Browse content similar to 28/01/2013. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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How are you going to pay for your old age? Final salary pension also | :00:13. | :00:17. | |
soon be history, savings are getting little return, if you are | :00:17. | :00:21. | |
16 or 60, do you have a plan? Is it to stay at your desk working | :00:21. | :00:27. | |
until you die? After today's news that companies are kiboshing final | :00:27. | :00:30. | |
salary pensions at a record rate, where should people save? | :00:30. | :00:33. | |
The old pension system worked because the value of shares | :00:33. | :00:38. | |
generally went up, and Government bonds generally delivered a decent | :00:38. | :00:43. | |
income. Now, that's no longer true. We are joined by four people who | :00:43. | :00:47. | |
might have some idea how to salvage our old age. | :00:47. | :00:53. | |
Also tonight, remember this? What happened in Iceland is completely | :00:53. | :00:55. | |
unacceptable, I have been in touch with their Prime Minister, I have | :00:55. | :01:00. | |
said this is effectively illegal. Today Britain lost its claim to get | :01:00. | :01:05. | |
�2.2 billion, given by us to depositors in Iceland's bust banks. | :01:05. | :01:09. | |
I will ask their Finance Minister how we can ever trust her. | :01:09. | :01:14. | |
Mali and French forces retake Timbuktu after a year in Islamist | :01:14. | :01:18. | |
hands. Apparently not in time to stop them burning a library housing | :01:18. | :01:23. | |
thousands of ancient manuscripts. Will the French find winning the | :01:23. | :01:26. | |
peace harder than capturing desert towns. | :01:26. | :01:30. | |
Welcome to Korea's demilitarised zone, the most dangerous border in | :01:30. | :01:34. | |
the world, and a nice spot for tourism and children's English | :01:34. | :01:44. | |
:01:44. | :01:50. | ||
Good evening, who will look after us when we are old, how should we | :01:50. | :01:56. | |
look after ourselves? Last year 31% of called defined pension benefits | :01:56. | :02:00. | |
pension schemes, where the payout is related to your salary, closed, | :02:00. | :02:03. | |
according to the National Association of Pension Funds today. | :02:03. | :02:09. | |
With interest rates low, returns from bonds very low and the stock | :02:09. | :02:14. | |
market below its peak, most of us are struggling to provide provision. | :02:14. | :02:19. | |
Whether you are middle-aged and wondering about retiring, or young | :02:19. | :02:25. | |
and not worried about saving, is retirement slipping from our grasp. | :02:25. | :02:28. | |
In the golden age of the pension, this is how it used to work, you | :02:28. | :02:32. | |
plodded along, saving some of your wages, and putting them into stocks | :02:32. | :02:35. | |
and shares, that grew in value, like this, the graph of the FTSE. | :02:36. | :02:40. | |
There were ups and down, but never violent. Then things went violently | :02:40. | :02:46. | |
well, and then they went violently haywire. In the process, a lot of | :02:46. | :02:51. | |
people fell out of the system. And now, the golden age is gone. | :02:51. | :02:54. | |
Students bracing themselves for the transition to work will find | :02:54. | :03:00. | |
pension funds largely closed to them. Just 13% still open to new | :03:00. | :03:03. | |
joiners. These were figures released today. On today's figure, | :03:03. | :03:06. | |
a young person leaving university this year, and joining a private | :03:06. | :03:10. | |
company, has, maybe, a one in ten chance of joining that company's | :03:10. | :03:15. | |
pension scheme, and the reasons for that are economic uncertainty, and | :03:15. | :03:20. | |
the certainty of ageing. So this generation will have to | :03:20. | :03:26. | |
save on their own. Challenges for them, challenging for the whole | :03:26. | :03:30. | |
future structure of capitalism. an environment where we are living | :03:30. | :03:33. | |
long e any Government has to deal with that. Occupational pension | :03:33. | :03:37. | |
schemes are in decline as well. The things that we are all faced with, | :03:37. | :03:41. | |
ultimately we have to look at waiting longer for state benefits. | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
We have to look at possibly to working longer, or alternatively we | :03:45. | :03:49. | |
have to look at saving earlier. This month, the Government | :03:49. | :03:54. | |
signalled the introduction of a flat rate state pension, worth | :03:54. | :03:57. | |
�7,488 a year. To get anything above that, in the future, you will | :03:57. | :04:03. | |
have to save a lot. Just to earn the median wage of �21,000 a year, | :04:03. | :04:09. | |
at the age of 65, your savings would have to be worth �4 10,000, | :04:09. | :04:13. | |
to earn �42,000, the average wage of a train driver, would you need | :04:13. | :04:17. | |
more than a million. The earlier you save the better you get from | :04:17. | :04:23. | |
compound growth over many years, it is easy to focus on what you have | :04:23. | :04:25. | |
to wave save, that can be significant. The sooner you save | :04:25. | :04:28. | |
the better it will be in the long- term. What are you supposed to | :04:29. | :04:32. | |
save? Real wages have fallen in value, and where are you supposed | :04:32. | :04:36. | |
to put your savings? Once that was a no-brainer, the answer was shares, | :04:36. | :04:40. | |
or equities, as they are called. But not for this generation. | :04:40. | :04:44. | |
used to be very much the case that when you looked at the UK equity | :04:44. | :04:49. | |
market, you could think of it as something we held stake in via our | :04:49. | :04:53. | |
pensions. The pensions held huge amounts of blue chip equities, now | :04:53. | :04:56. | |
they don't, they hold overseas equities, hedge funds, and in the | :04:56. | :05:00. | |
