31/10/2011 Newsnight

Are we in a lot more Hubble, bubble, toil and trouble on the deficit

than the Government is letting on? New research commissioned by

Newsnight warns that on the budget deficit something wicked this way

comes. Low growth may force the Chancellor to push back his target,

but the real frightener comes if the global situation turns bad and

we get a dark decade. 100 leading economic thinkers say

it is time for plan B. Britain's best known capitalist venturer begs

to differ with one of them. The Greek, just when you thought

the eurozone had locked down a deal, the Government and Athens has

called a referendum on that European bailout.

Outside St Paul's they are dancing, inside the clerics are busy arguing

and quitting. Should Christian values on money lenders and temples

be a no-brainer. She is unmistakable with her Faroe islands

sweater and Nicorette gum, we speak to the star of The Killing. This

role has challenged my own views of what is feminine and what is

masculine: it has liberated a lot of my own fixed thoughts about

which is which. Today there are a few machines to

be cheerful as well, evolutionary psychologist, Steven Pinker, thinks

the world is a less violent place, Good evening, the Government

engaged in a flurry of activity today, Nick Clegg committed almost

a billion pounds to industry, and trumpeted the possibility of

200,000 new jobs. David Cameron penned an article in the FT warning

us against pessimism and the danger of talking down our achievements.

The quarterly growth figures coming out tomorrow is no coincidence. The

consensus forecast is the figures are going to be poor. Is there

anything the Government can do to get the economy moving.

Here is our economics editor, Paul Mason. It is fright night for

economists. Right now Government statisticians are getting ready to

produce the growth figures for July/September, they could be

scarely close to zero. Cue the deputy Prime Minister, to

tell us what they are going to do about it. The Government today

announced nearly a billion pounds worth of state aid to businesses,

including to this once spuorned steel works in Sheffield. Let's not

talk Britain down, these are competing industries, it is good

the Government gets behind things that work, so we can create jobs

for the young people of the future here and elsewhere. The opposition,

sharpening the dagger for tomorrow, if the stats are bad, got a dig in

first. The Government hasn't understood the scale of the

problems the economy is facing and are not coming up with the measure

that will make the real difference to people losing their jobs or in

fear for their jobs and living standards. Once we get tomorrow's

figures, the debate begins in ernest about how to turn things

around. The problem s if you get lower growth, that drives a bit of

a stake true the heart of the deficit reduction plan. If you go

for tax cuts on top of that, the hole gets bigger. On the deficit,

the Chancellor has set his own target. The structure deficit to be

eradicated by 2014, debt to be falling as a percentage of GDP by

2015/16. We asked the respected research firm, CEBR, to model the

impact of low growth on the public finances. They use a similar model

to the Treasury, but their results would not be popular there. This is

what the Government thought would happen, debt peaks in 2013, the so-

called structural deficit is eliminated in 2014, and the

percentage of debt is falling in 2015/16. These last two points meet

George Osborne's self-imposed target. But low growth this year

begins to knock all that for six. If growth is just 0.9% a year,

instead of the 1.7% they expected, this is what happens to debt. It

ends up higher and the structural deficit is eradicated, if you are

lucky, a year later. What lower growth does is it makes it very

much more difficult to get in the tax revenues to bring the deficit

down. If you don't bring the deficit down, then the debt GDP

ratio, the thing which the foreign exchange markets and the other

financial markets look at, keeps on rising. You but what then? If you

add in tax cuts to low growth. We modelled an �8 billion tax cut next

year, and �4 billion in 2013, debt ends up 5% GDP higher than planned,

that is �85 billion, but the Chancellor could, just, meet his

self-imposed target then. Our researchers don't believe we will

have low growth just this year, but next year and the year after that.

