Browse content similar to 13/03/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Do you worry that us leaving the EU would trigger a second referendum in | :00:10. | :00:14. | |
Scotland for independence? There is a concern. Look, I mean... It's all | :00:15. | :00:17. | |
panning out just like he said. They're not calling | :00:18. | :00:21. | |
it project fear now. I will now take the steps necessary | :00:22. | :00:24. | |
to make sure that Scotland will have a choice at the end of this process, | :00:25. | :00:28. | |
a choice of whether to follow the UK to a hard Brexit or to become | :00:29. | :00:32. | |
an independent country. As we come on air the Article | :00:33. | :00:35. | |
50 bill is completing We'll discuss what the impact | :00:36. | :00:37. | |
will be on the Union. Also tonight, David Davis | :00:38. | :00:44. | |
is the minister for walking this I remember one of the Cameroons once | :00:45. | :00:47. | |
saying to me in exasperation that he's the only person he knows | :00:48. | :00:53. | |
who didn't go to Eton but has And listen to the childhood trauma | :00:54. | :00:58. | |
that inspired 4-3-2-1, the first novel in seven years | :00:59. | :01:06. | |
from Paul Auster. I'd never seen a dead person, | :01:07. | :01:10. | |
so I crawled beside him and I pulled him into the meadow, | :01:11. | :01:14. | |
and that was the moment when I understood that anything can | :01:15. | :01:17. | |
happen to anybody at any time. "Don't tie the Prime Minister's | :01:18. | :01:31. | |
hands," warned her Brexit As we go on air tonight, | :01:32. | :01:33. | |
Britain's Parliament has agreed to hand Theresa May a clean | :01:34. | :01:38. | |
Brexit Bill, creating a significant piece of constitutional | :01:39. | :01:41. | |
history as it does so. Earlier this evening, | :01:42. | :01:45. | |
the Commons threw out two amendments from the upper House, | :01:46. | :01:47. | |
paving the way for In the last few minutes, the Lords | :01:48. | :01:49. | |
have rejected their own amendments Tonight's momentous vote | :01:50. | :01:54. | |
was intended to be the starting gun, allowing the Prime Minister | :01:55. | :02:00. | |
to trigger Article 50. But in the event, Scotland's First | :02:01. | :02:03. | |
Minister fired her own, several hours earlier | :02:04. | :02:06. | |
and to the surprise of many. In an audacious power grab, | :02:07. | :02:09. | |
Ms Sturgeon seized the narrative laying out her plans for a second | :02:10. | :02:12. | |
referendum on Scottish Independence, explaining why the breaking up | :02:13. | :02:17. | |
of one union, may well lead We are live tonight in Parliament | :02:18. | :02:21. | |
and in Edinburgh with the latest. First to our political | :02:22. | :02:26. | |
editor, Nick Watt. What's been happening there in the | :02:27. | :02:31. | |
last ten minutes, talk us through it. One of Margaret Thatcher's | :02:32. | :02:37. | |
favourite Cabinet ministers has said it is irrevokable. As you said, the | :02:38. | :02:42. | |
Brexit bill has completed its final Parliamentary stages. The House of | :02:43. | :02:46. | |
Lords threw in the towel, after there was a minuscule rebellion in | :02:47. | :02:49. | |
the House of Commons. That meant that bill no longer has amendments | :02:50. | :02:53. | |
on guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens and amendments saying that | :02:54. | :02:57. | |
there should be a meaningful vote in this place at the end of the | :02:58. | :03:01. | |
process. What that means is that Theresa May now can trigger Article | :03:02. | :03:05. | |
50 and of particular significance to the Prime Minister, it means that | :03:06. | :03:10. | |
she has a clean bill, no amendments and Number Ten had said if there | :03:11. | :03:14. | |
were any changes to that bill, that could weaken the UK's negotiating | :03:15. | :03:19. | |
hand and be exploited by the EU in those Article 50 negotiations. The | :03:20. | :03:23. | |
only final stage now is that the Queen has to give this bill Royal | :03:24. | :03:28. | |
Assent, which naturally she will do in Norman French. I'm told there's | :03:29. | :03:33. | |
going to be no rush to ask the Queen to do that. When Theresa May stands | :03:34. | :03:36. | |
up here tomorrow at 12. 30pm, to give her statement on last week's | :03:37. | :03:40. | |
European Council, we may find that the bill will not have Royal Assent | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
by that stage. We'll be back there shortly. Thanks very much. | :03:46. | :03:47. | |
Well, what are the calculations on each side? | :03:48. | :03:49. | |
And how would that second referendum work in practice? | :03:50. | :03:51. | |
Chris Cook has been assessing who holds the stronger hand | :03:52. | :03:54. | |
between Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon. | :03:55. | :04:00. | |
The SNP's manifesto contained a pledge: | :04:01. | :04:04. | |
if Britain voted to leave the European Union, Scots should | :04:05. | :04:07. | |
And today, we learned the Scottish Parliament will get a vote | :04:08. | :04:13. | |
to request permission for a fresh referendum next week. | :04:14. | :04:16. | |
If Scotland is to have a real choice, | :04:17. | :04:21. | |
when the terms of Brexit are known but before it is too late | :04:22. | :04:25. | |
to choose our own course, then that choice must be offered | :04:26. | :04:28. | |
between the autumn of next year, 2018, and the spring of 2019. | :04:29. | :04:33. | |
The evidence is that the Scottish people, the majority of the Scottish | :04:34. | :04:36. | |
people, do not want a second independent referendum, so instead | :04:37. | :04:41. | |
of playing politics with the future of our country, the Scottish | :04:42. | :04:45. | |
Government should focus on delivering good Government and | :04:46. | :04:49. | |
public services for the people of Scotland. | :04:50. | :04:52. | |
Some independence supporters tell pollsters they don't | :04:53. | :04:54. | |
want a second vote until they can be sure of a win. | :04:55. | :04:57. | |
