28/02/2017 Newsnight


28/02/2017

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Are you going to answer any questions about the contacts of your

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associate with the Russians during the campaign? Can you guarantee no

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one in the campaign had any contact with the Russians?

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Is the media now the official opposition?

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We have an intimate inside look at a turbulent week of a complex

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No direct questions about the biggest news story by far is insane.

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And the issue does not, in a press conference? The audience is being

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told not to trust us. Ahead of the President's big speech

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to congress tonight, we'll discuss the fights he picks,

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and the victories he can achieve. Also tonight. I have to balance our

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resources against the whole of the risk.

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Is there such a thing as a low risk paedophile?

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We'll ask when - or if - rehabilitation is ever

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Inventors have deep pockets, let's make sure we hold them responsible

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for the dangers they are introducing into the world.

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In three and a half hours President Trump stands before both

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houses of the US Congress to make the biggest speech

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It's not officially a State of the Union address -

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you have to be a year in office for that, but it will be like one.

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The theme - we are told - is "the renewal of the American

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spirit" and it will be wide-ranging; lots of policy, including

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healthcare, all infused with a good deal of Trump optimism.

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It's a chance for the President to set out his stall,

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It'll be interesting to see if he uses the speech to unify -

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because his five plus weeks in office mark him as one

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of the most divisive presidents anyone can remember.

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Just today, he was on Fox and Friends blaming President Obama

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I think President Obama's behind it, because his people are certainly

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behind it, and some of the leaks possibly come from that group.

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You know, some of the leaks which are very serious leaks,

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because they're very bad in terms of national security.

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But I also understand that's politics, and in terms of him

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being behind things, that's politics, and it

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Well, he is deeply polarising, the public are divided about him.

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His approval rating at 42% remains lower than President Obama's

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first Februrary for example, and lower than George W Bush's too.

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But the same polls demonstrate the marmite factor when it

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Approval among Democrats is at 10%, among Republicans, it runs at 88.

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Trump supporters have stuck with the faith.

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Ahead of that speech, our diplomatic editor Mark Urban is here.

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What do you think the president is going to say to Congress? This is

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where he has got to start the business of governing, laying out

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some plans. A more positive vision as you said in the inaugural speech,

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the big headline items, plans to slash US corporation tax to

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stimulate the economy. To rethink the so-called Obamacare health

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package and boost defence spending by $54 billion this year. Something

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he intends to do by deep cuts in the State Department, foreign aid and

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other things. 37% cuts as reported just before we came on air is the

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plan he is working too. How's that going to go down with Congress,

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which is probably been dominated. It is but the majority in the Senate is

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Badger are just two seats and cannot be taken for granted on spending

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matters in the house either. He has not even made the speech and the

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Senate majority leader before we went on air said this is not going

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to happen. These cuts to the State Department. So before he has even

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laid out this agenda he has the Republican leader in the Senate

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pulling apart bit by bit on certain key planks of what he's trying to

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say. And always foreshadows a much bigger argument, if he makes those

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cuts in corporation tax, a $2 trillion battle and the public

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finances by 2020 and where on earth is the money going to come from.

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Fiscal conservatives are nervous, they do not mind some aspects like

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the stimulus spending especially if it is in their district, but how is

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this going to be paid for. Prepare for the battle lines to be drawn.

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It's all about whose side your on with President Trump,

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but the most striking feature of the last few weeks is who he has

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The peddlers of fake news as he would have it.

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Some say it's a deliberate distraction from bigger issues,

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but the stakes are high in that battle.

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So before we assess where the White House sits

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ahead of the speech, we'll take an inside look

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Documentary maker Olly Lambert spent a week with his camera

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in the White House, a quite turbulent week at that.

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Every president in American history has disliked the press

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What's unusual is none before this has declared war in the first week.

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I call the fake news the enemy of the people, and they are.

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We always have an adversarial relationship, and that in some cases

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We are supposed to have a thick skin.

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We are supposed to be dispassionate observers.

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We are not bringing ourselves to the table as

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We are being brought into the story and it's a

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You've got to try to cut through the clutter

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and try to focus on the

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President Trump's embattled national security

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adviser General Michael Flynn stepping down Monday night in a

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firestorm of criticism after misleading vice president

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Mike Pence and others about his conversations

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with the Russian ambassador to the United States.

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And the White House has been hit with its biggest

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The President's national security adviser, Michael

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Flynn, has had to resign amidst reports that he'd had secret contact

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with Russia before Trump took office.

