07/05/2013 Newsnight

$:/STARTFEED. Tonight extraordinary scenes in ordinary America.

Jubilation as three women and a girl are released after years held

captive in suburban Ohio. Rescued by a neighbour who thought he was

hearing the screams of a domestic row. I saw this girl she's going

nuts on the door, I'm like what's your problem, are you stuck, just

open the door. She said she couldn't, he has it looked.

speak to the family of one of the victims.

In the last couple of hours Russia and America have called for an

International Conference on Syria, could it be too late to stop a

regional war. If Israel is now resorting to air

strikes to stop Lebanon's Hezbollah getting advanced weapons, this

won't be the last attack, and a wider conflict may already be under

way. Former Chancellor, Lord Lawson

mocks the Prime Minister's Europe strategy and says that Britain

should leave the EU. The renegotiation is just a fibleaf

I'm afraid. Will Number Ten be forced to come up with a new policy

all over again. We speak to two Conservative MPs.

Is high-speed rail the answer to the north-south divide, in

Andalucia they have had it for years, but the money has stayed in

Madrid. I want to find out if after 20 years of high-speed rail has any

of this actually worked? Help me get out, I have been in

here a long time, the dozen words that signalled the end of a decade-

long ordeal, three women held hostage in an Ohio basement. Amanda

Berry, Gina DeJesus and Michele Knight disappeared from the same

Cleveland neighbourhood some ten years ago. They were found all

together just a couple of miles from where they had gone missing.

Two had been at the centre of a major police search, the third had

virtually fallen off the radar. Tonight praise for the women's

bravery as authorities admit they didn't have a clue. Questions into

how police failed to misthe alarms that neighbours had -- miss the

alarms that neighbours had raised up to two years earlier. We will

hear from a relative of Amanda Berry who is critical of the police

search for her family member. It was a prison for a decade,

nobody knew. Neighbours barbecued with the owner, there were no

complaints to police. But inside this house three women were kept

captive since disappearing from Cleveland streets around ten years

ago. Amanda Berry was 16 when she went missing on her way back from

work in April 2003. Her ordeal ended yesterday when she seized a

chance to escape. In hospital she was reunited with her family. With

her a six-year-old girl found at the house. Amanda Berry's daughter.

The real hero here is Amanda. I mean she is the real hero. She's

the one that got this rolling. We're just following her lead,

without her none of us would be here today. After a neighbour heard

her cry for help, Amanda Berry made a frantic phone call to police.

Hello police, help me, I'm Amanda Berry. You need police, fire or

ambulance. I need police. What's going on there? I have been

kidnapped and I have been missing for ten years and I'm here, I'm

free now. OK stay there with those neighbours. Can you help me, please.

You need to come now. We will get there as soon as you get a car open.

I need them now before he gets back. I heard her screaming, I'm eating a

McDonalds, I come outside and I see this girl going nuts trying to get

out of a house. I go on the porch. I go on the porch and she says

"help me get out, I have been here a long time". So I figured it was

domestic violence dispute, I open the door and we can't get in that

way because how the door is, it is so much that a body can't fit

through it only a hand, so we kicked the bottom, and she comes

out with the little girl and she says call 911, my name is Amanda

Berry. Also discovered in the house was Gina DeJesus, she was 14 when

she disappeared on her way home from school. Another woman, Michele

Knight, was also found. All three were last seen on Lorain Avenue in

Cleveland between 2003 and 12004. The house where they were held is

across the city on Seymour avenue. It belongs to this man, Ariel

Castro, a former school bus driver, police have arrested him and his

two brothers. In this stunned neighbourhood everyone is asking

the same question, how could they not know. The captive women were

never seen. There was no noise, there were no clues. Although one

neighbour had her concerns about the house. When I found out there

was a little girl up there that I saw her, I questioned them, he

shouldn't have a little girl because he doesn't have any women

in there, how could there be a four or five-year-old in the house.

