12/12/2012 Newsnight

It's December 12th, 2020 eight years from now, Britain has left

the European Union, at least, that's what increasing numbers of

us seem to want. Some time very soon, David Cameron is going to

have to tell us What If he our destiny in Europe to be. Will we be

allowed a vote on the subject? Tonight we explore whether if we

quit we would be throwing off shackles or crippling ourselves.

With testimony and argument from those on both sides of the debate.

We will hear from Paris and the author, Irvine Welsh in Edinburgh.

What might the future be like, the Mayor of London has his own ideas.

What we want to do is end the misery and mistrust, and stop

everybody blaming us for not sharing the zeal of the

eurofederates. We don't share that zeal. We don't have any ambition to

pool British sovereignty and create this single state, we don't want to

do that, give us a new relationship. You stop blaming us for being the

backmarkers, we stop moaning, and we have a new treaty.

Latest opinion polls seem to suggest that nearly three-quarters

of us may want to leave the European Union, or to have a

different sort of relationship with it. Some time in the very near

future, the Prime Minister is expected to announce that we will

be allowed a vote in a referendum on whether to stay in, or get out.

So, that's what we are exploring tonight. These people, our own

viable destin -- our only viable destiny is part of the European

Union project, to these, we have nothing to lose but chains. Quickly,

what is your position, what do you think if we decide to leave? It is

a dangerous and cold environment we are in. Prosperity we will not have

inward investmentors coming into Britain, we won't -- investors

coming into Britain, and we won't be able to export leasely. We are

not part of a regional block, we are an isolated country. We are cut

off from the source of peace and stability in Europe. You think it

is a Promised Land, don't you? will go on doing business with

European countries companies as we do now, but smaller percentages.

Firstly, the European Union is heading for a disaster, and the

customs free we are trapped in, we will be able to negotiate our own

deals, the future for Britain should be global, not European.

run a global company? I try to. The biggest advertising company in the

world, isn't it. What do you think it will be? I would be worried in

2020, limited access to 500 million, and access to a $17 trillion dollar

economy. Limited access to exports and financial services company,

apart from advertising agencies and the like. We will probably still be

renegotiating bilateral trade agreements in 2020, eight years on.

And last, but not least, we will probably have a diminished

political significance. So, I worry about it in all those context, and

from the point of view of somebody trying to run a multi national

company, I'm extremely worried about lack of access. You run a big

financial house. Yes. Why do you take a contrary view? If I can put

it simply. If we weren't in, we could actually enjoy the benefit of

free trade. Which, ironically, we were supposed to have got from a

Common Market, but we don't, with the remainder of the world. How do

you think about it? A lot of it depends on the deal that Britain

gets with the rest of Europe. There is an assumption here, that you

just show up in Brussels, in a few years time, with a list of demands

and you pick and choose, we will comply with these EU rules, but not

those. That deal is not available, if it was available to Britain, it

would have to be available to all other countries, and a single

market would unravel. So, I think there is a choice between in or out,

and if Britain is out, like Martin said, limited access, and very

importantly, the countries that Britain wants to trade with, China,

India, they are not natural free traders. They open their markets

because the juggernaut of the European Union comes along and says

you get access to our markets. Britain doesn't matter here.

are Norwegian, and Norway is outside the EU, you think even that

is too close? Yes, we are in the EU agreement, which is the single

market. The European economic agreement? It is the single market,

and we think that is too much, for us. What do you think, supposing

Britain joined you, which is probably the best we could hope for,

that we would be in some sort of arrangement, you are shaking your

head, you can explore that later. We are a big market place for

Europe, we trade a massive deficit for these countries, �45 billion a

year. I think in 2020 Britain will be a member of the European Free

Trade Association. That would be good. We will explore that in depth

shortly a referendum will reduce our complicated feelings about the

European Union, to a simple binary choice, in or out. So, back to the

future. We have asked our Economics Editor, Paul Mason, to sketch out

the possible consequences of each choice, first off, how leaving the

EU might be good for you, by the year 2020.

Here's the scenario, in 2015, in a referendum, Britain votes to leave

the European Union. Under the Lisbon Treaty, a two-year

transition process begins. Our MEPs leave the parliament, and

Britain's EU Commissioner stand down. By the summer of 2017, the

transition is complete, Britain is out of the single market, the

Common Agricultural Policy, the Common Fisheries Policy, the

European Court of Justice. Blue flags disappear from Britain's

beaches. But what then? It is December 12th, 2020, here is the

news. The Office for Budget Responsibility today confirmed that

the for the third year in a row, Britain is growing faster than at

any time since the Blair era. GDP growth stood at 4%, but the

Chancellor said inflation remained unacceptably high. Predicting what

Britain's future might look like, if we left the EU, is difficult,

because there is no authoritative research. But, if we did leave, and

growth picked up, what might have gone right to make that happen?

