Browse content similar to 30/04/2013. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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What is to be done about Syria? Or maybe there's nothing to be done. | :00:14. | :00:19. | |
This was the President of the World's most powerful country today. | :00:19. | :00:25. | |
By game changer I mean that we would have to re-think the range of | :00:25. | :00:30. | |
options that are available to us. And this was the scene in Damascus. | :00:30. | :00:35. | |
How has the Middle East got to this? | :00:35. | :00:39. | |
I will look at what the options for intervention are, and how the old | :00:39. | :00:42. | |
borders of the Middle East are straining under the pressures | :00:42. | :00:46. | |
caused by this conflict. I will be joined by a former vice | :00:46. | :00:50. | |
Chief of Staff in the US army, a recent member of the Free Syrian | :00:50. | :00:54. | |
Army, and a man who ran part of Iraq. | :00:54. | :01:00. | |
Also, why does sport make gay players feel obliged to hide their | :01:00. | :01:03. | |
sexuality. And what happens when the newest | :01:03. | :01:09. | |
menace to three-party politics hits the Derbyshire dales. Don't let | :01:09. | :01:15. | |
people say we are racist. You need to be counter acting that, we are | :01:15. | :01:20. | |
not racist at all. Just because we want to control the immigration on | :01:20. | :01:30. | |
:01:30. | :01:31. | ||
the borders and whatever. Obviously there are options on the shelf that | :01:31. | :01:35. | |
we have not deployed was the way the American President put it today. | :01:35. | :01:39. | |
It doesn't really count as a threat, but it is another sign that the | :01:39. | :01:43. | |
United States is wrestling with how and when, as well as whether to | :01:43. | :01:47. | |
step into the Civil War in Syria. He has, of course, already said | :01:47. | :01:51. | |
that the use of chemical weapons would cross a red line and chemical | :01:51. | :01:55. | |
weapons probably have been used. But what realistically could the | :01:55. | :01:59. | |
United States, perhaps with her allies, do? Our diplomatic editor | :01:59. | :02:03. | |
is here. Do you think the US is close Tory intervention tonight | :02:03. | :02:06. | |
than previously? I think the President in that news conference | :02:06. | :02:12. | |
sought in a way to step back from the red line in language certainly | :02:12. | :02:16. | |
he kauked about carefully deliberating and examining the | :02:16. | :02:20. | |
evidence, who fired the shell? And the train of evidence. As you said | :02:20. | :02:23. | |
he also talked about military options having been worked up. If | :02:23. | :02:26. | |
there is a clearly defined use of chemical weapons, they could be | :02:26. | :02:32. | |
deployed, but he just couched it in different language. The use of | :02:32. | :02:34. | |
chemical weapons would be a game changer. Not simply for the United | :02:34. | :02:38. | |
States, but for the international community. The reason for that is | :02:38. | :02:42. | |
that we have established international law and international | :02:42. | :02:47. | |
norms that say when you use these kinds of weapons you have the | :02:47. | :02:53. | |
potential of killing massive numbers of people in the most | :02:53. | :02:57. | |
inhumane way possible. The proliferation risks are so | :02:57. | :03:02. | |
significant that we don't want that genie out of the bottle. Is it | :03:02. | :03:06. | |
really viable to get hold of the chemical weapons? They are in | :03:06. | :03:12. | |
dozens of sites and people say the only real way to do it is go in on | :03:12. | :03:15. | |
the ground. A lot of people in the military dismiss the air strike | :03:15. | :03:17. | |
option. It is very difficult publicly for President Obama to | :03:17. | :03:20. | |
talk about that kind of thing at the moment. 2% of Americans in a | :03:20. | :03:24. | |
recent poll said they don't want America to get involved. But if | :03:24. | :03:31. | |
there was a mass loss of life, the calculation would change. Then | :03:31. | :03:35. | |
Special Forces types would go in and actually physically try to get | :03:35. | :03:41. | |
hands on those weapons. Clearly it can't be done without going in | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
there. Without someone getting their hands on it. That's clearly | :03:45. | :03:52. | |
going to involve military operation, whoever does them. Tough, I would | :03:52. | :03:58. | |
say, the intelligence clearly needs to be accurate. On top of that, the | :03:58. | :04:03. | |
military occupations to secure them are going to be contentious, and | :04:03. | :04:10. | |
they will be militarily difficult. Doable, but difficult. By difficult | :04:10. | :04:13. | |
he means the possibility of clashes with all kinds people, opposition | :04:13. | :04:17. | |
groups, Syrian army, other groups who might be in there. Very, very | :04:17. | :04:21. | |
tough. It is an option almost no- one wants to use. Some suggest in | :04:21. | :04:26. | |
the region, even if it was used it would be the likes of Jordan and | :04:26. | :04:30. | |
Turkey who would actually have to do it. Where does that leave us? | :04:30. | :04:34. | |
There are few options clearly remaining, but there are some, some | :04:34. | :04:37. | |
of them have been walked around the park. We know about the possibility | :04:37. | :04:41. | |
of sending more advanced weapons to the resistance, that kind of thing. | :04:41. | :04:44. | |
Exclusion zones have been put forward by the French. They all | :04:44. | :04:54. | |
have their complication though, according to Tony Cordesman. | :04:54. | :04:57. | |
think at the moment weapons transfers and sophisticated weapons | :04:57. | :05:01. | |
are still an option. To have any guarantee of security it means | :05:01. | :05:05. | |
putting Special Forces or covert operatives on the ground with | :05:05. | :05:10. | |
Syrian forces. Knowing all of the problems that could occur. If you | :05:10. | :05:15. | |
want a decisive option you need enough air power to convince the | :05:15. | :05:21. | |
Al-Assad regime that it cannot resist in terms of its air force | :05:21. | :05:25. | |
and surface-to-air missiles. If it does resist to actually take out | :05:25. | :05:30. | |
those defences which are far more serious than they were in Libya. | :05:30. | :05:34. | |
What are the risks of the US getting caught up in some wider | :05:34. | :05:37. | |
regional conflict then. We know Syria is a cockpit for all the | :05:37. | :05:41. | |
regional powers now, feeding in weapons and advice and people too. | :05:41. | :05:46. | |
For a long time are you mores about Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant | :05:46. | :05:49. | |
Shia movement getting involved there. There are claims they might | :05:49. | :05:55. | |
