Browse content similar to 19/03/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics. | :00:34. | :00:36. | |
She faces huge political fights over Brexit, Scottish independence, | :00:37. | :00:40. | |
After a tumultuous political week, we'll analyse the PM's prospects. | :00:41. | :00:53. | |
With chatter increasing about a possible early General Election, | :00:54. | :00:55. | |
Jeremy Corbyn's campaign chief joins me live. | :00:56. | :01:00. | |
NHS bosses warn health services in England are facing "mission | :01:01. | :01:03. | |
impossible" and waiting times for operations will rocket, | :01:04. | :01:07. | |
unless hospitals are given more cash this year. | :01:08. | :01:10. | |
The chief executive of NHS Providers joins me live. | :01:11. | :01:16. | |
The stand-off continues - Theresa May says "Not now" | :01:17. | :01:19. | |
but Nicola Sturgeon insists the will of the Scottish Parliament | :01:20. | :01:22. | |
will prevail and there WILL be a second independence referendum - | :01:23. | :01:25. | |
All that to come before 12:15pm, and I'll also be talking | :01:26. | :01:36. | |
to the former leader of the Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg | :01:37. | :01:39. | |
from his party's spring conference in York. | :01:40. | :01:41. | |
With me here in the studio, throughout the programme, | :01:42. | :01:46. | |
three of the country's top political commentators: | :01:47. | :01:47. | |
Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards. | :01:48. | :01:53. | |
They'll be tweeting their thoughts using #bbcsp. | :01:54. | :01:55. | |
So, the political challenges facing Theresa May are stacking up. | :01:56. | :01:58. | |
As well as negotiating Britain's exit from the EU, | :01:59. | :02:04. | |
the PM must now deal with SNP demands for a second referendum | :02:05. | :02:07. | |
on Scottish independence, backbenchers agitating against cuts | :02:08. | :02:12. | |
to school budgets, and a humiliated Chancellor forced to u-turn on a key | :02:13. | :02:15. | |
budget measure just one week after announcing it. | :02:16. | :02:20. | |
Here's Adam Fleming on aturbulent political week | :02:21. | :02:21. | |
Monday, 11:30am, TV crews gather in the residence of the First | :02:22. | :02:38. | |
Minister of Scotland, who's got a surprise. | :02:39. | :02:40. | |
She wants a vote on whether Scotland should leave the UK | :02:41. | :02:43. | |
By taking the steps I have set out today I am ensuring that Scotland's | :02:44. | :02:47. | |
future will be decided, not just by me, the | :02:48. | :02:50. | |
Scottish Government, or the | :02:51. | :02:51. | |
SNP, it will be decided by the people of Scotland. | :02:52. | :02:53. | |
Westminster, 6:25pm the same day, MPs reject | :02:54. | :03:03. | |
amendments to the legislation authorising the Prime Minister to | :03:04. | :03:07. | |
The Bill ceremonially heads to the Lords where peers abandoned | :03:08. | :03:21. | |
attempts to change it and it becomes law. | :03:22. | :03:22. | |
But Downing Street doesn't trigger Article 50 as many had expected. | :03:23. | :03:29. | |
Some say they were spooked by Nicola Sturgeon. | :03:30. | :03:32. | |
We get an e-mail from the Treasury can the | :03:33. | :03:48. | |
We get an e-mail from the Treasury cancelling | :03:49. | :03:50. | |
the planned rise in National Insurance for | :03:51. | :04:01. | |
the self-employed announced the budget. | :04:02. | :04:03. | |
It's just minutes before Prime Minister's Questions at noon. | :04:04. | :04:05. | |
The trend towards greater self-employment does create a | :04:06. | :04:07. | |
We will bring forward further proposals | :04:08. | :04:09. | |
but we will not bring forward increases to NICs later in this | :04:10. | :04:12. | |
It seems to me like a government in a bit of chaos here. | :04:13. | :04:16. | |
By making this change today we are listening to our colleagues | :04:17. | :04:19. | |
fulfil both the letter and the spirit of our manifesto tax | :04:20. | :04:23. | |
Thursday, 7am, Conservative campaign HQ and the | :04:24. | :04:32. | |
Electoral Commission fines the party ?70,000 for misreporting spending | :04:33. | :04:35. | |
But that's not what the Prime Minister | :04:36. | :04:38. | |
Because at 12:19pm she gives her verdict on a | :04:39. | :04:44. | |
We should be working together, not pulling apart. | :04:45. | :04:49. | |
We should be working together to get that | :04:50. | :04:51. | |
right deal for Scotland, that | :04:52. | :04:52. | |
So, as I say, that's my job as Prime Minister and | :04:53. | :04:57. | |
so for that reason I say to the SNP now is not the time. | :04:58. | :05:00. | |
Friday and time for the faithful to gather. | :05:01. | :05:03. | |
SNP activists at their spring conference | :05:04. | :05:04. | |
Conservatives in Cardiff to hear the Prime Minister | :05:05. | :05:15. | |
promote her plan for a more meritocratic Brexit Britain. | :05:16. | :05:19. | |
At 11:10am comes some news about a newspaper that's frankly | :05:20. | :05:21. | |
I'm thrilled and excited to be the new editor of The | :05:22. | :05:28. | |
Evening Standard and, you know, with so many | :05:29. | :05:30. | |
big issues in our world what | :05:31. | :05:31. | |
good analysis, great news journalism. | :05:32. | :05:37. | |
It's a really important time for good journalism that The | :05:38. | :05:41. | |
Evening Standard is going to provide. | :05:42. | :05:43. | |
There was no let-up yesterday as Gordon Brown launched proposals | :05:44. | :05:50. | |
Under my proposals we keep the Barnett | :05:51. | :05:55. | |
Formula, we keep the fiscal transfers, but we also bring the | :05:56. | :05:59. | |
and fisheries back to the Scottish Parliament. | :06:00. | :06:03. | |
And just think, all this and we're still counting down to the | :06:04. | :06:06. | |
What a week in politics. It has been a torrid week for the government, | :06:07. | :06:24. | |
Isabel Oakeshott, but does Theresa May shake it off, or is this a sign | :06:25. | :06:28. | |
of worse to come? We may all be feeling a bit breathless after the | :06:29. | :06:31. | |
events of last week and we are in for a a long war of attrition with | :06:32. | :06:39. | |
the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon's strategy will be to foster over lengthy | :06:40. | :06:43. | |
periods of time as much resentment and anger as she can in Scotland and | :06:44. | :06:48. | |
try to create the impression that independence is somehow inevitable. | :06:49. | :06:53. | |
Is Scotland the biggest challenge for Theresa May in the next year or | :06:54. | :06:57. | |
so? I think it probably is because if you look at how relatively easily | :06:58. | :07:00. | |
the Brexit bill went through on an issue where people could hardly feel | :07:01. | :07:05. | |
more passionate in the Commons, and actually despite all the potential | :07:06. | :07:08. | |
drama it has gone through quite smoothly. To go back to your | :07:09. | :07:12. | |
original question, she just carries on. Don't underestimate the basic | :07:13. | :07:16. | |
quiet and will towards Theresa May amongst the majority of Tory | :07:17. | :07:21. | |
backbenchers. Yes, there are difficult little issues over school | :07:22. | :07:25. | |
funding, sorry, it's not a little issue, it is a big one but she will | :07:26. | :07:29. | |
get over that and treat each thing as it comes and keep pressing on. | :07:30. | :07:33. | |
Has she not called Nicola Sturgeon's Bluff in that the First Minister | :07:34. | :07:38. | |
said I want a referendum, here is roughly when I wanted, the Prime | :07:39. | :07:43. | |
Minister says you're not having one. What happens next? She has done | :07:44. | :07:47. | |
quite well and impact the progress Theresa May made this week in | :07:48. | :07:52. | |
frustrating Nicola Sturgeon was evident when Nicola Sturgeon said, | :07:53. | :07:55. | |
OK, maybe we can talk about the timing after. Nicola Sturgeon has | :07:56. | :07:59. | |
already been the first one to blink. I would slightly disagree with | :08:00. | :08:02. | |
Isabel Oakeshott, I don't agree Scotland will be the biggest hurdle | :08:03. | :08:06. | |
for her. What this week showed as is Theresa May... It was a reality | :08:07. | :08:11. | |
bites week. Theresa May is juggling four mammoth crises at the same | :08:12. | :08:15. | |
time, Brexit obviously which I still think will be the biggest challenge | :08:16. | :08:18. | |
to get a good deal, Trump left field who popped up at GCHQ on Friday and | :08:19. | :08:25. | |
Scotland and the fiscal challenge, this enormous great problem, and it | :08:26. | :08:30. | |
reinforced the point this is not an easy time in politics. The budget is | :08:31. | :08:36. | |
over four years. That was one small problem, the immediate problem is | :08:37. | :08:40. | |
how to fill the social care crisis and the ageing demographic. This is | :08:41. | :08:43. | |
not normal times in British politics and Theresa May does not have a | :08:44. | :08:46. | |
normal workload on her plate, hence why I think we will see more | :08:47. | :08:51. | |
mistakes made as time goes on and as she has this almost impossible | :08:52. | :08:56. | |
workload to juggle. How tempted do you think the Prime Minister is to | :08:57. | :08:59. | |
call an early election? There is more chatter about it now. Is she | :09:00. | :09:04. | |
tempted and if there is will she succumb? I will answer that in a | :09:05. | :09:07. | |
second as Harold Wilson used to say. I want to agree, disagree with the | :09:08. | :09:11. | |
rest of the panel about how she has out manipulated Nicola Sturgeon this | :09:12. | :09:15. | |
week. I think Nicola Sturgeon expected Theresa May to say no to | :09:16. | :09:19. | |
her expected timetable. It would be amazing if she had said yes. She | :09:20. | :09:24. | |
expected her to say no but Sturgeon catalyst that will fuel support for | :09:25. | :09:28. | |
her cause. There is no sign of that. The latest poll this morning shows | :09:29. | :09:34. | |
66-44 against independence and only 13% think they would be better off | :09:35. | :09:39. | |
with an independent Scotland and a clear majority do not want a second | :09:40. | :09:44. | |
referendum. But the calculation of resistance from Westminster combined | :09:45. | :09:47. | |
with Brexit which hasn't started yet, I think this is her | :09:48. | :09:50. | |
calculation, she didn't expect Theresa May to say, sure, go ahead, | :09:51. | :09:54. | |