main, Government bonds. The UK equity market is no longer really | :05:00. | :05:04. | |
owned by the UK population, that's a big shift. | :05:04. | :05:08. | |
For people in their 40s and 50s, there is a pension crisis of a | :05:08. | :05:12. | |
different type. Today's survey of pension funds found one third of | :05:12. | :05:17. | |
funds have closed contributions for existing members. Plus, the Bank of | :05:17. | :05:21. | |
England's decision to print money has lowered the interest payments | :05:22. | :05:25. | |
on Government bonds, to below inflation. So savers are actually | :05:25. | :05:30. | |
losing money by lending it to the Treasury. In the golden era of | :05:30. | :05:35. | |
company pension, the majority of a pension fund was invested in | :05:35. | :05:40. | |
company shares, and the rest in Government bonds, here and abroad. | :05:40. | :05:45. | |
As late as 2002, 61% of UK pensions were in shares, a third in bonds, | :05:45. | :05:50. | |
and everything else, including in cash, came to 6%. Now that has | :05:50. | :05:55. | |
pension money was in the stock market, 37% was in bonds, but 18% | :05:55. | :05:57. | |
is now in assets deemed to have a better chance of avoiding losses, | :05:57. | :06:02. | |
or wipouts. That is a mixture of gold, derivatives, based on | :06:02. | :06:06. | |
commodities, hedge funds, and property. If you have a final | :06:06. | :06:10. | |
salary pension, you generally have no problems at all, you have a | :06:10. | :06:13. | |
guaranteed pension that will rise with inflation until you die. This | :06:13. | :06:17. | |
is a wonderful thing. If you don't have a final salary pension you | :06:17. | :06:25. | |
bond markets will go and interest rates will go, and what annuity | :06:25. | :06:29. | |
rates will be. You have no choice but to keep saving and saving and | :06:29. | :06:36. | |
The old pension system worked because the value of shares | :06:36. | :06:39. | |
generally went up, and Government bonds generally delivered a decent | :06:39. | :06:44. | |
income. Now, that's no longer true, and it poses big problems, not just | :06:44. | :06:51. | |
for the pension system, but for the very shape of capitalism theself. | :06:51. | :06:56. | |
The caench is forcing people to spend -- the credit crunch is | :06:56. | :07:04. | |
forcing people to spend less and this at some point will have to | :07:04. | :07:09. | |
change. Some feel the collapse of permanent dent in our willingness | :07:09. | :07:13. | |
to spend. When you have doubt about your future income and how | :07:13. | :07:18. | |
on your consumption in your late 40s, early 50s, 60s, that is | :07:18. | :07:23. | |
Uncertainty is a great enemy of economic growth of every kind. | :07:24. | :07:30. | |
it comes to pension, the economics of uncertainty are what define the | :07:30. | :07:37. | |
future. Here we have Otto Thoresen, Adrian | :07:37. | :07:45. | |
Hartshorn, the partner at Mercer director general of Saga, and | :07:45. | :07:50. | |
former Government adviser on Financial Times. We will all shoot | :07:51. | :08:00. | |
:08:01. | :08:03. | ||
salary pension of the average wage, �400,000 away in your working life. | :08:03. | :08:05. | |
For most people that seems impossible now? To start with it is | :08:05. | :08:09. | |
important to understand this other factor of the fact we are living | :08:09. | :08:13. | |
longer. Exactly. That is a really important positive aspect of what | :08:13. | :08:18. | |
is happening here. When Lord Turner did his review years ago, he said | :08:18. | :08:22. | |
the answer was partly working longer, partly saving more and | :08:22. | :08:29. | |
partly the state pension and what have to look at that at a package | :08:29. | :08:39. | |
:08:39. | :08:45. | ||
are in your 40s or 50s, saving on should blow it, what is the point | :08:45. | :08:48. | |
of living to a poor old age? think if you look at it from the | :08:48. | :08:51. | |
other perspective, I have a 21- year-old son, I'm close to this. | :08:51. | :08:58. | |
The fact is, if you are 20 now p and you are looking out -- and you | :08:58. | :09:02. | |
are looking out 40, 50 years, we shouldn't be depressed over markets | :09:03. | :09:10. | |
to have a belief that with economic growth, and with markets going up, | :09:10. | :09:14. | |
that returns will come through again. I believe with economic | :09:14. | :09:18. | |
growth forecast in the next decade, Gillian Tett, if you are between | :09:18. | :09:23. | |
20-30 you will have to save an awful lot to give you any kind of | :09:23. | :09:30. | |
return when you are 65, 70? If you retire at 65 any more. The good | :09:30. | :09:33. | |
news is we are living longer. That is good. The other piece of good | :09:33. | :09:41. | |
the pensions crisis has been swept under the carpet, because it is a | :09:41. | :09:50. | |
to talk about it. Also, you know, these very, very low bond returns, | :09:50. | :09:52. | |
a real problem, the Government shoves all this money into the | :09:52. | :09:56. | |
economy, depresses interest rates, and so, in a sense, screws people | :09:56. | :10:01. | |
over both ways? I think what the Bank of England hasn't understood | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
is just how much our pensions system is underpinned by long-term | :10:05. | :10:09. | |
Government bond yields. By depressing long-term Government | :10:09. | :10:13. | |
bond yields, the Government has basically devalued everybody's | :10:13. | :10:18. | |
pensions and made it much more pensions. I think we need to get | :10:18. | :10:26. | |
away, in way, from the idea that we need re-think our whole | :10:26. | :10:27. | |
lifestyle. There is a whole new...We Can't guarantee new huge | :10:27. | :10:31. | |
growth in the next ten years or bond yields being better? It is not | :10:31. | :10:34. | |
