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watches, Egypt trembles, men, women and children are dying in Syria, is | :00:19. | :00:23. | |
it time to arm the rebels fighting the Assad dictatorship, in a | :00:23. | :00:28. | |
special programme tonight, we will hear why common humanity demands we | :00:28. | :00:33. | |
act and common sense may demand we don't. Two politicians, one for | :00:33. | :00:37. | |
intervention and one who thinks it would be a disaster make their case. | :00:37. | :00:41. | |
They face questions on what's at stake. Among our guests here in the | :00:41. | :00:45. | |
studio, all of whom ought to know what they are talking about, people | :00:45. | :00:48. | |
with families living in the Syrian cauldron, a commander of | :00:49. | :00:53. | |
intervention forces in the Balkans, a former American Assistant | :00:53. | :00:56. | |
Secretary of State, a Times journalist who has spent months at | :00:56. | :01:01. | |
the war, and the UNICEF ambassador back today from Syrian refugee | :01:01. | :01:11. | |
:01:11. | :01:18. | ||
camps. In Cairo today the military were quickly building new civilian | :01:18. | :01:21. | |
ministers in the Government they are building hoping people will | :01:21. | :01:25. | |
bear with them and avoiding a civil war, we shall see if it works. In | :01:25. | :01:32. | |
Syria one rages, it is currently focused on Syria's third-biggest | :01:32. | :01:38. | |
city, Homs, bombed by Assad forces for 11 days and where humanitarian | :01:38. | :01:43. | |
organisations say people are dying for lack of medical care. The | :01:43. | :01:46. | |
Russians, the regime's most powerful supporters said their | :01:46. | :01:51. | |
analysis confirmed the use of chemical weapons in the war, but | :01:51. | :01:56. | |
unlike western powers who blame President Assad's forces they claim | :01:56. | :01:59. | |
it is most likely the rebels who were responsible. | :01:59. | :02:03. | |
Our correspondent is in Beirut for us. What is happening in Syria | :02:03. | :02:09. | |
right now? First of all I should say Beirut has seen something it | :02:09. | :02:15. | |
hasn't for a long time, it was a car bomb in Shi'ite Hezbollah | :02:15. | :02:18. | |
southern Beirut. Everybody assumes that is payback for Hezbollah | :02:18. | :02:24. | |
sending fighters to aid the Syrian regime. Most notably in Qasar, they | :02:24. | :02:29. | |
are noted to be helping the Syrian regime capture Homs. We spoke to | :02:29. | :02:33. | |
people in areas held by the rebels for the past two years, almost | :02:33. | :02:38. | |
deserted now, a few fighters remaining behind to make a last- | :02:38. | :02:42. | |
ditch stand, some strapping on suicide vests, the fall of Homs | :02:42. | :02:46. | |
seems imminent, that would be a bad blow indeed for the rebels. | :02:46. | :02:49. | |
have been in and out of Syria for the last couple of years, what is | :02:49. | :02:54. | |
your assessment of where the advantage lies in the war? | :02:54. | :02:58. | |
Certainly it is now with the regime. I think that is because essentially | :02:58. | :03:02. | |
the revolution is devouring itself. There is an epidemic of criminality | :03:02. | :03:05. | |
on the rebel side. There is kidnapping, there is looting, | :03:05. | :03:10. | |
sometimes by criminal gangs under the flag of the revolution, | :03:10. | :03:12. | |
sometimes by opposition armed groups who need to fund their | :03:12. | :03:16. | |
activities. All of that, of course, is leading to an increase in | :03:16. | :03:20. | |
popularity by the Jihadis. They were very minor a year ago, now | :03:20. | :03:23. | |
they are extremely important players. The more secular groups | :03:23. | :03:27. | |
are losing out in the battle for spoils. I think that the immediate | :03:27. | :03:30. | |
effect of sending weapons to groups favoured by the west would not be | :03:30. | :03:35. | |
an increase in action against the regime, it would be a real scrap | :03:35. | :03:41. | |
with the Jihadists. Are there any groups within the | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
opposition, briefly, whom the west could support? There are certainly | :03:45. | :03:48. | |
more secular groups, there are groups which can point to a charter | :03:48. | :03:52. | |
for human rights and there are groups which I think the British | :03:52. | :03:55. | |
Government, the French Government and others have identified. They | :03:55. | :03:59. | |
are extremely bitter though. I was speaking to a senior commander this | :03:59. | :04:03. | |
week that the weapons, largely because of Saudi influence still | :04:03. | :04:08. | |
seem to be flowing to Salafi groups. As I said, before there is any | :04:08. | :04:11. | |
effort against the regime, new weapons would be part of what you | :04:11. | :04:18. | |
could call a civil war within the civil war. The civil war in Syria | :04:18. | :04:22. | |
began merely as part of the Arab Spring. Mark Urban is here to tell | :04:22. | :04:27. | |
us how we got to this point. This is a war that has escalated | :04:27. | :04:31. | |
and mutated time and again. Firstly, there has been geographic | :04:31. | :04:36. | |
escalation, most people date the Syrian uprising start to a protest | :04:36. | :04:42. | |
in the south in Deraa in March 2011. It started with graffiti and the | :04:42. | :04:49. | |
pulling down of a statue of Bashar Assad's father, that resulted in | :04:49. | :04:53. | |
arrests and torture, triggering more protests and the use of live | :04:53. | :04:58. | |
fire by Government security people. The early hot spots were Deraa, | :04:58. | :05:04. | |
Hama and certain parts of Homs. At that point and indeed for the first | :05:04. | :05:08. | |
year of conflict, major centres such as Aleppo and Damascus | :05:08. | :05:15. | |
remained largely untouched. Bit by bit the war has consumed one | :05:15. | :05:21. | |
population centre after another. Homs, Aleppo and Damascus, all | :05:21. | :05:28. | |
heavily damaged last year. Now, among the cities, it is only Tartus | :05:28. | :05:31. | |
and Latakia, regime strongholds on the coast that remain largely | :05:31. | :05:37. | |
intact. Along with this geographic spread, the level of violence has | :05:37. | :05:41. | |
been climbing steady upwards too. Early demonstrations prompted | :05:41. | :05:49. | |
gunfire from Assad troops. By the time the district of Homs was being | :05:49. | :05:54. | |
attacked Earl ly -- early in 2012, artillery and tanks were being used | :05:54. | :05:59. | |
freely. By the summer of 2012 the air force too was being used to | :05:59. | :06:03. | |
bomb, often highly inaccurately. Towards the tailend of last year, | :06:03. | :06:07. | |
scud missiles were fired at parts of Aleppo. The final escalation to | :06:07. | :06:11. | |
chemical weapons is alleged by the western powers to have started at | :06:11. | :06:16. | |
around that time too. But the insurgency has also upped the | :06:16. | :06:21. | |
weaponry, starting out with shotguns or a few smuggled rifles, | :06:21. | :06:24. | |
it went on to use more car bombs and captured Government heavy | :06:24. | :06:30. | |
