Browse content similar to 14/03/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Lights down for the big fight, round two. | :00:00. | :00:00. | |
The issue is the end of the United Kingdom. | :00:00. | :00:08. | |
First, who decides on a second Scottish referendum, | :00:09. | :00:42. | |
And then the substantive argument, should Scotland leave one | :00:43. | :00:47. | |
We'll look at the link between Scottish independence and Brexit. | :00:48. | :00:52. | |
Will Theresa May be tempted to water down the latter | :00:53. | :00:59. | |
Will Theresa May be tempted to water down the latter to avoid the former? | :01:00. | :01:02. | |
Also tonight, the Netherlands prepares to vote tomorrow. | :01:03. | :01:04. | |
We ask the Prime Minister will he be another domino in the fall of | :01:05. | :01:08. | |
Not if I can help it. I am fighting to win. I have called this the | :01:09. | :01:14. | |
quarter-finals. The half-finals will be the French elections and the | :01:15. | :01:19. | |
finals will be the German elections. . | :01:20. | :01:24. | |
And speaking of Europe, why has the Dutch boss | :01:25. | :01:26. | |
of the Royal Opera House relocated Wagner to a London gentleman's club? | :01:27. | :01:42. | |
Hello, we knew our nation was at a crossroads - | :01:43. | :01:45. | |
but now it looks more like spaghetti junction. | :01:46. | :01:47. | |
The issues of Brexit, Scotland and the union | :01:48. | :01:49. | |
The re-shaping of the UK could be as dramatic as anything we've | :01:50. | :01:55. | |
And at the helm of the UK and Scotland as this plays out, | :01:56. | :02:01. | |
two women; each seeing this as the moment for history to be | :02:02. | :02:04. | |
made, each diametrically opposed to each other and neither facing | :02:05. | :02:07. | |
strong opposition from other parties. | :02:08. | :02:13. | |
Today, Nicola Sturgeon said the timing of a second Scottish | :02:14. | :02:16. | |
referendum should be decided by Scotland - Made in | :02:17. | :02:18. | |
Well, it could be an interesting few years. | :02:19. | :02:22. | |
Before we hear about the dilemma for Theresa May in working out how | :02:23. | :02:27. | |
to respond to Nicola Sturgeon's request for a referendum, | :02:28. | :02:32. | |
let's look at the diary and see the key dates. | :02:33. | :02:34. | |
As far as Brexit is concerned - we trigger the process | :02:35. | :02:37. | |
We'll get initial reactions and then negotiation proper will probably | :02:38. | :02:41. | |
start after the French election in May. | :02:42. | :02:45. | |
The EU has said it wants a draft deal by September next year, | :02:46. | :02:51. | |
that can be signed off by everyone by March 2019 - that's the date | :02:52. | :02:54. | |
that Britain would leave the EU, deal or no deal. | :02:55. | :02:59. | |
So how does a Scottish referendum fit around that? | :03:00. | :03:03. | |
Well, Nicola Sturgeon says the second referendum should be | :03:04. | :03:05. | |
after any deal is known, but before we actually leave. | :03:06. | :03:08. | |
Then even if Scotland is dragged out of the EU, | :03:09. | :03:10. | |
it can already be preparing to get back in. | :03:11. | :03:14. | |
Theresa May wants Brexit out of the way first. | :03:15. | :03:18. | |
Before that would be the "worst possible timing" she says. | :03:19. | :03:21. | |
After that, it gets tangled up in the UK | :03:22. | :03:23. | |
General Election - May 2020. | :03:24. | :03:29. | |
And after that, it gets tangled up with the next Scottish | :03:30. | :03:32. | |
Well, Theresa May does not want a second Scottish | :03:33. | :03:37. | |
referendum; the SNP did have it in their manifesto. | :03:38. | :03:40. | |
And most ferociously we have to expect, over the timing of one. | :03:41. | :03:49. | |
But there is another dimension - Theresa May could use | :03:50. | :03:51. | |
Scotland as a reason to soften her demands for Brexit. | :03:52. | :03:58. | |
Make the demands more Scotland friendly. | :03:59. | :03:59. | |
That would upset her Brexiteer colleagues, but if she doesn't, | :04:00. | :04:02. | |
Nick Watt has been looking at calculations that might be | :04:03. | :04:05. | |
One United Kingdom. Two leaders and a third referendum? Just when you | :04:06. | :04:21. | |
thought it was safe to venture outside, another vote emerges over | :04:22. | :04:25. | |
the horizon. If we have learned one lesson over | :04:26. | :04:30. | |
the last three years, it is that referendums are dangerous for the | :04:31. | :04:37. | |
losers and the winners. So both Nicola Sturgeon and Theresa May face | :04:38. | :04:47. | |
a perilous path as Indr Ref 2 Hoves into view. Theresa May looks as if | :04:48. | :04:51. | |
she's going to have a hard Brexit, which is going to be very, very bad | :04:52. | :04:56. | |
for the United Kingdom and that is playing into the hands, as - has | :04:57. | :05:00. | |
played into the hands of Nicola Sturgeon, because it gives her this | :05:01. | :05:04. | |
extra reason, strengthens her argument for coming out of the | :05:05. | :05:07. | |
United Kingdom because Scotland voted to stay and Nicola Sturgeon is | :05:08. | :05:11. | |
also taking a risk with the referendum, I don't think there is | :05:12. | :05:14. | |
any guarantee she's going to get it through and if she doesn't get it | :05:15. | :05:18. | |
through, then her career is finished and the SNP are in great | :05:19. | :05:22. | |
difficulties, so it's a very high risk strategy for both women. | :05:23. | :05:27. | |
Westminster still retains ultimate sovereignty over Scotland and yes, | :05:28. | :05:30. | |
there is a slimmed down Scotland office in Whitehall. This means that | :05:31. | :05:37. | |
