06/11/2012 Newsnight

expensive election campaign in expensive election campaign in

history is over we are about to learn what it has wrought, the

decision America is makes effects us all, the men fighting it out for

leadership in the west, battled each other, even on polling day

today. The last day of efforts to prevent his being a one-term

President was devoted to getting out the vote. Last-minute call,

pleas not to forget to vote. There will be no second chance for Mitt

Romney, either, if he didn't do it today, it is back to the drawing

board for his whole party. We have Democrat and Republican

pollsters reading the numbers back stage. And the novelist, Martin

Amis joins our election panel. On this side of the Atlantic,

allegations on Newsnight prompt fresh inquiries into child abuse in

North Wales. The Government is treating these allegations with the

utmost seriousness. Child abuse is a hateful, abhorrent, and

disgusting crime, and we must not allow these allegations to go

unanswered. The Government promises to listen, but could all these

inquiries drown out the truth? It's not strictly accurate to call

this election day any longer. Tens of millions of Americans had voted,

even before today dawned, and they will still be voting in the Alucian

Islands at 6.00am tomorrow morning. This is the day the votes are

counted. It is 5.30pm, and it will be hours before we get anything

certain. If the polls were right in predicting a knife-edge vote, there

are some key states, like, for example, Ohio, who may only

discover what they have decided well into December. Let's try to

get some early indications now with Mark Urban. Read it for us? All of

this campaign has really centered around these called battleground

states. The majority of states are either called blue or red, in UK

terms, safe seats we would call them, so the key marginals are

where so much of the campaigning has been focused. Clearly each side

feels it is going into this with a chance of winning key marginals,

but the truth is, Governor Mitt Romney has a bigger hill to climb,

where he has to go to capture the 270 seats needed to appoint him

President, in the Electoral College. In some places he seems to have

done very well, in North Carolina, most polls suggest Governor Romney

will get that state. Florida, a huge prize, 15 seats in the North

Carolina seat. If Democrats win in Florida, that will be a hugely

positive sign for them, but the Republicans would like to think

they have got it. On the Obama side of this equation, polls have shown

consistently for him in Ohio, with 18 states. People see that as the

battleground of battlegrounds, and even in a state like vir gainia,

which he was pretty fortunate, -- Virginia, which some say he was

pretty fortunate to get last time, some people say he could take that

again and hold on to the state. you think Romney can win it? Well,

of course, so much of what we have said, what we have speculated about

is based on polling evidence. Those polls do seem to give President

Obama the edge, particularly in the marginals. But, of course, they

could be wrong. There are suggestions that they sample too

many Democrats in the way the polling is structured. There are

also suggestions in some past exit polls that more Democrats have

tended to answer the exit pollsters than Republicans. They could be

wrong. However, the Democrats, of course, feel they are right, and

they feel confident, as we found earlier in virginia.

Fredericksberg, Virginia, one of those battleground states, where

the Republicans have a real hill to climb. In the surrounding counties

there is plenty of support for Mitt Romney, in town, even his campaign

workers concede, there is a clear majority for Barack Obama. I just

voted for Obama, I'm so excited, this is a huge election year for

you, we all need to show support. I will definitely voted for him in

2008 and now again this time, four more years, I'm so excited. Thank

you, Obama! He's my choice this time. Mr Romney? I'm a registered

independent, and I think he will lead the country in a good

direction, I like Obama too. It's tough. Obama, what else did you

want to know! Why would you be voting for him? Because of his

phenomenal record, especially his first two years in office. Back in

2008, Barack Obama won this state for the Democrats for the first

time in more than 40 years. In order to get re-elect, he

desperately wants to hold on to it -- re-elected, he desperately wants

to hold on to it. The early signs we have seen this morning are

encouraging for the President. At these polling stations, high

turnout had made the Obama campaign corkers eboullient. Is high turn

out good for the President? Yes, a lot of the Obama supporters are out,

they didn't get complacent, that was the only real concern, that

there was a big grass-roots effort last time from the Obama campaign,

like never before. I think there was some worry that wouldn't happen

again for an incumbent, but I think it has.

