Browse content similar to 08/11/2012. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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This is a momentous week, first, the US election, now a power play | :00:12. | :00:17. | |
that's at least as important. The confirmation that the Chinese elite | :00:17. | :00:22. | |
will steer the country through the next decade. We assess the extent | :00:22. | :00:26. | |
and limits of the change in the next ten years. China will evolve | :00:26. | :00:34. | |
its own type of democracy, whether the west accepts it or not. America | :00:34. | :00:38. | |
and China are tied together in a tight economic embrace, they are | :00:38. | :00:41. | |
the two mightiest nations in the world, will one squeeze the breath | :00:41. | :00:44. | |
out of the other. Now the campaign is over, the | :00:44. | :00:48. | |
President has to return to the practical realities of dealing with | :00:48. | :00:55. | |
China. We speak to Henry kin injure, the | :00:55. | :00:59. | |
architect of Chinese relations, in his first interview since President | :00:59. | :01:09. | |
:01:09. | :01:12. | ||
Obama was elected. We will discuss China's future path with our guests. | :01:12. | :01:15. | |
The Prime Minister issues this warning about trial by Twitter. | :01:15. | :01:17. | |
This is really important, right, because there is a danger, if we're | :01:18. | :01:25. | |
not careful, that this could turn into a sort of "witch-hunt" | :01:25. | :01:29. | |
particularly against people who are gay. Are some politicians being | :01:29. | :01:39. | |
:01:39. | :01:45. | ||
unfairly hounded by social media. The leadership of the world's | :01:45. | :01:48. | |
second-largest economy is being replaced according to plan. But the | :01:48. | :01:53. | |
in coming President and his gang of six will come under increasing | :01:53. | :01:59. | |
internal and external pressure. As Hu Jintao hands It's All Over Now | :01:59. | :02:03. | |
to Xi Jinping, the claum mour over the country for the elite is even | :02:03. | :02:08. | |
louder. The need to do move millions from | :02:08. | :02:13. | |
the country to city more intense, anger at the surveillance state | :02:13. | :02:23. | |
:02:23. | :02:24. | ||
louder. Hu Jintao said there will be no western-style democracy, will | :02:24. | :02:31. | |
you how long will this fuel protest d -- how long will this fuel more | :02:32. | :02:40. | |
ports protests. There is theatre, spectacle, but no | :02:40. | :02:50. | |
:02:50. | :02:52. | ||
drama. Improvisation is not encouraged, nor, indeed, expression. | :02:52. | :03:01. | |
Nor, indeed, voting against. The script at the party Congress is | :03:01. | :03:09. | |
simple. The handover of leadership from one generation to the next. | :03:09. | :03:17. | |
The outgoing man, Hu Jintao, leaving them with a stark warning. | :03:17. | :03:20. | |
TRANSLATION: Combatting corruption, and promoting politic kalg | :03:20. | :03:26. | |
integrity is a clear-cut and -- political integrity, a clear-cut | :03:26. | :03:29. | |
and long-term commitment of the party. If we fail to handle this | :03:29. | :03:32. | |
issue well, it could prove fatal to the party and even cause the | :03:32. | :03:37. | |
collapse of the party and the fall of the state. | :03:37. | :03:47. | |
:03:47. | :03:47. | ||
Recent events have shown, the order is fragile. This man, until | :03:47. | :03:51. | |
recently the third-most powerful man in China was disgraced, after | :03:51. | :03:58. | |
his wife was convicted of murdering a businessman. What world needs now | :03:58. | :04:04. | |
is calm. One thing you can say about China is after the Cultural | :04:04. | :04:08. | |
Revolution their leader decided they needed consensus, and didn't | :04:08. | :04:15. | |
need radical departures in policy. One of the reasons that the former | :04:15. | :04:22. | |
chief was Petersburged, he wasn't that kind of leader, he had a lot | :04:22. | :04:26. | |
of different ideas. He threatened to upset the balance. Now there | :04:26. | :04:35. | |
will be a lot of continuity. Tygart square massacre in 1989 -- | :04:35. | :04:41. | |
Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 brought a split between the party. | :04:41. | :04:46. | |
The leadership vowed never to let the debate on political and | :04:46. | :04:52. | |
economic change splil outen to to the streets. In-- split outen to to | :04:52. | :04:56. | |
the streets -- spill out on to the streets. | :04:56. | :05:04. | |
The committee falls into two camp, one loyal to Jiang Zemin, and the | :05:04. | :05:09. | |
other for Hu Jintao. They built in the coastal provinces, | :05:09. | :05:12. | |
stand against democratic reform, and a more rapid move to the free | :05:12. | :05:17. | |
market. They are, in this sense, the most capital communists in | :05:17. | :05:22. | |
China. The group around Hu, came up within the party's youth league. | :05:22. | :05:28. | |
Their slogan, "promote social harmony", is code for delivering | :05:28. | :05:33. | |
better lifestyles to peasants and alleviating social conflict. The | :05:33. | :05:38. | |
new leader, Xi Jinping, comes from the Jiang faction. Who is he? | :05:38. | :05:42. | |
experienced a lot of hardship, he went to the countryside at the age | :05:42. | :05:47. | |
of 15, he spent seven years in the backwater regions in China, and | :05:47. | :05:54. | |
started working at every level of the Chinese Government. Until now. | :05:54. | :06:00. | |
This is a Shanghai academic, whose best-selling book is said to have | :06:00. | :06:03. | |
influenced the new leader. This is a personality, and this is very | :06:03. | :06:11. | |
important. Often he can speak his mind openly. He has his own style. | :06:11. | :06:19. | |
What will he do differently, to Hu Jintao? I think he said many times, | :06:19. | :06:29. | |
:06:29. | :06:30. | ||
whenever he takes up a new position. He wants to see what his | :06:30. | :06:36. | |
predecessor has done, he wants to maintain some continuity. But the | :06:36. | :06:43. | |
party can't afford just continuity. Outside the Great Hall of the | :06:43. | :06:48. | |
People, this brief and stifled protest, just a small echo of the | :06:48. | :06:51. | |
problems China faces, the middle- class wants a bigger slice of the | :06:51. | :06:56. | |
