06/12/2012 Newsnight


06/12/2012

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political parrying, tonight we examine where the pain will hurt

:00:15.:00:18.

examine where the pain will hurt most. With the numbers crunched, it

:00:18.:00:24.

looks like households with children are the biggest losers. Maternity

:00:24.:00:28.

pay shouldn't be squeezed, with the climate and household bills this is

:00:28.:00:32.

another thing to add on to it. the Autumn Statement under the

:00:32.:00:35.

microscope, are the cuts to come credible, how hard will they hit.

:00:35.:00:41.

Also tonight. The UN Secretary-General joins

:00:42.:00:46.

President Obama in warning Syria of dire consequences if they unleash

:00:46.:00:50.

chemical weapons, as NATO missiles head to Turkey's Syrian border, we

:00:51.:00:57.

talk to the Turkish ambassador. Mark Blanco died after a fall from

:00:58.:01:05.

a balcony six years ago, after a party attended by PeteDoherty and

:01:05.:01:10.

friends, police investigations have failed to find out what happened.

:01:10.:01:15.

Forensic investigators have looked at the CCTV again and his mother

:01:15.:01:20.

believes the investigation should be opened again. It is outrageous

:01:20.:01:27.

the way Mark's debt has been treated. More than 40 years on from

:01:27.:01:32.

this moment. It is one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.

:01:32.:01:42.
:01:42.:01:48.

A first class ticket to the moon could be your's for �5 million. In

:01:48.:01:51.

the past 24 hours the Autumn Statement have been shaken down.

:01:51.:01:54.

And details like autumn leaves have been falling into the hands of

:01:54.:01:58.

number crunchers. What is clear is the Chancellor is having to play a

:01:58.:02:04.

very long game. The Institute of Fiscal Studies reckons cuts

:02:04.:02:07.

totalling �27 billion could be expected in the years after the

:02:07.:02:11.

2015 general election. Cuts most likely in police, local Government,

:02:11.:02:15.

defence, environment and transport. Making an overall squeeze of almost

:02:15.:02:21.

a third of their budgets. The IFS director said that begins to look

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inconceivable. Well, is it? We will be discussing that in a moment.

:02:25.:02:31.

First we have this. You will remember that before the

:02:31.:02:34.

last election, the Conservatives made much of the fact that they

:02:35.:02:39.

were going to save future generations from inheriting

:02:39.:02:43.

Labour's debt. Well, a new-born at the time of the last election would

:02:43.:02:48.

be roughly two-and-a-half now, and just like these toddlers at this

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nursery in Gravesend in Kent, facing an uncertain fiscal future.

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We now know they will be well through primary school before the

:02:56.:03:00.

debt stops rising. The day after the you bub budget, or statement,

:03:00.:03:04.

is normally when we get a truer picture of the real bad news, when

:03:04.:03:08.

independent analysts get to peer into the bare bones of a

:03:08.:03:12.

Government's figures. The first thing to say is how much worse a

:03:12.:03:16.

state the economy is, even compared to the predictions made just a few

:03:16.:03:22.

short months ago. We are in for a whole lot more pain.

:03:22.:03:26.

Here's where the independent OBR thought growth was heading way back

:03:26.:03:32.

at the time of the March budget. And here, is their line now.

:03:32.:03:38.

In fact, by 2016/17, that difference represents a hole in GDP

:03:38.:03:45.

of 3.6%, and much of that is permanent.

:03:45.:03:49.

So, given that the outlook is now so much worse than we thought it

:03:49.:03:52.

was, how come the Chancellor was able to say that borrowing is lower

:03:52.:03:57.

this year than last? Well, say the Institute for Fiscal you had

:03:57.:04:01.

studies, who have crunched the numbers -- studies, who had

:04:01.:04:08.

crunched the numbers, he as banking on the windfall from the 4G mobile

:04:08.:04:12.

phone spectrum, even though it hasn't been sold yet. And savings

:04:12.:04:16.

from Government departments not spending all of their budgets. The

:04:16.:04:19.

office for budget responsibility also assumes that similar

:04:19.:04:22.

underspend also take place in future years, which is a bit of a

:04:22.:04:25.

double-edged sword for the Government. You will remember on

:04:25.:04:30.

Tuesday the Government preannounced �5 billion worth of new capital

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spending to boost the economy, for next year and the year after. Well,

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today we learned that the OBR is assuming that the capital budget in

:04:39.:04:44.

those years will actually be underspent by �3 billion, meaning

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the Government's �5 billion boost is more like a net �2 billion boost.

:04:49.:04:54.

Not so impressive. The big story, though, is how the pain now extends

:04:54.:04:59.

far over the electoral horizon, another three years, and households

:04:59.:05:02.

with children could be hardest hit. The Government has so far only

:05:02.:05:07.

given us total spending for those years, not how the savings will be

:05:07.:05:12.

shared out. Today, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, analysed these

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totals against the Government's stated priorities, and came up with

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some startling predictions. Assuming that the Government will

:05:19.:05:23.

protect NHS, schools and international aid spending, as they

:05:23.:05:27.

have said they will, well, other departments will have to take

:05:27.:05:34.

another 16.2% of cuts, between 2014 and 2016/17. If you add that to all

:05:34.:05:37.

the cuts that have already happened under the coalition since 2010,

:05:37.:05:44.

then you get a total of 31.5% of cut for non-protected departments.

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Remember this includes defence, the police and local Government.

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According to the independent IFS, this is, quote "close to

:05:54.:05:56.

inconceivable". Public services like the police are already feeling

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the long arm of spending cuts. And proposals today would cut the

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starting salary of a PC by another �4,000.

