Browse content similar to 15/06/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Greece decides its future, and perhaps the future of all of us | :00:12. | :00:17. | |
across Europe. Is this the moment when the eurozone can be lost. It | :00:17. | :00:23. | |
is already getting heated. With all the parties promising some kind of | :00:23. | :00:26. | |
changes to the austerity package, will it be enough to see off the | :00:26. | :00:32. | |
challenge from the far left. Paul Mason is in Athens tonight. | :00:32. | :00:35. | |
The Greek Conservative leader tells his party, if we don't win this one, | :00:35. | :00:40. | |
there won't be a third election, just chaos. | :00:40. | :00:43. | |
Our guest also assess the impact Greece's decision will have on | :00:43. | :00:47. | |
Britain, Europe and the world economy. Also tonight: | :00:47. | :00:52. | |
Before we get on the proper business of the evening, getting | :00:53. | :00:58. | |
chateaued beyond belief. The perils of being posh, as David Cameron now | :00:58. | :01:06. | |
reaches the point where his lifestyle and friends reach a | :01:06. | :01:16. | |
difficult point. We talk to our guests. | :01:16. | :01:19. | |
Good evening, there is something a bit odd about a project involving | :01:19. | :01:23. | |
more than 400 million of the richest people on earth, in which | :01:23. | :01:28. | |
the decisions of handful in a tiny country matter so much. That is the | :01:28. | :01:31. | |
way it looks tonight as the people of Greece prepare to go to the | :01:31. | :01:35. | |
polls on Sunday. Ground down austerity, fed up with politics, as | :01:35. | :01:37. | |
usual, and not entirely sure whether their voting would take | :01:37. | :01:40. | |
Greece out of the yourier row, and even cause the currency and the | :01:40. | :01:43. | |
world economy to collapse. Britain's former Prime Minister, | :01:43. | :01:49. | |
Gordon Brown, warned today of a possibly chaotic exit from the euro, | :01:49. | :01:55. | |
saying Italy and even France might soon need a bail out. Paul you have | :01:55. | :02:00. | |
been there all week in Athens who will win, you must be an expert? | :02:00. | :02:03. | |
Opinion polls are banned before the election. A lot of people in the | :02:03. | :02:07. | |
world of banking in the last couple of days have seen and told me about | :02:07. | :02:15. | |
private polls, who say New Demok on 30, Syriza, the far left, on 27, | :02:15. | :02:19. | |
but margins of error there, quite crucial. That still leaves another | :02:19. | :02:24. | |
40% of voters. But what will happen in this election depends first of | :02:24. | :02:28. | |
all on the turn out, whether people who realise, this is it, this is | :02:28. | :02:33. | |
the election that decides Greece's fate, and that they suddenly have, | :02:33. | :02:37. | |
which they didn't realise before, a choice for a far left party that | :02:37. | :02:40. | |
will take them out of the austerity and into the unknown, as we are | :02:40. | :02:45. | |
about to see, whether people just turn out. Or, whether people, it is | :02:45. | :02:49. | |
a were, the fear vote and Mr Samaras, the leader of the | :02:49. | :02:52. | |
Conservatives has been playing on that fear all week, whether the | :02:52. | :02:55. | |
fear vote just rushes, in larger numbers than the polls are | :02:55. | :02:59. | |
predicting, to the Conservatives. We will probably get a decisive | :02:59. | :03:01. | |
outcome. That is my feeling, I don't know which it is. There are, | :03:02. | :03:07. | |
there is a minority of pollster who is say watch out for a Syriza | :03:07. | :03:12. | |
landslide. But New Democracy had a big rally today, what about their | :03:12. | :03:17. | |
leader have to say to the party faithful? He said if we don't win | :03:17. | :03:20. | |
this, there will be so much economic chaos, we might not get to | :03:20. | :03:23. | |
a third election. He didn't specify what would actually prevent Greece | :03:24. | :03:27. | |
getting to a third election. But it is the rhetoric like that, that I | :03:27. | :03:33. | |
think people are responding to. Mr Samaras said this is an election | :03:33. | :03:37. | |
about the euro, we are in or we're out. Vote me and we are in, vote | :03:37. | :03:47. | |
for the left and we are out. The left vehemently denies. That you | :03:47. | :03:51. | |
can't overestimate how pro-Europe that far left Syriza are, they | :03:51. | :03:55. | |
genuinely believe they can make Greece work as part of the euro, if | :03:55. | :04:00. | |
they get some breathing space to do a much more radical, almost left | :04:00. | :04:04. | |
Social Democratic version of a growth strategy. So, you know, | :04:04. | :04:08. | |
