19/03/2017 Sunday Politics Scotland


19/03/2017

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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:34.:00:36.

She faces huge political fights over Brexit, Scottish independence,

:00:37.:00:40.

After a tumultuous political week, we'll analyse the PM's prospects.

:00:41.:00:53.

With chatter increasing about a possible early General Election,

:00:54.:00:55.

Jeremy Corbyn's campaign chief joins me live.

:00:56.:01:00.

NHS bosses warn health services in England are facing "mission

:01:01.:01:03.

impossible" and waiting times for operations will rocket,

:01:04.:01:07.

unless hospitals are given more cash this year.

:01:08.:01:10.

The chief executive of NHS Providers joins me live.

:01:11.:01:16.

The stand-off continues - Theresa May says "Not now"

:01:17.:01:19.

but Nicola Sturgeon insists the will of the Scottish Parliament

:01:20.:01:22.

will prevail and there WILL be a second independence referendum -

:01:23.:01:25.

All that to come before 12:15pm, and I'll also be talking

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to the former leader of the Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg

:01:37.:01:39.

from his party's spring conference in York.

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With me here in the studio, throughout the programme,

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three of the country's top political commentators:

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Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

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They'll be tweeting their thoughts using #bbcsp.

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So, the political challenges facing Theresa May are stacking up.

:01:56.:01:58.

As well as negotiating Britain's exit from the EU,

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the PM must now deal with SNP demands for a second referendum

:02:05.:02:07.

on Scottish independence, backbenchers agitating against cuts

:02:08.:02:12.

to school budgets, and a humiliated Chancellor forced to u-turn on a key

:02:13.:02:15.

budget measure just one week after announcing it.

:02:16.:02:20.

Here's Adam Fleming on aturbulent political week

:02:21.:02:21.

Monday, 11:30am, TV crews gather in the residence of the First

:02:22.:02:38.

Minister of Scotland, who's got a surprise.

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She wants a vote on whether Scotland should leave the UK

:02:41.:02:43.

By taking the steps I have set out today I am ensuring that Scotland's

:02:44.:02:47.

future will be decided, not just by me, the

:02:48.:02:50.

Scottish Government, or the

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SNP, it will be decided by the people of Scotland.

:02:52.:02:53.

Westminster, 6:25pm the same day, MPs reject

:02:54.:03:03.

amendments to the legislation authorising the Prime Minister to

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The Bill ceremonially heads to the Lords where peers abandoned

:03:08.:03:21.

attempts to change it and it becomes law.

:03:22.:03:22.

But Downing Street doesn't trigger Article 50 as many had expected.

:03:23.:03:29.

Some say they were spooked by Nicola Sturgeon.

:03:30.:03:32.

We get an e-mail from the Treasury can the

:03:33.:03:48.

We get an e-mail from the Treasury cancelling

:03:49.:03:50.

the planned rise in National Insurance for

:03:51.:04:01.

the self-employed announced the budget.

:04:02.:04:03.

It's just minutes before Prime Minister's Questions at noon.

:04:04.:04:05.

The trend towards greater self-employment does create a

:04:06.:04:07.

We will bring forward further proposals

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but we will not bring forward increases to NICs later in this

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It seems to me like a government in a bit of chaos here.

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By making this change today we are listening to our colleagues

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fulfil both the letter and the spirit of our manifesto tax

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Thursday, 7am, Conservative campaign HQ and the

:04:24.:04:32.

Electoral Commission fines the party ?70,000 for misreporting spending

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But that's not what the Prime Minister

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Because at 12:19pm she gives her verdict on a

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We should be working together, not pulling apart.

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We should be working together to get that

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right deal for Scotland, that

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So, as I say, that's my job as Prime Minister and

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so for that reason I say to the SNP now is not the time.

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Friday and time for the faithful to gather.

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SNP activists at their spring conference

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Conservatives in Cardiff to hear the Prime Minister

:05:05.:05:15.

promote her plan for a more meritocratic Brexit Britain.

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At 11:10am comes some news about a newspaper that's frankly

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I'm thrilled and excited to be the new editor of The

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Evening Standard and, you know, with so many

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big issues in our world what

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good analysis, great news journalism.

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It's a really important time for good journalism that The

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Evening Standard is going to provide.

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There was no let-up yesterday as Gordon Brown launched proposals

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Under my proposals we keep the Barnett

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Formula, we keep the fiscal transfers, but we also bring the

:05:56.:05:59.

and fisheries back to the Scottish Parliament.

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And just think, all this and we're still counting down to the

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What a week in politics. It has been a torrid week for the government,

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Isabel Oakeshott, but does Theresa May shake it off, or is this a sign

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of worse to come? We may all be feeling a bit breathless after the

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events of last week and we are in for a a long war of attrition with

:06:32.:06:39.

the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon's strategy will be to foster over lengthy

:06:40.:06:43.

periods of time as much resentment and anger as she can in Scotland and

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try to create the impression that independence is somehow inevitable.

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Is Scotland the biggest challenge for Theresa May in the next year or

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so? I think it probably is because if you look at how relatively easily

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the Brexit bill went through on an issue where people could hardly feel

:07:01.:07:05.

more passionate in the Commons, and actually despite all the potential

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drama it has gone through quite smoothly. To go back to your

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original question, she just carries on. Don't underestimate the basic

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quiet and will towards Theresa May amongst the majority of Tory

:07:17.:07:21.

backbenchers. Yes, there are difficult little issues over school

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funding, sorry, it's not a little issue, it is a big one but she will

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get over that and treat each thing as it comes and keep pressing on.

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Has she not called Nicola Sturgeon's Bluff in that the First Minister

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said I want a referendum, here is roughly when I wanted, the Prime

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Minister says you're not having one. What happens next? She has done

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quite well and impact the progress Theresa May made this week in

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frustrating Nicola Sturgeon was evident when Nicola Sturgeon said,

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OK, maybe we can talk about the timing after. Nicola Sturgeon has

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already been the first one to blink. I would slightly disagree with

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Isabel Oakeshott, I don't agree Scotland will be the biggest hurdle

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for her. What this week showed as is Theresa May... It was a reality

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bites week. Theresa May is juggling four mammoth crises at the same

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time, Brexit obviously which I still think will be the biggest challenge

:08:16.:08:18.

to get a good deal, Trump left field who popped up at GCHQ on Friday and

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Scotland and the fiscal challenge, this enormous great problem, and it

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reinforced the point this is not an easy time in politics. The budget is

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over four years. That was one small problem, the immediate problem is

:08:37.:08:40.

how to fill the social care crisis and the ageing demographic. This is

:08:41.:08:43.

not normal times in British politics and Theresa May does not have a

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normal workload on her plate, hence why I think we will see more

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mistakes made as time goes on and as she has this almost impossible

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workload to juggle. How tempted do you think the Prime Minister is to

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call an early election? There is more chatter about it now. Is she

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tempted and if there is will she succumb? I will answer that in a

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second as Harold Wilson used to say. I want to agree, disagree with the

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rest of the panel about how she has out manipulated Nicola Sturgeon this

:09:12.:09:15.

week. I think Nicola Sturgeon expected Theresa May to say no to

:09:16.:09:19.

her expected timetable. It would be amazing if she had said yes. She

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expected her to say no but Sturgeon catalyst that will fuel support for

:09:25.:09:28.

her cause. There is no sign of that. The latest poll this morning shows

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66-44 against independence and only 13% think they would be better off

:09:35.:09:39.

with an independent Scotland and a clear majority do not want a second

:09:40.:09:44.

referendum. But the calculation of resistance from Westminster combined

:09:45.:09:47.

with Brexit which hasn't started yet, I think this is her

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calculation, she didn't expect Theresa May to say, sure, go ahead,

:09:51.:09:54.

I'm sure she expected Theresa May to say no, you can't have it at your

:09:55.:09:59.

desired timetable. On the wider point, I think Theresa May is in a

:10:00.:10:03.

fascinating position, she is both strong because she faces weak

:10:04.:10:07.

opposition and is ahead in the opinion polls. But faces the most

:10:08.:10:12.

daunting agenda of any Prime Minister for 40 or 50 years, I

:10:13.:10:16.

think. So it's a weird combination. I don't think she wants to call an

:10:17.:10:20.

election. I don't think she has thought about how you would

:10:21.:10:23.

manipulate it, what the trigger would be, and whether she's got the

:10:24.:10:27.

energy and space to prepare for and then mount a campaign was beginning

:10:28.:10:33.

the Brexit negotiation. Now, you could see the cause would be the

:10:34.:10:38.

small majorities that will make her life hellish, which it will do.

:10:39.:10:41.