In that case there is a big hit. you add low growth to �12 billion

tax cuts, our figures show the deficit to be still over �100

billion, by the end of this parliament. It shows the ratio of

debt to GDP still going on up, past 0%. Right now, the Treasury are

burning the midnight pumpkin, trying to come up with radical new

growth plan. Changes in employment law, a bonfire of planning

regulations, but few think it can be done without tax cuts. What is

shaken our growth is our uncompetitive tax and regulatory

regimes. Looking at the World Economic Forum, we had the fourth

most competitive tax regime in the world in 200, now we have the 94th

most competitive tax regime in the world. There is something wrong in

the figures. The Government should reduce taxes wherever possible to

stimulate growth, while finding further savings in expenditure

elsewhere. Those in contact with George Osborne's team, which low

growth may force the Chancellor to push back his target by a year, or

two. But the real frightener comes if

the global situation turns dark and stays dark. Then we get a very

scary decade. That's enough to frighten even the stoutist

Chancellor. Joining me now are British venture capitalist, Jon

Moulton, a member of the advisory board of Nick Clegg's Regional

Growth Fun, and the former Labour minister, Kitty Ussher. Do you

agree with that analysis that on the basis of a 0.% growth George

Osborne has to put back the target. - 0.9% growth Osbourne has to put

back his targets. If you have 0.9% growth the graphs just keep going

back. The pictures there only predict one year. Last year in the

budget the Chancellor bet for 3% growth for five consecutive years,

we were never going to get it and we are not going to get it. Kitty

Ussher, if growth sticks at 0.9% this year, and doesn't get higher

than 1.7%, which was the original, does that mean the debt isn't

eradicated? He has given himself a year's wriggle room, by giving a

five-year target to be achieved in four years. That is reasonable?

so it won't be a political disaster for him immediately. People will

realise he's running out of options. If the situation carries on for a

year or so, which is perfectly possible. He has a serious problem.

You are involved in the regional growth fund, and that is being

trumpeted to do great things, is that enough to keep things up?

grants are going to good homes. I don't expect for free money we

would have ten times as many people applying as we actually had. What

does that suggest to you, that there is not enough manufacturing?

There is not confidence or manufacturing. There isn't enough

dynamism. If that is the case, you have people suffering increased

inflation, suffering unemployment, suffering their standard of living

dropping what is there for them, the positive outlook for them?

we have to sort out the economy, which is not a friendly thing, it

is not the easy thing. Basically we have a state which is half the

economy. The public sector is half the economy. The economy can't grow

quickly until the state is much smaller. Do you think actually a

reform of the state in radical way is one way out of it, rather than

as you perhaps would have had it, throwing good debt after bad debt?

There is always things that the public sector can do better. I

think the important point here is what John just said about

confidence. Business doesn't have confidence, because the consumer

doesn't have confidence. The consumer doesn't have confidence

because a year ago the in coming Government told them there was the

most almighty crisis, far worse than we could have ever possibly

thought, so we will have to do draconian cuts faster. Do you think

it is important. It knocked confidence and the public stopped

spending money. The difference between perception and reality this

is, actually what you are saying is that was hyperbole, and things

aren't nearly as bad? It is not the case, and Labour should be far more

confident about this. The British economy was ever in a Greek, Spain

or Irish situation and the in coming Government deliberately

scare amongered for political purposes and are reaping the

negative awards. That is not to say we shouldn't eliminate the debt.

I right in thinking you were around at the time of the 200 budget?

Absolutely. In 2010 you forecast a surplus, you were only out about

about �160 billion there abouts? The point s the public began to

fear what was to come. They had ever reason to fear it. Of course

for forecasts changing, but that is completely different from saying

that this economy is going to completely collapse unless we

retrench this fast. Reregulation? Very good idea. - Deregulation?

Very good idea. Rather than increasing paternity and maternity

leave, we can't afford it? There are a stack of things we can't

afford it. We have to make it attractive to employ people,

unemployed people have rights as well as employed people.

Deregulation is an appropriate thing to do. Do you agree? Wekg

more imaginative about this. I would like more part-time jobs, so

second earners who feel they are shifts out of the jobs market

because of childcare feel there is a place for them to go.

confident are you that the Government is listening on

deregulation? They are listening a little. I don't expect them to

listen extensively, I'm merely a human being. But you are also a

human being that gave money to the Conservative Party and to Liam Fox,

we will come on to that. About the idea that you give money to the

Conservative Party, to presumably promote your sense of what is good

economic sense, mistake? It could be. Definitely the way that the

Government is developing, and my views, difr, I'm very much of the

opinion that - differ, I'm very much of the opinion that we should

get the economy into a healthy state as quickly as possible. Many

of the objectives that kit Kitty has, are the same. We will need dot

do what we want until we get the size of the debt and state down.

