05/02/2017 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


05/02/2017

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It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.

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Theresa May pledged to help people who are "just about managing",

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and this week her government will announce new measures to boost

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the number of affordable homes and improve conditions for renters.

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After a US court suspends Donald Trump's travel ban and rules

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it could be unconstitutional, one of the President's inner circle

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tells me there is no "chaos", and that Donald Trump's White House

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is making good on his campaign promises.

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As the Government gets into gear for two years

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of Brexit negotiations, we report on the haggling to come

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over the UK's Brexit bill for leaving the European Union -

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and the costs and savings once we've left.

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And with me, as always, a trio of top political

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journalists - Helen Lewis, Tom Newton Dunn

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They'll be tweeting throughout the programme,

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So, more anguish to come this week for the Labour party as the House

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of Commons continues to debate the bill which paves the way

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Last week, Labour split over the Article 50 bill,

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with a fifth of Labour MPs defying Jeremy Corbyn to vote against.

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Five shadow ministers resigned, and it's expected Mr Corbyn

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will have to sack more frontbenchers once the bill is voted

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Add to that the fact that the Labour Leader's close ally

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Diane Abbot failed to turn up for the initial vote -

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blaming illness - and things don't look too rosy

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The Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry was asked

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about the situation earlier on the Andrew Marr show.

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The Labour Party is a national party and we represent the nation,

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and the nation is divided on this, and it is very difficult.

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Many MPs representing majority Remain constituencies have this very

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difficult balancing act between - do I represent my constituency,

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Labour, as a national party, have a clear view.

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We fought to stay in Europe, but the public have spoken,

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But the important thing now is not to give Theresa May a blank check,

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we have to make sure we get the right deal for the country.

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That was Emily Thornberry. Helen, is this like a form of Chinese water

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torture for the Labour Party? And for journalists, to! We are in a

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situation where no one really thinks it's working. A lot of authority has

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drained away from Jeremy Corbyn but no one can do anything about it.

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What we saw from the leadership contest is on the idea of a Blairite

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plot to get rid of him. You are essentially stuck in stasis. The

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only person that can remove Jeremy Corbyn is God or Jeremy Corbyn.

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Authority may have moved from Mr Corbyn but it's not going anywhere

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else, there's not an alternative centre of authority? Not quite, but

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Clive Lewis is name emerging, the Shadow Business Secretary. A lot of

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the Labour left, people like Paul Mason, really like him and would

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like to see him in Corbyn. I think that's why Jeremy Corbyn do

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something extraordinary next week and abstain from Article 50, the

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main bill itself, to keep his Shadow Cabinet together. That clip on

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Andrew Marr, point blank refusing to say if Labour will vote for Article

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50. The only way Jeremy Corbyn can hold this mess together now is to

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abstain, which would be catastrophic across Brexit constituencies in the

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North. The problem with abstention is everyone will say on the issue of

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our time, the official opposition hasn't got coherent or considered

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policy? I love the way Emily Thornberry said the country is

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divided and we represent the country, in other words we are

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divided at the party as well. The other thing that was a crucial

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moment this week is the debate over whether there should be a so-called

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meaningful vote by MPs on the deal that Theresa May gets. That is a

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point of real danger for Brexit supporters. It may well be there is

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a coalition of Labour and SNP and Remain MPs, Tory MPs, who vote for

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that so-called meaningful vote that could undermine Theresa May's

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negotiation. So Theresa May could have had troubles as well, not plain

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sailing for her? There is no point, apart from lonely Ken Clarke voting

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against Article 50, no point in Tory remainders rebelling. It would have

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been a token gesture with no support. But there might be

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meaningful amendments. One might be on the status of EU nationals... The

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government could lose that. There might be a majority for some of

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those amendments. The ins and outs of the Labour Party, it fascinates

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the Labour Party and journalists. I suspect the country has just moved

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on and doesn't care. You are probably quite right. To be honest I

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struggled to get Labour split stories in my paper any more, the

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bar is so high to make it news. Where it does matter is now not

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everyone will pay huge amounts to the -- of attention to the vote on

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Wednesday. But come the general election in 2020, maybe a little

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earlier, every Tory leaflet and every labour constituency will say

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this guy, this goal, they refuse to vote for Brexit, do you want them in

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power? That is going to be really hard for them. The story next week

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may be Tory splits rather than just Labour ones, we will see.

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Theresa May has made a big deal out of her commitment to help people

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on middle incomes who are "just about managing", and early this week

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we should get a good sense of what that means in practice -

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when plans to bring down the cost of housing and protect renters

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are published in the Government's new white paper.

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Theresa May has promised she'll kick off Brexit negotiations with the EU

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by the end of March, and after months of shadow-boxing

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Ellie Price reports on the battle to come over the UK's Brexit bill,

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and the likely costs and savings once we've left.

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It was the figure that defined the EU referendum campaign.

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It was also a figure that was fiercely disputed, but the promise -

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vote leave and Britain won't have to pay into the EU are any more.

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So, is that what's going to happen now?

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The trouble with buses is you tend to have to wait for them

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and when Theresa May triggers Article 50, the clock starts

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She needs something quicker, something more sporty.

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According to the most recent Treasury figures,

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Britain's gross contribution to the EU, after the rebate

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is taken into account, is about ?14 billion a year.

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There are some complicating factors that means it can go up

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or down year on year, but that's roughly how much the UK

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will no longer sending to Brussels post-Brexit.

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But, there are other payments that Britain will have to shell out for.

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First and foremost, the so-called divorce settlement.

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It is being said, and openly by Commissioner Barnier

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and others in the Commission, that the total financial liability

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as they see it might be in the order of 40-60 billion

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The BBC understands the figure EU negotiators are likely

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to settle on is far lower, around 34 billion euros,

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but what does the money they are going to argue

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Well, that's how much Britain owes for stuff in the EU budget that's

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already signed up for until 2020, one year after we are

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Historically, Britain pays 12% in contributions,

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so the cost to the UK is likely to be between ten

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Then they will look at the 200-250 billion euros of underfunded

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spending commitments, the so-called RAL.

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Britain could also be liable for around 5-7 billion euros

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for its share in the pensions bill for EU staff, that's again

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12% of an overall bill of 50-60 billion.

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Finally there's a share of our assets held by the EU.

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They include things like this building, the European Commission

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Britain could argue it deserves a share back of around 18 billion

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euros from a portfolio that's said to be worth 153 billion euros.

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So, lots for the two sides to discuss in two years of talks.

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They have a great opportunity with the Article 50 talks

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because actually they can hold us to ransom.

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They can say, "You figure out money, we will talk about your trade.

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But until you've figured out the money, we won't," so I think

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a lot of European states think they are in a very strong

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negotiating position at the moment and they intend to make

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The principle is clear, the days of Britain making vast

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contributions to the European Union every year will end.

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Theresa May has already indicated that she would want to sign back up

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to a number of EU agencies on a program-by-program basis.

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The Europol for example, that's the European crime

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agency, or Erasmus Plus, which wants student exchanges.

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If everything stays the same as it is now, it would cost the UK

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675 million euros a year, based on analysis by

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But there are likely to be agencies we don't choose to participate in.

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If we only opted back to those dealing with security,

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trade, universities and, say, climate change,

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it could come with a price tag of 370 million euros per year.

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Of course that's if our European neighbours allow us.

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I wonder if they're going to let me in!

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There will also be a cost to creating a new system to resolve

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trade disputes with other nations once we are no longer part

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Take the EFTA Court which rules on disputes

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between the EU and Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.

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That costs 4 million euros to run each year,

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though in the Brexit White Paper published this week,

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the Government said it will not be constrained by precedent

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Finally, would the EU get behind the idea of Britain making some

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contribution for some preferential access to its market?

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The sort of thing that Theresa May seems to be hinting

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at are sectoral arrangements, some kind of partial membership

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Switzerland, which has a far less wide-ranging deal than Norway,

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pays about 320 million a year for what it gets into the EU budget,

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but it's not exactly the Swiss deal that we're after.

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The EU institutions hate the Swiss deal because it is codified

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in a huge number of treaties that are messy, complicated

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and cumbersome, and they really don't want to replicate

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Theresa May has been at pains to insist she's in the driving seat

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when it comes to these negotiations, and that she's

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But with so much money up for discussion, it may not be such

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Sadly she didn't get to keep the car!

