Browse content similar to 16/03/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
Line | From | To | |
---|---|---|---|
He was the Archbishop who tried to be the uniter, should Rowan | :00:12. | :00:16. | |
Williams have tried to be someone else. May the peace of God be on | :00:16. | :00:21. | |
this house and upon this company. For nearly a decade the Archbishop | :00:21. | :00:26. | |
of Canterbury struggled to pull the Anglican Church together. But | :00:26. | :00:29. | |
disagreements over women bishops and gay marriage are fundamental | :00:29. | :00:35. | |
and not going away. We debate on whether the church would be better | :00:35. | :00:38. | |
spliting apart. Amid rising tensions in Afghanistan, | :00:38. | :00:42. | |
we return to Kabul to assess the mood and speak to the President. | :00:42. | :00:46. | |
Your relationship with the United States, is it at the end of the | :00:46. | :00:54. | |
road? This form of activity, this behaviour, cannot be tolerated. | :00:54. | :00:57. | |
And is the Chancellor, who says we're all in this together, really | :00:57. | :01:02. | |
about to cut taxes for the richist in society, or will he stand up -- | :01:02. | :01:05. | |
richest on society, or will he stand up on Budget Day and announce | :01:05. | :01:08. | |
nothing of the kind. We will look at the odds on George Osborne | :01:08. | :01:18. | |
:01:18. | :01:18. | ||
ditching the 50p rate of tax, and the political implications. Good | :01:18. | :01:22. | |
evening. Politicians and religious leaders paid tribute to Rowan | :01:22. | :01:27. | |
Williams today, after he announced his tenth year as rarpblg Bishop of | :01:27. | :01:30. | |
Canterbury would be his last. There is no getting round it, the job as | :01:31. | :01:35. | |
head of the Anglican Church has gotten steadily harder. He may have | :01:35. | :01:39. | |
challenged the imagination of the country, as the Labour leader, Ed | :01:39. | :01:44. | |
Milliband, suggested. But when it came to the church itself, his time | :01:44. | :01:50. | |
in office was spent papering over the cracks, containing but never | :01:50. | :01:53. | |
healing over a schism. In a moment we will look and see if the effort | :01:53. | :01:57. | |
was worth it. In the Buckinghamshire parish | :01:57. | :02:01. | |
church of St Margaret, Virgin and Martyr, they were meeting today to | :02:02. | :02:10. | |
appoint a new rebgtor. Rector. A choice on a local level, | :02:10. | :02:15. | |
as hard as the one facing the whole church, obliged to find a successor | :02:15. | :02:22. | |
to Rowan Williams. Here in the village of Iver Heath, there is | :02:22. | :02:29. | |
only one question, it will be a man, this church doesn't accept women | :02:30. | :02:33. | |
priests. St Margaret's, in other words, is a symbol of the kind of | :02:33. | :02:37. | |
church that Dr Williams, who announced his forth coming | :02:37. | :02:41. | |
resignation today, has led for nearly ten years. Through the rows | :02:41. | :02:44. | |
over ordination of women and gay people, he has fought to keep it | :02:44. | :02:50. | |
intact. He admits that has taken a toll on him. Dr Williams has said | :02:50. | :02:54. | |
his successor will need the constitution of an ox and the hide | :02:54. | :03:01. | |
of a wry non-rus. Testament of how hard it is to -- Rhine no sirous, | :03:01. | :03:05. | |
testament of how hard it is to hold this church together. | :03:05. | :03:08. | |
Now Rowan Williams is going, some will ask whether it is worth | :03:08. | :03:11. | |
continuing what may be a hopeless struing. | :03:11. | :03:16. | |
A struggle overish -- struggle. A struggle over issues that seem to | :03:16. | :03:21. | |
obsess the church but matter little to people outside. Most people find | :03:22. | :03:28. | |
it incredible that anyone, let alone those with pretensions to | :03:28. | :03:32. | |
moral authority would be scrapping over the place of women in society. | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
It seems extraordinary any serious body will be fighting over. That | :03:36. | :03:40. | |
someone said they thought we had sorted that 20 or 30 years ago, why | :03:40. | :03:43. | |
is it the big issue now. When it comes down to gay people, the idea | :03:43. | :03:49. | |
that gay people are some how children of a lesser God, that some | :03:49. | :03:53. | |
how they can't have loving, permanent, stable relationships, | :03:53. | :03:59. | |
