Browse content similar to 28/11/2013. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Tonight, Mark Carney pulls the plug on a scheme to help home buyers. | :00:09. | :00:15. | |
Does this portray his fear of the housing bubble to come? It would no | :00:16. | :00:19. | |
longer be appropriate or necessary to have our foot on the accelerator. | :00:20. | :00:24. | |
It's better to shift into neutral. That's why the changes are being | :00:25. | :00:28. | |
made. This man once said he wanted to be King of the world. Boris | :00:29. | :00:32. | |
Johnson tonight is accused of unpleasant elitism. | :00:33. | :00:37. | |
The policy that causes violence on the streets and prompted this. | :00:38. | :00:44. | |
# I'm so, so sorry # There's no easy way to say I'm | :00:45. | :00:49. | |
sorry... # But how But has the row over tuition | :00:50. | :00:59. | |
feels all been for nothing? And whatps -- what happens when you turn | :01:00. | :01:04. | |
your back on your parents' religion and have to tell them? She began to | :01:05. | :01:13. | |
cry. She said to me, "if it's between you and Allah, I choose | :01:14. | :01:21. | |
Allah. ". Good evening. | :01:22. | :01:24. | |
Is Mark Carney getting cold feet about the UK housing market? Today, | :01:25. | :01:28. | |
starkly, one of its mortgage lending schemes was shut down. But funding | :01:29. | :01:32. | |
for lending programme which allows people to borrow at low rates will | :01:33. | :01:37. | |
no longer be available for home buying after the end of January. The | :01:38. | :01:41. | |
Bank of England's concern was the unexpected speed at which house | :01:42. | :01:44. | |
prices were rising in many parts of Britain, time he suggested to take | :01:45. | :01:48. | |
his foot off the gas before the interest rates underpinning the | :01:49. | :01:51. | |
fragile economy would have to go up. Of course, there are other ways of | :01:52. | :01:55. | |
borrowing cheap money to buy a home. The Government flagship scheme, Help | :01:56. | :02:01. | |
To Buy, remains untouched, but sceptics may wonder for just how | :02:02. | :02:03. | |
long. Here is Andy Verity. | :02:04. | :02:12. | |
Who is setting the course for the housing market? As evidence mounts | :02:13. | :02:18. | |
of house prices getting even less affordable, the Treasury's answer | :02:19. | :02:21. | |
has been to use Government noun help buyers pay the prices, loosening | :02:22. | :02:25. | |
lending. But today, the Bank of England fired a shot across the | :02:26. | :02:30. | |
Treasury's bows. The risk to financial stability may | :02:31. | :02:34. | |
grow if there is further substantial rapid increases in house prices and | :02:35. | :02:39. | |
further build-up of household debt. These risks would be amplified if | :02:40. | :02:43. | |
unrate standards on mortgage lending were to weaken, as has been the case | :02:44. | :02:48. | |
in previous house price sickles. Until today the Governor had been | :02:49. | :02:52. | |
content to go along with the Treasury line that the risks of a | :02:53. | :02:57. | |
bubble were remote. But today, he presented mounting evidence that | :02:58. | :02:59. | |
there were significant risks in the housing market. On this chart, the | :03:00. | :03:03. | |
two bars on the right represent those whose mortgages are more than | :03:04. | :03:08. | |
four times their, in holding a third of the mortgage debt in the country. | :03:09. | :03:16. | |
On the right, is those who hold a fifth of mortgage debt. | :03:17. | :03:19. | |
The lending scheme is one of the reason we have the cheapest | :03:20. | :03:23. | |
mortgages offered. You can borrow ?500,000 and pay just ?621 a month. | :03:24. | :03:29. | |
No wonder some people now including the Bank of England are worried | :03:30. | :03:35. | |
about house prices taking off. 40% of outstanding mortgage debt is | :03:36. | :03:39. | |
held by people who have a debt equal to, or greater than four times their | :03:40. | :03:43. | |
income. Clearly this is Kuwait a high number and could cause concern | :03:44. | :03:46. | |
under higher interest rates. Funding for lending makes cheap | :03:47. | :03:52. | |
funds available at a quarter of a percent, a measure introduced last | :03:53. | :03:57. | |
year when the banking process threatened the recovery. The Bank of | :03:58. | :04:01. | |
England made it clear today it was withdrawing that for household | :04:02. | :04:06. | |
lending. In its stability report published today, the fear is less | :04:07. | :04:10. | |
double dip, more double bubble. It might be an increase, or a shift | :04:11. | :04:16. | |
really, in the Bank of England's thinking about what is more worth | :04:17. | :04:24. | |
worrying about maybe, which is that the problems with affordability, the | :04:25. | :04:31. | |
structure of the housing market, the prices one has to pay in Central | :04:32. | :04:38. | |
London et cetera. Actually, they have an impact on financial | :04:39. | :04:43. | |
stability. What they seem to be saying in the financial stability | :04:44. | :04:49. | |
report is that they have the policy tools to address that. Mark Carney | :04:50. | :04:54. | |
has reason not to want his tenure at the bank to be marred by a housing | :04:55. | :05:01. | |
bubble. The He was accused of that while in Canada with buyers | :05:02. | :05:12. | |
stretched. When a bank lend you the money for the mortgage, its biggest | :05:13. | :05:16. | |
cost isn't the interest to get hold of the funds but the capital it has | :05:17. | :05:19. | |
to set aside. The rules on that are set by the people in here, the Bank | :05:20. | :05:23. | |
of England, and what they've been saying today is, if they see the | :05:24. | :05:26. | |
housing market taking off, they could tighten the rules right now | :05:27. | :05:30. | |
for every ?100 of money they lend and have to set aside ?1. If the | :05:31. | :05:35. | |
Bank of England raised that to say ?2 it would double their costs and | :05:36. | :05:39. | |
mortgages would become more expensive. The Bank of England could | :05:40. | :05:44. | |
