01/12/2013 Sunday Politics South East


01/12/2013

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Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. George Osborne

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announces a ?50 cut to annual household energy bills. We'll talk

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to Lib Dem president Tim Farron ahead of the Chancellor's mini

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budget this week. Net immigration is up for the first

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time in two years. Labour and the Tories say they want to bring it

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down, but how? Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper joins us for the

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Sunday Interview. The harder you shake the pack, the easier it will

:01:10.:01:12.

be for some cornflakes to get to the top. The Mayor of London says

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inequality and greed are essential to spur economic activity. The

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speech won him plenty And in the south`east, one in my age

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are more likely to die as result of domestic islands than any other

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cause so capital is now a crisis. Another

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week, another strategy? Can this one deliver?

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And with me throughout today's programme, well, we've shaken the

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packet and look who's risen to the top. Or did we open it at the

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bottom? Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh and Sam Coates. All three will be

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tweeting throughout the programme using the hashtag #bbcsp. So, after

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weeks in which Ed Miliband's promise to freeze energy prices has set the

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Westminster agenda, the Coalition Government is finally coming up with

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its answer. This morning the Chancellor George Osborne explained

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how he plans to cut household energy bills by an average of fifty quid.

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What we're going to do is roll back the levees that are placed by

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government on people's electricity bills. This will mean that for the

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average bill payer, they will have ?50 of those electricity and gas

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bills. That will help families. We are doing it in the way that

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government can do it. We are controlling the cost that families

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incurred because of government policies. We are doing it in a way

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that will not damage the environment or reduce our commitment to dealing

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with climate change. We will not produce commit men to helping

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low-income families with the cost of living. Janan, we are finally seeing

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the coalition begin to play its hand in response to the Ed Miliband

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freeze? They have been trying to respond for almost ten weeks and

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older responses have been quite fiddly. We are going to take a bit

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of tax year, put it onto general taxation, have a conversation with

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the energy companies, engineered a rebate of some kind, this is not

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very vivid. The advantage of the idea that they have announced

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overnight is that it is clear and it has a nice round figure attached to

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it, ?50. The chief of staff of President Obama, he said, if you are

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explaining, you're losing. The genius of this idea is that it does

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not require explanation. He would not drawn this morning on what

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agreement he had with the energy companies, and whether this would

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fall through to the bottom of the bill, but the way he spoke, saying,

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I am not going to pre-empt what the energy companies say, that suggests

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he has something up his sleeve. Yes, I thought so. The energy companies

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have made this so badly for so long. It would be awful if he announced

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this and the energy companies said, we are going to keep this money for

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ourselves. I do not think he is that stupid. The energy companies have an

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incentive to go along with this don't they? My worry is that I am

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not sure how much it will be within the opinion polls. I think people

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might expect this now, it is not a new thing, it is not an exciting

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thing. Say in the markets, they may have priced the ten already. If by

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Thursday of this week, he is able to say, I have a ?50 cut coming to your

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bill. The energy companies have guaranteed that this will fall

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through onto your energy bill, and they have indicated to me that they

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themselves will not put up energy prices through 2014, has he shot the

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Ed Miliband Fox? I think he has a couple of challenges. It is still

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very hard. This is an answer for the next 12 months but did is no chance

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announced that Labour will stop saying they are going to freeze

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prices in the next Parliament. He will say, I have not just frozen

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them, I have done that as well and I have cut them. When people look at

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their energy bills, they are going up by more than ?50. This is a

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reduction in the amount that they are going up overall. Year on 0

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will be for George Osborne. He will have to come up with something this

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time next year. The detail in the Sunday papers reveals that George

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Osborne is trying to get the energy companies to put on bills that 50

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has been knocked off your bill because of a reduction by the

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government. He is trying to get the energy companies to do his political

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bidding for him. It will be interesting to see if they go along

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with that, because then we will know how cross the arm with Ed Miliband.

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Let's get another perspective. Joining me now from Kendal in the

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Lake District is the president of the Liberal Democrats, Tim Farron.

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Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Good morning. Let me ask you this, the

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coalition is rowing back on green taxes, I do comfortable with that or

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is it something else you will rebel against? I am very comfortable with

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the fact we are protecting for the money is going. I am open to where

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the money comes from. The notion that we should stop insulating the

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homes of elderly people or stop investing in British manufacturing

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in terms of green industry, that is something that I resolutely oppose,

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but I am pleased that the funding will be made available for all that.

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You cannot ignore the fact that for a whole range of reasons, mostly

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down to the actions of the energy companies, you have prices that are

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shooting up and affecting lots of people, making life hard. You cannot

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ignore that. If we fund the installation of homes for older

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people and others, if we protect British manufacturing jobs, and

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raise the money through general taxation, I am comfortable with

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that. It is not clear that is going to happen. It looks like the

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eco-scheme, whereby the energy companies pay for the installation

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of those on below-average incomes, they will spin that out over four

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years, not two years, and one estimate is that that will cost

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10,000 jobs. You're always boasting about your commitment to green jobs,

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how do square that? I do not believe that. The roll-out will be longer.

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The number of houses reached will be greater and that is a good thing. My

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take is that it will not affect the number of jobs. People talk about

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green levies. There has been disparaging language about that sort

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of thing. There are 2 million people in this country in the lowest income

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families and they get ?230 off their energy bills because of what isn't

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-- because of what is disparaging the refer to as green stuff, shall

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we call it. There will be more properties covered. We both know

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that your party is being pushed into this by the Tories. You would not be

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doing this off your own bad. You are in coalition with people who have

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jettisoned their green Prudential is? -- credentials. You have made my

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point quite well. David Cameron s panicked response to this over the

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last few months was to ditch all the green stuff. It has been a job to

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make sure that we hold him to his pledges and the green cord of this

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government. That is why we are not scrapping the investment, we are

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making sure it is funded from general taxation. I am talking to

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you from Kendal. Lots of people struggle to pay their energy bills.

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But all these things pale into insignificance compared to the

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threat of climate change and we must hold the Prime Minister to account

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on this issue. Argue reconciled to the idea that as long as you're in

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coalition with the Tories you will never get a mansion tax? I am not

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reconciled to it. We are trying to give off other tax cut to the lowest

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income people. What about the mansion tax? That would be

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potentially paid for by another view source of finance. That would be

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that the wealthy... We know that is what you want, but you're not going

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to get that? We will keep fighting for it. It is extremely important.

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We can show where we will get the money from. I know that is the

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adamant. That is not what I asked you. Ed Balls and Labour run in

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favour of a mansion tax, have you talked to them about it? The honest

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answer is I have not. It is interesting that they have come

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round to supporting our policy having rejected it in power. So if

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Labour was the largest party in parliament but not in power, you

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would have no problem agreeing with a mansion tax as part of the deal?

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If the arithmetic falls in that way and that is the will of the British

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people, fear taxes on those who are wealthiest, stuff that is fear,

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which includes wealth taxes, in order to fund more reductions for

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those people on lowest incomes, that is the sort of thing that we might

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reach agreement on. You voted with Labour on the spare room subsidy.

