Browse content similar to 30/05/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
Line | From | To | |
---|---|---|---|
Hello, within weeks, Greece could have tumbled, stalked, or been | :00:13. | :00:18. | |
chucked out of the euro. An intense nervousness, panic in some places, | :00:18. | :00:22. | |
is at large. All of us will be affected. Tonight, how it could | :00:22. | :00:26. | |
happen and what will be the consequences. If Spain falls apart, | :00:26. | :00:30. | |
will the face of Europe be changed forever. We have the Nobel Prize- | :00:30. | :00:34. | |
winning economist, Paul Krugman here, the Harvard economist, | :00:34. | :00:42. | |
Kenneth Rogoff, and from Athens, former Greece politician, Giorgos | :00:42. | :00:45. | |
Papakonstantinou. Many think that the Germans will | :00:45. | :00:48. | |
soon blink, that forcing Greece out of the euro will be unthinkable, | :00:48. | :00:52. | |
what if they are wrong? We will tackle the question whether | :00:52. | :00:55. | |
George Osborne's medicine for this country is not so quietly killing | :00:55. | :00:58. | |
the patient. The Government's central aim is to | :00:58. | :01:02. | |
cut the deficit and establish international credibility, what if | :01:02. | :01:04. | |
the eurozone crisis means they can do neither. | :01:05. | :01:08. | |
We will hear from Dublin, where they are being asked to vote for | :01:08. | :01:15. | |
long years of austerity, to atone for their bankers' sins. David | :01:15. | :01:18. | |
Cameron's former Director of Communications, Andy Coulson, has | :01:18. | :01:21. | |
been charged with perjury tonight, after being questioned by police in | :01:21. | :01:29. | |
Glasgow. We will have the latest. | :01:29. | :01:33. | |
The world's biggest company, ensuring people who export goods, | :01:33. | :01:36. | |
said today it was no longer covering anyone who wants to send | :01:36. | :01:40. | |
stuff to Greece. Nothing will change before the election there on | :01:40. | :01:44. | |
June 17th, and the latest opinion polls show the biggest parties in | :01:44. | :01:48. | |
favour and against the bail out are at absolutely level pegging. Which | :01:48. | :01:52. | |
is no help to anyone, really. In the meantime, there is talk of | :01:52. | :01:55. | |
power cuts because there is no money to pay energy suppliers. So | :01:55. | :02:01. | |
the rest of the eurozone, now contemplates something we were told | :02:01. | :02:07. | |
was inconceivably, recently, that like a bad kebab, Greece is vomited | :02:07. | :02:11. | |
out of the single currency. What happened today? Almost every day | :02:11. | :02:15. | |
brings headlines to which the subtext is, confusion, lack of | :02:15. | :02:22. | |
focus, unreality, incompetence, general clutching at straws, as the | :02:23. | :02:27. | |
train hurtles towards you. Today was no different. You mentioned | :02:27. | :02:32. | |
today that the Greek press got hold of a document to the Prime Minister | :02:32. | :02:36. | |
that they may face blackouts because they can't pay electricity | :02:36. | :02:40. | |
bills. We find out in the next 24 hours how much money has fled | :02:40. | :02:47. | |
Greece over the past week. We know if the -- in the past three months | :02:47. | :02:53. | |
58 million has fled Europe over the past few months. Spain is in | :02:53. | :02:55. | |
serious trouble and needs a bank bail out. There is the mechanism to | :02:55. | :02:59. | |
do, that the European Union has the money to do that. Right now Spain | :02:59. | :03:02. | |
doesn't want to take that money. It is saying, we don't want to be like | :03:02. | :03:05. | |
Ireland, we don't want to be the slaves of Europe. This is, of | :03:05. | :03:09. | |
course, on the eve, tomorrow, of the Irish referendum. Where the | :03:09. | :03:14. | |
Irish are going to sign up for an austerity deal that the Spanish | :03:14. | :03:18. | |
have just negotiated a one-year opt-out from, that is conyou fewed, | :03:18. | :03:24. | |
so is everybody else -- if that is confusing, so is everybody else. | :03:24. | :03:28. | |
Greece could leave the euro? Ever since the Brussels summit last week | :03:28. | :03:33. | |
the feeling is, most people think, look, Merkel is talking tough to | :03:33. | :03:39. | |
try to get Greek voters to go back to the centre. To recoil in horror | :03:39. | :03:43. | |
from any exit from the eurozone, so they vote how the European Union | :03:43. | :03:46. | |
would like them. Most people think, whether it is just before or just | :03:47. | :03:51. | |
after the elections, the Germans will have to relent and say it is a | :03:51. | :03:55. | |
bluff. And they will give the Greeks some extra time to pay, like | :03:55. | :03:58. | |
Spain, another year to meet the targets. That is what the money is | :03:58. | :04:02. | |
on at the moment. But, as we are about to see, the ability of | :04:02. | :04:07. | |
politicians to effect economics, ever since Lehman Brothers, has | :04:07. | :04:14. | |
been very limited. If Greece left the euro, the | :04:14. | :04:19. | |
reaction would be frantic. Every Government, every Central Bank, and | :04:19. | :04:24. | |
all financial markets would be faced with immediate choices. | :04:24. | :04:28. | |
But the first 48 hours of a Greek exit would depend on precisely why | :04:28. | :04:33. | |
the exit happened. Politically it is impossible to | :04:33. | :04:36. | |
expel Greece from the eurozone, and none of the parties likely to win | :04:36. | :04:41. | |
the election want to leave, including the left. So a Greek exit | :04:41. | :04:47. | |
would be messy. Driven by economics, driven by capital flight, bank run, | :04:47. | :04:52. | |
and the breakdown of cross-border payment mechanisms. If you lent | :04:52. | :04:57. | |
money in euros to Greece, and your debt is redenominated into drachmas, | :04:57. | :05:01. | |
which falls against the euros, you will get less money back. There is | :05:01. | :05:04. | |
also a significant likelihood that banks would go under in Greece, a | :05:04. | :05:08. | |
large number of companies would probably be bankrupt as well. So | :05:08. | :05:12. | |
there would be more straight forward forms of default as well. | :05:12. | :05:19. | |
With the far left riding high in the election. And the far right on | :05:20. | :05:23. | |
the March, any financial collapse would -- march, any financial | :05:23. | :05:26. | |
collapse would spell trouble. There is already trouble. | :05:26. | :05:30. | |
We have got total polarisation, we have an economic programme the | :05:31. | :05:34. | |
Greeks didn't vote for. We have violence in the streets. We have | :05:34. | :05:40. | |
got Neo-Nazis in parliament. That is before any problems of euro | :05:40. | :05:44. | |
exit? Yeah, absolutely. Before any problems of euro exit. The other | :05:44. | :05:48. | |
thing people say, it is awful, but it is awful now. | :05:48. | :05:52. | |
For London, as a financial centre, there would be deep concern. Not | :05:52. | :05:56. | |
over Greece, but over the three trillion euros worth of foreign | :05:56. | :06:02. | |
money sitting in Italy and Spain, which might leave. | :06:02. | :06:06. | |