Nicola Sturgeon has to ask to hold a legally binding referendum on | :05:38. | :05:40. | |
independence. Once that request has been tabled, after a vote in | :05:41. | :05:44. | |
Holyrood, Theresa May faces a headache. If the Prime Minister | :05:45. | :05:50. | |
rejects a referendum in the course of this UK parliament, she risks | :05:51. | :05:55. | |
inflaming Scottish nationalists. Just imagine, if Theresa May adopts | :05:56. | :06:01. | |
this line, just imagine the campaign that's going to take place to | :06:02. | :06:04. | |
illustrate they're breaking manifesto commitments and trying to | :06:05. | :06:08. | |
stop the First Minister fulfilling a manifesto commitment in defiance of | :06:09. | :06:11. | |
the view of the Scottish parliament. For goodness sake. I mean, that's | :06:12. | :06:16. | |
the sort of - Theresa May talks about a cliff-edge as far as Brexit | :06:17. | :06:22. | |
is concerned, that's the sort of abyss that David Cameron once looked | :06:23. | :06:30. | |
over. David Cameron granted that referendum to avoid a stand | :06:31. | :06:37. | |
Catalonian-style standoff. The man who was Scotland's Secretary at the | :06:38. | :06:41. | |
time of Indy Ref one says the nationalists would struggle to claim | :06:42. | :06:45. | |
they're on a par with the Catalans because they were granted a proper | :06:46. | :06:52. | |
vote. We did that, the Catalanian standoff was avoided. The problem | :06:53. | :06:56. | |
for the SNP was they didn't get the answer they wanted so it was perhaps | :06:57. | :07:00. | |
in their views not as decisive as they wanted it to be. I don't accept | :07:01. | :07:05. | |
this attitude on the part of political parties who say, we have | :07:06. | :07:08. | |
had a referendum, we don't agree with the result, we are going to ask | :07:09. | :07:11. | |
people to do it all over again because we hope there will be a | :07:12. | :07:14. | |
different result. I don't think that's fair and I don't think that's | :07:15. | :07:20. | |
particularly democratic. But one veteran of Labour's battles with the | :07:21. | :07:25. | |
SNP says Brexit is complicating Westminster's arguments against a | :07:26. | :07:28. | |
second referendum. Nicola Sturgeon is saying she wants Scotland to be | :07:29. | :07:32. | |
independent, able to make its own decisions, not to be part of the | :07:33. | :07:36. | |
United Kingdom, held in and controlled by the other countries in | :07:37. | :07:40. | |
the United Kingdom. Theresa May is wanting to take the United Kingdom | :07:41. | :07:45. | |
out of the European Union again to keep sovereignty and to a country | :07:46. | :07:48. | |
that's independent and not controlled by, or influenced by the | :07:49. | :07:51. | |
other countries in the European Union. So it's a very much the same | :07:52. | :07:56. | |
argument. Scotland's First Minister at the time of the referendum | :07:57. | :08:01. | |
rejects one of Number 10's central arguments against a second vote. | :08:02. | :08:05. | |
That both sides agreed to abide by the result. Nicola Sturgeon is a new | :08:06. | :08:11. | |
First Minister. With a fresh mandate from the Scottish people saying that | :08:12. | :08:14. | |
under the circumstances of Scotland being dragged out of Europe against | :08:15. | :08:18. | |
the will of the Scottish people, the Scottish parliament should hold a | :08:19. | :08:21. | |
referendum on independence, as clear as day. | :08:22. | :08:26. | |
To stave off a second referendum, Theresa May will embark on a tour of | :08:27. | :08:31. | |
all four corners of the UK to drum up support for her Brexit plan. No | :08:32. | :08:35. | |
doubt she will gloss over a similar save the union tour by John Major in | :08:36. | :08:42. | |
1997 as part of her unsuccessful campaign against the Scottish | :08:43. | :08:44. | |
parliament. History can move in circles. | :08:45. | :08:49. | |
So let's get a taste of views from Scotland. | :08:50. | :08:51. | |
Two and a half years ago, the country was electrified | :08:52. | :08:53. | |
by its referendum, but also fiercely divided. | :08:54. | :08:56. | |
The polls indicate that opinion is still divided, | :08:57. | :09:00. | |
Here are some views from Glasgow today. | :09:01. | :09:05. | |
There's so much stuff the SNP are not doing | :09:06. | :09:09. | |
on the groundwork that you say well, how can this be? | :09:10. | :09:14. | |
How can you ask us to vote Yes for independence when ultimately | :09:15. | :09:21. | |
you can't give us any kind of guarantees about the future? | :09:22. | :09:24. | |
I wasn't at all surprised that she made the announcement. | :09:25. | :09:28. | |
Although a bit earlier than I expected. | :09:29. | :09:31. | |
And, of course, she feels she's in the driving seat now | :09:32. | :09:40. | |
because she has the people on her side, but to be | :09:41. | :09:43. | |
honest the situation has changed since 2014. | :09:44. | :09:45. | |
So it may well be that a Yes vote would be on the cards for next year. | :09:46. | :09:50. | |
I think it's definitely too early to call another | :09:51. | :09:57. | |
referendum election in like 2018, 2019, there is so much uncertainty | :09:58. | :10:00. | |
I think we voted 55% for being in the UK, 45% against. | :10:01. | :10:04. | |
So for Miss Sturgeon asking for this, she's essentially wanting | :10:05. | :10:10. | |
to go against the majority of the Scottish population. | :10:11. | :10:16. | |
I think it's a good idea being independent but I think | :10:17. | :10:25. | |
the First Minister is just taking it too soon, I think she should wait | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
for the Brexit deal to be done, then she can take it from there. | :10:30. | :10:35. | |
