05/02/2017 Sunday Politics South East


05/02/2017

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It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.

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Theresa May pledged to help people who are "just about managing",

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and this week her government will announce new measures to boost

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the number of affordable homes and improve conditions for renters.

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After a US court suspends Donald Trump's travel ban and rules

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it could be unconstitutional, one of the President's inner circle

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tells me there is no "chaos", and that Donald Trump's White House

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is making good on his campaign promises.

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As the Government gets into gear for two years

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of Brexit negotiations, we report on the haggling to come

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over the UK's Brexit bill for leaving the European Union -

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and the costs and savings once we've left.

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And with me, as always, a trio of top political

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journalists - Helen Lewis, Tom Newton Dunn

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They'll be tweeting throughout the programme,

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So, more anguish to come this week for the Labour party as the House

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of Commons continues to debate the bill which paves the way

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Last week, Labour split over the Article 50 bill,

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with a fifth of Labour MPs defying Jeremy Corbyn to vote against.

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Five shadow ministers resigned, and it's expected Mr Corbyn

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will have to sack more frontbenchers once the bill is voted

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Add to that the fact that the Labour Leader's close ally

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Diane Abbot failed to turn up for the initial vote -

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blaming illness - and things don't look too rosy

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The Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry was asked

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about the situation earlier on the Andrew Marr show.

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The Labour Party is a national party and we represent the nation,

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and the nation is divided on this, and it is very difficult.

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Many MPs representing majority Remain constituencies have this very

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difficult balancing act between - do I represent my constituency,

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Labour, as a national party, have a clear view.

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We fought to stay in Europe, but the public have spoken,

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But the important thing now is not to give Theresa May a blank check,

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we have to make sure we get the right deal for the country.

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That was Emily Thornberry. Helen, is this like a form of Chinese water

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torture for the Labour Party? And for journalists, to! We are in a

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situation where no one really thinks it's working. A lot of authority has

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drained away from Jeremy Corbyn but no one can do anything about it.

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What we saw from the leadership contest is on the idea of a Blairite

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plot to get rid of him. You are essentially stuck in stasis. The

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only person that can remove Jeremy Corbyn is God or Jeremy Corbyn.

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Authority may have moved from Mr Corbyn but it's not going anywhere

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else, there's not an alternative centre of authority? Not quite, but

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Clive Lewis is name emerging, the Shadow Business Secretary. A lot of

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the Labour left, people like Paul Mason, really like him and would

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like to see him in Corbyn. I think that's why Jeremy Corbyn do

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something extraordinary next week and abstain from Article 50, the

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main bill itself, to keep his Shadow Cabinet together. That clip on

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Andrew Marr, point blank refusing to say if Labour will vote for Article

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50. The only way Jeremy Corbyn can hold this mess together now is to

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abstain, which would be catastrophic across Brexit constituencies in the

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North. The problem with abstention is everyone will say on the issue of

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our time, the official opposition hasn't got coherent or considered

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policy? I love the way Emily Thornberry said the country is

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divided and we represent the country, in other words we are

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divided at the party as well. The other thing that was a crucial

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moment this week is the debate over whether there should be a so-called

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meaningful vote by MPs on the deal that Theresa May gets. That is a

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point of real danger for Brexit supporters. It may well be there is

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a coalition of Labour and SNP and Remain MPs, Tory MPs, who vote for

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that so-called meaningful vote that could undermine Theresa May's

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negotiation. So Theresa May could have had troubles as well, not plain

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sailing for her? There is no point, apart from lonely Ken Clarke voting

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against Article 50, no point in Tory remainders rebelling. It would have

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been a token gesture with no support. But there might be

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meaningful amendments. One might be on the status of EU nationals... The

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government could lose that. There might be a majority for some of

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those amendments. The ins and outs of the Labour Party, it fascinates

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the Labour Party and journalists. I suspect the country has just moved

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on and doesn't care. You are probably quite right. To be honest I

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struggled to get Labour split stories in my paper any more, the

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bar is so high to make it news. Where it does matter is now not

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everyone will pay huge amounts to the -- of attention to the vote on

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Wednesday. But come the general election in 2020, maybe a little

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earlier, every Tory leaflet and every labour constituency will say

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this guy, this goal, they refuse to vote for Brexit, do you want them in

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power? That is going to be really hard for them. The story next week

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may be Tory splits rather than just Labour ones, we will see.