Greece's voters are being presented with a real choice, not a rhetoric | :04:08. | :04:13. | |
choice. It is a real choice between two paths out within the euro. But, | :04:13. | :04:18. | |
you know, the experience of being here all week, going to far flung | :04:18. | :04:22. | |
village, ar meet -- and meeting people who have never met a member | :04:22. | :04:26. | |
of Syriza, saying en masse, they are going to vote for them. This is | :04:26. | :04:29. | |
something Greek politics hasn't seen, since the end of the | :04:29. | :04:32. | |
dictatorship. And very briefly, Paul, how | :04:33. | :04:38. | |
prepared is the rest of Europe f any one of these chaotic scenarios | :04:38. | :04:42. | |
the one we end up with on Monday? Mr Cameron was teleconferencing | :04:42. | :04:46. | |
this afternoon. They have cancelled the attendance of certain people at | :04:46. | :04:50. | |
the Mexico G20, or they have postponeed it. They will throw all | :04:50. | :04:59. | |
kind of things at t they will throw liquidity, Central Bank action. It | :04:59. | :05:04. | |
is not really Syriza wins and everything going haywire, it is New | :05:04. | :05:11. | |
Democracy wins and they can't rule. For the Greek middle-class, it was | :05:11. | :05:14. | |
time tonight for one last drink before the unknown. | :05:14. | :05:18. | |
For many people in business, business is frozen. There is little | :05:18. | :05:25. | |
investment coming in, and credit is drying up. Beneath the laidback | :05:25. | :05:28. | |
surface, mainstream politics are getting tense. There are no opinion | :05:28. | :05:31. | |
polls allowed at this stage of the election. Many Greeks have seen or | :05:31. | :05:36. | |
heard of, private opinion polls that indicate the Conservative New | :05:36. | :05:39. | |
Democracy party, could get 30%. Enough, just, to beat the far left, | :05:39. | :05:44. | |
and form a Government. But then, the problems start. Partly, because | :05:44. | :05:48. | |
of the scale of the Greek crisis, partly, because of the | :05:49. | :05:56. | |
peculiarities of Greek Conservatism. This is the party on which the | :05:56. | :06:03. | |
hopes of Brussels and Berlin rest. New Democracy, getting ready for | :06:03. | :06:07. | |
its final rally in Syntagma Sqare. Like PASOK, it is a party blil | :06:07. | :06:14. | |
built on 0 years of two-party patrons -- it is a party built on | :06:14. | :06:20. | |
20 years of two-party patronage. How does the party operate when it | :06:20. | :06:26. | |
has to dismantle clientism? Necessity is a big teacher. Now | :06:26. | :06:30. | |
there is not that much money to hand out, or positions in the | :06:30. | :06:34. | |
public sector. There aren't going to be many hirings in the public | :06:34. | :06:39. | |
sector. In order to maintain power, they cannot for more than a few | :06:39. | :06:44. | |
months, they cannot depend on their old tricks. The worry is, without | :06:44. | :06:50. | |
anything to offer voters but more austerity and pain, ND, will find | :06:50. | :06:59. | |
it hard to rule, even if it wins. This is one of New Democracy's | :06:59. | :07:04. | |
leading lights. In 2010 she was kicked out for supporting the | :07:04. | :07:10. | |
austerity plan, which at the time, the Conservatives didn't want. She | :07:10. | :07:16. | |
has rejoined and could be a new minister if they win. If New | :07:16. | :07:19. | |
Democracy and their partners have the majority, by the people's will | :07:19. | :07:25. | |
and in parliament, they are obliged to govern. If not, you don't have a | :07:25. | :07:30. | |
democracy, you say whoever has 17% and wants to stop anything in | :07:30. | :07:38. | |
governing Greece can do it. This can't be logical democracy. Let as | :07:38. | :07:43. | |
be cheer what that means t means taking on the trade unions, who | :07:43. | :07:49. | |
have prevented privatisation, and stopping the central problems in | :07:49. | :07:53. | |
Athens, are you prepared to do that? If we want to succeed we have | :07:54. | :08:00. | |
to. Many in the German political class want Greece out of the euro, | :08:00. | :08:04. | |
what will you say on Monday to prevent that happening, to the | :08:04. | :08:10. | |
Germans? I will say the Greeks have voted. That it is an incredible | :08:10. | :08:15. | |
decision. Because the people are really, really suffering in Greece | :08:15. | :08:20. | |
today. They made the decision, and now, we | :08:20. | :08:30. | |
:08:30. | :08:33. | ||
are going to do our homework, but you must also stop making life | :08:33. | :08:36. | |
impossible with all these different declarations every day. I will be | :08:36. | :08:40. | |
