08/11/2012 Newsnight


08/11/2012

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This is a momentous week, first, the US election, now a power play

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that's at least as important. The confirmation that the Chinese elite

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will steer the country through the next decade. We assess the extent

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and limits of the change in the next ten years. China will evolve

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its own type of democracy, whether the west accepts it or not. America

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and China are tied together in a tight economic embrace, they are

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the two mightiest nations in the world, will one squeeze the breath

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out of the other. Now the campaign is over, the

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President has to return to the practical realities of dealing with

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China. We speak to Henry kin injure, the

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architect of Chinese relations, in his first interview since President

:00:59.:01:09.
:01:09.:01:12.

Obama was elected. We will discuss China's future path with our guests.

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The Prime Minister issues this warning about trial by Twitter.

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This is really important, right, because there is a danger, if we're

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not careful, that this could turn into a sort of "witch-hunt"

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particularly against people who are gay. Are some politicians being

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unfairly hounded by social media. The leadership of the world's

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second-largest economy is being replaced according to plan. But the

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in coming President and his gang of six will come under increasing

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internal and external pressure. As Hu Jintao hands It's All Over Now

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to Xi Jinping, the claum mour over the country for the elite is even

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louder. The need to do move millions from

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the country to city more intense, anger at the surveillance state

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:02:23.:02:24.

louder. Hu Jintao said there will be no western-style democracy, will

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you how long will this fuel protest d -- how long will this fuel more

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ports protests. There is theatre, spectacle, but no

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:02:50.:02:52.

drama. Improvisation is not encouraged, nor, indeed, expression.

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Nor, indeed, voting against. The script at the party Congress is

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simple. The handover of leadership from one generation to the next.

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The outgoing man, Hu Jintao, leaving them with a stark warning.

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TRANSLATION: Combatting corruption, and promoting politic kalg

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integrity is a clear-cut and -- political integrity, a clear-cut

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and long-term commitment of the party. If we fail to handle this

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issue well, it could prove fatal to the party and even cause the

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collapse of the party and the fall of the state.

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:03:47.:03:47.

Recent events have shown, the order is fragile. This man, until

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recently the third-most powerful man in China was disgraced, after

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his wife was convicted of murdering a businessman. What world needs now

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is calm. One thing you can say about China is after the Cultural

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Revolution their leader decided they needed consensus, and didn't

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need radical departures in policy. One of the reasons that the former

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chief was Petersburged, he wasn't that kind of leader, he had a lot

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of different ideas. He threatened to upset the balance. Now there

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will be a lot of continuity. Tygart square massacre in 1989 --

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Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 brought a split between the party.

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The leadership vowed never to let the debate on political and

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economic change splil outen to to the streets. In-- split outen to to

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the streets -- spill out on to the streets.

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The committee falls into two camp, one loyal to Jiang Zemin, and the

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other for Hu Jintao. They built in the coastal provinces,

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stand against democratic reform, and a more rapid move to the free

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market. They are, in this sense, the most capital communists in

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China. The group around Hu, came up within the party's youth league.

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Their slogan, "promote social harmony", is code for delivering

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better lifestyles to peasants and alleviating social conflict. The

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new leader, Xi Jinping, comes from the Jiang faction. Who is he?

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experienced a lot of hardship, he went to the countryside at the age

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of 15, he spent seven years in the backwater regions in China, and

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started working at every level of the Chinese Government. Until now.

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This is a Shanghai academic, whose best-selling book is said to have

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influenced the new leader. This is a personality, and this is very

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important. Often he can speak his mind openly. He has his own style.

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What will he do differently, to Hu Jintao? I think he said many times,

:06:19.:06:29.
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whenever he takes up a new position. He wants to see what his

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predecessor has done, he wants to maintain some continuity. But the

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party can't afford just continuity. Outside the Great Hall of the

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People, this brief and stifled protest, just a small echo of the

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problems China faces, the middle- class wants a bigger slice of the

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pie. The Internet is awash with grievance. The environment under

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severe strain. Xi Jinping, with strong links to the military, could

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be the man to advance where his predecessor could not go, towards

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more democracy within the party, and more political freedom. But

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will he? Understanding what they are trying to say at this Congress

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is not easy. Take this, the political bureau has

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comprehensively pushed forward the social, economic, political, social

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and conservation culture construction. With various causes

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achieving remarkable results. It is impervious to logic, how would you

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argue it wasn't remarkable or comprehensive, and what causes. But

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the sub-text to all this is clear, the Chinese leadership has seen the

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Arab Spring and is terrified of a Chinese spring.

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The Chinese now talk about how to prevent a revolution. People

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compare the French Revolution many, many years ago, saying that you

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need to sometimes start to change, that will start political reform,

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this is the most dangerous period for revolution. Some conservatives

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also like this argument. Facing strikes and disturbances,

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always heavily repressed, the leadership, in September, provoked

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the own disturbances. Picking a fight with Japan over disputed

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islands. And allowing large street

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demonstrations to close down Japanese factories. There is much

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to the island's dispute that is, again, theatre, but it has left the

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west and China's neighbours wondering where things go next.

