Browse content similar to Tim Montgomerie - British Conservative blogger and commentator. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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when he disappeared. Time for These are anxious times for British | :00:12. | :00:16. | |
Conservatives. A stiff dose of Tory austerity has not yet lifted the UK | :00:16. | :00:20. | |
economy off its sickbed. The Conservative party is behind Labour | :00:20. | :00:23. | |
in the polls, and perhaps most worryingly, two years into David | :00:23. | :00:26. | |
Cameron's premiership, Tories still seem undecided about the party's | :00:26. | :00:32. | |
strategic direction. HARDtalk speaks to Tim Montgomerie, founder | :00:32. | :00:37. | |
of the website ConservativeHome.com. He is a key player in the soul | :00:37. | :00:41. | |
searching on the political right. What makes for a winning brand of | :00:41. | :00:51. | |
:00:51. | :01:26. | ||
Tim Montgomerie, welcome. Far from turning cartwheels of job, he's | :01:26. | :01:32. | |
seen overwhelmed by a sense of foreboding. Why? For a couple of | :01:32. | :01:42. | |
:01:42. | :01:42. | ||
reasons. This is not the government Conservatives have waited for. The | :01:42. | :01:48. | |
last time we won a majority was 1992. We had been out of power for | :01:48. | :01:57. | |
a longer. In our history. The compromises of the coalition are | :01:57. | :02:04. | |
one reason. The second reason is we cannot say a plan to change that. | :02:04. | :02:14. | |
To win the next election, to address the fact the Conservative | :02:14. | :02:19. | |
government has struggled to win the popular vote. He had David Cameron | :02:19. | :02:24. | |
enpower and George Osborne running the Treasury. You have Tory | :02:24. | :02:28. | |
philosophy behind the key economic planks of policy making in this | :02:28. | :02:33. | |
government and yet you say and you have written about it extensively, | :02:33. | :02:38. | |
you wonder if the Tories would ever again win an outright majority. It | :02:38. | :02:42. | |
makes us sound like you believe what the Tories are doing is | :02:42. | :02:44. | |
hindering their long-term objectives of the Conservative | :02:44. | :02:49. | |
Party. To be clear, some of the things this government is doing is | :02:49. | :02:54. | |
incredibly important and I support wholeheartedly. The deficit | :02:54. | :02:59. | |
reduction programme is not a programme of tries, it is of | :02:59. | :03:04. | |
necessity. In the early years when the economy was still strong, he | :03:04. | :03:07. | |
wanted to share the proceeds of growth between higher public | :03:07. | :03:15. | |
spending and tax cuts. It is not an anti-state Conservative Party. The | :03:15. | :03:19. | |
reforms the Iain Duncan Smith is making for a double first day, the | :03:19. | :03:29. | |
:03:29. | :03:30. | ||
reforms of schools, there are great. But Margaret Thatcher could not | :03:30. | :03:36. | |
increase the share of a bird that she won after 1979. Tony Blair | :03:36. | :03:41. | |
could not win the share of popular vote he won after he was elected. | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
If David Cameron is able to increase his share of the vote, it | :03:45. | :03:50. | |
will be an extraordinary achievement. Those of us to worry | :03:50. | :03:54. | |
about achieving a Conservative governments are looking for the | :03:54. | :03:58. | |
game changes. We do not think this is enough to be an average | :03:58. | :04:01. | |
Government with an average of re- election plan. It need something | :04:02. | :04:06. | |
special. Would you have on your website ConservativeHome.com has | :04:07. | :04:12. | |
become one of the go to places for political discussion in the UK, | :04:12. | :04:17. | |
especially for Conservative Party members. When you have there is one | :04:17. | :04:26. | |
Lower go card soon which comes with the words, at David Cameron wrong | :04:26. | :04:35. | |
or modernisation. Where has he gone wrong? I am someone who does not | :04:35. | :04:40. | |
think the Conservative Party is in the right place. I do not think it | :04:40. | :04:46. | |
is enough to go back to where the word. Where has it Cameron got it | :04:46. | :04:52. | |
wrong? He made a lot of good decisions focusing on the health... | :04:52. | :04:56. | |
I want to know where he got it wrong. The strategic mistake he | :04:56. | :05:01. | |
made early in his leadership was he thought the Conservative Party was | :05:01. | :05:05. | |
