Browse content similar to 17/07/2013. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Tonight is the most ambitious transport plan for decades to build | :00:15. | :00:22. | |
a high speed rail link from London to the north of England running out | :00:22. | :00:25. | |
of steam. HS2 will redraw the economy of a nation, according to | :00:25. | :00:29. | |
the Department of Transport. Where are political and business figures | :00:29. | :00:34. | |
and a former Rail Minister going cold on the idea. It is going to be | :00:34. | :00:39. | |
with us for a very long time, do we really want to tell constituents | :00:39. | :00:42. | |
and tax-payers that we are spending �50 billion of their money on a | :00:42. | :00:47. | |
train line that really doesn't need to be built? His successor is here | :00:47. | :00:52. | |
to tell us why it is worth �43 billion of your money. Also tonight, | :00:52. | :00:57. | |
the promises we have made to an ageing society for mentions and | :00:57. | :01:02. | |
healthcare, could propel us into a future of chronic economic problems. | :01:02. | :01:05. | |
We will debate a gloomy forecast from the Office for Budget | :01:05. | :01:09. | |
Responsibility. As the politicians pack their suntan cream and head | :01:09. | :01:13. | |
for their no doubt well deserved holidays, Newsnight's political | :01:13. | :01:21. | |
panel are here to give an end of term report. | :01:21. | :01:27. | |
Summer in the city, Nile Rodgers on how to stay cool of five decades of | :01:27. | :01:36. | |
getting dirty and down there. cheerful tunes were about the | :01:36. | :01:41. | |
future we thought we would see, future we envisioned has never | :01:41. | :01:51. | |
:01:51. | :01:54. | ||
happened. Plans for one of the biggest leaps forward in British | :01:54. | :01:57. | |
transport history is in trouble today. Today the Government | :01:57. | :02:02. | |
launched its second consultation into the posts of high-speed 2. The | :02:02. | :02:08. | |
costs have risen to a whopping �43 billion. The likes of Alitair | :02:08. | :02:12. | |
Darling and Nigel Lawson, former Chancellors, are oply opposed. The | :02:12. | :02:18. | |
new consultation wants to know about what the CBI, enthusiastic | :02:18. | :02:22. | |
about the project, and Tom Harris think. But we have a report on the | :02:22. | :02:27. | |
growing chorus of people with business, transport expierence who | :02:27. | :02:35. | |
want the Government to think bin on HS2. There is one thing that is | :02:35. | :02:39. | |
already high-speed about HS2, that is the speed the Government is | :02:39. | :02:43. | |
pressing ahead with the plans, despite warnings to slow down. Lord | :02:43. | :02:48. | |
Mandelson, a one-time supporter now says it could prove an expensive | :02:48. | :02:50. | |
mistake. Former Labour Chancellor and Transport Secretary, Alitair | :02:50. | :02:53. | |
Darling, says it will suck money out of the budget that would be | :02:53. | :02:57. | |
better spent on other projects. Moon while Conservative former | :02:57. | :03:02. | |
Chancellor, Lord Lawson calls it "madness", Boris Johnson says the | :03:02. | :03:07. | |
cost will spiral to over �70 billion. Newsnight can reveal now | :03:07. | :03:13. | |
that the latest Doubting Thomas is called Tom, Tom Harris, Rail | :03:13. | :03:16. | |
Minister under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. My own party is | :03:16. | :03:21. | |
strongly in favour of it, I was until relatively recently. More and | :03:21. | :03:25. | |
more are listening to those who say it might not be have a great idea. | :03:25. | :03:28. | |
Austerity will be with us for a very long time, do we really want | :03:28. | :03:33. | |
to tell constituents and tax-payers that we are spending �50 billion of | :03:33. | :03:37. | |
their money on a train line that really doesn't need to be built and | :03:37. | :03:42. | |
that money could be spent in any number of areas far more | :03:42. | :03:46. | |
effectively? Some politicians have started reassessing their support | :03:46. | :03:50. | |
for HS2 since the Government announced it was increasing the | :03:50. | :03:54. | |
budget. The Transport Secretary says the bill is rising from �33 | :03:54. | :03:59. | |
billion to over �42 billion. Sow how did the senior civil servant | :03:59. | :04:02. | |
here at the Department for Transport explain these higher | :04:02. | :04:07. | |
costs? Well he said what we should remember is that the original | :04:07. | :04:11. | |
estimate wasn't really so much an estimate it was more a...what was | :04:11. | :04:21. | |
:04:21. | :04:22. | ||
the phrase he used?:...a High level desk-based exercise. Yes, a high- | :04:22. | :04:26. | |
level desk-based exercise. Which means what, perhaps Tom Harris | :04:26. | :04:32. | |
could finish in? The plans for HS2 have been written on the back of a | :04:32. | :04:37. | |
fag packet. The increase in costs, it came on top of a high-level | :04:37. | :04:41. | |
desk-based mauling of the HS2 business plan by the National Audit | :04:41. | :04:44. | |
Office. We will build a new network. The Government has been working on | :04:44. | :04:48. | |
a new version of the business plan, incorporating some of the changes | :04:48. | :04:51. | |
the National Audit Office wants to see. This won't be ready until the | :04:51. | :04:55. | |
autumn, we will just have to wait. It is just I'm not very good at | :04:55. | :05:00. | |
waiting, why can't we have a go, how hard can it be to update the | :05:00. | :05:04. | |
benefit cost ratio for a �40 billion infrastructure project. | :05:04. | :05:14. | |
:05:14. | :05:22. | ||
We have commissioned a high-level pack particular table-based | :05:22. | :05:26. | |
exercise from two transport economists, David Parish and Chris | :05:26. | :05:29. | |
Castles, together they wrote a peer-reviewed study of the HS2 | :05:29. | :05:34. | |
business case back in 2011. So we will leave Chris and David updating | :05:34. | :05:38. | |
their numbers. But first I think we should look at the changes that the | :05:38. | :05:40. | |
National Audit Office has asked the Government to make to see what sort | :05:40. | :05:44. | |
of thing they are going to be doing here. They are looking at the first | :05:44. | :05:48. | |
phase of the project and at three specific areas, updating the | :05:48. | :05:52. | |
forecast for how many people are likely to use HS2, the business | :05:53. | :05:57. | |
case at the moment uses an out of date higher demand forecast. | :05:57. | :06:00. | |
Updating the value of shorter journey times, at the moment the | :06:00. | :06:04. | |
business case assumes that no-one works on a train and any time saved | :06:04. | :06:07. | |
is used for productive work. And thirdly, including the recent | :06:07. | :06:13. | |