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Well, the outgoing leader dropped a heavy hint today. TRANSLATION:

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should enhance the capability to accomplish a wide range of military

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tasks, the most important of which is to have the ability to win local

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wars in an information age. Last year President Obama authorised a

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major redeployment by the US military to Asia. Known as The

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Pivot, it involves moving 9,000 US Marines from Japan, to Guame,

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Australia and a-ha I wouldia, together with strategic systems,

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putting four ships into the vital lane of Singapore, moving a fifth

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of ships into the Atlantic, including an aircraft carrier to

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Austrailia. There is thought of moving some of the troops in

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Afghanistan to the Philippines. American pivot was the most

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important thing the Obama administration did. It was amazing

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that in none of the debates was there any discussion about its

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appropriateness, or what it's future should be. Since the

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financial crisis of four years a the Chinese have been much more

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assertive in foreign policy, particularly in these territorial

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disputes in the South China Sea. They have been saying some pretty

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outrageous things about, for example, the fact that none of the

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states in that area can talk to each other about how to deal with

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the rising China, they all have to simply deal with China bilaterally.

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On the eve of the Congress, an influential party thee rice warned

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that America's real -- therapist warned that America's real threat

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was underground religious actives, dissidents, internet, and

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vulnerable groups, with core constituent sits, with the aim of

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infiltrating China's grassroots. There was outrage when this was

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published, because of the overtones of moo era witch-hunts. Those close

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to the leadership -- Mao era witch- hunt. Those close to the leadership

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say there is no problem with that at all? China will develop its own

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type of democracy, whether the west accepts it or not. I describe it as

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selection, plus some kind of election. Over the past 2,200 years,

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since China's unification in 221BC, China was run by a one-party

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political structure. At the top level it is always a unified

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confusion state, without this kind of structure the country

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disintegrates. If you check with Chinese what is the greatest fear

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in their life, they would agree that it is "chaos". And, right on

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cue, the past master of dealing with chaos was brought out today.

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Jiang Zemin himself, 86 years old, the grand symbol of ri presidential

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was given centre stage. On -- repression was given centre stage.

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On a day of heavy symbolism, it left many thinking Back to the

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Future. My guest joins me now. We have heard there of the maintaining

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:12:17.:12:22.

of continuity with the new premier. What do you think his rule will be

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like? Let me say, I was struck tremenduously in the Great Hall of

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the People, by the similarities of going to those big Congresss, that

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the Soviet Communist Party used to hold, back in 1987, 18988, and 1989,

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when it was trying to -- 1988, and 1989, when it was trying to work

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out where it was going to go to. There is lots of major differences,

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no Gorbachev figure here. Never the less, that sense of change just

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kind of bubbling up all round, and yet nobody knowing how to harness

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it, where it's going to take them, it was really very strong indeed. I

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think, I mean this new leadership is nothing very much more than a

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kind of extension of the previous one. Everybody knows it has to do

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things, and it has to do things fairly radically. Everybody thinks

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it's not really going to be up to the job of doing anything very

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radical. It was pretty amazing, really, to listen to President Hu

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going on about the urgent need to do something about corruption. This

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is right at the end of ten years of his rule. Why didn't he do anything

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about it. He has talked about it plenty of times before. It just had

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the sense of a party system which is faced with huge problems, as

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well as huge successes, and doesn't really know quite what to do, and

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so just kind of goes on, walking along in the same direction, in the

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hope that something will happen. that case, what do you think will

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characterise China's relationship with a second term of an Obama

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:14:19.:14:19.

administration? The attitude towards America's really

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interesting here. I have watched it change over the years. The old

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attitude used to be that of a kind of resentful, secondary power,

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which felt that it was being held back, it was being unfairly

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criticised, unfairly attacked, and so forth, by the United States.

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That's changed now. After four years of Barack Obama, the Chinese

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system doesn't really have any great fears about him. Well, I have

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to say t it is not a very nice thing to say, really, in a way. But

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one figure with very, very strong links to the top party people was

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saying they think they can push him around, quite easily. So, the whole

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approach has changed towards America. Frank low, it is in this -

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- frankly, it is in this part of the world, in Asia, at the moment,

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that the Chinese see their main area of operations.

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We will be discussing that later, thank you very much indeed.

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During the American election, both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama

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levelled varying degrees of criticism at China, particularly

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over its economic practices, including industrial espionage.

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China railed against what it sees as American protectionism, most

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recently over solar energy products. Each country is the biggest market

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for each other's exports. They are bound together. Is the idea of any

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military conflict between the two superpowers unthinkable, if so,

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what will be the defining feature of their relationship for the next

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decade. I should warn you this piece

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:16:08.:16:23.

The lesson of history is weak empires give way to the strong.

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And America's current preoccupation with China has produced these

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political attack ad, as well as plenty of campaign rhetoric.

