21/01/2013 Newsnight


21/01/2013

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Tonight, after the could have fips and the wreckage of the Algerian

:00:13.:00:17.

hostage crisis, the Prime Minister sets out his plan for fighting

:00:17.:00:20.

international terrorism. More than ever this evolving threat demands

:00:20.:00:25.

an international response. It must be one that is tough, intelligent,

:00:25.:00:29.

patient, and based on strong international partnerships.

:00:29.:00:34.

It sounded like an important change of strategy, but what will it

:00:34.:00:38.

amount to in practice? We will hear from diplomats, soldiers and

:00:38.:00:43.

analysts whether Africa is the new frontline in an endless campaign.

:00:43.:00:48.

From relatives mourning those they loved. But we actually had to find

:00:48.:00:52.

out for ourselves, we were not given any official information. It

:00:52.:00:58.

was through Facebook of all things that we found out of Kenny's demise.

:00:58.:01:04.

We are in Mali, on the streets of newly-liberated Diabaly.

:01:04.:01:07.

TRANSLATION: We heard the helicopters, so did the rebels,

:01:07.:01:10.

most of them ran to hide in the houses nearby, afterwards the

:01:10.:01:15.

rebels told us they just want to impose Sharia Law here. Plus, in

:01:15.:01:20.

Syria, where foren intervention is off the international agenda,

:01:20.:01:24.

devastation and apparent normality, just minutes away from each other

:01:24.:01:34.
:01:34.:01:42.

in the city of Homs. The final death toll in the

:01:42.:01:46.

Algerian oil siege is unknown, it could be 48 dead, at least three

:01:46.:01:49.

British. The Prime Minister in a tone some found reminiscent of Tony

:01:49.:01:55.

Blair after 9/11, promised a long, hard fight and an intelligent

:01:55.:01:58.

political response. To the terrorist threat against British

:01:58.:02:02.

workers interests and allies. And what might that all mean, and with

:02:02.:02:05.

Barack Obama telling Americans on his Inaugration Day that a decade

:02:06.:02:09.

of war is now over, what kind of leadership can we now expect. We

:02:09.:02:14.

begin our coverage on the new frontline of the conflict on Mali,

:02:14.:02:17.

where French troops push back Islamist rebels from the town of

:02:18.:02:21.

Diabaly, the beginning of what could be a long and difficulty

:02:21.:02:24.

conflict. We report on a day of triumph for the French, and

:02:24.:02:30.

setbacks for the rebels. France takes another step deeper

:02:30.:02:36.

into this conflict. Crossing here into what was rebel-held territory

:02:36.:02:41.

in central Mali. We have come with them to the down of Diabaly,

:02:41.:02:44.

controlled until this weekend by Islamist militants, some may still

:02:44.:02:50.

be in the area. The French quickly begin to check

:02:50.:02:56.

the nearby houses. But the population seems relaxed now. And

:02:56.:03:01.

relieved. They are keen to show us the

:03:01.:03:08.

wreckage of their week-long ordeal. TRANSLATION: These are pick-up

:03:08.:03:13.

trucks, destroyed by French helicopters, two Jihadists were

:03:13.:03:18.

killed here. We find seven more charred vehicles nearby. They were

:03:18.:03:22.

hit with great precision, French Special Forces presumably helping

:03:22.:03:29.

to direct the air strikes. TRANSLATION: We heard the

:03:29.:03:34.

helicopters, so did the rebels, most of them ran to hide in the

:03:34.:03:39.

houses nearby. Afterwards the rebels told us they just want to

:03:39.:03:43.

impose Sharia Law here. What do you think of Sharia Law? TRANSLATION:

:03:43.:03:51.

We don't want it. It doesn't suit us here. The Islamists chose to

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attack this town for a reason. This is it, the army garrison, packed

:03:57.:04:02.

with weapons, and not nearly as well guarded as you might expect.

:04:02.:04:07.

The rebels, some suggest more than 100 of them, seized the town in a

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day. The Islamists have left now, French air strikes clearly did

:04:11.:04:15.

their job. But before they left the rebels had every chance to loot

:04:15.:04:19.

this huge arsenal, giving them plenty of weapons for the war ahead.

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Right now the battle here is over, but Mali's hit-and-run insurgency

:04:25.:04:31.

may be just beginning. So who were the men who came to

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Diabaly? We found only one unidentifiable body. But more have

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been buried in town. The rebels' survivors withdrew across these

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fields heading east, according to the French. After a year of defeats,

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the mally army seems keen to chase after them now. TRANSLATION:

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around us it is fine, with the help of French troops it is reassuring.

:04:55.:04:59.

But we must search and search for more, there may still be a few

:04:59.:05:07.

pockets of enemy resistance. French politely insist they are

:05:07.:05:11.

keen to let Mali's demoralised army do its share of the fighting here.

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But from what we have learned in Diabaly today, it is clear this

:05:14.:05:20.

army is part of the problem. This soldier, Dioncounda Traore, has

:05:21.:05:25.

agreed to show me why, he's based at the garrison, and hid in town

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when it was overrun. The Islamists came to his home here

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to look for him, and trashed his belongings. He says some of the

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rebels are foreign Jihadist, but he knows others are former colleagues

:05:40.:05:45.

from his own army unit. Do you know the names of these people, would

:05:45.:05:52.

you recognise them? TRANSLATION: Yes, they defected last year when

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the Tuareg started their rebellion. When they came back last week they

:05:56.:06:00.

were Islamist, I think they are just after money. People believe

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the rebels are rich. Outside another soldier confirmed the story.

