09/07/2013 Newsnight


09/07/2013

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watches, Egypt trembles, men, women and children are dying in Syria, is

:00:19.:00:23.

it time to arm the rebels fighting the Assad dictatorship, in a

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special programme tonight, we will hear why common humanity demands we

:00:28.:00:33.

act and common sense may demand we don't. Two politicians, one for

:00:33.:00:37.

intervention and one who thinks it would be a disaster make their case.

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They face questions on what's at stake. Among our guests here in the

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studio, all of whom ought to know what they are talking about, people

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with families living in the Syrian cauldron, a commander of

:00:49.:00:53.

intervention forces in the Balkans, a former American Assistant

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Secretary of State, a Times journalist who has spent months at

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the war, and the UNICEF ambassador back today from Syrian refugee

:01:01.:01:11.
:01:11.:01:18.

camps. In Cairo today the military were quickly building new civilian

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ministers in the Government they are building hoping people will

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bear with them and avoiding a civil war, we shall see if it works. In

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Syria one rages, it is currently focused on Syria's third-biggest

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city, Homs, bombed by Assad forces for 11 days and where humanitarian

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organisations say people are dying for lack of medical care. The

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Russians, the regime's most powerful supporters said their

:01:46.:01:51.

analysis confirmed the use of chemical weapons in the war, but

:01:51.:01:56.

unlike western powers who blame President Assad's forces they claim

:01:56.:01:59.

it is most likely the rebels who were responsible.

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Our correspondent is in Beirut for us. What is happening in Syria

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right now? First of all I should say Beirut has seen something it

:02:09.:02:15.

hasn't for a long time, it was a car bomb in Shi'ite Hezbollah

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southern Beirut. Everybody assumes that is payback for Hezbollah

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sending fighters to aid the Syrian regime. Most notably in Qasar, they

:02:24.:02:29.

are noted to be helping the Syrian regime capture Homs. We spoke to

:02:29.:02:33.

people in areas held by the rebels for the past two years, almost

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deserted now, a few fighters remaining behind to make a last-

:02:38.:02:42.

ditch stand, some strapping on suicide vests, the fall of Homs

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seems imminent, that would be a bad blow indeed for the rebels.

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have been in and out of Syria for the last couple of years, what is

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your assessment of where the advantage lies in the war?

:02:54.:02:58.

Certainly it is now with the regime. I think that is because essentially

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the revolution is devouring itself. There is an epidemic of criminality

:03:02.:03:05.

on the rebel side. There is kidnapping, there is looting,

:03:05.:03:10.

sometimes by criminal gangs under the flag of the revolution,

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sometimes by opposition armed groups who need to fund their

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activities. All of that, of course, is leading to an increase in

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popularity by the Jihadis. They were very minor a year ago, now

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they are extremely important players. The more secular groups

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are losing out in the battle for spoils. I think that the immediate

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effect of sending weapons to groups favoured by the west would not be

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an increase in action against the regime, it would be a real scrap

:03:35.:03:41.

with the Jihadists. Are there any groups within the

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opposition, briefly, whom the west could support? There are certainly

:03:45.:03:48.

more secular groups, there are groups which can point to a charter

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for human rights and there are groups which I think the British

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Government, the French Government and others have identified. They

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are extremely bitter though. I was speaking to a senior commander this

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week that the weapons, largely because of Saudi influence still

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seem to be flowing to Salafi groups. As I said, before there is any

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effort against the regime, new weapons would be part of what you

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could call a civil war within the civil war. The civil war in Syria

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began merely as part of the Arab Spring. Mark Urban is here to tell

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us how we got to this point. This is a war that has escalated

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and mutated time and again. Firstly, there has been geographic

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escalation, most people date the Syrian uprising start to a protest

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in the south in Deraa in March 2011. It started with graffiti and the

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pulling down of a statue of Bashar Assad's father, that resulted in

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arrests and torture, triggering more protests and the use of live

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fire by Government security people. The early hot spots were Deraa,

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Hama and certain parts of Homs. At that point and indeed for the first

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year of conflict, major centres such as Aleppo and Damascus

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remained largely untouched. Bit by bit the war has consumed one

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population centre after another. Homs, Aleppo and Damascus, all

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heavily damaged last year. Now, among the cities, it is only Tartus

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and Latakia, regime strongholds on the coast that remain largely

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intact. Along with this geographic spread, the level of violence has

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been climbing steady upwards too. Early demonstrations prompted

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gunfire from Assad troops. By the time the district of Homs was being

:05:49.:05:54.

attacked Earl ly -- early in 2012, artillery and tanks were being used

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freely. By the summer of 2012 the air force too was being used to

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bomb, often highly inaccurately. Towards the tailend of last year,

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scud missiles were fired at parts of Aleppo. The final escalation to

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chemical weapons is alleged by the western powers to have started at

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around that time too. But the insurgency has also upped the

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weaponry, starting out with shotguns or a few smuggled rifles,

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it went on to use more car bombs and captured Government heavy

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weapons. For the past year, large quantities of modern weaponry,

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including anti-tank missiles, anti- aircraft missiles and even

:06:33.:06:38.

artillery have been sent to the opposition by its Saudi and Qatari

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backers. The shipments have been estimated at $3 billion worth. As

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the intensity of violence has gone up, so has the human cost. During

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its early months the Syrian uprising claimed fewer than 500

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lives per month. For the past year, it has been running at more than

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5,000 lives per month. Giving a total of 93,000 deaths by June.

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With that intensifying and expanding violence has come a tide

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of refugees. During the early months of conflict much of that was

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happening within the borders of Syria. But this year, the numbers

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forced abroad have shot up and are now estimated at 1.7 million.