But the dynamics of high turnout, like most things political here,

are subject to partisan argument. Certainly the Romney canvasers felt

it might favour their man. The conventional or received wisdom

seems to be is high turnout is good for the President. I think perhaps

you don't think so. Why would it potentially be good for your

candidate? A lot of folks are fed up with Obama, what he has been

doing for the last four years, that is getting more people out to the

polls. Typically you would expect that large turnout would favour the

incumbent, this time around I think we will see something else. In this

final hour of the campaign, nobody wants to concede. And this pattern

in Virginia, was also playing out on the national stage. Mitt Romney

voted in Massachusetts this morning. But this state is one of those

where the contest is a foregone conclusion. So the questions were

about another of those key marginals. REPORTER: What about

Ohio? I feel great about Ohio. Goodbye, thank you, take care,

Jennifer, you want to come with me to Cleveland. That is where he flew,

breaking the usual convention about halting campaigning on polling day,

in order to keep up the fight until the very last minute. His running

mate, Paul Ryan, meanwhile, urged party workers in Wisconsin, another

key state, to redouble their efforts, in the face of what he

described as a "Democrat surge at the polls".

As for the President, he chose to project an image of calm assurance

about the outcome. My name was Barack Obama, you know the

President of the United States. Shooting basket ball hoops in his

Chicago home town, and stepping back from jetting around those

battleground states. I also want to say to Governor Romney,

congratulations on a spirited campaign, I know his supporters are

just as engaged and just as enthusiastic, and working just as

hard today. We feel confident, we have got the votes to win, but it

will depend ultimately on whether those votes turn out. I would

encourage everybody, on all sides, just to make sure that you exercise

this precious right that we have. That people fought so hard for us

to have. The fight for key marginals has,

then, focused on turning out the base. In Virginia, the Republicans,

for example, made more than four million phone calls to possible

supporters, and messers Romney and Ryan, dozens of visits. Tonight it

will become clear whether that paid off, or whether the reports of high

turnout are confirmed, and that has turned it President Obama's way.

Let's see if we can learn a little bit more now with the latest

numbers. We have the Democratic pollster, Celinda Lake, and her

Republican counterpart, Ed Goeas. Right who is going to win? We are,

the Democrats. Barack Obama! This is completely independent! That was

not my prediction this morning. My prediction would be that Mitt

Romney would be right over at 50%, 50.4% and above. It reveals what a

bogus science polling is if you come to contradictory conclusions?

Neither of us said polling, we said "predicted". As As I said to one

earlier today, this is our sixth presidential election, I have

called three of those for a Democrats, she has never called it

for a Republican. That may tell you how we read the numbers. Or our

parties. When pollsters have been saying, as they have been for quite

a while, it will be very close. That's really the truth. You think

they are right, obviously, you are pollsters? I thought it would be

one of three scenario, close Obama win, close Romney win, or surge at

the end for Romney. The storm pretty much took out the surge

Romney, it close -- it will be close one way or the other, very

close. I think it will be close, as you said earlier in the programme,

it will be turnout. And both sides have substantial turnout operations.

Is there any indication that one side is not getting its vote out as

well as it should do, or getting it out better than the other side?

think the Democrats have a harder job to. Do our voters have,

traditionally have less voting history. We don't have the

intensity of 2008. It is always easier to be the outsider party,

that always is more energised, but we have an unparalleled operation,

if there are experts on either side for turnout, it is the bau,

campaign. I would answer it two different ways, normally the

Democrats have a big surge in early voting. We matched that now this

time. It looked about even between the two parties. Going into the

election day the Republicans do a better job and have more intensety.

The real battle is today. What do you think will have determined, if

you are looking at issues, what do you think will have determined the

outcome of this election? Come on, you are the pollster, you are

supposed to know! I think the economy is the big factor, of

course. The economy in the United States is still limping along, and

it is always hard for an incumbent to win re-election with bad economy.

Particularly turg the summer the Democrats were very effective -

during the summer the Democrats were very effective in drawing a

stark contrast between Mitt Romney, about whose side we were on. I

think the women's issue matters, Democrats win more when women vote

for them more than men vote for Republicans. This was the gift we

kept on giving. I agree of it the economy. One of the things we have

been watching is Mitt Romney on who can best handle the economy, jobs,

spending and, as of last night, for the first time, and small edge on

taxes. Which is what the Democrats had take Anne way from Romney

earlier in the year. -- taken away from Romney earlier in the year.

