05/11/2012 Newsnight

Hello from Washington. By this time tomorrow, we shall be about to

learn who is to take on the Tennessee of the White House behind

me, and the role of leader of the free world. Could Obama really lose

Today The Boss, summoned the aid of The Boss. I stood with President

Obama four years ago, I'm proud to be standing here with him today.

Because he promised me a ride on Air Force One! His challenger kept

on hammering home the same, unadorned, message. I know how to

change the nation, how to get it back on course, how to create jobs,

how to get a balanced budget, how to get rise in take home pay.

mystery, of course, for a visitor to this country s how a man won

such a resounding endorsement from the American people, could

apparently have put it all at risk. What happened to this charismatic

presidency to put it all on hazard, was he dealt a bad hand, or did he

misplay it. In Miami, George Bush's brother seems confident he knows

who will reap the benefit. numbers are up a bit, I'm pretty

optimistic, that in Florida, at least, Governor Romney will win.

Tonight, in London, after Newsnight reports, allegations of a cover-up

in the North Wales abuse inquiry, David Cameron acts. I will ask a

senior, independent figure, to lead an urgent investigation into

whether the original inquiry was properly instituted and did its job.

The former care home resident who now alleges abuse by a senior

Conservative politician in the 1970s gives us his response.

think it is excellent news. I just hope we are going to have an

investigation into the abuse, and not necessarily the inquiry.

One thing this country isn't short of, is people who claim to know.

They include cefalogical analysts, who believe the outcome was

determined by an event last night. The Carolineer panthers, upended

the red kins. You can call an election is whether the red skins

win their match. In this case, it is Obama taking a bath. After the

opinion poll has forecast the closest outcome in many years.