Do you agree that the example that Ed Milliband made about producer

companies is accurate? Possibly no. John has made money in the private

equity business, and I'm sure some of the things the firms he has

invested in as a result have led to greater prosperity. I don't

personally think it is a helpful characteristic. I do think we can

have a better type of capitalism. believe in better capitalism,

obviously. Clearly we want to end up with a socially acceptable, a

pleasant capitalism, we need to have a strong economy. It would be

nice to see growth in the economy. It would be nice to see incomes

growing, then we could afford things we are now having. What we

do at the moment is, the Government gets �4 in and spends �5. That is

what it does. We are living better today at the expense of those who

follow us. Who have to service the debt we leave behind. It is

desperately immoral, and something the sooner we stop doing the better.

Can I take you back to your relationship with Liam Fox and

Judge Van der Werff, which was all the fare - Adam Werrity, which was

all the furore recently. You invest in all sorts of companies, some

good and bad. I'm right in saying at Liam Fox's behest you invested

of a company of Adam Werrity? didn't invest, donated. What was

the pitch? The pitch was I put money with Liam before the election,

supporting his back office, all totally on the public record. That

was successful in generating good policy documents and work. Liam

asked me to put money in the same general direction, I was at great

pains to get written assurances for what it was used for, by bother no

recommend blapbs for what it was used for. You have the evidence for

what the money was used for? I do. Do you feel duped? I can definitely

say I was mugged. The definition of "foxed" is "discoloured with

yellowish brown Steyning", I believe that is appropriate. Has it

damaged you? Definitely, relatively small amount of money, gone very

blikly, and being - publicly, and being wasted. If the grot figures

here look less than impressive, - growth figures here look less than

impressive, what hope is there for one of the lame ducks of Europe,

Greece. After being offered a life Tyne from Europe, they have the

temerity to announce they will vote to accept the plan, and the

stringcy it will place on their country. If they reject it, will

they have any choice but to leave the euro. Had we any idea the

referendum would come out? No, it is a real shocker, the Euro-leaders

didn't know, people in the Greek political establishment didn't know.

In that case, the eurozone leaders were blind sided? Yes, and of

course it was one of the central banks, if not the Central Bank of

what was agreed last week, that there would be a pack Greece and

all sorts of things done to finance it. And all called into question by

George Papandreou's announcement. The key question is will people

vote for it or not. A question I asked earlier this eerpbg to a

Greek journalist, asking - morning to a Greek journalist what are the

chances of success? Although people are concerned and they see a small

A Greece's debt being written off and money coming in, fine on the

one hand, but no prospect of growth and creation of jobs. If that

doesn't change in the next few months, until we have a referendum,

then the Government will find it hard to win it. It is balanced on a

knife edge. The referendum might not be until next year? It might be.

George Papandreou didn't say when it would be. Many people don't

think it can be done for various reasons before January. What impact

will it have on the markets? Before this announcement this evening,

they were all ready in a pretty shaky state. We saw that in London,

in Germany, Milan, this is a key one, of course, because of fears

about the Italian economy, the biggest drop today,.%. More

importantly, even - 3.8%. More importantly, the rate at which the

Italian Government borrow money has gone over the heiror ir6% mark.

Something considered - - higher mark, 6%, something considered very

serious. Way back in the finance ministers' meeting in July, saying

they had come up with a solution, before that George Osborne, people

like him in the British Government were saying, a plaster won't do,

even a one trillion euro plaster won't do. You need fundamental

change, fiscal union, or moves it a properly regulated system with the

European Central Bank at the core, to level out the balances between

the economies of Germany and Greece's economy and others. In

that sense, they can argue, already, what was agreed last week is

faltering. And it really strengtheneds the case for a root

and branch approach. They are also arguing that the countries outside

the euro, the outer ten, need to be a key part of the process. They are

hoping in the run up to the G20 meeting in France later this week,

that they can continue that diplomacy. Building with countries

like Sweden and Poland, the idea of a broad irconsultation.

Earlier today I spoke - Broad earlier consultation.