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Theresa May has made a big deal out of her commitment to help people

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on middle incomes who are "just about managing", and early this week

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we should get a good sense of what that means in practice -

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when plans to bring down the cost of housing and protect renters

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are published in the Government's new white paper.

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Theresa May has promised she'll kick off Brexit negotiations with the EU

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by the end of March, and after months of shadow-boxing

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Ellie Price reports on the battle to come over the UK's Brexit bill,

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and the likely costs and savings once we've left.

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It was the figure that defined the EU referendum campaign.

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It was also a figure that was fiercely disputed, but the promise -

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vote leave and Britain won't have to pay into the EU are any more.

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So, is that what's going to happen now?

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The trouble with buses is you tend to have to wait for them

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and when Theresa May triggers Article 50, the clock starts

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She needs something quicker, something more sporty.

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According to the most recent Treasury figures,

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Britain's gross contribution to the EU, after the rebate

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is taken into account, is about ?14 billion a year.

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There are some complicating factors that means it can go up

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or down year on year, but that's roughly how much the UK

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will no longer sending to Brussels post-Brexit.

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But, there are other payments that Britain will have to shell out for.

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First and foremost, the so-called divorce settlement.

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It is being said, and openly by Commissioner Barnier

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and others in the Commission, that the total financial liability

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as they see it might be in the order of 40-60 billion

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The BBC understands the figure EU negotiators are likely

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to settle on is far lower, around 34 billion euros,

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but what does the money they are going to argue

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Well, that's how much Britain owes for stuff in the EU budget that's

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already signed up for until 2020, one year after we are

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Historically, Britain pays 12% in contributions,

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so the cost to the UK is likely to be between ten

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Then they will look at the 200-250 billion euros of underfunded

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spending commitments, the so-called RAL.

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Britain could also be liable for around 5-7 billion euros

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for its share in the pensions bill for EU staff, that's again

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12% of an overall bill of 50-60 billion.

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Finally there's a share of our assets held by the EU.

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They include things like this building, the European Commission

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Britain could argue it deserves a share back of around 18 billion

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euros from a portfolio that's said to be worth 153 billion euros.

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So, lots for the two sides to discuss in two years of talks.

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They have a great opportunity with the Article 50 talks

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because actually they can hold us to ransom.

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They can say, "You figure out money, we will talk about your trade.

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But until you've figured out the money, we won't," so I think

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a lot of European states think they are in a very strong

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negotiating position at the moment and they intend to make

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The principle is clear, the days of Britain making vast

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contributions to the European Union every year will end.

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Theresa May has already indicated that she would want to sign back up

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to a number of EU agencies on a program-by-program basis.

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The Europol for example, that's the European crime

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agency, or Erasmus Plus, which wants student exchanges.

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If everything stays the same as it is now, it would cost the UK

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675 million euros a year, based on analysis by

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But there are likely to be agencies we don't choose to participate in.

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If we only opted back to those dealing with security,

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trade, universities and, say, climate change,

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it could come with a price tag of 370 million euros per year.

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Of course that's if our European neighbours allow us.

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I wonder if they're going to let me in!

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There will also be a cost to creating a new system to resolve

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trade disputes with other nations once we are no longer part

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Take the EFTA Court which rules on disputes

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between the EU and Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.

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That costs 4 million euros to run each year,

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though in the Brexit White Paper published this week,

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the Government said it will not be constrained by precedent

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Finally, would the EU get behind the idea of Britain making some

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contribution for some preferential access to its market?

