16/06/2011 Newsnight


16/06/2011

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There $25 million on his head. Zairzairzair is the new Al-Qaeda

:00:13.:00:18.

leader. Tonight, exclusively we hear from his sister, who says he's

:00:18.:00:22.

not the savage men he is portrayed to be. He knows not that style at

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all, he's not that style at all, even now.

:00:29.:00:34.

Also tonight, Greece on the brink, the epicentre of a Euro-crisis how

:00:34.:00:40.

close are they to defaulting on their ever-increasing debt.

:00:40.:00:43.

Greek people have made many sacrifice, they have a limit, that

:00:43.:00:51.

beneath this limit we can't live. Here in the studio, the Greer

:00:51.:00:54.

perspective on the crisis, should they ditch the euro.

:00:54.:00:59.

Is the heat going out of the battle on climate change, our science

:00:59.:01:04.

editor is here. Some scientists think a less active sun may buy the

:01:04.:01:11.

time we need to engineer our way to a cooler planet. Collier and

:01:11.:01:21.
:01:21.:01:28.

Campbell celebrating 50 years of dazzling design.

:01:28.:01:33.

Al-Qaeda, now we have a face on the monster. The man to be the

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strategic brains behind Al-Qaeda, Ayman Al-Zawahiri has been given

:01:38.:01:44.

command according to jal jas year and, Al-Jazeera, he trained as a

:01:44.:01:48.

doctor and surgeon, and thought to be in hiding along the border

:01:48.:01:51.

between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Middle East experts are divideds

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too whether he has the ability to unite the different faction that is

:01:56.:02:01.

make up Al-Qaeda. We have had exclusive access to Al-Zawahiri's

:02:01.:02:11.
:02:11.:02:12.

sister. For years the chief idealist and

:02:12.:02:18.

tactition of Al-Qaeda, righthand man of Osama Bin Laden, and the

:02:18.:02:20.

operational brains behind the deadliest attacks. Ayman Al-

:02:20.:02:24.

Zawahiri is now confirmed as its commander.

:02:24.:02:29.

I believe, from my own experience is Al-Zawahiri is more extreme than

:02:29.:02:34.

Bin Laden. The man so skilled at getting

:02:34.:02:42.

people blown up used to be a doctor in Cairo. He opened a clinic, a

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private clinic and because he's very nice and he's supports the

:02:48.:02:55.

poor people, a lot of poor people and poor families gathered in his

:02:55.:03:01.

clinic. They started to talk about how far the Muslim people are

:03:01.:03:08.

depressed and suppressed in this country. In 1981, after the

:03:08.:03:15.

assassination of President El-Sadat, hundreds of Islamist suspect,

:03:15.:03:20.

including Ayman Al-Zawahiri were arrested. We believe in our

:03:20.:03:25.

religion, in m the practice and we tried our best to establish this

:03:25.:03:30.

Islamic state and Islamic society. He was cleared of plotting El-

:03:30.:03:36.

Sadat's assassination, but jailed for holding arms and tortured.

:03:36.:03:40.

state security used to take people, just to show them, Ayman Al-

:03:40.:03:46.

Zawahiri, in the prison, they used to hang him and beat him and expose

:03:46.:03:52.

him to everything that can give him pain, using electricity, water,

:03:52.:03:57.

whatever. On the surface you would not expect Al-Zawahiri to become a

:03:57.:04:01.

radical. Certainly not committed to violence. He came from the upper-

:04:01.:04:06.

classs of Egyptian society. We want to speak to the whole world. What

:04:06.:04:10.

really radicalised him was the court experience, you can see from

:04:10.:04:14.

the court experience that he's becoming a leader of men. Then the

:04:14.:04:18.

vicious treatment that was methed out to him by the large - meted out

:04:18.:04:22.

to him by the large Egyptian Security Service who is would

:04:22.:04:27.

torture him in his cell. After his release, Ayman Al-

:04:27.:04:32.

Zawahiri moved to Afghanistan where the mujahideen were fighting the

:04:32.:04:36.

Soviet occupation. Years later, his Egyptian-Islamic Jihad group,

:04:36.:04:41.

joined forces with Al-Qaeda. He lacked Bin Laden's charisma, but

:04:41.:04:47.

his anti-western vision was wider, and his organisational skills

:04:47.:04:51.

greater. Al-Zawahiri he is one of the few people who deal with

:04:51.:04:55.

organisation as a weapon, not just a structure. From my own experience

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I met with just a few people, they understand the difference between

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organisation as a structure or organisation as a lethal weapon.

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Many intelligence sources believe Ayman Al-Zawahiri was the main

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tactical planner of the 9/11 attacks.

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But now, ten years into America's war on terror, the organisation

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he's taking over is a different, less centralised one, autonomous

:05:25.:05:34.

branches of Al-Qaeda have sprung up in Iraq, North Africa and Yemen.

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He is the best known figure in Yemen now appears to have more

:05:39.:05:43.

influence among potential Jihadi, particularly in the best than Ayman

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Al-Zawahiri. In many ways Al-Zawahiri is the

:05:47.:05:51.

wrong man at the wrong time. Because what Al-Qaeda needs right

:05:51.:05:56.

now is an inspirational leader, who, through his words and charisma can

:05:56.:06:00.

inspire attacks abroad. They don't need a general at a time when they

:06:00.:06:05.

don't have an army. They don't need a manager at a time when there is

:06:05.:06:09.

nothing to manage for Al-Qaeda central, because they do not have

:06:09.:06:13.

troops that would necessarily be able to orchestrate another 9/11.

:06:13.:06:19.