Earlier I asked Radek Sikorski, the polish Foreign Minister would

Poland join the Euro-? It is a time - Euro? It is a timing issue. We

are determined to join the eurozone, it makes sense for us. When the

house is being tidied up and renovated, it is not the best time

to move in. At what point do you think will you be ready to join?

is both an economic and political decision, as I say. We don't just

sympathetically look on overcoming the problems of indebtedness in

Europe, as the presidency we have been part of the solutions. The six

pack, had it been agreed earlier, perhaps we wouldn't be in the

trouble we are in. But it is a bureaucratic name for a set of

regulations that will increase financial discipline in the

eurozone. We hope it will work. interested to know what it has been

like handling the EU presidency, when you have these egos of Angela

Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy, how do you work with them? The presidency

is not what it used to be, we are not the presidency of the European

council, we have a permanent head to do that. I don't have the

foreign affairs council, because we have a Brit, Cathy Ashton, who does

it very ablely. It is true in Ecofin, and the Finance Minister

has had his plate full, and we feel we are achieving progress. We feel

that it is at times like this that we need to complete the single

market. For example, in services and in transborder trade, we think

that would help Europe get out of its recession. When you say you are

treaty oblige to join the euro, and that was - treaty obliged to join

the euro and that was settled, are there people worrying about what

happened to Greece and Italy might be there for Poland and you are

stirring up more trouble for Poland when you join? We will make up that

argument when we are joining the euro. We think it would still make

sense for us, we want to be in the group of countries, the that decide

the fate of the largeest economy on earth and the largest single area.

Let's talk about Britain now, it is implacably opposed to the euro.

There is some sense in which Britain would be seen as the leader

of the gang that is outside the euro, you are part of that gang at

the moment, how do you feel about that? We are different in that,

because Poland is not yet in the euro, but will be in the euro one

day. Our argument is not only that the fate of the eurozone and the

principles covering all of these are important for the euro. It is

very important because even Britain will be affected. Our additional

argument is we want to have a say in principles by which we will also

one day be running our economy. you think Britain should join the

euro? It is an economic argument that depends on trade flows. About

half your trade is with the EU. For us it is higher. The argument from

that point of view is more powerful. One of the arguments against Europe

being a natural single currency area, was that there was low

movement of labour. Here in Britain I think you are experiencing quite

a lot of movement of labour within the EU. Including Poland. It has

been good for the British economy, we hope some of my compatriots will

come back. With all the turmoil, not only in the Tory backbenchers,

but in the cabinet, there is a talk about referring treaties. The talk

is, perhaps even making sure that borders are not open, and that

thriel there is not even a free movement of - a free movement of

all things within the euro. That is one of the key freedoms in Europe,

the Tories under Lady Thatcher sponsored and brought to best. I

would be surprised that is a fundamental feature of the single

market. I don't think a country that would ban movement of Labour

labour - labour could hope to remain in the single market. There

are some who would like use to leave the European Union all

together? I can't comment on internal British comments. We know

in plilgts people are moved and motivated by - politics, people are

moved and motivated by politics. For a Cathedral to lose one

Clergyman might be considered unfortunate, but to lose three in

less than a week begins to look careless. Today the Dean of St

Paul's, Graeme Knowles, followed his colleague, Giles Fraser and

another chap went out of the door in the temple. He's the one who

wanted to evict the protestors camped outside, now the Bishop of

London is taking charge. A protest movement that was anti-capitalism,

seems to be provoking a crisis of confidence in the Church of England.

From the start, the protestors in the Square Mile had the City banks

in their sights. But after they were kept back by police, the area

in front of St Paul's Cathedral was where they based themselves. It has

become an ethical quagmire for church authorities. They have found

themselves riven over issues ranging from free speech and the

ethics of the market, to health and safety and even tourist revenue.

find it quite difficult that you assume that I hold the same views

of you, simply because I don't use the same methods of expressing my

views as you. Now the Dean of St Paul's, Graeme

Knowles, who was in discussions with the campers as recently as

yesterday, has become the latest The All this comes after Fraser

frai, Canon Chancellor of St - Giles Fraser, Canon Chancellor of

St Paul's resigned. It is a car crash and the Church of England

have got themselves into a real mess over this. The latest

resignation is perhaps an indication of what Giles Fraser,

the Canon of St Paul's all luded to, is that we are on a trajectory

towards eviction, it is unstoppable. At the end of this we have seen

resignations and careers ended and for no purpose whatsoever. The

whole protest will move on shortly. And the only people taking any

flack for it is the Church of England, it is collateral damage in

a row that it didn't need to be involved in. The protestors have

certainly got plenty of attention for their grievances. Surely the

enemy are those in the dealing rooms, not those in the pulpit.

