Results Part 3 Northern Ireland Elections


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Results Part 3

Mark Carruthers and Tara Mills present live coverage and analysis of the Westminster election results as they come in from the 18 constituencies across Northern Ireland.


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Ireland and experts on hand to analyse the latest assembly results.

:00:00.:00:00.

We can go to them to get up to speed. People have picked up on this

:00:00.:00:09.

as one of the lines of the day, because it sums up the brutal nature

:00:10.:00:15.

of politics. Danny Kennedy, not expected to lose his seat, but he

:00:16.:00:19.

has gone. He feared he was going to lose it. That is why he was so quick

:00:20.:00:24.

out of the traps to say that Mike Nesbitt should not have said what he

:00:25.:00:26.

said about transferrin. It was clear that he had been given

:00:27.:00:51.

transfers before, but I should say, I got something wrong earlier when I

:00:52.:00:59.

said she had worked in his office. That was not so. I don't know how my

:01:00.:01:04.

source got that wrong. But I got that wrong. Hopefully a minor point.

:01:05.:01:18.

One of those things you pick up. Thanks to our viewers who have

:01:19.:01:24.

joined us from the BBC News Channel, this is our continued coverage of

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the Northern Ireland assembly elections. Thanks for being with us.

:01:27.:01:40.

What have you made of what has been happening in the last couple of

:01:41.:01:44.

hours? Keeping a very close eye on developments. How is the picture

:01:45.:01:51.

filling out? I genuinely did not see the Lord Morrow elimination coming.

:01:52.:01:57.

And if you considered the three Sinn Fein seats there now, that is really

:01:58.:02:04.

quite a big statement. By the Sinn Fein party. Their gonna leaders of

:02:05.:02:13.

unionism who were a bit shocked. Mike Nesbitt looked very weary of it

:02:14.:02:20.

all. It looked like he was relieved to be resigning, and I think

:02:21.:02:25.

possibly because of the Lord Morrow elimination and possibly because the

:02:26.:02:31.

election was more brutal than even she thought it would be, Arlene

:02:32.:02:35.

Foster looked a bit in shock when she was giving her accept and

:02:36.:02:40.

speech. There wasn't a single mention of Sinn Fein anywhere in it

:02:41.:02:45.

-- acceptance. She has declined to be interviewed by the BBC so far,

:02:46.:02:49.

but we're hoping she will talk to us tomorrow. She has opted to go home

:02:50.:02:54.

without giving a detailed interview to the BBC. Uncharacteristic. I do

:02:55.:03:04.

find it strange. She gave an interview to the TV in Ireland. The

:03:05.:03:11.

DUP are hurting tonight and they will regroup. If Mike Nesbitt had

:03:12.:03:17.

not resigned we would be talking more about her position, but

:03:18.:03:22.

politics is a rough trade. It is a dirty and rough business and we saw

:03:23.:03:27.

today how rough it can get. The DUP were surprised by how rough it has

:03:28.:03:31.

got. What about Mike Nesbitt's decision to go? I mentioned the

:03:32.:03:38.

political editor 15 years ago, you work with Mike Nesbitt in this

:03:39.:03:41.

building, as to die, over many years. Were you surprised that he

:03:42.:03:46.

launched that pre-emptive strike and fell on his sword? -- as did I.

:03:47.:03:54.

Earlier than maybe he had to, because people were surprised he did

:03:55.:03:58.

it so quickly. The results are not good but not as bad as it might have

:03:59.:04:03.

been. At this stage. There is a view that it is very bad, he did a bad

:04:04.:04:07.

election the last time and here he is facing the DUP under pressure.

:04:08.:04:11.

Arlene Foster is the goalkeeper and he has the penalty kick and he

:04:12.:04:17.

misses the door. You think he had to go? Yes. When he realised himself he

:04:18.:04:23.

was going to go, is Basic instinct were as a journalist and he wanted

:04:24.:04:27.

to get to the punch line first bash his basic instinct.

:04:28.:04:31.

But then maybe you could get all 18 counts finished and then make an

:04:32.:04:37.

announcement tomorrow, or Sunday. But to do it when people are still

:04:38.:04:41.

fighting for seats within his party, that seemed a little bit previous.

:04:42.:04:48.

Yes, it looks like that, but I think the devastation that he probably was

:04:49.:04:52.

feeling having made no headway against the DUP under such pressure,

:04:53.:04:58.

and watching the Alliance party, it will not be making headway in terms

:04:59.:05:00.

of seats, but they have the same number of seats as they had before

:05:01.:05:06.

it all started. I think the nature of Mike, I've known him 30 years and

:05:07.:05:12.

he just wanted to be rid of this. He will be staying on until they decide

:05:13.:05:17.

what they want to do, and that is a huge moment for the Ulster Unionist

:05:18.:05:20.

Party and I don't think they will take that decision quickly. I want

:05:21.:05:25.

to talk to Peter Wear who is the former education minister.

:05:26.:05:33.

Congratulations to you. You had a bit of a gamble. You did not think

:05:34.:05:42.

you could hold onto your seat, but you moved to where you thought you

:05:43.:05:45.

could win a seat and the gamble has paid off. Facing a fresh challenge,

:05:46.:05:55.

moving from a different number of seats created problems for all

:05:56.:06:00.

parties, but I'm delighted that the people here have placed their trust

:06:01.:06:05.

in me and I hope to repay them. Everybody thought it was a tall

:06:06.:06:11.

order for the DUP to have three outgoing ministers in the battle for

:06:12.:06:15.

seats and to hold them, but you have done that, that's a very good result

:06:16.:06:21.

for the DUP in Strangford. You have got one and so have the Alliance

:06:22.:06:30.

party and the Ulster Unionist Party. You are pleased with our

:06:31.:06:39.

performance. How did you do overall? Sometimes, this is the group of

:06:40.:06:45.

death, you might refer to it, like in the football World Cup. It was a

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mixed picture, we succeeded in some areas but we are disappointed to

:06:51.:06:55.

lose some great colleagues. And I commiserate with anyone who has lost

:06:56.:06:59.

a seat, it is very tough. Politics can be very brutal, but there is

:07:00.:07:02.

great talent which has been lost to the assembly through the election.

:07:03.:07:10.

That is quite sad. I want to talk about Mike Nesbitt and his decision

:07:11.:07:11.

to resign. Mike has got to make his own

:07:12.:07:28.

decision, think about what happens in the internal mechanism. I wish

:07:29.:07:36.

him well for the future. I wish him well but I don't know what he sees

:07:37.:07:42.

as his future. Maybe this is an opportunity for unionism to come

:07:43.:07:47.

together. We have seen a brutal and action, and one of the

:07:48.:07:49.

disappointments many Unionists will see is that we did not maximise our

:07:50.:07:58.

seats. That is something that we do need to tackle. And also see how

:07:59.:08:02.

best we can move things forward in Northern Ireland. Do you feel Mike

:08:03.:08:09.

Nesbitt's pain this evening? He has been leader five years and he made

:08:10.:08:12.

the claims in this election but he didn't deliver on them and he has

:08:13.:08:17.

now fallen on his sword. There is a personal price in these

:08:18.:08:23.

circumstances. To be fair, we can look at politicians and I know

:08:24.:08:26.

sometimes people can castigate them, but there is a personal life behind

:08:27.:08:32.

that. Family life. It can take a toll on families. I've great

:08:33.:08:38.

personal sympathy for Mike and in whatever avenue he pursues,

:08:39.:08:43.

remaining as a Strangford LMA, I wishing well, and there have been

:08:44.:08:49.

disagreements, areas where myself and colleagues have not agreed with

:08:50.:08:52.

Mike Nesbitt, but it has not been personal. And therefore I wishing

:08:53.:09:03.

well. Congratulations to you. We can go to West Tyrone and talk to Daniel

:09:04.:09:10.

McCrossan. He has held his seat. Congratulations, are you relieved?

:09:11.:09:14.

I'm happy and relieved and looking forward to a rest for a few days

:09:15.:09:19.

before I go back to the assembly on Monday. What about the tussle for

:09:20.:09:25.

the fourth set, the fifth seat. How did it pad out? -- pan. You manage

:09:26.:09:38.

to get home, was it a tight fight? We always had a seat in West Tyrone

:09:39.:09:43.

and I'm very happy to retain it. This is my third election in three

:09:44.:09:46.

years and we have most to increase the mandate of the party here.