very clear about it. For David Cameron, and the other euro leaders | :08:40. | :08:45. | |
trying to handle the Greek crisis the options are clear but limited. | :08:45. | :08:48. | |
A big Central Bank liquidity operation is expected, if the | :08:48. | :08:52. | |
election sparks a market meltdown. Foreign leaders are pushing Germany | :08:52. | :08:56. | |
for a clear signal, that it wants Greece within the euro, after a | :08:56. | :09:00. | |
week in which it is giving signals to the contrary, and the in coming | :09:00. | :09:04. | |
Greek Government needs a quick answer to its demands for changes | :09:04. | :09:09. | |
to the austerity package. Again, Germany's rep on the ECB saying | :09:09. | :09:15. | |
today, there could be no changes. New Democracy wants to renegotiate | :09:15. | :09:19. | |
the bail out. Many of its core supporters want | :09:19. | :09:23. | |
tax cuts, offset by cuts in public spending. But since the Spanish | :09:23. | :09:28. | |
crisis began, the leverage of any in coming Greek Government is | :09:28. | :09:32. | |
limited. I don't think Greece has that much of bargaining power. If | :09:32. | :09:37. | |
we were the only danger to the world economy, then we would have | :09:37. | :09:41. | |
huge bargaining power. Since there is dozens of dangers around, what | :09:41. | :09:46. | |
Europe will do is build up its defence against any danger, | :09:46. | :09:53. | |
including Greece. If we don't work with the Europeans to build | :09:53. | :09:57. | |
defences with them, then we shall be seen as irrelevant, and at best, | :09:57. | :10:01. | |
left out of the picture. It is, frankly, crunch time, not | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
just for the Greek Conservatives, but for centrist politics across | :10:05. | :10:08. | |
Europe. If they fail on Sunday, then there are many, both on the | :10:08. | :10:13. | |
left and right of politics, who would see that as the signal for | :10:13. | :10:23. | |
:10:23. | :10:24. | ||
the end of the Uri project. -- euro project. | :10:24. | :10:28. | |
Antonis Samaras said if they don't make it this time, that will be the | :10:28. | :10:35. | |
end of the euro, it is election rhetoric, but everybody knows it. | :10:35. | :10:40. | |
To explore what impact the result of this election might have on the | :10:40. | :10:45. | |
eurozone, Britain and the world economy, we are joined by George | :10:45. | :10:51. | |
Magnus, Matthew Hancock, and Bettina Schulz. | :10:51. | :10:55. | |
What do you think the British Government really wants out of this | :10:55. | :11:03. | |
election? I think that a governing coalition, it is likely to be that | :11:03. | :11:08. | |
n Greece, that supports memberships of the euro, but supports the bail | :11:08. | :11:13. | |
out, so we can bring an end to the uncertainty. As the package made | :11:13. | :11:17. | |
clear, it will require action outside of Greece, in return. | :11:17. | :11:20. | |
that mean, I know British politicians say they don't want to | :11:20. | :11:24. | |
be involved in party politics, that would mean, then, logically, if it | :11:24. | :11:28. | |
was a Syriza-led coalition, that would be pretty disastrous in the | :11:28. | :11:31. | |
British Government's point of view, whatever they say publicly about | :11:31. | :11:36. | |
it? From my point of view, I think it is very difficult to see how the | :11:36. | :11:40. | |
German public would support an easier and more generous bail out | :11:40. | :11:44. | |
of Greece, if the Greek, the in coming Greek Government said they | :11:45. | :11:48. | |
were not prepared to pay the price. The central dilemma in this, is the | :11:49. | :11:52. | |
Greeks, broadly, want to stay in the euro, the question is, are they | :11:52. | :11:58. | |
willing to pay for it, this weekend. And the German people want the euro | :11:58. | :12:03. | |
to succeed, but many of them don't want to pay for the profligacy of | :12:03. | :12:08. | |
the Greeks. If the Greeks vote decisively to say, yes we're | :12:08. | :12:12. | |
prepared to do what is necessary, and lead to a New Democracy victory, | :12:12. | :12:17. | |
then you can see a path through, with Germany saying that this is a | :12:17. | :12:22. | |
necessary price to save the euro. That would get Angela Merkel off | :12:22. | :12:25. | |
the hook t would be far easier for her to make some concessions to the | :12:25. | :12:30. | |
Greek people, if it was a New Democracy group, and not Syriza? | :12:30. | :12:33. | |
would be better for the German public to accept this especially | :12:33. | :12:36. | |
when you see there are other countries like Ireland and Portugal, | :12:36. | :12:39. | |