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The sort of thing that Theresa May seems to be hinting

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at are sectoral arrangements, some kind of partial membership

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Switzerland, which has a far less wide-ranging deal than Norway,

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pays about 320 million a year for what it gets into the EU budget,

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but it's not exactly the Swiss deal that we're after.

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The EU institutions hate the Swiss deal because it is codified

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in a huge number of treaties that are messy, complicated

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and cumbersome, and they really don't want to replicate

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Theresa May has been at pains to insist she's in the driving seat

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when it comes to these negotiations, and that she's

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But with so much money up for discussion, it may not be such

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Sadly she didn't get to keep the car!

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And I've been joined to discuss the Brexit balance sheet

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by the director of the Centre for European Reform, Charles Grant,

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and by Henry Newman who runs the think tank Open Europe.

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Henry Newman, these figures that are being thrown about in Brussels at

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the moment, and exit bill of 40-60,000,000,000. What do you make

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of them? I think it is an opening gambit from the institutions and we

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should take them seriously. We listened to Mr Rogers, the former

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ambassador to Brussels in the House of Commons last week, speaking about

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the sort of positions the EU is likely to take in the negotiation. I

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personally think the Prime Minister should be more concerned about

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getting the right sort of trade arrangements, subsequent to our

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departure, than worrying about the exact detail of the divorce

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settlement and the Bill. They might not let them go on to trade until

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they resolve this matter. Where does the Brexit bill, the cost of exit,

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if there is to be one, in terms of a sum of money, where does that come

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in the negotiations, upfront or at the end? The European Commission has

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a firm line on this. You have to talk about the Brexit bill and the

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divorce settlement before you talk about the future relationship.

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Therefore they are saying if you don't sign up for 60 billion or

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thereabouts, we won't talk about the future. Other member states take a

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softer line than that and think you probably have to talk about the

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divorce settlement and Brexit bill as the same -- at the same time as

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the economic situation. If you can do both at the same time, the

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atmosphere may be better natured. You have spoken to people in

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Brussels and are part of a think tank, how Revista gives the figure

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or is it an opening gambit? Most member states and EU institutions

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believe they think it is the true figure but when the negotiations

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start adding the number will come down. As long as the British are

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prepared to sign up to the principle of we owe you a bit of money, as the

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cheque, then people will compromise. What is the ballpark? You had a

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figure of 34 billion, that is news to me, nobody knows because

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negotiations haven't started but I think something lower than 60. Even

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60 would be politically toxic for a British government? I think Theresa

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May is in a strong position, she has united the Conservative Party. You

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could expect coming into this year all the Conservative divisions would

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be laid bare by Gina Miller. But she is leading a united party. Labour

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Party are divided... Coogee get away with paying 30 billion? We should

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give her the benefit of the doubt going into these negotiations, let

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her keep her cards close to her chest. The speech he gave a few

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weeks ago at Lancaster House, our judgment was she laid out as much

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detail as we could have expected at that point. I don't think it's

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helpful for us now to say, we shouldn't be introducing further red

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line. I want you to be helpful and find things out. I would suggest if

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there is a bill, let's say it's 30 billion, let's make it half of what

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the current claims coming out of Brussels. And of course it won't

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have to be paid in one year, I assume it's not one cheque but

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spread over. But we will wait a long time for that 350 million a week or

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what ever it was that was meant to come from Brussels to spend on the

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NHS. That's not going to happen for the next five, six or seven years.

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Everyone has been clear there will be a phased exit programme. The

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question of whether something is political possible for her in terms

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of the divorce settlement will depend on what she gets from the

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European Union in those negotiations. If she ends up

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settling for a bill of about 30 billion which I think would be

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politically... No matter how popular she is, politically very difficult

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for her, it does kill any idea there is a Brexit dividend for Britain.

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Some of the senior officials in London and Brussels are worried this

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issue could crash the talks because it may be possible for Theresa May

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to accept a Brexit bill of 30 billion and if there is no deal and

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will leave EU without a settlement, there is massive legal uncertainty.