budget increase. OK, so you have had time to put in those changes, | :06:13. | :06:17. | |
what impact do you think the new numbers will make to the Government | :06:17. | :06:21. | |
as business case? What will it do to the benefit cost ratio? If you | :06:21. | :06:25. | |
take the reduced demand and the change of value of business time | :06:25. | :06:29. | |
and the higher costs the impact is devastating. The benefit cost ratio | :06:29. | :06:35. | |
comes down from 1.4 in the latest published Government report, in the | :06:35. | :06:43. | |
range to 0.5-0.6. So for every pound we spend we get 60p of | :06:43. | :06:48. | |
benefits back. Does it make it a good-value project? There are many | :06:48. | :06:53. | |
projects that offer ratios of four or five, including alternatives to | :06:53. | :06:57. | |
the HS2 that are proposed by the local authorities and also by the | :06:57. | :07:02. | |
Government's own consultants. that would suggest that HS2 isn't | :07:02. | :07:07. | |
value for money at all then? Not at all. You might think it is absurd | :07:07. | :07:12. | |
to downgrade the business case for HS2 by that much, but, there is | :07:12. | :07:16. | |
academic evidence to suggest this would only be par for the course. I | :07:16. | :07:20. | |
have come here to the Siad Business Scohool in Oxford to meet one | :07:20. | :07:28. | |
academic who has studied over 100 years of big infrastructure data. | :07:28. | :07:34. | |
This professor says on average big infrastructure projects cost 50% | :07:34. | :07:38. | |
more than planned and deliver half the cost benefits. The bad projects | :07:38. | :07:43. | |
are much worse than that. The Channel Tunnel was 80% over on | :07:43. | :07:46. | |
construction cost and 120% over on financing cost. They only made 20% | :07:47. | :07:50. | |
of the passengers that they forecast in the first year, so much | :07:50. | :07:55. | |
worse. Why is that, why do we get that double whammy of lower returns | :07:55. | :07:59. | |
and higher costs? This is something we have studied in detail here at | :07:59. | :08:03. | |
Oxford, we find two root causes. One is optimisim, people are | :08:04. | :08:07. | |
generally optimistic, and that includes planners, the other is | :08:07. | :08:11. | |
something we call strategic misrepresentation. We find actually | :08:11. | :08:17. | |
in some instances decision-makers, politicians, policy makers, will | :08:17. | :08:20. | |
deliberately underestimate the cost and overstatement the benefits and | :08:20. | :08:24. | |
revenues in order to get their projects started. If a project | :08:24. | :08:28. | |
looks good on paper it is easier to get approval for the project in | :08:28. | :08:33. | |
parliament or whoever is aproving the project. And you know the old | :08:33. | :08:37. | |
saying that it is easier to get forgiveness than permission. That | :08:37. | :08:44. | |
seems to be sometimes the approach used in getting projects started. | :08:44. | :08:47. | |
The final stop on the journey is to take some of the concerns to the | :08:47. | :08:54. | |
people who are supposedly going to be building High-speed 2, that is | :08:54. | :09:00. | |
HS2 Ltd, it sounds like a private sector company, there is a clue to | :09:00. | :09:08. | |
who owns it in the building they are situated in. It is a Government | :09:08. | :09:18. | |
:09:18. | :09:19. | ||
office, and HS2Ltd is a subsidey of a Government. I don't think you | :09:19. | :09:22. | |
should necessarily assume that the business case, the quantified | :09:22. | :09:26. | |
benefit cost ratio will go down. Beyond that, of course, it is not | :09:26. | :09:33. | |
just about the benefit cost ratio. First and foremost high-speed 2 is | :09:33. | :09:37. | |
about providing additional capacity. The existing railway is | :09:37. | :09:43. | |
increasingly full, Network Rail forecasts by 2020 the eastern | :09:43. | :09:47. | |
Network Rail will be full. There is an overriding argument for | :09:47. | :09:51. | |
providing capacity. Any competitive economy needs strong infrastructure. | :09:51. | :09:54. | |
Today we have one of the busiest networks in Europe. | :09:54. | :10:00. | |
This point is made in the HS2 promotional video, but the ANO says | :10:00. | :10:05. | |
the Government needs to do more work in explaining why HS2 is the | :10:05. | :10:08. | |
best solution. Are there other cheaper projects that might deliver | :10:08. | :10:10. | |
as much or more capacity. For those politicians and business leaders | :10:10. | :10:15. | |
who say we should pause and reconsider? There is an imperative | :10:15. | :10:18. | |
to keep driving this forward. I think the other thing I would say | :10:18. | :10:22. | |
about people who say we should pause, even the people who oppose | :10:22. | :10:26. | |
this route, it is much better we get on and do it. They don't want | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
continuing uncertainty. So there is a strong case. Can they get it | :10:29. | :10:33. | |
right rather than go on and do it? We have got it right. Plenty of | :10:33. | :10:38. | |
people don't think you have got it right? We haven't yet put out all | :10:38. | :10:43. | |
the further work, we will in the autumn. That will show it will | :10:43. | :10:48. | |
update the cost benefit ratio and present the wider case, which as | :10:48. | :10:52. | |
represented work over the past year or so, which will look at both the | :10:52. | :10:57. | |
capacity arguments and also the wider benefits and how HS2 can | :10:57. | :11:01. | |
support both the national economy and also importantly how it will | :11:01. | :11:06. | |
support the cities we connect. the political signals changing for | :11:06. | :11:09. | |
HS2, some don't believe that three- party consensus in favour of the | :11:10. | :11:14. | |
project will last much longer. There is something of of the grand | :11:14. | :11:17. | |
project about this, aing willcy for politicians. Politicians love a | :11:17. | :11:20. | |
legacy, we love building huge capital structures, that is not | :11:20. | :11:24. | |
good enough. There has to be a business case, it has to be worth | :11:24. | :11:29. | |
it. The Government began its consultation on the second phase of | :11:29. | :11:33. | |
HS2 today. The Transport Secretary was in Manchester making the case | :11:33. | :11:37. | |
in terms of jobs and apprenticeships. It is clear there | :11:37. | :11:43. | |
are still plenty of people he has yet to convince. The Rail Minister, | :11:43. | :11:48. | |
Simon Burns, came into the studio a little earlier. Why it that so many | :11:48. | :11:52. | |
people with transport or business or Government experience are now | :11:52. | :11:56. | |