So what I anticipate will happen is that there will be a competition,

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almost an interfactional war between the affiliate, especially

:06:25.:06:30.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and the central leadership of Al-

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Qaeda in Pakistan. My hunch, at this point is, is Al-Qaeda in the

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Arabian Peninsula will be more successful. But others think Ayman

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Al-Zawahiri can still command discipline throughout the

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organisation. According to man who once knew him

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well, he may be planning an operation in North Africa this

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autumn, involving the possible execution of French hostages to

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embarrass Nicolas Sarkozy. Qaeda's next move, I have very

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strong information, it's very solid, without a doubt. The next move is

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going to be like, it starts from North Africa. They will use the

:07:09.:07:19.
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AQIM, they will utilise the French hostages. They are already under

:07:19.:07:26.

their control. The AQIM, they will make sure President Sarkozy he will

:07:26.:07:31.

never ever make it for the second term as President of France. It's

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going to be a very good chance for Al-Zawahiri to express his

:07:35.:07:39.

authority as a real leader of Al- Qaeda, dealing at the international

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stage. Whether or not that's true, it is clear Al-Zawahiri wants to

:07:46.:07:49.

regain momentum in Al-Qaeda's struggle with the west. But his

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ability to do so may be gradually slipping away. Joining me now is

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our diplomatic editor Mark Urban. You heard the view there would be

:08:02.:08:06.

competition in the film. How do you think Al-Zawahiri will be received

:08:06.:08:11.

among the faithful? There was some time between the death of Osama Bin

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Laden and this announcement, a lot of people in the agencies that

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follow the counter terrorist scene was saying there was division in

:08:20.:08:24.

the organisation. It is true to say that Al-Qaeda, in its form that we

:08:24.:08:30.

know it, is partially its creation. It is the folding in of the

:08:30.:08:35.

Egyptian Jihad into the organisation that made it what it

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is. At this point the thing could explode in a sense, the factional

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tensions in it could come to the fore. The main threat to him, I

:08:43.:08:49.

think, is the so-called Libyan group, three particular Jihadist

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leaders who are said to doubt his direction and to be restive. The

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truth is, in situation like this, where the organisation is being

:08:57.:09:01.

pursued, hunted by the Americans in the way it is, pursued in many Arab

:09:01.:09:06.

countries too, the fact that he has such a long history at the top of

:09:06.:09:11.

the organisation, knows where individuals are, bank accounts,

:09:11.:09:14.

means of organising and communication channels did give him

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a decided advantage. How will he be viewed and what tactics will be

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employed by the western intelligence agencies? There is

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undoubtedly this line of analysis that goes, he will try to impress

:09:25.:09:29.

the organisation with a spectacular, that line could have been applied

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to anybody who would have taken over at this jucture in the wake of

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the killing of Osama Bin Laden. I think there will be quiet faction

:09:37.:09:42.

in the agencies, because he has some name recognition, and for

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agencies that are looking to defend their budgets and their efforts in

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the wake of the killing of Bin Laden, for someone like Al-Zawahiri,

:09:49.:09:55.

who is a Jihadist heavyweight, to have taken over, is, in that sense,

:09:55.:10:00.

useful. While his very devisiveness as a character within the militant

:10:00.:10:06.

underground, is also useful if that tips off some inside struggle or

:10:06.:10:12.

increasingly disobedient action, if you like, from Jihadist leaders in

:10:12.:10:18.

the other parts of the Arab world, supposed to owe him loyalty.

:10:18.:10:22.

Tomorrow the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French

:10:22.:10:25.

President, Nicolas Sarkozy, will meet in Berlin to try to find a way

:10:26.:10:30.

out of the Greek crisis threatening to engulf the euro. A new bailout

:10:30.:10:35.

is still being negotiated. Tonight n at then, the Government still

:10:35.:10:39.

seems in danger of unravelling, a cabinet reshuffle is under way with

:10:39.:10:46.

a vote of confidence to come. We are in the capital witnessing this

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vicarious moment. In the morning after the riot there

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is still tear gas in the square. The battle signs around St Agnes

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Square are all too evident and so is the political tension. Here is a

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building covered in graffiti, splattered with missile, fire

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damage around the back, the graffiti says "police murderers

:11:11.:11:15.

German collaborators", the problem is, this is the Greek finance

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ministry. This is the place that lost control of Greece's debt, and

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is now struggling to put things right. And just on its doorstep, a

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story in microcosim of what has gone wrong. These women have been

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camped here for 16 days. They are hardly anti-capitalist, they are

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lawyers and accountants, who have passed exams to become tax

:11:37.:11:43.

collectors in the ministry. But there is no money to find them jobs.

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It is unpredictable right now. Our future, even our close future is

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unpredictable, in three months or six months we don't know what will

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happen. We hope, of course, that's the best we can do. The irony is,

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Greece needs more tax collectors, its tax revenues have fallen this

:12:02.:12:07.

year, even after it pledged to increase them. Her message to the

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Finance Minister, stark. He has to take some measure, of course, but

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he has also to know that the Greek people have made many sacrifices,

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and that they have a limit that beneath this limit we can't live.

:12:30.:12:35.

He has to respect us. Meanwhile, in parliament, the

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comings and goings of politicians signalled drama.

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Rocked by yesterday's riots, and with his parliamentary majority

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evaporating, the Greek Prime Minister, began a reshuffle, and

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tried to stiffen his MPs. TRANSLATION: Now is the time when

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we cannot shirk our responsibilities. Now is the time

:12:56.:13:01.

when we must get to work. Now is the time when we must send a

:13:01.:13:06.

message to our society: now is the time when we must say yes to facing

:13:06.:13:11.

up to major decisions, here and now, all of us.

:13:11.:13:15.

International leaders rallied round. The IMF lift add deadline that

:13:16.:13:21.

would have forced Greece into a debt default as early as next week.