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These have been very, you know, tumultuous weeks for a new

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To have a national security adviser get forced out so early on,

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to see something happen that quickly.

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Right now, this briefing room is a place you have to be.

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This is Jeff here in the briefing room.

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Michael Flynn's shock resignation draws a

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big crowd to Sean Spicer's daily press briefing.

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The challenge for the White House is to make sure that

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And that's why some of these briefings can be

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The big media question is what did the president know,

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When did the president find out that Flynn had not told the truth?

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We've been reviewing and evaluating this issue with respect to General

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Flynn on a daily basis for a few weeks.

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The president was very concerned that General Flynn had misled

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Why would the president, if he was notified 17 days ago,

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that Flynn had misled the vice president and other officials here,

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and that he was a potential threat to blackmail by the Russians,

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why would he be kept on for almost three weeks?

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Well that assumes a lot of things that are not true.

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This was an act of trust, whether or not he actually misled

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And that was ultimately what led to the president asking

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for and accepting the resignation of General Flynn.

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The briefing happens, but then there are still so many

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other questions that develop in the intervening hours

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and the press secretary's office is out that hallway,

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Two hours after the briefing, a selected group of journalists

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is invited to what's called a gaggle.

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An off-camera meeting with Sean Spicer in his office.

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So there's been an exodus out of Sean Spicer's office.

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The gaggle has revealed another twist.

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Trump had known for over two weeks that Flynn had discussed

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But Trump didn't inform his vice president Mike Pence.

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Pence had found out about it by reading the Washington Post.

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When the White House counsel knew about it?

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You cannot have your national security adviser running around

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misleading senior administration officials, especially

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Despite the best efforts of the press team, the Russia

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Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States

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Benjamin Netanyahu has arrived in Washington.

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But after Flynn's resignation, the press corps are hungry

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to question Trump on his relationship with Russia.

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The protocol of a joint press conference is that four journalists

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But it's the leaders to decide which journalist to call on.

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David Brodie, Christian broadcasting.

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For the second time this week, Trump ignores the major networks.

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Instead, he selects questions from two small

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Mother asked directly about his links with Russia. Are you going to

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answer any questions about the contact your associate had with the

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Russians during the campaign? Can you guarantee no one on your

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campaign had any contact with the Russians?

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The idea that four reporters, two domestic and two foreign,

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in two events, eight total questioners and no direct questions

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about the biggest news story by far, the biggest news story

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We have a huge story going on now on the Russians, up blockbuster story

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alleging contacts between the Trump campaign and the Russian government,

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Russian intelligence and the issue does not come up in a press

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conference! Because he's calling on friendly news reporters, it is

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amazing. You have to work hard to be able to call on to reporters who

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would not ask that question. That takes some doing. Why did you fire

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him? While the major networks feel ignored, this is a chance for

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23-year-old trade, white House correspondent for the newly formed

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conservative outlet, one America news. I asked the president what he

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thought about that story that came out in the New York Times.

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I asked the president about that phone call that...

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It's such a unique opportunity for young journalist to have,

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you know, I wouldn't trade it for the world.

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It's something that I'm extremely excited about.

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I think it gives other outlets and other viewers and other readers

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an opportunity to feel like they're connected to this

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Bringing new people in is great and helpful, they represent audiences

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that have real readers and listeners and viewers. What we do not want is

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for any administration to either hand-pick and get the question is

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they think are best to help put out a message instead of going out and

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defending their policies every day. I don't think people realise how

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small this place is, This is essentially our home,

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and it's been our home This used to be Franklin

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Roosevelt's swimming pool. I mean, it's not very

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comfortable here, there My cell phone doesn't

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work at my desk. You're there at 4am,

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you're not sleeping for a week. It's a vibrant, dynamic, a little

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strange place to be right now. The Russian crisis is threatening to

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engulf the White House and at the last minute Sean Spicer cancels

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sisterly briefing and Trump announces his first solo press

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conference as president of the United States. I got the call, he's

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having a press conference, come to the White House. When I saw the note

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is that it would happen in an hour, I raced over.

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Just another example of never a dull moment!

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I've never seen such short notice for a first conference.

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I had a sense it was going to be a pretty contentious affair. Ladies

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and gentlemen the president of the United States.

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I want to get you to clarify, because it's a very important point.

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Can you say definitively that nobody on your campaign had any

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When Trump has a story that he doesn't like,

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This is fake news put out by the media.

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Makes it much harder to make a deal with Russia.