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Lebanon is the biggest recipient, with 578,000, Jordan runs second,

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with nearly half a million. Those who fled, but remain within Syria

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could number as high as 4. 25 million people. No-one is talking

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about sending British soldiers into Syria. The argument is about other

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forms of intervention. What might be appropriate if indeed any form

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of interventions is appropriate. It boils down to this, should we arm

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the rebels fighting President Assad. Tony Blair, the man who took us

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into Iraq and Afghanistan thinks it is a moral and practical duty. It

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is a sign of how little trust even many Conservative MPs have in the

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current Prime Minister that they are having a debate on Thursday to

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try to require him to get the consent of parliament before any

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weapons are sent. If they are sent. We will hear both

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sides of the argument tonight, first the former Foreign Secretary,

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Malcolm Rifkind, Sir Malcolm Rifkind, on why we should get

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involved. You have 90 seconds. question of weather we give help to

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the moderate, secular Syrian opposition is one of the most

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difficult decisions we will be asked to reach. There are good

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arguments on both sides of the question. Like most people I began

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when this war began hoping it would be a civil war, that the outside

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world would not have to intervene. I was against the Iraq War, I don't

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normally support intervention in other people's countries. But as we

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have seen, intervention has already been happening over the last two

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years. Russian and Iranian arms have flown into help the Assad

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regime. Hezbollah troops are fighting with the Assad regime

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against the Syrian people. So it is against that background that we now

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have to address that question. And it is not, as you have heard, about

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sending an army into Syria, it is also not a question of whether

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Britain, by itself, takes action. We are part of an international

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community. There are already over 100 countries, more than half the

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United Nations, that have recognised the Syrian opposition as

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the legitimate voice of the Syrian people. That includes most of the

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countries of the Arab League. So it is whether the international

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community should intervene. I believe that it is both ethically

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justified as well as politically desirable. Basically two reasons.

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First of all, the humanitarian reason. Already over 100,000 men,

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women and children have been killed. Mostly because of a brutal

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onslaught by the add Assad regime - - the Assad regime against his

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people. The more the war continues, the more likely we are to see not

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100,000, but 200,000 a year from now. Even if Assad takes Homs that

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will still be a very long war. The second reason is the war will only

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come to an end when both sides recognise that there has to be a

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political solution, that no side can win entirely on military

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grounds. And that will only happen, it is my final point. That will

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only happen when Assad recognises that he has to agree to a new

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transitional Government. At the moment he has no incentive to make

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any such concession. Let's hear why we shouldn't get involved, in the

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case made by another Conservative MP, the floor is your's? The civil

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war is causing tremendous suffering. Atrocities are being committed by

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both sides, there are no easy answers. But I would caution

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against us getting more involved in Syria. If humanitarian concerns are

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uppermost in everyone's minds, then it is difficult to see how throwing

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more weapons into this conflict will not result in more violence

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and more suffering. This is why the UN Secretary-General has said more

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weapons, more arms would not be helpful. We need to remember that

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there are extremist elements to both sides of this conflict. On the

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rebel site there are links with Al- Qaeda. The Government has not been

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able to answer the charge how would it track and trace weapons to make

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sure that they didn't fall into the wrong hands on the web side. We

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must remember it is a fast-moving situation on the ground. We should

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also remember that we have a poor track record at arming groups. We

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armed the mujahideen in the 1980s and Saddam Hussein when he attacked

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Iran, eventually some of those weapons were used against us.

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Intervention would have wider implications. What we mustn't

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forget is Syria is a proxy war being fought at different levels.

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We have Sunni versus Shia, we have Saudi Arabia versus Iran, and China

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versus Russia. Throwing more weapons into that conflict and fuel

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on to the fire could extend the conflict beyond Syria's borders.

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That could be a mistake of historic proportions. What should the west

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do, we could do more on the humanitarian effort. Why are

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refugee camps still short of basic amenties, and we could do much more

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on diplomatic efforts, why is it that the west is presently

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excluding Iran from any future peace talks. Most people accept

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that at the end of the day we need a diplomatic solution to this. It

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is the only viable solution in the long-term.

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Mauricio Castillo, what do you make -- what do you make of the argument

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that you don't make peace by adding more weapons? More webs are going

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in already, -- weapons are going in, they are not just going in from the

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Iranians, Hezbollah, Iraqi Shia militias and Russia, they are also

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going in as John mentioned to the extremist Salafist groups, they

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have their own supply of weapons. They have got weapons that were

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buried in Iraq that have come in. They have their own private donors

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in the gulf and the Saudis and the Qataris have been playing a game

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against each other, not really helping the opposition, and often

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arming the wrong people if you like. The Salafist groups. The only group

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not getting a consistent sustained source of weaponry is the Free

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Syrian Army under the leadership of Salim Idris, he's trying, and doing

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great work to organise and to become more relevent on the ground,

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to hold people, the local militias to human rights standards, if he

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was only more relevent on the ground, because he could give

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people weapons they needed then we could see a resolution to this

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reasonably quickly. We could start picking up the pieces. You think

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arming selected groups of rebels would actually make a resolution to

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this much quicker? I'm damaging my own argument. I agree it is

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impossible to make absolutely sure that other, that the extremist

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groups won't get, because militias will exchange weapons according to

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the battlefield. However, if you arm Mr Idris's arm, the moderates,

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the secularists, they will be able to tip the balance against

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extremists. You have also got family in Syria, what did you make

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of Malcolm Rifkind's argument? a human rights lawyer. I will never

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be pro-arming anybody, arms kill people. But when this is the choice

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against doing nothing, continuing to do nothing, nothing tangible

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that is making a difference on the ground. While an entire population

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is being slaughtered. While diplomatic channels have been

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exhausted, observous low, and nobody happening, the regime --

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obviously, nothing is happening and the ray genome has no intention of