The very sense of crisis and uncertainty, is jittering the | :06:06. | :06:10. | |
global markets, which is having an effect on our real economy. It is | :06:10. | :06:15. | |
not through trade or diplomatic links, and they would be deeply | :06:15. | :06:19. | |
concerned that the sense of instability would mean that any | :06:20. | :06:25. | |
other institution that was not completely 100% robust, would sense | :06:25. | :06:31. | |
the shockwaves and find themselves in a more perilous situation. | :06:31. | :06:35. | |
British banks' exposure to Greece is small. Exposure to sovereign | :06:35. | :06:44. | |
debt of Italy and Spain, is just over 10 million to Barclays, RBS | :06:44. | :06:48. | |
and HSBC, but it would decrease the value of eurobonds across the | :06:48. | :06:53. | |
eurozone. And here RBS, with 0 billion total exposure, is among | :06:53. | :06:58. | |
the highest in Europe. In the first 48 hours after a Greek exit, | :06:58. | :07:01. | |
everything would depend on preventing the financial collapse | :07:01. | :07:05. | |
of Spain. The money to do that exist, right now Spain is quibbling | :07:05. | :07:12. | |
over the terms of accepting it. As for Greece, it would face not | :07:12. | :07:15. | |
only banking and monetary chaos, its exports would more or less | :07:15. | :07:20. | |
double in cost, that is bad. There is a lot of fear. People are very, | :07:20. | :07:23. | |
very worried about this. It feels like falling off the edge of a | :07:23. | :07:28. | |
cliff to a lot of people. There is a lot of fear about poverty, about | :07:28. | :07:32. | |
hunger, about political chaos. Greece imports 40% of the food at | :07:32. | :07:37. | |
the moment. Almost all its medicines, all its oil. And as the | :07:37. | :07:41. | |
Greeks left, the credibility of the euro as a permanent currency union | :07:41. | :07:48. | |
would be shattered. Giorgos Papakonstantinou is in | :07:48. | :07:53. | |
Athens, where he was until recently a Government minister,'s now a | :07:53. | :07:57. | |
PASOK candidate in the forth coming elections, and taking an anxious | :07:57. | :08:02. | |
interest in things there. Paul Krugman is a Nobel Prize-winning | :08:02. | :08:08. | |
economist, who is betting on an exit from the euro zone. Do you | :08:08. | :08:12. | |
think as a currency the euro is worth saving? I think it is a | :08:12. | :08:17. | |
mistake, but it is a difficult thing to say it should never have | :08:17. | :08:21. | |
been done and it is likely to collapse. I would like to save the | :08:21. | :08:26. | |
euro. But I don't think Greece and the euro is a reasonable | :08:26. | :08:28. | |
proposition. Giorgos Papakonstantinou, why is leaving | :08:28. | :08:33. | |
the euro a bad idea from the Greek perspective? Well, first of all, | :08:33. | :08:38. | |
can I take issue with your bad kebab analogy, which I find | :08:38. | :08:41. | |
offensive. The Greek economy is in a crisis s the Greek people are | :08:41. | :08:46. | |
going through a lot, they deserve some respect. I really didn't find | :08:46. | :08:51. | |
that very appropriate. Coming to your question, leaving the euro | :08:51. | :08:56. | |
would lead to reduction with a GDP falling by over 20%. It would | :08:56. | :09:01. | |
double today's extremely high unemployment from 20% to over up to | :09:01. | :09:06. | |
40%. It would lead to a halving of living standards, and to widespread | :09:06. | :09:10. | |
poverty. Today's situation is very difficult and very bad, but leaving | :09:10. | :09:15. | |
the euro would lead the economy back to the 50s and 60s, that is | :09:15. | :09:20. | |
not something they would want to live through. I would support that, | :09:20. | :09:23. | |
that was quite inappropriate to say the Greeks have done something | :09:23. | :09:27. | |
terribly wrong, they made errors, but the trouble, the reason, it is | :09:27. | :09:31. | |
going to be awful, if Greece exits. It will be awful in the short run. | :09:31. | :09:34. | |
The trouble is the situation for Greece is hopeless, and I mean that | :09:34. | :09:40. | |
in a quite literal sense. Under the euro, there is nothing on the | :09:40. | :09:45. | |
horizon to suggest any recovery, ever. We are looking at extremely | :09:45. | :09:48. | |
high unemployment, being shut out of the capital markets, as far as | :09:48. | :09:52. | |
the eye can see. While an exit would be terrible, there would be, | :09:52. | :09:56. | |
you can see how a recovery could happen afterwards. I understand | :09:56. | :10:00. | |
that nobody wants to bite that bullet. Nobody wants to take that | :10:00. | :10:04. | |
decision. Which is why I think it is actually that the decision will | :10:04. | :10:10. | |
be take be out -- taken out of the hands of the politicians. If anyone | :10:10. | :10:16. | |
can give me any story where Greece returns to prosperity or a halfway | :10:16. | :10:19. | |
acceptable situation staying within the euro, I would be happy to | :10:19. | :10:23. | |
reconsider, I haven't seen that story. Can you imagine such a story, | :10:23. | :10:27. | |
Giorgos Papakonstantinou? I do, I deliver here with Paul, I think | :10:27. | :10:30. | |
that clearly we need much more time than what the current programme | :10:30. | :10:34. | |
gives us, to put the finances in order. But we are very close to | :10:34. | :10:38. | |
running a primary surplus. The main problem is the economy isn't | :10:38. | :10:41. | |
growing, and the economy isn't growing, it wasn't growing before | :10:41. | :10:46. | |
the bail out. We were actually in recession since 2008. Before we | :10:46. | :10:50. | |
started the austerity package. Clearly the austerity package has | :10:50. | :10:54. | |
made things much worse. We need growth. Growth needs to come with | :10:54. | :10:57. | |
the help of our European partners, through some kind of a growth | :10:57. | :11:02. | |
package. With confidence returning and investment flowing back in. We | :11:02. | :11:05. | |
have a privatisation programme, which should attract foreign | :11:05. | :11:09. | |
investment. For all this to work you have to have a stablised | :11:09. | :11:12. | |
situation, at the moment Europe is not giving the right signals. There | :11:12. | :11:17. | |
has been some progress in improving the institutional architecture, but | :11:17. | :11:22. | |
not enough. And the big moves have not been made yet. I'm hopeful that | :11:22. | :11:26. | |
there is a wind of change in Europe at the moment, following also the | :11:27. | :11:32. | |
French election, which will change the emphasis away from exclusively | :11:32. | :11:38. | |
looking at austerity, and balancing it more with growth, and having the | :11:38. | :11:42. | |
banks being able to bring the liquidity into the system. At the | :11:42. | :11:46. | |
moment you have both the demand not being there, because wages and | :11:46. | :11:52. | |
salaries have been cut, and a banking system not funking, which | :11:52. | :12:00. | |
doesn't provide working cap -- functioning which doesn't provide | :12:00. | :12:03. | |
working capital. How close are things to not working there? | :12:03. | :12:07. | |
have had a fragmented result, from an election, and we have an | :12:07. | :12:11. | |