strikes many people as, to use a rather awful word, grotesque. | :03:59. | :04:04. | |
national church, created as part of an arrangement, to allow the | :04:04. | :04:09. | |
remarriage of Henry VIII, still has arrangements in its blood. That is | :04:09. | :04:12. | |
why there is a second bishop here today to help choose the new rector, | :04:12. | :04:17. | |
a flying bishop, appointed separately to support par aishs | :04:17. | :04:22. | |
that op -- parishs that oppose the ordination of Britain. | :04:22. | :04:27. | |
Shnt too much time spent on those church that is think things are | :04:27. | :04:29. | |
important theological and within the church, but not really of | :04:29. | :04:37. | |
interest to the wider community? think the opposite risk is that the | :04:37. | :04:41. | |
church ploughs very determinately a particular furrow on one or other | :04:41. | :04:46. | |
issue and people fall away. You actually lead to a splintering and | :04:46. | :04:51. | |
weakening of the whole, where as, what we have, potentially, is a way | :04:51. | :04:54. | |
of having that common commitment to presenting the Christian faith in a | :04:54. | :04:59. | |
way that is really engaging and lively, and converting, which is | :04:59. | :05:06. | |
what the country needs. To say, yes we can do this, and within certain | :05:06. | :05:08. | |
limits we can accommodate difference. | :05:08. | :05:13. | |
But has the effort to acomdied that internal difference sometimes | :05:13. | :05:18. | |
distracted the church from engaging clearly in big national debates. | :05:18. | :05:25. | |
Like many politician, Lord Falconer hugely admired Dr Williams, but | :05:25. | :05:29. | |
feels he hasn't been able to use his gifts to the full. Imagine an | :05:29. | :05:34. | |
organisation that could say we strongly disapprove of this or that | :05:34. | :05:38. | |
aspect of a particular change, for example like a cap on welfare | :05:38. | :05:41. | |
benefits, and people listening to that, rather than simply treating | :05:41. | :05:47. | |
it as one voice among many voices, in relation to the issue. It is not | :05:47. | :05:52. | |
the position now, will it happen in the future? Well, if Rowan Williams, | :05:52. | :05:57. | |
a man of huge integrity, couldn't provide the cohesion that was | :05:57. | :06:02. | |
needed in relation to t it is very difficult to imagine anybody else | :06:02. | :06:08. | |
that could. To avoid schism, Dr Williams has tried to get all the | :06:08. | :06:11. | |
institute churches of the wider Anglican union, to agree to a | :06:11. | :06:16. | |
covenant that would stop them ordaining openly gay Clergy without | :06:16. | :06:22. | |
central consent. But more and more dies sis of England are rejecting | :06:22. | :06:26. | |
it. That document of Rowan Williams, that was to be his legacy, a new | :06:27. | :06:30. | |
shape for the Anglican community, is now dead in the water. That | :06:30. | :06:34. | |
makes it very difficult for Dr Williams to continue as Archbishop | :06:34. | :06:38. | |
of Canterbury, which many people regard as something of a tragedy. | :06:38. | :06:41. | |
Here is who the bookies say is favourite to be the next head of | :06:41. | :06:45. | |
the church, the Archbishop of York, John Sentamu. REPORTER: Do you | :06:45. | :06:50. | |
fancy the job? You can't be serious. Whatever his chances, some already | :06:50. | :06:55. | |
feel he represents a centralising tendency that may be counter- | :06:55. | :06:58. | |
productive. A wise new Archbishop will be genuinely collaborative and | :06:58. | :07:03. | |
work from the bottom up, rather than trying to drive things from | :07:03. | :07:08. | |
the centre. I don't think Rowan Williams has intended to do that, I | :07:08. | :07:12. | |
it is more the Archbishop of York associated with that than the | :07:12. | :07:15. | |
Archbishop of Canterbury, it is a phenomenon that has grown in the | :07:15. | :07:22. | |
last few years. An inspiring, thoughtful man, in an impossible | :07:22. | :07:25. | |
job, Rowan Williams will be missed by many, but he has found no | :07:25. | :07:30. | |
solutions to problems in the church that may be too broad for its own | :07:30. | :07:33. | |
good. With me are the Right Reverend Stephen Cottrell, the | :07:33. | :07:38. | |
Bishop of Chelmsford, theeloj can, Dr Robert Beckford, and Canon | :07:38. | :07:42. | |
Doctor Chris Sugden, from the Campaign Group, Anglican Mainstream. | :07:42. | :07:45. | |