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It is becoming politically very difficult for the Chancellor to

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continue to pile pressure on certain Whitehall departments, we

:06:13.:06:18.

may see problems in the prison system, or problems with the police,

:06:18.:06:21.

or problems in local Government. It will be difficult for the

:06:21.:06:26.

Government to brush those problems off, by 2015, by which time many of

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the departments will be under pressure. We got more information

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today of how the pain is being shared out F you divide the

:06:34.:06:36.

population into ten income groups, with the highest income on the

:06:36.:06:40.

right, the clear winners from the Autumn Statement are the higher

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than average paid, with the big losers at the bottom. The very

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highest paid are hit too, in fact, they get the biggest hit in cash

:06:50.:06:58.

terms, �8.05 worse off, compared to �5.10 at the bottom. In the budget

:06:58.:07:02.

in the bring George Osborne came unstuck, it looked unfair, the cut

:07:02.:07:08.

in the top rate of tax, the pasty tax, the granny tax, there were

:07:08.:07:12.

issues of fairness. Yesterday he went some way back to restoring

:07:12.:07:16.

that, supporting pensioners, cutting taxes for the low paid.

:07:16.:07:20.

Going after pension tax relief for the very highest earners. But, will

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it work, that's the big thing? families with children may not

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exactly feel fairly treated, broadly speaking they will be the

:07:29.:07:32.

worst hit from yesterday's statement. Changes like limiting

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increases in maternity pay and child benefit to below inflation,

:07:36.:07:39.

not popular. It definitely shouldn't be squeezed at the moment.

:07:39.:07:45.

With the climate as it is, it is hard enough as it is, with all

:07:45.:07:48.

household bills and everything else, this is another thing to add on to

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it. We can probably expect more pain in the form of tax rises and

:07:53.:07:57.

benefits cuts, perhaps even for wealthy pensioners, so far rather

:07:57.:08:01.

protected by the Government. That, of course, is all after the next

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election. We have got some number crunchers

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in the studio, Vidhya Alakeson, from the Resolution Foundation,

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Nicola Smith from the TUC, also Matthew Oakley from Policy Exchange,

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and Ruth Porter from the Institute of Economic Affairs. Nicola,

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austerity is a given, there is a resignation that nobody can do much

:08:21.:08:25.

about it, that is why there is very little dissent? It is as long as

:08:25.:08:28.

the Chancellor continues on an economic strategy that fails to

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meet stated objectives. We know from the Autumn Statement yesterday,

:08:32.:08:37.

we are no closer to reducing the deficit than we were in the first

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place. We need a stimulus to get the economy growing that gives us

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some chance of growth, with real wages rising and unemployment

:08:43.:08:47.

starting to fall. As your broadcast pointed out, we are seeing really

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large cuts in expenditure of service, which are absolutely

:08:51.:08:54.

hitting families with children, twice as hard as those without, and

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cuts in vital benefits that families depend on. �315 less in

:09:00.:09:03.

child benefit for a family with two children, this is not a strategy

:09:03.:09:08.

that is working or creating jobs we need. If you are going to reduce

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the state, presumably the people who will be hit hardest, are those

:09:12.:09:17.

who use the state, that is poorest people? The Welfare Bill has

:09:17.:09:21.

ballooned out of all control, we need to look at how we pull that

:09:21.:09:24.

back. Hitting maternity pay and child benefit? What is missing here

:09:24.:09:27.

is the other side of the equation. What we haven't heard from the

:09:27.:09:30.

Chancellor is discussion about how we are going to get living costs

:09:30.:09:35.

down. If you look at how you tackle poverty in Britain, the answer

:09:35.:09:39.

isn't taking more taxpayer money and redistributing it, the answer

:09:39.:09:45.

is looking at how to bring down the cost of things like housing. Second

:09:45.:09:48.

to Australia we have pretty much the most unaffordable housing in

:09:48.:09:51.

the western world. And the Government, still, even though they

:09:51.:09:59.

talk about it, hasn't taken action on planning liberalisation. We have

:09:59.:10:03.

a huge housing problems without enough houses, it will take a

:10:03.:10:07.

generation to sort that problem. We can't rely on growing housing

:10:07.:10:13.

supply to deal with day-to-day living costs. While the Chancellor

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calls it an Autumn Statement for strivers, more strivers are being

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hit. You are suggesting that the strivers are the working poorer,

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are the ones that are being hit? That is proven by all the analysis,

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that there are more families on low-to--middle income than those

:10:31.:10:35.

out of work. The Government has wanted always for it to be value

:10:35.:10:41.

for a family to work. Now we see actually we are going back into the

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trap? We spent the last 15 or 20 years trying to increase living

:10:44.:10:47.

standards and get people better off. Right now what the Chancellor has

:10:47.:10:50.

done is made a decision that is actually going to adversary affect

:10:50.:10:55.

the working poor. The strivers? think what you have to look at, we

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have tried to do this before, let's increase living standards and

:10:59.:11:03.

increase people in work, by giving them tax credits and more benefits,

:11:03.:11:07.

that clearly hasn't work. It has led to a welfare state that is very

:11:07.:11:10.

expensive, and people getting a lot of benefits. We can't keep

:11:10.:11:13.

increasing benefits over and over again, until we are getting more

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and more incomes from the welfare state, we have to start thinking

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about how to get more people incomes for themselves. How they go

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out and get higher incomes. We are completely living above our means,

:11:24.:11:31.

and actually we can't keep borrowing, that is the fact of it?

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I would be happy if you agreed with me to boost living standards for

:11:37.:11:42.

higher wages, and signing up to higher collective bargaining.

:11:42.:11:46.

can we afford the private wages, look at private industry right now,

:11:46.:11:53.

people can't afford the wages? some places the economy can't

:11:53.:12:01.

afford higher wages in tanging economy, but if we boost growth.

:12:01.:12:06.

