19/03/2017 Sunday Politics Scotland


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19/03/2017

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Andrew is joined by head of NHS Providers Chris Hopson, Nick Clegg MP and Andrew Gwynne MP.


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:34.:00:36.

She faces huge political fights over Brexit, Scottish independence,

:00:37.:00:40.

After a tumultuous political week, we'll analyse the PM's prospects.

:00:41.:00:53.

With chatter increasing about a possible early General Election,

:00:54.:00:55.

Jeremy Corbyn's campaign chief joins me live.

:00:56.:01:00.

NHS bosses warn health services in England are facing "mission

:01:01.:01:03.

impossible" and waiting times for operations will rocket,

:01:04.:01:07.

unless hospitals are given more cash this year.

:01:08.:01:10.

The chief executive of NHS Providers joins me live.

:01:11.:01:16.

The stand-off continues - Theresa May says "Not now"

:01:17.:01:19.

but Nicola Sturgeon insists the will of the Scottish Parliament

:01:20.:01:22.

will prevail and there WILL be a second independence referendum -

:01:23.:01:25.

All that to come before 12:15pm, and I'll also be talking

:01:26.:01:36.

to the former leader of the Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg

:01:37.:01:39.

from his party's spring conference in York.

:01:40.:01:41.

With me here in the studio, throughout the programme,

:01:42.:01:46.

three of the country's top political commentators:

:01:47.:01:47.

Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

:01:48.:01:53.

They'll be tweeting their thoughts using #bbcsp.

:01:54.:01:55.

So, the political challenges facing Theresa May are stacking up.

:01:56.:01:58.

As well as negotiating Britain's exit from the EU,

:01:59.:02:04.

the PM must now deal with SNP demands for a second referendum

:02:05.:02:07.

on Scottish independence, backbenchers agitating against cuts

:02:08.:02:12.

to school budgets, and a humiliated Chancellor forced to u-turn on a key

:02:13.:02:15.

budget measure just one week after announcing it.

:02:16.:02:20.

Here's Adam Fleming on aturbulent political week

:02:21.:02:21.

Monday, 11:30am, TV crews gather in the residence of the First

:02:22.:02:38.

Minister of Scotland, who's got a surprise.

:02:39.:02:40.

She wants a vote on whether Scotland should leave the UK

:02:41.:02:43.

By taking the steps I have set out today I am ensuring that Scotland's

:02:44.:02:47.

future will be decided, not just by me, the

:02:48.:02:50.

Scottish Government, or the

:02:51.:02:51.

SNP, it will be decided by the people of Scotland.

:02:52.:02:53.

Westminster, 6:25pm the same day, MPs reject

:02:54.:03:03.

amendments to the legislation authorising the Prime Minister to

:03:04.:03:07.

The Bill ceremonially heads to the Lords where peers abandoned

:03:08.:03:21.

attempts to change it and it becomes law.

:03:22.:03:22.

But Downing Street doesn't trigger Article 50 as many had expected.

:03:23.:03:29.

Some say they were spooked by Nicola Sturgeon.

:03:30.:03:32.

We get an e-mail from the Treasury can the

:03:33.:03:48.

We get an e-mail from the Treasury cancelling

:03:49.:03:50.

the planned rise in National Insurance for

:03:51.:04:01.

the self-employed announced the budget.

:04:02.:04:03.

It's just minutes before Prime Minister's Questions at noon.

:04:04.:04:05.

The trend towards greater self-employment does create a

:04:06.:04:07.

We will bring forward further proposals

:04:08.:04:09.

but we will not bring forward increases to NICs later in this

:04:10.:04:12.

It seems to me like a government in a bit of chaos here.

:04:13.:04:16.

By making this change today we are listening to our colleagues

:04:17.:04:19.

fulfil both the letter and the spirit of our manifesto tax

:04:20.:04:23.

Thursday, 7am, Conservative campaign HQ and the

:04:24.:04:32.

Electoral Commission fines the party ?70,000 for misreporting spending

:04:33.:04:35.

But that's not what the Prime Minister

:04:36.:04:38.

Because at 12:19pm she gives her verdict on a

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We should be working together, not pulling apart.

:04:45.:04:49.

We should be working together to get that

:04:50.:04:51.

right deal for Scotland, that

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So, as I say, that's my job as Prime Minister and

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so for that reason I say to the SNP now is not the time.

:04:58.:05:00.

Friday and time for the faithful to gather.

:05:01.:05:03.

SNP activists at their spring conference

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Conservatives in Cardiff to hear the Prime Minister

:05:05.:05:15.

promote her plan for a more meritocratic Brexit Britain.

:05:16.:05:19.

At 11:10am comes some news about a newspaper that's frankly

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I'm thrilled and excited to be the new editor of The

:05:22.:05:28.

Evening Standard and, you know, with so many

:05:29.:05:30.

big issues in our world what

:05:31.:05:31.

good analysis, great news journalism.

:05:32.:05:37.

It's a really important time for good journalism that The

:05:38.:05:41.

Evening Standard is going to provide.

:05:42.:05:43.

There was no let-up yesterday as Gordon Brown launched proposals

:05:44.:05:50.

Under my proposals we keep the Barnett

:05:51.:05:55.

Formula, we keep the fiscal transfers, but we also bring the

:05:56.:05:59.

and fisheries back to the Scottish Parliament.

:06:00.:06:03.

And just think, all this and we're still counting down to the

:06:04.:06:06.

What a week in politics. It has been a torrid week for the government,

:06:07.:06:24.

Isabel Oakeshott, but does Theresa May shake it off, or is this a sign

:06:25.:06:28.

of worse to come? We may all be feeling a bit breathless after the

:06:29.:06:31.

events of last week and we are in for a a long war of attrition with

:06:32.:06:39.

the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon's strategy will be to foster over lengthy

:06:40.:06:43.

periods of time as much resentment and anger as she can in Scotland and

:06:44.:06:48.

try to create the impression that independence is somehow inevitable.

:06:49.:06:53.

Is Scotland the biggest challenge for Theresa May in the next year or

:06:54.:06:57.

so? I think it probably is because if you look at how relatively easily

:06:58.:07:00.

the Brexit bill went through on an issue where people could hardly feel

:07:01.:07:05.

more passionate in the Commons, and actually despite all the potential

:07:06.:07:08.

drama it has gone through quite smoothly. To go back to your

:07:09.:07:12.

original question, she just carries on. Don't underestimate the basic

:07:13.:07:16.

quiet and will towards Theresa May amongst the majority of Tory

:07:17.:07:21.

backbenchers. Yes, there are difficult little issues over school

:07:22.:07:25.

funding, sorry, it's not a little issue, it is a big one but she will

:07:26.:07:29.

get over that and treat each thing as it comes and keep pressing on.

:07:30.:07:33.

Has she not called Nicola Sturgeon's Bluff in that the First Minister

:07:34.:07:38.

said I want a referendum, here is roughly when I wanted, the Prime

:07:39.:07:43.

Minister says you're not having one. What happens next? She has done

:07:44.:07:47.

quite well and impact the progress Theresa May made this week in

:07:48.:07:52.

frustrating Nicola Sturgeon was evident when Nicola Sturgeon said,

:07:53.:07:55.

OK, maybe we can talk about the timing after. Nicola Sturgeon has

:07:56.:07:59.

already been the first one to blink. I would slightly disagree with

:08:00.:08:02.

Isabel Oakeshott, I don't agree Scotland will be the biggest hurdle

:08:03.:08:06.

for her. What this week showed as is Theresa May... It was a reality

:08:07.:08:11.

bites week. Theresa May is juggling four mammoth crises at the same

:08:12.:08:15.

time, Brexit obviously which I still think will be the biggest challenge

:08:16.:08:18.

to get a good deal, Trump left field who popped up at GCHQ on Friday and

:08:19.:08:25.

Scotland and the fiscal challenge, this enormous great problem, and it

:08:26.:08:30.

reinforced the point this is not an easy time in politics. The budget is

:08:31.:08:36.

over four years. That was one small problem, the immediate problem is

:08:37.:08:40.

how to fill the social care crisis and the ageing demographic. This is

:08:41.:08:43.

not normal times in British politics and Theresa May does not have a

:08:44.:08:46.

normal workload on her plate, hence why I think we will see more

:08:47.:08:51.

mistakes made as time goes on and as she has this almost impossible

:08:52.:08:56.

workload to juggle. How tempted do you think the Prime Minister is to

:08:57.:08:59.

call an early election? There is more chatter about it now. Is she

:09:00.:09:04.

tempted and if there is will she succumb? I will answer that in a

:09:05.:09:07.

second as Harold Wilson used to say. I want to agree, disagree with the

:09:08.:09:11.

rest of the panel about how she has out manipulated Nicola Sturgeon this

:09:12.:09:15.

week. I think Nicola Sturgeon expected Theresa May to say no to

:09:16.:09:19.

her expected timetable. It would be amazing if she had said yes. She

:09:20.:09:24.

expected her to say no but Sturgeon catalyst that will fuel support for

:09:25.:09:28.

her cause. There is no sign of that. The latest poll this morning shows

:09:29.:09:34.

