Browse content similar to 13/03/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Take a leap into the future with Newsnight. The budget next week | :00:07. | :00:11. | |
will be firefighting today's problems, but we are facing a | :00:11. | :00:14. | |
monumental change in our society in the next 20 years, with a black | :00:14. | :00:18. | |
hole looming which is deeper than we ever imagined. So tonight, | :00:18. | :00:25. | |
saying the unsayable, on health, welfare, pensions, entitlements, | :00:25. | :00:28. | |
personal responsibility, can we get ourselves out of trouble before the | :00:28. | :00:32. | |
crisis hits. We know our children will probably | :00:32. | :00:36. | |
grow up to be poorer than us, what we probably didn't realise is they | :00:36. | :00:39. | |
could be living in a state that's gone bankrupt. | :00:39. | :00:44. | |
Do our politicians really know how bad it might get? Would any of them | :00:44. | :00:47. | |
dare admit it? Four economic brains, including a | :00:47. | :00:51. | |
former Chancellor, and a leading trade unionist, explore how we can | :00:51. | :00:57. | |
address the bigger black hole. Former News of the World editor, | :00:57. | :01:01. | |
Rebekah Brooks, is arrested again, this time along with her husband. | :01:01. | :01:04. | |
How can an inquiry into press freedom and a criminal | :01:04. | :01:09. | |
investigation run at the same time. Also tonight: | :01:09. | :01:15. | |
The first broadcast interview with the wunder kind, who became the | :01:15. | :01:18. | |
youngest-ever principal dancer at the Royal Ballet aged 19 and then | :01:18. | :01:23. | |
suddenly quit, why? I felt like the artist of me was dying a bit. If | :01:23. | :01:27. | |
you don't explore these things the artist dies, if you don't give him | :01:27. | :01:37. | |
:01:37. | :01:40. | ||
a freedom. The coalition is apparently bickering over next | :01:40. | :01:43. | |
week's budget, that is rather like fiddling while Rome burns, even the | :01:43. | :01:47. | |
Government's own figures say Britain is in danger of | :01:47. | :01:50. | |
disappearing down a bigger black hole than we ever imagined. So out | :01:50. | :01:54. | |
of kilter are the revenue and spending projections, that by 2050 | :01:54. | :01:58. | |
we could be well and truly bust, more people living longer, fewer | :01:58. | :02:04. | |
people paying for them, resources dwindling, the welfare bill half of | :02:04. | :02:08. | |
public spending, and it goes on, worried yet? You should be. In the | :02:08. | :02:13. | |
last half hour the Government has come up with one money-making | :02:13. | :02:16. | |
wheeze, 100-year bonds. First theic about pure with Paul | :02:16. | :02:19. | |
Mason. This is the graph that has defined | :02:19. | :02:22. | |
British politics for the past three years and will go on defining it | :02:22. | :02:28. | |
for years to come. The size of the national debt, versus GDP. Until | :02:28. | :02:32. | |
the Lehman crisis it was relatively stable and projected to remain | :02:32. | :02:37. | |
there, below 50% of GDP well into the future, with the financial | :02:37. | :02:40. | |
crisis, the debt started to rocket, only the austerity measures | :02:40. | :02:45. | |
announced first by Labour, and then by the coalition, make this | :02:45. | :02:50. | |
projection possible. That debt peeks around 2015 and, because of | :02:50. | :02:52. | |
the biggest austerity programme since the war, right at the | :02:52. | :02:56. | |
beginning there, begins to fall back, getting to, if we want it to | :02:56. | :03:01. | |
be, zero around 2050. Now the risks to that projection are large. It | :03:01. | :03:05. | |
relies on growth recovering, and the cuts actually working, but here | :03:05. | :03:09. | |
is the hard part, the projection does not take account of population | :03:09. | :03:14. | |
change. The impact of ageing on spending, on the tax base, and on | :03:14. | :03:18. | |
pension costs. Now here is what happens when you do factor in the | :03:18. | :03:23. | |
costs of an ageing population. The debt does not fall back, like we | :03:23. | :03:29. | |
saw, but it actually just dips after 2016 down to 60% of GDP and | :03:30. | :03:36. | |
rockets up to above 100% of GDP by the 2050s, this is a Government | :03:36. | :03:42. | |
graph showing what happens, even if George Osborne's austerity package, | :03:42. | :03:46. | |
agreed until 2017 actually happens. Why? The Government's experts point | :03:46. | :03:51. | |
to spending as the main problem. Ageing will increase the demand for | :03:51. | :03:55. | |
healthcare to 10% of GDP, adding a third to the cost of state pensions, | :03:55. | :03:59. | |
and the costs of social care will nearly double. By now you will be | :03:59. | :04:04. | |
asking what can we do about it. For economists the answers lie not at | :04:04. | :04:09. | |
the level of detail, but four basic directions, there could be a lot | :04:09. | :04:14. | |
more austerity, so shrink the state, or a lot more growth. In its | :04:14. | :04:19. | |
Keynsian form, this remedy might mean a switch to protectionism, or | :04:19. | :04:24. | |
more state intervention. With the Government floating the idea of a | :04:25. | :04:27. | |
100-year bond, so you lend your money forever to the Government, | :04:27. | :04:32. | |
minds are folk uss caned on using inflation to erode the value -- | :04:32. | :04:36. | |
focused on using inflation to erode the value of savings, and you look | :04:36. | :04:39. | |
at where people could save their money, that is called financial | :04:40. | :04:44. | |
repression. As we are always reminded by the newspapers, there | :04:44. | :04:48. | |
is plain old default like Greece just did. It is unlikely any of | :04:48. | :04:51. | |
these options will be acceptable to the political mainstream now. But | :04:51. | :04:54. | |
the strategic debate should be starting somewhere, soon, shouldn't | :04:54. | :04:57. | |
it, Kirsty? We will discuss that tonight, it | :04:57. | :05:01. | |
seems pretty stark. But why aren't our politicians even really talking | :05:01. | :05:11. | |
:05:11. | :05:14. | ||
about it? Where are their big ideas. Here is our political editor. | :05:14. | :05:17. | |
Politics likes dramatic metaphors, a Government budget has a black | :05:17. | :05:21. | |
hole, except in a dictionary definition it is usually nothing of | :05:21. | :05:25. | |
the sort. A black hole is a void that sucks stuff in, there is no | :05:25. | :05:30. | |
return. Look toe the future of the UK's | :05:30. | :05:33. | |
public finance -- look to the future of the UK's public finances | :05:33. | :05:37. | |
and this becomes more true. The official forecastsers show on the | :05:37. | :05:41. | |