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And I've been joined to discuss the Brexit balance sheet

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by the director of the Centre for European Reform, Charles Grant,

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and by Henry Newman who runs the think tank Open Europe.

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Henry Newman, these figures that are being thrown about in Brussels at

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the moment, and exit bill of 40-60,000,000,000. What do you make

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of them? I think it is an opening gambit from the institutions and we

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should take them seriously. We listened to Mr Rogers, the former

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ambassador to Brussels in the House of Commons last week, speaking about

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the sort of positions the EU is likely to take in the negotiation. I

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personally think the Prime Minister should be more concerned about

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getting the right sort of trade arrangements, subsequent to our

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departure, than worrying about the exact detail of the divorce

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settlement and the Bill. They might not let them go on to trade until

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they resolve this matter. Where does the Brexit bill, the cost of exit,

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if there is to be one, in terms of a sum of money, where does that come

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in the negotiations, upfront or at the end? The European Commission has

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a firm line on this. You have to talk about the Brexit bill and the

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divorce settlement before you talk about the future relationship.

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Therefore they are saying if you don't sign up for 60 billion or

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thereabouts, we won't talk about the future. Other member states take a

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softer line than that and think you probably have to talk about the

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divorce settlement and Brexit bill as the same -- at the same time as

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the economic situation. If you can do both at the same time, the

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atmosphere may be better natured. You have spoken to people in

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Brussels and are part of a think tank, how Revista gives the figure

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or is it an opening gambit? Most member states and EU institutions

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believe they think it is the true figure but when the negotiations

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start adding the number will come down. As long as the British are

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prepared to sign up to the principle of we owe you a bit of money, as the

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cheque, then people will compromise. What is the ballpark? You had a

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figure of 34 billion, that is news to me, nobody knows because

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negotiations haven't started but I think something lower than 60. Even

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60 would be politically toxic for a British government? I think Theresa

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May is in a strong position, she has united the Conservative Party. You

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could expect coming into this year all the Conservative divisions would

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be laid bare by Gina Miller. But she is leading a united party. Labour

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Party are divided... Coogee get away with paying 30 billion? We should

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give her the benefit of the doubt going into these negotiations, let

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her keep her cards close to her chest. The speech he gave a few

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weeks ago at Lancaster House, our judgment was she laid out as much

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detail as we could have expected at that point. I don't think it's

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helpful for us now to say, we shouldn't be introducing further red

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line. I want you to be helpful and find things out. I would suggest if

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there is a bill, let's say it's 30 billion, let's make it half of what

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the current claims coming out of Brussels. And of course it won't

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have to be paid in one year, I assume it's not one cheque but

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spread over. But we will wait a long time for that 350 million a week or

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what ever it was that was meant to come from Brussels to spend on the

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NHS. That's not going to happen for the next five, six or seven years.

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Everyone has been clear there will be a phased exit programme. The

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question of whether something is political possible for her in terms

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of the divorce settlement will depend on what she gets from the

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European Union in those negotiations. If she ends up

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settling for a bill of about 30 billion which I think would be

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politically... No matter how popular she is, politically very difficult

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for her, it does kill any idea there is a Brexit dividend for Britain.

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Some of the senior officials in London and Brussels are worried this

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issue could crash the talks because it may be possible for Theresa May

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to accept a Brexit bill of 30 billion and if there is no deal and

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will leave EU without a settlement, there is massive legal uncertainty.

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What contract law applies? Can our planes take off from Heathrow?

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Nobody knows what legal rights there are for an EU citizen living here

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and vice versa. If there is no deal at the end of two years, it is quite

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bad for the European economy, therefore they think they have all

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the cards to play and they think if it is mishandled domestically in

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Britain than we have a crash. But there will be competing interests in

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Europe, the Baltic states, Eastern Europe, maybe quite similar of the

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Nordic states, that in turn different from the French, Germans

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or Italians. How will Europe come to a common view on these things? At

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the moment they are quite united backing a strong line, except for

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the polls and Hungarians who are the bad boys of Europe and the Irish who

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will do anything to keep us happy. We should remember their priority is

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not economics, they are not thinking how can they maximise trade with the

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UK, they are under threat. The combination of Trump and Brexit

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scares them. They want to keep the institutions strong. They also want

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to keep Britain. That is the one strong card we have, contributing to

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security. We know we won't be members of the single market, that

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was in the White Paper. The situation of the customs union is

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more complicated I would suggest. Does that have cost? If we can be a

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little bit pregnant in the customs union, does that come with a price

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ticket? We have got some clarity on the customs union, the Prime

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Minister said we would not be part of the... We would be able to do our

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own trade deals outside the EU customs union, and also not be part

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of the common external tariff. She said she is willing to look at other

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options and we don't know what that will be so as a think tank we are

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looking at this over the next few weeks and coming up with

:18:40.:18:42.

recommendations for the Government and looking at how existing

:18:43.:18:45.

boundaries between the EU customs union and other states work in

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practice. For example between Switzerland and the EU border,

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Norway and Switzerland, and the UK and Canada. We will want is a

:18:55.:19:00.

country the freedom to do our own free trade deals, that seems to be

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quite high up there, and to change our external tariffs to the rest of

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the world. If that's the case, we do seem to be wanting our cake and

:19:13.:19:16.

eating it in the customs union. Talking to some people in London, it

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is quite clear we are leaving the essentials of the customs union, the

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tariff, so even if we can minimise controls at the border by having

:19:27.:19:31.

mutual recognition agreements, so we recognise each other's standards,

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but there will still have to be checks for things like rules of

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origin and tariffs if tariffs apply, which is a problem for the Irish

:19:40.:19:42.

because nobody has worked out how you can avoid having some sort of

:19:43.:19:46.

customs control on the border between Northern Ireland and the

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South once we are out of the customs union. I think it's important we

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don't look at this too much as one side has to win and one side has to

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lose scenario. We can find ways. My Broadview is what we get out of the

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negotiation will depend on politics more than economic reality. Economic

:20:04.:20:06.

reality is strong, there's a good case for a trade deal on the

:20:07.:20:23.

solution on the customs deal, but Britain will need to come up with a

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positive case for our relationship and keep making that case. If it

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turns out the Government thinks the bill is too high, that we can't

:20:30.:20:31.

really get the free trade deal done in time and it's left hanging in the

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wind, what are the chances, how I as things stand now that we end up

:20:36.:20:38.

crashing out? I'd say there's a 30% chance that we don't get the free

:20:39.:20:42.

trade agreement at the end of it that Mrs May is aiming for. The very

:20:43.:20:47.

hard crash is you don't even do an Article 50 divorce settlement from

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you go straight to World Trade Organisation rules. The less hard

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crash is doing the divorce settlement and transitional

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arrangements would require European Court of Justice arrangements. We

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will leave it there. Thank you, both.

:21:06.:21:07.

Donald Trump's flagship policy of extreme vetting of immigrants

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and a temporary travel ban for citizens of seven mainly-muslim

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countries was stopped in its tracks this weekend.

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On Friday a judge ruled the ban should be lifted and that it

:21:14.:21:16.

That prompted President Trump to fire off a series of tweets

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criticising what he says was a terrible decision

:21:22.:21:24.

by a so-called judge, as he ordered the State Department

:21:25.:21:26.

Now the federal appeals court has rejected his request to reinstate

:21:27.:21:34.

the ban until it hears the case in full.

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Well yesterday I spoke to Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant

:21:46.:21:50.

I asked him if the confusion over the travel ban

:21:51.:21:53.

was a sign that the President's two-week-old administration

:21:54.:21:55.

There is no chaos, you really shouldn't believe the spin, the

:21:56.:22:08.

facts speak for themselves. 109 people on Saturday were mildly

:22:09.:22:14.

inconvenienced by having their entry into the United States delayed out

:22:15.:22:20.

of 325,000. So let's not get carried away with the left-wing media bias

:22:21.:22:29.

and spin. Hold on, 60,000 - 90,000 people with visas, their visas are

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no longer valid. That's another issue. You need to listen to what

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I'm saying. The people who entered on the day of the executive order

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being implemented worth 109 people out of 325. Whether people won't

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travelling to America were affected is another matter, so there is no

:22:51.:22:59.

chaos to comment on. Following Iran's latest missile tests,

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National Security adviser Flint said the US was "Putting Iran on notice",

:23:05.:23:10.

what does that mean? It means we have a new president and we are not

:23:11.:23:13.

going to facilitate the rise of one of the most dangerous nations in the

:23:14.:23:19.

world. We are jettisoning this naive and dangerous policy of the Obama

:23:20.:23:27.