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TRANSLATION: Yes, many of our comrades became our enemies, now we

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will hunt them down and kill them all.

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The threat posed by foreign Islamist militants is real here,

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but the fact that some of the men who appear to have attacked this

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town were actually former members of the Mali army is a reminder of

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how many of this country's problems are home-grown.

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No simple solutions here, then, for Mali's complex mercury rebellion.

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-- murky rebellion. I'm joined now by the editor of the

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BBC of a frik ka service, which broadcasts too in French to Africa.

:06:51.:06:56.

Can Mali actually be stablised, do you think? That is the difficult

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and complex question to answer now. What the French and the mally army,

:07:00.:07:05.

and later on the west African troops, will be doing, is to at

:07:05.:07:09.

least secure the south. So far that is what they are doing, the north

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is still under the control of the insurgent s, the Islamist, part of

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it. The other answer is political, if you go south of Mali where there

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is a President, this President is really fragile in his ruling. It is

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an interim President, put there by the west African leaders, because

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there was a coup in March, right before the democratic elections,

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and then you have the north issues, which are not just the Islamist

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insurgent issue, it is a Tuareg issue, it is a Malian issue. Do the

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mallyian Tuareg have pushed out the Islamist insurgents to be -- will

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the mallyian army who have pushed out the Islamist terrorists be able

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to solve the Tuareg issue, which is more complicated than the Islamist

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issue. I wonder what is at stake for the neighbours, I don't just

:08:11.:08:15.

mean Algeria and Morocco, but those to the south, it must be a

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difficult situation for awful them? That is why the west African army

:08:20.:08:24.

wanted to go in. They can't go in, because it is complicated. If you

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take the Tuareg issue, it is not only Mali, it is also Moritania,

:08:29.:08:33.

which doesn't want to be involved at all in the mally operation. Then

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you have Niger, which has its own Tuareg problems, where they were

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able there to sort out the issues there. Then you have all the small

:08:44.:08:54.
:08:54.:08:55.

countries, which are all stable but in a fragile state. They are all

:08:55.:09:00.

worried? About the Islamist insurgents, if you push them out of

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Mali they might find somewhere else in there, which is as vast as the

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European continent, where will they go next? Because Algeria is

:09:09.:09:14.

blocking its border, then it would be difficult for other countries by

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themselves to secure their own desert area. We will pick up some

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of those issues in a moment. Relatives of those missing after

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terrorists stormed the gas plant in Algeria have spent an agonising few

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days trying to get information, and sadly, for some, their worst fears

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have been realised. The White Tiger family found out about their son

:09:41.:09:46.

and brother's death through Facebook. We met up and asked about

:09:47.:09:51.

the circumstances of finding out about their brother's killing.

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know now what's happened to Kenny, and we actually had to find out for

:10:00.:10:03.

our selves, we were not given any official information. It was

:10:03.:10:08.

through Facebook, of all things, that we found south of Kenny's

:10:08.:10:11.

demise. It was my daughter found it on

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Facebook, a message from an Algerian co-worker. So, if you like

:10:17.:10:25.

a, an unofficial confirmation, you didn't get anything official from

:10:25.:10:30.

the authorities? The police came last night and informed us that

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what was on Facebook was true, that Kenny had been, he was executed.

:10:37.:10:42.

Can I say before we go on, I'm very sorry for your loss, and I'm very

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grateful for you speaking to us in these circumstances. Can I ask you

:10:45.:10:51.

what you feel about the way that the situation was handled in

:10:51.:10:57.

Algeria? Well, it is just the way life is, I'm afraid. I don't hold

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any grudges against Algeria and the army or anything, that's the way

:11:03.:11:06.

they work. That's their system. They weren't bothered about the

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hostages as such, they just wanted to get the camp cleared of all the

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terrorists. That was the main objective. As far as I could see.

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Had Kenny been working out there for some time? It must be about

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five years, I think, he has been working in Algeria. And in that

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time had he expressed any concerns about safety, about how their

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safety was, and how they were protected out there? That sort of

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thing never bothered Kenny. He has worked all over the world, he just

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didn't think about it. So he was well used to working in difficult

:11:46.:11:53.

places, and trouble spots? Yes, more or less. He has worked all

:11:53.:11:59.

over Africa, Zambia, South Africa, Russia's been around. He knew what

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the game was all about. What was the job that he did? He was

:12:03.:12:09.

actually he went out there as a fitter to trade, with Babcock &

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Wilcox but worked himself up. His official title was planning manager,

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project manager. He was head hunted, he was obviously very good at his

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job, he was head hunted for a few jobs. In the light of what's

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happened, and we hear this morning that there is quite a high death

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toll amongst the hostages, what are your feelings about what needs to

:12:33.:12:37.

be done to protect men and women that are out there in similar

:12:37.:12:43.

circumstances in the future? honestly don't think you could do

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anything. Not any more than was done already. They had security

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guards, but you can't guard every installation all over the world,

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just because of these fanatics. If they are going to attack, they will

:12:58.:13:08.
:13:08.:13:09.

do it, you know. What has happened in Algeria and Mali is all at the

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same time an international incident, a security to energy -- security

:13:13.:13:17.

threat to energy companies, and danger to local people, and a

:13:17.:13:21.

threat to Governments. With David Cameron promising a response that

:13:21.:13:25.

is tough, intelligent and patient, and based on international

:13:25.:13:28.

partnerships. We're going to assess some of the options open to Mr

:13:28.:13:31.