Over a period of time, we would benefit, because we could have

freer trade with the rest of the world, lower food prices, we could

wind down some of the renewables, lower electricity prices, fewer

directives and regulation, more small businesses would come back.

We wouldn't have all these problems of people coming from Europe and

wanting our welfare benefit, and to use the NHS. In all these ways,

Britain would benefit. Britain is a net importer from the European

Union, running a trade deficit with the EU last year. That should make

it possible to do a trade deal, one option would be to do what Norway z

and remain part of the European Economic Area. But in this, more

radical scenario, the UK secures a favourable bilateral trade deal,

modelled on Switzerland. It quickly signs new bilateral deals with key

markets set to experience high growth, Brazil, China, India and

Russia Some analysts claim European

regulations cost business �19 billion a year. In this scenario

these are scrapped, the UK would choose which social legislation it

wanted to keep, for example, the Working Time Directive, or the

agency workers directive, which have been controversial here.

In this scenario, agricultural subsidies, �3.8 billion are phased

out. And Britain's �8 billion net transfer to the EU ends. And there

is free movement of labour in and out of the EU is cancelled, there

would likely be a work force affect, and it -- effect, and it might be

positive. Unemployment is at an all-time low, as manufacturing

employment is rising, and as European migrant workers leave. The

number of EU citizens living in the UK, which peaked at two million in

2012, has halved. Most coffee bars and fast food stores are now 90%

staffed by UK nationals. Financial services account for about 10% of

our GDP now, but in our future scenario, if things went right for

Britain, outside Europe, the City of London could benefit, as Europe

regulates, home mojises, clamps down, London could effectively

become an off-shore centre, a giant Singapore. The prospects for

Britain in the 21st century, if you like, as a global nation, not a

European-focused nation, as a global nation, are fabulous. That

is really because the kind of English-speaking world in

particular, I think, will do extremely well in the 21st century,

Canada, Australia, America, India. We should plug into that.

All scenarios are speculative, and this best-case scenario, the

assumption is globalisation continues. That might be

overoptimistic, but some do dream of a booming city, in a booming

Britain, outside the EU for good. These three are apostles of

withdrawal, reasoned you? Take that as a compliment. It may have been

intended that way, who can say. That was a very narrow view that

piece. What would Britain feel like outside the EU? I think our

democracy would be regenerated. When we have general elections now,

we debate schools and hospitals, because there is no point

discussing business regulation, all of those things are now decided by

European law. There is almost nothing the British Government or

parliament can do about these things. We would suddenly have

furious debates on how we managed industry, how we dealt with our

renewable energy targets. We would be in charge of these things. And

democracy would benefit, more people would vote in general

elections, we would be in charge of our own house again.

It's hard to believe that we have been more regulated if we are

outside. We might feel a bit freer in that regard. If you look at

those wonderful things where you look at the 246 words in the

Gettysburg address, and the 10,000 words on the policy of eggs in the

EU, I wouldn't imagine we would be subject to more regulation, which

is not what we want? We regulate ourselves more than the Europeans

do. We gold plate our regulation. We wouldn't have anything to gold

plate. You will have your shout in a second or two. What do you think

it would be like? I think it would be a proud and independent nation

outside the EU and and play a proper role on the world scene. The

EU is only 27 countries, there are 180 countries in the world. We have

growing markets f we want to talk economy, in Asia, where Britain

will be able to do business. We will look at that in a moment or

two. Let's look at something else, we have heard how it might be on

the sun lit uplands, supposing there was another possibility,

supposing it didn't go right when we left the European Union.

Here's the scenario again, in 2015 the UK votes to leave the EU, by

2017, following a fractious process of boycotts and treaty disputes it

is out. This time it goes badly. They are calling it Black Monday,

the British Aerospace factory is to close with a loss of 5,000 jobs.

The move came as Airbus, based in Toulouse, said the end of called

fri,-free cross-border manufacturing, has -- friction-free,

cross-border manufacturing has made this factory uneconomic. With

doubts over the future of Nissan, an urgent debate is scheduled in

parliament. About half of all the goods we export end up in Europe,

and much of that trade is dependant on the absence of friction, within

cross-border manufacturing processes. If Britain fail to

negotiate a decent trade agreement with Europe, that could be at risk.