At the moment, they don't have a steady lead. | :04:58. | :05:00. | |
In January 2016, the Unionists have reached a | :05:01. | :05:05. | |
Just after the Brexit referendum, the independence | :05:06. | :05:10. | |
movement took a 5% lead, but the latest | :05:11. | :05:12. | |
averages imply things are | :05:13. | :05:20. | |
neck and neck, a tiny 1% Unionist lead. | :05:21. | :05:23. | |
It's all in the balance, with 10% of Scots saying they are | :05:24. | :05:26. | |
Downing Street has two approve a referendum, and while the | :05:27. | :05:29. | |
Government sounds opposed to doing so, it will be hard to resist. | :05:30. | :05:32. | |
If they do approve one, though, when will it happen? | :05:33. | :05:35. | |
The options really fall into three boxes. | :05:36. | :05:37. | |
The first is they would have a referendum before | :05:38. | :05:39. | |
That's really what the Scottish National Party wants. | :05:40. | :05:49. | |
The second option is to have won after 2021. | :05:50. | :05:51. | |
That's what the Government want, because that would force the SNP to | :05:52. | :05:54. | |
win another Holyrood election before they | :05:55. | :05:56. | |
were allowed to call an independence referendum. | :05:57. | :05:58. | |
So, the likeliest outcome is probably the | :05:59. | :06:00. | |
third box, somewhere between the two, 2019-2021. | :06:01. | :06:05. | |
We know from different election studies that | :06:06. | :06:08. | |
attitudes to risk were a big factor in the first independence | :06:09. | :06:11. | |
referendum, and the people who were very willing | :06:12. | :06:18. | |
to take big risks in their lives for about 20 percentage | :06:19. | :06:20. | |
points more likely to vote for independence. | :06:21. | :06:22. | |
So what the SNP will want to do is either make | :06:23. | :06:25. | |
independence look less risky and appeal to those who are a bit more | :06:26. | :06:29. | |
risk averse or make staying in look more risky, so the question then | :06:30. | :06:34. | |
becomes, when over the next two years is staying in the UK going to | :06:35. | :06:37. | |
Independence campaigners are alive to riskiness as a factor. | :06:38. | :06:45. | |
There is a deficit obviously within Scotland and within the UK. | :06:46. | :06:48. | |
It has picked up a bit, but there will be worries that oil within | :06:49. | :06:57. | |
the Scottish economy still is a huge player, despite the fact that the | :06:58. | :07:00. | |
growth commission set up by the Scottish Government is trying to | :07:01. | :07:03. | |
project a future economic forecast for Scotland that doesn't even | :07:04. | :07:06. | |
include oil so that it can look at the underlying long-term | :07:07. | :07:09. | |
The Unionists have trouble too, not least who will lead them. | :07:10. | :07:15. | |
Modern politics is much more about the story politicians tell | :07:16. | :07:20. | |
rather than spreadsheets, and defending the union, painting a | :07:21. | :07:24. | |
positive vision of the union was difficult a few years ago, but it's | :07:25. | :07:28. | |
now considerably harder, obviously because of Brexit. | :07:29. | :07:36. | |
A caricatured view of the UK propagated by a lot of nationalists | :07:37. | :07:44. | |
is that it is run by a right-wing Tory cabals who don't | :07:45. | :07:47. | |
like immigrants and want to come out of the EU has of course more or less | :07:48. | :07:51. | |
There are lots of moving Brexit parts here too. | :07:52. | :07:54. | |
Whether we manage to keep an open border | :07:55. | :07:56. | |
between Northern Ireland and the Republic, for example. | :07:57. | :07:58. | |
Fears of a hard border between England and | :07:59. | :08:00. | |
Scotland were a major issue at the polls last time around. | :08:01. | :08:03. | |
All that's certain for now is that Britain | :08:04. | :08:06. | |
changed fundamentally on the 23rd of June last year. | :08:07. | :08:11. | |
We will come back to all things Scotland in a second. | :08:12. | :08:18. | |
Fresh from that significant Lord's vote we caught up with Peter | :08:19. | :08:21. | |
Mandelson, who joins us now. Thanks very much. You stuck it out through | :08:22. | :08:25. | |
both the amendments. Do you feel the other Lord's let you down? No. It | :08:26. | :08:29. | |
was a judgment for them. But for me, the issue of the rights of EU | :08:30. | :08:35. | |
nationals is a matter of conscience. I think it was right to stick to | :08:36. | :08:39. | |
that principle. I also believe that at the end of this negotiation, | :08:40. | :08:45. | |
Parliament should have the right to express a view, a meaningful view, | :08:46. | :08:49. | |
on what the outcome of that negotiation will mean for our | :08:50. | :08:54. | |
economy, our future prosperity and livelihoods in this country. That's | :08:55. | :08:57. | |
why I voted to insist on both amendments. What does meaningful | :08:58. | :09:01. | |
mean now it's been defeated? What happens now? Now it's been defeated, | :09:02. | :09:06. | |
to all intents and purposes, although people will say that there | :09:07. | :09:12. | |
are many procedural avenues that Parliament can pursue, to express | :09:13. | :09:17. | |
its view, I think that a very clear signal, I'm afraid, has been given | :09:18. | :09:21. | |
tonight that the Government can do as it wishes. I greatly regret that. | :09:22. | :09:28. | |
Because the course on which the Government is presently embarked are | :09:29. | :09:34. | |
hard and extreme, a harsh Brexit would involve considerable economic | :09:35. | :09:38. | |
pain, loss of growth, a threat to livelihoods in this country. I think | :09:39. | :09:42. | |
people are right to stand up and say that whilst they respect the result | :09:43. | :09:48. | |
of the referendum, they nonetheless oppose that sort of hard Brexit. I | :09:49. | :09:52. | |
hope that people increasingly will organise to make their voices heard. | :09:53. | :09:56. | |
You're confusingly on the same page as Nicola Sturgeon now with that | :09:57. | :10:01. | |