have up to 8,000 troops involved. Tonight the leader of Hezbollah | :05:55. | :06:01. | |
made an address on his party's TV station, in which he did say some | :06:01. | :06:06. | |
very forthright things. He upped the ante, he said Syria's | :06:06. | :06:10. | |
Government should not be allowed to fall to the opposition groups and | :06:10. | :06:15. | |
he implied that not only Hezbollah forces but maybe even Iranian | :06:15. | :06:23. | |
forces might get involved to prevent that happening. Before we | :06:23. | :06:27. | |
hear from other guests let's speak with General Keane, former Chief of | :06:27. | :06:32. | |
Staff in the United States army, he joins us from Washington. What do | :06:32. | :06:39. | |
you think is the most viable American option now? As you already | :06:39. | :06:43. | |
pointed out there are a number of challenges here with options. I | :06:43. | :06:47. | |
don't think it is realistic, given the limited use of chemical weapons | :06:47. | :06:53. | |
that the United States would take the risk of trying to seize these | :06:53. | :06:59. | |
stockpiles or chemical sites, so it would probably only be a realistic | :06:59. | :07:03. | |
option in terms of human casualties on their hand. In front of us, and | :07:03. | :07:06. | |
what the President will look for is something that is very limited. | :07:06. | :07:12. | |
Certainly I believe from the outset and it is still a viable option is | :07:12. | :07:16. | |
to arm the moderate weapons who have been vetted by the Central | :07:16. | :07:22. | |
Intelligence Agency. Yes there is risk because the radicals have | :07:22. | :07:26. | |
grown in influence and in power. But nonetheless, that is still a | :07:26. | :07:30. | |
viable option and the idea of not doing it, I think, is a far greater | :07:30. | :07:35. | |
risk. We could assist in the training of some of the moderate | :07:35. | :07:41. | |
rebel forces on the ground in Syria. We are doing this in Jordan, as we | :07:41. | :07:45. | |
speak on a limited basis with the CIA and some military forces. We | :07:45. | :07:49. | |
could increase that capability, probably using the CIA mostly to | :07:49. | :07:55. | |
assist them. Then I think in response to the red line there is a | :07:55. | :08:00. | |
limited option that the President could select if he so chooses. That | :08:00. | :08:10. | |
:08:10. | :08:12. | ||
is to strike some of Assad's airfields with civils and stealth | :08:12. | :08:16. | |
bombers -- cruise mifpls and stealth bombers, it would not be an | :08:16. | :08:20. | |
effort to systematically wipe out their air power T would be a | :08:20. | :08:25. | |
limited military option in response to the limited chemical attack. I'm | :08:25. | :08:30. | |
assuming the warning would be, if you continue with the use of | :08:30. | :08:40. | |
:08:40. | :08:42. | ||
chemicals then these attacks would be increased as well. Wouldn't | :08:42. | :08:47. | |
there be a serious danger of starting a war with Iran or | :08:47. | :08:51. | |
someone? The Iranians are in Syria, there is about 1,000 of them in | :08:51. | :08:56. | |
terms of trainers and advisers. Hezbollah is already there. It is a | :08:56. | :08:59. | |
complicated situation. I don't believe that's going to start a war | :08:59. | :09:03. | |
with the Iranians, but make no mistake about it, I think when the | :09:03. | :09:07. | |
United States and its allies look at the conflict in Syria, we must | :09:07. | :09:12. | |
consider the regional implications and we certainly have to consider | :09:12. | :09:16. | |
how important Syria is and Assad is to Iran in terms of their desire | :09:16. | :09:25. | |
for regional hegemony. And this coalition that they are putting | :09:25. | :09:28. | |
with themselves, Syria and Lebanon is something that is very important | :09:28. | :09:34. | |
to them geopolitically. Why is it any business of ours? I think, | :09:34. | :09:40. | |
first of all, the region matters. We want stability in that region. | :09:40. | :09:46. | |
The Syrian people as part of the Arab Spring have stood up and want | :09:46. | :09:51. | |
to change their Government because of the political, economic and | :09:51. | :09:54. | |
social injustice and repression that is taking place there. I think | :09:54. | :09:57. | |
right from the beginning we could have done much to help them. Never | :09:57. | :10:00. | |
having considered putting boots on the ground. I'm not suggesting that. | :10:00. | :10:06. | |
But I think if we had provided a kind of aid that they needed, which | :10:06. | :10:11. | |
is to deal with Assad's air power and with his armour formations in | :10:11. | :10:14. | |
terms of the kinds of weapons they needed, this stalemate we are in | :10:14. | :10:18. | |
right now would not be the case. I think the rebels would have had the | :10:18. | :10:22. | |
momentum they certainly need. I do believe it is in the interests of | :10:22. | :10:26. | |
the region that Assad goes. It is going to take more than rhetoric to | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
do that. He will have to be forced to do that and we will realise | :10:29. | :10:33. | |
there is a stalemate there, primarily because of his air power. | :10:33. | :10:39. | |
Thank you very much indeed General. With me now is Rory Stewart, a | :10:39. | :10:45. | |
former diplomat and deputy governor in Iraq, just after the country was | :10:45. | :10:55. | |
invaded, he's a Conservative MP. Paulo Dybala is a Iranian film | :10:55. | :11:00. | |
maker. And a former member of the Free Syrian Army. What would the | :11:00. | :11:03. | |
consequence of the action talked about by the general? My instinct | :11:03. | :11:05. | |
is the general is looking for something to do but it is not clear | :11:05. | :11:12. | |
what it would achieve. It is not clear whether it would hasten the | :11:12. | :11:17. | |
fall of the Assad regime. Do these people want weapons? What kind of | :11:17. | :11:24. | |
weapons and what difference would it make? Let's find out do you want | :11:24. | :11:28. | |
weapons? We are ready to ask for weapons. I go with the opinion of | :11:28. | :11:33. | |
General Keane now, which he described properly the situation. | :11:33. | :11:43. | |
Yes the FSA need weapons, they need arms. I wouldn't go for the option | :11:43. | :11:50. | |
that NATO come to Siria. But I would recommend that there would be | :11:50. | :11:56. | |
a steering committee on high levels between the NATO maybe and the FSA | :11:56. | :12:02. | |
commanders on high levels. So the co-ordination should be on the | :12:02. | :12:06. | |
level of commander. But the weapons have to be in the hands of the | :12:06. | :12:12. | |
rebels themselves. I would like to explain more about this because any | :12:12. | :12:16. | |