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They are artificially lowering prices and killing American jobs.

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We can't just sit back and let China run all over us.

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Last night, Barack Obama returned to the White House. Having promised

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to hold China to account for its trading practices, what's he going

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to do about it now? Those who have been inside the White House policy

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loop suggest it will be gentle diplomacy.

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There is a gap between political campaigning and governing. I think

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that some of the tough rhetoric that you heard in the campaign,

:17:08.:17:15.

will not translate into policy. I think Presidents do have an ability

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to use various tools to shape policy towards China and other

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countries. It is not just about trade. There

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are human rights and security concerns, and a worry flagged up by

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this Republican's campaign commercial. Your economy gets very

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weak. That China is buying up American debt, so it can be used as

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a source of pressure. US diplomats insist that they do

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still defend their national interests. Currency valuations have

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been a recurring theme during the campaign, and yet quietly. The

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United States has been effective in getting China to begin the process

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of balancing its currency versus the dollar in a fair manner. Are we

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where we want to be yet, no. Has there been progress on this front,

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:18:20.:18:36.

That was back in 1841. That's how long Americans have been

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complaining about their terms of trade with China. These days,

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though, the public is much more engaged with the issue, and gun

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both diplomacy being out of the question, the -- gun boat diplomacy

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being out of the question, the President has to take the case to

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international bodies, like the world trade worgs. Nixon defined

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the modern relationship with China, at a time when it was still a

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peasant economy. That may have changed, but the perception that

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the relationship is too important to fail remains. You had a

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Republican President open up that relationship, back in 197 2. You

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had a Democratic President essentially formallise that

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relationship. Every President, Democrat or Republican since, has

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continued to advance the relationship between the United

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States and China. New issues today, new challenges today. We have never

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gone backward, we have gone forward. So, what to expect, a careful

:19:37.:19:42.

handling of a delicate relationship, for sure, but don't be surprised if,

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by 2016, America is even more indebted to China, significant

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trade issues unresolved, and the political ads still running.

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We will discuss all that, because we are having our first interview

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since President Obama has been re- elected, Nobel Peace Prize winner

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and former Secretary of State, and national security adviser, Henry

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Kissenger joining us. I understand you have met Xi Jinping, and

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probably more than once, what did you make of him? I have met him

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several times. And what did you make of him. We have heard from

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somebody who knows him well in Beijing, that he's a man that wants

:20:31.:20:38.

to "steady as you go", to make sure there is a seamless transition?

:20:38.:20:48.
:20:48.:20:50.

impression was that he was thoughtful, perhaps more assertive

:20:50.:20:56.

personality than his immediate predecessor, Hu Jintao. Shaped by a

:20:56.:21:04.

different set of experiences in which his experience during the

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Cultural Revolution plays an important role. Very contrary to

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the fact that he is stepping into a position at a period of enormous

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transformation that lies ahead for China. And to some extent, for the

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:21:32.:21:35.

world. What do you think, domestically, is his biggest issue?

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His predecessor pointed out at the end of a ten-year period, that

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:21:50.:21:50.

corruption is a key issue, and an extension of the definition of

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democracy, which has a different content in the Chinese context. As

:21:56.:22:04.

in the American or British one. But, nevertheless, involves a broadening

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of debates in some manner. Now, both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney,

:22:11.:22:15.

had quite an aggressive stance towards China in the run up to the

:22:15.:22:20.

election. You might have heard our world affairs editor say that there

:22:20.:22:24.

is a feeling in China, that actually, Barack Obama might be

:22:24.:22:31.

able to be pushed around a little bit. What do you make of that?

:22:31.:22:41.

thought that, during the election, I called the arguments being made

:22:41.:22:45.

about China on both sides rather deplorable. They were geared

:22:45.:22:49.

entirely to the immediate, short- term American domestic politics,

:22:49.:22:54.

and were conducted in terms of immediate American situations,

:22:54.:23:01.

which were not always fully relevant to China. But I think that

:23:01.:23:10.

both Obama and Xi Jinping will now have to ask themselves how they

:23:10.:23:14.

expect the relationship between the two countries to evolve. Where they

:23:14.:23:21.

want to be at the end of say a five or ten-year period, and to what

:23:21.:23:27.

extent that relationship can be co- operative, and to what extent it

:23:27.:23:34.

will be adversarial. Both countries impinge on each other in

:23:34.:23:40.

significant ways. But both leaders and certainly the leaders I know on

:23:40.:23:47.

both sides, know that a military conflict between them would have an

:23:48.:23:52.

outcome comparable to World War I for Europe, in which there are no

:23:52.:24:00.

winners. So that is the fundamental challenge, that while each side

:24:00.:24:07.

under goes its domestic challenges, whether they can find the broader

:24:07.:24:14.

framework for their chino American relationship, and that can't be

:24:14.:24:18.

determined primarily in terms of the tactical disputes of the last

:24:18.:24:23.