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negotiating or doing anything. They are still using det fact toe

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immunity they are get -- de facto immunity that they are getting from

:15:31.:15:36.

the international community that nothing will happen. I think the

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pacifist tendencies are turning to support the dictator. You have run

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out of patience? It is not about patience, it is about an entire

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international community watching a population slaughtered. You have

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been covering the Syria war, since it is in dangerous and difficult

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situations, what will the consequences be to supplying arms

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to groups? Without arms you will have established in Assad's mind

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that he can win the war, arms are leverage. I don't think he can for

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all sorts of demographic reasons. Unless he really believes that the

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chance of military victory as alluded him, he will never go to

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the negotiating table. The only way you can tip that balance and get

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him to believe that is by arming the rebels. I believe it is a bad

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option, but it is the best of the bad options, and if you want a

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negotiated settlement, which we all agree, anyone with any sense will

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agree is the solution, you will only get that by arming the rebels.

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There is three people, direct experience, all of them making a

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different argument to your argument? Having said that, there

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was an admission that it would be impossible to track and trace these

:16:52.:16:56.

weapons, for a start. Weapons are an asset to be traded in the area.

:16:56.:17:01.

Very little, this is part of the world where very little escapes the

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bazzar. You would have the weapons moving around the battlefield that

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is very fluid. Who knows who would end up with them. Can I pick up the

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point about diplomatic channel, I would suggest they have not

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exhausted. When you have on the west an approach which says we're

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not going to allow 0 Iran, a key regional player and a key player

:17:26.:17:29.

within Syria, whatever we think of the country we won't allow them at

:17:29.:17:33.

the forth coming talks when they eventually take place. That doesn't

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send the signal that we have exhausted all diplomatic efforts.

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Hang on, I think Malcolm Rifkind was anxious to jump in before you?

:17:44.:17:47.

Jump! It is a particular way about the level of risk we accept that

:17:47.:17:52.

the weapons will end up in the wrong hand. You can't give 100%

:17:52.:17:55.

guarantees, think logically, the only people without weapons at the

:17:55.:17:59.

moment are the Free Syrian Army. The Jihadis already have them,

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Assad already has them, why should the Free Syrian Army, if it at long

:18:03.:18:06.

last gets weapons, why should it wish to hand them over to people

:18:06.:18:10.

who have already got them and who are their own sworn enemies in

:18:10.:18:14.

terms of the long-term future of Syria. Your turn to jump?Jumping

:18:14.:18:17.

on the diplomatic point, the reason we don't have a diplomatic solution

:18:17.:18:20.

is not because Iran isn't at the negotiating table of the the reason

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we don't have a diplomatic solution is because the rebels are not

:18:25.:18:30.

prepared to accept a situation where Assad stays in power and the

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Russians are not prepared to propose something in which Assad he

:18:35.:18:38.

was power. It is not an Iran problem. We have a fundamental

:18:38.:18:41.

problem. This whole discussion we have had, we could have had a

:18:41.:18:46.

flashback to Bosnia. A country in which the people were denied the

:18:46.:18:50.

ability to defend themselves against a brutal dictator, where

:18:50.:18:53.

the international community, including the United States,

:18:53.:18:58.

particularly Britain, Malcolm you may not agree with this, were

:18:58.:19:02.

complicit in denying the Bosnian Muslims the ability to defend

:19:02.:19:07.

themselves. And until there was an equalisation on the battlefield by

:19:07.:19:11.

the Croatian victory, the use of air power, there was no negotiated

:19:11.:19:15.

solution. If we go on down the path we are on we will be having this

:19:15.:19:18.

programme a year from now, two years from now and three years from

:19:18.:19:21.

now. You make a comparison with Bosnia, with one of the commanders

:19:21.:19:25.

who was in Bosnia, they are here, what do you make of the argument of

:19:25.:19:29.

arming the rebels? There is a parallel with Bosnia and the fact

:19:29.:19:35.

that for three years the Bosnian war dragged on and on with

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increasing violence and obskenity is something which I think rest --

:19:41.:19:47.

obscenity is something which rests in people's consciences, let alone

:19:47.:19:54.

memories. It was exemplfied by the massacre in veb nieceia. It was

:19:54.:20:01.

only -- Srebrenica, it was only then we were sable to turn the

:20:01.:20:05.

situation around. Bosnia is not Syria, you have to judge them both

:20:05.:20:11.

on mr its, not for the first time it is damned in you do and damned

:20:11.:20:16.

in you don't. But if the assumption is there can be no settlement or

:20:16.:20:20.

future for Syria, whilst Assad is still in power, then that pushes

:20:20.:20:30.
:20:30.:20:30.

you in the direction to take some risk. I accept giving weapons to

:20:30.:20:36.

the "rebels, which rebels and how do you gauorn -- "rebels", which

:20:36.:20:41.

rebels and how do you guarantee they won't do other things with the

:20:41.:20:44.

weapons. One aspect which is less emotive than weapons and where they

:20:44.:20:48.

might finish up is training the right people. We can perhaps do

:20:48.:20:54.

something there. But you wouldn't arm them? That, as I say, is a very

:20:54.:20:56.

difficult decision Jeremy. It is a difficult decision, I'm asking you

:20:56.:21:02.

to make it? I'm not a politician. You can have an opinion? You are a

:21:02.:21:08.

very experienced fella. If you pushed me into the corner, yes, I

:21:08.:21:14.

would look to arming the Free Syrian Army. What measures you can

:21:14.:21:18.

put in place to avoid those weapons going elsewhere is a much more

:21:18.:21:22.

difficult question. It is almost impossible isn't it? It is.Would

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that be legal? Not under international law would it be

:21:26.:21:30.

lawful to arm the rebels. Arming the rebels would be equivalent to

:21:30.:21:33.

using force in Syria. It would be no different to going into Syria,

:21:34.:21:38.

as a matter of law, it would be no difference than going into Syria

:21:38.:21:42.

with our own troops, it would be indirect use of force. That is

:21:42.:21:45.

prohibited by the United Nations charter. Have you told that to the

:21:45.:21:49.