horizon the cost of the state goes right up, and the means to pay | :05:41. | :05:46. | |
shrinks, money gets sucked in. Now that is a black hole. When we talk | :05:46. | :05:50. | |
about the debt and deficit right now, we are only in the foot hills | :05:50. | :05:54. | |
of a much larger debate about the public finances. The Institute for | :05:54. | :05:56. | |
Fiscal Studies thinks on current costs the amount we will be | :05:56. | :06:00. | |
spending on health and pensions will go up by as much as 5% of | :06:00. | :06:02. | |
national income. In other calculation they have done, they | :06:02. | :06:10. | |
think, all in, we will be looking to find an extra �100 billion, per | :06:10. | :06:14. | |
year, for a generation. Everything we see today is the biggest | :06:14. | :06:17. | |
challenge any Government has faced, which is our deficit, any progress | :06:17. | :06:23. | |
we make today is completely overridden by this problem. | :06:23. | :06:29. | |
It is very hard always to cut out services. Because if the politician | :06:29. | :06:34. | |
says to you, what can you cut out, you can always show that it is very | :06:34. | :06:40. | |
difficult to cut anything out. Government's own Office for Budget | :06:40. | :06:44. | |
Responsibility shows that by 2060 the cost of social care for the | :06:44. | :06:49. | |
elderly, state pensions and the NHS will go up by 5.4%, some streams of | :06:49. | :06:54. | |
revenue will have been turned off. North Sea oil will be much | :06:54. | :06:58. | |
diminished, so too fuel duty, as cars get more efficient, we will | :06:58. | :07:02. | |
all be drinking and smoking less. The tax base will be up to 2% lower | :07:02. | :07:06. | |
over the next 20 years, a small number, but a massive loss of | :07:06. | :07:10. | |
Government revenue. There will be, of course, be | :07:10. | :07:13. | |
different ideas for eradicating the black hole, from opposite ends of | :07:13. | :07:18. | |
the political spectrum. Labour also have to think about | :07:18. | :07:21. | |
which public services to prioritise, making difficult choices about | :07:21. | :07:25. | |
which things first, and have a debate about the tax base, | :07:25. | :07:28. | |
stragically thinking how do you get a broad resilient tax base in the | :07:28. | :07:33. | |
future. For the Conservatives it is much easier, the predill Lynx will | :07:33. | :07:38. | |
be to shrink where they can, and cut it to the core, stop cutting | :07:38. | :07:41. | |
things the market will provide. They will say we will tax you less | :07:41. | :07:46. | |
and you use your money to spend on services. Pensions are one part of | :07:46. | :07:51. | |
the problem. In 2011, 17% of the population were over the age of 65, | :07:51. | :08:01. | |
:08:01. | :08:08. | ||
and pensions cost the state 5.5% of The Treasury didn't support a | :08:08. | :08:10. | |
recent reinstatement of a link between earnings and pensions | :08:10. | :08:14. | |
because of this. What can be done about this? You start again on | :08:14. | :08:17. | |
pensions, you accept that your policy to increase the state | :08:17. | :08:22. | |
pension in line with earnings is going to blow all of your deficit | :08:22. | :08:25. | |
plans out of the water in years to come. You look again at that. | :08:25. | :08:29. | |
Pensions are the big part of it, but others will go much further, | :08:29. | :08:34. | |
taking away benefits for this group as well. The grey vote tends to | :08:34. | :08:38. | |
vote Conservative more than Labour, and there will come a point when | :08:38. | :08:43. | |
these generational injustices can no longer be defended, the older | :08:43. | :08:46. | |
people keep everything and younger people don't get anything like as | :08:46. | :08:50. | |
much. Then the bulk of the problem, put to side the cost of ageing and | :08:50. | :08:55. | |
in 2015 health spending will be 7% of national income. But by 2060 it | :08:55. | :09:00. | |
could be as much as 15%. Many think this will force change. I love the | :09:00. | :09:05. | |
NHS, I want to protect and defend the NHS, but it will have to wash | :09:05. | :09:09. | |
its face. This frames very nicely this debate we are having about the | :09:09. | :09:13. | |
Health and Social Care Bill, which says we are facing enormous upward | :09:13. | :09:16. | |
pressure on these incredible national assets, in terms of | :09:16. | :09:19. | |
additional cost, we have to make sure money is being spent and | :09:19. | :09:23. | |
delivered to the frontline. In the face of this kind of support for | :09:23. | :09:25. | |
the NHS from Conservatives, it is some in the Labour Party who are | :09:25. | :09:29. | |
thinking of going further. They wonder whether the entire funding | :09:29. | :09:33. | |
of the welfare state on all services, not just the NHS, needs | :09:33. | :09:36. | |
to change. I think you have to bring in a form of extra charging | :09:36. | :09:40. | |
for people who use and benefit from the services. In most cases both | :09:40. | :09:44. | |
the society as a whole, and the individual user benefit from a | :09:44. | :09:48. | |
service. But the question is, if the user isn't paying, then the | :09:48. | :09:53. | |
state can't afford to keep going at the full level. Take the example of | :09:53. | :09:56. | |
motorway tolls, for example, many countries charge tolls to go on | :09:56. | :09:59. | |
motorways, because the state benefits from having a good | :09:59. | :10:03. | |
motorway system, so do the lorry drivers and cars who use it. So, we | :10:03. | :10:06. | |
have been talking about spending, there are those who want to talk | :10:06. | :10:11. | |
about tax rises too? You look at VAT, and you say you won't accept | :10:11. | :10:15. | |
�40 billion lost a year because of the exemptions in VAT like food, so | :10:15. | :10:20. | |
you look at that. You also say that this problem does not get smaller, | :10:20. | :10:25. | |
if you put it off, it gets bigger. There is, of course, the | :10:25. | :10:28. | |
possibility that the black hole forecast is wrong, if the | :10:28. | :10:32. | |
Government can get the economy going again, the problem recedes. | :10:32. | :10:37. | |
Politicians get elected for five- year terms, but are increasingly | :10:37. | :10:40. | |
facing 50-year problems. They may want to set a course and stick to | :10:40. | :10:44. | |
it, but at the next election, unpopular ideas get tested. | :10:44. | :10:47. | |
Politicians are always understandably wanting to get a | :10:47. | :10:50. | |
quart out of a pintpot, they want better public services, the public | :10:50. | :10:54. | |
want better public service, but they don't want to pay any more tax, | :10:54. | :10:57. | |