Canon Giles Fraser stood down because he felt the stand that the

Church of England would lead to violence. I respect him for doing

that. The Dean had resigned today I believe because of the way the

situation was handled. Again that is a situation that he, a decision

he has made personally, we have to remain on the issues, this is an

opportunity for the church to make a real difference to people's lives

in this country and throughout the world. The Archbishop of Canterbury

paid tribute to the outgoing Dean. In his earlier pronouncements he

has appeared to question the ethics Safe pair of hands? The Bishop of

London is caretaker of the Cathedral for the time being.

not taking a softer line at all. I think that as people were saying to

me yesterday morning, the campsite has to disappear at some point. It

has to be scaled down. The Cathedral is prudent and sensible

in exploring the legal territory. I'm told by the Chapter that they

would not wish to condone the use of violence in securing any

enforcements. Not the least of the challenges

facing the Clergy at St Paul's, is to ensure they are all singing from

the same hymn sheet. I'm joined by the writer Anne

Atkins, and an Anglican minister not far from St Paul's, he was

public affairs secretary for the Archbishop of London. It looks as

if the Church of England is completely out of its depth and out

at sea and ruled by man? certainly not because it is ruled

by man. One of the several PR disasters of the last couple of

weeks. You hear that St Paul's is losing �20,000 a day in tourist

revenue. We are not hearing about how many millions it costs for the

poor Church of England to keep this building open, with no help from

the taxpayer. In Germany the taxpayers keep the churches open.

The Church of England buildings are kept open and paid by the people in

the pews. This is I'm not defending this, I'm just saying. Nobody is

making a profit about this. I would put it to you in the 21st century

the church needs to cut its cloth and get out of St Paul's?

Absolutely we need to handle over to English Heritage, and it is not

what Jesus talked about, and we are lumbered with these things. This is

one of the many things in which the church is not really presenting its

case really well. Another thing, I'm sure that most members of the

latity are not aware and why should they be, is how incredibly brave

and frightening it is for a middleaged Clergyman to resign his

post, when he has probably earned next to nothing all his life, no

savings, owned no house for his children to live in. Is it the

church's fault because it hasn't delivered a clear line in this, and

it looks like the money lenders are running the temple? It is a PR

disaster and they have mismanaged it, that seems to be statement of

the bleeding obvious. I think today has been a game change. The

resignation of the Dean has put, has focused attention on the

politics that is going on. Graeme Knowles has gone, and he went very

suddenly and very quickly. And tomorrow we learn a few hours later

that the corporation of London are going for an eviction order. I

think those two things are related. I think he realised, probably

through Niamhity, that he has associated himself to what would be

a hawkish and aggressive policy, and he couldn't count on staying.

Is there not something that says the protestors were never meant to

be there in the first place? It is a legitimate protest. But actually,

they should be more sensitive to the church's needs? They have been

very sensitive to the church's needs. We hear from the protestors

expressions like, all we are looking for is an honest and frank

discussion with the Cathedral. Frankly, that is a phrase that the

Cathedral should be using. There is quite a mystery here, there is a

mystery as to why the Cathedral closed. I don't think it is a

mystery. There is a mystery. It is a kneejerk reaction over health and

safety issues before knowing what they were. If they had chosen to

camp outside, suppose the protestors camped out St Helen's

bishops gates, they would be eadvantagised which would have

moved them on. If they were outride a Roman Catholic church, I was in

Italy speaking to Italians last week, they said if this was

happening in St Peter's in Rome or the steps of the Vatican, they

would have been water canoned within half an hour. We fought a

reformation not to be that kind of church, to be rather more engaged

with the people on the doorstep than they are. I'm sure that would

not be the only thing for water canon, there might have been in

ministry? In Rome. They say the first thing that would happen is

the water canon. Where is the ministry here, do the protestors

want to be ministered to? That is not the question the church asks,

this church says this is what the world needs to hear. If people are

saying what would Jesus do, Jesus would have been on the side of the

protestors? No he wouldn't, he would have ploughed a completely

different Faroe saying you are worrying about the wrong thing.