As this graph shows, the proportion of UK trade beyond the EU has grown,

steadily. But this rebalancing has taken ten years to achieve, and

pushing it further could be hard. Even if we ended up in a situation

where growth is really looking up, and things look rosy in 2020, we

would probably still have been better off if we had stayed in,

particularly because tide is turning in our direction. The EU is

now with the reforms because of the eurocrisis, entering service

liberalisation territory, more and more people use English as a

language. Exactly at a time when Britain's liberal influence is

finally opening up this single market to its true potential, it

would be foolhardy to leave, and partially lock ourselves out of it,

when we could be benefiting completely from this. There was

chaos at all Britain's airports, as well as in Portsmouth and

Southampton, as Britains returning from Spain raced to reach the 1st

of January deadline, set by the Spanish Government. If we cancelled

the free movement of labour between here and the EU, other countries

might retaliate. There are 400,000 Brit living in Spain, and in the

worst case scenario, fry-ups and Guinness on the Costa del Sol,

could be for holiday makers only. If somebody that agrees strongly

with free movement of labour, I think it will have a net negative

impact. Some of the very highly- talented people coming to the UK,

most recently in the software industry, will stop coming. This

will be a quid pro quo arrangement, it is not as if we could ask the

Poles to leave, and the Brits working in Germany and France will

be allowed to statement this will be something that will damage us in

two ways. Suppose the global conditions change, suppose the

world deglobalises, then, there is a danger that Britain gets crunched,

between the much bigger trading blocks of Asia, the Americas, and

Europe theself, and even City would find it hard to -- the City would

find it hard to survive that. The EU has already turned nasty Against

Switzerland, forcing it to abandon its secret banking practices. If

Britain lost the battle with Frankfurt or Paris, it might not

look so good for the City. One's bound to ask, why, if this is

such a wonderful institution, opinion seems to be turning against

it in this country? I think that's because people have been fed a diet

of stories, such as we get from the other side. But, actually, Europe

has made us prosperous, it has brought prosperity to us and the

rest of the continent. I worry that in 2020, we would find that the

Americans wouldn't be interested in us, they would be interested in

Europe, the Chinese wouldn't be interested in you, they would be

interested in Europe. Inward investors would no longer want to

invest in us, they would invest in Europe. We would be lonely and

poorer. I think the time something very interesting, the transition

period, we would be out in 2017, precisely the wrong time, that is

probably precisely the time that western Europe will see some sort

of recovery. It will be difficult, tough slaving until then, but it

will come back. And France, Italy, Spain and Germany will be leading a

revival in GDP in Europe. Do you find this scaremongering a bit

pathetic? There is just too much uncertainty. The one thing that I

don't quite understand, why do people here believe that the

European Union is holding Britain back, but they are looking up to a

country such as Germany, which is doing well at the moment, which is

also in the European Union, and they manage to export, not twice as

much to China as Britain, not three-times, not four-times, but

probably six-times as much. Despite having to carry most of southern

Europe? And despite being in the euro and having all the same

regulations under social legislation. If you make that

thought experiment, how much freer or better would Britain be better

off, would there really be no regulation in this country. Would

people be want to go work 100 hours a week, no health and safety

regulation. What do you mean no health and safety regulation, we

will have home-grown health and safety regulation? How exactly will

that be different from the European rules that are now being worked out

between all the European countries. We would have chosen them ourselves,

instead of letting some other nationality choose them? Then,

every time you want to export something to the continent, you

have to go through a safety certificatation process, because

you are not going to import anything from Bangladesh that isn't

tested. That is the same, if we have to export goods to any other

part of the world. We have to conform with their markets. The

important thing to remember is this, Paul Mason's figures were wrong,

half our trade is not with Europe. Because of the Rotterdam effect, if

we transshift shuft that shows the trade figure. The true figure is

38%. I'm not suggesting that 38% of our overseas market isn't important,

it is important, but it is a declining part of our overseas

business. The eurozone is contracting, large parts of the

European economy, and we find ourselves as the sixth-biggest

economy in the world, forbidden from making. Europe won't continue

contracting forever. Nothing lasts forever. There could be a

drafplatic bust in the eurozone in the next five years, you can't deny

that. But there are markets growing in the next five years, and we are

forbidden for bilateral trading. have more leverage as a �500

million market with �17 trillion of GBP. It gives you the ability to

negotiate those bilateral agreements. Switzerland have more

bilateral agreements than we do on their own. We will introduce some

specific witness, we have also been joined by Sir David Tang, who owns

a number of successful businesses in China and the UK, he's CEO of

ByBox Business. Stuart Miller a businessman who is here, your ByBox,

I'm sorry, I'm joined from Edinburgh by the writer, Irvine

Welsh. If we rid ourselves of this great bogeyman of the European

Union, what do you think it would do to us Irvine Welsh? I don't

think it would do that much on the basis of what I have heard today.