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It was an hour and 17 minutes whether President insulted reporters

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to our faces and the public is being told not to trust us.

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I've never seen more dishonest media then, frankly,

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The public doesn't believe you people any more.

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Now, maybe I had something to do with that, I don't know.

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Story after story after story is bad. I won, I won. There is zero

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chaos. This is a fine tuned machine and the press should be ashamed of

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themselves. He's is resetting his presidency or trying, after four

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tough weeks with leaks and problems and firing. He was just trying to

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reset and that was his way of doing it. He goes in that press conference

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and suddenly he's like that Trump that goes, come at me. I'll shut you

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down, I'll insult you until you to sit down. Sit down, I understand the

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rest of your question. Quite, quite, quite. Sit down. You don't have to

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do that. I don't have to tell you what I'm going to do in North Korea

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and eventually you guys are going to get tired of asking that question.

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He's never been in a place where if he tells the lie it's going to get

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reported as a lie. This is a different kind of press corps. I

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guess he was -- it was the biggest electoral college win since Ronald

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Reagan. I was given that information. I was

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given that information but it was a very substantial victory, do you

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agree with that? OK, thank you, that's a good answer. You can push

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back and say no, we're not fake news, wield real news. At some point

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the President of the United States has to deal with reality, has to

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deal with real news. I think the only thing that's worse than fake

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news is the denial of real news. Aren't you concerned you are

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undermining the people's faith and the first Amendment, freedom of the

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press in this country when you call stories you don't like fake news?

:17:53.:17:56.

Why don't you just say it's a story I don't like? We just keep doing our

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job. Nobody ever got into becoming a reporter to be loved. If he wants to

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go after us, that's his decision. I'm not sure that's a smart,

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long-term decision for building support in the country. Four years

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to go. Yeah, I mean, you don't like to be locked in with a group called

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a bunch of liars, especially when the person doing it is the President

:18:28.:18:30.

of the United States of America, and when your job is to cover the

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President of the United States. It's hard to explain. After awhile it

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just doesn't bother you any more. You just go for your story, ask your

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questions. It is stressful and training, but I feel such pride that

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we, in the face of all this, did our very best to present the most honest

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account of what happened here in this building to our audience each

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day. Because if they don't hear it from us, I'm not sure whether they

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will know the truth. That was put together by Ollie

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Lambert. Earlier I spoke to congressman

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Tom Reed, a Republican known I asked him what he thought

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of Mr Trump's more The President has his own style,

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I have my style, but what he's bringing to the table

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is a new vision for America, for Let's talk about his relationship

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with the press, with the media. He obviously thinks

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they're out to get him. Do you agree with the way

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he's handled the press Well you know, again,

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he has his own style and we all appreciate that,

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in our different ways, but holding the press accountable

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I think is a positive thing. But at the same time,

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we need a strong, free press in America and I support free press

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and holding people accountable in elected office is something

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that we do traditionally and will continue to

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do as we go forward. I tell you what, let me ask

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you three yes/no questions I've got to see really

:20:05.:20:06.

whether you agree with the President Do you factually agree

:20:07.:20:17.

with the President when he says they make up sources in order

:20:18.:20:21.

to make up stories, fake news? Do you think that the New York Times

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makes up stories, yes or no? I think there's always

:20:25.:20:27.

a kernel of truth in each But that's why holding

:20:28.:20:31.

the press accountable, as well as the press holding

:20:32.:20:34.

the President and us accountable as elected officials,

:20:35.:20:37.

that's what the American tradition The next one, do you agree

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that the press are the enemies of the people, would you use phrase

:20:40.:20:44.

to describe the media? I think when you're talking

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about an objective press that's doing the job of journalism,

:20:48.:20:49.

that's made us proud That is a tradition that we support

:20:50.:20:51.

and has made us stronger And I'll just give you a last

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one on this very brief, this kind of quickfire round,

:20:56.:21:00.

do you agree with excluding the New York Times and CNN

:21:01.:21:02.

from the briefings, the way Did you think that

:21:03.:21:05.

was good practice? I'll let the White House answer

:21:06.:21:11.

for that, but in this day and age of 24/7 news coverage,

:21:12.:21:16.

there's not a move that isn't covered immediately

:21:17.:21:18.

by the press, and that's good. That's why I do the town halls,

:21:19.:21:21.

that's why I answer to our folks back home, because standing in front

:21:22.:21:24.

of people and being held accountable is what it is to be an elected

:21:25.:21:27.