they have done their structural reforms and the savings. The | :12:39. | :12:43. | |
population there is also in a very hard situation. But they stick to | :12:43. | :12:47. | |
the deal, and they have fulfilled their obligations. I think the | :12:47. | :12:49. | |
German Government and the German people expect this from Greece as | :12:49. | :12:55. | |
well. I think if you have a constructive Government in Greece, | :12:55. | :12:59. | |
that will support the euro, especially the deal, which was only | :12:59. | :13:03. | |
made in March, we shouldn't forget this, it is a very recent deal. | :13:03. | :13:08. | |
Then I'm very sure the Government will then renegotiate. Don't you | :13:08. | :13:12. | |
think that Merkel may say, may think, actually being where we are, | :13:12. | :13:19. | |
we would love to keep it all together, but if Greece went we | :13:19. | :13:23. | |
wouldn't change that much, drawing a line in the sand with Spain and | :13:23. | :13:26. | |
Italy and other countries? You have to be careful with this, it is a | :13:26. | :13:29. | |
very big unknown. You could say the banks have basically written off | :13:29. | :13:33. | |
the Greek debt, so the financial markets probably would be prepared | :13:33. | :13:38. | |
in that way. But on the other hand, it would bakesically then create a | :13:38. | :13:41. | |
different monetary union. different entitlement. Gordon Brown | :13:42. | :13:45. | |
today was saying this could be a chaotic exit, we have had years to | :13:45. | :13:49. | |
prepare for it, perhaps, but it could be absolutely awful on Monday. | :13:49. | :13:52. | |
Where do you come down on this? don't think it will be awful on | :13:52. | :13:58. | |
Monday. I think, for what it's worth, that the currency markets | :13:58. | :14:02. | |
and capital markets and Greek equities and European stocks this | :14:02. | :14:06. | |
week have actually put in a slightly cheery performance by | :14:06. | :14:10. | |
comparison with recent weeks. Almost to the point where the | :14:10. | :14:14. | |
market is kind of saying, on Monday morning, one way or the other, you | :14:14. | :14:19. | |
know, the Central Banks are going to be there, the Bank of England's | :14:19. | :14:21. | |
obviously with the Chancellor already announcing a major | :14:21. | :14:25. | |
programme last night. �80 billion of soft loans to banks? It is | :14:25. | :14:30. | |
thought that the central reserve is looking at things very, very | :14:30. | :14:37. | |
carefully, and Mario Draghi, at the European Central Bank, said Europe | :14:37. | :14:41. | |
is standing ready to help. In the immediate aftermath of the election, | :14:41. | :14:49. | |
markets are expecting that if the outcome is really-and-a-half, -- | :14:49. | :14:54. | |
naff. You mean Syriza, it is what the markets think? In the scheme of | :14:54. | :14:59. | |
things I'm not sure it makes a huge difference. Greece is going to have | :14:59. | :15:03. | |
to default and then they make a big decision to do it in or out of | :15:03. | :15:07. | |
Europe. Is this offering of soft loans to British banks, it is | :15:07. | :15:11. | |
something the Chancellor can do, is it whistling past the graveyard, it | :15:11. | :15:14. | |
doesn't really help, does it? would have needed this six months | :15:14. | :15:18. | |
ago. I'm not sure why it was announced in the way it was | :15:18. | :15:22. | |
announced, when it was announced. It feels a little bit panicky. But | :15:22. | :15:27. | |
it may also be part of pre-emptive measures by the Government. What do | :15:28. | :15:31. | |
you think the Treasury think. Presumably they are really worried, | :15:31. | :15:34. | |
that is one implication of it? There is huge uncertainty about | :15:34. | :15:38. | |
what happens, we have just heard that again in this discussion. No | :15:38. | :15:42. | |
matter what happens in these Greek elections. I think what people want | :15:43. | :15:46. | |
to know is, is the British Government doing everything we can | :15:46. | :15:50. | |
to prepare here for whatever outcome there is. Even though that | :15:50. | :15:54. | |
is limited almost by definition, because we are part of a much | :15:54. | :15:56. | |
bigger jigsaw? We are part of a global economy, and it was | :15:56. | :15:59. | |
interesting to hear Gordon Brown make the argument that the euro | :15:59. | :16:05. | |
zone is damaging the UK economy. The cgs point is, are the British | :16:05. | :16:08. | |
authorities, the Government and the Bank of England -- the crucial | :16:08. | :16:10. | |
point is, are the British authorities and the Government and | :16:10. | :16:13. | |
the Bank of England doing everything they can to prepare. The | :16:14. | :16:19. | |
