Browse content similar to 23/01/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Good evening from Davos, if you throw a snowball here at the right | :00:10. | :00:17. | |
time of the day you can hit a plutocrat and one of the gorillas | :00:18. | :00:23. | |
protecting them. None of those who run the world are women. In this get | :00:24. | :00:29. | |
together the World Economic Forum thinks it sets the agenda about what | :00:30. | :00:33. | |
will happen to mere mortals in the 12 months ahead. We will hear from | :00:34. | :00:38. | |
the Governor of the Bank of England. Have you spoken to Ed Miliband since | :00:39. | :00:42. | |
you dissed his banking policy. Since the second part of the question | :00:43. | :00:48. | |
isn't true... You did! We will see figures about the state | :00:49. | :00:51. | |
of the world that give quite enough problems for its leaders to engage | :00:52. | :00:54. | |
with. We have a minor constellation of | :00:55. | :01:02. | |
famous, infamous figures to gnaw on that, to see whether or not anyone | :01:03. | :01:06. | |
in this non-environmentally friendly stance, an overheated conference | :01:07. | :01:11. | |
centre in an alpine ski resort, has had the chance to think of | :01:12. | :01:13. | |
solutions. We will ask Bill Gates, one of the | :01:14. | :01:19. | |
richest m in the world why the might of people in the developing world is | :01:20. | :01:21. | |
any concern of ours. I get so confused, it is like the | :01:22. | :01:41. | |
middle school. I was the chairman. Well now, the sheer weirdness of | :01:42. | :01:46. | |
this gathering takes some getting your head around, of course it is | :01:47. | :01:49. | |
good to talk, but to be here at all as a corporate partner you have to | :01:50. | :01:55. | |
be able to stump up about $70,000, and even as we speak many | :01:56. | :01:58. | |
organisations are spending hundreds of thousands more on | :01:59. | :02:01. | |
no-expense-spared parties across this town. The World Economic Forum | :02:02. | :02:05. | |
now invites charities and the like to take part. One of them, Oxfam, | :02:06. | :02:09. | |
came up with the astonishing fact that the total wealth of the poorest | :02:10. | :02:15. | |
3. 5 billion people in the world is equalled by the mere 85 of the | :02:16. | :02:19. | |
world's richest people. Believe it if you can. Events inside this | :02:20. | :02:24. | |
conference centre seem to have commandeered much of the world's | :02:25. | :02:26. | |
headlines. Who are these people and in whose interests do they speak in | :02:27. | :02:37. | |
# Picture a mountain top with snow From the outside it might be any | :02:38. | :02:42. | |
conference, a gathering of spark plug manufacturers, or laxative | :02:43. | :02:46. | |
makers! But among them are some of the most powerful and richest people | :02:47. | :02:48. | |
in the world. The people who determine what we earn, what we pay | :02:49. | :02:53. | |
for our mortgages and in some unfortunate places whether we live | :02:54. | :02:58. | |
or die. Most of those milling around aren't the directors of our destiny. | :02:59. | :03:03. | |
They are advisers and goers and guards -- gofferes and guards and | :03:04. | :03:08. | |
those who fancy where the action is. Hold it like a pair of binoculars... | :03:09. | :03:15. | |
Among them are a handful of ernest good folk trying to open the eyes of | :03:16. | :03:20. | |
the world to tragedy largely beneath the attention of the rich and | :03:21. | :03:24. | |
powerful. We put you on a street in Aleppo, everything you hear is the | :03:25. | :03:28. | |
same as a real event. Everything you are listening to is a documentary in | :03:29. | :03:32. | |
VR. It is essentially what it is like. Call it immersive journal I. | :03:33. | :03:42. | |
Others with -- Journalism. Others with ideas to transform economies. | :03:43. | :03:48. | |
What would I do if I was a new producer? So you mean an entire | :03:49. | :03:53. | |
human. Something useful? Let's see we want to print the ear of a new | :03:54. | :04:02. | |
producer. So you can start by printing a cell, scaffolding, then | :04:03. | :04:07. | |
you can have cells go through the scaffolding matrix and then | :04:08. | :04:12. | |
differentiate into an ear. But the central pitch of Davos is that by | :04:13. | :04:16. | |
bringing together billionares and Presidents, professors and | :04:17. | :04:21. | |
functionaries, the world can be made a better place. It is not an ignoble | :04:22. | :04:27. | |
aim nor a modest one. This is the world being carved up between big | :04:28. | :04:32. | |
businesses, Governments and NGOs, is it? Absolutely not, as you have | :04:33. | :04:39. | |
represented society as a whole, so if society is carving up society, | :04:40. | :04:44. | |
that is true! For all big names here deciding our future, one thing is | :04:45. | :04:49. | |
striking, they are not doing it in public. You still never get anywhere | :04:50. | :04:54. | |
near what is happening here, that is the big lie, that some how it all | :04:55. | :04:57. | |
takes place in the open, it doesn't. There is a lot of | :04:58. | :05:01. | |
behind-closed-doors meetings you or I don't go into. This isn't a | :05:02. | :05:06. | |
gathering of self-made and women, no less than the Queen of Belgium is | :05:07. | :05:09. | |
here. Britain is partly represented by an institution you can only join | :05:10. | :05:13. | |
by having the right parents. This gathering may be about many things, | :05:14. | :05:17. | |
it may even do some good somewhere, but it is not what you would call a | :05:18. | :05:22. | |
democracy. Now people have seen stuff about | :05:23. | :05:26. | |
Davos coming out of their televisions all day. But why are we | :05:27. | :05:32. | |
all here? With us now is Martin Sorrell, boss of the world's biggest | :05:33. | :05:38. | |
advertising agency, Za national curriculums Bedows, Economics Editor | :05:39. | :05:44. | |
of the Economist, and Felix Salmon, a disgruntled journalist from | :05:45. | :05:51. | |
Reuters. Let's look at who these people are, there is a lot of jolly | :05:52. | :05:58. | |
smug people as far as I can see looking outside and inside. You are | :05:59. | :06:04. | |
looking at me. I'm looking at the supposed movers and shakers, is that | :06:05. | :06:09. | |
fair comment? The cynicism in your introduction is reasonably well | :06:10. | :06:14. | |
placed. This is a gathering of plutocrats, a gathering of power | :06:15. | :06:17. | |
brokers and hangers on. They are very smug, there is a lot of power, | :06:18. | :06:22. | |
they know it. There is a lot of platitudes, what is the title this | :06:23. | :06:26. | |
