Jawed Ludin - Deputy foreign minister, Afghanistan HARDtalk


Jawed Ludin - Deputy foreign minister, Afghanistan

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year-old Cuban revolutionary leader. Two years from now, the last NATO

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combat troops in Afghanistan will be preparing to leave. Is that

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something Afghans look forward to with confidence or a sense of

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dread? The challenge isn't just about security, but the country's

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political and economic future is also at stake. My guest today is

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the Deputy Foreign Minister of Afghanistan, Jawed Ludin. Does his

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government have a coherent strategy for delivering a stable, peaceful

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Jawed Ludin, welcome to HARDtalk. Thank you. It's a pleasure to be

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with you. Are you aware of the intensity of the apprehension in

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Western capitals, as policy makers consider what is going to happen in

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your country as the transition continues and the NATO combat

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mission in Afghanistan comes to an end in 2014? Are you feeling that

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level of apprehension? absolutely do. It is as the deputy

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-- as the deputy Foreign Minister, it is part of my job to see what is

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happening and how people perceive Afghanistan. I travel quite a lot.

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What I can say on that account is that the transition is not in any

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way negative. The fact we are taking responsibility, that

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international troops will leave Afghanistan, is essentially the

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biggest strategic success we have achieved in the last ten years. The

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important things those people in the Western capitals should note is

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that so much has been achieved in the last ten years, including the

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fact that today there is a transition that is possible and

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Afghan security forces will take responsibility and that will allow

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international forces to lead. Continuation of this effort is

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important. -- forces to leave. Just by being responsible for defence

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and security of our country does not mean Afghanistan will not need

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continued support and partnership from the rest of the world.

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talk about the positives of the transition. I wonder, in the last

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few days, had he made time to read the International Crisis Group's

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report? They call it the long hard road to the 2014 transition. They

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say after 2014, there is, I am quoting, the real risk the regime

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in Kabul could collapse. I am quite unhappy about that report. I

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respect them quite a lot and they have done good work in the past but

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they have also done some very superficial, uninformed and perhaps

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ill-informed work. This particular report is one of those

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unfortunately low quality work. It does not really understand the

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depth of the transition. And it draws the absolutely worst possible

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conclusions. One could always speculate about all the things that

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could go wrong, rather than all of the things that are going in the

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right direction and could go better than expected. But in respect, it

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is not just one report. I could point U2 others. I suspect you read

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-- you read this one as well. One very highly respected decision-

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maker, one Republican, one Democrat. They are looking at the future of

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the country and they say the Afghan government is deeply flawed and

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should the world stop compensate him for its deficiencies it is in

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danger of imploding. Again, everybody who comes here can draw a

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conclusion and is totally entitled to that. I am not going to draw

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that conclusion and I will stick to my conclusion, to say that I, as an

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Afghan, have got this historical opportunity that did not exist ten

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years ago. We have made, in the last ten years, progress that has

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never been made in the history of Afghanistan before. These people,

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with absolute respect, I invite them to meet with the after a neat

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young people that I hear. 75% of this country is now under 25. Those

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people are not prepared to go back and will not allow it to slip back.

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We need some help. As I said, I tremendously respect this work but

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there is so much else that I could 0.2 and I think other people... I

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suggest you will other speak to. They would point to the good things

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happening. And these scenarios are the negative ones. We will get to

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the detail of what is going on in a minute. But it is just a question

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of being honest about what is actually happening in Afghanistan

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today. Your government relief to statement after the International

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crisis report, describing it as garbage and nonsense. One of your

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Independent Newspapers had an editorial a few days ago, saying

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the report actually gets much right. The government's denial, you'll

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government's denial, of the report is ridiculous and an embarrassment.

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Even Afghans themselves are sympathetic to the idea that there

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is right now in your country a fundamental question about whether,

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when NATO combat forces to withdraw, the country can hang together and

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can be stable. Wide and I hasten to say something, to recognise that

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challenges exist. A lot of the substance these people, the reports,

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0.2 do exist. They are factual. Basically, I am disputing their

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analysis. -- point to. They exist alongside other facts. And they are

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not necessarily negative. 2014 is a difficult and challenging time and

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we need to be prepared and have a strategy, and we do. The problem

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with the strategy is not that there is not a strategy but there are

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some elements of the strategy that are unknown. Whether the

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international community's commitment will remain strong,

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whether we will be able to get a peace process working with help

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from Pakistan, that is a big unknown. Whether some of the other

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elements will come together. But those elements could really go...