official and I respect that and I take that responsibility

:21:28.:21:30.

very seriously. A lot of people are saying the kind

:21:31.:21:32.

of battles he picks, particularly the one with the media,

:21:33.:21:34.

is designed to distract everybody's attention away

:21:35.:21:37.

from more substantive issues, notably the issue of his

:21:38.:21:39.

relations or his staff's Do you buy that, that there

:21:40.:21:42.

is a kind of distraction I don't think it's

:21:43.:21:46.

a distraction strategy. I know that's new to a lot

:21:47.:21:49.

of people and that can be disruptive in of itself,

:21:50.:21:55.

but what he's doing, he's delivering There are so many politicians

:21:56.:21:57.

who have not done that. Do you think Congress is going to be

:21:58.:22:02.

a problem for him over Working with the President,

:22:03.:22:05.

there's going to be Obviously there's going to be that

:22:06.:22:09.

debate that Congress has always had with the presidents,

:22:10.:22:13.

over the years, but that's the process we enjoy,

:22:14.:22:15.

that's the process that's made us strong for generations and I only

:22:16.:22:19.

see that the reinforced by this OK, let's take a specific

:22:20.:22:22.

one on the relationship He is proposing to spend

:22:23.:22:26.

50-something billion You guys in Congress don't

:22:27.:22:28.

like borrowing more. He's not going to be able to find

:22:29.:22:33.

the money just from cutting environmental protection

:22:34.:22:38.

or the State Department And that's why we have a process,

:22:39.:22:39.

that's why Congress is going to be part of that process,

:22:40.:22:46.

just as the White House Going back and fourth

:22:47.:22:48.

is what the legislative process Tom Reed, Congressman Reed,

:22:49.:22:52.

thank you so much, thank you. Joining me now from New York

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is Tina Brown, former editor of, Tatler, Vanity Fair,

:22:58.:23:02.

the New Yorker to name but a few. Thank you for joining us. Do you

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think the press, as a sort of community, if you can think of it

:23:14.:23:16.

that way, do you think they gave Donald Trump a fair hearing when he

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arrived in office and won the election? I think there has been a

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huge amount of hyperventilation from the press, but I will say that I

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think they were kind of gobsmacked when he just came right out of the

:23:31.:23:35.

box and insulted them. The very first press conference at Sean

:23:36.:23:39.

Spicer held, which is normally the here we are, welcome to the new

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administration, was this sort of absolutely crazed bull running at

:23:44.:23:47.

them, telling them that they had lied about the absolutely

:23:48.:23:52.

demonstrable figures of the inauguration crowds, calling them

:23:53.:23:55.

lies. I think they were almost winded by that, to be honest. It was

:23:56.:23:59.

a staggering display of instant animosity from the other side. It's

:24:00.:24:03.

really only got worse every day afterwards. Do you think the press

:24:04.:24:08.

have, if you like, taken him seriously and taken his mission,

:24:09.:24:11.

which I think he sees to shake things up a lot, do you think

:24:12.:24:14.

they've given him enough of the benefit of the doubt on that

:24:15.:24:17.

mission? I think one of the problems is that

:24:18.:24:25.

he's so abusive and... The difficulty is everybody response to

:24:26.:24:29.

every tweet as if it is something serious to respond which I think is

:24:30.:24:34.

an enormous Tessmann mistake because they waste for freight. At the same

:24:35.:24:39.

time, Trump, I think they are foolish and away to be as shocked as

:24:40.:24:42.

they are that he's delivering on what he says he's going to do.

:24:43.:24:47.

Ultimately we're so used to Presidents coming in after campaign

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promises and saying they're going to do things and actually they don't,

:24:50.:24:55.

that Trump coming out of the box like a raging bull saying he's going

:24:56.:24:59.

ban Muslims and rescind transgender rights and all the things he's

:25:00.:25:03.

doing, people are aghast because he said he was going to do those things

:25:04.:25:08.

are now he's saying again he's going to do them. The difference now is he

:25:09.:25:12.

can't do most of them. The danger now is he will be all hat and no

:25:13.:25:17.

cattle, as they say, a guy that shoots his mouth off and says he's

:25:18.:25:20.

riding out there to change everything and he can't because he

:25:21.:25:24.

is sloppy, uninformed, poor legislative expertise and a kind of

:25:25.:25:29.

very naive idea about how government works. What he said yesterday or the

:25:30.:25:34.

other day, it turns out health care is very complicated, much more

:25:35.:25:37.

complicated than we thought. You could hear the hollow laughter

:25:38.:25:41.

echoing around Capitol Hill. Presidents have resident with health

:25:42.:25:46.

care. Look what happened to Hillary Clinton when she tried on behalf of

:25:47.:25:50.