year "reshaping the world". Lots of platitude, lots of discussion that | :06:27. | :06:29. | |
is platitude, but that said, there is a lot of useful stuff. You have a | :06:30. | :06:33. | |
lot of leaders in their field, from all over the world. Scientist, | :06:34. | :06:37. | |
academics, all manner of people. I learn a tonne here. Who would have | :06:38. | :06:42. | |
thought an Iranian President. So you have big-picture stuff and big | :06:43. | :06:46. | |
political moments. You also have an awful lot of people get together | :06:47. | :06:49. | |
doing smaller inYIFSH, I think a lot of stuff comes out of it. You are a | :06:50. | :06:54. | |
fan obviously? I have been doing it on and off, mostly on for 25 years. | :06:55. | :06:57. | |
It was very different in the old days, making we sound very old, it | :06:58. | :07:04. | |
was slightly more personal, it is more impersonal now, there are 2,500 | :07:05. | :07:08. | |
people here, there are 300 Government people. This is the | :07:09. | :07:11. | |
largest contingent of Government leaders that we have had at Davos. I | :07:12. | :07:16. | |
think as a talking shop, which is I think what you were getting round | :07:17. | :07:19. | |
to, as a piece of communication it is extremely valuable. It gets more | :07:20. | :07:23. | |
valuable every year. If you look at the agenda it is truly remarkable | :07:24. | :07:27. | |
what they cover. And you are absolutely right, for example, today | :07:28. | :07:33. | |
I was involved in an inYIFSH in the consumers goods industries which is | :07:34. | :07:37. | |
in terms of sustainability is extremely valuable, and I think | :07:38. | :07:40. | |
extremely important. There is no value in just intoneconsumers goods | :07:41. | :07:54. | |
industries which is in terms of sustainability is extremely | :07:55. | :07:56. | |
valuable, and I think extremely important. There is no value in just | :07:57. | :07:58. | |
intoning This is doing, multinationals will engage | :07:59. | :08:01. | |
millennials in sustainability... What is that? Younger people in | :08:02. | :08:08. | |
sustainability. The chances of them engaging them in anything is zero. I | :08:09. | :08:14. | |
would agree. Would you agree there is virtue in some people meeting and | :08:15. | :08:21. | |
talking? The real value was Martin in his party where he invites Larry | :08:22. | :08:28. | |
Summers and Ronaldo to play together, that is where people get | :08:29. | :08:31. | |
to know each other and hang out. There was a strong purpose, this is | :08:32. | :08:35. | |
the year of the Brazilian World Cup, having the World Cup's leading | :08:36. | :08:38. | |
scorer here was a pivitol moment for many, like you, not so much Larry | :08:39. | :08:43. | |
Summer, but Ronaldo. It is all part of it. The Brazilian World Cup and | :08:44. | :08:48. | |
the Olympics are emblematic events for Brazil and Latin America in the | :08:49. | :08:53. | |
context of worldwide development. Douma is coming here tomorrow, I | :08:54. | :08:57. | |
would be interested to hear what she says about the World Cup, which | :08:58. | :09:00. | |
there is some controversy about, as you know, and about the Olympics, | :09:01. | :09:03. | |
where the infrastructure investment is not being put in place. Don't you | :09:04. | :09:07. | |
get the feeling there is a lot of people on transmit and very few on | :09:08. | :09:10. | |
receive here? I think that is probably true. There is a lot of | :09:11. | :09:13. | |
people on transmit. Even if you have a few people on receive, there is a | :09:14. | :09:16. | |
lot of journalists here on receive I hope, rather than transmit. I think | :09:17. | :09:20. | |
that you get something out of that. Even if you have a very high noise | :09:21. | :09:25. | |
to signal ratio, there is something that comes out of it. People like | :09:26. | :09:28. | |
you wouldn't pay for doing this if you didn't get something out of it | :09:29. | :09:32. | |
righ What do you get out of it? We are instructed to think about the | :09:33. | :09:35. | |
big issues, forget about the financial crisis, and I think that's | :09:36. | :09:40. | |
a mistake. To focus on the youth unemployment, inequality, | :09:41. | :09:45. | |
healthcare, climate change. To start thinking about those big issues | :09:46. | :09:48. | |
rather than worry about the financial crisis or the Middle East | :09:49. | :09:54. | |
or whatever. That is a mistake, there is still the grey swans going | :09:55. | :09:57. | |
on in the world that may cause problems. I will give you one good | :09:58. | :10:01. | |
example of an insight we got here. This was the suggestion that there | :10:02. | :10:04. | |
might be a military conflict over the islands between China and Japan. | :10:05. | :10:08. | |
And that was something I think most people had dismissed, but both the | :10:09. | :10:13. | |
Chinese, or rep presentatives of the Chinese have said it is -- | :10:14. | :10:16. | |
representatives of the Chinese have said it is a military option, and | :10:17. | :10:19. | |
the Japanese Prime Minister did not rule it out as an option. And you | :10:20. | :10:23. | |
have a number of extremely worried people as a result of this. The | :10:24. | :10:27. | |
parallels are made to previous situations. The World Economic Forum | :10:28. | :10:31. | |
has actually this year has become the World Political forum, we have | :10:32. | :10:34. | |
had the Japanese President making wave, the Chinese, the Ukrainian, | :10:35. | :10:39. | |
the Syrian, I think all the Central Bank governors and finance ministers | :10:40. | :10:42. | |
who have historically been the centre of this event have been | :10:43. | :10:46. | |
sidelined. I don't think it has bun centre any more, it is too big for | :10:47. | :10:49. | |
that. To try to say there is one big Davos team is also a mistake, if you | :10:50. | :10:53. | |
do try to do that it becomes platitudeness. I think there is a | :10:54. | :10:56. | |
lot of things going on with different people in different | :10:57. | :10:58. | |
industries, whether it is the water people or the new technology people, | :10:59. | :11:01. | |
they are all doing useful stuff, talking to each other. And crossing | :11:02. | :11:06. | |
over. We meet the media people, they meeting with the technology people. | :11:07. | :11:09. | |
I went to the health thing this morning, I got this as a result. I'm | :11:10. | :11:13. | |
much health year. We are all wearing things! We will be back with with | :11:14. | :11:19. | |
you in a moment or two. Of the various advanced economies, plunged | :11:20. | :11:23. | |
into misfortune by the folly of bankers, Britain seems to be | :11:24. | :11:26. | |