:09:47.:09:51.

People came out in force and they offered their support to me, to

:09:52.:09:55.

represent them going forward. Are you confident, briefly, that the

:09:56.:10:01.

assembly will get up and running again sooner rather than later? DUP

:10:02.:10:11.

at one end of the spectrum and Sinn Fein at the other, they seem to have

:10:12.:10:14.

boxed themselves into corners and it is not entirely straightforward to

:10:15.:10:19.

see Stormont reconvening in the way that we might expect it to do. I

:10:20.:10:25.

live in hope. If they can get together before the election, there

:10:26.:10:29.

was no call for the election, but we are faced with it and the same

:10:30.:10:35.

result. My fear and the fit of the public, is direct rule. -- the fear

:10:36.:10:41.

of the public. I hope that Sinn Fein and the DUP don't want that to

:10:42.:10:44.

happen and I hope that they put their differences aside and put the

:10:45.:10:47.

interests of the people on the ground first in terms of health and

:10:48.:10:53.

education. And put aside the them and us, because this is about

:10:54.:10:56.

everybody in Northern Ireland and people are very angry and this

:10:57.:11:01.

election shows it. There has been a big increase in the nationalist

:11:02.:11:06.

turnout. Thanks for joining us. Congratulations again. We are going

:11:07.:11:13.

to go back to the panel and a moment, but first we are going to go

:11:14.:11:19.

to the Titanic exhibition centre in Belfast where the four Belfast

:11:20.:11:22.

counts have been taking place. Thank you. I'm joined by Paul Bradshaw,

:11:23.:11:32.

successfully elected. -- Paula. You must be pleased. To have retained

:11:33.:11:40.

their seats across the board. It is a nice team, people from different

:11:41.:11:43.

backgrounds with different strengths, different constituencies,

:11:44.:11:48.

and it would be nice to get back at Stormont and do what we have to do

:11:49.:11:51.

to get the place up and running again. Do you think that this

:11:52.:11:57.

possible? I think that is why they need the smaller parties, to be in

:11:58.:12:01.

those talks, because it is so divided and I think the middle

:12:02.:12:05.

ground, the progressives, who are coming through, they need to get a

:12:06.:12:12.

voice in there, to make sure that we have a strong mandate. A lot of

:12:13.:12:20.

constituents have put their faith in us to negotiate on there but half to

:12:21.:12:25.

get devolution back up and running -- on their behalf. It depends...

:12:26.:12:38.

The Ulster Unionist Party lost ground, and we have picked up from

:12:39.:12:41.

other parties, as well. 2000 votes ahead. They had to come from

:12:42.:12:47.

somewhere. Some from Unionists but also from the DUP. What about Mike

:12:48.:12:53.

Nesbitt, surprised he resign? No, I wasn't. We have seen so many

:12:54.:12:58.

casualties and a big names like Danny Kennedy. His position was

:12:59.:13:06.

untenable and he gambled so much. It was very ambitious, what he said,

:13:07.:13:09.

but he did not have the party with him. It is very much unfortunate

:13:10.:13:15.

that his political career in terms of leadership has ended. I don't

:13:16.:13:21.

know who is going to fill the void. On a personal level, what about the

:13:22.:13:26.

other casualties? People like Joanne Dobson. You work closely with her.

:13:27.:13:33.

Surprised she lost her sick? Very surprised. -- she lost her seat. We

:13:34.:13:42.

worked on the health committee and we did joint campaigning over things

:13:43.:13:45.

like cancer drugs, and that will be a big loss to them. Robbie on the

:13:46.:13:58.

health committee, as well. There will be big shoes to fill and this

:13:59.:14:02.

is a sad day for them. Thank you very much. We can now go to North

:14:03.:14:12.

Antrim, Ballymena, and hear from our correspondent. The result is

:14:13.:14:20.

completed. Both counts are over in Ballymena in the leisure centre. Mid

:14:21.:14:26.

Auster, looking at both constituencies, if you are looking

:14:27.:14:29.

for any unfamiliar faces you will not find them, but there are

:14:30.:14:33.

unfamiliar faces who have gone. Three Sinn Fein leaders have

:14:34.:14:39.

retained their sick, as did the one DUP member. -- their seat. One SDLP

:14:40.:14:53.

member has claimed a suit. North Antrim, -- has claimed a seat. They

:14:54.:15:00.

are left with Robin is one of the Ulster Unionist Party and Mervyn

:15:01.:15:02.

Storey of the DUP. Stuart McGregor has retained the

:15:03.:15:14.

seat he was co-opted into after the resignation. So many unfamiliar

:15:15.:15:21.

faces and familiar faces gone from Ballymena.

:15:22.:15:31.

We can now hear more about the numbers, crunching them on our

:15:32.:15:37.

behalf, our political editor Mark Davenport. We have to consider two

:15:38.:15:44.

constituencies, not just any constituencies, constituencies which

:15:45.:15:51.

we think might turn out to be crucial in terms of the end game.

:15:52.:15:55.

They are numbers we have had in the back of our mind. One number was the

:15:56.:16:00.

number 30 because that is what any party needs to wield a petition of

:16:01.:16:04.

concern, the veto mechanism on its own. We think potentially South

:16:05.:16:09.

Belfast and Langer Valley could play a role in that. We can have a look

:16:10.:16:19.

at that. South Belfast first of all. Three MLAs elected here. Let's have

:16:20.:16:33.

a look. He is clearly there. The other two came in for the two DUP

:16:34.:16:41.

and a green close behind. This is the battle for the numbers for the

:16:42.:16:50.

DUP. There are less than two unionist quotas but there are also

:16:51.:16:55.

floating votes. It seemed at the beginning quite probable that Clare

:16:56.:16:58.

Bayley would pick up enough transfers from the others to

:16:59.:17:02.

overtake one of the others, but we are not sure which at this stage. We

:17:03.:17:12.

are leaping through a few stages. Clare Bayley has left above

:17:13.:17:17.

Christopher Stortford. The question is where some of the transfers might

:17:18.:17:21.

go and whether they will deliver their Bayley home and whether the

:17:22.:17:24.

DUP will be able to get their couple of seats which they had previously.

:17:25.:17:33.

Paula Rachel and Claire Hammond have been elected -- Paula Bradshaw. That

:17:34.:17:43.

will leave 2000 surplus Foakes which I think will go to Clare Bayley

:17:44.:17:49.

rather than the DUP -- votes. Will the transfer be enough for the DUP

:17:50.:17:52.

candidate. That's one way they could get to 30.

:17:53.:18:03.

If they got those two and every thing else was even. There is

:18:04.:18:07.

another place where the DUP is under threat. These three candidates. This

:18:08.:18:16.

was how they stacked up. Previously the DUP had three seats here, so if

:18:17.:18:20.

they retained those three seats and the two seats, they get to the 30

:18:21.:18:28.

mark. There you can see the SDLP are some way behind. They haven't had a

:18:29.:18:34.

sit there in recent times. If we zoom forward to stage seven it is

:18:35.:18:40.

proven that Pat Catney is proving quite transfer friendly. Yes. You

:18:41.:18:47.

can see that Pat Catney got more transfers ban on the DUP candidates

:18:48.:18:56.

did. The decisive phase will be the transfer of that 3500 surplus from

:18:57.:19:05.

Butler. It could be that enough of them go to Pat Catney, not enough go

:19:06.:19:10.

to Brenda Hale, to give the SDLP a surprise victory. We think these

:19:11.:19:16.

constituencies could be crucial in determining the overall balance. If

:19:17.:19:20.

the DUP lost out in both places they could be down 28 seats, which would

:19:21.:19:27.

be about -- better heat. Under the current rules Sinn Fein would still

:19:28.:19:33.

be entitled to nominate the First Minister? Behind me we have

:19:34.:19:45.

potentially some late drama in Lisbon. We've only been waiting ten

:19:46.:19:51.

hours for an upset and the SDLP are claiming that one potentially is on

:19:52.:19:56.

the cards. As you were saying, Pat Catney and Brenda Hale look like

:19:57.:20:00.

they will flood it out for the fifth and final seat. Currently Pat Catney

:20:01.:20:06.

of the SDLP is 130 votes ahead. They are now in the process of

:20:07.:20:10.

transferring surplus votes from Robbie Butler, the only elected

:20:11.:20:17.