programme announced last night had a minimum size of �5 billion a | :16:19. | :16:23. | |
month, that will be necessary if everything goes swimmingly on the | :16:23. | :16:27. | |
continent. It didn't have cap to the size f there starts to be bank | :16:27. | :16:31. | |
runs and collapses on the continent, and that could be a consequence of | :16:31. | :16:41. | |
what happens. We need to be ready to depend our country. Do any of | :16:41. | :16:45. | |
you think it ra bit weird, in the middle of a conversation, 400 | :16:45. | :16:48. | |
million people, the richest continent on earth, and waiting for | :16:48. | :16:54. | |
a hand of Greek vo voters to vote one way or another, with -- voters | :16:54. | :16:59. | |
to vote one way or another, without it making much difference. It is an | :16:59. | :17:05. | |
important point, Spain, this week, there is a package for the Spanish | :17:05. | :17:10. | |
banks. I have a feeling the markets are looking even more to Spain. We | :17:10. | :17:18. | |
might get one or the other outcome with Greece. We will get some form | :17:18. | :17:21. | |
of a coalition Government, they have to do the negotiations with | :17:21. | :17:24. | |
the troika. In the end Greece needs money, they need to capitalise the | :17:24. | :17:30. | |
banks. They need the money, I think after all this big hype about the | :17:30. | :17:40. | |
:17:40. | :17:41. | ||
elections, they will calm down and will try to do constructive things. | :17:41. | :17:44. | |
Given the prospect that was raised by Gordon Brown about France and | :17:44. | :17:48. | |
Italy and so on. If the problem was just about | :17:48. | :17:51. | |
Greece, with respect to Greece, nobody would really care, because | :17:51. | :17:56. | |
as you say, it is very small, it really is on the periphery of | :17:56. | :18:00. | |
Europe. The trouble s of course, what Greece represents, and has | :18:00. | :18:03. | |
done actually for the last three year, although the mood music has | :18:03. | :18:07. | |
been getting louder and louder. What it represents is a systemic | :18:07. | :18:11. | |
flaw in the way in which the eurozone is trying to work. It | :18:11. | :18:18. | |
doesn't work. I wished it did, but it doesn't. And so, you can put a | :18:18. | :18:22. | |
fire out in Greece, quite easily. And yet, it is not going to make a | :18:22. | :18:26. | |
huge amount of difference. The problem, as was said, we know at | :18:26. | :18:30. | |
the same time there are huge problems in Spain. That really is | :18:30. | :18:34. | |
important, that could threaten bank runs as Matthew points out before. | :18:34. | :18:38. | |
That is the biggest risk for next week is capital flight. That said, | :18:38. | :18:41. | |
some of your colleagues wouldn't actually care that much if Greece | :18:41. | :18:47. | |
went, or even if the eurozone were to shake itself apart? I'm normally | :18:47. | :18:50. | |
the optimist in these sorts of discussions, but I think that the | :18:50. | :18:58. | |
problem is much deeper than just a liquidity measure, and that solved | :18:58. | :19:02. | |
by individual bail outs in individual banks, it is structure | :19:02. | :19:05. | |
within the eurozone. Until they have essentially one economic | :19:05. | :19:09. | |
policy, to cover the area of their currency, we are not getting to the | :19:09. | :19:13. | |
end of these endless bail outs. And there are some who say let the | :19:13. | :19:18. | |
whole thing blow, and we will get through it faster. But I think that | :19:18. | :19:22. | |
misses the vital problematic ingredient, that is this is a debt | :19:22. | :19:27. | |
crisis. If there weren't the great debts built up in banks and amongst | :19:28. | :19:32. | |
Governments, then you could have a revaluation fairly easily. If you | :19:32. | :19:36. | |
are Greek and you have a load of savings, and your neighbour has put | :19:36. | :19:40. | |
them in a German bank, Greece leaves the euro, then you lose the | :19:40. | :19:43. | |
value of your savings, but your neighbour doesn't, and Spaniard | :19:43. | :19:46. | |
also watch that, and they will say, hold on, there is a risk-free | :19:46. | :19:50. | |
option. Thank you very much for cheering us | :19:50. | :19:55. | |
An American journalist friend of mine used to say that all American | :19:55. | :19:58. | |
stories are ultimately about race, but all British stories are | :19:58. | :20:01. | |
ultimately about class. This week we learned just how badly average | :20:01. | :20:05. | |
incomes have been set back by the recession and inflation, we also | :20:05. | :20:08. | |
learned that the Prime Minister, David Cameron, enjoyed country | :20:08. | :20:12. | |
