11/04/2012 Newsnight

On tonight's programme, will Spain be the straw that breaks the back

of the euro? Titanic power struggles at the very

top in China. We talk to senator John McCain on

how to stop Bashar al-Assad murdering his citizens. And our

political editor learns that David Cameron has been asked by the

United Nationss to rewrite the Millennium Development Goals.

As elections loom, the President of France fights for his political

life, what can he honestly claim as a core conviction?

He is one of the most amazing friends you may have in life. But I

must say the core belief is not his cup of tea.

In all the hoo ha about pasties and petrol, and how good it is for the

rich in Britain, we have taken our eye off the crisis in Euroland, it

hasn't gone away. It rather resembles Jesus' description of the

poor, always with us. Spain is far bigger deal than Greece and the

financial markets are plainly unconvinced by what the Government

says it will do to sort out its massive debts. We will speak with

the Spanish Ambassador, but first, we have this report.

Greece may have monopolised the headlines in the crisis so far, but

Spain is now a genuine concern. Its economy is huge and it is in free

fall. Unemployment is the highest in the developed world, industrial

output is fall, and austerity almost as draconian as Greece, is

on its way. And the Prime Minister, jog jog jog,

after admitting Spain -- -- today lashed out at his EU neighbours,

particularly Italy, for stoking up market fears. TRANSLATION: I wish

to say the following with regard to some statements made in the EU,

more explicitly last night by some EU leaders. We hope they assume

their responsibilities and are much more cautious in their statements.

We don't talk about other countries, we wish other EU and eurozone

countries the best. What is good for Spain is good for the eurozone.

He and his centre right party were elected over four months ago with a

resounding majority, much of that was due to the intense dislike of

the outgoing socialist, that a ground dwell in favour of the

slightly dour Rajoy. None of them will accuse him of sugar coating

the austerity pill. Is he burning through his political capital as he

tries to right the Spanish ship? He's coming short of delivering the

goods by what we have seen so far. It is clear with the market

turbulence in the last few days, that the markets think it is not

enough. Spain has serious problems, both in the banking sector and the

public sector finances. Both balance sheets of the banking

sector and the public sector are hard to disentangle, as a result we

have a crisis of confidence in the ability of Spain to restore growth,

and so we are in trouble. Like Ireland, Spain's problem was a

massive property bubble that burst, that collapse has dragged the

national Government down with it. Unlike Ireland, Spain has yet to

bite the bullet on wholesale reform of its banks. Especially its

regional savings banks. The problem with the Spanish debt

mountain is it is more akin to the iceberg, what you see on the

surface is the money owed by the national Government, and doesn't

include the money borrowed, from places like the City of London, by

regional parliaments and Governments. The debt to GDP ratio

for the federal Government is GDP, the figure for Catalonia is closer

to 120%, that is a problem that needs solving soon. Recognition of

the indebtedness of the regions in Spain is a major problem that

probably hasn't been fully discounted into the financial

markets at this stage. I think the market is going to come to an

estimate for all of Spain bailout on a regional level. That could be

the straw that breaks the camel's back in terms of the need for

European public financing. Spain disappeared off our eurozone

radars for a few months, because the market were stewfied by cheap

EC money. The benchmark cost of borrowing for Spain had been rising

steadily until last November, before falling dramatically when

the first wave of cheap loans were offered. The process was repeated

at the end of February, that pushed down yields. Now it looks like the

drug is wearing off, and Spain might soon be doing very cold

turkey, making the possibility of a bailout very real. Does the

eurozone even have the money to bail out its fourth-largest member.

If it happens in the next few months, I think the Europeans will

be approaching it on a piecemeal level. They will be addressing the

specifics of say the Cajas, or the regions, as long as it is done on a

step-by-step basis, there is ample funding now. If you were look, say,

and had a time machine, and were to look backwards at the all-inclusive

costs of the bailout, what it ultimately might cost for the

Europeans, you probably wouldn't have that amount of funding

available at this stage. But while Brussels and Berlin check

their wallets, they will, no doubt, be asking whether the Spanish

populus has the stomach for the drop in living standards demanded.