Ulster unionist. The SDLP says that Pat Catney ease transfer friendly to

:20:18.:20:23.

the Olveston in the nest on the basis of what happened previously.

:20:24.:20:27.

They are growing in confidence and saying lots of pacing back and

:20:28.:20:31.

forwards between Brenda Hale is, and Pat Catney. Both to-ing and fro-ing.

:20:32.:20:38.

It has been a while since I spoke to the DUP about this. They were

:20:39.:20:43.

confident at the start of play that they would have three returned. That

:20:44.:20:47.

confidence has waned in the course of the day but pick up a little with

:20:48.:20:52.

the elimination of Jenny Palmer of the Ulster unionists. But coming up

:20:53.:20:58.

is Pat Catney. We are told that they intend to finish this this evening.

:20:59.:21:06.

It could be another hour or so, who knows, but this is some late drama

:21:07.:21:14.

tonight at Lisburn. That is a fascinating situation

:21:15.:21:18.

developing for the final seat. It will be interesting to see if Pat

:21:19.:21:24.

Catney takes that seat and if it does, that is putting emotion

:21:25.:21:28.

arguably what Mike Nesbitt said, that Ulster unionists should think

:21:29.:21:34.

seriously about transferring to the SDLP. In the meantime Mike Nesbitt

:21:35.:21:40.

has resigned. I will pick that up in a moment with a panel. First, your

:21:41.:21:49.

catchphrase is always keep are lit. So you did? -- keep her lit. Yes,

:21:50.:21:58.

but it seems in this election keep her lit didn't seem entirely

:21:59.:22:10.

appropriate. In the first count we had a great day. Sinn Fein has had a

:22:11.:22:16.

great day at the leisure centre because out of the ten we emerged

:22:17.:22:23.

with six of the ten, three in each constituency. If I could just thank

:22:24.:22:30.

people who voted for us. It is very humbling to be in people's houses,

:22:31.:22:37.

to be sitting in their kitchen. We've had custard and fresh cream!

:22:38.:22:44.

Sometimes we've had the old bake together at the canteen. I know you

:22:45.:22:48.

like your apple pie and custard, so that doesn't surprise me! I swear to

:22:49.:22:54.

god I had the happiest election experience, bowing to the people up

:22:55.:23:02.

and down around Tyrone. I think it is the warmest election we ever got.

:23:03.:23:08.

In West Tyrone we got the highest ever vote. We got a cumulative total

:23:09.:23:16.

of 21,000. Previous to that a high watermark would have been around

:23:17.:23:28.

19,000. So we had such success. So much for the folksy stuff, all

:23:29.:23:31.

politics is local. But what about the serious business of the

:23:32.:23:35.

politics? What does the mandate for Barry Michael Gough and for your

:23:36.:23:42.

party, what does that give you a mandate to do over the next few

:23:43.:23:53.

weeks and months? There will be talks and Sinn Fein is arriving at

:23:54.:23:57.

those talks with an enhanced mandate. What is their agenda? Our

:23:58.:24:07.

gender is a quality and respect. I would like to see both governments

:24:08.:24:10.

involved, the Irish government and British government, because they are

:24:11.:24:15.

co- guarantors of the Good Friday agreement, which is very much

:24:16.:24:18.

relevant and needs to be implementing full, not least the

:24:19.:24:24.

bill of Rights, all of things need to be implemented. And I think my

:24:25.:24:28.

message to the DUP, who will be at the table as well, is that we are

:24:29.:24:37.

equal and toe-to-toe. The nationalists and republicans, even

:24:38.:24:40.

with a progressive agenda, have given us a mandate to say to the

:24:41.:24:45.

DUP, we are not less than equal, we are your equal, and that message

:24:46.:24:52.

needs to get home. You've got that mandate and nobody questions that.

:24:53.:24:57.

You also accept that people who voted for the DUP give Arlene Foster

:24:58.:25:01.

and her team coming back a very strong mandate as well? I do. I do

:25:02.:25:05.

accept that and I do respect that very much. But in recent weeks we've

:25:06.:25:09.

heard conciliatory tone and words from the likes of Ian Paisley Jr. I

:25:10.:25:19.

think the DUP need to reflect on their tone and language and their

:25:20.:25:23.

attitude to equality and respect. The society can only go forward on a

:25:24.:25:29.

platform of equality and respect. There are serious allegations of

:25:30.:25:32.

financial impropriety and they need to be dealt with absolutely. There

:25:33.:25:38.

will be a public enquiry which will be reported on later this year. That

:25:39.:25:44.

will happen. Absolutely. Credit to taking the lead and making that

:25:45.:25:47.

happen. Let's bring the two governments in as well. The British

:25:48.:25:53.

Prime Minister should be directly involved in the talks up ahead,

:25:54.:25:59.

because they are co- guarantors of the Good Friday peace agreement and

:26:00.:26:05.

until that is implemented in full, the rights agenda they are contained

:26:06.:26:10.

in as well. Thanks very much and we hope we will see you again before

:26:11.:26:13.

too long. Look forward to it. Right, let's

:26:14.:26:18.

talk about that. Quick word about where we are in terms of Sinn Fein's

:26:19.:26:23.

mandate. What will Sinn Fein do with a mandate? Who knows? I wonder if

:26:24.:26:28.

they know. The question for them was if they bought people out what would

:26:29.:26:32.

the people say? Were people going to blame them. And in bed too long and

:26:33.:26:37.

propping up the DUP, or were they going to row at them? What do they

:26:38.:26:43.

really want? Do they want Stormont back, even supposedly improved in

:26:44.:26:50.

some way, or do they want to go into lengthy negotiations with possibly a

:26:51.:26:54.

different outcome? I wonder how much stomach there is for devolution in

:26:55.:26:59.

the wider national scheme? I wonder how much appetite there is for

:27:00.:27:07.

Stormont among Sinn Fein's wider supporters? Do you think republicans

:27:08.:27:10.

more generally would prefer direct rule? They would prefer it in a

:27:11.:27:16.

positive way, but it had become so sickening to a lot of people and

:27:17.:27:20.

they had been turned off so much by the law and progressive picture of

:27:21.:27:26.

Sinn Fein rolling over in Stormont, which is what a lot of people,

:27:27.:27:30.

including their own supporters, were beginning to say. I think there was

:27:31.:27:38.

a bit of that. I also think Sinn Fein could tolerate a longer period

:27:39.:27:43.

of Stormont being down and out than the DUP could, both because this is

:27:44.:27:49.

in their favour, whether they see it like that or not I don't know. On

:27:50.:27:53.

the grounds that they didn't invest as much personally in each case as

:27:54.:28:02.

the DUP members and they also have their project which is going at the

:28:03.:28:05.

moment quite well for them, their votes going up. The polls are

:28:06.:28:13.

looking better. How much of a stomach they have the negotiation I

:28:14.:28:16.

don't know. How much skill they have for negotiation I don't know.

:28:17.:28:20.

Because they certainly didn't distinguish themselves all that well

:28:21.:28:23.

at many points over the last couple of years. A quick word from other

:28:24.:28:31.

members of the panel. Good news for him and his party leader, they keep

:28:32.:28:38.

their seats. What about the Pat Catney situation? There is the

:28:39.:28:45.

possibility that the best DUP will sneak a seat because of the union

:28:46.:28:50.

transfers. You could say it goes back to what Mike Nesbitt said, that

:28:51.:28:55.

of stee in voters should think of transferring to be SDLP. It seems

:28:56.:29:00.

they may have followed his advice? Yes, and Jenny Palmer's supporters

:29:01.:29:08.

have every reason to want to see the DUP suffer at the hands, given what

:29:09.:29:15.

Jenny Palmer suffered. But there is that issue that Mike Nesbitt jumped

:29:16.:29:22.

out, arguably too soon. You think so? I really do. I think both as a

:29:23.:29:28.

matter of common courtesy, and he is a courteous man, and as a matter of

:29:29.:29:33.

judgement, it was not the day to do it. There were those bad scenes of

:29:34.:29:43.

you asking and pushing, properly, of asking these flummoxed guys as to

:29:44.:29:47.

whether they were ready to pick up the mantle and they barely knew that

:29:48.:29:51.

the mantle had been cast. That's no way to leave the party. But there

:29:52.:29:55.

was a sense that it wasn't just the election results that through Mike

:29:56.:29:58.