Administration to try and make the Shi'ite dictatorial democracy some

:23:28.:23:31.

kind of counter balance to extremist Sunni groups in the region and that

:23:32.:23:35.

they cannot continue to behave in the way they have behaved for the

:23:36.:23:39.

last 30 years. It is a very simple message. So are there any

:23:40.:23:45.

multilateral alliances that Mr Trump would like to strengthen?

:23:46.:23:51.

Absolutely. If we are looking at the region, if you listen to what

:23:52.:23:54.

President Trump has said and specifically to also the speeches of

:23:55.:24:00.

general Flint, his national security adviser, we are incredibly vested in

:24:01.:24:05.

seeing our Sunni allies in the region come together in a real

:24:06.:24:11.

coalition. The so-called vaunted 66 nation coalition that was created

:24:12.:24:17.

under the Obama administration... There was no coalition. But we want

:24:18.:24:22.

to help our Sunni allies, especially the Egyptians, the Jordanians, come

:24:23.:24:30.

together in a real partnership to take the fight to ISIS and groups

:24:31.:24:36.

like Al-Qaeda. But there is not a formal multilateral alliance with

:24:37.:24:41.

these countries. Which of the existing, formal multilateral

:24:42.:24:45.

alliances does Mr Trump wants to strengthen? If you are specifically

:24:46.:24:49.

talking about Nato, it is clear that we are committed to Nato but we wish

:24:50.:24:54.

to see a more equitable burden sharing among the nations that are

:24:55.:24:58.

simply not spending enough on their own defence so the gentleman 's

:24:59.:25:02.

agreement of 2% of GDP has to be stuck to, unlike the, I think it's

:25:03.:25:06.

only Six Nations that reach the standard today out of almost 30. So

:25:07.:25:11.

he does want to strengthen Nato then? Absolutely, he believes Nato

:25:12.:25:22.

is the most successful military alliances. You mustn't believe the

:25:23.:25:28.

spin and hype. EU leaders now see the Trump administration as a threat

:25:29.:25:32.

up there with Russia, China, terrorism. What's your response to

:25:33.:25:39.

that? I have to laugh. The idea that the nation that came to the

:25:40.:25:45.

salvation of Europe twice in the 20th century hummer in World War I

:25:46.:25:51.

and World War II, was central to the defeat of the totalitarian... It is

:25:52.:26:03.

not even worth commenting on. Would it matter to the Trump

:26:04.:26:07.

administration if the European Union broke up? The United States is very

:26:08.:26:10.

interested in the best relations possible with all the nations of the

:26:11.:26:17.

EU am a whether the European union wishes to stay together or not is up

:26:18.:26:22.

to the nations of the European Union. I understand that but I was

:26:23.:26:28.

wondering what the US view would be. Until Mr Trump, EU foreign policy

:26:29.:26:33.

was quite consistent in wanting to see the EU survive, prosper and even

:26:34.:26:37.

become more integrated. Now that doesn't seem to be the case, so

:26:38.:26:41.

would it matter to the Trump administration if the EU broke up? I

:26:42.:26:46.

will say yet again, it is in the interests of the United States to

:26:47.:26:49.

have the best relations possible with our European allies, and

:26:50.:26:54.

whether that is in the formation of the EU or if the EU by itself

:26:55.:26:58.

suffers some kind of internal issues, that's up to the European

:26:59.:27:02.

nations and not something we will comment on. Listening to that

:27:03.:27:07.

answer, it would seem as if this particular president's preference is

:27:08.:27:12.

to deal with individual nation states rather than multilateral

:27:13.:27:17.

institutions. Is that fair? I don't think so. There's never been an

:27:18.:27:24.

unequivocal statement by that effect by the statement. Does he share the

:27:25.:27:28.

opinion of Stephen Bannon that the 21st century should see a return to

:27:29.:27:33.

nation states rather than growing existing multilateral ways? I think

:27:34.:27:39.

it is fair to say that we have problems with political elites that

:27:40.:27:42.

don't take the interests of the populations they represent into

:27:43.:27:48.

account. That's why Brexit happened. I think that's why Mr Trump became

:27:49.:27:54.

President Trump. This is the connected phenomena. You are

:27:55.:27:58.

obsessing about institutions, it is not about institutions, it's about

:27:59.:28:01.

the health of democracy and whether political elites do what is in the

:28:02.:28:06.

interests of the people they represent. Given the

:28:07.:28:09.

unpredictability of the new president, you never really know

:28:10.:28:12.

what he's going to do next, would it be wise for the British Prime

:28:13.:28:17.

Minister to hitch her wagon to his star? This is really churlish

:28:18.:28:24.

questioning. Come on, you don't know what he's going to do next, listen

:28:25.:28:28.

to what he says because he does what he's going to say. I know this may

:28:29.:28:33.

be shocking to some reporters, but look at his campaign promises, and

:28:34.:28:37.

the fact that in the last 15 days we have executed every single one that

:28:38.:28:43.

we could in the time permissible so there is nothing unpredictable about

:28:44.:28:48.

Donald Trump as president. OK then, if we do know what he's going to do

:28:49.:28:54.

next, what is he going to do next? Continue to make good on his

:28:55.:28:58.

election promises, to make America great again, to make the economy are

:28:59.:29:05.

flourishing economy, and most important of all from your

:29:06.:29:09.

perspective in the UK, to be the best friend possible to our friends

:29:10.:29:14.

and the worst enemy to our enemies. It is an old Marine Corps phrase and

:29:15.:29:19.

we tend to live by it. Thank you for your time, we will leave it there.

:29:20.:29:27.

Doctor Gorka, making it clear this administration won't spend political

:29:28.:29:34.

capital on trying to keep the European Union together, a watershed

:29:35.:29:35.

change in American foreign policy. Theresa May has made a big deal out

:29:36.:29:38.

of her commitment to help people on middle incomes who are "just

:29:39.:29:41.

about managing", and early this week we should get a good sense

:29:42.:29:44.

of what that means in practice - when plans to bring down the cost

:29:45.:29:47.

of housing and protect renters are published in the Government's

:29:48.:29:50.

new white paper. The paper is expected to introduce

:29:51.:29:52.

new rules on building Communities Secretary Sajid Javid

:29:53.:29:54.

has previously said politicians should not stand in the way

:29:55.:30:00.

of development, provided all options Also rumoured are new measures

:30:01.:30:03.

to speed up building the 1 million new homes the Government promised

:30:04.:30:07.

to build by 2020, including imposing five-year quotas

:30:08.:30:09.

on reluctant councils. Reports suggest there will be

:30:10.:30:13.

relaxation of building height restrictions,

:30:14.:30:15.

allowing home owners and developers to build to the height

:30:16.:30:17.

of the tallest building on the block without needing to seek

:30:18.:30:20.

planning permission. Other elements trialled include

:30:21.:30:26.

new measures to stop developers sitting on parcels of land

:30:27.:30:30.

without building homes, land banking, and moving railway

:30:31.:30:32.

station car parks Underground, The Government today said it

:30:33.:30:34.

will amend planning rules so more homes can be built specifically

:30:35.:30:43.

to be rented out through longer term tenancies, to provide more stability

:30:44.:30:46.

for young families, alongside its proposed ban

:30:47.:30:47.

on letting agent fees. And the Housing Minister,

:30:48.:30:55.

Gavin Barwell, joins me now. Welcome to the programme. Home

:30:56.:31:04.

ownership is now beyond the reach of most young people. You are now

:31:05.:31:08.

emphasising affordable homes for rent. Why have you given up on the

:31:09.:31:12.

