Browse content similar to 24/01/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
Line | From | To | |
---|---|---|---|
On tonight's programme a clutch of demoralised economists, a rather | 0:00:00 | 0:00:03 | |
jount jaunty Scottish first minister. The Swedish statistician | 0:00:03 | 0:00:07 | |
who can foresee the future. The economy is in even more trouble | 0:00:07 | 0:00:13 | |
than we thought. The fear is that a 21 isn't century crisis is as bad | 0:00:13 | 0:00:18 | |
or worse than anything in the 1930s. Is there also an scenario that is a | 0:00:18 | 0:00:23 | |
little more hopeful. Two economists and a financier offer us their | 0:00:23 | 0:00:27 | |
ideas on reasons to be cheerful, or not. We are off for a role model | 0:00:28 | 0:00:32 | |
for the Scottish First Minister. don't think, Jeremy, you can do | 0:00:32 | 0:00:36 | |
yourself any great favours by comparing Scotland to Zimbabwe. | 0:00:37 | 0:00:43 | |
comparing you to Mugabe? We report from China on what the | 0:00:43 | 0:00:47 | |
word "freedom" mean to the urban poor and the urban woman about town. | 0:00:47 | 0:00:52 | |
Do you feel as free as the women in the west? We feel free, we can do | 0:00:52 | 0:00:56 | |
the things we want. No you can't? What do you mean. You can't change | 0:00:56 | 0:01:00 | |
your Government? Why do we have to change our Government. We have the | 0:01:01 | 0:01:06 | |
world famous statistician and sword swallower Hans Rossling here to | 0:01:06 | 0:01:13 | |
make sense of China's position in the world. Following the death in | 0:01:13 | 0:01:16 | |
1976 we saw the start of economic growth in China, never did we think | 0:01:16 | 0:01:20 | |
we would sit here tonight and discuss when China would catch up | 0:01:20 | 0:01:30 | |
0:01:30 | 0:01:32 | ||
with Britain. As news goes it was about as the | 0:01:32 | 0:01:37 | |
dentist telling you he will have to redo root canal work. The | 0:01:37 | 0:01:42 | |
International Monetary Fund has looked at the evidence and decided | 0:01:42 | 0:01:46 | |
the longed for recovery is at stalling point. It predicts the | 0:01:46 | 0:01:50 | |
British economy growing slower than expected. Official figures here | 0:01:50 | 0:01:53 | |
shows the national debt rising to over a trillion pounds. There is | 0:01:53 | 0:01:57 | |
confident predictions it will stay there. Some may be day for staying | 0:01:57 | 0:01:59 | |
in bed too. George Osborne will tell us what the British economy | 0:01:59 | 0:02:09 | |
0:02:09 | 0:02:15 | ||
did in the last three months of The world faces a 1930s moment, | 0:02:15 | 0:02:19 | |
unless it acts now to prevent a downward spiral into economic | 0:02:19 | 0:02:23 | |
catastrophy. They are the words of the IMF boss, Christine Lagarde. As | 0:02:23 | 0:02:26 | |
a former French minister, she knows more than most how European | 0:02:26 | 0:02:30 | |
politicians have been dragging their feet in this crisis. On top | 0:02:30 | 0:02:40 | |
0:02:40 | 0:03:01 | ||
of that bleak warning, the IMF The world recovery, weak in the | 0:03:01 | 0:03:06 | |
first place, is in danger of stalling. The epicentre of the | 0:03:06 | 0:03:12 | |
danger is Europe. But the rest of the world is increasingly affected. | 0:03:12 | 0:03:17 | |
Things were more black and white back in the 1920s and 1930, in | 0:03:17 | 0:03:26 | |
Germany inflation was so rampent it printed a one trillion mark note. | 0:03:26 | 0:03:31 | |
Not yet in Britain, but the national debt has reached one | 0:03:31 | 0:03:35 | |
trillion pounds. That is served as a starter before tomorrow's | 0:03:35 | 0:03:41 | |
official growth figure, which may not show growth at all. The reality | 0:03:41 | 0:03:45 | |
is the Office for Budget Responsibility revised up growth | 0:03:45 | 0:03:49 | |
for 2011, and revised down growth for the UK in 2011. The Government | 0:03:49 | 0:03:52 | |
likes to blame everybody else for the economic troubles except for | 0:03:52 | 0:03:57 | |
itself. First they blamed the snow, then the royal wedding, now they | 0:03:57 | 0:04:00 | |
are blaming the eurozone, when is this Government going to take | 0:04:01 | 0:04:04 | |
responsibility for its own actions. If she wants to know whose | 0:04:04 | 0:04:08 | |
responsibility at least partly for the mess this country is in, look | 0:04:08 | 0:04:14 | |
immediately to her left. I have to say it's come to something when | 0:04:14 | 0:04:17 | |
Katie Price's tweets make more sense on the economy than the | 0:04:17 | 0:04:21 | |
Labour front bench. Even those in the City who doubt it are believers | 0:04:21 | 0:04:26 | |
again in the UK economy. Last year I was the angel of doom, one of the | 0:04:26 | 0:04:29 | |
most pessimistic in the market, this year I think growth will be | 0:04:29 | 0:04:33 | |
better than anyone can presume. I'm looking for growth just below 1%, | 0:04:33 | 0:04:37 | |
not anything to show off about. course, that is scant consolation | 0:04:37 | 0:04:40 | |
for the thousands of people, especially in the retail sector, | 0:04:40 | 0:04:46 | |
looking for new jobs in this rebalancing economy. Or even for | 0:04:46 | 0:04:53 | |
those refining oil, in Coryton, whose parent job went bust today, | 0:04:53 | 0:05:00 | |
jeopardising 850 jobs in Essex. The man who controls the cost of | 0:05:00 | 0:05:05 | |
borrowing wasn't sugar-coating the bill many are facing in the economy. | 0:05:05 | 0:05:10 | |
After the steepist downturn in output since the 1930s, the UK | 0:05:10 | 0:05:13 | |
economy is in the process of rebalancing. Starting from a | 0:05:13 | 0:05:20 | |
position of excessively leverageed balance sheets, the Pat of recovery | 0:05:20 | 0:05:25 | |
is likely to be arduous, long and uneven. The position of the world | 0:05:26 | 0:05:35 | |
economy, especially in the euroarea, is serious. There is no reason to | 0:05:35 | 0:05:40 | |
dispassion all crises come to answered. -- despair, all crises | 0:05:40 | 0:05:45 | |
come to an end. The health of the UK economy | 0:05:45 | 0:05:50 | |
depends crucially on whether the train wreck of Europe can be | 0:05:50 | 0:05:55 | |
righted. Greece is in talks about a one billion euro writedown. If they | 0:05:55 | 0:06:00 | |
can't come to an agreement and there is a sudden default, all of | 0:06:00 | 0:06:04 | |
Europe will be plunged into an instant recession. With the | 0:06:04 | 0:06:08 | |
exemption of a few hedge funds who took out insurance against a Greek | 0:06:08 | 0:06:14 | |
default, everyone else wants a deal, they know the consequences are too | 0:06:14 | 0:06:17 | |
unpalatable if they don't. immediate consequences of a | 0:06:17 | 0:06:20 | |
controlled default, is there would be significant pressure on other | 0:06:20 | 0:06:25 | |