Cutting benefit when we need those who need to spend, on low incomes

:12:06.:12:13.

it doesn't make sense. The OBR imply as much. It does make a huge

:12:13.:12:19.

amount of assumptions, the OBR? was hugely interesting looking past

:12:19.:12:22.

2015, and talking about the cuts needed. I think when you start to

:12:22.:12:26.

look at the forecasts, they are very optimistic, I would be

:12:26.:12:29.

surprised if the level of cuts aren't higher than they are saying.

:12:29.:12:33.

You think it is optimistic to say the unring-fenced departmented

:12:33.:12:37.

would have to cut the budget by a third -- departments would have to

:12:37.:12:40.

cut the budgets by a third? can't go on ring-fencing health.

:12:40.:12:45.

What we have is a situation where the recommendation has been made

:12:46.:12:51.

that police constable should not start on �23,000, but on �19,000,

:12:51.:12:55.

presumably you agree with that? do, but we need to reduce living

:12:55.:13:02.

costs for people. It is crazy that pensioners were exempted, why do we

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do that. Presumably you agree with pensioners being exempted, yet what

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could be the rational for exempting pensioners just because George

:13:10.:13:14.

Osborne got a hard time round last time round? I wouldn't agree with

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that. We have talked about sharing the burden of the cuts, I don't see

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any reason after the next election why pensioners should be exempted

:13:21.:13:26.

at all. You would agree with that? Absolutely, we would have looked to

:13:26.:13:32.

change, not the annual limit on pension tax relief, but the

:13:32.:13:34.

lifetime limit, the Chancellor could have raised more money that

:13:34.:13:38.

way. Also, we have a situation where we have ring-fenced and

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unring-fenced departments, can ring-fencing continue? No.

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areas that aren't ring-fenced, we talked about some departments

:13:46.:13:49.

facing cuts of up to 30%. Some departments are facing cuts of

:13:49.:13:53.

close to that amount, social care, housing, for example, parts of

:13:53.:13:58.

nursery education, set to see very steep cut. And these big

:13:58.:14:01.

announcements on Monday about education? We come back to the IFS

:14:01.:14:04.

saying it is simply not sustainable. People need the services to depend

:14:05.:14:09.

on. It is not just about ring- fencing, we needing to back and we

:14:09.:14:12.

need a proper, thorough re-think as to what the Government should be

:14:12.:14:16.

doing. Do we really need an Institute for Women, and a

:14:16.:14:19.

Department of Business, innovation and skills.

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What about local Government? think another way to do it is to

:14:23.:14:27.

actually carve down what central Government does, and actually give

:14:27.:14:30.

local Government much more responsibility, and allow them to

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also raise more money locally, so have quite a different balance of

:14:34.:14:38.

how we do Government in Britain. would agree we have to be sensible

:14:38.:14:41.

about where we spend our money, some of the cuts are counter-

:14:41.:14:45.

productive. The Government has cut 26% spending on youth unemployment,

:14:45.:14:48.

instead we are spending thousands of points for a nearly million

:14:48.:14:51.

young people to spend years out of work. That isn't sustainable. The

:14:51.:14:55.

best way to get the benefit bill down is to get people back in jobs.

:14:55.:15:00.

Thank you very much. The Syrian Government say the west are

:15:00.:15:03.

whipping up fear about President Assad unleashing chemical weapons

:15:03.:15:12.

as a pretext to intervene. The regime was responding to President

:15:12.:15:17.

Obama saying any use of such weapons would be a crime with dire

:15:17.:15:21.

consequences responding with NATO. NATO has agreed to missiles and

:15:21.:15:28.

troops along the border with Syria in Turkey. We have this report, who

:15:28.:15:32.

was in Damascus, I spoke to Jeremy boun earlier.

:15:32.:15:38.

Do you get the sense -- Jeremy bow yen earlier. Do you get a sense

:15:38.:15:43.

that the regime is rattled over the censure over the threat to use

:15:43.:15:46.

chemical weapons? The Assad regime is under more pressure than at any

:15:46.:15:49.

other time. Since all of this started, nearly two years ago, yes

:15:49.:15:54.

they are feeling the strain. There is absolutely no doubt about that.

:15:54.:15:56.

President Assad himself hasn't been seen in public for a couple of

:15:56.:16:00.

weeks, I think, and as you go round this city, and this is my first

:16:00.:16:04.

visit back here, since January, because visas are hard to come by,

:16:04.:16:11.

I can really see the deterioration in the regime's position. Now, if

:16:11.:16:16.

Assad is under pressure, what is your hunch, if the regime was to

:16:16.:16:20.

fall, would he be like Gaddafi, saying he would stay and fight, or

:16:20.:16:26.

do you think he would clear off? think that Syria has a pretty stark

:16:26.:16:32.

choice, actually. That is, that there needs to be some kind of a

:16:32.:16:37.

political solution between the many and varied factions here. The

:16:37.:16:41.

opposition side, both internally with the armed opposition, and

:16:41.:16:45.

internality politically, and external opposition, it is

:16:45.:16:49.

incredibly fragmented, and there is the regime. I think if there isn't

:16:49.:16:54.

some kind of a political deal, then the outlook for Syria is really

:16:54.:17:00.

very bad indeed. A long and bloody conflict, I think that there might

:17:00.:17:05.

be the dissent of Syria into being some kind of a failed state, the

:17:05.:17:09.

growth of warlordism, and because of the connections that Syria has,

:17:09.:17:12.

all that will be felt in the countries around it. How much of a

:17:12.:17:19.

step change is it, the deployment of the anti-missile defences on the

:17:19.:17:29.

Turkish border? I think it is a very strong, symbolic and actual

:17:29.:17:33.

expression of NATO support for turkey. But also of the way in

:17:33.:17:40.

which the west wants to keep the pressure on Syria. It is another

:17:40.:17:43.

sign of pressure. Turkey isn't far from being in a state of war with

:17:43.:17:48.