I'm sure she expected Theresa May to say no, you can't have it at your | :09:55. | :09:59. | |
desired timetable. On the wider point, I think Theresa May is in a | :10:00. | :10:03. | |
fascinating position, she is both strong because she faces weak | :10:04. | :10:07. | |
opposition and is ahead in the opinion polls. But faces the most | :10:08. | :10:12. | |
daunting agenda of any Prime Minister for 40 or 50 years, I | :10:13. | :10:16. | |
think. So it's a weird combination. I don't think she wants to call an | :10:17. | :10:20. | |
election. I don't think she has thought about how you would | :10:21. | :10:23. | |
manipulate it, what the trigger would be, and whether she's got the | :10:24. | :10:27. | |
energy and space to prepare for and then mount a campaign was beginning | :10:28. | :10:33. | |
the Brexit negotiation. Now, you could see the cause would be the | :10:34. | :10:38. | |
small majorities that will make her life hellish, which it will do. | :10:39. | :10:41. | |
Whether a landslide would help is another question, they can be | :10:42. | :10:45. | |
difficult too. But I think the problems outweigh the advantages of | :10:46. | :10:49. | |
going early. Do you think she would go for an early election? I don't | :10:50. | :10:53. | |
and I think you have to look at the rhetoric coming out of No 10 which | :10:54. | :10:57. | |
is so firm on this question, it is a delicious prospect for us as | :10:58. | :11:00. | |
commentators to think there might be an election around the corner but | :11:01. | :11:03. | |
they are so firm on this I can't see it happening. I agree, we are in | :11:04. | :11:08. | |
unanimous agreement on this one. It is superficially attractive because | :11:09. | :11:10. | |
she would love the big majority and she would get a lot more through | :11:11. | :11:14. | |
Parliament especially with Brexit. The nitty-gritty of it makes an | :11:15. | :11:17. | |
early General Election this year almost impossible. How do you write | :11:18. | :11:22. | |
a manifesto on high Brexit versus soft Brexit, it opens up a Pandora's | :11:23. | :11:27. | |
box of uncertainties. And there is enough with the European elections. | :11:28. | :11:31. | |
The EU will say are we negotiating with you or the person who may | :11:32. | :11:35. | |
replace you? How do you keep the Tory party united going to an | :11:36. | :11:39. | |
election? How do you call one, with a vote of no confidence in yourself | :11:40. | :11:43. | |
you may end up losing. Easy on paper but difficult in practice. We shall | :11:44. | :11:44. | |
see. So if Theresa May did go | :11:45. | :11:46. | |
for an early election this spring, The party's campaigns | :11:47. | :11:48. | |
and elections chief Andrew Gwynne Andrew Gwynne, the government, as we | :11:49. | :11:59. | |
have just been talking about, executed one of the most | :12:00. | :12:02. | |
embarrassing U-turns in recent history this week. It has been a | :12:03. | :12:05. | |
torrid time for the Theresa May government. Why are the Tories still | :12:06. | :12:09. | |
so chipper? The Labour Party has been on an | :12:10. | :12:14. | |
early election footing since before Christmas and we are preparing | :12:15. | :12:17. | |
ourselves for that eventuality in case that does come. That means that | :12:18. | :12:21. | |
we've got to get ourselves into a position whereby we can not only | :12:22. | :12:26. | |
challenge the government but we can also offer a valuable alternative | :12:27. | :12:32. | |
for the British people to choose from should that election arise. So, | :12:33. | :12:38. | |
would you welcome an early General Election? Well, of course, I don't | :12:39. | :12:41. | |
want this government to be in power so of course if there is an | :12:42. | :12:44. | |
opportunity to put a case to the British people as to why there is a | :12:45. | :12:48. | |
better way, and I believe the Labour way is the better way than of course | :12:49. | :12:53. | |
we would want to put that case to the country. So, would Labour vote | :12:54. | :12:58. | |
in the Commons for an early election? Well, of course as an | :12:59. | :13:02. | |
opposition, not wanting to be in opposition, wanting to be in | :13:03. | :13:06. | |
government should the government put forward a measure in accordance with | :13:07. | :13:10. | |
the Fixed-term Parliaments Act then that's something we would very | :13:11. | :13:13. | |
seriously have to consider. I know you would have to consider it but | :13:14. | :13:17. | |
would you vote for an early election or not? Well, of course we want to | :13:18. | :13:22. | |
be the government so if the current government puts forward measures to | :13:23. | :13:25. | |
bring forward a General Election we would want to put our case to the | :13:26. | :13:29. | |
British public and that's one of the jobs that I've been given, together | :13:30. | :13:34. | |
Labour Party organisation early into a position where we can fight a | :13:35. | :13:37. | |
General Election -- organisationally. For the avoidance | :13:38. | :13:42. | |
of doubt, if the Government work to issue a motion in the Commons for an | :13:43. | :13:46. | |
early election, the Labour Party would vote for an early election? | :13:47. | :13:50. | |
It would be very difficult not, Andrew. If the Government wants to | :13:51. | :13:54. | |
dissolve parliament, wants a General Election, we don't want the Tories | :13:55. | :13:57. | |
in government, we want to be in government and we want to have that | :13:58. | :14:02. | |
opportunity to put that case to the British people. | :14:03. | :14:04. | |
Are you ready for an early election? You say you have been on a war all | :14:05. | :14:13. | |
but since the Labour conference last autumn, but are you ready for one? | :14:14. | :14:15. | |
How big is the election fighting fund? We have substantial amounts of | :14:16. | :14:18. | |
money in our fighting fund, that is true, because not only has the | :14:19. | :14:23. | |
Labour Party managed to eliminate its own financial deficit that it | :14:24. | :14:28. | |
inherited from previous election campaigns, we have also managed to | :14:29. | :14:36. | |
build up a substantial fund in the off chance we have an election. We | :14:37. | :14:41. | |
have also expanded massively operations at Labour HQ, we are | :14:42. | :14:45. | |
taking on additional staff, and one of the jobs that myself and Ian | :14:46. | :14:48. | |
Lavery who I job share with are currently doing is to go around the | :14:49. | :14:52. | |
Parliamentary Labour Party to make sure that Labour colleagues have the | :14:53. | :14:56. | |
support and the resources that they need, should they have to face the | :14:57. | :14:59. | |
electorate in their constituencies. So you are on a war footing, ready | :15:00. | :15:04. | |
for the fight, you say you would vote for the fight, so have you got | :15:05. | :15:08. | |
your tax and spend policies ready to roll out? That is something the | :15:09. | :15:13. | |
shadow Treasury team will be discussing. One of the things is, if | :15:14. | :15:18. | |
there is an early General Election, the normal timetable for these | :15:19. | :15:21. | |
things gets fast-track because our policy decision-making body, its | :15:22. | :15:26. | |
annual conference, we have the national policy forum that creates | :15:27. | :15:31. | |
policies suggestions. You have been on a war footing since the last | :15:32. | :15:34. | |
Labour conference, that is what Mr Corbyn told us. So you must have a | :15:35. | :15:38. | |
fair idea of what policies you would fight an early election on. How much | :15:39. | :15:43. | |
extra per year would you spend on the NHS? Well, look, I'm not going | :15:44. | :15:47. | |
to set out the Labour manifesto for an election that hasn't been called. | :15:48. | :15:51. | |
I'm just asking you about the NHS. You must have a policy for that. We | :15:52. | :15:56. | |
have a policy for the NHS. So how much extra? I will not set out | :15:57. | :16:01. | |
Labour's tax-and-spend policies here on The Sunday Politics when there | :16:02. | :16:05. | |
hasn't even been election called. You said you had been on a war | :16:06. | :16:09. | |
footing and you are prepared to vote for one, so if you can't Tommy that, | :16:10. | :16:15. | |
can you tell me what the corporation rate tax on company profits be under | :16:16. | :16:19. | |
a Labour government -- tell me that. You will have to be patient. I have. | :16:20. | :16:26. | |
And wait for Mrs May to trigger an early election. If there is an | :16:27. | :16:29. | |
election on the 4th of May the rich would have to be issued on the 27th | :16:30. | :16:33. | |
of March, so that's not long to wait. If that date passes we aren't | :16:34. | :16:39. | |
having an election on the 4th of May and the normal timetable for policy | :16:40. | :16:44. | |
development will continue. All right. You lost Copeland, I think | :16:45. | :16:48. | |
you were in charge of a by-election for Labour, your national poll | :16:49. | :16:51. | |
ratings are still dire, even after week of terrible times for the | :16:52. | :16:57. | |
Tories. Sometimes you even lose local government by-elections in | :16:58. | :17:01. | |
safe seats, including in the place you are now, in Salford. How long | :17:02. | :17:05. | |
does Mr Corbyn have to turn this around? Well, look, the issue of the | :17:06. | :17:10. | |
Labour leadership was settled last year. The last thing the Labour | :17:11. | :17:14. | |
Party now needs is another period of introspection with the Labour Party | :17:15. | :17:18. | |
merely talks to the Labour Party. We are now on an election footing in | :17:19. | :17:24. | |
case Mrs May does trigger an early General Election. We need to be | :17:25. | :17:29. | |
talking to the British people are not to ourselves. So any speculation | :17:30. | :17:33. | |
about the Labour leadership might excite you in the media but actually | :17:34. | :17:38. | |
for us in the Labour Party it's about re-engaging and reconnecting | :17:39. | :17:41. | |
with the voters. Rather than being excited, I feel quite daunted at the | :17:42. | :17:45. | |
prospect of an early election. So I wouldn't get that right. Normally, | :17:46. | :17:51. | |
given the number of mistakes this government has made, and its | :17:52. | :17:55. | |
mid-term, you would expect any self-respecting opposition to be | :17:56. | :17:59. | |