to right wing. By that he meant we talked to much about Europe, we | :05:05. | :05:09. | |
were to focus on issues like crime and immigration. There is no | :05:09. | :05:15. | |
evidence that has ever worried the British people. 80% of the British | :05:15. | :05:19. | |
people a grave with us on those topics. The problem with the | :05:19. | :05:23. | |
Conservative Party has been since Margaret Thatcher's day. Not a | :05:23. | :05:28. | |
we're too right wing but that we do not balance that with a concern for | :05:28. | :05:34. | |
blue-collar workers, drivers. We are not committed enough to the | :05:34. | :05:43. | |
public services. The challenge for the Conservative Party is not to | :05:43. | :05:49. | |
stop talking about but is familiar with us. It is about having an | :05:49. | :05:57. | |
agenda. We will still be there with the safety net, we will still | :05:57. | :06:05. | |
believe in the NHS. Everything You mentioned about marrying populist | :06:05. | :06:10. | |
traditional issues with a belief the Tories will maintain a strong | :06:10. | :06:16. | |
state, comes back to this word state. You said early in this | :06:16. | :06:19. | |
conversation that he did not seek Cameron as an anti-state person. | :06:19. | :06:24. | |
But look at the reality. What David Cameron and George Osborne are | :06:24. | :06:28. | |
doing is imposing a prolonged period of austerity which in the | :06:28. | :06:33. | |
end was take Britain, in terms of the proportions of project and | :06:33. | :06:43. | |
:06:43. | :06:44. | ||
spending that comes from the government, taking a Bono or our | :06:44. | :06:50. | |
European partners and the US, possibly. It is about living within | :06:50. | :06:55. | |
our means. We are spending far too much money compared to the tax | :06:55. | :06:59. | |
revenue that we are bringing in. We are borrowing over �100 billion | :06:59. | :07:06. | |
this year. That is unaffordable. If they deliver all of the savings | :07:06. | :07:14. | |
they have promised, the size of the state will be as big as it was in | :07:14. | :07:18. | |
2004 under does state minimalist called Gordon Brown and Tony Blair. | :07:18. | :07:24. | |
This is not a radical agenda. It is quite simply about Good | :07:24. | :07:28. | |
Housekeeping and ensuring that my's generation dinner have to repay the | :07:28. | :07:33. | |
debts we have imposed to look beyond our means. Most British | :07:33. | :07:40. | |
people understand the cuts are not endangering an H S, or the public | :07:40. | :07:47. | |
services, they are the only way of saving them. Having looked at a | :07:47. | :07:52. | |
series of charts reproduced by the IMF and the Guardian newspaper arm. | :07:52. | :07:58. | |
A reporter looked at those figures, he said, if George Osborne gets his | :07:58. | :08:02. | |
way in the next five years, Britain will have a smaller public sector | :08:02. | :08:08. | |
than any other major developed nation. That conclusion is based on | :08:08. | :08:17. | |
IMF figures. Is that what the British public wants? What the | :08:17. | :08:21. | |
British public wants is for a nation to live within its means and | :08:21. | :08:29. | |
not to be in a situation like Spain and Greece. That is the absolute | :08:29. | :08:33. | |
emergency situation we have to address. What they want from the | :08:33. | :08:38. | |
Conservative Party is not an anti- state party. We often give the | :08:38. | :08:44. | |
impression we are against the state. That is dangerous. Margaret | :08:44. | :08:49. | |
Thatcher, David Cameron, John Major based spent a lot of taxpayers' | :08:49. | :08:54. | |
money. We should be proud that we have a health service that trees | :08:54. | :08:59. | |
people regardless of their needs. We should be proud week had a good | :08:59. | :09:05. | |
pension. We should be proud of that our people are looked after. That | :09:05. | :09:09. | |
is not the situation at the moment. The situation at the moment is that | :09:09. | :09:13. | |
many people who should be looking after themselves and their families | :09:13. | :09:18. | |
have state benefits. During Gordon Brown's years, when the economy was | :09:18. | :09:25. | |
strong, dependency was increased recklessly. Cutting back on Sark is | :09:25. | :09:30. | |
this government's project. Not leaving the vulnerable to write | :09:30. | :09:35. | |
Lene public services are on their own. Do you think it is right for | :09:35. | :09:45. | |
conservatives to aim for a state which is smaller in the future then | :09:45. | :09:50. | |