countries like Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy. That in that | 0:06:25 | 0:06:31 | |
financial markets would fear, or maybe expect similar defaults might | 0:06:31 | 0:06:35 | |
happen there too. The crisis would very quickly transmit from Greece | 0:06:35 | 0:06:38 | |
to these other countries, multiplying the effects, and | 0:06:38 | 0:06:41 | |
leading to a much greater recession in the eurozone. | 0:06:41 | 0:06:46 | |
But you don't think that will happen? We do not think that is the | 0:06:46 | 0:06:50 | |
most likely scenario really for that reason. That the economic | 0:06:50 | 0:06:53 | |
consequences are very significant indeed. | 0:06:53 | 0:06:57 | |
But things aren't all that bad. The European Central Bank has made | 0:06:57 | 0:07:01 | |
billions of euros available to Europe's banks at cheap rates, and | 0:07:01 | 0:07:05 | |
it is starting to work. The cost for borrowing for Spain and Italy | 0:07:05 | 0:07:09 | |
has gone down, and makes those countries less likely to join | 0:07:09 | 0:07:14 | |
Portugal, Ireland and Greece in the bailout club. Across the Atlantic, | 0:07:14 | 0:07:17 | |
whisper it, there are tentative signs of US recovery. | 0:07:17 | 0:07:21 | |
So as President Obama prepares for his last State of the Union address | 0:07:21 | 0:07:25 | |
before the election in November, he can also silently hope that | 0:07:25 | 0:07:32 | |
unemployment will continue to inch downwards. | 0:07:32 | 0:07:38 | |
For those yet to see the much lauded silent film The Artist, the | 0:07:38 | 0:07:41 | |
central character finds resem in the end, having previously looked | 0:07:41 | 0:07:45 | |
in all the wrong places. Perhaps Government and policy makers around | 0:07:45 | 0:07:49 | |
the world have to be quieter in future and look in the right places | 0:07:49 | 0:07:55 | |
for economic redemption. Our economics editor pauing Mason | 0:07:55 | 0:08:01 | |
is here. This is a picture of --, Paul Mason is here. This is a | 0:08:01 | 0:08:05 | |
picture of gloom what are they spelling out? They want to talk | 0:08:05 | 0:08:09 | |
about the double-dip in the eurozone. There is a five-year | 0:08:09 | 0:08:14 | |
growth pattern in the eurozone, the big dip in 2008, this year we | 0:08:14 | 0:08:19 | |
expect a 0.5% shrinkage of the eurozone economy, on the back of 2% | 0:08:19 | 0:08:24 | |
shrinkage in Spain and Italy. It is not the worst, they also do explore | 0:08:24 | 0:08:28 | |
what if Greece explodes into people's faces, and on the bay sifs | 0:08:28 | 0:08:32 | |
that they have projected a minus three -- basis of that they have | 0:08:32 | 0:08:38 | |
projected a minus three in the eurozone. A it is not good. They | 0:08:38 | 0:08:41 | |
have started to dole out advice to everybody, starting with the | 0:08:41 | 0:08:44 | |
Americans. They have said to the Americans, not with standing your | 0:08:44 | 0:08:48 | |
economy is doing all right at the moment, if political paralysis in | 0:08:48 | 0:08:51 | |
America leads to an unnecessary withdrawal of the stimulus, it will | 0:08:51 | 0:08:58 | |
be bad. They might as well as have said, "don't vote Republican", they | 0:08:58 | 0:09:02 | |
didn't. To the EU, they have said get your act together, they have | 0:09:02 | 0:09:06 | |
said to the Germans do less austerity. We don't know if they | 0:09:06 | 0:09:12 | |
mean it for the Brits, they said anything who can get away with less | 0:09:12 | 0:09:18 | |
do less. With the euro they have said there are two trillion euros | 0:09:18 | 0:09:21 | |
available do what you have to do. What are they saying Governments | 0:09:21 | 0:09:27 | |
need to do? Sub plement austerity with growth measures. That is where | 0:09:27 | 0:09:33 | |
it gets down to -- microeconomics, one person's idea is state-backed | 0:09:33 | 0:09:37 | |
funding in Germany, or a massive assault on labour costs in southern | 0:09:37 | 0:09:40 | |
Europe. They never quite spell it out, because it is not in the | 0:09:40 | 0:09:44 | |
tradition of countries to do these growth measures, certainly in the | 0:09:44 | 0:09:49 | |
west for the last 20 years. The problem s austerity is not easy to | 0:09:49 | 0:09:58 | |
do, but it is -- is, austerity is not easy to do, but it is easy to | 0:09:58 | 0:10:03 | |
design. Macro-economics is not easy to abolish. It is not easy. With us | 0:10:03 | 0:10:08 | |
now is Nicola Horlick, chief executive and founder of Bramdean | 0:10:08 | 0:10:13 | |
Asset Management, Professor Christopher Pissarides, the Nobel | 0:10:13 | 0:10:17 | |
Prize-winning economist, and the chair of economics in the London | 0:10:17 | 0:10:19 | |
school economics. And Mariana Mazzucato, industrial economist | 0:10:19 | 0:10:23 | |
from the university of Sussex. It is gloomy stuff from the IMF, are | 0:10:23 | 0:10:27 | |
they right to be gloomy? Absolutely. I think sometimes people could | 0:10:27 | 0:10:33 | |
benefit from taking a historical perspective. If you plot GDP data | 0:10:33 | 0:10:38 | |
from 1850 to 1950, before the whole Keynesian stimulus began. There was | 0:10:38 | 0:10:44 | |
depressions every 20 years, we have avoided depressions because since | 0:10:44 | 0:10:48 | |
1950, many Governments all over Europe and the US have done what | 0:10:48 | 0:10:51 | |
Keynesian said, during the slump you do not take away aggregate | 0:10:51 | 0:10:56 | |
demand, during the boom you try to rein in the horpbs. What we are | 0:10:56 | 0:11:01 | |
seeing now is during the -- horns. What we are seeing now is during | 0:11:01 | 0:11:04 | |
the boom period it was fuelled by Government policies, and during the | 0:11:04 | 0:11:08 | |
bust we are seeing cuts in demand, which is hurting the ability of the | 0:11:08 | 0:11:12 | |
economy to recover, asling with as the lack of the confidence of the | 0:11:12 | 0:11:16 | |
business sector to invest. Are they being unnecessarily pessimistic? | 0:11:16 | 0:11:19 | |
Maybe it is just because it is after Christmas. I think there is a | 0:11:19 | 0:11:24 | |
little bit more optimisim. The problem with talking like this is | 0:11:24 | 0:11:26 | |
becomes self-fulfiling. If everybody keeps saying the world | 0:11:26 | 0:11:29 | |
will come to answered, it will come to an end. It is very important for | 0:11:29 | 0:11:32 | |
some of us to be a little bit more positive. There are reasons to be a | 0:11:32 | 0:11:37 | |
little bit more positive. What are they? Well, for a start, I think | 0:11:37 | 0:11:42 | |
often what happens when we go through recessionary phases is | 0:11:42 | 0:11:45 | |
people fear for their jobs, when organisations are cutting jobs, | 0:11:45 | 0:11:48 | |
they are fearful. That means that people who aren't going to lose | 0:11:48 | 0:11:52 | |
their jobs, because they are fearful, don't spend. Many | 0:11:52 | 0:11:55 | |
