to these negotiations. Some things are | :42:02. | :42:08. | |
straightforward. Michelle is going to head up the negotiations on the | :42:09. | :42:13. | |
EU side and he is saying that we need to agree the divorce build a | :42:14. | :42:17. | |
four-week talk about the post Brexit relationship between the EU and the | :42:18. | :42:22. | |
UK. The British government, particularly David Davis, are saying | :42:23. | :42:26. | |
we need to talk about both at the same time. That could be a | :42:27. | :42:30. | |
deal-breaker if the Europeans don't agree to that. The whole thing is | :42:31. | :42:32. | |
fraught with difficulties because there is a report being prepared by | :42:33. | :42:41. | |
the economic and monetary committee. They want the ECJ to have continued | :42:42. | :42:46. | |
control of jurisdiction, they want to control their tax policy. The man | :42:47. | :42:53. | |
in charge of negotiations is Mr Hofstadt, who is the most | :42:54. | :42:58. | |
enthusiastic integrationist you will find. He's not in charge! He is a | :42:59. | :43:06. | |
senior observer, is he not? On the half of the parliament. On the heart | :43:07. | :43:10. | |
of the parliament. He will have no negotiating role whatsoever. The | :43:11. | :43:14. | |
lines described here, every single one of those committees is doing | :43:15. | :43:18. | |
that. They want the hardest deal imaginable. The fairest one I've | :43:19. | :43:22. | |
read is from the Constitutional affairs committee which was actually | :43:23. | :43:25. | |
quite a fair exposition of what we are and what could happen. For | :43:26. | :43:29. | |
example, one of the things they say is that we are under no legal | :43:30. | :43:33. | |
obligation to pay any money into the budget. That was the House of Lords | :43:34. | :43:37. | |
that said that. Your other committee has said that now? The | :43:38. | :43:39. | |
constitutional affairs committee of the European Parliament. All right. | :43:40. | :43:44. | |
Do you think it would be a deal-breaker if the European stick | :43:45. | :43:47. | |
to the current plan, we need to agree the divorce bill before we | :43:48. | :43:51. | |
talk about our future relationship? As far as I'm concerned, the first | :43:52. | :43:59. | |
thing... The bottom line, if it is indeed a deal-breaker, the problem | :44:00. | :44:02. | |
is for the EU, they need the money from the UK. Money has become a | :44:03. | :44:09. | |
bigger issue now, hasn't it? The continuing programmes right now, | :44:10. | :44:12. | |
French farmers will need money, where is it going to come from if | :44:13. | :44:16. | |
not from the UK in that period? The last thing they need is the UK | :44:17. | :44:21. | |
walking away from the table. Let me ask you just briefly, do you buy | :44:22. | :44:26. | |
this rather sanguine approach that we will have, in effect, the shape | :44:27. | :44:32. | |
of the deal by the autumn of 2018. In all the summits I've covered in | :44:33. | :44:39. | |
European Union negotiations, they always go down to the wire? I think | :44:40. | :44:43. | |
we've already got it in a way because Mrs May is not going to | :44:44. | :44:46. | |
reveal a single EU law or amend one before we leave and she is going to | :44:47. | :44:51. | |
incorporate the inside body of the EU lock into British law, so what | :44:52. | :44:54. | |
changes... Do you think it could be done by the autumn of 2018? I'm just | :44:55. | :45:00. | |
talking about the timetable. Do you think it could all be done? They | :45:01. | :45:05. | |
certainly can't renegotiate every EU law by then. Do you think it could | :45:06. | :45:08. | |
be done to give time for the Scottish parliament, the British | :45:09. | :45:11. | |
Parliament, everyone else to have a say? I believe the divorce could be | :45:12. | :45:15. | |
done within that period but the other element is the trade deal | :45:16. | :45:18. | |
itself and that could take longer. I think there's no point pretending | :45:19. | :45:22. | |
otherwise. The bottom line is the divorce structure and settlement | :45:23. | :45:24. | |
cover these elements can be mapped out in a two-year period. The main | :45:25. | :45:28. | |
thing is the issues I've just described. Very well, we will see, | :45:29. | :45:30. | |