of the US? With all the indications that carries for what the State | :09:50. | :09:55. | |
does for citizens. I am not in favour of artificial target. | :09:55. | :10:00. | |
Forecasts are being proven wrong on a six-monthly basis. We don't know | :10:00. | :10:07. | |
where will be from six-12 months. In a few defend the nature and the | :10:07. | :10:11. | |
steep curve of austerity cuts that George Osborne has imposed, how | :10:11. | :10:17. | |
does that match a desire to win over the blue-collar conservatives | :10:17. | :10:27. | |
:10:27. | :10:28. | ||
that you believe are out there? For example, if they seek, in the words | :10:29. | :10:34. | |
of a leading disabled advocate, that families will be worse off | :10:34. | :10:39. | |
under the reforms of the credit system, when they hear that, how we | :10:39. | :10:43. | |
are convinced them that the Tory party is the party for those who | :10:43. | :10:52. | |
are less well off, the less easily finding work in Britain today? | :10:52. | :10:55. | |
British people think of the welfare state should be there for people | :10:55. | :11:00. | |
who are genuinely in need. The top of the list for most people's | :11:00. | :11:04. | |
criteria are people with disabilities. People are cannot | :11:04. | :11:14. | |
look after themselves or who need help. That is not what we have with | :11:14. | :11:24. | |
:11:24. | :11:25. | ||
the well for a stay at the moment. -- welfare state. There are huge | :11:25. | :11:29. | |
proportions of people who should be out there in the market place, | :11:29. | :11:39. | |
:11:39. | :11:42. | ||
looking after themselves. There have been accusations of some | :11:42. | :11:49. | |
people being malingerers. People who endanger the safety net of | :11:49. | :11:54. | |
those who are taking benefits they are not entitled to. We were only | :11:54. | :11:58. | |
ensure public confidence in double for a state, which I saw it -- for | :11:59. | :12:02. | |
the support, if we have gone through all the legitimate task to | :12:02. | :12:07. | |
ensure those to are getting money from taxpayers, the blue-collar | :12:07. | :12:10. | |
workers, who worked incredibly hard and who have to watch very | :12:10. | :12:14. | |
carefully at the beginning of the mud rather than the end of the | :12:14. | :12:19. | |
month, they need to know they have a government that is looking after | :12:19. | :12:24. | |
their tax pounds and that those tax plans are going to people genuinely | :12:24. | :12:28. | |
in need. That is what the government is doing. They would not | :12:28. | :12:33. | |
get it right every time. It is your contention that you can have this | :12:33. | :12:41. | |
compassionate conservatism with a pro active state and you can still | :12:41. | :12:51. | |
stick to the fiscal hawkish stance that George Osborne has adopted. | :12:51. | :12:55. | |
The government are very keen to look at how to break up the link | :12:55. | :13:00. | |
between benefits and inflation. They believe it has to be done to | :13:00. | :13:05. | |
save more money. That has been described by the head of Child | :13:05. | :13:10. | |
Poverty Action Group as breaking a basic link with decency. Where do | :13:10. | :13:17. | |
you sit on that argument? I will come back to that question. Part of | :13:17. | :13:21. | |
the problem we have at the moment is that the generosity of the | :13:21. | :13:26. | |
society is measured only in terms of how much the state spent. It is | :13:26. | :13:30. | |
the nature of your question, it is the nature of Child Poverty Action | :13:30. | :13:35. | |
Group's agenda. The most radical thing that Conservatives need to do, | :13:35. | :13:42. | |
which is insured with most people, is to say the basis of a | :13:42. | :13:45. | |
compassionate society is not how much the government spares but | :13:45. | :13:50. | |
ensuring how strong families and every person has a good education | :13:50. | :13:56. | |
and getting people into work. Our most important compassionate act is | :13:56. | :14:00. | |
not the state bureaucrat, they are parents, teachers and job creators. | :14:00. | :14:06. | |
That is what we must focus on. And why the government has to squeeze | :14:06. | :14:10. | |
benefits at the moment is because everyone in work is having their | :14:10. | :14:14. | |
pay frozen or cut at the moment. It is very hard for people to meet | :14:14. | :14:24. | |
:14:24. | :14:28. | ||
fence. -- maker and need. They are difficult decisions. I will pursue | :14:28. | :14:36. | |
for a straight answer. We have to ensure the premiums that people get | :14:36. | :14:43. | |