few years. I was going to ask you, briefly, on

:24:23.:24:28.

what Hu Jintao said today? And the question is, can Obama be pushed

:24:28.:24:38.
:24:38.:24:38.

around easily? I think that is, I don't think that is, in the light

:24:38.:24:44.

of his conduct this year. It is not a prospect, it is not a theory on

:24:44.:24:54.
:24:54.:24:57.

which anybody should act. Hu Jintao talked today about managing local

:24:57.:25:00.

territorial battles. We have been talking in the film about the pivot

:25:00.:25:05.

and moving American capability into the area. Do you think China will

:25:05.:25:12.

push the luck, locally? -- its luck, locally? I support the military

:25:12.:25:19.

deployments of the Pivot. But I do not believe one should base the

:25:19.:25:24.

relationship between China and the United States primarily, or largely

:25:24.:25:31.

on the experience of the Cold War, of military confrontation. The

:25:32.:25:35.

historic experience of China has been threats from neighbouring

:25:35.:25:44.

countries. And so it is an understandable expression that Hu

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Jintao used to. But if the relationship were to degenerate

:25:49.:25:55.

into the management of local military situations, the future of

:25:55.:26:00.

the relationship would be very dire, and both sides, and I repeat, both

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sides, have an obligation to do their utmost to get the

:26:08.:26:13.

relationship on the basis of a dialogue, and a dialogue about the

:26:13.:26:20.

future, and not of the immediate issues that lead to these conflicts.

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Do stay with us, I'm going to bring other guests into the discussion

:26:24.:26:28.

now. To discuss this all further is the Chinese novelist and former

:26:28.:26:37.

business Professor Jan Weling. She now lives in London. Ian Bremmer is

:26:37.:26:44.

visiting the UK, but works in the United States, where he runs a

:26:44.:26:51.

global political research film. Daniel Bell is in Paris, who lives

:26:51.:27:01.
:27:01.:27:01.

and lectures in Shanghai. How would you characterise the domestic

:27:01.:27:05.

challenges that Xi Jinping will face, will they be ones of free a

:27:05.:27:08.

democracy, more moving 400 million people from the country to the

:27:08.:27:12.

cities inment next ten years, or practical problems? I think he's

:27:12.:27:16.

facing a huge range of problems. That includes moving people from --

:27:17.:27:23.

cities in the text ten years? I he is facing a huge range of problems.

:27:23.:27:29.

That includes moving people from the cities. It includes

:27:29.:27:32.

redistribution of wealth, a whole range of issues and also the

:27:32.:27:36.

Internet. In his speech there is a piece about heightening security,

:27:36.:27:40.

and safety, on the Internet. It is a Conservative message. The

:27:41.:27:50.

positions of Jiang Zemin in the committee, did that surprise you?

:27:50.:27:53.

It did, and taken together with the tone of the speech, which is rather

:27:53.:27:57.

conservative, I wonder if it is an indication of the composition of

:27:57.:28:01.

the coming standing committee, which as we know will be the seven

:28:01.:28:05.

most important members, they will run the country. Ian Bremmer,

:28:05.:28:10.

what's your analysis of the make-up of the seven? I think we are

:28:10.:28:16.

talking about a very consensus- orientated, risk-averse group. They

:28:16.:28:21.

feel like the challenges domestically are growing, they know

:28:21.:28:26.

the challenges internationally are growing. They feel a greater

:28:26.:28:28.

adversarial relationship with the United States. Do you mean economic

:28:28.:28:33.

terms, or even in geopolitical terms and military terms? I would

:28:33.:28:39.

argue that the geopolitics are increasingly driven by economics. I

:28:39.:28:45.

agree with Dr Kissenger that nobody wants a war, but they are at war on

:28:45.:28:48.

the cyberfront every single day. That will get wore, there have been

:28:49.:28:52.

blocks of telecoms companies working in America? That will get

:28:52.:28:56.

worse. When you think about how China is an adversary to America

:28:56.:29:01.

and the threat, it is not on the military side. Where America

:29:01.:29:05.

outspends the next ten economies in the world together on the military.

:29:05.:29:08.

China will be the largest economy in the world. And American

:29:08.:29:11.

companies increasingly think they don't have access, they are losing

:29:11.:29:18.

out to state-owned enterprises. Daniel Bell, from your position in

:29:18.:29:22.

Paris, do you think America and the west needs to exercise a little bit

:29:22.:29:26.

of humility when it comes to China. We heard a lot of saber-rattling

:29:26.:29:29.

during the presidential campaign, do you think there needs to be a

:29:29.:29:32.

recalibration of even the atmosphere between the two?