Nesbitt. I think a lot of us watching the leader's debate were

:29:59.:30:04.

struck by how nervous he seemed, how shaky his voice was. You know as a

:30:05.:30:09.

presenter, and I do, that if you are in front of a microphone your voice

:30:10.:30:13.

gives you away quite quickly. You're tyred and switched off, whatever.

:30:14.:30:17.

His voice was shaking in that debate. I think he was already

:30:18.:30:22.

shaken, whether because he got such bad feedback from within the party

:30:23.:30:25.

and cause he was nervous about the result, it was as if he had semi-

:30:26.:30:30.

decided before the result that he did it too soon. Let's just hear

:30:31.:30:36.

about an Ofsted success. Our correspondent is down at the Titanic

:30:37.:30:46.

Exhibition Centre. We have a bit of a ray of sunshine? I have. First of

:30:47.:30:52.

all, the final declaration is about to be made in north Belfast and

:30:53.:30:58.

that's going to be Exhibition -- two DUP seats, two Sinn Fein

:30:59.:31:04.

seats. We are just waiting for the announcement in a couple of minutes.

:31:05.:31:08.

As you say, good news in east Belfast for the DUP. What we have

:31:09.:31:19.

left are three DUP candidates. We expect Bunting to be returned. It is

:31:20.:31:23.

a tossup between Robert Newton and David Douglas. The DUP themselves

:31:24.:31:29.

not calling which of those two will be eliminated at this point. But

:31:30.:31:36.

after that point I got reaction. We are delighted. We have increased our

:31:37.:31:41.

vote significantly. We've been working hard since we returned in

:31:42.:31:48.

May. I hope we can get back and get the institutions back. I am

:31:49.:31:53.

committed and that's why I came into politics, to work for ordinary

:31:54.:31:58.

people and deliver for them, whether that be health, infrastructure,

:31:59.:32:00.

education. We will always do right for Northern Ireland. Are you

:32:01.:32:04.

confident you will be able to return to the assembly and make those

:32:05.:32:07.

changes? It will be a long road ahead of us. Let's not take anything

:32:08.:32:11.

for granted. We will go into the negotiations and see what happens.

:32:12.:32:19.

INAUDIBLE. I am delighted we've increased our vote and I look

:32:20.:32:26.

forward to continued to work with the other partners in all four

:32:27.:32:31.

constituents. I've lost good friends, people who I built up

:32:32.:32:39.

relationships with since 2015. I am gutted for Cassandra and Danny. A

:32:40.:32:47.

message? I commend the party under Mike Nesbitt's leadership. He has

:32:48.:32:51.

guided me and he has been strong for me. He has been there and I wish him

:32:52.:32:57.

well. I consider him a colleague and friend. Do you fancy throwing your

:32:58.:33:01.

hat in the ring for the leadership? No. It seems clear that a DUP seat

:33:02.:33:06.

will go in. Your reflections on that? It is disappointing that

:33:07.:33:11.

naturally there will be seats lost right across Northern Ireland.

:33:12.:33:15.

That's disappointing. I spoke in the chamber on the production numbers

:33:16.:33:25.

and although we have to remember that good MLAs have lost seats

:33:26.:33:28.

across all parties. The people of Northern Ireland have been affected

:33:29.:33:33.

and I estimate the cost at ?5 million. An impact on key frontline

:33:34.:33:36.

services. We have to remember that. People were asked to come out to the

:33:37.:33:41.

polls again and they were deeply frustrated and angry. They wanted to

:33:42.:33:45.

get this thing working to get it delivered for the people.

:33:46.:33:48.

Thank you. Yes, Mark, as I said, during the interview, the official

:33:49.:34:03.

results were made for north Belfast, they joining Paul Bradley from the

:34:04.:34:08.

DUP and William Humphrey. North Belfast is complete, we have had the

:34:09.:34:14.

west Belfast count, we expect the east to be completed, and then

:34:15.:34:18.

in the next, I don't know the next in the next, I don't know the next

:34:19.:34:22.

couple of hours. The next couple of hours would be good, I am sure they

:34:23.:34:26.

would be happy with that, thank you. I wanted to pick up on those points.

:34:27.:34:34.

We have covered an awful lot of ground. A couple of things he wanted

:34:35.:34:39.

to pick up on. Two things and I am not sure the body politic in the

:34:40.:34:44.

north has understood this yet. First, Brexit has changed forever.

:34:45.:34:49.

The vote on Brexit, and the fact that a majority of people in the

:34:50.:34:53.

north, in this part of the island, want to remain. In the European

:34:54.:35:01.

Union, with all of its faults. And for the benefit of everyone, for

:35:02.:35:06.

viewers across the UK, who will be thinking, yes, the majority voted to

:35:07.:35:11.

remain in Northern Ireland, but of course it was UK wide and the

:35:12.:35:15.

majority across the UK decided I narrow margin to leave, and that has

:35:16.:35:21.

consequences for Northern Ireland. For people throughout England,

:35:22.:35:25.

Scotland and Wales, and the Scots and Welsh get it, they need to

:35:26.:35:30.

understand this is an island and the partition of the island economically

:35:31.:35:35.

and a European border on this island has had a huge impact on the

:35:36.:35:40.

selection, a huge impact. I live in a border community. I was working in

:35:41.:35:45.

the north. My husband was working in the south. One daughter is in

:35:46.:35:49.

college in Dublin and another is in college in Belfast. That is the

:35:50.:35:55.

first contact. I don't think we can overstate the impact of Brexit on

:35:56.:36:00.

this election. And the fear that people have right across border

:36:01.:36:04.

communities, from the Catholic- Protestant and ethnic...

:36:05.:36:06.

CROSSTALK Has it brought out the vote for Sinn

:36:07.:36:11.

Fein, not just a reaction to the DUP, it was Brexit? Brexit is

:36:12.:36:17.

underlying it. The other thing I saw was the ethnic minority communities

:36:18.:36:21.

coming out and they were coming out and many were voting for Sinn Fein.

:36:22.:36:27.

But the second context, and people will be reflecting tonight, and we

:36:28.:36:30.

talked a little bit about it earlier, there is now 1100 votes,

:36:31.:36:35.

roughly, between Sinn Fein and the DUP. We may have 20, I don't want to

:36:36.:36:42.

speculate on seats, it is looking at 28, whatever... You will be within

:36:43.:36:49.

one or two of each other. The north has changed forever. I know that we

:36:50.:36:57.

have heard the words to the point ad nauseam, respect, quality and

:36:58.:37:02.

integrity. There needs to be a psychological shift in relation to

:37:03.:37:06.

respect for what was the minority in the past.

:37:07.:37:08.

CROSSTALK Just hear me out. There has not been

:37:09.:37:15.

respect for me as an Irish leader, for my grandchild as an Irish

:37:16.:37:20.

speaker. As a six-year-old, he was up in Stormont protesting. I would

:37:21.:37:25.

have preferred if he wasn't. If he didn't need to do it. He was

:37:26.:37:31.

shouting up in Stormont with six -year-olds, red with anger. He said

:37:32.:37:39.

to me, why is Stormont cutting the money to my school? I don't think

:37:40.:37:45.

people get the message of what you're doing to the next generation

:37:46.:37:51.

when decisions like that I made. I don't want my grandson doing that.

:37:52.:37:57.

What needs to happen in society is a psychological shift. Listen, we

:37:58.:38:04.

don't have a DUP representative, we don't have a unionist in the studio

:38:05.:38:09.

but if we had someone from the DUP, I suspect... We don't have an active

:38:10.:38:15.

Unionist politician. Let me make this point. If there was someone

:38:16.:38:21.

from the DUP they would say that you are selective in what you talk about

:38:22.:38:25.

when you discuss the quality and they might think, and Jeffrey

:38:26.:38:28.

Donaldson made the point earlier today, there are examples he could

:38:29.:38:36.

throw at you where you respect things that don't matter to

:38:37.:38:41.