We have said that Rowan Williams was all about uniting a church, | :07:46. | :07:49. | |
that was all he was about for the last ten years, did he actually | :07:49. | :07:59. | |
:07:59. | :08:01. | ||
succeed, has he held the church together? I think he has been an | :08:01. | :08:04. | |
outstanding Archbishop in many ways, the analysis on which the | :08:04. | :08:08. | |
conversation is premised is a false one. I don't think he was at all | :08:08. | :08:11. | |
interested in papering over cracks, what he was interested in doing was | :08:11. | :08:17. | |
helping us look at our foundations. One of those foundations is, of | :08:17. | :08:20. | |
course, not the Archbishop of Canterbury, not the Church of | :08:20. | :08:25. | |
England, but Jesus Christ, Jesus Christ tells you that I can't be a | :08:25. | :08:29. | |
Christian on my own, my Christian faith brings me into relationships | :08:29. | :08:34. | |
with others, and often, with people with whom I disagree. And so how we | :08:34. | :08:39. | |
handle those disagreements, and how we hold together, truth and unity, | :08:39. | :08:42. | |
are two very important things. Now, the disagreements that we have at | :08:42. | :08:46. | |
the moment are just the latest disagreements that have littered | :08:46. | :08:50. | |
church history from the beginning. These are deep disagreements, as I | :08:51. | :08:54. | |
said, they are not going anywhere, people feel very deeply about them? | :08:54. | :08:59. | |
That may be how you see it, it is not how many of us see it in the | :08:59. | :09:03. | |
church. We are very committed to holding ourselves together as one | :09:03. | :09:08. | |
church, and building those bonds of affection with one another, around | :09:08. | :09:12. | |
the truths that we have received. And I believe, what Rowan Williams | :09:12. | :09:17. | |
has offered us, is a way of engaging with each other, | :09:17. | :09:20. | |
continuing conversation, which has never been easy, but that | :09:20. | :09:24. | |
conversation continues. Do you agree with this, you have said you | :09:24. | :09:28. | |
think people who agree with gay priests should leave the church? | :09:28. | :09:32. | |
I'm not certain when I have said that. There are many priests who | :09:32. | :09:36. | |
are gay, the issue is behaviour, not orientation. | :09:36. | :09:39. | |
But the issue is really. Do you think it will be as easy, | :09:39. | :09:44. | |
regardless of the ins and outs, do you think it will be as easy as the | :09:44. | :09:52. | |
bishop seems to be suggesting? not suinging it is easy, but I will | :09:52. | :09:59. | |
let -- suggesting it will be easy. What I have said is I think he has | :09:59. | :10:01. | |
enabled a conversation to happen and that is continuing. It is a | :10:01. | :10:04. | |
hard conversation, because loving your neighbour, especially the one | :10:04. | :10:08. | |
you disagree with, is never easy. Where does the conversation end? | :10:08. | :10:11. | |
think we have to understand what the Church of England, and the | :10:11. | :10:14. | |
wider Anglican Communion, we are talking not just about the Church | :10:14. | :10:18. | |
of England, we are talking about the worldwide communion, of 55 | :10:18. | :10:22. | |
million Anglicans, the issue is not the leader, it is the nature of | :10:22. | :10:26. | |
leadership, in what is basically a family. A family that has a shared | :10:26. | :10:31. | |
history, many shared relationships, as a shared faith, as the bishop | :10:31. | :10:36. | |
has said, in Jesus Christ and his word in the scriptures. What has | :10:36. | :10:41. | |
changed over Archbishop Williams's ten years has been the nature of | :10:41. | :10:45. | |
the leadership in the communion, it is a multipolar community, many | :10:45. | :10:48. | |
different networks and organisations globally. Do you | :10:48. | :10:54. | |
think that works and is sustain snbl I think it is sustainable and | :10:54. | :10:58. | |
needs Sustainable? I think it is sustainable, and I would like to | :10:58. | :11:03. | |
see his successor take seriously the leadership of the churches and | :11:03. | :11:07. | |
the Primates in Africa and the global south. That is one area that | :11:07. | :11:12. | |
needs to be improved on. A second area that needs to be improved is | :11:12. | :11:14. | |
the role and position of the Conservatives in the church should | :11:14. | :11:19. | |