organisations now have had a wave of redundancies, whether it is in | 0:11:55 | 0:11:58 | |
the public sector or the private sector, and those people who didn't | 0:11:58 | 0:12:01 | |
lose their jobs may be feeling a bit more optimistic, may be | 0:12:01 | 0:12:07 | |
prepared to spend a bit more. You never know. | 0:12:07 | 0:12:11 | |
The epicentre of the trouble, they locate in the eurozone. There is | 0:12:11 | 0:12:15 | |
not much reason to think that is going to be resolved imminently, is | 0:12:15 | 0:12:22 | |
it? It is so important that it is resolved fairly quickly, that you | 0:12:22 | 0:12:28 | |
have to have confidence in the powerful nations, especially | 0:12:28 | 0:12:32 | |
Germany, that they will do something. In fact, the very recent | 0:12:32 | 0:12:37 | |
reports, maybe today or something, were very encouraging in the sense | 0:12:37 | 0:12:40 | |
that they seem to be prepared to go for the tough fiscal discipline, | 0:12:40 | 0:12:45 | |
which is needed, and then put some more money into the European | 0:12:45 | 0:12:48 | |
Financial Stability Fund. They say. They have to start by saying it, | 0:12:48 | 0:12:57 | |
before they do it. What do you make of the worries about the eurozone? | 0:12:57 | 0:13:02 | |
It depends what you think the cause of the eurozone crisis was. If you | 0:13:02 | 0:13:06 | |
look at deficit spending in almost every country except Greece, that | 0:13:06 | 0:13:09 | |
was definitely not the problem. The deficits ran up after the crisis | 0:13:09 | 0:13:13 | |
because of the bailouts and all the other problems with the economies. | 0:13:13 | 0:13:16 | |
It is not true that you have austerity in Germany right now. | 0:13:16 | 0:13:20 | |
They are spending, they just, I think, after the crisis, have | 0:13:20 | 0:13:25 | |
increased, for example, their R & D spending by four billion. The | 0:13:25 | 0:13:32 | |
problem is they think Germany is imimposing on the PIGs and France | 0:13:32 | 0:13:36 | |
is imposing austerity, which they have not done in order to draw. If | 0:13:36 | 0:13:40 | |
you look at human capital spending, R & D, that is part of the reason | 0:13:40 | 0:13:43 | |
why Germany is having the success it is having. These are objective | 0:13:43 | 0:13:50 | |
problems, which can't be overcome by increasing optimisim? Can they | 0:13:50 | 0:13:54 | |
Pollyanna. It is not just optimisim, also there are things that are | 0:13:54 | 0:13:57 | |
being done by the Government which should help. Infrastructure | 0:13:57 | 0:14:00 | |
spending, we have had a series of announcements about. That that is | 0:14:00 | 0:14:04 | |
one way of helping. On a more microlevel, there is something | 0:14:04 | 0:14:08 | |
called the enterprise investment scheme, which has been enhanced in | 0:14:08 | 0:14:12 | |
the UK. That gives individuals tax breaks in order to encourage them | 0:14:12 | 0:14:16 | |
to invest in small and medium-sized enterprises, that is very key. The | 0:14:16 | 0:14:20 | |
banks, as we know, aren't really lending to those businesses. There | 0:14:20 | 0:14:23 | |
are things that are being done that will help to stimulate the economy | 0:14:23 | 0:14:28 | |
eventually, I hope. Actually, the prognosis for Britain, it wasn't | 0:14:28 | 0:14:31 | |
particularly exciting, but it wasn't as bad as it was for many | 0:14:31 | 0:14:37 | |
other places? It wasn't as bad. But it didn't have to be as bad as it | 0:14:37 | 0:14:42 | |
was either. Britain was in a much better position than other | 0:14:42 | 0:14:46 | |
countries, it had its own independent mol monetary policy, | 0:14:46 | 0:14:55 | |
that is important. Debt levels were not very high. There wasn't that | 0:14:55 | 0:14:57 | |
much urgency to go into the austerity measure that is we did | 0:14:57 | 0:15:04 | |
over a year ago. Having said that, though, it is important that the | 0:15:04 | 0:15:07 | |
overall framework of the Italian poll -- the policies continue like | 0:15:07 | 0:15:12 | |
that. The features of the policy should be transparent, not cause | 0:15:12 | 0:15:15 | |
confusion in the markets. We understand very well what the | 0:15:15 | 0:15:20 | |
Chancellor wants to do, markets understand it. The IMF seems to | 0:15:20 | 0:15:23 | |
think there is a danger in austerity going too far, not in | 0:15:23 | 0:15:30 | |
this country, but generally? It has to go far in Europe because the | 0:15:30 | 0:15:35 | |
debt situation got so out of control. Especially in southern | 0:15:35 | 0:15:40 | |
Europe and Ireland. When did it get out of control, do you think? | 0:15:40 | 0:15:45 | |
Greece it got out of control. Forget Greece, but in Spain? | 0:15:45 | 0:15:50 | |
Italy it was always high. Spain actually it is not, it is not out | 0:15:50 | 0:15:54 | |
of control even now, if you look at the state finances. The problem for | 0:15:54 | 0:15:58 | |
Spain is that following the housing boom that they had up to 2007, | 0:15:58 | 0:16:03 | |
there is a lot of private debt. So the question is, what will happen | 0:16:03 | 0:16:09 | |
to that private debt if the borrowers cannot pay. The mortgage | 0:16:09 | 0:16:14 | |
holders cannot pay, the state will have to step in and help them, | 0:16:14 | 0:16:18 | |
otherwise their banks will go bankrupt. And the private debt will | 0:16:18 | 0:16:22 | |
quickly become public debt. The Italy had low rates of growth | 0:16:22 | 0:16:27 | |
and had the highest GDP productivity rates in Europe, the | 0:16:27 | 0:16:31 | |
problem was not spending too much, but in the wrong places. They were | 0:16:31 | 0:16:37 | |
not growing, they had high debts, sooner or later they were going to | 0:16:37 | 0:16:40 | |
get there. If you were in Government, and you read this IMF | 0:16:41 | 0:16:46 | |
report, what would you conclude that you had to do as a matter of | 0:16:47 | 0:16:50 | |
some urgency now. Looking at these really worrying forecasts. What | 0:16:50 | 0:16:54 | |
would you do? I think it raes right that we should continue on the same | 0:16:54 | 0:16:57 | |
-- it's right we should continue on the same Pat. We need to make sure | 0:16:57 | 0:17:02 | |
the markets -- Pat. We need to make sure the markets have confidence in | 0:17:02 | 0:17:08 | |
us. We don't need an economic crisis on greater scale, by making | 0:17:08 | 0:17:15 | |
the markets concerned about Britain and not issuing enoughg ilts, it is | 0:17:15 | 0:17:20 | |
important to continue on the path of consistency. There is always | 0:17:20 | 0:17:24 | |
leeway, encouraging people to invest. There are plenty of | 0:17:24 | 0:17:27 | |
companies out there with strong balance sheets, it is about | 0:17:27 | 0:17:30 | |
confidence. If we can some how increase confidence levels people | 0:17:30 | 0:17:33 | |