Governments want to keep the tax down. There is always this pressure, | :10:57. | :11:02. | |
and it takes the form of wanting the Civil Service, in particular, | :11:02. | :11:06. | |
to become more and more efficient. That is the pressure for better | :11:06. | :11:09. | |
management in the Civil Service. At the same time regulation increases, | :11:09. | :11:15. | |
and so it is always very difficult to get all these things reconciled. | :11:15. | :11:21. | |
Of course, the difference geen the mystical laws of the universe -- | :11:21. | :11:26. | |
between the fiscal laws of the universe, is we can better manage | :11:26. | :11:31. | |
the from whom and who it is divided up, the debate will hone how we | :11:31. | :11:36. | |
will do it. We will hear more later to discuss the growing black hole. | :11:36. | :11:42. | |
I'm joined bit former Chancellor, Lord Lawson, Lord Skidelsky, the | :11:42. | :11:45. | |
head of the Economic and Social Affairs of the Trades Union | :11:45. | :11:48. | |
Congress, Nicola Smith, and Ruth Porter of the Institute for | :11:48. | :11:50. | |
Economic affairs. Lord Lawson, is this the moment for the Government | :11:50. | :11:54. | |
to re-think what it can do for us, and for us to think what the | :11:54. | :11:57. | |
Government should do for us? Your disaster scenario may or may not | :11:57. | :12:02. | |
prove the case, nobody knows. It is impossible to do these sorts of | :12:02. | :12:04. | |
predictions. Nevertheless it is right to be cautious. It could | :12:04. | :12:08. | |
happen like that, and so I do think that the Government is absolutely | :12:08. | :12:14. | |
right now to be engaged in major fiscal consolidation, reducing the | :12:14. | :12:19. | |
deficit, because in addition to the immediate crisis, which they | :12:19. | :12:25. | |
inherited, there is this long-term problem. It is the long-term | :12:25. | :12:29. | |
problem that we are addressing. How much you want might to alleviate | :12:29. | :12:34. | |
problems today, the fact is, that demographics will rule out a lot of | :12:34. | :12:41. | |
options, won't they? Whatever the crisis is, in the long-term, in the | :12:41. | :12:45. | |
long-term structure of these services we have been talking about, | :12:45. | :12:49. | |
it will be much easier to manage if we get some growth in the economy. | :12:49. | :12:53. | |
It won't solve all of them, you will still need reforms, but growth | :12:53. | :12:57. | |
is an essential, necessary condition. And my criticism of | :12:57. | :13:02. | |
what's happening now, is that there is no growth policy. The debt | :13:02. | :13:05. | |
versus growth scenario isn't playing out well at the moment? | :13:05. | :13:08. | |
wouldn't say it was debt versus growth, I would say growth is a way | :13:09. | :13:14. | |
of reducing the debt in the long- term. We need to look at the | :13:14. | :13:17. | |
context here, what is interesting about the current situation is we | :13:17. | :13:20. | |
are already in an unsustainable area, so the Government's spending | :13:20. | :13:25. | |
more than 50% of GDP, and more than half of that is going on welfare at | :13:25. | :13:28. | |
the moment. If you then factor in the demographic changes, and you | :13:28. | :13:33. | |
fast forward, by the time you get to say, if you take 2030, you know, | :13:33. | :13:37. | |
for the average girl, who is born that year, her life expectancy, | :13:37. | :13:41. | |
will be 95, and you factor in the additional costs and the strains | :13:41. | :13:45. | |
which that is going to put on our health spending and state pensions, | :13:45. | :13:51. | |
and it is unsustainable. There will be radical welfare reform, that is | :13:51. | :13:57. | |
what it is needed, actuarillay that is what is needed? I disagree with | :13:57. | :14:00. | |
the way the situation was presented, there will be challenges for the | :14:00. | :14:06. | |
public finances, but as you said, this is by no means a zero sum game. | :14:06. | :14:09. | |
We have huge up certainties forecast, based on firstly how many | :14:09. | :14:13. | |
people we have moving into work, and how productive our economy is, | :14:13. | :14:17. | |
and we know how much revenue we choose to raise. The money from | :14:17. | :14:20. | |
North Sea oil will run out, people are living longer who will need | :14:21. | :14:24. | |
more social care, who will make more demands on the state pension, | :14:24. | :14:30. | |
and we are not going to be able to pay? There is clearly big | :14:30. | :14:34. | |
demographic challenges, growth is by no means a zero sum game. There | :14:34. | :14:37. | |
are huge opportunities going forward. Over the last 30 years the | :14:37. | :14:41. | |
UK's investment into the economy has been the lowest in the G7, if | :14:41. | :14:45. | |
we turn it around we have real opportunities to grow the economy | :14:45. | :14:47. | |
going forward. The Government should accrue debt, that is the | :14:47. | :14:51. | |
only way to do it? The only way to get sustainable public finances in | :14:51. | :14:54. | |
the long-term is to secure stronger growth for the long-term going | :14:54. | :14:57. | |
forward. We need to be ambitious about becoming the strongest | :14:57. | :15:04. | |
competitor in green economies across the world The realities is | :15:04. | :15:07. | |
slower growth? This is a well known road to disaster, to assume you | :15:07. | :15:11. | |
will get greater growth. We would all like to see it. But to assume | :15:11. | :15:15. | |
you will get greater growth and allow public expenditure plans to | :15:15. | :15:18. | |
be based on that, and then of course, if you don't get the growth, | :15:18. | :15:24. | |
and you might not, then the disaster comes. There is plenty to | :15:24. | :15:27. | |
been to. The ageing of the population, you have focused on | :15:27. | :15:32. | |
that particularly, rightly, the age of retirement has got to go | :15:32. | :15:37. | |
substantially higher, I'm 80 and still working. How old are you? | :15:37. | :15:42. | |
You are both still working. still working. I'm very active. | :15:42. | :15:46. | |
are both still working, do you claim your winter fuel allowance? | :15:46. | :15:50. | |
Of course. Do you claim your winter fuel allowance? Yes, I think I do. | :15:51. | :16:00. | |
But I don't claim my old age pension. But anyhow, the age of the | :16:00. | :16:04. | |
Government retirement is cien he ised but not nearly -- increased | :16:04. | :16:08. | |
but nearly enough. In erpls it of health, because obviously -- in | :16:08. | :16:13. | |
terms of health, obvious low, increasingly a an older population | :16:13. | :16:17. | |
makes more demands, you have to have more charging. | :16:17. | :16:22. | |