running away from the HS2 project? I don't think that a lot of people | :11:56. | :12:00. | |
are. There is considerable support, particularly if you look in the | :12:00. | :12:05. | |
Midland, north of England amongst local authority leader, business | :12:05. | :12:09. | |
groups, including the local CBIs and chambers of commerce. | :12:10. | :12:16. | |
mentioned the CBI, the Director General of the CBI is one of them. | :12:16. | :12:20. | |
He says questions need answering, �43 billion could be put to better | :12:20. | :12:24. | |
use, and politicians have been dazzled by promises of speed. He | :12:24. | :12:29. | |
makes it sound like another Concorde. He did qualify the | :12:29. | :12:32. | |
comments and he said he was still enthusiastic about the project but | :12:32. | :12:36. | |
he wanted to ensure the costs of building the railway did not run | :12:36. | :12:40. | |
out of control. I have considerable sympathy and agreement with him on | :12:40. | :12:44. | |
that. When you have lot Lord Mandelson, Tom Harris and Boris | :12:44. | :12:47. | |
Johnson all agreeing that something is up here, Lord Lawson is another | :12:47. | :12:53. | |
one, maybe, maybe they are right? don't think they are, for a reason, | :12:53. | :12:56. | |
the critical thing is on the conventional railways we are | :12:57. | :13:01. | |
running out of capacity. Between 2020 and 2024 on the West Coast | :13:01. | :13:05. | |
Main Line, the major spine up the country towards Scotland we are | :13:05. | :13:10. | |
expecting the capacity to become full. We have got to provide extra | :13:10. | :13:12. | |
capacity. There could be cheaper ways of doing it? We have looked at | :13:12. | :13:17. | |
it and some people have said, thinking it was a cheaper way, that | :13:17. | :13:20. | |
we should just build another conventional line. The costs are | :13:20. | :13:26. | |
slightly less, but not that less, you lose all the benefits that | :13:26. | :13:29. | |
high-speed rail brings to this country. It is a project can he | :13:29. | :13:33. | |
can't afford not to do. Our major competitors are all engaging in | :13:33. | :13:37. | |
building or have high-speed railways. In that case does it not | :13:37. | :13:40. | |
matter about the cost, it is so important we have to do it any way? | :13:40. | :13:44. | |
I think it is important. But it has to be done within cost disciplines, | :13:45. | :13:52. | |
and that is why we have been so determined with robust governance, | :13:52. | :13:56. | |
robust economic plans to ensure that we keep to a very controlled | :13:56. | :14:00. | |
budget. You say that, but how much is too much, the budget has just | :14:00. | :14:05. | |
gone up another �8 billion to �43 billion, Boris Johnson saying it | :14:05. | :14:11. | |
could cost �70 billion. The people on your own side say it could be | :14:11. | :14:16. | |
�100 billion. Boris is Boris, you would expect people who are opposed | :14:16. | :14:19. | |
to the project to exaggerate the costs because they are making a | :14:19. | :14:23. | |
case and they are entitled to. much is too much? The fact is it is | :14:23. | :14:30. | |
what we are going to spend which is to quote the figure you quote, | :14:30. | :14:36. | |
�42.6 billion. Of that �14.4 billion is contingency, we are | :14:36. | :14:40. | |
aiming to stick to those rigid budgets. You know the history of | :14:40. | :14:42. | |
capital projects in this country has been exactly the opposite, that | :14:42. | :14:45. | |
Governments of all stripes have said we will stick to it and it | :14:45. | :14:51. | |
goes up and up and up? If you have discipline and you vigorously check | :14:51. | :14:55. | |
on the effectiveness and the efficiencies of the building | :14:55. | :15:00. | |
process you can cheap within budget and I will give you an example. | :15:00. | :15:06. | |
billion, that too much? I will give you the example, the Olympics, | :15:06. | :15:10. | |
everybody said that couldn't be built within the budget. They were | :15:10. | :15:12. | |
because there was rigorous discipline to ensure the cost | :15:12. | :15:16. | |
didn't go spiralling out of control. It did go up from the original | :15:16. | :15:20. | |
budget. Let as move on to part of the business case, this is also | :15:20. | :15:23. | |
questioned, the benefit cost ratio. We were told to put it in simple | :15:23. | :15:30. | |
terms that we get �2.60 back for every �1 we put into it. Now it is | :15:30. | :15:36. | |
revised down to �1.40, and it may be lower than that. We have people | :15:36. | :15:39. | |
saying 0.5, in other words we would lose half the money we put in. The | :15:39. | :15:42. | |
business case is very shaky? business case is now outdated | :15:42. | :15:47. | |
because of the time it was done. At that point if you take the whole | :15:47. | :15:55. | |
route, both phases, the BCR was between 1.4 and 2.5. This is the | :15:55. | :16:00. | |
benefit cost ratio, the amount of money we would expect to get back? | :16:00. | :16:04. | |
We are preparing at the moment an updated business case, available | :16:04. | :16:10. | |
later in the year. Philip Hammond said if the BCR went less than 1.5 | :16:10. | :16:14. | |
he would put it under close scrutiny. Some people say it is | :16:14. | :16:17. | |
certain to go less than 1.5. Where would you draw the line. Where | :16:17. | :16:20. | |
would you say we have to have more benefits otherwise we are not going | :16:20. | :16:26. | |
to proceed? What I would say is that with the extension of the | :16:26. | :16:31. | |
Jubilee Line, which everyone recognises has been a tremendous | :16:31. | :16:37. | |
benefit to travel in London. That BCR, I think, from memory was about | :16:37. | :16:41. | |
0.4%. To use that parallel of the Jubilee Line, would you be content | :16:41. | :16:45. | |
if the benefit cost ratio was 0.4 as it was with the Jubilee Line. In | :16:45. | :16:49. | |
other words we got 40p back for every pound we put in. Although | :16:49. | :16:53. | |
people would not be content, including Philip Hammond? I don't | :16:53. | :16:57. | |
accept that is what the BCR will be, it is certainly not at the moment | :16:57. | :17:05. | |
with HS2. We will wait until the publication of the next business | :17:05. | :17:09. | |
impact studio later this year. I don't accept it will be 0.4%. | :17:09. | :17:13. | |
there any figure on this that would make you give up this project? | :17:13. | :17:19. | |
is the overriding importance, as I said before, it is capacity, | :17:19. | :17:22. | |
helping solve the capacity problems on the conventional railway. The | :17:22. | :17:26. | |
job creation and the regeneration that will flow from it, | :17:26. | :17:29. | |
particularly in Birmingham and the Great Northern cities. Minister, | :17:30. | :17:39. | |