will continue to spend again, individuals or companies. What | 0:17:34 | 0:17:39 | |
would you take as something you have to do immediately. Two things | 0:17:39 | 0:17:44 | |
you have to do immediately, one is the Keynesian issue, you do not | 0:17:44 | 0:17:48 | |
take away the increase in the VAT, that was a regressive tax that hurt | 0:17:48 | 0:17:53 | |
poor people more than rich people. That hurts demand because lower | 0:17:53 | 0:17:57 | |
income people spend most of their income. So when you take away from | 0:17:57 | 0:18:02 | |
them, that immediately hits them, that is why Tesco sales went down | 0:18:02 | 0:18:05 | |
recently. The freeze in public sector wages, that was not a smart | 0:18:05 | 0:18:13 | |
thing to do in the recession. There is the Keynesian point, but that is | 0:18:13 | 0:18:17 | |
what economies have been doing for the last 50 years. We have a | 0:18:17 | 0:18:20 | |
strategic problem, we need strategic investments in particular | 0:18:20 | 0:18:27 | |
areas. I would do a bit more along the lines that is done now for | 0:18:27 | 0:18:31 | |
example national insurance contributions, if a company has | 0:18:31 | 0:18:35 | |
unemployed workers, especially young unemployed, give it exemption | 0:18:35 | 0:18:40 | |
from national insurance tax for as long as that person is there. | 0:18:40 | 0:18:44 | |
Encourage more small businesses. We failed here to find new export | 0:18:44 | 0:18:49 | |
markets. The eurozone is not much good as an export market right now, | 0:18:49 | 0:18:55 | |
why not be more aggressive, go elsewhere, the Chancellor's trip to | 0:18:55 | 0:19:00 | |
China was welcome, but firms could be doing more R & D, subsidised by | 0:19:00 | 0:19:05 | |
the state. Strategic spending is not sensitive to taxation, it needs | 0:19:05 | 0:19:08 | |
new opportunities to invest in it. The Scottish First Minister gave us | 0:19:08 | 0:19:11 | |
a hint today about what his country might be like if he gets his way, | 0:19:11 | 0:19:17 | |
and manages to bust up the United Kingdom. The latest opinion poll | 0:19:17 | 0:19:21 | |
shows half of us doubt the existence of the UK in its current | 0:19:21 | 0:19:27 | |
form in 20 years time. While Moses, I mean Alex Salmond didn't promise | 0:19:27 | 0:19:33 | |
a land of milk and hundred, he did promise a beacon of progressiveness. | 0:19:33 | 0:19:37 | |
We have been looking into the economic questions that need to be | 0:19:37 | 0:19:41 | |
settled before any referendum. What better place to prepare for | 0:19:41 | 0:19:45 | |
burns night and contemplate the intricacies of Scottish | 0:19:45 | 0:19:49 | |
independence, than here at the headquarters of the London Scottish | 0:19:49 | 0:19:51 | |
Regiment. Cheers, they have their own blend | 0:19:51 | 0:19:58 | |
of whiskey. The first problem we have got to | 0:19:58 | 0:20:01 | |
wrestle with, is whether Scotland will still be, as an independent | 0:20:01 | 0:20:08 | |
state, a member of the EU. The SNP insists it will simply inherit the | 0:20:08 | 0:20:12 | |
same treaty rights and obligations that the UK has at present. But | 0:20:12 | 0:20:16 | |
some constitutional experts are not so sure. | 0:20:16 | 0:20:22 | |
Rather annoyingly, EU treaties don't have a clause that we can | 0:20:22 | 0:20:27 | |
point to to to give us a definitive answer. When a Welsh MEP asked what | 0:20:27 | 0:20:31 | |
would happen a few years ago. The commission replied any newly | 0:20:31 | 0:20:35 | |
independent region would have to leave the EU, and if it wanted to, | 0:20:35 | 0:20:38 | |
reapply to join again. That would require all the other states, | 0:20:38 | 0:20:42 | |
including the UK, to agree. politics will be a question of | 0:20:42 | 0:20:46 | |
whether the UK can or will help, and whether countries, in | 0:20:46 | 0:20:51 | |
particular like Spain, Italy, France, that may themselves face | 0:20:51 | 0:20:57 | |
potentials sigs sessionist demands are willing to --s sessionist | 0:20:57 | 0:21:03 | |
demands are willing to allow favours for Scotland. And how for | 0:21:03 | 0:21:06 | |
the UK is, will depend on the independence negotiations as they | 0:21:06 | 0:21:10 | |
form over time. There is another problem, if Scotland has to rejoin | 0:21:10 | 0:21:16 | |
the EU, EU rules are clear, they have also to join the euro, and | 0:21:16 | 0:21:20 | |
that might not be the most popular move right now. Let's for a moment | 0:21:20 | 0:21:25 | |
assume the SNP is correct that Scotland can stay in the EU but | 0:21:25 | 0:21:28 | |
doesn't have to join the euro, does that mean it can keep the pound F | 0:21:28 | 0:21:32 | |
it does, in practice, how financially independent will it | 0:21:32 | 0:21:36 | |
really be? Nobody could stop an independent | 0:21:36 | 0:21:40 | |
Scotland from using the pound. The problem would be that the Bank of | 0:21:40 | 0:21:42 | |
England would be setting interest rates without taking into account | 0:21:42 | 0:21:45 | |
conditions in Scotland. They would have no control over the interest | 0:21:45 | 0:21:49 | |
rate or exchange rate. A bigger problem is who is the lender of | 0:21:49 | 0:21:55 | |
last resort. If the Scottish banks went belly up as in 208, would the | 0:21:55 | 0:21:59 | |
Scottish Government be big enough to bail them out, it doesn't seem | 0:21:59 | 0:22:03 | |
they would. As with any divorce things could get a little fraught. | 0:22:03 | 0:22:08 | |
Let's start with who owns what, the oil, for example? Maritime borders | 0:22:08 | 0:22:11 | |
aren't that clear cut. There is the question of the gold in the Bank of | 0:22:11 | 0:22:15 | |
England vaults, and, of course, there is who gets what share of the | 0:22:15 | 0:22:20 | |
UK's national debt. Today tipping a trillion pounds. Expect the legal | 0:22:20 | 0:22:25 | |
big guns to get involved. The state of Scotland's finances looks | 0:22:25 | 0:22:33 | |
something like this, �62 billion of public expenditure, �42 billion of | 0:22:33 | 0:22:36 | |
revenue, excluding those oil revenues. If you include those | 0:22:36 | 0:22:42 | |
revenues, that rises to �48 billion, still a deficit of �14 billion, of | 0:22:42 | 0:22:46 | |
course, the UK as a whole is also in deficit. If Scotland became | 0:22:46 | 0:22:50 | |
independent, what Scotland would lose is the current transfer from | 0:22:50 | 0:22:58 | |
the UK of something like �8 billion, and then that gap, that is | 0:22:58 | 0:23:02 | |
currently spent on public services in Scotland would have to be filled | 0:23:02 | 0:23:07 | |
by the North Sea oil of �8 billion. If there is an oil price of around | 0:23:07 | 0:23:12 | |
$100, that would be filled, if there was an oil price of $150 it | 0:23:12 | 0:23:17 | |
would be more than filled and Scotland would be better off. If it | 0:23:17 | 0:23:22 | |