There are serious questions for the police to, why didn't they join the

dots between these disappearances. They actually visited the address

twice. Once in 2000 because of a fight in the street, and again in

204 after Ariel Castro left a child una-- 204 after Ariel Castro left a

child unattended on a bus he was driving. Police knocked on the door

but nobody answered. For now there are no ce cim nations, only relief

-- recriminations, only relief. These three young ladies have

provided us with the ultimate definition of survival and

perseverance. The healing can now begin. The three women have now

been released from hospital. Reunited with families who doubted

they would ever see them again. I spoke a little earlier to Tina

Miller, the cousin of Amanda Berry, one of the three women rescued

yesterday. I asked her how the family learned Amanda had been

freed? I was actually at my son's yesterday. My sister called me on

the phone and someone actually had called her and told her that Amanda

of alive. This is what news my sister passed on to me. Of course

can you imagine, you don't think that you are going to hear these

words after ten years of not seeing her. So it was very surreal for me.

I mean you can imagine all the emotions, is it real, can it be

true, all the things that we have gone through. You know, what we

have heard. People saying they know her where abouts. Digginging for

her, so as you can -- digging for her, as you can imagine it was

quite overwhelming. Your hopes had been face raised before? Absolutely,

she was my cousin, her mother and my mother are sisters. You know I

have seen what it did to my aunt. It just destroyed her. To think

that she was in our own home town and in Cleveland, that is just

something that I can't even grasp still to this day. Amanda

disappeared ten years ago or me, did you think she was still alive?

As the years went on it was ...it was a little difficult because you

know, you kind of start to lose hope. You hear all these stories

with these girls being taken and human trafficking and you know,

will you ever see her again, you know. You just run through your

mind that you know the things I still hear her voice and you know,

I remember how she you know brushed her hair and how she looked and you

know. It is just, no, it was very hard for me at the end. When we had

her ten-year vigil it was very hard. How does that feel to know she was

only a few miles from the places the searches must have been going

on? It is incredible. How do you think that would feel? You have

them digging for her, you know, just a block or two from where she

actually was in captivity. That is incredible. You need to get to know

your where abouts, because somebody can sit with you, as I'm here right

now and you don't know what I have going on inside my house. It does

seem incredible, as you say, that the guy who discovered her, or who

she made contact with talked about the neighbour, and sharing ribs and

barbecues without ever suspecting him, right? You don't know who your

neighbours are. You need to find out what is going on. There is

being nosey and there is being cautious. You just want to know

where you are at. Has it taught you anything more about the police

search, because we know that the police went to the house, they were

called there a couple of years ago, and they went away when nobody

answered the door? For myself I think that the police could have

done a little bit more when she first came up missing. She was

classified as a runaway, that is not in her character. I don't care

how old you are, if you are 25, if you are missing you are missing.

What do you want to come out of this? You and your family have been

through something that is almost inconceivable for most people?

want for human trafficking to stop. These are girls, they are not money.

You don't make money off of people. We are not slaves, no-one should

own us, we are free, that is why good gives us that. We are not

meant to be sold into slavery. Held against our will into captivity. We

just need to get more laws passed. Thank you very much. Matt Zone is a

Cleveland City Councillor who has known a family of the other rescued

women, Gina DeJesus, since she went missing in 2004. He spent time with

the family this evening. Thank you very much, tell us how the family

are? The family is in a little shock right now. I was not able to

talk to Gina's mother and father, Nancy and Felix, they are with Gina

right now. But I did speak with her aunt who saw Gina and was able to

be with her as well as some cousins. They are a little overwhelmed.

There is a whole range of emotions that are going on as you can just

imagine. Gina is out of hospital, is she physically well? She is out

of the hospital, physically she's well. But there is ten years that

have gone by and you know we just, there is concern from the family as

well as people in the community how Gina's going to do, not only in the

next 30-days, but how is she going to be a year from now, two years

from now, five years from now. know Gina's family, but you also

know the suspect's family as well, they are pretty known around the

neighbourhood, right? I do. The Castro family is a prominent family

in the Hispanic community. The City of Cleveland's about a population

of 400,000 and roughly 10% are Hispanic. The patriarch of the

family, Cese Castro is well known and respected businessman in our

community. His brother Holio owns a hardware store around the corner

from where they found the suspects. It is shocking to think that this

could happen. I know there is embarrassment right now for the

Castro family with the thought that the suspect is actually a relative.