Russians, have you told it to the Saudis, to the Iranians? There is a

:21:49.:21:52.

difference with the Russians, because this is what the Russians

:21:52.:21:57.

say, that they are arming the Government. The west is proposing

:21:57.:22:03.

to arm the rebels. The Saudis and the Qataris are arming the rebels

:22:03.:22:10.

and on General Mike Jackson's point, training is going on at the moment.

:22:10.:22:14.

Does this legality point worry you? While we had a European arms

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embargo, or if there was a United Nations arms embargo, that would

:22:19.:22:23.

clearly make it improper to provide arms. But the idea that because

:22:23.:22:27.

Assad, according to the Russians, is still the Government of Syria,

:22:27.:22:34.

that may be the Russian's view, but I made the point earlier, over 100

:22:34.:22:38.

countries have said they recognise the Syrian opposition as the Syrian

:22:38.:22:43.

poxmen for the people. Even the Arab -- spokesman for the people.

:22:43.:22:48.

Even the Arab League has expelled Assad and invited the Free Syrian

:22:48.:22:53.

Army to take the seat. Even the UK doesn't recognise the rebels as the

:22:53.:22:57.

Government, they recognise them as legitimate representives of the

:22:57.:23:01.

people. That is not the same and the UK and US accept that. That is

:23:01.:23:04.

not the same as being the Government. We make a mockery of

:23:04.:23:08.

legal distinctions if we say it is OK for the Russians and the

:23:08.:23:12.

Iranians to pour in arms and Hezbollah to fight with the Syrian

:23:12.:23:15.

Assad regime, but to give help to the secular democratic forces

:23:15.:23:19.

trying to reform the country, we can't possibly do that because of

:23:19.:23:29.
:23:29.:23:33.

some curious legal interpretation. It wouldn't be able to be tried?

:23:33.:23:36.

is not impossible but it wouldn't happen to take a case against the

:23:36.:23:39.

UK. What could happen, and this goes to the point of where the arms

:23:39.:23:43.

might go, is the UK, the US or any other country would bear

:23:43.:23:47.

responsibility, or could bear responsibility for what happened to

:23:47.:23:53.

those arms and the ways in which they are used, in effect, we would

:23:53.:23:58.

be responsible for what happened. There is a school of thought saying

:23:58.:24:02.

it is too late already? Intervention might have been more

:24:02.:24:05.

effective earlier on before the situation became so radicalised. It

:24:05.:24:09.

is a great pity that Assad didn't seem from the beginning to have any

:24:09.:24:12.

fear of intervention. Commander at NATO and so on said very clearly

:24:13.:24:17.

from the outset that they had had no desire to intervene. He has

:24:17.:24:21.

clearly been acting and testing the boundaries, he started off with

:24:21.:24:26.

lower levels of killing and as it became evident that direct

:24:26.:24:30.

intervention wasn't coming he has escalate and even to the point of

:24:30.:24:34.

inviting fighters from overseas which is a game-changer and crosses

:24:34.:24:37.

new boundaries. You have been there and you have heard what Mike

:24:37.:24:40.

Jackson has to say possibly about the wisdom of training forces. You

:24:40.:24:44.

have seen training going on haven't you? I haven't seen the training

:24:44.:24:48.

conducted by the Americans, in which the FSA have just asked the

:24:48.:24:53.

British to do in Jordan. They have asked British Special Forces to

:24:53.:24:56.

train rebel Special Forces. There is a lot of training going on in

:24:56.:25:00.

the north among the rebels. On the argument of tracking and tracing

:25:00.:25:04.

weapons, we should get out of the mid-80s of the track and trace

:25:04.:25:09.

argument, we gave the wrong groups, the mujahideen the wrong weapons

:25:09.:25:13.

and look what happened with blowback. In this era now you can

:25:13.:25:17.

track and trace, not with 100% accuracy, but with a far greater

:25:17.:25:24.

degree of accuracy. You can enable and disable remotely shoulder-

:25:24.:25:26.

launched anti-aircraft missile systems, as well as tracking them.

:25:26.:25:35.

Of course there will be some leakage. But it is a world, small

:25:35.:25:38.

arms aren't the big sensitivity, it is an Israeli aircraft being shot

:25:38.:25:44.

down by a rebel, or one of our's or a terrorist group using anti-

:25:45.:25:47.

aircraft missiles. Anti-aircraft missiles are the big problem. They

:25:47.:25:52.

can be much more tightly controlled than they could have been 30 years

:25:52.:25:57.

ago. If these very, rather bigger weapons are traceable, what is the

:25:57.:26:02.

problem? Because I think even those who argue it is traceable cannot

:26:02.:26:05.

offer 100% guarantee. You simply can't. You throw these weapons into

:26:05.:26:09.

a conflict. It is fast-moving on the ground. The weapons themselves

:26:09.:26:13.

would become assets that could be traded. You know, as I said,

:26:13.:26:17.

nothing escapes the bizarre at the end of the day. We don't know where

:26:17.:26:20.

they would -- bazzar at the end of the day. We don't know where they

:26:20.:26:25.

would end up with the best of intentions. Are we living in the

:26:25.:26:29.