pie. The Internet is awash with grievance. The environment under | :06:56. | :07:00. | |
severe strain. Xi Jinping, with strong links to the military, could | :07:00. | :07:04. | |
be the man to advance where his predecessor could not go, towards | :07:04. | :07:08. | |
more democracy within the party, and more political freedom. But | :07:08. | :07:12. | |
will he? Understanding what they are trying to say at this Congress | :07:12. | :07:19. | |
is not easy. Take this, the political bureau has | :07:19. | :07:24. | |
comprehensively pushed forward the social, economic, political, social | :07:24. | :07:28. | |
and conservation culture construction. With various causes | :07:28. | :07:32. | |
achieving remarkable results. It is impervious to logic, how would you | :07:32. | :07:36. | |
argue it wasn't remarkable or comprehensive, and what causes. But | :07:36. | :07:41. | |
the sub-text to all this is clear, the Chinese leadership has seen the | :07:41. | :07:46. | |
Arab Spring and is terrified of a Chinese spring. | :07:46. | :07:54. | |
The Chinese now talk about how to prevent a revolution. People | :07:54. | :07:58. | |
compare the French Revolution many, many years ago, saying that you | :07:58. | :08:06. | |
need to sometimes start to change, that will start political reform, | :08:06. | :08:12. | |
this is the most dangerous period for revolution. Some conservatives | :08:12. | :08:17. | |
also like this argument. Facing strikes and disturbances, | :08:18. | :08:21. | |
always heavily repressed, the leadership, in September, provoked | :08:22. | :08:25. | |
the own disturbances. Picking a fight with Japan over disputed | :08:25. | :08:29. | |
islands. And allowing large street | :08:30. | :08:34. | |
demonstrations to close down Japanese factories. There is much | :08:34. | :08:39. | |
to the island's dispute that is, again, theatre, but it has left the | :08:39. | :08:43. | |
west and China's neighbours wondering where things go next. | :08:43. | :08:49. | |
Well, the outgoing leader dropped a heavy hint today. TRANSLATION: | :08:49. | :08:54. | |
should enhance the capability to accomplish a wide range of military | :08:54. | :08:59. | |
tasks, the most important of which is to have the ability to win local | :08:59. | :09:04. | |
wars in an information age. Last year President Obama authorised a | :09:04. | :09:08. | |
major redeployment by the US military to Asia. Known as The | :09:08. | :09:16. | |
Pivot, it involves moving 9,000 US Marines from Japan, to Guame, | :09:16. | :09:20. | |
Australia and a-ha I wouldia, together with strategic systems, | :09:20. | :09:25. | |
putting four ships into the vital lane of Singapore, moving a fifth | :09:25. | :09:29. | |
of ships into the Atlantic, including an aircraft carrier to | :09:29. | :09:32. | |
Austrailia. There is thought of moving some of the troops in | :09:32. | :09:37. | |
Afghanistan to the Philippines. American pivot was the most | :09:37. | :09:40. | |
important thing the Obama administration did. It was amazing | :09:40. | :09:44. | |
that in none of the debates was there any discussion about its | :09:44. | :09:48. | |
appropriateness, or what it's future should be. Since the | :09:48. | :09:53. | |
financial crisis of four years a the Chinese have been much more | :09:53. | :09:56. | |
assertive in foreign policy, particularly in these territorial | :09:56. | :10:00. | |
disputes in the South China Sea. They have been saying some pretty | :10:00. | :10:03. | |
outrageous things about, for example, the fact that none of the | :10:03. | :10:08. | |
states in that area can talk to each other about how to deal with | :10:08. | :10:11. | |
the rising China, they all have to simply deal with China bilaterally. | :10:11. | :10:17. | |
On the eve of the Congress, an influential party thee rice warned | :10:17. | :10:23. | |
that America's real -- therapist warned that America's real threat | :10:23. | :10:28. | |
was underground religious actives, dissidents, internet, and | :10:28. | :10:34. | |
vulnerable groups, with core constituent sits, with the aim of | :10:34. | :10:36. | |
infiltrating China's grassroots. There was outrage when this was | :10:36. | :10:40. | |
published, because of the overtones of moo era witch-hunts. Those close | :10:40. | :10:46. | |
to the leadership -- Mao era witch- hunt. Those close to the leadership | :10:46. | :10:51. | |
say there is no problem with that at all? China will develop its own | :10:51. | :10:56. | |
type of democracy, whether the west accepts it or not. I describe it as | :10:56. | :11:05. | |
selection, plus some kind of election. Over the past 2,200 years, | :11:05. | :11:11. | |
since China's unification in 221BC, China was run by a one-party | :11:11. | :11:17. | |
political structure. At the top level it is always a unified | :11:17. | :11:21. | |
confusion state, without this kind of structure the country | :11:21. | :11:29. | |
disintegrates. If you check with Chinese what is the greatest fear | :11:29. | :11:35. | |
in their life, they would agree that it is "chaos". And, right on | :11:35. | :11:44. | |
cue, the past master of dealing with chaos was brought out today. | :11:44. | :11:48. | |
Jiang Zemin himself, 86 years old, the grand symbol of ri presidential | :11:49. | :11:54. | |
was given centre stage. On -- repression was given centre stage. | :11:54. | :11:59. | |
On a day of heavy symbolism, it left many thinking Back to the | :11:59. | :12:07. | |
Future. My guest joins me now. We have heard there of the maintaining | :12:07. | :12:17. | |
:12:17. | :12:22. | ||
of continuity with the new premier. What do you think his rule will be | :12:22. | :12:27. | |
like? Let me say, I was struck tremenduously in the Great Hall of | :12:27. | :12:33. | |
the People, by the similarities of going to those big Congresss, that | :12:33. | :12:41. | |
the Soviet Communist Party used to hold, back in 1987, 18988, and 1989, | :12:41. | :12:45. | |
when it was trying to -- 1988, and 1989, when it was trying to work | :12:45. | :12:51. | |
out where it was going to go to. There is lots of major differences, | :12:51. | :12:55. | |
no Gorbachev figure here. Never the less, that sense of change just | :12:55. | :13:00. | |
kind of bubbling up all round, and yet nobody knowing how to harness | :13:00. | :13:06. | |
it, where it's going to take them, it was really very strong indeed. I | :13:06. | :13:11. | |