The question is how did nobody know, I mean as you say, a well known

family and a street where it looked as if everyone talked to each other,

sat out on their porches, passed each other by, how do you think

this was missed? In this part of our city, I mean Seymour Avenue

where they found the girls, it is more of a transient street. There

is not a whole lot of owner- occupiers, mostly rentals. There is

foreclosed unit as well as several condemned and boarded up houses on

the street. I think what is happening over time is when you

have more stable streets people start to know who their neighbours

are and look out for them. That might be why that kind of flew

underneath the radar screen. Tina, as you may have heard, was quite

critical of the police search when she talked to me earlier, they said

they had treated her as a missing person who had just gone off rather

than someone who had disappeared. Do you think the police have

serious questions to ask themselves about how this investigation was

conducted? I think the community in general has serious questions to

answer. Not only do the police, but the greater community. As well as

the families of these individuals, and the family of the suspect. We

all have to be accountable at the end of the day. It is easy right

now to point fingers, but we have to let the investigation unfold,

see how this thing plays out. At the end of the day we will get the

facts and we will get to the bottom of this. Where does the police

investigation go, they were called to the house a couple of years ago,

but walked away when nobody answered the door, right? I will

tell you in defence of our police department they really have

exhausted all efforts to find these young women. Every time a lead came

in they followed up on it. I have discussed this with our safety

director as well as our police chief. Just recently as last year

the City of Cleveland spent to close to several hundred thousand

dollars based on a tip they received from somebody that the

girls might have been buried in a field just several blocks from

where they found them. And they spent all night, 48 continuous

hours combing that area. It was based on a tip. So I'm not ready to

say that the police didn't do all that they should. Sure, and just

take us through what their strategy is now, what are they currently

working at? Sure, we are working very closely with multiple law

enforcement agencies. The Federal Bureau of Investigation, the FBI,

is kind of handling the lead for the investigations right now. All

of the interviewing process is being done through the FBI. The US

marshall service is involved, as well as our police department, and

our county Sheriff's department, all working in Unison with one

another to try to -- unison with one another to try to build a

timeline from the time the ladies went missing until he had why.

Piecing together all the interviews and creating a timeline for how

things sequentialally have happened. Later this evening Russia and the

United States have pledged to try to push both sides of the Syrian

conflict to forge political transition. They want to build on

plan set out last year. Senator John Kerry says it shouldn't be a

piece of paper, but it comes as tension in the regions run high.

Two attacks by Israel on Syrian targets raise the prospect of its

deep involvement. Syria's President said his country could confront

Israeli aggression. What to make of it? Well this

process that has been announced tonight in Moscow, talks between

the Russian Foreign Minister and John Kerry the US Secretary of

State does appear to offer some thin sliver of hope. It could be

that it is due to the worsening of the situation that they have been

spurred into trying to do something. The White House has said, following

on from the announcement that its consideration of arming the Syrian

opposition is now being put on hold. Until they see whether this can get

somewhere. This was John Kerry earlier this evening. We have

agreed to use our good offices, both of us, to bring both sides to

the table working with our other core coalition partners and other

allies and interested party to bring both sides to the table in

partnership with the concern of foreign countries, that a committed

themselves to helping the Syrians to find a prompt and political

solution within the Geneva framework. John Kerry said he

doesn't want it to be a piece of paper, but can the two sides

realistically come around the table together at this point? This has

been the critical question when talks were held last year in Geneva.

It became pretty clear that the two sides of the Al-Assad Government

and the opposition just didn't have the will to do this. There were

preconditions talked about on both sides and they weren't prepared to

close the gap. The Russian Foreign Minister, I many you may say

putting a Russian spin on this evening, he claimed he had spoken

to the Syrian Government, they were prepared to come. They were

prepared to talk without conditions. And he implied that they were

willing to do it, but there was a question about whether the

opposition would. They have often said the ouster of the Al-Assad

Government is a precondition for talks. It is a difficult situation.

They are unlikely to bridge the gap, all the other indicators in the

region of increasing ethnic violence for example in one of the

Alawite areas close to the coast, in attacks over the weekend,

indicate a further rising of tension regionally. President Assad

himself has been on television this evening, responding to the Israeli

air strikes saying it is part of this broad conspiracy by regional

powers, the west and Israel, he said it was just another face of

the terrorism the country is up against today. Allah hu Akbar.