:29:32.:29:37.

would help if the US and other western countries recognised that

:29:37.:29:44.

there is an alternative model. We can call it the China model. Which

:29:44.:29:48.

is meritocracy at the top, democracy at the bottom, and lots

:29:48.:29:52.

of ways of looking at it inbetween. China is not that corrupt when you

:29:52.:29:55.

compare it to countries at a similar level of economic

:29:55.:30:01.

development. But why is it a big issue? Because the political

:30:01.:30:06.

leaders derive legitimately from being seen as meritocratically

:30:06.:30:10.

selected, they have merit and virtue, and if they are seen to

:30:10.:30:14.

have virtue, that goes to the core of the regime, that is why they

:30:14.:30:19.

have to tackle corruption in a way that countries like India doesn't

:30:19.:30:23.

have to. Isn't one of the major problems in China is the elite, as

:30:23.:30:27.

you say, has merit, they have ten years to do their best for the

:30:27.:30:31.

country. But the problem is, the lower ranks of the official, the

:30:31.:30:35.

corruption that run all the way down the food chain that makes

:30:35.:30:41.

people so furious? That's true, but the lower level officials also

:30:41.:30:44.

derive legitimacy from being democratically chosen in local

:30:44.:30:50.

level elections. The top-level leaders derive much, if not all

:30:50.:30:53.

their legitimacy as being meritocratically selected, it is a

:30:53.:30:56.

more serious problem if the top leaders are seen as corrupt rather

:30:56.:31:02.

than the lower leaders as corrupt. We heard that Hu Jintao had ten

:31:02.:31:06.

years to sort it out and didn't. Is the frustration of the people going

:31:06.:31:11.

to become even greater now? Absolutely. And I think, this is

:31:11.:31:17.

what we are talking about, a system which theself produce the kind of

:31:17.:31:21.

corruption, and the elite, as we know, and they control a lot of

:31:21.:31:25.

wealth. Because for a long time you could not do any business, without

:31:25.:31:29.

having a member of the elite to be on your board, et cetera. And this

:31:29.:31:34.

has become a major issue as we see in the Internet, in the

:31:34.:31:39.

demonstrations. Dr Kissenger, do you think this might be the new

:31:39.:31:43.

regime's Achilles heel, that this clamour for corruption and social

:31:43.:31:48.

change, not necessarily western- style democracy, but social change

:31:48.:31:57.

will really eat in to the power and authority of this decade's regime?

:31:57.:32:02.

May I say two things. I don't think it is correct to talk about Xi

:32:02.:32:10.

Jinping as if he has absolute control. Decisions are made by a

:32:10.:32:17.

kind of consensus of the standing committee of the politic bureau,

:32:17.:32:24.

the number is either seven or nine. So it's in the personal freedom of

:32:24.:32:29.

manoeuvre, of which he is chairman and the most influential member.

:32:29.:32:38.

But his personal freedom is not the same as that of Mao or others.

:32:38.:32:45.

I do believe the -- Yes I do believe the issue of corruption has

:32:45.:32:52.

been also stated by the Chinese as the, in many ways, the deepest

:32:52.:33:00.

challenge of the regime. But, then, that will involve such a wide range

:33:00.:33:06.

of personalities, that the management of the improvement of it,

:33:06.:33:12.

will require enormous kill. This is why I don't believe that foreign

:33:12.:33:17.

adventures will be the dominant theme or a conceivable theme of

:33:17.:33:21.

Chinese foreign policy. Do you agree with that, Ian Bremmer?

:33:21.:33:24.

don't think they want foreign adventure, you about I do think the

:33:24.:33:28.

necessity of continued Chinese growth means that their actual

:33:28.:33:33.

footprint on the ground in countries around the world, in

:33:33.:33:36.

Africa, Brazil, Africa, across south-east Asia, will be perceived

:33:36.:33:41.

as a challenge, as a threat, by many local actor. Furthermore, the

:33:41.:33:45.

most important US ally in the region is Japan. Japanese companies

:33:45.:33:52.

have made big bets on China, those CEOs all think they may have made

:33:52.:33:55.

mistake now. You have potential conflict in the east China sea

:33:55.:33:58.

between Japan and China. The Japanese aren't defending

:33:58.:34:02.

themselves, the Americans are. If this gets worse, and the Chinese

:34:02.:34:05.

absolutely have been pushing that over the last couple of months, the

:34:05.:34:09.

United States are engaged in a conflict they would much rather

:34:09.:34:15.

steer clear of. How could they be engaged in a conflict when they are

:34:15.:34:19.

intimately linked checkically, there are people doing deals 365

:34:19.:34:23.

days a clear. Each is the other's greatest export market, and you

:34:23.:34:29.

have a stand off over Japan? you do. At the same time that the

:34:29.:34:34.

United States has its greatest external debt holder, China, you

:34:34.:34:38.

also have a cyberwar between the two countries. We are not friends

:34:38.:34:43.

any more. Obama called us adversaries in the third debate,

:34:43.:34:49.

but we are frenemies, you can have conflict at the same time as other

:34:49.:34:51.

things. That is what makes it dangerous.

:34:51.:34:55.