weapons. For the past year, large quantities of modern weaponry, | :06:30. | :06:33. | |
including anti-tank missiles, anti- aircraft missiles and even | :06:33. | :06:38. | |
artillery have been sent to the opposition by its Saudi and Qatari | :06:38. | :06:43. | |
backers. The shipments have been estimated at $3 billion worth. As | :06:43. | :06:49. | |
the intensity of violence has gone up, so has the human cost. During | :06:49. | :06:53. | |
its early months the Syrian uprising claimed fewer than 500 | :06:53. | :06:59. | |
lives per month. For the past year, it has been running at more than | :06:59. | :07:08. | |
5,000 lives per month. Giving a total of 93,000 deaths by June. | :07:08. | :07:12. | |
With that intensifying and expanding violence has come a tide | :07:12. | :07:16. | |
of refugees. During the early months of conflict much of that was | :07:16. | :07:21. | |
happening within the borders of Syria. But this year, the numbers | :07:21. | :07:25. | |
forced abroad have shot up and are now estimated at 1.7 million. | :07:25. | :07:31. | |
Lebanon is the biggest recipient, with 578,000, Jordan runs second, | :07:31. | :07:36. | |
with nearly half a million. Those who fled, but remain within Syria | :07:36. | :07:43. | |
could number as high as 4. 25 million people. No-one is talking | :07:43. | :07:47. | |
about sending British soldiers into Syria. The argument is about other | :07:47. | :07:52. | |
forms of intervention. What might be appropriate if indeed any form | :07:52. | :07:56. | |
of interventions is appropriate. It boils down to this, should we arm | :07:56. | :08:01. | |
the rebels fighting President Assad. Tony Blair, the man who took us | :08:01. | :08:04. | |
into Iraq and Afghanistan thinks it is a moral and practical duty. It | :08:04. | :08:08. | |
is a sign of how little trust even many Conservative MPs have in the | :08:08. | :08:11. | |
current Prime Minister that they are having a debate on Thursday to | :08:11. | :08:14. | |
try to require him to get the consent of parliament before any | :08:14. | :08:18. | |
weapons are sent. If they are sent. We will hear both | :08:18. | :08:22. | |
sides of the argument tonight, first the former Foreign Secretary, | :08:22. | :08:25. | |
Malcolm Rifkind, Sir Malcolm Rifkind, on why we should get | :08:25. | :08:32. | |
involved. You have 90 seconds. question of weather we give help to | :08:32. | :08:34. | |
the moderate, secular Syrian opposition is one of the most | :08:34. | :08:37. | |
difficult decisions we will be asked to reach. There are good | :08:37. | :08:41. | |
arguments on both sides of the question. Like most people I began | :08:41. | :08:45. | |
when this war began hoping it would be a civil war, that the outside | :08:45. | :08:49. | |
world would not have to intervene. I was against the Iraq War, I don't | :08:49. | :08:53. | |
normally support intervention in other people's countries. But as we | :08:53. | :08:57. | |
have seen, intervention has already been happening over the last two | :08:57. | :09:03. | |
years. Russian and Iranian arms have flown into help the Assad | :09:03. | :09:06. | |
regime. Hezbollah troops are fighting with the Assad regime | :09:06. | :09:10. | |
against the Syrian people. So it is against that background that we now | :09:10. | :09:16. | |
have to address that question. And it is not, as you have heard, about | :09:17. | :09:20. | |
sending an army into Syria, it is also not a question of whether | :09:20. | :09:25. | |
Britain, by itself, takes action. We are part of an international | :09:25. | :09:31. | |
community. There are already over 100 countries, more than half the | :09:31. | :09:35. | |
United Nations, that have recognised the Syrian opposition as | :09:35. | :09:40. | |
the legitimate voice of the Syrian people. That includes most of the | :09:40. | :09:43. | |
countries of the Arab League. So it is whether the international | :09:43. | :09:47. | |
community should intervene. I believe that it is both ethically | :09:47. | :09:52. | |
justified as well as politically desirable. Basically two reasons. | :09:52. | :09:56. | |
First of all, the humanitarian reason. Already over 100,000 men, | :09:56. | :10:01. | |
women and children have been killed. Mostly because of a brutal | :10:01. | :10:06. | |
onslaught by the add Assad regime - - the Assad regime against his | :10:06. | :10:11. | |
people. The more the war continues, the more likely we are to see not | :10:11. | :10:15. | |
100,000, but 200,000 a year from now. Even if Assad takes Homs that | :10:15. | :10:19. | |
will still be a very long war. The second reason is the war will only | :10:19. | :10:24. | |
come to an end when both sides recognise that there has to be a | :10:24. | :10:28. | |
political solution, that no side can win entirely on military | :10:28. | :10:33. | |
grounds. And that will only happen, it is my final point. That will | :10:33. | :10:39. | |
only happen when Assad recognises that he has to agree to a new | :10:39. | :10:42. | |
transitional Government. At the moment he has no incentive to make | :10:42. | :10:48. | |
any such concession. Let's hear why we shouldn't get involved, in the | :10:48. | :10:56. | |
case made by another Conservative MP, the floor is your's? The civil | :10:56. | :10:59. | |
war is causing tremendous suffering. Atrocities are being committed by | :10:59. | :11:02. | |
both sides, there are no easy answers. But I would caution | :11:02. | :11:07. | |
against us getting more involved in Syria. If humanitarian concerns are | :11:07. | :11:11. | |
uppermost in everyone's minds, then it is difficult to see how throwing | :11:11. | :11:15. | |
more weapons into this conflict will not result in more violence | :11:15. | :11:20. | |
and more suffering. This is why the UN Secretary-General has said more | :11:20. | :11:25. | |
weapons, more arms would not be helpful. We need to remember that | :11:25. | :11:31. | |
there are extremist elements to both sides of this conflict. On the | :11:31. | :11:35. | |
rebel site there are links with Al- Qaeda. The Government has not been | :11:35. | :11:40. | |
able to answer the charge how would it track and trace weapons to make | :11:40. | :11:44. | |
sure that they didn't fall into the wrong hands on the web side. We | :11:44. | :11:48. | |
must remember it is a fast-moving situation on the ground. We should | :11:48. | :11:55. | |
also remember that we have a poor track record at arming groups. We | :11:55. | :11:58. | |
armed the mujahideen in the 1980s and Saddam Hussein when he attacked | :11:58. | :12:02. | |
Iran, eventually some of those weapons were used against us. | :12:02. | :12:05. | |
Intervention would have wider implications. What we mustn't | :12:05. | :12:10. | |
forget is Syria is a proxy war being fought at different levels. | :12:10. | :12:18. | |
We have Sunni versus Shia, we have Saudi Arabia versus Iran, and China | :12:18. | :12:21. | |
versus Russia. Throwing more weapons into that conflict and fuel | :12:21. | :12:25. | |
on to the fire could extend the conflict beyond Syria's borders. | :12:25. | :12:29. | |