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Again, that would be job done in any future coalition talks with Labour,

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correct? I take the view that the spare room subsidy, whilst entirely

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fail in principle, in practice it has caused immense hardship. I want

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to see that changed. There are many people in government to share my

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view on that. So does Labour. The problem was largely caused Labour

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because they oversaw an increase in housing costs both 3.5 times while

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they were in power. The government was forced into a position to tidy

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up an appalling mess that Labour left. You voted with Labour against

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it, and also, you want... No, I voted with the party conference

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Let's not dance on the head of the ten. Maybe they voted with me. - on

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the head of a pin. You are also in favour of a 50% top rate of income

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tax, so you and Labour are that one there as well? No, I take the view

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that the top rate of income tax is a fluid thing. All taxation levels are

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temporary. Nick Clegg said that when the 50p rate came down to 45, that

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was a rather foolish price tag George Osborne asked for in return

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for as increasing the threshold and letting several million people out

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of paying income tax at the bottom. So you agree with Labour? In favour

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of rising the tax to 50p. I take the view that we should keep our minds

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open on that. It is not the income tax level that bothers me, it is

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whether the wealthy pay their fresh air. If that can be done through

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other taxes, then that is something that I am happy with. -- their fair

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share. Given your position on the top rate of tax, on the spare room

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subsidy, how does the prospect of another five years of coalition with

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the Tories strike you? The answer is, you react with whatever you have

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about you to what the electorate hand you. Whatever happens after the

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next election, you have got to respect the will of the people. Yes,

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but how do you feel about it? We know about this, I am asking for

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your feeling. Does your heart left or does your heart fall at the

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prospect of another five years with the Tories? My heart would always

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follow the prospect of anything other than a majority of Liberal

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Democrat government. Your heart must be permanently in your shoes then.

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Something like that, but when all is said and done, we accept the will of

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the electorate. When you stand for election, you have got to put up

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with what the electorate say. I have not found coalition as difficult as

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you might suggest. It is about people who have to disagree and

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agree to differ. You work with people in your daily life that you

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disagree with. It is what grown ups do. A lot of people in your party

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think that your positioning yourself to be the left-wing candidate in a

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post-Nick Clegg leadership contest. They think it is blatant

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manoeuvring. One senior figure says, this is about you. Which bit of the

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sanctimonious, treacherous little man is there not to like? What can I

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see in response to that. My job is to promote the Liberal Democrats. I

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have to do my best to consider what I'd defend to be right. By and

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large, my position as an MP in the Lake District, but also as the

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president of the party, is to reflect the will of people outside

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the Westminster village. That is the important thing to do. Thank you for

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joining us. David Cameron has said he wants to get it down to the tens

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of thousands, Ed Miliband has admitted New Labour "got it wrong",

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and Nick Clegg wants to be "zero-tolerant towards abuse". Yes,

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immigration is back on the political agenda, with figures released

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earlier this week showing that net migration is on the rise for the

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first time in two years. And that's not the only reason politicians are

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talking about it again. The issue of immigration has come

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into sharp focus because of concerns about the number of remaining ins

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and Bulgarians that can come to the UK next year. EU citizenship grants

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the right to free movement within the EU. But when Bulgaria and

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Romania joined in 2007, the government took up its right to

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apply temporary restrictions on movement. They must be lifted

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apply temporary restrictions on end of this year. According to the

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2011 census, about one eyed 1 million of the population in England

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and Wales is made up of people from countries who joined the EU in 004.

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The government has played down expectations that the skill of

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migration could be repeated. This week David Cameron announced new

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restrictions on the ability of EU migrants to claim benefits. That was

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two, send a message. That prompted criticism is that the UK risks being

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seen as a nasty country. Yvette Cooper joins me now for the Sunday

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interview. Welcome to the Sunday Politics, Yvette Cooper. You

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criticised the coalition for not acting sooner on immigration from

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Romania and Bulgaria but the timetable for the unrestricted

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arrival in January was agreed under Labour many years ago, and given the

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battle that you had with the Polish and the Hungarians, what

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preparations did you make in power? We think that we should learn from

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some of the things that happened with migration. It would have been

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better to have transitional controls in place and look at the impact of

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what happened. But what preparations did you make in power? We set out a

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series of measures that the Government still had time to bring

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in. It is important that this should be a calm and measured debate. There

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was time to bring in measures around benefit restrictions, for example,

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and looking at the impact on the labour market, to make sure you do

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not have exploitation of cheap migrant Labour which is bad for

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everyone. I know that but I have asked you before and I am asking

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again, what did you do? We got things wrong in Government. I

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understand that I am not arguing. You are criticising them not

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preparing, a legitimate criticism, but what did you do in power? Well,

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I did think we did enough. Did you do anything? We signed the agency

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workers directive but too slowly. We needed measures like that. We did

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support things like the social chapter and the minimum wage, but I

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have said before that we did not do enough and that is why we

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recommended the measures in March. I understand that is what you did in

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opposition and I take that. I put the general point to you that given

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your failure to introduce controls on the countries that joined in

:19:29.:19:33.

2004, alone among the major EU economies we did that, should we not

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keep an embarrassed silence on these matters? You have no credibility. I

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think you have got to talk about immigration. One of the things we

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did not do in Government was discussed immigration and the

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concerns people have and the long-term benefits that we know have

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come from people who have come to Britain over many generations

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contributing to Britain and having a big impact. I think we recognise

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that there are things that we did wrong, but it would be irresponsible

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for us not to join the debate and suggest sensible, practical measures

:20:05.:20:10.

that you can introduce now to address the concerns that people

:20:11.:20:14.

have, but also make sure that the system is fair and managed.

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Immigration is important to Britain but it does have to be controlled

:20:18.:20:21.

and managed in the right way. Let's remind ourselves of your record on

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immigration. The chart you did not consult when in power. This is total

:20:26.:20:31.

net migration per year under Labour. 2.2 million of net rise in

:20:32.:20:34.

migration, more than the population of Birmingham, you proud of that? --

:20:35.:20:45.

twice the population. Are you proud of that or apologising for it? We

:20:46.:20:49.

set the pace of immigration was too fat and the level was too high and

:20:50.:20:55.

it is right to bring migration down. So you think that was wrong?

:20:56.:20:59.

Overruled have been huge benefits from people that have come to

:21:00.:21:04.

Britain and built our biggest businesses. -- overall. They have

:21:05.:21:09.

become Olympic medal winners. But because the pace was too fast, that

:21:10.:21:14.

has had an impact. That was because of the lack of transitional controls

:21:15.:21:18.

from Eastern Europe and it is why we should learn from that and have

:21:19.:21:22.

sensible measures in place now, as part of what has got to be a calm

:21:23.:21:28.

debate. These are net migration figures. They don't often show the

:21:29.:21:32.

full figure. These are the immigration figures coming in. What

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that chart shows is that in terms of the gross number coming into this

:21:38.:21:42.

country, from the year 2000, it was half a million a year under Labour.

:21:43.:21:47.

