16/11/2012 Newsnight

Labour's first by-election gain from the Conservatives in 15 years.

Is it a straw in the wind? Labour's just won in Corby, and the Labour

leader, Ed Miliband, is about to turn up in this village, Middleton.

Middle town, Middle England, you can see what message they are

trying to ram home. Or was it down to one person? Louise Mensch

triggered the election when she fled Westminster for New York. We

will ask if she blames herself. Reports tonight that Israel will

call up 75,000 army reservists, is a ground war in Gaza inevitable.

Particularly as Jerusalem seems to be the latest target for Hamas. A

peace maker, who has been down this road before, gives his verdict. As

Police Commissioner fever hits England, we will look at the case

of the empty ballot box. We will speak to a woman who knows

how it works in Gotham. There were two recounts in the

Corby by-election today, but not cause the Labour victory was in any

doubt, the flurry of extra activity was caused by the Liberal Democrats,

who thought they were in with a chance of saving their deposit.

They weren't. They were a fourth, behind a resurgent UKIP, and a

Conservative candidate who was drafted in after the high-profile,

sitting Conservative, went to spend more time with her family. The

Labour candidate will be seeing a lot less of his. He won with a

swing of more than 12%. Allegra Stratton spent the day in the

constituency. A by-election is pretty standard

fare. In fact, maybe without you noticing it t around this country,

there have been at least half-a- dozen since this Government changed

hands. There are a couple more later this month. Ballots, licked,

posted and flicked, in Britain these bite-sized referendums have

been more frequent than hot weather. What on earth was all the fuss

about today? Or what on Mars? Let me introduce you to the Corby

crater, this isn't really it, we couldn't afford it, it will do. The

real Corby create certificate a great big hole on Mars. But the

departure of Louise Mensch for New York, leaves a Tory-shaped hole in

Corby. It threatens to scar David Cameron's tenure, it will be the

first his party has lost since joining Government. Here we are in

Corby at the scene of the destruction wrought by Louise

Mensch T looks like a huge hole have been driven through David

Cameron's leadership. It wasn't meant to be like this.

SuperThursday was supposed to see a Conservative and Liberal Democrat

uprise, voters were to flock to the polls to vote for the Prime

Minister's new idea, police chiefs. It appears they haven't, and the

by-election doesn't look good either. Is this a new low for David

Cameron. You lot are feeling it in Corby? I have a lot of friend out

of work. I'm out of work. I haven't worked in a long time. You know. I

have tried to get a job, you know, but it is so hard out there, you

know. One study described Corby as the

UK's hot spot for youth unemployment. People in Cameron

Court voted on this, on the possibility of a hospital service

closure, and on immigration. the people that came round about

the Conservatives and the other parties, didn't seem interested in

local issues. About the hospital, and what's going on, and what was

happening. To just generally, and I just thought, well, this time I'm

voting, I know who I'm going to vote for, the people that were

anxious to talk to me and listen to me. Hilda told me about her fears

of immigration, her son had had managed a team of foreign workers

before losing his work while they stayed on. Ed Miliband devoteds of

his conference speech to curbing the once uncurbable, EU immigration.

You clearly like the local candidate, what about the national

candidate, Ed Miliband? Well, some things are good, I don't understand

him sometimes. What don't you understand? Well, he seems a bit,

which he was, when he came here, he didn't even come into the town, he

went to one of the of the villages. Moments later, Labour would be

declared the winner. And I do here by declare that Andrew Sawford is

duly elected as member of parliament. The first victory for

the newly-coined One Nation Labour Party. Labour's just won in Corby,

that is why Ed Miliband is just turning up in this village,

Middleton, middle town, Middle England, you can see what message

they are trying to ram home here. Cheers here in Middleton, but

elsewhere in the country, Labour had had failed to win the mayoral

election in Bristol. Last month the Tory peer, Lord Ashcroft, had

published polling showing that, while many Tories were switching to

Labour in Corby, not as many could see Milliband as Prime Minister.