just about saving. This is about our lives. Pensions are just one | :10:34. | :10:40. | |
aspect of how we are going to live in later life. You can have part- | :10:40. | :10:44. | |
time work. It is so complicated. People don't understand. Is part of | :10:44. | :10:48. | |
the problem branding. I can remember when you are 18 or 20 you | :10:48. | :10:56. | |
hear about the pensions and you challenges as a society we need to | :10:56. | :11:06. | |
:11:06. | :11:14. | ||
term. We have seen the changes in just about the Government saying | :11:14. | :11:22. | |
they will increase the state proportion of people drawing the | :11:22. | :11:29. | |
it is more people drawing the state pension? And fewer and fewer people | :11:29. | :11:32. | |
paying taxs to provide those. Before we talk about solutions, | :11:32. | :11:37. | |
back to the insurers, you charge the development of fees over the | :11:38. | :11:47. | |
:11:48. | :11:48. | ||
products that we sell into the work place now are historically low. | :11:48. | :11:54. | |
We're talking about 50 basis points a very charge. I'm with Ros on this, | :11:54. | :12:00. | |
about managing your debt, it is going to develop your life, and it | :12:00. | :12:10. | |
:12:10. | :12:11. | ||
money from the industry? I think we need to get away from the industry | :12:11. | :12:18. | |
that the industry is going to solve the problem for us. We have to get | :12:18. | :12:22. | |
real about pensions, we haven't done. There is no magic money tree | :12:22. | :12:32. | |
:12:32. | :12:37. | ||
that pensions will be daing -- to be more focus on financial | :12:37. | :12:39. | |
literacy. I'm strongly in favour of teaching financial literacy, along | :12:39. | :12:43. | |
with maths at school, right from the get-go. One of the problems | :12:43. | :12:47. | |
about this, which people don't often talk about. As people live | :12:47. | :12:51. | |
for a longer time, it is very tempt to go say everyone should simply | :12:51. | :12:56. | |
work a lot longer, that is wait the country like America. The reality | :12:56. | :12:59. | |
is, the people who live longer and are healthier, tend to be the | :12:59. | :13:04. | |
better off. The people who can do what you are saying, think about | :13:04. | :13:14. | |
:13:14. | :13:16. | ||
society. We don't have a culture, salary pension, we don't have a | :13:16. | :13:20. | |
That is part of the problem, that is the air of unreality that has | :13:20. | :13:24. | |
been around for far too long. We expect somebody to provide a | :13:24. | :13:28. | |
pension for. Actually, from now on, and it should have been from quite | :13:28. | :13:32. | |
a while a you are on your own. Tough make a plan. The Government | :13:32. | :13:38. | |
we can argue about the age at which it will start to be paid. But there | :13:38. | :13:48. | |
:13:48. | :13:48. | ||
want more than, that and most Is it a mix of trying to buy | :13:48. | :13:58. | |
property, put some gold away? have seen defined benefits scheme, | :13:58. | :14:01. | |
which essentially provide guarantee, we know guarantees cost money. | :14:01. | :14:05. | |
Equitable *Life got into trouble with a load of guarantees in the | :14:05. | :14:11. | |
products, and we know what happened to them. We know that providing | :14:11. | :14:19. | |
Equally defined contribution, which financial education, and really | :14:19. | :14:22. | |
quite sophisticated planning around those, ultimately it won't deliver, | :14:22. | :14:25. | |
because of the uncertainty around them. So we really need to think | :14:25. | :14:31. | |
somewhere in the middle space, around what's commonly being | :14:31. | :14:35. | |
determined as defined ambition. Something with a relatively low | :14:35. | :14:40. | |
level of guarantee. Restricted ambition this is? But some sort of | :14:40. | :14:45. | |
level of top up, which is not guaranteed, that allows people to | :14:45. | :14:50. | |
make some financial decisions. Sorry, you know, interest rates, | :14:50. | :14:56. | |
are they ever going to go up, go up evently but if you want to | :14:56. | :15:00. | |
understand why they may not go up fast. Look at Japan. I fully agree, | :15:00. | :15:07. | |
thing crystal clear, it would be foolhardy to put all your money | :15:07. | :15:11. | |
into Government bonds today. What is going on today is a form of what | :15:11. | :15:14. | |
economists call financial repression, the Government is | :15:14. | :15:18. | |
trying to pay off the national debt by essentially having a stealth tax | :15:18. | :15:25. | |
of them, then you are essentially going to lose money. It is very | :15:25. | :15:28. | |
worrying that the pension fund industry right now is dashing into | :15:28. | :15:33. | |
Government bonds. They are sold as the place to put your money in for | :15:33. | :15:38. | |
safety? They are supposed to be risk-free. And interest-free? | :15:38. | :15:43. | |
tend to draw the broad conclusions from aggregate data. It is not | :15:43. | :15:47. | |
aggregate data, it is a series of different sets of pension | :15:47. | :15:50. | |
arrangements. What should people do? I'm going back to the point I | :15:50. | :15:54. | |
was going to make earlier. It is easy to get tied up in discussing | :15:54. | :15:56. | |
aspects of investment returns, we should look at some of the very | :15:56. | :16:01. | |
positive things that have happened in the last five or ten years. We | :16:01. | :16:04. | |
have had some consistency in pension policy, we have had pretty | :16:04. | :16:08. | |
well consensus across parties about putting the pension reform agenda | :16:08. | :16:11. | |
in. That is a significant step forward. Millions of people are | :16:11. | :16:15. | |
going to be brought into pension saving over the next two to three | :16:15. | :16:19. | |
years. We had the announcement last week about the single-teir state | :16:19. | :16:29. | |