election where the result is hanging in the air. The polls at | :12:11. | :12:19. | |
the moment give the Conservatives and the left parties pretty much | :12:19. | :12:26. | |
equal results. So it is touch and go, where this will go, it is clear | :12:26. | :12:29. | |
the problems are too big for one party to shoulder this. We tried | :12:29. | :12:34. | |
this for two years, we had an absolute majority in parliament and | :12:34. | :12:40. | |
we failed. That is the point, my sense is, in fact, the coalition in | :12:40. | :12:44. | |
Greece was doing all of the things it was asked to do. The trouble is | :12:44. | :12:48. | |
that was not producing growth. That nothing plausibly on the horizon | :12:48. | :12:54. | |
will produce growth. Even if the sternness of European austerity | :12:54. | :12:59. | |
demanded is lessened a bit, that will not provide growth. Greece is | :12:59. | :13:03. | |
highly uncompetitive in growth, the idea that you can close those | :13:03. | :13:06. | |
structural reforms in any time frame is unreasonable. Some of us | :13:06. | :13:11. | |
cut our teeth in way on the Argentine crisis more than a decade | :13:11. | :13:16. | |
ago. It was, in some ways, easier, because they had their own currency. | :13:16. | :13:20. | |
It was the same thing, there was no plausible route back to an | :13:20. | :13:23. | |
acceptable economic situation, except via devaluation. I think | :13:23. | :13:28. | |
that's going to be the case here. We just don't see how this can ever | :13:28. | :13:33. | |
be reinvolved, otherwise. Remember, however, in the last two years, we | :13:33. | :13:38. | |
clawed back the competition that was lost, in unit labour costs, | :13:38. | :13:43. | |
since the starting of the eurozone. Greece has some existing advantages, | :13:43. | :13:51. | |
like tourism and shipping, and some new ones like renewables, logistics. | :13:51. | :13:55. | |
It does have the natural resources, the people, the ideas, to move | :13:55. | :13:59. | |
forward. But it costs you power? keep the engine growing. | :14:00. | :14:04. | |
eventually you lost power? We did. I actually take the same view, I | :14:04. | :14:08. | |
think there is a lot of fundamental strengths, which are reasons why | :14:08. | :14:14. | |
Greece, after an exit might recover much more quickly than people think. | :14:14. | :14:17. | |
But the notion that the exports, essentially it will require exports, | :14:17. | :14:21. | |
one way or another, the notion that the exports will come on stream, | :14:21. | :14:27. | |
fast enough, with no, under the current regime, to avoid what is an | :14:27. | :14:33. | |
on going catastrophy becoming unmanageable. I hope and would love | :14:33. | :14:37. | |
to believe you are right. This is a horrible situation, it is a trap, | :14:37. | :14:41. | |
and not the fault of the Greeks for the most part. But, my God, how | :14:41. | :14:45. | |
much longer can this last, the action forcing the event will, of | :14:45. | :14:50. | |
course, be people pulling money out of Greek banks. The ECB has to | :14:50. | :14:54. | |
offer either unlimited credit, with no security, or pull the plug. | :14:54. | :14:58. | |
Maybe they will do that, maybe they will string it on for another year. | :14:58. | :15:04. | |
I find it hard to believe. You are geting any signs in Athens of | :15:04. | :15:10. | |
concessions about to be made to you? I think it is clear that the | :15:10. | :15:14. | |
troika is realising, also partly as a result of the election result, | :15:14. | :15:19. | |
but partly also, looking at the fundamentals of the economy, that | :15:19. | :15:23. | |
something has to give. If you ask any economist they will tell you | :15:23. | :15:28. | |
that the fiscal path we have been following is extreme. We reduced | :15:28. | :15:33. | |
the primary deficit by eight percentage points in two years. | :15:33. | :15:36. | |
That has never been done before. To continue on this path, without | :15:36. | :15:42. | |
giving it some slack, makes no sense. The more you hit on the | :15:42. | :15:45. | |
fiscal side, the more difficult structural reforms become. Because | :15:45. | :15:54. | |
the society is in such a difficult situation it is very hard to get | :15:54. | :15:59. | |
acceptance around necessary reforms, but reforms always have people who | :15:59. | :16:06. | |
oppose them. You do need, and the troika is ready to give, and the | :16:06. | :16:11. | |
European partners, thinking of Germany, because it comes down to | :16:11. | :16:15. | |
that, certainly some leeway of the base on the fiscal side. And | :16:15. | :16:16. | |
hopefully on some other issues as well. | :16:17. | :16:20. | |
Thank you very much. Only a fool would predict precisely how this | :16:20. | :16:25. | |
crisis will end, but Greece is far from the end of the story. The | :16:25. | :16:28. | |
interest the Spanish Government has to pay to borrow money reached | :16:28. | :16:32. | |
record levels today, because so many people who ought to know, | :16:32. | :16:37. | |
seriously doubt whether it has the wherewithal to keep the country's | :16:37. | :16:42. | |
banks afloat. Spain, the fourth- biggest economy in the eurozone, | :16:42. | :16:45. | |
threatens the entire edifice, it is not about individual countries but | :16:45. | :16:52. | |
whether the euro itself can be rescued. | :16:52. | :16:56. | |
Imagine this, it is six months on from the Greek exit, it has been | :16:56. | :17:01. | |
orderly, negotiated, there has been no euro crash. But on the housing | :17:01. | :17:07. | |
estates of peripheral Europe, things are very bleak. | :17:07. | :17:12. | |
I think six months after a Greek exit we would still be in a period | :17:12. | :17:15. | |
of economic and financial uncertainty and weakness. Our | :17:15. | :17:19. | |
expectation is that the economy would contract, fairly sharply, we | :17:19. | :17:23. | |
would expect the eurozone GDP to drop something like 5%, on a par | :17:23. | :17:27. | |
what we saw during the global recession of a couple of years ago. | :17:27. | :17:30. | |
If all that looks bleak, it is possibly the best you could hope | :17:30. | :17:34. | |
for if Greece exits, because a disorderly exit could, six months | :17:34. | :17:42. | |
down the line, pose severe threats to the entire europroject. The | :17:42. | :17:46. | |
biggest systemic risk is Spain, its economy is shrinking now, its | :17:46. | :17:51. | |
sovereign debt already verging on unmanageable, its banking sector | :17:51. | :17:56. | |
sitting on a mountain of bad debt that nobody wants to calculate. | :17:56. | :18:04. | |
think there is a serious chance that the eurozone could break up. | :18:04. | :18:12. | |
There are adverse economic factors on going. There are crippling high | :18:12. | :18:17. | |
levels of debt and problems, one has to fear the exit process of a | :18:17. | :18:22. | |
country like Spain, would effectively sound the death knell | :18:22. | :18:27. | |
for the euro all together. Until now Germany insistence on austerity | :18:27. | :18:32. | |
for Greece has been seen as a giant bluff. But if it does drive Europe | :18:32. | :18:36. | |