foreign intervention...Can I ask you a question that will occur to | :12:16. | :12:20. | |
everyone you are asking to support you, why is it any business of | :12:20. | :12:25. | |
ours? I'm sorry? Why is it our business, it is your business isn't | :12:25. | :12:35. | |
:12:35. | :12:35. | ||
it? Yes, but the lack of weapons in Syria is stopping the rebels from | :12:35. | :12:40. | |
ing the Syrian forces. Do we really need to achieve democracy in Syria, | :12:40. | :12:45. | |
we Syrians, by getting harms from the west and fighting each other, | :12:45. | :12:49. | |
fighting other Syrian fellows on the ground of Syria, and bringing | :12:49. | :12:53. | |
western invasion to Syria to get democracy and freedom? Is this what | :12:53. | :12:58. | |
really we want? This is not what the Arab and the Syrian revolution | :12:58. | :13:01. | |
started. The revolution started as peaceful demonstrations asking for | :13:01. | :13:05. | |
reform. And then we asked for Assad to leave, and now you are asking | :13:05. | :13:10. | |
arms, to arm rebels and to move Syria into a playground of fights | :13:10. | :13:14. | |
between Shia and Sunni, between the Free Syrian Army and the regime and | :13:14. | :13:18. | |
the Jihadis, and you are not thinking of the long-term results. | :13:18. | :13:23. | |
We can destroy Syria, is this what we want to achieve? Is this the | :13:23. | :13:29. | |
Syria we aim to have? Let her answer that. You accept the dangers | :13:29. | :13:35. | |
don't you? Sorry. You accept the risks of what you are asking to | :13:35. | :13:41. | |
happen? I need the time to explain if you may allow me. We did not | :13:41. | :13:47. | |
choose to use the weapons. The Assad forces and supporters were | :13:47. | :13:52. | |
the ones who chose this, you can say sectarian war. They made it | :13:52. | :13:57. | |
like this, they showed it like this. The rebels were carrying papers and | :13:57. | :14:03. | |
voicing only using their voices, but Assad was killing them for | :14:03. | :14:07. | |
seven or eight months they were forced to do that. I'm sorry, I | :14:07. | :14:13. | |
have to continue. Yus briefly -- just briefly, now come on? Now we | :14:13. | :14:19. | |
have two options, either arming the real moderate democratic people who | :14:19. | :14:25. | |
are calling for real freedom, which are the moderate people, not | :14:25. | :14:30. | |
anybody else. So far unfortunately their revolution has been | :14:30. | :14:35. | |
controlled by other then moderate Muslim people. The other option is | :14:35. | :14:39. | |
that political option where we have the moderate people in power, give | :14:39. | :14:45. | |
them funds, give them power for them to be united together, to work | :14:45. | :14:51. | |
together. Now they are controlled by extra -- emtreemist Muslims who | :14:51. | :14:56. | |
don't care for having real -- extremist Muslims who don't have | :14:56. | :15:00. | |
any real care for democracy. What would be the consequences, you | :15:00. | :15:04. | |
supported intervention in places like Kosovo, Bosnia and Libya? | :15:04. | :15:07. | |
Absolutely. I think the consequences here of arming are | :15:07. | :15:11. | |
going to be not very helpful. There are already an enormous number of | :15:11. | :15:16. | |
weapons, there is a lot of weapons coming in from Qatar and Saudi | :15:16. | :15:20. | |
Arabia. We pursue military options because they seem easier. But the | :15:20. | :15:24. | |
solution has to be political. We know what it looks like. We have to | :15:24. | :15:27. | |
get rid of Bashar al-Assad, and make sure the more moderate | :15:27. | :15:31. | |
elements come in and there is some kind of settlement and sort out the | :15:31. | :15:35. | |
region. All of this stuff is much easier said than done. It is | :15:35. | :15:41. | |
diplomacy and politics. Shipping out weapons is unlikely, I think. | :15:41. | :15:46. | |
We are way beyond the point where political negotiation can achieve | :15:46. | :15:49. | |
anything? The Syrian people are not part of the political solution. | :15:49. | :15:53. | |
There are all countries, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United States, | :15:53. | :15:58. | |
Turkey, all countries, there are millions of countries fight in | :15:58. | :16:05. | |
Syria, sibia, Egypt, where -- Libya, Egypt, where are the Syrian people | :16:05. | :16:09. | |
who started the revolution. There is a sectarian Civil War going on | :16:09. | :16:12. | |
in your country? This sectarian Civil War has been started because | :16:12. | :16:18. | |
of the extremists, the Jihadists, Salafi extremists on the ground we | :16:18. | :16:23. | |
live in Syria, Shia, Sunnis, Alawites, hand in hand, we never | :16:23. | :16:27. | |
had sectarian division. It started with this war, with this Jihadis on | :16:27. | :16:32. | |
the ground in Syria. I think this is something that I imagine both | :16:32. | :16:36. | |
Syrian contents would agree with, this is driven predominantly by | :16:36. | :16:41. | |
neighbours and outsiders. It is not that Syria is some cockpit of | :16:41. | :16:44. | |
ancient hatreds of sectarian groups. It is driven by the actions of | :16:44. | :16:48. | |
neighbouring countries. And indeed the function of people like Russia | :16:48. | :16:52. | |
and China and our own inability to deal with it. There has to be a | :16:52. | :16:56. | |
regional and political solution. Blaming the Syrian people and Shia | :16:56. | :17:01. | |
and Sunni conflict is not the way forward. Thwaiba Kanafani what do | :17:01. | :17:05. | |
you imagine is going to be the mechanism by which this conflict is | :17:05. | :17:09. | |
resolved, is there any alternative to a military solution? Yes. | :17:09. | :17:14. | |
Political solution where you need to really, again I will repeat, in | :17:14. | :17:20. | |
power the moderate Muslims. We did not take a chance to present | :17:20. | :17:25. | |
ourselves in Syria. A moment ago you were asking for weapons to be | :17:26. | :17:30. | |
supplied, when you talk about empowering moderates, what on earth | :17:30. | :17:37. | |
do you mean? In all aspects, you can empower them to have | :17:37. | :17:42. | |
positioning in legitimacy, give them some support.Y actually why do | :17:42. | :17:45. | |
we need, although that is Arab Spring started from the heart of | :17:45. | :17:49. | |
the Arab people n Egypt, and Libya and Syria, why do we need the west | :17:49. | :17:54. | |
in order to empower us to influence us in order to change our countries. | :17:54. | :17:57. | |
Why don't we have our own initiatives, why don't we sit | :17:57. | :18:00. | |
together, in spite of our differences as Syrians in order to | :18:00. | :18:04. | |
change the situation? Because President Assad has an air force, | :18:04. | :18:08. | |