66-44 against independence and only 13% think they would be better off

:09:35.:09:39.

with an independent Scotland and a clear majority do not want a second

:09:40.:09:44.

referendum. But the calculation of resistance from Westminster combined

:09:45.:09:47.

with Brexit which hasn't started yet, I think this is her

:09:48.:09:50.

calculation, she didn't expect Theresa May to say, sure, go ahead,

:09:51.:09:54.

I'm sure she expected Theresa May to say no, you can't have it at your

:09:55.:09:59.

desired timetable. On the wider point, I think Theresa May is in a

:10:00.:10:03.

fascinating position, she is both strong because she faces weak

:10:04.:10:07.

opposition and is ahead in the opinion polls. But faces the most

:10:08.:10:12.

daunting agenda of any Prime Minister for 40 or 50 years, I

:10:13.:10:16.

think. So it's a weird combination. I don't think she wants to call an

:10:17.:10:20.

election. I don't think she has thought about how you would

:10:21.:10:23.

manipulate it, what the trigger would be, and whether she's got the

:10:24.:10:27.

energy and space to prepare for and then mount a campaign was beginning

:10:28.:10:33.

the Brexit negotiation. Now, you could see the cause would be the

:10:34.:10:38.

small majorities that will make her life hellish, which it will do.

:10:39.:10:41.

Whether a landslide would help is another question, they can be

:10:42.:10:45.

difficult too. But I think the problems outweigh the advantages of

:10:46.:10:49.

going early. Do you think she would go for an early election? I don't

:10:50.:10:53.

and I think you have to look at the rhetoric coming out of No 10 which

:10:54.:10:57.

is so firm on this question, it is a delicious prospect for us as

:10:58.:11:00.

commentators to think there might be an election around the corner but

:11:01.:11:03.

they are so firm on this I can't see it happening. I agree, we are in

:11:04.:11:08.

unanimous agreement on this one. It is superficially attractive because

:11:09.:11:10.

she would love the big majority and she would get a lot more through

:11:11.:11:14.

Parliament especially with Brexit. The nitty-gritty of it makes an

:11:15.:11:17.

early General Election this year almost impossible. How do you write

:11:18.:11:22.

a manifesto on high Brexit versus soft Brexit, it opens up a Pandora's

:11:23.:11:27.

box of uncertainties. And there is enough with the European elections.

:11:28.:11:31.

The EU will say are we negotiating with you or the person who may

:11:32.:11:35.

replace you? How do you keep the Tory party united going to an

:11:36.:11:39.

election? How do you call one, with a vote of no confidence in yourself

:11:40.:11:43.

you may end up losing. Easy on paper but difficult in practice. We shall

:11:44.:11:44.

see. So if Theresa May did go

:11:45.:11:46.

for an early election this spring, The party's campaigns

:11:47.:11:48.

and elections chief Andrew Gwynne Andrew Gwynne, the government, as we

:11:49.:11:59.

have just been talking about, executed one of the most

:12:00.:12:02.

embarrassing U-turns in recent history this week. It has been a

:12:03.:12:05.

torrid time for the Theresa May government. Why are the Tories still

:12:06.:12:09.

so chipper? The Labour Party has been on an

:12:10.:12:14.

early election footing since before Christmas and we are preparing

:12:15.:12:17.

ourselves for that eventuality in case that does come. That means that

:12:18.:12:21.

we've got to get ourselves into a position whereby we can not only

:12:22.:12:26.

challenge the government but we can also offer a valuable alternative

:12:27.:12:32.

for the British people to choose from should that election arise. So,

:12:33.:12:38.

would you welcome an early General Election? Well, of course, I don't

:12:39.:12:41.

want this government to be in power so of course if there is an

:12:42.:12:44.

opportunity to put a case to the British people as to why there is a

:12:45.:12:48.

better way, and I believe the Labour way is the better way than of course

:12:49.:12:53.

we would want to put that case to the country. So, would Labour vote

:12:54.:12:58.

in the Commons for an early election? Well, of course as an

:12:59.:13:02.

opposition, not wanting to be in opposition, wanting to be in

:13:03.:13:06.

government should the government put forward a measure in accordance with

:13:07.:13:10.

the Fixed-term Parliaments Act then that's something we would very

:13:11.:13:13.

seriously have to consider. I know you would have to consider it but

:13:14.:13:17.

would you vote for an early election or not? Well, of course we want to

:13:18.:13:22.

be the government so if the current government puts forward measures to

:13:23.:13:25.

bring forward a General Election we would want to put our case to the

:13:26.:13:29.

British public and that's one of the jobs that I've been given, together

:13:30.:13:34.

Labour Party organisation early into a position where we can fight a

:13:35.:13:37.

General Election -- organisationally. For the avoidance

:13:38.:13:42.

of doubt, if the Government work to issue a motion in the Commons for an

:13:43.:13:46.

early election, the Labour Party would vote for an early election?

:13:47.:13:50.

It would be very difficult not, Andrew. If the Government wants to

:13:51.:13:54.

dissolve parliament, wants a General Election, we don't want the Tories

:13:55.:13:57.

in government, we want to be in government and we want to have that

:13:58.:14:02.

opportunity to put that case to the British people.

:14:03.:14:04.

Are you ready for an early election? You say you have been on a war all

:14:05.:14:13.

but since the Labour conference last autumn, but are you ready for one?

:14:14.:14:15.

How big is the election fighting fund? We have substantial amounts of

:14:16.:14:18.

money in our fighting fund, that is true, because not only has the

:14:19.:14:23.

Labour Party managed to eliminate its own financial deficit that it

:14:24.:14:28.

inherited from previous election campaigns, we have also managed to

:14:29.:14:36.

build up a substantial fund in the off chance we have an election. We

:14:37.:14:41.

have also expanded massively operations at Labour HQ, we are

:14:42.:14:45.

taking on additional staff, and one of the jobs that myself and Ian

:14:46.:14:48.

Lavery who I job share with are currently doing is to go around the

:14:49.:14:52.

Parliamentary Labour Party to make sure that Labour colleagues have the

:14:53.:14:56.

support and the resources that they need, should they have to face the

:14:57.:14:59.

electorate in their constituencies. So you are on a war footing, ready

:15:00.:15:04.

for the fight, you say you would vote for the fight, so have you got

:15:05.:15:08.

your tax and spend policies ready to roll out? That is something the

:15:09.:15:13.

shadow Treasury team will be discussing. One of the things is, if

:15:14.:15:18.

there is an early General Election, the normal timetable for these

:15:19.:15:21.

things gets fast-track because our policy decision-making body, its

:15:22.:15:26.

annual conference, we have the national policy forum that creates

:15:27.:15:31.

policies suggestions. You have been on a war footing since the last

:15:32.:15:34.

Labour conference, that is what Mr Corbyn told us. So you must have a

:15:35.:15:38.

fair idea of what policies you would fight an early election on. How much

:15:39.:15:43.

extra per year would you spend on the NHS? Well, look, I'm not going

:15:44.:15:47.

to set out the Labour manifesto for an election that hasn't been called.

:15:48.:15:51.

I'm just asking you about the NHS. You must have a policy for that. We

:15:52.:15:56.

have a policy for the NHS. So how much extra? I will not set out

:15:57.:16:01.

Labour's tax-and-spend policies here on The Sunday Politics when there

:16:02.:16:05.

hasn't even been election called. You said you had been on a war

:16:06.:16:09.

footing and you are prepared to vote for one, so if you can't Tommy that,

:16:10.:16:15.

can you tell me what the corporation rate tax on company profits be under

:16:16.:16:19.

a Labour government -- tell me that. You will have to be patient. I have.

:16:20.:16:26.

And wait for Mrs May to trigger an early election. If there is an

:16:27.:16:29.

election on the 4th of May the rich would have to be issued on the 27th

:16:30.:16:33.

of March, so that's not long to wait. If that date passes we aren't

:16:34.:16:39.

having an election on the 4th of May and the normal timetable for policy

:16:40.:16:44.

development will continue. All right. You lost Copeland, I think

:16:45.:16:48.

you were in charge of a by-election for Labour, your national poll

:16:49.:16:51.

ratings are still dire, even after week of terrible times for the

:16:52.:16:57.

Tories. Sometimes you even lose local government by-elections in

:16:58.:17:01.

safe seats, including in the place you are now, in Salford. How long

:17:02.:17:05.

does Mr Corbyn have to turn this around? Well, look, the issue of the

:17:06.:17:10.

Labour leadership was settled last year. The last thing the Labour

:17:11.:17:14.

Party now needs is another period of introspection with the Labour Party

:17:15.:17:18.

merely talks to the Labour Party. We are now on an election footing in

:17:19.:17:24.

case Mrs May does trigger an early General Election. We need to be

:17:25.:17:29.

talking to the British people are not to ourselves. So any speculation

:17:30.:17:33.

about the Labour leadership might excite you in the media but actually

:17:34.:17:38.

for us in the Labour Party it's about re-engaging and reconnecting

:17:39.:17:41.

with the voters. Rather than being excited, I feel quite daunted at the

:17:42.:17:45.

prospect of an early election. So I wouldn't get that right. Normally,

:17:46.:17:51.

given the number of mistakes this government has made, and its

:17:52.:17:55.

mid-term, you would expect any self-respecting opposition to be

:17:56.:17:59.

about ten points ahead. On the latest polls this morning you are 17

:18:00.:18:04.

behind. There is a 27-30 point gap from where you should normally be as

:18:05.:18:09.

an opposition. Are you telling me that if that doesn't change, you

:18:10.:18:12.

still fight the General Election with Mr Corbyn?