The big difference between this independence referendum | :10:36. | :10:38. | |
in Scotland and the last one - of course - is that it will all take | :10:39. | :10:41. | |
And that's something that will cause a lot of head | :10:42. | :10:45. | |
scratching not just here - but in Brussels and the rest | :10:46. | :10:48. | |
Our Diplomatic Editor, Mark Urban, is here. | :10:49. | :10:56. | |
How have European leaders received this idea that this is complicating | :10:57. | :11:01. | |
a factor that Scotland might itself try and separate from the UK? I | :11:02. | :11:04. | |
think complicating factor is understating it. There is | :11:05. | :11:09. | |
consternation and concern, diplomats don't like negotiations to fragment, | :11:10. | :11:15. | |
to be getting wider when they should be getting narrower, the iruse | :11:16. | :11:19. | |
multiply. I will fragment this programme and mention Northern | :11:20. | :11:22. | |
Ireland which you haven't mentioned easterly, both Scotland and Northern | :11:23. | :11:24. | |
Ireland are possibly on the road to something here and there is concern. | :11:25. | :11:30. | |
Now people I have spoken to today emphasised that with the case of | :11:31. | :11:33. | |
Scotland it must be an enabling decision by Theresa May and the | :11:34. | :11:37. | |
British parliament that allows that to happen. They don't want a sort of | :11:38. | :11:44. | |
unilateral Scottish referendum. Here is a former Polish Foreign Minister. | :11:45. | :11:48. | |
We have here two competing principles, the right | :11:49. | :11:54. | |
to self-determination and the inviability of borders. | :11:55. | :11:56. | |
So I don't think anybody would object to a cessation | :11:57. | :11:58. | |
that is done according to the constitution | :11:59. | :12:00. | |
What would make people very nervous would be any unilateral | :12:01. | :12:06. | |
That point well made. The Spanish are always a big player in this | :12:07. | :12:24. | |
because of Catalan. Mentioned by Nick and you, 2014, they tried to go | :12:25. | :12:28. | |
for it, the constitutional court and the upper House in Spain wouldn't | :12:29. | :12:33. | |
let them. Of course it was a damp squib. Europe did not recognise the | :12:34. | :12:36. | |
results of the vote and did not give them what they wanted in that sense. | :12:37. | :12:41. | |
So that is a warning blow. Look, they've got those sort of issues in | :12:42. | :12:45. | |
mind, the Spanish, the Belgians and other countries. Some other | :12:46. | :12:48. | |
countries are more friendly to the idea of Scottish independence but in | :12:49. | :12:55. | |
the end they've also got to consider the question of if these major | :12:56. | :12:59. | |
questions about Scotland and Northern Ireland don't get resolved | :13:00. | :13:02. | |
until after the Brexit negotiations is completed, won't that make for a | :13:03. | :13:06. | |
simpler negotiation and won't it also make for a British Prime | :13:07. | :13:10. | |
Minister who is under more pressure from those factors to agree to | :13:11. | :13:13. | |
single market type terms? Mark, thank you very much. | :13:14. | :13:16. | |
I'm now joined by passionate unionist and Conservative | :13:17. | :13:18. | |
And Kirsty Blackman MP, who is on the SNP's | :13:19. | :13:21. | |
Evening to you. Let's just find out about this, do you agree it has to | :13:22. | :13:32. | |
be a Westminster sanctioned referendum and there is no go it | :13:33. | :13:36. | |
alone referendum? That's a process that we are doing, Nicola set out we | :13:37. | :13:41. | |
are putting forward the section 30 agreement and putting that to the UK | :13:42. | :13:45. | |
Government in an attempt to try to get agreement there. It would be an | :13:46. | :13:49. | |
illegitimate vote if it wasn't agreed to by Theresa May? It's not | :13:50. | :13:52. | |
something we are planning to do. Right. Who gets to decide the timing | :13:53. | :13:57. | |
of this? Who do you think gets to decide the timing of a second | :13:58. | :14:03. | |
Scottish referendum? I think your answer answered the question, it's | :14:04. | :14:07. | |
got to be a parliamentary vote in Westminster that gives authority and | :14:08. | :14:11. | |
legitimacy to that. The people who control the parliamentary timetable | :14:12. | :14:14. | |
is the Government. That's what governments do. So I think that the | :14:15. | :14:18. | |
Government will have an important say probably an overriding say in | :14:19. | :14:21. | |
deciding what time the referendum will take place. And should the | :14:22. | :14:25. | |
Government listen to the Scottish Government's advice on that or | :14:26. | :14:28. | |
should the British UK Government say, well, we don't like you having | :14:29. | :14:32. | |
a referendum, you can go it after 2021? I am not speaking for the | :14:33. | :14:36. | |
Prime Minister but from my point of view it seems odd that they should | :14:37. | :14:40. | |
have a vote before Brexit has been completed. Because I think as Mark | :14:41. | :14:45. | |
suggested, it completely complicates and confuses the issue. I would say | :14:46. | :14:51. | |
that they should think - Brexit be over and done be, and then clear the | :14:52. | :14:54. | |
table, and then we can have a referendum. That seems like a | :14:55. | :14:56. | |
reasonable way to proceed. Scotland did not support Brexit, we | :14:57. | :15:10. | |
overwhelmingly voted against. And the SNP were voted in with the | :15:11. | :15:16. | |
majority of the constituency vote. Our manifesto said we would hold a | :15:17. | :15:21. | |
referendum especially in these circumstances. The timing is a bit | :15:22. | :15:25. | |