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What contract law applies? Can our planes take off from Heathrow?

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Nobody knows what legal rights there are for an EU citizen living here

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and vice versa. If there is no deal at the end of two years, it is quite

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bad for the European economy, therefore they think they have all

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the cards to play and they think if it is mishandled domestically in

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Britain than we have a crash. But there will be competing interests in

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Europe, the Baltic states, Eastern Europe, maybe quite similar of the

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Nordic states, that in turn different from the French, Germans

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or Italians. How will Europe come to a common view on these things? At

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the moment they are quite united backing a strong line, except for

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the polls and Hungarians who are the bad boys of Europe and the Irish who

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will do anything to keep us happy. We should remember their priority is

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not economics, they are not thinking how can they maximise trade with the

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UK, they are under threat. The combination of Trump and Brexit

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scares them. They want to keep the institutions strong. They also want

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to keep Britain. That is the one strong card we have, contributing to

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security. We know we won't be members of the single market, that

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was in the White Paper. The situation of the customs union is

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more complicated I would suggest. Does that have cost? If we can be a

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little bit pregnant in the customs union, does that come with a price

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ticket? We have got some clarity on the customs union, the Prime

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Minister said we would not be part of the... We would be able to do our

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own trade deals outside the EU customs union, and also not be part

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of the common external tariff. She said she is willing to look at other

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options and we don't know what that will be so as a think tank we are

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looking at this over the next few weeks and coming up with

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recommendations for the Government and looking at how existing

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boundaries between the EU customs union and other states work in

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practice. For example between Switzerland and the EU border,

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Norway and Switzerland, and the UK and Canada. We will want is a

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country the freedom to do our own free trade deals, that seems to be

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quite high up there, and to change our external tariffs to the rest of

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the world. If that's the case, we do seem to be wanting our cake and

:19:10.:19:14.

eating it in the customs union. Talking to some people in London, it

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is quite clear we are leaving the essentials of the customs union, the

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tariff, so even if we can minimise controls at the border by having

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mutual recognition agreements, so we recognise each other's standards,

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but there will still have to be checks for things like rules of

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origin and tariffs if tariffs apply, which is a problem for the Irish

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because nobody has worked out how you can avoid having some sort of

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customs control on the border between Northern Ireland and the

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South once we are out of the customs union. I think it's important we

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don't look at this too much as one side has to win and one side has to

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lose scenario. We can find ways. My Broadview is what we get out of the

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negotiation will depend on politics more than economic reality. Economic

:20:02.:20:03.

reality is strong, there's a good case for a trade deal on the

:20:04.:20:21.

solution on the customs deal, but Britain will need to come up with a

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positive case for our relationship and keep making that case. If it

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turns out the Government thinks the bill is too high, that we can't

:20:27.:20:29.

really get the free trade deal done in time and it's left hanging in the

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wind, what are the chances, how I as things stand now that we end up

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crashing out? I'd say there's a 30% chance that we don't get the free

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trade agreement at the end of it that Mrs May is aiming for. The very

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hard crash is you don't even do an Article 50 divorce settlement from

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you go straight to World Trade Organisation rules. The less hard

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crash is doing the divorce settlement and transitional

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arrangements would require European Court of Justice arrangements. We

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will leave it there. Thank you, both.

:21:03.:21:04.

Donald Trump's flagship policy of extreme vetting of immigrants

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and a temporary travel ban for citizens of seven mainly-muslim

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countries was stopped in its tracks this weekend.

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On Friday a judge ruled the ban should be lifted and that it

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That prompted President Trump to fire off a series of tweets

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criticising what he says was a terrible decision

:21:20.:21:21.

by a so-called judge, as he ordered the State Department

:21:22.:21:23.

Now the federal appeals court has rejected his request to reinstate

:21:24.:21:31.

the ban until it hears the case in full.