Unionists. In terms of equality, there is legislative framework and

:38:42.:38:44.

there are nine grounds on which you cannot discriminate, and Sinn Fein

:38:45.:38:48.

is clear that you cannot discriminate on political opinion or

:38:49.:38:52.

religious belief, but you also can't, and the DUP has signed up to

:38:53.:38:58.

this, on sexual orientation. But my final point on this... Very quickly.

:38:59.:39:03.

My final point is this is not just about going back to Stormont, this

:39:04.:39:08.

is about the assembly, north- south, rakish -- British - Irish. You are a

:39:09.:39:18.

Unionist but you're not a serving Unionist politician, which is what I

:39:19.:39:25.

think I was getting too. I want to break off before that and bring in

:39:26.:39:32.

our reporter. Confirmation of success and here is the man of the

:39:33.:39:40.

moment. Good evening. It is a double celebration. Not only is he

:39:41.:39:45.

re-elected, it is his 39th birthday. Birthday cake tonight? It won't be

:39:46.:39:52.

my birthday by the time I get out of here, unfortunately, but double

:39:53.:39:57.

cause for celebration, delighted to be re-elected by the people of Foyle

:39:58.:40:01.

and determined to return it to them in terms of the work I do on the

:40:02.:40:05.

issues which matter to them. You predicted that you would win two

:40:06.:40:09.

seats and you have retained them but is there a disappointment for the

:40:10.:40:12.

on first preferences by Sinn Fein, on first preferences by Sinn Fein,

:40:13.:40:18.

that is a worry for the SDLP? There it is a wee bit of disappointment,

:40:19.:40:23.

however we have to look at the result, we have increased 3000

:40:24.:40:28.

votes, and we have managed the vote extremely well, got both candidates,

:40:29.:40:31.

and that is something to be cheerful about. Sinn Fein have increased

:40:32.:40:36.

their vote by even more. We have to look at how they did that. We have

:40:37.:40:40.

to learn from how they did that and we have to see it how we are going

:40:41.:40:44.

to increase hours in the next election. Your uncle, Mark Durkan,

:40:45.:40:49.

will he be worried about the Sinn Fein performance, it has been

:40:50.:40:54.

impressive, and he has a 6000 majority, but he is bound to be

:40:55.:40:57.

worried towards the next Westminster action? I don't think he will be

:40:58.:41:02.

particularly worried, I mean, Sinn Fein has been tremendously

:41:03.:41:05.

impressive, and well done to them for that. We will focus on our

:41:06.:41:10.

performance and I think we can improve further. We are 35% of the

:41:11.:41:16.

electorate -- we have 35% of the electorate who didn't come out to

:41:17.:41:20.

vote and we have to get them to vote SDLP. We are the strongest party

:41:21.:41:24.

against Brexit. We have been the strongest party on the day to day

:41:25.:41:27.

issues but sadly the election has become about more than the

:41:28.:41:31.

day-to-day issues. I think it is important that we look at how to

:41:32.:41:35.

move this place forward. We will be coming back with a strong team to

:41:36.:41:40.

Stormont and we determined to play our part in making Stormont for the

:41:41.:41:43.

people here in terms of delivering better healthcare, stronger welfare,

:41:44.:41:49.

better education system, these are the issues which really matter to

:41:50.:41:52.

people and these are the issues which matter to us. Do you think it

:41:53.:41:56.

can all be put together again on Monday morning when the dust

:41:57.:41:59.

settles, or have they been too many insults traded amongst the parties,

:42:00.:42:04.

with the political ramifications tonight with Mike Nesbitt going, can

:42:05.:42:09.

it be put back together? I sincerely hope that it can. I think the people

:42:10.:42:14.

want it to happen. The people need that to happen for all of the

:42:15.:42:18.

reasons I have outlined already. The SDLP will be determined to play a

:42:19.:42:22.

part in making that happen. Let's just hope that it does. Ultimately

:42:23.:42:26.

it will come down to the bigger parties. I will let you go and enjoy

:42:27.:42:29.

your birthday cake. Happy birthday. It is back to you. Thank you. Let's

:42:30.:42:36.

hear from members of the panel. John, for the benefit of people who

:42:37.:42:41.

don't know your background, you were a member of the Ulster Unionist

:42:42.:42:48.

Party, then the deputy leader of NI21, you were an independent, you

:42:49.:42:53.

lost your seat in May, so you are not an active unionist politician,

:42:54.:42:57.

but you are steeped in unionist politics, how can you respond to the

:42:58.:43:01.

talk about the equality agenda and the respect agenda? On a couple of

:43:02.:43:07.

points, the one thing I would disagree with is that this election

:43:08.:43:13.

was about Brexit. It wasn't on my sense of it, it was the old issues

:43:14.:43:22.

of what have bedevilled with us, dealing with the past, Irish

:43:23.:43:25.

language. People are concerned about Brexit. It wouldn't explain why the

:43:26.:43:30.

SDLP was under pressure given they are very strong against Brexit and

:43:31.:43:37.

campaigned on that. I think this was an election about getting into the

:43:38.:43:42.

sectarian trenches almost... What about the other issues mentioned,

:43:43.:43:49.

LGBT writes, the Irish language? You mentioned my involvement in NI21. --

:43:50.:43:58.

rights. When we had the conference I started my lines in Irish, very

:43:59.:44:05.

badly, bad pronunciation, and the fact that, bizarrely, one of the

:44:06.:44:09.

guys who does translation for Irish in the assembly is a Portadown

:44:10.:44:17.

Orangemen. Unionism as a collective almost tens to say this belongs to

:44:18.:44:21.

something else instead of recognising we need to keep

:44:22.:44:25.

ownership. Here is the reality, there are a lot of unionistplumac-

:44:26.:44:29.

Protestants who have no problem with the Irish language...

:44:30.:44:32.

CROSSTALK It has to be said that there are

:44:33.:44:36.

unionists who have a problem with the Irish language. And you see the

:44:37.:44:40.

thing about putting legislation through the assembly, especially

:44:41.:44:45.

when the DUP have 38 members, anything that they wanted to strike

:44:46.:44:48.

out other legislation that they thought was going to cost too much,

:44:49.:44:55.

instead of getting in and doing it, I mean, I accept things around the

:44:56.:45:01.

respect agenda, and comments made earlier today which Naomi talked

:45:02.:45:04.

about, about one of the biggest recruiters for Sinn Fein, Ireland

:45:05.:45:11.

has mobilised a vote for Sinn Fein, yes, a significant vote for the DUP,

:45:12.:45:17.

but she has mobilised a vote for Sinn Fein, particularly in Kent

:45:18.:45:23.

Stephenson -- consistencies to the west, that is a tremendous result.

:45:24.:45:29.

Can I just bring Stephen in, you are in a unique position to give insight

:45:30.:45:33.

into how this might work, because for the last decade he worked as the

:45:34.:45:37.

head of Kim indications for the executive, so you have been in their

:45:38.:45:41.

working alongside successive DUP and Sinn Fein leaders and trying to help

:45:42.:45:47.

them put forward their partnership agenda. Now, we are where we are, we

:45:48.:45:53.

have had an election, we don't know quite what happens next. Both of

:45:54.:45:56.

those parties go back with renewed mandate. The difficulty seems to be

:45:57.:46:00.

that they seem to think that their mandates are mutually Lousi of, so

:46:01.:46:04.

how can we move on from here? The difficulty has always been that

:46:05.:46:10.

while they could agree on a high level on the sort of things you

:46:11.:46:14.

would expect them to agree on in terms of, we need to pay attention

:46:15.:46:18.

to infrastructure, the health service, education and schools, once

:46:19.:46:22.

you get down into the detail, it all tended to fall apart -- mutually

:46:23.:46:25.

exclusive. And the problem in the politics of all of this is that when

:46:26.:46:31.

the pressure comes on, as it did in the last few weeks running up around

:46:32.:46:34.