line. With her laying out of a time table now for a second referendum, | :10:02. | :10:05. | |
would you like to see the UK Government allow that to go forward? | :10:06. | :10:10. | |
Well, what I would like to do is in her letter to the European Union, | :10:11. | :10:14. | |
triggering Article 50, let's take this one stage at a time, I would | :10:15. | :10:21. | |
like to see the Government take a much more constructive approach than | :10:22. | :10:25. | |
the one they've hitherto signalled. I think it's very important that we | :10:26. | :10:32. | |
negotiate to end up only one step away from the single market, so that | :10:33. | :10:36. | |
we continue to maximise our trade in it, to much pies the prospects for | :10:37. | :10:43. | |
growth, for prosperity, for investment in jobs in the country. I | :10:44. | :10:46. | |
regret right from the beginning the Government has ruled out any | :10:47. | :10:51. | |
participation by Britain in the single market and has indicated that | :10:52. | :10:55. | |
we should leave the customs union as well. That is a direct threat to | :10:56. | :10:59. | |
jobs and prosperity in our country. If I can just press you though on | :11:00. | :11:04. | |
Scotland. Would you like to see the PM allow that second ref to go | :11:05. | :11:07. | |
ahead? Would you campaign for the union and would you like to see | :11:08. | :11:10. | |
Jeremy Corbyn campaign for the union? Well, the first referendum in | :11:11. | :11:16. | |
Scotland showed, in my view, a decisive result. That was for | :11:17. | :11:20. | |
Scotland to stay in the United Kingdom. But two things have changed | :11:21. | :11:26. | |
since then. One is the referendum on EU membership in which Scotland | :11:27. | :11:31. | |
clearly voted by an overwhelming majority to stay inside the European | :11:32. | :11:37. | |
Union. And secondly, the Government has demonstrated that it is | :11:38. | :11:42. | |
absolutely determined to head for a hard Brexit, which will maximise the | :11:43. | :11:47. | |
economic pain and costs for Scotland as well as the rest of the United | :11:48. | :11:54. | |
Kingdom. I rather fear that strengthens the case for a second | :11:55. | :11:57. | |
referendum in Scotland. I regret that. Because I think, although the | :11:58. | :12:02. | |
case is not made for independence, I'm afraid we have to accept that | :12:03. | :12:06. | |
the Government's determination to inflict a hard Brexit on Scotland | :12:07. | :12:10. | |
does strengthen the argument of those who want to revisit the | :12:11. | :12:14. | |
original question. OK, thanks very much indeed. Sarah Smith joins us | :12:15. | :12:21. | |
from Edinburgh. Can you just pick up on that point, what choice can | :12:22. | :12:25. | |
Nicola Sturgeon actually offer people in Scotland this time round, | :12:26. | :12:30. | |
in terms of EU membership? Well, Scotland's place in the European | :12:31. | :12:34. | |
Union, if it were to become an independent country, is certainly | :12:35. | :12:39. | |
not guaranteed. EU officials recently have been reiterating that | :12:40. | :12:41. | |
an independent Scotland would have to apply again for membership. But | :12:42. | :12:47. | |
the SNP politicians, ever since the EU referendum have been travelling | :12:48. | :12:51. | |
around Europe, talking to as many EU politicians as they can. They say | :12:52. | :12:55. | |
they are getting a murch, much more sympathetic hearing since the UK | :12:56. | :12:59. | |
voted to leave the EU, than they did when they were talking to people | :13:00. | :13:02. | |
before the 2014 independence referendum. You'll remember back | :13:03. | :13:07. | |
then, people campaigning for the union said an independent Scotland | :13:08. | :13:09. | |
wouldn't be able to join the European Union. They told Scottish | :13:10. | :13:12. | |
voters, if you want to stay in the EU you have to vote to stay in the | :13:13. | :13:17. | |
UK. Well that has now become a major argument for the SNP, saying that's | :13:18. | :13:20. | |
the reason why you can't trust the union and in fact, if you want to | :13:21. | :13:26. | |
stay in the EU, your only hope is in an independent Scotland, who they | :13:27. | :13:28. | |
think would have a much better chance now of getting EU membership | :13:29. | :13:32. | |
and that's one reason why Nicola Sturgeon is going to try to insist | :13:33. | :13:37. | |
that a referendum is held before the UK leaves the EU, because she thinks | :13:38. | :13:40. | |
that would make that much easier for Scotland to get in much quicker and | :13:41. | :13:43. | |
not have a lengthy period outside the European Union. Your sense, | :13:44. | :13:48. | |
briefly, is there is nothing that would change her mind at this point, | :13:49. | :13:54. | |
aside from membership of the single market for Scotland? She said if the | :13:55. | :13:57. | |
UK Government come and talk about the compromise proposals Nicola | :13:58. | :14:01. | |
Sturgeon put forward that would allow Scotland to stay in the | :14:02. | :14:05. | |
European Economic Area and stay in the UK, she's prepared to talk about | :14:06. | :14:12. | |
that. That seems extremely unlikely. Short of that happening, she wants | :14:13. | :14:13. | |
another independence referendum. of the SNP, and I asked him | :14:14. | :14:18. | |
what the SNP would do if the UK Government tried | :14:19. | :14:23. | |
to block a referendum. Is the UK Government a functioning | :14:24. | :14:35. | |
democracy? I cannot see how a democratically elected UK Government | :14:36. | :14:38. | |
will say to a democratically elected Scottish Government, elected on a | :14:39. | :14:41. | |
mandate to hold a referendum, where the governing party has more votes | :14:42. | :14:47. | |
than the Labour Party and conservatives combined, where the | :14:48. | :14:51. | |
SNP holds all the Scottish seats in Westminster bar three, and after 62% | :14:52. | :14:57. | |
of people in Scotland voted to remain, one is not going to allow a | :14:58. | :15:02. | |