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Well yesterday I spoke to Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant

:21:44.:21:47.

I asked him if the confusion over the travel ban

:21:48.:21:51.

was a sign that the President's two-week-old administration

:21:52.:21:53.

There is no chaos, you really shouldn't believe the spin, the

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facts speak for themselves. 109 people on Saturday were mildly

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inconvenienced by having their entry into the United States delayed out

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of 325,000. So let's not get carried away with the left-wing media bias

:22:18.:22:26.

and spin. Hold on, 60,000 - 90,000 people with visas, their visas are

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no longer valid. That's another issue. You need to listen to what

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I'm saying. The people who entered on the day of the executive order

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being implemented worth 109 people out of 325. Whether people won't

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travelling to America were affected is another matter, so there is no

:22:49.:22:56.

chaos to comment on. Following Iran's latest missile tests,

:22:57.:23:02.

National Security adviser Flint said the US was "Putting Iran on notice",

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what does that mean? It means we have a new president and we are not

:23:08.:23:10.

going to facilitate the rise of one of the most dangerous nations in the

:23:11.:23:16.

world. We are jettisoning this naive and dangerous policy of the Obama

:23:17.:23:25.

Administration to try and make the Shi'ite dictatorial democracy some

:23:26.:23:28.

kind of counter balance to extremist Sunni groups in the region and that

:23:29.:23:32.

they cannot continue to behave in the way they have behaved for the

:23:33.:23:36.

last 30 years. It is a very simple message. So are there any

:23:37.:23:42.

multilateral alliances that Mr Trump would like to strengthen?

:23:43.:23:49.

Absolutely. If we are looking at the region, if you listen to what

:23:50.:23:52.

President Trump has said and specifically to also the speeches of

:23:53.:23:57.

general Flint, his national security adviser, we are incredibly vested in

:23:58.:24:02.

seeing our Sunni allies in the region come together in a real

:24:03.:24:09.

coalition. The so-called vaunted 66 nation coalition that was created

:24:10.:24:15.

under the Obama administration... There was no coalition. But we want

:24:16.:24:19.

to help our Sunni allies, especially the Egyptians, the Jordanians, come

:24:20.:24:27.

together in a real partnership to take the fight to ISIS and groups

:24:28.:24:33.

like Al-Qaeda. But there is not a formal multilateral alliance with

:24:34.:24:38.

these countries. Which of the existing, formal multilateral

:24:39.:24:42.

alliances does Mr Trump wants to strengthen? If you are specifically

:24:43.:24:47.

talking about Nato, it is clear that we are committed to Nato but we wish

:24:48.:24:51.

to see a more equitable burden sharing among the nations that are

:24:52.:24:55.

simply not spending enough on their own defence so the gentleman 's

:24:56.:24:59.

agreement of 2% of GDP has to be stuck to, unlike the, I think it's

:25:00.:25:03.

only Six Nations that reach the standard today out of almost 30. So

:25:04.:25:08.

he does want to strengthen Nato then? Absolutely, he believes Nato

:25:09.:25:20.

is the most successful military alliances. You mustn't believe the

:25:21.:25:25.

spin and hype. EU leaders now see the Trump administration as a threat

:25:26.:25:30.

up there with Russia, China, terrorism. What's your response to

:25:31.:25:36.

that? I have to laugh. The idea that the nation that came to the

:25:37.:25:42.

salvation of Europe twice in the 20th century hummer in World War I

:25:43.:25:49.

and World War II, was central to the defeat of the totalitarian... It is

:25:50.:26:00.

not even worth commenting on. Would it matter to the Trump

:26:01.:26:04.

administration if the European Union broke up? The United States is very

:26:05.:26:07.

interested in the best relations possible with all the nations of the

:26:08.:26:15.