was $50 there would be a problem. Oil is the key swing element here | 0:23:22 | 0:23:26 | |
in terms of whether Scotland can sustain the current position, or do | 0:23:26 | 0:23:35 | |
better or do slightly worse. think I might need another one. | 0:23:35 | 0:23:41 | |
Because there is another big issue we have to grapple with, it is this. | 0:23:41 | 0:23:45 | |
Without detailed answers to all of these and many, many more questions, | 0:23:45 | 0:23:50 | |
how meaningful can any referendum of the Scottish people be? And, | 0:23:50 | 0:23:54 | |
assuming they hear answers they like, and a deal they can accept, | 0:23:54 | 0:23:57 | |
won't that have profound implications for the rest of the UK | 0:23:57 | 0:24:03 | |
and costs as well. That's the case, well some believe that the rest of | 0:24:03 | 0:24:06 | |
the UK should also have a referendum. This is to adapt the | 0:24:07 | 0:24:13 | |
words of that famous son of Edinburgh, Sir Authur cone nan | 0:24:13 | 0:24:17 | |
Doyle a three-bottle problem. I caught up with the First Minister | 0:24:17 | 0:24:23 | |
a little earlier today. Alex Salmond, how would an independent | 0:24:23 | 0:24:26 | |
Scotland be different? It would be governed as the people of Scotland | 0:24:26 | 0:24:31 | |
would wish it to be governed. Raise their own taxes, decide on spending | 0:24:31 | 0:24:35 | |
priorities, decide whether to go into illegal wars in rae, the | 0:24:35 | 0:24:41 | |
answer would be no, incidently. It would be a difference of the | 0:24:41 | 0:24:44 | |
formation. There would be a lot more if Scotland were independent. | 0:24:44 | 0:24:49 | |
It would also be broke, wouldn't it? Independent Scotland would be | 0:24:49 | 0:24:53 | |
the sixth most prosperous country in the EOCD, that is the reasonable | 0:24:53 | 0:24:57 | |
basis to start being an independent country. We have a trillion worth | 0:24:57 | 0:25:02 | |
of public debt in the country, how much would the Scots take? | 0:25:02 | 0:25:07 | |
normal way to divide up debt is population share or GDP share. That | 0:25:07 | 0:25:12 | |
will give us 8%. Incidently we would have 90% of a trillion pound | 0:25:12 | 0:25:16 | |
asset in terms of oil and gas resources in the North Sea. But the | 0:25:16 | 0:25:20 | |
birthright of any citizen of an independent Scotland will be about | 0:25:20 | 0:25:24 | |
�16,000 worth of debt or more than that? The assets would be much | 0:25:24 | 0:25:27 | |
greater. The difference between Scotland's position, well, you're | 0:25:27 | 0:25:32 | |
talking about the debt that the UK has accumulated, we take our share | 0:25:32 | 0:25:38 | |
of that, because we're part of the UK. We can't do anything about the | 0:25:38 | 0:25:41 | |
mistakes of previous Chancellor of the Exchequer. You know the level | 0:25:41 | 0:25:45 | |
of public spending in Scotland, the last year for which records are | 0:25:45 | 0:25:50 | |
available? You also know. What was it? Scotland's fiscal position in | 0:25:50 | 0:25:55 | |
four out of the five years has been positive, expenditure and revenue | 0:25:55 | 0:25:58 | |
statement. Also, incidently. know what the level of public | 0:25:58 | 0:26:03 | |
spending was in Scotland? And the level of revenue is higher, Jeremy. | 0:26:03 | 0:26:09 | |
Over the last five years. official figures are �62 billion of | 0:26:09 | 0:26:14 | |
public spending in Scotland. 2009/10, do you know what the | 0:26:14 | 0:26:18 | |
revenues raised in Scotland were? know that in four out of the last | 0:26:18 | 0:26:25 | |
five years. They were �48, there is a �14 billion gap? There is �150 | 0:26:25 | 0:26:31 | |
billion gap in the UK. Relative to the United Kingdom, Scotland is in | 0:26:31 | 0:26:36 | |
a stronger fiscal position. Let's look at the reserves that your | 0:26:36 | 0:26:43 | |
country would have available to you. Gold, first off. There is about 310 | 0:26:43 | 0:26:46 | |
tonnes gold that the Bank of England is looking after, what | 0:26:46 | 0:26:50 | |
share of that do you want? Normally the way in independence to do these | 0:26:50 | 0:26:53 | |
things, there is a well trod path, many countries have become | 0:26:53 | 0:26:57 | |
independent. You have the same percentage of assets and the same | 0:26:57 | 0:27:02 | |
percentage of liabilities. You want about 8% of the 300 tonnes of gold? | 0:27:02 | 0:27:07 | |
That would be the normal way. A country's resources, we have gone | 0:27:07 | 0:27:11 | |
past the measuring tile period. Country's resources aren't backed | 0:27:11 | 0:27:17 | |
by gold. Just as well, Gordon Brown sold most of it. But you still want | 0:27:17 | 0:27:23 | |
it? A fair division of assets and liabilities, including the range of | 0:27:24 | 0:27:31 | |
assets that Scotland has. How get it -- how would you get it north? | 0:27:31 | 0:27:35 | |
Many countries hold it in common. The bank of international | 0:27:35 | 0:27:38 | |
settlements. You might leave it at the Bank of England? We have plenty | 0:27:38 | 0:27:42 | |
of vaults in Scotland. Will there be an armoured train or something? | 0:27:42 | 0:27:48 | |
It would be a lot better than the nuclear trains that go to Scotland | 0:27:48 | 0:27:51 | |
at the moment. Let's look at the politics of it, you say an | 0:27:51 | 0:28:00 | |
independent Scotland would be a beacon of progressiveness. I think | 0:28:00 | 0:28:04 | |
I remember Robert Mugabe saying something similar about Zimbabwe? | 0:28:04 | 0:28:08 | |
don't think you will do yourself any great favours comparing | 0:28:08 | 0:28:14 | |
Scotland to Zimbabwe. And comparing you to Mugabe? Or myself or any | 0:28:14 | 0:28:21 | |
other Scottish MP to Mugabe. Implicit in it, it is a one-party | 0:28:21 | 0:28:25 | |
state? As the star of Zimbabwe television I wouldn't dream of | 0:28:25 | 0:28:29 | |
comparing you to that person. Implicit is the belief there is | 0:28:29 | 0:28:33 | |
really only one party that can rule Scotland? That's not the assumption. | 0:28:34 | 0:28:38 | |
Scotland is not just a multiparty democracy. Incidently we have more | 0:28:38 | 0:28:41 | |
parliamentary parties competing than you have south of the border | 0:28:41 | 0:28:45 | |
at the present moment. But Scotland has a system of proportional | 0:28:45 | 0:28:49 | |
representation, which ensures that minority voices have a chance of | 0:28:49 | 0:28:53 | |
being regularly represented in our parliament. This is a beacon of | 0:28:53 | 0:28:55 | |
progressiveness, are there other progressive parties in Scotland? | 0:28:55 | 0:28:59 | |
Yes, there are. The Labour Party, are they progressive? | 0:28:59 | 0:29:02 | |
particularly, sometimes in the past they have been progressive. But the | 0:29:02 | 0:29:06 | |