suppers in his constituency, with the former News of the World editor, | :20:12. | :20:17. | |
Rebekah Brooks. Mr Cameron has, of course, been called an "arrogant | :20:17. | :20:21. | |
posh boy", by one of his Conservative happens. | :20:21. | :20:25. | |
Do voters care if you are posh in times of austerity. We go in search | :20:25. | :20:33. | |
of answers. She told me I couldn't go one of | :20:33. | :20:37. | |
the ropes. Old Eatonians, country suppers, charm personified, these | :20:37. | :20:41. | |
are scenes from a West End play, lampooning privilege, they are also | :20:41. | :20:45. | |
words from a text to the Prime Minister. When Brookes's missive to | :20:45. | :20:48. | |
David Cameron was revealed to the Prime Minister's aides, they | :20:48. | :20:54. | |
shuddered at the perfect poshness of the patter. | :20:54. | :20:58. | |
We don't know how he replied, we know he now l now be riled. This is | :20:58. | :21:04. | |
man so shy of vaunting a guilded youth, had he to be cajoled into | :21:04. | :21:08. | |
wearing morning suit to the royal wedding. Exactly at the same time | :21:08. | :21:13. | |
on Thursday that the text message for inviting the Prime Minister to | :21:13. | :21:18. | |
posh nosh, slightly different news came out, it was an analysis of the | :21:18. | :21:22. | |
income distribution across the UK, it had bad and good news. Income | :21:22. | :21:25. | |
inequality is down to its lowest level since 1997 when Tony Blair | :21:25. | :21:30. | |
came to power. The bad news is median income, those in the middle, | :21:30. | :21:34. | |
have also take an hit. They have shrunk by their largest amount in 0 | :21:34. | :21:40. | |
years. During the recession of 2008 and 2010, average household incomes | :21:40. | :21:46. | |
held up as inflation fell and tax credits and benefits worked. Since | :21:46. | :21:50. | |
then wages have been striped out by inflation. It will take until about | :21:50. | :21:55. | |
2020 for the incomes of families to reach the levels they were before | :21:55. | :21:58. | |
the recession, this is a decade- long squeeze. We also find that | :21:58. | :22:02. | |
some of the actions of the current Government, while maybe well | :22:03. | :22:05. | |
intentioned, increasing the personal allowance, they have done | :22:05. | :22:09. | |
that by cutting tax credits. We know they have supported families | :22:09. | :22:13. | |
over the last decade, less money going to this middle income to low | :22:13. | :22:17. | |
group, is hurting them now. Dealing with historical trends most western | :22:17. | :22:20. | |
Governments are dealing with, but they are not helping themselves. | :22:20. | :22:24. | |
When, in the recent budget there were attacks on simple pleasures | :22:24. | :22:28. | |
like caravans and pasties, though it has been reversed, damage was | :22:28. | :22:31. | |
done, colourful emblems of a Government not getting it were | :22:31. | :22:34. | |
produce. Now Downing Street has done polling, it shows there are a | :22:34. | :22:37. | |
series of reasons why voters are worried about the Conservatives, | :22:37. | :22:40. | |
number two is about the cost of living, and whether this Government | :22:40. | :22:43. | |
gets it, number one is the Government being out-of-touch. | :22:43. | :22:47. | |
people want is somebody who runs the country well, who runs the | :22:48. | :22:53. | |
economy well, improves their take- home pay, better public services. | :22:53. | :22:56. | |
The leaders don't have to be absolutely in touch with the day- | :22:56. | :23:00. | |
to-day lives of people. But if they see politician who is are failing | :23:00. | :23:05. | |
and who are out-of-touch. That combination can be toxic. | :23:05. | :23:09. | |
The Prime Minister used to poll substantially ahead of his party, | :23:09. | :23:13. | |
since the budget, around the first week of this graph, he has sufd and | :23:13. | :23:17. | |
not yet recovered. -- suffered, and not yet recovered. Downing Street | :23:17. | :23:21. | |
know they have a problem, that is why recently the Prime Minister's | :23:21. | :23:24. | |
private secretary wrote to all cabinet ministers asking for policy | :23:24. | :23:27. | |
to show they get there is a cost of living squeeze on. They have two | :23:27. | :23:31. | |
problems in how they deal with, the first is money, for instance, do | :23:31. | :23:35. | |
you go ahead with the planned 3p increase in fuel duty, due in | :23:35. | :23:39. | |
August. If you don't, it costs a huge A money. The other is one of | :23:39. | :23:43. | |
experience. The cost of living debate is something that we all | :23:43. | :23:48. | |