:16:29. | :16:30. | ||
want. That is very positive I think. Thank you very much. | :16:30. | :16:40. | |
:16:40. | :16:41. | ||
assets under anti-terror laws, bust. He maybe long gone, but the - | :16:41. | :16:49. | |
- he may be long gone, but the to be repaid the money he gave | :16:49. | :16:56. | |
The Treasury is still �2.2 billion out of pocket, but a ruling today | :16:56. | :17:06. | |
:17:06. | :17:07. | ||
Are your savings not safe in a foreign bank? | :17:07. | :17:13. | |
Before the financial crisis Iceland was best known here for its geezer, | :17:13. | :17:18. | |
glaciers and Miss World victories. Then Iceland's banks went bust, | :17:18. | :17:26. | |
taking the country down with it in 2008. The collapse affected 230,000 | :17:26. | :17:31. | |
UK deposors, whose savings in savings of �2.2 billion had to be | :17:31. | :17:33. | |
repaid bit Treasury here, which promptly demanded the money back | :17:33. | :17:43. | |
from Reykjavik, roughly half of that sum has been repaid already. | :17:43. | :17:46. | |
Today's European Free Trade Association court ruling, doesn't | :17:46. | :17:50. | |
affect the dozens of British local authorities, which also parked | :17:50. | :17:57. | |
almost �1 billion of council tax payers' money with Iceland savings | :17:57. | :18:03. | |
accounts. It means the Icelandic Government wasn't obliged to recur | :18:03. | :18:09. | |
the debts of privately-owned banks. Bjork k excited about it in a tweet. | :18:09. | :18:13. | |
The implications could be very important for Iceland, Britain and | :18:13. | :18:17. | |
the rest of the EU. This is good news for everybody involved. For | :18:17. | :18:22. | |
Iceland it has been under considerable uncertainty because of | :18:22. | :18:28. | |
it, now it is lifted it can get on rebuilding its economy. This is | :18:28. | :18:36. | |
also a blessing in disguise for the have been obliged to provide | :18:36. | :18:42. | |
Government gauorns for bank deposits d guarantees, for bank | :18:42. | :18:49. | |
times. The then Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, oped a diplomatic | :18:49. | :18:53. | |
wound between London and Reykjavik, when he evoked anti-terror laws to | :18:53. | :18:58. | |
seize all Icelandic financial assets. What happened in Iceland is | :18:58. | :19:01. | |
completely unacceptable. I have been in touch with the Icelandic | :19:01. | :19:06. | |
Prime Minister, I I have said this is illegal action they have taken, | :19:06. | :19:11. | |
we are freezing the asset of Icelandic companies in the UK where | :19:11. | :19:17. | |
against the Icelandic authorities, wherever that is necessary to | :19:17. | :19:25. | |
recover the money. Being lumped in people twice rejected a plan to | :19:25. | :19:28. | |
repay Britain in separate referenda. Four years on and the new UK | :19:28. | :19:32. | |
Government is quite sanguine with today's ruling, which can't be | :19:32. | :19:36. | |
repealed, that is because it has received most of the money back | :19:36. | :19:43. | |
from the bank that used to cone i sap sld save, the message is | :19:43. | :19:47. | |
regulators and legislators weren't doing their job up to the 2008 | :19:47. | :19:54. | |
financial crisis but they are now. Five years on and quite a few barn | :19:54. | :20:01. | |
doors have been bolted with regards to financial regulation. Deposited | :20:01. | :20:10. | |
law, but savers will think twice before putting large sums in | :20:11. | :20:15. | |
Icelandic banks. Good evening minister. You still | :20:15. | :20:25. | |
:20:25. | :20:29. | ||
this morning, of course we welcome it in Iceland, because it takes a | :20:29. | :20:34. | |
lot of legal uncertainties and puts it aside. It is also very important | :20:34. | :20:41. | |
to state that the estate of the failed bank will continue to pay | :20:41. | :20:46. | |
out priority claims to the depositors and creditors. As they | :20:46. | :20:53. | |
lot of the money has already been paid off? They have been doing that. | :20:53. | :20:59. | |
But it is �2.2 billion left? There are about 50% of the priority | :20:59. | :21:05. | |
claims already paid out. The estate will continue to pay priority | :21:05. | :21:07. | |
claims. It is estimated that the priority claims can't be and will | :21:07. | :21:13. | |
be repaid in full. That is the good news for everybody. I know that the | :21:13. | :21:20. | |
Icelandic people felt very put upon by Gordon Brown when he evoked | :21:20. | :21:24. | |
these anti-terror law, was the British Government wrong to give | :21:24. | :21:30. | |
money back to British depositors in Icelandic banks without knowing if | :21:30. | :21:35. | |
it would get the money back? Like I said, the estate is, it is | :21:35. | :21:44. | |
able to pay back -- the estate will priority claims. How long do you | :21:44. | :21:51. | |
been able to pay out, or the estate has already paid out about 50%, so, | :21:51. | :22:01. | |
estimating that this can happen quite rapidly in the near future. | :22:01. | :22:07. | |
But this is possible because the Icelandic parliament implemented, | :22:07. | :22:16. | |
in October of 2008, an emergency this can happen now, and that's why | :22:16. | :22:23. | |
we are able to do this. Do you think that foreign investors should | :22:23. | :22:30. | |
deposit money in small countries? When this all happened the banks | :22:30. | :22:36. | |
were nine-times the size of just back off the economies of | :22:36. | :22:41. | |
small countries when they come to make deposits? Well, I think that | :22:41. | :22:51. | |
:22:51. | :22:52. | ||
this a sad history, a sad story, very heavy and important learning | :22:52. | :22:54. | |
process for all of us. And all the regulatory framework that the | :22:54. | :22:58. | |
Icelandic Government has been implementing in the past four years | :22:58. | :23:04. | |