The Prime Minister warned against a witch-hunt against gay people when

:34:55.:35:00.

he was ambushed on daytime television with a list of alleged

:35:00.:35:06.

child abusers, kol located from the Internet. A Tory MP writes to Ofcom

:35:06.:35:10.

asking for an investigation into whether the programme had breached

:35:10.:35:14.

the code. In the interview David Cameron didn't rule out a

:35:14.:35:19.

megainquiry into child abuse scandals in the future, triggered

:35:19.:35:25.

against allegation against Jimmy Savile and the North West

:35:25.:35:29.

children's homes. Twitter a legitimate forum for allegations or

:35:29.:35:34.

is it, as David Cameron suggests, a witch-hunt. Appearing on daytime

:35:34.:35:38.

television, the Prime Minister was questioned about child sex abuse

:35:38.:35:43.

allegation, against so far unnamed senior figures in his party. And,

:35:43.:35:48.

confronted by the presenters' trawling of the internet. It is a

:35:48.:35:51.

momentary cursory glance at the internet, it took me about three

:35:51.:35:56.

minutes last night to continually find a list of the same names. I

:35:56.:36:00.

have those names there. Those are the names on a piecep paper, you

:36:00.:36:04.

know the names on that -- on a piece of paper, you know the names

:36:04.:36:08.

on that piece of paper, will you be speaking to those people. What is

:36:08.:36:12.

really important, there is a danger if we are not careful, that this

:36:12.:36:15.

could turn into a witch-hunt, particularly against people who are

:36:15.:36:18.

gay. And I'm worried about the sort of thing you are doing right now,

:36:18.:36:22.

giving me a list of name that you have taken off the Internet. As I

:36:22.:36:26.

say, if anyone has any information about anyone who is a paedophile,

:36:26.:36:29.

no matter how high up in British society they are, that is what the

:36:29.:36:33.

police are for. Broadcaster, including the BBC, have been

:36:33.:36:36.

blurring these shot, because some of the names could have been

:36:36.:36:43.

ledgable when this was first shown live.

:36:43.:36:47.

-- legible when this was first shown live. Some were confused by

:36:47.:36:52.

the Prime Minister's words, why say a witch-hunt gains gay people. It

:36:52.:36:56.

seems he was angry, that some politicians whose sexuality has

:36:56.:37:00.

been the subject of gossip for decades, were being linked without

:37:00.:37:04.

any evidence to serious criminal offences, child abuse. This all

:37:04.:37:09.

comes after an investigation on Newsnight last week. A man who said

:37:09.:37:12.

he had suffered abuse at this former children's home in North

:37:12.:37:17.

Wales, in the 1970, claimed that his abusers included a Conservative

:37:17.:37:22.

Party figure of the day. The alleged abuser's identity was

:37:22.:37:27.

not revealed on the programme. Since then, speculation has raged

:37:27.:37:32.

on on-line sites, where users seem untroubled by libel laws and other

:37:32.:37:37.

restrictions that apply to the mainstream media. Earlier this week,

:37:37.:37:42.

the Home Secretary announced an inquiry into abuse in North Wales

:37:42.:37:48.

children's homes. Last Friday, a victim of sexual abuse in one of

:37:48.:37:51.

the homes named in the report, Steve Messham, alleged that the

:37:51.:37:55.

inquiry didn't look at abuse outside the care homes renewed

:37:55.:37:57.

allegations against the police and several individual. The Government

:37:58.:38:02.

is treating these allegations with the utmost seriousness. Some

:38:02.:38:06.

observers question the value of this new inquiry. And suggested

:38:06.:38:10.

that ministers themselves had been caught up in an atmosphere of

:38:10.:38:14.

witch-hunt. I would ask that question, what is the point? But I

:38:14.:38:16.

feel there is some political impetuous behind this, I feel

:38:16.:38:19.

politicians feel they have to do something. I would simply question

:38:19.:38:23.

whether those resources are best put into another child protection

:38:24.:38:28.

issue, rather than something like this, which has, in fact, been

:38:28.:38:33.

investigated. Back in 2000, the now defunct News of the World, was

:38:33.:38:37.

criticised after it ran a campaign of naming and shaming alleged

:38:37.:38:43.

paedophile. There were marches, as here, and in Wales, the angry crowd

:38:43.:38:49.

attacked the home of a blameless paediatrician. Kuryosty over the

:38:49.:38:57.

identity of latest sex -- Newsnight began an investigation into the DJ,

:38:57.:39:02.

Jimmy Savile, last year, but did not complete it. Tonight Philip

:39:02.:39:07.

Schofield said he apologised if viewers were able to identify

:39:07.:39:17.
:39:17.:39:19.

anybody on the list he hand today Mr Cameron.

:39:19.:39:24.

The Prime Minister's spokesman was asked if Mr Cameron felt stitched

:39:24.:39:29.

up by the programme. He replied bandying names around in public

:39:29.:39:34.

could have an effect on the future of any prosecutions, they said Mr

:39:34.:39:37.

Cameron didn't believe in trial by Twitter.

:39:37.:39:41.