recovering better than some, at least according to the International | :11:27. | :11:30. | |
Monetary Fund. Acknowledging there is still a long way to go though. In | :11:31. | :11:34. | |
his only broadcast interview in Davos I spoke earlier to the | :11:35. | :11:38. | |
governor of the the Bank of England, Mark Carney. | :11:39. | :11:42. | |
Mark Carney, when Central Bankers like you get together here or | :11:43. | :11:45. | |
elsewhere, and you think about the state of the world economy, do you | :11:46. | :11:49. | |
think thank heavens that is all behind us? No, not at all. You know | :11:50. | :11:57. | |
where we are, some, its worst of the crisis is behind us, but the | :11:58. | :12:00. | |
aftermath of the crisis is very much with us. In a number of our | :12:01. | :12:04. | |
economies, including the UK, the financial system isn't fully | :12:05. | :12:06. | |
repaired, it is not functioning as well as it could or shut. -- should. | :12:07. | :12:14. | |
We have debt overhangs holding back recoveries for Governments. We have | :12:15. | :12:17. | |
a great deal of uncertainty out there amongst households, | :12:18. | :12:22. | |
individuals and businesses that are preventing particularly investment. | :12:23. | :12:26. | |
So we think those factor, those three factors are going to persist | :12:27. | :12:31. | |
for some time and that helps effect, or that does effect how we set | :12:32. | :12:35. | |
policy. We in Britain had four or five very tough years, so we're just | :12:36. | :12:39. | |
getting to the point where the level of economic activity in Britain is | :12:40. | :12:45. | |
the same it was in 2008 before the crisis. That is some what | :12:46. | :12:48. | |
unprecedented period of time in order to come back. But there is | :12:49. | :12:51. | |
momentum in that economy. The one fly in the ointment is the Bank of | :12:52. | :12:55. | |
England's economic forecasting isn't it? Well, if... It is not good? If | :12:56. | :13:01. | |
our forecast is going to be wrong it is better to be wrong in the | :13:02. | :13:04. | |
direction it was. This is, let's be clear, good news is good news here, | :13:05. | :13:08. | |
we have got unemployment coming down faster, these are private sector | :13:09. | :13:11. | |
jobs, they are high-quality jobs. This is two years ahead of when you | :13:12. | :13:16. | |
said it would happen? It is two years ahead of a, of the most likely | :13:17. | :13:21. | |
scenario we saw at the time. If I can put this into the context of the | :13:22. | :13:24. | |
recovery, it is quite important to the sustainability of the recovery | :13:25. | :13:29. | |
is one of the big questions for the UK more than any other major | :13:30. | :13:32. | |
advanced economy is what will happen to productivity in the economy. When | :13:33. | :13:36. | |
is that going to start to pick up. And what has happened in the early | :13:37. | :13:40. | |
stages of the recovery is there has been very little productivity | :13:41. | :13:44. | |
growth. That is the bad news. The good news is there is this | :13:45. | :13:47. | |
employment growth. We need both ultimately to have this sustainable | :13:48. | :13:50. | |
recovery. We are almost at the point now where you had thought it might | :13:51. | :13:55. | |
be appropriate to look at interest rate levels? We made an easy call | :13:56. | :14:00. | |
when I came in, and which is to say it would not be appropriate to even | :14:01. | :14:04. | |
begin to think about, even begin to think about raising interest rates, | :14:05. | :14:09. | |
until we saw the economy really growing, jobs really growing, | :14:10. | :14:13. | |
incomes really growing. Now we used one figure in order to capture that | :14:14. | :14:18. | |
idea. Was that a mistake? No, not at all. We are now almost at t the | :14:19. | :14:24. | |
unemployment figure? Would you rather be at it two years from now | :14:25. | :14:28. | |
or now. I go back, good news is good news. We have got inflation on | :14:29. | :14:31. | |
target, we have got unemployment coming down, we have got the economy | :14:32. | :14:36. | |
picking up at a rate, finally, that is above its trend, finally starting | :14:37. | :14:40. | |
to close the gap of where it should be relative to where it was. So this | :14:41. | :14:45. | |
is good news and we made it very clear to businesses, and to | :14:46. | :14:49. | |
households across the country, that we're going to take stock once we | :14:50. | :14:55. | |
get to 7%, once the economy gets to 7% unemployment rate and consider | :14:56. | :14:59. | |
the appropriate stands on the monetary policy. We don't see a need | :15:00. | :15:04. | |
to change the monetary policy, we said that thissies. I will enforce | :15:05. | :15:09. | |
-- this week. I will enforce it and say when monetary policy changes, | :15:10. | :15:12. | |
and given the head winds very much affecting Britain, we would expect | :15:13. | :15:16. | |
any adjustment to be very grabbed actual. The important thing is to | :15:17. | :15:19. | |
set monetary policy in a way, in a fashion that's going to ensure that | :15:20. | :15:22. | |
this economy is really and sustainably growing. So it will be | :15:23. | :15:27. | |
re-examined when we get to 7%? We have an inflation report, I know you | :15:28. | :15:33. | |
are an avid reader, it is coming out in February! We will do the | :15:34. | :15:36. | |
examination there, we are close enough to do the co-operation people | :15:37. | :15:40. | |
want to know. Would you imagine that interest rates might rise? There is | :15:41. | :15:44. | |
no immediate need to increase interest rates. If I may give a | :15:45. | :15:48. | |
little more colour to that. Is what we have seen is the unemployment | :15:49. | :15:53. | |
rate come down, we have also seen a lot more Britains Britons want to | :15:54. | :16:00. | |
work, we have seen they want to work longer hours than previously, that | :16:01. | :16:03. | |
is partly because of where wages are going. There are indications of more | :16:04. | :16:08. | |
slack in that labour market. The figure you have chosen of 7% is your | :16:09. | :16:14. | |
choice, could it be defined and be 6%, 6. 5 perks 6. 6.9%? There is a | :16:15. | :16:19. | |
broad range of things that we could do. I wouldn't jump to that | :16:20. | :16:23. | |
conclusion though. First off it is a decision of the entire monetary | :16:24. | :16:28. | |
policy committee. And secondly, what we are trying to get across, and | :16:29. | :16:32. | |
what has, people understand, it is really about overall conditions in | :16:33. | :16:36. | |
the labour market, overall amount of slack in companies. That's what | :16:37. | :16:41. | |