Whether a landslide would help is another question, they can be

:10:42.:10:45.

difficult too. But I think the problems outweigh the advantages of

:10:46.:10:49.

going early. Do you think she would go for an early election? I don't

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and I think you have to look at the rhetoric coming out of No 10 which

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is so firm on this question, it is a delicious prospect for us as

:10:58.:11:00.

commentators to think there might be an election around the corner but

:11:01.:11:03.

they are so firm on this I can't see it happening. I agree, we are in

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unanimous agreement on this one. It is superficially attractive because

:11:09.:11:10.

she would love the big majority and she would get a lot more through

:11:11.:11:14.

Parliament especially with Brexit. The nitty-gritty of it makes an

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early General Election this year almost impossible. How do you write

:11:18.:11:22.

a manifesto on high Brexit versus soft Brexit, it opens up a Pandora's

:11:23.:11:27.

box of uncertainties. And there is enough with the European elections.

:11:28.:11:31.

The EU will say are we negotiating with you or the person who may

:11:32.:11:35.

replace you? How do you keep the Tory party united going to an

:11:36.:11:39.

election? How do you call one, with a vote of no confidence in yourself

:11:40.:11:43.

you may end up losing. Easy on paper but difficult in practice. We shall

:11:44.:11:44.

see. So if Theresa May did go

:11:45.:11:46.

for an early election this spring, The party's campaigns

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and elections chief Andrew Gwynne Andrew Gwynne, the government, as we

:11:49.:11:59.

have just been talking about, executed one of the most

:12:00.:12:02.

embarrassing U-turns in recent history this week. It has been a

:12:03.:12:05.

torrid time for the Theresa May government. Why are the Tories still

:12:06.:12:09.

so chipper? The Labour Party has been on an

:12:10.:12:14.

early election footing since before Christmas and we are preparing

:12:15.:12:17.

ourselves for that eventuality in case that does come. That means that

:12:18.:12:21.

we've got to get ourselves into a position whereby we can not only

:12:22.:12:26.

challenge the government but we can also offer a valuable alternative

:12:27.:12:32.

for the British people to choose from should that election arise. So,

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would you welcome an early General Election? Well, of course, I don't

:12:39.:12:41.

want this government to be in power so of course if there is an

:12:42.:12:44.

opportunity to put a case to the British people as to why there is a

:12:45.:12:48.

better way, and I believe the Labour way is the better way than of course

:12:49.:12:53.

we would want to put that case to the country. So, would Labour vote

:12:54.:12:58.

in the Commons for an early election? Well, of course as an

:12:59.:13:02.

opposition, not wanting to be in opposition, wanting to be in

:13:03.:13:06.

government should the government put forward a measure in accordance with

:13:07.:13:10.

the Fixed-term Parliaments Act then that's something we would very

:13:11.:13:13.

seriously have to consider. I know you would have to consider it but

:13:14.:13:17.

would you vote for an early election or not? Well, of course we want to

:13:18.:13:22.

be the government so if the current government puts forward measures to

:13:23.:13:25.

bring forward a General Election we would want to put our case to the

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British public and that's one of the jobs that I've been given, together

:13:30.:13:34.

Labour Party organisation early into a position where we can fight a

:13:35.:13:37.

General Election -- organisationally. For the avoidance

:13:38.:13:42.

of doubt, if the Government work to issue a motion in the Commons for an

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early election, the Labour Party would vote for an early election?

:13:47.:13:50.

It would be very difficult not, Andrew. If the Government wants to

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dissolve parliament, wants a General Election, we don't want the Tories

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in government, we want to be in government and we want to have that

:13:58.:14:02.

opportunity to put that case to the British people.

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Are you ready for an early election? You say you have been on a war all

:14:05.:14:13.

but since the Labour conference last autumn, but are you ready for one?

:14:14.:14:15.

How big is the election fighting fund? We have substantial amounts of

:14:16.:14:18.

money in our fighting fund, that is true, because not only has the

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Labour Party managed to eliminate its own financial deficit that it

:14:24.:14:28.

inherited from previous election campaigns, we have also managed to

:14:29.:14:36.

build up a substantial fund in the off chance we have an election. We

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have also expanded massively operations at Labour HQ, we are

:14:42.:14:45.

taking on additional staff, and one of the jobs that myself and Ian

:14:46.:14:48.

Lavery who I job share with are currently doing is to go around the

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Parliamentary Labour Party to make sure that Labour colleagues have the

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support and the resources that they need, should they have to face the

:14:57.:14:59.

electorate in their constituencies. So you are on a war footing, ready

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for the fight, you say you would vote for the fight, so have you got

:15:05.:15:08.

your tax and spend policies ready to roll out? That is something the

:15:09.:15:13.

shadow Treasury team will be discussing. One of the things is, if

:15:14.:15:18.

there is an early General Election, the normal timetable for these

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things gets fast-track because our policy decision-making body, its

:15:22.:15:26.

annual conference, we have the national policy forum that creates

:15:27.:15:31.

policies suggestions. You have been on a war footing since the last

:15:32.:15:34.

Labour conference, that is what Mr Corbyn told us. So you must have a

:15:35.:15:38.

fair idea of what policies you would fight an early election on. How much

:15:39.:15:43.

extra per year would you spend on the NHS? Well, look, I'm not going

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to set out the Labour manifesto for an election that hasn't been called.

:15:48.:15:51.

I'm just asking you about the NHS. You must have a policy for that. We

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have a policy for the NHS. So how much extra? I will not set out

:15:57.:16:01.

Labour's tax-and-spend policies here on The Sunday Politics when there

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hasn't even been election called. You said you had been on a war

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footing and you are prepared to vote for one, so if you can't Tommy that,

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can you tell me what the corporation rate tax on company profits be under

:16:16.:16:19.

a Labour government -- tell me that. You will have to be patient. I have.

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And wait for Mrs May to trigger an early election. If there is an

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election on the 4th of May the rich would have to be issued on the 27th

:16:30.:16:33.

of March, so that's not long to wait. If that date passes we aren't

:16:34.:16:39.

having an election on the 4th of May and the normal timetable for policy

:16:40.:16:44.

development will continue. All right. You lost Copeland, I think

:16:45.:16:48.

you were in charge of a by-election for Labour, your national poll

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ratings are still dire, even after week of terrible times for the

:16:52.:16:57.

Tories. Sometimes you even lose local government by-elections in

:16:58.:17:01.

safe seats, including in the place you are now, in Salford. How long

:17:02.:17:05.

does Mr Corbyn have to turn this around? Well, look, the issue of the

:17:06.:17:10.

Labour leadership was settled last year. The last thing the Labour

:17:11.:17:14.

Party now needs is another period of introspection with the Labour Party

:17:15.:17:18.

merely talks to the Labour Party. We are now on an election footing in

:17:19.:17:24.

case Mrs May does trigger an early General Election. We need to be

:17:25.:17:29.

talking to the British people are not to ourselves. So any speculation

:17:30.:17:33.

about the Labour leadership might excite you in the media but actually

:17:34.:17:38.

for us in the Labour Party it's about re-engaging and reconnecting

:17:39.:17:41.

with the voters. Rather than being excited, I feel quite daunted at the

:17:42.:17:45.

prospect of an early election. So I wouldn't get that right. Normally,

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given the number of mistakes this government has made, and its

:17:52.:17:55.

mid-term, you would expect any self-respecting opposition to be

:17:56.:17:59.

about ten points ahead. On the latest polls this morning you are 17

:18:00.:18:04.

behind. There is a 27-30 point gap from where you should normally be as

:18:05.:18:09.

an opposition. Are you telling me that if that doesn't change, you

:18:10.:18:12.

still fight the General Election with Mr Corbyn?

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These are matters for the future. I believe the leadership issue was

:18:19.:18:26.

settled last year. We have had two leadership contest in two years.

:18:27.:18:30.

Would you seriously contemplate going into the next election, if it

:18:31.:18:34.

is early I perfectly understand Jeremy Corbyn is your man, but if it

:18:35.:18:40.

is not until 2020, and you are still 17 points behind in the polls, will

:18:41.:18:44.

you go into the next election like that? There is a lot of future

:18:45.:18:48.

looking and speculation there, I don't know what the future holds,

:18:49.:18:58.

where the Labour Party will be in 12 months let alone by 2020 summit

:18:59.:19:00.

cross those bridges when we come to it. My main challenge is to make

:19:01.:19:03.

sure the Labour Party is in the best possible place organisationally to

:19:04.:19:06.

fight an election, that's my challenge and I'm up for that to

:19:07.:19:09.

make sure we are in the best possible place to make sure Labour

:19:10.:19:16.

returns as many Labour MPs as possible. Thank you for joining us.

:19:17.:19:22.

And we're joined now from the Liberal Democrats' spring

:19:23.:19:24.

conference in York by the former Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg.

:19:25.:19:26.

Good morning. In his conference speech today, Tim Farron lumps

:19:27.:19:35.