raise capital requirements on areas in the bank's balance sheet where | :05:45. | :05:49. | |
risks were beginning to rise. What that could mean in our view is that, | :05:50. | :05:56. | |
for example, higher loan to value mortgages, mortgages with higher | :05:57. | :06:02. | |
price to income ratios could attract higher capital requirements from the | :06:03. | :06:04. | |
Bank of England. Therefore higher costs? Yes. | :06:05. | :06:09. | |
The Treasury had one answer to rising house prices, loosening | :06:10. | :06:12. | |
lending to the most stretched with the help of taxpayers' money. The | :06:13. | :06:18. | |
bank hasn't stopped that, but it's warning -- its warning shots can't | :06:19. | :06:25. | |
be ignored. Don't expect mortgage rates to stay cheap. | :06:26. | :06:36. | |
Joining me now is Anatole and Mariana Mazucato. Was this the right | :06:37. | :06:40. | |
move? No, most economists believe that the Chancellor was making a big | :06:41. | :06:47. | |
mistake six months ago when he created the Help To Buy scheme. I | :06:48. | :06:51. | |
was one of the few who said at the time, this is the one thing the | :06:52. | :06:54. | |
Government's done that could actually turn the economy around. It | :06:55. | :06:59. | |
did turn the economy around. I think the reason why the UK economy has | :07:00. | :07:05. | |
been surprising most experts on the upside has been doing better than | :07:06. | :07:09. | |
any other European economy now for the first time in five years is the | :07:10. | :07:16. | |
revival of the housing market. So have they got this one wrong? No. | :07:17. | :07:20. | |
This is the kind of action the Bank of England will probably have to | :07:21. | :07:23. | |
take and should take two or three years from now once the economy's | :07:24. | :07:29. | |
recovered and once we are back to a normal economic situation with | :07:30. | :07:32. | |
employment back to 6% and so on, but you think it's too early to do it | :07:33. | :07:38. | |
and it does endanger the economy. Shot his goose a bit too soon, | :07:39. | :07:44. | |
Mariana Mazucato? He's right and wrong. He's right because he's | :07:45. | :07:47. | |
saying we don't want to fiddle with the economy by increasing the | :07:48. | :07:54. | |
interest rate by things overheating. He reintroduces the concept of | :07:55. | :08:00. | |
regulation, he wants to increase leverage ratios and we don't want to | :08:01. | :08:04. | |
lend to the speculative economy, so to give mortgages to consumer | :08:05. | :08:09. | |
selections won't be able to pay the mortgages back, especially once | :08:10. | :08:11. | |
rates do change. He's wrong in the sense that what we are trying to do, | :08:12. | :08:15. | |
and anyone thinking about growth, has had to rebalance the economy | :08:16. | :08:20. | |
away from a speculative finance toward product you have finance and | :08:21. | :08:24. | |
the emphasis that somehow it will happen by lending to SMEs whereby if | :08:25. | :08:28. | |
you look around the world and the UK, SMEs don't provide that much job | :08:29. | :08:33. | |
creation and innovation. So if there is a chance that growth from the | :08:34. | :08:36. | |
housing bubble will be better than what comes next which could be no | :08:37. | :08:42. | |
growth... The problem right now in the world, but definitely in the UK | :08:43. | :08:45. | |
is not the quantity of finance. There's plenty of finance out there. | :08:46. | :08:50. | |
There's not the right quality. . We need long-term, patient committed | :08:51. | :08:54. | |
finance that helps the types of companies that do want to invest in | :08:55. | :08:58. | |
the long-term areas to be able to do that. It's independent of size, | :08:59. | :09:01. | |
small and medium companies need that but none of the reforms are | :09:02. | :09:05. | |
increasing the long-term committed patient finance. He's still trying | :09:06. | :09:08. | |
to go through the banks, just like Vince Cable, with his business bank | :09:09. | :09:12. | |
was still going to go through the private banks. In the US, there's | :09:13. | :09:20. | |
direct lending to companies. Anatole Kaletsky you said you were at odds | :09:21. | :09:25. | |
with a lot of the comikists. All the home lending schemes have been | :09:26. | :09:29. | |
popular but economically slightly crazy? I don't think it has been | :09:30. | :09:36. | |
crazy. This is a case of a measure which was initiated for political | :09:37. | :09:42. | |
and, if you like, quite cynical and manipulative reasons. It was all | :09:43. | :09:45. | |
about winning the next election but it happened to be the right thing to | :09:46. | :09:48. | |
do for the economy at the time because, you know, at the beginning | :09:49. | :09:51. | |
of this year, the economy was in its deepest and longest slump in history | :09:52. | :09:56. | |
and there was no prospect of turning that around. But just explain to us, | :09:57. | :10:02. | |
where does the dynamic sit now between the Bank of England and the | :10:03. | :10:07. | |
Treasury? Who clamped down on this exactly? I think that's a great | :10:08. | :10:11. | |
question because my assumption of course as an outsider was that when | :10:12. | :10:16. | |
George Osborne introduced the Help To Buy programme, it was more or | :10:17. | :10:19. | |
less the same time he announced Mark Carney as the next Governor of the | :10:20. | :10:22. | |
Bank of England, so my assumption, I think most people's was that he must | :10:23. | :10:26. | |
have consulted the new Governor to ensure that he would be supportive | :10:27. | :10:32. | |
of this programme. That's exactly how things seemed for the last or | :10:33. | :10:36. | |
first three for four months with Mark Carney at the Bank of England. | :10:37. | :10:40. | |
But he suddenly and quite inexplicably seems to have changed | :10:41. | :10:43. | |
his position and, to me, I was thinking about this, this is like | :10:44. | :10:50. | |
Henry II and Thomas Beckett. If Mervyn King would have been in | :10:51. | :10:53. | |