Rising to 600,000 by the time you were out of power. A lot of people

:21:48.:21:52.

coming into these crowded islands, particularly since most of them come

:21:53.:21:57.

to London and the South East. Was that intentional? Was that out of

:21:58.:22:03.

control? Is that what you are now apologising for? What we said was

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that the Government got the figures wrong on the migration from Eastern

:22:09.:22:12.

Europe. If you remember particularly there was the issue of what happened

:22:13.:22:15.

with not having transitional controls in place. The Government

:22:16.:22:21.

didn't expect the number of people coming to the country to be the way

:22:22.:22:25.

it was. And so obviously mistakes were made. We have recognised that.

:22:26.:22:30.

We have also got to recognise that this is something that has happened

:22:31.:22:34.

in countries all over the world We travel and trade far more than ever.

:22:35.:22:39.

We have an increasingly globalised economy. Other European countries

:22:40.:22:43.

have been affected in the same way, and America, and other developing

:22:44.:22:47.

countries affected in the same way by the scale of migration. I am

:22:48.:22:51.

trying to work out whether the numbers were intentional or if you

:22:52.:22:56.

lost control. The key thing that we have said many times and I have

:22:57.:23:00.

already said it to you many times, Andrew, that we should have a

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transitional controls in place on Eastern Europe. I think that would

:23:05.:23:07.

have had an impact on them level of migration. We also should have

:23:08.:23:12.

brought in the points -based system earlier. We did bring that in

:23:13.:23:16.

towards the end and it did restrict the level of low skilled migration

:23:17.:23:20.

because there are different kinds of migration. University students

:23:21.:23:23.

coming to Britain brings in billions of pounds of investment. On the

:23:24.:23:27.

other hand, low skilled migration can have a serious impact on the

:23:28.:23:31.

jobs market, pay levels and so on at the low skilled end of the labour

:23:32.:23:37.

market. We have to distinguish between different kinds of

:23:38.:23:41.

migration. You keep trying to excuse the figures by talking about the

:23:42.:23:44.

lack of transitional controls. Can we skip the chart I was going to go

:23:45.:23:50.

to? The next one. Under Labour, this is the source of where migrants came

:23:51.:23:56.

from. The main source was not the accession countries or the remainder

:23:57.:23:59.

of Europe. Overwhelmingly they were from the African Commonwealth, and

:24:00.:24:05.

the Indian subcontinent. Overwhelmingly, these numbers are

:24:06.:24:09.

nothing to do with transitional controls. You can control that

:24:10.:24:12.

immigration entirely because they are not part of the EU. Was that a

:24:13.:24:18.

mistake? First of all, the big increase was in the accession

:24:19.:24:23.

groups. Not according to the chart. In terms of the increase, the

:24:24.:24:28.

changes that happened. Secondly in answer to the question that you just

:24:29.:24:32.

asked me, we should also have introduced the points -based system

:24:33.:24:36.

at an earlier stage. Thirdly there has been a big increase in the

:24:37.:24:39.

number of university students coming to Britain and they have brought

:24:40.:24:42.

billions of pounds of investment. At the moment the Government is not

:24:43.:24:47.

distinguishing, it is just using the figure of net migration. And that is

:24:48.:24:51.

starting to go up again, as you said in the introduction, but the problem

:24:52.:24:54.

is that it treats all kinds of migration is aimed. It does not

:24:55.:24:59.

address illegal immigration, which is a problem, but it treats

:25:00.:25:03.

university graduates coming to Britain in the same way as low

:25:04.:25:08.

skilled workers. If Labour get back into power, is it your ambition to

:25:09.:25:13.

bring down immigration? We have already said it is too high and we

:25:14.:25:16.

would support measures to bring it down. You would bring it down? There

:25:17.:25:21.

is something called student visas, which is not included in the

:25:22.:25:26.

figures, and it does not include university graduates, and it is a

:25:27.:25:30.

figure that has increased substantially in recent years. They

:25:31.:25:40.

come for short-term study but they do not even have to prove that they

:25:41.:25:43.

come for a college course. They do not even have to have a place to

:25:44.:25:46.

come. Those visas should be restricted to prevent abuse of the

:25:47.:25:49.

system and that is in line with a recommendation from the Inspectorate

:25:50.:25:51.

and that is the kind of practical thing that we could do. Can you give

:25:52.:25:54.

us a ballpark figure of how much immigration would fall? You have

:25:55.:25:59.

seen the mess that Theresa May has got into with her figures. She made

:26:00.:26:04.

a target that it is clear to me that she will not meet. I think that is

:26:05.:26:27.

right. She will not meet it. Can you give as a ballpark figure by which

:26:28.:26:30.

we can judge you? If she had been more sensible and taken more time to

:26:31.:26:33.

listen to experts and decide what measures should be targeted, then

:26:34.:26:35.

she would not be in this mess. You cannot give me a figure? She has

:26:36.:26:38.

chosen net migration. She has set a target, without ifs and buts. I

:26:39.:26:41.

think it is important not to have a massive gap between the rhetoric and

:26:42.:26:43.

reality. Not to make promises on numbers which are not responsible.

:26:44.:26:46.

OK, you won't give me a figure. Fine. Moving on to crime. 10,00

:26:47.:26:51.

front line police jobs have gone since 2010 but crime continues to

:26:52.:26:56.

fall. 7% down last year alone. When you told the Labour conference that

:26:57.:27:00.

you do not cut crime by cutting the police, you were wrong. I think the

:27:01.:27:05.

Government is being very complacent about what is happening to crime.

:27:06.:27:09.

Crime patterns are changing. There has been an exponential increase,

:27:10.:27:13.

and that is in the words of the police, in online crime. We have

:27:14.:27:22.

also seen, for example, domestic violence going up, but prosecutions

:27:23.:27:27.

dropping dramatically. There is a serious impact as a result of not

:27:28.:27:32.

having 10,000 police in place. You have talked about the exponential

:27:33.:27:35.

increase in online and economic crime. If those are the big growth

:27:36.:27:39.

areas, why have bobbies on the beat? That would make no difference. It is

:27:40.:27:46.

about an approach to policing that has been incredibly successful over

:27:47.:27:49.

many years, which Labour introduced, which is neighbourhood policing in

:27:50.:27:53.

the community is working hard with communities to prevent crime. People

:27:54.:27:57.

like to see bobbies on the beat but have you got any evidence that it

:27:58.:28:01.

leads to a reduction in crime? Interestingly, the Lords Stevens

:28:02.:28:06.

commission that we set up, they have reported this week and it has been

:28:07.:28:09.

the equivalent of a Royal commission, looking at the number of

:28:10.:28:15.

people involved in it. Their strong recommendation was that this is

:28:16.:28:17.

about preventing crime but also respectful law and order, working

:28:18.:28:21.

with communities, and so they strongly took the view with all of

:28:22.:28:25.

their expertise and the 30 different universities that they have involved

:28:26.:28:29.

with it, that on the basis of all that analysis, the right thing was

:28:30.:28:32.

to keep bobbies on the beat and not push them cars. Instinctively you

:28:33.:28:39.

would think it was true. More visible policing, less crime. But in

:28:40.:28:44.

all the criminology work, I cannot find the evidence. There is

:28:45.:28:47.

competing work about why there has been a 20 year drop in overall crime

:28:48.:28:52.

and everybody has different opinions on why that has happened. The point

:28:53.:28:55.

about neighbourhood policing is that it is broader than crime-fighting.