On this question of retirement, Nicola, the idea that people are | :16:22. | :16:27. | |
going to retire successively at 66, 68.5, that is just tinkering, | :16:28. | :16:32. | |
people are healthy, they are able to contribute to society, we should | :16:32. | :16:37. | |
be retiring at 70? The idea of removing the state pension from | :16:37. | :16:41. | |
people, at a higher age than they have at the moment is fundamentally | :16:41. | :16:46. | |
unfair and misguided. Why? When we are talking about retirement age, | :16:46. | :16:49. | |
thats not attached to the state pension. When you move the state | :16:49. | :16:54. | |
pension higher, you deny people on the lowest incomes all their life | :16:54. | :16:58. | |
and a lower life expectancy, a larger proportion of their state | :16:59. | :17:02. | |
pension. It is burying our heads in the sand, what we need to be | :17:02. | :17:05. | |
actually doing, even looking at far more radical solutions, which are | :17:05. | :17:08. | |
more long-term, and saying we need flexibility. Different people will | :17:09. | :17:14. | |
want to retire at different ages, we could look at as an alternative, | :17:14. | :17:19. | |
fadesing out the state pension and introducing compulsory saving. | :17:19. | :17:25. | |
should make it financially possible for people to choose their age of | :17:25. | :17:28. | |
retirement and not to be penaliseded if they go on working. | :17:28. | :17:31. | |
We have all been assuming that there is a simple tax limit, which | :17:31. | :17:35. | |
is roughly what we have got. In fact, people now want to reduce the | :17:35. | :17:39. | |
top rate. We can increase taxes. That is an option. I'm not saying | :17:39. | :17:46. | |
it is a politically acceptable option, but an economic option. | :17:46. | :17:51. | |
want to talk about tax, but if you look at health, social care, state | :17:51. | :17:57. | |
pension, half public spending goes on all these, universal ity of | :17:57. | :18:01. | |
contributions, we need to end it, perhaps you could opt out of some | :18:01. | :18:05. | |
if you are not using the state provision? The level of spending on | :18:05. | :18:09. | |
social security has remained pretty much constant as a proportion of | :18:09. | :18:13. | |
GDP since the formation of the modern welfare state. It is not | :18:13. | :18:16. | |
rising more quickly than it has been. The period where it was | :18:16. | :18:22. | |
rising more slowly was when we had higher employment growth which was | :18:22. | :18:26. | |
when the social security went down. �50 more has been spent on social | :18:26. | :18:30. | |
security, the way to get social security spending down is to get | :18:30. | :18:37. | |
more people into work. Obviously there is that relationship, I mean, | :18:37. | :18:40. | |
the fuller the employment of the economy, on the whole, the smaller | :18:40. | :18:45. | |
the bills for unemployment benefit and other kinds of benefit. That | :18:45. | :18:49. | |
doesn't affect the main spending items for economic growth, which | :18:49. | :18:53. | |
are health, education. Let's talk about health particularly. The | :18:53. | :18:56. | |
exponential rise of that, because there are new treatments, and | :18:56. | :19:02. | |
people are living longer, people are also attracting at the moment, | :19:02. | :19:05. | |
there are definite issues at the moment about whether people should | :19:05. | :19:09. | |
be taking care of their own health and penalised if they don't. Will | :19:09. | :19:13. | |
we move to a situation where diabetes will rise by 50%, that | :19:13. | :19:19. | |
there will be an onus on people to marshall their own health? If we | :19:19. | :19:22. | |
want access to good quality healthcare and other services we | :19:22. | :19:26. | |
need to move in all these areas, to allowing people to take more | :19:26. | :19:31. | |
responsibility. So we do need to look at things like reducing demand | :19:31. | :19:35. | |
by introing, for example, small charges when you go to A&E -- | :19:35. | :19:40. | |
introducing, for example, small charges when you go to A&E and the | :19:40. | :19:44. | |
GP. What about different doctors and motorway tolls, that people | :19:44. | :19:50. | |
will have to take responsibility for paying for the things they want | :19:50. | :19:56. | |
to have? Charging, there has to be more. There is now less proportion | :19:56. | :20:01. | |
for finance through charges, than when Nye Bevan first set the health | :20:01. | :20:05. | |
service up. It is absolutely absurd. There has to be charges. Charging, | :20:05. | :20:10. | |
and of course the poorest will not have to pay the charges, there will | :20:10. | :20:13. | |
always be a safety net for the poorest. What happens is you will | :20:14. | :20:17. | |
also reduce, to some extent, the demand, if you have charging. You | :20:18. | :20:22. | |
have a double benefit. That will have to come. There is charging or | :20:22. | :20:27. | |
rationing? We know what charging means t means reducing services for | :20:27. | :20:31. | |
people across the economy. People across the UK don't want poor | :20:31. | :20:35. | |
people not able to access healthcare. We don't want the | :20:35. | :20:38. | |
situation in America, people can't move from welfare into work, | :20:38. | :20:43. | |
because they can't afford to lose the free healthcare they get. | :20:43. | :20:47. | |
choices are going to have to be made to save the central elements | :20:47. | :20:57. | |
of the NHS. We will have to move to a different model? We can raise | :20:57. | :21:01. | |
taxes, have charges or better control over people's lifestyles, | :21:01. | :21:03. | |
encourage them to lead healthier lives. Somewhere between those | :21:03. | :21:10. | |
three we are going to find a solution. I don't know in what | :21:10. | :21:13. | |
proportions. What about taxation, coming on to wholesale reform of | :21:13. | :21:18. | |
taxation. We have heard everything from a tycoon tax, a land tax, a | :21:18. | :21:22. | |
mansion tax, that is just tinkering isn't it? We need to look overall | :21:22. | :21:25. | |
at, the point that was made about economic growth, we will not see | :21:25. | :21:30. | |
growth in the economy until we cut the public sector down. Why not? | :21:30. | :21:35. | |
Because we need space for the private sector. We need the room | :21:35. | :21:39. | |
for tax cuts, at the moment we don't have that. Looking at the | :21:39. | :21:42. | |
demographics of it, the Government should be really aim to go get the | :21:42. | :21:46. | |
size of the state down to 30%, that would allow massive tax cuts across | :21:46. | :21:49. | |