Bill Clinton, it's a tough thing to do not easy. He thought he could

:25:51.:25:54.

come raging in and fix it. He's going to go to Congress tonight and

:25:55.:25:58.

make a speech. His next battle could be with Congress, they will go in

:25:59.:26:02.

the normal Washington Way, compromising and looking at the

:26:03.:26:05.

process as they call it an Trump will be Trump and not want to do it

:26:06.:26:09.

that way. The public, they seem at the moment to be more behind Donald

:26:10.:26:12.

Trump, his supporters have remained faithful. The public seem to prefer

:26:13.:26:18.

the president to Congress. Where is this going to go over the next two

:26:19.:26:22.

to three years? I personally think that within a few months Trump will

:26:23.:26:28.

be against Congress. I don't think the press will be the enemy, it will

:26:29.:26:34.

be people in Congress who don't pass the Mexican War bill... I think he's

:26:35.:26:38.

going to go to war with Congress very quickly and then become a kind

:26:39.:26:43.

of maverick folk hero to his base, who will feel here is the guy we

:26:44.:26:47.

elected, we gave him a mandate to do all these things and Congress is

:26:48.:26:51.

thwarting him. Then there's going to be a lot of rock and roll, because

:26:52.:26:55.

then you're going to see people losing their seats. They're going to

:26:56.:26:58.

be going to war with their own constituents. It will be very

:26:59.:27:02.

interesting to see how that shapes up. No one will disagree with that.

:27:03.:27:04.

Tina Brown, thank you. Also joining me from New York

:27:05.:27:06.

now is Ann Coulter, conservative commentator,

:27:07.:27:09.

Trump supporter, and author I wonder if I can ask you, do you

:27:10.:27:19.

think he goes out of his way to make enemies? A lot of politicians think

:27:20.:27:22.

their job is to make friends, even if they are being a bit phoney.

:27:23.:27:26.

President Trump clearly doesn't believe that?

:27:27.:27:29.

I think the positions he's taken are so opposed by both Conservative and

:27:30.:27:36.

Liberal media, the Democrat and Republican party and certainly

:27:37.:27:40.

corporate America that they will be sworn enemies no matter what he did.

:27:41.:27:45.

If you're going to come out against illegal immigration and for building

:27:46.:27:49.

a wall and protecting working-class Americans, all of the elites in

:27:50.:27:54.

America will be opposed to you. It's pretty much Trump and 65 million

:27:55.:28:00.

voters against all of the elites of Wall Street, Washington, DC,

:28:01.:28:04.

certainly of Hollywood. They want their cheap mates, the Democrats

:28:05.:28:07.

want the votes. It's his positions that made him their sworn enemy, not

:28:08.:28:13.

anything, how he speaks or anything else. We haven't spoken since way

:28:14.:28:19.

before the election. You framed it there as the elite against the

:28:20.:28:22.

working people of the United States. We haven't had a chance to talk to

:28:23.:28:26.

you. There are a lot of billionaires and Goldman Sachs blokes employed in

:28:27.:28:29.

the Donald Trump administration. What's going on there? Well, a lot

:28:30.:28:35.

of people have worked for Goldman Sachs. The ones I guess you're

:28:36.:28:38.

talking about aren't working there now. Even before Trump... What are

:28:39.:28:44.

you talking about, they are the elite, aren't they? That are some

:28:45.:28:49.

elite who support Raw but by and large they are against them. There

:28:50.:28:53.

are a few senators and good congressman but by and large out of

:28:54.:28:57.

hundreds of members they are with the lobbyists, with Chamber of

:28:58.:29:02.

Commerce and the prediction of the last guess, that Trump would go to

:29:03.:29:05.

war with Republicans in Congress, she's a little late on that, he's

:29:06.:29:10.

gone to war with them. Donald Trump famously refused to endorse the

:29:11.:29:14.

Speaker of the house during the election, Tom Ryan. Paul Ryan,

:29:15.:29:21.

sorry. Where is it going to go? We are denied they're not going to cut

:29:22.:29:28.

the Department state aid budget as much as they can to fund military

:29:29.:29:33.

spending, this is a movable object needs irresistible force, isn't it?

:29:34.:29:39.