That could be a mistake of historic proportions. What should the west | :12:29. | :12:34. | |
do, we could do more on the humanitarian effort. Why are | :12:34. | :12:39. | |
refugee camps still short of basic amenties, and we could do much more | :12:39. | :12:43. | |
on diplomatic efforts, why is it that the west is presently | :12:43. | :12:48. | |
excluding Iran from any future peace talks. Most people accept | :12:48. | :12:52. | |
that at the end of the day we need a diplomatic solution to this. It | :12:52. | :12:59. | |
is the only viable solution in the long-term. | :12:59. | :13:06. | |
Mauricio Castillo, what do you make -- what do you make of the argument | :13:06. | :13:10. | |
that you don't make peace by adding more weapons? More webs are going | :13:10. | :13:15. | |
in already, -- weapons are going in, they are not just going in from the | :13:15. | :13:19. | |
Iranians, Hezbollah, Iraqi Shia militias and Russia, they are also | :13:19. | :13:24. | |
going in as John mentioned to the extremist Salafist groups, they | :13:24. | :13:27. | |
have their own supply of weapons. They have got weapons that were | :13:27. | :13:31. | |
buried in Iraq that have come in. They have their own private donors | :13:31. | :13:35. | |
in the gulf and the Saudis and the Qataris have been playing a game | :13:35. | :13:38. | |
against each other, not really helping the opposition, and often | :13:38. | :13:44. | |
arming the wrong people if you like. The Salafist groups. The only group | :13:44. | :13:48. | |
not getting a consistent sustained source of weaponry is the Free | :13:48. | :13:54. | |
Syrian Army under the leadership of Salim Idris, he's trying, and doing | :13:54. | :13:57. | |
great work to organise and to become more relevent on the ground, | :13:57. | :14:02. | |
to hold people, the local militias to human rights standards, if he | :14:02. | :14:04. | |
was only more relevent on the ground, because he could give | :14:04. | :14:09. | |
people weapons they needed then we could see a resolution to this | :14:09. | :14:13. | |
reasonably quickly. We could start picking up the pieces. You think | :14:13. | :14:16. | |
arming selected groups of rebels would actually make a resolution to | :14:16. | :14:21. | |
this much quicker? I'm damaging my own argument. I agree it is | :14:21. | :14:27. | |
impossible to make absolutely sure that other, that the extremist | :14:27. | :14:32. | |
groups won't get, because militias will exchange weapons according to | :14:32. | :14:40. | |
the battlefield. However, if you arm Mr Idris's arm, the moderates, | :14:40. | :14:44. | |
the secularists, they will be able to tip the balance against | :14:44. | :14:47. | |
extremists. You have also got family in Syria, what did you make | :14:47. | :14:53. | |
of Malcolm Rifkind's argument? a human rights lawyer. I will never | :14:53. | :14:57. | |
be pro-arming anybody, arms kill people. But when this is the choice | :14:57. | :15:02. | |
against doing nothing, continuing to do nothing, nothing tangible | :15:02. | :15:06. | |
that is making a difference on the ground. While an entire population | :15:06. | :15:10. | |
is being slaughtered. While diplomatic channels have been | :15:10. | :15:16. | |
exhausted, observous low, and nobody happening, the regime -- | :15:16. | :15:21. | |
obviously, nothing is happening and the ray genome has no intention of | :15:21. | :15:25. | |
negotiating or doing anything. They are still using det fact toe | :15:25. | :15:31. | |
immunity they are get -- de facto immunity that they are getting from | :15:31. | :15:36. | |
the international community that nothing will happen. I think the | :15:36. | :15:39. | |
pacifist tendencies are turning to support the dictator. You have run | :15:39. | :15:46. | |
out of patience? It is not about patience, it is about an entire | :15:46. | :15:49. | |
international community watching a population slaughtered. You have | :15:49. | :15:58. | |
been covering the Syria war, since it is in dangerous and difficult | :15:58. | :16:03. | |
situations, what will the consequences be to supplying arms | :16:03. | :16:06. | |
to groups? Without arms you will have established in Assad's mind | :16:06. | :16:12. | |
that he can win the war, arms are leverage. I don't think he can for | :16:12. | :16:16. | |
all sorts of demographic reasons. Unless he really believes that the | :16:16. | :16:21. | |
chance of military victory as alluded him, he will never go to | :16:21. | :16:25. | |
the negotiating table. The only way you can tip that balance and get | :16:25. | :16:29. | |
him to believe that is by arming the rebels. I believe it is a bad | :16:29. | :16:33. | |
option, but it is the best of the bad options, and if you want a | :16:33. | :16:37. | |
negotiated settlement, which we all agree, anyone with any sense will | :16:37. | :16:41. | |
agree is the solution, you will only get that by arming the rebels. | :16:41. | :16:45. | |
There is three people, direct experience, all of them making a | :16:45. | :16:49. | |
different argument to your argument? Having said that, there | :16:49. | :16:52. | |
was an admission that it would be impossible to track and trace these | :16:52. | :16:56. | |
weapons, for a start. Weapons are an asset to be traded in the area. | :16:56. | :17:01. | |
Very little, this is part of the world where very little escapes the | :17:01. | :17:06. | |
bazzar. You would have the weapons moving around the battlefield that | :17:06. | :17:10. | |
is very fluid. Who knows who would end up with them. Can I pick up the | :17:10. | :17:14. | |
point about diplomatic channel, I would suggest they have not | :17:14. | :17:18. | |
exhausted. When you have on the west an approach which says we're | :17:18. | :17:26. | |
not going to allow 0 Iran, a key regional player and a key player | :17:26. | :17:29. | |
within Syria, whatever we think of the country we won't allow them at | :17:29. | :17:33. | |
the forth coming talks when they eventually take place. That doesn't | :17:33. | :17:38. | |
send the signal that we have exhausted all diplomatic efforts. | :17:38. | :17:44. | |
Hang on, I think Malcolm Rifkind was anxious to jump in before you? | :17:44. | :17:47. | |
Jump! It is a particular way about the level of risk we accept that | :17:47. | :17:52. | |
the weapons will end up in the wrong hand. You can't give 100% | :17:52. | :17:55. | |
guarantees, think logically, the only people without weapons at the | :17:55. | :17:59. | |
moment are the Free Syrian Army. The Jihadis already have them, | :17:59. | :18:03. | |
Assad already has them, why should the Free Syrian Army, if it at long | :18:03. | :18:06. | |
last gets weapons, why should it wish to hand them over to people | :18:06. | :18:10. | |
who have already got them and who are their own sworn enemies in | :18:10. | :18:14. | |
terms of the long-term future of Syria. Your turn to jump?Jumping | :18:14. | :18:17. | |
on the diplomatic point, the reason we don't have a diplomatic solution | :18:17. | :18:20. | |
is not because Iran isn't at the negotiating table of the the reason | :18:20. | :18:25. | |