Mitt Romney led on all those issues and led on who can make something

happen. There is about 70% of the voters that are pocket book voters

that is the group of voters Mitt Romney has, on those really voting

for the economy. Which states, do you think, or the endless focus

upon a very, very small number of electorates, which state will

decide it tonight? Ohio. Do you agree? Ohio, I think you have to

watch it closely and Virginia, there has been late talk on

Virginia being very close. In terms of the Democrats maybe doing better

than expected. I would also say Wisconsin. We think we are going to

win Wisconsin. So the polls will close pretty shortly in Virginia,

in an hour's time. At that point we will be able to tell who has won

the presidency, we don't have to stay up all night! That is too

Earlly I think you will be able to tell. Who won -- early, I think you

will be able to tell who won the presidency, there is the state

closing and then the polls being done. I could tell you, you could

have this election dispued for a number of days -- dispued for a

number of days afterwards. There are ballots set aside not sure they

will be counted in Ohio, and a lot of dispute could go on here.

could be looking at something like Bush and Gore? Or more so. Even

worse, the new law in Ohio, is you have more provisional votes in

...I'm Sorry you have to explain what a provisional ballot is?

example, if you filed for an absentee ballot, didn't use t and

show up on election day, you set aside that ballot to make sure you

didn't vote twice. Provisional ballot. Somebody determines whether

or not that vote sellable, after the event? That's right. The new

law in Ohio is if you have too many provisional ballots they are all

set aside for ten days, and not touched. Which makes it even worse

than 2000. It is extraordinary how you people run things, people

standing for hours trying to get into a polling station. We think

the same thing. I thought we got it from you. Not this way of doing it.

Look forward to talking to you, when you have some hard

intelligence, I hope. The way the system work here, the fate of the

nation lies with the voters of a handful of states, the so-called

wing states, which Mark and our two pollsters were taking about. We

have reporters in three of them. First Richmond Virginia, a key

state Mitt Romney must capture to get to the White House. What is the

most interesting thing that happened there today? The most

interesting thing that has happened here today is people are queuing

and queuing for a long time to get to the poll. The turnout looks to

be high. Let as just deal with a few facts, there is a lot of

speculation, and a lot of impression, but the Virginia

Election Board, says it looks as though the turnout will be higher

than it was in 2008, and it was a record then. Conventional wisdom

says high turnout is good for the Democrats. Could it be that the

Romney campaign that has really managed to get the vote out. We

will know something in about an hour-and-a-quarter. It is

electronic voting, we should get an impression then. There are a couple

of key counties to look out for. If they have gone for Obama, it would

be a very significant victory and make it very, very difficult for

Romney to win, not only in Virginia, but the rest of the country as well.

So, if he wins in Virginia, he's probably going to win nationwide?

That is the speculation, and then you would say the money that has

been spent might well have been worth it. One statistic for you,

$131 million has been spent just here in Virginia, for probably

about four, four-and-a-half million voters who will go to the polls

today. That has brought 186,000 TV and radio ads, it has bought that.

When we went to the polling stations, a couple of students said

they couldn't watch television or listen to radio over the past two

week, because they couldn't bear any more adverts. It makes the UK

elections look like a nickle and dime store. Thank you very much.

Our correspondent following voters in Cleveland Ohio. What has excited

you there, Clive? I tell you what's excited me, the fact that all the

political ads have come to an end here. I have been here two days and

I'm fed up of them. Let me give you one statistic, 150,000 times, that

is the number of times that all President Obama's ads and those

groups backing him, have been shown on television here in Ohio over the

last few week. For Mitt Romney 41 ,162. If you strung all the ads

together, and ran them back-to-back, it would run for four-and-a-half

day. That is the horror show that is political campaigning in this

swing state. 18 Electoral College votes, both candidates, both

campaigns pushing for them for weeks and weeks and weeks, that is

why they spent a fortune and put so many ads out here. I'm not the only

one glad they are coming to an end in the state.