EU am a whether the European union wishes to stay together or not is up

:26:16.:26:20.

to the nations of the European Union. I understand that but I was

:26:21.:26:26.

wondering what the US view would be. Until Mr Trump, EU foreign policy

:26:27.:26:30.

was quite consistent in wanting to see the EU survive, prosper and even

:26:31.:26:34.

become more integrated. Now that doesn't seem to be the case, so

:26:35.:26:38.

would it matter to the Trump administration if the EU broke up? I

:26:39.:26:44.

will say yet again, it is in the interests of the United States to

:26:45.:26:47.

have the best relations possible with our European allies, and

:26:48.:26:51.

whether that is in the formation of the EU or if the EU by itself

:26:52.:26:55.

suffers some kind of internal issues, that's up to the European

:26:56.:27:00.

nations and not something we will comment on. Listening to that

:27:01.:27:05.

answer, it would seem as if this particular president's preference is

:27:06.:27:09.

to deal with individual nation states rather than multilateral

:27:10.:27:15.

institutions. Is that fair? I don't think so. There's never been an

:27:16.:27:22.

unequivocal statement by that effect by the statement. Does he share the

:27:23.:27:26.

opinion of Stephen Bannon that the 21st century should see a return to

:27:27.:27:31.

nation states rather than growing existing multilateral ways? I think

:27:32.:27:37.

it is fair to say that we have problems with political elites that

:27:38.:27:40.

don't take the interests of the populations they represent into

:27:41.:27:45.

account. That's why Brexit happened. I think that's why Mr Trump became

:27:46.:27:51.

President Trump. This is the connected phenomena. You are

:27:52.:27:55.

obsessing about institutions, it is not about institutions, it's about

:27:56.:27:59.

the health of democracy and whether political elites do what is in the

:28:00.:28:04.

interests of the people they represent. Given the

:28:05.:28:06.

unpredictability of the new president, you never really know

:28:07.:28:09.

what he's going to do next, would it be wise for the British Prime

:28:10.:28:14.

Minister to hitch her wagon to his star? This is really churlish

:28:15.:28:22.

questioning. Come on, you don't know what he's going to do next, listen

:28:23.:28:25.

to what he says because he does what he's going to say. I know this may

:28:26.:28:31.

be shocking to some reporters, but look at his campaign promises, and

:28:32.:28:34.

the fact that in the last 15 days we have executed every single one that

:28:35.:28:41.

we could in the time permissible so there is nothing unpredictable about

:28:42.:28:45.

Donald Trump as president. OK then, if we do know what he's going to do

:28:46.:28:51.

next, what is he going to do next? Continue to make good on his

:28:52.:28:56.

election promises, to make America great again, to make the economy are

:28:57.:29:02.

flourishing economy, and most important of all from your

:29:03.:29:06.

perspective in the UK, to be the best friend possible to our friends

:29:07.:29:11.

and the worst enemy to our enemies. It is an old Marine Corps phrase and

:29:12.:29:17.

we tend to live by it. Thank you for your time, we will leave it there.

:29:18.:29:24.

Doctor Gorka, making it clear this administration won't spend political

:29:25.:29:31.

capital on trying to keep the European Union together, a watershed

:29:32.:29:33.

change in American foreign policy. Theresa May has made a big deal out

:29:34.:29:35.

of her commitment to help people on middle incomes who are "just

:29:36.:29:38.

about managing", and early this week we should get a good sense

:29:39.:29:41.

of what that means in practice - when plans to bring down the cost

:29:42.:29:44.

of housing and protect renters are published in the Government's

:29:45.:29:47.

new white paper. The paper is expected to introduce

:29:48.:29:49.

new rules on building Communities Secretary Sajid Javid

:29:50.:29:52.

has previously said politicians should not stand in the way

:29:53.:29:57.

of development, provided all options Also rumoured are new measures

:29:58.:30:00.

to speed up building the 1 million new homes the Government promised

:30:01.:30:05.

to build by 2020, including imposing five-year quotas

:30:06.:30:07.

on reluctant councils. Reports suggest there will be

:30:08.:30:11.

relaxation of building height restrictions,

:30:12.:30:13.