we don't have a diplomatic solution is because the rebels are not | :18:25. | :18:30. | |
prepared to accept a situation where Assad stays in power and the | :18:30. | :18:35. | |
Russians are not prepared to propose something in which Assad he | :18:35. | :18:38. | |
was power. It is not an Iran problem. We have a fundamental | :18:38. | :18:41. | |
problem. This whole discussion we have had, we could have had a | :18:41. | :18:46. | |
flashback to Bosnia. A country in which the people were denied the | :18:46. | :18:50. | |
ability to defend themselves against a brutal dictator, where | :18:50. | :18:53. | |
the international community, including the United States, | :18:53. | :18:58. | |
particularly Britain, Malcolm you may not agree with this, were | :18:58. | :19:02. | |
complicit in denying the Bosnian Muslims the ability to defend | :19:02. | :19:07. | |
themselves. And until there was an equalisation on the battlefield by | :19:07. | :19:11. | |
the Croatian victory, the use of air power, there was no negotiated | :19:11. | :19:15. | |
solution. If we go on down the path we are on we will be having this | :19:15. | :19:18. | |
programme a year from now, two years from now and three years from | :19:18. | :19:21. | |
now. You make a comparison with Bosnia, with one of the commanders | :19:21. | :19:25. | |
who was in Bosnia, they are here, what do you make of the argument of | :19:25. | :19:29. | |
arming the rebels? There is a parallel with Bosnia and the fact | :19:29. | :19:35. | |
that for three years the Bosnian war dragged on and on with | :19:35. | :19:40. | |
increasing violence and obskenity is something which I think rest -- | :19:41. | :19:47. | |
obscenity is something which rests in people's consciences, let alone | :19:47. | :19:54. | |
memories. It was exemplfied by the massacre in veb nieceia. It was | :19:54. | :20:01. | |
only -- Srebrenica, it was only then we were sable to turn the | :20:01. | :20:05. | |
situation around. Bosnia is not Syria, you have to judge them both | :20:05. | :20:11. | |
on mr its, not for the first time it is damned in you do and damned | :20:11. | :20:16. | |
in you don't. But if the assumption is there can be no settlement or | :20:16. | :20:20. | |
future for Syria, whilst Assad is still in power, then that pushes | :20:20. | :20:30. | |
:20:30. | :20:30. | ||
you in the direction to take some risk. I accept giving weapons to | :20:30. | :20:36. | |
the "rebels, which rebels and how do you gauorn -- "rebels", which | :20:36. | :20:41. | |
rebels and how do you guarantee they won't do other things with the | :20:41. | :20:44. | |
weapons. One aspect which is less emotive than weapons and where they | :20:44. | :20:48. | |
might finish up is training the right people. We can perhaps do | :20:48. | :20:54. | |
something there. But you wouldn't arm them? That, as I say, is a very | :20:54. | :20:56. | |
difficult decision Jeremy. It is a difficult decision, I'm asking you | :20:56. | :21:02. | |
to make it? I'm not a politician. You can have an opinion? You are a | :21:02. | :21:08. | |
very experienced fella. If you pushed me into the corner, yes, I | :21:08. | :21:14. | |
would look to arming the Free Syrian Army. What measures you can | :21:14. | :21:18. | |
put in place to avoid those weapons going elsewhere is a much more | :21:18. | :21:22. | |
difficult question. It is almost impossible isn't it? It is.Would | :21:22. | :21:25. | |
that be legal? Not under international law would it be | :21:26. | :21:30. | |
lawful to arm the rebels. Arming the rebels would be equivalent to | :21:30. | :21:33. | |
using force in Syria. It would be no different to going into Syria, | :21:34. | :21:38. | |
as a matter of law, it would be no difference than going into Syria | :21:38. | :21:42. | |
with our own troops, it would be indirect use of force. That is | :21:42. | :21:45. | |
prohibited by the United Nations charter. Have you told that to the | :21:45. | :21:49. | |
Russians, have you told it to the Saudis, to the Iranians? There is a | :21:49. | :21:52. | |
difference with the Russians, because this is what the Russians | :21:52. | :21:57. | |
say, that they are arming the Government. The west is proposing | :21:57. | :22:03. | |
to arm the rebels. The Saudis and the Qataris are arming the rebels | :22:03. | :22:10. | |
and on General Mike Jackson's point, training is going on at the moment. | :22:10. | :22:14. | |
Does this legality point worry you? While we had a European arms | :22:14. | :22:19. | |
embargo, or if there was a United Nations arms embargo, that would | :22:19. | :22:23. | |
clearly make it improper to provide arms. But the idea that because | :22:23. | :22:27. | |
Assad, according to the Russians, is still the Government of Syria, | :22:27. | :22:34. | |
that may be the Russian's view, but I made the point earlier, over 100 | :22:34. | :22:38. | |
countries have said they recognise the Syrian opposition as the Syrian | :22:38. | :22:43. | |
poxmen for the people. Even the Arab -- spokesman for the people. | :22:43. | :22:48. | |
Even the Arab League has expelled Assad and invited the Free Syrian | :22:48. | :22:53. | |
Army to take the seat. Even the UK doesn't recognise the rebels as the | :22:53. | :22:57. | |
Government, they recognise them as legitimate representives of the | :22:57. | :23:01. | |
people. That is not the same and the UK and US accept that. That is | :23:01. | :23:04. | |
not the same as being the Government. We make a mockery of | :23:04. | :23:08. | |
legal distinctions if we say it is OK for the Russians and the | :23:08. | :23:12. | |
Iranians to pour in arms and Hezbollah to fight with the Syrian | :23:12. | :23:15. | |
Assad regime, but to give help to the secular democratic forces | :23:15. | :23:19. | |
trying to reform the country, we can't possibly do that because of | :23:19. | :23:29. | |
:23:29. | :23:33. | ||
some curious legal interpretation. It wouldn't be able to be tried? | :23:33. | :23:36. | |
is not impossible but it wouldn't happen to take a case against the | :23:36. | :23:39. | |
UK. What could happen, and this goes to the point of where the arms | :23:39. | :23:43. | |
might go, is the UK, the US or any other country would bear | :23:43. | :23:47. | |
responsibility, or could bear responsibility for what happened to | :23:47. | :23:53. | |
those arms and the ways in which they are used, in effect, we would | :23:53. | :23:58. | |
be responsible for what happened. There is a school of thought saying | :23:58. | :24:02. | |
it is too late already? Intervention might have been more | :24:02. | :24:05. | |
effective earlier on before the situation became so radicalised. It | :24:05. | :24:09. | |
is a great pity that Assad didn't seem from the beginning to have any | :24:09. | :24:12. | |
fear of intervention. Commander at NATO and so on said very clearly | :24:13. | :24:17. | |
from the outset that they had had no desire to intervene. He has | :24:17. | :24:21. | |
clearly been acting and testing the boundaries, he started off with | :24:21. | :24:26. | |