It will be difficult in Spain, especially because any cuts in

health and education will hit with the regional Governments and that

will create a lot of anger and intense sentiment. We are already

seeing the regions claiming their territory, and saying they will not

take those cuts. It is going to be much harder than in a smaller and

more centralised country like Greece or Portugal.

If you were to take a glass half full attitude, you might say that

Mr Rajoy's comments of late are a political ruse to soften up the

Spanish public. If your glass is half empty, you could view the

recent events in Spain as a restarting of the European crisis

and one that could have far worse impact for the rest of us. Here to

talk about Spain's financial turmoil is the spannic ambassador

to the UK. This assurance that your economics minutes -- Spanish

Ambassador to the UK. This assurance that your economics

minister has given, that there is no need for a rescue at this time,

how long is that valid for? I hope forever. But there is no guarantee,

is there? There is no guarantee of anything. We know that the eurozone

is undergoing a difficult situation, we know that Spain has a fragile

economy, but Spain is doing all it takes, and is prepared to do all it

takes to avoid a rescue and bailout. There has been a pattern of finance

ministers, or prime ministers, saying we do not envisage any need

for a rescue, and then the rest cue, of course, happens. It happened --

rescue, of course, happens. It happened in Portugal and Greece,

and in Ireland, two days after the Prime Minister said there was no

need for it. The Finance Minister has to deny. But in our case, let's

see, we have no big auction, no big bond auctions coming up now. More

or less we have the impression it will be fully subscribed, and then

the next time is in July. Our situation is difficult, we are

struggling, it is not, the Spanish economy is not the only one in

Europe that is struggling. But, the Government is taking all the

measures that we think are needed to ensure first that no bailout is

necessary, and second, to pave the way for economic growth in the near

future. We know that we are going to contract, our economy is going

to contract. We will come to growth in a minute

or two, there is a really big problem here, isn't there? How much

of public spending is actually controlled by central Government?

Much more than is thought here, central Government controls about

70 %. That means there is 30% or more that is not under the control

of central Government, and is...Well, But regional Governments

are under the control of some of the big parties, and both of them

are committed. No, there is no doubt, there is full commitment by

all, both the central Government, and the regional Government. Is it

not the case when Catalonia, for example, was asked to reduce its

budget deficit to 1.3%, it said it can't do that and it will go to

2.6%, and came in at 3.7%? Perhaps not that much. But Catalonia has

taken huge measure, and will continue to take huge measures. In

Catalonia the Government has taken measures concerning the health

system, public servants' pay, and they are prepared to take those

measures. Let's look at the question of growth, then, you say

that will be the solution, half of young people in Spain under the age

of 25 are unemployed, aren't they, how do you get growth when you have

that sort of problem? A huge problem we have. Unemployment.

Perhaps our biggest problem. Depending on the way you look at it,

the problem is not as big as it looks. Yes, if you take, for

instance, a number of hours actually worked in the economy, if

you take the percentage of the total possible hours worked, in

Germany, for instance, you will see that out of the total number of

hours that all people between 15-65 could work, they work 52% of the

hours. In France 46%, in Spain 48%. So we have a huge problem, because

our labour laws don't allow for part-time jobs, things like this.

But the Government has taken both measures to correct this.

Thank you very much. Now, as mysteries go, it takes some

beating, a charismatic political lead e tipped as a future leader of

the most populus nation on earth is sacked, his wife accused of

involvement in the mysterious death of an Englishman. The Chinese state

media did what they were told and justified the removal of the rising

star, Mr. Something very unusual has happened, it is not easy to

find out the details of what and why. In this ancient Chinese game,

the object is to surround your opponent, to make his next move

impossible and eliminate him. Now, amid allegations of murder, it

looks like China's leaders are playing the game for real.

Chongqing, a city of 30 million, ruled until now, by one man.

Capitol Hill Capitol Hill Capitol Hill, rose through - Bo Xilai rose

through the ranks and taught people to sing revolutionary songs. He's

an unusual politician in China. If China were a democracy, Bo Xilai

would probably stand a very good chance of being elected. He can

connect with people. He cracked down hard on organised crime, he

appealed in a sort of populist way to Maoist traditional feelings in

China. This year, with an imminent change

in the party leadership, Bo looked set to win a place within the inner

core of the Politburo. Now he would be lucky to avoid criminal charges.