Syria, the way things have been deteriorating between them. And

:17:48.:17:51.

Turkey actively helps the armed opposition. So they have intervened

:17:51.:17:56.

in the civil war here. So, I think that the deployment of those

:17:56.:18:01.

missiles, it is a sign of resolve from the point of view of NATO and

:18:01.:18:04.

Turkey. But the regime here itself, in a sense, already knew that, it

:18:04.:18:12.

has just been drummed home a little bit more.

:18:12.:18:17.

We have the Turkish ambassador to the UK. On the question of chemical

:18:17.:18:20.

weapons, do you believe he has a big arsenal of weapons? That is

:18:20.:18:23.

what the international community and all the major actors are afraid

:18:23.:18:27.

of. These kinds of regimes are unaccountable, since they are

:18:27.:18:31.

unaccountable, you don't know what the size of their arms are, and

:18:31.:18:36.

what they have in stock. So, I don't think that anybody is ready

:18:36.:18:40.

to take any risks. Every sign, and every signal is trying to be given

:18:40.:18:45.

to the regime that they should not dare use those.

:18:45.:18:51.

To what extent does that reflect in the NATO build-up along the border?

:18:51.:18:57.

NATO-build up is showing solidarity with Turkey, because NATO is a

:18:57.:19:02.

collective organisation, and it is only for the defensive purposes of

:19:02.:19:06.

the tuarkish territory, not for any kind of -- Turkish territory, not

:19:06.:19:11.

for any defensive mess measure, because that would be against the

:19:11.:19:14.

patriot missile centres. Patriot missiles are going to be used, if

:19:14.:19:21.

they are going to be used, to intercept any kind of aggression

:19:21.:19:24.

eminating from Syria into the Turkish territory. Which would, of

:19:24.:19:28.

course, anybody a kind of missile attack, that is the reason why

:19:28.:19:34.

patriots are deployed. Getting ahead of ourselves a minute, if

:19:34.:19:39.

President Assad falls, do you think that the greatest likelihood would

:19:39.:19:47.

be a NATO mission? Into Syria, including tuarkish troops? That

:19:47.:19:52.

requires inter-- Turkish troops? That requires international

:19:52.:19:57.

legitimacy, that can only be gained through the Security Council. I

:19:57.:20:02.

can't see without a Security Council legitimacy that kind of

:20:02.:20:07.

intervention taking place. As far as Turkey is concerned, if it was

:20:07.:20:13.

approved, your troops would go in? Turkey would not act unilaterally.

:20:13.:20:18.

If it was the will of NATO? It is a hypothetical situation, I don't

:20:18.:20:22.

want to make any comments. What do you think Russia's role should be

:20:22.:20:26.

now, in terms of edging out President Assad? I think Russia is

:20:26.:20:32.

trying to reach out to the regime, and trying to make them understand

:20:32.:20:42.
:20:42.:20:44.

that now it is time to bring change to the existing system. And Russia

:20:44.:20:47.

knows it can't continue with Assad and the ray geem can't continue

:20:47.:20:51.

killing its own people -- regime can't continue killing its people.

:20:51.:20:58.

You heard Jeremy Bowen saying that what the regime could be banking on

:20:58.:21:02.

is the disparate opposition, one that you helped train and arm, and

:21:02.:21:10.

without a credible lead figure in the opposition they can continue

:21:10.:21:16.

all the condition. I disagree with Turkey training the army. Turkey

:21:16.:21:19.

has given political support for the opposition. From this point of view,

:21:19.:21:23.

we have tried to bring the opposition forces together under an

:21:23.:21:26.

umbrella organisation. We have always said it would be necessary

:21:26.:21:30.

to be represented in this umbrella organisation, without any

:21:30.:21:35.

discrimination as to ethnicity, religion or sect. That is what has

:21:35.:21:39.

been achieved, actually, that there is a Syrian national coalition, and

:21:39.:21:46.

this, in a way, embraces all the political forces, Turkey has not

:21:46.:21:51.

been assisting to the oppositions with arms. Training camps? These

:21:51.:21:55.

are refugee camps, I have to underline this, it is a serious

:21:55.:21:59.

burden for Turkey, because currently we have some 130,000

:22:00.:22:03.

refugees in Turkey, in different caps, along the Turkish Syrian

:22:03.:22:07.

border, in addition to that, there are Syrians living in cities out of

:22:07.:22:12.

the camps. What is your hunch, do you think

:22:12.:22:16.

President Assad will stay and fight to the death, or do you think he

:22:16.:22:22.

would leave the country? That is what he said, but it is easier to

:22:22.:22:28.

say than it is easier to be done. I had the impression that the Syrian

:22:28.:22:32.

regime is realising that it is approaching a very critical

:22:32.:22:37.

decision, and I think as longly as they can give the decision it will

:22:37.:22:42.

be the best for the Syrian people's future.

:22:42.:22:48.

Six years ago a young man called Mark Blanco, plunged to his death

:22:48.:22:52.

from a first floor balcony after being at a party with the rock star,

:22:52.:22:56.

Pete Doherty, and some friends. The coroner ruled out suicide, three

:22:56.:22:59.

police investigations have failed to find out what really did happen.

:22:59.:23:04.

Now, forensics experts in Britain and the US, have examined the CCTV

:23:04.:23:08.

evidence for Newsnight, and their initial findings suggest Mark

:23:08.:23:14.

Blanco was probably dropped to his death. We have been examining the

:23:14.:23:23.

case over the last eight months. It is just after midnight on a

:23:23.:23:27.

Saturday night, and a young man, in high spirits, arrives in East

:23:27.:23:31.

