29/09/2013 Sunday Politics South East


29/09/2013

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BBC 1 888

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With me are a trio of top political commentators. All three will be

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tweeting their thoughts, or in some cases just their thought through the

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show, using the hashtag #bbcsp. cases just their thought through the

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Conservative Party conference gets afternoon. We have already been

:01:55.:02:01.

bombarded with a series of policy announcements, a tax break for

:02:01.:02:06.

married couples of up to £200 per year, more money on life extending

:02:06.:02:09.

cancer treatments and, last night, the news that the second stage of

:02:09.:02:13.

the Chancellor's Help To Buy scheme brought forward from the start of

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next year. David Cameron says it is all about helping hard-working

:02:18.:02:24.

people. Right now, you can't get, 95% mortgage. That means a typical

:02:24.:02:32.

family with two people earning 20,000, 25,000, they are being

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asked, to buy an average house, 20,000, 25,000, they are being

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mortgage payment, but they can't get the mortgage. They can't buy their

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flat or house. As Prime Minister, I'm not going to stand back while

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people's aspirations to get on the housing ladder, to own their own

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flat or home, is being trashed. housing ladder, to own their own

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is why we need to act. A predictable attempt by party leadership to

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kick-start the conference with eye-catching policies. The polls

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show a big bounce for Ed Miliband and the Labour Party, with decent

:03:05.:03:10.

numbers for UKIP. What do party councillors as they travel to their

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For the Conservatives this weekend, conference, and as a scene setter we

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asked ComRes to survey councillors are Finland and Wales. Councillors

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asked ComRes to survey councillors like Tom, packing for conference at

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home in Wellingborough. Immigration is an issue for him. He thinks there

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are pros and cons. But we found is an issue for him. He thinks there

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immigration has had a negative reflects into this wider issue of

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our relationship with Europe. People possible influx of ovarian and

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Romania emigrants. Obviously the issue of Europe is very big. --

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Ukrainian. His colleagues in Corby are worried about the rise of the UK

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Independence Party. In our survey, nearly a quarter of Conservative

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councillors thought that their party should make a pact with UKIP. The

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concern is, yes, will they take If that happens, maybe we don't

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concern is, yes, will they take back in. Maybe a partnership is

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concern is, yes, will they take way to go. It depends what they

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concern is, yes, will they take talking about them. A pact? Depends

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what they say, anything is possible. What would you like to see? Ideally,

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from my point of view, a national pact. David Cameron arrived in

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Manchester last night. Around the same time as these activists from

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London. I broke the news to them that in our survey just 26% of Tory

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councillors think that the prime ministers in touch with the lives of

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ordinary people. The same at all Conservatives, you don't judge

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people by their background. It's not where they come from, it is where

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they are going to. It is not a where they come from, it is where

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problem that he is a bit on the where they come from, it is where

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side? Cull you might describe him like that, I would not use those

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words. Explain your T-shirt, it like that, I would not use those

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phrase that a senior Cameron person is alleged to have used about you?

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It is a humorous way of letting is alleged to have used about you?

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party now that we are here to say important. We are not going away any

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time soon. A sentiment you will important. We are not going away any

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a lot at this conference, because just 22% of councillors in our

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survey said that David Cameron was any good at listening to the people

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that work hard for his party. That was Adam. Joining me now from the

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Conservative Party conference in William Hague. Welcome to the Sunday

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Politics. Good morning. Over one in five Tory councillors in our survey

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support a pact with UKIP at the five Tory councillors in our survey

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election. Why do you think that five Tory councillors in our survey

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If it is one in five, it means a large majority did not want a pact

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with UKIP at the next election. large majority did not want a pact

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have noticed that UKIP, in local elections, has been receiving votes,

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some of which would otherwise have been for the Conservatives. I think

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we have to make sure that people election they are choosing between a

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Conservative and Labour Government, as David Cameron as Prime Minister

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or Ed Miliband. If people want to get a referendum on Europe, the

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or Ed Miliband. If people want to way to do that is to have David

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Cameron as Prime Minister. I think a Cameron as Prime Minister. I think a

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general election is different from the local government perspective. It

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is pretty unusual, some might say unprecedented, for a large chunk of

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one of the big parties in this country to want to go into coalition

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one of the big parties in this with a smaller party before an

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happened? Looking at your survey, three times as many didn't want

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happened? Looking at your survey, with statistics, you can highlight

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it whichever way around you want to. The point is, we are not having

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pacts with other parties, electoral pacts with other parties. You rule

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it out? That is not going to happen. What we do want is to have a pact

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it out? That is not going to happen. with the voters, if you like, as we

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have often done in the Conservative Party. We have won over the voters

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of other parties to support our policies and Prime Minister. That is

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important with those people that say important with those people that say

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they want to vote for UKIP. By default, they would produce a Labour

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government in the exact opposite of many of the things they intend,

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government in the exact opposite of Conservative and decide to vote

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government in the exact opposite of UKIP instead in a general election.

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That could help to produce a Labour government. The chairman of the

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That could help to produce a Labour committee, the elected voice of

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Conservative backbenchers, he says your party should spell out what had

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once back from the European Union before next year's European actions.

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Do you agree? We will be spelling out some things in the European

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elections. I will be talking about this later on today. For instance,

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European treaties the concept of ever closer union, a concept that in

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believed in. We would like that ever closer union, a concept that in

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consequences that would flow from that. We will be setting out the

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examples and principles of the changes we want to say. Certainly

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over the next year, not only before the European actions but the general

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election, if you are saying, let have the exact list of anything

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election, if you are saying, let negotiate, that is difficult because

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there will be a negotiation of a new deal in Europe if David Cameron

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there will be a negotiation of a new election. To some extent, that has

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to be negotiated. Only 11% of your own councillors feel that people in

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their area think that George Osborne is in touch with ordinary people.

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is not for me to explain why people say what they say in surveys. The

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important thing is what we are delivering for the country. What

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George Osborne is delivering his renewed economic growth. 1.4 million

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new jobs in the private sector, renewed economic growth. 1.4 million

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for hard-working people, by reducing the tax for 25 million of them.

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for hard-working people, by reducing Help To Buy scheme that we are

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highlighting today. That is what really matters to people, actually,

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I think you will find. Let's talk about helping ordinary people. Ed

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Miliband is guilty freeze energy prices. What are you going to do

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about energy prices, we already asked energy companies to put people

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on their lowest tariffs. This has not been amended. -- implemented.

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Why not? This is going to happen within this government. It is going

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to happen within this government when the... Why hasn't it happened

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now? People are suffering now from rising energy prices. It has not

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happened because my colleagues have been implimenting it. In the case of

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Ed Miliband's policy, if you are asking why it has not yet happened

:11:07.:11:10.

under this Government, it didn't even survive a few our's scrutiny in

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opposition. In a few hours he had to concede that if there was a big

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change in oil prices then the policy would not work. The trouble is,

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change in oil prices then the policy would dry up some of the investment

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in the energy industry. I don't think it is a credible promise.