are called to be between the authority and the people. If you

are talking about signals, the Archbishop of Canterbury said

clearly there was a problem. It is perfectly legitimate to think that

some of the protestors could be following his lead. In that case

what happens in the next 48 hours. There will be evictions, what will

happen? I don't know what will happen, I'm longing for somebody

like Dr Williams to say, look this is Jesus message, it is that you

are all off message there is something much more important to

worry about than the City of London, than what we are earning, there is

another life to worry about. Do you think that Rowan Williams should go

there? He would be reluctant to go over the head of the bishop in

charge of this. And very competently. And very competently,

when the riots occurred in August, the Bishop of London was one of the

few really cogent voices saying we can call for more law and order,

but frankly that is obvious. What we need to understand is why these

things are happening, and what we mustn't be, and the words he used

is, what we mustn't be is in a sealed bubble. If there is any

injuries or trouble during eviction, that will not reflect very well?

will ruin the reputation of the Church of England for a generation.

It will ruin the reputation for a generation? Not a generation. What

is going on in the Church of England is financial meltdown. What

I would love to hear is a church woman orman coming out and giving

the real message of Jesus which is to do with nothing here.

A Smoking detective in a reindeer patterned jumper. That is the

Daneer drama The Killing, over on 20 episodes on BBC Four, half a

million viewers got to know Sarah Lund slowly, as she worked on a

devastating murder case with consequences for her personal life.

The actor coroborated with the writer and director in shaping her

character. You in a sense inhabit some of the archetypal

characteristics of a male detective. Failed marriage, your problem with

smoking, you turn it around and make it very much your own. You are

kind of slightly all at sea when it comes to your mother, your

exhusband, your partner, your son, but at work you are on top of your

game all the time? We all felt that the story of the woman in a dilemma

between work and family, work and love stories, you know, the whole

battle between that, that I, of course, as a woman, I'm totally

aware that is how it is. We thought it had not relevant and it had been

told so many times. We thought we didn't want to focus, there is not

really a dilemma in that for this character, her marriage, her

biggest relationship is with her It is interesting now for feminism

to look at that and say that is a perfectly legitimate way to run

your life? I don't know if I would recommend it to anyone, men or

women. I don't know if it makes you happy, but for a story, for the

dramatic rules of drama, it is true. While you have quite male

characteristics in terms of how you maybe approach the case, your

intuition is very female. You have imbued the character with intuition,

which is a feministic, it pays off? It is funny you call it intuition,

This role has challenged my own views of what is feminism and what

is masculine. And I must say, that it has liberated a lot of my own

very fixed thoughts about which is which. Because I don't know, it is

a gut feeling or intuition, as you say, is that feminine or masculine

trait? I find that...Maybe It is just a good detective. Yeah. I love

the way the camera focuses on your face, you give so little away. Is

that what you wanted to do, less is more in the way to interpret the

character? We decided earlier on that was our goal, to create this

very secretive character. Where you didn't reveal everything. I think

we both found that it was more I actually remember at the wrap up

party, at the end of the 20 episodes, we had a goodbye party,

and the writer came up to me and said, I think that around episode

18, I think we got the character, she was there. Which was wonderful,

of course, I knew what I meant. After 18 episodes she was almost

striped of everything. We are about to see series two of The Killing,

not 20 episodes but ten. You have been sent to a small town as a

passport inspector, and then you're called back. When you started

shooting this, did you know what was going to happen when you were

called back? Like we always work, I only had that first script that we

were working on. Because nothing else was written. But, of course, I

always have the writer telling about the bigger lines. But I don't

know where the story is going, and I'm actually working on the third

season now. I don't know where it is going. And presumably

singlehandedly you have turned round the Faroe Isles economy by

that jumper? I hope, they need it, like the rest of us. Thank you very

much indeed. Is the world a violent place?

Almost certainly, yes. A position reinforced by the images that flash

daily on to our TV and computer screens from around the world. Is

it a lot less violent than it was, despite the of the repeated

assertion that the 20th century was the bloodiest in history. Steven

Pinker argues in his new book, The Better Angels of Nature, after a

phrase by Abraham Lincoln, that despite world wars, civil wars,

invasions and long-running conflicts, a range of cultural,

social and scientific changes, the rise of empathy and reason, have

ensured that the world has become a less violent place.