be taken much more seriously. For example, there is one dies sis, the | :11:19. | :11:27. | |
Diocese of -- diocese, the Diocese of Southwark, where in the last six | :11:27. | :11:30. | |
appointments have been from the same revisionist stripe, even | :11:31. | :11:34. | |
though all the churches in the diocese have been evangelical, | :11:34. | :11:38. | |
there has been no appointments from such a section. There must be | :11:38. | :11:41. | |
collaboration with the leadership and taking seriously the global | :11:41. | :11:47. | |
south, and seriously the control of conservative evangelicals and | :11:47. | :11:54. | |
anglo-Catholics, who it is said make up 40% of the church right now. | :11:54. | :11:59. | |
What is your take, that somebody can do this job, the successor to | :11:59. | :12:01. | |
the Archbishop of Canterbury will be able to hold it together? | :12:01. | :12:04. | |
don't think so, this is a family at war, maybe it is time for the | :12:04. | :12:11. | |
church to bite the bullet and look at ways to separate and I April | :12:11. | :12:18. | |
cablely. Separation or -- amble, separation. It may lead to | :12:18. | :12:22. | |
evangelism and prophetic ministry, churches that engage in the real | :12:22. | :12:26. | |
issues ordinary people are concerned W I think the discussion | :12:26. | :12:31. | |
is incredibly myopic, I don't think the average Anglican, who is a | :12:31. | :12:36. | |
black woman in the global south, who is not concerned about the next | :12:36. | :12:41. | |
leader, but concerned about what the next leader will deliver. | :12:41. | :12:45. | |
couldn't be more wrong. The Christian faith requires us to love | :12:45. | :12:50. | |
our neighbour and be in community with each other. There is no other | :12:50. | :12:54. | |
choice that we seek unity in Christ and with each other, that is non- | :12:54. | :12:58. | |
negotiable. In my experience, which I agree is not a huge wurpbgs but | :12:58. | :13:03. | |
in my experience of travel -- one, but my experience of travelling | :13:03. | :13:06. | |
overseas, particularly in Kenya, they care very much about the unity | :13:06. | :13:10. | |
they have with Christians in this country. And we are a global faith, | :13:10. | :13:13. | |
or we are nothing. It is about faith, it is about | :13:13. | :13:16. | |
belief. If you were a political party, you could understand why you | :13:16. | :13:22. | |
might need to do wheeling and dealing, and coming to some kind of | :13:22. | :13:26. | |
lowest common denominator, that is not what religion is supposed to be. | :13:26. | :13:33. | |
How can it survive if people inside are fundamentally uncomfortable? | :13:33. | :13:36. | |
don't see politics or wheeling and dealing, what I do see is | :13:36. | :13:39. | |
Christians want to go discover. Having fundamental disagreements? | :13:40. | :13:42. | |
And learning how to live with them rather than split because of them. | :13:42. | :13:47. | |
And working out what are the legitimate boundaries within which | :13:47. | :13:51. | |
Christian faith can grow and flourish. We have a concrete | :13:51. | :13:55. | |
example of it, we had the covenant, that was supposed to be a unifying | :13:55. | :13:59. | |
document, and yet not even, a large number of diocese in England have | :13:59. | :14:05. | |
been unable to support it. If not that, what is going to do it? | :14:05. | :14:09. | |
problem is, that we have got a different style of the three | :14:09. | :14:12. | |
groupings that make up the Church of England at the moment. You have | :14:12. | :14:17. | |
the anglo-Catholics, the liberals and the evangelicals, the Church of | :14:17. | :14:20. | |
England has historically embraced all three within certain boundaries, | :14:20. | :14:24. | |
what we have had in the last ten years is a much more centralist | :14:25. | :14:30. | |
approach by some of those groupings. For example, in the United States | :14:30. | :14:36. | |
you have had people taking out law cases against Clergy, parishs and | :14:36. | :14:39. | |
congregation, depriving them of their living, pensions and churches, | :14:39. | :14:44. | |
because they happen to disagree with the ordination of someone in a | :14:44. | :14:49. | |
same sexual relationship. That is what I call essentialism, they are | :14:49. | :14:52. | |
pushing people out by their essentialism. They are not willing | :14:52. | :14:56. | |
to accept that there is a legitimate disagreement and people | :14:56. | :15:00. | |