all to play for. What is the future | :45:31. | :45:34. | |
direction of Europe? Following the shock of Brexit | :45:35. | :45:35. | |
and the election of the openly hostile Donald Trump, | :45:36. | :45:39. | |
will the EU come closer together, or is the path forward one | :45:40. | :45:41. | |
of looser cooperation? MEPs in Strasbourg have been looking | :45:42. | :45:44. | |
at the five options laid out by the Commission in a White Paper, | :45:45. | :45:46. | |
as Dan Johnson has been finding out. Rome, 60 years ago when Europe's | :45:47. | :46:00. | |
future was first mapped out. Many of the original principles still guide | :46:01. | :46:05. | |
it, but this week's Europe's leaders started discussing a new direction. | :46:06. | :46:12. | |
The idea of a multispeed Europe will be one option. I understand the | :46:13. | :46:21. | |
reason for this. Some expect systemic changes that would loosen | :46:22. | :46:24. | |
ties and strengthen the role of nations. But which way to turn, how | :46:25. | :46:30. | |
best to get an agreement and are they serious about change? The | :46:31. | :46:34. | |
Brexit decision has give an push to go into this direction and finally | :46:35. | :46:38. | |
it has already reached the commission and you know some of the | :46:39. | :46:42. | |
other political groups in this House that we do need to reconsider some | :46:43. | :46:45. | |
of the things and some of the ways we have done politics in the past in | :46:46. | :46:53. | |
the European Union. Five options to be considered. Carrying on. Cutting | :46:54. | :46:57. | |
back to nothing but the single market. Already effectively ruled | :46:58. | :47:03. | |
out by the commission. Those who want to do more would allow closer | :47:04. | :47:07. | |
integration for some while others moved at their own pace. They could | :47:08. | :47:14. | |
all do less more efficiently. Or they could agree on doing much more | :47:15. | :47:19. | |
together. The leader of Parliament's second biggest group know what is he | :47:20. | :47:26. | |
wants. The best scenario is the fifth scenario, the possibility to | :47:27. | :47:35. | |
go home, to go forward together, for more European integration, the | :47:36. | :47:42. | |
majority of the people understand that we need a strong, more united | :47:43. | :47:49. | |
Europe. It happens he was previously a forensic pathologist, so that | :47:50. | :47:53. | |
begged an of course question. I don't think that Europe is a dead | :47:54. | :47:58. | |
body! Thank you doctor. There does seem to be an acceptance that Europe | :47:59. | :48:06. | |
has lost its way. So now there is a pause to look for a new way forward. | :48:07. | :48:12. | |
But everyone has to agree on the best route. That I hope to do that | :48:13. | :48:16. | |
by the end of the year. But that could be a tough ask. . Some euro | :48:17. | :48:30. | |
sceptics don't like either option. They are one option with different | :48:31. | :48:34. | |
degrees. Let's exclude the first one, that is keep everything like it | :48:35. | :48:38. | |
is and in fact we are seeing that is not working. The second one is just | :48:39. | :48:43. | |
focus on the the market. But the commission say we do not want is in. | :48:44. | :48:47. | |
The other that he are three different degrees of integration. | :48:48. | :48:51. | |
But the point is integration for what and to do what? Is this the way | :48:52. | :48:59. | |
to get people to love Europe again? I think there needs to be a bottom | :49:00. | :49:06. | |
up European movement. I think we as pro-Europeans need to go to streets | :49:07. | :49:10. | |
and say we want this, because in some many countries there has been a | :49:11. | :49:15. | |
narrative of the EU being something of the elite, being top down and we | :49:16. | :49:20. | |
need to show no this is not true. The challenge is to gather new | :49:21. | :49:24. | |
momentum and get back on track. All aboard then. Even if we don't know | :49:25. | :49:31. | |
exactly where we are heading! All except the UK of course, Britain | :49:32. | :49:36. | |
won't be along for the ride. You would have thought that the prospect | :49:37. | :49:42. | |
of Britain leaving the EU, whip is a huge historic event, whether you're | :49:43. | :49:47. | |