Steven Pinker, first of all, do people regard or recoil from

violence more now because of philosophical issues, or simply

because of pragmatic issues. For example, if someone was to set off

a nuclear bomb a lot of us would not be here again, is it

pragmatisim or philosophical? think it is a bit of each. I think

the theory that we owe the theory of peace to of the last six decades

to the nuclear bomb I think is wrong. For one thing, there was

plenty of memory from World War II, that good old fashioned tanks and

artillery and good old aerial bombardment could do so much damage

that nobody wanted a rematch some time soon. Because the nuclear bomb

is so useless as a tactic in war, other than deterring all out

annihilation, that it was almost taken off the table as a live

option. That is why so often in the last decade a non-nuclear power as

defied a nuclear one. Argentina knew Britain wouldn't retaliate

with a nuclear strike. Isn't part of the reason people are less

depreposed to violence is we are a much more interconnected world, and

it is not just faceless masses being mown down? I think so, it is

not a coincidence that the enlightenment, such as the

abolition of slavery, and things like disemboweling and breaking on

the wheel, came after an enormous expansion of book publishing,

travel, music, cosmopolitan cities, the advances the last 60 year, the

civil rights he have illusion, the women's rights he have illusion,

the electronic global village. It is hard to extol the buetyo of war

when you have images of a naked girl running from a napalm attack

and the reality of war is brought home to you. You are in the habit

of seeing the world from other people's points of view. Imagining

what it is like to be someone else, by reading their words and history

and memoirs. That is interesting, that doesn't, that would not

necessary - necessarily be the case when it comes to the war in the

Balkans, people were seeing their neighbours, and in Kosovo, people,

their neighbours they were mowing them down. There was a senseless

violence and genocidal violence. That in itself, it may be more

compartmentalised, but there is no improvment in human nature is

there? I don't think there was an improvement of human nature, we are

born violent and always have been, it is different aspects of human

nature engaged by the world. Human nature comprises a lot of ugly

motives, revenge and tribunalism, but motives like empathy, self-

control and reason. It is which one of those, the better angels, or the

inner demons, gets engaged in the world we live in. In violence and

war, we are talking about the economy tonight. Do you, you seem

to say in your book that we generally unjustifiably unpest

mistic, we are move glass half full rather than empty. At the very

least we need to show grattaid for what we have done right, -

gratitude for what we have done right. The world of the journalism

is biased, there is enough violence to fill the news, news is full of

things that go bang and people get hurt. When you have millions dying

peacefully from Alzheimer's dae disease, cancer, heart attacks, it

is not cameras filming those deaths, violence can be distorted by

horrific images on the news. suggest reasons to be cheerful

rather than reasons not to be unhappy? Among other things the

threat of global nuclear annihilation has been taken away.

Which is what many of us grew up with. In a modern society we have a

30th chance of being murdered as our medieval ancestors. Women,

racial minorities and gay people no longer have the threat of violence

in the home and streets. And we have abolished barbaric practices

like human sacrifices and prisons. No more human sacrifice! Tomorrow

morning's front pages, in the Telegraph, St Paul's branded a

That's all from Newsnight tonight, if you have been out this

Hallowe'en, hope you did well. Good Good evening. Some heavy rain

tonight, pushing from west to east. The rain will gradually ease in the

morning. Producing cloudy and damp start for eastern England, further

west heavy showers around, increasing amounts of sunshine.

Showers decay into the afternoon. It is looking like a pleasant start

to November for many. In northern England light winds, longer spells

of sunshine. Feeling warmer than today. Temperatures on the face of

it a few degrees down. The far south-east corner, including Sussex

and Kent may take all day for the skies to clear, and to see a little

bit of sunshine. Most low cloudy throughout, rain heavy for a time

but easing. Into the south west and through Wales the morning showers,

of course, which could be heavy, will gradually said one or two into

the second half of the day. Most dry and bright. Same too in

Northern Ireland, any early showers here will disappear, for most it

will be a predominantly dry and sunny day. Big improvements on

Monday's weather. Still showers in North West Scotland, the rest of