No wonder you have taken refuge in a pub! But if he doesn't win Ohio,

how much trouble is he in? Well, look, the thing about Ohio, it is

very difficult for a Republican to get to the White House, if they

don't win Ohio. The fact is the 18 Electoral College votes, because of

the way that Democrat votes and Republican votes are distributed

around the country. Ohio is the easiest way for Mitt Romney to get

to the White House F he doesn't win hoe Ohio, he has to get a

combination of other states that are perhaps leaning too far towards

the Democrats, therefore, it is virtually impossible for him to

close the deal and finish the job. For the President, for him, he's

looking to get Ohio, along with states like Wisconsin, and Iowa,

and these will provide what they have been calling a "firewall", a

protective firewall that would stop Mitt Romney getting the 250

Electoral College votes he needs. But it will be close. The polls

close in an hour-and-a-half, you have provisional ballots that might

not be counted for ten days. If it is a tight race it could go on for

weeks. Laura Trevelyan has been testing the mood from Miami in

Florida. Last night you spent an awfully long time refusing to call

it. Are you prepared to do so tonight, do you think? I'm going to

be reticent again, one thing I can tell you is there are a lot of

alligators in the swamplands in Miami, this had he -- if they had a

vote they would be dragged to the polls. It is fascinating today, I

have been racing around polling station, started first thing this

morning, meeting campaign workers, we are being spun 360 degrees.

Everybody telling me ernestly, they have it in the bag, Mitt Romney

winning by six, and Barack Obama nabbing the state and getting the

Electoral College. They can't both be right. If you look at until

recently in this state, he had a bit of a lead, here in Florida it

is very, very close. One estimate had both men on 49.75%. I'm sure

you can do the math, probably with me with my CSE can manage that one.

One thing for sure, if it is a very close result, within 0.5% of the

vote, there will be an automatic recount.

No more guff about alligators, what would tip the balance? Turnout, and

remember here in 2008, Republicans, like across the country, viewed it

as an historic election. They had eight years of George W Bush, they

were feeling demoralised. Some would have stayed home and Barack

Obama's vote turned out in huge numbers. If Republicans are feeling

this time very energised, remember this is a retirement state a lot of

elderly people, more than elsewhere in the country. If they come out,

that could tip the balance. One thing we did find out today, apart

from not speaking to alligators who can vote, is turnout here looks to

be very high indeed everywhere we went.

It is election day and Liberty City, Miami, these streets are some of

the most depriefd and dangerous in America. Gangwarfare is rife, and

murders are Monday and prospects are few. Yet the mood today is

upbeat. High turnout among black voters was

crucial to Barack Obama's 2008 victory. Democrats sigh it as a

firewall in defend -- see it as a firewall in defending the

presidency this time. Who are you voting for? Obama. Why? Because I

see he's for us, he's for us. Because I think he can make a

change. Mitt Romney, he want to take everything from us. The last

four years in the economic crisis have been particularly tough on

America's black community, which has suffered rising unemployment

and poverty. But in this neighbourhood, at this polling

station, the turnout seems just as high as it was in 2008. Outside the

polling station we met Sabrena, whose son, tref von, was gunned

down on his return to the shops. It resulted in race row in which the

President was involved. People have to have their voices heard, and

this is the only way to do it. you thinking about your son today?

I'm thinking about other people, I just want them out to vote. Also

outside was an electoral observer from the Obama campaign. Her job is

to make sure people aren't prevented from voting. Inside, a

lawyer from the Romney campaign was checking that only the eligible

were casting ballots. In polling stations across Miami, Democrats

and Republicans are watching the process intently, just waiting to

cry foul. The crisis from Florida's disputed election in 2000 run deep.

There seems to be lawyers from both parties circling. Like shark in the

water. Are people waiting for things to go I don't think? Yes. I

think people will file a grievance just on the thought that they may

have been infringed upon, they may have thought they were, as opposed

to something actually happening, just to make news and headlines.

Republicans say they are not trying to suppress turnout by monitoring

the voting, they are stopping fraud. In 08 there was widespread cheating,

a lot of people who weren't eligible voted and weren't alive

voted. Every poll will have at least two to three watchers from

each parties, making sure there is no discrepancy to when people turn

out to vote. Things were running smoothly until

they ran out of ballots mid- afternoon. Harrington's opponent is

not only the Congresswoman here, but the chair of the Democratic

National Committee. We have been through this in Florida before. 527

votes separated Al Gore from the presidency, we have, at the DNC,

had an early protection team in place, the voter protection team on

the ground here in Florida and the battleground states for months.

skirmishing is intense, because the prize here is so big. Florida's 29

votes are vital to Mitt Romney's hopes of winning, he has been

gaining ground here. If the President loses here in Florida,

can he still win the White House? Oh yeah. We have built the largest,

most significant grassroots presidential campaign in history.

