14/06/2013 Newsnight

Tonight America stakes a big leap into the Syrian war. But is it too

late to influence what is a regional and sectarian conflict,

touching all across the Middle East. And with almost 100,000 believed

dead is offering guns to the rebels really part of the solution.

With arms pouring in from Russia, Iran and the gulf states, it won't

win the war, but it does give America a bigger stake. The Assad

regime steps up the propaganda war, showing off the foreign fighters

and jihadis they say are part of the rebellion. Europe is having a

war on their borders with the same kind of Madrassahs that the Salafis

and others have on your border. best days of our life, what do you

make of the school assemblies we all loved to hate.

Good evening, when the poet William Butler Yeats wrote the best like

all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity, it

was his native Ireland that Yeats had in mind. Today's political and

sectarian struggle in Syria might just as well fit the bill. The

Obama administration remains divided on how far to go to aid

Syrian rebels. Guns will be sent but not of the type or number the

rebels want. Meanwhile Hezbollah, Iran and others and the jihadis

fighting with the rebels are indeed full of passionate intensity. With

Obama's red line on the use of chemical weapons now apparently

crossed and the shift towards arming the rebel now being taken,

supported by Britain and France, what on earth are we getting into

here. We begin tonight with our diplomatic editor. Why are the

Americans doing it now? I could almost say do you want the spin

doctor's answer, the diplomat's answer or the hard-nosed realist

answer. The spin doctor's answer is the President was never going to

undertake such a thing lightly. During the past few weeks the White

House and other agencies have been reviewing the evidence of chemical

weapons use and they have come to this view as a result of which they

believe policy response is essential. The diplomat's response

is coming as he is to the G8 summit in Northern Ireland on Monday, he

wants to try to kick this diplomacy into a different gear, to energise

it. People have been meandering about this issue of will there or

will there not be this Geneva 2 peace conference, trying to bring

people to the table. He wants to give the Americans more of a lever,

if you like in that discussion. And energise that discussion. The hard-

nosed realist, and I must say some of the people I have been talking

to this week inside the system seemed to tend to this view, is

that America has seen things developing in a most unwelcome way

in the region in the past week or two. Yes there have been reports of

use of chemicals in warfare, also the victory of the Assad forces

backed by the Hezbollah forces in the town of Qusair, lead them to

believe that Iran and Hezbollah could make big gains and want to

bring this to conclusion on terms that America cannot sit idlely by

when there is the potential for such a big win. That is what lies

behind today's announcement. As an intensifying conflict that

has already claimed 93,000 lives. Now, while saying it is still

saying it is working for a peace conference, America will send guns

to the opposition. What we have been able to do is develop

relationships, find individuals, like the General of the S NC, that

we can target the assistance towards, it allows you to get

assistance into the hands of those who need it, but also protections

against those who you don't want to receive the material. The White

House says it is dispatching weapons because President Assad's

regime has used chemical weapons, including sarin nerve gas. The UK

and France agree, but Russia, which has been arming the Syrian

Government for decades finds the evidence flimsy. TRANSLATION:

reference is made by our partners on the alleged chemical weapon

usage by Syrian forces were not supported by the necessary

convincing facts. But what difference will this make? The

Syrian opposition has called the US move largely meaningless. Little

wonder. In places they already have anti-aircraft missiles like this.

That are able to take on regime air power. More widespread still are

modern anti-tank missiles, all believed part of a multibillion

dollar Saudi and Qatary programme of supply. Even the stock seized

from Syrian army bases, like this ammunition storehouse, dwarf what

the Americans may be planning to send. But it does mark a more

interventionist position. Some of the other options being studied at

the Pentagon include attacks on key regime bases. But in order to avoid

destroying the defence systems it could be done with warships in the

Mediterranean or using other countries' airspace. Another

concept put forward by the French is for a no-fly zone. Once again it

would be a big task to do it across the whole of Syria, but if a safe

haven from declared in the rebel held northern areas, a no-fly zone

above them could be enforced, with fewer air strikes, along with

fighter patrols and patriot anti- aircraft missiles already deployed

in Turkey. None of these options particularly appeals to the White

House. But major regime advances perhaps towards Aleppo, or large

scale chemical weapons use might trigger them. Can the Americans

exert strong influence short of such action? Probably not. Regional

actors and sectarian acts are increasingly powerful. These

fighters from the Lebanese Hezbollah movement caused outrage

among many Sunnis by an act apparently of symbolic triumphism.