:13:21.:13:27.

President Sarkozy made this plea. TRANSLATION: I am calling on

:13:27.:13:31.

everybody to demonstrate their spirit of responsibility, and a

:13:31.:13:35.

sense of necessary compromise on which the euro is created. We need

:13:35.:13:39.

to defend our single currency, we need to defend our European

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institutions. This is our task, to do everything to preserve the

:13:42.:13:46.

stability of the eurozone, because without stability, no growth is

:13:46.:13:48.

possible, and we are all affected and we must take these decisions

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now. But the fundamental problem remain,

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the new Greek austerity plan, the people are hostile to it, and the

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centre right opposition party has rejected it. Today, its economics

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chief told me why? It needs to be a new way of thinking, that has three

:14:10.:14:17.

key elements, measures to restart the economy we suggested seven key

:14:17.:14:23.

pillars, we made significant suggestions in an aggressive growth

:14:23.:14:28.

plan. Without measures to restart the economy, we believe the

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privatisation will not in themselves produce the result they

:14:32.:14:36.

need in order to restart the economy. That is one side of the

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problem, here is the other, in St Agnes Square, where the protest

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camp has survived the street battle, they are holding out for much more

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than a reshuffle or coalition Government. They want the IMF to

:14:48.:14:52.

leave. If we get national Government, is that enough for

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people here to just disperse and go back to normal? Absolutely no. The

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thing is, and the thing that George Papandreou and the rest of the

:15:00.:15:05.

people in the system of governance don't seem to realise, this is not

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about a single person standing as an MP, people have had enough with

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the entire system of Government, this would include the others, the

:15:16.:15:20.

journalists and the businessmen all supporting them. What today has

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been about, essentially, is the politicians trying to regain the

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initiative from the protestors, but because the economic pain just will

:15:28.:15:36.

not go away, neither will this. George Papandreou, a man on the

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receiving end of an entire nation's anger and discontent, will have to

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endure some more. Paul stayed up for us to be live in

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Athens tonight. Any closer Paul to a proper Government or even an

:15:52.:15:56.

austerity plan. Mr Papandreou's problems started

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today when he tried to reshuffle the Government, as I understand it,

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various ministers weren't picking up the phone quickly enough. The

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problems increased as one member of his party tried then to call a

:16:08.:16:12.

meeting to unseat him. That speech you saw there was Papandreou seeing

:16:12.:16:16.

that challenge off. He's now stablising his own party in

:16:16.:16:20.

parliament, although with a much reduced majority. What will now

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happen, he will get through the weekend, appoint a cabinet that

:16:24.:16:28.

agrees with him, but then the fun begins. The austerity package is

:16:28.:16:32.

not really acceptable, either to the Greek people, or to the

:16:32.:16:36.

opposition, or to many of his own MPs. And what this IMF pullback

:16:36.:16:41.

from the brink has done today is really give everybody time to ask

:16:41.:16:45.

themselves the question, could they re-think the austerity package.

:16:45.:16:49.

What the centre right's objection to it is, is it does the cuts, it

:16:49.:16:52.

does the privatisation, but it has nothing to stimulate growth. What

:16:52.:16:56.

they are suggesting, which will not be music to the ears of the

:16:56.:16:59.

European Central Bank, nor to German voters, is tax cuts to

:16:59.:17:02.

stimulate growth. It is straight out of the right-wing economics

:17:02.:17:05.

play book, and it makes sense to them. But it is something that Mr

:17:05.:17:10.

Papandreou has written out of the picture, in his negotiations with

:17:10.:17:14.

the European Union and the IMF. Tell me, what do you think

:17:14.:17:20.

President Sarkozy, and indeed the IMF, what is the key thing they are

:17:20.:17:22.

concentrating on? What's concentrated their minds is what

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went on right behind me, that is the Greek parliament, and St Agnes

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Square in front of it, yesterday. And the international community are

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kind of convinced that the Greeks were prone to rioting and striking

:17:36.:17:40.

and these were basically left-wing protests, organised in a quite

:17:40.:17:44.

tokenistic manner. What has happened in the last month, is this

:17:44.:17:48.

so-called indignant movement, where up to 20 or 30 towns across the

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country, they have seen their town squares occupied, not by leftist,

:17:52.:17:56.

but by people, such as you saw in my report. Ordinary middle-class

:17:56.:17:59.

and working-class people, who just don't want this. When you see that

:17:59.:18:04.

depth of anger, that depth of opposition to austerity, and then

:18:04.:18:09.

you see it break out on to the streets, utterly violently as it

:18:09.:18:12.

did, with all the international media here, it has changed the mind

:18:12.:18:17.

of the international community. The IMF just said why are we pushing

:18:17.:18:21.

Greece towards a default when its own people are prepared to push it

:18:21.:18:25.

far more vigorously towards the same solution, I would still say we

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are nowhere near a solution here that is acceptable to the Greek

:18:29.:18:34.

people. And the Greek people are, I think, going to push this to a

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default scenario, whether the politicians want it or not.

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Joining me now is Pryce, the Greek- born former head of the UK's

:18:44.:18:48.

Government's economic service. Matina Stavis, a former editor of a

:18:48.:18:54.

Greek newspaper based in London, and Sajjan Gohel, member of the at

:18:54.:18:59.

this tank for European policies. Are your heads in your hands, where

:18:59.:19:03.

is the real world in Greece, there has to be an austerity package?

:19:03.:19:06.