Tory dream of a property owning democracy? We haven't given up on

:31:13.:31:16.

that. The decline on home ownership in this country started in 2004. So

:31:17.:31:21.

far we have stopped that decline, we haven't reversed it but we

:31:22.:31:24.

absolutely want to make sure that people who want to own and can do

:31:25.:31:29.

so. The Prime Minister was very clear a country that works for

:31:30.:31:32.

everyone. That means we have to have say something to say to those who

:31:33.:31:36.

want to rent as well as on. Home ownership of young people is 35%,

:31:37.:31:41.

used to be 60%. Are you telling me during the lifetime of this

:31:42.:31:45.

government that is going to rise? We want to reverse the decline. We have

:31:46.:31:50.

stabilised it. The decline started in 2004 under Labour. They weren't

:31:51.:31:54.

bothered about it. We have taken action and that has stop the

:31:55.:31:58.

decline... What about the rise? We have to make sure people work hard

:31:59.:32:02.

the right thing have the chance to own their home on home. We have

:32:03.:32:06.

helped people through help to buy, shared ownership, that is part of

:32:07.:32:11.

it, but we have to have something to say to those who want to rent. You

:32:12.:32:14.

say you want more rented homes so why did you introduce a 3%

:32:15.:32:20.

additional stamp duty levied to pay those investing in build to rent

:32:21.:32:24.

properties? That was basically to try and stop a lot of the

:32:25.:32:28.

speculation in the buy to let market. The Bank of England raised

:32:29.:32:31.

concerns about that. When you see the white paper, you will see there

:32:32.:32:37.

is a package of measures for Bill to rent, trying to get institutional

:32:38.:32:43.

investment for that, different to people going and buying a home on

:32:44.:32:47.

the private market and renting out. You are trying to get institutional

:32:48.:32:52.

money to comment, just as this government and subsequent ones

:32:53.:32:54.

before said it would get pension fund money to invest in

:32:55.:32:57.

infrastructure and it never happened. Why should this happen? Is

:32:58.:33:02.

already starting to happen. If you go around the country you can see

:33:03.:33:05.

some of these builder rent scheme is happening. There are changes in the

:33:06.:33:10.

White Paper... How much money from institutions is going into bill to

:33:11.:33:20.

rent modular hundreds of millions. I was at the stock exchange the other

:33:21.:33:23.

day celebrating the launch of one of our bombs designed to get this money

:33:24.:33:26.

on. There are schemes being... There is huge potential to expand it. We

:33:27.:33:28.

need more homes and we are too dependent on a small number of large

:33:29.:33:31.

developers. -- to launch one of our bonds. You talk about affordable

:33:32.:33:38.

renting, what is affordable? Defined as something that is at least 20%

:33:39.:33:44.

below the market price. It will vary around the country. Let me put it

:33:45.:33:48.

another way. The average couple renting now have to spend 50% of

:33:49.:33:53.

their income on rent. Is that affordable? That is exactly what

:33:54.:33:56.

we're trying to do something about. Whether you're trying to buy or

:33:57.:34:00.

rent, housing in this country has become less and less affordable

:34:01.:34:04.

because the 30-40 years governments haven't built in times. This white

:34:05.:34:07.

Paper is trying to do something about that. You have been in power

:34:08.:34:11.

six, almost seven years. That's right. Why are ownership of new

:34:12.:34:19.

homes to 24 year low? It was a low figure because it's a new five-year

:34:20.:34:23.

programme. That is not a great excuse. It's not an excuse at all.

:34:24.:34:27.

The way these things work, you have a five-year programme and in the

:34:28.:34:30.

last year you have a record number of delivery and when you start a new

:34:31.:34:34.

programme, a lower level. If you look at the average over six years,

:34:35.:34:38.

this government has built more affordable housing than the previous

:34:39.:34:43.

one. Stiletto 24 year loss, that is an embarrassment. Yes. We have the

:34:44.:34:50.

figures, last year was 32,000, the year before 60 6000. You get this

:34:51.:34:53.

cliff edge effect. It is embarrassing and we want to stop it

:34:54.:34:58.

happening in the future. You want to give tenants more secure and longer

:34:59.:35:02.

leases which rent rises are predictable in advance. Ed Miliband

:35:03.:35:09.

promoted three-year tenancies in the 2015 general election campaign and

:35:10.:35:13.

George Osborne said it was totally economically illiterate. What's

:35:14.:35:18.

changed? You are merging control of the rents people in charge, which

:35:19.:35:23.

we're not imposing. We want longer term tenancies. Most people have

:35:24.:35:27.

six-month tenancies... Within that there would be a control on how much

:35:28.:35:32.

the rent could go up? Right? It would be set for the period of the

:35:33.:35:36.

tenancies. That's what I just said, that's what Ed Miliband proposed. Ed

:35:37.:35:40.

Miliband proposed regulating it for the whole sector. One of the reasons

:35:41.:35:45.

institutional investment is so attractive, if you had a spare home

:35:46.:35:49.

and you want to rent out, you might need it any year, so you give it a

:35:50.:35:54.

short tenancy. If you have a block, they are interested in a long-term

:35:55.:35:58.

return and give families more security. You have set a target,

:35:59.:36:05.

your government, to build in the life of this parliament 1 million

:36:06.:36:09.

new homes in England by 2020. You're not going to make that? I think we

:36:10.:36:16.

are. If you look at 2015-16 we had 190,000 additional homes of this

:36:17.:36:19.

country. Just below the level we need to achieve. Over five...

:36:20.:36:28.

2015-16. You were probably looking at the new homes built. Talking

:36:29.:36:34.

about completions in England. That is not the best measure, with

:36:35.:36:37.

respect. You said you will complete 1 million homes by 2020 so what is

:36:38.:36:43.

wrong with it? We use a national statistic which looks at new homes

:36:44.:36:47.

built and conversions and changes of use minus demolitions. The total

:36:48.:36:49.

change of the housing stock over that year. On that basis I have the

:36:50.:36:56.

figures here. I have the figures. You looking I just completed. 1

:36:57.:37:00.

million new homes, the average rate of those built in the last three

:37:01.:37:05.

quarters was 30 6000. You have 14 more quarters to get to the 1

:37:06.:37:10.

million. You have to raise that to 50 6000. I put it to you, you won't

:37:11.:37:14.

do it. You're not looking at the full picture of new housing in this

:37:15.:37:19.

country. You're looking at brand-new homes and not including conversions

:37:20.:37:23.

or changes of use are not taking off, which we should, demolitions.

:37:24.:37:28.

If you look at the National statistic net additions, in 2015-16,

:37:29.:37:34.

100 and 90,000 new homes. We are behind schedule. -- 190,000. I am

:37:35.:37:39.

confident with the measures in the White Paper we can achieve that. It

:37:40.:37:43.

is not just about the national total, we need to build these homes

:37:44.:37:47.

are the right places. Will the green belt remain sacrosanct after the

:37:48.:37:53.

white paper? Not proposing to change the existing protections that there

:37:54.:37:56.

for green belts. What planning policy says is councils can remove

:37:57.:38:01.

land from green belts but only in exceptional circumstances and should

:38:02.:38:03.

look at at all the circumstances before doing that. No change? No. We

:38:04.:38:10.

have a manifesto commitment. You still think you will get 1 million

:38:11.:38:16.

homes? The green belt is only 15%. This idea we can only fix our broken

:38:17.:38:20.

housing market by taking huge swathes of land out of the green

:38:21.:38:23.

belt is not true. We will leave it there, thank you for joining us,

:38:24.:38:26.

Gavin Barwell. It is coming up to 11.40.

:38:27.:38:28.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:38:29.:38:30.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead...

:38:31.:38:39.

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.

:38:40.:38:43.

Four weeks from now, we should know exactly who has

:38:44.:38:45.

won what in the latest Assembly election.

:38:46.:38:49.

In our first leaders' interview, I'll ask the Alliance Party's Naomi

:38:50.:38:51.

Long what makes this trip to the polls different.

:38:52.:38:54.

Will Leitch has been talking to some of the less well-known

:38:55.:38:57.

I've been looking at how you go about winning a seat for the

:38:58.:39:06.

smallest parties, in the big house. And giving the wisdom

:39:07.:39:08.

of their insight on all things political are Rick Wilford

:39:09.:39:11.

and Patricia MacBride. We're well into the election

:39:12.:39:16.

campaign - doors are being knocked, babies are being kissed -

:39:17.:39:20.

so it's time to start our series of interviews

:39:21.:39:22.

with the party leaders. Today I'm joined by the Alliance

:39:23.:39:25.

Party's Naomi Long, who is, of course, fighting her first

:39:26.:39:28.

election as the woman in charge. Power-sharing has tripped

:39:29.:39:34.

on its laces again, the place is echoing to the cries of people

:39:35.:39:39.

saying they're fed up with the same old same old -

:39:40.:39:41.

if the Alliance Party can't make major strides in this election,

:39:42.:39:44.

it's time to pack up Well, I think that is a very gloomy

:39:45.:39:55.

outlook to have. First of all, Alliance has been growing very

:39:56.:40:00.

strongly in terms of our membership. We are recruiting about a dozen

:40:01.:40:06.

people a day, probably making us one of the fastest-growing parties in

:40:07.:40:10.