The argument seems to be constructed on the neo- liberal

defence of the elites, whether in Brussels or Westminster. I think

people, middle-class people, who are struggling with debt, and

working-class people who are struggling to find jobs or having

their pay and conditions constantly eroded, and the poor people who are

just struggling to get by, are going to be massively underinspired

by this debate. It just seems to be kind of, the advocacy of one set of

self-serving elites against another. Broaden it out then? Well, I mean,

there is so many different scenario, the fact that when you are trying

to talk about constitutional arrangements, and look at how that

pans out economically. We have no accord here, and basically people

don't know. It is all conjecture and speculation. Everybody knows

that essentially what happens economically is sometimes very

little to do with membership of these kind of institutions. You can

be Greece or Iceland, it doesn't really make that much odds. It is

all about what happens in the global economy. Let's take your

first point there. When he says that big business, of the kind that

you two represent, sold us a pup on Europe, he's right, isn't he?

don't think so. I don't think so at all. Small businesses benefit

hugely, every worker in this country benefits from the

additional employment and growth you get. Why do they keep

complaining about regulation then? Because businessmen always complain

about regulation, they will complain about regulation if

Britain has sole control of it. is true that there is excessive

regulation. You want us to join the euro? It is true that there is a

negative result of that. But the ability to deal with it inside the

group. It is nonsense to suggest that it is not. To be able to deal

with it inside the ten is the way to go, not outside the ten. It is

to be inside arguing your base, instead of being on the outside.

You have a greater faith in our ability to pluns people. I have a

great faith in negotiating something that makes sense. Your

business is small, isn't it, has it worked for you, the European Union?

It is a bit clunky. I have to come back on the point about it being

successful for smaller companies. Us expanding into Europe. How big

is your company? We employ 350 people in five or six countries.

This year we have launched in Tel Aviv and Toulouse, it was just as

difficult in both territories. There is something very wrong in

that. It should be much easier from my perspective to launch new

offices and businesses in an EU member-state, than one that isn't

part of the EU. I get the fact it is difficult, these aren't easy

problems to fix, it is things like local taxation. What is the problem

with the EU? If you think about every state having local tax regime,

I understand why, we can't move down the fact of an integrated

fiscal platform, that is far too complicated and it couldn't work.

There has to be an easy answer to the question, if I open an office

in France, how can I submit an invoice, it can't be that

complicated. But it is. Landing the conversation right in the heart of

a UK entrepeneur, trying to expand across Europe, it should be

friction-free and easier. In 2012 outside you will customs forms and

VAT forms. You make it sound like it is simply filling forms in, it

is not as easy as that. Opening offices, directors responsibilities

in different countries, complicated legal exposure. People watching it

think I might be moaning about some form filling, this has some teeth,

you get it wrong, and you get fined. That is not a free market.

firing people in France as a business. I have operated three

businesses in France, every time I have suggested any kind of

downseizing my financial director has turned pale. There is a

completely different set of labour laws operating under there, which

are clearly not business-positive. You must view the treatment of

labour, without the safeguards that the European Union imposes, with

some disquiet, don't you, after leaving? I don't think you can in

practice say this European Union is this kind of, you know. The

European Union is a neo-liberal organisation too. It is increase

league, the whole point of the European Union since the treaty of

Rome is to be expansive, is to be, there hasn't been one architect of

European integration who has said that's enough integration. That is

an issue. People have the right to challenge any constitutional

arrangements, they have the right to challenge any kind of power

block. Whether it's Westminster, whether it's Brussels, they have

the right to think about the constitutional arrangements that

benefit them. But, the whole kind of pardigm that we are in now, we

have had 30 years of neo-liberals in this country, to think that the

European Union has managed to save working-class and middle-class

people from the effects of that, is very, very erroneous. The only

thing that we are saying is that people would be reduced to an even

kind of worst state if we were outside the European Union. Again,

possibly not. Do you agree with that, Nigel Farage? When you talk

about working-class people, one of the biggest concerns out there is

about jobs. Whilst free movement of people has worked, when we had

northern European countries in the European Union. To have extended

our borders, to the whole of Eastern Europe, as we have done

since 2004, has meant a massive oversupply in the unskilled markets.