charge, it would have been hard to Boro is deuce the Help To Buy | :10:54. | :10:56. | |
programme. Do you think Help To Buy is similarly under the microscope | :10:57. | :11:00. | |
now? I don't think that's where the problem is. Going back to the | :11:01. | :11:03. | |
previous question, the real schizophrenia is in the Treasury. I | :11:04. | :11:07. | |
do actually have quite a bit of faith in Carney. I think he has red | :11:08. | :11:16. | |
Cains. What drives the spirits, your gut instincts about what the future, | :11:17. | :11:21. | |
technological and market initiatives are, that doesn't change. He's | :11:22. | :11:26. | |
trying to think, how can we rebalance towards productive finance | :11:27. | :11:29. | |
to eventually increase that private business investment. I think the | :11:30. | :11:34. | |
problem with the trezly is -- Treasury is, there's no growth. This | :11:35. | :11:39. | |
is why the innovation and industrial policy, which is finally back to | :11:40. | :11:44. | |
business skills, is having little effect because it's not coherent | :11:45. | :11:48. | |
with the Treasury and what they are saying. | :11:49. | :11:52. | |
I think what you are missing, is that businesses are not going to | :11:53. | :11:56. | |
invest unless they see consumer demand. What generates animal | :11:57. | :12:00. | |
spirits is the knowledge that people out there are going to buy your | :12:01. | :12:05. | |
products and services. That is how a housing recovery was beginning and | :12:06. | :12:09. | |
is beginning to feed into the broader economy. | :12:10. | :12:16. | |
One thing canes didn't get right is that, he found that digging ditches | :12:17. | :12:22. | |
and building them up again would improve recovery. For all those | :12:23. | :12:28. | |
people to be able to get a mortgage from lending, you've got all this QE | :12:29. | :12:33. | |
floating in at the other end, the gap between those at the top and | :12:34. | :12:37. | |
those who are not able is even bigger. That's what this is doing, | :12:38. | :12:41. | |
isn't it? Yes. Inequality was both the cause and an effect of the | :12:42. | :12:45. | |
financial crisis. There are too many people taking out these not only bad | :12:46. | :12:49. | |
loans but good loans in the US that didn't have the income. Real incomes | :12:50. | :12:54. | |
have been stagnant for three years. The Help To Buy was beginning to | :12:55. | :12:57. | |
redress that and we are beginning to get to the point where it's | :12:58. | :13:00. | |
beginning to move out from London to the other parts of the country where | :13:01. | :13:04. | |
other houses are not expensive. The average house price in this country | :13:05. | :13:07. | |
is ?170,000. We have got to leave it there. Thank | :13:08. | :13:14. | |
you both very much indeed. I don't want to think about the | :13:15. | :13:17. | |
possibility of what would happen if they found out I'm just too scared | :13:18. | :13:22. | |
to tell them. There are a lot of Cornflakes | :13:23. | :13:31. | |
rattling around Boris's speech last night. When he got past the cereal | :13:32. | :13:35. | |
and delved down to the free toy at the bottom, the message was stark - | :13:36. | :13:39. | |
I don't believe, he told an audience for an annual Margaret Thatcher | :13:40. | :13:48. | |
lecture, that economic prosperity is possible. What if this is in fact | :13:49. | :13:53. | |
the Boris creed? What if his own brand of Boris Pops revolves around | :13:54. | :13:59. | |
the importance of board room greed and unfairness as a spur to economic | :14:00. | :14:05. | |
activity? Here is Zoe Conway. I've never seen anything like this | :14:06. | :14:09. | |
in all my life. When Boris Johnson was a child, he said he wanted to be | :14:10. | :14:14. | |
world King when he grew up. There were times during the Olympics that | :14:15. | :14:18. | |
childhood ambition didn't seem quite so far fetched. | :14:19. | :14:21. | |
These days, he's lowered his sights somewhat. Many in the Conservative | :14:22. | :14:26. | |
Party assume he wants to be their next leader. So what does this | :14:27. | :14:29. | |
pretender for the Tory throne actually believe? | :14:30. | :14:35. | |
Last night, he talked about ineasy quality in a lecture aimed at the | :14:36. | :14:43. | |
Tory right. I don't believe that economic equality is possible. | :14:44. | :14:48. | |
Indeed, some measure of in inequality is essential for the | :14:49. | :14:51. | |
spirit of envy in keeping up with the Joneses and so on that is a | :14:52. | :14:57. | |
valuable spur to economic activity. His comments are interesting because | :14:58. | :15:01. | |
they are such a contrast to David Cameron's public agonising about | :15:02. | :15:05. | |
inequality when he became lead leader. Three years ago, he said | :15:06. | :15:10. | |
less equal societies do worse. But Boris also argued for a move | :15:11. | :15:15. | |
away from the perceived excesses of 1980s Thatcherism. | :15:16. | :15:20. | |
I hope that the Gordon geckos of London are conspicuous not just for | :15:21. | :15:24. | |
their greed, and I accept the CPS view that greed is a valid Motivator | :15:25. | :15:29. | |
of economic progress. As for what they give and do for the rest of the | :15:30. | :15:31. | |
population. It's on education that Boris Johnson | :15:32. | :15:42. | |
is most clearly positioning himself to the right of David Cameron by | :15:43. | :15:46. | |
calling for the return of academic selection. He accuses his party of | :15:47. | :15:52. | |
hypocrisy on grammar schools. I remember once sitting in a meeting | :15:53. | :15:56. | |
at the Shadow Tory education team and listening with mounting | :15:57. | :16:00. | |
disbelief to a conversation where aall agreed it would be political | :16:01. | :16:03. | |
madness to try to bring back the grammar schools. Well, I happen Tono | :16:04. | :16:07. | |
that most of the people in that room were able to make use, as parents, | :16:08. | :16:13. | |
only some of the most viciously selected schools in the country -- | :16:14. | :16:17. | |