democratic vote? Is it the 21st or what? It does not sound like you | :15:03. | :15:08. | |
have accounted for quite a lot of people who have voted for Brexit. I | :15:09. | :15:13. | |
think of the prospect is a Scottish Government and parliament in charge | :15:14. | :15:16. | |
of all the powers, I think people will view it in a different context | :15:17. | :15:21. | |
and the Brexit referendum, where people were promised they would be | :15:22. | :15:24. | |
able to take back control, but as we have learned in recent weeks, there | :15:25. | :15:28. | |
is no prospect of the UK Government passing on all the powers from | :15:29. | :15:32. | |
Brussels to Holyrood. They were sold a pup on that, as they were on ?350 | :15:33. | :15:38. | |
million to the National Health Service every week. I think people | :15:39. | :15:44. | |
who decided to protest in the Brexit referendum, when given the chance to | :15:45. | :15:47. | |
vote for Scotland to have all the relevant powers and... Hold on, what | :15:48. | :15:59. | |
about the people who voted yes to independence and for Brexit in the | :16:00. | :16:02. | |
referendum? That could work against you substantially. The polls have | :16:03. | :16:08. | |
shown that support for independence is up compared to 2014, and given | :16:09. | :16:12. | |
that we started in that boat on a base of 28%, I will take starting | :16:13. | :16:18. | |
50-50 as a good base camp for the referendum that is coming in the | :16:19. | :16:22. | |
next two years. This was hugely divisive last time round, and people | :16:23. | :16:27. | |
are only just starting to repair the wounds. Now they have to look at | :16:28. | :16:31. | |
years more uncertainty and antagonism from a nation that just | :16:32. | :16:37. | |
once you to get on and rule. The biggest uncertainty people in | :16:38. | :16:40. | |
Scotland faces being taken out of the EU against the will of the | :16:41. | :16:44. | |
people. In a normal democracy, you vote for what happens. In 2014, | :16:45. | :16:49. | |
people were told to vote against Scottish independence to protect | :16:50. | :16:54. | |
their place in Europe, and many did, in good faith, and then work out | :16:55. | :16:58. | |
voted two years later in a Brexit referendum. It could look | :16:59. | :17:03. | |
opportunistic for you. We have two options. One, to sit in the back of | :17:04. | :17:08. | |
the Tory Brexit busts, shut up, say nothing and disregard the 62% of | :17:09. | :17:13. | |
voters who voted to remain and see the Prime Minister drive us off a | :17:14. | :17:17. | |
Brexit cliff, or we have the opportunity of the people of | :17:18. | :17:20. | |
Scotland having the power in their hands in a referendum about our | :17:21. | :17:24. | |
country's future. I know what I would take. What power do they have? | :17:25. | :17:29. | |
You cannot go promising Scotland it will remain in the EU. What power | :17:30. | :17:35. | |
argue giving them? The power of the people to decide to be part of a | :17:36. | :17:39. | |
Brexit written or whether they are going to be a southern Scotland. I | :17:40. | :17:43. | |
do not believe in a month of Sundays that the people of Scotland will | :17:44. | :17:47. | |
vote for the same kind of harebrained Brexit plan we have seen | :17:48. | :17:51. | |
the UK Government propose. I think the people of Scotland will choose a | :17:52. | :17:55. | |
different course, much more in line with the politics of the European | :17:56. | :18:00. | |
continent, where we are prepared to work together, share sovereignty and | :18:01. | :18:03. | |
citizenship rights and not have them taken away by a right-wing Tory | :18:04. | :18:07. | |
Government which seems intent on the most extreme form of Brexit. We are | :18:08. | :18:14. | |
long way off, clearly, but there will be people looking at your party | :18:15. | :18:19. | |
tonight and saying, look, to lose one could be considered misfortune, | :18:20. | :18:24. | |
but you lose two, when push comes to shove, that would have to spell the | :18:25. | :18:28. | |
end of your party, wouldn't it? We have no intention of losing. Thank | :18:29. | :18:30. | |
you. Joining me now Gisela Stuart | :18:31. | :18:33. | |
and Nadhim Zahawi - both unionists - who fought to keep Scotland | :18:34. | :18:36. | |
in the UK and both Brexiteers, but Nice to have you here. This is a | :18:37. | :18:47. | |
massive day for Brexit, for Brexiteers, for a campaigner like | :18:48. | :18:54. | |
you. Yes, and the real headline is that the UK, which voted to leave | :18:55. | :18:59. | |
the EU on the 23rd of June, today in a Parliamentary process gave the | :19:00. | :19:01. | |
Prime Minister the authority to trigger that. I think it -- I think | :19:02. | :19:07. | |
what we see in terms of Scotland is a very interesting attempt at | :19:08. | :19:12. | |
grabbing the headlines, but this was a nationwide referendum, and the | :19:13. | :19:18. | |
United Kingdom decided to leave, and you just can't have one part of it | :19:19. | :19:23. | |
deciding on a retrospective change to the rules. It is interesting that | :19:24. | :19:28. | |
you start by talking about the United Kingdom. Nadhim, if you were | :19:29. | :19:32. | |
told in June that the result of Brexit would trigger a second | :19:33. | :19:36. | |
Scottish referendum, something you tried so hard to stop, would you go | :19:37. | :19:42. | |
for it again? Well, what you have to understand about today with Nicola | :19:43. | :19:46. | |
Sturgeon, the imagery looked stateswoman like, but the words were | :19:47. | :19:50. | |
nowhere near it. It was being opportunistic of the worst kind. It | :19:51. | :19:55. | |
makes Ruth Davidson looked like the only serious heavyweight politician | :19:56. | :19:58. | |
in Scotland who cares about the well-being of all of the Scottish | :19:59. | :20:02. | |
people. Remember, 40% of Scottish people actually voted for Brexit. | :20:03. | :20:06. | |
That is a significant number. Many would have voted for the SNP, but I | :20:07. | :20:11. | |