While we have been on air the Guardian has published new details

:39:41.:39:45.

about the North Wales child abuse story. What has happened? As I was

:39:45.:39:50.

eluding to in the package, last Friday on the programme, a victim

:39:50.:39:55.

of the abuse, Steve Messham, said he had been repeatedly abused by a

:39:55.:40:01.

politician of the Thatcher era. Tonight, the Guardian is naming

:40:01.:40:05.

that person, not the political figure, they say, but somebody else.

:40:05.:40:09.

They say the attacks may have been carried out by another member of

:40:09.:40:15.

the same family, bearing the same surname. They have maimed that

:40:15.:40:21.

person. This family member has since died though. In 2000, the

:40:21.:40:27.

Watt Report, set up -- Waterhouse Report, set up to investigate the

:40:27.:40:31.

abuse claims, concluded that the evidence about that attacker was

:40:31.:40:38.

inconclusive. We have our guests with us.

:40:38.:40:48.
:40:48.:40:48.

First of all, do you think like David Cameron that this is in

:40:48.:40:55.

danger of turning into a witch-hunt, David Aaronovitch? It already is,

:40:55.:41:00.

we can't name people we already discover or not to be accused. One

:41:00.:41:03.

of the parts of the allegations against him, which I heard

:41:03.:41:10.

broadcast, was he was cottageing, back in the days when that was an

:41:10.:41:19.

illegal activity and so on. If David Cameron had that in his mind.

:41:19.:41:23.

What is going on now is not the interests of victims of child abuse,

:41:23.:41:28.

or getting at the truth. We have, in the old kind of phrase, we

:41:28.:41:31.

jumped the shark here. We what we saw from Philip Schofield earlier

:41:31.:41:34.

was probably one of the most disgraceful things I have seen on

:41:34.:41:39.

television. I can't think what the justification for doing something

:41:39.:41:44.

like that would be. Pete Saunders, there is legitimate inquiries over

:41:44.:41:48.

child abuse claims going back many years, we know some are outstanding

:41:48.:41:52.

and some have never been resolved? Absolutely, I do agree with David

:41:53.:41:58.

that the antics of that programme This Morning, presenting something

:41:58.:42:02.

to David Cameron in the way they did, was extremely unhelpful in

:42:02.:42:07.

terms of the wider issue. Which is that, according to the NSPCC, and I

:42:07.:42:10.

don't doubt their figure, one in four children in this country is

:42:11.:42:15.

abused every year. We are talking about an epidemic. Do you agree

:42:15.:42:20.

with David Cameron, that it is, and can be characterised as a witch-

:42:20.:42:23.

hunt, particularly against gay politicians? I wouldn't agree with

:42:23.:42:28.

him. Because I think once you introduce the term "witch-hunt", it

:42:28.:42:31.

then starts to detract from the issue. We are starting to get away

:42:31.:42:36.

from the issue, which is about protecting children, and

:42:36.:42:38.

prosecuting abusers, when they can be apprehended. Anything that gets

:42:38.:42:43.

in the way of that, is very unhelpful. We hear from thousand of

:42:43.:42:46.

abuse survivors every week, not connected with politicians or

:42:46.:42:50.

celebrities and so on. But it is mostly family stuff. Do you think

:42:50.:42:55.

it might put off some children from coming forward, even the word

:42:55.:42:59.

"witch-hunt", I don't think it probably will. I think it is

:42:59.:43:03.

unhelpful language. Mark Lewis, a lot of the stuff is

:43:03.:43:09.

coming out on Twitter. Twitter is unregulated. What do you make of

:43:09.:43:15.

allegations that, of course, unsubstantiated on Twitter, being

:43:15.:43:21.

given credence? We have a problem with the Internet, not just with

:43:21.:43:26.

Twitter, it is publication taking part out of the jurisdiction.

:43:26.:43:31.

Lawyers find it hard to stop what might be being said. Abroad we have

:43:32.:43:35.

no global recognition of how to stop these things. It is dangerous,

:43:35.:43:40.

it is very rare, I suppose, for all panellists to agree there is the

:43:40.:43:44.

same problem. It is neither helpful for the children, or the people

:43:45.:43:48.

wrongly accused. You have Facebook, Twitter and blogs, it seems the law

:43:48.:43:52.

is running so far behind to catch up? I think we have to be careful

:43:52.:43:55.

here. Think the one way in which the Government has made a rod for

:43:55.:44:00.

the own back, was when it saw the allegations coming, and when it saw

:44:00.:44:05.

what happened to the BBC over Jimmy Savile, they thought they would

:44:05.:44:09.

throw an inquiry at it. There isn't any evidence, that I have seen, and

:44:09.:44:13.

that includes the item that you showed last week, that actually

:44:13.:44:19.

Waterhouse needs a reinquiry. Where as, this is point that Pete is

:44:19.:44:22.

making, every day we know there is a significant amount of abuse going

:44:23.:44:27.

on that we need to devote some time to. There are things like the

:44:27.:44:30.