Remember from earlier, our interviewee Hilda, who lived in

Cameron Court. REPORTER: Can we ask you a quick question, we have

spoken to Labour voters who liked Andy Sawford a lot, they voted for

them, but said you were in their words, wishy washy. Do you have

have more work to do? We always have more work to do. Do you

personally have more work to do? always have more work to do, they

shows people are turning to the Labour, and listening to our

message. We will take the message across the country. On the eve of

his victory, in 197, Tony Blair won in the Wirral South by-election w a

swing of 17%. Today, Ed Miliband saw a swing of nearly 13%, that's

more than the 8% swing to his party when it last captured the seat from

the Conservatives in 1997. But the Tories today pointed out that in

the Crewe and nat witch by-election, there was a 17.6 % swing for them,

that was just before they formed part of a Government. Back to the

here and now, today there was euphoria for UKIP, they knocked the

Liberal Democrats into fourth place. With UKIP doing so well, the Prime

Minister comes under greater pressure to act tough on Europe.

For the people of Cameron Court, is it all over for their prime

ministerial name sake? Most people we spoke to here actually voted

Labour. Elsewhere in public opinion, there may be a bit more hope for

the Prime Minister. Last week when he was accosted on national

television with a list of supposed paedophiles, that may have been a

defining moment for him. The Prime Minister's own pollsters show that

the public thought he handled it rather well. So this period in the

parliament may not actually be too much of a low point for David

Cameron. If true, Corby has not yet noticed.

David Cameron will have to work to ensure he remembers Louise Mensch

for her time in parliament, rather than her departure.

Louise Mensch, who was the Conservative MP for Corby, is in

New York. Was this defeat your fault? Yes, it was. Absolutely. I

had to resign to be with my family. Not because I couldn't take the

pressure, the Prime Minister was very good about allowing me to work

my schedule around my children. But because my husband lived in America,

and we were facing a possible 13- year separation from each other.

That doesn't make it any easier for the party on the ground, and I know

this was really difficult for them. Under those circumstances, I think

a swing of 12% in Crewe and Natwitch, it was a good result

really. I think they will be quietly pleased by it. Thank you

for that, this is pretty bad for the Conservatives, you are in a

worse position in Corby than you were at the height of Tony Blair's

powers in 1997, your share of the vote significantly down? With

respect, it is a by-election. I don't think the governing party has

won a marginal by-election in something like 20 years. We have

seen over and over again, even safe seats change hands against the

governing party, in a by-election. That is when they didn't have to

contend with a sitting MP leaving for family reasons. Now, under

those circumstance, to get 12% swing is pretty run of the mill, if

that. So I don't think that it's anything that we can draw wider

lessons from. And indeed, we saw in Labour's failure to take Bristol

that the message hasn't gone out across the country. It is a by-

election situation and by-election result. What about all your former

constituents, telling Allegra it was about unemployment, immigration

and hospitals, not about you? of them were saying that. But of

course these are vox pop, it depend where is you go. The anecdotal

evidence on the ground was people didn't really understand why I had

left, and they were understandably disappointed. I can very much see

that, an MP should see out the term if they possibly can. I couldn't do

that, I always will regret having put the party in that position.