think, I mean this new leadership is nothing very much more than a | :13:11. | :13:15. | |
kind of extension of the previous one. Everybody knows it has to do | :13:15. | :13:21. | |
things, and it has to do things fairly radically. Everybody thinks | :13:21. | :13:25. | |
it's not really going to be up to the job of doing anything very | :13:25. | :13:30. | |
radical. It was pretty amazing, really, to listen to President Hu | :13:30. | :13:33. | |
going on about the urgent need to do something about corruption. This | :13:33. | :13:37. | |
is right at the end of ten years of his rule. Why didn't he do anything | :13:37. | :13:45. | |
about it. He has talked about it plenty of times before. It just had | :13:45. | :13:50. | |
the sense of a party system which is faced with huge problems, as | :13:50. | :13:55. | |
well as huge successes, and doesn't really know quite what to do, and | :13:55. | :13:59. | |
so just kind of goes on, walking along in the same direction, in the | :13:59. | :14:04. | |
hope that something will happen. that case, what do you think will | :14:04. | :14:09. | |
characterise China's relationship with a second term of an Obama | :14:09. | :14:19. | |
:14:19. | :14:19. | ||
administration? The attitude towards America's really | :14:19. | :14:22. | |
interesting here. I have watched it change over the years. The old | :14:23. | :14:28. | |
attitude used to be that of a kind of resentful, secondary power, | :14:28. | :14:33. | |
which felt that it was being held back, it was being unfairly | :14:33. | :14:39. | |
criticised, unfairly attacked, and so forth, by the United States. | :14:39. | :14:47. | |
That's changed now. After four years of Barack Obama, the Chinese | :14:47. | :14:52. | |
system doesn't really have any great fears about him. Well, I have | :14:52. | :14:57. | |
to say t it is not a very nice thing to say, really, in a way. But | :14:57. | :15:01. | |
one figure with very, very strong links to the top party people was | :15:01. | :15:09. | |
saying they think they can push him around, quite easily. So, the whole | :15:09. | :15:13. | |
approach has changed towards America. Frank low, it is in this - | :15:13. | :15:17. | |
- frankly, it is in this part of the world, in Asia, at the moment, | :15:17. | :15:20. | |
that the Chinese see their main area of operations. | :15:20. | :15:23. | |
We will be discussing that later, thank you very much indeed. | :15:23. | :15:29. | |
During the American election, both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama | :15:29. | :15:33. | |
levelled varying degrees of criticism at China, particularly | :15:33. | :15:36. | |
over its economic practices, including industrial espionage. | :15:36. | :15:41. | |
China railed against what it sees as American protectionism, most | :15:41. | :15:44. | |
recently over solar energy products. Each country is the biggest market | :15:44. | :15:49. | |
for each other's exports. They are bound together. Is the idea of any | :15:49. | :15:52. | |
military conflict between the two superpowers unthinkable, if so, | :15:52. | :15:56. | |
what will be the defining feature of their relationship for the next | :15:56. | :15:58. | |
decade. I should warn you this piece | :15:58. | :16:08. | |
:16:08. | :16:23. | ||
The lesson of history is weak empires give way to the strong. | :16:23. | :16:28. | |
And America's current preoccupation with China has produced these | :16:28. | :16:34. | |
political attack ad, as well as plenty of campaign rhetoric. | :16:34. | :16:37. | |
They are artificially lowering prices and killing American jobs. | :16:37. | :16:43. | |
We can't just sit back and let China run all over us. | :16:43. | :16:46. | |
Last night, Barack Obama returned to the White House. Having promised | :16:46. | :16:51. | |
to hold China to account for its trading practices, what's he going | :16:51. | :16:56. | |
to do about it now? Those who have been inside the White House policy | :16:56. | :16:59. | |
loop suggest it will be gentle diplomacy. | :17:00. | :17:05. | |
There is a gap between political campaigning and governing. I think | :17:05. | :17:08. | |
that some of the tough rhetoric that you heard in the campaign, | :17:08. | :17:15. | |
will not translate into policy. I think Presidents do have an ability | :17:15. | :17:21. | |
to use various tools to shape policy towards China and other | :17:21. | :17:27. | |
countries. It is not just about trade. There | :17:27. | :17:32. | |
are human rights and security concerns, and a worry flagged up by | :17:32. | :17:36. | |
this Republican's campaign commercial. Your economy gets very | :17:36. | :17:39. | |
weak. That China is buying up American debt, so it can be used as | :17:39. | :17:44. | |
a source of pressure. US diplomats insist that they do | :17:44. | :17:50. | |
still defend their national interests. Currency valuations have | :17:50. | :17:54. | |
been a recurring theme during the campaign, and yet quietly. The | :17:54. | :18:02. | |
United States has been effective in getting China to begin the process | :18:02. | :18:06. | |
of balancing its currency versus the dollar in a fair manner. Are we | :18:06. | :18:10. | |
where we want to be yet, no. Has there been progress on this front, | :18:10. | :18:20. | |
:18:20. | :18:36. | ||
That was back in 1841. That's how long Americans have been | :18:36. | :18:39. | |
complaining about their terms of trade with China. These days, | :18:39. | :18:45. | |
though, the public is much more engaged with the issue, and gun | :18:45. | :18:50. | |
both diplomacy being out of the question, the -- gun boat diplomacy | :18:50. | :18:53. | |
being out of the question, the President has to take the case to | :18:53. | :18:59. | |
international bodies, like the world trade worgs. Nixon defined | :18:59. | :19:04. | |
the modern relationship with China, at a time when it was still a | :19:04. | :19:07. | |
peasant economy. That may have changed, but the perception that | :19:07. | :19:10. | |
the relationship is too important to fail remains. You had a | :19:11. | :19:15. | |
Republican President open up that relationship, back in 197 2. You | :19:15. | :19:20. | |
had a Democratic President essentially formallise that | :19:20. | :19:25. | |
relationship. Every President, Democrat or Republican since, has | :19:25. | :19:27. | |