for or against, would have concentrated to minds to say where | :49:48. | :49:52. | |
do we go from here without Britain as the EU 27? But it seeps to me -- | :49:53. | :49:58. | |
seems to me they're as divided as ever, is that right? Yes, everyone | :49:59. | :50:06. | |
is pointing in a different direction and saying is forward. Jean-Claude | :50:07. | :50:11. | |
Juncker had the trick of multispeed Europe. That seems to be getting | :50:12. | :50:18. | |
cress dense. Credence. People like that if they're in the fast lane. In | :50:19. | :50:24. | |
the slow lane is the east European and the Nordics. So those in the | :50:25. | :50:30. | |
fast track see why it is important, those on the slow track wonder how | :50:31. | :50:34. | |
they get into the fast track. The elections, we have had the Dutch | :50:35. | :50:37. | |
election and that has produced a result which I suspect will take a | :50:38. | :50:41. | |
long while to form a government in Holland. We have the French and the | :50:42. | :50:48. | |
Germans coming up. A France run by Mr Macron and a Germany run by Mr | :50:49. | :51:05. | |
Schultes would be done from one run by marine Le Pen. Yes the most | :51:06. | :51:11. | |
sensible option would be No 2, to concentrate on tariff-free trade. | :51:12. | :51:15. | |
And then maybe you would have wanted to stay in. We want the trade but | :51:16. | :51:20. | |
not the rest of it. But they're not going do that. ?" No. Junk. | :51:21. | :51:30. | |
Jean-Claude Juncker said he would knot say, but we think it is ongs | :51:31. | :51:39. | |
five. It is option five. Emmanuel Macron is a strong European, Mr | :51:40. | :51:46. | |
Shultz is a strong European too, in Italy, four out of five of the | :51:47. | :51:50. | |
biggest parties are against euro. They haven't as yet had an election, | :51:51. | :51:55. | |
but they might. We don't know. So the east Europeans are a whole | :51:56. | :52:00. | |
different ball game too. It is quite difficult to see the way forward | :52:01. | :52:04. | |
with all these differences of opinion? The only thing that seems | :52:05. | :52:12. | |
to bring Europe together is Brexit. A lot of populist movements may not | :52:13. | :52:18. | |
win elections, but they're dragging the debate to their part. As they | :52:19. | :52:25. | |
did in Holland. So the complexion of Europe will change even if nay don't | :52:26. | :52:32. | |
win. Whatever path they take and it won't be our decision, but whatever | :52:33. | :52:37. | |
path Europe does take, is it in our interests that give than it is still | :52:38. | :52:41. | |
our biggest market by a long whey, is it in our interest that it should | :52:42. | :52:48. | |
succeed? It is in our interest it does not go into economic melt down. | :52:49. | :52:53. | |
But there is a tremendous disaster waiting which is what happens to the | :52:54. | :52:58. | |
euro. In the report of Jean-Claude Juncker, it said we have to do | :52:59. | :53:01. | |
something about the rates of youth unemployment. In the second | :53:02. | :53:07. | |
paragraph it said we must deepen union. But one of the causes of | :53:08. | :53:13. | |
problem is the European single currency. He is trying to make it | :53:14. | :53:22. | |
work with the proper banking union. The difficulty with that given the | :53:23. | :53:27. | |
Dutch election is that reforming the urp will be more difficult than | :53:28. | :53:32. | |
ever. -- euro. There is not a common prison, so there is no at common | :53:33. | :53:39. | |
solution. -- not a common problem. The 2019 European elections could | :53:40. | :53:44. | |
see more parties like Ukip being elected. You will be leaving space | :53:45. | :53:47. | |
probably. Divorces can be messy | :53:48. | :53:50. | |
and if you fall out in a big way - over the money for example - | :53:51. | :53:54. | |
it can make it very difficult So how can a messy Brexit | :53:55. | :53:56. | |
breakup be avoided? Well, our Adam's been to the former | :53:57. | :54:00. | |
Czechoslovakia to look at what can be learned | :54:01. | :54:02. | |
from the "velvet divorce." Picture the scene, | :54:03. | :54:14. | |
it is New Year's Eve 1992 and this square | :54:15. | :54:16. | |
is packed with people celebrating the | :54:17. | :54:19. | |