There has to be, but with an end game. If you are a politician

:19:06.:19:11.

trying to make people take so much main for such a long time, you must

:19:11.:19:14.

explain to them what exactly it is you are doing, this Government has

:19:14.:19:17.

failed to do that. These people on the streets aren't stupid, they

:19:17.:19:22.

know what is going on, will there be a functioning Government to

:19:22.:19:25.

deliver the austerity package? is a good question, there may not

:19:25.:19:27.

be. We will see what happens with the vote of confidence, happening

:19:27.:19:31.

at the beginning of next week, there will be a debate about this,

:19:31.:19:36.

we will still end up with serious change, where possibly a Government

:19:36.:19:39.

of National Unity may materialise. That Government of National Unity

:19:39.:19:42.

will fare no better if that scenario is one that could happen

:19:42.:19:46.

now, people in the studio saying they don't want that, we want to

:19:46.:19:55.

push forward to default? I'm not sure they are saying default, the

:19:55.:20:00.

reprecussions would be horrendous, people would lose their money it

:20:00.:20:03.

would be terrible. Is Greece governable at the moment? Anything

:20:03.:20:06.

is governable, you need to be serious, you need to have experts

:20:06.:20:09.

and to be able to communicate and negotiate, and unfortunately this

:20:09.:20:13.

particular Government has been failing on these fronts. The Greek

:20:13.:20:19.

people are perreceiving them as just being the yes - certificate

:20:19.:20:23.

receiving them as being the question men.

:20:23.:20:30.

- perceiveing them as being the yes men.

:20:30.:20:36.

The Greeks know they don't have to deliver the austerity package

:20:36.:20:41.

because the IMF will bail them out? They hold the thump cards, they

:20:41.:20:46.

have realised what is at stake is the euro. The whole project might

:20:46.:20:53.

collapse. It is right, isn't t the Greeks hold the trmp card, the

:20:53.:20:57.

Germans - trump card, the Germans won't force this? Only in the short

:20:57.:21:02.

run, they can force the Germans and others to pay up once now, a second

:21:02.:21:07.

time next year, sooner or later the German tax-payers and others will

:21:07.:21:13.

revolt, that will put the euro into jeopardy. The euro can live without

:21:13.:21:20.

Greece, but not without Germany. will be tougher for exports without

:21:20.:21:23.

countries like Greece and Ireland. There is some kind of Machiavellian

:21:23.:21:31.

reason for keeping Greece there. the exports of Germany to Greece

:21:31.:21:35.

are a small proportion of our exports. German exports are booming

:21:35.:21:41.

going to China and India and the emerging markets. The peripheral

:21:41.:21:49.

Euro-areas is not a growth area for Germany, that is not the key

:21:49.:21:54.

problem blem. - problem. It may not be now, but it was a few years ago.

:21:54.:21:59.

With the creation of the euro, the Greeks, Portuguese and the Irish

:21:59.:22:03.

have been buying German goods, and they have kept the euro rather low,

:22:03.:22:08.

without that we will end up with a strong euro that will kill the

:22:08.:22:11.

locomotive that is Germany right now. Do you think Germany will

:22:11.:22:17.

eventually give up on Greece? immediately, but if it goes on like

:22:17.:22:21.

this if the Greeks say they don't like austerity, they want more

:22:21.:22:24.

growth and to be able to consume more, that cannot be paid by the

:22:25.:22:29.

Germans and the other northern Europeans. There may be a push by

:22:29.:22:33.

the politicians to pay now, but not tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.

:22:33.:22:37.

This is a highly one dimensional view of things, apart from the

:22:38.:22:40.

weakness or strength of the euro, apart from the matter of exports,

:22:40.:22:45.

we have to consider the exposure of German banks and other European

:22:45.:22:54.

banks to Greek and other peripheral debt. Commerce bank has failed to

:22:54.:22:58.

offload Greek debt it has on the book, that is a serious liquidity

:22:58.:23:04.

problems, how will the banks deal with that? The German Government is

:23:04.:23:09.

certainly able to bail out the banks and Germany banks. Another

:23:09.:23:13.

bailout, you don't like bailing out Greeks or Irish or Portuguese s

:23:13.:23:19.

that not a moral hazard problem. There is certainly a moral problem,

:23:19.:23:23.

just as every country bailing out your own banks is one thing,

:23:23.:23:26.

bailing out somebody else abroad is a different thing. That would be in

:23:26.:23:30.

any country in the world no different. Vicky Pryce, there is

:23:30.:23:34.

surely also a problem with simply flight of capital from Greek banks

:23:34.:23:37.

at the moment, Greeks are removing their money? We have seen that, it

:23:37.:23:40.

is a rational thing to do. I don't think we will have a solution in

:23:40.:23:45.

Greece unless there is a bailout of the banks. The Greek banks need to

:23:45.:23:48.

be recapitalised and the German banks. It needs to be accepted that

:23:48.:23:52.

there has to be a solution to the whole issue, that will include,

:23:52.:23:56.

Greece, Ireland, Portugal, that will require loss, and I'm afraid

:23:56.:23:59.

the Governments will have to step in and make sure the banks remain

:23:59.:24:03.

safe, otherwise it will be a serious issues everywhere,

:24:03.:24:07.

including Germany. Isn't there a problem that if there is political

:24:07.:24:12.

instability in Greece, and that carries on, there is much less

:24:12.:24:16.

likelihood of Germany taking a softer line, even of President

:24:16.:24:21.

Sarkozy pushing this softly line? do believe that sooner or later the

:24:21.:24:25.

Greeks will have to come up with a credible Government to go on, this

:24:25.:24:29.