about ten points ahead. On the latest polls this morning you are 17 | :18:00. | :18:04. | |
behind. There is a 27-30 point gap from where you should normally be as | :18:05. | :18:09. | |
an opposition. Are you telling me that if that doesn't change, you | :18:10. | :18:12. | |
still fight the General Election with Mr Corbyn? | :18:13. | :18:18. | |
These are matters for the future. I believe the leadership issue was | :18:19. | :18:26. | |
settled last year. We have had two leadership contest in two years. | :18:27. | :18:30. | |
Would you seriously contemplate going into the next election, if it | :18:31. | :18:34. | |
is early I perfectly understand Jeremy Corbyn is your man, but if it | :18:35. | :18:40. | |
is not until 2020, and you are still 17 points behind in the polls, will | :18:41. | :18:44. | |
you go into the next election like that? There is a lot of future | :18:45. | :18:48. | |
looking and speculation there, I don't know what the future holds, | :18:49. | :18:58. | |
where the Labour Party will be in 12 months let alone by 2020 summit | :18:59. | :19:00. | |
cross those bridges when we come to it. My main challenge is to make | :19:01. | :19:03. | |
sure the Labour Party is in the best possible place organisationally to | :19:04. | :19:06. | |
fight an election, that's my challenge and I'm up for that to | :19:07. | :19:09. | |
make sure we are in the best possible place to make sure Labour | :19:10. | :19:16. | |
returns as many Labour MPs as possible. Thank you for joining us. | :19:17. | :19:22. | |
And we're joined now from the Liberal Democrats' spring | :19:23. | :19:24. | |
conference in York by the former Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg. | :19:25. | :19:26. | |
Good morning. In his conference speech today, Tim Farron lumps | :19:27. | :19:35. | |
Theresa May with Vladimir Putin, Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump. In | :19:36. | :19:40. | |
what way is Mrs May similar to Marine Le Pen? Of course he is not | :19:41. | :19:48. | |
saying Theresa May is identical to Marine Le Pen, I think what Tim | :19:49. | :19:54. | |
Wilby spelling out shortly in his speech is that we need to be aware | :19:55. | :19:58. | |
what's going on in the world, the International settlement that was | :19:59. | :20:05. | |
arrived at after the First World -- Second World War, that bound | :20:06. | :20:11. | |
supranational organisations is under attack from characters as diverse as | :20:12. | :20:16. | |
Vladimir Putin, Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump, and that by side in so | :20:17. | :20:20. | |
ostentatiously with Donald Trump and pursuing this very hard Brexit, | :20:21. | :20:24. | |
Theresa May appears to be giving succour to that much more | :20:25. | :20:29. | |
isolationist chauvinist view of the world than the multilateral approach | :20:30. | :20:33. | |
that Britain has subscribed to for a long time. The exact words he plans | :20:34. | :20:38. | |
to use are welcome to the New World order, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, | :20:39. | :20:47. | |
Marine Le Pen, Theresa May, aggressive and teenage to, anti-EU, | :20:48. | :20:52. | |
nationalistic. In what way is Mrs May fitting into any of that? In | :20:53. | :20:57. | |
what way is she similar to Vladimir Putin? I'm not aware she has | :20:58. | :21:03. | |
interfered with other people's elections. The clue is in the quote | :21:04. | :21:08. | |
you just read out, which is the world order. The world order over | :21:09. | :21:13. | |
the last half century or more, by the way a lesson I'm afraid we have | :21:14. | :21:17. | |
to learn in Europe because of the terrible bloodshed of two world was | :21:18. | :21:22. | |
in the space of a few decades, was based on the idea might is not | :21:23. | :21:26. | |
right. Strong arm leaders cannot throw their weight around. What we | :21:27. | :21:32. | |
have now with Putin, the populism across parts of Europe and Donald | :21:33. | :21:39. | |
Trump who thinks the EU will unravel is a shift to a radically different | :21:40. | :21:44. | |
view of the world. Mrs May doesn't think any of that. She is not | :21:45. | :21:50. | |
antenatal, not anti-EU, she says she wants the EU to succeed. She's not | :21:51. | :21:56. | |
aggressive as far as I'm aware so I'm not sure why you would lump the | :21:57. | :21:59. | |
British Prime Minister in with these other characters. Let me explain, by | :22:00. | :22:06. | |
choosing this uncompromising approach to Brexit, clearly in doing | :22:07. | :22:13. | |
so she, in my view, maybe not yours or others, is pursuing a self | :22:14. | :22:17. | |
harming approach to the United Kingdom but also pulling up the | :22:18. | :22:21. | |
threads that bind the rest of the European Union together, in so | :22:22. | :22:26. | |
ostentatiously siding with Donald Trump, somehow declaring in my view | :22:27. | :22:31. | |
speciously that we can make up with the trade we will lose, she's not | :22:32. | :22:40. | |
challenging the shift to a more chauvinist approach to world affairs | :22:41. | :22:44. | |
that is happening in many places. You are at your party's Spring | :22:45. | :22:49. | |
conference, I think we can agree any Lib Dem come back will take a long | :22:50. | :22:54. | |
time. Would Tory dominance be more effectively challenged by a | :22:55. | :22:59. | |
realignment of the centre and the centre-left? Are you working towards | :23:00. | :23:04. | |
that? I missed half the question but I think you are talking about a | :23:05. | :23:11. | |
realignment. As a cook a way to get over Tory dominance, would you want | :23:12. | :23:15. | |
that to happen? Are you working towards that? My view is the | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
recovery of the Lib Dems will be quicker than you suggest. People | :23:21. | :23:25. | |
often forget that even the low point of our fortunes in the last election | :23:26. | :23:29. | |
we still got a million more votes than the SNP, it's only because we | :23:30. | :23:33. | |
have got this crazy electoral system... But the SNP fight in | :23:34. | :23:42. | |
Scotland, you fight in the whole country! But I'm saying the way | :23:43. | :23:48. | |
seats are allocated overlooks the fact that 2.5 million still voted | :23:49. | :23:57. | |
for us. But my own view is of course there are people feeling | :23:58. | :24:01. | |
increasingly homeless in the liberal wing of the Conservative Party | :24:02. | :24:04. | |
because they are now in a party which is in effect indistinguishable | :24:05. | :24:08. | |
from Ukip on some of the biggest issues of the day, and homeless folk | :24:09. | :24:14. | |
on the rational, reasonable wing of the Labour Party. I would invite | :24:15. | :24:18. | |
them to join the Liberal Democrats and I would invite everyone across | :24:19. | :24:23. | |
parties to talk about the idea is that bind us because the Westminster | :24:24. | :24:28. | |
village can invest a lot of energy building new castles in the sky, | :24:29. | :24:32. | |
inventing new names for parties when actually what you want is for people | :24:33. | :24:35. | |
on the progressive centre ground of British politics to talk about the | :24:36. | :24:47. | |
ideas that unite them, from the dilemmas of artificial intelligence | :24:48. | :24:52. | |
to climate change. Do you think in your own view, can Brexit still be | :24:53. | :24:56. | |
thwarted or is it now a matter of getting the best terms? I think we | :24:57. | :25:05. | |
are in an interlude, almost a calm between two storms, the storm of the | :25:06. | :25:09. | |
referendum itself and the collision between the Government's stated | :25:10. | :25:13. | |
ambitions for Brexit and the reality of having to negotiate something | :25:14. | :25:17. | |
unworkable with 27 other governments. The one thing I can | :25:18. | :25:22. | |
guarantee you is that what the Government has promised to the | :25:23. | :25:33. | |
British people cannot happen. Over a slower period of time we will work | :25:34. | :25:38. | |
out our new relationship with the European Union. Theresa May said she | :25:39. | :25:42. | |
will settle divorce arrangements, and pensions, so one, negotiate new | :25:43. | :25:48. | |
trade agreements, new climate change policies and so on, and have all of | :25:49. | :25:53. | |
that ratified within two years, that will not happen so I think there | :25:54. | :25:57. | |
will be a lot of turbulence in the next couple of years. Will you use | :25:58. | :26:03. | |
this turbulence to try to thwart Brexit, to find a way of rolling | :26:04. | :26:09. | |
back the decision? It's not about repeating the debates of the past or | :26:10. | :26:13. | |
thwarting the will of the people but it is comparing what people were | :26:14. | :26:19. | |
promised from the ?350 million for the NHS every week through to this | :26:20. | :26:25. | |
glittering array of new trade agreements we will sign across the | :26:26. | :26:29. | |
world, with the reality that will transpire in the next couple of | :26:30. | :26:33. | |
years and at that point, yes it is my belief people should be able to | :26:34. | :26:37. | |
take a second look at if that is what they really want. A couple of | :26:38. | :26:41. | |
quick questions, would you welcome an early general election? I always | :26:42. | :26:49. | |
welcome them, we couldn't do worse than we did last time. That is | :26:50. | :26:56. | |
certainly true. You have a column in the Evening Standard, have you | :26:57. | :26:58. | |
spoken to the new editor about whether he will keep your column or | :26:59. | :27:05. | |
spike it? No, I wait in nervous anticipation. Can you be a newspaper | :27:06. | :27:12. | |
editor in the morning and an MP in the afternoon? Do I think that's | :27:13. | :27:20. | |
feasible? Sorry, I missed a bit. There is no prohibition, no law | :27:21. | :27:25. | |
against MPs being editors. They have been in the past and no doubt will | :27:26. | :27:30. | |
again in the future. He is taking a lot on, he is an editor, also | :27:31. | :27:37. | |
wanting to be an MP, a jetsetting academic in the States, working in | :27:38. | :27:41. | |
the city, I suspect something will give. It seems to me even by his | :27:42. | :27:46. | |
self-confidence standards in his own abilities I suspect he is taking on | :27:47. | :27:52. | |
a little bit too much. Very diplomatic, Mr Clegg, I'm sure you | :27:53. | :27:55. | |