think the SNP have overplayed their hand. None of that matters. If she | :20:12. | :20:17. | |
is standing there saying, as Scotland's First Minister, I am | :20:18. | :20:20. | |
giving the country the chance to choose again and I am calling a | :20:21. | :20:24. | |
second referendum, none of that matters. When they considered the | :20:25. | :20:28. | |
question last time around, they couldn't answer the question about | :20:29. | :20:32. | |
currency. This time, it will be about the deficit. You will be | :20:33. | :20:36. | |
outside of Nato, outside of the EU, you will have to reapply. Spain will | :20:37. | :20:41. | |
block you. We can't provide any answers anyway over Brexit. You can | :20:42. | :20:47. | |
provide the answer that if they remain part of the UK, we are a very | :20:48. | :20:51. | |
strong economy. Look at what we have done since last June as an economy, | :20:52. | :20:55. | |
together. That is the question they will have the answer which I think | :20:56. | :20:58. | |
they don't have the answer for, and they will be punished at the polls. | :20:59. | :21:04. | |
Gisela, I wonder how you approach this referendum, a long way off, but | :21:05. | :21:07. | |
you were such a passionate campaigner for the Leave campaign. | :21:08. | :21:10. | |
Would you throw yourself into saving the union? I have always stayed | :21:11. | :21:15. | |
there is a good union and it is the United Kingdom one. It shows you can | :21:16. | :21:19. | |
have a supranational identity and it can work. It might be coming to an | :21:20. | :21:24. | |
end. I think that is why we have to make sure it doesn't. What should | :21:25. | :21:30. | |
Theresa May do? To ask why Nicola Sturgeon is doing this. It stops her | :21:31. | :21:33. | |
from having to look at the fact that the Scottish economy is not | :21:34. | :21:36. | |
performing as well as well as it should, that its education system | :21:37. | :21:40. | |
and health system is not running as well as it should. You heard Angus | :21:41. | :21:48. | |
Robertson - they had no choice and they are doing it to give Scottish | :21:49. | :21:51. | |
people a chance. There are a significant number of people who | :21:52. | :21:54. | |
voted for Scottish independence will also voted to leave the EU. I think | :21:55. | :21:58. | |
there is a moment of massive opportunity for National renewal. We | :21:59. | :22:04. | |
have a unique opportunity in peace time to rewrite the bulls on how the | :22:05. | :22:10. | |
UK relates to each other and to the EU. That will hold us together. -- | :22:11. | :22:21. | |
to read/write the rules. You can't just have Better Together again and | :22:22. | :22:27. | |
go out and fight for it, can you? Some unions that have coherence, | :22:28. | :22:31. | |
they have democratic checks and balances, that is why the United | :22:32. | :22:37. | |
Kingdom union works and why the European Union didn't work, because | :22:38. | :22:39. | |
it didn't have those checks and balances. I completely agree and I | :22:40. | :22:43. | |
would go further and say that Ruth Davidson and the Conservatives in | :22:44. | :22:47. | |
Scotland are going to fight to stop the SNP doing this. So they should | :22:48. | :22:51. | |
just be Ruth Davidson, not Theresa May? -- so this should just be Ruth | :22:52. | :23:02. | |
Davidson. She should not be playing fast and loose with the future. We | :23:03. | :23:06. | |
had about tonight in the chamber and it went to the Lords. One of the | :23:07. | :23:10. | |
toughest things in any negotiation is the walk away option, and no | :23:11. | :23:15. | |
Government wants to take that option. In terms of the mechanics of | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
how this would happen, because it is intriguing because of all the | :23:21. | :23:22. | |
different political colours we are now seeing. Would Ruth Davidson | :23:23. | :23:30. | |
fight this for the Tories? Would you want Jeremy Corbyn becoming your | :23:31. | :23:34. | |
voice, whatever the Better Together campaign is? I think my party has to | :23:35. | :23:40. | |
be clearer when it says the United Kingdom is a union we fight for and | :23:41. | :23:46. | |
support. That is shot across the bow is to Jeremy Corbyn. I think once | :23:47. | :23:50. | |
Article 50 is triggered, in Scotland, there will be a dividing | :23:51. | :23:58. | |
line which between unionists and nationalists, and labour and the | :23:59. | :24:01. | |
Tories, we have to be clear that we other side of the unionists. The | :24:02. | :24:06. | |
point I was trying to make is that you will see the Theresa May after | :24:07. | :24:09. | |
tonight, because she has a bill that has gone through that allows her all | :24:10. | :24:16. | |
the options, in 2018-19, when, as I think is likely, we will be seeing a | :24:17. | :24:20. | |
good deal emerge for both sides, the EU and the UK, it would make the SNP | :24:21. | :24:24. | |
look irrelevant. They will look silly in the eyes of Scottish | :24:25. | :24:31. | |
people. If we had that deal as England Wales, Northern Ireland and | :24:32. | :24:34. | |
no Scotland, will it have been worth it? I don't think that's where we | :24:35. | :24:38. | |
will be. This Scottish people will look at it and say, we're better off | :24:39. | :24:45. | |
in the family of nations, a strong, dynamic United Kingdom. We are | :24:46. | :24:51. | |
negotiating as a United Kingdom. Nothing will happen to the United | :24:52. | :24:55. | |
Kingdom until that is completed. We have run out of time. Thank you very | :24:56. | :24:57. | |
much indeed. Well, when Theresa May does | :24:58. | :24:59. | |
write that letter - yes, signed off by the Queen in French - | :25:00. | :25:01. | |
all eyes will be on David Davis, the man she has charged | :25:02. | :25:05. | |
with handling what are fully expected to be some of the most | :25:06. | :25:07. | |
complex negotiations After losing out on the Tory | :25:08. | :25:10. | |
leadership to David Cameron in 2005 and then quitting the Shadow Cabinet | :25:11. | :25:13. | |