lower levels of killing and as it became evident that direct | :24:26. | :24:30. | |
intervention wasn't coming he has escalate and even to the point of | :24:30. | :24:34. | |
inviting fighters from overseas which is a game-changer and crosses | :24:34. | :24:37. | |
new boundaries. You have been there and you have heard what Mike | :24:37. | :24:40. | |
Jackson has to say possibly about the wisdom of training forces. You | :24:40. | :24:44. | |
have seen training going on haven't you? I haven't seen the training | :24:44. | :24:48. | |
conducted by the Americans, in which the FSA have just asked the | :24:48. | :24:53. | |
British to do in Jordan. They have asked British Special Forces to | :24:53. | :24:56. | |
train rebel Special Forces. There is a lot of training going on in | :24:56. | :25:00. | |
the north among the rebels. On the argument of tracking and tracing | :25:00. | :25:04. | |
weapons, we should get out of the mid-80s of the track and trace | :25:04. | :25:09. | |
argument, we gave the wrong groups, the mujahideen the wrong weapons | :25:09. | :25:13. | |
and look what happened with blowback. In this era now you can | :25:13. | :25:17. | |
track and trace, not with 100% accuracy, but with a far greater | :25:17. | :25:24. | |
degree of accuracy. You can enable and disable remotely shoulder- | :25:24. | :25:26. | |
launched anti-aircraft missile systems, as well as tracking them. | :25:26. | :25:35. | |
Of course there will be some leakage. But it is a world, small | :25:35. | :25:38. | |
arms aren't the big sensitivity, it is an Israeli aircraft being shot | :25:38. | :25:44. | |
down by a rebel, or one of our's or a terrorist group using anti- | :25:45. | :25:47. | |
aircraft missiles. Anti-aircraft missiles are the big problem. They | :25:47. | :25:52. | |
can be much more tightly controlled than they could have been 30 years | :25:52. | :25:57. | |
ago. If these very, rather bigger weapons are traceable, what is the | :25:57. | :26:02. | |
problem? Because I think even those who argue it is traceable cannot | :26:02. | :26:05. | |
offer 100% guarantee. You simply can't. You throw these weapons into | :26:05. | :26:09. | |
a conflict. It is fast-moving on the ground. The weapons themselves | :26:09. | :26:13. | |
would become assets that could be traded. You know, as I said, | :26:13. | :26:17. | |
nothing escapes the bizarre at the end of the day. We don't know where | :26:17. | :26:20. | |
they would -- bazzar at the end of the day. We don't know where they | :26:20. | :26:25. | |
would end up with the best of intentions. Are we living in the | :26:25. | :26:29. | |
21st century or the 19th century. The biggest mistake is fighting | :26:29. | :26:32. | |
today's war learning the wrong lessons from yesterday's war. While | :26:32. | :26:36. | |
we learn from the Balkans and Sierra Leone and all those | :26:36. | :26:41. | |
particular places, today's wars are not won on the battlefield. They | :26:41. | :26:45. | |
are taking place digitally, they are taking place in the hearts and | :26:45. | :26:49. | |
mind of the people and refugees, on many, many fronts. Sure you can get | :26:49. | :26:52. | |
a temporary military ascendancy on the ground, but this will not bring | :26:52. | :26:56. | |
the war to an end. The idea that by having the balance of a conflict on | :26:56. | :27:01. | |
the ground you can force these people to the negotiating table is | :27:01. | :27:04. | |
rubbish. It might have been true in the last century, but the way the | :27:04. | :27:09. | |
mood is in the Middle East and the gulf and around the world is isn't | :27:09. | :27:13. | |
like that. Let's explore some options, arming the rebels isn't | :27:13. | :27:18. | |
the only thing on the table for those who believe saving minds in | :27:18. | :27:22. | |
Syria demand we get involved. Here is a reminder of what they might be. | :27:22. | :27:30. | |
The first, favoured by Tony Blair, John McCain and others is it a no- | :27:30. | :27:36. | |
fly zone. This could see coalition forces in Turkey or Jordan used to | :27:36. | :27:40. | |
stop Syrian air power from operating in specific areas. Those | :27:40. | :27:45. | |
areas could form safe zones for the rebel forces or allow international | :27:45. | :27:49. | |
groups to set up humanitarian corridors for aid deliveries. | :27:49. | :27:53. | |
Ultimately you could extend no-fly to the whole country. The second | :27:53. | :27:57. | |
option could be strategic air strikes, which would involve | :27:57. | :28:01. | |
bombing key ray genome command centres and air defences to skilt - | :28:02. | :28:05. | |
- regime command centres and air defences to tilt the balance of the | :28:05. | :28:08. | |
conflict away from Government forces and give an advantage on the | :28:08. | :28:13. | |
ground. The biggest headache for western and regional loaders would | :28:13. | :28:17. | |
be securing Syria's chemical weapons stockpile if that had to | :28:17. | :28:24. | |
happen. Experts are far from convinced it could happen at all, | :28:24. | :28:28. | |
if it were to be attempted forces from several nations could be deed | :28:28. | :28:32. | |
employed. This is a nightmare scenario. The striking thing is how | :28:32. | :28:36. | |
reluctant the Pentagon top brass, or that in Whitehall, are to mount | :28:36. | :28:44. | |
any of these operations. Eddie Izzard, you are just back as | :28:44. | :28:48. | |
a UNICEF ambassador from some of the refugee camps. How urgent is | :28:48. | :28:54. | |
the need for had you tantarian intervention? I think it is very -- | :28:54. | :28:57. | |
humanitarian intervention? I think it is very urgent. The arguments | :28:57. | :29:00. | |
and discussion here it is a really difficult question to get this | :29:00. | :29:03. | |
sorted. There are kids who have just lost homes and schooling, lost | :29:03. | :29:08. | |
their lives and loved ones as well, coming up to 100,000 people who | :29:08. | :29:14. | |
have died now. I was up in the north of Iraq and the refugee camp. | :29:14. | :29:18. | |
The temperatures are mid-40s, all day it is 40 degrees, that is a | :29:18. | :29:23. | |
hellish temperature to live in. The kids are having lost their lives, | :29:23. | :29:27. | |
we need another �200 million, that is what UNICEF need. I'm | :29:27. | :29:32. | |
encouraging people to go to the website and dedoate if they can. | :29:32. | :29:37. | |
This other question -- donate if they can. The other questions rage, | :29:37. | :29:41. | |
but the humanitarian situation, people going over different borders. | :29:41. | :29:47. | |
Describe to us the feeling in the camps about what the rest of the | :29:47. | :29:53. | |
world might do? They, I think on the ground they want them to arm | :29:54. | :29:56. | |
the rebels. That's my interpretation of the feeling. A | :29:56. | :30:02. | |
lot of these people have come out and they want, and it wasn't the | :30:02. | :30:06. | |
more religious parts, and it is my interpretation of it, not a UNICEF | :30:06. | :30:13. | |
position on it. I felt they said can we give help to these people to | :30:13. | :30:17. | |