can belong. I think again it is a complex issue, | :15:00. | :15:03. | |
and very painful for Anglicans to have to consider their church being | :15:04. | :15:08. | |
fractured by this. Do you think it is sapping energy? I think it is | :15:08. | :15:12. | |
sapping energy. I think it is actually misguided. The real issue | :15:12. | :15:17. | |
is how can the next Archbishop develop a prophetic ministry, a | :15:17. | :15:20. | |
ministry that will speak truth to power, that will engage with every | :15:20. | :15:23. | |
day ordinary people within the country, and actually, more than | :15:23. | :15:26. | |
anything else, deal with the fact that most people are not interested | :15:26. | :15:30. | |
in religion in this country. That is the fundamental issue. This is | :15:30. | :15:34. | |
meant to be a church of the nation. Most people have turned their backs | :15:34. | :15:39. | |
on the church. The critical issue is how can they renew the church in | :15:39. | :15:43. | |
such a way that it engages with people. Shows people that faith | :15:43. | :15:48. | |
matters. We have to wind up in a minute. You have to ask you, you | :15:48. | :15:53. | |
have to know you are appearing on some of the lists today, do you | :15:53. | :16:01. | |
have the constitution of an ox and the hide of a Rhino? I take a lead | :16:01. | :16:05. | |
from Rowan Williams on many things but not on that, I look forward | :16:05. | :16:09. | |
with joyfulness and gentleness. were 15-1 before this discussion, | :16:09. | :16:14. | |
who knows afterwards. The relationship between America | :16:14. | :16:17. | |
and Afghanistan is looking increasingly fractured this week, | :16:17. | :16:20. | |
as Afghan officials try to get to the bottom of the deadly rampage by | :16:20. | :16:25. | |
a US officer, which killed 16 civilians. President Hamid Karzai | :16:25. | :16:28. | |
today lashed out at the US, for failing to co-operate with his | :16:28. | :16:31. | |
investigation. He's also unhappy that the soldier | :16:31. | :16:38. | |
responsible, who has just been named as Staff Sergeant Robert | :16:38. | :16:42. | |
Bales, has been taken to the US for trial. | :16:42. | :16:48. | |
We have been gauging the mood among Afghans in the capital. | :16:48. | :16:52. | |
It is graduation day for newly- trained Afghan soldiers. Elated | :16:52. | :16:58. | |
that good friends go with them, as they head out to their first fight. | :16:58. | :17:02. | |
They will be fighting alongside US and other NATO forces. But how hard | :17:02. | :17:06. | |
is that now? What do you think about what | :17:06. | :17:09. | |
happened in Kandahar, when one American soldier went and killed | :17:09. | :17:15. | |
some Afghan civilians, do you trust the Americans? No, you don't? Why | :17:15. | :17:20. | |
don't you? TRANSLATION: No, why did they kill | :17:20. | :17:25. | |
these innocent Muslims. What did they do wrong? If they work | :17:25. | :17:31. | |
properly we are ready to work with them. If they don't, we are not. | :17:31. | :17:37. | |
Off camera, some soldiers were more blunt. Kafirs, infidels, declared | :17:37. | :17:41. | |
one young guard when I asked him about the Americans, who pick up | :17:41. | :17:43. | |
most of the tab for his fledgling army. | :17:43. | :17:49. | |
That anger goes right up to the palace. Today President Karzai | :17:49. | :17:54. | |
asked tribunal elders from Kandahar to -- tribal elders to tell him | :17:54. | :17:57. | |
what happened when 16 people were killed. They spoke with anger and | :17:57. | :18:04. | |
sadness. This man described how 11 people | :18:04. | :18:12. | |
died in one house alone. The man who survived that said his | :18:12. | :18:16. | |
relatives were mutilated, the women were killed. How could this be the | :18:16. | :18:22. | |
work of one man. The President was clearly moved and | :18:22. | :18:27. | |
angered by what he heard. When he rose to leave, I called out to him. | :18:27. | :18:31. | |
REPORTER: Do you accept the official American account that only | :18:31. | :18:36. | |
one American soldier was involved in these killings? The story of the | :18:36. | :18:46. | |
:18:46. | :18:47. | ||
village elders in there said is different, he said it is not | :18:47. | :18:52. | |
possible that one person could do that. In his house four rooms, | :18:52. | :18:56. | |
women and children were killed, they were all put in one room and | :18:56. | :19:01. | |