Northern Ireland. We are also having people coming forward from

:40:11.:40:13.

constituencies where we previously had quite weak membership. When I

:40:14.:40:17.

took over as leader I said I wanted to strengthen the areas where we

:40:18.:40:21.

already have elected representation, and reach out beyond that poor. I

:40:22.:40:26.

hoped that I would have until the council elections in 2019 to be able

:40:27.:40:30.

to prove whether that strategy is working. I feel quite good about it,

:40:31.:40:36.

because it is an opportunity to show that we are quite serious about that

:40:37.:40:40.

average. There will have been people in places like Omar in Cookstown,

:40:41.:40:45.

and Ballycastle who will have had the those not by a Alliance who will

:40:46.:40:52.

not have done for a long time. -- Omagh. But you need to be making

:40:53.:41:05.

inroads West of the ban if you are to be considered as a serious

:41:06.:41:09.

political force. And I've just described how we're doing that. We

:41:10.:41:14.

are running candidates from those constituencies who have good

:41:15.:41:17.

background in terms of being able for example, having worked in

:41:18.:41:21.

education and health and so on, who are coming to the party now... But

:41:22.:41:27.

are they going to win seats? You are telling me you are going to grow,

:41:28.:41:32.

but it is a time of shrinkage. That's a tall order. It may be a

:41:33.:41:37.

time of shrinkage as far as the Assembly is concerned, but it is a

:41:38.:41:41.

time of growth for our lives. We are seeing new people come forward as

:41:42.:41:45.

candidates who are keen to stand. How many seats are you aiming for? I

:41:46.:41:52.

never do that, because as soon as I give you a number, you will say I am

:41:53.:41:58.

writing of the rest of the seats. I am ambitious for Northern Ireland.

:41:59.:42:02.

Well, then, you should be able to see what your target is. We are

:42:03.:42:09.

running 21 candidates... You are not going to win 21 seats. Do you think

:42:10.:42:16.

you seriously might? Remember, elections are not cumulative. What

:42:17.:42:20.

happened at the last election counts for nothing. We all go to the ballot

:42:21.:42:25.

box on the same basis, and if people come out and vote Alliance, they

:42:26.:42:29.

will get Alliance. I think it is far too easy for people to write parties

:42:30.:42:33.

of based on previous performance. If we want to look at previous

:42:34.:42:37.

performance, let's look at what the parties have delivered a vote on

:42:38.:42:42.

that basis. If you held onto the eight seats you currently have, most

:42:43.:42:46.

commentators would say you had done pretty well. I hope they do. So

:42:47.:42:53.

eight is realistic? I said I hoped people aren't that gracious if we

:42:54.:42:58.

held our eight seats. So realistically, aid is quite a big

:42:59.:43:03.

ask, in the circumstances. If you look at the previous election, Mark,

:43:04.:43:07.

on the basis of our votes in the previous election we would have held

:43:08.:43:13.

eight in a 90 seat Assembly. Now, a lot has happened since the last

:43:14.:43:16.

election, in terms of the fact we are back in another one and eight

:43:17.:43:22.

months. In terms actually of those failures being around issues that we

:43:23.:43:28.

highlighted. The petition of concern, continued paramilitaries in

:43:29.:43:30.

our communities. Those are the issues when we were asked to join

:43:31.:43:37.

the expected that made us say no. The public now have an opportunity

:43:38.:43:40.

to set that right, by electing people who are standing by things

:43:41.:43:44.

that will make the Executive work better, because ultimately I am not

:43:45.:43:48.

running 21 candidates as a protest vote, I'm running them with a

:43:49.:43:52.

positive and construction agenda for Northern Ireland that will actually

:43:53.:43:57.

deliver post election. How do you shake of the allegations that the

:43:58.:44:03.

party is middle-of-the-road and out of touch? If you are bred to make

:44:04.:44:07.

the breakthrough you hope to make, you have got nailed that. I am

:44:08.:44:13.

laughing because the idea that I am inherently middle-class is

:44:14.:44:19.

somewhat... Are you going to tell the UI not? We have people in our

:44:20.:44:25.

party from all walks of life. If anybody looks, we have one of the

:44:26.:44:30.

most diverse tickets in terms of gender, sexual orientation,

:44:31.:44:34.

disability, all of those things, and in terms of where people work and

:44:35.:44:39.

their social class. Inclusion is not just something we talk about, it is

:44:40.:44:43.

something we do, and that is what we are focused on. I actually think

:44:44.:44:48.

anyone who sees as that way is looking at very old stereotypes. Has

:44:49.:44:51.

it changed? Listen to this. Vasundhara Kamble comments on class

:44:52.:45:01.

- listen to this: Alliance They are only friendly

:45:02.:45:04.

to professional people with a certain educational

:45:05.:45:08.

and financial background, people Someone who was a member

:45:09.:45:10.

of your party until ten days ago! And who only three or four days

:45:11.:45:20.

before that sought to seek election as an MLA and was not selected. I

:45:21.:45:24.

understand people are disappointed when they don't get selected. But

:45:25.:45:30.

the question is, why would somebody who thought that was what Alliance

:45:31.:45:34.

was like one to stand? When she became a counsellor, she was

:45:35.:45:41.

selected for a seat against a young, white male solicitor. So the idea

:45:42.:45:48.

that in any way there was prejudiced against her in the party is an

:45:49.:45:57.

absolute, provable nonsense. You need to be very careful not to

:45:58.:46:03.

dismiss this out of hand? I haven't, I am aware of the situation that has

:46:04.:46:08.

taken place. So you were asleep at the wheel. Absolutely not. You

:46:09.:46:14.

should have known about this and dealt with it so it didn't get to

:46:15.:46:17.

the point that it got to. I did, I was dealing with it. We had issued

:46:18.:46:23.

disciplinary proceedings against the two councillors who had left. They

:46:24.:46:29.

admitted they had not raised an issue with me, we were aware of the

:46:30.:46:33.

problems that existed within that council group. David Ford when he

:46:34.:46:38.

was leader was dealing with that as have I been since, but they were not

:46:39.:46:41.

to do with the allegations that emerged after those councils left.

:46:42.:46:48.

So I did not dismiss it. I wrote to them and asked them to provide me

:46:49.:46:51.

with any substantive evidence that will back up those claims. Charges

:46:52.:46:57.

of ageism and racism, and middle-class snobbery at a time when

:46:58.:47:01.

you are trying to say that aligns its two breakthrough and move away

:47:02.:47:05.

from those things is potentially very damaging to you. -- the

:47:06.:47:10.

Alliance Party. Only if people look at it from the perspective of saying

:47:11.:47:13.

they are right and we are lying. We've already had quite a large

:47:14.:47:21.

article the day after in the paper saying that she did not buy the

:47:22.:47:28.

argument. It was her constituency up and only eight months ago, so she

:47:29.:47:31.

would be fairly familiar with both councillors. If you look at the age

:47:32.:47:35.

range, we were criticised in the last election, for having the oldest

:47:36.:47:42.

average age of Assembly candidate going into the elections. That was a

:47:43.:47:46.

criticism of Alliance at that time, and now we are a just? We have

:47:47.:47:51.

people on the ticket of all different ages, some of the youngest

:47:52.:47:57.

and some of the oldest. He is the difficulty. You clearly have pulling

:47:58.:48:00.

power in terms of votes, and you've done well in your constituency. Not

:48:01.:48:06.

least when you won it for Westminster in 2010. But when people

:48:07.:48:09.

go to the polling booths, they are looking at named candidates, and you

:48:10.:48:16.

are running 21, frankly many of whom they will not know, and they do not

:48:17.:48:21.

get a chance to vote for Naomi Long. That is a problem. If the party is

:48:22.:48:28.

in your image, but can also cause difficulties in places for example

:48:29.:48:33.

west of the band. Alliance is not a cult, it is a Democratic party. I am

:48:34.:48:38.

not the big cog in the machine here. I am the party leader, but it is a

:48:39.:48:43.