Christmas and into the New Year, those parties tend to withdraw into

:46:35.:46:41.

themselves, don't talk to officials particularly, if you are not part of

:46:42.:46:47.

the Sinn Fein and the DUP cognoscenti, you are not part of the

:46:48.:46:51.

argument, and that sense of ourselves alone on both their parts

:46:52.:46:57.

doesn't help, because there is little light getting into this

:46:58.:47:03.

situation, so if you look at the takeaways for the DUP, well, you

:47:04.:47:07.

know, we are still there. We are the biggest unionist party, the biggest

:47:08.:47:12.

party still up for grabs a little bit, but somewhere along the line,

:47:13.:47:17.

you know, there has to be a sense of, well, let's just back this down

:47:18.:47:20.

a little bit. One other thing is, believe it or not, Peter Robinson

:47:21.:47:24.

was good at, was being incredibly magmatic when he had to be and there

:47:25.:47:28.

was a degree of pragmatism required...

:47:29.:47:30.

CROSSTALK The first to deliver pragmatism? She

:47:31.:47:34.

will have to be she is going to continue to be the leader. A quick

:47:35.:47:39.

word? It follows this point, that is why you need to move, and I give

:47:40.:47:44.

Katrina this, if you have respect you move to a genuine power-sharing,

:47:45.:47:49.

we have too many ministers acting as king in their own five -- fiefdoms

:47:50.:47:57.

and that is not good. I need to break in it as we have interesting

:47:58.:48:05.

details, Lisbon, we were talking about the battle for the final seat,

:48:06.:48:12.

we thought Pat Cagney was out of the mix, now we hear that he is back in

:48:13.:48:16.

again, can you confirm those five seats are being declared? Pat Catney

:48:17.:48:23.

will take the fifth and final seat in Lagan Valley. I am still awaiting

:48:24.:48:29.

on the official figure but I am told he beat the DUP's render hail --

:48:30.:48:35.

render hail. He will be thankful for all of the star -- of the -- Ulster

:48:36.:48:47.

you transfers. Earlier the DUP were confident of holding all of their

:48:48.:48:51.

seats and at the end of the night they are down to two. The DUP are

:48:52.:49:05.

represented by Paul given and Edwin Poots. The fifth and final seat,

:49:06.:49:10.

about to be declared, Pat Catney. That is a fascinating development.

:49:11.:49:17.

Thanks very much. Just to clarify, that has happened. It happened

:49:18.:49:21.

because of Ulster Union is transfers. Pat Catney has now won

:49:22.:49:33.

the fifth seat. It is a sweet one for the SDLP. For a long while it

:49:34.:49:45.

was very lonely in Lisburn. I hope Jenny Palmer doesn't get bad

:49:46.:49:48.

treatment of the ground after this from disgruntled DUP supporters, who

:49:49.:49:55.

will say they took Sarah to man across the line. Lisburn is one of

:49:56.:50:00.

the most bitter places behind a semi- civilised facade that I can

:50:01.:50:06.

think of. Jenny Palmer has no control of the

:50:07.:50:09.

voters. You know how such things pan out. We

:50:10.:50:14.

are just looking at pictures of the formal declaration. There is the

:50:15.:50:22.

deputy returning officer. Actually,... Buries Pat Catney as

:50:23.:50:28.

well on the left. Another little ironic thing is that Pat Catney was

:50:29.:50:33.

brought into the party by Ulster McDonald. His period as leader was

:50:34.:50:38.

pretty unhappy and ended on a pretty sad note. It must be ironic for him,

:50:39.:50:45.

watching this. And Pat Catney is a bit off a character. He owns the

:50:46.:50:52.

kitchen bar in Belfast. This could be a significant impact on the DUP

:50:53.:51:00.

Sinn Fein balance. It isn't clear who is coming out. This picture

:51:01.:51:09.

might not become clear tonight, but it will become clear tomorrow

:51:10.:51:12.

morning and that the fascinating thing. Which is really nailbiting

:51:13.:51:20.

four Arlene Foster. And could that be a defining issue for Arlene

:51:21.:51:29.

Foster? Mike Nesbitt's resignation has taken the heat off tonight. But

:51:30.:51:34.

the pressure could be on her again? Enormously. What a parting gift from

:51:35.:51:41.

Mike Nesbitt if Pat Catney gets the seat, the last seat. All bets are

:51:42.:51:47.

off. We get to that position. A fascinating situation. Let's just

:51:48.:51:55.

hear from Mark Devonport who has some more numbers for us. It is very

:51:56.:52:03.

interesting and also especially interesting for those of us who have

:52:04.:52:07.

misspent some of our youth in the kitchen. I owe Pat Catney for quite

:52:08.:52:14.

a lot of plates of mash and needs. We will have to be dealing with it

:52:15.:52:17.

in completely different circumstances. Our current thinking

:52:18.:52:21.

at the moment is that this is quite significant because it deprives DUP

:52:22.:52:25.

of the commission concerned, but we were speaking south Belfast might be

:52:26.:52:29.

the one. Lagan Valley has now nipped in and done that. Absolutely. We are

:52:30.:52:34.

now looking for the DUP finishing on 28 seats, roughly the same as Sinn

:52:35.:52:40.

Fein, although there 28th is not quite certain yet. It is possible

:52:41.:52:43.

Sinn Fein might not get as many as the DUP. One of the whole issues

:52:44.:52:48.

that led to Mike Nesbitt stepping down were those controversial

:52:49.:52:53.

comments he made, that he would give his number, as many of his

:52:54.:52:57.

candidates disagree. Let's look at some of his constituencies, where

:52:58.:53:01.

the whole business of the opposition parties transferring between each

:53:02.:53:05.

other did make a big difference. Here we have the situation where

:53:06.:53:12.

Rosemary started in sixth place and not a brilliant sixth place when

:53:13.:53:16.

there were only five seats to be elected. We have to watch Ritchie

:53:17.:53:25.

McPhillips. Rosemary said she didn't agree with the leader on this and

:53:26.:53:29.

she felt her supporters should transfer in a prounion way, but look

:53:30.:53:33.

what happens. If we raced through, Arlene Foster gets elected. Ritchie

:53:34.:53:37.

McPhillips at this point is down at the bottom. Where do his votes go?

:53:38.:53:42.

Rosemary Barton is still out of the running at this point. Then at the

:53:43.:53:50.

next stage Rosemary Barton says thank you for 1004 to -- 1471

:53:51.:53:58.

transfers. It might seem extraordinary but let's not forget

:53:59.:54:02.

that Ritchie McPhillips took his seat last year because he got over

:54:03.:54:07.

90 transfers from the Ulster unionist. That allows him to

:54:08.:54:13.

leapfrog Morris and Rosemary Barton is elected and Sean Lynch comes

:54:14.:54:19.

through for Sinn Fein. We are looking at someone else where they

:54:20.:54:24.

might also play a role. East Londonderry. Here we have a good

:54:25.:54:35.

performance by Archibald. Clare Sugden doing well. I think we did

:54:36.:54:49.

say Jerry was standing at an independent. As ever you can never

:54:50.:54:52.

predict the fortunes of the single transferable voting system. We have

:54:53.:55:01.

Clare Sugden elected. And John is begin to pick up transfers. What's

:55:02.:55:06.

happened since then is the campus of votes have been redistributed. We

:55:07.:55:12.

are now seeing that the votes from Clare Sugden are heading... They

:55:13.:55:16.

came from the Ulster unionists but may head by a Clare Sugden with

:55:17.:55:26.

John. And Sinn Fein has it in his sights. Yes. Clare Sugden now has a

:55:27.:55:33.

surplus of 600 votes. There is a gap of 81 between John and Catriona. I

:55:34.:55:39.

would have thought enough of those would drift towards the SDLP and

:55:40.:55:48.

keep them on level pegging after the election, in a situation where we

:55:49.:55:52.

have lost six of the assembly seats. The SDLP have done very well in

:55:53.:55:56.

transferring their votes to seats. They fell slightly in the share of

:55:57.:56:00.

the votes but think of the retaining their seats. On that note let's go

:56:01.:56:04.

over to the Titanic Centre.. Thank you. Joining me here are two

:56:05.:56:20.

guests. You must be delighted? Not only delighted, not only have our

:56:21.:56:25.

present it is gone up but if you compared it to last May there is a

:56:26.:56:29.

difference of 3000 additional votes. -- percentages gone up. That's a

:56:30.:56:35.

substantial. One of the main reasons for that is especially a around

:56:36.:56:43.

attitude. That was felt quite a lot on the doors. And also this desire

:56:44.:56:51.

to get the institutions working and to physically give us all a mandate

:56:52.:56:56.

to get in and get things sorted. The DUP have done well as well? But I am

:56:57.:57:04.

not standing for the DUP, I'm standing for Sinn Fein and we are

:57:05.:57:07.

saying that our party leader has said that if we win we win for all.