They unfold on the minuter receipt of a Sunni mosque a banner harking

back to the 1400-year-old schism between the sects. In Cairo

yesterday an assembly of Sunni religious scholars urged men across

the Arab world to go to Syria to fight against a Government they

regard as infidel. To sustain this religious battle, the leader of

Hezbollah insisted the armed units will continue their fight in Syria.

TRANSLATION: We are more determined to confront this plot and develop

this confrontation. We will be where we need to be and what we

started we will take the responsibility of continuing it. We

do not need to explain more. Assad regime's recent success on

the battlefield with Hezbollah and Iranian help has given the US a

power political reason to get more involved. Whatever the evidence on

chemical weapons use. Since 2004 Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other

countries have considered themselves in a proxy battle with

Iran for influence in the Middle East. So, I really do believe that

the United States and other interested powers should weigh in

on the side of people who don't want to see a Hezbollah, Iran

Nexsus in the Middle East. It is all centered on Syria right now.

is these actors, Hezbollah, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Qatar leading

among them that are now feeding advanced weapons, cash and people

into the Syrian caldron on a grand scale. It is questionable how far

the new American supplies might alter this dynamic.

Until earlier this year my guest was Barack Obama's White House

Coordinator for Arms Control and weapons of mass destruction

terrorism. And we have a Syrian writer and broadcaster. Given our

experiences in Iraq, people will want to know just how compelling

this evidence on chemical weapons being used by the regime really is.

What is your assessment of that? Well, the American, British and

French Intelligence Services have all reached the same conclusion. I

think the most compelling evidence is based on physiological samples

from rebel soldiers who have been exposed to sarin. This is blood and

urine and hair samples and so forth. That is fairly conclusive. What is

less conclusive, because the information haven't been made

public is what information London, Washington and Paris has,

indicating that chemical weapons were used under orders from the

Syrian Government. They say that such information exists but for

obvious reasons they haven't made it public. President Obama said

very famously that would be a red line, and we also hear that perhaps

150 people have died as a result of the use of chemical weapons. But

you know with 93,000 dead, you might think that should have been a

red line and perhaps what is happening as senator McCain is

suggesting is too little too late? I think it is too early to tell if

it is too little too late. Clearly an infusion of weapons earlier in

the conflict would have had more of an impact. But as it was said at

the top of the show as the Syrian Government has demonstrated that it

is capable of launching effective military operations and as the

opposition seems to be on the back foot, I'm sure there was some

pressure on Washington to try to demonstrate that it is willing to,

or trying to influence the outcome. On what has unfortunately become a

proxy war with Russia, Iran and Hezbollah supporting on one side,

and Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the US and Europe on the other side

calling for Assad to leave. terms of the difficulty for the

administration or anyone getting a grip on this. How much bearing did

the thought that it could be Afghanistan again, we could give

weapons to one side and they will end up using them against us or our

allies. The questions of the jihadis getting their hands on the

weapons, is that the reason they are not getting anti-aircraft

weapons for example? Yes, I think that is the prime row reason. I

think the administration is starting cautiously by providing

small arms and anti-tank weapons. Which even if they do end up in the

hands of the jihadis won't really pose much of a threat. And if we,

if this trial work well. If people feel confident that the weapons are

in the hands of forces that we have confidence in and they are being

used properly then I think the pressure on, not only the US, but

also the British and the French, to follow up with more sophisticated

weapons that the rebels clearly need in order to fight the Syrian

air force is going to become much greater. I see this as a cautious

first step, but I don't think it will be the last step.