China's leaders are halved between the Communist Party and those who

are rhetorical, left-wing, hardliners, a game actually played

out. Bo threatened to play it out in public, and with mass

participation. But somebody, somewhere, made a fatal false move.

Last November, Neil Heywood, a British businessman and friend of

Bo Xilai, was found dead in a hotel in Chongqing, the authorities

claimed it was alcohol poisoning, his body was cremated without

autopsy. Then, in February, this man, Wang

Lijun, Bo security chief, entered a US kol sul late building to claim

political asylum. He claimed he was investigating the death and had

discovered evidence that angered Bo and feared for his life. After the

Chinese premier criticised Bo, he was striped of his title, and his

wife named as the chief suspect in the murder. Others are convinced

there is a bigger story. This is not a murder case, even though

somebody might or might not have been murdered, we don't know if Mr

Heywood was murdered. The whole thing is largely political, it

started with Mr Bo's top Lieutenant going to the US consulate to seek

political asylum, which would then make him a traitor, and therefore

provide the opportunity for Mr Bo's enemies in the top leadership to

strike him down. When Mr Bo lost his job, as the party secretary in

Chongqing. The British Government, which has been pressing for an

investigation into Neil Heywood's death, welcomed the move. On the

case of Neil Heywood, we did ask the Chinese to hold an

investigation, and we are pleased that they are now doing that. And

we stand ready to co-operate in any way we can. I think it is important

we get to the truth about what happened in this very disturbing

case, very tragic case. But where does this leave the west's wider

relationship with China. This man spend 30 years at the Foreign

Office covering the country. Do you think the west gives credence to

the essential story? In a sense you have to. Because the mind boggles

at anything else. But there are huge gaps in that story, quite why

people acted as they did, quite what the falling out was over. Why

someone as powerful as Bo Xilai's wife, let alone himself, should

feel it necessary to have this really unfortunate businessman,

Neil Heywood, murdered, it is extraordinary, what can drive

someone to do that. And to expect that they can get away with it,

that is the sort of arrogance of power, that is one of the worries I

think that the Chinese Communist Party have. If these people can

behave like that to a foreigner, how on earth are they behave to go

the people of China. When you meet Chinese officials, they will

sometimes speak quietly about this division within the party. They

assume the power blocks could co- exist together, and all

transsignificants of power at the top would be orderly and negotiate

-- transitions of power at the top would be orderly and negotiated.

The strange case of Bo Xilai, to put it mildly, complicates things.

What we are, in fact, seeing, is the kind of old fashioned court

politics, that would one perhaps have seen in the European court,

400 or 500 years ago. We are not seeing China moving in the

direction of institutionalisation of its politics, that everybody

would like to see. The events in Chongqing remain like

the city, shrouded in fog. What is clear is for the first time since

1989, there is a split in the leadership. And how the game ends

is unpredictable. With us to discuss the many

mysteries of the story are Martin Jakes, author of When China Rules

the world, Dr Linda Lui, and the professor of international politics

at the University of Bristol. How significant an event is this?

very important, because ever since Tiananmen Square, and when the

general secretary was turfed out by Xaoping, there hasn't been anything

like this at the highest level, nearly the highest level of Chinese

politics. Bo Xilai is clearly meeting his political demise, but,

the backdrop to all of this is a major struggle taking place in the

Chinese leadership, over the leadership emerging from the party

conference in autumn, and secondly, over the policies to be pursued by

the new leadership. Do you see it in much the same terms as a power

stringle? It definitely reflects the fact that the Communist Party

within itself has had a number of factions. It is just the glimpse we

are getting, that is interesting. Is it ideolgical, or just about

naked power? Well, if I had to venture a punt on that, I would say

naked power. Bo Xilai was associated with a lot more moves

towards a state-led, investment model. He was popular, in the sense

that he was talking about a -- an era of equality which a lot of

Chinese people like because of the inequality. If you strip it back,

he was clearly somebody who was a rising star. But the last time I

was in China, that most policy makers knew who the next generation

of leaders would be, he was josling for position. Do you think we will

see -- Josling for position. Do you think we will see more? This is not

the end of the scandal of this event that we are looking at now.