artillery and a great deal more guns. The rebels have forces and | :18:08. | :18:14. | |
arms from Qatar and from Turkey and Saudi Arabia. No. They have nothing | :18:14. | :18:21. | |
like as many, and you know that perfectly well. There are suicide | :18:21. | :18:25. | |
bombs in Damascus and Syria, happened by the rebels, we know | :18:25. | :18:29. | |
there are weapons in the hand in the weapons, we know Al-Qaeda is | :18:29. | :18:36. | |
using weapons inside Syria. Very few weapons. I want to explore the | :18:36. | :18:41. | |
broader context, the collapse of a beautiful country and the collapse | :18:41. | :18:51. | |
into tyranny and Civil War are post-world war II Ice Age. Before | :18:51. | :18:54. | |
this there were other great powers t would help to understand now if | :18:54. | :19:01. | |
we understand then. We have the Syrian conflict affecting the whole | :19:01. | :19:05. | |
map of the Middle East. Syria's strive is sending ripples | :19:05. | :19:10. | |
across the region, a major refugee crisis has seen big flows of the | :19:10. | :19:17. | |
displaced, 448,000 to Jordan, a similar number of people heading to | :19:17. | :19:23. | |
Lebanon. 316,000 Syrians have gone to Turkey, and 137,000 to Iraq. | :19:23. | :19:28. | |
These figures are just the registered refugees. Some suggest | :19:28. | :19:30. | |
the real figure taking in those staying with relatives and friends | :19:30. | :19:35. | |
is double that, and there are more than a million thought to be | :19:35. | :19:40. | |
displaced within Syria itself. How many of them will ever go home? The | :19:40. | :19:47. | |
Balkan wars of the 1990s suggest many may not. Syria's multiethnic | :19:47. | :19:51. | |
society may already have been doomed. I think very difficult. And | :19:51. | :19:58. | |
we may have already passed that point. To what extent if we had | :19:58. | :20:02. | |
collectively pleaded differently. I know this is taking an outsider's | :20:02. | :20:07. | |
view in terms of finding a solution which might have retained power for | :20:07. | :20:14. | |
the Alawites but under a different leader. If that had been possible | :20:14. | :20:19. | |
then perhaps the delicate balances could have been maintained. | :20:19. | :20:23. | |
modern settlement of the Middle East owes much to the Ottoman | :20:23. | :20:28. | |
Empire, they presided over different religions, providing an | :20:28. | :20:36. | |
overarching power and serving as a convenient process for blame. Some | :20:36. | :20:41. | |
of the ottoman boundaries confirm closely to the states that then | :20:41. | :20:46. | |
emerged. Their prove minces of Mosul, Baghdad and Basra formed the | :20:46. | :20:51. | |
basis of modern Iraq. In Syria something similar happened too. | :20:51. | :20:54. | |
When the Ottoman Empire collapsed, the drawing of boundaries led | :20:55. | :21:00. | |
Britain and France to draw up their mandate territories according to | :21:00. | :21:05. | |
the Sykes Picot agreement, they reached that in secret in 1916. | :21:05. | :21:10. | |
Iraq, Jordan and Palestine were created under British influence, | :21:10. | :21:14. | |
Lebanon and Syria under the French. That also cleared the way, after | :21:14. | :21:19. | |
the First World War for Egyptian independent and Saudi Arabia too | :21:19. | :21:24. | |
emerged at that time. The post ottoman dispensation survived well | :21:24. | :21:29. | |
in most of the Middle East for decades. But ultimately | :21:29. | :21:32. | |
nationalistic secular regimes, despite their repression of | :21:32. | :21:42. | |
religious groups failed. variations here Are the size of the | :21:42. | :21:47. | |
Sunni, Shia communities are so different, the economies are so | :21:47. | :21:51. | |
different. What they all do have in common, unfortunately, is the | :21:51. | :21:56. | |
failure of secular movements and secular ideaologies. There is no | :21:56. | :22:01. | |
clear reason that anyone would trust a secular or semi-secular | :22:01. | :22:11. | |
:22:11. | :22:12. | ||
Government in all of the worst cases. Iran is the powerhouse of | :22:12. | :22:16. | |
Shi'ite theology, but Arab Shia form important communities from | :22:16. | :22:22. | |
southern Iraq to Bahrain, eastern Saudi Arabia and Lebanon. | :22:22. | :22:24. | |
Historically they had difficult relationships with ruling elites. | :22:24. | :22:30. | |
In Iraq though they have become the rulers following the American | :22:30. | :22:34. | |
invasion. There it is now the Sunni minority that considers itself | :22:34. | :22:39. | |
oppressed and the protests around the city of Ramadi are, some fear, | :22:39. | :22:44. | |
now growing into a new insurgency against the Baghdad Government. In | :22:44. | :22:48. | |
Syria it is the Sunni who are poised to take power after decades | :22:48. | :22:54. | |
in which a religious minority, the Alawites, have wielded it. Here, as | :22:54. | :23:00. | |
in Iraq, the reversal of the old order is a bloody process, with | :23:00. | :23:05. | |
regional implications only now becoming clear. Still with us is | :23:05. | :23:09. | |
the former diplomat and Conservative MP Rory Stewart, and | :23:09. | :23:14. | |
the Syrian film maker, Halla Diyab, also joining me is a Syrian | :23:14. | :23:19. | |
academic, who co-founded the group Building the Syrian State. What do | :23:19. | :23:23. | |
you think realistically are the chances of Syria remain intact | :23:23. | :23:28. | |
after all this? It is declining all the day. The positions are getting | :23:28. | :23:32. | |
increase league polarised with the international element and inside | :23:32. | :23:37. | |
Syria. The conflict that started political is devolving into an | :23:37. | :23:40. | |
armed confrontation and Civil War. Out of Civil War you usually get | :23:40. | :23:45. | |
divisions. The quicker we head for a political pollution the less | :23:45. | :23:48. | |
chance that Syria will be divided. There have been Civil Wars in that | :23:48. | :23:54. | |
part of the world, and one thinks of Lebanon it is substantially | :23:54. | :23:59. | |
still intact as a single entity. What do you think, will it stay in | :23:59. | :24:03. | |
one piece? Lebanon solved it through an enormous amount of | :24:03. | :24:07. | |
decentralisation. Secondly, although the borders are artificial | :24:07. | :24:11. | |
as was pointed out, they were invented after the Second World War, | :24:11. | :24:17. | |
a lot of time has passed since then, people feel a sense of nationalism, | :24:17. | :24:20. | |
with the exception of the Kurds people are not pushing for a | :24:20. | :24:22. | |
separate country, they are still fighting for control of Syria | :24:22. | :24:27. | |
itself. Will the country remain intact? I think that Syria has the | :24:27. | :24:31. | |