Never before have so many people have to listen to so much tub-

thumping or fawning, or have to endure a torrent of half truths,

name-calling and bad-mouthing. It would, some calculated, take 345

days just to watch the million television ads. Tomorrow is the

moment of truth. And Mark Urban is here. Is it really as close as they

are saying? It is very close in terms of how many votes each man

will get, well within the margin of error of most polls. The American

system is not a simple popularity contest, works through this thing

called the Electoral College, that picks the President on the basis of

delegate sent by the states. If we look at the graphic that sketches

out what the two candidates have to do, we will see that President

Obama is much closer to that Winning Post, in the middle. The

white line, with about 243 delegates pretty much in the bag,

from the called blue states, pictured on the left there. Mitt

Romney has much further to go, with about 206. Even though he may be

gaining ever more popularity in those states, it is not going to

help him, unless he can dominate those 89 in the middle, the called

battleground state. Even if Romney wins Florida, the one with the most

delegates to the Electoral College, 29, that's still not going to do it

for him. But if President Obama wins just two, Ohio, where he has

been showing very strongly in the polls, and Virginia, where the race

is closer, that would be enough to win him the election. That is why

most of the pundits in this town think that President Obama is on

course for victory. There has been a lot of nattering, indeed we

perpetrated some of it ourselves, about the effects of the Hurricane,

what are they? There has been some very interesting polling done

around this in the last few days. President Obama, who, of course, in

an attempt to win those battleground state, has been out

there today, he has been in Ohio rocking the vote with Jay-Z, and

earlier Bruce Springsteen. He looked very good, very presidential,

co-ordinating the whole relief effort to the Hurricane, everybody

knows that. Mitt Romney has also been out, trying to get the key

votes in the battleground states on his side. He has been down in

Florida, where the shots were taken. He had to effectively suspend

campaigning for a few days at a critical moment last week. Some of

the an all cyst by a respected political blogger here, said that

over the past week the chance of an Obama victory has gone up from high

70s%, to well over 80%. He as describes a good deal of that to

the Hurricane-effect. A lot of people think it has made the

difference. We will see tomorrow. As Mark suggests, the biggest swing

state of the lot is Florida. Obama took it last time, before that it

was the key state in the face-off between George Bush and Dmitri

Gorelov. The latest polls -- Al Gore. The latest polls show the two

candidates tied. Laura Trevelian is there, who is going to take it, get

off the fence? That is the million dollar question, if I was confident

enough I would bet my house, I'm not going to. You can feel the

tension here tonight. The two campaigns are really wrestling down

in the mud for Florida's 29 votes in the Electoral College. I

understand the early voting figures are in. The Democrats have a narrow

lead, nothing like as big as it was in 2008. Remember all that chaos in

2000 hanging chads and all that. Already you have Republicans of

accusing dirty tricks and stopping turnout. It is down to the wire. We

have been across the state, Tampa to north of Miami, where we caught

up with the Obama campaign. Just a few hours left. Nearly 140

million Americans can vote. But the result will rest with those who

live in the 106 counties which switched from Republican to

Democrat last time. No matter whether you are black or white or

Hispanic or Asian ornateive American, young, old, rich -- or

native American, young, old, rich, poor, you can make it here in

America, that is what we are fighting for.

The towns and cities that matter most have been inundated with

campaigning. It is not about policies or issues,

it is about hand-to-hand combat, fighting street-by-street,

capturing every single last vote. At the close of this long campaign,

it really is a numbers game. The architect of Barack Obama's

spectacular rise from local politician to President claims the

Democrats will win again. What will it hinge on in the end, who get the

most of their coalition out here in Florida? There is no doubt about it.

I think there has been this sense that it has been propagaged by the

Republicans, that our base will be less motivated, I think they are

highly motivated. In Mitt Romney is to win the White House, he must win

Florida. They call this stretch of central Florida the highway to

political heaven. Who whoever wins the territory either side of the I4,

wins state. You have the I4 between Tampa and the Space Ghost. Whoever

wins that the I4 quarter wins the state elections and presidential

races. Jeb Bush knows a thing or two about

winning elections. It is two Presidents in the family, he's

tipped one day to run himself. Right now in former Florida

governor is stumping for Mitt Romney. Florida has been a

battleground state for so long that both sides are really good at it.

Our side this year has the intensity on its side. The number

of early votes on the Democratic side, relative to four years ago,

where they had an incredible army of support, is down 70%. Our

numbers are up a bit. So, I'm pretty optimistic that in flour

dark at least, Governor Romney will win. In a bakery, just off the

interstate, Jeb Bush is trying to make that happen. Crucially the

voters are elderly women and white men. Crucially those groups have

been shift to go Romney. Take Alex Rosemurgy, who voted for Obama last

time of the I tend to identify more with Romney's moderate Republican

beliefs than Obama's belief, particularly with regard to the

economy. If the Democrats are losing white voters, they must get

more his Spanish, female and younger voters on their side. This

bakery turns out to be a cross section of the entire race. Who

will the staff vote for? Obama. going to vote for Obama, that is

who I'm voting for. Welcome to the Caravana, a

distinctly Hispanic way to get the vote out. They dance Porto Rican

voters to the polls. Even though American is looking for diverse,

and Latinos say they will vote Democrat, she's leaving nothing to

chance. Ardour on the campaign trail is needed, when it is thought

the coalition of minority voters has lost enthusiasm for the

President. We understand that minorities in general are those who

identify with the Democratic party, we are focusing on African-

Americans and Latino. The women's vote will be important for us. In

the I4 quarter, which is the battleground of all battlegrounds,

we need to get the vote out. Mitt Romney made his final stop in

Florida, his plea was simple. have one job left, that is to make

sure that on election day we make certain that everybody who is

qualified to vote gets out to vote. We need every single vote in

Florida. The key word here is "qualified", in the fight to

maximise turnout, Republicans are concerned about voter fraud. So

watch out for legal challenges and the dreaded recounts if the race is

as close as it looks. Floridians have been voting early,

queuing round the block. I see lots of young folks, I see lots of

ethnic voters. Local Republican randy Johnson watched in a

reflective mood. I would have to guess that we are probably not 30%

of this line. Does that surprise you, that Democrats still have

enthusiasm for Barack Obama? does. It does. I think it probably

surprises many people in my party. We don't quite understand it.