in 2008, many predicted that his career in front | :25:14. | :25:16. | |
line politics was over. Now he finds himself | :25:17. | :25:18. | |
at the forefront of the crucial Nick, you've been taking a closer | :25:19. | :25:20. | |
look at the man they call DD. Yes, well obviously Theresa May will | :25:21. | :25:35. | |
finally trigger Article 50 in the last week of March. As you say, that | :25:36. | :25:40. | |
means David Davis will enter as the chief EU negotiator. I thought I | :25:41. | :25:46. | |
would top his friends and colleagues of his to find out the character of | :25:47. | :25:50. | |
this former SAS reservist, and what he will be like in those | :25:51. | :25:54. | |
negotiations. Interestingly, I've picked up from the other 27 EU | :25:55. | :25:59. | |
members that when he sits down with his counterpart, Barnier will not be | :26:00. | :26:08. | |
asking for a specific figure on the highly contentious divorce | :26:09. | :26:12. | |
settlement, the money the UK has to pay. Barnier will say that we have | :26:13. | :26:19. | |
to sign up to the principles, which means that the UK has do abide by | :26:20. | :26:26. | |
commitments and undertakings it has taken as a member state and accept | :26:27. | :26:30. | |
its share of EU liabilities. Emily, this is my film. | :26:31. | :26:37. | |
It's a daunting challenge that only the bravest of the brave would | :26:38. | :26:46. | |
attempt. After accepting a death from fellow Tory diners, David Davis | :26:47. | :26:52. | |
sauntered along the crumbling ramparts of the castle. One false | :26:53. | :26:58. | |
move would have been a -- would have meant a sheer drop. David Davis | :26:59. | :27:06. | |
cemented his reputation as a fearless hard man. He also showed | :27:07. | :27:10. | |
that he is prepared to take risks but never in a reckless way. And | :27:11. | :27:16. | |
that shows the approach he will take to the Brexit negotiations. He takes | :27:17. | :27:21. | |
pride in his ability to take risks, but only after making a very careful | :27:22. | :27:25. | |
assessment of all the options in front of him. In David Davis's 's | :27:26. | :27:34. | |
mind, the black Root was a walk in the park compared to one of his | :27:35. | :27:39. | |
proudest achievements - a stint in the SAS reserves. When it came to | :27:40. | :27:42. | |
finding his way through university, he did it by joining the military. | :27:43. | :27:46. | |
He became a member of the Special Air Service, the Territorial Army | :27:47. | :27:56. | |
regiment, which means that he knows how to kill people, but only at | :27:57. | :28:02. | |
weekends. He won the respect of his military comrade after a deprived | :28:03. | :28:04. | |
and troubled upbringing in south London. One night, we got to bed | :28:05. | :28:10. | |
absolutely shattered in the barrack block from an injury in March, and | :28:11. | :28:19. | |
we got to bed at midnight. At 4am, suddenly, though wash-outs and | :28:20. | :28:22. | |
yells, the lights came on, everybody out, on parade! Underpants only, get | :28:23. | :28:28. | |
on the track! The last man to the top of the Brecon Beacons and back | :28:29. | :28:32. | |
will fail. That's pretty standard stuff coming from the instructors | :28:33. | :28:37. | |
but on this occasion, it was David doing shouting. Will you expect the | :28:38. | :28:45. | |
status quo, capping and capitalism? Although he had been interested in | :28:46. | :28:49. | |
politics since his student days, David Davis embarked on a business | :28:50. | :28:52. | |
career spanning two decades after leaving university and ended up on | :28:53. | :28:58. | |
the board of Tate Lyle, a suitable position for a sugar addict. For | :28:59. | :29:03. | |
scoops of sugar in his tea on a good day. After renting parliament at the | :29:04. | :29:08. | |
age of 38 in 1987, his business and military background provided the | :29:09. | :29:10. | |
perfect training for the assignment that made his name as a senior whip | :29:11. | :29:16. | |
pushing through the Maastricht Treaty. He may have been the | :29:17. | :29:21. | |
enforcer of the integrationist EU treaty, but he was no starry eyed | :29:22. | :29:27. | |
pro-European, as a former colleague can attest. His first contact with | :29:28. | :29:29. | |
Europe was as a businessman with Tate Lyle. What the common | :29:30. | :29:34. | |
cultural policy did was essentially disadvantaged it from French sugar | :29:35. | :29:44. | |
beet growers. What David Davis saw was a very distorted policy that her | :29:45. | :29:47. | |
British interests. It seemed commercial the village and wasteful | :29:48. | :29:51. | |
of money, and it was anti-British, which affected his initial judgment | :29:52. | :29:59. | |
about Europe. So his colleagues say that there should be no surprise | :30:00. | :30:02. | |
that the enforcer of Maastricht is now the man guiding the UK out of | :30:03. | :30:09. | |
the EU. Maastricht was a long time ago. The European Union has become | :30:10. | :30:16. | |
much more integrationist since then, and the flaws in the project have | :30:17. | :30:17. | |
become much more apparent. David Davis hoped to replace Michael | :30:18. | :30:27. | |
Howard as Tory leader. But a less than scintillating speech paved the | :30:28. | :30:31. | |
way for the next generation. Friends at mitted this failure highlighted | :30:32. | :30:36. | |
some character flaws. He works incredibly hard but he likes to take | :30:37. | :30:41. | |
August off. The trouble was that he needed to use August to tell the | :30:42. | :30:45. | |
country why he wanted to be Prime Minister back in 2005. David Cameron | :30:46. | :30:50. | |
kept his rival on as Shadow Home Secretary, but David Davis never | :30:51. | :30:55. | |
felt entirely comfortable. He ended his frontbench career when he | :30:56. | :30:59. | |
triggered a by-election, which he won on a point of principle on civil | :31:00. | :31:06. | |
liberties. Cameron regarded this as a vain act of folly. He's an | :31:07. | :31:11. | |