potential to be a model for a future Arab democracy. Because if | :24:31. | :24:37. | |
you look to Syria in comparison to Saudi Arabia or Libya or Egypt, the | :24:37. | :24:40. | |
Syrian people are very civic moderate Muslims, and moderate | :24:40. | :24:45. | |
people in general who lived actually in different sects like | :24:45. | :24:49. | |
Alawite, Shia and Sunnis, in harmony before the crisis. One does | :24:49. | :24:54. | |
wonder why they are killing each other? This kind of sectarian war | :24:54. | :24:59. | |
has been used by political agenda, by the forces which are fighting on | :24:59. | :25:05. | |
the ground in order to divide people. So ...All That happened is | :25:05. | :25:11. | |
it bubbled up once the secular state under a dictator fell apart? | :25:11. | :25:15. | |
It is not only that, it also happens in Iraq, for example, which | :25:15. | :25:19. | |
is the majority are Shia and it is controlled by a minority which is | :25:19. | :25:25. | |
Sunni, and in Syria we have the majority Sunni controlled by a | :25:25. | :25:30. | |
minority which is Alawite. important thing is there are | :25:30. | :25:36. | |
important fault lines. It takes neighbours in conflict to exploit | :25:36. | :25:40. | |
them. In other words they are there, but Lebanon was peaceful for 800 | :25:40. | :25:50. | |
years before people stirred things up. The fact that people are | :25:50. | :25:53. | |
different sects doesn't matter until people stir up the cauldron. | :25:53. | :25:57. | |
That is why we need a new social contract in Siria. We have a rich | :25:57. | :26:02. | |
society, with faut lines very deep in history, with issues that | :26:02. | :26:07. | |
haven't been resolved properly, and some feel others are a threat to | :26:07. | :26:11. | |
their existence, and rights. We never had a chance to establish | :26:11. | :26:14. | |
through dialogue a proper relationship with the other | :26:14. | :26:20. | |
components because we went from colonisation straight into | :26:20. | :26:23. | |
dictatorship. We are living under a strong regime, this is why we live | :26:24. | :26:29. | |
together in peace. The power of the regime is diminishing and there is | :26:29. | :26:33. | |
a political conflict exploited by regional and international actors | :26:33. | :26:38. | |
turning this into a proxy war. So we have an armed confrontation that | :26:38. | :26:42. | |
will certainly exacerbate these fault lines. How many people have | :26:42. | :26:47. | |
fled the country as refugees? Millions. It is about 3.5 million | :26:47. | :26:50. | |
the estimate. There is a very good chance many of those will never go | :26:50. | :26:53. | |
home? I think they will go home. They will never feel home but in | :26:53. | :26:57. | |
the country where they came from. I want to go back to Lebanon, we have | :26:57. | :27:01. | |
to learn from the way the war stopped in Lebanon. Because I think | :27:01. | :27:05. | |
it is still a Civil War in waiting. Because they stopped the war but | :27:05. | :27:10. | |
they did not resolve the problem. They froze it. So the same warlords, | :27:10. | :27:14. | |
the same division and the same system. We missed a very important | :27:15. | :27:19. | |
point, it is the Islamic movement risinging post September 11th and | :27:19. | :27:23. | |
after that the war on terror, after the appearance of all these Islamic | :27:23. | :27:29. | |
leaders like Nasrella or Amir in Lebanon, they become the | :27:29. | :27:33. | |
alternative to political and social leaders the communities. People in | :27:33. | :27:36. | |
the Middle East in Syria and Egypt and Libya are now driven by their | :27:36. | :27:41. | |
identities as Muslims. And that really creates this sectarian war | :27:41. | :27:45. | |
in Syria between you as Alawite and you as Shia. People are fighting | :27:46. | :27:51. | |
not within their Syrian identity any more, they see themselves as | :27:51. | :27:56. | |
Alawite, as Shia, as Salafi and this is all the result of the | :27:56. | :28:01. | |
rising of the Islamic movement. wouldn't be surprised if you looked | :28:01. | :28:08. | |
at the arbitary drawings on maps by sites by many people to find ethnic | :28:08. | :28:12. | |
identities were stronger than national identities. You were | :28:12. | :28:16. | |
saying you thought the national identities were very well | :28:16. | :28:20. | |
established? Over 90 years a lot becomes established, but the Kurds | :28:20. | :28:25. | |
are still looking for separation, but most people don't want to break | :28:26. | :28:29. | |
national borders. Although one thing we need to be careful with is | :28:29. | :28:33. | |
not to fall into the same trap ourselves as seeing everything in | :28:33. | :28:38. | |
terms of Sunni and Shia conflict and seeing Syria as part of Iran. | :28:38. | :28:43. | |
What do we define by nationalism. I spent my high school in Syria that | :28:43. | :28:50. | |
we were fed and learned that the ethics in Syria to be a citizen is | :28:50. | :28:55. | |
to worship one leader and one nation. There is no citizenship | :28:55. | :28:59. | |
within the state as we have in England. You have no right to | :28:59. | :29:02. | |
criticise the state or elect your President, you have no right to | :29:02. | :29:07. | |
build and to be part of the state. That is what creates a gap between | :29:07. | :29:11. | |
Syrian people and their national identity. They find an alternative | :29:11. | :29:14. | |
identity which is the Islamic identity with the sectarian | :29:14. | :29:17. | |
identity which leads now, now it is an explosion in Syria. | :29:17. | :29:23. | |
Do you think that sectarianism is superseding the idea of Arab | :29:23. | :29:27. | |
nationalism? No. The Islamic identity, I mean, I'm so sorry? | :29:27. | :29:30. | |
don't have a problem with the Islamic identity or any other | :29:30. | :29:35. | |
identity if it doesn't try to impose itself through violent means | :29:35. | :29:40. | |
and by dictating the rights of the others. I think any ideology should | :29:40. | :29:46. | |
have the right to be in the society in a peaceful way. The biggest | :29:46. | :29:51. | |
problem is it became a violent way of imposinging its ideology. The | :29:51. | :29:55. | |
regime with all that is happening now, we are discussing the Shia, | :29:55. | :29:58. | |
Alawite and Sunni issue, the heart of the conflict is a political one. | :29:58. | :30:02. | |
This regime is a dictatorship. That is the problem with the regime, it | :30:02. | :30:08. | |
is not because Bashar al-Assad is an Alawite, he is a dictator. | :30:08. | :30:13. | |
a secular dictator? He is an Alawite with full power. We want a | :30:13. | :30:17. | |
new institution where the President doesn't -- constitution where the | :30:17. | :30:21. | |
President doesn't have full power. The people are facing one of the | :30:21. | :30:25. | |