has all had the aim of and the goal that this could not happen again. | :23:04. | :23:09. | |
That is very, very important. I think that we were, our regulatory | :23:09. | :23:15. | |
framework was not strong enough, and this is something that we have | :23:15. | :23:22. | |
learned and we have changed. A lot of what you have done to stablise | :23:22. | :23:29. | |
bondholders sink and so forth, you could never have done, had you been | :23:29. | :23:37. | |
within the EU, and yet I understand EU? Well, we have a very, you could | :23:37. | :23:41. | |
say we have a very different situation than many other European | :23:41. | :23:46. | |
countries. We are a very small nation, with our other currency. We | :23:46. | :23:51. | |
are only 230,000 people. It is very difficult to manage the kuorn -- | :23:51. | :23:55. | |
320,000 people. It was difficult to manage the currency once the bank | :23:55. | :24:00. | |
fell. We needed capital controls, otherwise things would have gotten | :24:00. | :24:05. | |
a lot, lot worse here in Iceland. I think that we have, the capital | :24:05. | :24:12. | |
controls, and the reasons why they a lot of understanding on that | :24:12. | :24:20. | |
situation. But it is our aim, and the past four years, in | :24:20. | :24:24. | |
strengthening our economy so that we can start lifting the capital | :24:24. | :24:34. | |
:24:34. | :24:39. | ||
years. Hopefully we will not have capital controls for very long. | :24:39. | :24:48. | |
we are going to get the money back, but can we trust you? Like I said, | :24:48. | :24:58. | |
:24:58. | :25:01. | ||
been paying out to priority claims, and the estate of the failed bank | :25:01. | :25:06. | |
will continue to do so. Even though this ruling was like it was this | :25:06. | :25:10. | |
morning. But I think the main and the best thing about the ruling | :25:10. | :25:15. | |
this morning is that now this uncertainty is out of the way, and | :25:15. | :25:21. | |
we can move on and leave this sad Thank you very much for joining us | :25:21. | :25:27. | |
tonight. The French-led offensive in Mali | :25:27. | :25:32. | |
has succeeded in dislodging Islamist rebels from the northern | :25:32. | :25:35. | |
town and fabled town of Timbuktu. After a year in control they have | :25:35. | :25:38. | |
left many of the holy shrines and monuments smashed to pieces. As | :25:38. | :25:42. | |
they pulled out, they have apparently set fire to a library, | :25:42. | :25:46. | |
the Ahmed Baba Institute, which contains thousands of priceless | :25:46. | :25:51. | |
documents stating back to the 13th sent treatment one of the greatest | :25:51. | :25:55. | |
likeies of Islamic manuscripts in the world. We will talk about that | :25:55. | :26:02. | |
in a moment. First of all from Mali. Can you tell us the latest from | :26:02. | :26:10. | |
Timbuktu? Well, yes. As you say, we understand from malian official | :26:10. | :26:15. | |
was set ablaze four days ago by Islamist rebels, as they began to | :26:16. | :26:21. | |
flee from the town, ahead of the French advance. The institute | :26:21. | :26:28. | |
contains about 20,000 manuscripts, dating from the golden age of | :26:28. | :26:33. | |
Timbuktu as a great centre of Islamic learning, manuscripts about | :26:33. | :26:37. | |
science, learning and history, all housed in this brand-new research | :26:37. | :26:41. | |
institute, funded by the South African Government. Precisely | :26:41. | :26:44. | |
intended to preserve those manuscripts for posterity. They are | :26:45. | :26:49. | |
not the only manuscripts in Tim but tu, there are several hundred | :26:49. | :26:53. | |
thousand in private collections as well. This was the main single | :26:53. | :27:00. | |
damage was done. But we understand there has been considerable damage, | :27:00. | :27:05. | |
there has been considerable losses there. Let's talk now about the | :27:05. | :27:11. | |
advance of the French and the malian Government. Do you think | :27:11. | :27:17. | |
that -- Malian Government. Do you think the Islamist rebels are | :27:18. | :27:22. | |
fainting back, what will be the town in the north still in the | :27:22. | :27:27. | |
hands of the rebels. We expect now that the French will probably | :27:27. | :27:31. | |
retake that in the next few days. What President Hollande has said, | :27:31. | :27:35. | |
military intervention in Mali will be over. The French will retire to | :27:35. | :27:38. | |
their bases, after that they will have a support and training role | :27:38. | :27:43. | |
for Malian and other west African troops, who will be expected to | :27:43. | :27:47. | |
complete the conquest of the north, and then hold the territory. The | :27:47. | :27:52. | |
big question is how difficult a job will that be. Where exactly are | :27:52. | :28:02. | |
have the rebels now gone. Will they guerrilla war of the kind we have | :28:02. | :28:08. | |
seen for decades in this part of intelligence believes is some of | :28:08. | :28:11. | |
these Islamist leaders have already gone to the mountains, where there | :28:11. | :28:18. | |
is a well-established cave complex in the far north of Mali. We have | :28:18. | :28:22. | |
heard from Malian military sources that they believe some of the | :28:22. | :28:27. | |
rebels are now hiding in Timbuktu and other towns, and they pose a | :28:27. | :28:37. | |
:28:37. | :28:40. | ||
into the north, and refugees return, we will see a lot of people being | :28:40. | :28:50. | |
:28:50. | :28:51. | ||
accused of being infiltrators and talk about developments in Mali, we | :28:51. | :28:54. | |
have a Tuareg sociologist, Sufiah Yusof, Noman Benotman, a former | :28:54. | :29:00. | |
Libyan Jihadi, now of the counter extremist, Quilliam Foundation, and | :29:00. | :29:03. | |
Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group, we will talk about | :29:03. | :29:08. | |