Government has been credible to the eyes of the Europeans and the IMF,

:24:29.:24:32.

let's make that clear. They have not been credible to the eyes of

:24:32.:24:38.

the Greek population. We should not be fixating on Greece. It has

:24:38.:24:42.

already been made clear the systemic nature of the problem,

:24:42.:24:48.

such a systemic problem must have a systemic solution. One solution is

:24:48.:24:53.

there has to be rescheduling of some sort, a voluntary, orderly

:24:53.:24:56.

reprofiling. Again and again? and for all, it has to happen with

:24:56.:25:00.

a number of other countries. What also needs to happen is the IMF

:25:00.:25:04.

needs to come up with a long-term, sustainable recovery plan, not a

:25:04.:25:07.

short-term austerity package, the Greeks then will accept what the

:25:07.:25:13.

Government is doing and it will be governable. A once and for all

:25:13.:25:16.

restructuring, would you accept that? What do you mean by that,

:25:16.:25:21.

cutting the Greek debt, that I think is really what is needed. You

:25:21.:25:24.

have to realise there is a fundamental difference between

:25:24.:25:27.

Greece and Ireland and Portugal, Ireland has done everything it has

:25:27.:25:33.

been asked for, there is no revolution, and it is going well

:25:33.:25:36.

there. Greece is the only country that hasn't. It is different in

:25:36.:25:40.

each country, we have the same problem, it doesn't matter where it

:25:40.:25:44.

is originated. One final thought, is anyone actually in charge in

:25:44.:25:47.

Europe, is that a major problem? That is spot on, actually. What's

:25:48.:25:51.

happening in Greece and we are talking about Greece being

:25:51.:25:54.

ungovernable and thrown in a political crisis a mere reflection

:25:54.:25:59.

of what is happening in Brussels, I would argue it is Miss Merkel's

:25:59.:26:03.

position that it is she who should step up and provide that

:26:04.:26:09.

sleedership, because Germany has reaped the benefits of the euro and

:26:09.:26:14.

been a regional leader. Angela Merkel has to step up to the plate?

:26:14.:26:19.

She has her failings, but in Greece we had a precise programme a year

:26:19.:26:23.

ago that has not been fulfilled. They tried but they couldn't get

:26:23.:26:27.

the administration to implement it, as was said earlier, Government

:26:27.:26:30.

revenues were supposed to be up, they are down, expenditure is up,

:26:30.:26:34.

not a down. With such a Government and such a society you can't deal

:26:34.:26:40.

with them. Just to confirm that, you alluded to it earlier, you

:26:40.:26:44.

think Germany will just give up on Greece? They will have no choice,

:26:44.:26:49.

if Greece continues not to keep its promises. Thank you very much.

:26:49.:26:54.

Now, we think of the sun as a constant sizzling star. But rather

:26:54.:26:57.

like most teenagers, the sun gets spots from time to time, and those

:26:57.:27:01.

spots increase the amount of energy its firing at the earth, apparently

:27:01.:27:05.

we're going through a particularly unspotty stage, which you might

:27:05.:27:10.

think would be good news for global warming, that in itself brings more

:27:10.:27:15.

problems and ones that can't be solved, even with Clearasil. What

:27:15.:27:20.

is the problem at the moment with all these sunspots, what do they

:27:20.:27:25.

mean? The first thing you need to know, is the sun has active and

:27:25.:27:30.

quiet phase, this go in an 11-year cycle. It co-relates with the

:27:30.:27:34.

appearance of sunspots. That is the dark patches we see here. They are

:27:34.:27:39.

areas of intense magnetk activity, the more sunspots you have, the

:27:39.:27:43.

more energy radiated towards the earth and the warmer planet we have.

:27:43.:27:49.

The fewer sunspots the less energy radiated and a cooler planet. Some

:27:49.:27:53.

scientists have been reporting that the sun is behaving oddly, it is

:27:53.:27:58.

unexpectedly quiet at the moment. The quiet nature of the sun isn't a

:27:58.:28:03.

surprise as such, the sun always goes through this minimum in

:28:03.:28:06.

activities, what is surprising is how quiet it is. It has been

:28:06.:28:10.

extremely quiet, at its quietest for 100 years now. The he can peck

:28:10.:28:14.

station is, looking at the current data, is it will probably continue

:28:14.:28:19.

to get quieter. The sunspot number will drop and drop. How far it

:28:19.:28:24.

drops that's still open to debate. This has happened before, most

:28:24.:28:31.

memorably in the 17th century, when we saw frost fairs on the River

:28:31.:28:36.

Thames, rivers normally frost-free frozen over. Scientists are saying

:28:36.:28:40.

that is the most we can expect, much cooler regions of the planet.

:28:40.:28:44.

The idea that we are entering a global Ice Age is quite far wide of

:28:44.:28:48.

the mark. But can we think of all of this now, this cooling

:28:48.:28:51.

cancelling some of the global warming? Not really. Because we

:28:51.:28:55.

still have the issue of rising greenhouse gas, and if we look at

:28:55.:28:58.

some of the predictions and modelling into the future, the

:28:58.:29:03.

suggestion is we could see our planet warm by the end of the

:29:03.:29:07.

century to anything between 1.5-4.5 degrees. Whatever the sun does

:29:07.:29:10.

isn't going to be enough to counter that and save from us global

:29:11.:29:15.

warming. We do need to worry about climate

:29:15.:29:19.

change, even if the sun was going to compensate over periods of

:29:19.:29:22.

perhaps decades, then of course what will happen is eventually the

:29:22.:29:26.

sun will turn round, starting to more active, and then we would be

:29:26.:29:30.

in a situation with a more active sun and hygiene house gas, that

:29:30.:29:34.

would be even worse. Some scientists are worried about the

:29:35.:29:39.

worse, they say we don't have time to persuade people to use energy

:29:39.:29:43.

more efficiently, or reduce emissions, and what we need to do

:29:43.:29:49.

now is geoengineer our way out of this. What is geoengineeringing?