24 hours to go, does Barack Obama's message of hope still resonate?

Despite the economic turmoil and political division? Or will

Romney's troops prove the more committed and enthusiastic? Watch

this space. The cream of US punditry is here to

tell us how the race stands on the last day of full campaigning. We

have Tim Carney, from the Washington Examiner, the New York

Times economic policy reporter, Annie Lowrey, and Time Magazine's

deputy Washington bureau chief, Michael Crowley. The big mystery

for a lot of visitors here, is how Obama, who swept in so triumphantly

last time round, could, apparently, be at risk of losing the presidency.

Just what happened? He inherited a poisoned chalice. Sometimes I

wonder had he known about the economic catastrophe coming, would

have wanted to run for President at all. It was a really hard time to

take over. Republicans will say, he's had plenty of time to try to

repair the economy, it has been four years, you can't blame George

Bush any more. I think fundamentally this was a man who

was curse today begin with, and still face as very high

unemployment rate. He really will be fortunate to be re-elected with

the rate as high as it is. What went wrong? Simply, the recession

was much worse than people expect, and the economy is in a terrible

state right now. There is some evidence it is improving. It is

getting better. People are disappointed with the economy and

it has tremendous reprecussions in this case. Is begs the question is

this a presidency worth winning right now? A lot of people expect

the economy to recover, that is why Obama would be upset if he lost. I

disagree it was a mess he inherited. I have been focus on the suburban

vote in Ohio and Virginia, a lot of people thought Obamacare turned

them off, most people don't understand the content, but the way

he pushed it through. It was a little heavy-handed, that turned

off a lot of voters. Obamacare is something vaguely like the National

Health Service in Britain isn't it, just for the benefit of anyone

watching? It is one step in that direction. Can I just add. More

people have axe sets to free healthcare, that is the basic --

access to the free healthcare? Incidentally I think he's a victim

of his own high expectation. He set himself up to fail for making such

huge promises. It is a her receipt kal belief for some out here. --

heretical belief for some out here. Let's talk about the campaign, it

seemed ugly and devisive and fractious and bitter and bad

tempered, what did you think? think the campaigns tend to be some

what contentious in this country. Just bad-tempered. Times are very

tough in the United States. This was a campaign unusually focused on

policy issues, about the saving of the American middle-class and

creating jobs. These were two men almost at odds on how to do that.

And were making impassioned cases about it. Each was classically

redefining what the middle-class was. They seemed to talk about

different groups of people when they talked about "the middle-

class", the fabled middle-class? American politics the middle-class

is almost everyone. Its different groups of people or one immpossibly

large group of people. It is supposed to resonate with everyone.

The nastiness comes from the President, he bears a lot of the

blame. He didn't have much of a record to run on for a lot of

reasons, some which were his fault and some not. Right out of the gate

he set out to define Mitt Romney as an unacceptable alternative.

Knowing he was not likely to be re- elected on his own basis, and make

Mitt Romney unacceptable. People say the referendum is on the

incumbent, Barack Obama was about making it on the challenger, Romney.

What would a Mitt Romney President be like for the rest of the world?

Romney doesn't have a core set of beliefs, he has an approach to

topic. He goes ahead and tries to be systematic, he's a moderate at

heart. What he wants to do is not laid out by any ideology, in the

way that gub was, or to some extent, Obama is. On foreign policy s the

third debate made a lot of people less worried about him, people were

afraid he would be too hawk irk, he seemed very measured in that --

hawkish in that way, he seemed measured. What do you think?

times Romney's rhetoric was very tough. Some of his senior advisers

were throwbacks to the Bush years, when there was an interventionist,

pro-democracy American foreign policy. In the debate he tempered

it. You were more likely to see American support for an Israeli

strike on Iran or American strike on Iran, if Romney is President.