selective schools in the country. Being Mayor of London has not always | :16:18. | :16:21. | |
given Boris the chance to endear himself to the right of his party. | :16:22. | :16:24. | |
If anything he's had to tack left. He may argue for a smaller small | :16:25. | :16:30. | |
small estate, but he's spending millions on the transport | :16:31. | :16:32. | |
infrastructure. Then there are his calls for a higher living wage for | :16:33. | :16:33. | |
Londoners. When in China, Boris is keen to | :16:34. | :16:44. | |
emphasise house open London is to the rest of the world. But last | :16:45. | :16:49. | |
night, he expressed frustration at the Government's immigration policy. | :16:50. | :16:53. | |
It's time to sort out the immigration system so we end what is | :16:54. | :16:58. | |
currently a totally mad situation. At the moment we are claiming to | :16:59. | :17:02. | |
have capped immigration by having a 60% reduction in New Zealanders when | :17:03. | :17:08. | |
we can do nothing to stop the entire population of Transylvania, charming | :17:09. | :17:13. | |
though many of them, almost all of them doubtless are, from trying to | :17:14. | :17:22. | |
pitch camp at Marble Arch. Boris's direction of travel on | :17:23. | :17:26. | |
Europe can be confusing. He was once a hero to Euro-Sceptics, but | :17:27. | :17:30. | |
recently he said he's narrowly in favour of staying in the EU. Last | :17:31. | :17:36. | |
nights, he played it safe, attacking eurocrats, definitely the low | :17:37. | :17:42. | |
hanging fruit of Europe bashing. They make us pay our taxes for Greek | :17:43. | :17:46. | |
olive groves which possibly don't exist. Then I read the other day | :17:47. | :17:51. | |
they say that we can't dip - have you seen this - we can't dip our | :17:52. | :17:56. | |
bread in pots of olive oil in restaurants. We think we are | :17:57. | :18:00. | |
sophisticated enough to use olive oil and then say we can't. | :18:01. | :18:06. | |
Boris Johnson said he's more likely to be reincarnated as a baked bean, | :18:07. | :18:13. | |
or decapitated by a phrase bithan become Prime Minister. But with | :18:14. | :18:17. | |
scenes like this, doesn't that just sound like piffle -- by a frisbee. | :18:18. | :18:27. | |
The Government is asking the big six energy firms not to raise prices on | :18:28. | :18:30. | |
the basis of Government policies until the middle of 2015. What | :18:31. | :18:36. | |
should we make of this? Is it blatant conceptual drivery or | :18:37. | :18:41. | |
something much more subtle -- thievery. Danny fin Kell Stein of | :18:42. | :18:48. | |
the Times and Olly Grender join us, along with John McAteer nan. Welcome | :18:49. | :18:55. | |
to you all. -- McTiernan. This is just coming out, John, what we | :18:56. | :19:00. | |
understand from industry sources, that suppliers are being asked to | :19:01. | :19:05. | |
keep bills on hold. What do you make of that? Imitation is obviously the | :19:06. | :19:10. | |
form of flattery. What we are seeing at the moment is the Tory party in | :19:11. | :19:14. | |
two minds about what it wants to do. Does it want to go nasty or does it | :19:15. | :19:24. | |
want to go touchy feely and do payday loans and do this on | :19:25. | :19:29. | |
electricity prices? It's usteringly incoherent. You can go to the nasty | :19:30. | :19:42. | |
end of TfL -- end of the market or go the other way. All that stuff | :19:43. | :19:47. | |
about statism and national and 1983 manifestos after Ed Miliband... I | :19:48. | :19:50. | |
thought I was going to agree with you, then I didn't. There is a | :19:51. | :19:54. | |
dilemma and the Conservative Party is trying to weigh up what to do. | :19:55. | :19:57. | |
It's between whether to make the pure argument we have put the | :19:58. | :20:00. | |
economy right and run on growth, or try to do something about | :20:01. | :20:03. | |
cost-of-living in the short run which is very difficult. | :20:04. | :20:08. | |
That is actually a genuine dilemma. Clearly, they have decided they've | :20:09. | :20:14. | |
got to do something about the cost of heading up that argument in order | :20:15. | :20:20. | |
to allow them to make the argument about deficit, debt and Britain's on | :20:21. | :20:24. | |
the right track, don't turn back. I think it's hard because if you do | :20:25. | :20:29. | |
that, you look as though you are looking at some of the initiatives | :20:30. | :20:32. | |
by Labour. You have to do something about the cost-of-living because | :20:33. | :20:35. | |
that's a large component of the indicators that make a successful | :20:36. | :20:39. | |
election campaign. I think you are right about the dilemma, but I don't | :20:40. | :20:44. | |
think there is a situation where the Tories sit around going, do you | :20:45. | :20:47. | |
think we should be nasty or nice, it's absurd. We saw the same with | :20:48. | :20:53. | |
payday loans which was very much seemed like a Labour initiative, to | :20:54. | :20:57. | |
put a cap on prices there, and suddenly, ahead of the Autumn | :20:58. | :21:01. | |
Statement? I'm not particularly in favour of what was done, but I can | :21:02. | :21:05. | |
see the political logic of it again because it's about cost and it's | :21:06. | :21:11. | |
about cost-of-living and also about trying to remove the sort of | :21:12. | :21:15. | |
economic negatives that you might get, I think maybe cigarette | :21:16. | :21:18. | |
packaging comes in as well. You have got this dilemma all the time where | :21:19. | :21:22. | |
you are trying to cut off the negatives, if you possibly can, | :21:23. | :21:25. | |
without giving the impression that you are allowing the opposition to | :21:26. | :21:28. | |
set the agenda. That's a difficult balance. Also it's about | :21:29. | :21:33. | |
anticipating what is coming up. In both cases, on payday loans and on | :21:34. | :21:39. | |
cigarette packaging, you know, kind of David Cameron knew that in the | :21:40. | :21:43. | |
House of Lords he was going to get into significant trouble because | :21:44. | :21:47. | |