cruellest regimes ever existing. Regional actors are exploiting this, | :30:26. | :30:29. | |
war ends with a military victory or political decision. Military | :30:30. | :30:33. | |
victory is not imminent or a solution. We want international and | :30:33. | :30:37. | |
local and regional actors to head very quickly to a political | :30:37. | :30:41. | |
solution before this turns into a Civil War that burns the entire | :30:41. | :30:44. | |
region. We do have three big advantages here that we don't have | :30:44. | :30:47. | |
in places like Afghanistan and Iraq, by we I mean Britain and the United | :30:47. | :30:51. | |
States, we are not on the ground, first low, that is really important. | :30:51. | :30:55. | |
Secondly we have countries like Russia that we should be focusing | :30:55. | :30:58. | |
on, and we know what the solution looks like. The solution looks like | :30:58. | :31:02. | |
getting rid of Bashar al-Assad, but keeping some of the elements of the | :31:02. | :31:07. | |
old Government and combining it with the moderate of the opposition. | :31:07. | :31:11. | |
I disagree. My problem is not Bashar al-Assad, if he stands down | :31:11. | :31:15. | |
and hands it to the another person the problem isn't solved. The new | :31:15. | :31:18. | |
one will have full power. The position of the President is the | :31:18. | :31:24. | |
problem, with the constitution, the powers, any new person is a | :31:24. | :31:28. | |
dictator, he can do what he wants. The President has full security, | :31:29. | :31:31. | |
monetary everything power. That is the heart of the problem. We should | :31:31. | :31:35. | |
see it from a political point of view, not Bashar al-Assad's point | :31:35. | :31:39. | |
of view, an Alawite point of view. Absolutely, equally we don't want | :31:39. | :31:44. | |
to exclude anyone. The great advantage unlike Afghanistan and | :31:44. | :31:48. | |
Iraq is the British Government isn't committed in the same way. We | :31:48. | :31:51. | |
can allow compromise between former elements of the Government and the | :31:51. | :31:54. | |
opposition and bring the two together. Time is short? We have to | :31:54. | :31:59. | |
get players, not former members of the regime, the actors with blood | :31:59. | :32:02. | |
or water on their hands they have to come to the table and roach | :32:02. | :32:06. | |
agreement. The power is not in the actors' hands but the regime and | :32:06. | :32:10. | |
the rebels. So the people who should sit and debate are both | :32:10. | :32:13. | |
sides of the conflict. Thank you very much indeed. | :32:13. | :32:17. | |
The first major player in one of the big American sports to come out | :32:17. | :32:21. | |
as a gay man has been rather overwhelmed by the support he has | :32:21. | :32:25. | |
had since doing so. He picked up the phone to find for example that | :32:25. | :32:29. | |
President Obama was calling to wish him well. In a strange way it tells | :32:29. | :32:33. | |
us more about the state of sport than anything else, that someone | :32:33. | :32:36. | |
doing what so many others have done without getting calls from the | :32:36. | :32:44. | |
President should get this sort of reception. | :32:44. | :32:48. | |
If you were a footballer and had 30,000 people looking for any | :32:48. | :32:51. | |
excuse to berate you from the terraces, would you come out as | :32:51. | :32:56. | |
gay? That is the question that sportsmen and women who happened to | :32:56. | :32:59. | |
be attracted to the same-sex have had to wrestle with. It wasn't | :32:59. | :33:05. | |
always like this. In ancient Greece sporting performance and machismo | :33:05. | :33:10. | |
were accompanied with perfectly acceptable homoerotic undertones, | :33:10. | :33:15. | |
athletes even competed in the nude. Today there are only a handful of | :33:15. | :33:19. | |
top British sports players openly gay. Gareth Thomas, the former | :33:19. | :33:23. | |
Welsh rugby player is perhaps the best known of them to come out | :33:23. | :33:28. | |
while playing. There are no league footballers among them. The last | :33:28. | :33:35. | |
well known footballer to come out in the UK was Justin Fashenu, who | :33:35. | :33:40. | |
took his own life after bog public. With attitudes on the terraces far | :33:40. | :33:44. | |
from reconstructed, it doesn't look like that will change any time soon. | :33:44. | :33:51. | |
With us now is Justin Fashinu's knees, who presented the | :33:51. | :33:57. | |
documentary Britain's Gay Footballers, and John Amaechi, the | :33:57. | :34:01. | |
former NBA basketball star who came out after he retired. In the case | :34:01. | :34:06. | |
of your own uncle, who took his own life, what conclusion do you come | :34:06. | :34:12. | |
to from that experience? Well, I just think that it was a tough time | :34:12. | :34:18. | |
when he was playing football. That maybe you know fans and the FA and | :34:18. | :34:22. | |
other sporting people weren't as supportive as someone would be now. | :34:22. | :34:27. | |
I think Justin went through a lot, not just homophobia, he also went | :34:28. | :34:33. | |
through racism, I think at the time he did not have a good time at all. | :34:33. | :34:39. | |
John Amaechi, this reticence about declaring your sexuality, how | :34:39. | :34:43. | |
widespread is it? It is incredibly widespread, we know this because | :34:43. | :34:48. | |
the list of "out" athletes or former athletes is 27 people in | :34:48. | :34:51. | |
American sport. When you think of the number of people participating | :34:51. | :34:55. | |
over the last X number of decades it is a remarkably tiny percentage. | :34:55. | :34:59. | |
It is worth pointing out that when people talk about this, especially | :34:59. | :35:02. | |
with American sports, there is a different backdrop there. Here we | :35:02. | :35:08. | |
are on the cusp of marriage equity. Where as in America there are still | :35:08. | :35:11. | |
29 states you can be fired for being gay. There are 50 states | :35:11. | :35:14. | |
where you have no guarantee of being able to rent a house, for | :35:14. | :35:18. | |
example, if the person who is renting it out doesn't want to rent | :35:18. | :35:21. | |
to gay people. There is a very different backdrop in America at | :35:21. | :35:26. | |
the moment, which makes what Jason has done even more brave, I think. | :35:26. | :35:30. | |
You council counsels him, or encouraged him at the very least, | :35:30. | :35:34. | |
isn't the experience of the reaction to this, that actually it | :35:34. | :35:39. | |
is really no big deal in the world at large, but there is something | :35:39. | :35:44. | |
specific about the sporting world? Yes, sport is particularly culpable. | :35:44. | :35:49. | |
The reality is that Jason Collins now sits on the crest of a wave of | :35:49. | :35:51. | |