You would see a Democratic push in the Middle East for Romney. More

aggressive I would say. Will an Obama second term be different to

the first term? He will face the huge fiscal challenge the United

States will have. He will have to work with Congress that will be

divided, to solve that problem. After that, Congress has not

changed in the last four years, it remains absolutely at loggers, it

is not clear he will get nearly as ambitious legislation through as in

the first. Tackling issues like immigration, but really it will be

about taxes, and about spending cuts, and either President Romney

or President Obama, that will be the first and major thing. At least

in the early terms of either's term. I was hoping we could avoid talking

about the fiscal cliff that people are talking about here. This is a

real serious crisis in the public finances, due to hit January 1st,

which means big tax hikes or spending cuts. Either of them will

have to deal with it? In the most recent crises like this, the

Government shut down debate followed by a death-sealing debate

like we have had in the last four years. It looks like no solution,

then they kick the can down the road, putting it on to a later date.

Nobody wants to go over the cliff or come up with a solution, I'm

confident they will do that again. It won't be a crisis? It would be

if they dug in their heels and stopped anything from going through.

It becomes a crisis, it seems to me, when the global financial markets

start to lose faith in the United States. That is really the deadline.

I think it is possible we will punt and punt and punt. There is not, it

is puntable, for a while longer. The question is s and people

disagree about this. It is "puntable" for a while, that is a

kicking term, isn't it? It may be, we the blames differently here. I

don't know how it will be interpreted. It means you can delay,

fundamentally, to make it clear, my sense is we could delay for a while

longer. Let's hear from someone who knows?

There is this deadline on January 1st, where spending cuts come in

and tax rises. The economy remains very weak. The question is, it

looks like there will be a second trigger, some kind of tax reform,

but when will they create that deadline for themselves. How much

will they spook financial markets before them then. You have seen

foreign Governments, the IMF, the OECD say please don't crater your

recovery, because it matters for us too. Crater your recovery, we will,

right, let's get off the fence on this question of whether they are

all really here under false pretence. Is it as close as people

are trying to suggest. Or is it just that people like you and

pollsters and everybody else has to justify their existence? No race is

ever over. We say, in American football we have a saying, that's

why they play the game, on Any Given Sunday someone can win.

will win? I would give Obama something like 4-1 odds to win.

Romney could win, but it would be shocking. It is coming down to

confidence in polling in states like Ohio and Virginia that remain

very close. Gut instincts? It looks like now it would be harder for us

to have a President Romney or President Obama. This is above my

pay grade. I don't know how valuable the gut instinct is, the

polling shows a clear picture, it is more a epistobale, very fancy

word, puntable, I spoke to some Republicans who sound awe

thefrpbtic, and spinning and sounding in good cheer, they are

sounding effective. The polls did worse in 2008 and

2004. Even the geekiest of the election

geeks won't attempt to claim that this election is up there with what

happened four years ago, when Obama won the presidency. That was seen

as a transforming event. Not just because it took a black man to the

White House, but because of what he himself promised. What happened? We

have taken the measure of his time in office. Hello Chicago, tonight,

because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining

moment, change has come to America. Change, so many candidates for the

White House have promised it. amazing many American voters still

believe them. Perhaps they yes or no for somebody who can transcend

the grid lock and systemic deadlock of Washington politics, in order to

bring about something really meaningful. How has President Obama

done? Few politicians would have relished taking the helm, in the

midst of global economic crisis. From the outset, Barack Obama knew

that he would be judged primarily which what he could do to breathe

life back into the US economy. We know the challenges that

tomorrow will bring, are the greatest of our lifetime. Two war,

a planet in peril. The worst financial crisis in a century.

answer came in an $800 billion stimulus package. It was old

fashioned job preservation, with some new policy twists. Among the

economists advising the new White House team was jar rad Bernstein.