you think they couldn't understand because your version of events was

flatly contradicted publicly by your husband? That was on the

doorstep before I came out. These the perils of not talking politics

with my very left-wing husband. This isn't about talking politic,

this is talking family, you said you went to New York to keep family

together. He said she thought she would get killed at the next

election? That wasn't a reason. Early on in my term as an MP, I

would worry about the polls and confide that to Peter. Once I had

made the decision to step down any way, which I might say was a front

page story in my local paper in October 2011, it is a matter of

public record. When you decide to step down at the next election, you

stop worrying about the polls. If you are not running, they don't

matter. Worries about elections are a reason not to stand again, not a

reason to leave mid-term. Your husband also says you were worried

about not being promoted, perhaps you weren't Conservative Party

enough, that have another reason? That's Peter's view, not mine. With

apologies to the Labour MP, Austin Mitchell who said I shouldn't

contradict my master in public. Peter, who loves me very much, was

much more worried about it than I was. Contrary to public view, I

never wanted to be a minister. I remember asking the Chief Whip if I

one day might make PPS. I had small children to look after, two days in

my constituencies, I never could have done it in the first place and

I never wanted to. If you are taking all the blame for this, as

you have so candidly done, and if this defeat does turn out to be the

beginning of the end for David Cameron, that is quite something to

hang around your neck, isn't it? Well, the one doesn't follow from

the other. I do have to take the blame for this defeat, whilst at

the same time knowing there was genuinely no other choice for my

family. It was nothing something I would have done frivolously. But as

I said, a by-election with a modest, historic swing, is not going to

mean anything to David Cameron's leadership. The same polling that

exactly predicted the margin of victory in Corby, showed that

voters in the constituency prefer the economic team of David Cameron

and George Osborne to Milliband and Balls, I don't think this has any

wider conotations whatsoever. Thank you. The conflict in the

Middle East has escalated further. For the first time, a rocket was

aimed at Jerusalem itself. Tonight there are reports that the Israeli

cabinet has approved 75,000 reservists to be called up, earlier

the President of Egypt visited Gaza to show solidarity. Not far away,

across the border, Israeli tanks lined up, amid widespread

speculation that Israel would launch a ground invasion.

As missiles arc across the skies of Israel and Gaza, it is a conflict

apparently shooting out of control. New terrors sent Israelis

scrambling for shelter. Destruction is raining down again on Gaza. In a

Middle East, transformed by the Arab uprisings, can hostilities

still be contained? For Israel, the shock today was that citizens,

living in the sent of the country, around Tel Aviv and -- centre of

the country, around Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, were forced into

shelters, by rockets from Gaza, that normally only reach southern

towns near the border. In many respects the state of Israel is

more locked together in a common fate with the poor people in

southern Ashkelon who have been absorbing the rocket attacks for

years. The big cities, without casualties, is a major blow for

Hamas militant groups, it is achieved, partly with the longer

range missiles, manufactured by Israel's worst enemy, Iran. When

you have air raid signals going off for the first time since 19 1.

Today it is Iranian manufactured weapons, but it means Iranian

ballistic missiles, can they also get through Israel's missile

defences, can they also strike Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and other cities.

Today Israeli tanks moved towards Gaza's border, as tens of thousands

more reservists were called up. Israel's escalated the conflict in

recent days. Assassinating Hamas's military chief, in response to

increasing missile attacks from Gaza. But also against the

background of an up coming election in which the Prime Minister,

Binyamin Nethanyahu, needs it appear strong. The calculation for

Israel now, in the face of further Hamas provocation, is whether it is

safe or wise to go further down the road towards all-out war.

Crucially, will it avoid repeating its invasion of Gaza, nearly four

years ago. That left more than 1100 Palestinians dead, according to the

Israeli army, more than 1400 according to the Gaza authority.

There a huge difference you have to keep in mind. The Israel defence

forces have learned this from the previous round in 2009. The Israeli

Defence Force, and Israel itself, are targeting military targets.

There are preparations for a ground invasion, but perhaps no appetite

for it. The same factor that has pushed Israel into this, the up

coming elections and the Likud party's need to appear robust in

the rocket attacks. That same electoral constraints would mean

they wouldn't wish to commit large Israeli groups to a casualty-

intensive, prolonged battle in Gaza. In Gaza, it seems, the battle is

getting messy. Casualties of Israeli strike, including civilians,

were brought into hospital today. The Israeli bombing over the past

48 hours, again in Gaza, is turning our lives here into a nightmare.

The Palestinians here in Gaza do not want to live with the memories

of the last Israeli war. Though Israel's main target now is Hamas.

Other militants here have also been responsible for cross-border

attacks. Hamas has no interest in the firing, but it is the other

Palestinian groups who are pushing Hamas towards escalation, and

continuation of the cycle of violence with Israel. Hamas, which

hosted the Emir recently. And received backing from Turkey

diplomatically, felt increasingly confident. Hamas felt it had to

respond to the killing of its main commander. It has been emboldened

by new support in the region. Now it has to work out if those

political friend, and the exhausted political population it rules,

wants a further escalation of the conflict. Egypt, Gaza's neighbour,

now ruled, like Gaza, by Islamists, will play a key role. Today it sent

the Prime Minister to Gaza, in a gesture of support for Hamas, that

would have been unthinkable before the Egyptian revolution. But the

visit didn't stop the firing. And it's not clear how far beyond

diplomatic and humanitarian help Egypt's support will go.