Green Party are a progressive party. You were talking also about a | 0:29:06 | 0:29:11 | |
social union. Isn't the best way to guarantee a social union a | 0:29:11 | 0:29:15 | |
political union? No, I'm saying we can have political independence but | 0:29:15 | 0:29:19 | |
continue the social union. Whether it is institutional sharing of a | 0:29:19 | 0:29:23 | |
Monarch, for example, or the great family advertise. Jeremy, we will | 0:29:23 | 0:29:27 | |
be even able to watch you on Newsnight after Scotland is | 0:29:27 | 0:29:30 | |
independent. You can only watch part of the programme now? It will | 0:29:30 | 0:29:34 | |
be better, there is the choice of watching the whole of the programme, | 0:29:34 | 0:29:37 | |
we will have the alternative choice of a whole Scottish problem. Will | 0:29:37 | 0:29:42 | |
you pay the license fee? We will watch it on the same basis as the | 0:29:42 | 0:29:46 | |
Irish Republic. They don't pay? will pay for BBC programmes in the | 0:29:46 | 0:29:50 | |
same way as we will contribute to buy anything else we choose to | 0:29:50 | 0:29:55 | |
watch. I assure you, you shall be a star in an independent Scotland. | 0:29:55 | 0:29:59 | |
You won't be paying the license fee? We will have a license fee to | 0:29:59 | 0:30:03 | |
set up a Scottish broadcasting channel, I'm quite certain we will | 0:30:03 | 0:30:08 | |
be wanting to purchase from the BBC a range of series. Do you see us as | 0:30:08 | 0:30:13 | |
some sort of charity? I can't believe you have said that. I'm | 0:30:13 | 0:30:18 | |
sure in the BBC charity begins at home. Alex Salmond thank you. | 0:30:18 | 0:30:21 | |
pleasure. Now to part two of the series on | 0:30:21 | 0:30:25 | |
China. Not for them news of public debt, nor any debate about capping | 0:30:25 | 0:30:29 | |
benefits, come to that, not much debate of any kind, and not many | 0:30:29 | 0:30:33 | |
benefits either. The rest of the world is woefully ignorant about | 0:30:33 | 0:30:37 | |
its most heavily populated country. It is not just that it has a | 0:30:37 | 0:30:40 | |
communist Government, and a supposed million millionaires. It | 0:30:40 | 0:30:43 | |
is also something we just can't get. What is it like to live in state | 0:30:43 | 0:30:48 | |
where you can have more than your parents ever dreamed of, yet not be | 0:30:48 | 0:30:58 | |
0:30:58 | 0:31:04 | ||
free to change the Government? To get rich is glorious. | 0:31:04 | 0:31:13 | |
The words of Dun Chao Ping the words of the communist leader are | 0:31:13 | 0:31:18 | |
born out across the country's capital. But can you really have | 0:31:18 | 0:31:22 | |
economic freedom without political freedom. It is the crucial | 0:31:22 | 0:31:26 | |
contradiction. The secret of China's international success isn't | 0:31:26 | 0:31:31 | |
a secret at all. It is just that it can make things more cheaply than | 0:31:31 | 0:31:35 | |
anywhere else. But the secret of China's political arrangements at | 0:31:36 | 0:31:45 | |
0:31:46 | 0:31:46 | ||
home. That is all together much more complicated. | 0:31:46 | 0:31:51 | |
Chinese Emperors used to claim that the just ruler had a mandate from | 0:31:51 | 0:31:55 | |
heaven. Today, China's communist rulers claim their mandate to | 0:31:55 | 0:32:04 | |
govern comes from delivering social justice. Chen Yongjiang is the sort | 0:32:04 | 0:32:09 | |
of person, a peasant, that they set out to help. It has been five years | 0:32:09 | 0:32:14 | |
of rising ambitions and rising prosperity for Mr Chen, he has | 0:32:14 | 0:32:18 | |
diversified from vegtables and chickens, to taking tourists along | 0:32:18 | 0:32:21 | |
the great wall, and feeding and lodging them in his home in the | 0:32:21 | 0:32:25 | |
valley below. But now he looks to have collided, | 0:32:25 | 0:32:33 | |
not with heaven or history, but with money. Mr Chen has spent years | 0:32:33 | 0:32:37 | |
building up his business. Now the local authorities want to sell his | 0:32:37 | 0:32:43 | |
land to a developer, who plans to build a great wall theme park, | 0:32:43 | 0:32:51 | |
where his house now stands. TRANSLATION: The decision has been | 0:32:51 | 0:32:55 | |
made, the project will go ahead. It is very sad. This is a beautiful | 0:32:55 | 0:33:02 | |
place, and none of us want to leave. Mr Chen has no say in the matter. | 0:33:02 | 0:33:09 | |
His ambition, destined to become a necessary sacrifice. A few miles | 0:33:09 | 0:33:14 | |
down the valley is a taste of what's to come. Under the shadow of | 0:33:14 | 0:33:21 | |
the wall, they are already planting de ress, instead of apple trees. | 0:33:21 | 0:33:24 | |
When it comes to projects like these, it is never quite clear | 0:33:24 | 0:33:29 | |
where the state ends, and private enterprise begins. Either way, the | 0:33:29 | 0:33:39 | |
0:33:39 | 0:33:44 | ||
little guy is the loser. Once a year, China's vast economy | 0:33:44 | 0:33:53 | |
briefly pauses. Hundreds of millions of factory and office | 0:33:53 | 0:34:03 | |
0:34:03 | 0:34:06 | ||
workers head home to spend new year with their families. At Beijing | 0:34:06 | 0:34:10 | |
South Railway Station, designed by the British architect, Terry | 0:34:10 | 0:34:14 | |
Farrell, one doesn't want to hold people up. Even if the place does | 0:34:14 | 0:34:24 | |
0:34:24 | 0:34:29 | ||
have a waiting room that can hold 10,000. We have hit the buffers on | 0:34:29 | 0:34:39 | |
0:34:39 | 0:34:40 | ||
my mandarin. 11.25? Which class? 1St, 2nd or business. What is the | 0:34:40 | 0:34:44 | |
difference in price. We will go 1st class. If I have enough money. | 0:34:44 | 0:34:54 | |
0:34:54 | 0:34:58 | ||
That's cheap. Maybe there's no purity in poverty, | 0:34:58 | 0:35:02 | |
the social contract here is pretty obvious. You're allowed to make | 0:35:02 | 0:35:08 | |
money, but you're not really allowed to dissent. Of the enormous | 0:35:08 | 0:35:12 | |
number of things made in the workshop of the world, this | 0:35:12 | 0:35:18 | |
relationship between Government and citizen is surely one of the very, | 0:35:18 | 0:35:25 | |
very oddest. A communist regime that feeds its citizens by | 0:35:25 | 0:35:29 | |
satisfying western consumerist capitalism. But maybe, if you have | 0:35:29 | 0:35:38 | |
enough to eat, not having a vote doesn't really matter. The reading | 0:35:38 | 0:35:45 | |
on the commute from Beijing to Tianjin is more Financial Times | 0:35:45 | 0:35:51 | |
than Das Capital these days. In this people's Republic, people want | 0:35:51 | 0:35:58 | |
to get seriously rich. To help them, the Government provides a train | 0:35:58 | 0:36:07 | |
capable of 200 miles an hour. Tan, once one of the resented | 0:36:07 | 0:36:12 | |
treaty ports where westerners were allowed to trade in China is being | 0:36:12 | 0:36:22 | |
0:36:22 | 0:36:22 | ||