21st century or the 19th century. The biggest mistake is fighting

:26:29.:26:32.

today's war learning the wrong lessons from yesterday's war. While

:26:32.:26:36.

we learn from the Balkans and Sierra Leone and all those

:26:36.:26:41.

particular places, today's wars are not won on the battlefield. They

:26:41.:26:45.

are taking place digitally, they are taking place in the hearts and

:26:45.:26:49.

mind of the people and refugees, on many, many fronts. Sure you can get

:26:49.:26:52.

a temporary military ascendancy on the ground, but this will not bring

:26:52.:26:56.

the war to an end. The idea that by having the balance of a conflict on

:26:56.:27:01.

the ground you can force these people to the negotiating table is

:27:01.:27:04.

rubbish. It might have been true in the last century, but the way the

:27:04.:27:09.

mood is in the Middle East and the gulf and around the world is isn't

:27:09.:27:13.

like that. Let's explore some options, arming the rebels isn't

:27:13.:27:18.

the only thing on the table for those who believe saving minds in

:27:18.:27:22.

Syria demand we get involved. Here is a reminder of what they might be.

:27:22.:27:30.

The first, favoured by Tony Blair, John McCain and others is it a no-

:27:30.:27:36.

fly zone. This could see coalition forces in Turkey or Jordan used to

:27:36.:27:40.

stop Syrian air power from operating in specific areas. Those

:27:40.:27:45.

areas could form safe zones for the rebel forces or allow international

:27:45.:27:49.

groups to set up humanitarian corridors for aid deliveries.

:27:49.:27:53.

Ultimately you could extend no-fly to the whole country. The second

:27:53.:27:57.

option could be strategic air strikes, which would involve

:27:57.:28:01.

bombing key ray genome command centres and air defences to skilt -

:28:02.:28:05.

- regime command centres and air defences to tilt the balance of the

:28:05.:28:08.

conflict away from Government forces and give an advantage on the

:28:08.:28:13.

ground. The biggest headache for western and regional loaders would

:28:13.:28:17.

be securing Syria's chemical weapons stockpile if that had to

:28:17.:28:24.

happen. Experts are far from convinced it could happen at all,

:28:24.:28:28.

if it were to be attempted forces from several nations could be deed

:28:28.:28:32.

employed. This is a nightmare scenario. The striking thing is how

:28:32.:28:36.

reluctant the Pentagon top brass, or that in Whitehall, are to mount

:28:36.:28:44.

any of these operations. Eddie Izzard, you are just back as

:28:44.:28:48.

a UNICEF ambassador from some of the refugee camps. How urgent is

:28:48.:28:54.

the need for had you tantarian intervention? I think it is very --

:28:54.:28:57.

humanitarian intervention? I think it is very urgent. The arguments

:28:57.:29:00.

and discussion here it is a really difficult question to get this

:29:00.:29:03.

sorted. There are kids who have just lost homes and schooling, lost

:29:03.:29:08.

their lives and loved ones as well, coming up to 100,000 people who

:29:08.:29:14.

have died now. I was up in the north of Iraq and the refugee camp.

:29:14.:29:18.

The temperatures are mid-40s, all day it is 40 degrees, that is a

:29:18.:29:23.

hellish temperature to live in. The kids are having lost their lives,

:29:23.:29:27.

we need another �200 million, that is what UNICEF need. I'm

:29:27.:29:32.

encouraging people to go to the website and dedoate if they can.

:29:32.:29:37.

This other question -- donate if they can. The other questions rage,

:29:37.:29:41.

but the humanitarian situation, people going over different borders.

:29:41.:29:47.

Describe to us the feeling in the camps about what the rest of the

:29:47.:29:53.

world might do? They, I think on the ground they want them to arm

:29:54.:29:56.

the rebels. That's my interpretation of the feeling. A

:29:56.:30:02.

lot of these people have come out and they want, and it wasn't the

:30:02.:30:06.

more religious parts, and it is my interpretation of it, not a UNICEF

:30:06.:30:13.

position on it. I felt they said can we give help to these people to

:30:13.:30:17.

again arm them against the Assad regime. That is my feeling and they

:30:17.:30:21.

weren't saying it specifically, that is how I felt. Malloch Brown,

:30:21.:30:26.

you were nodding? I think it is a dilemma that ultimately we will

:30:26.:30:35.

have to arm the webs rebels, it is literally a -- the rebels. It is

:30:35.:30:40.

literally defending those who are refugees. In arriving in a solution

:30:40.:30:45.

in the negotiating peace settlement we have all talked about, more arms

:30:45.:30:48.

is counter-productive. You can't get away from that. Do you favour

:30:48.:30:53.

any other ideas of interveings? me say what is happening next door

:30:53.:30:58.

in Egypt is an important reminder that whether it is Syria, Egypt or

:30:58.:31:03.

any other country in the region, only a Government that represents a

:31:03.:31:08.

broad group of minorities and religions and ethnic groups can

:31:08.:31:13.

possibly govern in a way that enjoys broad consent and is able to

:31:13.:31:21.

establish an inclusive human rights environment. You will never get

:31:21.:31:26.

there through the barrel of the gun. It becomes less and less possible

:31:26.:31:29.

every day Assad stays in power. For two-and-a-half years we have said

:31:29.:31:33.

if we get involved and help the vast majority of the Syrian people

:31:33.:31:37.

and give them what they are asking for and help finish the thing

:31:37.:31:41.

itself it will get wore. Over a quarter of Syrians are refugees

:31:41.:31:49.

outside or dismazeed inside. The sectarian -- dis dispersed inside.

:31:49.:31:57.

The sectarian threat of Assad is happening. Lebanon is fatally

:31:57.:32:00.

destablised, Turkey is suffering knock-on effects. There are

:32:00.:32:05.

killings of Shia going on in Egypt as a result of the Syria situation.

:32:05.:32:09.