Theresa May with Vladimir Putin, Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump. In

:19:36.:19:40.

what way is Mrs May similar to Marine Le Pen? Of course he is not

:19:41.:19:48.

saying Theresa May is identical to Marine Le Pen, I think what Tim

:19:49.:19:54.

Wilby spelling out shortly in his speech is that we need to be aware

:19:55.:19:58.

what's going on in the world, the International settlement that was

:19:59.:20:05.

arrived at after the First World -- Second World War, that bound

:20:06.:20:11.

supranational organisations is under attack from characters as diverse as

:20:12.:20:16.

Vladimir Putin, Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump, and that by side in so

:20:17.:20:20.

ostentatiously with Donald Trump and pursuing this very hard Brexit,

:20:21.:20:24.

Theresa May appears to be giving succour to that much more

:20:25.:20:29.

isolationist chauvinist view of the world than the multilateral approach

:20:30.:20:33.

that Britain has subscribed to for a long time. The exact words he plans

:20:34.:20:38.

to use are welcome to the New World order, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump,

:20:39.:20:47.

Marine Le Pen, Theresa May, aggressive and teenage to, anti-EU,

:20:48.:20:52.

nationalistic. In what way is Mrs May fitting into any of that? In

:20:53.:20:57.

what way is she similar to Vladimir Putin? I'm not aware she has

:20:58.:21:03.

interfered with other people's elections. The clue is in the quote

:21:04.:21:08.

you just read out, which is the world order. The world order over

:21:09.:21:13.

the last half century or more, by the way a lesson I'm afraid we have

:21:14.:21:17.

to learn in Europe because of the terrible bloodshed of two world was

:21:18.:21:22.

in the space of a few decades, was based on the idea might is not

:21:23.:21:26.

right. Strong arm leaders cannot throw their weight around. What we

:21:27.:21:32.

have now with Putin, the populism across parts of Europe and Donald

:21:33.:21:39.

Trump who thinks the EU will unravel is a shift to a radically different

:21:40.:21:44.

view of the world. Mrs May doesn't think any of that. She is not

:21:45.:21:50.

antenatal, not anti-EU, she says she wants the EU to succeed. She's not

:21:51.:21:56.

aggressive as far as I'm aware so I'm not sure why you would lump the

:21:57.:21:59.

British Prime Minister in with these other characters. Let me explain, by

:22:00.:22:06.

choosing this uncompromising approach to Brexit, clearly in doing

:22:07.:22:13.

so she, in my view, maybe not yours or others, is pursuing a self

:22:14.:22:17.

harming approach to the United Kingdom but also pulling up the

:22:18.:22:21.

threads that bind the rest of the European Union together, in so

:22:22.:22:26.

ostentatiously siding with Donald Trump, somehow declaring in my view

:22:27.:22:31.

speciously that we can make up with the trade we will lose, she's not

:22:32.:22:40.

challenging the shift to a more chauvinist approach to world affairs

:22:41.:22:44.

that is happening in many places. You are at your party's Spring

:22:45.:22:49.

conference, I think we can agree any Lib Dem come back will take a long

:22:50.:22:54.

time. Would Tory dominance be more effectively challenged by a

:22:55.:22:59.

realignment of the centre and the centre-left? Are you working towards

:23:00.:23:04.

that? I missed half the question but I think you are talking about a

:23:05.:23:11.

realignment. As a cook a way to get over Tory dominance, would you want

:23:12.:23:15.

that to happen? Are you working towards that? My view is the

:23:16.:23:20.

recovery of the Lib Dems will be quicker than you suggest. People

:23:21.:23:25.

often forget that even the low point of our fortunes in the last election

:23:26.:23:29.

we still got a million more votes than the SNP, it's only because we

:23:30.:23:33.

have got this crazy electoral system... But the SNP fight in

:23:34.:23:42.

Scotland, you fight in the whole country! But I'm saying the way

:23:43.:23:48.

seats are allocated overlooks the fact that 2.5 million still voted

:23:49.:23:57.

for us. But my own view is of course there are people feeling

:23:58.:24:01.

increasingly homeless in the liberal wing of the Conservative Party

:24:02.:24:04.

because they are now in a party which is in effect indistinguishable

:24:05.:24:08.

from Ukip on some of the biggest issues of the day, and homeless folk

:24:09.:24:14.

on the rational, reasonable wing of the Labour Party. I would invite

:24:15.:24:18.

them to join the Liberal Democrats and I would invite everyone across

:24:19.:24:23.

parties to talk about the idea is that bind us because the Westminster

:24:24.:24:28.

village can invest a lot of energy building new castles in the sky,

:24:29.:24:32.

inventing new names for parties when actually what you want is for people

:24:33.:24:35.

on the progressive centre ground of British politics to talk about the

:24:36.:24:47.

ideas that unite them, from the dilemmas of artificial intelligence

:24:48.:24:52.

to climate change. Do you think in your own view, can Brexit still be

:24:53.:24:56.

thwarted or is it now a matter of getting the best terms? I think we

:24:57.:25:05.

are in an interlude, almost a calm between two storms, the storm of the

:25:06.:25:09.

referendum itself and the collision between the Government's stated

:25:10.:25:13.

ambitions for Brexit and the reality of having to negotiate something

:25:14.:25:17.

unworkable with 27 other governments. The one thing I can

:25:18.:25:22.

guarantee you is that what the Government has promised to the

:25:23.:25:33.

British people cannot happen. Over a slower period of time we will work

:25:34.:25:38.

out our new relationship with the European Union. Theresa May said she

:25:39.:25:42.

will settle divorce arrangements, and pensions, so one, negotiate new

:25:43.:25:48.

trade agreements, new climate change policies and so on, and have all of

:25:49.:25:53.

that ratified within two years, that will not happen so I think there

:25:54.:25:57.

will be a lot of turbulence in the next couple of years. Will you use

:25:58.:26:03.

this turbulence to try to thwart Brexit, to find a way of rolling

:26:04.:26:09.

back the decision? It's not about repeating the debates of the past or

:26:10.:26:13.

thwarting the will of the people but it is comparing what people were

:26:14.:26:19.

promised from the ?350 million for the NHS every week through to this

:26:20.:26:25.

glittering array of new trade agreements we will sign across the

:26:26.:26:29.

world, with the reality that will transpire in the next couple of

:26:30.:26:33.

years and at that point, yes it is my belief people should be able to

:26:34.:26:37.

take a second look at if that is what they really want. A couple of

:26:38.:26:41.

quick questions, would you welcome an early general election? I always

:26:42.:26:49.

welcome them, we couldn't do worse than we did last time. That is

:26:50.:26:56.

certainly true. You have a column in the Evening Standard, have you

:26:57.:26:58.

spoken to the new editor about whether he will keep your column or

:26:59.:27:05.

spike it? No, I wait in nervous anticipation. Can you be a newspaper

:27:06.:27:12.

editor in the morning and an MP in the afternoon? Do I think that's

:27:13.:27:20.

feasible? Sorry, I missed a bit. There is no prohibition, no law

:27:21.:27:25.

against MPs being editors. They have been in the past and no doubt will

:27:26.:27:30.

again in the future. He is taking a lot on, he is an editor, also

:27:31.:27:37.

wanting to be an MP, a jetsetting academic in the States, working in

:27:38.:27:41.

the city, I suspect something will give. It seems to me even by his

:27:42.:27:46.

self-confidence standards in his own abilities I suspect he is taking on

:27:47.:27:52.

a little bit too much. Very diplomatic, Mr Clegg, I'm sure you

:27:53.:27:55.

will get to keep the column. Thanks for joining us.

:27:56.:28:00.

Now, for the last six months England's NHS bosses have been

:28:01.:28:02.

warning the health service needs more money to help it meet

:28:03.:28:05.

But in his first Budget, the Chancellor offered

:28:06.:28:08.

no immediate relief, and today the head of

:28:09.:28:10.

the organisation representing England's NHS trusts says hundreds

:28:11.:28:12.

of thousands of patients will have to wait longer for both emergency

:28:13.:28:15.

care and planned operations, unless the Government

:28:16.:28:16.

Warnings over funding are not exactly new.

:28:17.:28:24.

Back in 2014 the head of the NHS in England, Simon Stevens,

:28:25.:28:27.

published his plan for the future of the health service.

:28:28.:28:31.

In his five-year forward view, Stevens said the NHS in England

:28:32.:28:34.

would face a funding shortfall of up to ?30 billion by 2020.

:28:35.:28:37.

To bridge that gap he said the NHS would need more money

:28:38.:28:40.

from the Government, at least ?8 billion extra,

:28:41.:28:44.

and that the health service could account for the rest by making

:28:45.:28:47.

The Government says it's given the health service more than what it

:28:48.:28:54.

asked for, and that NHS in England will have received

:28:55.:28:56.