Democratic Party, I represent the rules -- views of the membership of

:48:44.:48:49.

the party. If I was in some way a negative in terms of drawing people

:48:50.:48:52.

into the party, we would not be recruiting at the rate we are. And

:48:53.:48:56.

those candidates coming forward, for the first time in a long time, I

:48:57.:49:01.

grounded in those constituencies. We had a contest for who would run in

:49:02.:49:07.

upper band, we haven't had that situation for a long time. Similarly

:49:08.:49:12.

for mid-Ulster. I think that is positive, but we are running people

:49:13.:49:16.

who grew up and lived in those constituencies, who know the area

:49:17.:49:20.

well, who can represent us. If people choose to vote for Alliance,

:49:21.:49:25.

are they voting for your party to go into opposition, or a Government?

:49:26.:49:28.

They are voting for us to stand on our manifesto and the five pledges

:49:29.:49:35.

we gave on the last occasion we went to the electorate. We stand over the

:49:36.:49:40.

decision we made back in May... We will make the same judgment. But

:49:41.:49:45.

what I would hope is that eight months of failure at the Executive

:49:46.:49:49.

Papal may have tempered people's views enough, that they realise that

:49:50.:49:54.

have a mandate is all well and good, but if you cannot exercise that

:49:55.:49:58.

incorporation with other parties in the Assembly, your mandate is

:49:59.:50:04.

worthless. Arlene Foster learnt that the hardware and lost her job. I

:50:05.:50:10.

have found it quite a constructive place to be, because there have been

:50:11.:50:13.

occasions when we have believed the Government is right, and there have

:50:14.:50:16.

been times when we have found they are wrong. And you were powerless to

:50:17.:50:20.

do anything about it when it fell apart. We were actually challenging

:50:21.:50:24.

Government about the issues that mattered, and I was the person who

:50:25.:50:27.

first called for a public inquiry, and there we have one, from parties

:50:28.:50:31.

have both said there would never be won. So I feel anything but

:50:32.:50:34.

powerless when it comes to the Assembly.

:50:35.:50:38.

Let's hear from my guests of the day, Patricia MacBride

:50:39.:50:41.

Rick, Naomi Long making her case there, so could this

:50:42.:50:44.

be the breakthrough election for Alliance?

:50:45.:50:47.

It could be. It depends on the extent to which the electorate takes

:50:48.:50:52.

a rational view of actually what's happened over the last eight months

:50:53.:50:56.

rather than they are climbing into the same old trench or trenches as

:50:57.:51:03.

before. A dispassionate and more objective approach to the election,

:51:04.:51:07.

weighing up the experience of the last eight months, and the kinds of

:51:08.:51:10.

alternatives being offered, gives our lines and indeed many of the

:51:11.:51:15.

smaller parties an opportunity, if there ever was an open goal at an

:51:16.:51:20.

election for the opposition parties, whether unofficial or official

:51:21.:51:23.

opposition, there is it, because there has been such a debacle over

:51:24.:51:28.

our age are. But then those parties have to demonstrate that they have

:51:29.:51:31.

got an alternative. What might help is that -- if the parties came up

:51:32.:51:36.

with a joint platform which they would agree to negotiate once the

:51:37.:51:40.

talks begin in the wake of the election.

:51:41.:51:52.

Patricia, could there be a new political mood in the country? It's

:51:53.:51:59.

going to be an interesting election, because you can only predict so much

:52:00.:52:02.

based on predicted -- percentage vote shares. The biggest challenge I

:52:03.:52:10.

think, going into the selection, is for Alliance and the other parties,

:52:11.:52:14.

and it is, are you fighting the selection on the basis of going into

:52:15.:52:19.

Government, or opposition? No party should be fighting on the basis of

:52:20.:52:23.

going into opposition, and I think Naomi's comments in her interview

:52:24.:52:29.

regarding holding the Executive to account in terms of issues around

:52:30.:52:39.

RHI and other things, there is a signal we might see Alliance coming

:52:40.:52:46.

out of opposition. There was a fairly widespread support for David

:52:47.:52:49.

Ford as Justice minister, there was the feeling he had done a good job

:52:50.:52:55.

in that role. If there is a situation there where we are forming

:52:56.:52:58.

a new Executive, the question for Alliance that should be on the

:52:59.:53:02.

doorsteps is, are you going to come out of opposition, take that Justice

:53:03.:53:07.

Minister's post in order to save the institutions? That is a big

:53:08.:53:12.

challenge, Rik. We got that position almost by default. We had to invent

:53:13.:53:17.

a procedure to enable that to happen, in effect. If Clare Sugden

:53:18.:53:23.

gets re-elected, maybe the offer will be open to her, but she wasn't

:53:24.:53:28.

the first choice. So it is a big ask for Alliance whether they will do it

:53:29.:53:33.

this time. Ford did do a reasonable job. We don't know who his successor

:53:34.:53:37.

might be, but it is an opportunity for Alliance, for sure.

:53:38.:53:44.

Thank you both - and we'll hear more from you later.

:53:45.:53:47.

Once upon a time, the Alliance Party was the new kid on the block.

:53:48.:53:50.

But there are still several smaller parties -

:53:51.:53:53.

some new, some old - trying to find a way into Stormont.

:53:54.:53:56.

Will Leitch has been looking at the runners and riders.

:53:57.:53:58.

It is less than three weeks since this snap election became a

:53:59.:54:01.

certainty, but something else was certain months earlier. No matter

:54:02.:54:04.

whom the voters choose, from now on there will be 18 fewer MLAs in the

:54:05.:54:10.

Assembly, that's 90 seats instead of 108. Amateur 5 cents per

:54:11.:54:14.

constituency instead of six, how hard is it going to be to win one?

:54:15.:54:18.

It is something the smallest parties are bound to have been thinking

:54:19.:54:22.

about. For political loyalism, that means

:54:23.:54:24.

courting votes previously cast on traditional lines.

:54:25.:54:31.

Stormont is a shambles. It is essentially politics is broken. It

:54:32.:54:35.

is not working, and if we want to fix it, there is no point in doing

:54:36.:54:39.

what we have always done. Will you to do things differently to sort out

:54:40.:54:44.

the chaos that is there. So we need new ideas, a new approach, and we

:54:45.:54:49.

need new people, to bring about change to bring it back on track.

:54:50.:54:54.

That would mean sorting out dash for cash, for a start. But the smaller

:54:55.:54:59.

parties say that is not the only issue. They talk about honesty in

:55:00.:55:05.

politics, and they cannot get an honest answer for many of their

:55:06.:55:10.

questions. People are telling us, health, housing, education, jobs,

:55:11.:55:14.

the environment, and their future. That is what they want to know

:55:15.:55:19.

about. The Conservatives have yet to win an Assembly seat here, and are

:55:20.:55:23.

looking to their strengths in Great Britain. This is an undeserved

:55:24.:55:28.

election, and the parties in Northern Ireland have turned back to

:55:29.:55:31.

form and type. So our message is we over 300 MPs, 800 odd thousand --

:55:32.:55:40.

800,000 odd counsellors, and we want to represent Northern Ireland. Other

:55:41.:55:45.

parties are hoping to represent for the first time this time around.

:55:46.:55:47.

Will Leitch reporting - and he'll be back shortly to look

:55:48.:55:50.

at another three of the smaller parties aiming for Assembly seats.

:55:51.:55:52.

Now, with a look at the political week in 60 seconds,

:55:53.:55:55.

Brexit dominated all four corners of the UK this week. And the Republic

:55:56.:56:09.

of Ireland as well. Any manifestation of a hard border would

:56:10.:56:14.

have very negative comes -- consequences. An explicit objective

:56:15.:56:18.

of the UK Government's work on Brexit is to ensure that full

:56:19.:56:23.

account is taken of the particular circumstances of Northern Ireland.

:56:24.:56:26.

The Secretary of State's appearance at a football match was pushed out

:56:27.:56:30.

of the headlines after he weighed on to the controversy over whether

:56:31.:56:34.

former soldiers are being unfairly targeted for Troubles related

:56:35.:56:39.

prosecution. We think we are carrying out our duties according to

:56:40.:56:45.

the law. And fears over what will happen, if a budget cannot be agreed

:56:46.:56:51.

after the election. I think the politicians have got to realise this

:56:52.:56:56.

cannot be left alone. Civil servants cannot be left in charge of the

:56:57.:56:58.

budget, alone. We'll hear more from Rick

:56:59.:56:59.

and Patricia shortly - but first here's Will Leitch again,

:57:00.:57:07.

with the remainder of the smaller For the smallest parties, this

:57:08.:57:21.

election brings new challenges, not least the fewer seats up for grabs.