more complicated. The British Government and you are part of the | :15:26. | :15:30. | |
UK and Europe population voted to be part of the UK, May say we do not | :15:31. | :15:35. | |
want this complicated. In terms of the timeline we have chosen the EU | :15:36. | :15:39. | |
timeline. Michel Barnier said they would spend 18 months negotiating | :15:40. | :15:44. | |
and six months ratifying. So the shape of Brexit will be known. We | :15:45. | :15:48. | |
will not know it is going to be ratified, Parliament could throw a | :15:49. | :15:52. | |
spanner in the works. It surely would be useful to know what the | :15:53. | :15:56. | |
final deal is. At that stage we will know the shape of the deal or it is | :15:57. | :16:01. | |
no deal. Those are the options at that stage. Those of the options | :16:02. | :16:06. | |
that Scotland will be faced with. It seems bizarre timing because in | :16:07. | :16:10. | |
September 2018 we will know the shape of the deal but it will not | :16:11. | :16:13. | |
have been ratified, that will take six months to ratify the deal and to | :16:14. | :16:19. | |
have a Scottish referendum in the middle of the process of ratifying | :16:20. | :16:23. | |
Brexit to me seems you are confusing the issue. That seems to be a | :16:24. | :16:30. | |
bizarre time frame for a referendum. September 2019, that is quite close | :16:31. | :16:35. | |
to the UK general election. There are a couple of issues, the main | :16:36. | :16:38. | |
thing is to get Brexit over and done with. We know Scotland voted against | :16:39. | :16:44. | |
but as a whole the UK voted for it. I think is reasonable to say let's | :16:45. | :16:48. | |
get Brexit over and done with before embarking on another campaign. Would | :16:49. | :16:55. | |
you accept a September 2019? We have put forward a compromise edition and | :16:56. | :17:00. | |
continue to do so and we have moved a mile from our original proposals | :17:01. | :17:04. | |
and the UK Government have not moved an inch. So the door is still open | :17:05. | :17:09. | |
for compromise. You mean compromise on Scottish access to the single | :17:10. | :17:14. | |
market? That is what we put forward. Let's talk about the negotiation for | :17:15. | :17:19. | |
Brexit because one theory would be that Theresa May could soften her | :17:20. | :17:23. | |
Brexit in order to perhaps make it more like -- more likely that | :17:24. | :17:31. | |
Scotland would stay in the UK. The problem is you completely forget the | :17:32. | :17:37. | |
fact there are 27 other countries we are negotiating with about Brexit. | :17:38. | :17:42. | |
We do not have a choice. They might want us to be in the single market. | :17:43. | :17:47. | |
We do not know what they were like, but the position will be. So to | :17:48. | :17:51. | |
frame the idea or notion that somehow the Prime Minister could say | :17:52. | :17:55. | |
I'm going to soft in this together another deal on the other side, I do | :17:56. | :17:59. | |
not think it is realistic. You're dealing with the EU, negotiating not | :18:00. | :18:06. | |
with just Nicola Sturgeon. If the British Government tried to get | :18:07. | :18:09. | |
something closer to single market access for the whole UK, not the | :18:10. | :18:13. | |
special Scotland arrangement you have come up with but something | :18:14. | :18:19. | |
closer, a softer Brexit, would that then stymie that? Theresa May in the | :18:20. | :18:25. | |
face of all evidence to the contrary is trying to proceed with this hard | :18:26. | :18:30. | |
Brexit. But would it make a difference if it was soft. She has | :18:31. | :18:34. | |
had loads of evidence suggesting hard Brexit is damaging. Tens of | :18:35. | :18:38. | |
thousands of jobs being lost in Scotland. And nothing so far has | :18:39. | :18:43. | |
made her soften stance and I do not imagine this would do so. It almost | :18:44. | :18:47. | |
sounded earlier as if you were saying that there was still time for | :18:48. | :18:49. | |
a deal. You said you'd been trying to get the deal and she has not | :18:50. | :18:54. | |
moved an inch. I'm interested in what that inch would have to be for | :18:55. | :18:58. | |
you to say the referendum would be put back in the box. We've spoken | :18:59. | :19:03. | |
about single market access for Scotland, but it would be beneficial | :19:04. | :19:07. | |
for the whole of the UK. And if the EU said you cannot have that, and | :19:08. | :19:13. | |
Donald Tusk at one point said it is hard Brexit or no Brexit, if the EU | :19:14. | :19:17. | |
did not allow single market access, with that then mean you would say we | :19:18. | :19:23. | |
will stick with Brexit. If Theresa May was to begin to prioritise the | :19:24. | :19:30. | |
needs of British citizens and the task of Scotland, that would be a | :19:31. | :19:33. | |
compromise position. How do you interpret what hearing? Well the | :19:34. | :19:39. | |
other problem is what the premises suggested we were doing, essentially | :19:40. | :19:43. | |
playing games, as Nicola Sturgeon is doing. This is the negotiation and | :19:44. | :19:51. | |
her saying we will have a referendum in September 2019 is an opening | :19:52. | :19:55. | |
gambit. She's saying I'm going to threaten you with a referendum if | :19:56. | :19:58. | |
you do not accede to my terms Brexit. I do not think the Prime | :19:59. | :20:02. | |
Minister, I do not know her especially well, but I do not think | :20:03. | :20:07. | |
she will be... Playing hardball on that might lead to the | :20:08. | :20:11. | |
disintegration of the UK. I think the independence issue will be | :20:12. | :20:15. | |
debated on its own merits. A third of the people who voted yes actually | :20:16. | :20:20. | |