:57:08.:57:12.

That's the attitude I've had and that's the attitude we will go into

:57:13.:57:16.

the institutions with. But it has been a good election for Sinn Fein.

:57:17.:57:22.

That's the position. Some of the numbercrunching that Nicholas and

:57:23.:57:25.

Mark were doing, do you think is a possibility you will end up with the

:57:26.:57:30.

same of seats as the DUP? I'm not sure, actually. We were looking at

:57:31.:57:35.

some of the figures on the screen and we are getting some late results

:57:36.:57:39.

coming in from East Londonderry, so I don't know. But we have had a

:57:40.:57:43.

really good election and the DUP have had a good election for in the

:57:44.:57:47.

middle of an election. Some of the predictions, possibly not from them,

:57:48.:57:54.

but certainly from pundits and that, have put them at a higher level. But

:57:55.:58:01.

the fact is that we have shown very positive, progressive leadership,

:58:02.:58:07.

energetic leadership, console at a -- consolidating leadership and that

:58:08.:58:13.

something the DUP have to bring back to these institutions. Lots to talk

:58:14.:58:16.

about. Let's condense it and talk about the DUP's election and the 30

:58:17.:58:21.

feet you for the partition of concern is looking guaranteed. I

:58:22.:58:25.

think the DUP would have been looking to get over 30 and they were

:58:26.:58:30.

always going to lose certain seats. They accept that that in certain

:58:31.:58:33.

places by only running two candidates, when previously they ran

:58:34.:58:38.

three. If we step out from the party politics and look at it in broader

:58:39.:58:42.

terms it's a very good election for that centre block of alliance with

:58:43.:58:45.

the Greens and non- aligning parties. It is an outstanding

:58:46.:58:52.

election for nationalism. A complete reversal of the result the

:58:53.:58:55.

Nationalists had ten months ago when Sinn Fein was the biggest loser in

:58:56.:58:59.

terms of the percentage share of the vote. That's reversed this time and

:59:00.:59:03.

it is nothing short of a disaster for unionism. Every unionist party

:59:04.:59:12.

is looking... Mike Nesbitt has quickly accepted what would have

:59:13.:59:15.

been the ultimate outcome of that result for him and Arlene Foster

:59:16.:59:18.

certainly doesn't give any indication that she is planning to

:59:19.:59:22.

follow that at this stage, that I think there will be a lot of

:59:23.:59:26.

pressure on her because to be just one or two seats, if that's where we

:59:27.:59:30.

end up, I head of Sinn Fein, having been ten seats ahead, that's a very

:59:31.:59:34.

bad result for the DUP. When it comes to Mike Nesbitt, do you think

:59:35.:59:38.

he was premature and he should have resigned? I think it pre-empted what

:59:39.:59:44.

was an inevitable decision. By the party and by him. I think it was a

:59:45.:59:49.

clever thing to do in terms of not only not leaving the issue to fester

:59:50.:59:53.

within the party, which it would have done. People were already

:59:54.:59:57.

unhappy at his comments. That was always going to come to a head if

:59:58.:00:01.

they didn't make significant gains, let alone losses, but I think it

:00:02.:00:05.

also puts a focus really back on Arlene Foster. Mike Nesbitt has now

:00:06.:00:12.

gone. The DUP result isn't as bad in many ways, after a bad result. They

:00:13.:00:16.

are still the largest party and a much bigger player. But it is very

:00:17.:00:20.

bad when you look at it across. Losing the chief whip, the party

:00:21.:00:23.

chairman and very significant figures will stop that's not a good

:00:24.:00:31.

election result. What about RHI, was that factor? It is difficult to

:00:32.:00:36.

tell. I think clearly that has reinvigorated nationalism. People in

:00:37.:00:41.

the SDLP say not only that but also Arlene Foster's crocodile remark,

:00:42.:00:47.

from that point there was a hardening of attitude where people

:00:48.:00:52.

who might have voted SDLP said, though, we want to send a message to

:00:53.:00:56.

her. So there were a mixture of factors. I think Arlene Foster's

:00:57.:01:01.

tactic of constantly drawing up the spectre of Sinn Fein being the

:01:02.:01:04.

biggest party possibly brought our voters that wanted to stop that. But

:01:05.:01:08.

I think we also see the opposite effect of that. Nationalism really

:01:09.:01:14.

drove Nationalists towards Sinn Fein to fulfil what Arlene Foster said

:01:15.:01:18.

might happen, if indeed they voted in that way. A final word from you.

:01:19.:01:23.

Did the DUP make it easy for you? Did you make gains with some of the

:01:24.:01:27.

comments they made around the crocodile narrative? I think

:01:28.:01:35.

initially it did. But I think some of the offensiveness from Arlene

:01:36.:01:39.

Foster has prompted people to come out across the board. I think she

:01:40.:01:45.

does need to reflect on what she has done as a leader. I think Mike

:01:46.:01:50.

Nesbitt jumped before he was pushed. But I think it was a collaborative

:01:51.:01:55.

decision. I think Arlene Foster needs to reflect on her own position

:01:56.:01:59.

and I am sure she will do that in the coming days. Thanks very much.

:02:00.:02:05.

We are going to have a good chat with members of my panel in a moment

:02:06.:02:13.

but before that, let's look at the overall state of the parties and

:02:14.:02:17.

bits and bobs to look at with Mark Simpson.

:02:18.:02:19.

It is shaping up to be the closest assembly election in history. More

:02:20.:02:23.

than 80 of 90 seats have been filled, including quite a few in the

:02:24.:02:28.

last couple of minutes. I don't even know what will pop up but we will

:02:29.:02:33.

give it a go. What I know for sure is the biggest party is still Sinn

:02:34.:02:39.

Fein with 26, only two fewer than the party got last time even though

:02:40.:02:43.

it is a small assembly. How close are the DUP? How many seats have a?

:02:44.:02:49.

25. Only one seat behind. It is a long way from the 38 they got last

:02:50.:02:53.

time and it is also short of the magic 30 mark but the DUP are

:02:54.:02:58.

creeping up on Sinn Fein. Who is in third place at the moment? It is on

:02:59.:03:02.

the nationalist side, the SDLP, with 11 seats. I suppose, no big deal in

:03:03.:03:10.

terms of gains for the SDLP, but Colin Eastwood will be relatively

:03:11.:03:15.

happy with that. Who is next, all is the unionist Mike Nesbitt, not

:03:16.:03:19.

happy, hasn't made any real inroads into the DUP. Look at the number of

:03:20.:03:24.

seats, ten. If you want to know why Mike Nesbitt has quit, there is the

:03:25.:03:31.

reason. No big gains for the Alliance party, they have held on

:03:32.:03:34.

with eight seats, and they will be delighted under their leader, Naomi

:03:35.:03:38.

Long. Let's have a look at the scores on the doors to see how the

:03:39.:03:42.

smaller parties and independents have done, here they are, you can

:03:43.:03:48.

see Jim Allister, the leader of the TUV, back at the back of the chamber

:03:49.:03:52.

making plenty of noise, and all eyes will be here on the front of the

:03:53.:03:56.

chamber. There is a big battle going on between the DUP and Sinn Fein,

:03:57.:04:00.

only one seat in it at the moment, to see who is going to win the most

:04:01.:04:05.

seats, it could even be a 28- 28 draw, all we know, Mark, it is going

:04:06.:04:09.

to be a close finish. Looks like it indeed, thank you,

:04:10.:04:15.

Mark. Fascinating situation. I am coming to you first, Stephen,

:04:16.:04:20.

because you are an expert on the numbers, and just to pick up on what

:04:21.:04:24.

Sam McBride, political editor said, he described it as, I think I heard

:04:25.:04:29.

it correctly, a disaster for unionism, is what he said, it is not

:04:30.:04:33.

a good election for Mike Nesbitt and he is gone, but it is not good

:04:34.:04:37.

either for the DUP. They may end up one or two seats ahead but they have

:04:38.:04:42.

lost the Chief Whip and the party chairman, they have lost significant

:04:43.:04:44.

figures like Nelson McAusland, Philip Logan. How much pressure is

:04:45.:04:53.