The first time the economic team got together was mid-December 2008,

it was snowy and dark in Chicago, and dreary, the discussion was

really about just how deep the economic recession of. At the time

we didn't have the data to know how very deep it was. Our sense was

this was a serious downturn. Could it deliver meaningful change fast

enough? If he don't have it done in three years, it will be a one-term

proposition. The effects of bailing out the economy, unemployment may

not have got dramatically worse, but it hasn't got much better

either. Still hovering around 8%. The President said himself, and I

will quote him, "I gestion there weren't enough shovel-ready jobs".

What it did, a lot of the money, the $800 billion, was money for

union work. A lot of the union work was not work ready to be done.

was reform of the healthcare system that offered the President his best

chance of changing the lives of most Americans, and breaking

Washington DC's gridlock. It will make coverage affordable

for over 30 million Americans who do not have it. 30 million

Americans. Healthcare countdown, and Democrats tell us they are

making changes to the bill. package they called Obamacare,

combines patient, employer and Government funding, to extend

healthcare to tens of millions. But it also triggered a bitter battle

But they didn't stop the President, even if the full plan requires Mr

Obama to win re-election. Victory really looms quite large, relative

to some of the details that got hammered out in negotiations with

opponents, you have to understand that in American politics reforming

the way we provide and deliver healthcare has been a goal of

Presidents for decades, literally decades. The fact that the

President was able to get that over the legislative goal line will

almost certainly be an important part of his legacy. Let's resist

the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettyness,

and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long. President

Obama, can you hear America now. Once the Republicans regained

control of the house of representatives in 2010, funding

the Government theself became increasingly fraught. Leaving

unanswered basic questions about spending and taxation.

If the President were to be re- elected, we have crisis right on

the horizon in January, be it on tax, he is questation, dramatic

dsequestation, and drat dramatic tax cuts signed into law. His feet

will be in the fire. The President himself seems to recognise his

failure to foster a less adversarial relationship with

Congress. If you ask me what is my biggest disappointment, is we

haven't changed the tone in Washington as much as we would like.

You don't bear responsibility for that? As President I bear

responsibility for everything, to some degree. To those who would

tear the world down, we will defeat you. President Obama wound down one

foreign war, Iraq, and gained public approval for it. But he

ramped up another, Afghanistan. He considered it the "good" war, but

he increased involvement there at huge cost, and for quite

questionable benefits. Indeed Afghanistan might have been much

more of an issue in this election, but for a particularly successful

raid into Pakistan. Good evening, tonight I can report to the

American people and to the world, that the United States has

conducted an operation that killed Osama Bin Laden, the leader of Al-

Qaeda. But what of foreign policy in its less violent forms? The

administration tried to reset relations with Russia, Iran, and

the Muslim world, more generally. It stood clear of Syria, and

attracted Republican criticism for abrogating leadership. Part of the

Obama administration is tackling issues that are profound, even

historic, and having an expectation that they could be addressed and

resolved, in four years. Few of the issues that Obama has confronted

realistically, could have been resolved in one-term. The President

and his supporters have adapted their narrative. Re-election, they

say, is necessary to consolidate the gains of the first term. Be

that in healthcare or overseas. It's not a bad argument, but it

does suggest that the President's first term has hardly transformed

politics in the way many hoped it would.

My guest was in the room when many of the key decisions of President

Obama's first term were made, in his role of chairman of the Council

of Economic advisers. Voted funnyiest celebrity in 1979, he's

Professor of Economics in the Booth School of Business, he joins me

from there. Do you think we expected too much from President

Obama? Probably a little bit. You know, he did accomplish a great

deal. But there was certainly an air of hope that he would

accomplish even more, I think. I think the grim realities of getting

out of a financial bubble, driven - - financial bubble-driven recession,

have been harder than anyone thought. And I think the opposition

of the Republican Party to what the President was doing, which started

really before he even took office, you know, the very day the

President took office, he tried to get a whole lot of his nominees for

the top jobs confirmed, and they were already getting held up by

Republicans in the Senate, before he was even in office. So I think

that those two things, combined, have made for, you know, what's

clearly been a tough slog getting out of this.