continued to advance the relationship between the United | :19:27. | :19:32. | |
States and China. New issues today, new challenges today. We have never | :19:32. | :19:37. | |
gone backward, we have gone forward. So, what to expect, a careful | :19:37. | :19:42. | |
handling of a delicate relationship, for sure, but don't be surprised if, | :19:42. | :19:48. | |
by 2016, America is even more indebted to China, significant | :19:48. | :19:56. | |
trade issues unresolved, and the political ads still running. | :19:56. | :20:02. | |
We will discuss all that, because we are having our first interview | :20:02. | :20:06. | |
since President Obama has been re- elected, Nobel Peace Prize winner | :20:06. | :20:13. | |
and former Secretary of State, and national security adviser, Henry | :20:13. | :20:18. | |
Kissenger joining us. I understand you have met Xi Jinping, and | :20:18. | :20:22. | |
probably more than once, what did you make of him? I have met him | :20:22. | :20:25. | |
several times. And what did you make of him. We have heard from | :20:25. | :20:31. | |
somebody who knows him well in Beijing, that he's a man that wants | :20:31. | :20:38. | |
to "steady as you go", to make sure there is a seamless transition? | :20:38. | :20:48. | |
:20:48. | :20:50. | ||
impression was that he was thoughtful, perhaps more assertive | :20:50. | :20:56. | |
personality than his immediate predecessor, Hu Jintao. Shaped by a | :20:56. | :21:04. | |
different set of experiences in which his experience during the | :21:04. | :21:10. | |
Cultural Revolution plays an important role. Very contrary to | :21:10. | :21:18. | |
the fact that he is stepping into a position at a period of enormous | :21:18. | :21:22. | |
transformation that lies ahead for China. And to some extent, for the | :21:22. | :21:32. | |
:21:32. | :21:35. | ||
world. What do you think, domestically, is his biggest issue? | :21:35. | :21:40. | |
His predecessor pointed out at the end of a ten-year period, that | :21:40. | :21:50. | |
:21:50. | :21:50. | ||
corruption is a key issue, and an extension of the definition of | :21:51. | :21:56. | |
democracy, which has a different content in the Chinese context. As | :21:56. | :22:04. | |
in the American or British one. But, nevertheless, involves a broadening | :22:04. | :22:11. | |
of debates in some manner. Now, both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, | :22:11. | :22:15. | |
had quite an aggressive stance towards China in the run up to the | :22:15. | :22:20. | |
election. You might have heard our world affairs editor say that there | :22:20. | :22:24. | |
is a feeling in China, that actually, Barack Obama might be | :22:24. | :22:31. | |
able to be pushed around a little bit. What do you make of that? | :22:31. | :22:41. | |
thought that, during the election, I called the arguments being made | :22:41. | :22:45. | |
about China on both sides rather deplorable. They were geared | :22:45. | :22:49. | |
entirely to the immediate, short- term American domestic politics, | :22:49. | :22:54. | |
and were conducted in terms of immediate American situations, | :22:54. | :23:01. | |
which were not always fully relevant to China. But I think that | :23:01. | :23:10. | |
both Obama and Xi Jinping will now have to ask themselves how they | :23:10. | :23:14. | |
expect the relationship between the two countries to evolve. Where they | :23:14. | :23:21. | |
want to be at the end of say a five or ten-year period, and to what | :23:21. | :23:27. | |
extent that relationship can be co- operative, and to what extent it | :23:27. | :23:34. | |
will be adversarial. Both countries impinge on each other in | :23:34. | :23:40. | |
significant ways. But both leaders and certainly the leaders I know on | :23:40. | :23:47. | |
both sides, know that a military conflict between them would have an | :23:48. | :23:52. | |
outcome comparable to World War I for Europe, in which there are no | :23:52. | :24:00. | |
winners. So that is the fundamental challenge, that while each side | :24:00. | :24:07. | |
under goes its domestic challenges, whether they can find the broader | :24:07. | :24:14. | |
framework for their chino American relationship, and that can't be | :24:14. | :24:18. | |
determined primarily in terms of the tactical disputes of the last | :24:18. | :24:23. | |
few years. I was going to ask you, briefly, on | :24:23. | :24:28. | |
what Hu Jintao said today? And the question is, can Obama be pushed | :24:28. | :24:38. | |
:24:38. | :24:38. | ||
around easily? I think that is, I don't think that is, in the light | :24:38. | :24:44. | |
of his conduct this year. It is not a prospect, it is not a theory on | :24:44. | :24:54. | |
:24:54. | :24:57. | ||
which anybody should act. Hu Jintao talked today about managing local | :24:57. | :25:00. | |
territorial battles. We have been talking in the film about the pivot | :25:00. | :25:05. | |
and moving American capability into the area. Do you think China will | :25:05. | :25:12. | |
push the luck, locally? -- its luck, locally? I support the military | :25:12. | :25:19. | |
deployments of the Pivot. But I do not believe one should base the | :25:19. | :25:24. | |
relationship between China and the United States primarily, or largely | :25:24. | :25:31. | |
on the experience of the Cold War, of military confrontation. The | :25:32. | :25:35. | |
historic experience of China has been threats from neighbouring | :25:35. | :25:44. | |
countries. And so it is an understandable expression that Hu | :25:44. | :25:49. | |
Jintao used to. But if the relationship were to degenerate | :25:49. | :25:55. | |
into the management of local military situations, the future of | :25:55. | :26:00. | |
the relationship would be very dire, and both sides, and I repeat, both | :26:00. | :26:08. | |
sides, have an obligation to do their utmost to get the | :26:08. | :26:13. | |
relationship on the basis of a dialogue, and a dialogue about the | :26:13. | :26:20. | |
future, and not of the immediate issues that lead to these conflicts. | :26:20. | :26:24. | |
Do stay with us, I'm going to bring other guests into the discussion | :26:24. | :26:28. | |
now. To discuss this all further is the Chinese novelist and former | :26:28. | :26:37. | |
business Professor Jan Weling. She now lives in London. Ian Bremmer is | :26:37. | :26:44. | |
visiting the UK, but works in the United States, where he runs a | :26:44. | :26:51. | |