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in the energy industry. I don't a party that presided over council

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tax bills doubling in the next a party that presided over council

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tax bills doubling in the next government, -- last government,

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tax bills doubling in the next not very credible. Why is George

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Osborne going against the European Well, we don't want to see the

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European treaties used in a way Well, we don't want to see the

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they should not be used. It's not necessarily over this particular

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issue. It is over the power that the European Union has over our lives

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and over this country. Can the bankers look after themselves? We

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should be able to decide those things in our own country. We have

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never signed up to such matters things in our own country. We have

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European institutions. If you allow one thing that wasn't meant to be

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decided to be decided, you find one thing that wasn't meant to be

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there are another ten or 20 things that affect many other people. We

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are very vigilant about what we that affect many other people. We

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competence creep, with the European Union taking more powers than it was

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meant to have. That is one of the referendum, do want a new deal in

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Europe. That is what we intend to institution, ICAP, fined for fixing

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the LIBOR rates. The founder of institution, ICAP, fined for fixing

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company has donated £5 million to your party. Shouldn't you give it

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back? Aren't you ashamed to accept that money? He has donated his own

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Which he made out of ICAP. As people have to other parties, people are

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free to do that and they should have to other parties, people are

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free to do that. I am not aware have to other parties, people are

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any plan for that to be repaid. Because you can't afford to. Let's

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recap this. We have seen Tory MPs parrot propaganda lines from the

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energy companies this week. We have the Chancellor going to court to

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fight for unlimited banker bonuses. We have a top Tory donor the centre

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fight for unlimited banker bonuses. of yet another city scandal. Ed

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Miliband is right when he says you lot are on the side of the vested

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interests so the rich and powerful, isn't he? Well, again, look at the

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record. I just did! 1.4 million extra jobs in the private sector, 25

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million people with a tax cut, a Help To Buy scheme which is going to

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help so many people, particularly young people have the house that

:13:56.:14:03.

future. Council tax bills held down, welfare reform so that it pays to

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work. Actually, this is a government achieving things for hard-working

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While President Laugharne he's talking about peace, the Iranians

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weapons programme. -- is talking. It would be hard to say from week

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to week whether it is speeding up continuing with it. That is why

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to week whether it is speeding up say the new message - the new words

:14:45.:14:47.

- from Iranian leadership are very welcome. I said that to the Foreign

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Minister in New York over the last few days but it is the actions that

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will count. At the moment, the nuclear programme continues. We

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negotiations on that and that will be a very important test as to

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whether actions will match the words. When will we know it if we

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are being strung along? He has strung as a long in the past as

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are being strung along? He has nuclear weapons negotiator. When

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will we know if he is not just doing that again? Over the next

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will we know if he is not just weeks, it will be a very important

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time. He has said there should be more transparency over the Iranian

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transparent in many regards at the moment. The atomic agency is asking

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for information that is not being given. One test is, in the coming

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information? The information that the international of authority is

:15:47.:15:51.

asking for about their nuclear programme. We will be able to form

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a view of this in the coming weeks or months. It is important we test

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their new willingness to talk to us important to find out whether they

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asking, is the nuclear programme really continuing? Are they really

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negotiations and offer something Speaking of being strung along,

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what sanctions would President Assad face if, in six months - the

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Year, Syria still has a chemical weapons arsenal. In the resolution

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we voted through the UN Security Council on Friday night, is the

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Council will take measures under Chapter seven of the UN Charter

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Council will take measures under the event of non-compliance. Does

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that allow full force? I did not catch that. Does that allow for

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Security Council resolution about Iraq, which most people concluded

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in not allow full force. It does not specify that. It talks about

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terms seven of the charter. That is a message of the whole UN Security

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Council that there will be measures - there will be consequences - if

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the Assad regime does not comply. has a big commitment. I have spent

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counterpart over the last week. Russia has said, this is something

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you will have to do. We will work with Russia and others very closely

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to check there is compliance will this resolution. Given the progress

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that has been made, you must be very glad that the British House of

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Commons stopped your rash to force against Syria. -- rush. The reason

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credible threat of military action. has happened is because there was a

:18:08.:18:14.

credible threat of military action. President Obama did not get it

:18:14.:18:14.

through Congress. They have not President Obama did not get it

:18:14.:18:20.

the vote in Congress. There is no other explanation as to why the

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policy changed. It was because there was a debate about military

:18:25.:18:29.

action in the West that the policy changed on theirs. That is why it

:18:29.:18:35.

changed. We were not in a rush for military action. The boat put to

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the House of Commons was to have inspectors reported. It was before

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Russian and Syrian policy changed. We need to make sure that works

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Russian and Syrian policy changed. practice. Thank you. What do you

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make about this rushing forward with the help to buy scheme which

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was meant to start next year - coming forward mad to the next

:19:09.:19:14.

couple of weeks? I think it is a Government having an interest in

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mortgage lending. -- there is a fundamental problem. It should have

:19:28.:19:33.

been set much lower to exclude London and the South East where

:19:33.:19:38.

houses are dramatically overvalued. Many economists think freezing

:19:38.:19:44.

energy prices is a terrible policy. These policies can be popular. If

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you have no chance of getting a deposit, the Government will make

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Osborne tried every single lever. It looked like he could not do

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anything to get the economy moving. It is moving. They have pulled it

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forward and there are signs it is recovering. The reason why they

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forward and there are signs it is doing this is they want to show

:20:14.:20:17.

this week at the conference there are real sort of understandable

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issues you can explain very simply that really up going to improve

:20:21.:20:25.

people's lives. The Conservatives Miliband's speech last week. The

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nuts. Much more cautious and -- language about the energy price

:20:34.:20:49.

freeze. They are nervous that Ed Miliband may be touching a nerve on

:20:49.:20:54.

that one. What we will get this week, I suggest, his Tory populism

:20:54.:21:02.

to counter Miliband populism. I think we will see that and it will

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be a mistake. As long as it is think we will see that and it will

:21:04.:21:10.

about The Picture, they are on relatively strong ground. When the

:21:10.:21:18.

political conversation changes to more fiddly things, particularities

:21:18.:21:19.

standards, things that are some more fiddly things, particularities

:21:19.:21:26.

below that picture, I do not think they can win a bidding war with

:21:26.:21:30.

below that picture, I do not think Labour Party. It is about borrowing

:21:30.:21:31.

against a party that stands for Labour Party. It is about borrowing

:21:31.:21:43.

before the Labour conference, which is unemployment, GDP growth and

:21:43.:21:48.

before the Labour conference, which warming economic picture. That does

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not pay energy bills. Does not sound that the Tories have anything

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not pay energy bills. Does not to counter the price freeze. --

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not pay energy bills. Does not does not sound. They have had a

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week to think about a great attack line and they do not add anything.

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the credibility test. Ed Miliband said, if there were a big spike

:22:09.:22:32.

the credibility test. Ed Miliband energy prices, he would not be able

:22:32.:22:33.

it is about credibility. Being seen as serious and grown-up is worth

:22:33.:22:52.

it is about credibility. Being seen more than any burst of popularity.

:22:52.:22:52.

with the election campaign, it My worry about the announcement

:22:52.:23:01.

with the election campaign, it begins to lose credibility, begins

:23:01.:23:06.

to seem a banana republic. It looks a lot less wise than it did last

:23:06.:23:12.

week. I disagree. Every time energy bills go up and they will continue

:23:12.:23:13.

to go up, it will be a reminder bills go up and they will continue

:23:13.:23:18.

how much people are being hit in the pockets. People know by energy

:23:18.:23:24.

prices are going up. There is a structural change in the world that

:23:24.:23:28.

was not there before - China and India. These energy companies may

:23:28.:23:33.

be making huge profit but, at the end of the day, what is driving

:23:33.:23:39.

be making huge profit but, at the the cost of fuel is China and India.

:23:39.:23:42.