there were Lib Dems who were going to move on them, both of those | :21:48. | :21:53. | |
things. On the energy companies, first off, they've still got ?1 | :21:54. | :21:57. | |
billion that they haven't spent on all the eco measures. It's pretty | :21:58. | :22:02. | |
disgraceful that they are still sitting on them. They have plenty | :22:03. | :22:05. | |
they can spend. Strikes me as a reasonable thing to a ask of them, | :22:06. | :22:09. | |
but what my concern is, and I think this is where Lynton Crosby might be | :22:10. | :22:13. | |
right in his advice, which is not the nasty nice, you know, I kind of | :22:14. | :22:18. | |
sense what Danny is saying about that, but he is right when he tells | :22:19. | :22:22. | |
David Cameron, stop getting dragged on to agendas of the Labour Party | :22:23. | :22:26. | |
and of the media. I wonder where this leaves the green | :22:27. | :22:33. | |
taxes or "the green crap". Does that mean taxation for all the green | :22:34. | :22:38. | |
stuff does go? Elections are settled by not small political rows but by | :22:39. | :22:44. | |
very big economic forces. The Conservative Party's going to have | :22:45. | :22:47. | |
votes running for it at the next general election more strongly than | :22:48. | :22:51. | |
people anticipated in the six months before and after. The question is | :22:52. | :22:54. | |
whether it will have real disposable income so it has to choose to do | :22:55. | :23:00. | |
things about what will affect the disposable income. The danger is you | :23:01. | :23:07. | |
see the intellectual initiative, you make Labour look more economically | :23:08. | :23:13. | |
competent. What is interesting is that polls say that they love the | :23:14. | :23:17. | |
energy freeze strategy but they don't believe it which is really an | :23:18. | :23:21. | |
Ed Miliband problem fundamentally isn't it? Danny is right, there are | :23:22. | :23:26. | |
two frames. There is a frame of, you have taken the pain, and we have | :23:27. | :23:30. | |
restored the growth, now you are going to get some gain out of that. | :23:31. | :23:34. | |
Or there is the touchy feely Ed Miliband, I feel your pain and we | :23:35. | :23:37. | |
should do something about it. The difficulty for the Tories is, they | :23:38. | :23:42. | |
are not sure which frame they are purr suing and if you mix the frames | :23:43. | :23:48. | |
you muddle your message -- pursuing. The public's big doubt is, I like Ed | :23:49. | :23:52. | |
Miliband's policies, will he do them? It talks the point that he's | :23:53. | :23:57. | |
got to find a way of presenting and representing his promise on the | :23:58. | :24:01. | |
issues. He's aided by the fact the Government keep moving on to his | :24:02. | :24:04. | |
ground so he's allowed to talk about it. The Labour Party are failing at | :24:05. | :24:07. | |
the moment in prosecuting the case that they are determining and | :24:08. | :24:11. | |
dictating the agenda and they've got to get on to that space too. | :24:12. | :24:21. | |
That is down to the electorate. What I think most of all is important for | :24:22. | :24:25. | |
the Labour Party at the moment and what I found extraordinary about the | :24:26. | :24:28. | |
press release that came out today, it was by the way the press | :24:29. | :24:31. | |
officer's nightmare press release saying we are going to be and larger | :24:32. | :24:35. | |
and put some organisers on the ground. It was just the kind of | :24:36. | :24:41. | |
thing that you never do. It's not strategic. | :24:42. | :24:46. | |
ALL SPEAK AT ONCE The long-term plan. Bnchts but it's | :24:47. | :24:50. | |
the kind of show me don't tell me kind of classic mistake that both | :24:51. | :24:53. | |
the other political parties are making I think. If you are devising | :24:54. | :24:57. | |
a strategy and have to make this choice for the Conservative Party, I | :24:58. | :25:01. | |
think you would calculate that you're unlikely to succeed the | :25:02. | :25:07. | |
electric election initiative. I don't think people think of Ed | :25:08. | :25:12. | |
Miliband has a dynamic person. Even if they are wrong, that's not what | :25:13. | :25:15. | |
they think. Think in you are making that calculation, you think, I have | :25:16. | :25:18. | |
a big enough advantage to risk trying to do something about | :25:19. | :25:21. | |
cost-of-living in order to try to neutralise that as much as I can and | :25:22. | :25:27. | |
make people feel better. Presumably though there is a tipping point if | :25:28. | :25:31. | |
they like his policies enough, that happens, right? There is a problem | :25:32. | :25:34. | |
too in that David Cameron's no longer who they thought he was when | :25:35. | :25:37. | |
they voted for him. That's a difficulty for the Tories that they | :25:38. | :25:40. | |
have to deal with that he was going to be the man that saved the NHS, | :25:41. | :25:45. | |
and that's broken. He was, let sunshine have the day, and whatever | :25:46. | :25:49. | |
he said yesterday about immigration was not sunshine having the day. I | :25:50. | :25:57. | |
agree that people were never absolutely blown away at the next | :25:58. | :26:01. | |
general election by David Cameron. That's not why he didn't win. If you | :26:02. | :26:11. | |
are devising Conservative election strategy, obviously I think a | :26:12. | :26:14. | |
reasonable fixed point is that Ed Miliband has a lot of structural | :26:15. | :26:20. | |
advantages and Labour do, but Ed Miliband doesn't convince people | :26:21. | :26:23. | |
that much whether he should or not and therefore what you do is... | :26:24. | :26:29. | |
Before we carry on with that, Nick Clegg's line on this today was that | :26:30. | :26:35. | |
it was bold conservatism I guess you would call it. Is he missing the | :26:36. | :26:40. | |
point of Boris? No. I mean I think Boris is, as usual, all over the | :26:41. | :26:47. | |
place. So he's just impossible. It must be maddening for the | :26:48. | :26:50. | |
Conservatives, because one minute he's one thing, the next he's the | :26:51. | :26:58. | |