Which has meant that many households have members of the

family unemployed which wouldn't have happened. Withdrawal means an

end to European integration, calling a spade a spade? It means a

total end to European integration. That means an end to the people

coming in to give vitality to the creative industries and industries.

We use work permits, we don't have a total open-door. We have had

massive oversupply in the unskilled labour supply, that is an

irresponsible. My grandparents wouldn't have got into the country.

And my father. You are better at central planning, you know five

years ahead what these small nimble businesses in the heart of London

need, you issue the right work permits and make sure people around

the world know that these immigration permits are available

but others aren't. This is very complicated. You are so proud of

your flexible labour market and you want to micromanage it. What I know

is on the 1st of January 2014, we are opening our social security and

welfare system up to millions of people from Romania and Bulgaria,

and I don't think that is good for working families in this country.

It was said this was a neo-liberal organisation, the European Union is

based on idealism, it is an idealism we don't find particularly

comfortable in this country. It is about peace and working together.

Why do we do it then? It helps economic growth and business. The

underlying reason was to keep the peace between France and Germany.

Why is it so unpopular? Because Brussels is always used as the fall

guy. It has gone beyond peace between France and Germany.

Everything that goes wrong it is Brussels. We haven't had an

extensive and detailed debate about it yet. We may well do if we go

into a referendum phase. Have a and meaningful debate as opposed to

something else. One of the arguments is that by being within

the European Union this country makes itself open to all sorts of

inward investment from Asian and other countries, the merging

economies, and Brazil and Russia, India and China. It also, because

people like the idea of access to the single market, is that true?

I think I hear all these politicians, big business talking

about the European Union, Britain, as if the businesses don't matter.

Not a single mention has been made about what it is that underlies the

business, that people want to do. Whether it is trade, or whether it

is investment, whether it is the product, or the services. I mean,

Germany does very good because the Mercedes Benz car is damn good F

Britain made good things, and provided good services, China would

buy it. And China will invest in it. Already China does quite well with

Britain. It has, for example, on the London Stock Exchange, I think,

eight listed companies, worth about �16 billion. 43 smaller quoted

companies on AIM worth about �3.5 billion. People underestimate the

language, �300 -- 300 million people in China are learning

English. And also, they have a history through Hong Kong, which is

possibly one of the greatest free zones, as far as a free market is

concerned, about how China will get out. Britain should do much more in

Hong Kong. Let me just say one more thing. The question, whether the UK

is in or out of Europe, I think is very, going to be very low on

agenda for any businessman. I was precisely going to ask you, do they

care? You predicted what I was going to say. And the answer is no.

You look at the car industry, the Aerospace industry, and the

financial industry, they do care. The point about the Briks, the next

11, is valid, we haven't penetrated those markets. We have sent an

expedition to Brazil, it is not in the top 11 markets, they have

already exceeded the UK in their markets, they play better football

too. Why did we buy Rover? Because it was being run down, they saw the

opportunity to create that band and the technology, and bring it back

to China and replicate it, and sell millions of cars. You are right, we

have to do both. We have to focus on a massive European, western

European market, which at the moment is in recession, but will

come out of recession, that is one thing. We also have to build our

training positions in the Brazil- Russia-India-China. We are not

allowed to. Can I just add one other very important thing. One

very important thing. How do we manage to get a third of our

business there. The euro, the Chinese regard as extremely

dangerous, they simply don't understand or can predict where it

is going to go. The sterling is not as great a currency, purpose, but

there is much more certainty. And already the British Government is

doing quite a lot in terms of trying to help the currency to

become convertible. More than anybody else. Britain is doing

quite well. And so the question whether it is in or out, for me is

irrelevant. The Norwegian experience, how much do you suffer

from being outside the European Union? I don't think we suffer at

all. And to be honest. You can't compare, you are an oil-dependant

economy, and Britain is 12-times bigger than Norway, you have masses

amounts of oil. It is the same as Switzerland, it is the fallacy of

the people here. Norway, Switzerland, stable, rich, comfy

place, if we are outside the European Union, we will be the same.

That is clearly not the case, they are niche players. They have fish

in nor way, and we have given away an industry on the own that would

be worth �3 billion a year of what is caught in British waters is

given away to all the other fleets fleets.