will get to keep the column. Thanks for joining us. | :27:56. | :28:00. | |
Now, for the last six months England's NHS bosses have been | :28:01. | :28:02. | |
warning the health service needs more money to help it meet | :28:03. | :28:05. | |
But in his first Budget, the Chancellor offered | :28:06. | :28:08. | |
no immediate relief, and today the head of | :28:09. | :28:10. | |
the organisation representing England's NHS trusts says hundreds | :28:11. | :28:12. | |
of thousands of patients will have to wait longer for both emergency | :28:13. | :28:15. | |
care and planned operations, unless the Government | :28:16. | :28:16. | |
Warnings over funding are not exactly new. | :28:17. | :28:24. | |
Back in 2014 the head of the NHS in England, Simon Stevens, | :28:25. | :28:27. | |
published his plan for the future of the health service. | :28:28. | :28:31. | |
In his five-year forward view, Stevens said the NHS in England | :28:32. | :28:34. | |
would face a funding shortfall of up to ?30 billion by 2020. | :28:35. | :28:37. | |
To bridge that gap he said the NHS would need more money | :28:38. | :28:40. | |
from the Government, at least ?8 billion extra, | :28:41. | :28:44. | |
and that the health service could account for the rest by making | :28:45. | :28:47. | |
The Government says it's given the health service more than what it | :28:48. | :28:54. | |
asked for, and that NHS in England will have received | :28:55. | :28:56. | |
That number is disputed by NHS managers and the chair | :28:57. | :29:02. | |
of Parliament's health committee, who say the figure is more | :29:03. | :29:04. | |
like ?4.5 billion, while other parts of the health and social care budget | :29:05. | :29:07. | |
have been cut, putting pressure on the front line. | :29:08. | :29:13. | |
Last year, two thirds of NHS trusts in England finished | :29:14. | :29:16. | |
the year in the red, and despite emergency bailouts | :29:17. | :29:19. | |
from the Government, the NHS is likely to record | :29:20. | :29:21. | |
Meanwhile national targets on waiting times for A | :29:22. | :29:26. | |
departments, diagnostic tests, and operations are being | :29:27. | :29:28. | |
This month's Budget provided ?2 billion for social care | :29:29. | :29:36. | |
but there was no new cash for the NHS, leading trusts to warn | :29:37. | :29:40. | |
that patient care is beginning to suffer, and what is being asked | :29:41. | :29:43. | |
And I'm joined now by the Chief Executive of NHS | :29:44. | :29:49. | |
Providers in England, Chris Hopson. | :29:50. | :29:54. | |
Welcome to the programme. Morning, Andrew. I will come onto the extra | :29:55. | :30:01. | |
money you need to do your job properly in a minute but first, part | :30:02. | :30:06. | |
of the deal was you had to make 22 billion in efficiency savings, not a | :30:07. | :30:09. | |
bank that money but spend it on patient care, the front line, and so | :30:10. | :30:15. | |
on. How is that going? So, last parliament we realised around 18 | :30:16. | :30:17. | |
billion of productivity and efficiency savings, we are realising | :30:18. | :30:21. | |
more this year so we are on course to realise 3 billion this year, that | :30:22. | :30:25. | |
is a quarter of a billion more than last year but all of us in the NHS | :30:26. | :30:30. | |
knew the 22 billion would be a very stretching target and we are | :30:31. | :30:34. | |
somewhat inevitably falling short. So it is 22 billion by 2,020. | :30:35. | :30:41. | |
Roughly. That was the time. We are now into 2017. So how much of the 22 | :30:42. | :30:49. | |
billion have you achieved? We realised around 3 billion last year | :30:50. | :30:54. | |
and we will realise 3 billion this year, Court of billion more, 3.25 | :30:55. | :31:00. | |
billion this year, so we are on course for 18-19,000,000,000. By the | :31:01. | :31:04. | |
2021 period? You are not that far away. The problem is the degree to | :31:05. | :31:08. | |
which demand is going up. We have record demand over the winter period | :31:09. | :31:13. | |
and that actually meant we have seen more people than we have ever seen | :31:14. | :31:17. | |
before but performance is still under real pressure. Let me come | :31:18. | :31:23. | |
onto that. When you agreed on the 22 billion efficiency savings plus some | :31:24. | :31:27. | |
extra money from the government, I know there is a bit of an argument | :31:28. | :31:31. | |
about how much that is actually worth, had you not factored in this | :31:32. | :31:36. | |
extra demand that you saw coming over the next three or four years? | :31:37. | :31:40. | |
Let's be very clear committee referred to Simon Stevens's forward | :31:41. | :31:45. | |
view and we signed up to it but the 22 billion was a process run at the | :31:46. | :31:49. | |
centre of government by the Department of Health with its arms | :31:50. | :31:52. | |
length bodies, NHS England and others and is not something that was | :31:53. | :31:56. | |
consulted on with the NHS. But you signed up to it. We always said that | :31:57. | :32:00. | |
the day that that Spending Review was announced, the idea that the NHS | :32:01. | :32:06. | |
where customer demand goes up something like four or 5% every | :32:07. | :32:09. | |
year, the idea that in the middle years of Parliament we would be able | :32:10. | :32:13. | |
to provide the same level of service when we were only getting funding | :32:14. | :32:19. | |
increases of 1.3%, 0.4% and 0.7%, and I can show you the press release | :32:20. | :32:23. | |
we issued, we always said there was going to be a gap and that we would | :32:24. | :32:28. | |
not be able to deliver what was required. The full 22 billion in | :32:29. | :32:35. | |
other words? What we said to Simon Stevens at the Public Accounts | :32:36. | :32:37. | |
Committee a few months ago, the NHS didn't get what it was asked for. | :32:38. | :32:43. | |
Today the NHS, cope with the resources it has according to you. | :32:44. | :32:50. | |
How much more does it need? Are reported is about 2017-18 and we | :32:51. | :32:52. | |
estimate that what we are being asked to do, and again, Andrew, you | :32:53. | :32:56. | |
clearly set it out in the package, we are a long way off the four-hour | :32:57. | :33:02. | |
A target and a long way off the 92%. The waiting times and | :33:03. | :33:06. | |
operations. How much more do you need? And we are making up a ?900 | :33:07. | :33:11. | |
million deficit. If you take all of those into account we estimate you | :33:12. | :33:15. | |
would need an extra ?3.5 billion next year in order to deliver all of | :33:16. | :33:20. | |
those targets and eliminate the deficit. That would be 3.5 billion | :33:21. | :33:23. | |
on top of what is already planned next year and that would be 3.5 | :33:24. | :33:28. | |
billion repeated in the years to come too? Yes, Andrew it is | :33:29. | :33:31. | |
important we should make an important distinction about the NHS | :33:32. | :33:37. | |
versus other public services. When the last government, the last Labour | :33:38. | :33:40. | |
government put extra money into the NHS it clearly said that in return | :33:41. | :33:44. | |
for that it would establish some standards in the NHS Constitution, | :33:45. | :33:49. | |
the 95% A target we have talked about and the 92% elective surgery | :33:50. | :33:53. | |
we have talked about. The trust we represent are very clear, they would | :33:54. | :33:57. | |
want to realise those standards, but you can only do it if you pay for | :33:58. | :34:01. | |
it. The problem is at the moment is we are in the longest and deepest | :34:02. | :34:06. | |
financial squeeze in NHS history. As we have said, funding is only going | :34:07. | :34:09. | |
up by 1% per year but every year just to stand still cost and demand | :34:10. | :34:15. | |
go up by more than 4%. There is clearly a demand for more money. I | :34:16. | :34:20. | |
think people watching this programme will think probably the NHS is going | :34:21. | :34:23. | |
to have to get more money to meet the goals you have been given. I | :34:24. | :34:27. | |
think they would also like to be sure that your Mac running the NHS | :34:28. | :34:32. | |
as efficiently as it could be. We read this morning that trusts have | :34:33. | :34:36. | |
got ?100 million of empty properties that cost 10 million to maintain, 36 | :34:37. | :34:41. | |
office blocks are not being used, you have surplus land equivalent to | :34:42. | :34:44. | |
office blocks are not being used, 1800 football pitches. Yes, there | :34:45. | :34:48. | |
are a number of things that we know in the NHS we need to do better but | :34:49. | :34:53. | |
let me remind you, Andrew, in the last Parliament we realised ?18 | :34:54. | :34:57. | |
billion worth of cost improvement gains. We are going to realise | :34:58. | :35:02. | |
another 3 billion this year, 0.25 billion more than last year so these | :35:03. | :35:08. | |
things are being targeted. But having that surplus land, it is | :35:09. | :35:11. | |
almost certainly in areas where there is a demand for housing. | :35:12. | :35:17. | |
Absolutely. So why not release it for housing? You get the money, the | :35:18. | :35:21. | |
people get their houses and its contribution and a signal that you | :35:22. | :35:24. | |
are running NHS assets as efficiently as you can? Tell me if | :35:25. | :35:29. | |
I'm going to too much detail for you. One of the reasons as to why | :35:30. | :35:34. | |
our trusts are reluctant to realise those land sales is because there is | :35:35. | :35:37. | |
an assumption that the money would go back to the Treasury and wouldn't | :35:38. | :35:42. | |
benefit NHS trusts. You could make a deal, couldn't you? That's part of | :35:43. | :35:45. | |
the conversation going on at the moment. The issue is that we would | :35:46. | :35:49. | |
want to ensure that if we do release land, quite rightly the benefit, | :35:50. | :35:53. | |
particularly in foundation trusts which are, as you will remember, | :35:54. | :36:04. | |
deliberately autonomous organisations, that they should keep | :36:05. | :36:07. | |
the benefit of those land sales. Have you raised that with the | :36:08. | :36:08. | |
Yes we have. What did they say? They are in discussions of it. We heard | :36:09. | :36:20. | |
somebody who moved from one job and then to another job and given a | :36:21. | :36:22. | |
somebody who moved from one job and salary and then almost ?200,000 as a | :36:23. | :36:27. | |