extraordinary optimistic and self-confident person. I remember | :31:12. | :31:17. | |
one of the Cameroons once saying to me in exasperation that he's the | :31:18. | :31:22. | |
only person he knows who didn't go to Eton but has the same level of | :31:23. | :31:26. | |
self-confidence you get from an Eton education. I fleefully retaled this | :31:27. | :31:35. | |
to David Cameron who hooted with laughter. There's a sort of | :31:36. | :31:41. | |
Churchill element to the journey. He hasn't actually changed parties but | :31:42. | :31:47. | |
he's had his wilderness years. He's a very unusual politician, a man of | :31:48. | :31:51. | |
great principle, as we see, a man prepared to go into the wilderness, | :31:52. | :31:56. | |
but a man who reinvents himself and comes back. At the time of the EU | :31:57. | :32:00. | |
referendum, David Davis had an inkling that he might be called up | :32:01. | :32:04. | |
by a desperate David Cameron if he'd stayed on as Prime Minister after | :32:05. | :32:09. | |
losing. So David Davis campaigned on the Leave side, though in a low-key | :32:10. | :32:14. | |
way. I remember on the night of the referendum, I was at ITV. I can | :32:15. | :32:21. | |
remember I was actually with Liam Fox in the studio with Tom about to | :32:22. | :32:27. | |
do an interview, when it was officially declared, that's it, | :32:28. | :32:31. | |
there's no way Remain can now win. Fox looked stunned. Then we left the | :32:32. | :32:36. | |
studio after doing the interview. David Davis was there. He just went | :32:37. | :32:41. | |
up to Liam Fox and said, "We've done it." He looked like he was really | :32:42. | :32:47. | |
kind of celebrating. The call did come but from a new Number Ten, | :32:48. | :32:51. | |
whilst he was catching up with an old colleague. He listened to his | :32:52. | :32:57. | |
voice message. He said, oh, looks like Number Ten want to see me. Off | :32:58. | :33:01. | |
he went up Downing Street. I went to the pub and watched him walk up the | :33:02. | :33:05. | |
street from the screen. The next thing I know, he's standing out the | :33:06. | :33:11. | |
front and we're going for a pizza. It was a completely ordinary evening | :33:12. | :33:15. | |
with something slightly extraordinary happening in the | :33:16. | :33:18. | |
middle of it. Theresa May took a gamble in appointing David Davis. In | :33:19. | :33:23. | |
the past they've clashed on civil liberties and they're not exactly | :33:24. | :33:27. | |
natural political soul mates. But David Davis has won the trust of the | :33:28. | :33:30. | |
Prime Minister. The word in Number Ten is that he's coming into his own | :33:31. | :33:35. | |
on Brexit and he's even turning into something of an elder statesman, no | :33:36. | :33:40. | |
such praise for his fellow Brexiteers, Boris Johnson, and Liam | :33:41. | :33:44. | |
Fox. Just down the street in his office in number nine, David Davis | :33:45. | :33:48. | |
puts his success down to two factors - silence and what he calls | :33:49. | :33:52. | |
proximity. He's avoided talking out of line and he's ensured that by | :33:53. | :33:58. | |
squatting in the building next door, he can saunter into Number Ten if | :33:59. | :34:02. | |
any problem arises. APPLAUSE | :34:03. | :34:09. | |
As a priority we will pursue a bold and ambitious Free Trade Agreement | :34:10. | :34:14. | |
with the European Union. The extent of David Davis' influence was shown | :34:15. | :34:17. | |
when the Prime Minister set out her overall negotiating approach in a | :34:18. | :34:21. | |
speech in Lancaster House earlier this year. Theresa May said she was | :34:22. | :34:25. | |
prepared to walk away from a bad deal. With his belief in taking | :34:26. | :34:31. | |
risk, but never acting recklessly, David Davis had told the Prime | :34:32. | :34:35. | |
Minister the EU will only take the UK seriously if it shows it is | :34:36. | :34:41. | |
unafraid of no deal. Obviously, it would be better both for the | :34:42. | :34:46. | |
European Union and for the UK if a sensible, constructive deal is | :34:47. | :34:50. | |
struck. But if, for whatever reason, they don't want to do that, we'll' | :34:51. | :34:55. | |
be fine without a deal. We can manage without a deal. Better with | :34:56. | :35:00. | |
one, but fine without one. David Davis knows such a path would be | :35:01. | :35:04. | |
fraught with danger, a marked change from his tone during the referendum | :35:05. | :35:07. | |
campaign, when he appeared to suggest Brexit would be | :35:08. | :35:12. | |
straightforward. His EU counterpart believes British talk of a walkout | :35:13. | :35:17. | |
is a bluff. I think the British Government, everyone in the British | :35:18. | :35:23. | |
Government know that a non-deal is going to be a simple catastrophe. So | :35:24. | :35:29. | |
if you want to walk out of the negotiations you'd better have good | :35:30. | :35:32. | |
negotiating cards. Britain doesn't. So in that sense I hope that we | :35:33. | :35:37. | |
never get into that state. The former Finnish Prime Minister | :35:38. | :35:43. | |
advises David Davis that Michelle Barnier will expect him to agree to | :35:44. | :35:47. | |
the principles, though not the exact sum of a financial exit bill. The | :35:48. | :35:51. | |
landing zone for this negotiation is that you come up with the principles | :35:52. | :35:55. | |
of the finances in the beginning. You see what the bill is then at the | :35:56. | :36:00. | |
end of the day. Then you start the negotiations at the same time on | :36:01. | :36:08. | |
Britain's new relationship. In these negotiations, because there's so | :36:09. | :36:11. | |
many vested interests you will have a clash and a few of those clashes | :36:12. | :36:15. | |
at the beginning. He also suggests it would be wise for David Davis to | :36:16. | :36:21. | |
rebuild the personal rapport he established when they were fellow | :36:22. | :36:25. | |
Europe ministers in the 1990s. I think they should go for quite a few | :36:26. | :36:31. | |