affects it. So we wouldn't want to distract from that focus which is | :16:42. | :16:44. | |
really properly developed in the market and in amongst business | :16:45. | :16:50. | |
people by unnecessarily focussing too much on just one indicator. It | :16:51. | :16:55. | |
has a nice clarity to it doesn't it? It has. I will remind, if I may, | :16:56. | :16:59. | |
that when we put this in place we were just coming off the cusp, the | :17:00. | :17:07. | |
of a triple-dip scare for a recession. There was tremendous | :17:08. | :17:11. | |
uncertainty about the stance of monetary policy, there was a split | :17:12. | :17:14. | |
MPC committee. And business had been facing a lot of uncertainty and | :17:15. | :17:18. | |
households. We were looking to provide collaterality. I think we | :17:19. | :17:21. | |
are in a different place now. Sound to me as if you feel like a man | :17:22. | :17:27. | |
rather on the hook of his own making which he wishes he didn't have. I | :17:28. | :17:35. | |
will repeat myself, inflation is back on target, 300,000 jobs, | :17:36. | :17:44. | |
private sector created in the last quarter measured. One of the | :17:45. | :17:48. | |
strongest growing economies in the advanced world, the recovery has | :17:49. | :17:52. | |
taken hold, and the question is converting it into a sustainable and | :17:53. | :17:56. | |
balanced recovery. Do you worry about a housing bubble? We worry | :17:57. | :18:00. | |
about the momentum picking up in the housing market, that without | :18:01. | :18:02. | |
question. What we have done, what we did in November is we took some | :18:03. | :18:07. | |
initial steps to address that momentum. We took our foot off the | :18:08. | :18:12. | |
accelerator. We are not hitting the brake on the housing market, because | :18:13. | :18:16. | |
transactions are about three-quarters of what they were | :18:17. | :18:19. | |
before the crisis, the long-term average. Mortgage approvals are | :18:20. | :18:24. | |
about the same level, prices have bounced off recent lows, there is | :18:25. | :18:27. | |
much more to the housing market, as you are well aware, than just what | :18:28. | :18:30. | |
is happening in London and the south-east, we have to make national | :18:31. | :18:34. | |
policy. Can I raise very briefly three other points with you. Have | :18:35. | :18:38. | |
you spoken to Ed Miliband since you dissed his banking policy? Well, | :18:39. | :18:43. | |
since the second part of that question isn't true. You did! It | :18:44. | :18:51. | |
would be impossible for me. You said capping bankers' bonuses in the way | :18:52. | :18:55. | |
he was proposing wasn't helpful. You further had queries about his ideas | :18:56. | :18:59. | |
of cutting banks down to market share? Two things, we have | :19:00. | :19:03. | |
responsibility for financial stability at the Bank of England. | :19:04. | :19:07. | |
When we look at the banker bonus issue we look at it from the | :19:08. | :19:09. | |
perspective of financial stability. It is worse for financial stability | :19:10. | :19:14. | |
to pay a banker all in cash today than to hold a bunch of that money | :19:15. | :19:18. | |
back and put it in shares and other things and have the ability, and for | :19:19. | :19:23. | |
that money only to show up well down the road, when the risk that banker | :19:24. | :19:27. | |
has taken shows up, or the misconduct he has performed shows | :19:28. | :19:30. | |
up, and have the ability to claw that back. Could Ed Miliband's | :19:31. | :19:35. | |
banking policy possibly work? Well, there is range of objectives, I | :19:36. | :19:40. | |
think what the leader of the opposition said, subsequent loo nigh | :19:41. | :19:44. | |
comments about different aspects of the issues that he subsequently said | :19:45. | :19:48. | |
in his speech, was that he was going to refer to the relevant | :19:49. | :19:52. | |
authorities. Which are not the Bank of England, it is the competition | :19:53. | :19:54. | |
market authority. So they would make that decision if it were to come to | :19:55. | :19:59. | |
that. Let me invite you to stick your hand into another hornet's | :20:00. | :20:03. | |
nest. Could the independent Scotland retain the pound? There are issues | :20:04. | :20:09. | |
with respect to currency unions. We have seen them in Europe. It is one | :20:10. | :20:12. | |
of the factors that affects the outlook for the UK economy, it has | :20:13. | :20:16. | |
affected over the last five years and affects us going forward. The | :20:17. | :20:20. | |
challenges of having a currency union without certain institutional | :20:21. | :20:26. | |
structures. I'm actually going to speak this issue in Scotland next | :20:27. | :20:32. | |
week and I'm certainly going to meet with the First Minister prior to | :20:33. | :20:35. | |
doing so. Would you look forward to managing a currency of which | :20:36. | :20:40. | |
Scotland was a part? I'm a public servant and I and my colleagues | :20:41. | :20:43. | |
would implement whatever remit we were given. One other question, I | :20:44. | :20:51. | |
wonder when you look at the called krypto-currencies, like Bitcoin and | :20:52. | :20:56. | |
the like. Do you ever think that the life expectancy of someone in your | :20:57. | :21:00. | |
position, not you obviously personally, but the life of national | :21:01. | :21:05. | |
bank governors is distinctly limited? No, I don't actually for | :21:06. | :21:09. | |
this reason, certainly it is interesting what is happening in | :21:10. | :21:14. | |
this regard. But the experience of what I would call free banking, the | :21:15. | :21:18. | |
experience in the 19th century in the US and Canada, where banks | :21:19. | :21:21. | |
themselves could issue their own notes was that you had much higher | :21:22. | :21:26. | |
rates of failure, because almost inevitably, not in every case, the | :21:27. | :21:31. | |
incentive to issue more notes in order to keep things going is there. | :21:32. | :21:34. | |
Whether those notes are electronic or physical, there is a need to have | :21:35. | :21:39. | |
an independent eptity, this is what we have learned over centuries, an | :21:40. | :21:42. | |
independent eptity with a clear remit, a clear objective, like a 2% | :21:43. | :21:46. | |
inflation target, as the Bank of England does, that is accountable to | :21:47. | :21:51. | |
people and part of that accountability is meeting you. Do | :21:52. | :21:58. | |
you have any Bitcoins yourself? I do not. Would you like some! I can't | :21:59. | :22:07. | |
invest any money so...! Investing in my children, Jeremy! Well now, what | :22:08. | :22:14. | |