:18:13.:18:18.

These are matters for the future. I believe the leadership issue was

:18:19.:18:26.

settled last year. We have had two leadership contest in two years.

:18:27.:18:30.

Would you seriously contemplate going into the next election, if it

:18:31.:18:34.

is early I perfectly understand Jeremy Corbyn is your man, but if it

:18:35.:18:40.

is not until 2020, and you are still 17 points behind in the polls, will

:18:41.:18:44.

you go into the next election like that? There is a lot of future

:18:45.:18:48.

looking and speculation there, I don't know what the future holds,

:18:49.:18:58.

where the Labour Party will be in 12 months let alone by 2020 summit

:18:59.:19:00.

cross those bridges when we come to it. My main challenge is to make

:19:01.:19:03.

sure the Labour Party is in the best possible place organisationally to

:19:04.:19:06.

fight an election, that's my challenge and I'm up for that to

:19:07.:19:09.

make sure we are in the best possible place to make sure Labour

:19:10.:19:16.

returns as many Labour MPs as possible. Thank you for joining us.

:19:17.:19:22.

And we're joined now from the Liberal Democrats' spring

:19:23.:19:24.

conference in York by the former Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg.

:19:25.:19:26.

Good morning. In his conference speech today, Tim Farron lumps

:19:27.:19:35.

Theresa May with Vladimir Putin, Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump. In

:19:36.:19:40.

what way is Mrs May similar to Marine Le Pen? Of course he is not

:19:41.:19:48.

saying Theresa May is identical to Marine Le Pen, I think what Tim

:19:49.:19:54.

Wilby spelling out shortly in his speech is that we need to be aware

:19:55.:19:58.

what's going on in the world, the International settlement that was

:19:59.:20:05.

arrived at after the First World -- Second World War, that bound

:20:06.:20:11.

supranational organisations is under attack from characters as diverse as

:20:12.:20:16.

Vladimir Putin, Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump, and that by side in so

:20:17.:20:20.

ostentatiously with Donald Trump and pursuing this very hard Brexit,

:20:21.:20:24.

Theresa May appears to be giving succour to that much more

:20:25.:20:29.

isolationist chauvinist view of the world than the multilateral approach

:20:30.:20:33.

that Britain has subscribed to for a long time. The exact words he plans

:20:34.:20:38.

to use are welcome to the New World order, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump,

:20:39.:20:47.

Marine Le Pen, Theresa May, aggressive and teenage to, anti-EU,

:20:48.:20:52.

nationalistic. In what way is Mrs May fitting into any of that? In

:20:53.:20:57.

what way is she similar to Vladimir Putin? I'm not aware she has

:20:58.:21:03.

interfered with other people's elections. The clue is in the quote

:21:04.:21:08.

you just read out, which is the world order. The world order over

:21:09.:21:13.

the last half century or more, by the way a lesson I'm afraid we have

:21:14.:21:17.

to learn in Europe because of the terrible bloodshed of two world was

:21:18.:21:22.

in the space of a few decades, was based on the idea might is not

:21:23.:21:26.

right. Strong arm leaders cannot throw their weight around. What we

:21:27.:21:32.

have now with Putin, the populism across parts of Europe and Donald

:21:33.:21:39.

Trump who thinks the EU will unravel is a shift to a radically different

:21:40.:21:44.

view of the world. Mrs May doesn't think any of that. She is not

:21:45.:21:50.

antenatal, not anti-EU, she says she wants the EU to succeed. She's not

:21:51.:21:56.

aggressive as far as I'm aware so I'm not sure why you would lump the

:21:57.:21:59.

British Prime Minister in with these other characters. Let me explain, by

:22:00.:22:06.

choosing this uncompromising approach to Brexit, clearly in doing

:22:07.:22:13.

so she, in my view, maybe not yours or others, is pursuing a self

:22:14.:22:17.

harming approach to the United Kingdom but also pulling up the

:22:18.:22:21.

threads that bind the rest of the European Union together, in so

:22:22.:22:26.

ostentatiously siding with Donald Trump, somehow declaring in my view

:22:27.:22:31.

speciously that we can make up with the trade we will lose, she's not

:22:32.:22:40.

challenging the shift to a more chauvinist approach to world affairs

:22:41.:22:44.

that is happening in many places. You are at your party's Spring

:22:45.:22:49.

conference, I think we can agree any Lib Dem come back will take a long

:22:50.:22:54.

time. Would Tory dominance be more effectively challenged by a

:22:55.:22:59.

realignment of the centre and the centre-left? Are you working towards

:23:00.:23:04.

that? I missed half the question but I think you are talking about a

:23:05.:23:11.

realignment. As a cook a way to get over Tory dominance, would you want

:23:12.:23:15.

that to happen? Are you working towards that? My view is the

:23:16.:23:20.

recovery of the Lib Dems will be quicker than you suggest. People

:23:21.:23:25.

often forget that even the low point of our fortunes in the last election

:23:26.:23:29.

we still got a million more votes than the SNP, it's only because we

:23:30.:23:33.

have got this crazy electoral system... But the SNP fight in

:23:34.:23:42.

Scotland, you fight in the whole country! But I'm saying the way

:23:43.:23:48.

seats are allocated overlooks the fact that 2.5 million still voted

:23:49.:23:57.

for us. But my own view is of course there are people feeling

:23:58.:24:01.

increasingly homeless in the liberal wing of the Conservative Party

:24:02.:24:04.

because they are now in a party which is in effect indistinguishable

:24:05.:24:08.

from Ukip on some of the biggest issues of the day, and homeless folk

:24:09.:24:14.

on the rational, reasonable wing of the Labour Party. I would invite

:24:15.:24:18.

them to join the Liberal Democrats and I would invite everyone across

:24:19.:24:23.

parties to talk about the idea is that bind us because the Westminster

:24:24.:24:28.

village can invest a lot of energy building new castles in the sky,

:24:29.:24:32.

inventing new names for parties when actually what you want is for people

:24:33.:24:35.

on the progressive centre ground of British politics to talk about the

:24:36.:24:47.

ideas that unite them, from the dilemmas of artificial intelligence

:24:48.:24:52.

to climate change. Do you think in your own view, can Brexit still be

:24:53.:24:56.

thwarted or is it now a matter of getting the best terms? I think we

:24:57.:25:05.

are in an interlude, almost a calm between two storms, the storm of the

:25:06.:25:09.

referendum itself and the collision between the Government's stated

:25:10.:25:13.

ambitions for Brexit and the reality of having to negotiate something

:25:14.:25:17.

unworkable with 27 other governments. The one thing I can

:25:18.:25:22.

guarantee you is that what the Government has promised to the

:25:23.:25:33.

British people cannot happen. Over a slower period of time we will work

:25:34.:25:38.

out our new relationship with the European Union. Theresa May said she

:25:39.:25:42.

will settle divorce arrangements, and pensions, so one, negotiate new

:25:43.:25:48.

trade agreements, new climate change policies and so on, and have all of

:25:49.:25:53.

that ratified within two years, that will not happen so I think there

:25:54.:25:57.

will be a lot of turbulence in the next couple of years. Will you use

:25:58.:26:03.

this turbulence to try to thwart Brexit, to find a way of rolling

:26:04.:26:09.

back the decision? It's not about repeating the debates of the past or

:26:10.:26:13.

thwarting the will of the people but it is comparing what people were

:26:14.:26:19.

promised from the ?350 million for the NHS every week through to this

:26:20.:26:25.

glittering array of new trade agreements we will sign across the

:26:26.:26:29.

world, with the reality that will transpire in the next couple of

:26:30.:26:33.

years and at that point, yes it is my belief people should be able to

:26:34.:26:37.

take a second look at if that is what they really want. A couple of

:26:38.:26:41.

quick questions, would you welcome an early general election? I always

:26:42.:26:49.

welcome them, we couldn't do worse than we did last time. That is

:26:50.:26:56.

certainly true. You have a column in the Evening Standard, have you

:26:57.:26:58.

spoken to the new editor about whether he will keep your column or

:26:59.:27:05.

spike it? No, I wait in nervous anticipation. Can you be a newspaper

:27:06.:27:12.

editor in the morning and an MP in the afternoon? Do I think that's

:27:13.:27:20.

feasible? Sorry, I missed a bit. There is no prohibition, no law

:27:21.:27:25.

against MPs being editors. They have been in the past and no doubt will

:27:26.:27:30.

again in the future. He is taking a lot on, he is an editor, also

:27:31.:27:37.

wanting to be an MP, a jetsetting academic in the States, working in

:27:38.:27:41.

the city, I suspect something will give. It seems to me even by his

:27:42.:27:46.

self-confidence standards in his own abilities I suspect he is taking on

:27:47.:27:52.

a little bit too much. Very diplomatic, Mr Clegg, I'm sure you

:27:53.:27:55.

will get to keep the column. Thanks for joining us.