:57:22.:57:26.

That may mean persuading voters to use a different strategy on the

:57:27.:57:31.

ballot paper. Those rules are going to directly affect us, it will be

:57:32.:57:34.

harder for smaller parties to get in, so we need the public to realise

:57:35.:57:38.

that if they go to the ballot box and put down the same votes that

:57:39.:57:41.

they have always done, they are going to get the same results they

:57:42.:57:45.

have always got, and we need change, we need a socialist alternative, and

:57:46.:57:50.

that is what our party will offer the public. There is a strong sense

:57:51.:57:54.

that although the selection came out of nowhere, the dynamics do not have

:57:55.:57:59.

to be the same as last time. For years and years, politicians have

:58:00.:58:04.

told us there is no money for public services, for jobs and services, and

:58:05.:58:08.

now for teachers to have a pay rise. Now this has been completely

:58:09.:58:15.

exposed, there is money, being transferred to private companies.

:58:16.:58:21.

One party previously focused on legalising cannabis has now decided

:58:22.:58:25.

to try and broaden its appeal. We don't see the point on focusing our

:58:26.:58:29.

energies on that now. We are going to use evidence-based practice, what

:58:30.:58:34.

happens in other parts of the world, and seeing how it can work for us

:58:35.:58:39.

here. We are applying that two issues that the other parties are

:58:40.:58:44.

not certain about. Simple, basic things that are not getting touched

:58:45.:58:49.

because of other petty fights between the parties. It still is not

:58:50.:58:52.

clear how many targets -- candidates from the small parties will stand.

:58:53.:58:56.

Nominations are open for another three days.

:58:57.:58:57.

And back to our commentators for a final thought.

:58:58.:59:05.

Patricia, do these smaller parties stand any real chance of grabbing

:59:06.:59:07.

They are fighting for just 90 seats. There are certainly going to be

:59:08.:59:16.

challenges in getting any sort of decent food. You are looking at

:59:17.:59:25.

independence, even people before profit, -- DUP -- PUP. So for the

:59:26.:59:30.

smaller parties to get in and sweep up smaller votes is going to be a

:59:31.:59:36.

challenge. The Alliance Party is doing something they have never done

:59:37.:59:40.

before in terms of managing their vote, trying to get second and third

:59:41.:59:44.

preferences. That is good to hurt the smaller parties in this run as

:59:45.:59:50.

well. I think elections always springs surprises, but I think if

:59:51.:59:54.

the smaller parties make any impression, they are all part of

:59:55.:59:59.

election contests, and it is all very welcome because one hears

:00:00.:00:03.

different voices, but I think now that parties have to get 16.5% to

:00:04.:00:13.

get elected, I think it is doubly difficult for the small parties who

:00:14.:00:14.

are trying to make an impact. Away from the election,

:00:15.:00:24.

Gerry Adams has said he will go to the White House

:00:25.:00:26.

on St Patrick's Day to meet After last year we have to ask, will

:00:27.:00:34.

he be allowed in? I think it is the appropriate thing to do if an

:00:35.:00:38.

invitation is issued, but I wouldn't suggest Donald Trump's interest in

:00:39.:00:43.

Ireland is anywhere near the same level as previous American

:00:44.:00:45.

administrations. That was illustrated if you look at the

:00:46.:00:49.

issues around Black history month and his statements there, which were

:00:50.:00:53.

very short and not at all focused on the issue. I would expect Donald

:00:54.:00:58.

Trump's White House statements to be any more detailed on Irish issues.

:00:59.:01:02.

The Vice President claims Irish ancestry, so he should be more

:01:03.:01:06.

interested, but do you imagine that most of the parties will want to be

:01:07.:01:09.

in Washington in some shape or form in March? I think it is --

:01:10.:01:16.

detestable though Donald Trump is, real politics dictates that if you

:01:17.:01:20.

are invited, you go. Donald Trump might know where the odd golf course

:01:21.:01:25.

in all it is, but I doubt he knows except they were Northern Ireland

:01:26.:01:28.

is, but George Bush didn't either. But we made some progress on his

:01:29.:01:30.

watch. programme at another time an airport

:01:31.:01:36.

expansion, but thank you to both of you for being here. Back to you,

:01:37.:01:37.

Andrew. Will the Government's plan

:01:38.:01:43.

to boost house-building Could a handful of Conservative

:01:44.:01:46.

MPs cause problems for And what is President

:01:47.:01:49.

Trump going to do next? You have been following the genesis

:01:50.:02:08.

of this housing white paper. What do you make of it? I think it will be

:02:09.:02:13.

quite spectacular, pretty radical stuff. We heard bits about beating

:02:14.:02:19.

up on developers. I understand it will be a whack, walk, covering

:02:20.:02:22.

every single problem with housing supply and trying to solve it. Which

:02:23.:02:28.

means bad news if you are a huge fan of the green belt, because they will

:02:29.:02:31.

go round that the other way by forcing large quotas on councils are

:02:32.:02:35.

making it down to councils where they build. If you fill up your

:02:36.:02:41.

brown space in towns they will have to trigger the exceptional

:02:42.:02:44.

circumstances bit of the bill to beat on green belts. Beating up

:02:45.:02:47.

developers, opening up the market for renters across the board. And

:02:48.:02:52.

Theresa May, one of the most defining thing she could do on the

:02:53.:02:57.

domestic agenda. I am not as excited as Tom about this. I look back to

:02:58.:03:02.

2004, do you remember the Kate Barker report? Successive

:03:03.:03:08.

governments, successive prime ministers have been promising to

:03:09.:03:15.

address the housing shortage. In 2004 Kate Barker recommended

:03:16.:03:18.

hundreds of thousands new homes. Gordon Brown talked about 3 million

:03:19.:03:23.

new homes by 2020 in 2007. It never happens. The reason is at the end of

:03:24.:03:28.

the day this is local politics, local councillors need to keep their

:03:29.:03:31.

seats and they won't keep their seats if there are hugely

:03:32.:03:33.

controversial developments locally that they support. Yes, the

:03:34.:03:38.

government can and are proposing to overrule councils that don't back

:03:39.:03:43.

local developments, but they may find themselves completely inundated

:03:44.:03:47.

with those cases. I think that is the whole point of it, to take on

:03:48.:03:52.

those NIMBY often Tory councils and force them to build. I can't think

:03:53.:04:00.

of a better defining issue for Theresa May than sticking one in the

:04:01.:04:04.

eye of some quite well off half Tory countryside councils. The government

:04:05.:04:10.

gives councils a quota of homes they have to fill, if they don't have to

:04:11.:04:14.

fill that all run out overland to fill the quota, the government then

:04:15.:04:18.

comes in and tells them they have to built on the green belt? How is that

:04:19.:04:22.

going to work? At the moment the green belt is absolutely sacrosanct

:04:23.:04:25.

in British politics. They'll have to do some work on educating people on

:04:26.:04:32.

what green belts means. Potato farms, golf courses... At the moment

:04:33.:04:37.

the idea people have of the green belt being verdant fields needs to

:04:38.:04:42.

be dismantled. You are right. I agree with Tom, 11 million people in

:04:43.:04:46.

the private rental sector in the UK. In the last election more voted

:04:47.:04:49.

Labour than conservative. This is an area where Theresa May would look to

:04:50.:04:54.

expand her vote. The problem has always been, the same problem we

:04:55.:04:57.

have with pension policy and why pensioners have done better than

:04:58.:05:02.

working families in recent years. They are older and they vote more

:05:03.:05:07.

and anything to the detriment of older people. I wonder how they will

:05:08.:05:15.

get private money to come in on anything like this go they would

:05:16.:05:18.

need to have a huge expansion? There is a huge amount of speculation and

:05:19.:05:23.

one of the thing that locks up the system as you have people buying

:05:24.:05:27.

land, taking out a stake of land in the hope that one point it may at

:05:28.:05:31.

some point free up. At the end of the day, unless you have councils

:05:32.:05:36.

far more willing to quickly fast track these applications, which they

:05:37.:05:39.

won't for the reason I said before, it's a very long-term investment. Ed

:05:40.:05:45.