That number is disputed by NHS managers and the chair

:28:57.:29:02.

of Parliament's health committee, who say the figure is more

:29:03.:29:04.

like ?4.5 billion, while other parts of the health and social care budget

:29:05.:29:07.

have been cut, putting pressure on the front line.

:29:08.:29:13.

Last year, two thirds of NHS trusts in England finished

:29:14.:29:16.

the year in the red, and despite emergency bailouts

:29:17.:29:19.

from the Government, the NHS is likely to record

:29:20.:29:21.

Meanwhile national targets on waiting times for A

:29:22.:29:26.

departments, diagnostic tests, and operations are being

:29:27.:29:28.

This month's Budget provided ?2 billion for social care

:29:29.:29:36.

but there was no new cash for the NHS, leading trusts to warn

:29:37.:29:40.

that patient care is beginning to suffer, and what is being asked

:29:41.:29:43.

And I'm joined now by the Chief Executive of NHS

:29:44.:29:49.

Providers in England, Chris Hopson.

:29:50.:29:54.

Welcome to the programme. Morning, Andrew. I will come onto the extra

:29:55.:30:01.

money you need to do your job properly in a minute but first, part

:30:02.:30:06.

of the deal was you had to make 22 billion in efficiency savings, not a

:30:07.:30:09.

bank that money but spend it on patient care, the front line, and so

:30:10.:30:15.

on. How is that going? So, last parliament we realised around 18

:30:16.:30:17.

billion of productivity and efficiency savings, we are realising

:30:18.:30:21.

more this year so we are on course to realise 3 billion this year, that

:30:22.:30:25.

is a quarter of a billion more than last year but all of us in the NHS

:30:26.:30:30.

knew the 22 billion would be a very stretching target and we are

:30:31.:30:34.

somewhat inevitably falling short. So it is 22 billion by 2,020.

:30:35.:30:41.

Roughly. That was the time. We are now into 2017. So how much of the 22

:30:42.:30:49.

billion have you achieved? We realised around 3 billion last year

:30:50.:30:54.

and we will realise 3 billion this year, Court of billion more, 3.25

:30:55.:31:00.

billion this year, so we are on course for 18-19,000,000,000. By the

:31:01.:31:04.

2021 period? You are not that far away. The problem is the degree to

:31:05.:31:08.

which demand is going up. We have record demand over the winter period

:31:09.:31:13.

and that actually meant we have seen more people than we have ever seen

:31:14.:31:17.

before but performance is still under real pressure. Let me come

:31:18.:31:23.

onto that. When you agreed on the 22 billion efficiency savings plus some

:31:24.:31:27.

extra money from the government, I know there is a bit of an argument

:31:28.:31:31.

about how much that is actually worth, had you not factored in this

:31:32.:31:36.

extra demand that you saw coming over the next three or four years?

:31:37.:31:40.

Let's be very clear committee referred to Simon Stevens's forward

:31:41.:31:45.

view and we signed up to it but the 22 billion was a process run at the

:31:46.:31:49.

centre of government by the Department of Health with its arms

:31:50.:31:52.

length bodies, NHS England and others and is not something that was

:31:53.:31:56.

consulted on with the NHS. But you signed up to it. We always said that

:31:57.:32:00.

the day that that Spending Review was announced, the idea that the NHS

:32:01.:32:06.

where customer demand goes up something like four or 5% every

:32:07.:32:09.

year, the idea that in the middle years of Parliament we would be able

:32:10.:32:13.

to provide the same level of service when we were only getting funding

:32:14.:32:19.

increases of 1.3%, 0.4% and 0.7%, and I can show you the press release

:32:20.:32:23.

we issued, we always said there was going to be a gap and that we would

:32:24.:32:28.

not be able to deliver what was required. The full 22 billion in

:32:29.:32:35.

other words? What we said to Simon Stevens at the Public Accounts

:32:36.:32:37.

Committee a few months ago, the NHS didn't get what it was asked for.

:32:38.:32:43.

Today the NHS, cope with the resources it has according to you.

:32:44.:32:50.

How much more does it need? Are reported is about 2017-18 and we

:32:51.:32:52.

estimate that what we are being asked to do, and again, Andrew, you

:32:53.:32:56.

clearly set it out in the package, we are a long way off the four-hour

:32:57.:33:02.

A target and a long way off the 92%. The waiting times and

:33:03.:33:06.

operations. How much more do you need? And we are making up a ?900

:33:07.:33:11.

million deficit. If you take all of those into account we estimate you

:33:12.:33:15.

would need an extra ?3.5 billion next year in order to deliver all of

:33:16.:33:20.

those targets and eliminate the deficit. That would be 3.5 billion

:33:21.:33:23.

on top of what is already planned next year and that would be 3.5

:33:24.:33:28.

billion repeated in the years to come too? Yes, Andrew it is

:33:29.:33:31.

important we should make an important distinction about the NHS

:33:32.:33:37.

versus other public services. When the last government, the last Labour

:33:38.:33:40.

government put extra money into the NHS it clearly said that in return

:33:41.:33:44.

for that it would establish some standards in the NHS Constitution,

:33:45.:33:49.

the 95% A target we have talked about and the 92% elective surgery

:33:50.:33:53.

we have talked about. The trust we represent are very clear, they would

:33:54.:33:57.

want to realise those standards, but you can only do it if you pay for

:33:58.:34:01.

it. The problem is at the moment is we are in the longest and deepest

:34:02.:34:06.

financial squeeze in NHS history. As we have said, funding is only going

:34:07.:34:09.

up by 1% per year but every year just to stand still cost and demand

:34:10.:34:15.

go up by more than 4%. There is clearly a demand for more money. I

:34:16.:34:20.

think people watching this programme will think probably the NHS is going

:34:21.:34:23.

to have to get more money to meet the goals you have been given. I

:34:24.:34:27.

think they would also like to be sure that your Mac running the NHS

:34:28.:34:32.

as efficiently as it could be. We read this morning that trusts have

:34:33.:34:36.

got ?100 million of empty properties that cost 10 million to maintain, 36

:34:37.:34:41.

office blocks are not being used, you have surplus land equivalent to

:34:42.:34:44.

office blocks are not being used, 1800 football pitches. Yes, there

:34:45.:34:48.

are a number of things that we know in the NHS we need to do better but

:34:49.:34:53.

let me remind you, Andrew, in the last Parliament we realised ?18

:34:54.:34:57.

billion worth of cost improvement gains. We are going to realise

:34:58.:35:02.

another 3 billion this year, 0.25 billion more than last year so these

:35:03.:35:08.

things are being targeted. But having that surplus land, it is

:35:09.:35:11.

almost certainly in areas where there is a demand for housing.

:35:12.:35:17.

Absolutely. So why not release it for housing? You get the money, the

:35:18.:35:21.

people get their houses and its contribution and a signal that you

:35:22.:35:24.

are running NHS assets as efficiently as you can? Tell me if

:35:25.:35:29.

I'm going to too much detail for you. One of the reasons as to why

:35:30.:35:34.

our trusts are reluctant to realise those land sales is because there is

:35:35.:35:37.

an assumption that the money would go back to the Treasury and wouldn't

:35:38.:35:42.

benefit NHS trusts. You could make a deal, couldn't you? That's part of

:35:43.:35:45.

the conversation going on at the moment. The issue is that we would

:35:46.:35:49.

want to ensure that if we do release land, quite rightly the benefit,

:35:50.:35:53.

particularly in foundation trusts which are, as you will remember,

:35:54.:36:04.

deliberately autonomous organisations, that they should keep

:36:05.:36:07.

the benefit of those land sales. Have you raised that with the

:36:08.:36:08.

Yes we have. What did they say? They are in discussions of it. We heard

:36:09.:36:20.

somebody who moved from one job and then to another job and given a

:36:21.:36:22.

somebody who moved from one job and salary and then almost ?200,000 as a

:36:23.:36:27.

payoff. There is a national mood for the NHS to get more money. But

:36:28.:36:31.

before you give anybody any more money you want to be sure that the

:36:32.:36:34.

money you have got already is being properly spent, which for us, is the

:36:35.:36:38.

patient at the end of the day. And yet there seem to be these enormous

:36:39.:36:43.

salaries and payoffs. I've worked in a FTSE 100 on the board of Her

:36:44.:36:50.

Majesty's Revenue and Customs and I have worked in large organisations.

:36:51.:36:52.

I can look you completely straight in the eye and tell you that the

:36:53.:36:56.

jobs that our hospital, community, mental health and ambulance chief

:36:57.:36:59.

Executives do are amongst the most complicated leadership roles I have

:37:00.:37:03.

ever seen. It doesn't seem to me to be unreasonable that in order to get

:37:04.:37:06.

the right quality of people we should pay an appropriate salary.

:37:07.:37:10.