:29:49.:29:53.

This is large scale, sometimes whacky science fiction-sounding

:29:53.:29:56.

project, very ambitious. We will have a look at the top three.

:29:56.:30:02.

Number three we have the idea of shielding the earth which firing

:30:02.:30:06.

giant mirrors into space, basically the idea being that these mirrors

:30:06.:30:10.

reflect back the sun's radiation into space. We would need many

:30:10.:30:15.

thousands of these. Millions? Possibly. Number two we have a plan

:30:15.:30:23.

to deal with the oceans to try to make them more fertile, chucking

:30:23.:30:29.

human wee into the oceans to make it more fertile to encourage the

:30:29.:30:34.

growth of plankton, they would absorb CO2 and sink to the ocean

:30:34.:30:40.

floor when they are dead. We have schemes to suck carbon dioxide out

:30:40.:30:44.

of the at moss stpee, artificial tree, they would take - atmosphere,

:30:44.:30:50.

art fix tree, they would take it - artificial trees and they would

:30:50.:30:56.

take it in and bury T it is called carbon scrubbing, it is used by

:30:56.:31:00.

divers, that explains the contraption in the studio. It looks

:31:01.:31:04.

complicated but it is a simple advice to allow dive Tories

:31:04.:31:09.

rebreathe their own breath. Inside - drivers to rebreathe their own

:31:09.:31:15.

breath. Inside is soda lime, it is calcium hide drok side, what

:31:15.:31:22.

happens is the breath is scrubbed clean of carbon dioxide so they can

:31:22.:31:27.

rebreathe for many hours. Even some of the whacky one there is some

:31:27.:31:32.

have been tested to an experimental level. Next week the United Nations

:31:33.:31:37.

IPCC panel on climate change will look at the potential and risks of

:31:37.:31:43.

the geoengineering ideas. I will expend more energy, I will cross

:31:43.:31:49.

the studio to be joined from San Francisco by a member of the

:31:49.:31:54.

steering group of the International Panel on Climate Change and the

:31:54.:31:57.

chief scientist in from Greenpeace. These ideas of geoengineering, it

:31:58.:32:05.

is kind of whacky, isn't it? Many of them sound whacky, at first, and

:32:05.:32:09.

many of them are whacky. I would just like to separate myself from

:32:09.:32:13.

one comment that was made in the introduction, in that most people

:32:13.:32:16.

who propose these kinds of options are proposing them because they

:32:16.:32:23.

feel it is very important to cut emissions deeply, and soon. But

:32:23.:32:27.

we're afraid these emission, reductions are not coming fast

:32:27.:32:31.

enough to avoid the risk of catastrophic climate change, so we

:32:31.:32:35.

need to start looking into other mechanisms that could reduce risk.

:32:35.:32:39.

What about the idea that you are putting sulphur into the air, you

:32:39.:32:44.

are jetting up thousands, millions of aerosol, how on earth can that

:32:44.:32:52.

be good for the atmosphere? In 1991 there was a huge volcano in the

:32:52.:32:56.

Philippine that is put a lot of material into the stratosphere, and

:32:56.:33:00.

the next year the earth cooled. And had that amount of material stayed

:33:01.:33:07.

in the stratosphere, it would have been enough to offset on a global

:33:07.:33:12.

average basis all of the warming expected for this century, we know

:33:12.:33:16.

these things can basically work, what are the unintended adverse

:33:16.:33:20.

effects to investigate. I will talk about that in a minute,

:33:20.:33:27.

let's talk about firing giant mirrors into space, is that a

:33:27.:33:32.

realistic option? I think the scale of that makes it a little

:33:32.:33:36.

unfeasible, you would need to build more than a square kilometer of

:33:36.:33:42.

satellite every half hour, which I think renders it unfeasible.

:33:42.:33:48.

The IPCC will be discussing this Weekend, does that worry you, is it

:33:48.:33:53.

- this week, does that worry you? It is an expression of failure to

:33:53.:33:57.

talk about tinkering with the earth's climate because we can't

:33:57.:34:01.

get loft lagging right, it is the position we are in. We are in a

:34:01.:34:05.

very serious situation, but some of the things we need to do to tackle

:34:05.:34:09.

climate change are fairly straight forward, and we don't needing to

:34:09.:34:15.

down this route. Let's talk about them, we raised the possibility of

:34:15.:34:19.

unintended consequence, what might they be? Geoengineering comes at

:34:19.:34:24.

range of different possiblities, but quite a few of them involve

:34:24.:34:28.

impacting on the earth's climate in ways we don't fully understand.

:34:28.:34:34.

They will almost certainly be differentiating impact, some will

:34:34.:34:39.

win and some will lose. We could impact rainfall, and cause some of

:34:39.:34:43.

the problems we are trying to stop in climate change. Even if they

:34:43.:34:47.

work, even if they can be agreed, we have still got this problem that

:34:47.:34:53.

we have to keep doing them just to keep the planet stable.