global political research film. Daniel Bell is in Paris, who lives | :26:51. | :27:01. | |
:27:01. | :27:01. | ||
and lectures in Shanghai. How would you characterise the domestic | :27:01. | :27:05. | |
challenges that Xi Jinping will face, will they be ones of free a | :27:05. | :27:08. | |
democracy, more moving 400 million people from the country to the | :27:08. | :27:12. | |
cities inment next ten years, or practical problems? I think he's | :27:12. | :27:16. | |
facing a huge range of problems. That includes moving people from -- | :27:17. | :27:23. | |
cities in the text ten years? I he is facing a huge range of problems. | :27:23. | :27:29. | |
That includes moving people from the cities. It includes | :27:29. | :27:32. | |
redistribution of wealth, a whole range of issues and also the | :27:32. | :27:36. | |
Internet. In his speech there is a piece about heightening security, | :27:36. | :27:40. | |
and safety, on the Internet. It is a Conservative message. The | :27:41. | :27:50. | |
positions of Jiang Zemin in the committee, did that surprise you? | :27:50. | :27:53. | |
It did, and taken together with the tone of the speech, which is rather | :27:53. | :27:57. | |
conservative, I wonder if it is an indication of the composition of | :27:57. | :28:01. | |
the coming standing committee, which as we know will be the seven | :28:01. | :28:05. | |
most important members, they will run the country. Ian Bremmer, | :28:05. | :28:10. | |
what's your analysis of the make-up of the seven? I think we are | :28:10. | :28:16. | |
talking about a very consensus- orientated, risk-averse group. They | :28:16. | :28:21. | |
feel like the challenges domestically are growing, they know | :28:21. | :28:26. | |
the challenges internationally are growing. They feel a greater | :28:26. | :28:28. | |
adversarial relationship with the United States. Do you mean economic | :28:28. | :28:33. | |
terms, or even in geopolitical terms and military terms? I would | :28:33. | :28:39. | |
argue that the geopolitics are increasingly driven by economics. I | :28:39. | :28:45. | |
agree with Dr Kissenger that nobody wants a war, but they are at war on | :28:45. | :28:48. | |
the cyberfront every single day. That will get wore, there have been | :28:49. | :28:52. | |
blocks of telecoms companies working in America? That will get | :28:52. | :28:56. | |
worse. When you think about how China is an adversary to America | :28:56. | :29:01. | |
and the threat, it is not on the military side. Where America | :29:01. | :29:05. | |
outspends the next ten economies in the world together on the military. | :29:05. | :29:08. | |
China will be the largest economy in the world. And American | :29:08. | :29:11. | |
companies increasingly think they don't have access, they are losing | :29:11. | :29:18. | |
out to state-owned enterprises. Daniel Bell, from your position in | :29:18. | :29:22. | |
Paris, do you think America and the west needs to exercise a little bit | :29:22. | :29:26. | |
of humility when it comes to China. We heard a lot of saber-rattling | :29:26. | :29:29. | |
during the presidential campaign, do you think there needs to be a | :29:29. | :29:32. | |
recalibration of even the atmosphere between the two? | :29:32. | :29:37. | |
would help if the US and other western countries recognised that | :29:37. | :29:44. | |
there is an alternative model. We can call it the China model. Which | :29:44. | :29:48. | |
is meritocracy at the top, democracy at the bottom, and lots | :29:48. | :29:52. | |
of ways of looking at it inbetween. China is not that corrupt when you | :29:52. | :29:55. | |
compare it to countries at a similar level of economic | :29:55. | :30:01. | |
development. But why is it a big issue? Because the political | :30:01. | :30:06. | |
leaders derive legitimately from being seen as meritocratically | :30:06. | :30:10. | |
selected, they have merit and virtue, and if they are seen to | :30:10. | :30:14. | |
have virtue, that goes to the core of the regime, that is why they | :30:14. | :30:19. | |
have to tackle corruption in a way that countries like India doesn't | :30:19. | :30:23. | |
have to. Isn't one of the major problems in China is the elite, as | :30:23. | :30:27. | |
you say, has merit, they have ten years to do their best for the | :30:27. | :30:31. | |
country. But the problem is, the lower ranks of the official, the | :30:31. | :30:35. | |
corruption that run all the way down the food chain that makes | :30:35. | :30:41. | |
people so furious? That's true, but the lower level officials also | :30:41. | :30:44. | |
derive legitimacy from being democratically chosen in local | :30:44. | :30:50. | |
level elections. The top-level leaders derive much, if not all | :30:50. | :30:53. | |
their legitimacy as being meritocratically selected, it is a | :30:53. | :30:56. | |
more serious problem if the top leaders are seen as corrupt rather | :30:56. | :31:02. | |
than the lower leaders as corrupt. We heard that Hu Jintao had ten | :31:02. | :31:06. | |
years to sort it out and didn't. Is the frustration of the people going | :31:06. | :31:11. | |
to become even greater now? Absolutely. And I think, this is | :31:11. | :31:17. | |
what we are talking about, a system which theself produce the kind of | :31:17. | :31:21. | |
corruption, and the elite, as we know, and they control a lot of | :31:21. | :31:25. | |
wealth. Because for a long time you could not do any business, without | :31:25. | :31:29. | |
having a member of the elite to be on your board, et cetera. And this | :31:29. | :31:34. | |
has become a major issue as we see in the Internet, in the | :31:34. | :31:39. | |
demonstrations. Dr Kissenger, do you think this might be the new | :31:39. | :31:43. | |
regime's Achilles heel, that this clamour for corruption and social | :31:43. | :31:48. | |
change, not necessarily western- style democracy, but social change | :31:48. | :31:57. | |
will really eat in to the power and authority of this decade's regime? | :31:57. | :32:02. | |
May I say two things. I don't think it is correct to talk about Xi | :32:02. | :32:10. | |
Jinping as if he has absolute control. Decisions are made by a | :32:10. | :32:17. | |
kind of consensus of the standing committee of the politic bureau, | :32:17. | :32:24. | |