Arlene Foster likely to come under in the next 24 to 48 hours? I am not

:04:54.:04:58.

sure it will be the next 24 to 48 hours but pressure will be there at

:04:59.:05:02.

eventually. This has been a bad election. Matt McKay she started out

:05:03.:05:09.

the day as leader, 57,000 votes at the last election head of Sinn Fein.

:05:10.:05:16.

She may hold on to the First Minister by the 1200 votes ahead of

:05:17.:05:22.

Sinn Fein if it is a 28- 28 tie. That will send shockwaves through

:05:23.:05:26.

unionism. It absolutely is. And it will be, owning, people have been

:05:27.:05:36.

saying this, but given where she was when she took over, and the

:05:37.:05:41.

honeymoon period with the media, she seemed in vulnerable, and look at

:05:42.:05:44.

what has happened just a few months down the line. Quick word, John?

:05:45.:05:50.

Looking at the numbers, it looks like in people designating unionists

:05:51.:05:55.

and nationals, it will almost be a dead heat, you know, and then the

:05:56.:06:00.

big parties, people talked before the election if the DUP went below

:06:01.:06:05.

30, Arlene would be under real pressure, it is looking very

:06:06.:06:09.

unlikely. If it ends up as a dead heat, 28 apiece, let's speculate,

:06:10.:06:16.

the DUP would still be able to appoint the First Minister rather

:06:17.:06:21.

than the deputy First Minister because there is a margin of 1200

:06:22.:06:25.

between the DUP and Sinn Fein. That is right, isn't it? Yes. It would be

:06:26.:06:33.

enough to claim the First Minister's position, though, of course, as we

:06:34.:06:37.

know, they are equal positions. That is why I want to name them. Which

:06:38.:06:42.

was part of your move. Which is the point I was making earlier. I think

:06:43.:06:49.

people should not be getting hung up on first and Deputy First Minister.

:06:50.:06:54.

Well, the unionists R. Well, there are a lot who don't -- are. This is

:06:55.:07:01.

what I am saying. We need a psychological shift now. It is

:07:02.:07:06.

50-50. Our society in the north is moving and changing and shifting.

:07:07.:07:12.

And also, earlier, John, we were debating Brexit, I am not saying

:07:13.:07:18.

Brexit was... What I am saying is it was one of the key issues and one of

:07:19.:07:23.

the reasons people came out to vote. So many people on the door said to

:07:24.:07:28.

me we don't want to be left here on our own in this little, in the six

:07:29.:07:33.

counties. I don't want to go back to that, because I want to try to look

:07:34.:07:37.

ahead. The reason they support us is not growth in the north but also in

:07:38.:07:41.

the south. Your thoughts as we enter the last minutes? I think for both

:07:42.:07:47.

political communities, it is time for a rethink. I hear what Sinn Fein

:07:48.:07:52.

say about equality and respect and it does resonate very widely in the

:07:53.:07:58.

Catholic community. And in what used to be a minority which is definitely

:07:59.:08:02.

no longer a minority. But they have to carry it a little further than

:08:03.:08:07.

that. They have to watch it on their language always. They need to go

:08:08.:08:12.

easy on things like commemorating, as Michelle did, which of course she

:08:13.:08:19.

had to do, as the first clean skin leader, but they have to watch it

:08:20.:08:22.

because it doesn't look like respect, and for unionism it is a

:08:23.:08:25.

bigger question, they lost the majority in any real sense, that is

:08:26.:08:30.

a big psychological blow right through unionism, and it really

:08:31.:08:34.

ought to call for a rethink not just from Arlene Foster, it has been

:08:35.:08:38.

personalised around her, but she isn't a single voice inside the DUP,

:08:39.:08:45.

she speaks, she spoke for DUP, in her arrogance, that has to be

:08:46.:08:51.

harbouring today. I think viewers on BBC Northern Ireland will be Dell --

:08:52.:09:02.

will be with us. We think that some results are about to come in. They

:09:03.:09:09.

could shake things. It would be otherwise to head to bed when some

:09:10.:09:13.

of the critical announcements might be just about to be made Stephen,

:09:14.:09:21.

Katrina made the point unionists shouldn't get hung up about some

:09:22.:09:25.

other things they get hung up on. You know these people well. You work

:09:26.:09:29.

with them. You have worked with lots of people and you made the point, I

:09:30.:09:33.

don't know if people caught it, you set people are hung up on it and it

:09:34.:09:42.

matters to them. It does matter. It was part of the DUP narrative for

:09:43.:09:47.

the election, front and centre. Just as a side issue for some but an

:09:48.:09:52.

important issue for others. If the DUP get to save 28, I think that

:09:53.:10:00.

their views on same-sex marriage, it will not be as easily come by and I

:10:01.:10:06.

think it would be an amazing and there will be a enormous pressure to

:10:07.:10:10.

making us like the rest of the UK in relation to that. What you think the

:10:11.:10:15.

executive McAllister, if it is running up again, might look like,

:10:16.:10:21.

presumably the DUP and Sinn Fein, but might it include the Alliance

:10:22.:10:27.

party? Do you assume the Also unionists would be in some sort of

:10:28.:10:32.

position? I think the alliance will qualify for the seventh ministry.

:10:33.:10:37.

And whether there is pressure from Sinn Fein to bring justice into it.

:10:38.:10:45.

I don't know. I think Alliance, if... They will stick with their

:10:46.:10:49.

demands on as Naomi said earlier, the things they wanted to look at,

:10:50.:10:54.

that might somehow have naturally... That people might have answered how

:10:55.:11:00.

to change the petition of concern because it is not going to be easy

:11:01.:11:09.

to come by. Unionism, and I do this, I nearly gave up my political career

:11:10.:11:13.

by telling union sometimes you are going down the wrong road on things

:11:14.:11:16.

like Irish language, instead of reflecting the Presbyterians save

:11:17.:11:21.

the language after the famine, that, you know, after the early days of

:11:22.:11:25.

home rule, the Irish and English were on the welcome sight, or when

:11:26.:11:29.

Queen Victoria visited Belfast, somehow someone came along and said

:11:30.:11:33.

this doesn't belong to you, Mark, you know, and we all took a role and

:11:34.:11:39.

went home. Instead of actually just saying this is part of my heritage

:11:40.:11:46.

just as much as yours, I am as Irish as Katrina, but identity shifts, and

:11:47.:11:52.

the fight over the First Minister stuff has worked well for the DUP in

:11:53.:12:00.

the elections I was involved in in '07 and '11 and '16, and it hasn't

:12:01.:12:06.

worked as well this time, but creating these men of straw and then

:12:07.:12:11.

wondering why nobody response, instead of actually, we need to get

:12:12.:12:17.

back to what is it we want to do, we want to be First Minister and

:12:18.:12:20.

minister, unique purpose, you want to deal with that power and

:12:21.:12:23.

responsibility, well, the waiting list is going, rising at a rate of

:12:24.:12:29.

knots, what are we doing on health, and instead of fighting over things

:12:30.:12:36.

that we don't need to, so we turned it into... Sam McBride said there

:12:37.:12:41.

has been an awful day for unionism. And unionism has to reflect. And

:12:42.:12:48.

that's why I have always said moving to one big party isn't a good idea.

:12:49.:12:52.

It is why I was against unionists. You need to give choice and change.

:12:53.:12:58.

And I hope the all star unionist party and DUP stay in the opposition

:12:59.:13:03.

-- all star unionist party. There is a lot of food for thought. There are

:13:04.:13:09.

80 seats which come in would just be Newport up. The DUP and Sinn Fein

:13:10.:13:18.

are closed on this -- on it and tuck. We will be here for the next

:13:19.:13:22.

half-hour on BBC One Northern Ireland but at this stage we say

:13:23.:13:26.

goodbye to viewers on the News Tamil who have been with us for the

:13:27.:13:29.

election coverage. Thank you for your coverage. Goodbye. -- news

:13:30.:13:36.

channel. Good evening. If you're heading to bed wondering what is in

:13:37.:13:37.

An election programme special presented by Mark Carruthers and Tara Mills, with reporters at every count centre across Northern Ireland and experts on hand to analyse the latest assembly election results.