the board. Then we would see savings, savings is the key. What | :21:49. | :21:56. | |
happens while you are doing it? can phase it in. Unless we build a | :21:56. | :22:01. | |
savings culture, we won't be able to tackle these problems. The idea | :22:01. | :22:05. | |
of the public sector squeezing out the private sector is ridiculous, | :22:05. | :22:08. | |
the public sector is losing jobs at a higher rate than the private | :22:08. | :22:12. | |
sector is creating them. One private sector is created for every | :22:12. | :22:16. | |
13 public sector jobs lost, and Britain is sitting on surplus of | :22:16. | :22:20. | |
50% of GDP. I don't want to hark back, but we have been through this | :22:20. | :22:28. | |
before. During my time as Chancellor I cut tax rates, I | :22:29. | :22:33. | |
was not a sovereign wealth fund, that would have given us a piggy | :22:33. | :22:37. | |
back? I had tough policy on public spending, we had growth and budget | :22:37. | :22:44. | |
surplus, you can do it. Looking back do you think you would like a | :22:44. | :22:49. | |
sovereign wealth fund like Norway? Norway has a massive North Sea oil | :22:49. | :22:52. | |
and gas industry, which is a huge proportion of its economy. For us | :22:52. | :22:57. | |
it was never more than 5% of the peak. To finish off, on the news | :22:57. | :23:01. | |
tonight that is on the front of the FT? I have a comment on that. | :23:01. | :23:05. | |
are out of time, on the news tonight from one of the planes | :23:05. | :23:07. | |
travelling to America with the Chancellor and the Prime Minister, | :23:07. | :23:12. | |
is they have dreamt up the idea of a 100-year bond, good idea? | :23:12. | :23:16. | |
people are prepared to buy it, why not. Are they prepared to buy it, | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
will they put their faith into it? I don't know if it will happen, we | :23:20. | :23:23. | |
shall see, you test the market. There is a lot of nonsense to be | :23:23. | :23:27. | |
cut out of public spending, if we don't go ahead with high-speed rail, | :23:27. | :23:32. | |
that would be a good start. 100- year bond? We will have to see, it | :23:32. | :23:39. | |
is an attempt to get the yield up of Government debt, but I don't | :23:39. | :23:47. | |
know. I only heard about it a minute ago. | :23:47. | :23:51. | |
Thank you very much, we have been listening to that debate. Any sense | :23:51. | :23:55. | |
of a possible direction of travel, Paul? To recap, the headline news | :23:55. | :23:59. | |
out of the Government's report last year, buried at the back of it, | :23:59. | :24:02. | |
fair enough, is that ageing completely changes the direction of | :24:02. | :24:07. | |
travel, on the debt, even if we do austerity. We end up going bankrupt, | :24:07. | :24:16. | |
some time in the 21st century. What I think if you can get politicians | :24:16. | :24:20. | |
to look five years ahead you are lucky. If you look 50 years ahead, | :24:20. | :24:25. | |
there is a lot of individual policy remedies, and they are not | :24:25. | :24:30. | |
important. What is important is the big levers you can pull. One not | :24:30. | :24:33. | |
explored is migration. The OBR which dreamt up the original graph | :24:33. | :24:37. | |
we showed, that assumed that migration falls back to half its | :24:37. | :24:41. | |
current rate. There are people who would like it to, and believe it | :24:41. | :24:44. | |
will maintain its current rate and even grow. That would solve things | :24:44. | :24:48. | |
for about a century. So because you then get a young population, paying | :24:48. | :24:54. | |
for us all. Skilled? Old codgers, if they can find jobs, and doing | :24:54. | :24:59. | |
some of that work. I think what we are finally coming to, three or | :24:59. | :25:04. | |
four years after the Lehman crises, is a debate about a kind of | :25:04. | :25:08. | |
Conservatism, that is small state, or high-tax, unusual, or a form of | :25:08. | :25:12. | |
social democracy that is very low welfare. That might be the future | :25:12. | :25:16. | |
of politics. In fact you have actually Labour, look at Charles | :25:16. | :25:20. | |
Clarke, saying the unsayable, which actually won't let the | :25:20. | :25:23. | |
Conservatives say at the moment? Charles Clarke is an outlayer at | :25:23. | :25:32. | |
the moment. Following on from your point. Where he had politics on the | :25:32. | :25:38. | |
centre ground, that is what we are used to. You heard Lord Lawson | :25:38. | :25:42. | |
talking about user charges. More and more Tory MPs talking about | :25:42. | :25:45. | |
user charges, they are not bashful talking about what many people will | :25:45. | :25:49. | |
call privatisation. On the one hand you have a new generation happy to | :25:49. | :25:51. | |
talk about it, on the other hand a generation of Labour politicians | :25:51. | :25:55. | |
talking about a greater role for the state. Let's just take the | :25:55. | :26:00. | |
major sucker up of money, the health service. Lord Lawson said it | :26:00. | :26:05. | |
is the nearest thing we have to national religion, the NHS. By the | :26:05. | :26:10. | |
locks of the rows in the coalition and the position David Cameron is | :26:10. | :26:15. | |
taking, it is sacrosanct, how long is that for? Rationing is starting, | :26:15. | :26:21. | |
on the near term political horizon. If you go back to the Government's | :26:21. | :26:24. | |
projections, this projection of going bust by the mid-century, only | :26:24. | :26:29. | |
happens if we don't spend more per head on health as people get sicker | :26:29. | :26:35. | |
and older. All the Ricks are on the upside. -- risks are on the upside. | :26:35. | :26:40. | |
A way of getting health spending as a proportion of GDP, with or | :26:40. | :26:44. | |
without rising public spending is there. I think consensus is | :26:44. | :26:48. | |
withering, this is not a future debate, we have a debate now on | :26:48. | :26:52. | |
social care, how do we pay for the costs of looking after ourselves | :26:52. | :26:56. | |
when we get older. It is in aspect, the Treasury can't come up with a | :26:56. | :27:00. | |
way that doesn't involve public money up front. You have members of | :27:00. | :27:03. | |
the coalition saying they are not happy to use the lower paid to look | :27:03. | :27:07. | |
after those with lots of assets who should be able to look after | :27:07. | :27:13. | |
themselves. This is not very far away, it is going on now. | :27:13. | :27:17. | |
Rebekah Brooks, the former chief executive of News International, | :27:17. | :27:23. | |
spent the day in the salubrious surroundings of a Police Station in | :27:23. | :27:27. | |
Oxfordshire, with her husband in one in Buckinghamshire, helping | :27:27. | :27:33. | |