Cameron and other Government leaders. It sounds like it is a

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very big change for Mr Cameron, is it, in terms of strategy? You would

:13:35.:13:39.

certainly think so, from the statement he gave in the palace of

:13:39.:13:43.

Westminster today. He was quite explicit about a number of themes.

:13:43.:13:49.

You got a sense from him of a certain focus, or priority that was

:13:49.:13:53.

once really dominating our security considerations giving way to

:13:53.:13:59.

another. That was articulated quite clearly in the Commons. This attack

:13:59.:14:01.

underlines the threat that terrorist groups pose to the

:14:01.:14:06.

countries and peoples of that region, and to our citizens, our

:14:06.:14:10.

companies and our interests too. Four years ago the principal threat

:14:10.:14:13.

from Islamist extremism came from the Afghanistan and Pakistan region.

:14:13.:14:18.

A huge amount has been done to address and reduce the scale of

:14:18.:14:22.

that threat. Where as at one point three-quarters of the most serious

:14:22.:14:26.

terrorist plots against the UK had links to that region, today this

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has reduced to less than half. Listening to that, you could think

:14:31.:14:36.

that he was suggesting that as UK forces draw down in Afghanistan

:14:36.:14:40.

over the next year or year-and-a- half, the UK will increasingly be

:14:40.:14:44.

ready to put its shoulder to the wheel in North Africa? We heard

:14:44.:14:52.

from Brahimi a few moments ago, about what is at stake in Africa.

:14:52.:14:55.

Could Britain play a part in shaping the whole regional

:14:55.:15:00.

strategy? It could play a part. But there are all sorts of barriers to

:15:00.:15:04.

how extensive and influential a part it could play. This draw down

:15:04.:15:08.

in Afghanistan isn't happening quite as quickly as the ramping up

:15:08.:15:11.

you might want in North Africa if you were really going to put troops

:15:11.:15:15.

on the ground. That very point is clearly one of some sensitivity to

:15:15.:15:18.

Downing Street. They are not out to send hundreds of troops in there

:15:18.:15:22.

straight away. They are trying to work to build up relationships,

:15:22.:15:24.

diplomatic, intelligence, military- to-military, the sort of thing they

:15:24.:15:28.

have been doing in quite a few African countries. There are some

:15:28.:15:32.

really difficult challenges here. Most particularly, the attitudes of

:15:32.:15:36.

the host Government, the all goreian Government, we saw their

:15:36.:15:40.

attitude -- Algerian Government, we saw their attitude to those trying

:15:40.:15:44.

to get involved in the negotiating and political level in the crisis.

:15:44.:15:49.

They will be very reluctant to take in the outside forces, and France

:15:49.:15:54.

and others have stronger security ties with them. Libya, of course,

:15:54.:15:58.

NATO very involved there in overthrowing the Gaddafi regime,

:15:58.:16:02.

but they have been reluctant to accept military advisers from NATO

:16:02.:16:06.

countries. It is a delicate atmosphere operating there even, it

:16:06.:16:12.

would be hard for the UK to put its very limited resources, diplomatic,

:16:12.:16:17.

intelligence whatever into this sensitive scenario. Lots of legal

:16:17.:16:21.

potential difficulties too. On the intelligence side, the Algerian

:16:21.:16:25.

Government, the way it treats terrorist subjects, quite strict

:16:25.:16:30.

rules on what intelligence we could share with them. Where is the

:16:30.:16:34.

United States on this? The US appears ready to look at a great

:16:34.:16:37.

many international crises that develop now from the sidelines.

:16:37.:16:41.

President Obama was inaugurated today for his second term, and this

:16:41.:16:45.

sense of his focus so much being on the domestic, was quite clearly in

:16:45.:16:50.

the peach -- clear in the speech he gave at his inauguration. This

:16:50.:16:55.

generation of Americans has been tested by crises that steeled our

:16:55.:17:03.

resolve and proved our resilience. A decade of war is now ending. An

:17:03.:17:09.

economic recovery has begun. clearly he wants to keep the focus

:17:09.:17:13.

domestic, economic, social. He doesn't want to involve himself in

:17:13.:17:17.

new wars, we know that from the past year. That has implications

:17:17.:17:21.

for North Africa, it also has implications for Iran, and the

:17:21.:17:26.

world much more widely, siria. Potentially a very significant

:17:26.:17:29.

statement from Syria. Potentially a very significant statement from

:17:29.:17:33.

President Obama today. We have a former UK ambassador in Washington

:17:33.:17:38.

with us, we have the a former US Ambassador for the United Nations,

:17:38.:17:44.

we have an Algerian born political analyst, he advises companies that

:17:44.:17:50.

operate in the region. And the CEO of Keyhaven, who specialise in

:17:50.:17:55.

crisis management, former director of defence management in the MoD.

:17:55.:18:02.