allowing home owners and developers to build to the height

:30:14.:30:15.

of the tallest building on the block without needing to seek

:30:16.:30:17.

planning permission. Other elements trialled include

:30:18.:30:23.

new measures to stop developers sitting on parcels of land

:30:24.:30:27.

without building homes, land banking, and moving railway

:30:28.:30:29.

station car parks Underground, The Government today said it

:30:30.:30:31.

will amend planning rules so more homes can be built specifically

:30:32.:30:40.

to be rented out through longer term tenancies, to provide more stability

:30:41.:30:43.

for young families, alongside its proposed ban

:30:44.:30:45.

on letting agent fees. And the Housing Minister,

:30:46.:30:52.

Gavin Barwell, joins me now. Welcome to the programme. Home

:30:53.:31:02.

ownership is now beyond the reach of most young people. You are now

:31:03.:31:05.

emphasising affordable homes for rent. Why have you given up on the

:31:06.:31:10.

Tory dream of a property owning democracy? We haven't given up on

:31:11.:31:13.

that. The decline on home ownership in this country started in 2004. So

:31:14.:31:18.

far we have stopped that decline, we haven't reversed it but we

:31:19.:31:21.

absolutely want to make sure that people who want to own and can do

:31:22.:31:27.

so. The Prime Minister was very clear a country that works for

:31:28.:31:29.

everyone. That means we have to have say something to say to those who

:31:30.:31:33.

want to rent as well as on. Home ownership of young people is 35%,

:31:34.:31:38.

used to be 60%. Are you telling me during the lifetime of this

:31:39.:31:42.

government that is going to rise? We want to reverse the decline. We have

:31:43.:31:47.

stabilised it. The decline started in 2004 under Labour. They weren't

:31:48.:31:51.

bothered about it. We have taken action and that has stop the

:31:52.:31:56.

decline... What about the rise? We have to make sure people work hard

:31:57.:32:00.

the right thing have the chance to own their home on home. We have

:32:01.:32:03.

helped people through help to buy, shared ownership, that is part of

:32:04.:32:08.

it, but we have to have something to say to those who want to rent. You

:32:09.:32:12.

say you want more rented homes so why did you introduce a 3%

:32:13.:32:18.

additional stamp duty levied to pay those investing in build to rent

:32:19.:32:21.

properties? That was basically to try and stop a lot of the

:32:22.:32:25.

speculation in the buy to let market. The Bank of England raised

:32:26.:32:29.

concerns about that. When you see the white paper, you will see there

:32:30.:32:34.

is a package of measures for Bill to rent, trying to get institutional

:32:35.:32:41.

investment for that, different to people going and buying a home on

:32:42.:32:44.

the private market and renting out. You are trying to get institutional

:32:45.:32:49.

money to comment, just as this government and subsequent ones

:32:50.:32:52.

before said it would get pension fund money to invest in

:32:53.:32:55.

infrastructure and it never happened. Why should this happen? Is

:32:56.:32:59.

already starting to happen. If you go around the country you can see

:33:00.:33:02.

some of these builder rent scheme is happening. There are changes in the

:33:03.:33:07.

White Paper... How much money from institutions is going into bill to

:33:08.:33:18.

rent modular hundreds of millions. I was at the stock exchange the other

:33:19.:33:20.

day celebrating the launch of one of our bombs designed to get this money

:33:21.:33:23.

on. There are schemes being... There is huge potential to expand it. We

:33:24.:33:26.

need more homes and we are too dependent on a small number of large

:33:27.:33:29.

developers. -- to launch one of our bonds. You talk about affordable

:33:30.:33:36.

renting, what is affordable? Defined as something that is at least 20%

:33:37.:33:42.

below the market price. It will vary around the country. Let me put it

:33:43.:33:45.

another way. The average couple renting now have to spend 50% of

:33:46.:33:50.

their income on rent. Is that affordable? That is exactly what

:33:51.:33:54.

we're trying to do something about. Whether you're trying to buy or

:33:55.:33:57.

rent, housing in this country has become less and less affordable

:33:58.:34:01.

because the 30-40 years governments haven't built in times. This white

:34:02.:34:04.