voted for Brexit. That never comes up. But it is an issue. Some people | :20:21. | :20:27. | |
in Scotland, a large number, want independence from Britain but also | :20:28. | :20:31. | |
want independence from Brussels. So that is a big issue. We need to | :20:32. | :20:32. | |
leave it there. Thank you both. The Conservative MP Craig Mackinley, | :20:33. | :20:34. | |
who beat Nigel Farage in the Thanet South seat at the last | :20:35. | :20:36. | |
general election, has been interviewed by police over | :20:37. | :20:39. | |
the election spending There are strict rules | :20:40. | :20:41. | |
on what can be spent - the Conservatives have been accused | :20:42. | :20:47. | |
of bussing in party workers to marginal seats, and not counting | :20:48. | :20:50. | |
the spending as part The charges are the subject | :20:51. | :20:52. | |
of police investigations in different seats, | :20:53. | :20:57. | |
and an Electoral Commission The issue is also causing tensions | :20:58. | :21:00. | |
within the Tory party. Let's talk to our political | :21:01. | :21:04. | |
editor, Nick Watt. What has actually happened today? | :21:05. | :21:16. | |
Well to developments in this long-running story about whether the | :21:17. | :21:21. | |
Tories as you said have been using general election funding that should | :21:22. | :21:25. | |
have been for national spending on a local spend. Craig Mackinley was | :21:26. | :21:30. | |
interviewed under caution by police. He defeated Nigel Farage but Ukip | :21:31. | :21:36. | |
leader in that campaign and Nigel Farage said if there was to be a | :21:37. | :21:41. | |
by-election he could run again. And also in that campaign Theresa May's | :21:42. | :21:48. | |
chief of staff helped out in the campaign and the allegation is that | :21:49. | :21:52. | |
national funds were used to pay for hotel rooms for those staff. And the | :21:53. | :21:57. | |
second development is that, Carney, Conservative MP for Lincoln, one of | :21:58. | :22:01. | |
the MPs under investigation, has written a blistering e-mail to the | :22:02. | :22:05. | |
party chairman Sir Patrick McLoughlin effectively saying the | :22:06. | :22:08. | |
leadership is casting these MPs adrift. This e-mail is strongly | :22:09. | :22:14. | |
worded and shows the strength, it was forced reported by Sky News and | :22:15. | :22:18. | |
it says to Patrick McLoughlin, at what dazed you think you the bad | :22:19. | :22:23. | |
gene -- the party might inform us that another media storm is coming. | :22:24. | :22:30. | |
We did not create this mess, GCHQ did and their professional | :22:31. | :22:33. | |
reputations are not being trashed. What is Newsnight learned about | :22:34. | :22:38. | |
these investigations? Within the cabinet I'm hearing a confidence | :22:39. | :22:41. | |
that there will not be successful criminal prosecutions. I'm told for | :22:42. | :22:45. | |
that to happen you would have to prove intent, intent to deceive. And | :22:46. | :22:51. | |
this source told me on the central thing, this point about National | :22:52. | :22:56. | |
buses going locally and not being declared locally, it would be | :22:57. | :23:00. | |
difficult to say an MP intended to deceive on that. They may have been | :23:01. | :23:05. | |
naive but no intent to deceive. But Newsnight has significant | :23:06. | :23:08. | |
development on the story, we've spoken to a senior Tory figure who | :23:09. | :23:20. | |
has told Newsnight there is going to be trouble for the party but not | :23:21. | :23:22. | |
fatal trouble. This figure says, the party will definitely be fined for | :23:23. | :23:25. | |
breaking the rules, but this was then says they will be surprised if | :23:26. | :23:28. | |
there are criminal prosecutions and interestingly finally, the source | :23:29. | :23:30. | |
said they would be surprised if any of the MPs under investigation are | :23:31. | :23:36. | |
officially a formally unseeded and obliged to defend their seat in a | :23:37. | :23:38. | |
by-election. Thank you very much. A much anticipated general election | :23:39. | :23:42. | |
that will either be the latest uprising led by the forces | :23:43. | :23:46. | |
of populism, or the first recent The far-right candidate, | :23:47. | :23:49. | |
Geert Wilders, with his anti-Islam, anti-EU rhetoric, | :23:50. | :23:52. | |
is at or near the top His Freedom Party probably | :23:53. | :23:54. | |
won't take control of government - that would require coalition | :23:55. | :24:00. | |
partners he doesn't have. But his candidacy has put | :24:01. | :24:04. | |
the Netherlands at the centre of international attention, | :24:05. | :24:06. | |
as they cope with a diplomatic crisis with Turkey, | :24:07. | :24:08. | |
fears of Russian hacking, and the attention of | :24:09. | :24:11. | |
the American right. Gabriel Gatehouse has this | :24:12. | :24:15. | |
report from the Hague. Usually a laid-back affair, | :24:16. | :24:30. | |
comfortably ignored This time the European establishment | :24:31. | :24:37. | |
is wondering whether Dutch votes Among the 28 parties | :24:38. | :24:46. | |
vying for seats, one man The rise of Geert Wilders has left | :24:47. | :24:54. | |
mainstream politicians reeling. Close the borders, ban | :24:55. | :25:01. | |
the Koran, leave the EU The elites are struggling | :25:02. | :25:07. | |
to formulate a response. This morning, through the window | :25:08. | :25:13. | |
of a cafe on a Hague side street, the Prime Minister was taking | :25:14. | :25:16. | |
questions from passers by. It was a slightly awkward affair, | :25:17. | :25:20. | |
broadcast live on TV. In response to Geert Wilders, | :25:21. | :25:26. | |
he too is taking a hard Sometimes the Prime Minister told | :25:27. | :25:31. | |