:27:56.:28:00.

Now, for the last six months England's NHS bosses have been

:28:01.:28:02.

warning the health service needs more money to help it meet

:28:03.:28:05.

But in his first Budget, the Chancellor offered

:28:06.:28:08.

no immediate relief, and today the head of

:28:09.:28:10.

the organisation representing England's NHS trusts says hundreds

:28:11.:28:12.

of thousands of patients will have to wait longer for both emergency

:28:13.:28:15.

care and planned operations, unless the Government

:28:16.:28:16.

Warnings over funding are not exactly new.

:28:17.:28:24.

Back in 2014 the head of the NHS in England, Simon Stevens,

:28:25.:28:27.

published his plan for the future of the health service.

:28:28.:28:31.

In his five-year forward view, Stevens said the NHS in England

:28:32.:28:34.

would face a funding shortfall of up to ?30 billion by 2020.

:28:35.:28:37.

To bridge that gap he said the NHS would need more money

:28:38.:28:40.

from the Government, at least ?8 billion extra,

:28:41.:28:44.

and that the health service could account for the rest by making

:28:45.:28:47.

The Government says it's given the health service more than what it

:28:48.:28:54.

asked for, and that NHS in England will have received

:28:55.:28:56.

That number is disputed by NHS managers and the chair

:28:57.:29:02.

of Parliament's health committee, who say the figure is more

:29:03.:29:04.

like ?4.5 billion, while other parts of the health and social care budget

:29:05.:29:07.

have been cut, putting pressure on the front line.

:29:08.:29:13.

Last year, two thirds of NHS trusts in England finished

:29:14.:29:16.

the year in the red, and despite emergency bailouts

:29:17.:29:19.

from the Government, the NHS is likely to record

:29:20.:29:21.

Meanwhile national targets on waiting times for A

:29:22.:29:26.

departments, diagnostic tests, and operations are being

:29:27.:29:28.

This month's Budget provided ?2 billion for social care

:29:29.:29:36.

but there was no new cash for the NHS, leading trusts to warn

:29:37.:29:40.

that patient care is beginning to suffer, and what is being asked

:29:41.:29:43.

And I'm joined now by the Chief Executive of NHS

:29:44.:29:49.

Providers in England, Chris Hopson.

:29:50.:29:54.

Welcome to the programme. Morning, Andrew. I will come onto the extra

:29:55.:30:01.

money you need to do your job properly in a minute but first, part

:30:02.:30:06.

of the deal was you had to make 22 billion in efficiency savings, not a

:30:07.:30:09.

bank that money but spend it on patient care, the front line, and so

:30:10.:30:15.

on. How is that going? So, last parliament we realised around 18

:30:16.:30:17.

billion of productivity and efficiency savings, we are realising

:30:18.:30:21.

more this year so we are on course to realise 3 billion this year, that

:30:22.:30:25.

is a quarter of a billion more than last year but all of us in the NHS

:30:26.:30:30.

knew the 22 billion would be a very stretching target and we are

:30:31.:30:34.

somewhat inevitably falling short. So it is 22 billion by 2,020.

:30:35.:30:41.

Roughly. That was the time. We are now into 2017. So how much of the 22

:30:42.:30:49.

billion have you achieved? We realised around 3 billion last year

:30:50.:30:54.

and we will realise 3 billion this year, Court of billion more, 3.25

:30:55.:31:00.

billion this year, so we are on course for 18-19,000,000,000. By the

:31:01.:31:04.

2021 period? You are not that far away. The problem is the degree to

:31:05.:31:08.

which demand is going up. We have record demand over the winter period

:31:09.:31:13.

and that actually meant we have seen more people than we have ever seen

:31:14.:31:17.

before but performance is still under real pressure. Let me come

:31:18.:31:23.

onto that. When you agreed on the 22 billion efficiency savings plus some

:31:24.:31:27.

extra money from the government, I know there is a bit of an argument

:31:28.:31:31.

about how much that is actually worth, had you not factored in this

:31:32.:31:36.

extra demand that you saw coming over the next three or four years?

:31:37.:31:40.

Let's be very clear committee referred to Simon Stevens's forward

:31:41.:31:45.

view and we signed up to it but the 22 billion was a process run at the

:31:46.:31:49.

centre of government by the Department of Health with its arms

:31:50.:31:52.

length bodies, NHS England and others and is not something that was

:31:53.:31:56.

consulted on with the NHS. But you signed up to it. We always said that

:31:57.:32:00.

the day that that Spending Review was announced, the idea that the NHS

:32:01.:32:06.

where customer demand goes up something like four or 5% every

:32:07.:32:09.

year, the idea that in the middle years of Parliament we would be able

:32:10.:32:13.

to provide the same level of service when we were only getting funding

:32:14.:32:19.

increases of 1.3%, 0.4% and 0.7%, and I can show you the press release

:32:20.:32:23.

we issued, we always said there was going to be a gap and that we would

:32:24.:32:28.

not be able to deliver what was required. The full 22 billion in

:32:29.:32:35.

other words? What we said to Simon Stevens at the Public Accounts

:32:36.:32:37.

Committee a few months ago, the NHS didn't get what it was asked for.

:32:38.:32:43.

Today the NHS, cope with the resources it has according to you.

:32:44.:32:50.

How much more does it need? Are reported is about 2017-18 and we

:32:51.:32:52.

estimate that what we are being asked to do, and again, Andrew, you

:32:53.:32:56.

clearly set it out in the package, we are a long way off the four-hour

:32:57.:33:02.

A target and a long way off the 92%. The waiting times and

:33:03.:33:06.

operations. How much more do you need? And we are making up a ?900

:33:07.:33:11.

million deficit. If you take all of those into account we estimate you

:33:12.:33:15.

would need an extra ?3.5 billion next year in order to deliver all of

:33:16.:33:20.

those targets and eliminate the deficit. That would be 3.5 billion

:33:21.:33:23.

on top of what is already planned next year and that would be 3.5

:33:24.:33:28.

billion repeated in the years to come too? Yes, Andrew it is

:33:29.:33:31.

important we should make an important distinction about the NHS

:33:32.:33:37.

versus other public services. When the last government, the last Labour

:33:38.:33:40.

government put extra money into the NHS it clearly said that in return

:33:41.:33:44.

for that it would establish some standards in the NHS Constitution,

:33:45.:33:49.

the 95% A target we have talked about and the 92% elective surgery

:33:50.:33:53.

we have talked about. The trust we represent are very clear, they would

:33:54.:33:57.

want to realise those standards, but you can only do it if you pay for

:33:58.:34:01.

it. The problem is at the moment is we are in the longest and deepest

:34:02.:34:06.

financial squeeze in NHS history. As we have said, funding is only going

:34:07.:34:09.

up by 1% per year but every year just to stand still cost and demand

:34:10.:34:15.

go up by more than 4%. There is clearly a demand for more money. I

:34:16.:34:20.

think people watching this programme will think probably the NHS is going

:34:21.:34:23.

to have to get more money to meet the goals you have been given. I

:34:24.:34:27.

think they would also like to be sure that your Mac running the NHS

:34:28.:34:32.

as efficiently as it could be. We read this morning that trusts have

:34:33.:34:36.

got ?100 million of empty properties that cost 10 million to maintain, 36

:34:37.:34:41.

office blocks are not being used, you have surplus land equivalent to

:34:42.:34:44.

office blocks are not being used, 1800 football pitches. Yes, there

:34:45.:34:48.

are a number of things that we know in the NHS we need to do better but

:34:49.:34:53.

let me remind you, Andrew, in the last Parliament we realised ?18

:34:54.:34:57.

billion worth of cost improvement gains. We are going to realise

:34:58.:35:02.

another 3 billion this year, 0.25 billion more than last year so these

:35:03.:35:08.

things are being targeted. But having that surplus land, it is

:35:09.:35:11.

almost certainly in areas where there is a demand for housing.

:35:12.:35:17.

Absolutely. So why not release it for housing? You get the money, the

:35:18.:35:21.

people get their houses and its contribution and a signal that you

:35:22.:35:24.

are running NHS assets as efficiently as you can? Tell me if

:35:25.:35:29.

I'm going to too much detail for you. One of the reasons as to why

:35:30.:35:34.

our trusts are reluctant to realise those land sales is because there is

:35:35.:35:37.

an assumption that the money would go back to the Treasury and wouldn't

:35:38.:35:42.

benefit NHS trusts. You could make a deal, couldn't you? That's part of

:35:43.:35:45.

the conversation going on at the moment. The issue is that we would

:35:46.:35:49.

want to ensure that if we do release land, quite rightly the benefit,

:35:50.:35:53.

particularly in foundation trusts which are, as you will remember,

:35:54.:36:04.

deliberately autonomous organisations, that they should keep

:36:05.:36:07.

the benefit of those land sales. Have you raised that with the

:36:08.:36:08.