For all its ideolgical affinity with Hamas, the new Egyptian

Government also needs, partly for economic reasons, to retain the

country's alliance with the west. And, to maintain the relative

stability of the region. It has to work with Israel, in the Sinai

Peninsula, where a collapse in security since the revolution,

threatens both countries. Crucially, the Egyptian Government has lost

control of the Sinai Peninsula. The Sinai, which of course abutts Gaza,

is awash with arms and militant, and Israel is deeply concerned

about weapons moving in from North Africa, through Sinai into Gaza.

Tonight, Gaza was bracing itself for a third night of Israeli

bombardment. While Israeli cities prepared for further possible

rocket attacks. Both sides agree it is Egypt that is in the best

position to try to mediate an end to the conflict. But for now, both

seem intent on raising the stakes. George Mitchell was a US Special

Envoy to the Middle East until just last year, I asked him how worried

he was about a ground war? I think everyone in the region and beyond

should be concerned about a continuation and an escalation of

this conflict. Israel, of course, has the right to defend itself, as

do all nations. And it will do so vigorously, as they demonstrated.

But at the same time, this is a new and turbulent region in the wake of

the Arab Spring, and you have got packically a civil war going on in

Sir -- practically a civil war going on in Syria. You have a

recent change in Government in Egypt, particularly difficult for

the Egyptian Government with their close relationship with Hamas, and

yet their obvious concern that they want to maintain the treaty with

Israel, which Israel itself wants to maintain. And so, there is a

real challenge for all concerned, each party is balancing political

and security interests, as though a group of them were on a high wire

and have to decide how far to go. I think the United States, the UK,

and all of our other allies, are, and should be, actively working to

persuade both parties to stand down. You have negotiated with these

parties in the past. At the moment, how would you persuade them to stop

fighting? Obviously it is very difficult in the heat of the moment.

As we see in the Middle East and in other places, it is a lot easier to

start conflicts than it is to end them. And with each passing day,

and each death, and each bit of destruction, it becomes even harder,

as public attitudes harden. Political leaders feel the need to

continue a conflict. But I think both have to recognise that their

long-term, strategic interests, may be adversely affected. If they go

too far. And is it specifically more difficult now for the United

States, because of the Arab Spring, because politically it might just

have been easier to deal with a friendly dictator? Of course,

that's true for everyone. For everyone involved, including the

Israelis themselves. But, the fact is, that when we say we believe in

the right of self-governance, we believe it. And we mean it. And

even if it comes with the consequence of sometimes you get

more difficult decisions and sometimes you get freely chosen

Governments who take positions that are, at least in the immediate case,

adverse to our wishes, and our interests. Given the high-wire act

you see many of these countries participating in, what are your

greatest and specific concerns about this conflict widening?

of course, you have the added dimension of Iran. And Iran's

efforts to extend its influence into the Persian Gulf region. And,

of course, its publicly stated hostility to Israel. The Hamas

rockets are relatively crude. They have about 8,000-10,000 of them. On

the northern border, Hezbollah has many more, public estimates in

Israel have ranged from 30,000- 50,000. They are some what more

effective. But the most serious threat is that Iran has now made

technological leap from liquid rocket fuel to solid fuel, and they

can reach anywhere in Israel when launched from Iran itself. It is a

complicating factor, because there has been a long historic emknitity,

hostility between Persians and Arab, and there is the continuing

simmering and erupting conflict between Sunni and Shia. All of

these factors complicate an already complex situation, and make it very

difficult to manage. I think both the gulf Arab states and Israel

recognise that the principal threat to their security comes from a

powerful Iran seek to rule over the region.

Two years ago, here is what the Conservative election manifesto had

to say about police and crime commissioners. Giving people

democratic control over policing priorities is a huge step forward

in the empowerment of local communities. Yesterday, people in

local communities, across most of England and Wales, had the chance

to feel empowered, and take democratic control over policing.

How can we best illustrate the turnout? If this pen is the

electorate, this men top is the proportion who wanted to feel

empowered. Actually that is a little bit generous. Around 40

million people had the chance to the vote. Turnout is estimated at

15%. In the west Midland, Merseyside, Thames Valley and he is

specks, 12% made it to the polls. - - Essex, 12% made it to the polls.