Ed Miliband, great man that he is, I am not sure he can take on the

:23:42.:23:47.

people Sammir on that one. How dare Labour's Conference in Brighton

:23:47.:23:56.

last week. Dogged by criticism over the summer of his leadership style

:23:56.:23:59.

and lack of policies, Mr Miliband tried to demonstrate his strength

:23:59.:24:02.

of character with a series of bold announcements, and attempted to

:24:02.:24:04.

position himself on the side of ordinary Brits. The Labour leader

:24:04.:24:11.

told party members he would stand up to the strong and take on the

:24:11.:24:13.

vested interests that hold back up to the strong and take on the

:24:13.:24:17.

economy. In a speech in which he jokingly referred to himself as

:24:17.:24:21.

economy. In a speech in which he action hero, Mr Miliband promised

:24:21.:24:21.

to switch the forthcoming business action hero, Mr Miliband promised

:24:21.:24:26.

tax cut from large firms to smaller businesses. He said he would force

:24:26.:24:30.

big firms to train at an apprentice every time they bring in a worker

:24:30.:24:35.

from outside the EU. He hinted that increasing the minimum wage would

:24:35.:24:40.

be increased. He bowed to take on developers with a use it or lose it

:24:40.:24:47.

threat to landowners and pledged to build 200,000 homes each year by

:24:47.:24:52.

2020. He promised to freeze energy prices and reset the energy market.

:24:52.:24:57.

The next Labour government will freeze gas and electricity prices

:24:57.:25:06.

provoked a rash of headlines - hailing the return of red Ed macro.

:25:06.:25:12.

It has also given him a spike in the polls. And Labour's Shadow

:25:12.:25:14.

Ed Miliband says, our energy market is broken and does not work. In

:25:14.:25:33.

what way is that market to date different from the one Labour left

:25:33.:25:42.

companies that dominate the energy generate energy, and sell it on

:25:42.:25:53.

companies that dominate the energy Miliband recognised when he was

:25:53.:25:55.

Secretary of State and asked for more information from the company

:25:55.:25:59.

Secretary of State and asked for is on hold serve costs and profits,

:25:59.:26:00.

all the things we have done to mitigate against that in terms of a

:26:00.:26:04.

warm front programme and everything Horsell market is too secretive

:26:04.:26:13.

warm front programme and everything it is too much about such supply. -

:26:13.:26:16.

- the wholesale market. We have been raising with the Government in

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a co-operative way the argument been raising with the Government in

:26:18.:26:25.

resetting the market. It has got worse in terms of speed at which

:26:25.:26:31.

prices have gone up. Labour put wholesale and retail together. It

:26:31.:26:34.

was the start this dates back to wholesale and retail together. It

:26:34.:26:40.

was the start this dates back to privatisation. We took some reforms

:26:40.:26:40.

realised it was not working and privatisation. We took some reforms

:26:40.:26:48.

was broken and we need to reset privatisation. We took some reforms

:26:48.:26:50.

Ed Miliband will be the first to onwards. Let's have a look at what

:26:50.:26:54.

happened to energy prices under onwards. Let's have a look at what

:26:55.:26:59.

Labour government. Electricity up 67%, gas up 139%. Overall prices up

:26:59.:27:08.

by 48%. The market was broken and we saw prices biking as wholesale

:27:08.:27:14.

prices went up. The tick action we saw prices biking as wholesale

:27:14.:27:21.

the one Front programme, decent homes for social housing. -- we

:27:21.:27:30.

programme. Trying to do things around social obligations needs

:27:30.:27:35.

programme. Trying to do things be looked at. Gas and electricity

:27:35.:27:43.

presided over but as a consequence of Labour policy. Beds have a look

:27:43.:27:45.

at the breakdown of dual fuel - of Labour policy. Beds have a look

:27:45.:27:52.

and electricity bill. -- let's have a look. The supply costs of getting

:27:52.:27:59.

it to us and so on. The policies government - Green levies - are

:27:59.:28:11.

energy bills. £112 on average bill of 1188. You have put the bill up.

:28:11.:28:24.

obligations amount to £112. That helps the poorest insulate homes.

:28:24.:28:29.

Overwhelmingly, looking at your wholesale costs are worth more than

:28:29.:28:36.

half. What we have seen, based on figures we now have, in Eni macro,

:28:36.:28:43.

a wholesale costs fell by 39% and that was not reflected in our bills.

:28:43.:28:52.

Do you have plans to do anything about the £112? If you took that

:28:52.:28:57.

off, you could cut bills by 10% tomorrow. Or if you were in power.

:28:57.:29:02.

It is important that restimulate energy. It -- we stimulate. If we

:29:02.:29:11.

do not have clean energy, we will be beholden for ever-more to fossil

:29:11.:29:16.

do not have clean energy, we will fuels that are depleting. It will

:29:16.:29:20.

create jobs and bring in investment will start in the last few years,

:29:20.:29:30.

investment. If I could go back to whatever advance there are, looking

:29:30.:29:37.

at whether the money raised through energy companies to deliver energy

:29:37.:29:41.

efficiency, is that doing as well as it might? Could it be better

:29:41.:29:46.

delivered by another agency? They are fair questions. We need to get

:29:46.:29:53.

market. Can we make the market will competitive make sure when there is

:29:53.:29:57.

downward pressure on wholesale prices, that is reflected on our

:29:57.:30:02.

bills? That is the bigger picture argument. Also the freeze to help

:30:02.:30:04.

As you complain about the energy prices, it was as a result of your

:30:04.:30:17.

actions. Ed Miliband introduced prices, it was as a result of your

:30:17.:30:20.

climate change act. He admitted prices would have to rise to pay for

:30:20.:30:27.

decarbonisation. He said, we are going to minimise the costs as much

:30:27.:30:30.

as possible, but it is true there is not a low-cost energy future out

:30:30.:30:35.

there. It is important that we address the pressures on bills,

:30:35.:30:38.

there. It is important that we also recognise that if we are going

:30:38.:30:40.

to build a better future where we can have more home-grown British

:30:40.:30:47.

renewables. Truth is it is about the market. I acknowledge I acknowledge

:30:47.:30:59.

wholesale prices have fallen. They fell in 2009, we got a reduction in

:30:59.:31:08.

bills of 5%. Which are saying that the big companies are overcharging

:31:08.:31:09.

going up, but we haven't the big companies are overcharging

:31:09.:31:14.

amount of the big companies are overcharging

:31:14.:31:15.

those profits coming through. But the big companies are overcharging

:31:15.:31:20.

that £125 is going to get the big companies are overcharging

:31:20.:31:22.

because your leader said the big companies are overcharging

:31:22.:31:26.

speech in Brighton that Labour will have a world leading commitment

:31:26.:31:28.

speech in Brighton that Labour will Government to take out

:31:28.:31:30.

speech in Brighton that Labour will from energy

:31:30.:31:32.

speech in Brighton that Labour will is not that far away. By 2030,

:31:32.:31:35.

speech in Brighton that Labour will more coal generation, no more gas

:31:35.:31:36.

generation, only much more expensive more coal generation, no more gas

:31:36.:31:41.

nuclear and much more more coal generation, no more gas

:31:41.:31:42.

renewables. It cannot be more coal generation, no more gas

:31:42.:31:43.

without bills going up even further? more coal generation, no more gas

:31:43.:31:47.

Hang on a second. The 2030 target to more coal generation, no more gas

:31:47.:31:51.

remove carbon from more coal generation, no more gas

:31:51.:31:52.

supply, we have said we should set a more coal generation, no more gas

:31:52.:31:55.

target now because, actually, it more coal generation, no more gas

:31:55.:31:58.

gives us more time to plan ahead and also allows investment to come in.