London. He's hoping to wile away the small hours here with friends.

:23:31.:23:36.

Within minutes he will lie dying, here he is captured on CCTV,

:23:36.:23:41.

plunging from a first floor balcony, minutes earlier he had been

:23:41.:23:46.

haranguing the singer, Pete Doherty, here is Mr Pete Doherty with others

:23:46.:23:50.

running from the scene. What happened, and why has the police

:23:50.:23:54.

investigation failed? I knew as soon as I saw him that it was

:23:54.:24:02.

really bad, he had, his pupils were fixed. It is very consistent with

:24:02.:24:05.

someone being carried and literally dropped over the edge of the

:24:05.:24:10.

balcony. It is like a bad dream, it started

:24:10.:24:17.

and has gone on and on. It needs to be laid to rest.

:24:17.:24:23.

You are convinced that Mark was the victim of foul play? Yes. I am,

:24:23.:24:33.
:24:33.:24:38.

absolutely convinced. Mark Blanco was a talented man,

:24:38.:24:42.

Cambridge educated, with a quick brain and a zest for life. In

:24:43.:24:46.

December 2006, he was about to launch a fresh career, as an actor.

:24:46.:24:51.

It was a big time for all of us, especially Mark. It was the first

:24:51.:24:55.

theatre production we were putting on, from The George Tavern, it was

:24:55.:24:59.

something I always wanted to do, put on a play. And Mark had known

:24:59.:25:08.

this. He came up with the play, The dental Death of an scan anarchist.

:25:08.:25:14.

He had the star role and he was really good. It was just after

:25:14.:25:19.

midnight when he arrived at Fieldgate Mansions in Whitechapel,

:25:19.:25:25.

he was drinking and in a buoyant mood. He goes into a flat of a man

:25:25.:25:28.

well known for using hard drugs, his name is Paul Roundhill. Friends

:25:28.:25:32.

would come and visit me, that was the only way I had a social life,

:25:32.:25:39.

was people coming to me. That is how the sort of saloon emerged.

:25:39.:25:44.

Saloon? That is, I like to think of it as a literary saloon, and

:25:44.:25:48.

creative, I was consciously trying to work with multimedia and

:25:48.:25:51.

collaberate with other artists. was called a crack den, you know

:25:51.:25:57.

that? I know the papers called it a crack den. Was it a crack den?

:25:57.:26:01.

may have seemed like that at times. Because there was crack going on in

:26:01.:26:08.

there? Well, I, you know, I, I had a problem with drugs, yeah.

:26:08.:26:12.

12.15 we see Pete Doherty arrive with a girlfriend, once inside he

:26:12.:26:16.

was seized on by Mark Blanco. The actor wanted the rock star to come

:26:16.:26:22.

to his play, another guest describes him as persistent. He was

:26:22.:26:28.

very, you know, passionate about his play, and he wanted to impress

:26:28.:26:33.

that upon Peter, but because he was drunk it came across as being quite

:26:33.:26:41.

aggressive. Peter was sort of pinned up against the fireplace at

:26:41.:26:48.

one point, and you know, that was when the sort of, everything

:26:48.:26:55.

started to go quite wrong. Which is why I took the very extreme step of,

:26:55.:27:00.

his tweed cap was on the table, I put some lighter fuel on it, and

:27:01.:27:06.

set fire to it. It didn't burn because just the lighter fuel.

:27:06.:27:13.

To try to get him to turn around. It felt very nasty. Just because of

:27:13.:27:18.

the, you know, the measures that people were going to try to get

:27:18.:27:23.

Mark's attention, I thought were unnecessary. A bit bullying? I just

:27:23.:27:27.

thought, you know, it is a very difficult to sit and sort of watch

:27:27.:27:31.

something like that and, you know, it is just not nice, to see

:27:31.:27:35.

anything like that going on. But the atmosphere had changed. There

:27:35.:27:39.

were lots of drugs around? There were drugs around, every night in

:27:39.:27:44.

that flat. That night was no exception. Doherty appealed to his

:27:44.:27:53.

minder, Johnny 'Headlock' Jeannevol, known as HeadLock, and others to

:27:53.:27:58.

come to his aid. He was drunk and we threw him out of the house, and

:27:58.:28:03.

he went out of the house. I said, right, Mark, time to to go, I

:28:03.:28:06.

grabbed him by the lapels, pulled him the length of the flat, as I

:28:06.:28:09.

opened the door and tried to push him out, he had his hands on the

:28:09.:28:17.

jams like this, I tried to aim some punches at his face to get him out.

:28:17.:28:21.

Less than 15 minutes after arriving, Mark Blanco was back outside. He

:28:21.:28:26.

walks away, but then has seconds thoughts. We see him go back inside

:28:26.:28:32.

the building. What happened in the next 57 seconds is crucial and

:28:32.:28:38.

fatal for Mark Blanco. The next time we see him he appears over the

:28:38.:28:43.

railings of that communal balcony, and from a height of 14 feet he

:28:43.:28:47.

seems to drop, head first to the ground. The guests in Paul

:28:47.:28:52.

Roundhill's flat above, all say they were unaware that Mark Blanco

:28:52.:28:55.

returned to the building. It is a further 12 minutes that they are

:28:55.:28:59.

alerting that Mark Blanco is dying on the pavement below.

:28:59.:29:02.

-- alerted that Mark Blanco is dying on the pavement below.

:29:02.:29:07.

wanted to help, and go and see if Mark was OK. I went downstairs

:29:07.:29:10.

immediately. Pete Doherty left the scene, he's seen running away.

:29:10.:29:14.

Peter had walked down the stairs and seen how badly injured Mark was,

:29:14.:29:22.

he was very shocked and upset about it. I kept saying to him, Peter

:29:22.:29:32.

please, just go. It's OK. He said "it's not F-ing all right, it's not

:29:32.:29:36.

all right", he got very upset, and that's when he left.