He said after the last election, he said, change has come to America,

he couldn't change Washington though? Well, you know, it deends

how you look at it. He -- it depends on how you look at it. He

certainly hasn't changed that there is a group of people who oppose

anything he does. If he suggests policies that are historically

Republican ideas, they oppose them, just because he proposed them of

the I joke that it felt like we're back in the old east German judge

at the Olympic, they have the card filled out before he's even done

anything. He could hit a triple flip, they are still giving him a 2.

He hasn't able to change that. On the other hand, if you look at what

did he accomplish, he was able to change some pretty significant

things. They still remain controversial, but to finally get

universal healthcare in the country, to finally regulate the financial

sector in a way that the deregulation of that sector really

caused a lot of the crisis. To end the war in Iraq, to kill Osama Bin

Laden, all those seem pretty significant changes, things he

promised he was going to do. But, it's hard to change that partisan

tone, that is definitely proved true.

You have been privvy to some of the discussions and decisions, on one

of his own benchmark, which was the promise to reduce the level of

unemployment, he didn't meet his own self-imposed target. Does he

personally feel a sense of failure there, do you think? Well, I would

be a little careful with that. The number that gets quoted by his

opponent governor Romney was a forecast that was made before there

was an Obama administration, it was made in the transition, in the fall

of 2008. And it said that if you pass a stimulus, the unemployment

rate would not go above 8%, it said if you did not pass the stimulus,

the unemployment rate would go all the way to 8.9%. Of course it was

well above even 8.9% before the first dollar of the recovery money

went out the door. I think it wasn't just the in coming

Government that made the mistake on the forecast, it was the entire

private sector forecasting industry that made that mistake. By six to

eight months into the administration, the official

forecast, put out by the Government, that you can look up in the budget,

was that by the Fall of 2012, the unemployment rate would be 8.2%.

Which is even a little above where it is now. Quite early on, I think

the President and the administration understood what the

circumstances were going to be. I think he definitely want the

unemployment rate to come down. He says every time the jobs numbers

come out even if they improve a lot or little or stay stagnant, he says

it is a long waying to. It is a persistently high unemployment rate

in the US, even though it has improved a lot.

Of course he wants it to come down. Let me ask a simple question, to

which you can give a pithy answer or not, many of us outside politics

are baffled by why people want high office. Do you think he has

actually enjoyed being President? Some days, some days not. He

certainly looks, his hair is a lot greyier. I used today say, I had a

-- greyer, I used to say I had a full head of hair before I got to

Washington, I don't know what happened. I'm sure there are days

he would prefer to be back out here in Chicago. But, you know, he

probably didn't go there for the fun, and he hasn't been

disappointed. Thank you very much for joining us.

That's it for now. If things go to plan, which is always a pretty

foolish assumption, we will be devote all tomorrow's Newsnight to

the election, and who America thinks is best capable of fixing

things here. For now I leave you to Paul Mason.

