17/02/2012 Newsnight

They said the single currency would bring Europe together. Instead for

the past two years it has threatened to tear it aparts. And

nowhere does the dream of Europe look more thread bear this week

than in Greece. Paul Mason watches up -- as they clean up after the

last riots and brace themselves for the next one. What is it like to

live inside of a failed experiment no-one knows how to fix. Greece

maybe faces a decade of austerity. Few believe the plan will work. If

the centre can't hold, what or who will take its place? I don't think

it will be non-violent government from the left. It's going to be a

civil war. Two writers and two economists talk about the way

Greece is now. How it has been changed by the crisis and what the

Greek tragedy is doing to hopes of ever closer integration in Europe.

Also tonight, the Home Secretary is so keen to deport Abu Qatada she's

to fly to Jordan personally to negotiate. Is there any point?

Good evening. World stock markets rose to their highest level since

the summer today on the hopes a much anticipated Greek debt deal

may get off the ground. The arrangement was investors who

brought -- bought debt after the crisis would get a third of their

money back, rather than none. In Greece another human whraigs --

humiliation as thieves got through the gates of the Olympia museum to

escape with acparticular quits. Paul Mason got inside, closer, to

see what the Greek tragedy feels like from the inside. We have to

deal with the latest. What about this deal. A single moment when

they managed to steal the acparticularies, it feels less safe

than Cairo. In the last five days there has been a major wobble by

the European Union, and the Germans and the Dutch. The question of

issue does the European Union give Greece �130 billion new money and

write off the debts. It's being presented we need more conditions

to make sure they do it. They listed the conditions, whatever

happens in the elections they will implement the plan. They have to

come up with 325 million, further cuts in the minimum wage, and they

have done it. While they were doing t the tone has changed above all

from Germany and the Netherlands. Mr Shueblshueblshuebl -- Wolfgang

Schaeuble saying even if they do it, they better default. There's only

two weeks to do it. March 20th is the cut-off date Greece goes bust

unless it can borrow a new 14 billion loan. That tone change, the

manifesto, the people in Athens can feel it. They have been reacting to

it. It nearly did fall apart yesterday. It has come back on

track. The markets have risen. feels like there's a lot to do in a

short time. Let's assume the many pieces come together, when it comes

to the narrow question in the next few weeks. What is the plan after

that, do you get the sense the Greeks or anybody else has a plan

for what happens next? What it would need any economics textbook

of the right and centre or left would say you have to codge bien

the austerity with structural reconstruction. You need

politicians to do it. If Brussels is going to design it, they are say

"yes" to that "no" to that, if Brussels is going to decide it and

foist it on you, you need a decisive leadership. They haven't

got one now. They have a coalition government that has fallen apart.

Mr Wolfgang Schaeuble said they will not get a government. It will

be better if they have no politicians running Greece. There's

a third force, the Greek people. They increasingly want a say in it

all. There's going to be a civil war.

There is a revolution against the government.

People say if they continue of this, we have to guy Kalashnikov. The EU

demanded austerity. The Greek Parliament voted for. It The

streets erupted. In the aftermath Greeks were stunned. It's not the

scale of the violence and destruction but the scale of the

unsefrt. Nobody knows how the economy can be rebuilt and the

politics are fragmenting. In a normal crisis a decisive vote in

Parliament, a massive riot and the torching of 17 buildings might

bring catharsis. This is no normal crisis. Greece faces maybe a decade

of austerity. Few among the political political class believe

the plan will work. It seems to many Greeks the more austerity and

chaos they inflict on themselves, the more the big powers of Europe

ask for. In the gritty streets this port

district they know what it means when you make one in five people

unemployed and cut health spending and slash the minimum wage.

This clinic run by volunteer doctors and nurses was originally

set up to treat migrants. Now one in three patients are Greeks. Like

this woman, a cleaner who has lost her job. TRANSLATION: I'm here to

get food and vaccinations for my children. Why can't you access the

Greek main health service? We're not insured. My husband doesn't

work and I don't work. -- work. In the latest round of austerity the

government has locked -- knocked another billion off the medicine

budget. Incomes are collapsing. If you are poor you have the same

problems regardless if you come from Africa or Asia or a Greek

citizen. For our organisation it's a whole new phenomenon to have

Greeks. If the past these people could struggle for their daily life.