again arm them against the Assad regime. That is my feeling and they | :30:17. | :30:21. | |
weren't saying it specifically, that is how I felt. Malloch Brown, | :30:21. | :30:26. | |
you were nodding? I think it is a dilemma that ultimately we will | :30:26. | :30:35. | |
have to arm the webs rebels, it is literally a -- the rebels. It is | :30:35. | :30:40. | |
literally defending those who are refugees. In arriving in a solution | :30:40. | :30:45. | |
in the negotiating peace settlement we have all talked about, more arms | :30:45. | :30:48. | |
is counter-productive. You can't get away from that. Do you favour | :30:48. | :30:53. | |
any other ideas of interveings? me say what is happening next door | :30:53. | :30:58. | |
in Egypt is an important reminder that whether it is Syria, Egypt or | :30:58. | :31:03. | |
any other country in the region, only a Government that represents a | :31:03. | :31:08. | |
broad group of minorities and religions and ethnic groups can | :31:08. | :31:13. | |
possibly govern in a way that enjoys broad consent and is able to | :31:13. | :31:21. | |
establish an inclusive human rights environment. You will never get | :31:21. | :31:26. | |
there through the barrel of the gun. It becomes less and less possible | :31:26. | :31:29. | |
every day Assad stays in power. For two-and-a-half years we have said | :31:29. | :31:33. | |
if we get involved and help the vast majority of the Syrian people | :31:33. | :31:37. | |
and give them what they are asking for and help finish the thing | :31:37. | :31:41. | |
itself it will get wore. Over a quarter of Syrians are refugees | :31:41. | :31:49. | |
outside or dismazeed inside. The sectarian -- dis dispersed inside. | :31:49. | :31:57. | |
The sectarian threat of Assad is happening. Lebanon is fatally | :31:57. | :32:00. | |
destablised, Turkey is suffering knock-on effects. There are | :32:00. | :32:05. | |
killings of Shia going on in Egypt as a result of the Syria situation. | :32:05. | :32:09. | |
Spreading and becoming bigger and bigger and bigger because nobody is | :32:09. | :32:12. | |
going in and giving weapons to the people on the ground who are asking | :32:12. | :32:17. | |
for that. The vast majority of the people who could finish the things | :32:17. | :32:21. | |
themselves. There is no happy ending now, it is far too late. We | :32:21. | :32:24. | |
could begin to pick up the pieces and get people to their villages | :32:24. | :32:30. | |
and reopen schools and hospitals. Can we explore more the other | :32:30. | :32:34. | |
intervention possibilities, you have seen genocide in places like | :32:34. | :32:40. | |
Darfur and Rwanda. People think back to the war in which Saddam | :32:40. | :32:42. | |
Hussein turned his guns on the Kurds. The international commune | :32:42. | :32:46. | |
toe said for a long time they can't do anything about this. Then they | :32:46. | :32:50. | |
imposed a no-fly zone. Is anything like that justifyable in these | :32:50. | :32:57. | |
sorts of circumstances? Yes, I think from menu we were presented | :32:57. | :33:01. | |
by Mark Urban, the no-fly zone and being more imaginative in the | :33:01. | :33:07. | |
provision of humanitarian aid, certainly it is on the cards. You | :33:07. | :33:11. | |
know from your experienced many years a I worked with Sir Mike | :33:11. | :33:15. | |
Jackson in the Balkans, we haven't even start doing humanitarian aid | :33:15. | :33:19. | |
properly. The debate is so occupied by military intervention it sucks | :33:19. | :33:27. | |
the oxygen out of political efforts and completely undermines the had | :33:27. | :33:32. | |
you machinetarian effort. Can we arm the rebels and shove for | :33:32. | :33:39. | |
weapons, at the same time saying here is food and neutral | :33:39. | :33:46. | |
humanitarian assistance, it is an oxymore ran. Is the no-fly -- | :33:46. | :33:53. | |
Objection see more ran. Is the -- Is the no-fly zone | :33:53. | :33:58. | |
something that could happen? don't think so. Obama is very | :33:58. | :34:01. | |
quiet? There is a pattern following the last war, President Obama and | :34:01. | :34:05. | |
the American people were traumatised by Iraq, by the | :34:05. | :34:09. | |
failures, the mistakes and all the things said by many people on | :34:09. | :34:13. | |
programmes like this, how horrible Iraq was. Has caused, in my opinion, | :34:13. | :34:18. | |
an overreaction the they are looking at Syria through the eyes | :34:18. | :34:23. | |
of the mistakes in Iraq. If the United States were responding as | :34:23. | :34:29. | |
the United States did in the 1990, the United Nations has called this | :34:29. | :34:35. | |
the worst humanitarian crisis in the history in terms of refugees. | :34:35. | :34:38. | |
We forget. There there is no response in the west and the United | :34:38. | :34:43. | |
States because Iraq has traumatised the west. If there were a no-fly | :34:43. | :34:47. | |
zone in the beginning, if there was a real decision toen gauge in the | :34:47. | :34:50. | |
beginning, I don't think we would have reached this point. We will be | :34:50. | :34:54. | |
here the same point a year from now and two years from now unless we do | :34:54. | :34:58. | |
something. We have heard you say why you don't believe in arming the | :34:58. | :35:02. | |
rebels. What would be wrong with establishing a humanitarian | :35:02. | :35:09. | |
corridor which British and other military forces assisted with? | :35:09. | :35:13. | |
Acertain low think and agree with the gentleman previously that we | :35:13. | :35:17. | |
need more on the humanitarian front. Eddie has been back from refugee | :35:17. | :35:22. | |
camps and they are desoperately short of basic amenties, we talk | :35:22. | :35:28. | |
about throwing arms in, why not turn the money into humanitarian | :35:28. | :35:32. | |
relief. What about protecting people? For a no-fly zone you need | :35:32. | :35:36. | |
a UN resolution for that. When you have Russians and Chinese at the | :35:36. | :35:39. | |
table it will be hard to deliver in the air. What about trying? Of the | :35:39. | :35:46. | |
you can try, but at the end of the day I'm' not convinced that more | :35:46. | :35:50. | |
weaponry, more force, more intervention is the answer here. I | :35:50. | :35:53. | |
think the vast majority of the people accept you need at the end | :35:53. | :35:57. | |
of the day a diplomatic solution. Trying force some sort of stalemate | :35:57. | :36:02. | |
on the grouped is very high risk and can only add to the violence. | :36:02. | :36:07. | |
You are desperate to get in. there is one thing to learn from | :36:07. | :36:13. | |
the Bosnian expeer kwhrns is don't call something a safe -- experience, | :36:13. | :36:16. | |
is don't call something a safe haven unless you have the military | :36:16. | :36:21. | |
support to back it up. It is complimentry, the logic of much of | :36:21. | :36:26. | |
this discussion has been that firstly, Assad will not of himself | :36:26. | :36:36. | |
:36:36. | :36:38. | ||
go for some form of settlement. He would see that as defoot. Unless he | :36:38. | :36:42. | |