And we have many path, many more paths than Mitt Romney has, to 270

electoral votes. We win Florida and it is game over. We win the

election. I'm planning for us to do that today. But there are other,

numerous other paths, and more paths than Mitt Romney has. We will

know the result in the sunshine state in a few hours time, or we

won't, if not it could take much longer to resolve.

Whatever happens in the long night looming ahead of us here, the

elections of 2012 are already notorious for their vagueness, and

brass-necked boon dogging. Where Democrats and Republicans go from

here, Eleanor Clift, and Jim Gilmore, we're joined from New York

by the writer, Martin Amis, who now lives here. Martin Amis, have you

been excited by the spectacle of this election? More frightened and

depressed than excited. What I can't understand is why it is close,

and it didn't looks a though it was going to be until three or four

weeks ago. Where Romney was widely ridiculed as a lousy candidate, and

couldn't get through a day without some atrocious gaffe. And then it

all got turned around by that first debate in Denver. I can't

understand why the impact of that was so great. It wasn't that Romney

was so eloquent, it was, I think, that Obama looked exhausted, and

his presidency looked exhausted. And there may even have been a hint

of contempt in the way he engaged with Romney. I don't think

Americans like that. It hasn't been pleasant watching Obama being

reduced from what he was in 2008, and I don't think the American

people have liked it either, that is why it is close, against all

rational interest, in my view. You, famously, quite recently,

decided you would prefer to live in America than in England, as it now

is, would you feel the same way under a Romney presidency? I would

be very depressed by a Romney presidency. I came here for

personal reasons, out of no disaffection for England, but I

have been thinking, in the last few week, that you know the Republicans

have got themselves in a state where the Reagan that they refer to

so ref vently, would, in fact, be a pariah in the present party. I

wonder if we could imagine a Conservative Party in England that

had got so far to the right that they would have to disown Margaret

Thatcher. It is quite extreme what is going on here. It is a kind of

hypocrisy. Tax cuts for the rich, there is not a democracy on earth

where that would be mentioned, let alone tabled and passed and given a

second term. And yet, they are pressing forward with that, even

though it is a long-exploded policy. It is as if they have lost a

certain amount of pou-d' err. OK, we will come back to you in a

moment. What has happened to your party that it can be characterised

in that way? I don't think most people would characterise it that

way. The Republican Party is very diverse, I'm a conservative, but

I'm not like every other conservative. There are a lot of

different points of view. But the heart of the matter, for this race,

is the question of the future. What actually should we be doing in

order to revitalise the American economy, get more jobs, get more

growth. And some how, in order to get the economy growing that it

just favours the rich, that is not right. We don't want tax cuts, but

tax incentive, so people will invest their capital, create

something exciting, new and dynamic, and we can get forward motion. That

is the theme of the Romney campaign. Where as the President has been

saying, I have been here for four years, give me more and things will

turn around. There has been no driving, forward motion with the

Obama campaign. That is why it is close. Eleanor Clift, you have seen

a good number of elections here, when you look at the state of the

Republican Party now, if Mitt Romney doesn't win it tonight,

where are they left? First of all, I don't think you have to go back

to President Lincoln, to find a Republican candidate to find it

difficult to survive in today's Republican Party. Go back to Ronald

Reagan, who did indeed raise taxes, the great conflict today is we have

gross inequality in this country, we have a huge deaf vit, and the

Republican Party just -- deficit, and Republican Party just remains

adamant on no new taxes on the upper income. If Romney loses an

election that many people thought he would win, because of the poor

economy. And because President Obama failed to meet the

expectations that he set for himself, and that the country

expected of him. I think one response will be that he wasn't,

Mitt Romney wasn't Conservative enough. I think there will be some

divisions within the party. I think there are enough, hate to use the