:31:58.:32:00.

gives us more time to plan ahead and There is plenty

:32:00.:32:01.

gives us more time to plan ahead and in their pockets not want to

:32:01.:32:03.

gives us more time to plan ahead and what they are stalling because of

:32:03.:32:06.

gives us more time to plan ahead and the Government's hesitancy over

:32:06.:32:07.

gives us more time to plan ahead and this. I just want a clarification

:32:07.:32:08.

here. My understanding is that this. I just want a clarification

:32:08.:32:13.

commitment is to get rid of all carbon from power generation

:32:13.:32:16.

commitment is to get rid of all 2030? From the letters city supply.

:32:16.:32:19.

commitment is to get rid of all Only electricity. We will still have

:32:19.:32:23.

gas? We have always said we will need gas for decades to come.

:32:23.:32:26.

gas? We have always said we will are clear for that. But you will be

:32:26.:32:36.

increasingly dependent on expensive nuclear. EDF are currently demanding

:32:36.:32:38.

increasingly dependent on expensive twice the market

:32:38.:32:40.

increasingly dependent on expensive plans in this country.

:32:40.:32:45.

increasingly dependent on expensive are two or three times

:32:45.:32:47.

increasingly dependent on expensive price. Bills are going up under your

:32:47.:32:49.

policies, and price. Bills are going up under your

:32:49.:32:54.

policies? On nuclear, we took a decision

:32:54.:32:55.

policies? On nuclear, we took a that we needed to revitalise

:32:55.:33:00.

policies? On nuclear, we took a sector, to hit targets on

:33:00.:33:03.

policies? On nuclear, we took a energy and make sure it can do the

:33:03.:33:05.

policies? On nuclear, we took a heavy lifting. The Government at

:33:05.:33:08.

policies? On nuclear, we took a present time are

:33:08.:33:09.

policies? On nuclear, we took a discussions with

:33:09.:33:10.

policies? On nuclear, we took a strike price should be. It's

:33:10.:33:13.

important, because I don't know what it's going to be, it is important

:33:13.:33:15.

that stands up to scrutiny in terms it's going to be, it is important

:33:15.:33:18.

of value for money. At it's going to be, it is important

:33:18.:33:23.

time, I go back to market reforms. We will not just have

:33:23.:33:25.

time, I go back to market reforms. difference, the

:33:25.:33:30.

time, I go back to market reforms. we will have it for renewables as

:33:30.:33:32.

well. That is even more important, we will have it for renewables as

:33:32.:33:35.

that we have a transparent we will have it for renewables as

:33:35.:33:37.

that we can have a robust target price to be judged against. Michael

:33:37.:33:42.

that we can have a robust target Gove recognised in

:33:42.:33:43.

that we can have a robust target that the market was not working. The

:33:43.:33:45.

Telegraph that the market was not working. The

:33:45.:33:49.

they used the term cosy cartel. We have former advisers to David

:33:49.:33:54.

Cameron saying something needs to be have former advisers to David

:33:54.:33:56.

done. I'm surprised David have former advisers to David

:33:56.:33:59.

doesn't acknowledge that. You are going to freeze prices for 20 months

:33:59.:34:03.

and will come up with a new going to freeze prices for 20 months

:34:03.:34:07.

regulator to replace Ofgem. Will that regulator have the power to

:34:07.:34:10.

control prices? The new energy watchdog will have a strategy

:34:10.:34:16.

control prices? The new energy responsibility to monitor the

:34:16.:34:17.

wholesale costs and prices, which responsibility to monitor the

:34:17.:34:20.

currently doesn't have at the moment. As a result of that it

:34:20.:34:24.

currently doesn't have at the have the power

:34:24.:34:25.

currently doesn't have at the wholesale prices fall, it can

:34:25.:34:28.

currently doesn't have at the the energy companies, if they don't,

:34:28.:34:31.

currently doesn't have at the to pass on reductions in bills to

:34:31.:34:34.

consumers. It will not have to pass on reductions in bills to

:34:34.:34:38.

see in some parts of the European Union, 15 of them, that have a

:34:38.:34:40.

variety of price controls Union, 15 of them, that have a

:34:40.:34:44.

things at below inflation and what have you. France, Spain, Italy. It

:34:44.:34:47.

things at below inflation and what will not do that. Why?

:34:47.:34:50.

things at below inflation and what are looking at a temporary price

:34:50.:34:54.

things at below inflation and what freeze to reflect a

:34:54.:34:55.

things at below inflation and what wholesale prices, to give the

:34:55.:34:56.

British public respite from ever wholesale prices, to give the

:34:56.:35:00.

climbing bills while they wholesale prices, to give the

:35:00.:35:02.

reforms into the market. At the end of this, what we want is

:35:02.:35:06.

reforms into the market. At the end trusted, that is more transparent.

:35:06.:35:09.

reforms into the market. At the end We do believe it is right that,

:35:09.:35:13.

actually, we need a regulator that has much more of a role in making

:35:13.:35:16.

actually, we need a regulator that sure the market is managed

:35:16.:35:19.

effectively. Are you accusing energy companies of profiteering? EU I am

:35:19.:35:25.

accusing them of companies of profiteering? EU I am

:35:25.:35:28.

not passing on wholesale reduction companies of profiteering? EU I am

:35:28.:35:30.

costs to the customer in a fair companies of profiteering? EU I am

:35:30.:35:32.

Of making Carter -- cartel profits? companies of profiteering? EU I am

:35:32.:35:43.

I do believe that the level of profits they have passed on to their

:35:43.:35:47.

shareholders is high, profits they have passed on to their

:35:47.:35:49.

the reductions they could have profits they have passed on to their

:35:49.:35:51.

provided to consumers. Let's profits they have passed on to their

:35:51.:35:52.

the evidence for that. profits they have passed on to their

:35:52.:35:58.

British owned companies, SSE and Centrica. In the last fiscal year

:35:58.:36:01.

British owned companies, SSE and they made combined earnings of £4

:36:01.:36:05.

billion. But they invested £3 billion. The remaining money went to

:36:05.:36:10.

billion. But they invested £3 debt servicing and

:36:10.:36:11.

billion. But they invested £3 which go into pension funds. Where

:36:11.:36:15.

billion. But they invested £3 in these figures is the

:36:15.:36:16.

profiteering? My figures that I in these figures is the

:36:16.:36:20.

through their reporting to Ofgem and work done by other organisations,

:36:20.:36:27.

Witch and others, it shows work done by other organisations,

:36:27.:36:29.

Centrica's case they have something work done by other organisations,

:36:29.:36:32.

like 8% return in profit work done by other organisations,

:36:32.:36:34.

the retail side. That goes up to 24% work done by other organisations,

:36:34.:36:37.

on the generation side. They have work done by other organisations,

:36:37.:36:40.

passed on, in terms of profits, something I70 4% through evidence to

:36:40.:36:45.

shareholders. But these figures don't show that. They have invested

:36:45.:36:47.

shareholders. But these figures £3 billion. I am reporting what has

:36:47.:36:54.

shareholders. But these figures been reported by Ofgem. Ofgem has

:36:54.:36:56.

not accused them of been reported by Ofgem. Ofgem has

:36:56.:37:00.