the library in a moment. First of all, Dr Yusof, do you think, when | :29:08. | :29:12. | |
you hear it said that there may be a regrouping, and there maybe | :29:13. | :29:18. | |
further activities by the Islamists, what is your view of what is | :29:18. | :29:25. | |
happening at the moment? I think that this is the first step. | :29:25. | :29:34. | |
Probably the Islamists will melt a. Will they come back, as he said? | :29:34. | :29:39. | |
they have their opportunities, and the means, perhaps. If they can't | :29:39. | :29:48. | |
do that, perhaps they will resort to other things, dirty terrorism in | :29:48. | :29:53. | |
cities and things like that. Wherever they find easy targets. | :29:53. | :29:59. | |
Ian Bremmer, just on the basis of what Dr Yusof says, do you think | :29:59. | :30:08. | |
the French might be embroiled for be? It is clear that Hollande | :30:08. | :30:14. | |
easier battle at the beginning, he had to walk that back today. He | :30:14. | :30:17. | |
said today the French are wing so far. I remember when President Bush | :30:17. | :30:20. | |
said mission accomplished in Afghanistan, it didn't go well for | :30:20. | :30:25. | |
them. 60% of French supported it at the beginning, I bet if you took a | :30:25. | :30:29. | |
poll that will still be already going down. They will be there in | :30:29. | :30:36. | |
six months time. My colleague is of biding their time or urban | :30:37. | :30:41. | |
insurgency, or waiting to see attacks against French civilians in | :30:41. | :30:47. | |
Mali or closer to home, it could be France. There are a lot of folks | :30:47. | :30:54. | |
object of global war on terror was the US, today it is France. This | :30:54. | :30:59. | |
you heard it said there that there is some idea that the groups are | :30:59. | :31:04. | |
disappeared to the mountains, but some are still local? Some of them, | :31:04. | :31:09. | |
of course, I agree what was said from Timbuktu, it is well known the | :31:10. | :31:18. | |
tactics by all the Salafi Jihadists, I would rather say that rather than | :31:18. | :31:24. | |
Islamists. They want different things? Yes, there is two main | :31:24. | :31:34. | |
:31:34. | :31:39. | ||
largest guerrilla warfare in the about them, the war is against them, | :31:39. | :31:44. | |
the other one more dangerous, a very low level urban guerrilla | :31:44. | :31:54. | |
:31:54. | :31:58. | ||
warfare. What do the Tuaregs want? They want good governance. Under | :31:58. | :32:02. | |
this Malian Government? Under this Malian Government, they have never | :32:02. | :32:09. | |
been generally seperatist, I don't think so. Of course there was this | :32:09. | :32:17. | |
declaration of independence, but it was more, I think, sort of part of | :32:17. | :32:24. | |
a bargaining strategy. So the Tuareg, and the other groups are | :32:24. | :32:34. | |
:32:34. | :32:34. | ||
not aligned in terms of their talking about. There is all sorts | :32:34. | :32:37. | |
of different sub-Al-Qaeda groups, and different conversations about | :32:37. | :32:44. | |
who else is out there? Al-Qaeda is not the same thing as the Tuareg. | :32:44. | :32:52. | |
No, of course not. The other people, the inhabitants of the northern | :32:52. | :33:00. | |
part of Mali, there are Arabs, there are all of them, what they | :33:00. | :33:05. | |
want is basically a good governance. They want good governance, and they | :33:05. | :33:10. | |
are not getting it, where do the Americans stand on this? It seems | :33:10. | :33:17. | |
very clear that Barack Obama is not on for any for moreen adventures? | :33:17. | :33:19. | |
It is very clear, the -- Foreign adventures? It is clear the United | :33:19. | :33:23. | |
States is providing refuelling and transport, we are picking up French | :33:23. | :33:28. | |
soldier, bringing them to Mali and going back. We are OK with that. We | :33:28. | :33:32. | |
have 60,000 plus dead in Syria and no appetite for that. President | :33:33. | :33:37. | |
Obama's inAugustation speech is focusing on nation-building at home. | :33:37. | :33:41. | |
We are reducing adventure in the Middle East not increasing it. | :33:41. | :33:49. | |
Let's move on to talk about what we think has happened, this burning of | :33:49. | :33:58. | |
that there are hundreds of hands, the building of the | :33:59. | :34:03. | |
collection was going on day by day, how important was the collection? | :34:03. | :34:06. | |
It is hard to estimate how many documents were damaged and how many | :34:06. | :34:14. | |
are still in good shape. Of course historically it is just such a rich | :34:14. | :34:18. | |
heritage, a treasure. If it disappears, it would be such a | :34:19. | :34:25. | |
disaster, actually. Much of it is about the flowering of Malian | :34:25. | :34:31. | |
cultural life around Timbuktu in the 14th and 15th centuries, we | :34:31. | :34:39. | |
haven't had a huge cache of documents like that before? | :34:39. | :34:49. | |
:34:49. | :34:51. | ||
really, if these documents we lose this documentation. When it | :34:51. | :34:59. | |
the rebels would burn it? Because Look, first of all, I think I still | :34:59. | :35:04. | |
have a of doubt if they really burned all of it. Because I know | :35:04. | :35:09. | |
they have something with some specific documents or manuscripts, | :35:09. | :35:16. | |
it has to do with sufficientism, they have a strong ideolgical | :35:16. | :35:21. | |
Sufism. Sufi documents have already been destroyed? They think it is | :35:21. | :35:26. | |
they are leaving the down, it is a religious duty. Do you think they | :35:26. | :35:32. | |
still have a lot of doubt about what kind of damage. It has not | :35:32. | :35:40. | |
lot of conflicting reports. If it is true, Dr Youssouf, how | :35:40. | :35:45. | |
cultural heritage to have lost this material? I think it would be a | :35:45. | :35:55. | |
:35:55. | :35:55. | ||