next thing. He said things about David Cameron and George Osborne? I | :26:59. | :27:03. | |
must be missing something. I do not understand the row concerning | :27:04. | :27:07. | |
observing the disparity in the population. Social mobility, the | :27:08. | :27:11. | |
issue with that is that people have different talents. He was talking | :27:12. | :27:14. | |
about if you are down there, you may end up having to stay there, you | :27:15. | :27:20. | |
know. Maybe he thinks that, but he did not say that. It sounds like he | :27:21. | :27:25. | |
said that. It was the language and tone of contempt for fellow human | :27:26. | :27:29. | |
beings which had a nasty tone. That's not a fair reading of his | :27:30. | :27:32. | |
speech. That's what people maybe hoped he said but it was not a fair | :27:33. | :27:35. | |
reading. Thank you all very much indeed. | :27:36. | :27:39. | |
If tuition fees were meant to solve a problem, making academia more | :27:40. | :27:42. | |
sustainable for the future, the latest reports suggest the project | :27:43. | :27:46. | |
might be failing. The National Audit Office believes more than ?5 billion | :27:47. | :27:51. | |
of public money paid out in student loans will be unaccounted for | :27:52. | :27:54. | |
because the Government doesn't know who owes it and whether it can pay | :27:55. | :28:04. | |
it back? Martin Williams is a part-time | :28:05. | :28:08. | |
teacher at a sixth form college in Southampton. He spent five years | :28:09. | :28:13. | |
studying fine art, graphics and photography but doesn't earn enough | :28:14. | :28:17. | |
to pay back his own student loan. I've actually probably paid nothing. | :28:18. | :28:21. | |
I probably haven't even dented the interest that's incurred from it | :28:22. | :28:24. | |
because I've not been in employment to take me over the threshold of the | :28:25. | :28:28. | |
minimum payment. Like the other teachers, he gives teenagers career | :28:29. | :28:32. | |
advice. Some ask whether student loans are effectively free money? | :28:33. | :28:38. | |
A lot of them ask me what have I had to pay back and I'm honest with them | :28:39. | :28:42. | |
and said I've not been in a position where I've had to pay anything back | :28:43. | :28:45. | |
because I've not earned enough yet. In that sense, it does come across | :28:46. | :28:51. | |
that it's cost me nothing to do, so I do advise them to make sure that | :28:52. | :28:55. | |
they are aware of the terms. I do tell them about the terms. | :28:56. | :29:04. | |
Britain needs more highly skilled workers the Government often say. By | :29:05. | :29:10. | |
2035, they expect nearly 500,00018-year-olds will start | :29:11. | :29:15. | |
university every autumn. As student numbers rise and | :29:16. | :29:19. | |
individual tuition fees rise, so the impact on the overall student loan | :29:20. | :29:25. | |
bill will be dramatic. Even now, ?46 billion of loan repayments are | :29:26. | :29:29. | |
outstanding and it's estimated that in 30 years' time, that'll more than | :29:30. | :29:36. | |
quadruple to ?200 billion. More people are failing to pay back | :29:37. | :29:39. | |
their loans. In 2010, it was estimated 28% of the | :29:40. | :29:45. | |
debts would have to be written off. That's risen to 35% this year. | :29:46. | :29:50. | |
The model that the Government used to model this system didn't take | :29:51. | :29:54. | |
into account the recession, lower graduate earnings, the fact that | :29:55. | :29:58. | |
women earn considerably less than men over their lifetime. From the | :29:59. | :30:02. | |
beginning, the system has been shaky and it's a numbers fiddle, it moves | :30:03. | :30:06. | |
the amount of money from the deficit to the debt. | :30:07. | :30:12. | |
Since the student loan scheme ban over 20 years ago, nearly 370,000 | :30:13. | :30:17. | |
students have disappeared from its records. They might be working | :30:18. | :30:21. | |
abroad, they might be unemployed here with the National Audit Office | :30:22. | :30:27. | |
estimating they owe about ?5 billion and the student loan company is not | :30:28. | :30:31. | |
doing enough to try to track them down. | :30:32. | :30:34. | |
I don't think it's surprising. I is have a friend who's led me to | :30:35. | :30:38. | |
believe that they are no longer in the country is so don't voluntarily | :30:39. | :30:42. | |
repay the loan. They have never outright said it to me but they have | :30:43. | :30:46. | |
implied they are no longer paying it. I don't think it's common. At | :30:47. | :30:51. | |
the end of the day, the incentive is there if HMRC aren't chasing people | :30:52. | :30:56. | |
once they go overseas. It's not surprising that people go abroad to | :30:57. | :31:00. | |
avoid paying the loan back. Neither the Government nor the student loan | :31:01. | :31:02. | |
company were available for interview. Though the loan company | :31:03. | :31:06. | |
gave us a statement saying it would use the findings and recommendations | :31:07. | :31:11. | |
from the report to help it further improve the way it secures the loan | :31:12. | :31:16. | |
repayments due from all its bow rowers, including those who were | :31:17. | :31:19. | |
overseas. Meanwhile, analysts say other | :31:20. | :31:25. | |
sectors are likely to suffer. The The impact of overspending on | :31:26. | :31:29. | |
loans is that you have to make up the short fall else where. The | :31:30. | :31:36. | |
department can't make any savings in the short-term so have to look to | :31:37. | :31:39. | |
other bits of the budget to make savings. That means further | :31:40. | :31:44. | |
education, research funding, widening participation funding are | :31:45. | :31:47. | |
all very vulnerable to cuts to try and offset the impact of | :31:48. | :31:51. | |
overspending on loans. In 2010, the Conservatives came up with a new | :31:52. | :31:57. | |
vision for higher education, raising tuition fees would secure its | :31:58. | :32:01. | |
Financial Future. Student loans would make university affordable for | :32:02. | :32:04. | |