:17:40. | :17:40. | ||
thank you very much. In a moment. Hey, I'm Nile Rodgers and you are | :17:40. | :17:45. | |
watching Newsnight, your late night funk jam! We talk to the man behind | :17:45. | :17:55. | |
:17:55. | :17:56. | ||
Chic. Now in ancient Greece poor old Sisyphus was punished by the | :17:56. | :18:00. | |
gods, condemned to roll a massive rock to the top of the hill only to | :18:00. | :18:06. | |
watch it roll down again, to repeat that for all of history. The Office | :18:06. | :18:08. | |
of Budget Responsibility can't compete with the Gods, but if they | :18:08. | :18:11. | |
are right about the unsustainable public finances we are all | :18:11. | :18:14. | |
condemned like Sisyphus. In our case it could be years of austerity, | :18:14. | :18:18. | |
because of the ageing population and strained healthcare system will | :18:18. | :18:21. | |
still leave a massive hole in our finances, and more austerity to | :18:21. | :18:25. | |
come as we try once more to roll the rock to the top of the mountain. | :18:25. | :18:30. | |
Or is there a better way? Our political editor, Allegra Stratton | :18:30. | :18:32. | |
has spent the day with the bar charts. | :18:32. | :18:37. | |
We already know this clock of public debt races faster than some | :18:37. | :18:40. | |
would like, we have been old it add naus yum. This Government's pitch | :18:40. | :18:44. | |
is they are the ones trying to stop this clock, trying. In the next | :18:44. | :18:48. | |
five years the aim is to reduce Britain's debt. What about the | :18:48. | :18:52. | |
long-term? From an array of scary graphs, this is today's key one | :18:52. | :18:57. | |
from the Government's Office for Budget Responsibility. Towed is | :18:57. | :19:01. | |
their annual attempt at physical futurology. The recent debate has | :19:01. | :19:04. | |
been about these bars, the Government has successfully, you | :19:04. | :19:09. | |
can see, brought down the debt and the deficit, but after about 2020 | :19:09. | :19:12. | |
and that low point there things start to climb, that is because of | :19:12. | :19:16. | |
two new pressures. Firstly the traditional sources of revenue | :19:16. | :19:21. | |
begin to dry up, things like duties from tobacco and fuel. Also North | :19:21. | :19:25. | |
Sea oil is going down. But then there are fresh demands of the | :19:25. | :19:32. | |
state. We will be having more demands of the NHS, social care and | :19:32. | :19:35. | |
pensions. That is why that line climbs rather alarmingly. As soon | :19:35. | :19:39. | |
as we hit the 2020s we hit the cost of an ageing society, more money | :19:39. | :19:42. | |
needs to be found for the NHS, social care and pensions. What we | :19:42. | :19:45. | |
need to do then is have a big debate as a country about how we | :19:45. | :19:49. | |
pay for that. You can either do it by cutting services, charging | :19:49. | :19:53. | |
people for the services they use, or by putting up taxes. I actually | :19:53. | :19:57. | |
think that the fairest way of doing it is to raise taxes. But of course | :19:57. | :20:00. | |
we see from the political debate we are having about the NHS at the | :20:00. | :20:03. | |
moment it is very difficult to have a grown-up sensible conversation | :20:03. | :20:08. | |
about how we pay for these things. These two bars show how old our | :20:08. | :20:12. | |
society is right now. And then it is broken down by age in 2062. In | :20:12. | :20:17. | |
the future there are fewer people aged between 16-54, the big purple | :20:17. | :20:23. | |
band. But there are many more 65- year-olds, and even more aged over | :20:23. | :20:29. | |
85. Just with fewer working age people to support them. A toddler | :20:30. | :20:35. | |
uses a lot of healthcare, a lot of education, but clearly pays in | :20:35. | :20:38. | |
barely no income tax. When they graduate to working age of course | :20:39. | :20:42. | |
the amount of income tax they pay in will go up massively, but they | :20:42. | :20:46. | |
will actually be using relatively few public services in that time. | :20:46. | :20:51. | |
Then when they retire they will be using the NHS, social care and an | :20:51. | :20:56. | |
awful lot. But again it will be paying in not very much income tax. | :20:56. | :20:59. | |
The OBR is saying that an older population will be a financially | :20:59. | :21:04. | |
poorer one. And, decisions taken by this Government may have made it | :21:04. | :21:08. | |
even more so. The called pension triple look means pensions will go | :21:08. | :21:14. | |
up in line with the highest of inflation or earnings. That's more | :21:14. | :21:20. | |
expensive. The OBR also suggests trouble ahead if the Government is | :21:20. | :21:24. | |
successful in bringing down immigration. The yellow bar shows | :21:24. | :21:28. | |
if it does bring it down to almost nothing, the working age population | :21:28. | :21:32. | |
is much lower. The red bar shows with high immigration you end up | :21:32. | :21:37. | |
with a greater working population to support the elderly. The Office | :21:37. | :21:40. | |
for Budget Responsibility gives today's politicians a stark choice, | :21:41. | :21:46. | |
they either have to cut an extra �19 billion from public services on | :21:46. | :21:51. | |
top of everything we have already heard that will be cut, or they do | :21:51. | :21:55. | |
it more slowly and over many more decades, but they do have to make | :21:55. | :21:58. | |
that choice. The OBR says unless they do everything we have been | :21:58. | :22:04. | |
through in this decade from 2010- 2020 will have been for nothing. | :22:04. | :22:10. | |
The lesson is that George Osborne has got a long-term challenge. He | :22:10. | :22:14. | |
stands for higher pensions spending, protection for health spending, now | :22:14. | :22:22. | |
we hear no tax rises. The OBR tell us today that pensions, health are | :22:22. | :22:26. | |
going to drive the public finances and make them unsustainable for | :22:26. | :22:29. | |
decades to come and taxes will have to go up to record levels. He | :22:29. | :22:32. | |
commissioned this report but the report is a big challenge to him. | :22:32. | :22:36. | |
big challenge to the Chancellor but also to his successor, unless one | :22:36. | :22:40. | |
of them gets lucky in a piece of megatechnology invented on their | :22:40. | :22:47. | |
watch, bringing in fresh revenue for Britain. 50 years a very long | :22:47. | :22:52. | |
time in politics, even longer if you don't like bar charts. | :22:52. | :23:02. | |
We have an economic correspondent and Ann Pettifor. Long range | :23:02. | :23:05. | |
economic forecast is like long range weather forecast, do you | :23:05. | :23:13. | |