police with their investigations on the phone hacking cover-ups. At the | :27:33. | :27:36. | |
Leveson Inquiry, the head of Scotland Yard had to deny | :27:36. | :27:44. | |
allegation that is he lent Mrs Brooks a retired police horse so | :27:44. | :27:50. | |
gain work experience for his son at the News of the World. | :27:50. | :27:57. | |
Racing tips are notorious low unwry liable, but race horse trainer | :27:57. | :28:07. | |
:28:07. | :28:08. | ||
Charley Brooks statement in a Not this year, three hours before | :28:08. | :28:16. | |
the first race, instead of talking tack and tactics over a pint in the | :28:16. | :28:19. | |
Gloucestershire sunshine, Charley Brooks was in police custody, | :28:19. | :28:25. | |
having been arrested in a 5.00am raid on his house. Rebekah Brooks | :28:25. | :28:30. | |
was also arrested, his wife, former News of the World editor, and | :28:30. | :28:33. | |
normer News International chief executive. They spent the day being | :28:34. | :28:38. | |
questioned on suspicion of conspiracy to pervert the course of | :28:38. | :28:43. | |
justice. This is an amazing turn of events. Obvious low Rebekah Brooks | :28:43. | :28:48. | |
had been previously arrested -- obviously Rebekah Brooks had been | :28:48. | :28:51. | |
previously arrested for conspiracy to intercept voicemails, this is a | :28:51. | :28:56. | |
much more serious charge. There is a big contrast with Rebekah Brooks | :28:56. | :29:00. | |
previous arrest last July, then, rather than the dawn raid, she was | :29:00. | :29:05. | |
invited to attend a Police Station. Evidence, according to some, of an | :29:05. | :29:08. | |
all too cosy relationship with the police, who, we learned last month, | :29:08. | :29:12. | |
loaned her a retired police horse, to be kept at the Brooks stables in | :29:12. | :29:15. | |
the constituency of the Prime Minister. | :29:15. | :29:19. | |
Charley Brooks is an old school friend of Mr Cameron. One of the | :29:19. | :29:23. | |
more comical elements of the story was the effort Downing Street put | :29:23. | :29:27. | |
in trying not to confirm that Mr Cameron had actually ridden the | :29:27. | :29:31. | |
retired Metropolitan Police police horse, while visiting the -- | :29:31. | :29:34. | |
Metropolitan Police horse while visiting the Brooks property, until | :29:34. | :29:39. | |
the story could be resisted no longer. Before the election I did | :29:39. | :29:44. | |
go riding with him, he has a um in of horses, one of the horses was a | :29:44. | :29:51. | |
former police force Razor, that I did ride. I'm sorry to hear Razor | :29:51. | :29:56. | |
is no longer with us. I don't think I will be getting back into the | :29:56. | :30:00. | |
saddle soon. David Cameron has shown a woeful lack of judgment in | :30:00. | :30:03. | |
his relations with senior News International executives. Remember | :30:03. | :30:08. | |
he hired Andy Coulson, after he had to stop being editor of the News of | :30:08. | :30:11. | |
the World, because phone hacking had been going on when he was | :30:11. | :30:14. | |
editor, despite the warnings, he took him right into the heart of | :30:14. | :30:18. | |
Downing Street. David Cameron, of course, isn't the | :30:18. | :30:22. | |
first Prime Minister to have close relationships with News | :30:22. | :30:25. | |
International executives. Tony Blair was, on kissing terms, | :30:25. | :30:30. | |
although his minders didn't want it filmed, and Gordon Brown's wife | :30:30. | :30:35. | |
hosted a slumber party for Rebekah Brooks at Chequers. | :30:35. | :30:39. | |
Partly in an effort to defuse political heat, David Cameron set | :30:39. | :30:43. | |
up the Leveson Inquiry, but could this inquiry now be jeopardising | :30:43. | :30:47. | |
any chance of a fair trial, if charges are brought. | :30:47. | :30:57. | |
:30:57. | :31:05. | ||
In a newspaper article, Rebekah Last month Deputy Assistant | :31:05. | :31:08. | |
Commissioner, Sue Akers, leading the police investigation into | :31:08. | :31:12. | |
hacking and corrupt payments to police and other officials, gave | :31:12. | :31:22. | |
:31:22. | :31:38. | ||
evidence to the inquiry. She said: MPs are also investigating hacking, | :31:38. | :31:41. | |
and have made strenuous efforts not to prejudice the police | :31:41. | :31:45. | |
investigation. One of the MPs on the Culture, Media and Sport | :31:45. | :31:49. | |
Commitee says the Leveson Inquiry is on tricky ground. I think you | :31:49. | :31:53. | |
need to look at the set-up and conduct of the Leveson Inquiry, | :31:53. | :31:58. | |
there is a point to be made that Mrs Brooks should have been given | :31:58. | :32:01. | |
core participant status in the Leveson Inquiry. It is quite right | :32:01. | :32:04. | |
that things are being said about people to which they apparently | :32:04. | :32:08. | |
have no right of response. Things are out there in the media that | :32:08. | :32:12. | |
which are no doubt prejudicial. I fully support the Leveson Inquiry, | :32:12. | :32:15. | |
it is a very important inquiry, we had to have it, but at the same | :32:15. | :32:18. | |
time we have to be sure that in Leveson trying to get to fairness | :32:18. | :32:23. | |
in the media, that we also have fairness to people who may be | :32:23. | :32:26. | |
charged with criminal offences. That is an important part of our | :32:26. | :32:30. | |
system as well. As a racing man Charley Brooks understands odds, | :32:30. | :32:35. | |
his and the other suspects' chances of being charged is not as yet | :32:35. | :32:38. | |
clear. Tonight five of the six people arrested today were released | :32:38. | :32:42. | |
on police bail. No-one, however, would bet that this is the end of | :32:42. | :32:48. | |
the matter. With me are Tim Luckhurst Professor | :32:48. | :32:52. | |
of Journal at Kent university, and Charlotte Harris, a lawyer who has | :32:52. | :32:57. | |
represented phone hacking victims. First of all, 44 arrests so far, no | :32:57. | :33:02. | |
charges, and Stephen Parkinson, Rebekah Brooks lawyer has said, she | :33:02. | :33:07. | |
was released today, without charge, that in the end if there are trials, | :33:07. | :33:11. | |
they could be a problem. I think there could be a problem. I think | :33:11. | :33:16. | |
what we are seeing is the Leveson Inquiry was a panicked response by | :33:16. | :33:21. | |
politicians, to a genuine crisis but a crisis that largely involved | :33:21. | :33:26. | |
criminality at one newspaper group. What the newspaper inquiry has done | :33:26. | :33:30. | |
is to conflate criminality with a press regulation. That is raising a | :33:30. | :33:36. | |