do you reckon we should make of the unemployment target and the | :22:15. | :22:18. | |
inflation, and the interest rate level? I you gave Mark Carney a hard | :22:19. | :22:28. | |
time there. I think the coming down of the and the UK doesn't need a | :22:29. | :22:35. | |
rate hike any time soon. But laying out a threshold not a trigger is | :22:36. | :22:39. | |
going to be problematic now we are close to it. It is true that it is | :22:40. | :22:44. | |
one figure that was a sort of proxy for broader slack, as economists say | :22:45. | :22:48. | |
in the labour market, now they have the problem of how are they going to | :22:49. | :22:52. | |
convince you that they won't raise rates very fast, when we are close | :22:53. | :22:55. | |
to the rate now. It is interesting because the same kind of thing is | :22:56. | :22:58. | |
happening in the US, for different reasons but the same kind of thing | :22:59. | :23:01. | |
is happening. There was a threshold set, we are getting very close to | :23:02. | :23:05. | |
it, the Central Bank don't want to raise rights wraiths any time soon. | :23:06. | :23:09. | |
They shouldn't. But giving clarity in that environment, and maintaining | :23:10. | :23:13. | |
credibility is going to be tricky, and you saw Mark Carney squirm a | :23:14. | :23:18. | |
little bit. There has been very little discussion about tapering or | :23:19. | :23:21. | |
the impact of tapering, a bit but not a lot. I think we saw the | :23:22. | :23:26. | |
markets get very nervous when tapering was even mentioned. They | :23:27. | :23:30. | |
got nervous last year and there was a lot of discussion and when they | :23:31. | :23:34. | |
did it it was no long sore sure. We priced in, we had the taper tantrum | :23:35. | :23:39. | |
last year, it is over and done with, we have screamed and cried like the | :23:40. | :23:45. | |
red Queen in Alice in Wonderland. It will come again, one of the things | :23:46. | :23:48. | |
we are all focussed on is unemployment and youth unemployment. | :23:49. | :23:54. | |
We talk about 6. 5-7% and youth unemployment employment is double | :23:55. | :23:57. | |
that rate, 12-14%. What is interesting is the foreguide yarns | :23:58. | :24:06. | |
you start to -- foreguidance, you start to look at it, years earlier | :24:07. | :24:11. | |
we were all focussed on full employment and the inflation was the | :24:12. | :24:16. | |
threat. The inflation rate is back to target, and the economy is just | :24:17. | :24:18. | |
getting up to where it was before the crisis. There is not any sign of | :24:19. | :24:23. | |
overheating in the vaguest sense in the economy, there is no wage | :24:24. | :24:27. | |
pressure. So the risk I think is still that central banks act too | :24:28. | :24:32. | |
fast and too quickly and do too much. This recovery is not secure? I | :24:33. | :24:40. | |
don't think it is secure. It is a gentle recovery. Everything that was | :24:41. | :24:44. | |
said in the interview about there being too much debt, too much debt. | :24:45. | :24:49. | |
Nobody is advocating massive rate heights because we hit some arbitary | :24:50. | :24:53. | |
target. Look at what the recovery in the UK is based on, it is consumer | :24:54. | :24:58. | |
spending from rising house prices and the housing bubble we can talk | :24:59. | :25:03. | |
about. Investment is flat on its back. Investment is on flat rate | :25:04. | :25:10. | |
across the board, corporated sitting on trillions, they are not making | :25:11. | :25:13. | |
investments banks. The biggest risk for our business this year is | :25:14. | :25:18. | |
failure by business to invest in brand or capital investment. Do you | :25:19. | :25:23. | |
feel confident in your business? Do I feel confident in it. Not in your | :25:24. | :25:27. | |
particular business, does your business, as a whole, feel secure in | :25:28. | :25:33. | |
the state of the, the pace of recovery? I think there was a | :25:34. | :25:38. | |
quantum shift in corporate opinion and behaviour post Lehmans, post | :25:39. | :25:49. | |
September 2008, people talked about people but it was corporate. Our | :25:50. | :25:56. | |
sweet spot has become less powerful, I think that is the problem. In | :25:57. | :25:59. | |
order to get to numbers they cut costs, they then invest in top line | :26:00. | :26:04. | |
growth and part of the reason is GDP growth is still below trend. The | :26:05. | :26:09. | |
sort of GDP growth we see on a worldwide basis is less than | :26:10. | :26:15. | |
pre-2008, it is like Mark Carney saying the UK economy is just | :26:16. | :26:18. | |
getting back. People are very cautious. What I worried about is | :26:19. | :26:26. | |
not focussing on the top line. You mentioned one of the things talked | :26:27. | :26:29. | |
about here, youth unemployment, which has the capacity to throw all | :26:30. | :26:33. | |
calculation off at some point. This is a phenomenon right across the | :26:34. | :26:38. | |
world. Are there other things that could really throw off any kind of | :26:39. | :26:41. | |
calculation or assumptions made about the future? Technology. All | :26:42. | :26:48. | |
the improvements, most of the improvements in technology are | :26:49. | :26:55. | |
capital intense, if not labour-intensive. 3 -D printing, and | :26:56. | :27:03. | |
the management processes and lack of need there of. This will have a very | :27:04. | :27:07. | |
significant impact on unemployment, and youth unemployment, it is | :27:08. | :27:10. | |
something I think that is the critical issue, the critical | :27:11. | :27:15. | |
long-term issue. Inequality stems from that. Young people f they miss | :27:16. | :27:18. | |
out on a job for the first five years of their career, their | :27:19. | :27:23. | |
lifetime earnings are drastically reduced. I think we radically | :27:24. | :27:29. | |
oversimplified, if you look back over the last 30 year, we had a | :27:30. | :27:33. | |
digital revolution, on going and gathering pace. The consequence is a | :27:34. | :27:38. | |
big shift way from workers towards capital, strength of capital, | :27:39. | :27:40. | |
strength of profit and firms. You have seen a big rise in income and | :27:41. | :27:44. | |
equality within workers, you have seen the returns going | :27:45. | :27:48. | |
overwhelmingly to people who are skilled. Then you had the financial | :27:49. | :27:51. | |
crisis on top of. That you had the huge recession and huge downturn, we | :27:52. | :27:55. | |
are recovering from that. But the big secular trend is still there and | :27:56. | :28:01. | |
intensified. We had the problem of the Chinese labour force entering | :28:02. | :28:04. | |