They may well be, but we don't have the evidence. I would accuse Ofgem

:37:00.:37:02.

of not doing the job they the evidence. I would accuse Ofgem

:37:02.:37:05.

doing, and they have held back from tackling the issue. It is

:37:05.:37:08.

acknowledged, across the sector, tackling the issue. It is

:37:08.:37:11.

across the big six, something tackling the issue. It is

:37:11.:37:13.

50% of profits has gone tackling the issue. It is

:37:13.:37:17.

dividends to shareholders. In Centrica's case it is 74%. On the

:37:17.:37:21.

Centrica example, even though they have had the highest profit

:37:21.:37:23.

Centrica example, even though they they have invested the least.

:37:23.:37:27.

Centrica example, even though they fair to question. We are

:37:27.:37:31.

Centrica example, even though they of time. None of us really know what

:37:31.:37:33.

the true price of energy of time. None of us really know what

:37:33.:37:38.

Labour's policy to reform his crucial. That

:37:38.:37:40.

Labour's policy to reform his the market and we can't

:37:40.:37:42.

Labour's policy to reform his difference. If they continue putting

:37:42.:37:44.

Labour's policy to reform his prices up, even after your price

:37:44.:37:45.

freeze, if they don't invest prices up, even after your price

:37:45.:37:50.

way that they do, do you rule out wholesale

:37:50.:37:51.

way that they do, do you rule out Absolutely. I want a more

:37:51.:37:54.

way that they do, do you rule out competitive market and that is why

:37:54.:37:55.

we are resetting it. You are competitive market and that is why

:37:55.:37:59.

watching Sunday Politics. competitive market and that is why

:37:59.:38:00.

in just over 20 minutes I will be competitive market and that is why

:38:00.:38:02.

looking at the week ahead with Hello and this is the

:38:02.:38:03.

political panel and Hello and this is the Sunday

:38:03.:38:23.

Politics. Coming up: On the eve of the Conservative party conference,

:38:23.:38:25.

our political editor talks to the prime minister about Franklin,

:38:25.:38:30.

children's centres and the threat of —— fracking.

:38:30.:38:40.

Welcome to my guests. Kent county council could be in line for a bill

:38:40.:38:46.

of millions of pounds for years to PFI come, paying for contracts on

:38:46.:38:52.

academy schools. The council lost its battle with the government and

:38:52.:38:56.

will have to pay £1 million a year to maintain the building and

:38:56.:39:01.

facilities at the absolute Academy. —— absolute. This could have far

:39:01.:39:12.

reaching applications. Paul, this was a Labour government initiative

:39:12.:39:20.

PFI, . It sounds like it could be disastrous. It was started by the

:39:20.:39:24.

previous Conservative government. The imperative was so that the

:39:24.:39:30.

buildings could be built. It was worth it to repair the schools and

:39:30.:39:36.

hospitals at the time. Now we are paying in retrospect. Raymond, this

:39:36.:39:39.

highlights what a grey area the whole subject of academies is. It's

:39:39.:39:44.

something that Michael Gove is enthusiastically putting through.

:39:44.:39:50.

Let me make it clear, academies are doing exceptionally well. Looking at

:39:50.:39:53.

the results from 2011 to 2012 and the GCSE results, they are

:39:54.:39:58.

exceptionally high. It's a choice which parents can make, where their

:39:58.:40:02.

child wants to go to school. We should give parents choice. The

:40:02.:40:11.

thing with that, in my view, once a school becomes independent and

:40:11.:40:15.

autonomous, it should carry that financial liability by itself,

:40:15.:40:18.

rather than leaving it with the local authority. It's that money

:40:18.:40:23.

which the local authority has can go to other schools.

:40:23.:40:28.

The future of many of our ancient woodlands could be under threat if

:40:28.:40:31.

they plan to widen the 821 near Tonbridge Kent is given the

:40:31.:40:38.

go—ahead. —— A21. The government 's new planning guidelines places

:40:38.:40:45.

presumption on favour of... In a minute, we will speak to the council

:40:45.:40:50.

who thinks the road should get the go—ahead but first, our reporter

:40:50.:40:53.

went to the woods to look at the arguments being made to save them.

:40:53.:41:04.

Majestic and awe—inspiring. This woodland has taken more than 400

:41:04.:41:12.

years to mature. But now its future may signal the few —— the fate of

:41:12.:41:17.

other ancient woodlands around the country because 22 acres of these

:41:17.:41:22.

words may have to make way for this. The decision on widening this

:41:22.:41:29.

stretch of the A21 is being seen as a landmark ruling on the government

:41:29.:41:33.

's new planning policy. We are concerned this will set a precedent

:41:33.:41:35.

for other schemes where again, there are other options. Destruction is

:41:35.:41:42.

avoidable. We don't want to see too many decisions coming out that lead

:41:42.:41:46.

people down the route to think the easy option is to destroy the

:41:46.:41:50.

ancient woodland. We are worried it would become a soft target. The

:41:50.:41:56.

first major test of the National planning policy framework also

:41:56.:41:59.

centred on ancient woodlands in Kent and its outcome last week has got

:41:59.:42:05.

campaigners worried. They lost their fight to stop the destruction of 80

:42:06.:42:10.

acres of oak wood near Maidstone to make way for a quarry expansion.

:42:10.:42:15.

They had tried to force a judicial review of the decision made by the

:42:15.:42:19.

Secretary of State for communities and local government, Eric pickles.

:42:19.:42:25.

The decision has basically served a potential death sentence on every

:42:25.:42:28.

single piece of ancient woodland in this country. No ancient woodland is

:42:28.:42:33.

no say. This is a massive national crisis alone over Lib Dems are

:42:33.:42:38.

hugely concerned about this. I hope now the Conservatives will start to

:42:38.:42:43.

realise what this decision means. Conservationists say nothing can

:42:43.:42:52.

make up for destroying this habitat as it has taken centuries to evolve.

:42:52.:42:57.

Some parts of the woodlands around the road may also be designated as a

:42:57.:43:02.

site of special scientific interest. But this fight is not just a matter

:43:02.:43:10.

of protecting the environment. They are taking the easy option. Quite

:43:10.:43:15.

often, road expansion is a short—term fix. Studies show that

:43:15.:43:17.

soon after the road widening, short—term fix. Studies show that

:43:17.:43:23.

transport expands to fit capacity available. We would rather see a

:43:23.:43:26.

more holistic solution, whether that's public transport or

:43:26.:43:30.

tunnelling. A public enquiry as to whether to make it dual carriageway

:43:30.:43:36.

finished this summer. The government says it could bring £400 million

:43:36.:43:40.

worth of economic benefits, opponents argue this is the wrong

:43:40.:43:44.

approach. This whole concept of economic growth at any cost has to

:43:44.:43:49.

be challenged. Frankly, with economic growth you get further

:43:49.:43:53.

environmental destruction, the environment is under huge pressure,

:43:53.:43:55.

we are already living way beyond our means. There is also an argument

:43:55.:44:03.

that woodlands themselves bring their own economic benefits. There

:44:03.:44:10.

were 30 million visits to woodlands and forests in the south—east last

:44:10.:44:18.

year. Natural England estimates that £180 million was spent during those

:44:18.:44:23.

visits. And here in the south—east, we have four times more ancient

:44:23.:44:30.

woodland and the national average. There is growing concern about the

:44:30.:44:33.

fate of other ancient woodlands in the south—east. At a public meeting

:44:33.:44:37.

in Maidstone this week, residents met to discuss the risk posed to a

:44:37.:44:42.