Your roots are in the region, how serious do you think the issue s or

:18:02.:18:08.

is it anything less than banditry? It is a serious threat to the

:18:08.:18:11.

region and international security. You have a region that is

:18:11.:18:14.

increasingly unstable as a result of some of the power vacuums have

:18:14.:18:18.

taken place, or that are currently in place in Libya and northern Mali.

:18:18.:18:24.

You have terrorists, or Jihadi groups have been able to utilise

:18:24.:18:28.

this new safe haven, this vast territory that is uncontrolled, and

:18:28.:18:34.

poorly monitored, in terms of surveillance, by the states, and to

:18:34.:18:37.

utilise that, not only for financial gain through the drug

:18:37.:18:43.

trade, and through arms proliferation, but also through the

:18:43.:18:49.

type of techniques we have seen now in these kinds of hostage crises.

:18:49.:18:54.

You were also involved in the threat assessment business, we have

:18:54.:18:57.

heard everything from cigarette snugling, drug running, the arms

:18:57.:19:02.

business, to just making a profit out of hostages. It is difficult to

:19:02.:19:05.

distinguish that from what seems to be happening now, which we are also

:19:05.:19:12.

told there are links to the establishment of a Kalafate

:19:12.:19:16.

throughout north Africa. Is this a quantitatively different threat

:19:16.:19:20.

from just the banditry? It indicate the number of shared incentives,

:19:20.:19:25.

and what we will see is a kol alllessing and breaking apart of

:19:25.:19:29.

different movements. The analogy I would like to use is it is like a

:19:29.:19:33.

balloon, you squeeze it in one place and you get an expansion

:19:33.:19:38.

somewhere else. Going back to late 2001, the operation in Afghanistan,

:19:38.:19:42.

you had people seeking refuge in Pakistan and Yemen, you squeeze

:19:42.:19:46.

them in Yemen and then Somalia, that is getting better, and they go

:19:46.:19:49.

elsewhere. This is a concerted effort working with other

:19:49.:19:52.

Governments, if necessary behind the scenes. The incentives for the

:19:52.:19:56.

bad people are many, and the interests are many. Do you think

:19:56.:20:00.

there is an ideolgical underpinning to some of this? To some of this.

:20:00.:20:05.

To a certain extent. 0 these groups are using this narrative to --

:20:05.:20:09.

these groups are using the narrative to create a network in

:20:09.:20:14.

the region. They have been able to attract militants from Boko Haram,

:20:14.:20:19.

from Nigeria, a narrative that bring these groups to a shared

:20:19.:20:22.

interests. If this is such a big threat, shouldn't we have seen it

:20:23.:20:30.

coming? Absolutely. I think it was predictable as an outcome of the

:20:30.:20:34.

Libya vacuum. This is the underbelly of the Arab Spring. You

:20:34.:20:39.

are seeing a rise up, after the end of the Cold War, of all these

:20:39.:20:43.

tensions coming forward. The fact that the Tuaregs were heavily armed

:20:43.:20:46.

to protect Gaddafi, and then decided to go home, should have

:20:46.:20:50.

been a trigger point for stronger international intervention in the

:20:50.:20:55.

north to try to make sure that we nipped this in the bud. We were,

:20:55.:20:59.

the world was looking elsewhere, and really we have a triple tragedy

:20:59.:21:04.

going on, the Tuaregs moving in with arms, the Islamists taking

:21:04.:21:12.

over, and the Government being over thrown in Bamako, it is a perfect

:21:12.:21:16.

storm and the people of Mali pay the price. We heard President Obama

:21:16.:21:19.

making what was largely a big domestic speech on his Inaugration

:21:19.:21:24.

Day, I wondered if it was a case of the American administration, the

:21:24.:21:27.

British, tired of war in Afghanistan, not really wanting to

:21:27.:21:33.

know about this. If it was right under our noses? I wouldn't read

:21:33.:21:39.

too much into the lack of a long and foreign policy speech on an

:21:39.:21:43.

inaugural speech. It was a short speech, there was a few sentences

:21:43.:21:46.

about democracy throughout Africa and the need to make sure we

:21:46.:21:49.

address the problems there, and finish the war. We are tired of war,

:21:49.:21:53.

we have been at war for over ten years in Afghanistan, and finally

:21:53.:21:57.

got out of Iraq. The American people are very wary of it. No

:21:57.:22:01.

President in his inaugural will talk much about it. President Obama

:22:01.:22:05.

understands the need to make sure there is not another safe haven for

:22:05.:22:09.

Al-Qaeda in the heart of Africa. I think you will see a stronger

:22:09.:22:13.

action on this. But don't expect much in the big speeches. I think

:22:13.:22:17.

you will see him moving forward on many of these fronts. How serious

:22:17.:22:22.

do you view this, and is it serious enough that, despite the reluck

:22:22.:22:25.

tannance on the British Government's part, -- reluctance on

:22:25.:22:29.

the British Government's part, we will see boots on the ground at

:22:29.:22:32.

some point in the region? If there are going to be boots on the ground

:22:32.:22:37.

at some point, there must be a very clear military objective for the

:22:37.:22:40.

action. One of the things we have learned from Afghanistan, is troops

:22:40.:22:43.

without a clear political plan are a west of time. That is why we have

:22:44.:22:47.

not made the -- a waste of time. That is why we haven't made the

:22:47.:22:55.

progress in Afghanistan we would have liked to make. We had Iraq a

:22:55.:23:00.