word "moderates", it is overdone, maybe "sensible", Republican,

especially in the Senate. Who are tired of voting against things they

actually believe in. The President himself says if he is re-elected,

the fever will break. He thinks they will work with him. I would

like to believe that as well. terms of election, generally, what

has this one been like? It doesn't feel like a real ground-breaking

election in the way that, for example, the last one was. These

big epocical changes, am I wrong, what do you think? If Romney wins,

I believe it is because the American people are tired of

mediocrity in the economy, they want something fresh and new, they

want some excitement. We understand our responsibility as Americans in

the world, and the work we have to do in order to lead and work with

allies. We can't do it with a week economy. I think Americans

understand all this, and they know that it hasn't worked over the last

four years. That kind of programme doesn't work. And I disagree with

Elinor about this notion that some how there is gross inequality in

the country. There are always going to be inequalities of income in

every free society, include tag in the United Kingdom. But the fact is,

what -- including that in the United Kingdom. But the fact s we

need to create investment and opportunities for people to have

forward motion, and rise above their stations in life they have,

and move forward. That is what the Republican ticket is about. Do you

think this was a really significant election? I think it is significant,

because if Mitt Romney is elected he would try to undo loot of what

President Obama has done, in terms it of regulation -- undo a lot of

what President Obama has done. In terms of regulation, and extending

universal healthcare. In terms of restraints on the business

community, in the wake of the overreach of the creating of the

meltdown in 2008. I think Mitt Romney talks about this forward

motion of the economy, he hasn't told us how he would do that.

Except, to direct more money to the called job creators, who have been

doing very well the whole first decade of this century, and they

haven't created the jobs. So, I don't see what Romney represent,

except an attempt to undo some of the measures that have introduced

some equality into the society. According to the polls he means a

lot to quite a lot of people, perhaps just a majority? We are a

divided country. The 50-50 country in all of that. But look at the

Republican Party, it is 90% white, the Democratic that returns to

Congress after the election will be 50% minority and women. Which party

is America? Martin Amis, what do you think we should make of the

possibility that President Obama might, according to the polls, lose

this election? What do we make of it? We should salute the deeper

rationality of the American people. There are many vins of severe

rationality. We should -- vein of severe rationalty. We should blush

for a future Romney, who believes the return of Christ will divide

his time between Jerusalem and Missouri, will be the leader of the

free world. Thank you all very much indeed. That's it for the moment,

back shortly, now over to you. For all the people who say they

were abused, in or around children's homes in North Wales,

only to have their complaints ignored, a message today from the

Government, "we will listen to you". The Home Secretary has announced a

police inquiry into the last police inquiry, and a judge will lead an

inquiry into the last judicial inquiry. Inquiries are spreading

fast. In a moment we will discuss whether a desire to make up for

past wrongs risks making more mistakes. First this report.

For many years now, former residents of children's homes in

North Wales, have alleged they were abused by a paedophile-ring in the

1970s and 1980s. In 1991, seven care workers were convicted of

abuse, the allegations of a ring persisted. The Government set up an

inquiry, its report concluded there was no evidence of a paedophile-

ring, beyond the care system. Former residents, witnesses at that

inquiry, and their lawyers, have claimed it was too limited in its

scope. It was to inquiry into the abuse of

children in care in the former County Council areas of grin ned

and Clwyd since 1974 -- Gwynedd and Clwyd since 1974, and focus on

those responsible for the children. The police inquiries were also said

to be flawed. Theresa May said there was to be an inquiry into

that York. One of the victims in the report, Steve Meesham, alleged

the inquiry didn't look at abuse outside the care homes and a

renewed allegations against the police and several individuals.