dozen other sites in the borough. I think we are going to lose

:44:42.:44:46.

irretrievably a lot of what is the green space around Maidstone. It is

:44:46.:44:50.

supposed to be the Garden of England, Kent, and we are just

:44:50.:44:57.

worried that all our green spaces are being swallowed up. The final

:44:57.:45:01.

decision over the road expansion is due in the next few months. In the

:45:01.:45:05.

meantime, campaigners say the fate of the country 's ancient woodlands

:45:05.:45:10.

hangs in the balance. Will the government is planning

:45:10.:45:14.

reforms mean economic interest will always take priority over the

:45:14.:45:23.

environment? We are joined in the studio by the

:45:23.:45:28.

leader of Tonbridge Borough Council. Hello. Anyone who regularly

:45:28.:45:34.

uses that road will be in favour of whitening it. You convinced that

:45:34.:45:38.

long—term, this is the answer to cutting congestion in the area? What

:45:38.:45:42.

we need to look at is what we've got at the moment. There is a very

:45:42.:45:47.

strong case for duelling the road on this four mile stretch. Festival,

:45:47.:45:50.

congestion is a significant problem. In itself, that is a

:45:50.:45:55.

barrier to economic activity and development. Second, we need to look

:45:55.:45:58.

at the poor safety record of the road. More recently, with fatalities

:45:58.:46:02.

that have taken place. There was a young girl in Sevenoaks who was

:46:02.:46:06.

killed going down the hill. We now also need to consider that this

:46:06.:46:07.

stretch of road serves the new strategic hospital at Pembrey. It is

:46:07.:46:16.

regrettable that when the agreement was agreed by the government, they

:46:16.:46:20.

didn't also locked in the duelling of the road. 90% of our congestion

:46:20.:46:26.

is in towns. Anyone will tell you, the road coming into Tonbridge Wells

:46:26.:46:31.

is very congested. All that will happen is the traffic get there

:46:31.:46:35.

faster and stints in a Jew. It's fine on the weekend. Sometimes it is

:46:35.:46:41.

very congested. If you see the road in peak hours, it's incredibly

:46:41.:46:45.

congested. The congestion goes into Tonbridge itself from the

:46:45.:46:51.

roundabout. A wider faster road to get those times will help. It will

:46:51.:46:55.

help and it will also help businesses do their business. The

:46:55.:47:03.

Federation of small businesses said that 75% of respondents said that

:47:03.:47:06.

duelling the road will help the economic activity. It will mean loss

:47:06.:47:13.

of ancient woodlands. These particular habitats. Does that

:47:13.:47:16.

concern you at all? That is regrettable but we also need to

:47:16.:47:20.

consider that we're talking about nine characters of woodland. That's

:47:20.:47:24.

about 1% of the total... It is ancient woodland but I think we also

:47:24.:47:29.

need to look ahead as well. Are we going to be stymied in terms of

:47:29.:47:31.

economic growth because of what we've got from our heritage? I think

:47:31.:47:36.

we need to have a sustainable economic development and this is the

:47:36.:47:39.

right way to achieve that. What do you think, Raymond? This is the

:47:39.:47:44.

wider question for this very green part of the world. As economic

:47:44.:47:48.

development always worthwhile at the expense of ancient woodland? Not at

:47:48.:47:51.

all. You have to find a balance between the two. The same debate was

:47:51.:47:55.

had with high—speed one which came to Kent. Look at the benefits that

:47:55.:47:59.

are coming to the south—east as a result of that. We have the same

:47:59.:48:04.

argument with the motorway when it came about. You have to balance the

:48:04.:48:09.

environment and economy. I think one goes with the other. You cannot do

:48:09.:48:14.

one without other. Are you concerned about the mood music coming from

:48:14.:48:21.

Conservative ministers, all talking about the sacrifices of the

:48:21.:48:23.

environment for the sake of economic growth? If you look at the national

:48:23.:48:31.

policy framework which talks about the presumption in favour of keeping

:48:31.:48:37.

ancient woodland, and also preserving irreplaceable habitats,

:48:37.:48:38.

the presumption is woodland. But in exceptional

:48:38.:48:47.

circumstances, if the benefit outweighs the loss, you have to go

:48:47.:48:51.

with the benefit. He will also have to see what you can do to preserve

:48:51.:48:54.

the environment. Ultimately, you have to take into account the

:48:54.:48:57.

environmental features. If it does go ahead, you have to do everything

:48:57.:49:01.

you can to put into place environmental features to ensure

:49:01.:49:08.

that. You must... Ed Miliband talk about building more housing and

:49:08.:49:11.

forcing housing on rural communities. He's not going to lose

:49:11.:49:15.

any votes by that kind of call, is it? The first thing the government

:49:15.:49:18.

did was to abolish the infrastructure planning commission.

:49:18.:49:22.

That means you don't have that overview so you can strategically

:49:22.:49:26.

plan your 30s, your roads, your railways as well and the green

:49:26.:49:41.

spaces that will enjoy. You have the regional spatial strategy which went

:49:41.:49:46.

to concrete over 27 different towns who ran the country. At the expense

:49:46.:49:52.

of our woodlands? One of our organisations has said housing is

:49:52.:49:56.

the biggest threat to ancient woodlands. That is why you need an

:49:56.:50:00.

overview. We have to recognise our population is growing and people

:50:00.:50:02.

want to live an attractive places. All of these areas were originally

:50:02.:50:06.

feels and now they are not. We have to encroach to some degree but it's

:50:06.:50:11.

about getting the balance right. Final question, you want your road

:50:11.:50:15.

to be widened. We understand that but are you not worried

:50:16.:50:18.

president that sets for the president that sets foot of valuable

:50:18.:50:21.

parts of our countryside? I think that it has to be a case—by—case

:50:21.:50:27.

basis. The arguments over the duelling of this section of road

:50:27.:50:30.

have been going on for years and years. We have recently had the

:50:30.:50:41.

public enquiry. I wait with baited breath to see if we get the scheme

:50:41.:50:44.

ready so that when the Chancellor releases the government —— money in

:50:44.:50:46.

2015, we can have the scheme ready Now, it is week three of the party

:50:46.:50:49.

conference season and the Conservatives are meeting in

:50:49.:50:52.

Manchester. A survey of Tory councillors carried out for this

:50:52.:50:56.

programme has found that 22% of them would support a pact with UKIP.

:50:56.:51:08.

I am not looking for pacts. I think we need to give people a clear

:51:08.:51:14.

choice at the next election. The British economy has turned a corner.

:51:14.:51:19.

We are seeing more jobs, more new businesses. You're beginning to get

:51:19.:51:22.

things moving again. Do you want to stick with us on the right track,

:51:22.:51:26.

delivering a colony for hard—working people or do you want to protect ——

:51:26.:51:30.

that at risk with Ed Miliband and his crazy plans to tax business out

:51:30.:51:36.

of existence? I've got to do more to win people over. But I think when we

:51:36.:51:39.

make the arguments about how we are getting control of immigration,

:51:39.:51:43.

forming our —— reforming our welfare system, school standards are

:51:43.:51:46.

raising, you're sorting out his problems, I think we will bring

:51:46.:51:51.

people back. If not UKIP a pact with, or how about wooing back their

:51:51.:51:55.

voters? There are concerns in the south—east. We are dealing with all

:51:55.:51:59.

of those issues. Let me take one, the Europe issue which is important

:51:59.:52:04.

to some voters. I have promised that if re—elected, we will have a wee

:52:04.:52:08.

negotiation and then and in/out referendum.