In Newport, the people who voted in the 15 hours the polling station

was open was serious. In Humberside, Labour's Lord Prescott lost out to

a Conservative. All the results are now in. Apart from one constituency,

that is Devon and Cornwall, and Conservatives have been elected to

15 of the posts. Labour 13, independent 11, and the "zero

tolerance" candidate in Surrey 1. Let's talk about all of this with

Jessica de Grazia, former New York assistant District Attorney, and

newly elected Police Commissioner for greater man chester, Tony Lloyd.

Con-- Greater Manchester, Tony Lloyd. Is it embarrassing to win on

a turnout of 13.93%? It is not embarrassing for me. Because I have

a job to do. And I intend to do that job in the interests of the

people of Greater Manchester. It would be negligent of my duty were

I not to deliver on that promise. It hab embarrassing for the

Government. -- it has to be embarrassing for the Government.

Their level of incompetence on this is staggering, to create a new post

and not explain why they have done it. To give powers that they didn't

explain to the public. Presumably it is also your responsibility?

tried with the Government who were determined they didn't advertise

this post. A Government that wasn't allowed, that didn't let the use of

the free post, that is we see on general elections in much smaller

constituencies, to have a election on a very complicated balloting

system, which hadn't been used before in many parts of England and

Wales. It was a recipe for chaos. That is what the Government have

created. Embarrassment, it should be, but it should be when David

Cameron looks in the mirror in the morning. When you start to

implement your measures, we will talk about that in due course,

won't the people in your ar why be entitled to saying, you shouldn't

be -- area be entitled to saying, you shouldn't do that, we didn't

vote for him? I have been an elected politician for a third of a

century. Elections give a mandate, but that mandate has to be reearned

every single day, by getting out there, amongst the voters,

listening to them, representing them, vocalising for them, and

challenging those who don't deliver what the electorate expects. That

is my job for the next three-and-a- half years. I can't sit back and

say I will leave an empty chai, simply because the Government made

such a -- chair, simply because the Government made such a cock-up of

the process. What do you think about the democratic mandate the

new commissioners have got? Well, it's not a strong mandate,

obviously. It is a weak mandate. But, Tommy is right, if I was in

his shoes or the shoes of any of the other newly elected police and

crime commissioners, I would be saying this is my job, I have got

to do the job, to the best of my ability. It's a difficult job.

Prime Minister looked to New York as the template for what is

happening in most of England and Wales, what do you think of how

it's been played out here? actually don't think that the

American system was very well understood. I think there was a

superficial understanding, and this superficial understanding was

transposed over here, and that's, I think, created some of the problems

that police and crime commissioners are going to face. I think a major

problem is that the inadequacy of the system of checks and balances.

We have had a hundred years in America to mitigate some of the

damage that can be done when one person is in control of such a

powerful instrument of the state. There hasn't been any time over

here to develop those checks and balances. What about all the

politicians, these party politicians, who have been elected

today, is that good for us? I think it depends upon the person. I think

what's very interesting is that the electors have rejected a lot of the

party politicians and they have chosen independents. They have also

chosen a lot of PCCs who have a policing background. To me that's

interesting, because the public recognises that the person who

controls the police should understand policing. That's

something that does happen in America. The elected District

Attorney is a professional prosecutor who runs for office.

Likewise a elected Sheriff is a professional policeman who runs for

office. If people are confused about what Police Commissioners do,

let me ask you a direct question. If crime fall on your watch, should

you get the credit, and if it rises is it your fault? It is a bit more

complicated than that. You have to give more credit to the police. We

have seen crime dropping in Greater Manchester, nothing to do with me

being in post. The things that help crime reduce, and the things that

help crime, building strong communities, and that requires a

strong police force, it requires strong partnerships. It is building

those partnerships that I think is a job, yes, for the police, but

transcends the police themselves, and involves many other groups, the

local authorities, the communities, people in residents groups, all of

those who build the kind of community base that can challenge

the criminal s and crime. Are you confident you can get your

electorate more interested by next time, briefly? That has to be a

very real test for moo. As I said earlier on, -- for me, as I said

earlier on, the way the politician operates the mandate isn't simply

because of the election and says goodbye for the next three-and-a-

half years be it is by validating that mandate every day by getting

out there and listening to the community and vocalising what they

need to have for their own parts of the conubation. Thank you very much

very much. Review is next, Kirsty, what have

you got? In tonight's show, life, death and religion, in Paul Thomas

Anderson's film, The Master. The welcome collection, Death Makes a