all. Reluctantly, the Liberal Democrats | :32:05. | :32:08. | |
accepted it, but this report shows that picture is seriously flawed. | :32:09. | :32:17. | |
Newsnight has learned of a plan to destroy Syria's chemical weapons at | :32:18. | :32:21. | |
sea, using a US Navy auxiliary vessel. Industry sources told us the | :32:22. | :32:24. | |
plan will put a mobile destruction plant aboard that uses water to | :32:25. | :32:28. | |
dilute the chemicals to safer levels. Mark Urban has the story. | :32:29. | :32:35. | |
Talk us through this plan, Mark? We have been looking into the | :32:36. | :32:39. | |
detail. There's a very ambitious schedule been set for the agreement | :32:40. | :32:43. | |
to disarm Syria of the weapons and they are all supposed to be out of | :32:44. | :32:46. | |
the country by the end of this year, just a few weeks away. How is it | :32:47. | :32:50. | |
going to happen when all of the countries that have been canvassed | :32:51. | :32:55. | |
about being the place where these things would be destroyed have | :32:56. | :32:58. | |
refused to have it? It seems that the plan that's now come to the | :32:59. | :33:03. | |
front is to do it on board this US Navy auxiliary, a big ship, a roll | :33:04. | :33:10. | |
on roll off ship, the MV Cape Ray imported in Vicki Young ya, it will | :33:11. | :33:14. | |
have a special plant placed on it and that's what will happen. Before | :33:15. | :33:20. | |
we get to that point though, it will have to be moved -- Virginia. Most | :33:21. | :33:26. | |
are being concentrated in happen a dozen sites in Damascus. They'll be | :33:27. | :33:31. | |
moved up around the Lebanese border up to the north, then the east, to | :33:32. | :33:38. | |
the ports of either Tartus and Lattakia. 200-plus contaunter-size | :33:39. | :33:43. | |
loads on the quayside will be collected then. There's still some | :33:44. | :33:49. | |
doubt about whether the Cape Ray will go into the ports, it's a US | :33:50. | :33:54. | |
Navy vessel. Others might have to shift it from the quayside to the | :33:55. | :33:59. | |
cape Ray. But once on board, the destructive process of diluting it | :34:00. | :34:02. | |
can commence. Well, talk us through that? Where | :34:03. | :34:06. | |
does it go? Does it end up in the sea? Well, it's a very important | :34:07. | :34:15. | |
question. There are still some unanswered aspects to that. Earlier | :34:16. | :34:22. | |
I spoke to a chemical weapons expert and asked if that was the end of it | :34:23. | :34:26. | |
once they are on board? It's not going to be the end of the problems | :34:27. | :34:30. | |
because it's going to be 30 tonnes of mustard gas and 600 tonnes of | :34:31. | :34:36. | |
toxic precursors that will be destroyed on the Cape Ray. It will | :34:37. | :34:42. | |
produce about seven million litres of toxic effluent which will need to | :34:43. | :34:46. | |
be gotten rid of somewhere. You can't take to it the sea, it will | :34:47. | :34:52. | |
have to be taken to a commercial facility. They have argue that that | :34:53. | :34:57. | |
effluent is none more toxic than other things in the ocean. You can | :34:58. | :35:01. | |
see the possibility that the ship could become like a plague vessel | :35:02. | :35:04. | |
that no-one will have. So how would we even be sure that they'd all | :35:05. | :35:12. | |
gone? Well, the organisation that's carrying it out, the | :35:13. | :35:15. | |
Netherlands-based organisation, that's about to get the Nobel Prize | :35:16. | :35:22. | |
feel confident that their inventory has been successfully compiled and | :35:23. | :35:26. | |
that they can remove it. There are many rumours persisting that some | :35:27. | :35:30. | |
small quantities may have slipped through their fingers, including | :35:31. | :35:34. | |
with rebel groups. Mark Urban, thank you very much. | :35:35. | :35:40. | |
What happens when you choose to turn your back on your parents' religion, | :35:41. | :35:44. | |
particularly when they're people who hold their faith dear? We often | :35:45. | :35:48. | |
focus on those converting, but what about those who leave? In extreme | :35:49. | :35:56. | |
cases, they are punished by families. Newsnight spoke to three | :35:57. | :36:00. | |
people from devout Islamic backgrounds who've lost their faith. | :36:01. | :36:14. | |
These pictures are the only pictures I have of my early childhood. They | :36:15. | :36:27. | |
were taken before my mother became observant and they remind me of a | :36:28. | :36:30. | |
happier time. When you have to lie as much as you | :36:31. | :36:45. | |
do, it's like when you are not a believer amongst the believers, it's | :36:46. | :36:50. | |
really just drains you, it drains you in every single way possible. | :36:51. | :37:06. | |
I felt isolation. I neat I was being rejected, demonised. I felt that my | :37:07. | :37:17. | |
thoughts weren't being respected and it was harder because I knew that I | :37:18. | :37:20. | |
would have problems at home. I just prayed, please don't let me | :37:21. | :37:39. | |
lose my faith. That's all I wanted. But it was sort of at that point as | :37:40. | :37:43. | |
well that I just did not feel the connection to God any more and I | :37:44. | :37:48. | |
felt like all my pleas were just going into empty space. | :37:49. | :37:53. | |
I knew how much Islam meant to her, that it was everything. So to... I | :37:54. | :38:00. | |
knew that it would be something, you know, grave in her opinion. | :38:01. | :38:06. | |
Something that would potentially change our relationship for ever. | :38:07. | :38:13. | |
I was wrong I was round about 15 years plus when I told them. And | :38:14. | :38:26. | |
they didn't receive that well. I got abuse from my mum. Swearing at me, | :38:27. | :38:34. | |
telling me that Allah would be angry with me and that I would bring a | :38:35. | :38:42. | |
curse upon my family. I remember her reaction to this day, you know. She | :38:43. | :38:44. | |
began to cry. It was upsetting because, you know, | :38:45. | :38:59. | |
being the oldest child, I was always a source of pride for my mum. She | :39:00. | :39:06. | |