:52:08.:52:11.

Residents in Sittingbourne were shocked to find the council had

:52:11.:59:04.

painted a series of short yellow lines around cars in the middle of

:59:04.:59:10.

the night. Residents think they have crossed the line. Pathetic.

:59:10.:59:16.

Horrendous. Never seen something so shocking. They are pulling no

:59:16.:59:22.

punches and nor is he in Dale on the Brighton seafront. He was wrestled

:59:22.:59:32.

away. He has apologised and received a caution from the police. Caroline

:59:32.:59:35.

Lucas has gone one further and was charged for an offence this week.

:59:35.:59:43.

The Brighton MP faces one charge of obstructing the highway. Lucas says

:59:43.:59:46.

she believes in the right to peaceful process. Finally, Tracey

:59:46.:59:52.

sparked a security alert in the House of Commons. Turns out it was

:59:52.:59:59.

spider spray. Her house is currently invested with the creepy crawlies.

:59:59.:00:05.

Poor old Tracey. I am not going to ask you whether you are scared of

:00:05.:00:09.

spiders. What do you think of Caroline Lucas? She is standing up

:00:09.:00:15.

for her values. I think it is reckless because the first thing we

:00:15.:00:20.

do is to tell our children to stay within the law. If Caroline wants to

:00:20.:00:24.

demonstrate peacefully, absolutely right and proper. Everyone has a

:00:24.:00:27.

right to do that. But there is a line. If you cross that, whether you

:00:27.:00:33.

are an MP, or a senior person out there, you are still subject to the

:00:33.:00:36.

same law as other residents. On that basis, the courts should try it

:00:36.:00:42.

fairly. It could win her votes. She is desperate to get arrested. She

:00:42.:00:45.

was dying to be arrested. This will encourage you. What would you stand

:00:45.:00:53.

for? I would say that you should stand up your principles. You must

:00:53.:00:57.

act within the law. Thank you very much. That's all we've got time for.

:00:57.:01:19.

So, we'll David Cameron's marriage tax break win over voters? How will

:01:19.:01:25.

So, we'll David Cameron's marriage conference initiatives? And what is

:01:25.:01:36.

UKIP leader Nigel FarageFarage up to with the Tories in Manchester?

:01:36.:01:41.

On this business of a possible Tory- UKIP pact, in a general election,

:01:41.:01:56.

let's see what David Cameron had to say about that earlier. I am not

:01:56.:02:02.

looking for a packed. I think we need to give people a clear choice

:02:02.:02:05.

at the general election. The British economy has turned a corner. We

:02:05.:02:09.

at the general election. The British on the right track, we are seeing

:02:09.:02:11.

more jobs, new businesses, we are beginning to get things moving

:02:11.:02:14.

again. Do you want to stick with us, hard-working people, or do you want

:02:14.:02:20.

to put it at risk with Ed Miliband hard-working people, or do you want

:02:20.:02:25.

and his crazy plans to tax business out of existence? That was the Prime

:02:25.:02:31.

there any appetite on the UKIP side discussions around the country,

:02:31.:02:39.

there any appetite on the UKIP side would say no. It's being discussed,

:02:39.:02:50.

is the media that is pushing this. It has reflected what has happened

:02:50.:02:53.

conference season began. Labour It has reflected what has happened

:02:53.:02:59.

trying to reclaim what I would call position. I'm not sure what the

:02:59.:03:05.

Liberal Democrats or two, but the Conservatives are trying to react to

:03:05.:03:11.

accusation they are lurching more to the right, which the media wants to

:03:11.:03:16.

able to do some sort of pact with interpret as them possibly being

:03:16.:03:20.

able to do some sort of pact with UKIP. Have you given any thought to

:03:20.:03:26.

whatsoever. It is not on the radar. I have read comments, including

:03:26.:03:33.

Carswell, the Eurosceptics, that they might form a potential, let's

:03:33.:03:39.

call it, you know, cabinet. If there were UKIP members, I don't doubt

:03:39.:03:43.

that Nigel Farage would be one of them. But I would reiterate it is

:03:43.:03:46.

not discussions that are taking place. I am thinking more of an

:03:46.:03:54.

have responded to that by saying, the moment, there are no ongoing

:03:54.:03:58.

discussions. There is certainly constituency level or coming out of

:03:58.:04:05.

believe any constituencies are Eurosceptics? I am not privy to

:04:05.:04:14.

believe any constituencies are all 360 constituencies might be

:04:14.:04:16.

discussing. All I can do is give you the example of the few I have seen

:04:16.:04:22.

and know it is not on the agenda. Without a pact, it is perfectly

:04:22.:04:24.

possible that you could fail to Without a pact, it is perfectly

:04:24.:04:29.

a single seat at the next election, but put Ed Miliband into Downing

:04:29.:04:34.

Street? Categorically not. There are a number of seats out there that are

:04:34.:04:36.

very clear marginals, just like a number of seats out there that are

:04:36.:04:53.

Izzard was. I believe there could be an MP -- just like Eastleigh was. If

:04:53.:04:58.

you take enough votes away from an MP -- just like Eastleigh was. If

:04:58.:05:01.

Tories, if you make sure that Labour wins? I will go back to the comment

:05:02.:05:07.

I made. If you take Eastleigh as an example, a Liberal Democrat held

:05:07.:05:12.

seat, even after that result, does not mean that UKIP is suddenly going

:05:12.:05:17.

to be focusing on Tory seats. We are out there because people resonate

:05:17.:05:20.

with our message. For the Liberal Democrats to make it abundantly

:05:21.:05:23.

clear that they will not support a referendum, that they will not

:05:23.:05:27.

support any discussion on leaving the queue, that could be a big

:05:27.:05:31.

turn-off for voters. David Cameron says there is not going to be a

:05:31.:05:33.

pact, Diane James says there is says there is not going to be a

:05:33.:05:36.

going to be one. There might be says there is not going to be a

:05:36.:05:38.

or at a constituency level. But says there is not going to be a

:05:38.:05:41.

seems clear to me that there will not be a national one. So, does

:05:41.:05:46.

David Cameron have a UKIP strategy? The only encouraging thing for

:05:46.:05:48.

UKIP's successful David Cameron that the moment that he would only

:05:48.:05:51.

that their support is so enormous that the moment that he would only

:05:51.:05:55.

really need to win back maybe a third or a quarter of its to make a

:05:55.:05:58.

decisive difference to the Tory share of the vote in 2015. The

:05:58.:06:02.

question becomes, how much of that UKIP support is up for grabs? A

:06:02.:06:07.

question becomes, how much of that last week suggested that 47% of

:06:07.:06:09.

current UKIP voters would consider voting Tory if it meant preventing

:06:09.:06:12.

Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister. That number goes up to 57% against

:06:12.:06:18.

recovery. So, plausibly, there is secondary question is, what does

:06:18.:06:25.

David Cameron do to win over those people? He has tried a Europe will

:06:25.:06:29.

referendum and it didn't work. He tried travelling up his immigration

:06:29.:06:32.

policy and that didn't work. I wonder if it is time. You wait until

:06:32.:06:38.

the run-up to 2015, when they start to focus on the explicit choice

:06:38.:06:44.