Spreading and becoming bigger and bigger and bigger because nobody is

:32:09.:32:12.

going in and giving weapons to the people on the ground who are asking

:32:12.:32:17.

for that. The vast majority of the people who could finish the things

:32:17.:32:21.

themselves. There is no happy ending now, it is far too late. We

:32:21.:32:24.

could begin to pick up the pieces and get people to their villages

:32:24.:32:30.

and reopen schools and hospitals. Can we explore more the other

:32:30.:32:34.

intervention possibilities, you have seen genocide in places like

:32:34.:32:40.

Darfur and Rwanda. People think back to the war in which Saddam

:32:40.:32:42.

Hussein turned his guns on the Kurds. The international commune

:32:42.:32:46.

toe said for a long time they can't do anything about this. Then they

:32:46.:32:50.

imposed a no-fly zone. Is anything like that justifyable in these

:32:50.:32:57.

sorts of circumstances? Yes, I think from menu we were presented

:32:57.:33:01.

by Mark Urban, the no-fly zone and being more imaginative in the

:33:01.:33:07.

provision of humanitarian aid, certainly it is on the cards. You

:33:07.:33:11.

know from your experienced many years a I worked with Sir Mike

:33:11.:33:15.

Jackson in the Balkans, we haven't even start doing humanitarian aid

:33:15.:33:19.

properly. The debate is so occupied by military intervention it sucks

:33:19.:33:27.

the oxygen out of political efforts and completely undermines the had

:33:27.:33:32.

you machinetarian effort. Can we arm the rebels and shove for

:33:32.:33:39.

weapons, at the same time saying here is food and neutral

:33:39.:33:46.

humanitarian assistance, it is an oxymore ran. Is the no-fly --

:33:46.:33:53.

Objection see more ran. Is the -- Is the no-fly zone

:33:53.:33:58.

something that could happen? don't think so. Obama is very

:33:58.:34:01.

quiet? There is a pattern following the last war, President Obama and

:34:01.:34:05.

the American people were traumatised by Iraq, by the

:34:05.:34:09.

failures, the mistakes and all the things said by many people on

:34:09.:34:13.

programmes like this, how horrible Iraq was. Has caused, in my opinion,

:34:13.:34:18.

an overreaction the they are looking at Syria through the eyes

:34:18.:34:23.

of the mistakes in Iraq. If the United States were responding as

:34:23.:34:29.

the United States did in the 1990, the United Nations has called this

:34:29.:34:35.

the worst humanitarian crisis in the history in terms of refugees.

:34:35.:34:38.

We forget. There there is no response in the west and the United

:34:38.:34:43.

States because Iraq has traumatised the west. If there were a no-fly

:34:43.:34:47.

zone in the beginning, if there was a real decision toen gauge in the

:34:47.:34:50.

beginning, I don't think we would have reached this point. We will be

:34:50.:34:54.

here the same point a year from now and two years from now unless we do

:34:54.:34:58.

something. We have heard you say why you don't believe in arming the

:34:58.:35:02.

rebels. What would be wrong with establishing a humanitarian

:35:02.:35:09.

corridor which British and other military forces assisted with?

:35:09.:35:13.

Acertain low think and agree with the gentleman previously that we

:35:13.:35:17.

need more on the humanitarian front. Eddie has been back from refugee

:35:17.:35:22.

camps and they are desoperately short of basic amenties, we talk

:35:22.:35:28.

about throwing arms in, why not turn the money into humanitarian

:35:28.:35:32.

relief. What about protecting people? For a no-fly zone you need

:35:32.:35:36.

a UN resolution for that. When you have Russians and Chinese at the

:35:36.:35:39.

table it will be hard to deliver in the air. What about trying? Of the

:35:39.:35:46.

you can try, but at the end of the day I'm' not convinced that more

:35:46.:35:50.

weaponry, more force, more intervention is the answer here. I

:35:50.:35:53.

think the vast majority of the people accept you need at the end

:35:53.:35:57.

of the day a diplomatic solution. Trying force some sort of stalemate

:35:57.:36:02.

on the grouped is very high risk and can only add to the violence.

:36:02.:36:07.

You are desperate to get in. there is one thing to learn from

:36:07.:36:13.

the Bosnian expeer kwhrns is don't call something a safe -- experience,

:36:13.:36:16.

is don't call something a safe haven unless you have the military

:36:16.:36:21.

support to back it up. It is complimentry, the logic of much of

:36:21.:36:26.

this discussion has been that firstly, Assad will not of himself

:36:26.:36:36.
:36:36.:36:38.

go for some form of settlement. He would see that as defoot. Unless he

:36:38.:36:42.

-- defeat. Unless he is himself defeated we are at an impasse. That

:36:42.:36:47.

takes you to doing more to assist the rebels. That seems to me to

:36:47.:36:57.
:36:57.:37:01.

flow through the whole of this debate. The logic would be logic if

:37:01.:37:07.

the rebels were a party with a coherent political agenda that

:37:07.:37:10.

enjoyed the support of the population, not just on the rebel

:37:10.:37:17.

side but elsewhere. And who had the leadership and the skills and all

:37:17.:37:22.

sorts of things. Some of the rebels committing as many atrocities and

:37:22.:37:28.

then an army as much as the Government would be terrible.

:37:28.:37:33.

is like Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Palestine and Israel are a modern

:37:33.:37:42.

invention, carved out of the ruin of the otterman empire. The war has

:37:42.:37:46.

implications beyond Syria. Already Lebanon has sent fighters there,

:37:46.:37:50.

and all neighbouring states shelter refugees. Britain promised �50

:37:50.:37:55.

million to Lebanon to help the country cope with the refugee

:37:55.:37:59.

inflation. A country half the size of Wales is expected to be

:38:00.:38:03.

sheltering over a million Syrians by the end of the year. As we have

:38:03.:38:08.

been discussing the shockwaves from Syria's civil war are being felt

:38:08.:38:15.

all across the region. The sectarian dynamics resonate in

:38:15.:38:18.