risk, that witnesses are being allowed to say things that could | :33:36. | :33:40. | |
prejudice criminal trials. Do you accept that argument that it could | :33:40. | :33:47. | |
prejudice criminal trials? Having taken part in the trial, very | :33:47. | :33:50. | |
careful work done by the barristers and Lord Leveson in terms of trying | :33:50. | :33:54. | |
to protect information that might be prejudicial to trials. We are in | :33:54. | :33:57. | |
a very difficult situation at the moment. What should have happened | :33:58. | :34:02. | |
in the normal set of events, it should have been that when the | :34:02. | :34:09. | |
police found out that criminal activity took place, arrested | :34:09. | :34:11. | |
should have been made there and a proper investigation. Everything is | :34:11. | :34:16. | |
out of time. The public inquiry might be a spops, but without it we | :34:16. | :34:21. | |
might -- response, but without it? But with prejudice, is that a risk | :34:21. | :34:25. | |
you have to take? I hope it won't with prejudice it, I hope it will | :34:25. | :34:29. | |
be dealt with properly within the inquiry. They are very careful | :34:29. | :34:33. | |
about what is said? Do you think News International are more likely | :34:33. | :34:37. | |
to co-operate with the police because of Leveson? They may well | :34:37. | :34:42. | |
be, I'm not here to defend news interle that. If there is serious | :34:42. | :34:45. | |
criminal wrongdoing, it should be prosecuted. The thing is, there was | :34:45. | :34:49. | |
no need to have the public inquiry into the standards and practice and | :34:49. | :34:52. | |
ethics of the press at the same time of the criminal investigation. | :34:52. | :34:54. | |
Do you think the criminal investigation has been undermined? | :34:54. | :35:00. | |
Yes, I think the value for public inquiry has been diluted. You have | :35:00. | :35:03. | |
the sight of people coming to a public inquiry and not being able | :35:03. | :35:08. | |
to say anything? There is also the civil situation. That when you have | :35:08. | :35:11. | |
got the civil claimants, who are forcing News International and | :35:11. | :35:17. | |
others to come to the table, having not been investigated by the police, | :35:17. | :35:21. | |
News International didn't want to go to trial, clearly. All the cases | :35:21. | :35:26. | |
in the first SETIle. Within the civil actions, what we find out is | :35:26. | :35:34. | |
there are efpd and evidential problems then -- evidence and | :35:34. | :35:37. | |
evidential problems. The police could have f they wanted to, they | :35:37. | :35:41. | |
started making arrested some time ago, tried to call a halt to the | :35:41. | :35:45. | |
civil action. They didn't. The horse has bolted. In terms of the | :35:45. | :35:49. | |
public inquiry, it is all a bit late to worry about it. I don't | :35:49. | :35:53. | |
agree, I think it is very important that we have a public inquiry into | :35:53. | :35:56. | |
the standards and ethics of the police, or at least into the | :35:56. | :36:00. | |
standards and ethics of the red top tabloid press. What we are having | :36:00. | :36:07. | |
as a comigs that of the two events is an Anne -- comcation of the two | :36:07. | :36:13. | |
events is a red top inquiry. It is, in fact, a very dangerous high bred, | :36:13. | :36:19. | |
which is risks damage to criminal cases and free press in this | :36:19. | :36:22. | |
country. Conflating tabloid newspapers with those of a broad | :36:22. | :36:28. | |
range of newspapers not engaging in those activities. I feel that is | :36:28. | :36:33. | |
very resistant to what the inquiry is about. It is very easy to come | :36:33. | :36:38. | |
into this at this stage, having not seen the resistance that we had, as | :36:38. | :36:42. | |
lawyers do. Getting anything other than this is a one rogue defence. | :36:42. | :36:46. | |
When you say that the inquiry is conflating two issues. It is | :36:46. | :36:50. | |
actually dealing with different issues. When you have criminality | :36:50. | :36:58. | |
springing from the press, and not just the red tops. We were looking | :36:58. | :37:01. | |
for criminality in terms of the police and so on. You were saying | :37:01. | :37:05. | |
earlier you were not sure it will prejudice cases? I don't think it | :37:05. | :37:11. | |
will. To characterise the inquiry as only being there to have a go at | :37:11. | :37:18. | |
the red tops isn't right. Was it politically expedient to have a | :37:18. | :37:22. | |
public inquiry? Yes, that is precisely right. Charlotte, it | :37:22. | :37:26. | |
wasn't the intention of the inquiry, it is not Lord justice Leveson's | :37:26. | :37:32. | |
fault, but the conflation of these two issues has turned the Leveson | :37:32. | :37:36. | |
Inquiry as essentially an inquiry into one newspaper group, News | :37:37. | :37:39. | |
International. I think we need generally better than that, we need | :37:39. | :37:43. | |
an inquiry that looks at the standards, ethics and practices of | :37:43. | :37:46. | |
the British press, we are not having that. Is it having an impact | :37:46. | :37:50. | |
on the press and the way things are reported at the moment? It is | :37:50. | :37:54. | |
having an additional minor chilling effect. The biggest chilling effect | :37:54. | :37:57. | |
comes as a result of privacy rulings and defamation and so on. | :37:57. | :38:01. | |
One of the great things about the inquiry has been that it has given | :38:01. | :38:09. | |
the public an opportunity to hear the victims' stories. And to allow | :38:09. | :38:14. | |
them time, not by selling their story to a newspaper, or giving an | :38:15. | :38:19. | |
interview, in a forum which seemed appropriate, and they weren't being | :38:19. | :38:23. | |
paid, or nobody could accuse them of that, to simply answer questions | :38:23. | :38:27. | |
about how they feel. And I think that's been very useful. I think it | :38:27. | :38:31. | |
has changed attitudes as to what the public want. They can see the | :38:31. | :38:34. | |
story and the effect and the emotion behind it. Thank you very | :38:34. | :38:40. | |
much. He's the young dancer many compared | :38:40. | :38:46. | |
to Nureyev and Baryshnikov. The prodigy who at 19 became the | :38:46. | :38:50. | |
youngest ever principal dancer with the Royal Ballet. But Sergei | :38:50. | :38:57. | |
Polunin shocked the dance world in January, when he walked out of the | :38:57. | :39:03. | |
role. The dancer, who likes to be likened to James Dean, and has a | :39:03. | :39:07. | |
tattoo parlour, returned to the stage at Sadler's Wells. He spoke | :39:07. | :39:14. | |
about why he walked out on his dream. | :39:14. | :39:18. | |