Millerry -- military push and it led to the war of unintended

:23:00.:23:05.

consequences. What about the French? Is it just a short-term

:23:05.:23:08.

military operation to hold the line until the African troops turn up,

:23:08.:23:12.

or are they intending to create a political ring in which there can

:23:12.:23:16.

be some kind of negotiation between the Tuaregs in the north, who want

:23:16.:23:20.

independence, or autonomy, and the Government in the south. This is

:23:20.:23:23.

not yet clear, until these things are clear, you shouldn't even think

:23:24.:23:28.

of putting boots on the ground. That is, you put your finger on the

:23:28.:23:37.

nub of it. There are 2,000 French troops on the ground, you have

:23:37.:23:41.

boots on the ground. The French are going to find it very difficult to

:23:41.:23:46.

come in very late with very few troops. They have 2,000, they said

:23:46.:23:49.

maybe 4,000. So they are in there. I think it is going to get very

:23:49.:23:55.

messy. What should have happened is the US, France, the international

:23:55.:24:01.

community could have reinforced the mally Government to address the --

:24:01.:24:06.

Mali Government to address the Tuareg initial phases of the

:24:06.:24:11.

military and get immediately into negotiations. The Tuaregs have

:24:11.:24:15.

tired over decades from Bamako of more development in the north that

:24:15.:24:18.

have never come to fruition. What you have to have is the French who

:24:18.:24:23.

need help, the west Africans come in, there is not many capable west

:24:23.:24:27.

Africans they can fight, they can certainly help secure peace. It

:24:27.:24:33.

will eventually be turned over to a UN operation. Kprair this to the

:24:33.:24:37.

Ivory Coast, when -- compare this to the Ivory Coast when they had

:24:37.:24:40.

17,000 troops there and the French had more troops going in, it will

:24:40.:24:45.

be messy before it gets better. terms of the messiness, you talked

:24:45.:24:48.

about presumably having a negotiation between a Government in

:24:48.:24:50.

the mally capital and the taurs, except this is a Government that

:24:50.:24:56.

came to power because of military coup, and the one-eyed cigarette

:24:56.:25:00.

dialer who is responsible for this is not -- dealer who is responsible

:25:00.:25:06.

for this is not able to negotiate? This has as many layers as a club

:25:06.:25:10.

sandwich. There isn't a threat for the west, there are threats. What

:25:10.:25:16.

we faced in Algeria was a sovereign state with a capable military force

:25:16.:25:20.

and Special Forces has been against oil and gas installations where

:25:20.:25:24.

Brits are working who have been tragically killed, that was a

:25:24.:25:26.

specific British interest, go to Mali and you have a failed state.

:25:26.:25:30.

It is not clear they can be put back together again. The threat is

:25:30.:25:36.

different in Algeria from in Mali, from elsewhere in the countries.

:25:36.:25:40.

The one thing we have to watch out for, where there is another British

:25:40.:25:45.

interest, does it infect, more than you refer to, Nigeria? Can we talk

:25:45.:25:51.

about the options, particularly the military option right now. You have

:25:51.:25:57.

got 40 armed people, apparently, going to attack a remote plant,

:25:57.:26:02.

with 6600 civil -- 600 civilian workers under a good security

:26:02.:26:06.

apparatus, it is hard to see how you can protect these exposed

:26:06.:26:09.

plants from people who don't care how many they kill or how they die

:26:10.:26:13.

themselves? I agree, there is no such thing as perfect and complete

:26:13.:26:16.

protection. What all the different oil and gas interests will need to

:26:16.:26:19.

be reassured about is the continuing and ined effort to

:26:20.:26:26.

protect their people. In the short- term they can increase promises

:26:26.:26:30.

security, they can clampdown on people's movement, the engineers

:26:30.:26:34.

going to and fro. Come back to your point, if you have a really

:26:34.:26:37.

determined bunch of people who have planned the operation for some time,

:26:37.:26:40.

they have arms and weapons on their side, there is not much that can

:26:40.:26:45.

stand in their way. But, there is more which can be done. My own

:26:45.:26:48.

personal experience relates to some of the borders, physically the

:26:48.:26:52.

borders between the countries. I remember for instance, for example,

:26:52.:26:56.

two or three years ago on the border between Algeria and Libya,

:26:56.:27:00.

and going down to view a border crossing point, deep in The Sahara.

:27:00.:27:04.

What was interesting to me is the fact that place closed up at night.

:27:04.:27:09.

One could see hundreds of sets of footprints, illegal movement across

:27:09.:27:12.

the border. More can be done in a cheap and cheerful way. Not to

:27:12.:27:18.

solve the problem, but at least to bear down and make the borders less

:27:18.:27:22.

porous. I wondered whether the context of this is, is there an

:27:22.:27:27.

African solution to what is fundamentally an African problem?

:27:28.:27:31.

Ultimately the Africans are going to need to solve these problems.

:27:31.:27:35.