What is interesting, of course, is this drama, attached today this,

partly because of this murder case, and also the defection of the

police chief, again and also involving a murder of a foreign

national, which is a British businessman. All we see when we see

the Chinese leadership s late middleaged men, in identical suits,

using identical hair dye. It opens up something fascinating. They are

not middleaged, they are all in their 60s. This is part of the

political transition we are looking at. It is certainly not, as has

been comment, this is not what we have anticipated. We all thought at

some stage that the political axe sgs in China was happening, and --

accession in China was happening, and this fourth or fifth generation

transition would be smooth, now we don't know what is next. It is

taking place in a completely changed world, which people are

tweeting and communicating, social media and all the rest. It is

fascinating. One thing that is very interesting, is the extent to which

this has become public, and it is being discussed and known about in

real time, as opposed to way after the event, which used to be much

more the case. What is this a result of? It is the result of the

opening up of Chinese society, internet, microblogs, a less

sensored media, and so on. Now -- censored media, and so on. Now the

Chinese have more access to the key debates. This is a big problem for

the leadership, if people know about it? Yes, I think one of the

issues here is they are going to have to get used to T increasing

transparency is -- to it, increasing transparency is

something they can't return the clock back on. It is such high

publicity, involving a foreigner, and there will be more instances

where China will have to become more open about the kinds of issues

that this case poses, corruption, succession, responsiveness,

ideology, development, these are all things, as they become more

globally integrated, foreign investors, foreigners dealing with

China, will want to see more and they will have to respond to that.

We will come to that in a minute or two. Do you know anything about how

it is being seen seen within China? You have a whole spectrum of

different opinions, obviously. You have some kind of supporters of Bo

Xilai's policies, the policies for equal and social justice, that

Linda has just commented on. Also you have the other spectrum, which

obviously looks at his manoeuvring for leadership position. So you

have a spectrum of, which is reflected in the microblock, and

the comments. You have billions of people using, 250 people -- 250

million people using that. Everybody is talking about Bo Xilai,

and what led to his downfall, and what this tells them about Chinese

politics. Then we have this intriguing element of this

unfortunate man who died in China, the circumstances are very opaque.,

given that the economy so much depends, upon, or has depended on

western involvement, not perhaps the primary challenge now, what

will it do to the way western businesses regard China? How they

handle it will be crucially important. This does come on the

back of the executive of Mr Hu, imprisoned in China a few years ago.

The ability of the Chinese Government to continue to show,

even if they are not an and democracy, but have increasingly

improved rule of law and transparency of that process, will

be crucial. If you look at what China needs now, I would say they

need global integration, beau the reason they have grown so quickly

is because they integrated and caught up on manufacturing, the

next phase of growth requires doing the same thing on services. That

means for moreeners, more engagment with the global market. I think one

of the things that China has lagged behind on is reforming rule of law

to catch up with the economic reforms. The fact that his wife has

been arrested, is she going to get a fair trial. Is the arrest an

indication of guilt, how does it work? Obviously they have very

strong evidence, we could see from the report, even by the Chinese

media, and from the police chief, you know, we don't really know what

he has talked with the American consulate. From the reports from

the Chinese media they already have some kind of evidence. This case

will be cut niceed, not only by chine -- scrutinised, not only by

the Chinese media, but globally. I would expect a rather fair trial of

this particular case, at least. the outcome in doubt, the outcome

of the trial? Why should it be in doubt. So the judiciary is

independent? Well, I think they will present this as independent,

as they possibly can. This has a lot to do with the image of China.

How do you think the trial will go? I wouldn't be too optimistic,

myself. But I think that if they have already arrested her, they

have said she is being held by the judicial authorities, that is the

phrase. I think that they have already, and what they have already

put out about it, for the murder of Neil Heywood and so on. I think

that it is going, she will be found guilty. And she may well be guilty,

I think she will be found guilty. The Syrian Government, if you can

believe them. Says its guns will fall silent at dawn tomorrow. The

time specified for a ceasefire by the United Nations' representative

in the region. The regime reserved the right, though, to resume

killing its own citizens, if it faced any opposition. It didn't

undertake to one of the requests to withdraw troops from built-up areas.