and the work that they do. What is the signal that East Stand at? Do | :14:43. | :14:48. | |
you believe that they should no longer be inflation-proofing of | :14:48. | :14:54. | |
benefits? Yes or Inu? Not all benefits. Pensioners have restored | :14:54. | :15:00. | |
the link between pensions and average earnings. That is less than | :15:00. | :15:07. | |
inflation. The generosity of his government to certain classes of | :15:07. | :15:11. | |
benefit claimants is greater than the last Labour government. I am | :15:11. | :15:19. | |
proud of that. There are certain classes, particularly those who | :15:19. | :15:24. | |
live alongside someone who is going out to work for potentially at | :15:24. | :15:28. | |
almost very little rewards compared to the person on benefits. That | :15:28. | :15:33. | |
person should... That is a complicated answer for a simple | :15:33. | :15:43. | |
Do you think the British public want a relationship between the | :15:43. | :15:47. | |
citizen and the state, that it feels more like the relationship | :15:47. | :15:52. | |
that we see in France and Germany, or the relationship that we see in | :15:52. | :16:01. | |
the United States? I think the US as a welfare state for its | :16:01. | :16:07. | |
provision for people in need is greater than in Europe. Really? How | :16:07. | :16:13. | |
much time had be spent in America? Quite a bit of time. Some of these | :16:13. | :16:16. | |
systems but that is directed towards families is greater than | :16:16. | :16:26. | |
those in Europe. A lot of the American system is hidden, not just | :16:26. | :16:31. | |
at federal level, but at state level and the local level as well. | :16:31. | :16:36. | |
It is quite misunderstood. As a blue-collar conservative, if you | :16:36. | :16:42. | |
had a vote in the forthcoming US presidential election, would you be | :16:42. | :16:45. | |
casting their vote for President Obama or for the natural ally of | :16:45. | :16:55. | |
:16:55. | :16:56. | ||
the Conservative Party, Mitt Romney? Meet Romney. Would you? The | :16:56. | :17:00. | |
clear majority of Conservatives today seem to back Obama over Mitt | :17:00. | :17:05. | |
Romney, and seemed to be saying to themselves and the British people, | :17:05. | :17:11. | |
we are not like Mitt Romney, who has a very dramatic, fiscally it | :17:11. | :17:14. | |
hawkish view of slimming down expenditure. Most British | :17:14. | :17:19. | |
Conservatives seem to say that they are not like that. I need to | :17:19. | :17:23. | |
challenge the basis of your question. You seem to be suggesting | :17:23. | :17:28. | |
that those people who want to cut the deficit are somehow the harsh | :17:28. | :17:32. | |
people, and the people who want to keep on spending are the capacity | :17:32. | :17:40. | |
at people. -- the compassionate. The people who did not want to | :17:40. | :17:45. | |
bring the deficit under control, they are the people who will leave | :17:45. | :17:49. | |
the country would deficit that will have to serve this for years to | :17:49. | :17:54. | |
come. Interest payments, that is money that cannot be spent on | :17:54. | :18:01. | |
hospitals, schools, the police service. Mitt Romney, George | :18:01. | :18:05. | |
Osborne, David Cameron, we are not cutting because we somehow take a | :18:06. | :18:09. | |
delight in having to make reductions, we are making these | :18:09. | :18:14. | |
cuts in order to put the public finances in order, so we can | :18:14. | :18:23. | |
protect and sustain services that need protecting. I find you take on | :18:23. | :18:30. | |
one of the key issues, the size of the state, very interesting. Let's | :18:30. | :18:33. | |
talk about who is delivering the policy. And maybe here the | :18:33. | :18:39. | |
Conservatives had a problem. You have commented on the look and the | :18:39. | :18:43. | |
sound of the leadership of the Conservative Party. It is dominated | :18:43. | :18:48. | |
by people who either went to very posh public schools or to Oxbridge. | :18:48. | :18:54. | |
Are they the right people and to be reaching out to the blue-collar | :18:54. | :19:00. | |
Conservatives who you say are the key to the Party's future? Going | :19:00. | :19:04. | |
back to our American parallel, you would not have a governor and a | :19:05. | :19:12. | |
senator from Massachusetts, running for US Office, for the top ticket, | :19:12. | :19:16. | |
you would have someone from a Southern state, someone from the | :19:16. | :19:23. | |