to ruination, even stalwarts of the political centre, now see that as | :18:36. | :18:41. | |
changing the debate over austerity versus growth. It may be that the | :18:41. | :18:43. | |
approach of the Washington consensus, and George Osborne and | :18:43. | :18:47. | |
Cameron, is simply wrong, and that Greece is one of the first people, | :18:47. | :18:51. | |
because they have absolutely nothing to lose. The first groups | :18:51. | :18:55. | |
of people putting their head above and saying, no, we are not | :18:55. | :19:04. | |
accepting this. I think it might be totemic, for how the whole | :19:04. | :19:07. | |
austerity project is seen. Economists find it hard to model | :19:07. | :19:10. | |
what is coming. At least they are thinking about it. The problem is, | :19:10. | :19:14. | |
for the centrist politicians and civil servants who run Europe, they | :19:14. | :19:17. | |
don't even want to think about it. When you look at what is happening | :19:17. | :19:21. | |
in Greece, on the streets, you can see why. The old split between left | :19:21. | :19:27. | |
and right is still there underneath. It still simers, there is still a | :19:27. | :19:32. | |
sense of families and political history. Your grandfather killed my | :19:32. | :19:36. | |
grandfather, that could come back? Your grandfather killed my | :19:36. | :19:44. | |
grandfather, it is already coming back. The political goss are from a | :19:45. | :19:52. | |
past Greece thought it had put behind it. If it fails there is no | :19:52. | :20:02. | |
shortage of specters to haunt Europe. Paul Krugman is still with | :20:02. | :20:07. | |
us, with a similar enlike peedic knowledge of euroaffairs, we have | :20:07. | :20:12. | |
Kenneth Rogoff in Washington. What is the problem here, is it one of | :20:12. | :20:22. | |
demand for debt? Well, I think that fundamental problems is a huge | :20:22. | :20:26. | |
overhang of doubt you have to deal with. You can't deal with it | :20:26. | :20:29. | |
watching the periphery countries of Europe being in recession for ten | :20:29. | :20:33. | |
years. That is not going to happen. There has to come a plan to bring | :20:33. | :20:38. | |
the debt down. Growth is a piece of it. They need to write down debt | :20:38. | :20:43. | |
and need inflation. They need plan for restoring competitiveness in | :20:43. | :20:46. | |
the periphery. If they are not going to have their own currency, | :20:46. | :20:52. | |
then the euro needs to go down. way I think about Spain, is for ten | :20:52. | :20:58. | |
years they were seen as the golden boy of Europe, now it is safe | :20:58. | :21:03. | |
because it is part of the eurozone, money flooded in. A lot of it the | :21:03. | :21:07. | |
Germany banks lending to Spanish banks, which fuelled a huge housing | :21:07. | :21:12. | |
bubble. A lot of inflation, they get uncompetitive, the bubble | :21:12. | :21:15. | |
bursts, how do they get back to being competitive again? The | :21:15. | :21:19. | |
current strategy is that they should cut their wages, and some | :21:19. | :21:23. | |
how do enough austerity to pay that debt. It is impossible. The demands | :21:23. | :21:29. | |
being placed on Spain are impossible. If Greece exits, then | :21:29. | :21:32. | |
everybody says it is impossible, money starts flooding out of Spain | :21:32. | :21:37. | |
and Europe has a choice. And the choice is? The choice is, Ken and I | :21:37. | :21:42. | |
seem to agree, that credit has to be made available, open-ended | :21:42. | :21:48. | |
lending, so when people pull their euros out the banks don't collapse. | :21:48. | :21:58. | |
An unlimited supply of euros from frack further. More debt? It is | :21:58. | :22:01. | |
temporary, because if the panic stops the money comes back. You | :22:01. | :22:05. | |
have to have inflation in Europe, instead of Spain having to cut its | :22:05. | :22:10. | |
wages, at least it is not solely through cuts of Spanish wages, but | :22:10. | :22:16. | |
we will have rising German wages, which is an easier way for Spain to | :22:16. | :22:20. | |
become competitive. It is a change in the vision of Germany policy. | :22:20. | :22:24. | |
Instead of punishing the debtors and having price stability, they | :22:24. | :22:29. | |
have to have something more liberal, they have to have a party. | :22:29. | :22:35. | |
Rogoff, inflation and more debt, is that a solution? No, I don't agree | :22:35. | :22:42. | |
with the more debt. I certainly agree about writing down debt. I | :22:42. | :22:45. | |
think inflation is a piece of the solution, all over the world. I | :22:45. | :22:49. | |
don't think there is really way to go forward here without having some | :22:49. | :22:52. | |
political union, or vision of political union. I don't think this | :22:52. | :22:56. | |
is all about Germany being stingy. It is also about not wanting to | :22:56. | :23:03. | |
have -- st, ing ey it is also about not wanting to have an open bar for | :23:03. | :23:09. | |
the rest of Europe. I'm not saying what they are proposing is | :23:09. | :23:12. | |
necessarily nearly the end of things. I really think the only way | :23:12. | :23:16. | |
this is going to end is either Europe starts to look like a real | :23:16. | :23:23. | |
country, and I mean France and Germany, part of the same country, | :23:23. | :23:28. | |
central Government with a lot of taxing power, or it splits up. | :23:28. | :23:33. | |
Unless they start moving that way enthusiastically soon, I don't | :23:33. | :23:38. | |
think anything will stablise the situation. I hope's wrong about | :23:38. | :23:44. | |
that, if he's right it will be over. I have done Ireland versus Nevada, | :23:44. | :23:48. | |
not the landscape, but everything else looks remarkably similar. | :23:48. | :23:54. | |
Because the way the US fiscal system exists, Nevada is receiving | :23:54. | :23:59. | |
de facto aid on the scale of 5-6% of GDP, from Washington. Try to | :23:59. | :24:02. | |
imagine that Europe, that Germany would be willing to countenance a | :24:02. | :24:09. | |
system where 5-6% of GDP, not in loans, but actual aid, is given to | :24:09. | :24:12. | |
southern European countries at the moment, that is not conceivable. | :24:12. | :24:16. | |
That is a generation's work. We don't have a generation, we may not | :24:16. | :24:22. | |
have more than a few months here. By that analysis, the euro has had | :24:22. | :24:29. | |
it? Some doubt write downs, that some default, plus some inflation, | :24:29. | :24:36. | |
might make it, might make it manage gt, over a five-year d manageable, | :24:36. | :24:40. | |
over a five-year period to get an adjustment. That is not good, the | :24:40. | :24:43. | |
solution that the United States of Europe is much to be desired. | :24:43. | :24:46. | |
it won't happen during my working lifetime. | :24:47. | :24:51. | |
Ken Rogoff, you tried to get in? think that will be a problem. I | :24:51. | :24:56. | |
think they need to lay out a vision, it could be 15-20 years, right now | :24:56. | :25:00. | |
it is a moving 40-50 years. But they need to lay out a vision where | :25:00. | :25:05. | |
it is going forward, not backward. I think the French election was in | :25:05. | :25:09. | |