The problem is right now in the short-term crises, they don't have

:27:35.:27:39.

the military capacity to move. The UN has authorised 3,000 troops to

:27:39.:27:43.

go into northern Mali, recognising in the same resolution that they

:27:43.:27:47.

are not capable of doing so. To the hostage crisis in Algeria, first of

:27:47.:27:51.

all, our hearts go out to those who have lost their lives, it is a

:27:51.:27:55.

tragedy. But you are going to watch obviously heightened security

:27:55.:28:00.

around any kind of foreign oil installation. But you will watch,

:28:00.:28:04.

and the all goreians have a history of a counter punch on these kinds

:28:04.:28:08.

of things, they will go after many of these militants, it is likely to

:28:08.:28:15.

get blody. Ultimately you will have to have kiebd -- bloody, ultimately

:28:15.:28:22.

vul to have some kind of engagment on these issues. We know withhold

:28:22.:28:28.

hold, he went to Algeria and didn't apologise, quite, and said France

:28:28.:28:34.

had done some terrible things. And the UN mandate stipulated this was

:28:34.:28:37.

an African problem to be solved by Africans, revolving the situation

:28:37.:28:44.

was a job for them, and that they hadn't learned a single lesson. Is

:28:44.:28:48.

it a post colonial problem so it is difficult for outsiders to get

:28:48.:28:52.

involved? It depends who you are asking. One thing for sure, the UN

:28:52.:28:55.

mandate and the plan to give Africans the full control of the

:28:55.:29:03.

situation, and have them intervene in Mali, came too late. The delay,

:29:03.:29:07.

which the African force could only intervene in September, and said it

:29:07.:29:11.

could only intervene in September. No western powers stepped up to the

:29:11.:29:16.

plate, like France, for example, to facilitate their preparation for an

:29:16.:29:21.

operation. That delay gave these terror groups,s they Jihadi groups,

:29:21.:29:26.

the window and mandate they needed, to prepare -- these Jihadi groups,

:29:26.:29:31.

the window and mandate they needed to prepare for the assault on

:29:31.:29:35.

Bamako. One of the key things France should have done was put

:29:35.:29:38.

more power, and western states, more power in the hands of African

:29:38.:29:43.

state. What do you think of that? The trouble of this, I will go back

:29:43.:29:47.

on something that was said, you can empower the UN to authorise

:29:47.:29:51.

thousands of west African troops to come in and hold the line, but they

:29:51.:29:54.

actually aren't militarily capable and don't have the logistics to do

:29:54.:29:58.

it. Time and time again they show themselves want anything this

:29:58.:30:01.

respect. Doesn't that say to the French you have to do something now,

:30:01.:30:05.

your point is we have to figure out what we are doing there politically,

:30:05.:30:08.

presumably, as seen from the Elysee, this is something that can't wait

:30:08.:30:13.

and you have to get in? Ten or 15 years Agatha might have been an

:30:13.:30:18.

automatic response on the part of the French. I think at the moment

:30:18.:30:22.

budget cuts, plus colonial sensibilities make this a much more

:30:22.:30:26.

difficult thing for the French to do than it might have been a

:30:26.:30:31.

generation ago. That is one of the reasons you have this gap. Heaven

:30:31.:30:37.

knows, 2,500 French troops, what difference in the long-term will

:30:37.:30:41.

that make? I think the colonial problem you asked about a moment

:30:41.:30:46.

ago is an on going responsibility to clean up certain problems. You

:30:46.:30:51.

had Sierra Leone in the 1990s, the British went in there. You had most

:30:51.:30:54.

recently the French in the Ivory Coast, we do Liberia. And since the

:30:55.:30:58.

Africans are not yet capable of doing so, we are trying to train

:30:58.:31:02.

them and get them up to speed, but it is another 10-20 years away, we

:31:02.:31:07.

will always get called in. We wait too long to do it. In this case had

:31:07.:31:10.

we reinforced the Government and got them up the north, perhaps,

:31:10.:31:15.

this could have been nipped in the bud. But so long as there are these

:31:15.:31:22.

crises and the Africans are not capable of addressing them, the

:31:22.:31:25.

colonial challenge is it is hard to stand on the sidelines when you

:31:25.:31:30.

have a human tragedy. You will see this going on. They were asked to

:31:30.:31:35.

go in? They went in unilaterally. Do you see really room for

:31:35.:31:40.

negotiation there? We talked about negotiating and the problems of the

:31:40.:31:43.

Tuareg people and so on, but the actual people doing the killing, it

:31:43.:31:47.

seems quite difficult to understand how you would negotiate anything

:31:47.:31:50.

that they would want that you could possibly give them? A couple of

:31:50.:31:54.

things. Somebody who has put this pair of boots in the ground on a

:31:55.:31:59.

number of place, partly towards your point, Sir Christopher, the

:31:59.:32:02.

military on its own can never be a solution on its own. Point number

:32:02.:32:06.

two, to your point about the negotiation, yes, one must take a

:32:06.:32:11.

longer term stance. Whilst there are people who went be swayed there

:32:11.:32:14.

are people with different incentives and perhaps could see

:32:14.:32:19.

where power shifts and could reorientate themselves to a more

:32:19.:32:25.

benign way of living. This is not a totally homogeneous group, you have

:32:25.:32:28.

mandatory smugglers, you have Tuaregs who want autonomy or

:32:28.:32:32.

independence, you have the Jihadists moved by ideolgical moat

:32:32.:32:37.

vagues. The purpose of negotiation is to split off, to divide this

:32:37.:32:43.

coalition of groups. They don't have a lot instrinsically in common,

:32:43.:32:49.

and try to -- intrinsicly in common and try to do deals with them.