public opinion that is most certainly moving in the direction | :35:51. | :35:56. | |
of equity and fairness and getting on with playing ball. But | :35:56. | :36:01. | |
unfortunately those people who run the sport are essentially still | :36:01. | :36:05. | |
dinosaurs. They are Neanderthals. What do you think about this, there | :36:05. | :36:09. | |
is something different about sport. It is no big deal if a businessman, | :36:09. | :36:13. | |
a politician, someone at the BBC or wherever comes out, it is no big | :36:13. | :36:17. | |
deal at all. No-one thinks anything of it. But some how in sport it is | :36:17. | :36:21. | |
different? Well yeah, I could add that specially in football, I feel | :36:21. | :36:27. | |
that it is particularly hard. I mean rugby, speaking to Gareth | :36:27. | :36:32. | |
Thomas, it seems to be more warming, the effect of him coming out seems | :36:32. | :36:35. | |
not to be that big. If someone in football came out I do think it | :36:35. | :36:39. | |
would have a different impact. is the problem in football? To be | :36:39. | :36:45. | |
honest I think it is the machoism, we are more interested in the | :36:45. | :36:47. | |
footballer's life, who the footballer goes out with, how he | :36:47. | :36:51. | |
wears his hair. It has become not the sport any more, it is more out | :36:51. | :36:54. | |
of the sportk and we are concerned with his private life. Who cares | :36:54. | :36:58. | |
about the private life, at the end of the day he plays a sport. Why | :36:58. | :37:03. | |
would we care? John Amaechi what do you think it tells us about soccer? | :37:03. | :37:07. | |
It tells us it is behind the times, behind the curve, and certainly | :37:07. | :37:11. | |
behind the trends of history. The people who are running football | :37:11. | :37:14. | |
right now, they are the most, football in Britain is one of the | :37:14. | :37:20. | |
most powerful sporting entities, and right now they are like, I | :37:20. | :37:27. | |
don't know, the Saatchi & Saatchi of sport, they are good at | :37:27. | :37:30. | |
producing posters about equality but they are very bad at changing | :37:30. | :37:34. | |
the culture of sport. That is not just homophobia but racism and | :37:34. | :37:38. | |
sexism too. There has been tremendous progress in this country | :37:38. | :37:43. | |
on the question of racism on the terraces and racism on the pitch | :37:43. | :37:45. | |
hasn't there? There is something specific about sexuality in | :37:45. | :37:49. | |
football? We can say there has been some progress, but the idea that | :37:49. | :37:56. | |
right now we are in a situation where there are people, captains of | :37:56. | :38:00. | |
English teams who have been going through all these supposed | :38:00. | :38:04. | |
programmes to make sure that everybody understands fairness and | :38:04. | :38:07. | |
equality, who are themselves accused of being racist, doesn't | :38:07. | :38:12. | |
really speak to them getting a handle on this. There is anti- | :38:12. | :38:18. | |
semitism, there is racism still, there is sexism still. That is he | :38:18. | :38:24. | |
have dent. The idea that homophobia is rife still is just a foregone | :38:24. | :38:27. | |
conclusion in that environment. People will say there is a class | :38:27. | :38:32. | |
element to this? To be honest with you I don't really think it is | :38:32. | :38:37. | |
about class. What is it then, what is specific to football? Honestly I | :38:37. | :38:41. | |
have been trying to understand it myself. I really do not understand | :38:41. | :38:47. | |
it. We all know it is great, it is a macho hard sport. My dad was in | :38:47. | :38:50. | |
the Crazy Gang. It is hard sport. But then who cares about their | :38:50. | :38:54. | |
private life. This is my question, why does it come back to their | :38:54. | :39:00. | |
private life. This is my question. It is not their private lives. It | :39:00. | :39:05. | |
is not the private life. You can't operate on this system where if you | :39:05. | :39:09. | |
are straight and you hold hands with somebody it is no big deal or | :39:09. | :39:13. | |
just a snapshot, but if you are gay and you hold hands with someone it | :39:13. | :39:18. | |
is some radical activism or something worthy of bringing the | :39:18. | :39:21. | |
house down. It still matters. As much as reasonable people believe | :39:21. | :39:25. | |
it shouldn't, it still matters. As such the people in power in sport | :39:25. | :39:30. | |
are the ones that have to take action. | :39:30. | :39:34. | |
There are barely 30 hours to go before the lucky folk of England | :39:34. | :39:38. | |
and Anglesey have the chance to do their democratic duety. Those who | :39:38. | :39:43. | |
survived the tension get to choose councils or unitary authorities, or | :39:43. | :39:47. | |
in a couple of places their mayors on Thursday. In past form there | :39:47. | :39:52. | |
will be many of us who fail to exercise the right for which our | :39:52. | :39:55. | |
ancestors died. But you give our political editor the choice between | :39:55. | :40:05. | |
:40:05. | :40:08. | ||
any election and a box of chocolate truffles, she heads for Derbyshire. | :40:08. | :40:13. | |
For me, as farmer, I'm found to the farm and the work, I have had | :40:13. | :40:17. | |
nobody visiting and asking my opinion, or flyers through the | :40:17. | :40:24. | |
letterbox. I'm very unaffair of what is going on. On Thursday local | :40:24. | :40:29. | |
democracy comes to the fields and Dales of England and Wales. These | :40:29. | :40:38. | |
are the county council elections, the Tory shires. The last time barn | :40:39. | :40:43. | |
doors were knocked, 26 of them returned a Conservative majority. | :40:43. | :40:48. | |
OutLuiz Eduardoly it is hard to see the paraphernalia of elections, but | :40:48. | :40:54. | |
a serious -- out Luiz Eduardoly it is hard to see the paraphernalia | :40:54. | :41:04. | |
:41:04. | :41:08. | ||
was elections but a serious fight is on. On the ground the Tories are | :41:08. | :41:12. | |
talking about local issues, but in the East Midlands, there was | :41:12. | :41:15. | |
pronounced swing to the Conservatives in the 2010 general | :41:15. | :41:18. | |
election. Had it been repeated across the country, the Tories | :41:18. | :41:22. | |
would have won a majority. Three years into Government that | :41:22. | :41:27. | |
relationship is being tested. finding on the doorsteps that | :41:27. | :41:33. | |
people are accepting the situation that the country is in and are | :41:33. | :41:37. | |
accepting of the measures that the Government is currently taking. | :41:37. | :41:44. | |
That's the coalition Government there is an understanding that the | :41:44. | :41:49. | |