some sense a rejection of moving to a closer Europe, a rejection of | :25:09. | :25:15. | |
having more interdependance. I certainly see that Germany, one way | :25:15. | :25:19. | |
or another, is not going to get paid. Either because there is going | :25:19. | :25:24. | |
to be default, inflation or it will make transfers t has to pick its | :25:24. | :25:28. | |
poison. I'm very sympathetic to their wanting rules, at least | :25:28. | :25:32. | |
trying to negotiate. That said, they may find themselves blinking | :25:33. | :25:36. | |
again and again, simply because they are being gamed into making | :25:37. | :25:41. | |
the big payments and transfers, because it is so catastrophic what | :25:41. | :25:45. | |
will happen if they don't. What should western Governments be doing | :25:45. | :25:55. | |
:25:55. | :25:58. | ||
now? They have to stop the panic here. That is the number one | :25:58. | :26:02. | |
problem. I think over the longer term there is a huge overhang of | :26:02. | :26:07. | |
debt, public, private, external debt, that gradually needs to be | :26:07. | :26:13. | |
deflated out of the of the system. Some through growth, there are very | :26:13. | :26:17. | |
few historical experiences where that has been very successful. | :26:17. | :26:20. | |
Except in cases like Canada and Sweden, where the Governments were | :26:20. | :26:23. | |
very large, and they were able to shrink them and make the economies | :26:23. | :26:31. | |
much more efficient. I look at the European situation, as something | :26:31. | :26:34. | |
impossible will happen. One that the euro will be allowed to | :26:34. | :26:37. | |
collapse, that is unthinkable, impossible. The other is the | :26:37. | :26:41. | |
Germans will accept lots of debt relief, plus inflation, plus | :26:41. | :26:45. | |
temporarily large open-ended lending, which is impossible. One | :26:45. | :26:49. | |
of those two impossible things will happen. It is an awesome choice. It | :26:49. | :26:53. | |
is not something, they will not have years to dither over this, | :26:53. | :26:57. | |
they have months to dither over this. It is moving very fast. | :26:57. | :27:01. | |
Rather surprisingly a survey out tomorrow, of how confident British | :27:01. | :27:04. | |
consumers feel, will show their slightly less gloomy than they were. | :27:04. | :27:07. | |
But the facts about the state of the economy in this country, even | :27:07. | :27:10. | |
without the collapse of the eurozone, are awful. The | :27:10. | :27:16. | |
Chancellor's sticking to his line that there is no alternative to his | :27:16. | :27:22. | |
austerity prescription. Not for him, the great economist, John Maynard | :27:22. | :27:26. | |
Keynes, said when the facts change I change my mind, what do you do. | :27:26. | :27:36. | |
:27:36. | :27:37. | ||
First let's have this. "To understand my state of mind", | :27:37. | :27:42. | |
John Maynard Keynes wrote to his friend, George Bernard show, he | :27:42. | :27:47. | |
said he would be writing a book on economic theory, that would largely | :27:47. | :27:51. | |
revolutionise, not at once, but in the course of next ten years, the | :27:51. | :27:54. | |
way the world thinks about economic problems. It was a bit of a brag, | :27:54. | :28:00. | |
even to a friend, but as it turns out, even he was underplaying it. | :28:00. | :28:05. | |
Keynes ideas are still in play, nearly 70 years later. In the | :28:05. | :28:09. | |
summer of 2010, the Chancellor, George Osborne put in place his own | :28:10. | :28:13. | |
theory. Massive spending cuts, driven by a need to placate the | :28:13. | :28:18. | |
international bond markets. This Emergency Budget deals decisively | :28:18. | :28:23. | |
with our country's record debts. It pays for the past and plans for the | :28:23. | :28:29. | |
future. His opposite number, retaliated. With a modern day case | :28:29. | :28:35. | |
for Keynesian spending. coalition should act quickly and | :28:35. | :28:40. | |
decisively to reverse George Osborne's cuts and for household | :28:40. | :28:45. | |
budgets this year. We should reinstate vital investment for jobs | :28:45. | :28:51. | |
now. Here on the corner of John Maynard Keynes's street, is a | :28:51. | :28:56. | |
building site that exsemplifies his ideas of yesterday, he believes if | :28:57. | :29:00. | |
the economy isn't involved in the private sector, the Government has | :29:00. | :29:03. | |
no choice, the Government has to intervene. He said, tongue in cheek, | :29:03. | :29:10. | |
what you should do, is take bottles, and fill them with pound coins, and | :29:10. | :29:14. | |
put them at the bottom of the large well and put it down there. The | :29:14. | :29:19. | |
employment of getting the bags out would stimulate the economy. That | :29:19. | :29:24. | |
is where critics of the Government say we are now. On the one hand you | :29:24. | :29:28. | |
have �700 billion of public sector private assets that they don't want | :29:28. | :29:32. | |
to spend. And there is historic low rates of borrowing that the | :29:32. | :29:35. | |
Government enjoys and could be better used to stimulate the | :29:36. | :29:42. | |
economy. That is what they think should be done and they are still | :29:42. | :29:45. | |
Keynesian followers. The Government could actually restore some of its | :29:45. | :29:47. | |
capital programmes that have been cut. For example, the school | :29:47. | :29:51. | |
building programme has been cut by 80%. I think much of those cuts | :29:51. | :29:57. | |
should be reversed. There are other programmes which would be better to | :29:57. | :30:00. | |
be done by a national investment bank. Because that would get a lot | :30:00. | :30:02. | |
of the spending off the Government's balance sheet, if | :30:03. | :30:08. | |
people are worried that the Government is being profligate. | :30:08. | :30:12. | |
Critics of neo-Keynesian sound warnings. They point out our | :30:13. | :30:20. | |
economy has generous automatic fiscal monitor, spending rising. | :30:20. | :30:23. | |
They say the Government is borrowing a fair amount, not much | :30:23. | :30:26. | |
less than a Labour Government would have done. The Government is | :30:26. | :30:32. | |
spending close to 50% of GDP, their plan is to get down to to 40% over | :30:33. | :30:37. | |
the next couple of years. If they want to provide confidence in the | :30:37. | :30:42. | |
economy, what they need to be doing is getting close to 30%. That would | :30:42. | :30:45. | |
also allow tax cuts, that would encourage private investment. | :30:46. | :30:49. | |
are many reasons why the Government doesn't think the time is right for | :30:49. | :30:52. | |
apartheid of pronounced Keynesian spending. But there are two that | :30:52. | :30:56. | |
stand out. The first one, according to the ideas of the man himself, | :30:56. | :31:00. | |
you don't run a deficit during a time of economic boom. The current | :31:00. | :31:03. | |
Government believe that is exactly what the previous Government did, | :31:03. | :31:09. | |
and they are now dealing with the effects of it. There is also | :31:09. | :31:12. | |