Thank you. The Prime Minister today ordered an urgent inquiry into the

handling of child abuse allegations at North Wales children's homes in

the 1970 and 1980. The move came after reporter, Angus Stickler,

revealed on Newsnight, on Friday, allegation of a cover-up, during a

judicial inquiry, led by the High Court judge Sir Ronald Waterhouse

in the late 1990s. One of those abused claimed a former senior

Conservative politician had been involved in the abuse. He's now to

put the allegations direct to the Welsh Secretary, David Jones, in a

face-to-face meeting tomorrow. Decades ago, children living in

North Wales care homes were raped and abused, it has been alleged

they were used by a paedophile-ring. One particular night that I always

recall, is where I was basically raped, tied down, and abused by

nine different men, sexually. and another former resident told us

one of the abusers then was a senior Conservative figure. That

claim prompted the Prime Minister today. Child abuse is an absolutely

hateful and abhorrent crime, these allegations are truly dreadful, and

they mustn't be left hanging in the air. Police investigated some abuse

claims, then there was a lengthy inquiry, chaired by Sir Ronald

Waterhouse, a former High Court judge. He heard from 650 former

residents of children's homes. But Steve Meesham told Angus Stickler

of the Bureau of Investigative Journalism on Newsnight, it didn't

get to the truth. Why on earth we had had an inquiry, if we had to

leave out 30% of the abusers, and basically, I was told to do that. I

was told I couldn't go into detail about these people. I couldn't name

them and they wouldn't question me on them. The terms of the inquiry

were drawn up by the then Secretary of State for Wales, William Hague.

It was to inquiry into the abuse of children in care in the former

County Council areas of Gwnyeth and clud, since 1974, to examine

whether the authorities responsible could have preent vented the abuse,

or detected -- prevented the abuse or detected it earlier, to look at

how they respond to allegations of abuse, and crucially, excluding

decisions to prosecute names individuals. Those terms of

reference are coming under close scrutiny. I will be asking a sen

York independent figure, to lead an you are -- senior, independent

figure, to lead an urgent investigation into whether the

original inquiry was properly constitutes and did its job and to

report urgently to the Government. Today we went back to Steve Meesham,

he welcomed the Prime Minister's intervention, but. We also need an

investigation into how the police dealt with this and handled it,

that is very important. We need that done by an outside police

force, maybe the Met, they could come in and look at that. I also

think to have an inquiry, I hope he does not appoint a judge.

He would prefer an expert, for this programme, we understand it will

most likely be a judge that is picked. Others doubt how helpful

the inquiry will be. I don't think a focus on the constitution of the

inquire helps a great deal. I remember reading through the

inquiry when it reported, and felt at the time, that it did the best

that it could, with the evidence that had been gathered. I think it

was limited. That was a problem. A number of complainants were unhappy

with the fact that some of their allegations were not pursued.

cabinet secretary is asking people to go through archives to see if

there are any relevant documents. Many have a critic has written to

the Prime Minister and said this won't work, and the police have to

go through their archives too and the Intelligence Services. Will it

lead to prosecutions, Steve Meesham has his doubts? I think we will get

an investigation, I think they will say this and that should have been

done. There is numerous reasons we won't get any trials or court cases.

Who will attend them? A lot of the people that named certain people

have committed suicide, or they are deceased now. It is such a shame.

How many of them? I'm ware of 13 people that have committed suicide

before and during the Waterhouse inquiry. There has been more sense.

It is very sad. Joining me is Tim Loughton, until September the

Children's Minister, and Owen Smith, the shadow Secretary of State for

Wales. Gent, is this enough, Cameron has acted quite quickly

following the propbl on Friday, is it enough? -- programme on Friday,

is it enough? I think the Prime Minister has done the right thing

today. It is absolutely right he treats this with great urgency, he

feels very strongly about what is going on. We need to get to the

bottom of has gone on. We have over five inquiries going on, the BBC,

the health service, Jimmy Savile, whether the previous inquiry came

up with the right results and was thorough enough. The public is

getting concerned, how much longer is this going on for, how many

different institutions and establishments will be dragged into

soerm institutional child abuse. Can we absolutely be sure this

isn't being repeated somewhere in the country now? I -- I agree, the

Prime Minister has done the right thing today. It was the only thing

he could have done, given the volume of concern and the new

allegations made. The first and most important thing that needs to

happen is, if there are fresh allegations being made, those need

to be investigated, firstly, by the police, and pursued to their

fullest extent. If there are substantiated claims, then clearly

they need to be prosecutions. Beyond that, I think the Prime

Minister is right to suggest this evening, that perhaps, a more

holistic and wide-ranging review. We have already suggested that

perhaps a broader public inquiry might be required to get to the

bottom of this. We are hearing signals out of Number Ten, that it

may be that something bigger is needed. Is that the way it is going.