I just wondered how you see this. Do you see it as in any sense a

game-changer, politically it might be, but in terms of weapons perhaps

not? Syrians have become so cynical from what they have heard in the

past two years and three months. I have called them the loneliest

people in the world, because this revolution, which started out as we

all know peacefully. I was met with such harsh violence and besiegement

and military aircraft attacks from cities that left half of Syria in

rubble and five million people displaced, either externally or

internally in great, great difficulty, catastrophic difficulty.

Syria feels that these promises that keep being made are never

really fulfilled. We have heard these noises before from the White

House about red lines. And even now your guest in the United States is

saying that they will start cautiously if they are going to arm

and they won't give anything like what is needed. Do you think that

could be too late in the end, that the Assad regime will hold on?

problem is that intervention has happened in Syria, and it has

happened by Russia. We are at the mercy of Russian air force bombing

us, we are also at the mercy of constant arming and financing by

Iran, which calls Syria to, -- causes Syrians great shock and

outrage and calls us a province of Iran. And Hezbollah's entry into

Qusair and the way they have been used as snipers and as torturers is

really very serious. But because of that, you talked about the great

hopes that you had at the start, but where we are now obviously

nobody wants to be in this has become a sectarian war including

outside players, not just the ones you mentioned, but the Saudis,

Qatar, we heard the Egyptian clerics talking about Sunni

fighters should go. It has become the thing most people dreaded,

which is the sectarian war. I still don't see it as a sectarian war. I

see the major actors as sectarians, and one of the great myths that the

world has held about Assad is that he was some how secular because he

wore a tie and had lived in London and had an English wife. The point

is that as a Syrian who has lived throughout Syria's modern history,

including the pre Ba'ath period. I know there was no sectarian before

Iran became a strategic partner of the Assad regime, both father and

son. That has led to the fact we have heard of Hezbollah, and proxy

of Iran saying that he will continue to fight a sectarian

battle. Let me bring in you on that, that must give the White House

great pause for thought. That it is, there are clearly these outside

actors, but if it becomes Sunni versus Shia, then there is perhaps

no solution, not only there, but the spillover for Jordan and for

Lebanon in particularly, it could be horrendous. I think part of the

motivation for being more directly engaged is to try to influence as

much as one can those forces in the opposition that the US thinks are

not secular, that are not extremist, that would be more tolerant of what

in Syria is a real mixture of different groups. And that's part

of the motivation. You are never gob to go able to completely

control the outcomes in these kinds of situations. If the US did

nothing that would create a feel for the Islamist forces. You know

the players in Washington extremely well, do you think that the

administration is really quite divided about this, because it is

so difficult, between those who would like to do much more and

those who would actually like to not have another messy foreign war?

I think President Obama has been absolutely determined to avoid not

getting drawn into another conflict. That explains why the US has been

so reluctant to take even the first step. Now a combination of events

have put him in a position where he feels that he has to at least do

this first step. As I said earlier the risk of course is once you take

the first step is becomes even more difficult to disengage. And the war

promises to go on for a long time. My guess is that not only for the

US but for US allies, Britain and France, this is going to be the

beginning of what will end up being a much greater involvement. Not

necessarily direct military action, even use of air force, but much

greater involvement in terms of arming and training the opposition.

Briefly, I know you want to come in there? All I want to say is this,

that Obama for obvious reasons wanted to be isolationist on the

Middle East, coming after Bush, but he was so isolationist when it came

to Syria that he allowed a conflict that could have been stopped from

the very beginning to escalate to such an extent that now, without

prop armying and without proper anti-aircraft missiles, which no-

one has been promised, nothing will happen.