:28:56.:29:00.

It is about prevention and community safety. Improving the well-being of

:29:01.:29:06.

communities as well. Will you keep the elected Police Commissioners?

:29:07.:29:12.

Big sigh! What the report said was that the system is flawed. We raised

:29:13.:29:17.

concern about this at the beginning. You will remember at the elections,

:29:18.:29:22.

Theresa May's flagship policy, at the elections they cost ?100 million

:29:23.:29:28.

and there was 15% turnout. You have to have a system of accountability

:29:29.:29:33.

at the police. Three options were presented, all of which are forms.

:29:34.:29:38.

So you have to have reform. It is not whether to have reformed, it is

:29:39.:29:42.

which of those options is the best way to do it. The commission set out

:29:43.:29:53.

a series of options, and I thought that the preferable approach would

:29:54.:29:59.

be collaboration and voluntary mergers. We know they won't

:30:00.:30:03.

volunteer. There have been some collaboration is taking place. I

:30:04.:30:07.

think the issues with police and crime commissioners have fragmented

:30:08.:30:12.

things and made it harder to get collaboration between police

:30:13.:30:16.

forces. Everybody is asking this question, just before you go. What

:30:17.:30:22.

is it like living with a nightmare? Who does all the cooking, so I can't

:30:23.:30:28.

complain! Says Miliband people are wrong, he is a dream cook? He is!

:30:29.:30:37.

In a speech this week, Boris Johnson praised greed and envy as essential

:30:38.:30:41.

for economic progress, and that has got tongues wagging. What is the

:30:42.:30:45.

Mayor of London up to? What is his game plan? Does he even have a game

:30:46.:30:51.

plan and does he know if he has one? Flash photography coming up. Boris.

:30:52.:30:59.

In many ways I can leave it there. You'd know who I meant. And if you

:31:00.:31:02.

didn't, the unruly mop of blonde hair would tell you, the language.

:31:03.:31:14.

Ping-pong was invented on the dining tables of England. Somehow pulling

:31:15.:31:31.

off the ridiculous to the sublime. It is going to go zoink off the

:31:32.:31:34.

scale! But often having to speed away from the whiff-whaff of

:31:35.:31:40.

scandal. Boris, are you going to save your manage?

:31:41.:31:42.

There's always been a question about him and his as role as mayor and

:31:43.:31:45.

another prized position, as hinted to the Tory faithful this year at

:31:46.:31:48.

conference, discussing former French Prime Minister Alan Juppe. -- Alain

:31:49.:31:59.

Juppe. He told me he was going to be the mayor of Bordeaux. I think he

:32:00.:32:04.

may have been mayor well he was Prime Minister, it is the kind of

:32:05.:32:09.

thing they do in funds -- AvD in France. It is a good idea, if you

:32:10.:32:17.

ask me. But is it a joke? He is much more ambitious. Boris wants to be

:32:18.:32:21.

Prime Minister more than anything else. Perhaps more than he wants to

:32:22.:32:28.

be made of London. The ball came loose from the back of the scrum. Of

:32:29.:32:35.

course it would give great thing to have a crack at, but it is not going

:32:36.:32:42.

to happen. He might be right. First, the Conservatives have a leader

:32:43.:32:44.

another Old Etonian, Oxford, Bullingdon chap and he has the job

:32:45.:32:49.

Boris might like a crack at. What do you do with a problem like Boris? It

:32:50.:32:55.

is one of the great paradoxes of Tory politics that for Boris Johnson

:32:56.:33:01.

to succeed, David Cameron must feel. Boris needs David Cameron to lose so

:33:02.:33:05.

that he can stand a chance of becoming loser. -- becoming leader.

:33:06.:33:08.

And disloyalty is punished by Conservatives. Boris knows the man

:33:09.:33:11.

who brought down Margaret Thatcher. Michael Heseltine, who Boris

:33:12.:33:14.

replaced as MP for Henley, never got her job. In 1986, she took on the

:33:15.:33:20.

member for Henley, always a risky venture. And why might he make such

:33:21.:33:31.

a jibe, because he's won two more elections than the PM. Conservatives

:33:32.:33:36.

like a winner. Boris, against Robert expectations, has won the Mayor of

:33:37.:33:50.

London job twice. -- public. He might've built a following with the

:33:51.:33:53.

grassroots but he's on shakier ground with many Tory MPs, who see

:33:54.:33:56.

him as a selfish clown, unfit for high office. And besides, he's not

:33:57.:34:03.

the only one with king-sized ambition, and Boris and George are

:34:04.:34:06.

not close, however much they may profess unity. There is probably

:34:07.:34:16.

some Chinese expression for a complete and perfect harmony. Ying

:34:17.:34:20.

and yang. But in plain black and white, if Boris has a plan, it's one

:34:21.:34:23.

he can't instigate, and if David Cameron is PM in 2016, it may not be

:34:24.:34:29.

implementable. He'd need a seat and it wouldn't be plain sailing if he

:34:30.:34:36.

did make a leadership bid. My leadership chances, I think I may

:34:37.:34:40.

have told you before, or about as good as my chances of ying

:34:41.:34:44.

reincarnated as a baked bean. Which is probably quite high. So if the

:34:45.:34:48.

job you want with Brown-esque desire is potentially never to be yours

:34:49.:34:54.

what do you do? He is, of course, an American citizen by birth. He was

:34:55.:35:00.

born in New York public hospital, and so he is qualified to be

:35:01.:35:05.

President of the United States. And you don't need an IQ over 16 to find

:35:06.:35:09.

that the tiniest bit scary. Giles Dilnot reporting. Helen Lewis,

:35:10.:35:16.

Janan Ganesh and Sam Coates are here. Is there a plan for Boris and

:35:17.:35:23.

if so, what is it? I think the plan is for him to say what he thinks the

:35:24.:35:26.

Tory activist base wants to hear just now. He knows that in 18 months

:35:27.:35:33.

time they can disown it. I think he is wrong, the way the speech has

:35:34.:35:37.

played has a limited number of people. He has cross-party appeal.

:35:38.:35:44.

He has now reconfirmed to people that the Tories are the nasty party

:35:45.:35:47.

and they have been pretending to be modernised. Is it not the truth that

:35:48.:35:54.

he needs David Cameron to lose the 2015 election to become leader in

:35:55.:35:59.

this decade? It is very interesting watching his fortunes wax and wane.

:36:00.:36:06.