the number is either seven or nine. So it's in the personal freedom of | :32:24. | :32:29. | |
manoeuvre, of which he is chairman and the most influential member. | :32:29. | :32:38. | |
But his personal freedom is not the same as that of Mao or others. | :32:38. | :32:45. | |
I do believe the -- Yes I do believe the issue of corruption has | :32:45. | :32:52. | |
been also stated by the Chinese as the, in many ways, the deepest | :32:52. | :33:00. | |
challenge of the regime. But, then, that will involve such a wide range | :33:00. | :33:06. | |
of personalities, that the management of the improvement of it, | :33:06. | :33:12. | |
will require enormous kill. This is why I don't believe that foreign | :33:12. | :33:17. | |
adventures will be the dominant theme or a conceivable theme of | :33:17. | :33:21. | |
Chinese foreign policy. Do you agree with that, Ian Bremmer? | :33:21. | :33:24. | |
don't think they want foreign adventure, you about I do think the | :33:24. | :33:28. | |
necessity of continued Chinese growth means that their actual | :33:28. | :33:33. | |
footprint on the ground in countries around the world, in | :33:33. | :33:36. | |
Africa, Brazil, Africa, across south-east Asia, will be perceived | :33:36. | :33:41. | |
as a challenge, as a threat, by many local actor. Furthermore, the | :33:41. | :33:45. | |
most important US ally in the region is Japan. Japanese companies | :33:45. | :33:52. | |
have made big bets on China, those CEOs all think they may have made | :33:52. | :33:55. | |
mistake now. You have potential conflict in the east China sea | :33:55. | :33:58. | |
between Japan and China. The Japanese aren't defending | :33:58. | :34:02. | |
themselves, the Americans are. If this gets worse, and the Chinese | :34:02. | :34:05. | |
absolutely have been pushing that over the last couple of months, the | :34:05. | :34:09. | |
United States are engaged in a conflict they would much rather | :34:09. | :34:15. | |
steer clear of. How could they be engaged in a conflict when they are | :34:15. | :34:19. | |
intimately linked checkically, there are people doing deals 365 | :34:19. | :34:23. | |
days a clear. Each is the other's greatest export market, and you | :34:23. | :34:29. | |
have a stand off over Japan? you do. At the same time that the | :34:29. | :34:34. | |
United States has its greatest external debt holder, China, you | :34:34. | :34:38. | |
also have a cyberwar between the two countries. We are not friends | :34:38. | :34:43. | |
any more. Obama called us adversaries in the third debate, | :34:43. | :34:49. | |
but we are frenemies, you can have conflict at the same time as other | :34:49. | :34:51. | |
things. That is what makes it dangerous. | :34:51. | :34:55. | |
The Prime Minister warned against a witch-hunt against gay people when | :34:55. | :35:00. | |
he was ambushed on daytime television with a list of alleged | :35:00. | :35:06. | |
child abusers, kol located from the Internet. A Tory MP writes to Ofcom | :35:06. | :35:10. | |
asking for an investigation into whether the programme had breached | :35:10. | :35:14. | |
the code. In the interview David Cameron didn't rule out a | :35:14. | :35:19. | |
megainquiry into child abuse scandals in the future, triggered | :35:19. | :35:25. | |
against allegation against Jimmy Savile and the North West | :35:25. | :35:29. | |
children's homes. Twitter a legitimate forum for allegations or | :35:29. | :35:34. | |
is it, as David Cameron suggests, a witch-hunt. Appearing on daytime | :35:34. | :35:38. | |
television, the Prime Minister was questioned about child sex abuse | :35:38. | :35:43. | |
allegation, against so far unnamed senior figures in his party. And, | :35:43. | :35:48. | |
confronted by the presenters' trawling of the internet. It is a | :35:48. | :35:51. | |
momentary cursory glance at the internet, it took me about three | :35:51. | :35:56. | |
minutes last night to continually find a list of the same names. I | :35:56. | :36:00. | |
have those names there. Those are the names on a piecep paper, you | :36:00. | :36:04. | |
know the names on that -- on a piece of paper, you know the names | :36:04. | :36:08. | |
on that piece of paper, will you be speaking to those people. What is | :36:08. | :36:12. | |
really important, there is a danger if we are not careful, that this | :36:12. | :36:15. | |
could turn into a witch-hunt, particularly against people who are | :36:15. | :36:18. | |
gay. And I'm worried about the sort of thing you are doing right now, | :36:18. | :36:22. | |
giving me a list of name that you have taken off the Internet. As I | :36:22. | :36:26. | |
say, if anyone has any information about anyone who is a paedophile, | :36:26. | :36:29. | |
no matter how high up in British society they are, that is what the | :36:29. | :36:33. | |
police are for. Broadcaster, including the BBC, have been | :36:33. | :36:36. | |
blurring these shot, because some of the names could have been | :36:36. | :36:43. | |
ledgable when this was first shown live. | :36:43. | :36:47. | |
-- legible when this was first shown live. Some were confused by | :36:47. | :36:52. | |
the Prime Minister's words, why say a witch-hunt gains gay people. It | :36:52. | :36:56. | |
seems he was angry, that some politicians whose sexuality has | :36:56. | :37:00. | |
been the subject of gossip for decades, were being linked without | :37:00. | :37:04. | |
any evidence to serious criminal offences, child abuse. This all | :37:04. | :37:09. | |
comes after an investigation on Newsnight last week. A man who said | :37:09. | :37:12. | |
he had suffered abuse at this former children's home in North | :37:12. | :37:17. | |
Wales, in the 1970, claimed that his abusers included a Conservative | :37:17. | :37:22. | |
Party figure of the day. The alleged abuser's identity was | :37:22. | :37:27. | |
not revealed on the programme. Since then, speculation has raged | :37:27. | :37:32. | |
on on-line sites, where users seem untroubled by libel laws and other | :37:32. | :37:37. | |
restrictions that apply to the mainstream media. Earlier this week, | :37:37. | :37:42. | |
the Home Secretary announced an inquiry into abuse in North Wales | :37:42. | :37:48. | |
children's homes. Last Friday, a victim of sexual abuse in one of | :37:48. | :37:51. | |
the homes named in the report, Steve Messham, alleged that the | :37:51. | :37:55. | |