Western countries wring their hands, unable to agree what to do, and

knowing the Syrian regime has the support of Russia on the UN

Security Council. Speaking tonight, Hillary Clinton, expressed unease

about whether the ceasefire in Syria would hold. We are alarmed

for the on going violence in Syria, we are concerned about the problems

facing special envoy, Kofi Annan, as he attempts to bring about a

ceasefire. Senator John McCain has just visited the Syrian border, he

can talk to us from Arizona. Let me play devil's advocate, Syria is a

sovereign country, there are serious problems of unrest on the

streets there. Why is the regime there not to be allowed to deploy

its own forces to restore law and order? Because according to

international law, and all norms of behaviour, is Governments are not

allowed to massacre their own citizens, especially in the wanton

way that the Bashar al-Assad's regime is conducting itself. It is

a violation of UN charters, other provisions of international law.

What help do you propose that the rest of the world gives the rebels?

Well, first of all, we have to understand it's not a fair fight.

Russian arms are pouring in to Syria. Iranians are not only

providing them with assistance in a material way, there are Iranians on

the ground, they are helping them with the terrible obscene murder,

rape, torture that is going on. And so, it is not a fair fight. It is a

fight. What we need to do is give them weaponry, and by the way, we

can find ways to get the weapons to them, I met with two military

leaders of the Free Syrian Army, right across the border from Syria

in tuarky. We can get them that -- Turkey, we can get them the

equipment and can help with medical care. The Turkish are talking about

a sanctuary for the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian National

Council, so they can organise, so they can come together, and they

can resist in a co-ordinated fashion. That would be a sanctuary

within Syria? Not necessarily. I think it could be a sanctuary

across the borders of one of the neighbouring countries.

Would you be in favour of western forces protecting that sanctuary?

Yes I would. I know that many people are watching now saying we

don't know who they are, we don't know how to do it, that this is a

very difficult situation, Americans are war-weary, I have heard all of

those arguments, I heard them with Libya and Bosnia, and Kosovo. But

the fundamental belief that we share is that Governments should

not be allowed to massacre their own people. If we can do something

about it. There is plenty to do about it. As I said, it is an

unfair fight. How long do you expect the ceasefire to last,

briefly? Maybe 15-minutes. Because the people will take to the streets

again, and peacefully demonstrate, and Bashar al-Assad cannot tolerate

that. Already they have imposed conditions which are clearly

unacceptable. Mr Annan, I think, is dwelling in a different parallel

universe, when he says that he's worried about the militarisation of

the conflict. Thank you very much indeed, thank

you. They were the boast of the United

Nations, enthusiastically embraced as a mission for Governments the

world over, and providing the Department of Development in this

country a reason to exist. They are the Millennium Development Goals,

the agreement of 200 countries, that they would mark the end of the

century by ending extreme poverty, and improving women's rights.

Nobody questioned the noblity of the aim. But Newsnight has learned

that David Cameron has been asked to redraft those goals.

What's going on? He will redraft them. It will be nonsensical if the

UK did it on its own, given the nature of the goals. I have been

told it is highly likely a country like Brazil will co-chair it, there

may be others, it is certainly the UK at the moment. It will be

announced next week, it is within the gift of the UN, and we can't

just take it ourselves. In the words of the cabinet minister for

international development, the UK is a development superpower, it is

what we do. We do a lot of these around. We don't always get it

right, we are trusted with technical projects, it is seen that

we understand what we are doing, that is why we are being given a

role in drafting new versions. is going to happen to the goals?

the moment, if you look at them, there is one to reduce infant

mortality, an aim for primary education, but not secondary.