:34:53.:34:56.

principle is, if human beings contributed to climate change, and

:34:56.:35:01.

climate change is man made, you think there should be a man made

:35:01.:35:07.

solution to rectify it? I think dough and I are both in agreement

:35:07.:35:13.

that the best solution to transform the energy solution into one that

:35:13.:35:16.

doesn't use the atmosphere as a waste dump. That transition is not

:35:16.:35:25.

coming rapidly enough to make me feel comfortable. You think

:35:25.:35:31.

geoengineering will happen? I'm not about to predict the future, I

:35:31.:35:38.

think that these geoengineering options in a situation where we

:35:38.:35:42.

have catastrophic climate change might be able to save lives, so we

:35:42.:35:44.

should investigate whether our well-being could be improved

:35:45.:35:50.

through these approach, but I do not think these approachs are a

:35:50.:35:55.

substitute for emissions reduction. Do you let the culprits off the

:35:55.:36:01.

hook by saying things aren't moving fast enough so we have to up the

:36:01.:36:06.

ante? This is a danger. For me the most important thing is for people

:36:06.:36:11.

to think there is an easy technical solution so we don't need to

:36:11.:36:16.

transform our energy solution, there are risks that these things

:36:16.:36:20.

could produce the kind of add vrs outcomes we have just spoken -

:36:20.:36:24.

adverse outcomes we have just spoken about. There is the

:36:24.:36:28.

potential that famines can be averted if an ice sheet slips into

:36:29.:36:34.

the ocean or methane comes out of Siberia. We want to know the

:36:34.:36:38.

options and some may involve drastic things. My worry about the

:36:38.:36:41.

immediate discussion is we can already see, you tour the websites

:36:42.:36:45.

you can already see people talking about climate, saying let's not do

:36:45.:36:50.

any of that difficult stuff, let's do the cheap and easy stuff. Do you

:36:50.:36:56.

sense the political will is going out of the argument? The political

:36:56.:37:00.

will can be reignited there are a whole range of things that can

:37:00.:37:04.

reignite emphasis on political capital around climate change,

:37:04.:37:07.

including the domestic benefit, when you look at Fukushmia, Libya,

:37:07.:37:11.

the Middle East, you look at rising gas price, you think maybe there is

:37:11.:37:14.

a better option, those are the kinds of things we are often

:37:14.:37:16.

pushing. Thank you very much. You probably

:37:16.:37:21.

never heard of them, but you have almost certainly slept beneath a

:37:21.:37:27.

duvet cover bearing one of their designs, or worn a dress featuring

:37:28.:37:33.

one of their bold patterns. One of the most prolific partnerships ever

:37:34.:37:40.

produced, the sisters Collier and Campbell, will be celebrated at the

:37:40.:37:46.

museum. Their designs will be produced for stores such as habitat,

:37:46.:37:50.

and worn by Yves Saint Laurent. Sadly, Susan Collier, the older of

:37:50.:37:53.

the sisters, died just as the exhibition was being put together.

:37:53.:38:01.

I spent the day with the other half of the colourful duo.

:38:01.:38:07.

It is about life itself, not really a copy of anything, or an idea.

:38:07.:38:10.

is also about tell ago story. I think that each of these designs

:38:10.:38:16.

has its own story, and it is part of a narrative. Susan Collier was

:38:16.:38:20.

just 22, and Sarah Campbell, a teenager, when they began designing

:38:20.:38:23.

textiles. We grew up in a house where there was just colour on

:38:24.:38:27.

everything. There was patterns. were completely surrounded by print

:38:27.:38:33.

of all kinds and weaving, and colour, and cloth, and that was all

:38:33.:38:37.

just normal. Wielding their paint brushes, they created everything

:38:37.:38:42.

from curtain material, to cushions, from high treat fashion to couture.

:38:42.:38:47.

It is something you would want to be with, isn't it, it is beautiful.

:38:47.:38:54.

Exsub rent. So many of the design - Exuberant. So many of the designs

:38:54.:38:56.

look pressure, it is hard to believe they were 30 or 40 years

:38:57.:39:02.

ago. This is where we paint. In the beginning they worked exclusively

:39:02.:39:08.

for the iconic store Liberty of London, with their front rooms as

:39:08.:39:12.

the workshops. Even now this tiny artisan space be lies a success

:39:12.:39:15.

that travels the world. This is the little key that tells us what

:39:15.:39:19.

colours goes on what screens, these are the colour tabs. Colour is

:39:19.:39:23.

always very important to us. Our mum used to give us bits of fabric

:39:23.:39:27.

and paint and ask us to match it, which we were good at. I don't know

:39:27.:39:33.

how we learned to do it but we did. Was art important, so the most

:39:33.:39:37.

obvious influence has always been Matisse. I know Susan speaks often

:39:37.:39:42.

of the Matisse book that my parents had. I remember them coming home,

:39:42.:39:47.

they had bought a little Ivan Hitchings painting, it was the high

:39:47.:39:52.

spot of my childhood. We came from a very left-wing family, our

:39:52.:39:56.

parents' work was very much, I think both of them, in their very,

:39:56.:40:01.

very different ways, were very creative, very investigative, and

:40:01.:40:05.

there was never any question Take That's sort of work one does, and

:40:05.:40:10.

it is perfectly OKment we never had to prove anything to them. Is there

:40:10.:40:13.

a political overtone to how you think about your work? There is a

:40:13.:40:18.

view that good design should be available for everyone, if that is

:40:18.:40:21.

political or just common decency I don't know. I don't know if those

:40:21.:40:27.

two words go together. They are amazing, they are textile designers

:40:27.:40:32.

in a true tradition, some how. They haven't succumbed to all the sort

:40:32.:40:36.

of machinery and the digital things, and photo copiers and this and that,

:40:36.:40:44.

it is so easy to do on a computer now. Their work is so kind of

:40:44.:40:48.

really joyous. When you worked with your sister, how did you work

:40:48.:40:55.

together, how did you do it? was much more the voice of Collier-

:40:55.:40:58.

Campbell and the public side of us. She was brilliant at managing the

:40:58.:41:04.

work and getting work and all of that. I suppose I suppose more of

:41:04.:41:11.

my time was spent painting and drawing. Traditionally. We would

:41:11.:41:17.

discuss the my nugsia of think of these - the minuscule of any of

:41:17.:41:21.

these things, the rhythm, the pattern and the harmony. Throughout

:41:21.:41:26.

the years the sisters designed clothes for themselves, in 1971

:41:26.:41:31.