The reality is the salaries are paid are not excessive when talking about

:37:11.:37:15.

managing budgets of over ?1 billion a year and talking about managing

:37:16.:37:18.

tens of thousands of staff. There was a doctor working as a locum that

:37:19.:37:26.

earned an extra ?375,000. One of the problems in the NHS is a mismatch

:37:27.:37:30.

between the number of staff we need and the number of staff coming

:37:31.:37:33.

through the pipeline. What is having to happen is if you want to keep a

:37:34.:37:38.

service going you have to use Mackem and agency staff. Even at that cost?

:37:39.:37:41.

You would not want to pay those amounts. But you are. The chief

:37:42.:37:48.

Executives's choice in those areas is giving the service open or

:37:49.:37:51.

employing a locum. I'm sure you could find a locum prepared to work

:37:52.:37:56.

for less than that. What indication, what hopes do you have of getting

:37:57.:38:02.

the extra ?3 billion? The government has been very clear, for the moment

:38:03.:38:07.

it wants to stick to the existing funding settlement it has agreed. So

:38:08.:38:12.

there was nothing in the budget. Can I finish by making one important

:38:13.:38:16.

point. Please, finish. This is the first time the NHS has said before

:38:17.:38:20.

the year has even started that we can't deliver on those standards. We

:38:21.:38:26.

believe, as do most people who work in the NHS, that the NHS is on a

:38:27.:38:30.

gradual slow decline. This is a very important inflection point to Mark,

:38:31.:38:34.

this is the first time before the financial year starts that we say we

:38:35.:38:37.

cannot meet the targets we are being asked to deliver and are in the NHS

:38:38.:38:42.

Constitution. We have run out of time. Chris Hopson, thank you for

:38:43.:38:43.

being with me. It's just gone 11:35am,

:38:44.:38:44.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:38:45.:38:47.

in Scotland who leave us now Good morning and welcome

:38:48.:38:52.

to Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up on the programme -

:38:53.:38:54.

the battle of the wills. Nicola Sturgeon insists

:38:55.:38:58.

there will be a second referendum but with Theresa May insisting

:38:59.:39:01.

there will not be one now - Our country stands at a crossroads,

:39:02.:39:15.

the future of the UK looks very different today than it did two

:39:16.:39:16.

years ago. And on Wednesday the Scottish

:39:17.:39:20.

Parliament votes on Indyref2 - I'll be speaking to the Tories

:39:21.:39:22.

who plan to vote no and the Greens, without whose support

:39:23.:39:25.

the Scottish Government cannot win. If you're watching this

:39:26.:39:28.

programme in England, Wales or Northern Ireland and feel

:39:29.:39:30.

a bit peeved with Brexit and rather fancy living

:39:31.:39:33.

in an independent Scotland - Because yesterday, at her

:39:34.:39:35.

party's spring conference, the First Minister invited

:39:36.:39:37.

all Britons to settle in the "progressive outward looking

:39:38.:39:39.

country" that the SNP believes The only fly in this utopian

:39:40.:39:42.

ointment is the need to win a referendum first -

:39:43.:39:49.

and in order to win a referendum, Shortly I'll be speaking

:39:50.:39:52.

to the Scottish Government's Cabinet Secretary for External Affairs -

:39:53.:39:56.

Fiona Hyslop. But first, Graham Stewart's been

:39:57.:39:59.

assessing the mood among delegates, These kind of referendums are once

:40:00.:40:29.

in a generation events. No means we stay in, we are members of the

:40:30.:40:35.

European Union. We can't keep spending money you haven't actually

:40:36.:40:42.

got. The dream shall never die. Ecclesial all added misty eyed,

:40:43.:40:47.

doesn't it? If only someone could help us relive that festival of

:40:48.:40:52.

democracy. I can confirm today that Nick Clegg I will seek the authority

:40:53.:40:54.

of the Scottish Parliament to agree with the UK Government the details

:40:55.:41:00.

of a Section 35 Order. The procedure that will enable the Scottish

:41:01.:41:02.

Parliament to legislate for an independence referendum. Nicola

:41:03.:41:07.

Sturgeon's announcement set Tomic the UK Government off-guard. While

:41:08.:41:12.

it took them a few days to formulate a response, when the answer came, it

:41:13.:41:17.

was repeated over and over again. Now is not the time. Now is not the

:41:18.:41:23.

time. Now is not the time. When is the right time? Now is not the time.

:41:24.:41:30.

Is not now, when? That's the question that has been exercising

:41:31.:41:34.

delegates at the SNP conference this weekend. But wondering which side

:41:35.:41:40.

benefits from I think it benefits the SNP and I think the SNP will

:41:41.:41:43.

have factored this in. They are willing to go all the way up to

:41:44.:41:49.

2020, 2021, which I think pre-Brexit was the original planning. They will

:41:50.:41:52.

have anticipated the Prime Minister in the UK Government saying not

:41:53.:41:56.

until after the exit. And they will be comfortable with something later

:41:57.:42:00.

on. Not, however, with anything after May 2021, which is where I

:42:01.:42:09.

think it becomes harder for the SNP. If Brexit is chaotic and nasty and

:42:10.:42:12.

extraordinarily exhausting, as we expected to be, because after all,

:42:13.:42:16.

every aspect of European law has to be unpicked may be integrated and

:42:17.:42:20.

then removed, if all of that begins to hit people the most incredible

:42:21.:42:25.

double they have ever experienced, then the longer it goes on, the

:42:26.:42:28.

better it works for Scottish independence. -- guddle. When I

:42:29.:42:39.

heard the announcement, I had shivers down my spine and went back

:42:40.:42:41.

home and trying to find my posters and badges and I just want to get

:42:42.:42:46.

going and change those people that said no before. The Scottish people

:42:47.:42:52.

have certainly demanded it, by returning 57 out of 59 MPs, I think

:42:53.:42:54.

that is another proof that the second referendum is required. I

:42:55.:42:59.

wasn't actively involved in persuading other people last time,

:43:00.:43:01.

other than through social media but I think I'm actually tread the

:43:02.:43:10.

boards and knock on doors. Having to persuade former Yes voters who had

:43:11.:43:15.

switched sides because of Europe gobsmacked I don't want Scotland to

:43:16.:43:19.

come out of one United Kingdom of 60 million and then go into another one

:43:20.:43:23.

of 400 million, where people have even less voice, so, no thank you.

:43:24.:43:26.

One third of SNP supporters basically think the same as me. What

:43:27.:43:31.

kind of reaction have you had since you announced publicly you were

:43:32.:43:38.

moving from yes to no? People Act as though I have betrayed the faith, I

:43:39.:43:41.

have been called a traitor, I've been told to get out, I have been

:43:42.:43:48.

told I am a liar, the ultimate insult is chilly unionist. Other

:43:49.:43:55.

voters are switched from no to yes because of the exit. My reasons are

:43:56.:43:58.

twofold, I believe there is an economic case for Scotland to remain

:43:59.:44:02.

in the single market, we cannot do that if we leave. The other is a

:44:03.:44:07.

moral case, I think that liberal democracy in Europe is under threat

:44:08.:44:12.

moral case, I think that liberal and to say no two that sort of

:44:13.:44:16.

thinking is important for Scotland. But for Nicola Sturgeon that is the

:44:17.:44:20.

small matter of agreeing a date first. If only it was as easy as

:44:21.:44:22.

days gone by... # Can it be that it

:44:23.:44:34.

was so simple then? Joining me now from Linlithgow

:44:35.:44:53.

is the Cabinet Secretary Fiona Hyslop, on the assumption that

:44:54.:45:13.

the Scottish Parliament votes for another referendum and Theresa May

:45:14.:45:20.

says she will not put a Section 35 Order before Parliament, what

:45:21.:45:26.

happens next? Well, welcome to Linlithgow, it is the case that we

:45:27.:45:33.

have to get through the process, we not calling for a referendum now. It

:45:34.:45:38.

will be an opportunity to learn more behind Brexit opportunity is going

:45:39.:45:42.

to be so this week is important because this is a vote for the

:45:43.:45:46.

Scottish Parliament, the elected Scottish Parliament, in terms of the

:45:47.:45:51.

process of securing the discussions around Section 30... Sure, but one

:45:52.:45:58.

the reason may refuses and says, I am not ruling out a referendum, wait

:45:59.:46:01.

until Brexit has taken effect and see what effect it has only Scottish

:46:02.:46:05.

economy, by all means come and see me and we will have a discussion,

:46:06.:46:09.

what do you say? Well, there are two sides to that. The first part of it

:46:10.:46:13.

is about Section 30 trans-Pennine the powers to have the timetable and

:46:14.:46:23.

DP legislation to have a referendum. But of course, Theresa May has not

:46:24.:46:25.

said they would not be a referendum at all. She thinks it should not

:46:26.:46:32.

happen now. We do not want now and what we wanted at the time when we

:46:33.:46:35.

have more information. So, that first part, that process to make

:46:36.:46:39.

sure powers transferred, Theresa May could agree to that as of now and

:46:40.:46:44.

the discussions about the timetable, and the First Minister has said she

:46:45.:46:48.

is willing to have discussions with Theresa May, those could take place.