Midwest. You would have balance to the ticket. There is something in | :19:23. | :19:26. | |
the Conservative Party have been George Osborne and David Cameron as | :19:26. | :19:32. | |
the two leading paces -- faces. It is not the party of John Major in | :19:32. | :19:41. | |
1992. There was something special about what the Conservative Party | :19:41. | :19:50. | |
had, in a leader who had gone from the wrong side of the tracks. I | :19:50. | :19:54. | |
think it is harder, but if you look at the Mayor of London, another | :19:54. | :19:59. | |
order Etonian, he has that sort of privileged background, and yet he | :19:59. | :20:03. | |
has prospered in a city which traditionally votes Labour. He has | :20:03. | :20:09. | |
won an election twice, in the middle of an austerity period. It | :20:09. | :20:14. | |
is not impossible for somebody of a certain background to convince | :20:14. | :20:19. | |
blue-collar Britain that they are on their side. It is interesting | :20:19. | :20:24. | |
that you bring Boris Johnson into the conversation. You had said not | :20:24. | :20:30. | |
long ago, if the choice is between David Cameron and Boris Johnson, | :20:30. | :20:36. | |
the debate may looked irresistible. Is that where you stand, that for | :20:36. | :20:44. | |
his best efforts, David Cameron is doomed? Do you think that Boris | :20:44. | :20:49. | |
Johnson will have to be brought in at some point? This is the danger | :20:49. | :20:58. | |
of writing hypothetical situations. My whole premise was the idea that | :20:58. | :21:03. | |
David Cameron ends up being a catastrophic leader. We did not | :21:03. | :21:09. | |
have to stretch too hard to imagine it coming true. My honest view is | :21:09. | :21:13. | |
that we will struggle to win the next election but that David | :21:13. | :21:16. | |
Cameron will be competitive. So he will not face a leadership | :21:16. | :21:23. | |
challenge. I think his speech at the leadership conference was the | :21:23. | :21:29. | |
best he has given as the leader. If he can keep going on that, he may | :21:29. | :21:34. | |
well have a chance at the next election. If he wants to reach out | :21:34. | :21:38. | |
to the strivers, and make good on the aspiration nation vision that | :21:38. | :21:44. | |
he has painted, does he need to jettison some of the damaging | :21:44. | :21:50. | |
baggage around him? I'm thinking of the position of his chief whip, | :21:50. | :21:55. | |
Andrew Mitchell, who is accused by policemen of having caught there | :21:55. | :22:01. | |
are word that I cannot use, and then plebs. He denies it. They said | :22:01. | :22:08. | |
that he absolutely said it. It raises questions about his truth- | :22:08. | :22:14. | |
telling, his relationship with the police. Should he resign? I think | :22:14. | :22:18. | |
what happened at the Downing Street gates are disputed. He certainly | :22:18. | :22:25. | |
acknowledges that he spoke... he has apologised to the police | :22:25. | :22:32. | |
officer in question. Although it is an accusation, it is going to hang | :22:32. | :22:37. | |
over the Conservative Party, and I come back to it, the party that can | :22:37. | :22:42. | |
only win if it reaches out to the blue-collar people. The parts that | :22:42. | :22:49. | |
are far away from London. Andrew Mitchell episode is not | :22:49. | :22:53. | |
helpful, I am not going to deny that. But I do not think it is | :22:53. | :22:57. | |
going to determine the next election. It will not be a | :22:57. | :23:02. | |
referendum, it will be a choice, they will look at the Labour Party | :23:02. | :23:06. | |
and they will say, who is fixing the deficit, who is keeping my tax | :23:06. | :23:11. | |
bill under control, who is controlling our borders, those are | :23:11. | :23:16. | |
the issues that would determine the next election. In comparison, I | :23:16. | :23:19. | |
think David Cameron will stand in very good comparison with Ed | :23:20. | :23:25. | |
Miliband. But the Andrew Mitchell Abersoch is not helpful. One other | :23:25. | :23:31. | |
specific that you refer to quite a lot, in the website and in your | :23:31. | :23:38. | |
speaking, is Europe. You seem to believe, that it is common ground | :23:38. | :23:43. | |
in Britain to want to actively consider exiting the European Union. | :23:43. | :23:47. | |
Are you sure that would be a wise direction for the Conservative | :23:47. | :23:55. | |
Party to take? Europe is one of those issues that is often painted | :23:55. | :24:01. | |
in the media as a right-wing issue. That actually, it is the common | :24:01. | :24:07. |