Cameron, and that is what shifts a Cameron. We heard from William Hague

:06:44.:06:52.

earlier in the programme, the Tory line is that if you vote UKIP you

:06:52.:06:55.

could end up with Ed Miliband in Downing Street. That is the simple

:06:55.:07:01.

appeal, isn't it? Yes, and I think Diane is right, I think the European

:07:01.:07:07.

elections will show a good showing for UKIP. It is deemed the one where

:07:07.:07:12.

you can play away. I think it will be hard for people to get excited

:07:12.:07:14.

about that, I think that bounce be hard for people to get excited

:07:14.:07:20.

fade away. In Eastleigh, they had a good ground game, that is difficult

:07:20.:07:25.

for UKIP, that don't have that machinery sorted. How are they going

:07:26.:07:28.

to fund that operation? But the machinery sorted. How are they going

:07:28.:07:33.

bounce could fade away after the European elections. Even if they go

:07:33.:07:39.

election, they are still immensely dangerous to the Conservative Party.

:07:39.:07:43.

But there is really only two things David Cameron can do. One is to

:07:43.:07:47.

But there is really only two things boring and talk about helping people

:07:47.:07:49.

with their mortgage, helping with bread and butter issues. The second

:07:49.:07:54.

thing is, those European actions, he tends to the natural Conservative

:07:54.:07:57.

voters and says, you have had your fun, next year do you want me or Ed

:07:57.:07:59.

Miliband us your prime and? The fun, next year do you want me or Ed

:07:59.:08:03.

danger with David Cameron is saying, of course, there is not going to be

:08:03.:08:07.

a pact, the danger is you will get a repeat of the 1977 election. John

:08:07.:08:13.

Major said, famously, do not bind my hands. A series of Conservative

:08:13.:08:19.

personally rule out membership of the euro, when the Conservative

:08:19.:08:23.

membership was wait and see. That looked like a Prime Minister not in

:08:23.:08:25.

charge of his party. The danger looked like a Prime Minister not in

:08:25.:08:31.

Let's assume you do really well looked like a Prime Minister not in

:08:31.:08:34.

the European actions and there is a widespread expectation that you

:08:34.:08:41.

will, even in Downing Street. They might be managing expectations.

:08:41.:08:44.

will, even in Downing Street. They stops you fading away as the general

:08:44.:08:47.

election approaches? A number of reasons. As has been mentioned,

:08:47.:08:50.

election approaches? A number of whole issue of the referendum pledge

:08:50.:08:52.

has been proved to be an absolute nonsense. It is so contingent on if

:08:52.:08:59.

I am re-elected, if it's not a coalition government, is, if, if.

:08:59.:09:07.

That was fooled nobody. The issue of where voters are coming from, it is

:09:07.:09:08.

because they have lost faith in where voters are coming from, it is

:09:08.:09:12.

David Cameron says. There is nothing he is going to say that is convince

:09:12.:09:18.

think that is my view and the view of a lot of UKIP. I am told that

:09:18.:09:21.

they have expunged Nigel Farage of a lot of UKIP. I am told that

:09:21.:09:29.

the fringes? It is a great scoop, on the front page. They are outside the

:09:29.:09:33.

ring of steel. Even so, they won't programme, so they must be worried

:09:33.:09:38.

paid money for adverts in the Tory about something. His people have

:09:38.:09:42.

paid money for adverts in the Tory brochure and his name has been taken

:09:42.:09:43.

out. Speaking of people the Tory brochure and his name has been taken

:09:43.:09:47.

leadership is worried about, Boris Johnson, are we in any doubt as

:09:47.:09:52.

leadership is worried about, Boris interview that he is now beginning

:09:52.:09:59.

his long march back to Parliament? He does express feeling slightly sad

:09:59.:10:01.

during the Syria debate that he He does express feeling slightly sad

:10:01.:10:04.

not there, on the political front line to participate. I still do

:10:04.:10:09.

not there, on the political front see why it is in his interest is to

:10:09.:10:14.

move before 2015. No, I don't think he will move before, I think he

:10:14.:10:17.

move before 2015. No, I don't think sending a signal to the existing

:10:17.:10:17.

Tories in the Commons that when sending a signal to the existing

:10:17.:10:29.

Me Dave goes, I will be back? He has the Vince Cable problem, if you

:10:29.:10:33.

Me Dave goes, I will be back? He has the same thing too many times,

:10:33.:10:36.

people get bored and factor it in. The interesting thing is him saying

:10:36.:10:40.

that people have seven years before the electorate get bored of them. He

:10:40.:10:45.

might be cresting that. He doesn't want to be Prime Minister, he is

:10:45.:10:48.

much more ambitious than that. He wants to be an emperor. He was

:10:48.:10:55.

asked, which Roman emperor would you like to be compared to? You said,

:10:55.:11:02.

important. I don't think you are thinking big enough. See what I

:11:02.:11:09.

important. I don't think you are to put up with, every Sunday? By

:11:09.:11:09.

virtue of being born in the US, to put up with, every Sunday? By

:11:09.:11:14.

could be president. Unlike Arnold Schwarzenegger. How about a deal

:11:14.:11:23.

with Boris? He has made no secret, after Eastleigh, that he would be

:11:23.:11:27.

open to a discussion. Let's call it no more than a discussion. He has

:11:27.:11:31.

been adamant, however, he does not see any reason, any justification or

:11:31.:11:36.

any opportunity where he would be able to have that discourse with

:11:36.:11:42.

any opportunity where he would be David Cameron. Maybe it comes down

:11:42.:11:45.

to that on both sides. I've no idea. We know that the Tories will be

:11:45.:11:49.

to that on both sides. I've no idea. more Eurosceptic after the next

:11:49.:11:52.

election? I can't imagine David Cameron's successor will be somebody

:11:52.:11:56.

that supports EU membership in ideological direction of the party.

:11:56.:12:04.

The leadership contest will be about 2018. If you are standing, when

:12:04.:12:05.

this is a great deal for Britain membership, are you going to say

:12:05.:12:12.

this is a great deal for Britain because the Prime Minister has

:12:12.:12:14.

turned to leave rapid change two words in the working Time directive,

:12:14.:12:17.

turned to leave rapid change two or are you going to become a leader

:12:17.:12:20.

by saying, I want out? What would be a good conference for David Cameron

:12:20.:12:31.

eye-catching announcement related to living standards. May be a clearer

:12:31.:12:36.

line on energy prices? That would certainly help, that fightback has

:12:36.:12:41.

been rubbish so far. The thing we should be looking out for are not

:12:41.:12:44.

the polls immediately after, but the ones about the end of October, when

:12:44.:12:47.

everything gets to settle down and then we will see what happens. In a

:12:47.:12:53.

word, what is Nigel Farage out to get at the Tory conference? What is

:12:53.:12:57.

he doing, other than mischief? I could almost say revenge. Revenge on

:12:57.:13:05.

Mr Cameron? Yes. You know? Lord Ashcroft was there at the Labour

:13:05.:13:11.

conference. You call it mischief, but there is every reason why he

:13:11.:13:15.

should be there. We all call it mischief. Thanks for being with

:13:15.:13:19.

should be there. We all call it Join me on Daily Politics for live

:13:19.:13:22.

coverage of the Conservative Party conference tomorrow morning from

:13:22.:13:25.

11:30 on BBC Two. We will bring conference tomorrow morning from

:13:25.:13:29.

George Osborne's speech live and uninterrupted. I'll be back next

:13:29.:13:33.

weekend when guests will include former Conservative Chancellor

:13:33.:13:34.

Kenneth Clarke. Remember, if it former Conservative Chancellor

:13:34.:13:37.

Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:37.:13:40.

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