-- defeat. Unless he is himself defeated we are at an impasse. That | :36:42. | :36:47. | |
takes you to doing more to assist the rebels. That seems to me to | :36:47. | :36:57. | |
:36:57. | :37:01. | ||
flow through the whole of this debate. The logic would be logic if | :37:01. | :37:07. | |
the rebels were a party with a coherent political agenda that | :37:07. | :37:10. | |
enjoyed the support of the population, not just on the rebel | :37:10. | :37:17. | |
side but elsewhere. And who had the leadership and the skills and all | :37:17. | :37:22. | |
sorts of things. Some of the rebels committing as many atrocities and | :37:22. | :37:28. | |
then an army as much as the Government would be terrible. | :37:28. | :37:33. | |
is like Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Palestine and Israel are a modern | :37:33. | :37:42. | |
invention, carved out of the ruin of the otterman empire. The war has | :37:42. | :37:46. | |
implications beyond Syria. Already Lebanon has sent fighters there, | :37:46. | :37:50. | |
and all neighbouring states shelter refugees. Britain promised �50 | :37:50. | :37:55. | |
million to Lebanon to help the country cope with the refugee | :37:55. | :37:59. | |
inflation. A country half the size of Wales is expected to be | :38:00. | :38:03. | |
sheltering over a million Syrians by the end of the year. As we have | :38:03. | :38:08. | |
been discussing the shockwaves from Syria's civil war are being felt | :38:08. | :38:15. | |
all across the region. The sectarian dynamics resonate in | :38:15. | :38:18. | |
Lebanon after clashes between the communities. Hezbollah is based | :38:19. | :38:22. | |
this, and has sent thousands of fighters to support the Assad | :38:22. | :38:26. | |
regime. The rebel Lebanese Sunnis have been sending people across as | :38:27. | :38:32. | |
well into the Syrian national army. Not surprisingly the tensions have | :38:32. | :38:37. | |
triggered fighting inside Lebanon too. Tonight's car bomb, for | :38:37. | :38:43. | |
example, religious tensions in Iraq are also being exacerbated. | :38:43. | :38:47. | |
Sectarian violence is increasing with fighters and equipment moving | :38:47. | :38:54. | |
across the porous border. Iran a critically important ally in the | :38:54. | :38:57. | |
region for President Assad, they have supplied military advisers and | :38:57. | :39:00. | |
there is evidence of Iranian- supplied weapons on the ground too. | :39:00. | :39:03. | |
Then there is Turkey, of course, hundreds of thousands of Syrian | :39:03. | :39:08. | |
refugees have gone there, and the Syrian conflict has heightened | :39:08. | :39:13. | |
tensions amongst Kurds and Alawites within Turkey. The Prime Minister's | :39:13. | :39:17. | |
support for President Assad's energise has been cited by many as | :39:17. | :39:27. | |
:39:27. | :39:27. | ||
one reason for the recent protests against him. How po tensionly does | :39:27. | :39:33. | |
it -- potentially does it destablise the whole region? It is | :39:33. | :39:37. | |
increasingly destablising, Iraq we should be most worried about. We | :39:37. | :39:42. | |
saw the death toll go over 1,000 in May, technically described as a | :39:42. | :39:46. | |
civil war. Britain could do more to help protect Iraq and help Iraq | :39:46. | :39:51. | |
protect its own borders. But for the reasons mentioned, Iraq still a | :39:51. | :39:57. | |
toxic word in American and British milt kal discourse, it needs more | :39:57. | :40:00. | |
attention -- political discourse. It need more attention. It begs the | :40:00. | :40:05. | |
question of why is this our job? is about what will happen if we | :40:05. | :40:10. | |
don't do anything about it. Assad will take Homs in the next few days | :40:10. | :40:12. | |
and Aleppo. What he cannot do because he doesn't have the | :40:12. | :40:18. | |
military might to do is reoccupy the whole of Syria. He needs | :40:18. | :40:22. | |
Hezbollah and that shows how weak he is by himself. That will lead to | :40:22. | :40:27. | |
empty zones of Syria where the Jihadis will nourish. They will | :40:27. | :40:31. | |
flourish on both sides of the border of Syria and Iraq. That side | :40:31. | :40:34. | |
of Iraq is also dangerous territory. If you think of the problems we | :40:34. | :40:39. | |
have had in Yemen, Somalia, Male. We will see the creation of a | :40:39. | :40:43. | |
similar problem right in the heart of Syria. Is this Britain's | :40:43. | :40:47. | |
business? I don't think it is directly Britain's business, but it | :40:47. | :40:50. | |
is Britain's as part of the international communities business. | :40:50. | :40:54. | |
This is something that could blow up a whole region of vital | :40:54. | :41:00. | |
strategic importance to us all. Draw us into massive humanitarian | :41:00. | :41:05. | |
organisations. There are real CoS and we are right to be engaged W we | :41:05. | :41:09. | |
have to come back to the score prop possession -- we have to come back | :41:09. | :41:13. | |
to the core proposition here, how to get Syrians to live side-by-side | :41:13. | :41:18. | |
together again. As we look at what has happened in the region, the | :41:18. | :41:23. | |
focus of humanitarian and political processes, humanitarian, against | :41:23. | :41:27. | |
political is the only way out of here. I was there in Bosnia too, it | :41:27. | :41:31. | |
is a ghost in Raul of our lives, the solution to Bosnia is something | :41:31. | :41:36. | |
we can't have this time around, American military no-fly and | :41:36. | :41:45. | |
intervention. Plus, ultimately a willingness of communities to come | :41:45. | :41:53. | |
together for a egg no, to get a peace agreement between communities. | :41:53. | :42:00. | |
It any of our business? I share the view if you, if it is directly for | :42:00. | :42:03. | |
the UK to unilateral low take action for whatever reason. No, we | :42:03. | :42:08. | |
are not going to be able to do whatever may be decided as the | :42:08. | :42:15. | |
single nation, far from it. We are part of the international community | :42:16. | :42:18. | |
and we are a permanent member of the Security Council. We are | :42:19. | :42:23. | |
assuming in all of this it is a collective effort? We can't | :42:23. | :42:27. | |
disentangible ourselves and say it is nothing to do with us. | :42:27. | :42:37. | |
:42:37. | :42:46. | ||
Circumstances are self-he have tent. What is it like there? There is | :42:46. | :42:54. | |
help lose, and Sharia Law has been set up because of necessity rather | :42:54. | :42:58. | |
than desire. People need aid, a big British aid package was announced | :42:58. | :43:05. | |
and that is good, more needs to be done. We need managive ways to | :43:05. | :43:09. | |
bring hope. -- imaginative ways to bring hope. When you do a | :43:09. | :43:12. | |
competitive army, tomorrow it will be middle range missiles, will one | :43:13. | :43:19. | |
side be sitting there waiting. point you miss is all these things, | :43:19. | :43:22. | |
thermomissiles, air strikes, chemical weapons, are being used by | :43:22. | :43:28. | |