Now, one of the arguments the Assad regime has been using to prevent

foreign aid to the rebels is simple, fear, if you give guns they may be

used against you one day, just as they were in Afghanistan. To

bolster the argument, the Government in Damascus has been

making a great deal of propaganda over the called foreign fighters

and jihadis they captured during the fighting. Traditional song at

the grand mosque in Damascus. And the magnificent place of prayer.

Today it is the setting for a ceremony. Muslim and Christian

leaders sit together here. With Syrian mothers who have lost their

sons in war. And still grieve. But this isn't a private moment, the

cameras have also been invited. And other mothers from Tunisia as well

as fathers. Their sons are also involved in Syria's war. But they

have been fighting for the other side. Many have been captured and

put in prison. Parents have come to Syria to find their sons. And to

say a very public story. TRANSLATION: Please forgive me, I

didn't know my son was coming here, our sons were brainwashed. Mothers

are brought together from countries on opposing sides, it is carefully

choreographed for the cameras. But there is no denying the grief is

genuine. TRANSLATION: They arrested our sons at the border. They didn't

do anything. I know my son, he wouldn't kill anyone. Her son Sami

is one of thousands of foreign fighters who have joined battle

with Syria's rebels in their fight against President Assad's forces.

Hundreds have come here from Tunisia. The mother's cause was

taken up by civil society activists at home. In this five-star hotel in

Damascus they argue over details of a joint declaration. Tunisian

lawyers want due process for the prisoners. But the Syrians in this

room see a much bigger opportunity. They want to get all foreign

fighters off the battlefield. This man is a Syrian businessman with

close ties to President Assad's family and has made this his

mission. His burning ambition is to bring delegations from around the

world to his door. His secret weapon, he knows this is also

Europe's growing worry. Europe today is having a new Pakistan on

your border, with the same type of Madrassahs that are being made by

the Salafi and Wahab by, it is on your border and a real crisis and

problem, it is the transit in Turkey and the incubation of the

Muslim Brotherhoods in Turkey for all those fighters in Europe and

they will be coming back to Europe. This war is causing anxiety in

Europe. This week a group of European Parliament members arrived

in Damascus. Only hours after a double suicide bombing in the heart

of the capital. Politicians mainly from far right parties came to

inspect the damage. They were invited here by the Syrian

Government. For Europeans, like this Belgian senator, foreign

fighters at the top of their agenda too. These are the potential

terrorists of the future. If they come back to our country they will

be the qaed militants and they will fight their -- Al-Qaeda militant,

and they will fight their jihad on our European soil. It is a very,

very big threat for all European countries, not only for Belgium.

What chance of resolving this as we speak, it looks like there will be

more arms coming into Syria, more fighter, not less? It was a very

stupid decision to lift the ban on weapon deliveries to Syria. The

weapons we will deliver to Syria to the called Free Syrian Army, but

also to Al-Qaeda and so on, will be used within a few months, within a

few years, on European soil. So I think it was a very niave and

stupid decision. Syria's war is regarded as a Jihad or holy war by

Islamist groups worldwide. It is not just places long regarded as

breeding grounds for militancy. Even Swedish is being spoken on

Syria's battlefield. "pack your bags and come to Syria", this

fighter says. Many Europeans are, including some British nationals.

Growing concern over the potential security threat posed by large

numbers of European jihadis was raised in meetings last week among

European home affairs ministers. There may be common interests, but

it is quite another matter to make common cause. This businessman has

taken his message to Syria's state TV. So far his plan has brought

mothers here to Damascus, civil No Such Thing As Society activists,

even from a country with -- civil society activists, even from a

country with no diplomatic interests here. There is a growing

war of words. So will this kind of initiative ever work? Will the

other side even listen? All sides talk about the need to end a bloody

war, now in its third year. But on one side the west is now focusing

on arming what it calls a "moderate" opposition. On the other,

fighters from Lebanon, Iran and Iraq are blacking Damascus. --

backing Damascus. The west is still dealing with the reprecussions of

arming Islamist fighters in Afghanistan a decade ago. This time

it has been drawn into a vor text far harder to control.