Yves Saint Laurent expressed an interest in using their fabric for

:41:31.:41:36.

his haute couture collection. How much of a step change was it when

:41:36.:41:40.

Yves Saint Laurent came calling? was a terrific opportunity. He

:41:40.:41:44.

didn't call to us direct, he was calling through Liberty, we were

:41:44.:41:49.

working with Al-Libbi of London Prints. It gave us I suppose two

:41:49.:41:53.

things, one is that he recognised the fun of it and the lovely

:41:53.:42:00.

painting, and to see what he made of what we did was so full of

:42:00.:42:04.

energy, so pretty, and it gave us the marvellous opportunity to do a

:42:04.:42:08.

lot of work around the theme that is he loved. Was he complimentry?

:42:08.:42:16.

think in the use it was a compliment, yes. I think the

:42:17.:42:21.

signature of Collier-Campbell has to be colour, the wonderful way in

:42:21.:42:26.

which the fabrics move, their richness, the heat that comes out

:42:26.:42:32.

of many of their works, it's so unEnglish, and yet they are

:42:32.:42:35.

quintessentially English in the way which they build on the traditions

:42:35.:42:40.

of Morris and others. We are being told that manufacturing in the UK

:42:40.:42:44.

is on the decline, what do you think about that? I think it is

:42:44.:42:49.

very sad, I wish it wasn't so, maybe it will grow again. To see

:42:49.:42:52.

the printing industry, which was such a huge and wonderful industry

:42:52.:42:56.

in Britain gone, and to think that we live on island made of coal and

:42:56.:43:00.

surrounded by sea which is full of fish, is pretty sad when we can't

:43:00.:43:05.

seem to use any of that. I'm sad for it. I think back, even to when

:43:05.:43:11.

we started and Liberty of London Prints were printing down on the

:43:11.:43:17.

river Wandall in Merton were William Morris printed, and the

:43:17.:43:20.

printing sheds were so vibrant and lovely, and the people were hand

:43:20.:43:25.

printing, and hanging up the cloth in the ceiling of the sheds, it was

:43:25.:43:28.

a wonderful atmosphere and a lovely place, that is what the printing

:43:28.:43:34.

was about. On May 7th this year, Susan Collier died. We did decide

:43:34.:43:40.

to paint her coffin, when I say "we", I painted with her two

:43:40.:43:46.

drawers, and their two daughters, it was - two daughters, and their

:43:46.:43:51.

two daughters, it was in the studio, we had to bring it in so it didn't

:43:51.:43:54.

alarm the neighbours, it was quite a laugh to do it. There was a lot

:43:54.:43:59.

of fun and a lot of crying at the same time. It was great thing to do.

:43:59.:44:03.

How does Sarah Campbell see the future of Collier-Campbell without

:44:03.:44:07.

her sister and working partner of over 50 years? It will be very

:44:07.:44:11.

different, I can't imagine not having my working partner, who I

:44:11.:44:15.

have worked with pretty well every day of my life, all my working life,

:44:15.:44:19.

with me. And yes it will change, because we have other people here

:44:19.:44:22.

helping us, but we will still be painting, painting, painting, that

:44:22.:44:28.

is what I love, and that's what I'm good at.

:44:28.:44:38.
:44:38.:44:38.

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 41 seconds

:44:38.:45:20.

Tomorrow morning's front pages That's all from Newsnight tonight,

:45:20.:45:24.

we return to the problems in Greece for just a moment. We have obtained

:45:24.:45:27.

footage of one of the most committed protestors who hasn't

:45:27.:45:31.

missed a riot for the last three years and always on the frontline,

:45:31.:45:41.
:45:41.:45:45.

we think his name is Fido! # There's a voice that keeps on

:45:45.:45:48.

calling me # Down the road

:45:48.:45:52.

# It's where I'll always be # Every stop I make

:45:52.:45:56.

# I'll make a new friend # Can't stay for long

:45:56.:45:59.

# Just turn around # I'm gone again

:45:59.:46:03.

# Maybe tomorrow I'll want to settle down

:46:03.:46:07.

# Until tomorrow # I'll just keep moving on

:46:07.:46:17.
:46:17.:46:19.

# Down this road Today's heavy showers are fading

:46:19.:46:24.

But there's no cloud and rain to come tomorrow. Initially the wetter

:46:24.:46:27.

weather drives northwards up the western side of the UK, then we

:46:27.:46:30.

push rain into eastern areas during the afternoon. I don't think there

:46:30.:46:35.

will be much rain to the east of the Pennine, always wetter in North

:46:35.:46:39.

West England. Later in the day through the Midland, East Anglia

:46:39.:46:43.

and the south-east Midlands, the rain will push back the

:46:43.:46:47.

temperatures, a cool southerly breeze picking up along the south

:46:47.:46:51.

of England, in the south west there could be evening sunshine in

:46:51.:46:55.

Cornwall and Devon in the rain. Sunshine in Wales, clouding over

:46:55.:47:00.

quickly, rain becoming steader and heavier across the Brecon beacon,

:47:00.:47:03.

heavier rain will clear away from eastern parts of Northern Ireland,

:47:03.:47:06.

then back into the bog standard sunshine and showers you might say,

:47:06.:47:11.

it will turn wetter in Scotland as main pushing northward, the far

:47:11.:47:14.

north not doing too bad. In Inverness, very little rain here,

:47:14.:47:18.

there will be rain moving into Edinburgh, that rain will continue

:47:18.:47:22.

on Friday as well. Looking further south the wet weather doesn't

:47:22.:47:27.

really go away, temperatures 14-15, less cold on Saturday, but there

:47:27.:47:32.

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