:46:49.:46:52.

The second part is making sure we have information about what the deal

:46:53.:46:57.

might mean. One aspect of that is, can we have the referendum at a time

:46:58.:47:03.

when we know what the relationships might be with customs union, that is

:47:04.:47:06.

a huge economic consequence to Scotland, we don't even know within

:47:07.:47:11.

days of the Article 50 being triggered, or the customs union

:47:12.:47:14.

position might be for the UK Government. If we wait too long,

:47:15.:47:18.

that would see Scotland suffer and the idea of 5% of the GDP reduction

:47:19.:47:22.

for the Scottish economy because we're out of the single market would

:47:23.:47:26.

have consequences, so waiting too long may leave it too late for the

:47:27.:47:30.

Scottish economy and the Scottish people.

:47:31.:47:41.

Sorry, what is too long? If the British Government or indeed the

:47:42.:47:45.

Scottish Conservatives say, look, whatever the dealers, wait for a few

:47:46.:47:47.

years until we see evolving are consequences for Scotland you

:47:48.:47:49.

forecast actually happen. In terms of the substance of the issue,

:47:50.:47:52.

rather on the process, what is the argument against that? Even if you

:47:53.:47:54.

are correct, you have accepted that Scotland will have to reapply for

:47:55.:47:56.

membership of the EU anyway, so what is a matter whether it happens in

:47:57.:48:02.

2018, 2019, 2020, or 2023 for that matter? It doesn't really matter,

:48:03.:48:07.

does it? Well, we have a choice and we need clarity. We need to know

:48:08.:48:13.

what type of deal the UK wants. Remember Michel Barnier and David

:48:14.:48:17.

Davis this week echoing Act, determined that the deal would need

:48:18.:48:23.

to be known and the circumstances and arrangements by autumn 2018 to

:48:24.:48:26.

have application across Europe or the other countries. Wouldn't it be

:48:27.:48:31.

ironic if every other country across the EU could decide whether this was

:48:32.:48:36.

a good enough deal but the people of Scotland could not? Particularly

:48:37.:48:41.

when 62% had voted to remain. But you're talking about processes, I am

:48:42.:48:44.

talking about substance. The point I am making is that if it is accepted

:48:45.:48:47.

that Scotland will have to reapply to join the European Union, should

:48:48.:48:51.

that be your policy in a referendum campaign? What doesn't matter if it

:48:52.:49:00.

is 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, if you want to have another referendum, on

:49:01.:49:03.

the substance of the issue, it is that you want to join the EU, it

:49:04.:49:11.

doesn't have to be in 20182019. In terms of the substance, coming out

:49:12.:49:14.

of the single market will have huge economic consequences. We will know

:49:15.:49:20.

by automating, and if we do not know I would be very concerned about UK

:49:21.:49:25.

Government position, what the arrangements might be, we want to be

:49:26.:49:30.

part of the EU, that is our policy. The circumstances that we would find

:49:31.:49:33.

ourselves in at the point at which the UK leads, would be far far

:49:34.:49:40.

clearer in 18 months' time, when the deal is European Union. But you have

:49:41.:49:44.

not yet answered the point about substance. The Conservatives and the

:49:45.:49:48.

British Government will say that we do not believe the consequences of

:49:49.:49:52.

coming out of the EU will be as dire as your forecasting. By did we not

:49:53.:49:56.

wait and see what the consequences actually argument if you're correct,

:49:57.:49:59.

by all means have a referendum and you will probably win but at least

:50:00.:50:04.

give it a chance to see what happens. Is that not just common

:50:05.:50:12.

sense? Well, I think a wish and a pair, relying on a hard Tory

:50:13.:50:15.

right-wing Government, is not what we can accept. If they want to slash

:50:16.:50:21.

taxes, regulation and workers' rights, the disincentive to

:50:22.:50:24.

investment, there are discussions happening all over Europe about

:50:25.:50:28.

financial companies moving to Luxembourg or to Dublin. I think

:50:29.:50:32.

this is a very real issue. The substance cannot wait for years to

:50:33.:50:37.

find out if perhaps the UK Government will...

:50:38.:50:42.

It can wait for a couple of years can't it? Many members of the public

:50:43.:50:51.

will say, we don't know what this argument is about, let's wait and

:50:52.:50:55.

see what happens after Brexit and if you are right, we'll support you in

:50:56.:50:58.

another referendum but we don't want to have one that soon. You don't

:50:59.:51:02.

seem to have any arguments are doing that either. Only today, we've got

:51:03.:51:08.

some fantastic results for the growth of the exports of the

:51:09.:51:14.

Scottish sector. ?156 million increase in the food exports. 153 on

:51:15.:51:21.

food and drink to Europe. If we don't know what the standards of the

:51:22.:51:25.

exports of our food companies exporting into the EU are by the

:51:26.:51:31.

time we leave it in 2019, that puts our food exports at a disadvantage.

:51:32.:51:36.

There are jobs dependent on our food industry and a successful industry,

:51:37.:51:39.

we want that to continue, which is why we have to have the clarity

:51:40.:51:41.

we want that to continue, which is about whether the UK Government will

:51:42.:51:45.

still have any arrangement to allow access to the single market or

:51:46.:51:48.

preferably membership of the single market. We've set out compromise

:51:49.:51:54.

proposals and we are taking the substance of the Scottish economy

:51:55.:51:57.

very seriously which is why the timetable set out by the First

:51:58.:51:58.

Minister is very sensible. timetable set out by the First

:51:59.:52:07.

running out of time. Can we be clear, if you at some point have

:52:08.:52:10.

another referendum campaign, the SNP's policy will be for Scotland to

:52:11.:52:18.

rejoin the European Union as a full member? Yes, our policy is... And to

:52:19.:52:26.

rejoin the common fisheries policy? In terms of our negotiations, we

:52:27.:52:30.

want to be in the best possible position and that is why we need to

:52:31.:52:33.

have the referendum before the UK leaves. We have to leave it there.

:52:34.:52:37.

We will leave you to your loch, not With me now are the Scottish Deputy

:52:38.:52:43.

Leader of the party that's said No to another independence referendum

:52:44.:52:46.

now and the co-convenor of the party without whom the SNP will lose

:52:47.:52:49.

Tuesday's vote in Holyrood. What... Will you vote for another

:52:50.:53:03.

referendum? We decided as long ago as October to call for an order.

:53:04.:53:13.

What is your mandate? As a political party? Our mandate for policy comes

:53:14.:53:22.

from our members. You stood last year and in your manifesto, the

:53:23.:53:25.

entire basis for the SNP saying they have a mandate for another

:53:26.:53:28.

referendum, you said nothing about having another referendum. We didn't

:53:29.:53:35.

anticipate there would be... Like most people... Let me read it to

:53:36.:53:40.

you, you said if there is another referendum, it should come about by

:53:41.:53:42.

the will of the people and referendum, it should come about by

:53:43.:53:46.

driven by calculations of party political advantage. Where is the

:53:47.:53:50.

will of the people for another referendum? We suggested a citizens

:53:51.:53:58.

initiative. Where is it? It was intended to be a way in which we

:53:59.:54:04.

could judge the appetites... Can I answer the question. What we

:54:05.:54:15.

suggested was a way of... "It should come about by the will of the

:54:16.:54:21.

people." We never suggested the Scottish Parliament should be

:54:22.:54:24.

stripped of its ability to make a decision. One way of judging public

:54:25.:54:31.

appetite... The reality has changed. In June last year, the world changed

:54:32.:54:38.

around us. I know that, the entire basis of the SNP's case for another

:54:39.:54:42.

referendum is that they have what they call a cast iron mandate

:54:43.:54:46.

because of what they said in the manifesto they put to the people of

:54:47.:54:50.

Scotland only last year. Your manifesto doesn't give you any

:54:51.:54:54.

mandate to vote at the moment for another referendum. Arguably, if you

:54:55.:54:59.

vote, you are in breach of your manifesto. I do not think that.

:55:00.:55:04.