experience bs, it is a very brave Prime Minister --, it is a very | :23:48. | :23:51. | |
brave Prime Minister who says he will do it and manage it and | :23:51. | :23:56. | |
doesn't deliver. It gives the Government worse head winds than | :23:56. | :24:00. | |
their predesos sors, voters going to the next election will be poorer | :24:00. | :24:06. | |
than at the last. Harold Macmillan, you never had it so good, 1959, | :24:06. | :24:12. | |
Margaret Thatcher on a revive year of tax cuts and economy, 1993, Tony | :24:12. | :24:16. | |
Blair, his second landslide in 2001, four years in Government, rising | :24:16. | :24:19. | |
living standards. David Cameron won't be able to seek relax on that | :24:19. | :24:26. | |
platform. There are global trends at play. Cost of living going up is | :24:26. | :24:32. | |
driven by the cost of oil, food costs are uncriesing, those are | :24:32. | :24:35. | |
difficult challenge -- increasing, those challenges are difficult for | :24:35. | :24:42. | |
the Government to manage. You can be heartless, but not | :24:42. | :24:46. | |
hopeless. That is the pollster McIsm. It may be that the cost of | :24:46. | :24:49. | |
living can't be significantly reduced, electorate may anybody a | :24:49. | :24:52. | |
mood to blame the previous Government F the current lot show | :24:52. | :24:57. | |
they are at least trying, posh, with a lower case "p", might not | :24:57. | :25:02. | |
matter. Owen Jones wrote a book called | :25:02. | :25:04. | |
Chavs: The Demonisation of the Working Class Chavs, and is writing | :25:04. | :25:09. | |
a new book on the British establishment, and our other guest | :25:09. | :25:14. | |
went to state schools in Ghana before completing his degree at | :25:14. | :25:16. | |
Oxford. None of this is secret about David | :25:16. | :25:22. | |
Cameron, he has a house and we know he is well off and part of the | :25:22. | :25:27. | |
Bullingdon club. He was elected by the voters, they don't care? | :25:27. | :25:32. | |
Tories, despite the election being handed to them on a plate, a | :25:32. | :25:36. | |
woefully unpopular Labour Government, they only got 36% of | :25:36. | :25:39. | |
the vote. Boris Johnson got elected again, just as posh as David | :25:39. | :25:44. | |
Cameron, in a city like London, predominantly Labour. There are | :25:44. | :25:48. | |
specific London issues, in that particular election, it was a | :25:48. | :25:52. | |
personality contest. Class doesn't matter? It do you don't have to be | :25:52. | :25:55. | |
a conspiracy therapist to think that the Conservatives are the | :25:55. | :25:58. | |
political arm of the wealthy. One poll in March had two-thirds of the | :25:58. | :26:01. | |
population thinking that the Tories were the party of the rich. The | :26:01. | :26:04. | |
reason the Conservatives could not win the last election, was because | :26:04. | :26:08. | |
they cannot win in working-class areas. In the way they once could | :26:08. | :26:16. | |
in the 1950, under the one-nation politics. No wins in working-class | :26:17. | :26:21. | |
areas? That is completely misguided. Politicians shouldn't be prisoners | :26:21. | :26:25. | |
of their background and background isn't destiny, I don't think I | :26:25. | :26:28. | |
would be on the programme, brought up by a single mother, three of us | :26:28. | :26:32. | |
on her own in Ghana, and then here, having been born here. Voters | :26:32. | :26:36. | |
understand the same thing applies to David Cameron. You know, it is | :26:36. | :26:40. | |
not his background that we should be judging him by, he has had a lot | :26:40. | :26:44. | |
of difficulty in his own personal life.'S Out-of-touch, that is the | :26:45. | :26:48. | |
damaging thing? Does get it? I think there has been a lot in David | :26:48. | :26:53. | |
Cameron's life that shows he gets it. More importantly. Hold on a | :26:53. | :26:57. | |
minute, this is something, you told a story about cycling to work, for | :26:57. | :27:01. | |
example, where we now know he does a lot of horse riding at weekends | :27:02. | :27:05. | |
with friends, country suppers, that is a completely different planet | :27:05. | :27:09. | |
from which most British people live? Whether you are born wealthy | :27:09. | :27:13. | |
or in difficult situations, you can have values that show that you care | :27:13. | :27:18. | |
about people who are less fortunate than yourself, and you want to help | :27:18. | :27:21. | |
them. The bigger issue is competence. And David Cameron's | :27:21. | :27:26. | |
polling did very well when he stood up and vetoed the Fiscal Compact. | :27:27. | :27:30. | |
Just stick on this issue, Ed Miliband, David Miliband, I have a | :27:30. | :27:38. | |