payoff. There is a national mood for the NHS to get more money. But | :36:28. | :36:31. | |
before you give anybody any more money you want to be sure that the | :36:32. | :36:34. | |
money you have got already is being properly spent, which for us, is the | :36:35. | :36:38. | |
patient at the end of the day. And yet there seem to be these enormous | :36:39. | :36:43. | |
salaries and payoffs. I've worked in a FTSE 100 on the board of Her | :36:44. | :36:50. | |
Majesty's Revenue and Customs and I have worked in large organisations. | :36:51. | :36:52. | |
I can look you completely straight in the eye and tell you that the | :36:53. | :36:56. | |
jobs that our hospital, community, mental health and ambulance chief | :36:57. | :36:59. | |
Executives do are amongst the most complicated leadership roles I have | :37:00. | :37:03. | |
ever seen. It doesn't seem to me to be unreasonable that in order to get | :37:04. | :37:06. | |
the right quality of people we should pay an appropriate salary. | :37:07. | :37:10. | |
The reality is the salaries are paid are not excessive when talking about | :37:11. | :37:15. | |
managing budgets of over ?1 billion a year and talking about managing | :37:16. | :37:18. | |
tens of thousands of staff. There was a doctor working as a locum that | :37:19. | :37:26. | |
earned an extra ?375,000. One of the problems in the NHS is a mismatch | :37:27. | :37:30. | |
between the number of staff we need and the number of staff coming | :37:31. | :37:33. | |
through the pipeline. What is having to happen is if you want to keep a | :37:34. | :37:38. | |
service going you have to use Mackem and agency staff. Even at that cost? | :37:39. | :37:41. | |
You would not want to pay those amounts. But you are. The chief | :37:42. | :37:48. | |
Executives's choice in those areas is giving the service open or | :37:49. | :37:51. | |
employing a locum. I'm sure you could find a locum prepared to work | :37:52. | :37:56. | |
for less than that. What indication, what hopes do you have of getting | :37:57. | :38:02. | |
the extra ?3 billion? The government has been very clear, for the moment | :38:03. | :38:07. | |
it wants to stick to the existing funding settlement it has agreed. So | :38:08. | :38:12. | |
there was nothing in the budget. Can I finish by making one important | :38:13. | :38:16. | |
point. Please, finish. This is the first time the NHS has said before | :38:17. | :38:20. | |
the year has even started that we can't deliver on those standards. We | :38:21. | :38:26. | |
believe, as do most people who work in the NHS, that the NHS is on a | :38:27. | :38:30. | |
gradual slow decline. This is a very important inflection point to Mark, | :38:31. | :38:34. | |
this is the first time before the financial year starts that we say we | :38:35. | :38:37. | |
cannot meet the targets we are being asked to deliver and are in the NHS | :38:38. | :38:42. | |
Constitution. We have run out of time. Chris Hopson, thank you for | :38:43. | :38:43. | |
being with me. It's just gone 11:35am, | :38:44. | :38:44. | |
you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers | :38:45. | :38:47. | |
in Scotland who leave us now Good morning and welcome | :38:48. | :38:52. | |
to Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up on the programme - | :38:53. | :38:54. | |
the battle of the wills. Nicola Sturgeon insists | :38:55. | :38:58. | |
there will be a second referendum but with Theresa May insisting | :38:59. | :39:01. | |
there will not be one now - Our country stands at a crossroads, | :39:02. | :39:15. | |
the future of the UK looks very different today than it did two | :39:16. | :39:16. | |
years ago. And on Wednesday the Scottish | :39:17. | :39:20. | |
Parliament votes on Indyref2 - I'll be speaking to the Tories | :39:21. | :39:22. | |
who plan to vote no and the Greens, without whose support | :39:23. | :39:25. | |
the Scottish Government cannot win. If you're watching this | :39:26. | :39:28. | |
programme in England, Wales or Northern Ireland and feel | :39:29. | :39:30. | |
a bit peeved with Brexit and rather fancy living | :39:31. | :39:33. | |
in an independent Scotland - Because yesterday, at her | :39:34. | :39:35. | |
party's spring conference, the First Minister invited | :39:36. | :39:37. | |
all Britons to settle in the "progressive outward looking | :39:38. | :39:39. | |
country" that the SNP believes The only fly in this utopian | :39:40. | :39:42. | |
ointment is the need to win a referendum first - | :39:43. | :39:49. | |
and in order to win a referendum, Shortly I'll be speaking | :39:50. | :39:52. | |
to the Scottish Government's Cabinet Secretary for External Affairs - | :39:53. | :39:56. | |
Fiona Hyslop. But first, Graham Stewart's been | :39:57. | :39:59. | |
assessing the mood among delegates, These kind of referendums are once | :40:00. | :40:29. | |
in a generation events. No means we stay in, we are members of the | :40:30. | :40:35. | |
European Union. We can't keep spending money you haven't actually | :40:36. | :40:42. | |
got. The dream shall never die. Ecclesial all added misty eyed, | :40:43. | :40:47. | |
doesn't it? If only someone could help us relive that festival of | :40:48. | :40:52. | |
democracy. I can confirm today that Nick Clegg I will seek the authority | :40:53. | :40:54. | |
of the Scottish Parliament to agree with the UK Government the details | :40:55. | :41:00. | |
of a Section 35 Order. The procedure that will enable the Scottish | :41:01. | :41:02. | |
Parliament to legislate for an independence referendum. Nicola | :41:03. | :41:07. | |
Sturgeon's announcement set Tomic the UK Government off-guard. While | :41:08. | :41:12. | |
it took them a few days to formulate a response, when the answer came, it | :41:13. | :41:17. | |
was repeated over and over again. Now is not the time. Now is not the | :41:18. | :41:23. | |
time. Now is not the time. When is the right time? Now is not the time. | :41:24. | :41:30. | |
Is not now, when? That's the question that has been exercising | :41:31. | :41:34. | |
delegates at the SNP conference this weekend. But wondering which side | :41:35. | :41:40. | |
benefits from I think it benefits the SNP and I think the SNP will | :41:41. | :41:43. | |
have factored this in. They are willing to go all the way up to | :41:44. | :41:49. | |
2020, 2021, which I think pre-Brexit was the original planning. They will | :41:50. | :41:52. | |
have anticipated the Prime Minister in the UK Government saying not | :41:53. | :41:56. | |
until after the exit. And they will be comfortable with something later | :41:57. | :42:00. | |
on. Not, however, with anything after May 2021, which is where I | :42:01. | :42:09. | |
think it becomes harder for the SNP. If Brexit is chaotic and nasty and | :42:10. | :42:12. | |
extraordinarily exhausting, as we expected to be, because after all, | :42:13. | :42:16. | |
every aspect of European law has to be unpicked may be integrated and | :42:17. | :42:20. | |
then removed, if all of that begins to hit people the most incredible | :42:21. | :42:25. | |
double they have ever experienced, then the longer it goes on, the | :42:26. | :42:28. | |
better it works for Scottish independence. -- guddle. When I | :42:29. | :42:39. | |
heard the announcement, I had shivers down my spine and went back | :42:40. | :42:41. | |
home and trying to find my posters and badges and I just want to get | :42:42. | :42:46. | |
going and change those people that said no before. The Scottish people | :42:47. | :42:52. | |
have certainly demanded it, by returning 57 out of 59 MPs, I think | :42:53. | :42:54. | |
that is another proof that the second referendum is required. I | :42:55. | :42:59. | |
wasn't actively involved in persuading other people last time, | :43:00. | :43:01. | |
other than through social media but I think I'm actually tread the | :43:02. | :43:10. | |
boards and knock on doors. Having to persuade former Yes voters who had | :43:11. | :43:15. | |
switched sides because of Europe gobsmacked I don't want Scotland to | :43:16. | :43:19. | |
come out of one United Kingdom of 60 million and then go into another one | :43:20. | :43:23. | |
of 400 million, where people have even less voice, so, no thank you. | :43:24. | :43:26. | |
One third of SNP supporters basically think the same as me. What | :43:27. | :43:31. | |
kind of reaction have you had since you announced publicly you were | :43:32. | :43:38. | |
moving from yes to no? People Act as though I have betrayed the faith, I | :43:39. | :43:41. | |
have been called a traitor, I've been told to get out, I have been | :43:42. | :43:48. | |
told I am a liar, the ultimate insult is chilly unionist. Other | :43:49. | :43:55. | |
voters are switched from no to yes because of the exit. My reasons are | :43:56. | :43:58. | |
twofold, I believe there is an economic case for Scotland to remain | :43:59. | :44:02. | |
in the single market, we cannot do that if we leave. The other is a | :44:03. | :44:07. | |
moral case, I think that liberal democracy in Europe is under threat | :44:08. | :44:12. | |
moral case, I think that liberal and to say no two that sort of | :44:13. | :44:16. | |
thinking is important for Scotland. But for Nicola Sturgeon that is the | :44:17. | :44:20. | |
small matter of agreeing a date first. If only it was as easy as | :44:21. | :44:22. | |
days gone by... # Can it be that it | :44:23. | :44:34. | |
was so simple then? Joining me now from Linlithgow | :44:35. | :44:53. | |
is the Cabinet Secretary Fiona Hyslop, on the assumption that | :44:54. | :45:13. | |
the Scottish Parliament votes for another referendum and Theresa May | :45:14. | :45:20. | |
says she will not put a Section 35 Order before Parliament, what | :45:21. | :45:26. | |
happens next? Well, welcome to Linlithgow, it is the case that we | :45:27. | :45:33. | |
have to get through the process, we not calling for a referendum now. It | :45:34. | :45:38. | |
will be an opportunity to learn more behind Brexit opportunity is going | :45:39. | :45:42. | |
to be so this week is important because this is a vote for the | :45:43. | :45:46. | |
Scottish Parliament, the elected Scottish Parliament, in terms of the | :45:47. | :45:51. | |
process of securing the discussions around Section 30... Sure, but one | :45:52. | :45:58. | |
the reason may refuses and says, I am not ruling out a referendum, wait | :45:59. | :46:01. | |