put on fire. That one man cannot do. What do you do next, Sir? It is by | :19:01. | :19:07. | |
all means the end of the road here. Nobody can afford such luxuries, | :19:07. | :19:13. | |
any more, if you can call it a luxury. This form of activity, this | :19:13. | :19:22. | |
behaviour, cannot be tolerated. This week the Afghan parliament, | :19:22. | :19:25. | |
also declared its patience was running out. But it is one thing to | :19:25. | :19:32. | |
say it, another to do it. They still need their foreign partners. | :19:32. | :19:37. | |
Afghanistan cannot survive without the support of international | :19:37. | :19:47. | |
:19:47. | :19:51. | ||
commune ity. You are in surviving by money given by British and | :19:51. | :19:57. | |
American tax-payers. If you refuse to finance the Afghan budget, I | :19:57. | :20:01. | |
would say Mr Karzai, President of Afghanistan, he has not the money | :20:01. | :20:08. | |
to buy the tea for his office. Despite this dependency, there is a | :20:08. | :20:11. | |
growing distance. Every time I visit there are new security | :20:11. | :20:17. | |
barriers. You hardly see any foreigners on the streets now. They | :20:17. | :20:23. | |
used to buy souvenirs here, today I'm the only one. | :20:23. | :20:28. | |
I often drop by this cafe to meet young Afghan friends. It is filled | :20:28. | :20:31. | |
with well dressed, well educated Afghans, who have done well on | :20:31. | :20:35. | |
salaries paid by the west. Even they find it hard to understand why | :20:35. | :20:39. | |
it is so difficult to get this relationship right. | :20:39. | :20:45. | |
My understanding is, the people who are making decisions do not have | :20:45. | :20:50. | |
this leverage. They are sitting behind closed doors, getting | :20:50. | :20:52. | |
information from people I have difficulty understanding, of how | :20:52. | :20:56. | |
they can relay this sort of information to them. That then goes | :20:56. | :20:59. | |
up and then decisions are based on that. They don't even get to come | :20:59. | :21:05. | |
out to see the real Kabul, forget the provinces and the villages, how | :21:05. | :21:09. | |
can you build trust when they can't even come out and we can't go in. | :21:09. | :21:15. | |
If you go in, you feel you are in a different, I'm sorry, it is my | :21:15. | :21:18. | |
country, it is a different place. I'm searched to the extent that I | :21:18. | :21:22. | |
don't want to deal with it. The issue is here, if you want to build | :21:22. | :21:26. | |
trust, they need to come out and speak to the normal population. | :21:26. | :21:29. | |
There seems to be battles everywhere. And sometimes it seems | :21:29. | :21:36. | |
they are not fighting with, but against each other. | :21:37. | :21:40. | |
And that's dangerous, when it comes to a real battlefield. | :21:40. | :21:45. | |
This isn't one. These soldiers are being trained to throw grenades. | :21:46. | :21:50. | |
All the weapons are pretend. This man's gun is a drain pipe, but they | :21:50. | :22:00. | |
:22:00. | :22:00. | ||
are not faking their desire to fight, and to fight their own way. | :22:00. | :22:05. | |
They are getting the training of every NATO soldier, the best | :22:05. | :22:09. | |
training that can be offered here, which you are constantly reminded, | :22:09. | :22:17. | |
this is an Afghan Muslim army. What do they shout when they hurl those | :22:17. | :22:23. | |
grenades, Allah hu Akbar, "God it great". | :22:23. | :22:26. | |
Armies often say they throw away their plans once they meet the | :22:26. | :22:35. | |
reality of war. The problem here is there is no other plan. | :22:35. | :22:45. | |
:22:45. | :22:46. | ||
Right now, no-one is clear what to Allah hu Akbar. | :22:46. | :22:51. | |
50p, or not 50p, it is a question we have spent a surprisingly large | :22:51. | :22:54. | |
amount of time discussing in the lead up to the budget. You might | :22:54. | :22:59. | |
think not so surprising, after all, we know the Chancellor thinks high | :22:59. | :23:02. | |
taxes for wealth creators are bad for business and he would like to | :23:02. | :23:06. | |
ditch that one. Now there are cuts as far as the eyes can see, real | :23:07. | :23:11. | |
incomes for most households are falling, and politically the wealth | :23:11. | :23:15. | |
creators have turned into "fat cats", not a great time to cut them | :23:15. | :23:20. | |
a break. Before we discuss it, a few facts. | :23:20. | :23:30. | |