glasses of wine and glasses of pints just the two of them to sort things | :36:32. | :36:34. | |
out. The tough path of leaving the EU will finally be under way in the | :36:35. | :36:39. | |
last week of March, when Theresa May triggers Article 50. That is a bit | :36:40. | :36:42. | |
of a blow to David Davis, who had hoped to move this week. But the | :36:43. | :36:47. | |
ever confident Brexit secretary carries on serenely. He's the only | :36:48. | :36:53. | |
man I know who can swagger sitting down, one Tory grandee says. | :36:54. | :36:58. | |
Imagine if every story on Newsnight was told in four different ways. | :36:59. | :37:01. | |
I'll wait for a second to let that delightful thought sink in. | :37:02. | :37:04. | |
But the American novelist Paul Auster has attempted just | :37:05. | :37:07. | |
that in his new book, 4-3-2-1, a what-if story about | :37:08. | :37:11. | |
the unfolding of an American life in the mid-to-late 20th century. | :37:12. | :37:15. | |
Although Auster started work on his 900-page epic | :37:16. | :37:17. | |
when President Donald Trump was still only a gleam | :37:18. | :37:21. | |
in his barber's mirror, critics are calling it prophetic. | :37:22. | :37:25. | |
You might remember that when the writer talked to me | :37:26. | :37:29. | |
for Newsnight just before the US election, he was very gloomy about | :37:30. | :37:31. | |
We sent Stephen Smith to see if he could cheer him up. | :37:32. | :37:38. | |
Like that was ever gong to work to work. | :37:39. | :37:42. | |
You've landed us after so many gamine, elegant books, | :37:43. | :37:45. | |
Don't drop it on your foot, that's the only advice I can give you. | :37:46. | :37:55. | |
Paul Auster's new novel had to be big because it imagines one man's | :37:56. | :37:58. | |
The writer's been preoccupied about the unexpected | :37:59. | :38:04. | |
turns our lives can take, since a tragedy involving a thunder | :38:05. | :38:07. | |
storm at summer camp, when he was just 14. | :38:08. | :38:11. | |
The boy directly in front of me, in other words, his feet | :38:12. | :38:15. | |
were about that far from my head, as he was halfway through the fence. | :38:16. | :38:23. | |
Lightning struck the barbed wire, electrocuted him on the spot. | :38:24. | :38:28. | |
So I crawled beside him and I pulled him into the meadow. | :38:29. | :38:38. | |
I stayed with him for an hour trying to warm him up. | :38:39. | :38:41. | |
That was the moment that I understood that anything can | :38:42. | :38:43. | |
It's an experience that has haunted me all my life. | :38:44. | :38:47. | |
I've thought about it probably every day. | :38:48. | :38:49. | |
It was the single most important thing that ever happened to me. | :38:50. | :39:00. | |
The multiple lives of Auster's protagonist Ferguson | :39:01. | :39:03. | |
unfold against the events of the mid-20th century. | :39:04. | :39:08. | |
"Those were the only two subjects that seemed to exist any more, | :39:09. | :39:11. | |
Ferguson wrote in an letter to his aunt and uncle in California. | :39:12. | :39:14. | |
The expanding bloodshed in Vietnam and the Civil | :39:15. | :39:17. | |
White America at war with the yellow people of South East Asia. | :39:18. | :39:22. | |
White America in conflict with its own black citizens, | :39:23. | :39:26. | |
who are more and more in conflict with themselves, the movement that | :39:27. | :39:29. | |
had already split into factions was splitting further into factions | :39:30. | :39:32. | |
of factions and perhaps even factions of factions of factions. | :39:33. | :39:41. | |
The lines drawn so sharply that few dared step over them any more." | :39:42. | :39:48. | |
Well, we seem to be in that state right now | :39:49. | :39:51. | |
It is eerie how 50 years later, we're living through | :39:52. | :39:58. | |
a new wave of racial problems and another divided country. | :39:59. | :40:08. | |
Suddenly, after the election, a new wave of activism that has not | :40:09. | :40:16. | |
happened in this country since that period of my book, the '60s. | :40:17. | :40:23. | |
He told Newsnight last year that he had no time | :40:24. | :40:27. | |
We wondered what the president's whirlwind start had done | :40:28. | :40:31. | |
My daughter showed me the tape of our interview, | :40:32. | :40:37. | |
my interview with the BBC just before, and I look like a man | :40:38. | :40:42. | |
I was stuttering in ways that I don't normally, | :40:43. | :40:48. | |
I am, well, along with millions and millions and millions | :40:49. | :41:00. | |
of other people in America, I feel as if I'm | :41:01. | :41:04. | |
We've gotten somebody who is, I think, deranged. | :41:05. | :41:10. | |
He's a demented, incompetent, unqualified person. | :41:11. | :41:15. | |
In British terms could there be a sense that this is a class thing? | :41:16. | :41:19. | |
That he's the brash, vulgar guy who's turned up | :41:20. | :41:22. | |
on the street with his funny hair and gold bathroom, and he just | :41:23. | :41:25. | |
He has a demonic talent for inciting crowds and getting | :41:26. | :41:34. | |
His gibberish, it's utter nonsense that comes out of his mouth and yet, | :41:35. | :41:41. | |
he has his loyal followers who are loving everything that | :41:42. | :41:45. | |
But no, more seriously, what he is proposing to do | :41:46. | :41:51. | |
is dismantle American society and the choice of his | :41:52. | :41:54. | |
We were hearing that Trump has no sympathy for Nato. | :41:55. | :42:03. | |
But he's appointed people who are pro-Nato and says that he's | :42:04. | :42:08. | |
He's contradicting himself continually. | :42:09. | :42:18. | |
I don't think he even knows what he thinks. | :42:19. | :42:23. | |
That's all we have time for this evening. Evans here tomorrow. Till | :42:24. | :42:27. | |
then, good night. Hello. It's been a mild start to the | :42:28. | :42:42. | |
week. No frost overnight. Mild again for Tuesday. Plenty of cloud around | :42:43. | :42:47. | |
first thing, mind you. A lot of thick cloud through Wales, | :42:48. | :42:48. |