on TV and the newspapers that people with a background that doesn't | :25:32. | :25:36. | |
want to belong here, just go away. And if the Prime Minister | :25:37. | :25:39. | |
is speaking like that, it hurts, you know, you feel like, | :25:40. | :25:45. | |
am I part of the Can I ask you a question in English, | :25:46. | :25:47. | |
from Newsnight on the BBC? Is Holland going to be the next | :25:48. | :25:59. | |
domino to fall in the sudden death So I'm fighting, | :26:00. | :26:06. | |
I'm fighting to win. And I have called this | :26:07. | :26:13. | |
the quarterfinals. The half finals will be the French | :26:14. | :26:16. | |
elections and the finals will be And this can be the first election | :26:17. | :26:19. | |
in five elections in a row, having had Brexit, having had | :26:20. | :26:24. | |
the Trump election in the US. This being the third | :26:25. | :26:28. | |
in a row of five. This is going to be the first one | :26:29. | :26:30. | |
way this domino stone So thank you very much | :26:31. | :26:33. | |
for this excellent question. And my compliments for your | :26:34. | :26:36. | |
excellent programme on BBC Two every Members of Parliament are elected | :26:37. | :26:39. | |
by proportional representation. Dutch politics is all about | :26:40. | :26:55. | |
consensus, not handbrake turns. The Dutch system basically | :26:56. | :27:00. | |
enforces compromise. Whatever happens in the election, | :27:01. | :27:03. | |
there will be a coalition, And in fact, Geert Wilders | :27:04. | :27:06. | |
even if he wins the largest number of seats, might not end up | :27:07. | :27:10. | |
being part of that coalition. But his power lies not in the fact | :27:11. | :27:14. | |
that he might become Prime Minister, His power lies in his ability | :27:15. | :27:17. | |
to shake things up. There were riots on the | :27:18. | :27:28. | |
streets this weekend. Such is the tension now | :27:29. | :27:31. | |
about the question of Islam, the government decided it was unsafe | :27:32. | :27:35. | |
for a Turkish Minister to visit. Some Dutch citizens of Turkish | :27:36. | :27:41. | |
origin were very unhappy. Others who witnessed | :27:42. | :27:47. | |
the violence were thinking well, They had flags from Turkey | :27:48. | :27:49. | |
and they yelled and they How does it make you feel | :27:50. | :27:56. | |
about this election coming up? I think many people will decide | :27:57. | :28:10. | |
to choose for Geert Wilders. By the law of unintended | :28:11. | :28:15. | |
consequences, an attempt to appease the Geert Wilders vote has led | :28:16. | :28:19. | |
to a diplomatic crisis. Turkey has suspended high-level | :28:20. | :28:22. | |
diplomatic relations Such discord between Nato allies | :28:23. | :28:25. | |
will come as an unexpected bonus to the Kremlin, | :28:26. | :28:31. | |
which has already cast its shadow Amid fears of Russian | :28:32. | :28:34. | |
hacking, the vote will be I asked the Dutch interior minister | :28:35. | :28:39. | |
what evidence he had seen I saw a cloud hanging | :28:40. | :28:45. | |
over our election results where people could conceivably | :28:46. | :28:52. | |
in this very polarised atmosphere that we also currently have | :28:53. | :28:55. | |
in the Dutch political landscape, conceivably argue that the result | :28:56. | :28:57. | |
would not be fair. And I decided I did not | :28:58. | :29:01. | |
want to take any risk with that. The mere fact of what was publicly | :29:02. | :29:09. | |
debated in the United States, in combination with the public | :29:10. | :29:12. | |
concern right now about conceivable interference, is sufficient | :29:13. | :29:14. | |
for me to decide this. But you appreciate it is a very | :29:15. | :29:16. | |
different in to say we want to eliminate all doubt, | :29:17. | :29:19. | |
but we have no evidence, to saying there is evidence | :29:20. | :29:21. | |
and therefore we have taken action. And what I say is we want to | :29:22. | :29:26. | |
eliminate all doubt and I don't... The Interior Ministry hired | :29:27. | :29:29. | |
a cyber security company to assess the vulnerability | :29:30. | :29:38. | |
of their electoral system. Fox IT had previously investigated | :29:39. | :29:43. | |
attempts to hack the Dutch government enquiry into the downing | :29:44. | :29:47. | |
of the Malaysian airline MH17 by a group known | :29:48. | :29:51. | |
as Fancy Bear or APT28, thought to be connected | :29:52. | :29:55. | |
to Russian intelligence. If we look at this group as APT28 | :29:56. | :29:59. | |
and their previous targets, the White House, Nato Allied | :30:00. | :30:03. | |
countries, the Democratic National Committee in the US, | :30:04. | :30:07. | |
the Dutch security board, so yes, it makes sense | :30:08. | :30:13. | |
that it is their daily job to breach Dutch organisations and ministries | :30:14. | :30:17. | |
to get information and to get information and an advantage | :30:18. | :30:26. | |
in the things that they're doing There is no suggestion | :30:27. | :30:31. | |
the Russians are trying to help Geert Wilders, | :30:32. | :30:34. | |
but then he has His vision of a West swamped | :30:35. | :30:35. | |
by immigrants has been influential So it is five minutes to 12 | :30:36. | :30:39. | |
for you guys as well. Here he is in Florida in 2014, | :30:40. | :30:43. | |
speaking at an event hosted by David Horowitz, | :30:44. | :30:47. | |
who is close to some of the most senior figures | :30:48. | :30:50. | |
in the Trump White House and who has given more than 100,000 euros | :30:51. | :30:53. | |
to the Geert Wilders campaign. I did not support Geert Wilders | :30:54. | :30:55. | |
because he anti-Islam. I support him because he's standing | :30:56. | :31:04. | |