broadly accept the OBR is right on this? The man who runs the OBR is | :23:13. | :23:17. | |
an honourable and brilliant man, when you are making forecasts for | :23:17. | :23:20. | |
50 years the slight tiller assumption has massive effects. I | :23:20. | :23:24. | |
would like the OBR to focus on what is happening in the last five years | :23:24. | :23:28. | |
and what will happen in the next five years. Back in 2008 this | :23:28. | :23:33. | |
country's national debt was about �580 billion, we are now above a | :23:33. | :23:37. | |
trillion pound, by 2015 we are going to be at �1.6 trillion in our | :23:37. | :23:41. | |
national debt. So, yes there are parts of the public sector that are | :23:41. | :23:46. | |
suffering, nobody is denying that, but the macro picture is not one of | :23:46. | :23:50. | |
austerity. The macro picture is a situation where over five years our | :23:50. | :23:54. | |
national debt almost triples. This is the reality of the situation we | :23:54. | :23:58. | |
face. With what does that mean for interest rates? What does that mean | :23:58. | :24:02. | |
for tagsyaix going forward? There is not enough -- taxation going | :24:02. | :24:06. | |
forward? There is not enough discussion among the political | :24:06. | :24:08. | |
classes about the debt we are accumulating and have to service | :24:08. | :24:12. | |
day in day out. The core of the argument appears to be ageing | :24:12. | :24:15. | |
population with health problems we are all going to face in the future | :24:15. | :24:19. | |
and the pension rises that it is unsustainable because we are not | :24:19. | :24:23. | |
creating wealth fast enough to pay for it? This report is more about | :24:23. | :24:29. | |
policies that are operating now, mainly austerity. Than it is about | :24:29. | :24:33. | |
the future. It is using assumption based on austerity policies to talk | :24:33. | :24:38. | |
about the future. And one of your contributors said the choices are | :24:38. | :24:42. | |
to increase taxes or cut spending. There is a third choice, which is | :24:42. | :24:49. | |
to increase income. This report doesn't really deal with that. The | :24:49. | :24:53. | |
only way to increase income is to increase employment. The report | :24:53. | :24:57. | |
doesn't include in assumptions what will happen to employment over this | :24:57. | :25:01. | |
period. The fact is population will go up and baby-boomers like us will | :25:01. | :25:05. | |
rot and die and then the next generation will come up. This is | :25:05. | :25:09. | |
life. I don't know about the rotting and dying. Jo Hammer House | :25:09. | :25:12. | |
of Horror. One of the interesting things about this report is the | :25:12. | :25:16. | |
reflection on immigration. It says immigrants will make a more | :25:16. | :25:19. | |
positive contribution to the UK public finances than natives, and I | :25:19. | :25:22. | |
wonder if this raises the whole question of whether we should | :25:22. | :25:25. | |
change our immigration policy, because it would be of economic | :25:25. | :25:28. | |
benefit, which appears to be part of this report? Sure, I think the | :25:28. | :25:34. | |
OBR would have been braver than it has been, had it focused more on | :25:34. | :25:37. | |
the fiscal trajectory over the next three-to-four years. It has been | :25:37. | :25:41. | |
brave in grasping the nettle of immigration. I personally think and | :25:41. | :25:45. | |
the weight of economic evidence is behind me, that if you have more | :25:46. | :25:50. | |
immigration you bring in immigrants from the shadow world of the | :25:50. | :25:56. | |
untaxed economy, you bring them on to the books. If you celebrate | :25:56. | :25:58. | |
economic migrants rather than ostracising economic migrants, that | :25:58. | :26:02. | |
will do a lot to help this country grow its way out of the massive | :26:02. | :26:06. | |
fiscal hole that it is in. Of course that means you need better | :26:06. | :26:09. | |
infrastructure, it also means that politicians have to explain this to | :26:09. | :26:15. | |
the body of voters. None of that will happen if we persevere in the | :26:15. | :26:18. | |
current policies basically. Do you accept the point that immigrants, | :26:18. | :26:22. | |
in the words of the report, would be "good for the long-term economic | :26:22. | :26:26. | |
health of the country", because people coming in paying taxes | :26:26. | :26:29. | |
wooing dob the services other people won't do? We are very lucky, | :26:29. | :26:33. | |
in Italy the population is falling, here it is rising, we have a | :26:33. | :26:37. | |
population rising which will be able to work and create income to | :26:38. | :26:44. | |
finance the pensions of the future. Let's not beat about the bush here. | :26:44. | :26:50. | |
This is about laying the ground for cutting universal provision and in | :26:50. | :26:54. | |
particular attacking pension Do you think that is politically possible? | :26:54. | :26:58. | |
Of course I think what, creating jobs and generating income to pay | :26:58. | :27:02. | |
for pensions? It is entirely possible. It would make it immense | :27:02. | :27:05. | |
low important. Cutting pensions?I don't think it is politically | :27:05. | :27:09. | |
popular, but the logic of austerity is that you should go that way. | :27:09. | :27:13. | |
of the things that this does is talk about some of the things we | :27:13. | :27:16. | |
don't talk about in public debate, cutting pensions is one of them? | :27:16. | :27:19. | |
Ann is right, of course, the population is growing, it will need | :27:19. | :27:24. | |
to grow a lot faster if we are going to even hope to tackle our | :27:24. | :27:28. | |
fiscal problems. But of course while the population is rising, the | :27:28. | :27:32. | |
dependency ratio is really changing in a crushing way. At the moment | :27:32. | :27:38. | |
about four people are in work for every pensioner, by 2030, 2030, not | :27:38. | :27:43. | |
very long, it will be only two people in work for each pensioner. | :27:43. | :27:47. | |
Right now we have 2.5 million people unemployed, we have 1.5 | :27:47. | :27:51. | |
million people who have been unemployed for a short time, young, | :27:51. | :27:55. | |
educated, skilled who are hungry to work and we have policies which are | :27:55. | :28:00. | |
denying them work which would generate income tax revenues to pay | :28:00. | :28:05. | |
for these things. Not just now but into the future. The bank of | :28:05. | :28:11. | |
international settlements the Central Bankers' think-tank if you | :28:11. | :28:17. | |
like. Extremely robust organisation, they say by 2030 the UK's national | :28:17. | :28:21. | |
debt on current projections. And on current policy. Maybe you can let | :28:21. | :28:26. | |