We have to negotiate fish in British waters. The very rude

English people talking all over each other. I agree. I think we

manage well outside the European Union. We have an oil-based economy,

that is true. But the revenue from the oil is transferred into the

Norwegian society. That's a political choice we have made.

it not also true that you have to abide by European regulation, isn't

that true? To get access to the single market? That's true. You are

essentially governed by facts from Brussels? No we are not. E-mail!

the EU agreement, the single market agreement has a clause where we can

actually veto a directive if we don't like it. We have done that.

That's pretty gracious of them, you are not in it and you are allowed

the right to veto something? We are also invited in the beginning.

There is an important connection between two people here. One of the

things that I think makes Norway and Hong Kong, funnily enough, a

success. If you look, a number of people run things called the

Economic Freedom Index, they look at things like taxation to see how

easy it is to do business. If you look at that in the top ten

countries in the world, you regularly get Norway, Hong Kong,

Singapore, Chile. Scale, it is scale. Totally different. It is

nothing to do with that. 60 million versus five million. That is not to

take anything away from Singapore, but it is ...What Are you saying.

The European Union regularly comes way down it. Let me ask you this,

if Britain were to decide to leave the European Union, and let's

suppose it is an amicable-ish sort of separation, do you think the

rest of Europe could impose hare riches on British trade with

Europe? They can't. Not massively so, there is a trading ray genome

that is global under the trade organisation -- trading regime that

is under global trade organisations. If you want free access to the

single market, then you have to take all the regulations. We are

already saddled with most of those? You want to get rid of them. Unless

you comply with the safety standards, for example, according

to which we want our product, so make, for consumer safety. You will

have to have safety certificatation. We do that everywhere in the world.

Everywhere we sell from. The result of that is Britain sells more to

Germany than to China, Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa, Canada,

and Australia combined. Do you think the market would want to sell

to us, what do you think? Is it because the markets are so easily

accessible. The percentage of overseas trade done with Europe is

38% and falling every single year. You have made that point. Thank you

very much. The growing strength of dislike of

the European Union is generally held to be a political problem,

especially for the Conservatives. For many of them, the Prince across

the wart certificate Boris Johnson, Mayor of London, -- water is Boris

Johnson, Mayor of London, old skill and Bullingdon Club chum of David

Cameron. I have been talking to him. Does he think Britain will still be

in the EU in 2020. All of people who are pro-Europe

would, I think, be very, very reluctant to see us leave. All

together. That doesn't mean it won't happen? It doesn't. I think

what needs to happen now, is we need to have a new relationship

with the EU. And what people will say, before you put this to them, I

know what the objection will be. They will say this is not on the

table. Our partners will never allow this. They will never accept

this kind of renegotiation. So I just want to illustrate why I think

it is deliverable. First of all you better tell us what it is you think

our relationship should be? What it should be is a relationship where

he sheare off a lot of the expressances. I don't see a need

for us to be in the common fisheries policy. I don't see why

we have the Social Chapter affecting bits of employment law

that aren't really strictly speaking for us. Are you happy for

the Common Agricultural Policy? That should be wholly reformed or

repatrioted. We should leave the Common Agricultural Policy? In its

current form it is indefensible any way. The question would be either

out or staying within the EU, but not part of the Common Agricultural

Policy s the Common Fisheries Policy and one or two other things?

That's right. It would be membership of an outer teir. Do you

think David Cameron can deliver such a thing, a relationship where

we are within the European Union, but not part of the common

agricultural policy, the Common Fisheries Policy and the other bits

and pieces? I do. Shouldn't he tell us what his basic minimum is, then?

I'm sure he will reveal all. He has some great speech about this coming

up. Here is what I think he should say. What we want to do is end the

mystery and mistrust, and stop everybody blaming us for not

sharing the zeal of the euro- federates. We don't share that zeal.

We don't have any ambition to pool British sovereignty, to create this

a plural ld usle state, give us that relationship, you stop blaming

us for being the backmarkers, we stop moaning and we have a new

treaty. Based on the INGle market, which we put to the British people.

At that stage the Prime Minister would have to make it pretty clear

that he was going to campaign for that treaty. That would be the deal.

Obviously it would be if the people didn't want it, we would leave.

that is your view, why did you sign the called people's pledge, which

was for an in-out referendum? Because that is is what I'm

advocating. The people's pledge, that is your signature on it, the

people's pledge did not say this is into a reformed EU, or out all

together, it was in or out? But it goes without saying that if people

voted against the new relationship I'm decribing, we come out. You

have to frame it, one way or the other it has to be framed as an in-

out referendum. I'm trying to construct the circumstances in

which we would actually keep the benefits of a single market. Just

because you sign a pledge for an in-out referendum, it doesn't mean

you will automatically campaign to come out of the whole thing. I

don't happen to think that is the right position. Don't you think

this is matter casiwistical interpretation of your signature?