Lebanon after clashes between the communities. Hezbollah is based

:38:19.:38:22.

this, and has sent thousands of fighters to support the Assad

:38:22.:38:26.

regime. The rebel Lebanese Sunnis have been sending people across as

:38:27.:38:32.

well into the Syrian national army. Not surprisingly the tensions have

:38:32.:38:37.

triggered fighting inside Lebanon too. Tonight's car bomb, for

:38:37.:38:43.

example, religious tensions in Iraq are also being exacerbated.

:38:43.:38:47.

Sectarian violence is increasing with fighters and equipment moving

:38:47.:38:54.

across the porous border. Iran a critically important ally in the

:38:54.:38:57.

region for President Assad, they have supplied military advisers and

:38:57.:39:00.

there is evidence of Iranian- supplied weapons on the ground too.

:39:00.:39:03.

Then there is Turkey, of course, hundreds of thousands of Syrian

:39:03.:39:08.

refugees have gone there, and the Syrian conflict has heightened

:39:08.:39:13.

tensions amongst Kurds and Alawites within Turkey. The Prime Minister's

:39:13.:39:17.

support for President Assad's energise has been cited by many as

:39:17.:39:27.
:39:27.:39:27.

one reason for the recent protests against him. How po tensionly does

:39:27.:39:33.

it -- potentially does it destablise the whole region? It is

:39:33.:39:37.

increasingly destablising, Iraq we should be most worried about. We

:39:37.:39:42.

saw the death toll go over 1,000 in May, technically described as a

:39:42.:39:46.

civil war. Britain could do more to help protect Iraq and help Iraq

:39:46.:39:51.

protect its own borders. But for the reasons mentioned, Iraq still a

:39:51.:39:57.

toxic word in American and British milt kal discourse, it needs more

:39:57.:40:00.

attention -- political discourse. It need more attention. It begs the

:40:00.:40:05.

question of why is this our job? is about what will happen if we

:40:05.:40:10.

don't do anything about it. Assad will take Homs in the next few days

:40:10.:40:12.

and Aleppo. What he cannot do because he doesn't have the

:40:12.:40:18.

military might to do is reoccupy the whole of Syria. He needs

:40:18.:40:22.

Hezbollah and that shows how weak he is by himself. That will lead to

:40:22.:40:27.

empty zones of Syria where the Jihadis will nourish. They will

:40:27.:40:31.

flourish on both sides of the border of Syria and Iraq. That side

:40:31.:40:34.

of Iraq is also dangerous territory. If you think of the problems we

:40:34.:40:39.

have had in Yemen, Somalia, Male. We will see the creation of a

:40:39.:40:43.

similar problem right in the heart of Syria. Is this Britain's

:40:43.:40:47.

business? I don't think it is directly Britain's business, but it

:40:47.:40:50.

is Britain's as part of the international communities business.

:40:50.:40:54.

This is something that could blow up a whole region of vital

:40:54.:41:00.

strategic importance to us all. Draw us into massive humanitarian

:41:00.:41:05.

organisations. There are real CoS and we are right to be engaged W we

:41:05.:41:09.

have to come back to the score prop possession -- we have to come back

:41:09.:41:13.

to the core proposition here, how to get Syrians to live side-by-side

:41:13.:41:18.

together again. As we look at what has happened in the region, the

:41:18.:41:23.

focus of humanitarian and political processes, humanitarian, against

:41:23.:41:27.

political is the only way out of here. I was there in Bosnia too, it

:41:27.:41:31.

is a ghost in Raul of our lives, the solution to Bosnia is something

:41:31.:41:36.

we can't have this time around, American military no-fly and

:41:36.:41:45.

intervention. Plus, ultimately a willingness of communities to come

:41:45.:41:53.

together for a egg no, to get a peace agreement between communities.

:41:53.:42:00.

It any of our business? I share the view if you, if it is directly for

:42:00.:42:03.

the UK to unilateral low take action for whatever reason. No, we

:42:03.:42:08.

are not going to be able to do whatever may be decided as the

:42:08.:42:15.

single nation, far from it. We are part of the international community

:42:16.:42:18.

and we are a permanent member of the Security Council. We are

:42:19.:42:23.

assuming in all of this it is a collective effort? We can't

:42:23.:42:27.

disentangible ourselves and say it is nothing to do with us.

:42:27.:42:37.
:42:37.:42:46.

Circumstances are self-he have tent. What is it like there? There is

:42:46.:42:54.

help lose, and Sharia Law has been set up because of necessity rather

:42:54.:42:58.

than desire. People need aid, a big British aid package was announced

:42:58.:43:05.

and that is good, more needs to be done. We need managive ways to

:43:05.:43:09.

bring hope. -- imaginative ways to bring hope. When you do a

:43:09.:43:12.

competitive army, tomorrow it will be middle range missiles, will one

:43:13.:43:19.

side be sitting there waiting. point you miss is all these things,

:43:19.:43:22.

thermomissiles, air strikes, chemical weapons, are being used by

:43:22.:43:28.

the regime against the opposition. They are not both sides, against

:43:28.:43:38.
:43:38.:43:39.

the people. Then do something for the people. It is said the

:43:39.:43:43.

atrocities are the same on the both sides, Human Rights Watch and other

:43:43.:43:48.

groups say the vast majority of atrocities and deaths are from the

:43:48.:43:52.

regime. WeThey have an organised and systematic plan of torturing

:43:52.:43:56.

people to death and raping people on a mass level. I'm' trying to get

:43:56.:44:02.

some answers. What business is this of our's? I can't obviously speak

:44:02.:44:07.

for the British but I speak as an American and member of NATO and the

:44:07.:44:12.

west. I used to think that we considered it our business when

:44:12.:44:16.

four million people have been driven from their homes in a part

:44:16.:44:23.

of the world that is supposed to be important to us. Those four million

:44:23.:44:27.

people from the messages get are getting more and more angry, they

:44:27.:44:31.

will be an grow refugees, and they become dangerous people. We can't

:44:31.:44:36.

fix this with the barrel of a gun. But we will be deluding ourselves

:44:36.:44:41.

if we think that we can solve this problem without the leader of

:44:41.:44:46.