Decrease malaria within countries. People say these are sword of

secondary issues, incredibly important -- sort of secondary

issues, incredibly important, but not the way to improve the

situation of a country. As an NGO you go into a country and sort that

out, but not as a national leader within that country do that sort of

things necessarily on your own. What they are trying to do is push

for economic development to be at the heart of these new goals. For

instance, it is long argued that you should have property rights as

one of the ambitions, so you actually have people with assets

who can develop on their own within a country, and things like primary

and secondary education flowing from it. That is what the

Government thinks. What do you think it will look like if the

Government gets their way? Some of them we see today will go, some are

meaningless. There will be the property rights, an emphasis on

reducing trade barriers within continents like Africa. There might

be an assertion of job creation and wealth creation, this is much more

in terms it of all those boats being lifted by rising tides, that

old proverb. That is not liked by many people. Also, really critical,

there will be, and bear in mind this is the beginning of a

consultation process, that everyone will kick off on. There might be

some emphasis on conditionality. The idea at the moment these goals

are meaningless, because people have to do them rather than aid

being linked to it, maybe that should change in the future, as

what People of Freedom in Government do think. The shadow of

the -- People in Government do think.

In France each of those want to go win the presidency, darkly warned

the French people of what might happen if they return the wrong

conclusion to return the men in built-up heels. President Sarkozy

has rained over the loss of the trip all A rating, his opposition

say they can return that. How will Sarkozy try to save his presidency?

A few hours east of Paris, deep in rural France, there is a shrine, to

a man and his ideology. General Charles de Gaulle lived and

died here, leaving behind a powerful idea of France.

His views on how the country should be run are still so influential

that, apparently, his heir as leader of the Gaullist movement,

comes here to commune with his spirit. TRANSLATION: President

Sarkozy often comes alone to this place, it is for him, as it was for

General de Gaulle, an ideal place for reflection. Learning about de

Gaulle is part of the syllabus for French schools. To these children,

he was a war leader, who embodied national unity.

Later, they learn about how he put France on the European and world

stage, as well as fostering a welfare state. Today, Nicolas

Sarkozy, cites de Gaulle often, but is that anything more than here

lip-service. At the start of his foof-year term, he seemed determine

to -- five-year term, he seemed determine a new politics,

determined to shake up the state in his presidency. The way he started

as President was childish, he gave the impression was playing with

power, and Nicolas Sarkozy almost never envokes the greatness of

France. La grandeur, like de Gaulle says,

it is not in his project. Nevertheless, he certainly

considers Germany and France as the leaders, the legitimate leaders of

Europe. President de Gaulle had a very

well-defined idea of what France should represent, and of its place

at the head of the nations of Europe. But today, as the country

heads for presidential elections, its national self-confidence has

been bat bird the economic crisis. And the standard bearer of Gaullism,

President Sarkozy, is accused of losing his way, and not knowing

what on earth he stands for. Sarkozy Askam pain styles are a

world away from -- Sarkozy's campaign styles are a world away

from the country ways, and General de Gaulle. Most French people want

to protect their own lifestyle, the President is behind in the polls.

His position is hardly helped by the message that gaining economic

vitally will require them to adopt foreign models. In Europe there is

two models. The Swedish model and German model, cutting spending and

reforming our economy, so it will be more competitive. That is, of

course, a German or Sweden model. There is another model, it has

become the Greek model, it is a model where you choose to make even

more spending during the following years, and making more spending,

you raise taxes to, I don't know, rocketing level. And this is not

the good model. President Sarkozy started this

contest far behind in the polls. So he unleashed a series of messages

about security, immigration, and identity, that were designed to

bring him support from the far right. But in the process he has

alienated many in the centre and on the left, who say he's ignoring the

real issues people say they care about in polls, as well as

discarding the Gaullist tradition of national unity.

We are social and democratic people. Gaullist and communist agree about

that, de Gaulle says, at this time, we don't discriminate people from

origin, race and religion. Sarkozy, it is the end of Gaullism. It is

the death of all this tradition in the right in France.

Even so, Socialist Party leader, Francois Hollande, is still set to

beat Sarkozy in any run-off. He's a sort of Ed Milliband, in wonkiness,

only the polls suggest Hollande is a winner. He promises to keep the

French model welfare state alive, even if it means renegotiating the

European austerity deal that Sarkozy signed up to in December.

Monsieur Hollande's supporters suggest that would not bring

disaster. If he's elected, far from being certain, I'm sure the first

thing he will do is ask for a report on the real situation of the

French finances. And act accordingly. I will advice him to

do it so, the only -- advise him to do it so, the only way not to bear

the burden of the cuts will be to do it immediately, just after the

election. I'm sure he will do it. I'm sure, by the way, that Sarkozy

will do it also. Further to the left of Hollande, this man seeks to

protect the French social model with the same steely determination,

at which he coraled the press at his policy launch.