Allah hu Akbar. So now Israel is being drawn into Syria's strive in

a highly visible fashion. A series of air strikes starting on Friday

has brought the two countries to the brink of war and spread alarm

in the region. TRANSLATION: Israeli air strike on Damascus is

completely unacceptable, there is no excuse or pretext that can

justify this operation. These raids are nothing but opportunities,

trump cards present today Al-Assad on a golden plate. Israel gambled

that its bombing, which it still hasn't officially owned up to

wouldn't trigger an all-out war. But it took precautions against one

happening, calling up a reserve armoured division to reinforce the

border and stationing batteries of its Iron Dome missile defence

system near northern cities. The fear was that retaliation might

come in the form of hundreds rockets from Hezbollah, the

Lebanese militant Shi'ite movement, closely allied to Syria and Iran.

Israel's strategy is now focused on thwarting that alliance. In Israel

the set of priorities, Iran, Syria and what happened in Egypt in the

Sinai are the top three priorities right now in the region. The

combination of these weapons handing into the hands of Iranian

allies is up there with their priority, there is a real fear in

Israel that these weapons will be used. Either immediately or in the

very near future either from the Golan Heights or Lebanon. Or in

future conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah. They take it very

seriously. Israel's targets reportedly over a weapons convoy

with sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles in January. And again near

the Lebanese border four days ago, seemed to confirm an agenda of

trying to prevent transfers of advanced weapons to Hezbollah. The

recent strikes were apparently aimed at missiles called Fateh 110s,

being transfered from Iran to the Lebanese militant movement via

Syria. These would put much of northern Israel in range. The

Israelis have also struck the Jamraya research facility twice,

both in January and the last few days. It is claimed to be a

chemical weapons storage point. Syria has promised unspecified

retaliation if Israel attacks again. But Palestinian groups there say

they have been given the OK to attack Israel across the Golan

Heights frontier. Meanwhile Iran has been trying to beef up

Hezbollah's Arsenal as a means of deterring an Israeli attack on its

nuclear facilities. Putting Fateh missiles in southern Lebanon gives

Iran potentially a powerful retaliatory option against Israel.

The question now is whether Israel's action will cause Iran or

Syria, far from stopping, to accelerate their weapons deliveries

to Hezbollah, leading all sides into further escalation. If there

is a broader confrontation with Iran that country has responded to

the weekend's air strikes defiantly. TRANSLATION: Israel would not dare

to attack Iran, you can be sure of that. However, we are ready for any

course case scenarios, but at the same time we are sure that Israel

would not undertake such an operation. After these raids, the

stakes in Syria have been raised once again. But if Israel is

serious about stopping future transfer of weapons to Hezbollah,

they may have to strike again soon, with all the risks that entails.

Those fighting against President Assad's forces have now received

unwanted backing from Israel. The Syrian conflict has changed again

if for no other reason than the powerlessness of the military there

to protect their most sensitive installations from Israeli attack

has been exposed. I'm joined by an Iranian writer and journalist, and

Dore Gold, a former Israeli UN ambassador, who also advised

Benjamin Netanyahu on foreign policy. Thank you very much for

joining me. Dore Gold, do you think this conference we have heard about

late this evening will happen and will it achieve what they want it

to? From the Israeli perfective -- perspective it is essential that

the constant supply of weaponry to Hezbollah is stopped. Especially

the heavy weaponry, the rockets, like The Fat Duck 1-10, and the

counter aircraft weaponry that has been flowing in. People forget this

fundamental fact, but after the 2006 second Lebanon war, the United

Nations Security Council adopted a resolution 1701 that stated flatly

that all countries are prohibited from supplying weaponry to Lebanese

militias. So just even the supply of a simple sub-machine-gun would

be prohibited, but the supply of heavy dangerous weaponry that

changes the strategic balance, that is something Israel cannot tolerate

and will not allow its cities to be put at risk. It sounds from the way

you are talking as if it is too late for diplomacy, is that bluntly

how you feel? Well diplomacy started in 2006 with a clear UN

security resolution, supported by the United States, UK, Britain,

France, Russia, saying that there would be no supply of weaponry to

Lebanese militias like Hezbollah. That obviously has been violated

massively by Iran, with the assistance of Syria, and that has

to come to a halt. Otherwise what Israel will simply not tolerate is

a situation whereby let's say new supersonic anti-ship missiles are

given to Hezbollah which can be used to threaten the freedom of

navigation of Israeli shipping and even put our new gas fields at risk.