It always seems to happen in inverse proportion to how well David Cameron

:36:07.:36:10.

is doing in front of his own party. There is no small element of

:36:11.:36:13.

strategy about what we are doing here. The problem with Boris is that

:36:14.:36:18.

he's popular with the country, but not with the party's MPs and its

:36:19.:36:24.

hard-core supporters. This was an appeal to the grassroots this week.

:36:25.:36:28.

He is not the only potential candidate. If we were in some kind

:36:29.:36:36.

of circumstance where Boris was a runner to replace Mr Cameron, who

:36:37.:36:41.

with the other front the? I think it will skip a generation. The recent

:36:42.:36:50.

intake was ideological assertive. I do not buy the idea that it will be

:36:51.:36:55.

Jeremy Hunt against Michael Gove. I then, that generation will be

:36:56.:37:03.

tainted by being in government. It is interesting, what is he trying to

:37:04.:37:10.

pull? He is ideological. He does not believe in many things, but he

:37:11.:37:13.

believes in a few things quite deeply, and one is the idea of

:37:14.:37:18.

competition, both in business and academic selection. He has never

:37:19.:37:22.

been squeamish about expressing that. We do make mistakes sometimes,

:37:23.:37:32.

assuming he is entirely political. Look at all the Northern voters who

:37:33.:37:35.

will not vote for the Tories even though they are socially or economic

:37:36.:37:42.

the Conservatives. I do not think he helps. Who in the Tories would

:37:43.:37:49.

help? That is a tough question. To reason me has also been speaking to

:37:50.:37:58.

the hard right. -- Theresa May. I have been out with him at night. It

:37:59.:38:03.

is like dining with a film star. People are queueing up to speak to

:38:04.:38:08.

him. Educational selection is one of the few areas that he can offer. He

:38:09.:38:13.

has gone liberal on immigration, as are made of London would have to.

:38:14.:38:37.

Coming up later, should we be allowed to walk the whole length of

:38:38.:38:42.

the south coast? Some landowners are impressed with lands for footpaths

:38:43.:38:52.

on their land next to the C. `` next to the seaside.

:38:53.:39:06.

My second guest was recently selected at an American`style

:39:07.:39:13.

primary. They are out to launch their Westminster career is just as

:39:14.:39:17.

another south`east MP and it is house is nearly over. Laura Sands

:39:18.:39:23.

will not be contesting the next election. She has been a popular MP.

:39:24.:39:27.

He was what happened when she stood up to ask a question of the Prime

:39:28.:39:38.

Minister. I think they were cheering, not

:39:39.:39:43.

booing, but it is hard to tell the difference in Westminster. UK are

:39:44.:39:48.

having a field day, saying that she is running scared `` the UK

:39:49.:40:00.

Independence Party. She says the only thing that would have kept her

:40:01.:40:09.

there was the UKIP challenge. Everyone speaking about her has said

:40:10.:40:15.

that she is one hell of a fighter. I do not believe the UKIP line. What

:40:16.:40:26.

she has done is really change a constituency and work hard for the

:40:27.:40:30.

people. She has delivered amazing results and made herself incredibly

:40:31.:40:36.

popular. What is significant for both of you

:40:37.:40:38.

is that I is that is that there is clearly admission

:40:39.:40:44.

that politics is really tough. Do you think you are prepared for what

:40:45.:40:50.

might be coming your way if you are elected?

:40:51.:40:53.

I hope I am prepared. I have certainly done enough work to

:40:54.:41:00.

prepare myself, talking to other MPs and Lords to get a sense of what

:41:01.:41:05.

their life is about. I topped the decision through with my family.

:41:06.:41:10.

Would you be prepared to put politics before your family?

:41:11.:41:16.

20 years ago I decided I wouldn't but 20 years later it is the right

:41:17.:41:21.

time. You have a new baby so how will you

:41:22.:41:29.

feel about walking away from it? That's right but I have a military

:41:30.:41:37.

background and an used to being away in service of my country. Part of

:41:38.:41:49.

the service and duty ethos that I've been brought up with our those

:41:50.:41:56.

things that will allow me to be away for what is only a few days in the

:41:57.:42:03.

week, not six to nine months at a time.

:42:04.:42:10.

Among women of my age domestic violence is the biggest killer.

:42:11.:42:16.

There are many more women than men who never speak out about the abuse.

:42:17.:42:22.

But the money being spent on services for vulnerable woman has

:42:23.:42:40.

been capped. `` cuts. The abuse usually takes place behind

:42:41.:42:46.

closed doors. Domestic violence may be heading but it is widespread.

:42:47.:42:52.

Support services are under threat and the south`east has been

:42:53.:42:57.

particularly badly hit. James survived domestic violence both as a

:42:58.:43:05.

child and as an adult when her ex husband turned controlling, abusive

:43:06.:43:15.

and eventually violent `` Jane. He pushed me into a road, he tried to

:43:16.:43:23.

rape me. He leapt on me in the middle of the night. He was a big

:43:24.:43:29.

guy. I left and got divorced and bought my own house and that was

:43:30.:43:34.

only through sheer determination that I didn't want to be in that

:43:35.:43:38.

situation anymore. I had the back`up of my friends and family and they

:43:39.:43:44.

kept me strong and encouraged me to keep going. Without them I couldn't

:43:45.:43:59.

have done it. Jane is rebuilding her life but

:44:00.:44:07.

charities say that there has been a loss of specialist services,

:44:08.:44:11.

services run by staff who have experience of working specifically

:44:12.:44:17.

with the mystic violence victims. Here in the south`east, seven

:44:18.:44:21.

specialist services were lost in the last three years, more than anywhere

:44:22.:44:26.

else in the country. There were replaced by big general services.

:44:27.:44:31.

Campaigners say that these black services to support women at risk ``

:44:32.:44:43.

lack the services. This domestic abuse service in Thanet helps woman

:44:44.:44:50.

escape abusive relationships and support those who want to remain in

:44:51.:44:58.

the family home. Staff have to concentrate on face helping women at

:44:59.:45:11.

the highest risk due to cut budgets. Sometimes we ask ourselves if we are

:45:12.:45:14.

putting a sticking plaster on a gaping wound. We are at the sharp

:45:15.:45:23.

end of the work, people who have to flee to refuge because they are

:45:24.:45:28.

unsafe. By that point people get to that, there is so much that could

:45:29.:45:33.

have been done before. This is one of the bedrooms in the

:45:34.:45:38.

refuge. There is space for mum and two children. There have been cut to

:45:39.:45:48.

these kinds of safe houses. There has been a cut of 15% since 2010.

:45:49.:46:00.

One reason why there is a looming crisis is a 30% cut in funding. The

:46:01.:46:06.

ring`fencing budgets for a specialist domestic violence

:46:07.:46:12.

services was lifted in 2009 and the current coalition government has

:46:13.:46:17.

reinforced its commitment to letting local councils decide how to spend

:46:18.:46:22.

the funding. But campaigners argue that small specialist charities are

:46:23.:46:27.

unable to compete in the tendering process run by councils when they

:46:28.:46:31.

decide who should provide the mystic violence services.

:46:32.:46:36.