:29:36.:29:45.

Mark Blanco was taken to hospital, he died the next day. I have had to

:29:45.:29:48.

do it as I go along. If you get behind a few months, then you

:29:48.:29:55.

really have a lot of paperwork and it all has to be sorted out. Sheila

:29:55.:29:59.

Blanco spent the last six years, at least �60,000 and every waking hour

:30:00.:30:03.

trying to find out what happened to her son. She keeps everything,

:30:03.:30:06.

police reports, medical files and legal transcripts, she does it,

:30:06.:30:09.

because from the start, she has been unhappy with the police

:30:09.:30:15.

investigation. When Mark died, the same day, in the afternoon, I was

:30:15.:30:20.

taken, by the police, to those flats, and when I came down from

:30:20.:30:26.

the second or third balcony, I saw Mark's lens glistening in the

:30:26.:30:33.

gutter. His lens? His lens from his glasses. It hadn't been taken away?

:30:33.:30:39.

It hadn't, and the policeman bent down as did I, and he gave it to me

:30:39.:30:43.

as a keeps sake. What did you think? My blood started to run cold,

:30:43.:30:49.

I thought from then I was going to have 0 -- to have, perhaps an

:30:49.:30:54.

uphill battle with the pli. police -- The police. The police

:30:54.:31:00.

got off on the wrong foot, and then the chief investigating officer

:31:00.:31:05.

said he thought that Mark had committed suicide. He did agree

:31:05.:31:12.

that he was 99% sure he committed suicide, and that his brother had

:31:12.:31:18.

died the same way. He said he was trying to empathise with the family.

:31:18.:31:22.

And his judgment wasn't affected. The notion of suicide, always

:31:22.:31:26.

rejected by Mark Blanco's family and friends, looked less realistic

:31:26.:31:32.

once Johnny Headlock, Pete Doherty's minder, had walked into a

:31:32.:31:36.

police station, and said, he had killed Mark Blanco. The reason I

:31:36.:31:40.

said to the police that I had did it, because I would go out and

:31:40.:31:44.

stuff and people would say, you murderer, and this that, and the

:31:44.:31:49.

stress of too much. I sat down and I thought about it, and said, I

:31:49.:31:52.

would phone the police. confessed because people were

:31:52.:31:57.

saying that you did it? It was because the stress, people telling

:31:57.:32:01.

me, and the cocaine was a major factor. People were telling me you

:32:01.:32:08.

did this, this, this, after a while I'm like taking it on board. If you

:32:08.:32:14.

say BEEP I will take it on board, and I will think and think and

:32:14.:32:17.

think. You actually thought you had done it at one point? I didn't

:32:17.:32:21.

think I did it, I know I didn't do it, we know what happened, you know.

:32:21.:32:26.

What did happen? Nothing, nothing from our point of view. Mark was

:32:26.:32:33.

drunk, we threw him out of the house, and then he went out of the

:32:33.:32:37.

house sort of thing. People think you threw him off the balcony?

:32:37.:32:40.

know, people can believe what they want, I know the truth, my

:32:40.:32:48.

conscience is clear. At the coroner's court, this

:32:48.:32:51.

confession, which was retracted almost immediately, and the fact

:32:51.:32:56.

that Mark Blanco had had been punched, only emerged during cross-

:32:56.:33:06.

examination by the Blanco's lawyer. I'm curious, you have a man going

:33:06.:33:09.

into another police station who confessed to the killing. That was

:33:09.:33:15.

no part of the account presented. The coroner wasn't impressed?

:33:15.:33:19.

don't know, he certainly wasn't impressed by the fact that the

:33:19.:33:24.

confession was omitted, ore the fact that Roundhill's -- or the

:33:24.:33:28.

fact that Roundhill's assault on Mark was omitted, and the theory

:33:28.:33:33.

that the whom police investigation was based that this was suicide or

:33:33.:33:36.

accident. The coroner ruled out suicide, recorded an open verdict

:33:36.:33:40.

and told the police to reinvestigate. After a further 18

:33:40.:33:44.

months they concluded that either Mark jumped without meaning to harm

:33:44.:33:50.

himself, or he had been the victim of a criminal act.

:33:50.:33:55.

Mark Blanco's friends said the idea that this confirmed athlete, who

:33:56.:34:01.

wore socks on the beach, would jump as some sort of stunt, is ludicrous,

:34:01.:34:04.

they believe someone deliberately put him over the balcony. The

:34:04.:34:08.

police say in the absence of eyewitness or forensic evidence,

:34:08.:34:12.

they have little hope of finding the truth. Four years after the

:34:13.:34:18.

death, Paul Roundhill, Johnny Headlock and Pete Doherty were

:34:18.:34:20.

interviewed under caution, they were in the flat. The Crown

:34:20.:34:22.

Prosecution Service concluded there was insufficient evidence for any

:34:23.:34:27.

prosecution. The morning Mark Blanco died, Pete

:34:27.:34:31.

Doherty appeared in court on an unrelated drugs charge. His musical

:34:31.:34:36.

career has been interspersed with prison and rehab.

:34:36.:34:41.

Recently he has been appearing at small clubs in London.

:34:41.:34:45.