until Brexit has taken effect and see what effect it has only Scottish | :46:02. | :46:05. | |
economy, by all means come and see me and we will have a discussion, | :46:06. | :46:09. | |
what do you say? Well, there are two sides to that. The first part of it | :46:10. | :46:13. | |
is about Section 30 trans-Pennine the powers to have the timetable and | :46:14. | :46:23. | |
DP legislation to have a referendum. But of course, Theresa May has not | :46:24. | :46:25. | |
said they would not be a referendum at all. She thinks it should not | :46:26. | :46:32. | |
happen now. We do not want now and what we wanted at the time when we | :46:33. | :46:35. | |
have more information. So, that first part, that process to make | :46:36. | :46:39. | |
sure powers transferred, Theresa May could agree to that as of now and | :46:40. | :46:44. | |
the discussions about the timetable, and the First Minister has said she | :46:45. | :46:48. | |
is willing to have discussions with Theresa May, those could take place. | :46:49. | :46:52. | |
The second part is making sure we have information about what the deal | :46:53. | :46:57. | |
might mean. One aspect of that is, can we have the referendum at a time | :46:58. | :47:03. | |
when we know what the relationships might be with customs union, that is | :47:04. | :47:06. | |
a huge economic consequence to Scotland, we don't even know within | :47:07. | :47:11. | |
days of the Article 50 being triggered, or the customs union | :47:12. | :47:14. | |
position might be for the UK Government. If we wait too long, | :47:15. | :47:18. | |
that would see Scotland suffer and the idea of 5% of the GDP reduction | :47:19. | :47:22. | |
for the Scottish economy because we're out of the single market would | :47:23. | :47:26. | |
have consequences, so waiting too long may leave it too late for the | :47:27. | :47:30. | |
Scottish economy and the Scottish people. | :47:31. | :47:41. | |
Sorry, what is too long? If the British Government or indeed the | :47:42. | :47:45. | |
Scottish Conservatives say, look, whatever the dealers, wait for a few | :47:46. | :47:47. | |
years until we see evolving are consequences for Scotland you | :47:48. | :47:49. | |
forecast actually happen. In terms of the substance of the issue, | :47:50. | :47:52. | |
rather on the process, what is the argument against that? Even if you | :47:53. | :47:54. | |
are correct, you have accepted that Scotland will have to reapply for | :47:55. | :47:56. | |
membership of the EU anyway, so what is a matter whether it happens in | :47:57. | :48:02. | |
2018, 2019, 2020, or 2023 for that matter? It doesn't really matter, | :48:03. | :48:07. | |
does it? Well, we have a choice and we need clarity. We need to know | :48:08. | :48:13. | |
what type of deal the UK wants. Remember Michel Barnier and David | :48:14. | :48:17. | |
Davis this week echoing Act, determined that the deal would need | :48:18. | :48:23. | |
to be known and the circumstances and arrangements by autumn 2018 to | :48:24. | :48:26. | |
have application across Europe or the other countries. Wouldn't it be | :48:27. | :48:31. | |
ironic if every other country across the EU could decide whether this was | :48:32. | :48:36. | |
a good enough deal but the people of Scotland could not? Particularly | :48:37. | :48:41. | |
when 62% had voted to remain. But you're talking about processes, I am | :48:42. | :48:44. | |
talking about substance. The point I am making is that if it is accepted | :48:45. | :48:47. | |
that Scotland will have to reapply to join the European Union, should | :48:48. | :48:51. | |
that be your policy in a referendum campaign? What doesn't matter if it | :48:52. | :49:00. | |
is 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, if you want to have another referendum, on | :49:01. | :49:03. | |
the substance of the issue, it is that you want to join the EU, it | :49:04. | :49:11. | |
doesn't have to be in 20182019. In terms of the substance, coming out | :49:12. | :49:14. | |
of the single market will have huge economic consequences. We will know | :49:15. | :49:20. | |
by automating, and if we do not know I would be very concerned about UK | :49:21. | :49:25. | |
Government position, what the arrangements might be, we want to be | :49:26. | :49:30. | |
part of the EU, that is our policy. The circumstances that we would find | :49:31. | :49:33. | |
ourselves in at the point at which the UK leads, would be far far | :49:34. | :49:40. | |
clearer in 18 months' time, when the deal is European Union. But you have | :49:41. | :49:44. | |
not yet answered the point about substance. The Conservatives and the | :49:45. | :49:48. | |
British Government will say that we do not believe the consequences of | :49:49. | :49:52. | |
coming out of the EU will be as dire as your forecasting. By did we not | :49:53. | :49:56. | |
wait and see what the consequences actually argument if you're correct, | :49:57. | :49:59. | |
by all means have a referendum and you will probably win but at least | :50:00. | :50:04. | |
give it a chance to see what happens. Is that not just common | :50:05. | :50:12. | |
sense? Well, I think a wish and a pair, relying on a hard Tory | :50:13. | :50:15. | |
right-wing Government, is not what we can accept. If they want to slash | :50:16. | :50:21. | |
taxes, regulation and workers' rights, the disincentive to | :50:22. | :50:24. | |
investment, there are discussions happening all over Europe about | :50:25. | :50:28. | |
financial companies moving to Luxembourg or to Dublin. I think | :50:29. | :50:32. | |
this is a very real issue. The substance cannot wait for years to | :50:33. | :50:37. | |
find out if perhaps the UK Government will... | :50:38. | :50:42. | |
It can wait for a couple of years can't it? Many members of the public | :50:43. | :50:51. | |
will say, we don't know what this argument is about, let's wait and | :50:52. | :50:55. | |
see what happens after Brexit and if you are right, we'll support you in | :50:56. | :50:58. | |
another referendum but we don't want to have one that soon. You don't | :50:59. | :51:02. | |
seem to have any arguments are doing that either. Only today, we've got | :51:03. | :51:08. | |
some fantastic results for the growth of the exports of the | :51:09. | :51:14. | |
Scottish sector. ?156 million increase in the food exports. 153 on | :51:15. | :51:21. | |
food and drink to Europe. If we don't know what the standards of the | :51:22. | :51:25. | |
exports of our food companies exporting into the EU are by the | :51:26. | :51:31. | |
time we leave it in 2019, that puts our food exports at a disadvantage. | :51:32. | :51:36. | |
There are jobs dependent on our food industry and a successful industry, | :51:37. | :51:39. | |
we want that to continue, which is why we have to have the clarity | :51:40. | :51:41. | |
we want that to continue, which is about whether the UK Government will | :51:42. | :51:45. | |
still have any arrangement to allow access to the single market or | :51:46. | :51:48. | |
preferably membership of the single market. We've set out compromise | :51:49. | :51:54. | |
proposals and we are taking the substance of the Scottish economy | :51:55. | :51:57. | |
very seriously which is why the timetable set out by the First | :51:58. | :51:58. | |
Minister is very sensible. timetable set out by the First | :51:59. | :52:07. | |
running out of time. Can we be clear, if you at some point have | :52:08. | :52:10. | |
another referendum campaign, the SNP's policy will be for Scotland to | :52:11. | :52:18. | |
rejoin the European Union as a full member? Yes, our policy is... And to | :52:19. | :52:26. | |
rejoin the common fisheries policy? In terms of our negotiations, we | :52:27. | :52:30. | |
want to be in the best possible position and that is why we need to | :52:31. | :52:33. | |
have the referendum before the UK leaves. We have to leave it there. | :52:34. | :52:37. | |
We will leave you to your loch, not With me now are the Scottish Deputy | :52:38. | :52:43. | |
Leader of the party that's said No to another independence referendum | :52:44. | :52:46. | |
now and the co-convenor of the party without whom the SNP will lose | :52:47. | :52:49. | |
Tuesday's vote in Holyrood. What... Will you vote for another | :52:50. | :53:03. | |
referendum? We decided as long ago as October to call for an order. | :53:04. | :53:13. | |
What is your mandate? As a political party? Our mandate for policy comes | :53:14. | :53:22. | |
from our members. You stood last year and in your manifesto, the | :53:23. | :53:25. | |
entire basis for the SNP saying they have a mandate for another | :53:26. | :53:28. | |
referendum, you said nothing about having another referendum. We didn't | :53:29. | :53:35. | |
anticipate there would be... Like most people... Let me read it to | :53:36. | :53:40. | |
you, you said if there is another referendum, it should come about by | :53:41. | :53:42. | |
the will of the people and referendum, it should come about by | :53:43. | :53:46. | |
driven by calculations of party political advantage. Where is the | :53:47. | :53:50. | |
will of the people for another referendum? We suggested a citizens | :53:51. | :53:58. | |
initiative. Where is it? It was intended to be a way in which we | :53:59. | :54:04. | |
could judge the appetites... Can I answer the question. What we | :54:05. | :54:15. | |
suggested was a way of... "It should come about by the will of the | :54:16. | :54:21. | |
people." We never suggested the Scottish Parliament should be | :54:22. | :54:24. | |
stripped of its ability to make a decision. One way of judging public | :54:25. | :54:31. | |
appetite... The reality has changed. In June last year, the world changed | :54:32. | :54:38. | |
around us. I know that, the entire basis of the SNP's case for another | :54:39. | :54:42. | |
referendum is that they have what they call a cast iron mandate | :54:43. | :54:46. | |
because of what they said in the manifesto they put to the people of | :54:47. | :54:50. | |
Scotland only last year. Your manifesto doesn't give you any | :54:51. | :54:54. | |
mandate to vote at the moment for another referendum. Arguably, if you | :54:55. | :54:59. | |
vote, you are in breach of your manifesto. I do not think that. | :55:00. | :55:04. | |
Where is the will of the people? We're not in breach of the | :55:05. | :55:07. | |
possession our party members decided. You no mandate from the | :55:08. | :55:14. | |