Interesting that when I raised this issue of the conference you know

you hear from Israel who are not even at the table in terms of the

Syrian talks, it is all about weaponry. Is it totally unrealistic

to think that anything will come out of talks now? Well from the

Iranian perspective and looking at the role Iran has played in it, the

advice Iran has been giving to Bashar al-Assad all along is

compromising projects an image of weak he is in. Iran has envoked the

experiences of dictators like Ben Ali in Tunisia and Mubarak in Egypt,

they compromised and invited their own demise. That advice they have

been giving all along is to stand firm. I think for leaders like in

Iran and Bashar al-Assad in Syria, victory looks very different than

what we may conceive of in the west. For them they have the long-term in

mind, to suffer great costs but to stay in power, despite all of that.

So Iran loves showing its people Syria in chaos then? It is very

expedient for Iran. Because it holds up a model that a model of

what will happen if you seek change. A bloody conflict in which 70,000

people have already died. This invites caution inevitably amongst

the Irani people who have had a war and revolution in the recent

memories of most families. That is the convenient by-product of this

for the Iranian regime. Of the calculation that Assad would not

respond to the Israeli strikes then? I think President Assad

understands that Israel's complaint and constant protest about Syrian

behaviour relates to the supply of weaponry to Hezbollah. Israel is

not involving itself in the questions of the internal questions

of the Syrian Civil War. You heard the response as was portrayed as

the Iranian one, that the dictator has been seen to be standing strong.

Assad himself this evening said we have the capability of fighting

back? Well, but also Syria and the Arab states in general always say

they respect the terms of international legitimacy. Here you

have UN Security Council resolutions that have said in the

clearest of language that Lebanese militias cannot be rearmed, let

alone rearmed by these extremely destablising weapons, like the

heavy rockets that can hit and do enormous damage to Israeli cities.

We are not talking about the cartouches that have been used by

ham nas in the Gaza strip, we are talk -- Hamas in the Gaza strip, we

are talking about rockets 30-times more powerful. The motivation could

be to get these long range missiles into Hezbollah's hands very close

to the board we are Israel. Does that sound likely? I think it is

plausible at contingency planning Iran might try to move that kind of

weaponry to southern Lebanon. attack or defend? To have in place

as a deterrent against any potential Israeli strike on Iran's

facilities. Despite all the talk about weaponry, I think the reality

is all sides of this conflict have a lot to gain by things not

escalating further. Could Syria be the proxy war ground, if you like,

for conflict between Israel and Iran? I think that's exactly what's

happening. We are seeing the Afghanisation of Syria, in which it

has become a theatre for proxy strategic warfare between Iran and

Israel, on the one hand, Russia is involved. Saudi Arabia and Qatar

are arming Sunni militants affiliated with Al-Qaeda. Iran is

backing Hezbollah and the Alawites, we are seeing that kind of staging

ground. Thank you very much indeed. Nigel Lawson said it, many in his

party already think it, the UK would be better off outside the EU

Tomorrow is David Cameron's first chance to show if and how Ukip's

success in the local elections last week will affect the tone of his

policy making going forward. Has the Queen's Speech been hastily

rewritten this bank holiday weekend, or is the coalition confident

enough to hang on to what it has trailed before. Take us through,

first of all, Lord Lawson's comments, why are they so

potentially damaging? What Lord Lawson has done is taken David

Cameron's sensitively scheduled Europe strategy, because it had a

series, a sequence of events, and has fast-forwarded it to the most

difficult and troublesome bit. David Cameron said he wanted to

renegotiate and he will come back and be triumphant, and say these

are the bits I have renegotiated for you, now you can have a vote.

What Lord Lawson has said is that most difficult bit will be

meaningless. Here he can talking to my colleague Nick Robinson earlier.