Yes we have. What did they say? They are in discussions of it. We heard

:36:09.:36:20.

somebody who moved from one job and then to another job and given a

:36:21.:36:22.

somebody who moved from one job and salary and then almost ?200,000 as a

:36:23.:36:27.

payoff. There is a national mood for the NHS to get more money. But

:36:28.:36:31.

before you give anybody any more money you want to be sure that the

:36:32.:36:34.

money you have got already is being properly spent, which for us, is the

:36:35.:36:38.

patient at the end of the day. And yet there seem to be these enormous

:36:39.:36:43.

salaries and payoffs. I've worked in a FTSE 100 on the board of Her

:36:44.:36:50.

Majesty's Revenue and Customs and I have worked in large organisations.

:36:51.:36:52.

I can look you completely straight in the eye and tell you that the

:36:53.:36:56.

jobs that our hospital, community, mental health and ambulance chief

:36:57.:36:59.

Executives do are amongst the most complicated leadership roles I have

:37:00.:37:03.

ever seen. It doesn't seem to me to be unreasonable that in order to get

:37:04.:37:06.

the right quality of people we should pay an appropriate salary.

:37:07.:37:10.

The reality is the salaries are paid are not excessive when talking about

:37:11.:37:15.

managing budgets of over ?1 billion a year and talking about managing

:37:16.:37:18.

tens of thousands of staff. There was a doctor working as a locum that

:37:19.:37:26.

earned an extra ?375,000. One of the problems in the NHS is a mismatch

:37:27.:37:30.

between the number of staff we need and the number of staff coming

:37:31.:37:33.

through the pipeline. What is having to happen is if you want to keep a

:37:34.:37:38.

service going you have to use Mackem and agency staff. Even at that cost?

:37:39.:37:41.

You would not want to pay those amounts. But you are. The chief

:37:42.:37:48.

Executives's choice in those areas is giving the service open or

:37:49.:37:51.

employing a locum. I'm sure you could find a locum prepared to work

:37:52.:37:56.

for less than that. What indication, what hopes do you have of getting

:37:57.:38:02.

the extra ?3 billion? The government has been very clear, for the moment

:38:03.:38:07.

it wants to stick to the existing funding settlement it has agreed. So

:38:08.:38:12.

there was nothing in the budget. Can I finish by making one important

:38:13.:38:16.

point. Please, finish. This is the first time the NHS has said before

:38:17.:38:20.

the year has even started that we can't deliver on those standards. We

:38:21.:38:26.

believe, as do most people who work in the NHS, that the NHS is on a

:38:27.:38:30.

gradual slow decline. This is a very important inflection point to Mark,

:38:31.:38:34.

this is the first time before the financial year starts that we say we

:38:35.:38:37.

cannot meet the targets we are being asked to deliver and are in the NHS

:38:38.:38:42.

Constitution. We have run out of time. Chris Hopson, thank you for

:38:43.:38:43.

being with me. It's just gone 11:35am,

:38:44.:38:44.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:38:45.:38:47.

in Scotland who leave us now Good morning and welcome

:38:48.:38:52.

to Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up on the programme -

:38:53.:38:54.

the battle of the wills. Nicola Sturgeon insists

:38:55.:38:58.

there will be a second referendum but with Theresa May insisting

:38:59.:39:01.

there will not be one now - Our country stands at a crossroads,

:39:02.:39:15.

the future of the UK looks very different today than it did two

:39:16.:39:16.

years ago. And on Wednesday the Scottish

:39:17.:39:20.

Parliament votes on Indyref2 - I'll be speaking to the Tories

:39:21.:39:22.

who plan to vote no and the Greens, without whose support

:39:23.:39:25.

the Scottish Government cannot win. If you're watching this

:39:26.:39:28.

programme in England, Wales or Northern Ireland and feel

:39:29.:39:30.

a bit peeved with Brexit and rather fancy living

:39:31.:39:33.

in an independent Scotland - Because yesterday, at her

:39:34.:39:35.

party's spring conference, the First Minister invited

:39:36.:39:37.

all Britons to settle in the "progressive outward looking

:39:38.:39:39.

country" that the SNP believes The only fly in this utopian

:39:40.:39:42.

ointment is the need to win a referendum first -

:39:43.:39:49.

and in order to win a referendum, Shortly I'll be speaking

:39:50.:39:52.

to the Scottish Government's Cabinet Secretary for External Affairs -

:39:53.:39:56.

Fiona Hyslop. But first, Graham Stewart's been

:39:57.:39:59.

assessing the mood among delegates, These kind of referendums are once

:40:00.:40:29.

in a generation events. No means we stay in, we are members of the

:40:30.:40:35.

European Union. We can't keep spending money you haven't actually

:40:36.:40:42.

got. The dream shall never die. Ecclesial all added misty eyed,

:40:43.:40:47.

doesn't it? If only someone could help us relive that festival of

:40:48.:40:52.

democracy. I can confirm today that Nick Clegg I will seek the authority

:40:53.:40:54.

of the Scottish Parliament to agree with the UK Government the details

:40:55.:41:00.

of a Section 35 Order. The procedure that will enable the Scottish

:41:01.:41:02.

Parliament to legislate for an independence referendum. Nicola

:41:03.:41:07.

Sturgeon's announcement set Tomic the UK Government off-guard. While

:41:08.:41:12.

it took them a few days to formulate a response, when the answer came, it

:41:13.:41:17.

was repeated over and over again. Now is not the time. Now is not the

:41:18.:41:23.

time. Now is not the time. When is the right time? Now is not the time.

:41:24.:41:30.

Is not now, when? That's the question that has been exercising

:41:31.:41:34.

delegates at the SNP conference this weekend. But wondering which side

:41:35.:41:40.

benefits from I think it benefits the SNP and I think the SNP will

:41:41.:41:43.

have factored this in. They are willing to go all the way up to

:41:44.:41:49.

2020, 2021, which I think pre-Brexit was the original planning. They will

:41:50.:41:52.

have anticipated the Prime Minister in the UK Government saying not

:41:53.:41:56.

until after the exit. And they will be comfortable with something later

:41:57.:42:00.

on. Not, however, with anything after May 2021, which is where I

:42:01.:42:09.

think it becomes harder for the SNP. If Brexit is chaotic and nasty and

:42:10.:42:12.

extraordinarily exhausting, as we expected to be, because after all,

:42:13.:42:16.

every aspect of European law has to be unpicked may be integrated and

:42:17.:42:20.

then removed, if all of that begins to hit people the most incredible

:42:21.:42:25.

double they have ever experienced, then the longer it goes on, the

:42:26.:42:28.

better it works for Scottish independence. -- guddle. When I

:42:29.:42:39.

heard the announcement, I had shivers down my spine and went back

:42:40.:42:41.

home and trying to find my posters and badges and I just want to get

:42:42.:42:46.

going and change those people that said no before. The Scottish people

:42:47.:42:52.

have certainly demanded it, by returning 57 out of 59 MPs, I think

:42:53.:42:54.

that is another proof that the second referendum is required. I

:42:55.:42:59.

wasn't actively involved in persuading other people last time,

:43:00.:43:01.

other than through social media but I think I'm actually tread the

:43:02.:43:10.

boards and knock on doors. Having to persuade former Yes voters who had

:43:11.:43:15.

switched sides because of Europe gobsmacked I don't want Scotland to

:43:16.:43:19.

come out of one United Kingdom of 60 million and then go into another one

:43:20.:43:23.

of 400 million, where people have even less voice, so, no thank you.

:43:24.:43:26.

One third of SNP supporters basically think the same as me. What

:43:27.:43:31.

kind of reaction have you had since you announced publicly you were

:43:32.:43:38.

moving from yes to no? People Act as though I have betrayed the faith, I

:43:39.:43:41.

have been called a traitor, I've been told to get out, I have been

:43:42.:43:48.

told I am a liar, the ultimate insult is chilly unionist. Other

:43:49.:43:55.

voters are switched from no to yes because of the exit. My reasons are

:43:56.:43:58.

twofold, I believe there is an economic case for Scotland to remain

:43:59.:44:02.

in the single market, we cannot do that if we leave. The other is a

:44:03.:44:07.

moral case, I think that liberal democracy in Europe is under threat

:44:08.:44:12.

moral case, I think that liberal and to say no two that sort of

:44:13.:44:16.

thinking is important for Scotland. But for Nicola Sturgeon that is the

:44:17.:44:20.

small matter of agreeing a date first. If only it was as easy as

:44:21.:44:22.

days gone by... # Can it be that it

:44:23.:44:34.

was so simple then? Joining me now from Linlithgow

:44:35.:44:53.

is the Cabinet Secretary Fiona Hyslop, on the assumption that

:44:54.:45:13.

the Scottish Parliament votes for another referendum and Theresa May

:45:14.:45:20.

says she will not put a Section 35 Order before Parliament, what

:45:21.:45:26.

happens next? Well, welcome to Linlithgow, it is the case that we

:45:27.:45:33.

have to get through the process, we not calling for a referendum now. It

:45:34.:45:38.

will be an opportunity to learn more behind Brexit opportunity is going

:45:39.:45:42.

to be so this week is important because this is a vote for the

:45:43.:45:46.