It is getting on for six months since I asked Pete Doherty to give

:34:45.:34:49.

his side of the story of what happened to Mark Blanco. He's here

:34:49.:34:53.

tonight and we are getting a message from his manager that in

:34:53.:34:56.

fact Pete has decided himself he doesn't want to speak to us. But he

:34:56.:34:59.

has always maintained he had had nothing to do with Mark Blanco's

:34:59.:35:09.

death. In The police have said the CCTV

:35:09.:35:14.

evidence is of poor quality and inconclusive. But Newsnight has

:35:14.:35:17.

consulted video forensics experts, who believe there is far more here

:35:17.:35:22.

than meets the untrained eye. John Kennedy has testified in scores of

:35:23.:35:28.

cases in the UK and overseas. experience tells me from looking at

:35:28.:35:32.

these type of images for many, many years now, that it is not

:35:32.:35:37.

consistent with a jump, it is not consistent with a fall, he just

:35:37.:35:44.

simply drops. There is no evidence of any body movement to suggest

:35:44.:35:50.

that he is trying to break his fall or something like that. There is no

:35:50.:35:54.

defensive movement? None whatsoever, it is literally a drop from outside

:35:54.:35:57.

the railing. The only explanation I can think of that someone might

:35:57.:36:02.

have dropped him off the balcony, right. He doesn't climb over the

:36:02.:36:05.

railing himself, he doesn't jump, he just suddenly appears outside

:36:05.:36:13.

the railing and falling. suggestion of no defensive injuries,

:36:13.:36:17.

consistent with unconsciousness, is in line with a biomechanics

:36:17.:36:25.

investigation, and a neurobuy kolgists report, --

:36:25.:36:30.

neurobiologist's report, both commissioned by Sheila Blanco. This

:36:30.:36:35.

man lectures at the FBI, his initial analysis is startling.

:36:35.:36:39.

examining the video activity in the top righthand corner. It is clear

:36:39.:36:43.

that somebody moves out from inside the building, when the person moves

:36:43.:36:49.

out from the building, there is a lot of mass in front of that

:36:49.:36:54.

individual. That mass suggests that there is more than one person. It

:36:54.:36:59.

is very consistent with somebody being carried out, and literally

:36:59.:37:03.

dropped over the edge of the balcony. So, what we are not seeing

:37:03.:37:07.

is anything that would support that somebody ran and dove or jumped,

:37:08.:37:13.

because the activity doesn't support an upward movement, it

:37:13.:37:20.

supports someone coming out and dropping someone off the edge.

:37:20.:37:26.

experts say these are preliminary findings, and what is need is more

:37:26.:37:30.

tests, but they believe it will confirm their views. The Blanco's

:37:30.:37:33.

barrister say this is a turning point. This is a great difference,

:37:33.:37:36.

this should ignite the enthusiasm of the police to investigate this

:37:36.:37:40.

properly. Mark, who doesn't make any defensive gestures, as any

:37:40.:37:44.

normal, conscious person would do, Mark is dropped, or thrown off that

:37:45.:37:48.

balcony. And someone was there. think the case should be re-opened?

:37:48.:37:52.

Of course it should be re-opened. It is not too late. All those who

:37:53.:37:57.

were in Paul Roundhill's flat have said they didn't come down to the

:37:57.:38:07.
:38:07.:38:08.

communal balcony until after Mark Blanco went over. Sheila Blanco is

:38:08.:38:11.

now into her seventh year trying to find out what happened to her son.

:38:11.:38:16.

She's not giving up. My resolve now is even stronger

:38:16.:38:22.

than it was. It is in equal measure to the outrageousness to the way

:38:22.:38:26.

that Mark's death has been treated. The whole case needs revisiting

:38:26.:38:36.
:38:36.:38:37.

very, very seriously. The truth will out.

:38:37.:38:43.

40 years ago tomorrow, the crew of Apollo 17blasd off for the last

:38:43.:38:49.

scheduled manned commission to -- blasted off for the last scheduled

:38:49.:38:54.

manned mission to the moon. Many then thought in this many years we

:38:54.:38:58.

would be living there. But despite all the space exploration, no crew

:38:58.:39:01.

has been back. A commercial company has made the bold claim that it

:39:01.:39:06.

will offer the paying public the chance to land in the moon -- land

:39:06.:39:12.

on the moon by the end of the decade. That is one small step for

:39:12.:39:22.
:39:22.:39:25.

man, one giant leap for mankind. July 1969, Neil Armstrong became

:39:25.:39:30.

the first man to set foot on the moon. During the next three years,

:39:30.:39:35.

12 men touched down on the lunar surface, collecting precious

:39:35.:39:40.

samples, that changed our ideas about how the earth was formed.

:39:40.:39:46.

We're on our way. 40 years ago the crew of Apollo 17, waved goodbye to

:39:46.:39:50.

the moon for the last time. Now the idea of manned trips to the moon

:39:50.:39:54.

seem, well, extravagant. China has plans to do it t and NASA wants to,

:39:54.:39:59.

but says it doesn't have the money. A small step for space travel, one

:39:59.:40:03.

giant leap for privately-owned commercial enterprise. But the

:40:03.:40:09.

private sector is getting ready to blast off. �870 million could soon

:40:09.:40:14.

by you two return tickets to make the trip yourself.

:40:15.:40:21.

The salesman is with us, the co- founder of Golden Spike. Good

:40:22.:40:28.

evening. First of all, have you got a waiting list? I can't tell you we

:40:28.:40:33.

have a waiting list at this point, but we have reached out to more

:40:33.:40:37.

than one prospective customer, and received some positive interest.

:40:37.:40:41.

You mentioned whether we are going to be paying, sending the paying

:40:41.:40:46.

public to the moon, that is not exactly our business model.

:40:46.:40:52.

Although that could happen at some point. Our target customer is the

:40:52.:40:56.

space agencies and science agencies of foreign Governments. So, wait a

:40:56.:41:00.

minute, what we are talking about here, is Government countries

:41:00.:41:03.

hoping to get a toe hold in the moon, for whatever reason, using

:41:03.:41:08.

your commercial, what will it be, the space shuttle or will it look

:41:08.:41:15.

different? It will look a lot more like The Apollo-era rather than the

:41:15.:41:17.

space shuttle. You are right about human decision not having been to

:41:18.:41:21.

the moon in 40 years, but we have learned a heck of a lot in those 40

:41:21.:41:25.

years about humans surviving in space and the equipment necessary

:41:25.:41:31.

to travel in space. What The Golden Calf team has done is formulate an

:41:31.:41:40.