We all suffer them or in my case try to skip them where possible.

School assembly is one of the strange rituals of British life.

When a columnist asked on social media of people's memories from

school assemblies, he was overwhelmed with replies. What was

the magic something that made it so Remember school assembly? I think

this headmaster has been hitting the staff room coffee. Funny that

you should all be so tired. When you wake up you will remember that

you saw a film about ants. Not even Ofsted expects teachers to be this

mesmerising. But what do you do if you don't have this kind of sway

How did all this get going? There has been a Twitter storm, or

at least gust, ever since journalist Rhodri Marsden

reminisceed on-line about how his school day once began. I was

listening to Thought for the Day on Radio 4, I had a memory of a school

assembly I was in, where the headteacher recited a story he had

clearly heard on Thought for the Day an hour early. It was a serious

observation but I made it on Twitter. I suddenly was replied to

with all the fantastic stories of Getting the kids' attention just

isn't a problem when movie star Will Smith is in the house, or hall.

Earlier this year he dropped in on this school in south London. What

I'm saying to you is this, the exams you are about to take are

probably the most important exams you will ever take. But what is

assembly like when he isn't around. Now, go quietly to your lessons.

Steven Smith, where are you? See me later! I do a few things, like I

have done an assembly around a mobile phone. I always, once a year,

recite Phenomenal Woman, by Maya Angelou that the pupils enjoy. I

spend a lot of time thinking about it and preparing for it. I try to

make it relevant. If something happened over the weekend in this

community or in the world I would talk about it in assembly. Just

between us is it a bit boring, is it interesting, what is it like?

think it is really interesting because basically we are all

together as a community. And it just really uplifts your morning,

if you have a bad morning you can come in, the assembly will make you

happy and not give up because you have had a bad morning. You can

continue to go on and not struggle. Is that true, you get a lift?

is a sense of community, everyone is together in the hall. We are all

One time I actually got up and sang during assembly individually.

you invited to? Not entirely. So I got in trouble there too. But I was,

for a while, I was quite whole hearted in assembly. Of course

obviously it was a good opportunity to flick bits of paper, preferably

when the teachers weren't looking. Or maybe slap the boy next to you

with a ruler. You know, there were infinite possibilities. The

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 75 seconds

Those were the days! Any way, let's That's all for this week, Jeremy is

here on Monday. We leave you with our very own sue Lloyd Roberts, who

we learn this evening has been awarded an MBE for services to

journalism. Here she is sneaking into Homs in Syria, undercover,

right at the start of the conflict in 2008. The only journalist here

to view the protest firsthand I noted another significant

difference. Back in March, when they began, the protestors called

for reform, then they called for the fall of the regime. Today as

the name of each atrocity and massacre carried out by Assad's

army and thugs is called out. The crowd respond by calling for the

There is uncertainty about the weekend weather. Especially when it

comes to Sunday. It is breezy and windy across southern I can't

remembers, there will be plenty of showers around. Around this area of

low pressure as it tracks eastwards. The problem for Sunday is this area

of low pressure and how far north it will take its rain. Now the

detail for Saturday. From the word go, sunshine and showers, along the

spread of rain in Scotland. Further showers moving across England and

Wales in the afternoon. These could be in the form of-y Joan pour,

merging to give longer spells of rain here too. It is windier the

further south you come. Southern coastal counties could see fewer

showers compared with elsewhere. It means more in the way of sunny

spells. Windy, yes, in the south west, in fact gales possible around

the exposed coasts in south-west England and Wales. Some sunshine

inbetween the showers. A scattering of showers around in Northern

Ireland too. They may merge to give longer spells of rain and 13

degrees in Belfast at this stage of the afternoon. A wet afternoon

through western parts of Scotland, especially to the north of Glasgow.

A few showers around elsewhere. We will keep a few showers going into