Jean-Luc Melenchon represents the left front. He's against the

Americans, NATO, the markets and the EU. TRANSLATION: Of course it

is complicated, and I don't hide from you that when it was present

today me, I felt it contains a vision I like to call Jacobean, it

is not an insult but honour to be called that. It is extraordinary

after two hours of listening to Mr Melenchon how extensively his ideas

about what France should stand for, are informed by ideas of

exceptionalism. France's unique place in the world, that really go

back to General de Gaulle, and a certain type of nationalism, which

I don't think many of us would expect to see on what formally

would have been -- formerly would have been called the far left. His

rejection of austerity, has contributed to a steady rise in the

polls. TRANSLATION: Austerity is a

strategy of international finance that is shared by French liberals,

we say the Anglo-Saxons like facts. The fact is austerity will release

a recession in all of Europe, which will lead us into a disaster, by

keeping down the salaries of the working-class and maximising

profits. The critque of President Sarkozy extends to his probity too.

At Mediapart, an on-line newspaper, they have accused the President of

taking contributions from Libya and big business during his 2007

campaign. At the morning meeting, they follow

this contest, arguing that Sarkozy has to win to stay ahead of the

investigators. You know, in France, the President

has traditional immunity, if he loses, all of it must come, the

cabinet and I must ask some questions. Because all the figures

are very surprising. It is not small money. It is millions. Many

millions of euros. The murders in Toulouse were seen

by some as a game changer. In his role as President, he attended

memorial events, and articulated the nation's outrage. He also

played -- it also played into Sarkozy's security agenda, allowed

him to rise above the funding allegations, he denies them any way,

and final low demonstrate the maturity of his years in the top

job. Everybody was standing still behind the President to say, we are

all French, and this is the French people, and we will resist violence,

we will resist hatred, that was the message of the President, and he

was really the President of all the French people. You can observe an

important change. The first year of his presidency was very agitated,

and he was exposing his personal life and in fact, this agitation

has largely stopped. At his campaign rallies, this one

for the party youth movement, President Sarkozy emphasises

experience, and competence. If these people loved it, the

public is more skept quell. So the negative -- sceptical, so the

negative campaign tactics extend to suggesting the front runner,

Francois Hollande, could destroy international economic confidence

in France. Francois Hollande has a problem, for me, of credibility. On

financial issues, deficit issues, and international issues.

But what of Sarkozy himself? And his many presidential significant

zags on policy? REPORTER: A moment for the BBC?

The critics argue that he's an opportunist who lacks an ideolgical

core, goalist or otherwise. Nicolas Sarkozy is a very close friend of

mine for 30 years, and I like him very much as a friend. He's one of

the most amazing friends you may have in life. But I must say the

core belief is not his cup of tea. That's all I can say. If I may add

something, I would say he's a lawyer. What is a lawyer? Someone

who can...Argue Any position? In this election the public seems

to be rallying behind those who say they will protect the Gaullist idea

of France. Nicolas Sarkozy, on the other hand, has used the language

of austerity, and that's made him distinctly suspect to many voters.

That's quite enough excitement for Sun yie for some, wet for others,

it -- sunny for some, wet for others, it depend where you live.

Huge variations in the weather on Thursday as for Wednesday. It looks

as if the more central and eastern parts of England in particular will

catch the heaviest of the downpours, thunder, lightning and hail. Slow

moving too, one or two places will avoid the worst of those showers,

if I was to stick my neck out, parts of western England will fare

better. Parts of sunny Devon and Cornwall seeing a largely bright

afternoon. Not helping the temperatures, 10-11 at best. When

the showers come along, they will be distinctly cold. For Northern

Ireland avoiding showers, cool in the breeze, that will be the

message for Scotland as well. Sunshine for the western Highlands,

cold, and breezy across the far north-east. Things getting colder.

Day by day, again, a mixture of sunshine and showers, difficult to

pinpoint who will fare best. Cater for a shower or two, and you won't

be desapoifrpbted. Showers -- disappointed. Showers turning