unfunded pension liabilities, that this Government is also trying to | :31:12. | :31:16. | |
deal with. They believed Keynes didn't have them at the time of his | :31:16. | :31:19. | |
writing, and you can't keep kicking a debt can down the road. | :31:19. | :31:24. | |
Nonetheless, the Government is due to launch new programmes of | :31:24. | :31:28. | |
infrastructure investment soon. The debate is shifting towards a | :31:28. | :31:32. | |
different Keynesian insight, that monetary policy could do more heavy | :31:32. | :31:42. | |
:31:42. | :31:43. | ||
lifting. The Bank of England should set nominal GDP rates, musing from | :31:43. | :31:46. | |
the builders until then, they wonder where he buried the pound | :31:46. | :31:52. | |
coins. Paul Krugman is here, Jon Moulton | :31:53. | :31:56. | |
joins him, and Andrea Leadsom, a Conservative MP, who previously | :31:56. | :32:01. | |
worked in finance for 20 years. You have given George Osborne quite | :32:01. | :32:05. | |
a lot of ear ache about his handle of the economy. Have you seen | :32:05. | :32:08. | |
anything while you have been over - - handling of the economy, have you | :32:08. | :32:11. | |
seen anything while you have been over here to change your view? | :32:11. | :32:15. | |
have had two years of austerity here and elsewhere. What we have | :32:15. | :32:18. | |
seen, first of all, is austerity really does contract the economy. | :32:18. | :32:22. | |
That the notion that it would inspire business confidence, and | :32:22. | :32:29. | |
lead to expansion, not contraction, has been decisively proved wrong | :32:29. | :32:34. | |
here and across the continent. Secondly, there is growing evidence | :32:34. | :32:38. | |
that austerity, in these conditions, doesn't even work in fiscal terms. | :32:38. | :32:42. | |
Because it shrinks the economy now and also shrinks the economy in | :32:42. | :32:47. | |
future. It hurts the economy's long-run potential, which reduces | :32:47. | :32:51. | |
future revenues, which worsens the long run budget position. I have | :32:51. | :32:55. | |
used the analogy, it is like medieval doctors that thought you | :32:55. | :32:59. | |
could treat a sick patient by bleeding, the patient got sicker | :32:59. | :33:02. | |
and they said, bleed more. That is what is happening. You have a debt | :33:02. | :33:08. | |
problem that is real, and the treatment is making things worse, | :33:08. | :33:13. | |
even in fiscal terms. Why are you shaking your head, this is a Nobel | :33:13. | :33:18. | |
Prize-winning economist? I find his view reckless, frankly, I can't | :33:18. | :33:21. | |
believe that somebody as incredibly highly regarded could honestly | :33:21. | :33:26. | |
think that the answer is to go and borrow more money. It is very | :33:27. | :33:30. | |
simple mathematics, if you are in a hole, if you have overspent and | :33:30. | :33:35. | |
overspent, spending more is simply not going to help. It will make | :33:35. | :33:40. | |
things worse. You talk about austerity, in reality this is | :33:40. | :33:44. | |
austerity light. If you really wanted to sort the economy, they | :33:44. | :33:49. | |
would be doing it far faster with a shorter, sharper hit to get us | :33:49. | :33:54. | |
rebounding sooner than we can. There are a lot of ways to answer | :33:54. | :33:57. | |
that. The main thing to say, if you try to have a situation that | :33:57. | :34:00. | |
everyone is trying to slash at the same time, which the private sector | :34:00. | :34:04. | |
is trying to slash spending cuts, it feels it has too much debt, and | :34:04. | :34:08. | |
the Government is also saying we have too much debt, we are all | :34:08. | :34:11. | |
trying to slash. Then we run up against the fundamental fact that | :34:11. | :34:15. | |
we are not a household, but an economy. And your spending is my | :34:15. | :34:19. | |
income, and my spending is my income. And if we are both doing | :34:19. | :34:23. | |
the slashing at the same time, what we end up doing is producing a | :34:23. | :34:30. | |
depression that leaves us worse off. This is another thing, 1930s | :34:30. | :34:39. | |
American economist, Irvine Fisher, Keynes plentor, he said if | :34:39. | :34:43. | |
everybody tries to pay down debt, the more people save and the more | :34:43. | :34:48. | |
they owe. We are worsening the debt problem by not allowing the | :34:48. | :34:57. | |
Government to be the stablising factor. Even I struggle to attack a | :34:57. | :35:02. | |
Nobel Prize winner, but I think you are seriously wrong. The issue | :35:02. | :35:06. | |
about austerity is we have too large a state. We have let the | :35:06. | :35:11. | |
economy go from 30 % odd, to pushing 50%, public sector. If you | :35:11. | :35:16. | |
want growth you need a larger private sector, not a larger public | :35:16. | :35:20. | |
sector. You are also ignoring, as your book does, I have just been | :35:20. | :35:24. | |
reading it, waiting to come on, the very simple moral dimension of what | :35:24. | :35:29. | |
you are recommending. That is we run up more debt. The only thing | :35:29. | :35:33. | |
that debt does, it enables us to live better today, at the expense | :35:33. | :35:38. | |
of those who follow us. That is a serious moral argument, and you | :35:38. | :35:43. | |
cannot ignore it. I would put the moral argument in a different way, | :35:43. | :35:47. | |
if I think about the future generation, the crime we are | :35:47. | :35:49. | |
committing against the next generation, is not that we will | :35:49. | :35:55. | |
leave them with more debt. That is a venal sin, the crime is all the | :35:55. | :35:59. | |
students are graduating from college with no job prospects. | :35:59. | :36:03. | |
Graduating with debts they have incurred to get an expensive | :36:03. | :36:05. | |
education, and then there is no jobs. The damage we are inflicting | :36:05. | :36:09. | |
on the next generation, by not having jobs for them. Which is the | :36:09. | :36:14. | |
result of misguided austerity right now. That is the great sin. Those | :36:14. | :36:18. | |
jobs will be generated when people move from the public sector to the | :36:18. | :36:22. | |
private sector. What we need to be doing, is really making it easier | :36:22. | :36:27. | |
for young people to start their own businesses, making it far easier | :36:27. | :36:32. | |
for new entrepeneurs, you say we have to create jobs. We shouldn't | :36:32. | :36:36. | |
be about creating jobs, but about enabling the economy to create jobs, | :36:36. | :36:39. | |
low tax regimes, and opportunities for people to start up new | :36:39. | :36:43. | |
businesses and so on. The average young person is not going to start | :36:44. | :36:47. | |
a business. Why not? There has to be an expanding economy which is | :36:47. | :36:50. | |
not happening, it is not happening because we are not providing the | :36:50. | :36:54. | |
necessary support. By the way, I think you have just given me | :36:54. | :36:57. | |
confirmation that something people like me tend to say. Actually none | :36:57. | :37:01. | |
of this is at all about fiscal responsibility. It is about | :37:01. | :37:05. | |