:32:49.:32:55.

Algeria pushed for that position early on to prefer the political

:32:55.:32:59.

solution and negotiate with the groups that distinguish themselves

:32:59.:33:03.

with others, and who had genuine grievances in the context of Mali,

:33:03.:33:07.

for example, to differentiate them from other groups operating from

:33:07.:33:10.

the 1990s in Algeria and elsewhere, with the Jihadi network. It is

:33:10.:33:12.

important to make that point, I think.

:33:12.:33:20.

Thank you all very much. To another significant part of this

:33:20.:33:25.

arc of instability, stretching across Afghanistan, Syria. Barack

:33:25.:33:30.

Obama's leadership, or some would say lack of it, has come under fire

:33:30.:33:33.

in Washington, including the Washington Post newspaper. There is

:33:33.:33:38.

no sign of direct action in that conflict, despite the daily

:33:38.:33:44.

killings and misery. Almost a year ago the Syrian forces began a

:33:44.:33:49.

sustained attack on Homs to drive out opposition fighters. We

:33:49.:33:52.

reported last year, and we have returned to find out how it has

:33:52.:34:00.

changed today. Some of the heaviest fighting of Syria's war happened

:34:00.:34:06.

here. This neighbourhood, Baba Amr, came to symbolise a brutal conflict.

:34:06.:34:09.

A ferocious Government offensive, after the opposition took up

:34:09.:34:13.

positions here, was an assault on an entire community. Now, nearly

:34:13.:34:19.

one year on, life is slowly returning to Baba Amr.

:34:19.:34:24.

Rubbish collectors are on the job. A small sign the Government is back

:34:24.:34:34.
:34:34.:34:39.

on the street. That some families are starting to come home. I asked

:34:39.:34:49.
:34:49.:34:51.

him how life was here? He said it couldn't be better.

:34:51.:34:54.

Stealing an anxious look at the soldiers escorting us.

:34:54.:35:00.

A repair shop is back in business. It is not much of a bicycle, but

:35:01.:35:06.

the man made it work. It is what life is like here.

:35:06.:35:09.

TRANSLATION: Services are very good, before life was more difficult. But

:35:09.:35:16.

now things are getting better day by day. It is still a fragile calm.

:35:16.:35:24.

But good enough for children to play hopscotch on the treat --

:35:24.:35:27.

street. Even they don't take notice when guns go off in the distance.

:35:27.:35:33.

It is part of their life now. Scenes like this make you wonder,

:35:33.:35:43.
:35:43.:35:45.

what's it like to grow up here? The opposition is still present, still

:35:45.:35:55.
:35:55.:35:56.

fighting in other parts of Homs. (gunfire) Even in areas closer to

:35:56.:36:03.

the city centre, it is like a ghost town. The battle for Homs isn't

:36:03.:36:08.

over. No-one's really winning, no- one's really closing. When we came

:36:08.:36:12.

here last spring this was no man's land, it still is. The Government

:36:12.:36:18.

on this side, this is the historic old city. It has been under siege

:36:18.:36:23.

for months. You can hear the crackle of gunfire right now.

:36:23.:36:27.

Opposition fighters lie down these lanes, but so do civilians, trapped

:36:27.:36:34.

in the middle. The old city has long been cherished by the people

:36:34.:36:39.

of Homs. Look at it now. We couldn't travel in, this video

:36:39.:36:45.

posted by activists on YouTube shows the toll a year-long siege

:36:45.:36:50.

has taken on Homs's heritage. And the people who still live here, in

:36:50.:36:57.

dire conditions. Aid agencies have been trying to get in for months.

:36:57.:37:01.

Just minutes away, it feels like a different city. Even hard to

:37:02.:37:06.

believe there is a war. Most of the people who live here back the

:37:06.:37:11.

Government. It is predominantly Alawite, the same sect as President

:37:11.:37:20.

Assad. Al-Mashei Pizzeria seems to be doing fine.

:37:20.:37:23.

The owner tells me in areas loyal to the Government, life is good.

:37:23.:37:30.

Even here, he says, they feel the effects of the war.

:37:30.:37:34.

TRANSLATION: Not a month goes by without me having to close for

:37:34.:37:37.

three or four days, either there is no gas, people aren't going out, or

:37:37.:37:46.

because of the rockets. And there's a place to complain. At

:37:46.:37:50.

the governor's office, local people air their grievances to the man in

:37:50.:37:55.

charge. This mantles the Governor of Several requests, the most

:37:55.:38:02.

important is bread, plus gas, fuel, water. It covers pretty well

:38:02.:38:10.

everything. The governor reassures them their needs will be met. Then

:38:10.:38:16.

it is my turn to ask questions. I put it to him that he's running a

:38:16.:38:21.

divided city? TRANSLATION: Can you judge the situation of Homs by

:38:21.:38:26.

looking at a few kilometres, a couple of neighbourhoods, Homs is a

:38:26.:38:30.

big province, like the size of Holland, if you couldn't visit one

:38:30.:38:38.

street, does that mean all of Homs is troubled? The areas that the

:38:38.:38:40.

streets where there is still trouble and fighters, what are you

:38:40.:38:44.

planning to do, are you going to push in there as well? As in you

:38:44.:38:50.

did in Baba Amr to clear the I can't remember? TRANSLATION:

:38:50.:38:55.

didn't do anything in Baba Amr. It wasn't us who did all this in Baba

:38:55.:39:01.