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These people suggest they will go in a negative direction but I think

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they will go in a positive direction. We have also seen some

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positives. Leads an picket theme by theme, issue by issue, challenge by

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a challenge. -- led us and pick it. Starting with security. When NATO

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troops complete the transition, 350,000 members of your own

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security forces will alter that we'd be responsible for ensuring

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the security of the citizens of your country. -- ultimately be

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responsible. It does not engender much confidence, when we see the

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dramatic rise, this year for example, in the so-called Green on

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blue attacks. The lack of a reliable, a disciplined, armed

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force which has led to the killings of so many NATO troops by your own

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forces. That has undermined confidence in the West, no doubt

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about it. Security... Security has actually, in some respects,

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deteriorated... Apart from the green on blue that he referred to,

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there are some other deeply discomforting friends we are seeing.

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An increase in suicide bombing in the last couple of years. The use

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of other tactics that target urban environments and basically grab a

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lot of media attention. That is another tactic. But fundamentally,

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the facts have not gone badly. They have gone in the right direction.

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In the south of Afghanistan, before the surge of the US forces took

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place, there were large strongholds of the Taliban. In Helmand province,

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where British troops still operate, most of that area was inaccessible

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to us, as Afghan officials. Today, Helmand province is moving on.

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There are some challenges but it has changed totally beyond

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recognition. The same has happened in Kandahar. But the green on Blue

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is also another mutation of the terrorist tactics. It's a rather

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sinister one and a difficult one. We totally recognise this could

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even be at the heart of this partnership between the Afghan

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security forces and NATO allies. That is why we have tried to

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address it aggressively and we are working together. You might have

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heard in recent weeks that there is some progress in terms of the

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measures we both have taken and hopefully these will be tackled.

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But this is not, as some have suggested, representing an

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unbridgeable cultural divide that people put this down to. Hang on. I

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appreciate the front this with which you say that in some ways the

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security situation is deteriorating. I wonder, as you make the

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preparations for 2014, how on earth you can convince your own Afghan

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citizens that their security is going to be in safe hands? For

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example, if one looks at the equipment your armed forces have,

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the lack of logistics, the lack of air transport, the lack of

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firepower, frankly, to safeguard your borders, giving you allege

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continued terrorist infiltration from the Pakistani border, given

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that this is all going to be your responsibility in 2014, how can you

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convince the people that Afghanistan will be secured?

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will need continued help to build these institutions further. But

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what I can tell you is that what we have today, in terms of our army

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and our police, and if you look at the nature of the threat that

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exists against Afghanistan, I can say for sure of that there will be

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able to take responsibility and the Afghan forces will secured the

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country. -- that we will be able to. The forces will do one important

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thing, that is to give a very deep sense of responsibility to the

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Afghan government and Afghan forces. The threat we have in this region,

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we do not face a frontal war with - - that these people can't tackle.

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We face the threat of infiltration. One thing we are doing to make

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transition sustainable is we are working to Pakistan's -- working

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with Pakistan to see if we can bring the Taliban to a peace

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process. Sorry to interrupt but let me be due upon that immediately.

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Are you talking to the Taliban right now? Is the Afghan government

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in negotiation with the Taliban? have contacts. But there is not a

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coherent process that involves direct negotiation about

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Afghanistan's future and the Taliban's political involvement in

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the peace process. That is yet to come. Pursuing this, there is a

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fundamental problem. Taliban leaders have made a claim not least

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to academics from a think tank who they spoke to in the summer, they

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said they would not conduct direct negotiations with the government

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led by Hamid Karzai. They describe him as utterly corrupt and week.

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They will talk to Afghan officials but they will not talk direct to

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Hamid Karzai and his government. That is a fundamental problem?

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can tell you that there are people who talk to us. The problem is that

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those people face a very sinister type of challenge, that is that

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they do not feel comfortable. They do not fill that a safe environment

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exists in places like Pakistan, where the leadership of the Taliban

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is based, where they could come out and basically be very open about

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the fact they are talking to us. Look, this peace process is not

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just government. That is why Hamid Karzai in dealing with this process

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has given responsibility to a group of very senior respectable Afghans

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who are making this Peace Council. The high Peace Council is leading

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the peace process on behalf of Afghanistan. But at the end of this,

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there is going to be a political understanding and the Taliban could

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be transformed from a military force into a political force. We

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need to talk, all of us, and it is not bad compared to a couple of

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years ago. We are engaging Pakistan extremely closely. There are other

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countries in the region helping us. What we really need is to continue

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this process and get that bit more help from countries in the region,

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in order to enable this direct face to face contact. This is the only

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thing that has not yet happened. When this comes, it will be a huge

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breakthrough. What you also need is to undermine the Taliban's central

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critique of your government, being that it is utterly corrupt and

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dishonest, by proving that you can operate with integrity? I wonder if,

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in that context, whether Hamid Karzai as President is helpful all

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part of the problem? If he will that the record of Hamid Karzai and

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the key people around him over the last decade, it is one of

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consistently and completely failing to stamp out the rampant corruption

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I will be grateful if you do not give the Taliban the credit for

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something... A legitimate critique... The current government

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has challengeds, no question about it. -- challenges. Corruption is a

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huge issue. The government is partly to blame for that. The

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Taliban has their own record to show to the Afghan people. It would

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be wrong to look at it in that sense, that corruption will stop

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them from coming in. What stops them from coming in is the fact

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that they are enmeshed in a regional and Ivan international

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infrastructure that supports extremism and terrorism. -- and

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even. The Taliban do not have an independent view of their own.