Scottish Parliament, the elected Scottish Parliament, in terms of the

:45:47.:45:51.

process of securing the discussions around Section 30... Sure, but one

:45:52.:45:58.

the reason may refuses and says, I am not ruling out a referendum, wait

:45:59.:46:01.

until Brexit has taken effect and see what effect it has only Scottish

:46:02.:46:05.

economy, by all means come and see me and we will have a discussion,

:46:06.:46:09.

what do you say? Well, there are two sides to that. The first part of it

:46:10.:46:13.

is about Section 30 trans-Pennine the powers to have the timetable and

:46:14.:46:23.

DP legislation to have a referendum. But of course, Theresa May has not

:46:24.:46:25.

said they would not be a referendum at all. She thinks it should not

:46:26.:46:32.

happen now. We do not want now and what we wanted at the time when we

:46:33.:46:35.

have more information. So, that first part, that process to make

:46:36.:46:39.

sure powers transferred, Theresa May could agree to that as of now and

:46:40.:46:44.

the discussions about the timetable, and the First Minister has said she

:46:45.:46:48.

is willing to have discussions with Theresa May, those could take place.

:46:49.:46:52.

The second part is making sure we have information about what the deal

:46:53.:46:57.

might mean. One aspect of that is, can we have the referendum at a time

:46:58.:47:03.

when we know what the relationships might be with customs union, that is

:47:04.:47:06.

a huge economic consequence to Scotland, we don't even know within

:47:07.:47:11.

days of the Article 50 being triggered, or the customs union

:47:12.:47:14.

position might be for the UK Government. If we wait too long,

:47:15.:47:18.

that would see Scotland suffer and the idea of 5% of the GDP reduction

:47:19.:47:22.

for the Scottish economy because we're out of the single market would

:47:23.:47:26.

have consequences, so waiting too long may leave it too late for the

:47:27.:47:30.

Scottish economy and the Scottish people.

:47:31.:47:41.

Sorry, what is too long? If the British Government or indeed the

:47:42.:47:45.

Scottish Conservatives say, look, whatever the dealers, wait for a few

:47:46.:47:47.

years until we see evolving are consequences for Scotland you

:47:48.:47:49.

forecast actually happen. In terms of the substance of the issue,

:47:50.:47:52.

rather on the process, what is the argument against that? Even if you

:47:53.:47:54.

are correct, you have accepted that Scotland will have to reapply for

:47:55.:47:56.

membership of the EU anyway, so what is a matter whether it happens in

:47:57.:48:02.

2018, 2019, 2020, or 2023 for that matter? It doesn't really matter,

:48:03.:48:07.

does it? Well, we have a choice and we need clarity. We need to know

:48:08.:48:13.

what type of deal the UK wants. Remember Michel Barnier and David

:48:14.:48:17.

Davis this week echoing Act, determined that the deal would need

:48:18.:48:23.

to be known and the circumstances and arrangements by autumn 2018 to

:48:24.:48:26.

have application across Europe or the other countries. Wouldn't it be

:48:27.:48:31.

ironic if every other country across the EU could decide whether this was

:48:32.:48:36.

a good enough deal but the people of Scotland could not? Particularly

:48:37.:48:41.

when 62% had voted to remain. But you're talking about processes, I am

:48:42.:48:44.

talking about substance. The point I am making is that if it is accepted

:48:45.:48:47.

that Scotland will have to reapply to join the European Union, should

:48:48.:48:51.

that be your policy in a referendum campaign? What doesn't matter if it

:48:52.:49:00.

is 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, if you want to have another referendum, on

:49:01.:49:03.

the substance of the issue, it is that you want to join the EU, it

:49:04.:49:11.

doesn't have to be in 20182019. In terms of the substance, coming out

:49:12.:49:14.

of the single market will have huge economic consequences. We will know

:49:15.:49:20.

by automating, and if we do not know I would be very concerned about UK

:49:21.:49:25.

Government position, what the arrangements might be, we want to be

:49:26.:49:30.

part of the EU, that is our policy. The circumstances that we would find

:49:31.:49:33.

ourselves in at the point at which the UK leads, would be far far

:49:34.:49:40.

clearer in 18 months' time, when the deal is European Union. But you have

:49:41.:49:44.

not yet answered the point about substance. The Conservatives and the

:49:45.:49:48.

British Government will say that we do not believe the consequences of

:49:49.:49:52.

coming out of the EU will be as dire as your forecasting. By did we not

:49:53.:49:56.

wait and see what the consequences actually argument if you're correct,

:49:57.:49:59.

by all means have a referendum and you will probably win but at least

:50:00.:50:04.

give it a chance to see what happens. Is that not just common

:50:05.:50:12.

sense? Well, I think a wish and a pair, relying on a hard Tory

:50:13.:50:15.

right-wing Government, is not what we can accept. If they want to slash

:50:16.:50:21.

taxes, regulation and workers' rights, the disincentive to

:50:22.:50:24.

investment, there are discussions happening all over Europe about

:50:25.:50:28.

financial companies moving to Luxembourg or to Dublin. I think

:50:29.:50:32.

this is a very real issue. The substance cannot wait for years to

:50:33.:50:37.

find out if perhaps the UK Government will...

:50:38.:50:42.

It can wait for a couple of years can't it? Many members of the public

:50:43.:50:51.

will say, we don't know what this argument is about, let's wait and

:50:52.:50:55.

see what happens after Brexit and if you are right, we'll support you in

:50:56.:50:58.

another referendum but we don't want to have one that soon. You don't

:50:59.:51:02.

seem to have any arguments are doing that either. Only today, we've got

:51:03.:51:08.

some fantastic results for the growth of the exports of the

:51:09.:51:14.

Scottish sector. ?156 million increase in the food exports. 153 on

:51:15.:51:21.

food and drink to Europe. If we don't know what the standards of the

:51:22.:51:25.

exports of our food companies exporting into the EU are by the

:51:26.:51:31.

time we leave it in 2019, that puts our food exports at a disadvantage.

:51:32.:51:36.

There are jobs dependent on our food industry and a successful industry,

:51:37.:51:39.

we want that to continue, which is why we have to have the clarity

:51:40.:51:41.

we want that to continue, which is about whether the UK Government will

:51:42.:51:45.

still have any arrangement to allow access to the single market or

:51:46.:51:48.

preferably membership of the single market. We've set out compromise

:51:49.:51:54.

proposals and we are taking the substance of the Scottish economy

:51:55.:51:57.

very seriously which is why the timetable set out by the First

:51:58.:51:58.

Minister is very sensible. timetable set out by the First

:51:59.:52:07.

running out of time. Can we be clear, if you at some point have

:52:08.:52:10.

another referendum campaign, the SNP's policy will be for Scotland to

:52:11.:52:18.

rejoin the European Union as a full member? Yes, our policy is... And to

:52:19.:52:26.

rejoin the common fisheries policy? In terms of our negotiations, we

:52:27.:52:30.

want to be in the best possible position and that is why we need to

:52:31.:52:33.

have the referendum before the UK leaves. We have to leave it there.

:52:34.:52:37.

We will leave you to your loch, not With me now are the Scottish Deputy

:52:38.:52:43.

Leader of the party that's said No to another independence referendum

:52:44.:52:46.

now and the co-convenor of the party without whom the SNP will lose

:52:47.:52:49.

Tuesday's vote in Holyrood. What... Will you vote for another

:52:50.:53:03.

referendum? We decided as long ago as October to call for an order.

:53:04.:53:13.

What is your mandate? As a political party? Our mandate for policy comes

:53:14.:53:22.

from our members. You stood last year and in your manifesto, the

:53:23.:53:25.

entire basis for the SNP saying they have a mandate for another

:53:26.:53:28.

referendum, you said nothing about having another referendum. We didn't

:53:29.:53:35.

anticipate there would be... Like most people... Let me read it to

:53:36.:53:40.

you, you said if there is another referendum, it should come about by

:53:41.:53:42.

the will of the people and referendum, it should come about by

:53:43.:53:46.

driven by calculations of party political advantage. Where is the

:53:47.:53:50.

will of the people for another referendum? We suggested a citizens

:53:51.:53:58.

initiative. Where is it? It was intended to be a way in which we

:53:59.:54:04.

could judge the appetites... Can I answer the question. What we

:54:05.:54:15.

suggested was a way of... "It should come about by the will of the

:54:16.:54:21.

people." We never suggested the Scottish Parliament should be

:54:22.:54:24.

stripped of its ability to make a decision. One way of judging public

:54:25.:54:31.

appetite... The reality has changed. In June last year, the world changed

:54:32.:54:38.

around us. I know that, the entire basis of the SNP's case for another

:54:39.:54:42.

referendum is that they have what they call a cast iron mandate

:54:43.:54:46.

because of what they said in the manifesto they put to the people of

:54:47.:54:50.

Scotland only last year. Your manifesto doesn't give you any

:54:51.:54:54.

mandate to vote at the moment for another referendum. Arguably, if you

:54:55.:54:59.

vote, you are in breach of your manifesto. I do not think that.

:55:00.:55:04.