me talk, you didn't let me last time I was on the show. Go on.The | :28:26. | :28:30. | |
bank of international assessment says by 2030, a short long-term | :28:30. | :28:36. | |
forecast will be our national debt will be about 300% of GDP, that's a | :28:36. | :28:39. | |
massive number unless we take drastic action. We have now got a | :28:39. | :28:42. | |
situation where politicians are just beginning to nibble at the | :28:42. | :28:47. | |
edges of pension reforms. But their pension reforms are saving by | :28:47. | :28:50. | |
nudging up the retirement age. These are scare stories. Hundreds | :28:50. | :28:55. | |
of millions over 30 years. When the problem is one of hundreds of | :28:55. | :28:57. | |
billions. They are economic scare stories in order to attack pensions | :28:57. | :29:01. | |
and in order to attack a whole generation that have paid for their | :29:01. | :29:05. | |
pensions. And in order to deprive an upcoming generation of work. | :29:05. | :29:10. | |
will have to leave it there. Thank you both very much. Now what to put | :29:10. | :29:13. | |
on cigarette packets? How much to charge for a can of beer, who is | :29:13. | :29:17. | |
responsible for shocking failures in the health service and the role | :29:18. | :29:23. | |
of lobyists and trade unions -- lobbyists and trade unions in | :29:23. | :29:29. | |
politics. Particularly Lynton Crosby, the's adviser. This is only | :29:29. | :29:33. | |
Wednesday. The politicians are off on hole day, although today's Prime | :29:33. | :29:37. | |
Minister's Questions suggests the mood is not exactly mellow. | :29:37. | :29:42. | |
reality that he cannot admit is against the advice of every major | :29:42. | :29:48. | |
public health organisation he has caved in to big tobacco, that is | :29:48. | :29:54. | |
the reality about this Prime Minister. And he knows it, it is | :29:54. | :29:57. | |
Andy Coulson all over again. He's a Prime Minister that doesn't think | :29:57. | :30:03. | |
the rules apply to him, dinners for donor, Andy Coulson and now big | :30:03. | :30:06. | |
tobacco in Downing Street, he always stands up for the wrong | :30:06. | :30:10. | |
people. The reason his leadership is in crisis is he can't talk about | :30:10. | :30:14. | |
the big issues. We are getting to the end of a political session, | :30:14. | :30:19. | |
when the deficit is down, unemployment is falling, crime is | :30:19. | :30:23. | |
down, welfare is capped, Abu Qatada is back in Jordan, every day this | :30:23. | :30:29. | |
country is getting stronger and every day he's getting weaker. | :30:29. | :30:34. | |
now all this comes in a week in which one poll suggested that the | :30:34. | :30:38. | |
Conservatives are now neck and neck with Labour, thanks to a | :30:38. | :30:44. | |
significant drop in supporting UKIP. Here to talk about the flavour of | :30:44. | :30:48. | |
politics to come is Newsnight's panel. Danny Finkelstein former | :30:48. | :30:51. | |
Conservative adviser and columnist. Sally Morgan who worked for Tony | :30:51. | :30:56. | |
Blair, and the Lib Dem peer, Lord Razzall was the past chair of the | :30:56. | :30:59. | |
party campaigns and communication committee. First of all on the NHS, | :30:59. | :31:04. | |
did anybody win that row? I think that when the salience of the NHS | :31:04. | :31:08. | |
rises the Conservative Party loses out until it changes the long-term | :31:08. | :31:12. | |
terms of trade on the NHS and it is a long way away from doing that. | :31:12. | :31:18. | |
You can't avoid talking about the NHS, but this kind of row in the | :31:18. | :31:20. | |
House of Commons will it change people's view of the Conservative | :31:20. | :31:26. | |
Party in the NHS? No. It is a bit like Ed Miliband raises the unions, | :31:26. | :31:29. | |
you raise the salience of something you lose. I'm not sure tactically | :31:29. | :31:33. | |
it is good, but strategically in the long run you have to try to win | :31:33. | :31:38. | |
the argument. The Conservatives are at least equal with Labour on the | :31:38. | :31:41. | |
NHS. Where do you stand on this, the Prime Minister had a bit of | :31:41. | :31:44. | |
wind in his sales he didn't have three months ago? People out there | :31:44. | :31:49. | |
will hate it. It will just sound like people playing politics and | :31:49. | :31:52. | |
scoring points around the NHS. I think it is really simple for | :31:52. | :31:54. | |
politicians, they have got to remember that ultimately they have | :31:55. | :31:59. | |
to deliver for patient and they have to keep completely focused on | :31:59. | :32:02. | |
quality. They have to be completely focused on greater transparency, | :32:02. | :32:06. | |
that allows patients to have power within the health service. And as | :32:06. | :32:09. | |
soon as they seem like they are moving away from that focus and | :32:09. | :32:12. | |
just getting into yaboo politics it is a failure. I think that the | :32:12. | :32:17. | |
Tories have put it on the agenda and behaving like that is a real | :32:17. | :32:21. | |
mistake. I thought the Prime Minister handled Staffs really well, | :32:21. | :32:24. | |
it is such a dramatic shift from that approach. I think it is a | :32:24. | :32:30. | |
little unsafe for them. Yaboo politics? The three of us are in | :32:30. | :32:36. | |
danger of agreeing on this. I'm very much reminded of political | :32:36. | :32:41. | |
history, go back to 1992, the war of Jennifer's ear, Labour tried to | :32:41. | :32:47. | |
race that and it didn't resonate. Even Duncan Smith trying to talk | :32:47. | :32:51. | |
about Rose Addis lying on a hospital bed. When politicians try | :32:52. | :32:56. | |
to score points off the NHS they lose. Let's move to lobbying, | :32:57. | :33:03. | |
Lynton Crosby and Unite. Did anyone make anything of that, or does it | :33:03. | :33:07. | |
raise suspicions in voters' minds, politics is for other people, they | :33:07. | :33:10. | |
are insiders? There has been a major player in the last few weeks | :33:10. | :33:14. | |
and that is Ed Miliband's move on the unions. It creates a strategic | :33:14. | :33:17. | |
opportunity for him and massive danger. The strategic opportunity | :33:17. | :33:21. | |
is obvious you can show as a strong leader and distance Labour from | :33:21. | :33:24. | |
unpopular vested interests. The danger is he gets half way into it | :33:24. | :33:28. | |
and can't finish the job. Then he gets tangled up in something that | :33:28. | :33:33. | |
he doesn't think is a U-turn but people watching think is a U-turn | :33:33. | :33:37. | |
and then he looks weak. It is a strategic opening for him but also | :33:37. | :33:44. | |
a big risk. I think that was a much bigger play than other issues about | :33:44. | :33:47. | |