looked at me. I think it really registered with her and she said to | :39:07. | :39:10. | |
me "Amal, if it's between you and Allah, I choose Allah". And that's | :39:11. | :39:17. | |
when I felt that the lines were clearly drawn, that, you know, I'd | :39:18. | :39:27. | |
crossed a point of no return. One of the uncles got in front of the car, | :39:28. | :39:32. | |
the other uncle who was at the back of the car. I was scared. One of the | :39:33. | :39:42. | |
uncles had been in and out of prison for fighting. I was terrified. It | :39:43. | :39:46. | |
was only half way through the journey I knew something was wrong. | :39:47. | :39:49. | |
It was only when I got to the airport that I found out that I was | :39:50. | :39:59. | |
due to a flight to Pakistan. I was threatened, either get on the flight | :40:00. | :40:02. | |
or he'd beat the hell out of me. Why did they want to take you back to | :40:03. | :40:07. | |
Pakistan? I suppose in their eyes, I was out of control. I don't want to | :40:08. | :40:11. | |
think about the possibility of what would happen if they found out. I'm | :40:12. | :40:14. | |
just too scared. I know I'd lose them. Especially | :40:15. | :40:30. | |
because all my mum cares about is that I'm a Muslim and then that's | :40:31. | :40:37. | |
the one thing that you've gone and said that you can't do for her. I | :40:38. | :40:42. | |
would consciously call home and ask to speak to her and she'd refuse to | :40:43. | :40:48. | |
speak to me. My sister would pick up the phone and I'd chat to her for a | :40:49. | :40:54. | |
while and say "can I spook to mum? " And shieed "no, mum doesn't want to | :40:55. | :41:09. | |
speak to you". I remember my mum actual actually... You know, I felt | :41:10. | :41:13. | |
awful about what I was putting my mum through. A prayer is where you | :41:14. | :41:24. | |
ascend to the heavens. You ascend to Allah. Then you will have | :41:25. | :41:28. | |
surrendered. Nobody should discriminate a person just because | :41:29. | :41:33. | |
they have left faith. Families are not for judging. We are not judges. | :41:34. | :41:39. | |
We are simple Searle vats of God. Those people who prejudice | :41:40. | :41:42. | |
individuals for leaving the faith. They have misunderstood. Islam is | :41:43. | :41:48. | |
about embracing even your enemy. Islam is about teaching those who | :41:49. | :41:51. | |
may not have learned the faith properly. Islam is about sharing the | :41:52. | :41:55. | |
goodness of the faith. It's not manifested if you are going to | :41:56. | :41:59. | |
outcast them, prejudice them, throw them out of your mosque and your | :42:00. | :42:02. | |
centre, your community, you would not speak to them. It's not a very | :42:03. | :42:06. | |
loving way of approaching the human being. Leaving your faith is a shock | :42:07. | :42:19. | |
for your immediate family. Sometimes people have a pressure, thinking | :42:20. | :42:23. | |
that once the pressure is exorcised, the person will think about it, | :42:24. | :42:28. | |
reconsider the matter, maybe come back to the faith. And by pressure, | :42:29. | :42:32. | |
do you mean? into the enemy, so I'm not just | :42:33. | :43:09. | |
going to risk and go into that battle for no reason. If we | :43:10. | :43:14. | |
understand Islam as a comprehensive way of life, which is, then of | :43:15. | :43:20. | |
course leaving Islam would change everything and, as I told you, it | :43:21. | :43:25. | |
includes a change in the political allegiance, the social life, so it's | :43:26. | :43:30. | |
treachery to Islam. If he has committed that, then in an Islamic | :43:31. | :43:36. | |
estate before an Islamic court, it's like the punishment of treason. It | :43:37. | :43:46. | |
is treason. That punishment is? As you know, it's a capital punishment. | :43:47. | :43:58. | |
I do feel sad slightly when I think about my family and I do wish things | :43:59. | :44:06. | |
were different. But I'm very happy in my life. | :44:07. | :44:13. | |
I don't know what the future holds for me yet. I don't know it. It's | :44:14. | :44:18. | |
just changed everything. You don't know how you are going to do | :44:19. | :44:22. | |
anything any more and everything you do is going to be completely on your | :44:23. | :44:33. | |
own. My parents had another baby boy when I left home. I never met him. I | :44:34. | :44:41. | |
want to go home and hug my family that I miss. | :44:42. | :44:49. | |
Voices of those who've lost or changed their faith and their | :44:50. | :44:54. | |
families. Lets's take you through tomorrow's papers before we go. | :44:55. | :45:01. | |
Financial Times has the lead story, Khan Khanny -- Carney ditches cheap | :45:02. | :45:06. | |
home loans. And there is the look at the debt restructure of Co-op Bank | :45:07. | :45:09. | |
which has sold almost its entire investment in the lenders since the | :45:10. | :45:14. | |
revelations of Paul Flowers emerged. The Times has a picture of Peaches | :45:15. | :45:21. | |
Geldof who Tweeted the names of women who let the lost prophet | :45:22. | :45:25. | |
singer abuse their babies. That's her Tweet. The Guardian, bank puts | :45:26. | :45:31. | |
brakes on amid fear of house price bubble and the Mail, half of | :45:32. | :45:34. | |
dementia patients failed by the NHS and that picture of Charles Saatchi | :45:35. | :45:38. | |
at court. That is all from us tonight. | :45:39. | :45:45. | |
As a special treat, a dubious one, we thought we'd bring you a casual | :45:46. | :45:48. | |
modest Newsnight first tonight. It's a live rocket launch from Cape | :45:49. | :45:55. | |
Canaveral. Unfortunate Liz though, the company behind Falcon 9 proved | :45:56. | :46:01. | |
as erratic at time keeping, as we are, but instead, here are some live | :46:02. | :46:08. | |
pictures of a stationary rocket at the bottom. Good night. | :46:09. | :46:44. | |
Hello. Quite a change for the weather on Friday. Bright and breezy | :46:45. | :46:50. | |
for many. Strong winds a feature across Scotland. | :46:51. | :46:52. |