:23:30. | :23:30. | ||
The Treasury estimate there are tax-payers that fall into the 50p | :23:30. | :23:35. | |
band. Labour says it will raise �2.6 billion in the first year. | :23:35. | :23:41. | |
Some say it won't raise anything at all, one thing high earners know is | :23:41. | :23:46. | |
how to avoid tax. Who could tax the rich, there is the Lib Dem idea of | :23:46. | :23:51. | |
a mansion tax on properties over �2 million, or Warren Buffett's tycoon | :23:51. | :23:56. | |
tax, forcing the rich to pay a certain share of their income in | :23:56. | :24:02. | |
tax. Or Mr Osborne could reduce the tax relief on high earners' pension | :24:02. | :24:06. | |
contributions. I'm joined now by Daniel | :24:06. | :24:10. | |
Finkelstein from the Times, and Steve Richards from the Independent. | :24:10. | :24:16. | |
What's going on, how do you read all of the last few weeks | :24:16. | :24:22. | |
machinations about the 50p? All the debate has taken place in public | :24:22. | :24:27. | |
because of the budget. Can you read that in it? I can't raet it any | :24:27. | :24:32. | |
other way, the discussions that take place normally take place in | :24:32. | :24:35. | |
cabinet. Now he has to discuss it with the Liberal Democrats, that | :24:35. | :24:38. | |
probably goes a little wider, Nick Clegg has to bring his | :24:38. | :24:42. | |
parliamentary team in, when you go beyond three or four people you get | :24:42. | :24:48. | |
leaks. I take very seriously what I read in the paper. I think what we | :24:48. | :24:52. | |
are seeing now is the game big played as to how this will be | :24:52. | :24:55. | |
perceived afterwards. So I think, I'm guessing that the Lib Dems were | :24:55. | :24:59. | |
the source of this story, because they want to make quite clear they | :24:59. | :25:04. | |
have got what they wanted, which was fair in their view, progressive | :25:04. | :25:08. | |
tax breaks in terms of raising the threshold for low income earners, | :25:08. | :25:11. | |
and not paying income tax. But therefore they have conceded ground, | :25:11. | :25:15. | |
as they would put it, and want to create a distance with the | :25:15. | :25:19. | |
Conservatives' desire for the top rate of tax to be cut. So I think | :25:19. | :25:23. | |
the stories are accurate, and they reflect what is going on in | :25:23. | :25:26. | |
preparation for next Wednesday. Whatever is going to happen, it has | :25:26. | :25:34. | |
been decided, we have been told it has gone to the office of budget | :25:34. | :25:38. | |
for responsibility d to the Office of Budget Responsibility, what is | :25:38. | :25:42. | |
your instinct -- to the Office of Budget Responsibility, what is your | :25:42. | :25:44. | |
instinct? I would be surprised if that is wrong, there has been | :25:44. | :25:48. | |
negotiation. There has been a long standing desire from the | :25:48. | :25:50. | |
Conservatives to reduce marginal rates of tax. At the beginning of | :25:50. | :25:54. | |
the programme you said will there be cuts for taxes on well off | :25:54. | :25:57. | |
people? Almost certainly not. We haven't heard any of the other | :25:57. | :26:01. | |
things in the budget, it would be amazing to me if there weren't | :26:01. | :26:06. | |
rises for people at the top. could be politically toxic, what | :26:06. | :26:10. | |
are the risks for George Osborne in this, or does he think there are no | :26:10. | :26:14. | |
risks because the opposition is nowhere to be seen? No, there are | :26:14. | :26:18. | |
risks. The phrase that he is most associated with, as far as any | :26:18. | :26:22. | |
politician is associated with any phrase, is we are all in this | :26:22. | :26:27. | |
together. So when he, assuming he does this, announces a tax cut for | :26:27. | :26:31. | |
the most well off, it will take one heck of a lot of explanation. Danny | :26:31. | :26:35. | |
and others will say there is a valid explanation, but the | :26:35. | :26:39. | |
political risk is very high, to the extent that I know, people like Ed | :26:39. | :26:43. | |
Balls, who is an astute, whatever you think of his views, an astute | :26:43. | :26:48. | |
follower of the politics of tax, because he has been doing it since | :26:48. | :26:52. | |
1992, didn't think George Osborne would do this for his own political | :26:52. | :26:56. | |
sake. It looks as if they are going to do it. I think the immediate | :26:56. | :26:59. | |