rebuilt, day by day, on the fruits of foreign trade. Freedom appears | 0:36:22 | 0:36:26 | |
to be the freedom to make money. No small matter in a country where so | 0:36:26 | 0:36:30 | |
many are still so poor. Getting rich is very, very important. We | 0:36:31 | 0:36:37 | |
are getting richer. Almost everybody is getting their life | 0:36:37 | 0:36:44 | |
better. This is very important, we can afford better lifestyles, we | 0:36:44 | 0:36:48 | |
can more things. We can have more choices. People want to make more | 0:36:48 | 0:36:53 | |
money so they can do more things, as you say, but there is still lots | 0:36:53 | 0:37:03 | |
of things they can't say? That's true isn't it? Yes. | 0:37:03 | 0:37:08 | |
Among the gloofpl so many skyscraper, Tianjin is -- the gloom | 0:37:08 | 0:37:14 | |
of so many skyscrapers, Tianjin is one of the few to retain its past. | 0:37:14 | 0:37:19 | |
It was founded by a British Methodist missionary in the 1860s. | 0:37:19 | 0:37:25 | |
There is no love for the Colonial powers, and the imperial dynasty | 0:37:25 | 0:37:28 | |
that accommodated them, except in the travel and tourism trade. We | 0:37:28 | 0:37:33 | |
are now in the original hotel, are we? Yes, and you know we walk here, | 0:37:33 | 0:37:43 | |
0:37:43 | 0:37:43 | ||
and all the people say, this is the nicest place in the hotel, the | 0:37:43 | 0:37:50 | |
Emperor used to dance here very often. Now you are standing here. | 0:37:50 | 0:37:56 | |
feel lucky already. There was, of course, no freedom whatsoever when | 0:37:56 | 0:38:03 | |
foreigners did as they pleased in a feeble China. Nowadays, the | 0:38:04 | 0:38:10 | |
foreigners' bar isn't reserved for foreigners. Soya and her friends | 0:38:10 | 0:38:16 | |
are the new Chinese middle-class, happier talking about Sex and the | 0:38:16 | 0:38:22 | |
City, than the little Red Book. Do you feel as free as a woman in | 0:38:22 | 0:38:27 | |
the west? We feel free. We feel free. We can do the things we want. | 0:38:27 | 0:38:32 | |
He yeah. No you can't? What do you mean by that? You can't change your | 0:38:32 | 0:38:37 | |
Government? Why do we have to change our Government. You might | 0:38:37 | 0:38:44 | |
not want to, don't you want the freedom to do it? Don't you want | 0:38:44 | 0:38:49 | |
the right to decide the laws under which you live? We have the right | 0:38:49 | 0:38:52 | |
to decide some things. But you can't get rid of the communist | 0:38:52 | 0:38:58 | |
party? Why we need to get rid of it? Because you might not like it? | 0:38:58 | 0:39:05 | |
Why do you have to change it. This is our Government, it raises us, | 0:39:05 | 0:39:12 | |
and it gives our clothes, schools, food, everything. But maybe the | 0:39:12 | 0:39:22 | |
0:39:22 | 0:39:24 | ||
definition of the freedom you mean, maybe it is different from our's. | 0:39:25 | 0:39:29 | |
Freedom is a relative term, and Chinese people may well be freer | 0:39:29 | 0:39:35 | |
than they have ever been. Maybe we worry too much about definitions, | 0:39:35 | 0:39:41 | |
and maybe the amazing growth of China can continue forever. But if | 0:39:41 | 0:39:47 | |
it can't, then perhaps things more intangible than the latest | 0:39:47 | 0:39:51 | |
electronic plaything will come to seem more important. But not for | 0:39:51 | 0:39:57 | |
now. We are going to hear now from the award-winning statistician and | 0:39:57 | 0:40:01 | |
academic, Hans Rosling, famous for turning statistics into graphics | 0:40:01 | 0:40:06 | |
and founder of what he calls a fact tank called Gapminder. Just before | 0:40:06 | 0:40:13 | |
we ask him to demonstrate some of his unique data on China and the UK. | 0:40:13 | 0:40:19 | |
This is, -- this is why everyone is talking about him. Here we go, | 0:40:19 | 0:40:24 | |
first an axis for health, a life expectancy from 25-75 years. Down | 0:40:24 | 0:40:34 | |
here an axis for wealth, income per person, $400, $4,000 and $40,000. | 0:40:34 | 0:40:40 | |
Down here is poor and sick, up here is rich and healthy. Now, I'm going | 0:40:40 | 0:40:47 | |
to show you the world 200 years ago, in 1810. Here come all the | 0:40:47 | 0:40:53 | |
countries. Europe brown, Asia red, Middle East green, Africa south of | 0:40:53 | 0:40:56 | |
Sahara blue, and the Americas yellow. The size of the country | 0:40:56 | 0:40:59 | |
bubble shows the size of the population. Look what is about to | 0:40:59 | 0:41:04 | |
happen. Here we go again. In my lifetime, former colonies gained | 0:41:04 | 0:41:08 | |
independence, and then finally they started to get healthier, and | 0:41:08 | 0:41:13 | |
healthier, and in the 1970s, then countries in Asia, Latin America, | 0:41:13 | 0:41:17 | |
started to catch up with the western countries. They became the | 0:41:17 | 0:41:22 | |
emerging economies, some in Africa fold, some Africans were stuck in | 0:41:22 | 0:41:27 | |
civil war and others hit by HIV. Now we can see the world today in | 0:41:27 | 0:41:31 | |
the most up-to-date statistics. He's here in the studio now. Give | 0:41:31 | 0:41:39 | |
us your analysis on China in the UK. I -- China and the UK. I will do it | 0:41:39 | 0:41:44 | |
between China and the UK. Here is getting healthier and life | 0:41:44 | 0:41:49 | |
expectancy. The UK was leading the long march out of sickness and | 0:41:49 | 0:41:56 | |
poverty. China was way behind. Now I stop, here you can see how 1815 | 0:41:56 | 0:42:01 | |
after the Napoleon war, the speed was quite slow, it wasn't happening | 0:42:01 | 0:42:05 | |
much. China was pushed back in the opium war, and Britain was taking | 0:42:05 | 0:42:09 | |
off. China remained down here. This is the fantastic rise of health in | 0:42:09 | 0:42:13 | |
Britain, that was the Spanish flu, and then they come up here, you can | 0:42:13 | 0:42:22 | |
see into modern time, China starts now to get healthier, Ping goes for | 0:42:22 | 0:42:26 | |
the pun, decade after decade starting to catch up. To the point | 0:42:26 | 0:42:30 | |
now where there is almost equality? On the health axis, China has | 0:42:30 | 0:42:35 | |
reached further. Not on the money access still. China today is where | 0:42:35 | 0:42:41 | |
you UK was in 1948. What do you conclude for the future? I can make | 0:42:41 | 0:42:45 | |
it even simple letter here. I will take away the health dimension, and | 0:42:45 | 0:42:51 | |
then I will show you now on this access income, richer is that way, | 0:42:51 | 0:43:01 | |
and here in 1800, 1900, 20000 and into the future. I have lined up UK | 0:43:01 | 0:43:05 | |
and China and Sweden and Japan. In that time you can think of Sweden | 0:43:05 | 0:43:10 | |
as a more removed but independent Scotland! Down here we are South | 0:43:10 | 0:43:13 | |
Korea. Look when I drag them into the future, you can see the UK is | 0:43:13 | 0:43:19 | |