Savile situations that haven't been inquired into. The one place we

:44:30.:44:34.

don't need an inquiry into is North Wales. On the question of Twitter,

:44:34.:44:38.

how do you police twittwit, how do you make sure people aren't --

:44:38.:44:42.

Twitter, how do you make sure people aren't being wrongful low

:44:42.:44:46.

accused on Twitter, that finds a legitimacy that is illegitimate?

:44:47.:44:51.

know that people who named a rape victim were actually fined as a

:44:51.:44:57.

result of mentioning it, �600. It is possible, in limited

:44:57.:45:00.

circumstances, by and large we have to accept that we are not going to.

:45:00.:45:05.

What we have to say to people is don't trust what you read on

:45:05.:45:13.

Twitter, it is just gossip. Forget about it. Do kids know about this,

:45:13.:45:18.

let's be Hon he, how hard is that to get across? Kids are smarter

:45:18.:45:24.

than we are giving, or not giving them credit for. I'm talking about

:45:24.:45:28.

under-12s? Sure, but I do think there is a silver lining to this

:45:28.:45:32.

whole discussion, and to these revelation, as dreadful as they are.

:45:32.:45:36.

That is that I genuinely think our children will be safer in the

:45:36.:45:40.

future, because, at long last, the public consciousness is beginning

:45:40.:45:45.

to get a grip as to what child abuse is really all about, the true

:45:45.:45:48.

extent of it, and the fact that survivors need to be listened to,

:45:48.:45:53.

and we need to take action against abusers when they are apprehended.

:45:53.:45:57.

Legally what can we do? Do you think the Twitter, do you think the

:45:57.:46:01.

Twitter problem is unpolicable? There are two issues here. There is

:46:01.:46:06.

a child abuse issue, which is separate from the issue of Twitter,

:46:07.:46:15.

more about social media, which is proving to be uncontrollable. Lord

:46:15.:46:21.

lef -- Leveson says time and time again, what about the social media,

:46:21.:46:26.

it is not just the printed media a problem, but the Internet. While

:46:26.:46:30.

you say this is just gossip and warnings can be given. It is gossip

:46:30.:46:35.

that can magnify so many times over that people all hear. It gains

:46:35.:46:39.

credit because of that. The danger is, and I don't want to be hyping

:46:39.:46:44.

this up, but the danger is, if somebody is repeatedly named, they

:46:44.:46:50.

could come under attack? Can I say one thing, a lot of this hasn't

:46:50.:46:54.

been fed by Twitter, but people talking about it in the House of

:46:54.:46:58.

Commons. There have been accusations of rape in Whitehall by

:46:58.:47:02.

an MP. He has said there is a former cabinet minister, he says it

:47:02.:47:06.

reaches up to Number Ten, talked about a network of powerful

:47:06.:47:09.

paedophile, stuck it out. There it is hardly surprising. I have no

:47:09.:47:14.

idea what his evidence is. Looking at his blog I'm extremely worried

:47:14.:47:16.

about the basis on which this discussion is happening. People

:47:17.:47:21.

have to be more responsible. That starts at the top, not the bottom.

:47:21.:47:26.

I think it would also be, unwise, to not accept that abuse does exist

:47:27.:47:31.

in every strata of society. Whether the top or the bottom and

:47:31.:47:35.

everywhere inbetween. Let's not dismiss things too much out of hand,

:47:35.:47:39.

sometimes there is smoke where there is fire. Thank you all very

:47:39.:47:44.

much indeed. That's all we have time for tonight. Join us the same

:47:44.:47:54.
:47:54.:47:55.

time tomorrow night. Hello there, band of rain in

:47:55.:48:01.

Northern Ireland and Scotland, that will push southwards. Towards the

:48:01.:48:04.

south-east generally fine and cloudy. After the rain sunshine and

:48:04.:48:07.

showers for Scotland and Northern Ireland. The wettest weather

:48:07.:48:11.

probably going to be during the day in the North West of England. Not

:48:11.:48:15.

rain in the Pennine, sheltered. Through the south-east of England.

:48:15.:48:19.

Not great deal of sunshine. Not much rain either. A few drizzley

:48:19.:48:24.

showers possible, quite a lot of cloud. The I'm A Rainbowband

:48:24.:48:31.

arrives in the south west quite late in the day -- the rainband

:48:31.:48:36.

arrives in south-west Wales quite late in the day. Not a bad-looking

:48:36.:48:40.

day for Northern Ireland, after the overnight rain, sunshine, not many

:48:40.:48:44.

showers, a cooler feel across the country. Certainly feeling colder

:48:44.:48:48.

in Scotland. We will see most of the showers in the North West. Some

:48:48.:48:53.

heavy with rain and thunder. Snow over the Scottish mountains,

:48:53.:49:00.

generally fine and dry in Edinburgh, cold on Saturday. Looking elsewhere,

:49:00.:49:03.

we have the rain in Cardiff, arriving late in the day in

:49:03.:49:07.

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