Also they are afraid too, and I have a lot of friend in the

eurocracy, they all have this view too. They don't believe there is

anything, because they are frightened if they give anything to

us other countries will say they want this and that and the whole

thing will begin to unravel. The renegotiation is just a figleaf,

I'm afraid. The choice now whether David Cameron responds to that sort

of language and indeed the results for Ukip last year? I mean figleaf

is pretty painful, and "inconsequential", painful words

when it took so long for the Prime Minister to figure out exactly what

he wanted to say. The problem for Conservatives, looking at Lord

Lawson, he's incredibly respected, in and out of Ten Downing Street,

this isn't a person from eras past. The problem is they have to take

him seriously, but also he's speaking to the group out there

that thinks because the Prime Minister won't say what he wants to

renegotiate. He won't say that because he doesn't want that

shopping list for you and I to say you didn't get X therefore you have

failed. He won't do that. He is in a weaker position. But he has to

set out that kind of thing, they think, ahead of the next election,

otherwise the fear is that we end up with the same sort of stories,

Lord Lawson today and other people in the future, who pop out of the

wood work, say these things and the agenda is dominated by it. The

problem with the Thursday by- election, but also the elections,

is this sense of trust. People voted Ukip because of Europe,

immigration and a lot of things, but also possibly because at the

heart of it they felt that a lot of politicians don't actually honour

their words. That is what a lot of people I have spoken to today said.

The question of the referendum feeds into that. That if you

haven't done something that you said you would do ages ago and you

have this policy that is for tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow

then you are on weak ground. With me is Conservative MP Margot

James, and her colleague, Douglas Carswell, who has called for a Tory

counter-insurgency against Ukip. Margot James, Lord Lawson has

totally undermined the Prime Minister's Europe strategy with

that? Certainly it was a bit of a bombshell, I would agree. But I

read the article, and I found it wanting in several major respects.

I thought the way he dismissed the Prime Minister's strategy of

negotiating reformed Europe was really flawed. I mean he likened it

to 1975 and Harold Wilson's renegotiation. It was more than

that, he said he has spoken to people within the eurozone who have

made it utterly clear that they won't shift any ground. That is a

big full stop isn't it? That's possibly a negotiating strategy. I

don't suppose he has spoken to everyone who is going to be

involved in making these decisions. I think he's overlooking the fact

that we are already making progress. This isn't going to be one set of

negotiations on a specific date at some point in the future. It is on

going business, and we are making progress. Douglas Carswell, there

will be some saying it is your fault, those on the right who

pushed him to promise this referendum which now has not gone

far enough? I think Nigel Lawson's intervention sin credibly

significant, he understands economics, one of the most

successful Chancellors we have produced, and someone who advocated

to joining the ERM, the precursor to the euro now saying we should

get out. I think this strengthening the argument for what David Cameron

announced in January, which is to make sure that we have an in-out

referendum. Of course if Lord Lawson hadn't said it now, three

years too early? People say that the problem is that he's undermined

the idea that we can renegotiate. The beauty of an in-out referendum

is that Brussels is not just going to have to negotiate with the

Whitehall mandarins or David Cameron, they are negotiating with

the whole British people. And any deal that comes back is going to

have to persuade the constituents that elected me, that it is

worthwhile remaining insight. want that now, of course?

Personally speaking I would love us to bring forward the legislation

now for an in-out referendum. Before 2015? Absolutely. But part

of me actually thinks, no, we need a couple of years actually to make

the case for withdrawal. Is there any chance that could happen now?

think it is very unlikely. It would be unlikely any way to get a bill

through parliament. The numbers are stacked again that. I think that

the Prime Minister has committed to the very earliest point that he can

commit to knowing that parliamentary arithmetic. Which is

if a Conservative Government is elected we will have an in-out

referendum. He has become the Prime Minister who pushes things with a

vague promise of something happening finally and the

electorate is no longer trusting that? I don't think it was a vague

promise, I think it was a cast iron commitment to a referendum if the

Conservatives get elected at the 2015 election. Two years and too

many ifs, and they remember Lisbon? There won't be any point in

producing a referendum bill only set to failure. I wouldn't be

totally surprised that in the Queen's Speech we see proposals for

an in-out bill. What do you mean, do you know this is coming up?