getting richer and richer, but Sweden is closer to Japan than the | 0:43:19 | 0:43:24 | |
UK. Japan is taking off but the other countries, South Korea and | 0:43:24 | 0:43:29 | |
China are down there. Only in the last 40 years they start to follow. | 0:43:29 | 0:43:33 | |
Sweden and Japan has caught up. South Korea is starting, we don't | 0:43:33 | 0:43:37 | |
even think about China that they would ever do it. But it is not a | 0:43:37 | 0:43:41 | |
new thing what happens with China, it is down after down that is doing | 0:43:41 | 0:43:46 | |
this. Sweden, first, then Japan, then South Korea, now China. And I | 0:43:46 | 0:43:50 | |
do a very simple trajectory, nobody knows about the future. But I think | 0:43:50 | 0:43:55 | |
our mind set hampers us to see what is most probable. The most probable | 0:43:55 | 0:43:59 | |
is that China will repeat what the others have done. These were | 0:43:59 | 0:44:05 | |
trailers, this is the feature film. Within 30-40 years they will reach | 0:44:05 | 0:44:09 | |
the same level as Britain. Environmental, political, there may | 0:44:09 | 0:44:13 | |
be many constraints. But this is the course of eye vents. The growth | 0:44:13 | 0:44:17 | |
is not so -- events, the growth is not so fast up here. Come and sit | 0:44:17 | 0:44:22 | |
down and we will chew the fat about China. What struck me there last | 0:44:22 | 0:44:25 | |
week was, you know the assumption here in the west is that they need | 0:44:25 | 0:44:29 | |
to understand us, they need to learn from us. It struck me as | 0:44:29 | 0:44:33 | |
being the completely the other way round, really? The first thing is | 0:44:33 | 0:44:38 | |
there is no west any longer, it is an ethnic identity, is Poland part | 0:44:38 | 0:44:44 | |
of it, Russia? What is the west? It is a very strange concept. I hear | 0:44:44 | 0:44:48 | |
you are using it. Really what we have in the world is a continuous | 0:44:48 | 0:44:52 | |
world, where we have countries at different economic and social and | 0:44:52 | 0:44:56 | |
political levels and situations. All the way from west Europe or | 0:44:56 | 0:45:02 | |
Norway, which is leading, down to Congo and Afghanistan. That's a | 0:45:02 | 0:45:05 | |
very interesting observation. My point was that the assumption is | 0:45:05 | 0:45:09 | |
that they need to learn from us, and actually it struck me that we | 0:45:09 | 0:45:15 | |
need to learn from them? It is sad to see that the Chinese communist | 0:45:15 | 0:45:19 | |
party is more serious about the new energy systems and climate than we | 0:45:19 | 0:45:23 | |
are in west Europe. We seem to be very short-sighted in our democracy. | 0:45:24 | 0:45:27 | |
We like the democratic system, we are willing to die for it. But when | 0:45:27 | 0:45:32 | |
we compare, you know, it doesn't come out that neat. When people in | 0:45:32 | 0:45:36 | |
Turkey are thinking, you know, and people in India are thinking, | 0:45:36 | 0:45:40 | |
Europe or China, what is best for us to copy in the coming decade, it | 0:45:40 | 0:45:45 | |
is not so clear for them. Have you had any thoughts about how | 0:45:45 | 0:45:48 | |
important it is to people that they have, as those girls in that film, | 0:45:48 | 0:45:52 | |
they were not bothered about the fact that they had no real | 0:45:52 | 0:45:55 | |
political freedom, they couldn't change their Government, because | 0:45:55 | 0:45:57 | |
their standard of living was getting better and better. Have you | 0:45:57 | 0:46:02 | |
had the chance to think about that? Of course they were bothered. I | 0:46:02 | 0:46:06 | |
have worked in communist countries, people cannot speak. If they were | 0:46:07 | 0:46:11 | |
bothered they couldn't tell you, because you would broadcast it. | 0:46:11 | 0:46:15 | |
They sounded very happy? Watch out for the dictatorship, they can't | 0:46:15 | 0:46:20 | |
speak freely. On your graph you put a big caveat about freedom of | 0:46:20 | 0:46:24 | |
expression? Yes. I mean the thing is, the sequence of events is | 0:46:24 | 0:46:28 | |
different today. Britain started with its institution, with its | 0:46:28 | 0:46:33 | |
freedom of speech and free press, and so on, then came technology, | 0:46:33 | 0:46:37 | |
economy, health. Today countries do it in other sequences. I think | 0:46:37 | 0:46:41 | |
India has an advantage for the future. India? Yes, because they | 0:46:41 | 0:46:45 | |
have the democratic institutions in place. They have a free press and | 0:46:45 | 0:46:51 | |
they have a very vivid civil society. So that people say there | 0:46:51 | 0:46:55 | |
is a very smooth road in China with a big bump ahead. Where as India | 0:46:55 | 0:46:59 | |
has a bumpy road but no block ahead. Hans Rosling, thank you very much. | 0:46:59 | 0:47:02 | |
That is all from Newsnight tonight, much more tomorrow, until then, | 0:47:02 | 0:47:12 | |
0:47:12 | 0:47:12 | ||
much more tomorrow, until then, good night. | 0:47:12 | 0:47:17 | |
Another cloudy day to come tomorrow. It won't be as cold as it was today | 0:47:17 | 0:47:20 | |
across eastern areas. In fact to the east of the Pennines a few | 0:47:20 | 0:47:23 | |
breaks in the cloud. A bit of sunshine. For most a cloudy day | 0:47:23 | 0:47:26 | |
with rain in western Scotland and Northern Ireland. Eventually some | 0:47:26 | 0:47:29 | |
of that rain will trickle into parts of North West England. Down | 0:47:29 | 0:47:33 | |
the eastern side, most places dry, but grey, but crucially, | 0:47:33 | 0:47:38 | |
temperatures will be much higher than they were through the day | 0:47:38 | 0:47:41 | |
today, for some it was struggling at 1-2. The mild air across the | 0:47:41 | 0:47:45 | |
south west, it will be mild again tomorrow. It is looking pretty grey. | 0:47:45 | 0:47:49 | |
There will be an increasing wind, gusty that wind on the west coast | 0:47:49 | 0:47:53 | |
of Wales, with outbreaks of rain trickling here later in the day. | 0:47:53 | 0:47:57 | |
For Northern Ireland it looks like a pretty soggy afternoon. Again it | 0:47:57 | 0:48:01 | |
will be blustery. The winds in western Scotland will get very | 0:48:01 | 0:48:05 | |
gusty indeed, possibly around the Western Isles, touching 60 miles an | 0:48:05 | 0:48:09 | |
hour. Much of eastern Scotland will stay dry. The wet and windy weather | 0:48:10 | 0:48:15 | |
swings through. Thursday turns colder with showers. Those showers | 0:48:15 | 0:48:18 | |
are likely to turn increasingly wintry no Northern Ireland on | 0:48:18 | 0:48:21 | |
Thursday morning. Further south the showers on Thursday will be of rain. | 0:48:21 | 0:48:25 | |
There could be hail mixed in at times. There will be bright and | 0:48:25 | 0:48:29 | |
sunny spells, expect showers on Thursday. Early on there will be | 0:48:29 | 0:48:32 |