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Those who do have a view of their own are in contact with us. As a

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group, as a movement, as a political or military entity, it

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does not have to claim credit... On the question of corruption,

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corruption has been a challenge from day one. We have to discuss

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why it happened. In a country like Afghanistan, absolutely no

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governing institutions to perform their duties... Suddenly gets

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flooded with international assistance and all that. There are

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things that go wrong. We have done a lot of work. The recent

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conference focused on this question. We have taken it extremely

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seriously. There has been a degree focusing on corruption and

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reforming the government. He has issued such decrees before, he has

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made comments about zero Cologne's for corruption. -- 0 Torrance. He

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is going to be questioned again by the international community about

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his commitment to free and fair elections and democracy. -- zero

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tolerance. Can you tell me that Hamid Karzai will step down in the

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spring of 2014, there is no question at all he will try and

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extend his mandate? He will be gone? There will be free and fair

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elections then? Hamid Karzai will be tested, the government will be

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tested, but it will be tested by the Afghan people. It is an

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obligation we owed to them rather than others. To defend the

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international community, it is supporting this transformation of

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Afghanistan. We owe this to them as well. We need to say this is not

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just a transaction between Afghanistan in the international

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community. There is a whole area of Sheri... We do not have much time.

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Please address my main point. There is a clear and absolute commitment

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for Hamid Karzai stepping down and making sure the election is free

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and fair. It would be good to listen to what Hamid Karzai has

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said. He has said that he is not standing. There is no factual,

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concrete evidence showing that is not the case. If there is, let's

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see it. Let's take it as it is. We can give him the benefit of the

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doubt. On the elections, in the last couple of months we have seen

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some real concrete steps. The election commission announced the

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date of the elections. This is the time frame, 1.5 years, it will

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happen. Do you think it is acceptable that the members of the

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supposedly independent Electoral Commission are appointed by the

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President himself? It is a constitutional thing. The

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constitution and -- says so. I do not think an individual could

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single-handedly be blamed for something published in the

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constitution. This gets to the very heart of the argument I'm having

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with you. Whether Hamid Karzai is the right guy to make sure the

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transition works effectively. Hamid Karzai, within his grasp he has the

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power to appoint all of the ministers, all of the judges, all

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of the governors, all of the commissioners on the Human Rights

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Commission, all of the members of the human rights commission, all of

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the powers are with him. There are many Afghans who fear that if he

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does not actually decide to put the election that he will ensure, to

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coin the phrase, that he manipulates the deck of cards to

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ensure that one of his favoured candidates gets the job. Possibly

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his brother. Are you sure that is not going to happen? We are talking

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about a hypothesis. Hamid Karzai has said one thing, all the

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questions you are asking our general questions, but why not?

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Hamid Karzai could argue that he has been in Afghanistan for the

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last 11 years and he has brought it... There are definitely

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shortcomings but there are also successes. He says having a

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transparent, inclusive, free and fair elections is his last legacy.

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If you put yourself in his shoes, you can see the longer term

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prospects in delivering a good election. A general election.

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Especially learning lessons from the past and thinking about the

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country's long-term interest. I think these issues are being a bit

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negative... I do not need to be pessimistic, but I do need to be

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realistic. This is my last realistic question. Just imagine

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the next two years the transition does not go as well as you thought

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it would. We have talked about the Taliban, corruption, the security

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situation, the Hamid Karzai factor. If things do not go as well as you

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hope they do, do you believe the US, UK and other NATO forces me to

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reconsider their commitment to pull out combat troops if the context is

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one of deep instability, even chaos? Should that be a non

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negotiable pull-out? May it have to be rethought? I think the end of

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the current mission is a good thing. I do not think in every scenario

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you consider that it would be advisable for this existing mission,

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the presence of NATO and US troops will be advisable to continue. I

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think if we implement the building up of the Afghans over the next two

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years, more political weight behind the peace process, those two will

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ensure stability. One thing is the continued military presence of the

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US and perhaps others is a good thing in the capacity of training.

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That is why we are going to begin negotiations with the US about

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