No, I think the people are with Trump. Part of the reason he got

:29:40.:29:43.

elected was because we are sick of this do nothing Republicans in

:29:44.:29:46.

Congress. Congress was elected as well. Congress was elected, too.

:29:47.:29:52.

They've got their row mandate, their legitimate as well, aren't they? I'm

:29:53.:29:56.

not saying they're not legitimate and saying they're not popular.

:29:57.:30:04.

That's why someone who was so out of politics was just made president of

:30:05.:30:08.

the United States. You have two choices, generally when someone is

:30:09.:30:12.

running for Senate, Democrat or Republican. I spent the last few

:30:13.:30:14.

election cycles haranguing Republican voters to vote for people

:30:15.:30:20.

like Mitch McConnell, I don't particularly like him either but

:30:21.:30:23.

he's better than a Democrat. OK, you take that choice but I think you

:30:24.:30:27.

probably will see a lot more drama Republicans. It takes a while for

:30:28.:30:32.

this turnover. It's like the House of Lords, Congress, it's very hard

:30:33.:30:35.

to get rid of incumbents but they aren't very popular with the people.

:30:36.:30:41.

Let me ask you about the press. You did not see art inside view of the

:30:42.:30:48.

relationship between the White House and the press, do you think it is

:30:49.:30:52.

legitimate for US newspapers with millions of readers to ask questions

:30:53.:30:56.

about the relationship between the Trump team and the Russians? Or just

:30:57.:31:01.

false narrative and getting in the way? Like so much else, the elements

:31:02.:31:07.

of the media that are asking, the media is large, and a lot of that is

:31:08.:31:13.

just pumping out fake blues at a mile a minute and this nonsense over

:31:14.:31:17.

Russia, it is strange coming from someone like me who was on the side

:31:18.:31:22.

of Reagan during the Cold War to have these modern day John Birch

:31:23.:31:27.

types looking for a Russian underneath every bad. But I think it

:31:28.:31:32.

is worth pointing out that Trump is not at war with the media but at war

:31:33.:31:35.

with the fake news coming from the media. I believe everyone has always

:31:36.:31:40.

accepted you cannot have a democracy if the media do not print the truth.

:31:41.:31:44.

And this media at least a lot of it, do not. But the New York Times, CNN,

:31:45.:31:52.

ABC, from the modern was a king Boz to the Russian news, to this crazy

:31:53.:31:56.

thing about Sweden. They falsely accused him of claiming there was a

:31:57.:32:04.

terrorist attack in Sweden. And knocking a disabled reporter. We

:32:05.:32:07.

could talk all day about this. Thank you so much.

:32:08.:32:09.

When it comes to criminal justice, there are two reasonable

:32:10.:32:12.

sounding propositions, that are in conflict with each

:32:13.:32:14.

other: One says all significant crimes should be properly

:32:15.:32:16.

The other says resources should be focussed on the most serious crimes

:32:17.:32:21.

The police have to weigh up these two every day -

:32:22.:32:26.

but one chief constable made explicit the tensions between them

:32:27.:32:29.

with respect to crimes of abuse of children -

:32:30.:32:31.

suggesting that those who view indecent images but go no further

:32:32.:32:33.

should not be jailed but rehabilitated.

:32:34.:32:39.

This does not mean that the offender doesn't get arrested,

:32:40.:32:42.

because I would recommend they absolutely do,

:32:43.:32:43.

but there is, I believe, a space here for the effective

:32:44.:32:46.

The fact that organisations like Lucy Faithfull Foundation,

:32:47.:32:53.

with programmes they have, are able to demonstrate

:32:54.:32:55.

they have a positive impact upon men who have unhealthy thoughts around

:32:56.:32:58.

children, and this is around saying we need to target our resources

:32:59.:33:05.

against those people who are intent in committing the most

:33:06.:33:08.

Well, Chief Constable Bailey who you heard there is the head

:33:09.:33:15.

of Operation Hydrant, which is investigating multiple

:33:16.:33:20.

allegations of historic sexual abuse across the UK.

:33:21.:33:22.

His comments have prompted quite a debate.

:33:23.:33:24.

So is there such a thing as a low risk paedophile?

:33:25.:33:26.

Jim Gamble is a senior police officer, and was

:33:27.:33:29.

the founding Chief Executive of the Child Exploitation

:33:30.:33:30.

He now serves on a number of local authority child safeguarding boards.

:33:31.:33:40.