list of them here, Ed Balls, Tommy Cooper, Ruth Kelly, all red PPE at | :27:38. | :27:42. | |
Oxford. They are hardly the people you are write beg in your book, | :27:42. | :27:46. | |
they are not working-class, it is not working-class Tories are a rare | :27:46. | :27:50. | |
speeshee, but working-class politicians are a rare species. | :27:50. | :27:55. | |
There is crisis in this kourpbgs only 7% of us went to a private | :27:55. | :27:59. | |
school, not either of us. A third of MPs did. Less than one in 20 MPs | :27:59. | :28:02. | |
come from any form of unskilled background what sort. Increasingly | :28:02. | :28:06. | |
you have MPs who have never had a job outside the Westminster bubble. | :28:06. | :28:11. | |
But it is more of a problem with the Conservatives, infamously, 22 | :28:11. | :28:15. | |
out of 29 members of the cabinet are privately-educated millionaires. | :28:15. | :28:19. | |
It looks like a Government from the 19th century. The key point is this, | :28:19. | :28:22. | |
we shouldn't keep people's backgrounded against them, we are | :28:22. | :28:26. | |
prisoners of our upbringing, we have no control over it. The key | :28:26. | :28:29. | |
test is who does this Government stand up for. This is a Government | :28:29. | :28:35. | |
who slashed the autop tax, and is attacking workers' rights. Let's | :28:35. | :28:39. | |
take the IFS numbers showing inequality has come down. Real | :28:39. | :28:43. | |
wages have also gone backwards? of the biggest reasons for that is | :28:43. | :28:47. | |
that the wealthy are actually not earning as much as they used to. | :28:47. | :28:50. | |
That is not true. What we will see by the end of the parliament, as | :28:50. | :28:54. | |
far as austerity is concerned, the well off are going to bear the | :28:54. | :29:01. | |
biggest brunt of the problems. is utterly farcical, take the | :29:01. | :29:05. | |
Sunday Times rich list, looking at the 1,000 wealthiest people, | :29:05. | :29:09. | |
quarter have donated to the Conservative Party. Their wealth | :29:09. | :29:13. | |
again surged this year, last year their wealth went up by a fifth, | :29:13. | :29:17. | |
the year before by 0%, the biggest. It is boom time for the top, | :29:17. | :29:21. | |
economic crisis for the rest. you see this as the core of the | :29:21. | :29:24. | |
issue for the next election, the question of whether we are all in | :29:24. | :29:27. | |
this together, or we are dividing Britain along these lines? You have | :29:27. | :29:31. | |
put your finger on it, out-of-touch is a lazy way of criticising | :29:31. | :29:36. | |
someone you disagree with, who you think is better off than you. | :29:36. | :29:40. | |
an issue for the next election? is not, Labour should be very | :29:40. | :29:44. | |
careful. Out-of-touch is being used as a substitute for having a | :29:44. | :29:47. | |
credible alternative plan. I think the next election will be about who | :29:47. | :29:51. | |
has got the right plans to get Britain out of this mess and build | :29:51. | :29:54. | |
a brighter future. You are absolutely right, there has to be a | :29:54. | :29:57. | |
coherent alternative, it is lacking, from Labour at the moment. But what | :29:57. | :30:01. | |
you have to face is this, it is a long-term trend with the | :30:01. | :30:03. | |
Conservatives, every time the Conservatives have won a general | :30:03. | :30:11. | |
election, since 1955, has been a -- the fact is the reason Tories will | :30:11. | :30:14. | |
not win is because they are not able to win working-class voters | :30:14. | :30:17. | |
like they once did. We will find it out at the next election, thank you | :30:17. | :30:20. | |
very much. In a moment the review show and | :30:20. | :30:24. | |
matter that is in Glasgow. On tonight's show we will be | :30:24. | :30:30. | |
delivering our verdict on Rock of Ages, that is the movie musical for | :30:30. | :30:35. | |
which Tom Cruise learned to sing. True Love, a drama series on BBC | :30:35. | :30:39. | |
One where David Tennant and Billie Piper improvise their lines. The | :30:40. | :30:44. | |
new novel, Park Lane, and an exhibition of Invisible Art, we | :30:44. | :30:48. | |
will have live music from Amy McDonald, do watch. | :30:48. | :30:52. | |
That is all from Newsnight, we will have more from Paul in Greece on | :30:52. | :30:58. | |
Monday. We wanted to leave you with a Streisand effect, when you try to | :30:58. | :31:06. | |
ban an image, you make sure more people see it. That didn't stop | :31:06. | :31:15. | |
Buute council from banning matter that Pane from photographic -- | :31:15. | :31:22. | |
photographicing her school dinners and commenting. Many, many hits | :31:22. | :31:29. |