lobbying. Len McCluskey saying in tomorrow's Guardian this is a | :33:47. | :33:52. | |
gamble that could bankrupt the party. That is what's at stake? | :33:52. | :33:56. | |
Bizarrely I think the money is less of an issue than in the end whether | :33:57. | :34:04. | |
or not Ed see it is through and wins. I'm afraid I agree with Danny. | :34:04. | :34:09. | |
It must be the warm weather? think the position is this is | :34:09. | :34:12. | |
potential lot biggest breakthrough for Ed, if he gets it right and | :34:12. | :34:17. | |
sees it through. If he doesn't it will be a really significant thing | :34:17. | :34:23. | |
for him. He might think he's seeing it through. Dam on grammar schools | :34:23. | :34:29. | |
got into a row, and then about technical differences about | :34:29. | :34:33. | |
Dominique Grieve was having grammar schools in Kent, and then there was | :34:33. | :34:36. | |
the U-turn and it collapsed. Ed Miliband has to be careful | :34:36. | :34:41. | |
technically or he will look like he U-turned. The Lynton Crosby thing, | :34:41. | :34:44. | |
does it raise the question that Liberal Democrats have been banging | :34:44. | :34:49. | |
on about years, public funding? This must get back on the agenda | :34:49. | :34:53. | |
the issue of how political parties are funded. I mean we have banged | :34:53. | :34:58. | |
on for ages and you might well say we would, wouldn't we, as a party. | :34:58. | :35:02. | |
But how Labour is in the pocket of the trade unions because they are | :35:03. | :35:07. | |
the paymasters, Tories are in the pockets of originally big business, | :35:07. | :35:14. | |
now the City. The issue now is, is it really now the opportunity to | :35:14. | :35:17. | |
reactivate the proposals for proper finance. It was the Tories who | :35:17. | :35:20. | |
pulled out, everybody thinks it was Labour that pulled out, it was the | :35:20. | :35:23. | |
Tories. These proposals are fine but they will bankrupt political | :35:23. | :35:29. | |
parties. If they have a �5,000 or �10,000 limit on donation, everyone | :35:29. | :35:34. | |
says we will have small donation, we all know really it is all about | :35:34. | :35:37. | |
bankrupting, the Liberal Democrats are bankrupt already, they are | :35:37. | :35:40. | |
perfectly happy with that. understand we are doing rather well, | :35:40. | :35:44. | |
I'm no longer treasurer, but we are doing well. Lynton Crosby, was it | :35:44. | :35:51. | |
unwise for him not to be forced to devest from business links. He | :35:51. | :35:55. | |
shook the party up? You couldn't have Lynton Crosby and have him do | :35:55. | :35:59. | |
that, he wouldn't do it on the terms. You had to choose to have | :35:59. | :36:02. | |
Lynton Crosby and background noise or no Lynton Crosby. They have | :36:02. | :36:05. | |
experienced Lynton Crosby before and they think he has integrity and | :36:06. | :36:10. | |
he certainly has ability. They have decided to take the risk. He will | :36:10. | :36:13. | |
get himself tangled up in stuff but it is below the radar. I don't | :36:13. | :36:16. | |
agree with that, I think the problem with Lynton Crosby and the | :36:16. | :36:19. | |
way it is positioned at the moment, it has a smell about it. That is | :36:19. | :36:24. | |
not to say he has been in lobbying David Cameron, but if you take a | :36:24. | :36:32. | |
position where we know Lynton Crosby says let's wipe away sue | :36:32. | :36:42. | |
perv Louis issues, and one of those being public health, -- superfluous, | :36:42. | :36:45. | |
and one being public health, I think that is somewhere the | :36:45. | :36:48. | |
Conservatives don't need to be. is a cut-through issue, I would | :36:49. | :36:53. | |
take a lot of persuading that people knew Lynton Crosby really | :36:53. | :36:56. | |
was very widely or they were paying a lot of attention to these | :36:56. | :36:58. | |
parliamentary debates. You are netting this off against the impact | :36:58. | :37:04. | |
that he can make for you. You couldn't get him any other way. | :37:04. | :37:06. | |
don't think Lynton Crosby will have significantly influenced the | :37:06. | :37:09. | |
decision that was taken, and there is far too many people involved in | :37:09. | :37:13. | |
it. What worries me about this is it brings the whole political | :37:13. | :37:19. | |
process into disrepute, it is just yet another peg to people adding to | :37:19. | :37:24. | |
all the other pegs that people have, that politics is corrupt, and | :37:24. | :37:27. | |
politics isn't corrupt in this country but people are beginning to | :37:27. | :37:30. | |
think they are. It is another thing. I don't think it will damage the | :37:30. | :37:34. | |
Tory Party, it will damage all of us. It creates a smell. Just in the | :37:34. | :37:40. | |
couple of minutes we have left, it is lovely weather, a great sporting | :37:40. | :37:44. | |
summer are people going in a cheery mood or is it the next two years | :37:44. | :37:49. | |
will be this, austerity election, the battlelines are obvious and | :37:49. | :37:53. | |
pretty miserable? I think it will be a very tough political period. I | :37:53. | :37:55. | |
think it is clear that the Conservatives are in a better | :37:56. | :38:00. | |
position than they were a month ago. It would be foolish not to accept | :38:00. | :38:03. | |
that. I think we are in a position where the general election is wide | :38:03. | :38:09. | |
open. I think you could end up with either major party having a | :38:09. | :38:12. | |
majority or hung parliament. Nobody could call that at the moment. I | :38:12. | :38:18. | |
think we are going to have a lot of hand-to-hand combat. The real issue | :38:18. | :38:21. | |
is whether the economy is showing green shoots and beginning to | :38:21. | :38:24. | |
recover. If it is both of the coalition parties will start to | :38:24. | :38:27. | |
improve their position in the opinion polls. If they are not we | :38:27. | :38:31. | |
have a problem. And the other very big issue is whether Ed Miliband | :38:31. | :38:34. | |
sees through the strategic opening he has made for himself or it | :38:34. | :38:39. | |
become as big trap for him. Not just in terms of bankrupting the | :38:39. | :38:41. | |
Labour Party, that is secondary, it is much more about weakness and | :38:41. | :38:46. | |
strength for his leadership. It is perfect Barbie weather, but | :38:46. | :38:52. | |
what is on the Newsnight summer playlist, drifting from our iPod | :38:52. | :38:58. | |
dock, one artist has been on heavy rotation for decades, five of them, | :38:58. | :39:04. | |
Nile Rodgers, hit maker to the stars, Bowie, Madonna and Daft Punk. | :39:04. | :39:09. | |
Nile Rodgers has let his music do his talking but in a by star store | :39:09. | :39:16. | |