If they had problems, but they could manage it. Now the burden has

become more. It's more difficult for them. If in the past it was

difficult for them to find a job now it's impossible. I'm afraid

that with the crisis, the phenomenon will become worse.

the crisis deepens, the weakest and the poorest suffer. Nowhere more so

than those not supposed to be in Greece at all. This the ferry port

that links Greece to Western Europe. On the seafront hundreds of illegal

migrants live in this shattered factory. I'm taken in by an

activity by a local NGO. The migrants got here because the

government cut backs have made the Greek border forous. How is it to

get interest Greece? Too easy. The border is not closed. It's open.

They survive on charity. They receive no assistance at all from

the Greek state. As the economy has collapsed so too is sympathy for

the migrants. This is not Europe. I used to live London. This no look

like Europe. The police can hit you. The people can swear you for no

reason. The people hit us like animal. This man a graduate from da

four is headed for London. He can't wait to see the back of Greece. How

long have you been in this factory? I have six months and three months

in the train. Because the police forced us to the leave the train.

We came to the abandoned factory. I have six months here. Do you think

the economic crisis has made the situation for migrants worse?

we're going to the markets... give you food and some money.

There's less now? Now the situation is changing because of the economic

crisis. They drink from a pipe in the ground. Some have died from

fires lit to keep one. It's shocking to see it in a continent

that once prided into on a social model. The crisis has turned so

much of Greece upside down. For Greek youth, the situation too

looks dire. 50% of those under 24 are unemployed. Among them the

extremes of politics are growing. In a bar run by one of the far left

groups I meet the people who have got together to feed and clothe the

migrants. None is a member of a left party. All intend to vote for

one. All have been participants in disorderly protest. There's no

future for us. Generally there's no future. We can't dream or live.

This is a disaster. I've been hearing young Greek people say that

to me for three years. What do you do about it? We're fighting and

trying to convince people to make them understand that the crisis is

a result of the capitalist system. Do you seriously think there could

be a left wing government in Greece? I don't think it will a

non-violent government from the left. It will be a civil war.

carpenter, the teacher, the engineer, the social worker...

These are professional people. The ideas they are expousing have

become commonplace. What about work? If there's no work there's a

revolution against the government. The Greek left, the communists, and

the Ecologists have a combined poll rating of 43.5%. This country

always had a strong left wing. Now it's strong enough to have their

own TV studios and if there's an election a previously unthinkable

prospect. We're talking about a new bloc of forces which have their

internal differences but on the other hand agree on the rejection

of the memory dumb and the suffering policy of austerity.

you think this forces could propose a government? They must put asides

their differences and after the next election yes form a new block

of power. In truth the left is probably too splintered to attempt

to form a government. But the despair call for some to call for

elections to postponed. If we have elections so sure, we will have it

in a few months and we can kiss the country and possibly the euro

goodbye. The backbone of the Greek capital is the small form. On here,

the business plan is just to survive. Now they face new taxes,

endemic corruption, rising crime and the owner detects a nostalgia

among these peers for the days of military rule. Old people will be

thinking about the military government. For us it's finished.

But they have one right, one right, they did stole even one penny.

didn't steal a penny? Even one of those which is still alive he lives

in one room. Places like this should be the bedrock of support

for the centre right. They're not. I'm talking always to my children.

I say to my children, do not nothing but you don't go just for

vote or go for vote, just say you're are bastards. Just in 10,000

we come out of Europe, that the Greek people... Spoil your vote.

You don't trust any of them? No-one. Do you think democracy will

survive? We like to believe it will survive. We like to believe 6789 --

believe. F but the people say if they continue of this we have to

buy Kalashnikov. There are still days when the sun shines and the

old lifestyle rekindles and people forget their worries. For the

political class that has tried to guide Greece through the mess

there's deep concern. If we're not seriously looking at the

repercussions we may end up Russia of the early 90. The very, very

high poverty line. Russia in the mid90's had a poverty line higher

than in the communist period. it had crooks running the country.