Dr Heather Wood is a Consultant Adult Psychotherapist -

:33:41.:33:42.

at the Portman Clinic in London, which is part of the Tavistock

:33:43.:33:45.

Thank you for joining us. Thinking about the numbers, to have any idea

:33:46.:33:56.

what the numbers are in this category of people who look at

:33:57.:34:01.

indecent images but go no further? I do not think anyone knows and that

:34:02.:34:04.

is part of the problem. We from exercises carried out using software

:34:05.:34:13.

in 2012, CEOP estimated 60, 70,000 people at any one time could be

:34:14.:34:18.

downloading images. Last November it was estimated at up to 100000 and

:34:19.:34:22.

that figure is extrapolated aboard spot much of it based on a guess.

:34:23.:34:28.

The figures of 100,000 are based on software that monitors particular

:34:29.:34:32.

image is being downloaded. I have heard much higher figures, like half

:34:33.:34:36.

a million plus or something like that. There are figures were the

:34:37.:34:42.

NSPCC for example in some combined studies extrapolate those figures

:34:43.:34:47.

out to 750,000. But the bottom line is it is how we deter people. I just

:34:48.:34:53.

want to know how many weird talking about because in terms of

:34:54.:34:56.

practicality of sending people to Jane -- to jail. Heather, do you

:34:57.:35:04.

have rates of paedophilia, prevalence rates, you know what the

:35:05.:35:09.

numbers are? We do not know what the percentages are. If we went through

:35:10.:35:16.

a policy of rehabilitation, how successful is that, I mean...?

:35:17.:35:25.

Paedophilia essentially is a mental health diagnosis so we have to make

:35:26.:35:30.

a distinction between people who offend against children, which is

:35:31.:35:33.

the business of the criminal justice system, and people who have a

:35:34.:35:38.

paedophilic sexual interest around children so some of the people who

:35:39.:35:41.

offend against children are not actually consistently paedophilic in

:35:42.:35:46.

their sexual orientation. There are some people who are paedophilic who

:35:47.:35:51.

never enact with children. And I think we now know as a result of the

:35:52.:35:55.

behaviour we have observed in relation to the intranet, there are

:35:56.:36:01.

some people who have made adult to adult intimate relationships but

:36:02.:36:04.

actually under the influence of immersion in internet sex, actually

:36:05.:36:10.

break down to express a more explicitly paedophilic sexual

:36:11.:36:12.

interest. So I think these are different groups of people. Would

:36:13.:36:16.

you accept that there are these categories? I do not because when it

:36:17.:36:22.

comes to managing risk, that has not been my experience. So we find

:36:23.:36:27.

someone who goes online to view images of children, the hypothesis

:36:28.:36:31.

is that those looking at low level images represent perhaps a lower

:36:32.:36:34.

risk but that has not been my experience. I've seen individuals

:36:35.:36:39.

looking at the lowest form of image who have committed the most

:36:40.:36:43.

horrendous crimes. And I can give you examples of those individuals.

:36:44.:36:48.

If we're going to base the risk management regime on that basis then

:36:49.:36:52.

you are playing the lottery with the lives of children. Is that fair?

:36:53.:36:57.

Yes, I agree on this point. You cannot tell the difference on the

:36:58.:37:01.

basis of the nature of the images people are looking at. So we have

:37:02.:37:06.

seen people who for example can get sexually aroused by looking at

:37:07.:37:10.

Mothercare catalogue. It does not actually differentiate between high

:37:11.:37:13.

and low-level offenders but there are criteria. Can you extinguish

:37:14.:37:20.

between high and low risk offenders? I think both from research evidence

:37:21.:37:24.

and from clinical experience, we're starting to develop an awareness of

:37:25.:37:28.

what the criteria are. And is that good enough then for us to say you

:37:29.:37:33.

are low risk, so we will treat you differently from someone who we

:37:34.:37:37.

think is high risk. You think it is question mark yes, and I think

:37:38.:37:42.

researchers are refining reliable tools like now. Have you any idea

:37:43.:37:47.

what the kind of error rate is, and we probably have to accept there are

:37:48.:37:51.

always some risks in every case, but you know what the error rate is if

:37:52.:37:56.

you think this person is not likely to offend against a child, are you

:37:57.:38:03.

wrong 91% of the time, how much? I do not know. In the study that

:38:04.:38:09.

Heather took part in herself, looking at 20 offenders over a

:38:10.:38:13.