Miliband proposed three-year leases in which the rent could only go up

:05:46.:05:50.

by an agreed formula, probably the three years to give the young

:05:51.:05:54.

families a certain stability over that period. He had a use it or lose

:05:55.:05:59.

it rules for planning development, if you don't use it you lose the

:06:00.:06:03.

planning rights. Somebody else gets it. The Tories disparaged that at

:06:04.:06:08.

the time. This is at the centre of their policy now.

:06:09.:06:13.

This is probably item number four of Ed Miliband's policy book Theresa

:06:14.:06:16.

May has wholesale pinched in the last six months or so. Why not? I

:06:17.:06:21.

think if you look at the change in mood across housing and planning

:06:22.:06:26.

over the last 5-6 years, it used to be an issue very much of green belt

:06:27.:06:31.

versus London planners. Now you have grandparents living in houses in the

:06:32.:06:34.

countryside, knowing their grandchildren can't get on the

:06:35.:06:37.

housing ladder any longer. Maybe a bit more intervention in the market,

:06:38.:06:42.

tougher on renting conditions, maybe that is exactly what the country

:06:43.:06:45.

needs. Will they meet the 1 million target? It would be a defiance of

:06:46.:06:51.

every political thing that has happened in the last ten years. I

:06:52.:06:57.

think Tom is right, if there is only one difference between Theresa May

:06:58.:06:59.

and David Cameron it's the willingness of the state to

:07:00.:07:04.

intervene. When Ed Miliband said that he was seen as communism, but

:07:05.:07:09.

Theresa May can get away with it. How serious is this talk of a couple

:07:10.:07:16.

of dozen Tories who were very loyal over voting for the principle of

:07:17.:07:22.

Article 50 but may now be tempted to vote for some amendments to Article

:07:23.:07:25.

50 legislation that they would find quite attractive? I think that

:07:26.:07:30.

threat has certainly been taken seriously by levers. I spoke to the

:07:31.:07:36.

campaign group Leaves Means Leave last night. The figure they

:07:37.:07:40.

mentioned was up to 20 remaining Tories. That sounds a lot to me but

:07:41.:07:43.

that is what they are concerned about and those Tories would come

:07:44.:07:48.

together with Labour and the SNP to vote for that amendment. Although

:07:49.:07:53.

that amendment sounds rather nice and democratic, actually in the eyes

:07:54.:07:57.

of many levers that is a wrecking amendment. Because what you are

:07:58.:08:01.

doing is giving Parliament a sort of veto over whatever deal Theresa May

:08:02.:08:05.

brings back. What they want is the vote to be before that deal is

:08:06.:08:09.

finalised. It isn't necessarily the case that if Parliament decided they

:08:10.:08:14.

didn't like that deal we would just go to WTO, we would fall out of the

:08:15.:08:18.

European Union. There are mixed views as to whether we might remain

:08:19.:08:24.

in and things could be extended. My understanding is the people making

:08:25.:08:28.

the amendments, they won any deal that is done to be brought to

:08:29.:08:33.

Parliament in time, so that if Parliament fancies it it's done, but

:08:34.:08:39.

if it does and it doesn't just mean go to WTO rules. There will be time

:08:40.:08:42.

to go back, renegotiate or think again? The question is where it puts

:08:43.:08:47.

Britain's negotiating hand. Nine of the options... Once we trigger

:08:48.:08:55.

Article 50 the two negotiation begins on the power switches to

:08:56.:08:58.

Europe. They can run out the clock and it will be worse for us than

:08:59.:09:02.

them. I don't think either option is particularly appealing. I think what

:09:03.:09:06.

seems like a rather Serena week for Article 50 this week isn't going to

:09:07.:09:10.

be reflective of what will happen next. The way the government's

:09:11.:09:14.

position is at the moment, if at the end the only choice Parliament has

:09:15.:09:19.

is to vote for the deal or crash out on WTO rules, then even the

:09:20.:09:22.

remainder is going to vote for the deal even if they don't like it,

:09:23.:09:26.

because they would regard crashing out as the worst of all possible

:09:27.:09:32.

results. Possibly. It will be a great game of bluff if Theresa May

:09:33.:09:37.

fights off any of these amendments on Wednesday and gets a

:09:38.:09:39.

straightforward deal or no Deal vote. I have a funny feeling this

:09:40.:09:43.

amendment, if it's chosen, we must remember because we don't know if

:09:44.:09:46.

they will choose this amendment, if it does go to a vote on Wednesday it

:09:47.:09:53.

will be very tight indeed. Remember, one final thing Theresa May can do

:09:54.:09:55.

if she gets Parliament voting against, as Isabel would have it,

:09:56.:10:02.

she could try to get a new parliament and go for a general

:10:03.:10:05.

election. And probably get a huge majority to do so. The Lords, it

:10:06.:10:11.

goes there after the February recess. They are very pro-Europe,

:10:12.:10:22.

but does their instinct for self-preservation override that? I

:10:23.:10:27.

think that is it. A Tory Lord said this morning I will vote to block it

:10:28.:10:30.

on a conscience measure, but you have the likes of Bill Cash, veteran

:10:31.:10:36.

Eurosceptics, suddenly converted to the Lords reform saying is an

:10:37.:10:40.

outrage. I doubt they will vote for their own demise, to hasten their

:10:41.:10:43.

own demise by blocking it. What did you make of Doctor Gorka smart

:10:44.:10:51.

fascinating. Cut from the same cloth as his boss. I thought it was

:10:52.:10:55.

extraordinary listening to him, saying everything is going dutifully

:10:56.:10:58.

to plan. But at the end of the day, what they are doing is what people

:10:59.:11:03.

in America voted for Trump to do. If you look at Lord Ashcroft's polling

:11:04.:11:07.

on why America voted for Trump, they went into this with their eyes wide

:11:08.:11:11.

open. One of the top fears among American voters, particularly

:11:12.:11:17.

Republican leading ones was America's immigration policy is or

:11:18.:11:19.

could be letting in terror arrests. As far as he is concerned, he is

:11:20.:11:24.

doing what he was elected to do. This whole year is turning into a

:11:25.:11:28.

wonderful year long lecture series on how democracy works at a

:11:29.:11:31.

fundamental level. I'm not sure anyone wanted it but it's what we've

:11:32.:11:34.

got. This same in the way we've been talking about direct democracy and

:11:35.:11:40.

Parliamentary democracy. The same is happening in America between

:11:41.:11:44.

executive and judicial branches. We are seeing the limits of

:11:45.:11:48.

presidential power. Regardless of the fact that people voted for Trump

:11:49.:11:52.

they voted for senators. The judge who blocks this was appointed by

:11:53.:11:58.

George W Bush. So-called Judge Eckert Mac so-called George W Bush!

:11:59.:12:02.

It's fascinating we're having all these conversations now that I never

:12:03.:12:06.

bought five years ago we would be having at such a fundamental level.

:12:07.:12:10.

Has the media yet worked out how to cover the Trump administration or

:12:11.:12:15.

has he got us behaving like headless chickens? He says something

:12:16.:12:20.

incendiary and we all run over to do that and when you pick it off it

:12:21.:12:25.

turns out not to be as incendiary as we thought? And then back doing

:12:26.:12:28.

something and we all rush over there. Is he making fools of us? Is

:12:29.:12:34.

exactly what he did in the election campaign. So many quick and fast

:12:35.:12:39.

outrageous comments frontrunner on a daily basis, no one single one of

:12:40.:12:42.

them had full news cycle time to be pored over and examined. I think

:12:43.:12:46.

there is a problem with this. Although he keeps the upper hand,

:12:47.:12:51.

keeps the agenda and keeps on the populist ground, the problem is it

:12:52.:12:56.

easy to campaign like that. If you are governing in a state of

:12:57.:12:59.

semi-hysteria, I wonder how long the American public will be comfortable

:13:00.:13:02.

with that. They don't really want their government to be swirling

:13:03.:13:05.

chaos all the time, as fascinating as it might be on TV. They will be

:13:06.:13:09.

exhausted by it, I already am. I have been interviewing White House

:13:10.:13:15.

administration official since 1976 and that is the first time someone

:13:16.:13:19.

hasn't given me a straight answer on America supporting the EU. That is a

:13:20.:13:21.

different America supporting the EU. That is a

:13:22.:13:21.

different world. Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two

:13:22.:13:23.

tomorrow at midday with the Daily Politics -

:13:24.:13:27.

and I'll be back here Remember, if it's Sunday -

:13:28.:13:31.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:32.:13:35.

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