the global market, flooding the world with cheap labour, now the | :28:05. | :28:08. | |
Chinese labour force is being replaced with robots which means all | :28:09. | :28:13. | |
of those Chinese workers will want higher-skilled jobs. If they | :28:14. | :28:16. | |
compete, which they will in a global world with our youth, our youth is | :28:17. | :28:21. | |
going to find it really, really hard. We haven't even touched upon | :28:22. | :28:26. | |
the political anxieties. Go on? What is really interesting about the | :28:27. | :28:29. | |
debate you had with the governor is what does it mean politically. It | :28:30. | :28:33. | |
looks to me as though the Conservatives are, as we go into | :28:34. | :28:37. | |
2015 going to be in a stronger position than others thought. And | :28:38. | :28:40. | |
the coaliti will be in a stronger position. You have Ed Miliband | :28:41. | :28:43. | |
taking the party to the left, chastising business, you saw stuff | :28:44. | :28:46. | |
in the papers this morning about the reaction from business to that. I | :28:47. | :28:49. | |
think it is really interesting politically. The other factor, of | :28:50. | :28:54. | |
course, is the referendum, if Cameron winds, well coalition wins | :28:55. | :28:57. | |
we will have a referendum. If Ed Miliband wins we won't. It is the | :28:58. | :29:01. | |
devil and the deep blue sea. This is as nothing compared to some of the | :29:02. | :29:04. | |
international political problems that could upset all calculation? | :29:05. | :29:09. | |
The big one being Syria, or China-Japan. There is any number of | :29:10. | :29:15. | |
potential massive war configuration that is could happen overnight. And | :29:16. | :29:20. | |
Davos has not been a good predictor of the black spots! As I mentioned | :29:21. | :29:25. | |
earlier, the World Economic Forum isn't modest in its scope, but then | :29:26. | :29:29. | |
there is no shortage of things to worry about. | :29:30. | :31:39. | |
Now this gathering is supposed to be about dealing with global issues, so | :31:40. | :31:45. | |
here in defiance of the institutional prejudice against | :31:46. | :31:51. | |
those who don't have the Y-sex chromosome, we have the Ugandan | :31:52. | :31:59. | |
Finance Minister. The lady who worked her way up from a sweatshop | :32:00. | :32:04. | |
to become one of the richest women in China, and Ella, my Turkish is | :32:05. | :32:11. | |
pretty bad, she's the most read female author in Turkey. Do you | :32:12. | :32:17. | |
feel, let me start with you, it is striking how few women there are | :32:18. | :32:22. | |
represented at a senior level here isn't it? In the forum. Yes, I have | :32:23. | :32:28. | |
noticed that. Why? That is what I was going to ask you what is the | :32:29. | :32:35. | |
answer? It is puzzling because taking Uganda for instance, there is | :32:36. | :32:42. | |
no legal barriers for women coming up in business or in Government. For | :32:43. | :32:48. | |
instance we have a requirement that in every constituency has a woman | :32:49. | :32:53. | |
MP. That is a third of the MPs in parliament are women to begin with. | :32:54. | :33:00. | |
I don't know. What's your view? You know I would say just the opposite, | :33:01. | :33:05. | |
I have been coming here for the last almost ten years, I have noticed | :33:06. | :33:10. | |
this recent two years that women's participation has hugely increased. | :33:11. | :33:14. | |
Is that your impression too, you have been before haven't you? That | :33:15. | :33:18. | |
is not my impression, of course it is true in the sense that in the | :33:19. | :33:23. | |
audience, among the listeners there are many women and there are | :33:24. | :33:27. | |
beautiful conversations, but when we look at the numbers and statistics, | :33:28. | :33:32. | |
85% of the participants at Davos are male, 15% are female. There is a | :33:33. | :33:37. | |
big, big gap. Unfortunately this year it has even fallen under the | :33:38. | :33:42. | |
statistics of two years ago. Now you weren't able to see all that some of | :33:43. | :33:46. | |
those amazing statistics that were just running through, but one of the | :33:47. | :33:50. | |
most striking things is that the difference in what's changed in | :33:51. | :33:55. | |
Africa compared to the difference to what has changed in China, now why | :33:56. | :34:01. | |
is this? Why has China forged ahead so much and Africa not forged ahead | :34:02. | :34:06. | |
in anything like the same level in the last ten years. What's your view | :34:07. | :34:11. | |
of that? I think in Africa our Governments went through about two | :34:12. | :34:16. | |
decades of finding their feet, so to speak. We went through coups, | :34:17. | :34:22. | |
military dictatorships, but in the 1990s we got our act together, | :34:23. | :34:27. | |
governance, fiscal discipline, focussing on the priorities. And it | :34:28. | :34:31. | |
has happened to coincide with a time when China was coming up. I think | :34:32. | :34:40. | |
what's now, our natural resource bases offer a lot of interest to | :34:41. | :34:44. | |
many people. Africa is now on the cusp. But we have a big deficit and | :34:45. | :34:48. | |
we need to keep concentrated. We have an infrastructure deficit. We | :34:49. | :34:52. | |
have a human productivity deficit, we need to take our advantages and | :34:53. | :35:01. | |
define them. Is there something about Chinese society that makes it | :35:02. | :35:04. | |
naturally able to progress faster? Well you have a relatively simple | :35:05. | :35:12. | |
and one-party ruling politics which makes decisions easy. You also have, | :35:13. | :35:18. | |
in China, previous to the recent 30 years of reforms a very suppressed | :35:19. | :35:27. | |
social system. So that the recent reforms have unleashed all the | :35:28. | :35:31. | |
energy. And plus the huge population, very disciplined, hard | :35:32. | :35:35. | |
working work force. Now when you get a successful | :35:36. | :35:40. | |
transformation taking place, as is happening, to some degree in Turkey, | :35:41. | :35:45. | |
it sets off all sorts of social tensions doesn't it? Turkey is a | :35:46. | :35:49. | |
very interesting case, and a very complicated case, if I may say so. | :35:50. | :35:53. | |
It is not like any other country in the Middle East. It is not a | :35:54. | :36:03. | |
typically authoritarian country or democracy either, it is somewhere | :36:04. | :36:05. | |
inbetween. It is difficult to analyse the country. We have had a | :36:06. | :36:10. | |
strong economy, especially in the last decade, but afterwards, what | :36:11. | :36:17. | |
followed was especially along with political unrest, because I think | :36:18. | :36:20. | |