They are not looking at the pattern of violence. One person had to look

:46:37.:46:48.

after another residence children while she was trying to throw

:46:49.:46:57.

herself out of the window. On average, two women every week are

:46:58.:47:03.

killed by their current or former partners. Jane fears for others who

:47:04.:47:14.

don't get the help she received. People lose their lives because of

:47:15.:47:18.

this. If they cut the services, more people will die.

:47:19.:47:27.

I'm joins by Amber Rudd, the Conservative MP for Hastings and

:47:28.:47:34.

drive. Councils are spending less on vulnerable people, including women

:47:35.:47:38.

and children at risk of domestic abuse. We are going backwards and

:47:39.:47:52.

not for words I don't think so but I take very seriously what I have

:47:53.:48:01.

heard. Councils have an obligation to

:48:02.:48:08.

provide refugees and there are many ways of doing that. The other thing

:48:09.:48:13.

I picked up was the comment about a sticking plaster. We have to make

:48:14.:48:19.

sure that we constantly get the message out about domestic

:48:20.:48:25.

violence, that it is unacceptable. We have to start in schools. It

:48:26.:48:30.

should not be hidden away. I was pleased that Clare's Law was brought

:48:31.:48:38.

in that allows women to find out about the violent past of potential

:48:39.:48:44.

partners. We take domestic violence very seriously.

:48:45.:48:50.

You may take it seriously but do you trust local authorities to spend an

:48:51.:48:53.

appropriate amount of money? You rightly said that Labour got bit of

:48:54.:48:59.

the ring`fencing of this budget but you haven't put it back. They just

:49:00.:49:03.

get their general pot of cash and have to decide what to do with it.

:49:04.:49:12.

You cannot stop the council spending money meant for domestic violence on

:49:13.:49:17.

fixing potholes. Shouldn't the government be taking more control?

:49:18.:49:26.

No, local councils are the best to know what to do with the money. They

:49:27.:49:32.

will not fix potholes over saving lives.

:49:33.:49:35.

So why has the money being spent on vulnerable people gone down by 30%

:49:36.:49:41.

in the last five years? They may have bind other ways ``

:49:42.:49:58.

found other ways. The Home Office has put in an additional ?40 million

:49:59.:50:07.

that goes direct to refuges. This government for the first time this

:50:08.:50:10.

putting rape crisis centres on a level funding. We put in another 3.5

:50:11.:50:18.

million. We are doing as much as we can and are pushing forward. Nobody

:50:19.:50:25.

underestimates the importance of it so we are putting pressure on local

:50:26.:50:28.

councils. Thank you for joining us. This is a

:50:29.:50:35.

field of expertise for you. You've done a Ph.D. On women's resistance

:50:36.:50:46.

to domestic violence. But it was the Labour Party who took the

:50:47.:50:53.

ring`fencing away. They allow councils to spend that money on

:50:54.:51:00.

anything they like. So that was a mistake? Well let's see what the

:51:01.:51:13.

results are. There is a politics here we need to think about. The

:51:14.:51:21.

impact is that vulnerable women are not being served, if so we need to

:51:22.:51:30.

protect and enhance the nature of specialist services.

:51:31.:51:38.

Those figures we looked at with those seven services being cut. That

:51:39.:51:42.

is your biggest concern, that we are losing the expertise of helping

:51:43.:51:48.

women and indeed men in these situations?

:51:49.:51:52.

What is really important is that specialist services, people who know

:51:53.:51:57.

what it is really like to deal with the trauma, the fear, the

:51:58.:52:08.

disruption, the scaling issues `` schooling issues. The task is to

:52:09.:52:17.

offer continued support and understanding and counselling and a

:52:18.:52:27.

whole range of services. You have to understand what women are going

:52:28.:52:30.

through and the range of services they need and that has to be

:52:31.:52:38.

protected. Let's look at who makes the decision

:52:39.:52:45.

about the funding. Your party is all for local democracy and local

:52:46.:52:48.

authorities making the decision on where they spend money but they are

:52:49.:52:51.

spending less money on victims of domestic abuse. Do you trust them?

:52:52.:53:01.

I trust people to elect who they want at every level of government. I

:53:02.:53:07.

hope they will trust me to be the representative in Westminster. This

:53:08.:53:12.

is about people deciding who they want to represent them and how did

:53:13.:53:17.

this bend `` how they spend that money. What we're looking at is a

:53:18.:53:24.

government that is trying to get its hands on a budget that was

:53:25.:53:28.

completely out of control and in order to do so it has had to rein in

:53:29.:53:32.

some of the funding from some of the more egregious areas of spending.

:53:33.:53:41.

Some are acknowledging that Labour have made a mistake here.

:53:42.:53:46.

The idea that everything should be done by Westminster is wrong. What

:53:47.:53:52.

about the responsibility of government to protect the most

:53:53.:53:59.

vulnerable individuals? The government does have that

:54:00.:54:02.

responsibility and that is why to raise me `` Theresa May has been

:54:03.:54:12.

introducing measures. There has been 100 cases where police have

:54:13.:54:19.

intervened. Clare's Law must help someone in but

:54:20.:54:25.

it alone with the backdrop of services being cut does not address

:54:26.:54:32.

the issue. You cannot get more local than domestic violence. You have to

:54:33.:54:40.

prioritise the experience that women have in their own home.

:54:41.:54:46.

This isn't only about women. It affects one in six men in their

:54:47.:54:54.

lives. Another question for you to think

:54:55.:54:58.

about. Should you have the right to walk anywhere you like along the

:54:59.:55:03.

south coast? Plans are in place to run a foot path along the whole of

:55:04.:55:11.

the coastline. Not everybody was keen on the idea. Landowners are

:55:12.:55:21.

seeing now to people walking on their lands, that's all a bit

:55:22.:55:27.

predictable, isn't it? You could say that Bartz the

:55:28.:55:44.

government has `` you could say that but we have tried to follow the

:55:45.:55:52.

Welsh model of using the highways act to bridge those gaps. So you're

:55:53.:56:00.

looking for a bit of the compensation, a bit of a pay`out for

:56:01.:56:09.

the landowners. Yes, it is private property. If you

:56:10.:56:19.

have your own private property, why shouldn't you be compensated for

:56:20.:56:23.

people using it? What would you be compensated for?

:56:24.:56:27.

What are the downsides of people walking on it?

:56:28.:56:34.

You are potentially losing value on the land because you cannot use it

:56:35.:56:50.

exclusively for your own use. If the cliff falls into the sea, we

:56:51.:56:54.

get a bit more of your lands to walk on?

:56:55.:56:59.

Correct. Do you have sympathy for the

:57:00.:57:02.

landowners? I do that I'll so have `` I also

:57:03.:57:18.

have sympathy for the walkers. We are walking around some of the most

:57:19.:57:22.

beautiful coastlines in the world and it is a fantastic opportunity

:57:23.:57:28.

for people to get out and exercise. There is a landowner issue and I

:57:29.:57:33.

understand what the gentleman was saying about getting the rights

:57:34.:57:36.

appropriately balanced I think there is a I is a

:57:37.:57:37.

is a bit of work to do on this. Someone from the Ramblers

:57:38.:57:46.