Bashar Assad, the roder of Syria, facing -- leader of Syria facing

:44:46.:44:50.

pressure. We know that is the only thing to work. All you would point

:44:50.:44:54.

out is the one country not mentioned, likely to implode we

:44:54.:44:59.

should all agree on is Jordan. That is being overwhelmed by refugees.

:44:59.:45:02.

This is the kingdom that Britain, the United States, we all used to

:45:02.:45:09.

care about that place and we should, at a minimum, be willing to help

:45:09.:45:16.

defend Jordan before it goes under. You have a quick word before the

:45:16.:45:20.

summing up. Only guarantee against the extremists are the democratic

:45:20.:45:23.

and secular Syrians being targeted by everybody now. If you do not

:45:23.:45:28.

give those a chance everything that we are worried about will only

:45:28.:45:32.

exacerbate. Do you think it is our business? I do, through the

:45:32.:45:35.

international community. We have to be heading towards a one world

:45:35.:45:39.

where we do have freedom for everyone. No-one ever thinks of

:45:39.:45:42.

this because it is too big a weight to think. We have to head in that

:45:42.:45:50.

direction, and every time we don't, when people lose hope it fuels them

:45:50.:45:56.

turning towards something more aggressive and terrorism for the

:45:56.:46:00.

future. The humanitarian situation is very rough we have a lost

:46:00.:46:04.

generation. Let's hear a final summing up from protagonists, I

:46:04.:46:10.

don't suppose either of you has changed your mind, I hope you are

:46:10.:46:14.

enlightened by what you have heard. Give us your final pitch? I think

:46:14.:46:18.

it is our business, but in this sense, we could do a lot more from

:46:18.:46:23.

a humanitarian point of view, a lot more. That has been brought out in

:46:23.:46:27.

the discussion. We could do a lot more diplomatically, I cited Iran

:46:27.:46:30.

of what we are doing wrong, there is more to push down the political

:46:30.:46:34.

solution, that is what it has to come down toe at the end of the day.

:46:34.:46:40.

We have to learn from history on this. There is a deficit of trust

:46:40.:46:42.

with regards to western interventions general loo. We went

:46:42.:46:48.

to war on a false premise to Iraq. When we were told the mission in

:46:48.:46:53.

Afghanistan would go from defeating Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. We were

:46:53.:46:57.

told we would be in and out without firing a shot. Western

:46:57.:47:01.

interventions have had a habit of having an embeding effect on

:47:01.:47:06.

regimes. That is why communism has survived longest in those countries

:47:06.:47:11.

where the west intervened. Whether it North Korea, Cuba or China.

:47:11.:47:16.

can all agree it should be more diplomatic and humanitarian effort,

:47:16.:47:22.

we can't show it the serious questions. Assad's tactic has been

:47:22.:47:26.

to try to force the world or his own people to recognise the Jihadi

:47:26.:47:30.

terrorists. We wants to exclude the secular, moderate forces, who

:47:30.:47:34.

actually have more support in Syria than anybody else. If there is

:47:34.:47:40.

going to be a negotiated settlement, which we are all agreed, it can

:47:40.:47:46.

only happen if Assad fols and recognises that he must go and

:47:46.:47:50.

negotiate and recognise that he can't win by military ens moo.

:47:50.:47:54.

Until the moderate forces are given the weapons they need to defend

:47:54.:47:59.

their own communities and to put pressure on Assad, the killing will

:47:59.:48:06.

continue, not just of fighters but men, women and children.

:48:06.:48:10.

That is all, tomorrow night we have a special report on how one of the

:48:10.:48:12.

most powerful and feared political organisations in Pakistan is run

:48:13.:48:22.
:48:23.:48:24.

from a suburb of London. Until then from a suburb of London. Until then

:48:24.:48:34.
:48:34.:48:57.

good night. A cloudy day and thicker cloud to the north-east,

:48:57.:49:00.

bright spells for the afternoon. The best of sunshine further south

:49:00.:49:04.

and west. Another hot and sunny day for part of Northern Ireland.

:49:04.:49:07.

South-west of Scotland still enjoying temperatures into the mid-

:49:07.:49:13.

20s, further north and east with some mist and low cloud, 14 degrees

:49:13.:49:18.

in Aberdeen. A much cooler day across the east coast of England.

:49:18.:49:22.

Moving further inland temperatures in the low 20s. A pleasant

:49:22.:49:26.

afternoon, breezy to the south-east corner but sunny spells in the

:49:26.:49:30.

afternoon. More cloud than we are used to, the best of the sunshine

:49:30.:49:34.

for south-west England, here our highest temperatures, we have the

:49:34.:49:39.

potential to reach 28/29 degrees somewhere. With the heat and a

:49:39.:49:43.

singering weather front it could give us enough moisture to trigger

:49:43.:49:46.

a few sharp showers across part of Wales for the afternoon. Wednesday

:49:46.:49:49.

and Thursday sees the high pressure building back in for the end of the

:49:49.:49:53.

week. So we will start to lose the cloud with brighter spells

:49:53.:49:59.

developing, temperatures recovery as well. In fact, overall 3.30,

:49:59.:50:02.

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