cuts are necessary. The Liberal Democrats are expected to do better | :41:49. | :41:53. | |
than their current vote share, perhaps winning about 15% of the | :41:53. | :41:57. | |
vote on Thursday. There may be some wins against Tories in the south | :41:57. | :42:01. | |
west. But there may also be some heavy losses to Labour. When people | :42:01. | :42:05. | |
see that they have �600 in their back pocket and we have lowered the | :42:05. | :42:08. | |
threshold of income tax, those sorts of things played very well | :42:08. | :42:11. | |
with families who have got money to stretch basically. They see the | :42:11. | :42:21. | |
:42:21. | :42:23. | ||
difference that is going to make. This parliamentary constituency of | :42:23. | :42:27. | |
Chesterfield used to be Lib Dem until a surprise defeat in the last | :42:27. | :42:33. | |
general election turned it Labour. Holding the parliamentary eat, | :42:33. | :42:39. | |
Labour now has high hopes for the - - seat, Labour now has high hopes | :42:39. | :42:45. | |
for the County Council. The last time the councils were up for grab, | :42:45. | :42:48. | |
it was 2009, Gordon Brown's leadership was in cry I s and | :42:48. | :42:51. | |
across the country Labour suffered serious defeats N a place like | :42:51. | :42:55. | |
Derbyshire, where Labour had held the council for 28 years, the | :42:55. | :42:58. | |
Tories capitalised on Gordon Brown's unpopularity and the | :42:58. | :43:05. | |
council went Tory for the first time. Now, four years on with a new | :43:05. | :43:09. | |
Labour leader, Ed Miliband, Labour must reclaim Derbyshire if it is to | :43:09. | :43:17. | |
show it has healed the wounds of the Brown-era. Tom Watson has | :43:17. | :43:20. | |
certainly put rubber to the road, but Labour is, unsurprisingly, | :43:20. | :43:26. | |
playing down the chances of big wins. Politicians always engage in | :43:26. | :43:29. | |
expectation management, all I can say is having got 13% of the | :43:29. | :43:34. | |
national vote in 2009 we will make progress. If we can win a couple of | :43:34. | :43:37. | |
hundred seats then that would be great. If we could win 250 that | :43:37. | :43:43. | |
would be excellent for us. Who knows in these elections. | :43:43. | :43:46. | |
Independent experts say Labour should win between 300 and 350 | :43:46. | :43:51. | |
seats on Thursday. Seats in the south like Dartford and Harlow. If | :43:51. | :43:56. | |
they can't do this the suspicion will harden that Ed Miliband's One | :43:56. | :44:00. | |
Nation Labour Party is actually no such thing. Newsnight also | :44:00. | :44:04. | |
understands that it is far from certain Labour will regain some of | :44:04. | :44:10. | |
the big northern County Councils. Don't let people say that we are | :44:10. | :44:15. | |
racist. You need to be counter acting that. We are not racist at | :44:15. | :44:19. | |
all. Just because we want to control the immigration on the | :44:19. | :44:23. | |
borders and whatever. UKIP are fielding candidates in 73% of | :44:23. | :44:28. | |
council seats this time round. That's compared to the 25% that | :44:28. | :44:32. | |
they fielded in 2009. Who says we shouldn't take a County Council of | :44:32. | :44:35. | |
a big place like this. Maybe not this year, I wouldn't disagree with | :44:35. | :44:39. | |
you. But we will get candidates in and they will start to make a | :44:39. | :44:46. | |
Conservative four years ago. The idea you can make inroads on that | :44:46. | :44:53. | |
is mad, isn't it? No, not at all. People are supporting us in ever | :44:53. | :44:56. | |
greater numbers. But UKIP haven't persuaded Robert. I am considering | :44:56. | :44:59. | |
at the moment voting Conservative. Not just because it is the existing | :44:59. | :45:04. | |
council, but I do know them. They have relatives who are farming I | :45:04. | :45:07. | |
know they are sympathetic to the rural and farming vote, which is | :45:07. | :45:12. | |
very important to me. Obviously as a full-time farmer my biggest | :45:12. | :45:18. | |
issues are ago cull ly -- agriculturally related. These | :45:18. | :45:21. | |
elections in mostly rural England won't indicate very much about the | :45:21. | :45:26. | |
next general election, but they may dictate the run-up to it. Whichever | :45:26. | :45:31. | |
party has a bad Thursday will probably also have a bad summer as | :45:31. | :45:36. | |
unhappy MPs demand that their party sharpens up. | :45:36. | :45:43. | |
But there is one racing certainty, UKIP will do OK, a jolly place to | :45:43. | :45:48. | |
be this Friday will probably be Nigel Farage's local. | :45:48. | :45:52. | |
There is a link to the full list of all the glorious candidates | :45:52. | :45:56. | |
standing in Derbyshire on the Newsnight website. Tomorrow | :45:56. | :46:01. | |
morning's front pages now, the Telegraph leads with the news that | :46:01. | :46:04. | |
some gold people will be fitted with GPS tags so the police don't | :46:04. | :46:14. | |
:46:14. | :46:14. | ||
Apology for the loss of subtitles for 41 seconds | :46:14. | :46:56. | |
spend too much time looking for That's enough excitement for one | :46:56. | :47:01. | |
day. There is a tide in the affairs of men and women which taken at the | :47:01. | :47:11. | |
:47:11. | :47:35. | ||
Good evening, over the next couple of days southern areas holding on | :47:35. | :47:38. | |
to the best of the dry and bright weather. Further north always a bit | :47:38. | :47:41. | |
more cloud with some rain. We have got this weak weather front moving | :47:41. | :47:44. | |
south on Wednesday. Thickening the cloud across northern eing and | :47:44. | :47:50. | |
Wales for the afternoon. A bit -- England and Wales for the afternoon. | :47:50. | :47:54. | |
Still the potential for some showers in the north and west. | :47:54. | :48:00. | |
Mainland Scotland with the sunshine for the central lowlands lifting | :48:00. | :48:04. | |
temperatures to 11 degrees. Overcast for northern England with | :48:04. | :48:08. | |
the odd spot of rain. East Anglia and the south-east corner, like the | :48:08. | :48:14. | |
last couple of days, after a chilly start temperatures recovering to | :48:14. | :48:18. | |
15-16. The sunshine along the south coast, it could be hazy for south- | :48:18. | :48:21. | |
west England later in the day. More cloud in Wales. With the greatest | :48:21. | :48:25. | |
risk of seeing rain across North Wales. More cloud in Cardiff, I | :48:25. | :48:29. | |
think the day should stay dry with temperatures of 14. By the time we | :48:29. | :48:33. | |
get to Thursday in the north we are keeping more cloud, perhaps some | :48:33. | :48:37. | |
rain arriving again in Inverness later on in the day. Further south, | :48:37. | :48:43. | |
always some sunshine at times, we have top temperatures 14-15 degrees. | :48:43. | :48:46. |