up for free speech in Europe. I think all of us are happy | :31:05. | :31:07. | |
with Brexit and happy with the restoration | :31:08. | :31:10. | |
of the nation state. Because, you know, the EU | :31:11. | :31:13. | |
is an undemocratic bureaucracy. Geert Wilders took part | :31:14. | :31:21. | |
in a televised debate last night but otherwise he rarely campaigns | :31:22. | :31:24. | |
in public, preferring When the Prime Minister arrived | :31:25. | :31:26. | |
for a rally in The Hague this A pack of journalists | :31:27. | :31:40. | |
in search of a crisis. A politician in search | :31:41. | :31:44. | |
of an election. Polls will shut at 8.00pm our time - | :31:45. | :31:56. | |
there will be a decent The formal result based on a full | :31:57. | :31:58. | |
manual count takes a while - And so to France - | :31:59. | :32:03. | |
the other big election this spring. Marine Le Pen still leading | :32:04. | :32:10. | |
the polls for the first round - but trailing Emmanuel Macron | :32:11. | :32:13. | |
in the second. The challenge for her is to win | :32:14. | :32:15. | |
in a second round, when the election comes down to the final two - | :32:16. | :32:19. | |
the polls show her losing then. But much of the drama is not around | :32:20. | :32:24. | |
the top two candidates - it concerns number three, | :32:25. | :32:29. | |
Francois Fillon of the centre rght. He was ahead, poised to be | :32:30. | :32:32. | |
president, but has been caught up in a scandal, | :32:33. | :32:34. | |
allegedly hiring his own family for non-jobs | :32:35. | :32:36. | |
at the expense of the taxpayer. He has now been placed under | :32:37. | :32:41. | |
formal investigation Earlier I spoke to French | :32:42. | :32:44. | |
journalist Christine Ockrent. I asked her what happened | :32:45. | :32:48. | |
to Francois Fillon today, and how significant today's | :32:49. | :32:50. | |
development is for his campaign? Well, Evan, it's yet another turn | :32:51. | :32:55. | |
in this incredible presidential The Conservative candidate | :32:56. | :32:59. | |
has been put under full investigation by the judges, | :33:00. | :33:08. | |
which is really one step away from being formally charged | :33:09. | :33:13. | |
for embezzlement with public funds. You know, paying his wife and | :33:14. | :33:19. | |
children for supposedly fake jobs. Now, that investigation now | :33:20. | :33:24. | |
is going to take months. So paradoxically, if Fillion | :33:25. | :33:30. | |
was to be elected, which I very much doubt at this stage, | :33:31. | :33:38. | |
he would be off the track for five years because the French President | :33:39. | :33:46. | |
cannot be put to trial when actually What is interesting, though, | :33:47. | :33:49. | |
is that the core constituency of Francois Fillon is convinced | :33:50. | :33:59. | |
that he is a victim. Victim of, you know, | :34:00. | :34:03. | |
leftist media conspiracy, And so his core constituency, | :34:04. | :34:10. | |
however they have shrunk, The thing is that Francois Fillon | :34:11. | :34:15. | |
won the primaries, the Conservative And that he has been extremely | :34:16. | :34:21. | |
stubborn and indeed resilient in saying to his so-called political | :34:22. | :34:32. | |
friends, look, I'm the only And no other one can | :34:33. | :34:36. | |
actually step in. They've got until Friday to find | :34:37. | :34:43. | |
another candidate, is that right? The last, last day that they could | :34:44. | :34:47. | |
replace him is this week, and then the election rule | :34:48. | :34:50. | |
is you are stuck And my opinion is that | :34:51. | :34:52. | |
Francois Fillon will remain What effect can the Dutch election | :34:53. | :35:06. | |
have on the French election, Well, I think that if Geert Wilders, | :35:07. | :35:14. | |
who I think has been much overplayed by the French media for obvious | :35:15. | :35:21. | |
reasons, you know, the comparison If Geert Wilders does not get more | :35:22. | :35:24. | |
votes than the outgoing centre-right Prime Minister, | :35:25. | :35:30. | |
I think that will be bad news for Marine Le Pen because it | :35:31. | :35:35. | |
will show that that populist wave Although of course the Dutch | :35:36. | :35:38. | |
system is very different from ours because it's | :35:39. | :35:47. | |
a proportional vote whereas in France again it's | :35:48. | :35:52. | |
the majority vote and that's why Marine Le Pen has only two seats | :35:53. | :35:58. | |
in our Parliament today. Well we're watching that one closely | :35:59. | :36:01. | |
as we continue to do. Now if you wanted to escape | :36:02. | :36:05. | |
all the talk of Brexit by enjoying a night at the opera, | :36:06. | :36:12. | |
be careful, because there are hints The Danish citizen Kasper Holten, | :36:13. | :36:14. | |
has been director of opera at the Royal Opera House since 2011; | :36:15. | :36:20. | |
he has returned to his Danish homeland, leaving opera-goers | :36:21. | :36:27. | |
with an epic five-hour Wagner It's usually set in the 16th century | :36:28. | :36:29. | |
but Holten has introduced a more modern setting and - | :36:30. | :36:35. | |
not for the first time in his career It's being seen as a nod | :36:36. | :36:38. | |
to the changing political climate I could never do it | :36:39. | :36:41. | |
big enough for Kasper! I can't draw enough | :36:42. | :36:52. | |
attention to myself. He's 100 miles an hour and it's | :36:53. | :36:57. | |
very difficult to catch I used to be kind of the engine, | :36:58. | :37:02. | |
you know, running around and I still do that but he puts me | :37:03. | :37:09. | |
in the shade. Kasper Holten, for the past six | :37:10. | :37:13. | |