inquiry didn't look at abuse outside the care homes renewed | :37:55. | :37:57. | |
allegations against the police and several individual. The Government | :37:58. | :38:02. | |
is treating these allegations with the utmost seriousness. Some | :38:02. | :38:06. | |
observers question the value of this new inquiry. And suggested | :38:06. | :38:10. | |
that ministers themselves had been caught up in an atmosphere of | :38:10. | :38:14. | |
witch-hunt. I would ask that question, what is the point? But I | :38:14. | :38:16. | |
feel there is some political impetuous behind this, I feel | :38:16. | :38:19. | |
politicians feel they have to do something. I would simply question | :38:19. | :38:23. | |
whether those resources are best put into another child protection | :38:24. | :38:28. | |
issue, rather than something like this, which has, in fact, been | :38:28. | :38:33. | |
investigated. Back in 2000, the now defunct News of the World, was | :38:33. | :38:37. | |
criticised after it ran a campaign of naming and shaming alleged | :38:37. | :38:43. | |
paedophile. There were marches, as here, and in Wales, the angry crowd | :38:43. | :38:49. | |
attacked the home of a blameless paediatrician. Kuryosty over the | :38:49. | :38:57. | |
identity of latest sex -- Newsnight began an investigation into the DJ, | :38:57. | :39:02. | |
Jimmy Savile, last year, but did not complete it. Tonight Philip | :39:02. | :39:07. | |
Schofield said he apologised if viewers were able to identify | :39:07. | :39:17. | |
:39:17. | :39:19. | ||
anybody on the list he hand today Mr Cameron. | :39:19. | :39:24. | |
The Prime Minister's spokesman was asked if Mr Cameron felt stitched | :39:24. | :39:29. | |
up by the programme. He replied bandying names around in public | :39:29. | :39:34. | |
could have an effect on the future of any prosecutions, they said Mr | :39:34. | :39:37. | |
Cameron didn't believe in trial by Twitter. | :39:37. | :39:41. | |
While we have been on air the Guardian has published new details | :39:41. | :39:45. | |
about the North Wales child abuse story. What has happened? As I was | :39:45. | :39:50. | |
eluding to in the package, last Friday on the programme, a victim | :39:50. | :39:55. | |
of the abuse, Steve Messham, said he had been repeatedly abused by a | :39:55. | :40:01. | |
politician of the Thatcher era. Tonight, the Guardian is naming | :40:01. | :40:05. | |
that person, not the political figure, they say, but somebody else. | :40:05. | :40:09. | |
They say the attacks may have been carried out by another member of | :40:09. | :40:15. | |
the same family, bearing the same surname. They have maimed that | :40:15. | :40:21. | |
person. This family member has since died though. In 2000, the | :40:21. | :40:27. | |
Watt Report, set up -- Waterhouse Report, set up to investigate the | :40:27. | :40:31. | |
abuse claims, concluded that the evidence about that attacker was | :40:31. | :40:38. | |
inconclusive. We have our guests with us. | :40:38. | :40:48. | |
:40:48. | :40:48. | ||
First of all, do you think like David Cameron that this is in | :40:48. | :40:55. | |
danger of turning into a witch-hunt, David Aaronovitch? It already is, | :40:55. | :41:00. | |
we can't name people we already discover or not to be accused. One | :41:00. | :41:03. | |
of the parts of the allegations against him, which I heard | :41:03. | :41:10. | |
broadcast, was he was cottageing, back in the days when that was an | :41:10. | :41:19. | |
illegal activity and so on. If David Cameron had that in his mind. | :41:19. | :41:23. | |
What is going on now is not the interests of victims of child abuse, | :41:23. | :41:28. | |
or getting at the truth. We have, in the old kind of phrase, we | :41:28. | :41:31. | |
jumped the shark here. We what we saw from Philip Schofield earlier | :41:31. | :41:34. | |
was probably one of the most disgraceful things I have seen on | :41:34. | :41:39. | |
television. I can't think what the justification for doing something | :41:39. | :41:44. | |
like that would be. Pete Saunders, there is legitimate inquiries over | :41:44. | :41:48. | |
child abuse claims going back many years, we know some are outstanding | :41:48. | :41:52. | |
and some have never been resolved? Absolutely, I do agree with David | :41:53. | :41:58. | |
that the antics of that programme This Morning, presenting something | :41:58. | :42:02. | |
to David Cameron in the way they did, was extremely unhelpful in | :42:02. | :42:07. | |
terms of the wider issue. Which is that, according to the NSPCC, and I | :42:07. | :42:10. | |
don't doubt their figure, one in four children in this country is | :42:11. | :42:15. | |
abused every year. We are talking about an epidemic. Do you agree | :42:15. | :42:20. | |
with David Cameron, that it is, and can be characterised as a witch- | :42:20. | :42:23. | |
hunt, particularly against gay politicians? I wouldn't agree with | :42:23. | :42:28. | |
him. Because I think once you introduce the term "witch-hunt", it | :42:28. | :42:31. | |
then starts to detract from the issue. We are starting to get away | :42:31. | :42:36. | |
from the issue, which is about protecting children, and | :42:36. | :42:38. | |
prosecuting abusers, when they can be apprehended. Anything that gets | :42:38. | :42:43. | |
in the way of that, is very unhelpful. We hear from thousand of | :42:43. | :42:46. | |
abuse survivors every week, not connected with politicians or | :42:46. | :42:50. | |
celebrities and so on. But it is mostly family stuff. Do you think | :42:50. | :42:55. | |
it might put off some children from coming forward, even the word | :42:55. | :42:59. | |
"witch-hunt", I don't think it probably will. I think it is | :42:59. | :43:03. | |
unhelpful language. Mark Lewis, a lot of the stuff is | :43:03. | :43:09. | |
coming out on Twitter. Twitter is unregulated. What do you make of | :43:09. | :43:15. | |
allegations that, of course, unsubstantiated on Twitter, being | :43:15. | :43:21. | |
given credence? We have a problem with the Internet, not just with | :43:21. | :43:26. | |
Twitter, it is publication taking part out of the jurisdiction. | :43:26. | :43:31. | |
Lawyers find it hard to stop what might be being said. Abroad we have | :43:32. | :43:35. | |
no global recognition of how to stop these things. It is dangerous, | :43:35. | :43:40. | |
it is very rare, I suppose, for all panellists to agree there is the | :43:40. | :43:44. | |