political risks are very large, the only way you could do it | :26:59. | :27:04. | |
politically is if it actual lie works. If you believe -- actually | :27:04. | :27:09. | |
works. If you believe that cutting the rates work, and it produces | :27:09. | :27:15. | |
greater growth, then it will be political credit, but in the end | :27:15. | :27:19. | |
that is how people will make the judgments. Immediately it is hard | :27:19. | :27:22. | |
to argue with that judgment, that it will be politically very | :27:22. | :27:28. | |
difficult. How important is it that it hasn'ted very much money? That | :27:28. | :27:33. | |
will be -- hasn't raised very much money? That will be difficult, to | :27:33. | :27:39. | |
make the argument that it was right and it raises nothing. If you can | :27:39. | :27:43. | |
go with that argument. It is premature, George Osborne announced | :27:43. | :27:47. | |
the review as to whether it raised money, after the first year, | :27:47. | :27:52. | |
apparently, it will form a policy decision on that basis. That is | :27:53. | :27:56. | |
pretty difficult. The OBR and other organisation also try to model it, | :27:56. | :27:59. | |
it will be a very important part of the argument, whether it raises | :27:59. | :28:03. | |
money. And also the other parts of the argument, which is who else's | :28:03. | :28:07. | |
tax will be cut, and what other taxes are going to be raised on | :28:07. | :28:10. | |
well-off people. You have said it won't be a net tax cut for the | :28:11. | :28:15. | |
wealthy, do you think it has to go with a tax cut for lower income | :28:15. | :28:18. | |
households? We do definitely know something will happen on this, Nick | :28:19. | :28:23. | |
Clegg has said so clearly that he wants that cut, in fact, the | :28:23. | :28:28. | |
Chancellor has committed himself in the first budget to do that each | :28:28. | :28:33. | |
year that is part of the coalition agreement. We will definitely see | :28:33. | :28:37. | |
that, it is guess work, you have to think it is unlikely to see | :28:37. | :28:43. | |
reductions in tax for top rates. It will be about tax rates. You talk | :28:43. | :28:47. | |
about the political risk of this, if you were George Osborne you | :28:47. | :28:50. | |
could look at the last week, Labour's big week on the economy | :28:50. | :28:54. | |
and think it hasn't gone anywhere? I didn't even know it was a big | :28:54. | :28:59. | |
week, in advance it was meant to be a big week. I think there are | :28:59. | :29:02. | |
political risks. What is really interesting now about budgets in | :29:02. | :29:05. | |
general, but this one specifically, it is nearly all about the politics. | :29:05. | :29:09. | |
As you know better than anyone in the studio, policy announcements on | :29:09. | :29:14. | |
the economy are made all the time, quanative easing, you know, the | :29:14. | :29:17. | |
autumn statement and so on. The budget, actually what we are | :29:17. | :29:23. | |
talking about is about a billion here or there. Do you think this is | :29:23. | :29:26. | |
a distraction? It is highly political. Do you think some of it | :29:26. | :29:28. | |
is a distraction from the big picture that the economy is not | :29:28. | :29:31. | |
doing well? All that matters is what works at the end of the day. | :29:31. | :29:35. | |
People don't follow the ins and outs of the budgets and follow what | :29:35. | :29:39. | |
politicians say. The only thing that matters is does it improve | :29:39. | :29:42. | |
growth. The political signals people pick up from Wednesday, that | :29:42. | :29:44. | |
is why it is significant and dangerous. Thank you very much. | :29:44. | :29:49. | |
Before we take a look atom morning's front pages, matter that | :29:49. | :29:55. | |
is in Glasgow with tonight's review show. | :29:55. | :30:00. | |
Coming up on the review show, Douglas Adams buys a zoo, we move | :30:00. | :30:10. | |
:30:10. | :30:31. | ||
from Downing Streeten to to the The story leaked about the budget | :30:31. | :30:34. | |
for national pay rates for civil servants and maybe other public | :30:34. | :30:38. | |
sector workers too. Same story in the Guardian about | :30:38. | :30:45. | |
having regional pay. That's all from Newsnight, on the | :30:45. | :30:49. | |
eve of what will be another Welsh Grand Slam, probably, we will leave | :30:49. | :30:57. | |
you with one of their legends, Mervyn Davies, who died today, Merv | :30:57. | :31:02. |