politics affects everything. I don't think there is enough emphasis on | :36:21. | :36:24. | |
these things. We're always talking about emerging markets, how you know | :36:25. | :36:31. | |
Mexico, Nigeria, Turkey, independent nearings are the new e-- Indonesian, | :36:32. | :36:38. | |
are the new emerging markets but we don't focus on the political | :36:39. | :36:41. | |
circumstances. It seems to be accepted here that inequality in the | :36:42. | :36:48. | |
world is a danger. Do you see it that way, if so how is it a danger. | :36:49. | :36:54. | |
Surely it has always existed? Inequality has always existed but | :36:55. | :36:58. | |
now with the pace of progress and globalisation and technology, you | :36:59. | :37:04. | |
know in the global media. People now see and here things they never used | :37:05. | :37:08. | |
to see or hear about. In the most remote villages they can see big | :37:09. | :37:14. | |
cars, leather jackets, people going on space shuttles to the moon, and | :37:15. | :37:21. | |
they say why can't I have that. The aspirational aspects of life I think | :37:22. | :37:25. | |
are now much more immediate in our children's generation and in the one | :37:26. | :37:31. | |
after them. But I'm not sure I think that we should concentrate now on | :37:32. | :37:37. | |
the inequality and forget about forging ahead. Because you need to | :37:38. | :37:41. | |
grow the pie before you can share it out. It is this place that's talking | :37:42. | :37:47. | |
about the dangers of inequality. Yeah. It is, and looking at it from | :37:48. | :37:56. | |
my perspective, from in the African perspective, I say that growth, for | :37:57. | :38:02. | |
instance, in Uganda, we have got an index whereby our poverty level has | :38:03. | :38:10. | |
dropped from 24% to 20%, but there was an inequality. You can't say you | :38:11. | :38:15. | |
are going to hold everybody back in order to make sure that there is no | :38:16. | :38:21. | |
inequality. You have to let people go ahead and get the people able to | :38:22. | :38:26. | |
go ahead to go ahead and come back and pick up the others. I will | :38:27. | :38:32. | |
explore it a few moments from now. Earlier I caught up with Bill Gates, | :38:33. | :38:36. | |
the founder of Microsoft, he made money beyond the dreams of of a var | :38:37. | :38:44. | |
Ritz, and decided a -- avarice and decided to spend the money helping | :38:45. | :38:48. | |
others. I wanted to know what he thought about foreign aid and the | :38:49. | :38:51. | |
gap between rich and poor. When you hear the statistic from | :38:52. | :38:55. | |
Oxfam that the poorest half of the world's population own about as much | :38:56. | :39:00. | |
as the 85 richest people in the world, including you, does that make | :39:01. | :39:06. | |
you feel uncomfortable? What makes me uncomfortable is that children | :39:07. | :39:09. | |
die, that people don't get a good education, they don't get enough | :39:10. | :39:12. | |
nutrition. That is what I have devoted my life to working on. So | :39:13. | :39:17. | |
all of that money that's in my hands is actually going against those | :39:18. | :39:21. | |
problems. But you don't deny the gap between rich and poor seems to have | :39:22. | :39:26. | |
got worse? No, the gap between rich and poor is not worse, thank | :39:27. | :39:31. | |
goodness. Less children are dying, people a living longer, people are | :39:32. | :39:38. | |
more literate. If you geoback far enough everybody was poor. You just | :39:39. | :39:46. | |
want everybody to be the same, 200 years ago life was very short. A | :39:47. | :39:49. | |
third of all children died before the age of five. That was an age of | :39:50. | :39:56. | |
strong equality. Do you think enough is being spent on international aid? | :39:57. | :40:01. | |
I would like to see that increased. Particularly the programmes where | :40:02. | :40:06. | |
you are buying Malaria bed nets and preventing deaths there. You are | :40:07. | :40:11. | |
buying vitamin A, you are buying AIDS drugs, you are inventing n | :40:12. | :40:17. | |
seeds, giving them out, educating farmers how to use those things. We | :40:18. | :40:21. | |
have seen phenomenal benefits in the aid programmes we are partnered in. | :40:22. | :40:32. | |
You are a notable philanthropist, why is it British tax-payers or | :40:33. | :40:38. | |
anywhere else in Europe and the world should they spend money on | :40:39. | :40:42. | |
poorer people in poor countries? You have to decide do the lives in | :40:43. | :40:48. | |
Africa have any value or not? Do we as we see them starving, not having | :40:49. | :40:55. | |
enough nutrition, not having access to vaccines, having diseases that | :40:56. | :41:00. | |
more money is spent on solving baldness than spend on a disease | :41:01. | :41:03. | |
that kills a million children. Does that bother us or not. Are we | :41:04. | :41:07. | |
willing to take, in the case of the UK, less than 2% of all Government | :41:08. | :41:13. | |
spending and have it go towards the very poorest, which in fact is very | :41:14. | :41:17. | |
generous. You could completely alter the picture of the world if you went | :41:18. | :41:24. | |
for a genuine redisputive method in taxation? You mean like North Korea? | :41:25. | :41:29. | |
No, by democratic consent? Well yeah. You could do that? You could, | :41:30. | :41:33. | |
we have many democracies they have all have different taxation | :41:34. | :41:40. | |
policies, the Nordic countries have certain taxation policies and the UK | :41:41. | :41:48. | |
has different ones, I'm nott an expert on any -- I'm not an expert, | :41:49. | :41:55. | |
except in the US. Would you want the levels to change? I have been a big | :41:56. | :42:00. | |
opponent of the estate tax. I believe that income on capital we | :42:01. | :42:04. | |
could tax that a bit higher. When you saw the results of the Senate | :42:05. | :42:09. | |
investigation into Microsoft's tax affairs, and the allegation that | :42:10. | :42:15. | |
about $4 million of taxes a day wasn't being paid because of the way | :42:16. | :42:19. | |
that Microsoft managed their fares, what did you think? I think that's | :42:20. | :42:23. | |
about as incorrect a characterisation of anything I have | :42:24. | :42:25. | |
ever heard. It was the allegation that was made? No, no, it is simply | :42:26. | :42:31. | |
hog wash. Which aspect is hog wash? The idea that Microsoft didn't pay | :42:32. | :42:36. | |
its taxes. It is not that Microsoft didn't pay taxes, it is that they | :42:37. | :42:41. | |
could have paid more taxes? Voluntarily? Yes, by choosing to | :42:42. | :42:45. | |