No, not at all, what this country needs is a chance for people to

debate the issue and a chance for the public to vote on whether to be

members of the EU. Here is the point, if they were to vote to come

out, we would be losing, in my view, my judgment, after write beg this

for an awfully long time, we would be losing substantial protections

for British business, for British enterprise, that eblg cyst within

the single market. You -- Exist within the single market. You are

want to go stay in the single market, and abide by all the

internal market directives? certainly there. Here is a whole

pile of them, the control of potato wart disease directive, the control

of carnation leaf? That would be a DG60, under the CAP, and it might

well be that we could reform that one. What about the one on African

horse sickness, do we abide by that one? That is a very nasty Business,

injure he moo, if you contracted African -- Jeremy, if you

contracted African horse sickness. I would contract anything! These

directives, the efficiency of boilers, for example, are we going

to have to carry on abiding by that? All these directives we would

still have to abide by? I certain lie think it is worth us staying in

the single currency. This is your idea of freedom, is it? The African

horse directive. You are asking me about all the detail. The African

horse disease, or the potato wart, I'm fairly confident would actually

turn out to be and come under the broad heading of the CAP. It may be

that we could derrogate from that kind of thing. Put yourself in the

position of a head of a multinational corporation, I'm sure

you have done it many times, would you invest in Britain if there was

any uncertainty about whether we would continue to be fully-pledged

members of the European Union? Business people don't generally

want to get involved in the political debate. I certainly think

one of the reasons why I take the position I do, that it would add to

people's, to business investors' uncertainty about the UK, in the

long-term. I think it might conceivably be a deterrent to

foreign direct investment. What might be? If they thought that we

were not going to be members of the internal market. That is why I

believe that's the right position for the country. So what you say to

people is, look, if you, the British people, don't want to be

members of the internal market, and you take the, you don't want any

directives at all, from any decisions at all to be made in

Brussels for the smoothing or easing of trade or removing of non-

tarrif barriers to trade, you want us to pull out completely. That

will certainly be on the table. They could, by voting against the

deal that I'm decribing, they would be voting to come out. Now, I don't

happen to think that would be the best way forward. I don't think

that would necessarily be the end of the world. People said, when we

didn't join the euro, that those buildings over there, the City of

London, would collapse, and that great big radioactive rats would

crawl out of the gutters and knaw the face of the last British banker,

it would be a disaster. It hasn't been a disaster for the country or

London. If there was a slightest possibility of David Cameron being

unsuccessful in his negotiation, there would bound to be a

possibility that we would have to leave the club? Several big ifs

there, but I don't think that is likely. Given all those ifs, would

you make an investment decision in Britain? I think business would

welcome clarity. We have been on this now, for so long, and we

haven't had a referendum since 1975. It is perfectly obvious that the

Europe question has got to be put to the British people. I think the

formula that I have come up with. What is the Europe question? Do you

want to be in it or not. Johnson thank you very much.

Just in case you are worried about contracting African horse sickness,

don't, you would indeed have to be a horse, a mule or donkey, or a

zebra, perhaps. The risk of the disease entering this country in

any legal trade it thought to be very small. How realistic are Boris

Johnson's plans for renegotiating the relationship with the EUU.

We're joined by the former -- EU, we're joined by the former Europe

Minister now. Supposing David Cameron said we want out of the

Common Agricultural Policy and various policies we don't like what

would the reaction be of the rest of Europe? I listened with great

attention to Mr Johnson, I know that he has a great sense of

humour! That is why I wonder if he is being serious. Because, on the

one hand, he explains to us that the British people are very

miserable in Europe. That it damages its sovereignty, and on the

other hand, he wants to renegotiate a treaty, only for the UK. Which

means that the UK is going to conclude a treaty with the UK. As

perhaps you know, a treaty is a contract between many people, or

countries, and I don't think that the Europeans, and especially the

French, I think, will accept this proposal. Can I ask you this

question, do you think the French would care if Britain decided to

leave the EU? I think that, well I'm not the interpreter, neither

are the French Government or the French people. But I think that the

feeling in Europe, by and large, is that it is time for the British

Government, I don't think the British people are so anti-European,

not as much so as the British Government, in my view. I think it

is time for the moment of truth, and to say that if the UK is still

in the EU, why? Because I think that Mr Johnson has lost his memory.