Where is the will of the people? We're not in breach of the

:55:05.:55:07.

possession our party members decided. You no mandate from the

:55:08.:55:14.

people who voted last year which is the reason you are in Parliament in

:55:15.:55:24.

the first place. This is not just about the Greens. The entire basis

:55:25.:55:28.

of the Scottish Government saying it has a mandate is because of the cast

:55:29.:55:33.

iron mandate it has, they can only win this vote this week with your

:55:34.:55:38.

support and you are arguably in breach of your manifesto and

:55:39.:55:41.

certainly, there is no mandate in your manifesto so from precisely the

:55:42.:55:46.

reasons the Scottish Government say this is legitimate, you are going to

:55:47.:55:50.

make it illegitimate. When you have an election, the winning party has a

:55:51.:55:53.

responsibility to implement its manifesto. A party in opposition

:55:54.:56:00.

needs to look at its policy and in June last year, the world changed

:56:01.:56:04.

around us and our party debated how to respond to that and our members

:56:05.:56:09.

voted in favour of a motion. You got the press release just like everyone

:56:10.:56:18.

else. You ought to either may be not to vote against it this week but the

:56:19.:56:24.

very least, you ought to abstain. Given the way the parliamentary

:56:25.:56:28.

arithmetic works, abstaining would be functionally equivalent, the SNP

:56:29.:56:33.

will gain a majority in the Scottish Parliament on any issue if anyone

:56:34.:56:37.

opposition party abstained so are abstaining basically says we are in

:56:38.:56:44.

favour of... Do you think... It's not just about the Greens, the

:56:45.:56:48.

entire argument of the SNP is that they have a cast iron mandate but

:56:49.:56:51.

entire argument of the SNP is that they don't. Not if they are relying

:56:52.:56:55.

on the support of a party which doesn't have any mandate. I think

:56:56.:57:00.

Patrick is dancing on the head of a pin. The referendum was eventually

:57:01.:57:06.

supported by 92% of the people and... To have a referendum. A super

:57:07.:57:12.

majority of every single MSP in the Parliament voting for it. That

:57:13.:57:15.

consent does not exist at this point. We are told this morning only

:57:16.:57:22.

32% support it. Do you think relying on the Greens affects its

:57:23.:57:28.

legitimacy? I do. In any event, I don't think the Scottish Government

:57:29.:57:31.

has ignored these resolutions of the Scottish Parliament over the last

:57:32.:57:35.

six weeks, health and education, the funding Council, the police. Nicola

:57:36.:57:45.

Sturgeon has three times ignored the Scottish Parliament. What exactly

:57:46.:57:51.

are the Conservatives saying? If you are saying, let's do the Brexit

:57:52.:57:53.

negotiations and see what happens and then have a referendum after

:57:54.:57:58.

that, I think some people will understand that. There seem to be

:57:59.:58:02.

some attempts by Conservatives like Ruth Davidson to say, we mean, they

:58:03.:58:06.

would have to be a period of several years until we see how Brexit runs

:58:07.:58:11.

out and that is not reasonable. The Prime Minister has said it is. We

:58:12.:58:16.

have to leave the European Union and we then have to see how Scotland are

:58:17.:58:18.

settling down in the new arrangement. They can then be a

:58:19.:58:23.

referendum at the point there is clear public support for one and

:58:24.:58:27.

that is the crucial point. There is none at the moment. Many people

:58:28.:58:32.

watching this will say, we can see the logic saying let's do the Brexit

:58:33.:58:36.

deal first but now they are changing the rules and saying there has to be

:58:37.:58:42.

a majority in the opinion polls and we have to have several years after

:58:43.:58:46.

Brexit. What you are doing is trying to put this off until the 2020

:58:47.:58:50.

Scottish election. I'm saying what Nicola Sturgeon said would that be

:58:51.:58:57.

it would be wrong to ask for the Scottish people to vote in another

:58:58.:59:01.

referendum until there is evidence they had changed their minds and

:59:02.:59:06.

that is in there. What do you think of that? This idea of putting it off

:59:07.:59:10.

until some years after Brexit has happened is essentially saying we

:59:11.:59:16.

will drag you off a cliff and let's wait and see what happens. The

:59:17.:59:22.

consequences of leaving the European Union are so profoundly damaging

:59:23.:59:26.

economically, politically, socially, environmentally, that this... I

:59:27.:59:30.

wanted to get you on the democracy of this because some people will

:59:31.:59:34.

say, it's reasonable to wait until after Brexit. But some people will

:59:35.:59:39.

say, if the Scottish Parliament is then denied after that for a period

:59:40.:59:43.

of years, this looks like the Conservatives are just manoeuvring

:59:44.:59:47.

so there will be another Scottish election, the SNP might lose the

:59:48.:59:51.

majority they have with you and they might lose that. So this is just

:59:52.:59:57.

party political manoeuvring. That manoeuvring is clearly part of their

:59:58.:00:00.

party political manoeuvring. That calculation. The Democratic argument

:00:01.:00:02.

is clear, what's going to happen for the next couple of years. This

:00:03.:00:06.

period of uncertainty is the result of the Brexit shambles going on. The

:00:07.:00:11.

first 18 months of it, we will see a government that we did not choose

:00:12.:00:15.

negotiating with EU institutions on which we will no longer be

:00:16.:00:20.

represented. For a Brexit path Scotland did not vote for. After

:00:21.:00:24.

that, six months in which every other EU member state gets a chance

:00:25.:00:29.

to ratify it. In this process, critically important to this

:00:30.:00:32.

country, Scottish voters are the only people in the whole of Europe

:00:33.:00:35.

who will not have a voice and that is unacceptable. Will you work for a

:00:36.:00:41.

better argument for your mandate between now and Wednesday, it will

:00:42.:00:47.

have to be more convincing? My party mix of policy democratically on the

:00:48.:00:50.

conference floor and our members vote for it. We took a motion and...

:00:51.:00:57.

On the contents of Brexit because Brexit changed the world. When this

:00:58.:01:03.

row develops, will you say, isn't it reasonable to say, from your point

:01:04.:01:08.

of view, not before Brexit, but after Brexit, yes, we recognise the

:01:09.:01:12.

Scottish Parliament has legitimacy? If the people of Scotland want

:01:13.:01:18.

another referendum... That's what the First Minister and others said,

:01:19.:01:22.

they had to be clear, public expression of support for another

:01:23.:01:26.

referendum and it's not there. Why does everyone else in Europe gets to

:01:27.:01:30.

choose the country's future except the people of Scotland? I know you

:01:31.:01:33.

want to carry on but we cannot. Sitting patiently in Edinburgh

:01:34.:01:37.

through the programme so far is constitutional expert

:01:38.:01:40.

Professor Michael Keating - Just on this question of the

:01:41.:01:51.

European Union, are we now accepting that Scotland will one way or

:01:52.:01:55.

another, as to says, leave the European Union or is they ate

:01:56.:02:01.

possibility if there was a referendum towards the end of the

:02:02.:02:04.

Brexit process, Scotland could somehow stay in? If there was a

:02:05.:02:10.

referendum before Brexit occurred, it would be possible to try to get a

:02:11.:02:14.

bridging arrangement and eventually get into the European Union. The

:02:15.:02:19.

danger of having a referendum after we've left, we will be out of the

:02:20.:02:23.

European Union, into whatever arrangement the UK negotiated and it

:02:24.:02:27.

would be difficult to pick. One halfway has suggested, is Scotland

:02:28.:02:32.

could become independent going into the European economic area, which

:02:33.:02:35.

would keep it in the single market, along with Norway, maybe it would

:02:36.:02:42.

then be able to go for EU membership that would take time. There is an

:02:43.:02:47.

argument from your point of view, if people are in favour of

:02:48.:02:50.

independence, there is an argument for having a referendum before the

:02:51.:02:53.

Brexit process is finished and then saying, let's have some transitional

:02:54.:02:59.

deal for Scotland? That would be possible, that is technically

:03:00.:03:03.

possible. Independence itself would be complicated and take some time.

:03:04.:03:07.

We will have the difficult negotiations anyway. This European

:03:08.:03:13.

economic area alternative is being talked about a lot more recently. As

:03:14.:03:19.

a transition thing, not as an alternative? Some people might see

:03:20.:03:24.

it as a permanent arrangement. The downside is that you have to accept

:03:25.:03:28.

all of the policies but you don't get any say. The advantages, we

:03:29.:03:32.

would keep the single market, we wouldn't be in the agricultural and

:03:33.:03:36.

fisheries policies and we could negotiate a free arrangement with

:03:37.:03:45.

the United Kingdom. I'm interested in your take on this week's

:03:46.:03:52.

stand-off. One assumes Theresa May, I may be wrong, but for the sake of

:03:53.:03:58.

the argument, that she won't have a section 30 odd and if in a few

:03:59.:04:02.

years' time, we want another referendum after Brexit, let's talk

:04:03.:04:08.

about it. What happens, anything the Scottish Government can do? They

:04:09.:04:13.

could try to stage a unilateral referendum, try to find a form of

:04:14.:04:18.

words that would get around the courts. There was a few years ago

:04:19.:04:23.

talk about a question of whether the Scottish Government should seek new

:04:24.:04:26.

powers to negotiate Scottish independence. If that got through,

:04:27.:04:29.

the problem would be political because they referendum is only

:04:30.:04:33.

convincing if both sides participate. This has been the case

:04:34.:04:37.

in Quebec in the past, the federal government did not recognise the

:04:38.:04:43.

referendum but never the less, they participated.