very sad thing. But what I would like to say about this, is Malians, | :35:55. | :36:01. | |
ought to take advantage of their culture while it is there. And not | :36:01. | :36:11. | |
:36:11. | :36:21. | ||
wait until it is not there to capitalise on it. To get everything | :36:21. | :36:27. | |
they can get out of it. Because once it is not there, then it is a | :36:27. | :36:37. | |
problem. I think it is not enough to have manuscripts in a place like | :36:37. | :36:42. | |
the Ahmed Baba Institute. What is more important, it is like having | :36:42. | :36:52. | |
:36:52. | :36:56. | ||
pieces in a museum, what is more important is promoting the cultural | :36:56. | :37:05. | |
heritage, and helping people be aware of that heritage. Helping | :37:05. | :37:07. | |
them to incorporate it in their own intelligence. | :37:07. | :37:12. | |
Thank you very much. The US and Japan today agreed to work closely | :37:12. | :37:15. | |
with South Korea to dissuade North Korea from carrying out what is | :37:15. | :37:19. | |
called a nuclear test of a higher level. However, the north Korean | :37:19. | :37:22. | |
news agency announced that forcing the country to give up the right to | :37:22. | :37:26. | |
satellite launch is a little short of pressurising it to abandon its | :37:26. | :37:30. | |
sovereignty. So South Korea remains constantly alert to attack, and the | :37:30. | :37:34. | |
rare attempt at defection. Newsnight was given extraordinary | :37:34. | :37:40. | |
access to the closed border area, frozen in time since the end of the | :37:40. | :37:47. | |
Korean War. Every day, for 6 years, someone has | :37:47. | :37:54. | |
patrolled the world's last Cold War frontier. Today it is Lieutenant | :37:54. | :37:58. | |
Yoo Hak-joo, a baby-faced 24-year- old, a love of long distance | :37:58. | :38:02. | |
running and a girlfriend who worries back home. The South Korean | :38:02. | :38:06. | |
army unit he leads are known as Flying Dragons, the small stprech | :38:06. | :38:15. | |
of border they defend, -- stretch of the border they defend is bleak | :38:15. | :38:20. | |
and the facilities rudimentry, and the temperatures today below minus | :38:20. | :38:24. | |
20. Twice a day the Lieutenant and his men walk the Armistice Line | :38:24. | :38:30. | |
drawn by the United Nations 20 years a checking for any signs of | :38:30. | :38:32. | |
disturbance in South Korea's perimeter fence. This is where the | :38:32. | :38:35. | |
two sides in the Korean War stood when the fighting stopped. South | :38:35. | :38:40. | |
Korea and the US on this side, North Korea and China on the other. | :38:40. | :38:44. | |
Not much has changed here since. The old enemy, North Korea, begins | :38:44. | :38:49. | |
just over a mill away, across a buffer zone, packed with land mines. | :38:49. | :38:54. | |
And, on the southern side, telephones, rigged up moing the | :38:54. | :38:59. | |
mines for stray defectors -- rigged up among the mines for stray | :38:59. | :39:05. | |
defectors to call across, the army wouldn't say when they last called. | :39:05. | :39:11. | |
The food isn't bad, one of the conscriptss is a trainee chef. | :39:11. | :39:16. | |
Every man has not chosen to be here, in Japan you serve two years | :39:16. | :39:20. | |
national service. The Government has talked about bringing it down. | :39:20. | :39:27. | |
But with the birth rate declining some are worried it will leave the | :39:27. | :39:32. | |
country vulnerable. Some already know what vulnerable is all about. | :39:32. | :39:35. | |
TRANSLATION: It is less about hierarchy more about brotherhood, | :39:35. | :39:40. | |
we eat, sleep and lead together. It is high-stress but I lead my men to | :39:40. | :39:45. | |
do our duty. Any hesitation could lead to my family, the Korean | :39:45. | :39:48. | |
people and my friends to be in danger. We need to be ready to | :39:48. | :39:51. | |
defend this position with everything we have got. We need to | :39:51. | :39:58. | |
be mentally prepared. For the soldiers here, two 2kms away, North | :39:58. | :40:01. | |
Korea can seem especially threatening. This frontier is | :40:02. | :40:05. | |
scattered with old battles, and the last military conflict between the | :40:05. | :40:09. | |
north and the south was two years ago. In his new year's address this | :40:09. | :40:13. | |
year, the north Korean leader talked about ending confrontation | :40:13. | :40:17. | |
with the south. And with South Korea, China and Japan, all | :40:17. | :40:22. | |
starting this year with new leaders, many people are hoping there's a | :40:22. | :40:28. | |
chance for a political this aw. Since then -- thaw. Since then | :40:28. | :40:34. | |
north crowia has defied the UN and announced it will launch long-range | :40:34. | :40:39. | |
rockets and carry out a third nuclear test. The live fire | :40:39. | :40:43. | |
exercises aren't for show. One young recruit told me he gets most | :40:43. | :40:46. | |
scared at night listening to gunfire from the north. Scared | :40:46. | :40:50. | |
perhaps that this could happen again. Just a few miles away from | :40:50. | :40:55. | |
the Lieutenant's stretch of the boarder, lies Gloster Hill, where | :40:55. | :41:00. | |
British servicemen, fighting with their American allies 60 years ago, | :41:00. | :41:05. | |
watched their regiment overrun by the Chinese army. There weren't | :41:05. | :41:09. | |
many left alive to remember it. They kept coming. When they came | :41:09. | :41:17. | |
they did come, and in great numbers. You know. When we were on Gloster | :41:17. | :41:22. | |
Hill, all you could see was the hills covered in them, like ants. | :41:22. | :41:26. | |
You would look around there, they were on that hill, that hill, keep | :41:26. | :41:31. | |
looking around. That was it. He this just kept coming. These days, | :41:31. | :41:36. | |