The history of Britain is European. If you look back to Geoffrey Howe,

the attorney general at that time, he said Europe is solidarity. He

said exactly in a famous quotes, "sovereignty is not like virginity",

either you have it or you have not. It can be shared. That is the

purpose of Europe. If Great Britain wants to build Europe alone, it

won't work, and it will be a shame for the British economy. If I can

add a word. Thank you very much indeed. Emma Reynolds is the shadow

Europe Minister, of the Labour Party. Will the Labour Party give

the British people a referendum? in or out? We don't think it is the

right time now to hold a referendum. Nobody is suggesting you do it

tomorrow? It will depend what happens with the rest of the

European Union. The eurozone will integrate more closely it remains

to be seen what the relationship between those who are outside the

eurozone, and those within the eurozone, will be. You heard Boris

Johnson say there were very specific things that he thought a

Conservative Government would wish to renegotiate with the rest of

Europe, agriculture, fisheries and so on. What would you like to

renegotiate? Certainly we would like to see a reform of the Common

Agricultural Policy. You wouldn't like to renegotiate anything?

he is proposing is totally unrealistic. I'm not interested in

what you think of his policies, I'm interested in what your policies

are? In Government we said we wanted to look at renegotiating

structural funds, European regional policy, but I certainly don't think

we want to repatriate things like employment and social legislation,

we don't want to repatriate other part of the...You Want to reclaim

British fisheries, or stop subsidising French farmers, you

don't want to do any that have? get money back from the CAP, we

would like to have reform on the CAP and give less money to that.

That is a cross-party thing. In order to repatriate the power you

would need the agreement of 26 other member states. The Common

Market, and the rest of the European Union, is based on a

compromise between those 27 member states. And if Britain tries to

unpick that, it will all unravel. David Cameron can't do it, it is

posturing? I think Boris Johnson is posturing, we will see what he

comes up with, his speech has been postponed several times, we will

see what he says. Where will we end up after another three or four

years? I think the shift in public opinion, and in business opinion,

in this country, is so fundamental and so great, that we are seeing

big changes in politics. I think that Cameron, whether he likes it

or not, will be forced into a referendum. I think he will do

everything he can to avoid an in- out referendum. But Labour will,

within a couple of days, will match the promise. I think a referendum

is coming, by 2016 there will be one. Whether it ends it or not, I

don't know, but the 17 European countries are moving towards a full

political European. We cannot go on that jouorny. Our relationship will

change fundamentally, whether it is as much as I want it to be, in a

few years time, I don't know. In the end that is where we are going.

You would welcome a referendum, on your side of the fence?

referendum is a distraction, but if the people of Britain want it we

should have it. Come the moment when the British people look at

what it would really mean to leave Europe, they will decide they don't

want to do it. They will decide they don't want the economic loss

of growth, they don't want to be cut off from the rest of Europe,

and they don't want to be alone in the world. Irvine Welsh, briefly,

if there is a referendum, would you be in favour of the people of

Scotland having a say? You would quite possibly have a scenario

whereby you have a British vote about membership of the EC, and

Scotland votes to stay in, and England votes to stay out. Then you

have a constitutional question, I mean, does England drag Scotland,

or is England de facto left leaving the union, and going it alone.

would have to man Hadrian's Wall, wouldn't we! There is still the

west loathe y'allian question, that is like the west and Lothian

question. Thank you very much. That's more

than enough for tonight. Kirsty is here tomorrow, until then, good

here tomorrow, until then, good night.

Hello there, there is nowhere near as much fog around overnight. It

will be a frosty start in the morning. Potentially icey in

Scotland as well. We have some sleet and snow around the central

belt moving northward, leaving behind some patchy fog in the

afternoon. That will be affecting the vale of work, potentially. Much

more fog in the morning, most lifting. We will see some sunshine

developing. Pretty good across the Midland, except for the cold. East

Anglia too. Sunshine across the southern counties for a while. Then

the cloud increasing and a few spots of rain or drizzle arriving

in the south west later in the day. It is here we will have the highest

temperatures. Some of the rain thrifting into South Wales, crisp

and cold and bright and frosty. An unusually mild start to the day

across Northern Ireland. Thanks to the cloud we have at the moment.

The sunshine will come through fairly quickly. A lot of cloud for

Scotland, and here some snowfall. Early in the morning, as much as

five centimeters around the Glasgow area, potentially, working

northwards to Inverness. You can see how the temperature change from

Thursday to Friday as it turns milder across the north but wetter

too. That story is mirrored greater across the south. The low