exploiting the current situation to pursue an ideolgical goal of a | :37:05. | :37:08. | |
smaller state. You know, we can argue about whether the British | :37:08. | :37:13. | |
state is too large, but look at Sweden. Which is weathering it very | :37:13. | :37:17. | |
well, with a much larger state than you have. That is a great diversion, | :37:17. | :37:21. | |
that is suggesting it is not sincere, it is not the budget | :37:21. | :37:24. | |
deficit that is concern you, you are looking for a way to exploit | :37:24. | :37:32. | |
the deficit situation. You accuse - - we accuse you of being wrong, and | :37:32. | :37:37. | |
you accuse us of lying. You are mingling concepts that are separate. | :37:37. | :37:40. | |
There is clear economic evidence, and you must accept as evidence, | :37:40. | :37:45. | |
not they are hey, that, on average, larger public sectors grow slower | :37:45. | :37:51. | |
than smaller ones. I don't accept that at all, we could have that | :37:51. | :37:54. | |
discussion but we need equation charts for that. That is not true. | :37:54. | :38:01. | |
So Mr Alfonso's study is rubbish. The question of size of the state, | :38:01. | :38:05. | |
and the question of what one should be doing right now it deal with | :38:05. | :38:08. | |
this crisis, ought to be separate. Surely there has to be a point that | :38:09. | :38:13. | |
you can either expand your private sector, by making it easier for the | :38:13. | :38:16. | |
private sector to expand. Or you can expand your public sec to and | :38:16. | :38:20. | |
the only way to do that, is by removing wealth from the private | :38:20. | :38:26. | |
sector, to put into the public sector. You are missing a point of | :38:26. | :38:30. | |
what it means to be in a depression. We are not going into a depression. | :38:30. | :38:33. | |
We are in a depression, there are vast numbers of workers idle who | :38:33. | :38:37. | |
want to work. There is vast amounts of capital going nowhere, because | :38:37. | :38:41. | |
there is no demand. At this point of time, the private and public | :38:41. | :38:44. | |
sector are not competing for resources, there are unemployed | :38:44. | :38:48. | |
resources, the point is to put them to work. Give me a recovery, in the | :38:48. | :38:57. | |
UK or US, and I will become a fiscal, be happy to find ways to | :38:57. | :39:00. | |
discuss about Government spending and raising revenue, in the US that | :39:00. | :39:05. | |
needs to be part of the solution. Not now, not under these conditions. | :39:05. | :39:09. | |
Don't you think efforts to reduce corporation tax, to deregulate, to | :39:09. | :39:15. | |
make it ease your to start new companies, to -- easier to start | :39:15. | :39:20. | |
new companies, and make it easier for banks to lend. To improve the | :39:20. | :39:23. | |
private sector of the economy, that will have more impact than | :39:23. | :39:27. | |
borrowing more money to create jobs and throw money at things. We have | :39:27. | :39:31. | |
survey evidence in the United States about what it is that is | :39:31. | :39:34. | |
holding private businesses back. Overwhelmingably the answer is lack | :39:34. | :39:38. | |
of sales. There is not enough demand. Constraints on capital is | :39:38. | :39:43. | |
not an issue. They would like to have more skilled workers, no more | :39:43. | :39:47. | |
so than usual. Issues about financing are small issues, | :39:47. | :39:51. | |
concerns about future Government regulation, they always complain | :39:51. | :39:54. | |
about that, no more than usual. What has changed is there is no | :39:54. | :40:00. | |
demand, there is no market there. That is what the austerity policies | :40:00. | :40:04. | |
are worse, they are inhibiting the private sector as well as the | :40:04. | :40:11. | |
public. Not all of the policies have failed. Every success story | :40:11. | :40:14. | |
includes either high interest rates to start with, so you could bring | :40:14. | :40:18. | |
them down. Or a situation where you have a large currency devaluation, | :40:18. | :40:23. | |
that won't work now, you have to have some prosperous economy to | :40:23. | :40:26. | |
devalue against, there is nobody out there now. There is, a clear | :40:26. | :40:30. | |
example, Estonia. It doesn't fit the story at all. I don't think we | :40:30. | :40:33. | |
have the evidence on the Estonia example, and we haven't time to go | :40:33. | :40:36. | |
into it. I would love to. Come back and tell | :40:36. | :40:40. | |
us all about it. The people of Ireland get to vote | :40:40. | :40:43. | |
tomorrow on whether to swallow the medicine prescribed by Europe, it | :40:43. | :40:46. | |
is a quirk of the institution constitution that it requires a | :40:46. | :40:49. | |
referendum for the country to decide whether to accept a treaty | :40:49. | :40:53. | |
that most of the rest of the eurozone has already agreed to. The | :40:53. | :40:57. | |
Irish have a habit of rejecting EU treaties in referendums, and then | :40:57. | :41:00. | |
accepting them when they are told to come up with the right | :41:00. | :41:09. | |
conclusion. It was a Drome house, which turned into a nightmare | :41:09. | :41:14. | |
mansion. Vacant and abandoned, after its owners' fortunes went the | :41:14. | :41:20. | |
same way as the once booming island. Julia still work, but can't afford | :41:20. | :41:25. | |
the mortgage any more, she survives by selling her furniture, and votes | :41:25. | :41:28. | |
no in the referendum. This country is in a mess, because of the lack | :41:28. | :41:31. | |
of regulation and the banks throwing money at people. Nobody is | :41:31. | :41:35. | |
taking responsibility at the top, people like myself I lose my entire | :41:35. | :41:38. | |
life earnings, and people in more dire situations, who are struggling | :41:38. | :41:42. | |
to put food on the table. They are paying the penalty, the people at | :41:42. | :41:46. | |
the top are being protected. That is wrong. Many of Ireland's middle- | :41:46. | :41:50. | |
classes feel the same way, most of those voting no come from the less | :41:50. | :41:54. | |
well off strands of society. People have seen their standards of living | :41:54. | :41:59. | |
squeezed. And Sinn Fein, with less than 10% of the seats in Irish | :41:59. | :42:04. | |
parliament, have stopped into that anger by urging a no vote. | :42:04. | :42:09. | |
biggest thing the no vote would do, is to send clearly a signal to our | :42:09. | :42:12. | |
own Government, but then to our European partner, that it is the | :42:12. | :42:17. | |
considered view of the Irish people that austerity has failed. It is | :42:17. | :42:20. | |
therefore the responsibility of democratically elected Governments | :42:20. | :42:26. | |
and politicians, to come up with the Plan B. The yes side is | :42:26. | :42:29. | |
represented by the vast majority of political parties in Ireland, they | :42:29. | :42:33. | |
are warning voters if the Fiscal Compact is reject, Ireland might | :42:33. | :42:38. | |
not be able to get a second bail out in 2014, if one was required. | :42:39. | :42:42. | |
It is a tough sell, in any circumstance, where you have high | :42:42. | :42:47. | |