Where is the will of the people? We're not in breach of the

:55:05.:55:07.

possession our party members decided. You no mandate from the

:55:08.:55:14.

people who voted last year which is the reason you are in Parliament in

:55:15.:55:24.

the first place. This is not just about the Greens. The entire basis

:55:25.:55:28.

of the Scottish Government saying it has a mandate is because of the cast

:55:29.:55:33.

iron mandate it has, they can only win this vote this week with your

:55:34.:55:38.

support and you are arguably in breach of your manifesto and

:55:39.:55:41.

certainly, there is no mandate in your manifesto so from precisely the

:55:42.:55:46.

reasons the Scottish Government say this is legitimate, you are going to

:55:47.:55:50.

make it illegitimate. When you have an election, the winning party has a

:55:51.:55:53.

responsibility to implement its manifesto. A party in opposition

:55:54.:56:00.

needs to look at its policy and in June last year, the world changed

:56:01.:56:04.

around us and our party debated how to respond to that and our members

:56:05.:56:09.

voted in favour of a motion. You got the press release just like everyone

:56:10.:56:18.

else. You ought to either may be not to vote against it this week but the

:56:19.:56:24.

very least, you ought to abstain. Given the way the parliamentary

:56:25.:56:28.

arithmetic works, abstaining would be functionally equivalent, the SNP

:56:29.:56:33.

will gain a majority in the Scottish Parliament on any issue if anyone

:56:34.:56:37.

opposition party abstained so are abstaining basically says we are in

:56:38.:56:44.

favour of... Do you think... It's not just about the Greens, the

:56:45.:56:48.

entire argument of the SNP is that they have a cast iron mandate but

:56:49.:56:51.

entire argument of the SNP is that they don't. Not if they are relying

:56:52.:56:55.

on the support of a party which doesn't have any mandate. I think

:56:56.:57:00.

Patrick is dancing on the head of a pin. The referendum was eventually

:57:01.:57:06.

supported by 92% of the people and... To have a referendum. A super

:57:07.:57:12.

majority of every single MSP in the Parliament voting for it. That

:57:13.:57:15.

consent does not exist at this point. We are told this morning only

:57:16.:57:22.

32% support it. Do you think relying on the Greens affects its

:57:23.:57:28.

legitimacy? I do. In any event, I don't think the Scottish Government

:57:29.:57:31.

has ignored these resolutions of the Scottish Parliament over the last

:57:32.:57:35.

six weeks, health and education, the funding Council, the police. Nicola

:57:36.:57:45.

Sturgeon has three times ignored the Scottish Parliament. What exactly

:57:46.:57:51.

are the Conservatives saying? If you are saying, let's do the Brexit

:57:52.:57:53.

negotiations and see what happens and then have a referendum after

:57:54.:57:58.

that, I think some people will understand that. There seem to be

:57:59.:58:02.

some attempts by Conservatives like Ruth Davidson to say, we mean, they

:58:03.:58:06.

would have to be a period of several years until we see how Brexit runs

:58:07.:58:11.

out and that is not reasonable. The Prime Minister has said it is. We

:58:12.:58:16.

have to leave the European Union and we then have to see how Scotland are

:58:17.:58:18.

settling down in the new arrangement. They can then be a

:58:19.:58:23.

referendum at the point there is clear public support for one and

:58:24.:58:27.

that is the crucial point. There is none at the moment. Many people

:58:28.:58:32.

watching this will say, we can see the logic saying let's do the Brexit

:58:33.:58:36.

deal first but now they are changing the rules and saying there has to be

:58:37.:58:42.

a majority in the opinion polls and we have to have several years after

:58:43.:58:46.

Brexit. What you are doing is trying to put this off until the 2020

:58:47.:58:50.

Scottish election. I'm saying what Nicola Sturgeon said would that be

:58:51.:58:57.

it would be wrong to ask for the Scottish people to vote in another

:58:58.:59:01.

referendum until there is evidence they had changed their minds and

:59:02.:59:06.

that is in there. What do you think of that? This idea of putting it off

:59:07.:59:10.

until some years after Brexit has happened is essentially saying we

:59:11.:59:16.

will drag you off a cliff and let's wait and see what happens. The

:59:17.:59:22.

consequences of leaving the European Union are so profoundly damaging

:59:23.:59:26.

economically, politically, socially, environmentally, that this... I

:59:27.:59:30.

wanted to get you on the democracy of this because some people will

:59:31.:59:34.

say, it's reasonable to wait until after Brexit. But some people will

:59:35.:59:39.

say, if the Scottish Parliament is then denied after that for a period

:59:40.:59:43.

of years, this looks like the Conservatives are just manoeuvring

:59:44.:59:47.

so there will be another Scottish election, the SNP might lose the

:59:48.:59:51.

majority they have with you and they might lose that. So this is just

:59:52.:59:57.

party political manoeuvring. That manoeuvring is clearly part of their

:59:58.:00:00.

party political manoeuvring. That calculation. The Democratic argument

:00:01.:00:02.

is clear, what's going to happen for the next couple of years. This

:00:03.:00:06.

period of uncertainty is the result of the Brexit shambles going on. The

:00:07.:00:11.

first 18 months of it, we will see a government that we did not choose

:00:12.:00:15.

negotiating with EU institutions on which we will no longer be

:00:16.:00:20.

represented. For a Brexit path Scotland did not vote for. After

:00:21.:00:24.

that, six months in which every other EU member state gets a chance

:00:25.:00:29.

to ratify it. In this process, critically important to this

:00:30.:00:32.

country, Scottish voters are the only people in the whole of Europe

:00:33.:00:35.

who will not have a voice and that is unacceptable. Will you work for a

:00:36.:00:41.

better argument for your mandate between now and Wednesday, it will

:00:42.:00:47.

have to be more convincing? My party mix of policy democratically on the

:00:48.:00:50.

conference floor and our members vote for it. We took a motion and...

:00:51.:00:57.

On the contents of Brexit because Brexit changed the world. When this

:00:58.:01:03.

row develops, will you say, isn't it reasonable to say, from your point

:01:04.:01:08.

of view, not before Brexit, but after Brexit, yes, we recognise the

:01:09.:01:12.

Scottish Parliament has legitimacy? If the people of Scotland want

:01:13.:01:18.

another referendum... That's what the First Minister and others said,

:01:19.:01:22.

they had to be clear, public expression of support for another

:01:23.:01:26.

referendum and it's not there. Why does everyone else in Europe gets to

:01:27.:01:30.

choose the country's future except the people of Scotland? I know you

:01:31.:01:33.

want to carry on but we cannot. Sitting patiently in Edinburgh

:01:34.:01:37.

through the programme so far is constitutional expert

:01:38.:01:40.

Professor Michael Keating - Just on this question of the

:01:41.:01:51.

European Union, are we now accepting that Scotland will one way or

:01:52.:01:55.

another, as to says, leave the European Union or is they ate

:01:56.:02:01.

possibility if there was a referendum towards the end of the

:02:02.:02:04.

Brexit process, Scotland could somehow stay in? If there was a

:02:05.:02:10.

referendum before Brexit occurred, it would be possible to try to get a

:02:11.:02:14.

bridging arrangement and eventually get into the European Union. The

:02:15.:02:19.

danger of having a referendum after we've left, we will be out of the

:02:20.:02:23.

European Union, into whatever arrangement the UK negotiated and it

:02:24.:02:27.

would be difficult to pick. One halfway has suggested, is Scotland

:02:28.:02:32.

could become independent going into the European economic area, which

:02:33.:02:35.

would keep it in the single market, along with Norway, maybe it would

:02:36.:02:42.

then be able to go for EU membership that would take time. There is an

:02:43.:02:47.

argument from your point of view, if people are in favour of

:02:48.:02:50.

independence, there is an argument for having a referendum before the

:02:51.:02:53.

Brexit process is finished and then saying, let's have some transitional

:02:54.:02:59.

deal for Scotland? That would be possible, that is technically

:03:00.:03:03.

possible. Independence itself would be complicated and take some time.

:03:04.:03:07.

We will have the difficult negotiations anyway. This European

:03:08.:03:13.

economic area alternative is being talked about a lot more recently. As

:03:14.:03:19.

a transition thing, not as an alternative? Some people might see

:03:20.:03:24.

it as a permanent arrangement. The downside is that you have to accept

:03:25.:03:28.

all of the policies but you don't get any say. The advantages, we

:03:29.:03:32.

would keep the single market, we wouldn't be in the agricultural and

:03:33.:03:36.

fisheries policies and we could negotiate a free arrangement with

:03:37.:03:45.

the United Kingdom. I'm interested in your take on this week's

:03:46.:03:52.

stand-off. One assumes Theresa May, I may be wrong, but for the sake of

:03:53.:03:58.

the argument, that she won't have a section 30 odd and if in a few

:03:59.:04:02.

years' time, we want another referendum after Brexit, let's talk

:04:03.:04:08.

about it. What happens, anything the Scottish Government can do? They

:04:09.:04:13.

could try to stage a unilateral referendum, try to find a form of

:04:14.:04:18.

words that would get around the courts. There was a few years ago

:04:19.:04:23.

talk about a question of whether the Scottish Government should seek new

:04:24.:04:26.

powers to negotiate Scottish independence. If that got through,

:04:27.:04:29.

the problem would be political because they referendum is only

:04:30.:04:33.

convincing if both sides participate. This has been the case

:04:34.:04:37.

in Quebec in the past, the federal government did not recognise the

:04:38.:04:43.

referendum but never the less, they participated.