:04:44.:04:50.

Just to clarify the law, the power to hold a referendum or not is

:04:51.:04:56.

reserved to Westminster? That's quite clear, the Scottish Government

:04:57.:04:59.

has agreed that in its consultation paper on the referendum. Whether

:05:00.:05:04.

some other form of words could be found to make it legal, I do not

:05:05.:05:07.

know. It has been tried in Catalonia a couple of years ago and didn't

:05:08.:05:09.

really get anywhere. The question a couple of years ago and didn't

:05:10.:05:14.

was so unclear legal position was unclear and the did not turn out and

:05:15.:05:21.

did not really resolve anything. I Act on that cheerful note of

:05:22.:05:23.

positivity, Michael Keating, we will have to leave it there.

:05:24.:05:25.

Now it's time to take a look back and at events coming

:05:26.:05:28.

Joining me this week are the Sunday times Scotland columnist

:05:29.:05:33.

and the SNP's former head of communications -

:05:34.:05:36.

Kevin Pringle and Herald columnist and former advisor

:05:37.:05:37.

to Alistair Darling - Catherine MacLeod.

:05:38.:05:45.

The obvious first question is, are you going to get involved in another

:05:46.:05:56.

campaign if one happens? I think what will happen. I think people

:05:57.:05:59.

across Scotland would love to be involved in such a campaign on both

:06:00.:06:03.

sides. It is a question of when, rather than if. That seems clear,

:06:04.:06:07.

even from what Theresa May said last week. The difficulty she got into

:06:08.:06:12.

was that it looks very much like blocking the referendum, in terms of

:06:13.:06:18.

blocking... Your carefully avoiding my question. Do you want to get

:06:19.:06:24.

involved? Of course. But we are in the very early stages and we are in

:06:25.:06:27.

a battle of hearts and minds over who will win the banner for

:06:28.:06:34.

reasonableness. Which side sounds more reasonable? It looks

:06:35.:06:40.

unreasonable, I think, in terms of the timescale the First Minister set

:06:41.:06:46.

out, to knock back the request. It was accepted last year by

:06:47.:06:52.

conservatives in Scotland that it would be wrong for the UK Government

:06:53.:06:58.

to block a referendum. She's not here to defend herself but with

:06:59.:07:01.

Davidson would say I am not standing against a referendum but I do not

:07:02.:07:04.

agree that there should be one in the near future. I think that the

:07:05.:07:10.

campaign is for who can win the contest for reasonableness. That is

:07:11.:07:13.

what we'll see when you next few days and weeks. I was a very

:07:14.:07:17.

convoluted answer to the question, are you going to get back involved?

:07:18.:07:22.

Do you have a shorter answer? Well, if there is a campaign, and I am not

:07:23.:07:26.

convinced there will be, but I would get involved. I am surprised that

:07:27.:07:31.

Kevin said that as an appetite for another campaign. He mixes in

:07:32.:07:38.

different circles from me. He said it was a battle for hearts and

:07:39.:07:45.

minds. He said there were a lot of people on both sides looking forward

:07:46.:07:49.

to the campaign. But that is not in my experience. A lot of people feel

:07:50.:08:01.

referendumed out. They would be dismayed at the prospect of another

:08:02.:08:08.

referendum campaign. If you want to hear what Alistair Darling thinks,

:08:09.:08:10.

you would have to ask him. But what I do think is that there are dozens

:08:11.:08:21.

of meetings going on in London between officials in Scotland and

:08:22.:08:27.

officials in the UK Government and I think the less that we do to

:08:28.:08:32.

undermine the UK's position in the negotiations with Brussels, the

:08:33.:08:37.

better. Everybody, both sides of the border, want to have a tether free

:08:38.:08:41.

trade agreement, to protect workers' rights, to look after EU citizens

:08:42.:08:48.

and British citizens abroad. We should focus on that, not on whether

:08:49.:08:52.

or not we want to break up the UK. Playing the politics of this will be

:08:53.:08:56.

interesting, Kevin. There is this odd thing is that where everyone

:08:57.:08:59.

knows about the SNP will say our timetable is reasonable, actually

:09:00.:09:04.

they will look for any excuse for a referendum. And everyone knows that

:09:05.:09:09.

everyone who is against the referendum would like to never have

:09:10.:09:12.

a referendum again. It will be politically how you cut through

:09:13.:09:18.

that. Yes, I think opinion is quite balanced on this question. Even

:09:19.:09:22.

looking at the Sunday Times poll, the idea of having a referendum by

:09:23.:09:26.

the time of the Brexit negotiations being over, which is actually

:09:27.:09:29.

October, 2018, according to the European Commissioner's chief

:09:30.:09:34.

negotiator, Michel Barnier, that actually reflect the First

:09:35.:09:36.

Minister's timetable for a referendum. It is quite balanced.

:09:37.:09:45.

Probably about 50-50. 52% was suggested by one hole. What about

:09:46.:09:55.

the idea from Jackson Carlaw that the Conservatives are raising, that

:09:56.:10:00.

there should be a bedding in period, it is not just about voting to leave

:10:01.:10:05.

and that is it. Let's wait and see if the dire things the Nicola

:10:06.:10:08.

Sturgeon says would arise from that actually do arise or not. Because

:10:09.:10:13.

they can't point the way the economy has performed since friends and say,

:10:14.:10:17.

look, all these forecasts of gloom and doom turned out to be wrong so

:10:18.:10:23.

far, maybe they will happen, but let's wait to see. But I don't think

:10:24.:10:28.

it can be open-ended. There was a famous anecdote where someone was

:10:29.:10:35.

asked about the impact of something in the 1970s and he said it was too

:10:36.:10:40.

early to tell. I think the point of judgment surely would be around

:10:41.:10:42.

about the autumn of 2018, when we know that parameters and detail of

:10:43.:10:48.

Brexit negotiations. And also, as a matter of democracy, given a mandate

:10:49.:10:53.

that was secured in the election last year obviously applies to its

:10:54.:10:56.

Holyrood parliament, I think is a matter of democracy, the question

:10:57.:11:03.

needs to be passed before the end of this Parliament... The Greens

:11:04.:11:08.

arguably do not have a mandate. As Patrick said, even if the Greens

:11:09.:11:13.

abstained, the SNP majority carries anyway. There will be a Scottish

:11:14.:11:16.

Parliament vote on Wednesday and will formally call for a referendum

:11:17.:11:22.

within the timescale of autumn 2018, Spring 2019 but I detected from the

:11:23.:11:25.

First Minister's Speech yesterday that she is prepared to negotiate

:11:26.:11:33.

about that. What do you make of this, Catherine? I think Nicola's

:11:34.:11:36.

position is understandable, she can enter politics to the UK and that is

:11:37.:11:41.

what she wants do. What Patrick was saying, I do not understand at all.

:11:42.:11:48.

Here is a party, a Green Party, who, the environment should be their

:11:49.:11:49.

raison d' tre for being in politics, raison d'etre for being in politics,

:11:50.:11:54.

they have got a position, Scotland has a position, the UK has a

:11:55.:11:57.

position to negotiate the best for the environment in Scotland and yet

:11:58.:12:00.

they seem to be undermining and ready to undermine the negotiations

:12:01.:12:03.

that are going on at the moment. The timescale? I don't know. I think

:12:04.:12:09.

2018 will be too early because people in Scotland will be being

:12:10.:12:21.

asked to vote for a pig in a poke... Will you be better to leave it for a

:12:22.:12:26.

few years after that? None of us know what we're voting for. People

:12:27.:12:30.

talk about hard Brexit, soft Brexit, these are meaningless. Theresa May,

:12:31.:12:37.

I am not here to defend her, but she will be wanting the best Brexit

:12:38.:12:41.

outcome for the UK. What people mean by hard or soft, I have no idea. In

:12:42.:12:49.

2018, if that is when they think we should ask, what will be the promise

:12:50.:12:53.

to the Scottish people and when the team? Before anybody has any more

:12:54.:12:56.

votes, I think that is what was wrong with the original... What

:12:57.:13:00.

about this conservative ideology of a few years to see if it actually

:13:01.:13:06.

works? I can see sense in that. It is better to know what people are

:13:07.:13:09.

voting for to give people a chance to have a sensible vote on their

:13:10.:13:12.

future rather than putting your finger in the wind. There will be

:13:13.:13:24.

another Scottish election in 2021, so the mandate runs out, so they

:13:25.:13:31.

would before then? Yes. The mandate was achieved for this Parliament and

:13:32.:13:34.

that is when it needs to happen. Thank you for joining us. I have a

:13:35.:13:38.

feeling this debate may continue. That's all for this week,

:13:39.:13:41.

I'm back at the same time next week.

:13:42.:13:45.

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