at all, but if I was in Number Ten and I wanted to address the issue

of plausibilty I would be prepared to bring it through. Now if MPs

then voted to prevent that bill going through, we could see the

names of those MPs and the voters could make up their minds? What you

are saying is Ukip calls the tune now? We are in a democracy and the

voters want change. And the strategy then is for David Cameron

to look at Ukip's success and say we need to do what they are telling

us to do? Generally speaking in a democracy, when mainstream parties

are losing touch with the voters, the idea is you should recognise it

is not the fault of the voter, perhaps it is something that the

two-and-a-half party system is failing to ifrdl. Our fundamental

problem is...Is That right, you must start listeninging and follow

the Ukip lead? We never stopped listening. To Ukip, what they are

saying on Bulgaria and Romania at the end of the year? I don't think

it is Ukip we are listening to, it is the license rate, the people in

our constituencies, the people who contact us week in week out. Those

are the people we are listening to. It is clearly not otherwise they

wouldn't have left the Tories? commitment that the Prime Minister

made to an in-out referendum was made long before these local

election results. It was it was made more in response to the

Conservative Party and the public than it was in response it a

political party There was an important Maiduguri, as someone who

wants the UK out of Europe and wants an in-out referendum, I don't

think the key problem is policy s even if we delivered the policy

want would solve the problem, I don't think so. The reason so many

people vote Ukip is they don't like the two-and-a-half party system,

there is a lack of authenticity, there is a feeling that all

politicians are in it together. That we are perhaps a little bit

smug, out-of-touch. Think we know that Ukip are the insurgents, we

need a counter insurgency strategy. Does that mean risking losing the

centre ground? What it means first and foremost is we stop doing

politics as a Westminster party with a few local franchises. We

actually open up the party strategy so people own it a grassroots

strategy again. The Queen's Speech will also pave

the way for part two of HS2, releasing funding for the early

stages of the design of the high- speed rail link. Much has been made

of its potential for allowing economic developments to reach

parts of the country it doesn't normally reach. How much truth is

there to. That we have been off to find out.

There are many arguments made for high-speed rail, but the one the

politicians routinely reach for is this one? We do need to rebalance

the economy. It has been too dominated by the south and by

certain industries and I think high-speed rail will really help to

create a better balanced economy. It is their go-to argument whenever

the �34 billion price tag for HS2 is questioned. I think it will help

heal the north-south divide, which for so long as blighted the British

economy. You can see why the politics of high-speed rail is

attractive to the Government. And the economic case also seems to

have a certain plausibilty about it. If you half the journey times to

northern cities, well companies will be queuing up to relocate

their business away from the south. But is there any actual evidence

that this could or will happen? Is there any actual evidence that if

there is an economic dividend to be had from high-speed rail, it will

go to the north and not to the south. If we look at the evidence

from economic analysis and expowerence elsewhere around the

world, it is difficult to prove a link between building high-speed

rail lines and closing regional inequalities or disparities. Very

difficult indeed. In terms of there is evidence it seems to suggest

that capital cities gain the most from the building of these new

high-speed rail lines. There is no point me hanging around here

waiting for the first high-speed train to Manchester or Leeds. They

won't be departing until 20.33 at the very earliest. However high-

speed rail is not a new idea. There are plenty of cities in the world

that already have it, where the economic impacts are well

documented. This can probably claim to be the world's first high-speed

railway, the propeller-driven Zeppelin train that hit 145 miles

an hour in Germany. Perhaps we need a more modern example? Here in

Spain they have the future for 20 years lr. Back in 1992 the

Government built a high-speed rail line between Madrid and Seville,

the objective was clear, they wanted to spread the wealth, jobs

and opportunity away from the rich capital in the north to the

impoverished south. Reverse the geography and you have a very

familiar argument. What I want to find out is after 20 years of

having high-speed rail has any of this actually worked? I certainly

didn't meet anyone in Spain who wanted to go back to the days

before high-speed rail. Least of all the President of the Company

that runs the trains. Most of the people were quite critical with

first doping the line between Madrid and Seville rather than

between Madrid and Barcelona or other more popular places. But it

was really successful. Most of the people will come again by train

transportation. There has been a lot of development in Seville and

also in the surroundings of Madrid. So the balance of these first high-

speed trains in 1992 was really successful. The Spanish experience

is that the territory is very suitable for high-speed train. I

think that this is a case for the United Kingdom too.