the regime against the opposition. They are not both sides, against | :43:28. | :43:38. | |
:43:38. | :43:39. | ||
the people. Then do something for the people. It is said the | :43:39. | :43:43. | |
atrocities are the same on the both sides, Human Rights Watch and other | :43:43. | :43:48. | |
groups say the vast majority of atrocities and deaths are from the | :43:48. | :43:52. | |
regime. WeThey have an organised and systematic plan of torturing | :43:52. | :43:56. | |
people to death and raping people on a mass level. I'm' trying to get | :43:56. | :44:02. | |
some answers. What business is this of our's? I can't obviously speak | :44:02. | :44:07. | |
for the British but I speak as an American and member of NATO and the | :44:07. | :44:12. | |
west. I used to think that we considered it our business when | :44:12. | :44:16. | |
four million people have been driven from their homes in a part | :44:16. | :44:23. | |
of the world that is supposed to be important to us. Those four million | :44:23. | :44:27. | |
people from the messages get are getting more and more angry, they | :44:27. | :44:31. | |
will be an grow refugees, and they become dangerous people. We can't | :44:31. | :44:36. | |
fix this with the barrel of a gun. But we will be deluding ourselves | :44:36. | :44:41. | |
if we think that we can solve this problem without the leader of | :44:41. | :44:46. | |
Bashar Assad, the roder of Syria, facing -- leader of Syria facing | :44:46. | :44:50. | |
pressure. We know that is the only thing to work. All you would point | :44:50. | :44:54. | |
out is the one country not mentioned, likely to implode we | :44:54. | :44:59. | |
should all agree on is Jordan. That is being overwhelmed by refugees. | :44:59. | :45:02. | |
This is the kingdom that Britain, the United States, we all used to | :45:02. | :45:09. | |
care about that place and we should, at a minimum, be willing to help | :45:09. | :45:16. | |
defend Jordan before it goes under. You have a quick word before the | :45:16. | :45:20. | |
summing up. Only guarantee against the extremists are the democratic | :45:20. | :45:23. | |
and secular Syrians being targeted by everybody now. If you do not | :45:23. | :45:28. | |
give those a chance everything that we are worried about will only | :45:28. | :45:32. | |
exacerbate. Do you think it is our business? I do, through the | :45:32. | :45:35. | |
international community. We have to be heading towards a one world | :45:35. | :45:39. | |
where we do have freedom for everyone. No-one ever thinks of | :45:39. | :45:42. | |
this because it is too big a weight to think. We have to head in that | :45:42. | :45:50. | |
direction, and every time we don't, when people lose hope it fuels them | :45:50. | :45:56. | |
turning towards something more aggressive and terrorism for the | :45:56. | :46:00. | |
future. The humanitarian situation is very rough we have a lost | :46:00. | :46:04. | |
generation. Let's hear a final summing up from protagonists, I | :46:04. | :46:10. | |
don't suppose either of you has changed your mind, I hope you are | :46:10. | :46:14. | |
enlightened by what you have heard. Give us your final pitch? I think | :46:14. | :46:18. | |
it is our business, but in this sense, we could do a lot more from | :46:18. | :46:23. | |
a humanitarian point of view, a lot more. That has been brought out in | :46:23. | :46:27. | |
the discussion. We could do a lot more diplomatically, I cited Iran | :46:27. | :46:30. | |
of what we are doing wrong, there is more to push down the political | :46:30. | :46:34. | |
solution, that is what it has to come down toe at the end of the day. | :46:34. | :46:40. | |
We have to learn from history on this. There is a deficit of trust | :46:40. | :46:42. | |
with regards to western interventions general loo. We went | :46:42. | :46:48. | |
to war on a false premise to Iraq. When we were told the mission in | :46:48. | :46:53. | |
Afghanistan would go from defeating Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. We were | :46:53. | :46:57. | |
told we would be in and out without firing a shot. Western | :46:57. | :47:01. | |
interventions have had a habit of having an embeding effect on | :47:01. | :47:06. | |
regimes. That is why communism has survived longest in those countries | :47:06. | :47:11. | |
where the west intervened. Whether it North Korea, Cuba or China. | :47:11. | :47:16. | |
can all agree it should be more diplomatic and humanitarian effort, | :47:16. | :47:22. | |
we can't show it the serious questions. Assad's tactic has been | :47:22. | :47:26. | |
to try to force the world or his own people to recognise the Jihadi | :47:26. | :47:30. | |
terrorists. We wants to exclude the secular, moderate forces, who | :47:30. | :47:34. | |
actually have more support in Syria than anybody else. If there is | :47:34. | :47:40. | |
going to be a negotiated settlement, which we are all agreed, it can | :47:40. | :47:46. | |
only happen if Assad fols and recognises that he must go and | :47:46. | :47:50. | |
negotiate and recognise that he can't win by military ens moo. | :47:50. | :47:54. | |
Until the moderate forces are given the weapons they need to defend | :47:54. | :47:59. | |
their own communities and to put pressure on Assad, the killing will | :47:59. | :48:06. | |
continue, not just of fighters but men, women and children. | :48:06. | :48:10. | |
That is all, tomorrow night we have a special report on how one of the | :48:10. | :48:12. | |
most powerful and feared political organisations in Pakistan is run | :48:13. | :48:22. | |
:48:23. | :48:24. | ||
from a suburb of London. Until then from a suburb of London. Until then | :48:24. | :48:34. | |
:48:34. | :48:57. | ||
good night. A cloudy day and thicker cloud to the north-east, | :48:57. | :49:00. | |
bright spells for the afternoon. The best of sunshine further south | :49:00. | :49:04. | |
and west. Another hot and sunny day for part of Northern Ireland. | :49:04. | :49:07. | |
South-west of Scotland still enjoying temperatures into the mid- | :49:07. | :49:13. | |
20s, further north and east with some mist and low cloud, 14 degrees | :49:13. | :49:18. | |
in Aberdeen. A much cooler day across the east coast of England. | :49:18. | :49:22. | |
Moving further inland temperatures in the low 20s. A pleasant | :49:22. | :49:26. | |
afternoon, breezy to the south-east corner but sunny spells in the | :49:26. | :49:30. | |
afternoon. More cloud than we are used to, the best of the sunshine | :49:30. | :49:34. | |
for south-west England, here our highest temperatures, we have the | :49:34. | :49:39. | |
potential to reach 28/29 degrees somewhere. With the heat and a | :49:39. | :49:43. | |
singering weather front it could give us enough moisture to trigger | :49:43. | :49:46. | |
a few sharp showers across part of Wales for the afternoon. Wednesday | :49:46. | :49:49. | |
and Thursday sees the high pressure building back in for the end of the | :49:49. | :49:53. | |
week. So we will start to lose the cloud with brighter spells | :49:53. | :49:59. | |
developing, temperatures recovery as well. In fact, overall 3.30, | :49:59. | :50:02. |