levels of unemployment, and people are hurting. Aren't they voting yes, | :42:47. | :42:49. | |
because they are afraid, rather than because this is the right | :42:49. | :42:53. | |
thing, the right forward path? think they are voting yes because | :42:53. | :42:56. | |
they want an insurance policy of funding there, if we cannot get | :42:56. | :43:00. | |
back to the markets. They are voting yes because they want proper | :43:00. | :43:04. | |
fiscal discipline, they don't want to go through the boom to bust | :43:04. | :43:07. | |
nonsense we have seen over the course of the last number of years. | :43:07. | :43:12. | |
They want certainty with this treaty. This treaty provides that. | :43:12. | :43:16. | |
Dublin's Docklands symbolises the boom and bust that was the Celtic | :43:16. | :43:20. | |
Tiger era. The bridges, banks, hotels that shot up in the last few | :43:20. | :43:24. | |
years, showed aspiration and growth, it all ended badly, symbolised in | :43:24. | :43:29. | |
the building over my shoulder, which would have been Anglo-Irish | :43:29. | :43:34. | |
bank's head quarter, before it collapsed and taking with it -- | :43:34. | :43:38. | |
headquarters, before it collapsed and took the economy with it. | :43:38. | :43:44. | |
House buying is non-existent, but the Irish export system is booming, | :43:44. | :43:49. | |
with niches in pharmaceuticals and technology. This man runs one of | :43:49. | :43:55. | |
the biggest exporters in Ireland. If we can manage our way through | :43:55. | :44:00. | |
the next two years, combine that with certainty coming out of Europe, | :44:00. | :44:04. | |
which will trigger economic growth and economic activity. Then I think | :44:05. | :44:09. | |
you will see a very different Ireland. And that is why we have to | :44:09. | :44:14. | |
vote yes tomorrow. We're not voting for tomorrow, we are voting for the | :44:14. | :44:18. | |
Ireland of two years from now. We're voting for the Ireland of 40 | :44:18. | :44:22. | |
years, for our grandchildren. But Ireland's young people may not | :44:22. | :44:27. | |
be able to wait a few years, they are already emigrating at a rate of | :44:27. | :44:30. | |
1,000 a week, not all have lost their sense of humour. You find it | :44:30. | :44:35. | |
interesting, you guys have seen the protests and the indignation in | :44:35. | :44:38. | |
Spain, the people of Greece taking to the streets and burning down | :44:39. | :44:43. | |
Athens. Part of you thinks, why doesn't it happen in Ireland, and | :44:43. | :44:48. | |
you think, we just don't have the weather for it. I'm not paying any | :44:48. | :44:51. | |
debt, people say that is irresponsible, what would happen if | :44:51. | :44:55. | |
everybody stopped paying their debt? We would be debt-free. | :44:55. | :44:58. | |
I decided to do my own little stand-up, afterall, how difficult | :44:58. | :45:02. | |
with it be? The reason we are here is because we are looking at the | :45:02. | :45:07. | |
treaty. And I was hoping to canvas your views, because unlike so many | :45:07. | :45:14. | |
of your peers, you haven't emigrated, yet. So all of you, how | :45:14. | :45:20. | |
many are "don't know", you will vote in the next 48 hours and you | :45:20. | :45:26. | |
still don't know. Can I ask someone why you don't no. Did you raise | :45:26. | :45:31. | |
your hand? Who raised their hand and said they did know. Why don't | :45:31. | :45:37. | |
you know? No pressure? I haven't really looked into it. Despite the | :45:37. | :45:41. | |
gallows humour, and the high number of undecided vote erts, even at | :45:41. | :45:46. | |
this late stage, both sides of the debate agree that Ireland faces a | :45:46. | :45:49. | |
few more years of austerity, irrespective of the outcome. | :45:49. | :45:53. | |
Allegra Stratton is back with us to tell us what has happened with the | :45:53. | :45:56. | |
Prime Minister's former head of propaganda, Andy Coulson. What was | :45:56. | :46:04. | |
his former title? Head of Communications. He has been | :46:04. | :46:09. | |
arrested? Before we went on air, he was charged and arrested. He was | :46:09. | :46:14. | |
detained at 6frplt30am in his home in south London in Dulwich, they | :46:14. | :46:19. | |
drove him, not train nor plane, they drove him to Glasgow, arrived | :46:19. | :46:24. | |
at 3.30, six hours of questioning, then announced they were charging | :46:24. | :46:27. | |
and arresting. It is down to the Scottish authorities to figure out | :46:27. | :46:32. | |
what they will do next. offences? Related to his appearance | :46:32. | :46:38. | |
at a Tommy Sheridan trial. charge? Perjury. That is serious? | :46:38. | :46:42. | |
Taken very seriously up there, more so. The problem for the Prime | :46:42. | :46:48. | |
Minister is twofold, firstly, it is something he is alleged to have | :46:48. | :46:52. | |
committed while working for the Prime Minister. A different | :46:52. | :46:57. | |
category of things he is accused of. It reminds us ahead of the Jubilee | :46:57. | :47:00. | |
weekend, that no matter how hard the Government tries to disentangle | :47:00. | :47:03. | |
itself from News International, every time they try they get | :47:03. | :47:07. | |
dragged back by forces beyond their control. Thank you very much. It is | :47:08. | :47:11. | |
on most of tomorrow morning's front pages, of course, if I knew I had | :47:11. | :47:15. | |
time to show you I would. I don't have time to show you, that is the | :47:15. | :47:20. | |
Guardian there. He's on most of the others as well. That's all for | :47:20. | :47:23. | |
tonight, James Bond is here tomorrow, but until then, good | :47:23. | :47:33. | |
:47:33. | :47:33. | ||
tomorrow, but until then, good night. | :47:33. | :47:37. | |
The heavy, thundery showers in eastern England is clearing away, | :47:37. | :47:42. | |
only to be replaced by cloud and rain tomorrow, across the northern | :47:42. | :47:45. | |
half of the UK. To the south it will be dryer and brighter, that is | :47:45. | :47:48. | |
where we have the last of the warmth. The rain sets in for | :47:48. | :47:51. | |
northern England, it will be a cool day here. A bit of raib from time | :47:51. | :47:56. | |
to time in the Midlands, after a bright start East Anglia could see | :47:56. | :48:02. | |
rain late in the day. Southern most parts of England, dry and bright, | :48:02. | :48:05. | |
sunshine from time to time, here we have the last of the warmth. | :48:05. | :48:09. | |
Temperatures 18-19, not as warm as today. South Wales doesn't look too | :48:10. | :48:15. | |
bad, mid-and North Wales will see some rain at times, in the hills | :48:15. | :48:19. | |
and mountains. In Northern Ireland a poor day, rain all day, some of | :48:19. | :48:24. | |
which heavy. The rain in Scotland gets as far north as Inverness and | :48:24. | :48:28. | |
Aberdeen. It will be heaviest late morning, early afternoon, the rain | :48:28. | :48:32. | |
becomes lighter during the latter part of the day. A pretty poor day | :48:32. | :48:36. | |
across many northern parts of the UK. It should be dryer and brighter | :48:36. | :48:40. | |
for most areas on Friday. As you head further south, there is a lot | :48:40. | :48:44. |