The journey to Seville now takes two at a quarter hours, as opposed

to seven hours by train and ten by car before advent of high-speed

rail. That is undoubtedly a huge benefit to the people who already

had to make the trip. But, say economist, the Andalucia region

itself hasn't benefited nearly as much as you might expect.

problem with Seville and the south of Spain is that there is a lack of

other conditions like for example skills in people, attitudes,

diversification of the economy. So the high-speed train contributes

but a little. Nowadays to promote a region you need innovation, you

need education, you need good attitudes from people. Those things

in Seville and the south of Spain they are not promoted or developed.

Have many companies relocated their operation from Madrid to Seville?

don't think so. No. In Seville I have come to see a company that has

relocated and loves high-speed rail. Altmann sources and tests the

components that go into -- this company sources and tests the

component that is go into sat right. They relocated in 1992 from Madrid

to Seville. It has been a tremendous achievement in the sense

of time. It takes between two and a quarter and two-and-a-half hours to

get there are centre to centre. right next door to this high-tech

lab there is another story to tell. This was the site of the 1992

Seville expo. The high-speed rail line was part of the futuristic

package. When the expo closed the local Government offered very

generous incentives to companies like this to move in. It was this

and the other supsidies that tempted them to relocate, not just

the line. We moved mainly because for three reasons, the first one of

the support of the local Government and the City Council. They were

providing at that time to companies move. The second one of the

existence of a very good technical university in Seville. It is a good

source for a highly qualified and motivated professionals. Then the

last one that would have been excluded was the existence of good

connections with Madrid. Would you have moved without the availability

of this building at a very good rate? Possibly not. This is not

that far off what they had in Spain before high-speed rail. So the

savings in journey times were huge, far higher than promised for the UK,

which is already pretty well connected. That's why a Labour

Government review concluded that such a scheme wasn't worth the cost.

And if there are any benefits from reduced journey times for the UK,

economyists say they are likely to go to firms in London.

More productive firms in cities like London will be able to serve

distant markets in northern cities, much more efficiently from the

existing base rather than from bases located in the northern

cities. So if the time to market is reduced between London and the

northern cities, that is going to mainly benefit firms already based

in London. That seems to be what happens in most of the case around

the world where the railway lines are introduced. If you had a London

and Manchester office, and high- speed rail comes along, you might

be tempted to close the office because you can serve the

Manchester market from London? run the office down over time.

"their lawns our jobs" that was the slogan of those opposing the scheme,

nim bees standing in the way of regeneration in the north.

finding any clear evidence that is what would happen has been

difficult. Of course it would be amazing if building something like

this, spending �34 billion on a new rail line didn't some -- create

some jobs. But could the money be The * telegraph suggests that Sir

Alex Fergsuoned my be about to to call time on his career at

Manchester United. There will be more on that tomorrow. We learned

today that the animator Ray Harrison has died aged 92. We leave

Hello, after the UK's warmest day of the year so far, the weather is

now in a mood to change. And Wednesday brings a band of rain

spreading north, not going to northern Scotland until the evening

and behind it will brighten up in Northern Ireland and England and

Wales as we go through the afternoon. Bright spells but a much

fresher feel in Northern Ireland with the stronger breeze. Some rain

through the central belt at 4.00. The far north of Scotland with

warmth but with a strengthening wind, the rain getting in during

the evening. Across northern England behind the rain it will

brighten up, we also see heavy showers breaking out, particularly

through central and eastern parts of England through the mid-to-laid

afternoon maybe with a rumble of thunder. Bright spells to breezy

conditions, still warm high teens but not the 20s we saw today. The

fresher feel into south England and Wales. Plenty of dry weather to end

the day, maybe the odd passing shower in the brisk south-westerly

wind. It stays fairly unsettled as we go through the re- of the week.

For Wednesday most of us will see a -- the rest of the week, most of us

will see rain coming through during Thursday and the difference on

Thursday will be an even stronger wind. It looks as if southern