end of Czechoslovakia and the birth of an independent Slovak Republic | :54:20. | :54:23. | |
in a process known as the Velvet Divorce, so-called, because not | :54:24. | :54:27. | |
a single shot was fired. In Bratislava Castle, | :54:28. | :54:33. | |
evidence of where it all started - handmade signs | :54:34. | :54:36. | |
from the protests that But the public weren't | :54:37. | :54:38. | |
as involved in The main contender here | :54:39. | :54:45. | |
is the leader is the Slovak Nationalist Vladimir Meciar | :54:46. | :54:50. | |
was the victor in elections in 1992. Over an intense few weeks, | :54:51. | :54:58. | |
he negotiated a split with his counterpart in the richer | :54:59. | :55:01. | |
Czech half of the country. There was no referendum | :55:02. | :55:04. | |
and the divorce followed a simple There are ten million Czechs, | :55:05. | :55:06. | |
five million Slovaks, plus or minus, property was divided | :55:07. | :55:12. | |
two to one, military was divided similar way, | :55:13. | :55:16. | |
diplomatic service and our embassies were divided, so very peacefully | :55:17. | :55:21. | |
and we didn't have any border disputes, because we always had | :55:22. | :55:24. | |
border between Czech and Slovak Republics, so I think | :55:25. | :55:28. | |
there were no major fights. Since then, Slovakia has joined | :55:29. | :55:36. | |
the EU and flourished. Iveta Radicova is a member | :55:37. | :55:38. | |
of the former Prime She says the split was undemocratic, | :55:39. | :55:44. | |
left her country briefly bankrupt Some things were really solved ten | :55:45. | :55:50. | |
years later, not immediately. All institutions of | :55:51. | :55:57. | |
controlling mechanisms. For the the next generation | :55:58. | :56:15. | |
of politicians like the Economy Minister, | :56:16. | :56:22. | |
it is all ancient history. I think we are a bit | :56:23. | :56:24. | |
Czech Republic in best partnership with other | :56:25. | :56:30. | |
neighbour countries. I'm not the only | :56:31. | :56:35. | |
visitor from the UK. The Brexit Secretary | :56:36. | :56:40. | |
David Davies was in Could he have spied any | :56:41. | :56:42. | |
lessons for the UK's upcoming I don't think ill it | :56:43. | :56:46. | |
will be over in one or The key is to maintain good | :56:47. | :56:54. | |
will and maintain good relationship where you are, | :56:55. | :56:58. | |
not playing game and tricks. It is a triumph of | :56:59. | :57:04. | |
nationalism and not much else as the two republics | :57:05. | :57:06. | |
go their separate ways. Watching another famous | :57:07. | :57:10. | |
correspondent who stood on this spot, the lesson I have learned | :57:11. | :57:11. | |
is separating seems massive at the time, but living apart lasts | :57:12. | :57:15. | |
for much, much longer. During the Scottish referendum I did | :57:16. | :57:32. | |
a documentary about breaking up and looked at the velvet divorce. | :57:33. | :57:37. | |
Although it involved two small country, there were score o's of | :57:38. | :57:42. | |
treaties. The lesson is if you made the decision to go, go and sort the | :57:43. | :57:48. | |
details out. Try and sort out the details before you won't end up | :57:49. | :57:54. | |
going. But the British government's position, it may not be acceptable | :57:55. | :57:59. | |
to the British people, before we go, we want to see what it means. There | :58:00. | :58:03. | |
are some things we can untangle quickly, other involve us building | :58:04. | :58:08. | |
something afresh. So we have a new relationship and a severing of the | :58:09. | :58:14. | |
old. We can do that if we both enter the discussion in the right frame of | :58:15. | :58:18. | |
mind kneeing harming one side -- knowing harming one side harms the | :58:19. | :58:26. | |
other. Can you do it without there being a victor? The rest can be | :58:27. | :58:32. | |
sorted it won't be difficult. The immigration is the next biggest | :58:33. | :58:37. | |
problem. It can be done, but you have to be focussed on the outcome | :58:38. | :58:41. | |
and that is a good deal for both sides that. What is the people of | :58:42. | :58:43. | |
Europe want. We shall see. Thanks to Gerard Batten | :58:44. | :58:48. | |
and Ian Duncan. I hope you join me for the next one. | :58:49. | :58:57. | |
Goodbye. | :58:58. | :59:00. |