Amr, it was these armed terrorist groups who kidnap the civilians and

:39:01.:39:11.

blow up the buildings, the army had to push them out. We didn't blow up

:39:11.:39:18.

the buildings. He receives the Greek or the docks head, before the

:39:18.:39:21.

war there was people of all sects living in harmony. Here as

:39:21.:39:25.

elsewhere, battles are drawn on sectarian lines. The bishop wants

:39:25.:39:31.

to send a different message. belong to, not to this side or that

:39:31.:39:41.
:39:41.:39:45.

side, I'm in the middle. But I think that it is my epistle to the

:39:45.:39:49.

world, that here in Syria we are not looking at each other as if we

:39:49.:39:53.

are different groups, or different, let's say, religions, fighting each

:39:53.:40:00.

other. But war is tearing at the fabric of

:40:00.:40:08.

this city, neighbourhood by neighbourhood. We tried to advise

:40:08.:40:14.

the mainly Sunni area of Derbalba, the Government told us it was too

:40:14.:40:17.

dangerous, even though the Government took it back last month.

:40:17.:40:21.

Much of Homs is under their control again, for now. But so much has

:40:21.:40:27.

been lost here. There is so little trust. There is a checkpoint now on

:40:27.:40:36.

almost every corner. This one is being manned by women. They call

:40:36.:40:41.

themselves "The Lioness's" loyal to a President whose name means "the

:40:41.:40:46.

lion". They are part of called Popular Committees, set up by the

:40:46.:40:49.

Government to reinforce security. Putting a brave face on this war.

:40:49.:40:55.

But there is no hiding what's gone on in Homs. What's happened across

:40:55.:40:59.

Syria, and what more is still to come.

:40:59.:41:05.

The kinds of conditions we found in Homs have echos elsewhere in Syria,

:41:05.:41:12.

including Aleppo and Damascus. We have a PhD student in economics

:41:12.:41:22.

at Brunel university and former residents in Syria. Did the scenes

:41:22.:41:28.

in the piece correspond to how your family is living? It reminded me of

:41:28.:41:34.

how my family are living back home in different places in Syria.

:41:34.:41:40.

Giving you an example of my city, Deraa, it has been surrounded by

:41:41.:41:45.

Assad forces for over 70 days now. 200,000 people fled out of this

:41:45.:41:53.

city to the surrounding areas. They left without food, with lack of

:41:53.:41:59.

fuel and water and heating, with this cold weather. Children dying

:41:59.:42:03.

from hunger and cold weather. have not been back for about two

:42:03.:42:07.

years. When you get sent pictures, or see pictures of where you are

:42:07.:42:12.

from, the streets that you know so well, do you recognise it? Actually,

:42:12.:42:17.

here is the very sad part of that, to be honest, when I look at some

:42:17.:42:21.

pictures coming from my city, looking at the street, thinking

:42:21.:42:26.

where is that street, do I know this city, is this actually my city.

:42:26.:42:30.

It is like all the buildings are destroyed, schools and mosques and

:42:30.:42:35.

all this, I don't recognise it. said 200,000 people have left the

:42:35.:42:40.

city, you said they went to the surrounding area, to do what? Where

:42:40.:42:44.

are they living? How are they living? They are living a miserable

:42:44.:42:48.

life. They are living in the surrounding areas, like it's forest

:42:48.:42:53.

or something like that, or other cities. Some how it is safer, but

:42:53.:43:00.

they are living on very, very minor basis of life. They are struggling

:43:00.:43:05.

to get bread, water and food and all these things. The electricity

:43:05.:43:13.

is shut for ten hours, and it is like some of friends boasting on

:43:13.:43:17.

Facebook saying if we are -- saying on Facebook, if they are not dying

:43:17.:43:24.

from the rockets or the bullets but from the cold. On the one hand in

:43:24.:43:28.

the film you see the awful scenes, and on the other hand you see

:43:28.:43:32.

people eating pizzas, admittedly they can't always make them. Is

:43:32.:43:41.

there a degree of normal life going on? In certain areas, but they are

:43:41.:43:46.

pro-Assad, so the Government let them live their lives, they don't

:43:46.:43:56.

interfere. One shout in an area, saying" Assad down", or" Assad step

:43:56.:44:01.

down", or "free Syria", you will see massive bullets and massive put

:44:01.:44:05.

down. Why aren't you treating your people equally? How long do you

:44:05.:44:10.

think it will go on for, it must seem endless to you? To be honest

:44:10.:44:15.

we don't know how long this will go on. As long as the fighting is

:44:15.:44:20.

between the two parties, it is going on and on, it might go for

:44:20.:44:25.

years, or it might end tomorrow. Nobody knows. So it should be like

:44:25.:44:30.

some solution other than war. Now a quick look at tomorrow

:44:30.:44:40.
:44:40.:44:59.

morning's front page, quite a few The MoD is supporting French

:44:59.:45:02.

efforts through logistical support, ministers are reviewing the

:45:02.:45:06.

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