-- the Golden Spike team is formulate a process on all that has

:41:40.:41:46.

made human space flight possible in the last 40 years, and combine that

:41:46.:41:49.

with the emerging technologies available from companies such as

:41:49.:41:57.

Space Exploration Corporation and United Launch Alliance. Give us the

:41:57.:42:03.

perspective, three days to get there and how long when you are up

:42:03.:42:09.

there, do people have to do good things for mankind, what will

:42:09.:42:17.

happen up there? The duration of the lunar mission under the Golden

:42:17.:42:21.

Spike architecture, will be comparable to The Apollo programme.

:42:21.:42:24.

What we envisage being accomplished on the moon is science. You mention

:42:24.:42:28.

the moon rocks taken back. It will be commercial? The science that

:42:28.:42:32.

could be conducted by those on those moon rocks really just

:42:32.:42:36.

scratched the surface about what we know of the moon's composition, and

:42:36.:42:40.

therefore, what we know about the formation of the earth. So it is

:42:40.:42:48.

actually commercial. We are talking about, $1.4 billion, �800 million,

:42:48.:42:51.

people will really think this is something they can reap the reward

:42:51.:42:54.

of when they get up there, major commercial, mineral, whatever, to

:42:54.:42:59.

spend that kind of money? At some point we think there will be a

:42:59.:43:04.

commercial market for our customer, such as mining water for more

:43:04.:43:08.

expansive space exploration and helium 3. But, again, we think that

:43:08.:43:11.

the near-term market will be from foreign space agencies, who right

:43:11.:43:17.

now are paying hundreds of millions of dollars, if not a billion-plus

:43:17.:43:22.

dollars, just to conduct robotic science in orbit around the moon

:43:22.:43:26.

and the lunar surface. All of the scientific community agrees you can

:43:26.:43:30.

achieve a greater degree of science with people having boots on the

:43:30.:43:34.

moon. Can you just give us a sense of who this prospective early

:43:34.:43:38.

customer might be, it wouldn't be India hoping to get there before

:43:38.:43:42.

Pakistan? We are not mentioning the names of any of our perspective

:43:43.:43:46.

customers city point. We can tell you we have reached out to two

:43:46.:43:51.

Government space agencies, other than NASA, and they have both

:43:51.:43:56.

expressed interest, and we have many more on our list, based on the

:43:56.:43:59.

market research we have done over the last two years, who we think,

:43:59.:44:03.

based on the expenditures they have made for lunar science in the past,

:44:03.:44:07.

would be very interested in spending $1.4 billion to spend

:44:07.:44:12.

scientists to the moon. Presumably there might be a discount on offer

:44:12.:44:17.

to get there early and get you off the ground. When will you make the

:44:17.:44:20.

first flight? We are looking at that within the decade, a flight to

:44:20.:44:25.

the surface of moon, and orbital missions prior to that. Have a good

:44:25.:44:33.

flight, thank you very much indeed. Tomorrow morning's front pages now:

:44:33.:44:42.

On the Financial Times there is a story saying Starbucks will be

:44:42.:44:52.
:44:52.:44:52.

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 42 seconds

:44:52.:45:35.

Tonight we leave you with some of the works of the great Brazilian

:45:35.:45:44.

architect, Oscar Nemire, who has died before his 105th birthday. He

:45:44.:45:54.
:45:54.:45:54.

said he was inspired by the curves # Long and lovely

:45:54.:45:59.

# The girl from Impanema goes walking

:45:59.:46:02.

# When she passes # She passes

:46:02.:46:05.

# She goes by # When she walks

:46:05.:46:09.

# Just like a samba # That swings so cool

:46:09.:46:14.

# And sways so gently PC when she passes

:46:14.:46:20.

Each one she passes goes # Ahhh

:46:20.:46:30.
:46:30.:46:32.

# Oh but A cold start to the day, frost and

:46:32.:46:36.

icey patches around, rain and sleet and snow in parts of East Anglia

:46:36.:46:39.

and the south-east. Grey for eastern England and Scotland, right

:46:39.:46:42.

the way through the day, with a good scattering of showers. A

:46:42.:46:46.

strong wind coming down from the north. Temperatures only five or so

:46:46.:46:50.

degrees, add on the wind and it will feel raw out there. Some

:46:50.:46:53.

sunshine to be found for the southern counties of England. A

:46:53.:46:57.

nice afternoon with sunshine, top temperatures only seven or eight,

:46:57.:47:00.

and the keen breeze coming from the north. It will feel cold in spite

:47:01.:47:04.

of the sunshine. Not completely dry, showers dotted around in Wales, one

:47:04.:47:08.

or two of those drifting towards the north coast of Devon and

:47:08.:47:10.

Cornwall. A dry afternoon in Northern Ireland, plenty of

:47:10.:47:15.

sunshine, again, a cold feel to things, particularly in that breeze,

:47:15.:47:18.

some sunshine too for western Scotland, chilly. The north and

:47:18.:47:22.

east of Scotland sees thicker cloud, showers around some of those,

:47:22.:47:25.

wintery over the hills. As we get towards the start of the weekend.

:47:25.:47:29.

Something of a north-south split develops, the northern half of the

:47:29.:47:33.

UK sees cloud around, rain crossing Scotland, further south, after a

:47:33.:47:37.

cold start to the day on Saturday a good deal of sunshine, nothing for

:47:37.:47:42.

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