10-year period of time, one who dropped out went on to reoffend but

:38:14.:38:17.

that is just one who was caught reoffending so the issue, you're

:38:18.:38:20.

talking about the best liars in the world. Simon is delivering the wrong

:38:21.:38:25.

message to the wrong people at the wrong time. Parents and carers are

:38:26.:38:28.

anxious enough about this and to talk about it in blather terms about

:38:29.:38:32.

counselling is a mistake. The method should be to the government to say

:38:33.:38:38.

there are too many offenders, so invest... You cannot put another

:38:39.:38:43.

100,000 people in jail. We convicted 35,000 people in 2012 for drunk

:38:44.:38:50.

driving. Convicted and that means we investigated a lot more so we are

:38:51.:38:52.

being seduced into a position of saying that the numbers are too

:38:53.:38:56.

large but they're not. If we were talking about terrorism we would be

:38:57.:39:00.

investing resources, assets and money into getting better at this.

:39:01.:39:05.

We need to identify this. And the child sex abuse enquiry is taking

:39:06.:39:09.

evidence and those people currently going to bed demented tonight by the

:39:10.:39:12.

legacy of what happened in the past could have been better protected if

:39:13.:39:15.

we had taken the numbers more seriously in days gone by. And we

:39:16.:39:20.

cannot have this. We need to leave it there, thank you.

:39:21.:39:22.

And tonight, American philosopher Daniel Dennett offers us an opinion.

:39:23.:39:26.

He is the author of among other works, Consciousness Explained;

:39:27.:39:29.

he specialises in the philosophy of mind; his latest book

:39:30.:39:31.

And he has views on artificial intelligence.

:39:32.:39:36.

They're making smart tools, not colleagues.

:39:37.:39:43.

Artificial intelligence is now harnessing algorithms that

:39:44.:39:47.

mindlessly sift through gigantic datasets, yielding brilliant

:39:48.:39:50.

After several dormant decades AI is blooming again and computers

:39:51.:39:58.

They're already better than the experts in many

:39:59.:40:03.

Various visionaries are predicting that super intelligent

:40:04.:40:08.

agents are inevitable - balderdash!

:40:09.:40:12.

While I agree that it's possible in principle to make a super

:40:13.:40:15.

intelligent artificial agent smarter than any person, don't

:40:16.:40:17.

IBM's duly famous Watson, the Jeopardy quiz show winner,

:40:18.:40:25.

could in principle be enlarged into an agent worth befriending,

:40:26.:40:30.

say, but the project would cost maybe a million times more

:40:31.:40:33.

than making Watson in the first place, and who would pay for it?

:40:34.:40:37.

What we need is smart tools, not artificial colleagues,

:40:38.:40:40.

and that's all we're going to get in the foreseeable future.

:40:41.:40:43.

The biggest and truly imminent danger is overestimating

:40:44.:40:47.

the comprehension of these tools and ceding moral authority to them.

:40:48.:40:52.

People tend to overestimate the comprehension of any AI that

:40:53.:40:55.

We must break this congenial habit and train users

:40:56.:41:02.

to treat the tool as a tool for which they are responsible.

:41:03.:41:05.

First, banish cutesy human touches which are, to put it

:41:06.:41:07.

Second, users should be licensed and bonded.

:41:08.:41:14.

The insurance companies would then insist that manufacturers divulge

:41:15.:41:18.

any known blindspots or weaknesses, the same way pharmaceutical

:41:19.:41:21.

companies must now real off all the known side-effects

:41:22.:41:23.

AI inventors have deep pockets, let's make sure we hold them

:41:24.:41:29.

responsible for the dangers they're introducing into the world.

:41:30.:41:43.

That's it for today, which is of course Pancake Day.

:41:44.:41:46.

So courtesy of Pathe, we leave you at the Old Kent Road

:41:47.:41:49.

pancake race, which was held in February 1963, just three

:41:50.:41:51.

weeks before the Beatles kicked off the modern era.

:41:52.:41:53.

Captain Courage, a name of note in thirsty London,

:41:54.:41:59.

There's 350 yards to go, that's a furlong and a half with 20

:42:00.:42:04.

Right from the beginning out in front is Grace Walsh,

:42:05.:42:09.

hot favourite, mother of two, winner last year.

:42:10.:42:15.

Nobody can catch Grace, she's going strong as she bursts the tape.

:42:16.:42:23.

Champagne for the winner and a prize of ?10.

:42:24.:42:27.

Now, one last toss of the pancakes, including one that got away.

:42:28.:42:45.

Good evening. We're heading into the month of March

:42:46.:42:46.

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