it is Korean soldiers who stand eyeball-to-eyeball at the border's | :41:36. | :41:41. | |
only Joint Security Area. North and south, 24-hours a day, guarding the | :41:41. | :41:45. | |
line of control inside the UN compound. The list of rules for | :41:46. | :41:50. | |
visitors here reflects just how tense relations have remained, no | :41:50. | :41:55. | |
pointing, no shouting, and until recently, no blue jeans. | :41:56. | :42:03. | |
It has been so long, though, that the uneasy truce has become almost | :42:03. | :42:13. | |
:42:13. | :42:13. | ||
good money to visit a piece of the of South Korea's top tourist sites, | :42:13. | :42:17. | |
even with visiting Chinese. There are gift shops, message boards, and | :42:17. | :42:27. | |
:42:27. | :42:32. | ||
statues to take your photo with. only one school to choose from. And | :42:32. | :42:37. | |
the English lessons, given by real American soldiers are perhaps the | :42:37. | :42:42. | |
biggest draw. But, this is still the frontline, | :42:42. | :42:47. | |
in an unresolved conflict between a heavily-armed communist state, and | :42:47. | :42:51. | |
its capitalist arch enemy. One in Asia could change very quickly. | :42:51. | :42:54. | |
One man, who knows what it is like to eyeball your brother enemy each | :42:55. | :43:04. | |
day is Taishou, now a financial an -- Taishou it a, now a financial an | :43:04. | :43:09. | |
cyst, he was, two years ago, one of the soldiers guarding the blue huts | :43:09. | :43:15. | |
along the line of control. It was so tense at the frontier, he said | :43:15. | :43:25. | |
he never slept very well, everyone between the two lines every day. | :43:25. | :43:29. | |
One day when I was patrolling, one guard from North Korea called my | :43:29. | :43:35. | |
name. I was so surprised the first time, but I felt this feeling of | :43:35. | :43:42. | |
friendship, they actually called my name. We are the same Koreans, we | :43:42. | :43:52. | |
:43:52. | :43:56. | ||
When we lock at their mouths, they They swear at us. Do you mouth bad | :43:56. | :44:06. | |
:44:06. | :44:08. | ||
recorded in there, we have no chance to contact them in person or | :44:08. | :44:15. | |
in facial expressions, that is not Metropilis is 30 miles from the | :44:15. | :44:17. | |
frontline, one reason why the US army has its main military base | :44:17. | :44:23. | |
here, on a slice of prime real estate, bang in the middle of the | :44:23. | :44:27. | |
capital. The razor wire against the neon of Seoul's party district. | :44:27. | :44:32. | |
There are 28,000 American troops still based here, in the next | :44:32. | :44:35. | |
couple of years, half those bases, including most of this one, will | :44:35. | :44:45. | |
:44:45. | :44:46. | ||
close, and the troops will move to is where they are moving to. The | :44:46. | :44:54. | |
town of Pyeongtaek, 06 miles south, 60 miles south, they will be out of | :44:54. | :45:04. | |
:45:04. | :45:04. | ||
this new location gives them more military, just on the other side of | :45:04. | :45:11. | |
this sea here, many people are bond whaerg the future will look like? | :45:11. | :45:17. | |
-- wondering what the future will look like? Construction has already | :45:17. | :45:25. | |
rebalancing of troops in Asia. 60% of the forces could be based here. | :45:25. | :45:31. | |
China is building up its Navy too, with aircraft carriers and | :45:31. | :45:36. | |
submarines. There could be two superpowers in the area. Some local | :45:36. | :45:39. | |
families are wary of their new neighbours. There has been solar | :45:39. | :45:48. | |
panels and new jobs, but some say it is not enough to make up to make | :45:48. | :45:52. | |
up for having US soldiers on their doorstep. This man is raising | :45:52. | :45:57. | |
awareness of what the new base could mean. TRANSLATION: | :45:57. | :46:05. | |
rational has changed. It used to be north, now it is fighting wars | :46:05. | :46:11. | |
America wants to fight. This location is ideal for the US. They | :46:11. | :46:19. | |
to face off with China. America says its rebalance something not | :46:19. | :46:23. | |
about China, but safeguarding regional peace, as it has done for | :46:23. | :46:29. | |
decades. But trip wires exist. Like the one guarded by the | :46:29. | :46:37. | |
Lieutenant and his Flying Dragons. Beijing and Washington and -- feel | :46:37. | :46:43. | |
differently about how to defend against North Korea. A sobering | :46:43. | :46:45. | |
thought for the night patrols collecting ammunition. If this Cold | :46:45. | :46:50. | |
War relic ever turns hot again, this handful of conscriptss will be | :46:50. | :46:57. | |
facing a different kind of battle to the one their grandfather's -- | :46:57. | :47:03. | |
grand fathers' fought. That's all we have time for now. We will be | :47:03. | :47:11. | |
we have time for now. We will be back tomorrow, goodbye. | :47:12. | :47:21. | |
and start to blow the rain back up from the channel across the whole | :47:21. | :47:26. | |
of the UK, turning wetter in possibly turning more drizzley | :47:26. | :47:31. | |
towards the south. Still heavy bursts of rain for northern England | :47:31. | :47:41. | |
:47:41. | :47:44. | ||
is damp and drizzley. Some dryer rain to come across the south west | :47:44. | :47:49. | |
of England. An amber rain warning in Devon, and also across South | :47:49. | :47:54. | |
Wales. Over the hills 50mms, two inches of rain in 24 hours on | :47:54. | :47:59. | |
The rain clearing away from Northern Ireland in the afternoon, | :47:59. | :48:04. | |
it may get late sunshine out things go down hill. Early sunshine | :48:04. | :48:06. | |
but wet and windy through the afternoon. Some of the rain will be | :48:06. | :48:10. | |
heavy, particularly over the hills. Look how mild it is and how it | :48:10. | :48:14. | |
changes on Wednesday. Brighter, yes, but sunshine and some showers, and | :48:14. | :48:18. |