:04:44.:04:50.

Just to clarify the law, the power to hold a referendum or not is

:04:51.:04:56.

reserved to Westminster? That's quite clear, the Scottish Government

:04:57.:04:59.

has agreed that in its consultation paper on the referendum. Whether

:05:00.:05:04.

some other form of words could be found to make it legal, I do not

:05:05.:05:07.

know. It has been tried in Catalonia a couple of years ago and didn't

:05:08.:05:09.

really get anywhere. The question a couple of years ago and didn't

:05:10.:05:14.

was so unclear legal position was unclear and the did not turn out and

:05:15.:05:21.

did not really resolve anything. I Act on that cheerful note of

:05:22.:05:23.

positivity, Michael Keating, we will have to leave it there.

:05:24.:05:25.

Now it's time to take a look back and at events coming

:05:26.:05:28.

Joining me this week are the Sunday times Scotland columnist

:05:29.:05:33.

and the SNP's former head of communications -

:05:34.:05:36.

Kevin Pringle and Herald columnist and former advisor

:05:37.:05:37.

to Alistair Darling - Catherine MacLeod.

:05:38.:05:45.

The obvious first question is, are you going to get involved in another

:05:46.:05:56.

campaign if one happens? I think what will happen. I think people

:05:57.:05:59.

across Scotland would love to be involved in such a campaign on both

:06:00.:06:03.

sides. It is a question of when, rather than if. That seems clear,

:06:04.:06:07.

even from what Theresa May said last week. The difficulty she got into

:06:08.:06:12.

was that it looks very much like blocking the referendum, in terms of

:06:13.:06:18.

blocking... Your carefully avoiding my question. Do you want to get

:06:19.:06:24.

involved? Of course. But we are in the very early stages and we are in

:06:25.:06:27.

a battle of hearts and minds over who will win the banner for

:06:28.:06:34.

reasonableness. Which side sounds more reasonable? It looks

:06:35.:06:40.

unreasonable, I think, in terms of the timescale the First Minister set

:06:41.:06:46.

out, to knock back the request. It was accepted last year by

:06:47.:06:52.

conservatives in Scotland that it would be wrong for the UK Government

:06:53.:06:58.

to block a referendum. She's not here to defend herself but with

:06:59.:07:01.

Davidson would say I am not standing against a referendum but I do not

:07:02.:07:04.

agree that there should be one in the near future. I think that the

:07:05.:07:10.

campaign is for who can win the contest for reasonableness. That is

:07:11.:07:13.

what we'll see when you next few days and weeks. I was a very

:07:14.:07:17.

convoluted answer to the question, are you going to get back involved?

:07:18.:07:22.

Do you have a shorter answer? Well, if there is a campaign, and I am not

:07:23.:07:26.

convinced there will be, but I would get involved. I am surprised that

:07:27.:07:31.

Kevin said that as an appetite for another campaign. He mixes in

:07:32.:07:38.

different circles from me. He said it was a battle for hearts and

:07:39.:07:45.

minds. He said there were a lot of people on both sides looking forward

:07:46.:07:49.

to the campaign. But that is not in my experience. A lot of people feel

:07:50.:08:01.

referendumed out. They would be dismayed at the prospect of another

:08:02.:08:08.

referendum campaign. If you want to hear what Alistair Darling thinks,

:08:09.:08:10.

you would have to ask him. But what I do think is that there are dozens

:08:11.:08:21.

of meetings going on in London between officials in Scotland and

:08:22.:08:27.

officials in the UK Government and I think the less that we do to

:08:28.:08:32.

undermine the UK's position in the negotiations with Brussels, the

:08:33.:08:37.

better. Everybody, both sides of the border, want to have a tether free

:08:38.:08:41.

trade agreement, to protect workers' rights, to look after EU citizens

:08:42.:08:48.

and British citizens abroad. We should focus on that, not on whether

:08:49.:08:52.

or not we want to break up the UK. Playing the politics of this will be

:08:53.:08:56.

interesting, Kevin. There is this odd thing is that where everyone

:08:57.:08:59.

knows about the SNP will say our timetable is reasonable, actually

:09:00.:09:04.

they will look for any excuse for a referendum. And everyone knows that

:09:05.:09:09.

everyone who is against the referendum would like to never have

:09:10.:09:12.

a referendum again. It will be politically how you cut through

:09:13.:09:18.

that. Yes, I think opinion is quite balanced on this question. Even

:09:19.:09:22.

looking at the Sunday Times poll, the idea of having a referendum by

:09:23.:09:26.

the time of the Brexit negotiations being over, which is actually

:09:27.:09:29.

October, 2018, according to the European Commissioner's chief

:09:30.:09:34.

negotiator, Michel Barnier, that actually reflect the First

:09:35.:09:36.

Minister's timetable for a referendum. It is quite balanced.

:09:37.:09:45.

Probably about 50-50. 52% was suggested by one hole. What about

:09:46.:09:55.

the idea from Jackson Carlaw that the Conservatives are raising, that

:09:56.:10:00.

there should be a bedding in period, it is not just about voting to leave

:10:01.:10:05.

and that is it. Let's wait and see if the dire things the Nicola

:10:06.:10:08.

Sturgeon says would arise from that actually do arise or not. Because

:10:09.:10:13.

they can't point the way the economy has performed since friends and say,

:10:14.:10:17.

look, all these forecasts of gloom and doom turned out to be wrong so

:10:18.:10:23.

far, maybe they will happen, but let's wait to see. But I don't think

:10:24.:10:28.

it can be open-ended. There was a famous anecdote where someone was

:10:29.:10:35.

asked about the impact of something in the 1970s and he said it was too

:10:36.:10:40.

early to tell. I think the point of judgment surely would be around

:10:41.:10:42.

about the autumn of 2018, when we know that parameters and detail of

:10:43.:10:48.

Brexit negotiations. And also, as a matter of democracy, given a mandate

:10:49.:10:53.

that was secured in the election last year obviously applies to its

:10:54.:10:56.

Holyrood parliament, I think is a matter of democracy, the question

:10:57.:11:03.

needs to be passed before the end of this Parliament... The Greens

:11:04.:11:08.

arguably do not have a mandate. As Patrick said, even if the Greens

:11:09.:11:13.

abstained, the SNP majority carries anyway. There will be a Scottish

:11:14.:11:16.

Parliament vote on Wednesday and will formally call for a referendum

:11:17.:11:22.

within the timescale of autumn 2018, Spring 2019 but I detected from the

:11:23.:11:25.

First Minister's Speech yesterday that she is prepared to negotiate

:11:26.:11:33.

about that. What do you make of this, Catherine? I think Nicola's

:11:34.:11:36.

position is understandable, she can enter politics to the UK and that is

:11:37.:11:41.

what she wants do. What Patrick was saying, I do not understand at all.

:11:42.:11:48.

Here is a party, a Green Party, who, the environment should be their

:11:49.:11:49.

raison d' tre for being in politics, raison d'etre for being in politics,

:11:50.:11:54.

they have got a position, Scotland has a position, the UK has a

:11:55.:11:57.

position to negotiate the best for the environment in Scotland and yet

:11:58.:12:00.

they seem to be undermining and ready to undermine the negotiations

:12:01.:12:03.

that are going on at the moment. The timescale? I don't know. I think

:12:04.:12:09.

2018 will be too early because people in Scotland will be being

:12:10.:12:21.

asked to vote for a pig in a poke... Will you be better to leave it for a

:12:22.:12:26.

few years after that? None of us know what we're voting for. People

:12:27.:12:30.

talk about hard Brexit, soft Brexit, these are meaningless. Theresa May,

:12:31.:12:37.

I am not here to defend her, but she will be wanting the best Brexit

:12:38.:12:41.

outcome for the UK. What people mean by hard or soft, I have no idea. In

:12:42.:12:49.

2018, if that is when they think we should ask, what will be the promise

:12:50.:12:53.

to the Scottish people and when the team? Before anybody has any more

:12:54.:12:56.

votes, I think that is what was wrong with the original... What

:12:57.:13:00.

about this conservative ideology of a few years to see if it actually

:13:01.:13:06.

works? I can see sense in that. It is better to know what people are

:13:07.:13:09.

voting for to give people a chance to have a sensible vote on their

:13:10.:13:12.

future rather than putting your finger in the wind. There will be

:13:13.:13:24.

another Scottish election in 2021, so the mandate runs out, so they

:13:25.:13:31.

would before then? Yes. The mandate was achieved for this Parliament and

:13:32.:13:34.

that is when it needs to happen. Thank you for joining us. I have a

:13:35.:13:38.

feeling this debate may continue. That's all for this week,

:13:39.:13:41.

I'm back at the same time next week.

:13:42.:13:45.

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer with the latest political news, interviews and debate.

As the NHS in England warns of a severe financial crisis, Andrew talks to Chris Hopson, head of NHS Providers. He is also joined by former Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg MP and Labour Party campaign and elections chair Andrew Gwynne MP.

On the political panel are the Sun's Tom Newton Dunn and journalists Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.