It had crooks running the country. Whatever happens next week, those

remain the stakes. And they are high. I'm joined now by Lord Lamont

former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Will Hutton and Maria Margaronis

who was in Athens last week and the author Louis De Bernieres who has

described his relationship with the country as one of love and

difficulty exach ration and pleasure. You were in Greece

recently. Watching the film does it chime with the feeling you had

there? Completely. What you can't get from the film is how pervasive

the feeling is. If you walk through the formerly wealthy areas are

closed or having sales of 50%. You see elderly Greeks looking for

something to eat in the streets. There are junkies shooting up.

There are the migrants with their scrap metal to sell. The thing that

wasn't in the film the migrants can't leave Greece. The borders to

exit are closed for them. They have to asking for - ask for asylum. It

has caused incredible social tepblgss, and you don't feel how it

gets under your skin. How keen even more middle class people though

they may have taken a 30% salary cut in the public sector or may

feel in danger of losing their jobs in the private sector, 60,000

businesses have closed since the summer, live all the time with the

uncertainty, are we going to default or not. People -- many have

stopped watching the news, thing was the loss of the centre

ground in politics, and what I was saying telling his children not to

vote for anybody, to spoil their ballots. What does it mean for

Greece. For decades Greece was polarised politically between left

and right. In the last ten years it seemed a centre was developing. It

looks to me the terrible economic conditions is probably going to

force the people from the centre to the left. I think People

unestimated at the beginning of the crisis that it's a fragile

democracy. There are deep splits in Greek society. The splits of the

civil war have never healed. There were 30 years when the left were

essentially outlawed. Plane returned in the form of the

Socialist Party. Both the main political parties keep their people

happy through the client system. Distributed money for votes. Now

people are moving to the left. I thought the gentlemen was

optimistic making a left block. The Communist Party will never work

with anybody else. There's a movement of the far right, a street

fighting fascist party is on the verge of getting representation in

Parliament. There was a historical parallel mentioned in the film of

Russia in the 90's, and the mayhem you had there and what happened

politically when the old system had fallen apart. You were Chancellor

of of the Exchequer in some of that time. Do you think it's a relevant

parallel what happened in the former Soviet Union? Not really,

the transition from communist to a free market economy was something

totally different. This is a tragic situation. The root cause is Greece

should never have been allowed in the euro in the first place. There

are no easy choices. No soft option. If one is taking a medium term view

my hunch is Greece would be better off recognising the reality and

getting out of the euro. That will pose all sorts of problems. It will

be the better option for this reason: Even if by some miracle and

it would be a miracle Greece achieved everything asked of it it

will still only get down to a level of debt higher than that of Italy

in the year 2020 and they would be asked in 2020 for a continuation of

this. Frankly I think that's utterly impractical. Can they say

in? It's a 64,000 euro question. They have forked out a lot more

than that. If they leave it will be a cataclysmic event. The minute

Greece would leave it will be a run on Greek banks. That's obvious. Any

Portuguese citizen, and Irish citizen, and maybe Spanish citizens

would take the same view. There will be bank deposits across the

softer parts of the eurozone. There will be a flight to the triple A

countries. Germany in particular. It would be beyond the capacity of

the European Central Bank to finance. You will get massive

write-downs. And a domino effects. And one of the countries would

severely affected would be us. You're talking about the effect

outside, or Greeks is it worse than what they are going flu now?

Greece it would be hyperinflation. And the great hyperinflations, in

Germany in the 1920's, in China in 1940's are always followed by cats

milk -- cats clis milk political events. Bloody awful in and out.