people who voted last year which is the reason you are in Parliament in | :55:15. | :55:24. | |
the first place. This is not just about the Greens. The entire basis | :55:25. | :55:28. | |
of the Scottish Government saying it has a mandate is because of the cast | :55:29. | :55:33. | |
iron mandate it has, they can only win this vote this week with your | :55:34. | :55:38. | |
support and you are arguably in breach of your manifesto and | :55:39. | :55:41. | |
certainly, there is no mandate in your manifesto so from precisely the | :55:42. | :55:46. | |
reasons the Scottish Government say this is legitimate, you are going to | :55:47. | :55:50. | |
make it illegitimate. When you have an election, the winning party has a | :55:51. | :55:53. | |
responsibility to implement its manifesto. A party in opposition | :55:54. | :56:00. | |
needs to look at its policy and in June last year, the world changed | :56:01. | :56:04. | |
around us and our party debated how to respond to that and our members | :56:05. | :56:09. | |
voted in favour of a motion. You got the press release just like everyone | :56:10. | :56:18. | |
else. You ought to either may be not to vote against it this week but the | :56:19. | :56:24. | |
very least, you ought to abstain. Given the way the parliamentary | :56:25. | :56:28. | |
arithmetic works, abstaining would be functionally equivalent, the SNP | :56:29. | :56:33. | |
will gain a majority in the Scottish Parliament on any issue if anyone | :56:34. | :56:37. | |
opposition party abstained so are abstaining basically says we are in | :56:38. | :56:44. | |
favour of... Do you think... It's not just about the Greens, the | :56:45. | :56:48. | |
entire argument of the SNP is that they have a cast iron mandate but | :56:49. | :56:51. | |
entire argument of the SNP is that they don't. Not if they are relying | :56:52. | :56:55. | |
on the support of a party which doesn't have any mandate. I think | :56:56. | :57:00. | |
Patrick is dancing on the head of a pin. The referendum was eventually | :57:01. | :57:06. | |
supported by 92% of the people and... To have a referendum. A super | :57:07. | :57:12. | |
majority of every single MSP in the Parliament voting for it. That | :57:13. | :57:15. | |
consent does not exist at this point. We are told this morning only | :57:16. | :57:22. | |
32% support it. Do you think relying on the Greens affects its | :57:23. | :57:28. | |
legitimacy? I do. In any event, I don't think the Scottish Government | :57:29. | :57:31. | |
has ignored these resolutions of the Scottish Parliament over the last | :57:32. | :57:35. | |
six weeks, health and education, the funding Council, the police. Nicola | :57:36. | :57:45. | |
Sturgeon has three times ignored the Scottish Parliament. What exactly | :57:46. | :57:51. | |
are the Conservatives saying? If you are saying, let's do the Brexit | :57:52. | :57:53. | |
negotiations and see what happens and then have a referendum after | :57:54. | :57:58. | |
that, I think some people will understand that. There seem to be | :57:59. | :58:02. | |
some attempts by Conservatives like Ruth Davidson to say, we mean, they | :58:03. | :58:06. | |
would have to be a period of several years until we see how Brexit runs | :58:07. | :58:11. | |
out and that is not reasonable. The Prime Minister has said it is. We | :58:12. | :58:16. | |
have to leave the European Union and we then have to see how Scotland are | :58:17. | :58:18. | |
settling down in the new arrangement. They can then be a | :58:19. | :58:23. | |
referendum at the point there is clear public support for one and | :58:24. | :58:27. | |
that is the crucial point. There is none at the moment. Many people | :58:28. | :58:32. | |
watching this will say, we can see the logic saying let's do the Brexit | :58:33. | :58:36. | |
deal first but now they are changing the rules and saying there has to be | :58:37. | :58:42. | |
a majority in the opinion polls and we have to have several years after | :58:43. | :58:46. | |
Brexit. What you are doing is trying to put this off until the 2020 | :58:47. | :58:50. | |
Scottish election. I'm saying what Nicola Sturgeon said would that be | :58:51. | :58:57. | |
it would be wrong to ask for the Scottish people to vote in another | :58:58. | :59:01. | |
referendum until there is evidence they had changed their minds and | :59:02. | :59:06. | |
that is in there. What do you think of that? This idea of putting it off | :59:07. | :59:10. | |
until some years after Brexit has happened is essentially saying we | :59:11. | :59:16. | |
will drag you off a cliff and let's wait and see what happens. The | :59:17. | :59:22. | |
consequences of leaving the European Union are so profoundly damaging | :59:23. | :59:26. | |
economically, politically, socially, environmentally, that this... I | :59:27. | :59:30. | |
wanted to get you on the democracy of this because some people will | :59:31. | :59:34. | |
say, it's reasonable to wait until after Brexit. But some people will | :59:35. | :59:39. | |
say, if the Scottish Parliament is then denied after that for a period | :59:40. | :59:43. | |
of years, this looks like the Conservatives are just manoeuvring | :59:44. | :59:47. | |
so there will be another Scottish election, the SNP might lose the | :59:48. | :59:51. | |
majority they have with you and they might lose that. So this is just | :59:52. | :59:57. | |
party political manoeuvring. That manoeuvring is clearly part of their | :59:58. | :00:00. | |
party political manoeuvring. That calculation. The Democratic argument | :00:01. | :00:02. | |
is clear, what's going to happen for the next couple of years. This | :00:03. | :00:06. | |
period of uncertainty is the result of the Brexit shambles going on. The | :00:07. | :00:11. | |
first 18 months of it, we will see a government that we did not choose | :00:12. | :00:15. | |
negotiating with EU institutions on which we will no longer be | :00:16. | :00:20. | |
represented. For a Brexit path Scotland did not vote for. After | :00:21. | :00:24. | |
that, six months in which every other EU member state gets a chance | :00:25. | :00:29. | |
to ratify it. In this process, critically important to this | :00:30. | :00:32. | |
country, Scottish voters are the only people in the whole of Europe | :00:33. | :00:35. | |
who will not have a voice and that is unacceptable. Will you work for a | :00:36. | :00:41. | |
better argument for your mandate between now and Wednesday, it will | :00:42. | :00:47. | |
have to be more convincing? My party mix of policy democratically on the | :00:48. | :00:50. | |
conference floor and our members vote for it. We took a motion and... | :00:51. | :00:57. | |
On the contents of Brexit because Brexit changed the world. When this | :00:58. | :01:03. | |
row develops, will you say, isn't it reasonable to say, from your point | :01:04. | :01:08. | |
of view, not before Brexit, but after Brexit, yes, we recognise the | :01:09. | :01:12. | |
Scottish Parliament has legitimacy? If the people of Scotland want | :01:13. | :01:18. | |
another referendum... That's what the First Minister and others said, | :01:19. | :01:22. | |
they had to be clear, public expression of support for another | :01:23. | :01:26. | |
referendum and it's not there. Why does everyone else in Europe gets to | :01:27. | :01:30. | |
choose the country's future except the people of Scotland? I know you | :01:31. | :01:33. | |
want to carry on but we cannot. Sitting patiently in Edinburgh | :01:34. | :01:37. | |
through the programme so far is constitutional expert | :01:38. | :01:40. | |
Professor Michael Keating - Just on this question of the | :01:41. | :01:51. | |
European Union, are we now accepting that Scotland will one way or | :01:52. | :01:55. | |
another, as to says, leave the European Union or is they ate | :01:56. | :02:01. | |
possibility if there was a referendum towards the end of the | :02:02. | :02:04. | |
Brexit process, Scotland could somehow stay in? If there was a | :02:05. | :02:10. | |
referendum before Brexit occurred, it would be possible to try to get a | :02:11. | :02:14. | |
bridging arrangement and eventually get into the European Union. The | :02:15. | :02:19. | |
danger of having a referendum after we've left, we will be out of the | :02:20. | :02:23. | |
European Union, into whatever arrangement the UK negotiated and it | :02:24. | :02:27. | |
would be difficult to pick. One halfway has suggested, is Scotland | :02:28. | :02:32. | |
could become independent going into the European economic area, which | :02:33. | :02:35. | |
would keep it in the single market, along with Norway, maybe it would | :02:36. | :02:42. | |
then be able to go for EU membership that would take time. There is an | :02:43. | :02:47. | |
argument from your point of view, if people are in favour of | :02:48. | :02:50. | |
independence, there is an argument for having a referendum before the | :02:51. | :02:53. | |
Brexit process is finished and then saying, let's have some transitional | :02:54. | :02:59. | |
deal for Scotland? That would be possible, that is technically | :03:00. | :03:03. | |
possible. Independence itself would be complicated and take some time. | :03:04. | :03:07. | |
We will have the difficult negotiations anyway. This European | :03:08. | :03:13. | |
economic area alternative is being talked about a lot more recently. As | :03:14. | :03:19. | |
a transition thing, not as an alternative? Some people might see | :03:20. | :03:24. | |
it as a permanent arrangement. The downside is that you have to accept | :03:25. | :03:28. | |
all of the policies but you don't get any say. The advantages, we | :03:29. | :03:32. | |
would keep the single market, we wouldn't be in the agricultural and | :03:33. | :03:36. | |
fisheries policies and we could negotiate a free arrangement with | :03:37. | :03:45. | |
the United Kingdom. I'm interested in your take on this week's | :03:46. | :03:52. | |
stand-off. One assumes Theresa May, I may be wrong, but for the sake of | :03:53. | :03:58. | |
the argument, that she won't have a section 30 odd and if in a few | :03:59. | :04:02. | |
years' time, we want another referendum after Brexit, let's talk | :04:03. | :04:08. | |
about it. What happens, anything the Scottish Government can do? They | :04:09. | :04:13. | |
could try to stage a unilateral referendum, try to find a form of | :04:14. | :04:18. | |