in London he gave us tips on how to make hit records. He even had a go | :39:16. | :39:22. | |
at the notoriously tricky Newsnight song book. In a guitar store down | :39:23. | :39:26. | |
Tin Pan Alley in London's West End we are hanging with Nile Rodgers | :39:26. | :39:33. | |
and bringing our own joint toe the jam. (Newsnight theme tune played) | :39:33. | :39:38. | |
Hello, the Queen has entered the building! That is actually our | :39:38. | :39:44. | |
theme music, it sound regular gall. What happens when a world famous | :39:44. | :39:49. | |
hero meets the theme tune of an acclaimed late night...well show, | :39:49. | :39:59. | |
:39:59. | :40:00. | ||
basically. Let's go with that. The horn is it. It has been the summer | :40:00. | :40:06. | |
of bling. Liberace is big at the box-office again. It was a shiny | :40:06. | :40:11. | |
gold pot for Andy Murray, and at the festivals a storming turn by | :40:11. | :40:15. | |
Chic and Nile Rodgers. # We're lost in music | :40:15. | :40:18. | |
# Caught in a trap His career was born under a | :40:18. | :40:25. | |
glitterball. # We're lost in music | :40:25. | :40:30. | |
How does he come up with those tight, funky groofs, how tight are | :40:30. | :40:39. | |
they? They are tighter than Mickey Rourke's forehead. The process of | :40:39. | :40:43. | |
writing a song and a groove and hook is so much trial and error. | :40:43. | :40:46. | |
All of the composers I know and respect we never get it right the | :40:46. | :40:50. | |
first time around, it is only after you rewrite it and rewrite it and | :40:50. | :40:55. | |
then there is that moment usually that a-ha moment when you go, I got | :40:56. | :41:05. | |
:41:06. | :41:09. | ||
# Let's dance # Put on your red shoes | :41:09. | :41:15. | |
# And dance the blues Not bad, but how is Nile Rodgers's | :41:15. | :41:23. | |
audition going for the Newsnight house band. (Newsnight theme plays | :41:23. | :41:29. | |
) Is it in six-eight?It is mainly a piece for banjo! Anybody in the | :41:29. | :41:35. | |
store know what this tune is. his long career Nile Rodgers has | :41:35. | :41:40. | |
collaborateed with all sorts. Including the droids of Daft Punk | :41:40. | :41:44. | |
on this year's monster hit. But how are people getting along in America | :41:44. | :41:51. | |
today. In the aftermath of the fatal shooting of Trevyon Martin, a | :41:51. | :41:55. | |
black youngster in Florida, are things better or others than when | :41:55. | :42:00. | |
Rodgers was starting out? I think things are worse, I tell you why, | :42:00. | :42:05. | |
because gone is the sense of optimisim. A Trevyon Martin type of | :42:05. | :42:08. | |
case could have happened when I was a kid and the outcome would have | :42:08. | :42:13. | |
been the same. The difference is when I was younger we believed that | :42:13. | :42:17. | |
in 2013 things would be different. We were loaded with this optimisim | :42:17. | :42:21. | |
which is what fuelled, that was the turbo charger in our music, that is | :42:21. | :42:25. | |
what made us write these optimistic songs, we were writing about a | :42:25. | :42:31. | |
future that we thought we would see. In fact, the future that we | :42:31. | :42:36. | |
envisioned has never happened. It is pretty much the same. Despite a | :42:36. | :42:39. | |
black man in the White House? That is something you might not have | :42:39. | :42:42. | |
anticipated or maybe you did? certainly never anticipated that in | :42:42. | :42:48. | |
a million years. I think that is probably worse, in a strange way, | :42:48. | :42:52. | |
because of someone like that. Because I have never seen any | :42:53. | :42:59. | |
President as disrespected as I see President Obama being disrespected. | :42:59. | :43:03. | |
# I'm coming up # I want the world to know fl # Got | :43:03. | :43:08. | |
to let it show When Nile Rodgers wrote this song | :43:09. | :43:12. | |
for Diana Ross he was smuggling a gay anthem into the charts, a | :43:12. | :43:18. | |
harder thing to do 30 years ago than today perhaps. What's his view | :43:18. | :43:21. | |
of the gay marriage debate? almost don't understand how a | :43:21. | :43:26. | |
person could be against gay marriage. Why would what someone | :43:26. | :43:33. | |
else does bother you? You wouldn't even know. America is quite divided | :43:34. | :43:39. | |
because things that don't really affect their lives they believe has | :43:39. | :43:44. | |
some sort of moral effect or some sort of residual effect when it | :43:44. | :43:49. | |
doesn't really. 1-2ahhh | :43:49. | :43:55. | |
# Freak out # Le freak | :43:55. | :44:00. | |
Much admired by rappers and artists, he has been sampled more than John | :44:00. | :44:03. | |
Lewis curtains, he has come to terms with it, especially now they | :44:03. | :44:07. | |
are paying him. That is just a big part of the music business. I will | :44:07. | :44:11. | |
go work with producers and I will sit down with them and they will | :44:11. | :44:14. | |
play tonnes of my samples right there in front of me. They don't | :44:14. | :44:19. | |
think about it. I can't tell you. There is no self-respecting DJ that | :44:19. | :44:26. | |
doesn't have the beginning of Le Freak as part of their samples | :44:26. | :44:35. | |
library, every as an "ahhh". Newsnight theme) big finish? I'm in | :44:35. | :44:42. | |
the ball park but not there. If you had this cold in Hyde part, you | :44:42. | :44:49. | |
would have blown them away. You got to be kidding me. (plays the | :44:49. | :44:54. | |
Newsnight theme) that can't be it. You got it. Wonderful Nile Rodgers, | :44:54. | :45:04. | |
:45:04. | :45:04. | ||
Apology for the loss of subtitles for 60 seconds | :45:04. | :46:05. | |
let's have a look at tomorrow That's it for tonight, we are back | :46:05. | :46:15. | |
:46:15. | :46:44. | ||
Today more sunshine for Scotland and Northern Ireland and more heat. | :46:44. | :46:49. | |
Further south perhaps our hot spots just a bit further west. For | :46:49. | :46:54. | |
Northern Ireland some decent sunny spells, temperatures up into the | :46:54. | :46:58. | |
mid-20s, similar figures are forecast across southern and | :46:58. | :47:02. | |
eastern Scotland. Persistent low cloud and muark further north, the | :47:02. | :47:05. | |
isolated chance of a shower through eastern Scotland through the | :47:05. | :47:09. | |
afternoon into the evening. Sunny spells for northern England, | :47:09. | :47:12. | |
sunshine across the Midlands into East Anglia and the south-east of | :47:12. | :47:17. | |
England. Some of the temperatures, a couple of degrees down on the | :47:17. | :47:21. | |
last few days, an Eastleigh breeze, we can see the highs more intense | :47:21. | :47:25. | |
further west. A hotter day for Devon and Cornwall in South Wales, | :47:25. | :47:29. |