years the energetic Dane in charge of opera at London's | :37:14. | :37:29. | |
Royal Opera House. Holten's now departed leaving | :37:30. | :37:31. | |
as his swansong a new take on Wagner's Die Meistersinger von | :37:32. | :37:34. | |
Nurnberg. Instead of the usual setting | :37:35. | :37:37. | |
in a small German town, Holten's moved the opera to a smart | :37:38. | :37:43. | |
London gentleman's club. It talks a lot about guilt and clubs | :37:44. | :37:51. | |
and groups and tradition. I must admit coming to London | :37:52. | :38:01. | |
understanding that there are still clubs where women are not | :38:02. | :38:05. | |
allowed members in 2017, that that's even legal, | :38:06. | :38:08. | |
was to me a shock and that sense of tradition is something that | :38:09. | :38:11. | |
I think must be subverted. Wagner's Meistersinger | :38:12. | :38:17. | |
is all about subverting It tells the story of a guild | :38:18. | :38:19. | |
of master singers who hold The prize, remember this is set more | :38:20. | :38:26. | |
than 500 years ago, is marriage Into the fray comes an outsider | :38:27. | :38:30. | |
with a very different Nurnberg is a village, it becomes | :38:31. | :38:41. | |
alive in the Meistersinger and then this new virus comes into town that | :38:42. | :38:50. | |
keeps these old men on the balls of their feet and will | :38:51. | :38:54. | |
they accept something new? Die Meistersinger is about change | :38:55. | :39:01. | |
and about the new but also So of course you could bring our | :39:02. | :39:07. | |
Brexit into a piece like this. I think it's very timely, | :39:08. | :39:15. | |
there is change everywhere and we just have to look | :39:16. | :39:17. | |
here in England, in America, It's topical, you know, | :39:18. | :39:20. | |
there is kind of a sinister This populist kind of message that's | :39:21. | :39:25. | |
going out from a lot of politicians When you're directing | :39:26. | :39:33. | |
Meistersinger a lot of people ask about nationalism | :39:34. | :39:40. | |
what are you going to do about that because there is a famous speech | :39:41. | :39:43. | |
towards the end where it's about national identity | :39:44. | :39:46. | |
and national tradition. In the opera Bryn Terfel's | :39:47. | :39:50. | |
character sings of fighting for a sovereign Germany in the face | :39:51. | :40:12. | |
of foreign invaders. On the surface, he's | :40:13. | :40:21. | |
referring to German music traditions but the undertone | :40:22. | :40:25. | |
is about much more. You can say it's an opera | :40:26. | :40:30. | |
about Brexit, you can say it's an opera about populism, | :40:31. | :40:38. | |
you can say it's an opera about London in the sense that | :40:39. | :40:41. | |
all these things are about change. All these things are about fear, | :40:42. | :40:46. | |
about people struggling with how For sure, there are resonances | :40:47. | :40:49. | |
of the language around Brexit when you hear people talk | :40:50. | :41:03. | |
about the fear of foreign influences, the need to pull | :41:04. | :41:06. | |
back from the world. So certainly it feels very topical | :41:07. | :41:09. | |
in that sense but to say it's an opera about Brexit would make it | :41:10. | :41:12. | |
much more simple than it is. Kasper Holten isn't just | :41:13. | :41:16. | |
reflecting on Brexit, Trump and populism in this opera | :41:17. | :41:19. | |
but also looking back on his time in London where he hasn't always | :41:20. | :41:22. | |
been met with acclaim. A production he oversaw that | :41:23. | :41:26. | |
depicted a violent rape on stage William Tell by Rossini | :41:27. | :41:28. | |
a couple of years ago which famously here had a real, | :41:29. | :41:34. | |
you know, on first night there was a chorus of boos | :41:35. | :41:37. | |
and it felt very angry. There was a lot of people | :41:38. | :41:40. | |
in the audience really didn't So, of course when I have to portray | :41:41. | :41:42. | |
on stage a community reacting to an artist they don't like that | :41:43. | :41:49. | |
would be the natural Like it's really, everyone is like, | :41:50. | :41:52. | |
I am sorry is it just me, is this I had an almost physical reaction | :41:53. | :42:05. | |
remembering what it was like that I can't imagine, I don't know | :42:06. | :42:09. | |
what it would be like to stand on the stage having just offered up | :42:10. | :42:17. | |
something that you really care about and have people yell boo | :42:18. | :42:20. | |
at you and it's vicious. If the production was about me | :42:21. | :42:23. | |
trying to say boo you back how primitive and stupid | :42:24. | :42:28. | |
and uninteresting would that be? The opera is not about Kasper | :42:29. | :42:30. | |
and not about Kasper's experiences but it's me trying to make it | :42:31. | :42:37. | |
real and personal. Perhaps the most personal | :42:38. | :42:39. | |
touch in this opera He's changed the ending, not | :42:40. | :42:41. | |
for the first time in his career, rejecting Wagner's happily ever | :42:42. | :42:46. | |
after finale where the tenor gets the girl and joins | :42:47. | :42:51. | |
the Meistersinger singers. In Holten's production, | :42:52. | :42:53. | |
she turns them all down Somewhat controversial, it's a nod, | :42:54. | :42:55. | |
albeit a subtle one, to a rejection of populism | :42:56. | :43:03. | |
of any kind. Hello. In the clearer rural parts of | :43:04. | :43:28. | |
eastern and northern England and Scotland tonight there could be a | :43:29. | :43:30. | |
touch of frost around but sunny spells to begin the day tomorrow. A | :43:31. | :43:34. | |
lot of cloud in the west from the word go tomorrow. Damp and drizzly | :43:35. | :43:36. | |
in the morning | :43:37. | :43:37. |