The Government is treating these allegations with the utmost

seriousness. Child abuse is a hateful, abhorrent, and disgusting

crime, we must not allow these allegations to go unanswered. And I

therefore urge anybody who has information, relating to these

allegations, to go to the police. The head of the national crime

agency is to investigate any fresh allegations, and look at the way

the police handled the original complaints. They will be helped by

the Serious and Organised Crime Agency, or SOCA, and child

exploitation -- the Child Exploitation and Online Protection

Centre, CEOP, and a judge will review and secretary the verpls of

the Waterhouse Inquiry. Some police officers say things are very

different now. If we have made a mistake, I think we have to be

honest about it. Times have changed, we are a given force, a different

generation that deal with the cases now, than the ones investigating it

now. Things have moved on, things have changed. I don't think there

will be any issue about people coming and telling us issues that

might involve ex-officers, or politicians. I don't think there is

going to be any issue about that. Some say that these reviews are

themselves too narrow. Mr Speaker, the lesson of Hillsborough, and

hacking is that a narrowed down investigation is the basic building

block of a cover-up, to limit this inquiry to North Wales and Savile,

would, in my view, be a deriliction of the Home Secretary's duty. It

would guarantee that many sickening crimes would remain uninvestigated,

and some of the most despicable paedophiles will remain protected

by the establishment that has shielded them for 30 years. Others

say the new inquiries are unwarranted. If you look at the

terms of reference, right at the beginning of the inquiry, and which

I have read. They were looking at abuse of children in care. They

heard evidence from a number of witnesses. They had all been in

care, or some people had been social workers and some outside the

care system. They weren't restricted, really, in looking at

children being abused in a particular care home. They looked

specifically at children being taken out of the care system or

homes and being abused in hostels or hotel or whatever it may be.

These allegations are abhorrent, the abuse despicable, the strong

language of politicians expresses a widely felt revelgsvulgs. But

securing convictions in these cases are very difficult, even though

police forces pursue them harder than in the past. 20 years ago

Clwyd Council commissioned a report on the alleged abuse, Karen Lumley

was a councillor then, she read it, and remembers crying a lot at the

detailed accounts, thinking of her own young children. She understands

the strong reaction now. Yes, I think the initial reaction is, how

does that happen? How do ordinary human beings do that kind of thing?

And my initial reaction is how do we punish them. Even 20 years on f

we find people, we should be punishing them. It is not fair that

we have let those young people down. And what of the people at the heart

of this? The victims of many years of abuse. Steve Meesham says he was

confident the Government was taking them seriously. But he wasn't yet

confident the investigations would be done properly. With us, Malcolm

Johnson, the solicitor we saw in that report, and from Belfast, Jim

Gamble, the former head of the police's Child Exploitation and

Online Protection Centre. The experience of many victims is

they feel let down by the system, institutions and people they went

to. Can those people have any more confidence now? I think they can

have a lot more confidence now. One of the positive legacys from the

Savile investigation, is that people are being much more victim-

centered. We are thinking about what we do. I think many of us

involved in the child protection world, formally and informally, now

think about the language we use. I was contacted by a former victim

after my last appearance, who really didn't like the use of the

term "historic", when I reflect on that, they are absolutely right,

these victims aren't historic, they are suffering every single day. The

abuse inflicted on them, may be many years ago, because they feel

they haven't got justice. I think there is a real change. This is a

real change in mind set, I do believe one of the poss is, more

victims are up -- positives is more victims are coming forward. Has the

Waterhouse Inquiry been unfairly maligned? I think it is, it was an

extensive inquiry, that took place over many months, and interviewed

many hundreds of witnesses. The allegations is children taken out

of care homes and abused in hotels and so on. They say they weren't

listened to? They say so, but if you look at the terms of the

inquiry and it examined, they were listened to. But the inquiry,

unfortunately, showed the evidence wasn't strong enough to show a

major paedophile conspiracy. What is the point of the inquiry?

would ask that question. I feel there is political impetuous behind

this and politicians feel they need to do something. I would question

whether the resources are best put into another child protection issue,

rather than this, which has been investigated. You worry this is

political activity for the sake of it? I do, I'm afraid. I think the

Waterhouse house -- Waterhouse Inquiry did go into these issues,

it was sensitively handedled, I think they felt they had to leave

no stone unturned. With the police investigation there were a number

of conviction as well. To my mind I was rather surprised there would be

an inquiry into the inquiry. Just to get your view on this, the terms

of reference, and what the Waterhouse Inquiry did. As far as

you are concerned, were the allegations about activities

outside children's homes themselves, properly investigated? That's the

key issue. We don't know. There is an issue of perception and

confidence in those people now watching what happens. There are

several things need to happen, there needs to be a scoping, to

look at the voracity of the allegation against that particular

inquiry. I think we are getting very mixed up, I think the

Government in launching different inquiries in different areas, is

perhaps simply going to congest the space. Do you think some of this is

political, by the way? I'm not sure it is political, I think the

Government feels a need to react and use strong language. Isn't that

political? Let me say this, in child protection you learn to pause

and plan. I think there is a lack of pausing and planning here. We

have had Savile, there needs to be a single overarching inquiry, the

shadow Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, has said that, and we have