Association described this as a bed victory for everyone who walks on

:57:47.:57:59.

our island. Do we all have the right to walk on someone else's land?

:58:00.:58:07.

If it is someone else's land, there is an issue, but this is about

:58:08.:58:17.

making it public land. That is an important right that was enshrined

:58:18.:58:23.

by the last government. We live in the most beautiful part of the

:58:24.:58:27.

country and people should be able to enjoy that for free. We have a

:58:28.:58:32.

problem with obesity in this country and this is a fantastic proposal to

:58:33.:58:38.

get everybody out with rights of access and fresh air to enjoy the

:58:39.:58:41.

wonderful countryside. You don't need every part of the

:58:42.:58:47.

countryside joined up to encourage people to go out for a walk though.

:58:48.:58:53.

You used to be able to rely on the countryside for core support. But it

:58:54.:59:01.

seems the Conservative Party have annoyed some people in the

:59:02.:59:06.

countryside. I think you will find that David

:59:07.:59:11.

Cameron is the Prime Minister of the whole of the United Kingdom and not

:59:12.:59:14.

a special lobbyist for the countryside.

:59:15.:59:19.

But you need everybody to get out of coalition.

:59:20.:59:24.

Yes and I think you will find we will reach that in the next

:59:25.:59:29.

election. You are right that we needs to keep our links with the

:59:30.:59:37.

countryside and I am fortunate enough to be living in the

:59:38.:59:45.

countryside. Farmers will know where to come next

:59:46.:59:50.

spring then. Time for a round`up of the week.

:59:51.:59:57.

12 children centres are to close in Kent as part of a cost`cutting

:59:58.:00:02.

drive. 11 others which were earmarked for closure will now be

:00:03.:00:05.

speared, costing an extra ?5000 in two years. Council bosses claim they

:00:06.:00:09.

have made sure the most vulnerable don't lose out.

:00:10.:00:13.

Earlier this week, I was tested for HIV.

:00:14.:00:16.

Brighton Kemptown MP Simon Kirby used Prime Minister's Questions to

:00:17.:00:19.

raise annual World AIDS Day. Brighton and Hove has the highest

:00:20.:00:22.

prevalence of people with HIV outside London and the rate is

:00:23.:00:27.

rising. Around one in five don't know they have virus.

:00:28.:00:32.

It is a brave man who bets against the All Blacks when it comes to

:00:33.:00:36.

rugby but David Cameron did just that when he promised the New

:00:37.:00:39.

Zealand PM he would wear a pair of Kiwi cuff links designed by a

:00:40.:00:43.

jeweller in Brighton if he lost. I did so last week but fortunately

:00:44.:00:45.

nobody noticed. And days after the PM got into

:00:46.:00:48.

trouble for suggesting an opposition MP may have taken mind`altering

:00:49.:00:52.

drugs, a Labour MP asked the MP for Lewes Norman Baker if he had had

:00:53.:00:54.

mind`altering surgery before becoming the Drugs Minister.

:00:55.:00:58.

Had I had a lobotomy, I wouldn't be able to answer that question.

:00:59.:01:07.

You have both just done your first television interviews as prospective

:01:08.:01:14.

parliamentary candidates. I was at? It should have been longer. It was

:01:15.:01:19.

great fun. That's all we've got time for this

:01:20.:01:20.

week. Goodbye. touching on eugenics and things like

:01:21.:01:26.

that. That is all we have time for. Thank you.

:01:27.:01:27.

that. That is all we have time for. Thank you. What rabbit has George

:01:28.:01:44.

Osborne got up his sleeve? And what's David Cameron up to in China?

:01:45.:01:50.

All questions for The Week Ahead. To help the panel led, we are joined by

:01:51.:01:56.

Kwasi Kwarteng, Tory MP. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Why has the

:01:57.:02:02.

government been unable to move the agenda and to the broad economic

:02:03.:02:07.

recovery, and allowed the agenda to stay on Labour's ground of energy

:02:08.:02:12.

prices and living standards? Energy has been a big issue over the last

:02:13.:02:17.

few months but the autumn state and will be a wonderful opportunity to

:02:18.:02:20.

readdress where we are fighting the ground, the good economic news that

:02:21.:02:25.

we delivered. If you look at where Labour were earlier this year,

:02:26.:02:30.

people were saying they would they 5 million people unemployed. They were

:02:31.:02:35.

saying that there should be a plan B. He is not in the Labour Party?

:02:36.:02:43.

Elements of the left were suggesting it. Peter Hain told me it would be

:02:44.:02:48.

up to 3 million people. Danny Blanchflower said it would be 5

:02:49.:02:54.

million people. So we have got to get the economy back to the centre

:02:55.:02:59.

of the debate? Yes, the game we were playing was about the economy. That

:03:00.:03:04.

was the central fighting ground of the political debate. We were

:03:05.:03:09.

winning that battle. Labour have cleverly shifted it onto the cost of

:03:10.:03:13.

living. It is essential that the government, that George, talks about

:03:14.:03:18.

the economy. That has been its great success. I do not think this has

:03:19.:03:27.

been a week of admitting that Labour was right, plain cigarettes

:03:28.:03:34.

packaging, other issues. If you look at the big picture, where we are

:03:35.:03:39.

with the economy, we have the fastest growing economy in the G-7.

:03:40.:03:44.

Despite Labour's predictions, none of this has happened, none of the

:03:45.:03:50.

triple dip has happened. The British economy is on a good fitting. That

:03:51.:03:53.

is a good story for the government to bat on. You say that people have

:03:54.:03:59.

stopped talking about the economic recovery, but it is worse than that,

:04:00.:04:02.

people have stopped talking about the deficit? As long as people were

:04:03.:04:08.

talking about the deficit, the Tories were trusted. But people have

:04:09.:04:15.

forgotten about it. This country still spends ?100 billion more than

:04:16.:04:19.

it raises. Yes, I am of the view that the deficit, the national

:04:20.:04:25.

debt, is the biggest question facing this generation of politicians. You

:04:26.:04:29.

are right to suggest that the Conservative Party was strong on

:04:30.:04:36.

this. That head, not deficit, is not going to come down in the

:04:37.:04:42.

foreseeable future? It is rising. This is a test that George Osborne

:04:43.:04:45.

is not going to pass. We know what is coming in the Autumn Statement,

:04:46.:04:50.

it is lots of giveaways, paying for free school meals, paying for fuel

:04:51.:04:55.

duty subsidies. We are still talking about the cost of living, not

:04:56.:05:00.

changing it actively wider economy. There might be extra money for

:05:01.:05:05.

growth but it is not clear what will happen to that. If it is time for

:05:06.:05:12.

giveaways, let's speak about Labour. I have never been a fan of

:05:13.:05:18.

giveaways. Fiscal prudence is what our watchword should be. Look at the

:05:19.:05:24.

headlines. Each time, the deficit figures, the debt figures, were

:05:25.:05:29.

always worse than predicted. This year it will be significantly

:05:30.:05:36.

better. I think that is significant. Any kind of recovery is probably

:05:37.:05:40.

better than no recovery at all. When you look at this recovery, it is

:05:41.:05:46.

basically a consumer spending boom. Consumer spending is up, business

:05:47.:05:51.

investment is way down compared with 2008, and exports, despite a 20

:05:52.:05:59.

devaluation, our flat. Let's get one thing straight, it is a recovery.