organise their affairs differently rather than running them through | :42:46. | :42:50. | |
Puerto Rico? Your numbers are completely wrong. Let me put it | :42:51. | :42:54. | |
another way, as statement of principle are you in favour of | :42:55. | :42:59. | |
people saying as much tax as possible? I think that if your | :43:00. | :43:05. | |
Government should pass the tax laws that they need in order to collect | :43:06. | :43:10. | |
the revenue they want to collect, I don't think you know saying that | :43:11. | :43:14. | |
people should volunteer to pay taxes is likely to raise that much. It can | :43:15. | :43:20. | |
be tried. But you know, the rules are set, I paid more taxes than any | :43:21. | :43:25. | |
individual ever and gladly, so I should pay more. I have paid over $6 | :43:26. | :43:30. | |
billion in taxes. How do you persuade people it is their | :43:31. | :43:34. | |
political or moral duty to pay tax, in order that there can be some sort | :43:35. | :43:38. | |
of redistribution? You make sure that they follow the law and pay | :43:39. | :43:42. | |
their tax, if you don't you put them in jail. It seems to work! Bill | :43:43. | :43:48. | |
Gates thank you very much. What do you make of his approach? I don't | :43:49. | :43:55. | |
know, I mean it is very interesting to say that, in China we are on the | :43:56. | :44:00. | |
different side of it, because you know we're in an economy that's | :44:01. | :44:05. | |
trying to boost consumption versus just boosting investment. Part of it | :44:06. | :44:10. | |
is how do you get people to spend money. They need to have more cash | :44:11. | :44:14. | |
in their hands. By doing so the Government needs to lower the income | :44:15. | :44:18. | |
tax, not raise the income tax. This question though of aid, Bill Gates | :44:19. | :44:23. | |
has been a generous man, particularly to countries in Africa. | :44:24. | :44:28. | |
And yet you get to this point that gets to there where he refuses to | :44:29. | :44:33. | |
take a moral position about whether people should pay more tax in order | :44:34. | :44:41. | |
to give more in aid. He sees it as a political decision or personal | :44:42. | :44:46. | |
decision. What do you think? Looking at it from the point of view of an | :44:47. | :44:50. | |
African Finance Minister, yes the Government has a duty to tax and as | :44:51. | :44:56. | |
a redistribution of wealth. But we must make sure that since the taxes | :44:57. | :45:01. | |
in our countries are so precious, we must make sure they go into | :45:02. | :45:05. | |
sustainability, they go into the areas where the private sector can't | :45:06. | :45:11. | |
do. For instance in Uganda we are concentrating on narrowing the | :45:12. | :45:15. | |
infrastructure gap, roads and power, we are concentrating on the human | :45:16. | :45:22. | |
productivity, health and education. For the rest, making sure that the | :45:23. | :45:28. | |
macro environment is such that the private sector can forge ahead. And | :45:29. | :45:32. | |
trying to spend the tax revenues with governance and accountability. | :45:33. | :45:36. | |
You see if you give accountability, if people can see where their tax | :45:37. | :45:40. | |
money is going and what it is doing, they are not, they are not adverse | :45:41. | :45:46. | |
to paying taxes. What's your take on this, on the question of how you | :45:47. | :45:50. | |
persuade people it's worth paying taxes to narrow the gap between rich | :45:51. | :45:54. | |
and poor? Find it very important that this year in Davos the main | :45:55. | :46:00. | |
subject is inequality. There is so much inequality all over the world. | :46:01. | :46:03. | |
It is such a pressing matter, you know. Not only among countries when | :46:04. | :46:08. | |
you look at the list of countries and their level, within every | :46:09. | :46:12. | |
country as well. We see big huge regional differences and this has | :46:13. | :46:18. | |
big social implications and political implications. And I think | :46:19. | :46:20. | |
more and more people are recognising that all the rest adds up and comes | :46:21. | :46:25. | |
back to the economy again. It is a circle, you cannot separate these | :46:26. | :46:29. | |
facts from one another any more. What is happening in the political | :46:30. | :46:32. | |
world is affecting what is happening in the economic world. What is | :46:33. | :46:35. | |
happening in the social, the class gap is affecting the financial | :46:36. | :46:39. | |
situation. Everything is interconnected. I don't want to be | :46:40. | :46:45. | |
apot hintic, we are sitting -- apocalyptic, we are sitting here in | :46:46. | :46:51. | |
2014, and with a world war or catastrophe that nobody saw coming. | :46:52. | :46:56. | |
Are we talking about these stakes when it comes to inequality and | :46:57. | :47:00. | |
chnology change and the rest? There is a lot of hope and there is a lot | :47:01. | :47:05. | |
of reasons to be pessimistic as well. They are two completely | :47:06. | :47:10. | |
opposite trends working at full forced to. On the one hand the world | :47:11. | :47:19. | |
is more globalised, people are more and more seeing themselves as world | :47:20. | :47:23. | |
citizens and feel themselves connected and are looking for moral | :47:24. | :47:27. | |
values that bind us together. But on the other hand, I think there is | :47:28. | :47:35. | |
enough of the extremist ideology, ultra nationalism, these are also on | :47:36. | :47:38. | |
the rise. We have to recognise these two opposite forces working at the | :47:39. | :47:43. | |
same time today. I grew up in socialist China, I | :47:44. | :47:47. | |
remember the days when we used to wear the same clothes. Allocated the | :47:48. | :47:54. | |
same housing, nobody paid tax, everyone is being given exactly the | :47:55. | :48:01. | |
same salary. That is one extreme scenario. Where China is so much of | :48:02. | :48:07. | |
it is unleashing the energy and allowing the ditcheses between human | :48:08. | :48:12. | |
beings, now if you take back extremism, I'm interested to hear | :48:13. | :48:20. | |
when you said "you mean North Korea", that is pretty much back to | :48:21. | :48:23. | |
where China was in the 1970s. Thank you very much, that is it from | :48:24. | :48:26. | |
Davos, back in London tomorrow, good night. Hello there, a real west/east | :48:27. | :49:03. | |
split to start the day on Friday. Clearer skies but dry fog in East | :49:04. | :49:07. | |
Anglia. Wet and windy weather pushing in from the west. As it | :49:08. | :49:12. | |
bumps into the warm air on Scotland snow and freezing | :49:13. | :49:13. |