words that would get around the courts. There was a few years ago | :04:19. | :04:23. | |
talk about a question of whether the Scottish Government should seek new | :04:24. | :04:26. | |
powers to negotiate Scottish independence. If that got through, | :04:27. | :04:29. | |
the problem would be political because they referendum is only | :04:30. | :04:33. | |
convincing if both sides participate. This has been the case | :04:34. | :04:37. | |
in Quebec in the past, the federal government did not recognise the | :04:38. | :04:43. | |
referendum but never the less, they participated. | :04:44. | :04:50. | |
Just to clarify the law, the power to hold a referendum or not is | :04:51. | :04:56. | |
reserved to Westminster? That's quite clear, the Scottish Government | :04:57. | :04:59. | |
has agreed that in its consultation paper on the referendum. Whether | :05:00. | :05:04. | |
some other form of words could be found to make it legal, I do not | :05:05. | :05:07. | |
know. It has been tried in Catalonia a couple of years ago and didn't | :05:08. | :05:09. | |
really get anywhere. The question a couple of years ago and didn't | :05:10. | :05:14. | |
was so unclear legal position was unclear and the did not turn out and | :05:15. | :05:21. | |
did not really resolve anything. I Act on that cheerful note of | :05:22. | :05:23. | |
positivity, Michael Keating, we will have to leave it there. | :05:24. | :05:25. | |
Now it's time to take a look back and at events coming | :05:26. | :05:28. | |
Joining me this week are the Sunday times Scotland columnist | :05:29. | :05:33. | |
and the SNP's former head of communications - | :05:34. | :05:36. | |
Kevin Pringle and Herald columnist and former advisor | :05:37. | :05:37. | |
to Alistair Darling - Catherine MacLeod. | :05:38. | :05:45. | |
The obvious first question is, are you going to get involved in another | :05:46. | :05:56. | |
campaign if one happens? I think what will happen. I think people | :05:57. | :05:59. | |
across Scotland would love to be involved in such a campaign on both | :06:00. | :06:03. | |
sides. It is a question of when, rather than if. That seems clear, | :06:04. | :06:07. | |
even from what Theresa May said last week. The difficulty she got into | :06:08. | :06:12. | |
was that it looks very much like blocking the referendum, in terms of | :06:13. | :06:18. | |
blocking... Your carefully avoiding my question. Do you want to get | :06:19. | :06:24. | |
involved? Of course. But we are in the very early stages and we are in | :06:25. | :06:27. | |
a battle of hearts and minds over who will win the banner for | :06:28. | :06:34. | |
reasonableness. Which side sounds more reasonable? It looks | :06:35. | :06:40. | |
unreasonable, I think, in terms of the timescale the First Minister set | :06:41. | :06:46. | |
out, to knock back the request. It was accepted last year by | :06:47. | :06:52. | |
conservatives in Scotland that it would be wrong for the UK Government | :06:53. | :06:58. | |
to block a referendum. She's not here to defend herself but with | :06:59. | :07:01. | |
Davidson would say I am not standing against a referendum but I do not | :07:02. | :07:04. | |
agree that there should be one in the near future. I think that the | :07:05. | :07:10. | |
campaign is for who can win the contest for reasonableness. That is | :07:11. | :07:13. | |
what we'll see when you next few days and weeks. I was a very | :07:14. | :07:17. | |
convoluted answer to the question, are you going to get back involved? | :07:18. | :07:22. | |
Do you have a shorter answer? Well, if there is a campaign, and I am not | :07:23. | :07:26. | |
convinced there will be, but I would get involved. I am surprised that | :07:27. | :07:31. | |
Kevin said that as an appetite for another campaign. He mixes in | :07:32. | :07:38. | |
different circles from me. He said it was a battle for hearts and | :07:39. | :07:45. | |
minds. He said there were a lot of people on both sides looking forward | :07:46. | :07:49. | |
to the campaign. But that is not in my experience. A lot of people feel | :07:50. | :08:01. | |
referendumed out. They would be dismayed at the prospect of another | :08:02. | :08:08. | |
referendum campaign. If you want to hear what Alistair Darling thinks, | :08:09. | :08:10. | |
you would have to ask him. But what I do think is that there are dozens | :08:11. | :08:21. | |
of meetings going on in London between officials in Scotland and | :08:22. | :08:27. | |
officials in the UK Government and I think the less that we do to | :08:28. | :08:32. | |
undermine the UK's position in the negotiations with Brussels, the | :08:33. | :08:37. | |
better. Everybody, both sides of the border, want to have a tether free | :08:38. | :08:41. | |
trade agreement, to protect workers' rights, to look after EU citizens | :08:42. | :08:48. | |
and British citizens abroad. We should focus on that, not on whether | :08:49. | :08:52. | |
or not we want to break up the UK. Playing the politics of this will be | :08:53. | :08:56. | |
interesting, Kevin. There is this odd thing is that where everyone | :08:57. | :08:59. | |
knows about the SNP will say our timetable is reasonable, actually | :09:00. | :09:04. | |
they will look for any excuse for a referendum. And everyone knows that | :09:05. | :09:09. | |
everyone who is against the referendum would like to never have | :09:10. | :09:12. | |
a referendum again. It will be politically how you cut through | :09:13. | :09:18. | |
that. Yes, I think opinion is quite balanced on this question. Even | :09:19. | :09:22. | |
looking at the Sunday Times poll, the idea of having a referendum by | :09:23. | :09:26. | |
the time of the Brexit negotiations being over, which is actually | :09:27. | :09:29. | |
October, 2018, according to the European Commissioner's chief | :09:30. | :09:34. | |
negotiator, Michel Barnier, that actually reflect the First | :09:35. | :09:36. | |
Minister's timetable for a referendum. It is quite balanced. | :09:37. | :09:45. | |
Probably about 50-50. 52% was suggested by one hole. What about | :09:46. | :09:55. | |
the idea from Jackson Carlaw that the Conservatives are raising, that | :09:56. | :10:00. | |
there should be a bedding in period, it is not just about voting to leave | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
and that is it. Let's wait and see if the dire things the Nicola | :10:06. | :10:08. | |
Sturgeon says would arise from that actually do arise or not. Because | :10:09. | :10:13. | |
they can't point the way the economy has performed since friends and say, | :10:14. | :10:17. | |
look, all these forecasts of gloom and doom turned out to be wrong so | :10:18. | :10:23. | |
far, maybe they will happen, but let's wait to see. But I don't think | :10:24. | :10:28. | |
it can be open-ended. There was a famous anecdote where someone was | :10:29. | :10:35. | |
asked about the impact of something in the 1970s and he said it was too | :10:36. | :10:40. | |
early to tell. I think the point of judgment surely would be around | :10:41. | :10:42. | |
about the autumn of 2018, when we know that parameters and detail of | :10:43. | :10:48. | |
Brexit negotiations. And also, as a matter of democracy, given a mandate | :10:49. | :10:53. | |
that was secured in the election last year obviously applies to its | :10:54. | :10:56. | |
Holyrood parliament, I think is a matter of democracy, the question | :10:57. | :11:03. | |
needs to be passed before the end of this Parliament... The Greens | :11:04. | :11:08. | |
arguably do not have a mandate. As Patrick said, even if the Greens | :11:09. | :11:13. | |
abstained, the SNP majority carries anyway. There will be a Scottish | :11:14. | :11:16. | |
Parliament vote on Wednesday and will formally call for a referendum | :11:17. | :11:22. | |
within the timescale of autumn 2018, Spring 2019 but I detected from the | :11:23. | :11:25. | |
First Minister's Speech yesterday that she is prepared to negotiate | :11:26. | :11:33. | |
about that. What do you make of this, Catherine? I think Nicola's | :11:34. | :11:36. | |
position is understandable, she can enter politics to the UK and that is | :11:37. | :11:41. | |
what she wants do. What Patrick was saying, I do not understand at all. | :11:42. | :11:48. | |
Here is a party, a Green Party, who, the environment should be their | :11:49. | :11:49. | |
raison d' tre for being in politics, raison d'etre for being in politics, | :11:50. | :11:54. | |
they have got a position, Scotland has a position, the UK has a | :11:55. | :11:57. | |
position to negotiate the best for the environment in Scotland and yet | :11:58. | :12:00. | |
they seem to be undermining and ready to undermine the negotiations | :12:01. | :12:03. | |
that are going on at the moment. The timescale? I don't know. I think | :12:04. | :12:09. | |
2018 will be too early because people in Scotland will be being | :12:10. | :12:21. | |
asked to vote for a pig in a poke... Will you be better to leave it for a | :12:22. | :12:26. | |
few years after that? None of us know what we're voting for. People | :12:27. | :12:30. | |
talk about hard Brexit, soft Brexit, these are meaningless. Theresa May, | :12:31. | :12:37. | |
I am not here to defend her, but she will be wanting the best Brexit | :12:38. | :12:41. | |
outcome for the UK. What people mean by hard or soft, I have no idea. In | :12:42. | :12:49. | |
2018, if that is when they think we should ask, what will be the promise | :12:50. | :12:53. | |
to the Scottish people and when the team? Before anybody has any more | :12:54. | :12:56. | |
votes, I think that is what was wrong with the original... What | :12:57. | :13:00. | |
about this conservative ideology of a few years to see if it actually | :13:01. | :13:06. | |
works? I can see sense in that. It is better to know what people are | :13:07. | :13:09. | |
voting for to give people a chance to have a sensible vote on their | :13:10. | :13:12. | |
future rather than putting your finger in the wind. There will be | :13:13. | :13:24. | |
another Scottish election in 2021, so the mandate runs out, so they | :13:25. | :13:31. | |
would before then? Yes. The mandate was achieved for this Parliament and | :13:32. | :13:34. | |
that is when it needs to happen. Thank you for joining us. I have a | :13:35. | :13:38. | |
feeling this debate may continue. That's all for this week, | :13:39. | :13:41. | |
I'm back at the same time next week. | :13:42. | :13:45. |