Rehearsing in a Top Gun T-shirt, the tattoo-sporting ballet star, | :39:18. | :39:23. | |
who had the world at his highly- prized feet, only to turn his back | :39:23. | :39:28. | |
on it. Sergei Polunin, whom we found rehearsing for a new show, | :39:28. | :39:32. | |
sensationally quit the Royal Ballet, where he was the youngest-ever | :39:32. | :39:40. | |
principal dancer at the tender age of 19. In his first television | :39:40. | :39:45. | |
interview since that dramatic exit, Polunin, flunked by his friend and | :39:45. | :39:49. | |
collaborator, Ivan Putrov, began by discussing whether he still has an | :39:49. | :39:53. | |
appetite for dance. Sergei, how was that for you, you're not the | :39:53. | :39:59. | |
keenest on rehearsing, is that right? It is not my favourite thing | :39:59. | :40:09. | |
to do, no. I have been working quite hard for this. Learning new | :40:09. | :40:13. | |
pieces. Is it like athletes, you read about, footballers, they hate | :40:13. | :40:17. | |
training, they can only really get involved when it is the big | :40:17. | :40:24. | |
occasion? That is the only time I would enjoy professionally in that | :40:24. | :40:28. | |
way. It is communicating with people. It is quite like you | :40:28. | :40:34. | |
learned a lot and you practice a lot, so for months, maybe, you | :40:35. | :40:40. | |
sometimes argue, you sometimes, it is like nine hours a day. So when | :40:40. | :40:45. | |
you final low are on stage, especially when it is finished, you | :40:45. | :40:55. | |
:40:55. | :41:04. | ||
have so much adrenaline and so much Polunin said it had been his dream | :41:04. | :41:14. | |
:41:14. | :41:15. | ||
to become principal dancer with the Royal Ballet. So what went wrong? | :41:15. | :41:25. | |
:41:25. | :41:26. | ||
In a way, I did feel like the artist in me was dying a little bit. | :41:26. | :41:33. | |
And I wasn't giving the best of myself, and to put creativity in it | :41:33. | :41:42. | |
as I should and as I I have in me. So I do agree, if you don't explore | :41:42. | :41:47. | |
these things and the artist just dies, if you don't give him a | :41:47. | :41:51. | |
freedom. Was that the issue, it sounds as if you have more freedom | :41:51. | :41:58. | |
now, you are happier now, perhaps you didn't have sufficient before? | :41:58. | :42:07. | |
I can't say like I'm happy now. I'm still finding my way, what I'm | :42:07. | :42:11. | |
going to do, what is the thing to do. I'm going to explore different | :42:11. | :42:21. | |
:42:21. | :42:22. | ||
directions. I did feel so comfortable that I | :42:22. | :42:27. | |
stopped being involved as a person and an artist, that is what I want. | :42:27. | :42:34. | |
I don't want to be comfort, I don't want to have family, so I destroyed | :42:34. | :42:38. | |
in a way everything I had. You felt you had to destroy everything you | :42:38. | :42:43. | |
had, that you worked so hard for, before you could move on and find | :42:43. | :42:48. | |
ourself again? It is basically, yes, it is almost like a delete button, | :42:48. | :42:56. | |
you just want to start fresh. feels good? It did, in a way, | :42:56. | :43:02. | |
because you just throw everything you had, you just clean yourself, | :43:02. | :43:11. | |
in a way. The only thing I didn't do was change the country. Were you | :43:11. | :43:21. | |
:43:21. | :43:21. | ||
surprised by the reaction to it? I was, because I never thought, I | :43:21. | :43:26. | |
just wanted to go quietly. But it is amazing, it is, in a way, | :43:26. | :43:30. | |
supported me, because if you come back home and you destroyed | :43:30. | :43:37. | |
everything you had, it feels really weird. I have built something for | :43:37. | :43:47. | |
seven years and now it is gone. Now I gather you quite like a | :43:47. | :43:52. | |
tattoo? One on the wrist. They are all random, I just do them on the | :43:52. | :43:58. | |
day. I don't plan them. I have maybe 11. Have you? Quite a lot. | :43:58. | :44:08. | |
:44:08. | :44:08. | ||
What I like about tattoo is the atmosphere. It is like a lot of | :44:09. | :44:13. | |
friends, a lot of normal people there. It is just fun. Do you think | :44:13. | :44:22. | |
that you will still be dancing in four, five years time? At the | :44:22. | :44:26. | |
moment I don't think I wouldn't, not in six years. I would love to | :44:27. | :44:31. | |
achieve something else in a different profession. Because once | :44:31. | :44:41. | |
:44:41. | :44:45. | ||
you achieve something, you just Sergei Polunin, tomorrow morning's | :44:45. | :44:50. | |
front pages, that 100-year bond, Osborne bond to lock in low | :44:50. | :44:54. | |
interest rates. Rebekah Brooks and her husband on the right hand side. | :44:54. | :45:00. | |
Osborne to issue Great War bonds to raise cash. There is Michelle Obama | :45:00. | :45:04. | |
and Samantha Cameron on the other and Samantha Cameron on the other | :45:04. | :45:08. | |
side. The Independent has Russia saying | :45:08. | :45:18. | |
:45:18. | :45:18. | ||
they are happy to sell arms to That's all from Newsnight tonight. | :45:18. | :45:21. | |
Emily is back tomorrow with more good cheer. From all of us tomorrow, | :45:21. | :45:31. | |
:45:31. | :45:57. | ||
Low cloud, mist and fog a problem tonight and tomorrow morning. A | :45:57. | :46:02. | |
gloomy start to the day, light rain or drizzle in the south west, most | :46:02. | :46:06. | |
will have a dry day and a lightning of the skies. Struggling to the | :46:06. | :46:10. | |
North West of England. A bit of brightness, the east of the Pennine, | :46:10. | :46:16. | |
it may be up to 13 or 14. Parts of East Midlands could be best | :46:16. | :46:20. | |
favoured for holding on to the grey, misty low cloud. To the south west, | :46:20. | :46:26. | |
after that foggy start, bestens cha of sunshine across Wales. With | :46:26. | :46:31. | |
winds light, 14, 15, with one or two spots holding on to the cloud. | :46:31. | :46:34. | |
Maybe around the coast, probably most likely it will only be eight | :46:34. | :46:37. | |
or nine degrees. In Northern Ireland a brighter day than recent | :46:38. | :46:42. | |
low, the cloud thinning and breaking. So too to the north-east | :46:42. | :46:47. | |
of Scotland, a pleasant day. The Moray firth, the cloud thick enough | :46:47. | :46:53. | |
for one or two showers. A bit more cloud across the south | :46:53. | :46:56. | |
west of Ireland and Northern Ireland, elsewhere reasonably dry | :46:56. | :47:00. | |
and bright. For southern parts of England and Wales, increasing | :47:00. | :47:03. | |
amounts of sunshine once again. That is boasting the temperatures. | :47:04. | :47:07. | |
The south-east seeing longest spells of sunshine through the day. | :47:07. | :47:10. |