:06:00.:06:03.

Any recovery is better than no recovery. Now we can have a debate

:06:04.:06:11.

about, technical debate about the elements of the recovery. It is not

:06:12.:06:15.

technical, it is a fact. There is evidence that there is optimism in

:06:16.:06:20.

terms of what are thinking... Optimism? If I am optimistic about

:06:21.:06:27.

the economy, I am more likely to spend money and invest in business.

:06:28.:06:33.

So far you have not managed that? Exports have not done well either?

:06:34.:06:38.

Exports are not a big section of the British economy. But of course, they

:06:39.:06:44.

are important. But given where we were at the end of last year, no

:06:45.:06:49.

economist was saying that we would be in this robust position today.

:06:50.:06:53.

That is true, in terms of the overall recovery. Now the PM loves

:06:54.:07:01.

to "bang the drum abroad for British business" and he's off to China this

:07:02.:07:04.

evening with a plane-load of British business leaders. And it's not the

:07:05.:07:06.

first time. Take a look at this Well, you might not think exports

:07:07.:08:00.

unimportant, but clearly the Prime Minister and the Chancellor do. They

:08:01.:08:05.

are important, but they are not what is driving the growth at the moment.

:08:06.:08:10.

We used to talk about the need for export led recovery is, that is why

:08:11.:08:14.

the Prime Minister is going to China. Absolutely, and he's doing

:08:15.:08:20.

the right thing. Do we have any evidence that these tend of trips

:08:21.:08:25.

produce business? The main example so far is the right to trade the

:08:26.:08:30.

Chinese currency offshore. London has a kind of global primacy. London

:08:31.:08:35.

will be the offshore centre. Is that a good thing? I have no problem at

:08:36.:08:41.

all with this sort of policy. I do not think that Britain has been

:08:42.:08:44.

doing this enough compared with France and Germany in recent years.

:08:45.:08:48.

I am optimistic in the long term about this dish -- about British

:08:49.:08:56.

exports to China. China need machine tools and manufacturing products. In

:08:57.:09:02.

20 years time, China will be buying professional groups, educational

:09:03.:09:07.

services, the things we excel at. All we need to do is consolidate our

:09:08.:09:11.

strengths, stand still and we will move forward. The worst thing we can

:09:12.:09:16.

do is reengineer the economy towards those services and away from

:09:17.:09:20.

something else. We have a lot of ground to make up, Helen? At one

:09:21.:09:27.

stage, it is no longer true, but at one stage you could say that we

:09:28.:09:32.

exported more to Ireland, a country of 4 million people, than we did to

:09:33.:09:37.

Russia, China, India, Brazil, all combined. I believe we form 1% of

:09:38.:09:47.

Chinese imports now. The problem is what you have to give up in exchange

:09:48.:09:52.

for that. It is a big problem for David Cameron's credibility that he

:09:53.:09:55.

has had to row back on his meeting with the Dalai llama. This trip we

:09:56.:10:02.

have been in the deep freeze with China for a couple of years. This

:10:03.:10:08.

trip has come at a high cost. We have had to open up the City of

:10:09.:10:12.

London to Chinese banks without much scrutiny, we have had to move the

:10:13.:10:15.

date of the Autumn Statement, and there is no mention of human rights.

:10:16.:10:21.

It is awkward to deal with that all in the name of getting up to where

:10:22.:10:25.

we were a few years ago. A month after strong anchor -- one month

:10:26.:10:33.

after Sri Lanka, where he apologised three human rights abuses, this is

:10:34.:10:39.

difficult to take. Do we have any idea what the Prime Minister hopes

:10:40.:10:43.

to do in China this time? I am not sure there is anything specific but

:10:44.:10:46.

when you go to these countries, certainly in the Middle East China,

:10:47.:10:51.

they complain, why has the Prime Minister not come to see us? That is

:10:52.:10:58.

very important. High-level delegations from other countries go

:10:59.:11:03.

to these places because the addict -- because they are important export

:11:04.:11:14.

markets. You might look at the Prime Minister playing cricket over there,

:11:15.:11:19.

and wonder, what is that for? I do not mind the Prime Minister Rajoy

:11:20.:11:23.

cricket. This is a high visibility mission, chose that politicians in

:11:24.:11:29.

Britain care. You are part of the free enterprise group. It had all

:11:30.:11:33.

sorts of things on it like tax cuts for those on middle incomes or above

:11:34.:11:39.

the 40% bracket, tax cuts worth 16 billion. You will get none of that

:11:40.:11:46.

on Thursday, we are agreed? No. But he does have two budgets between now

:11:47.:11:50.

and the election and if the fiscal position is using a little bit, he

:11:51.:11:58.

may have more leeway than it looked like a couple of months ago. Yes,

:11:59.:12:01.

from a free enter prise point of view, we have looked at the tax cuts

:12:02.:12:09.

that should be looked at. The 4 p rate comes in at quite a low level

:12:10.:12:14.

for people who, in the south-east, do not feel particularly wealthy.

:12:15.:12:18.

They are spending a lot of money on commuting, energy bills. The

:12:19.:12:25.

Chancellor has been very open about championing this. He says that the

:12:26.:12:29.

40p rate will kick in at a slightly higher rate. Labour had a bad summer

:12:30.:12:34.

and the opinion polls seem to be narrowing. Then they had a good

:12:35.:12:41.

hearty conference season. The best. Has the Labour lead solidified or

:12:42.:12:44.

increased the little, maybe up to eight points? If it is a good Autumn

:12:45.:12:49.

Statement, or the Tories start to narrow that lead by the end of the

:12:50.:12:56.

year? If they go into 2014 trailing by single digits, they cannot

:12:57.:13:01.

complain too much. That gives them 18 months to chip away at Labour's

:13:02.:13:06.

lead. But do they do that chipping away by eight bidding Labour or do

:13:07.:13:10.

they let time take its course and let the economic recovery continue,

:13:11.:13:13.

maybe business investment joins consumer spending as a source of

:13:14.:13:19.

that recovery, and a year from now, household disposable income begins

:13:20.:13:24.

to rise? That is a better hope than engaging in a bidding war. Be

:13:25.:13:30.

assured, they will be highly political budgets. That's all for

:13:31.:13:33.

today. The Daily Politics is on BBC Two at midday all this week, except

:13:34.:13:36.

on Thursday when we'll start at 10:45 to bring you live coverage and

:13:37.:13:39.

analysis of the Chancellor's Autumn Statement in a Daily Politics

:13:40.:13:42.

special for BBC Two and the BBC News Channel. Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:43.:13:44.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:45.:13:47.

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