Do you think we will end up with a big judge-led public inquiry?

think it has to be. It is another day, another aspect, another

inquiry. The time has now come, and it is not just the Savile business,

it is not just what happened in Wales. It is also the child sexual

abuse that we have been having with gangs of Pakistani-British men in

the north of England, more arrests this weekend over in led. It is a

different form of what was happening perhaps in Wales back in

the 1970s and 1980s. I think we need to have a really punchy, high-

level, serious, intensive look, at the history of child protection

over the last ten years, and make sure every institution has a really

robust child protection policy. And those people who weren't brought to

look before are brought to look -- brought to book before are brought

to book now. Those who remembered it and covered it were supposed to

be the cat that particular moment, it was -- cathartic moment? Some of

the Vic ims felt it was the case and Waterhouse had dealt with it.

There were three previous sets of investigations, a number of people

had been convicted. The key thing is if Waterhouse and the North

Wales abuse allegations are to be the centre of this, then the role

of the victims, and the views of the victims, must be considered. It

is not right that all of the victims will welcome a fresh public

inquiry. We have the Children's Commissioners nowadays, and the

bodies that decide what they want out of this. Their views have to be

central. The whole thing centres on an allegation of an unnamed senior

Conservative politician from the past. There will be people in your

party thinking, is our institution now going to have the same soul-

searching process that the BBC, the National Health Service, Broadmoor,

have been through in the past four weeks. Do you think that is where

it might go? I said on your programme, some week ago, and I

said on a separate radio interview, when a political connection came up.

Why should we be surprised, we have had the BBC and the church, and all

sorts of institution, who are no some way connected with child abuse,

going over many decade, in a institutionalised way. We shouldn't

be surprised at the political connection as well. What I want to

see, and we have four Children's Commissioner, one of the things

that came out of the Waterhouse Report, of the creation of the

Welsh Children's Commissioner, they should be coming together, I want

to speak to the Children's Commissioner for England, to meet

up, this has tentacles across the UK. Every institution needs to look

in on itself to see if they have now robust policies to avoid any

reoccurrance of this happening now, and if there are guilty parties

there now, they should go rooted out. Do you not see this as a

moment where the whole of British institutions have to look at their

past, and come clean about the way in which they have dealt with this,

and its extent it? Not to be defensive. Listen to the victim,

there is one thing that bind together the Savile and this, the

victims haven't been listened to and believed. They need to be

believed. The resores we are devote to go it, are not devoted to

chasing down child abusers today? They are, we have brought things

like PCO 0, and SION, things have radically changesed and we need to

do more. People are coming forward, because they have more confidence

of being heard. Steve Meesham said the police wouldn't believe them

and roughed them up because they didn't believe them, so they didn't

come forward, they weren't taking seriously, that has to change.

Gentlemen thank you very much. It's A lot of the papers are buying the

idea it is a cliff-hanker. The Financial Times finds a

financial angle, the investment funds in gridlock. The fiscal cliff

we were talking about earlier. The Telegraph runs with the abuse claim

against top Tory, "trawl dreadful" quote -- "truly dreadful". The �624

insult to a rape victim there. That's all for tonight, Jeremy is

back tomorrow night for election A widespread frost, in England the

frost would have lifted. The odd icey patch too. Sunny spells across

the south. Some brightness along the south coast. The cloud will

increase, a day, certainly northern England, of occasional rain and

strengthening breeze. For some it may stay largely dry. Parts of the

south-east staying largely dry, a few spots of rain possible. Mainly

dry towards the south west. The afternoon a good deal cloudier than

the morning, occasional bright spells possible. Eastern areas of

the country, 7-8 degrees. Some parts of south-west Wales stay dry

and fairly bright. To the north occasional rain throughout. Rain in

Northern Ireland it should thin out. To the east brightness. Again

fairly breezy, as is the case in Scotland. Further rain at times in

western areas. To the east the high ground, we will see some cloud

breaks possible later in the day. The difference between Tuesday and