heard Tim Loughton say that. I couldn't agree with them more. The

issues that deal with individual allegations of potential crime,

need to be dealt with effectively by the police. This week I actually

felt like standing up and applauding when Keith Towler, the

Children's Commissioner from Wales, came out and advocated on behalf of

victims in the way he did. We don't see that often enough. There needs

to be a balance, there needs to be an overarching review that looks at

the lessons that can be learned and how they can be applied across a

broad geography, in health, education, policing and care. There

needs to be individual scoping, by police investigations, to look at

other reasonable grounds to suspects offences. There is 28

people referred to in the report. Where are they today, did they

commit other offences, were they ever placed on the sex offenders'

register, any time nurture. That will give you a sense of how

effective that investigation of. Would you support an overarching

inquiry, you talked about the investigation not going ahead?

child protection it is an enormously delicate issue. If you

have a scatter gun approach with inquiries, you won't get anywhere

at all. What about one big inquiry? I don't think it would assist, I

don't think there should be another inquiry into these allegations. If

the Government has decided there has to be, then there has to be. I

question seriously whether it will make a difference to the victims.

You would just leave it? I think I would, yes. What about the victims?

Well, again I would say, those victims gave their allegations to

the inquiry at the time. They are saying they weren't listened to,

but if you read the terms of the inquiry, they were all listened. To

but unfart Natalie, the inquiries cop -- unfortunately, the inquiry

concluded there wasn't enough evidence to take the allegations

forward. The police already investigated the matters. The

history of the North Wales inquiry is the police were fairly

aggressive in their investigation, I'm not sure they come in for a

great deal of criticism. Thank you very much. With more on the main

news, here's Jeremy. We still have our pollsters here.

What are the exit polls showing? The early exit polls are showing

Obama up a couple of points in most states. Do you agree on that?

Supposedly they are. Several of the measures that she was getting of

the first run, they do three runs, 10.00, 2.00, and 5.00. She was

looking at some of the first run and some of the second run.

Republicans usually turn out later in the day, as opposed to on return

from work rather than going to work. Is there anything you have

discovered with turnout and exit polls that gives comfort to Romney?

In Ohio, on the early vote, now that is done. We had a 100,000-vote

increase on the Republican side, 100,000-vote decrease on the

Democrat side, in a state Obama won last time but only 239,000 voit.

Election day becomes that much more -- votes. Election day becomes that

much more important. Reports are election is turnout is high, apart

from Cleveland? That is the state they have to come out with from a

big margin. We have heard, since them, they are trying to push the

Democratic vote out. But the provisional ballots are increase

anything that area. Have you heard the same thing? Yes, that

originally clove land was lower turnout, but we are pushing it.

That would be bad news for Obama? It will be, if we don't get it

picked up in the last few hours. long night. We will be here

tomorrow night, working out what the result, when eventually we get

it, means for America and the rest of you. Meantime there were claims

earlier today that a voting machine in Pennsylvania, that every time

you voted for Obama, it registered Romney, if it was true, it was like

life imitating art. One vote for McCain, thank you. No, I want to

vote for Obama. Two votes for McCain. Come on, it's time for a

change. Three votes for McCain. votes for President McCain. I only

meant one of those votes for McCain. This machine is rigged. Must tell

President McCain. This doesn't happen in America,

maybe Ohio, but not in America! maybe Ohio, but not in America!

Ahhhh. Chilly out there, patchy rain and

drizzle around western areas, further east a little brightness,

sunshine at times. Certainly dry and bright across eastern areas, we

saw through the afternoon. North West England, for instance, exposed

to that strengthening west low wind, continuing rain and drizzle at the

time. Through the Pennines gusty winds. Not as much sunshine through

the east Midland. Some brighter spells at times. Cloud amounts will

always be fairly large. Particularly across west Devon, and

western Wales, don't be surprised to see further rain or drizzle

continue from the morning. The wind continue to strengthen during the

day, it is a fairly mild wind, temperatures of 9-12 possible. That

will be tempered by the strength of the wind. That wind continues to

feed in occasional dampness across Northern Ireland. Rain or drizzle

throughout the day at times in the west of Scotland, brighter to the

east. Aberdeenshire, Angus and Fife. The difference between Wednesday

and Thursday will not be a great deal. If anything the winds may

ease down a little bit after a breezy neat. Brightness across

eastern and southern parts, certainly around western coasts and

hills we will see further rain and drizzle at times. Western Scotland