Isn't it starting to look worse? It's impossible for them to keep

going on this austerity for something like 12 years. Unr

utterly unthinkable. What skp will says it will have repercussions in

other parts of the eurozone. It's notable the German government is

changing its attitude. Mr Schaeuble seems to be more of the view it

will be better if Greece gets out. Preparations are being made. Fire

walls are put around Portugal and Spain. The ECB can do a lot. When

it comes to the people of Greece, leaving the euro would be difficult

for them. The parallel is what happened to Argentina when it broke

its link with the clar. -- dollar. You had a very, very uncomfortable

ferred -- period they were better and they are benefitting today.

is it the same thing than a currency peg or did it mean

something more than that for the Greeks? Joining the European Union

for the Greeks was a right of package. It's saying we're grown up

and one of the big boys and equals to the European nations -- rite of

passage. They haven't got the European Union they wanted. It's

been an enormous disappointment. Far more fraught and -- than they

expected. If the Greeks left the euro they could charge their own

interest rates to suit their own economy. And they could devalue the

drachma when they have to. When I was there in the last year or, so

people wanted to stay. People want two things. People don't want to

leave... Although the last poll said 48% want to leave the euro.

Fundamentally Greeks want to say in Europe but don't want the austerity

measures. We're talking as they they have the only opbgss. The way

things play out it seems to be. But we have to think of the Europe we

want. Someone who believes firmly in the European project, are you

not worried all the associations with European integration, we need

more European integration, if we will make the eurozone work, all of

this has gone against this. People associate it with university. Don't

you worry about what it does? Angela Merkel will cough up the

money on Monday. I think that's what the markets are saying. It

will come in trafrpblgz. The left in Greece haven't got an

alternative programme. For the next month or so it will hold. Who can

tell. Once you have got some kind of settlement with Greece, you have

the Europeans have got to start talking about growth and employment.

What is happening in France with Allond ahead in the French polls,

and determined not to have this kind of austerity and trying to

define a fresh economic policy for Europe is going to be the big story.

In 20 years' time what is Greece going to look like, and the

European Union? There's no way to know. I talk to friends in Greece

and what -- say what is going to happen next. They have no idea. I

think your point of -- of Europe is a good one. And not have

unemployment now. The problem is larger than Greece. The mistake in

debate is equating the euro with Europe. I think Europe is something

separate from the euro. You can easily redefine the contures of the

eurozone and maintain Europe. When Mrs Merkel says the euro is Europe,

I think that's not the reality. For Germans it's tied up with their

history and identity. It would be possible to have the eurozone with

a narrower group of countries and operating better. I think it will

be better for everyone in Europe. Do you think it was doomed. Do you

think they overreached themselves and they have to step back. I agree

they weren't eligible to come into the euro in the first place. Their

political culture was too corrupt. And what Maria... Was rife. I don't

think you can put together incompatible countrys and economies

and run them if they are the same. It's not a question of political

culture but economic development. Greece emerged from a dictatorship

in 19... They had ra lot to fix. When Greece started to

industrialise, it hit globalisation and the oil crisis. The textile

factories moved to Bulgaria and elsewhere. There are a lot of other

reasons why Greece is in trouble. The political system bears blame

too. In a minute we will be looking at what is going to happen to Abu

Qatada. First to Martha in Glasgow. We are ranging far and wide tonight.

New York -- Extremely loud and incredibly close, and Lucien frued

and the many worlds of Martin Skrbgs corsese. Theresa May says

she will travel to Jordan to try to strike a deal over Abu Qatada. Mrs

May said she would continue where James Brokenshire left off in his

talks this week. James Brokenshire is coming back. Why is she heading

off there? What will she achieve. To continue the work she has done.

The stumbling block, the reason the Strasbourg court won't allow his

deportation is they don't believe evidence obtained by torture won't

be used. Brokenshire tried to get an undertaking that would be the

case. He has Gott a sufficient undertaking. Theresa May has gone

there to get a further undertaking. It is difficult. It is in the words

of some Jordanians to debase themselves in the face of the court

of Strasbourg, where they say they don't use these strategies.

there any chance at all we're going to see Abu Qatada headed on a

plane? That would be the dream scenario in terms of the Home

Office. There's another scenario. Even if they get the undertakings

that would staff the judges in Strasbourg it will take a year to

get rid of him. They are focused on making sure they can get him back

into prison if there's a realistic chance of him being deported. They

can then go back to the judge and there's a realistic chance please

put him back in prison. One paper, more about mrbd -- Murdoch. That's