same problem. It is neither helpful for the children, or the people | :43:45. | :43:48. | |
wrongly accused. You have Facebook, Twitter and blogs, it seems the law | :43:48. | :43:52. | |
is running so far behind to catch up? I think we have to be careful | :43:52. | :43:55. | |
here. Think the one way in which the Government has made a rod for | :43:55. | :44:00. | |
the own back, was when it saw the allegations coming, and when it saw | :44:00. | :44:05. | |
what happened to the BBC over Jimmy Savile, they thought they would | :44:05. | :44:09. | |
throw an inquiry at it. There isn't any evidence, that I have seen, and | :44:09. | :44:13. | |
that includes the item that you showed last week, that actually | :44:13. | :44:19. | |
Waterhouse needs a reinquiry. Where as, this is point that Pete is | :44:19. | :44:22. | |
making, every day we know there is a significant amount of abuse going | :44:23. | :44:27. | |
on that we need to devote some time to. There are things like the | :44:27. | :44:30. | |
Savile situations that haven't been inquired into. The one place we | :44:30. | :44:34. | |
don't need an inquiry into is North Wales. On the question of Twitter, | :44:34. | :44:38. | |
how do you police twittwit, how do you make sure people aren't -- | :44:38. | :44:42. | |
Twitter, how do you make sure people aren't being wrongful low | :44:42. | :44:46. | |
accused on Twitter, that finds a legitimacy that is illegitimate? | :44:47. | :44:51. | |
know that people who named a rape victim were actually fined as a | :44:51. | :44:57. | |
result of mentioning it, �600. It is possible, in limited | :44:57. | :45:00. | |
circumstances, by and large we have to accept that we are not going to. | :45:00. | :45:05. | |
What we have to say to people is don't trust what you read on | :45:05. | :45:13. | |
Twitter, it is just gossip. Forget about it. Do kids know about this, | :45:13. | :45:18. | |
let's be Hon he, how hard is that to get across? Kids are smarter | :45:18. | :45:24. | |
than we are giving, or not giving them credit for. I'm talking about | :45:24. | :45:28. | |
under-12s? Sure, but I do think there is a silver lining to this | :45:28. | :45:32. | |
whole discussion, and to these revelation, as dreadful as they are. | :45:32. | :45:36. | |
That is that I genuinely think our children will be safer in the | :45:36. | :45:40. | |
future, because, at long last, the public consciousness is beginning | :45:40. | :45:45. | |
to get a grip as to what child abuse is really all about, the true | :45:45. | :45:48. | |
extent of it, and the fact that survivors need to be listened to, | :45:48. | :45:53. | |
and we need to take action against abusers when they are apprehended. | :45:53. | :45:57. | |
Legally what can we do? Do you think the Twitter, do you think the | :45:57. | :46:01. | |
Twitter problem is unpolicable? There are two issues here. There is | :46:01. | :46:06. | |
a child abuse issue, which is separate from the issue of Twitter, | :46:07. | :46:15. | |
more about social media, which is proving to be uncontrollable. Lord | :46:15. | :46:21. | |
lef -- Leveson says time and time again, what about the social media, | :46:21. | :46:26. | |
it is not just the printed media a problem, but the Internet. While | :46:26. | :46:30. | |
you say this is just gossip and warnings can be given. It is gossip | :46:30. | :46:35. | |
that can magnify so many times over that people all hear. It gains | :46:35. | :46:39. | |
credit because of that. The danger is, and I don't want to be hyping | :46:39. | :46:44. | |
this up, but the danger is, if somebody is repeatedly named, they | :46:44. | :46:50. | |
could come under attack? Can I say one thing, a lot of this hasn't | :46:50. | :46:54. | |
been fed by Twitter, but people talking about it in the House of | :46:54. | :46:58. | |
Commons. There have been accusations of rape in Whitehall by | :46:58. | :47:02. | |
an MP. He has said there is a former cabinet minister, he says it | :47:02. | :47:06. | |
reaches up to Number Ten, talked about a network of powerful | :47:06. | :47:09. | |
paedophile, stuck it out. There it is hardly surprising. I have no | :47:09. | :47:14. | |
idea what his evidence is. Looking at his blog I'm extremely worried | :47:14. | :47:16. | |
about the basis on which this discussion is happening. People | :47:17. | :47:21. | |
have to be more responsible. That starts at the top, not the bottom. | :47:21. | :47:26. | |
I think it would also be, unwise, to not accept that abuse does exist | :47:27. | :47:31. | |
in every strata of society. Whether the top or the bottom and | :47:31. | :47:35. | |
everywhere inbetween. Let's not dismiss things too much out of hand, | :47:35. | :47:39. | |
sometimes there is smoke where there is fire. Thank you all very | :47:39. | :47:44. | |
much indeed. That's all we have time for tonight. Join us the same | :47:44. | :47:54. | |
:47:54. | :47:55. | ||
time tomorrow night. Hello there, band of rain in | :47:55. | :48:01. | |
Northern Ireland and Scotland, that will push southwards. Towards the | :48:01. | :48:04. | |
south-east generally fine and cloudy. After the rain sunshine and | :48:04. | :48:07. | |
showers for Scotland and Northern Ireland. The wettest weather | :48:07. | :48:11. | |
probably going to be during the day in the North West of England. Not | :48:11. | :48:15. | |
rain in the Pennine, sheltered. Through the south-east of England. | :48:15. | :48:19. | |
Not great deal of sunshine. Not much rain either. A few drizzley | :48:19. | :48:24. | |
showers possible, quite a lot of cloud. The I'm A Rainbowband | :48:24. | :48:31. | |
arrives in the south west quite late in the day -- the rainband | :48:31. | :48:36. | |
arrives in south-west Wales quite late in the day. Not a bad-looking | :48:36. | :48:40. | |
day for Northern Ireland, after the overnight rain, sunshine, not many | :48:40. | :48:44. | |
showers, a cooler feel across the country. Certainly feeling colder | :48:44. | :48:48. | |
in Scotland. We will see most of the showers in the North West. Some | :48:48. | :48:53. | |
heavy with rain and thunder. Snow over the Scottish mountains, | :48:53. | :49:00. | |
generally fine and dry in Edinburgh, cold on Saturday. Looking elsewhere, | :49:00. | :49:03. | |
we have the rain in Cardiff, arriving late in the day in | :49:03. | :49:07. |