Paper is trying to do something about that. You have been in power

:34:05.:34:09.

six, almost seven years. That's right. Why are ownership of new

:34:10.:34:17.

homes to 24 year low? It was a low figure because it's a new five-year

:34:18.:34:20.

programme. That is not a great excuse. It's not an excuse at all.

:34:21.:34:24.

The way these things work, you have a five-year programme and in the

:34:25.:34:27.

last year you have a record number of delivery and when you start a new

:34:28.:34:31.

programme, a lower level. If you look at the average over six years,

:34:32.:34:35.

this government has built more affordable housing than the previous

:34:36.:34:41.

one. Stiletto 24 year loss, that is an embarrassment. Yes. We have the

:34:42.:34:47.

figures, last year was 32,000, the year before 60 6000. You get this

:34:48.:34:50.

cliff edge effect. It is embarrassing and we want to stop it

:34:51.:34:55.

happening in the future. You want to give tenants more secure and longer

:34:56.:34:59.

leases which rent rises are predictable in advance. Ed Miliband

:35:00.:35:06.

promoted three-year tenancies in the 2015 general election campaign and

:35:07.:35:10.

George Osborne said it was totally economically illiterate. What's

:35:11.:35:15.

changed? You are merging control of the rents people in charge, which

:35:16.:35:20.

we're not imposing. We want longer term tenancies. Most people have

:35:21.:35:24.

six-month tenancies... Within that there would be a control on how much

:35:25.:35:29.

the rent could go up? Right? It would be set for the period of the

:35:30.:35:33.

tenancies. That's what I just said, that's what Ed Miliband proposed. Ed

:35:34.:35:37.

Miliband proposed regulating it for the whole sector. One of the reasons

:35:38.:35:42.

institutional investment is so attractive, if you had a spare home

:35:43.:35:46.

and you want to rent out, you might need it any year, so you give it a

:35:47.:35:51.

short tenancy. If you have a block, they are interested in a long-term

:35:52.:35:56.

return and give families more security. You have set a target,

:35:57.:36:03.

your government, to build in the life of this parliament 1 million

:36:04.:36:06.

new homes in England by 2020. You're not going to make that? I think we

:36:07.:36:14.

are. If you look at 2015-16 we had 190,000 additional homes of this

:36:15.:36:17.

country. Just below the level we need to achieve. Over five...

:36:18.:36:25.

2015-16. You were probably looking at the new homes built. Talking

:36:26.:36:31.

about completions in England. That is not the best measure, with

:36:32.:36:34.

respect. You said you will complete 1 million homes by 2020 so what is

:36:35.:36:40.

wrong with it? We use a national statistic which looks at new homes

:36:41.:36:44.

built and conversions and changes of use minus demolitions. The total

:36:45.:36:46.

change of the housing stock over that year. On that basis I have the

:36:47.:36:53.

figures here. I have the figures. You looking I just completed. 1

:36:54.:36:57.

million new homes, the average rate of those built in the last three

:36:58.:37:02.

quarters was 30 6000. You have 14 more quarters to get to the 1

:37:03.:37:07.

million. You have to raise that to 50 6000. I put it to you, you won't

:37:08.:37:11.

do it. You're not looking at the full picture of new housing in this

:37:12.:37:16.

country. You're looking at brand-new homes and not including conversions

:37:17.:37:20.

or changes of use are not taking off, which we should, demolitions.

:37:21.:37:25.

If you look at the National statistic net additions, in 2015-16,

:37:26.:37:31.

100 and 90,000 new homes. We are behind schedule. -- 190,000. I am

:37:32.:37:35.

confident with the measures in the White Paper we can achieve that. It

:37:36.:37:40.

is not just about the national total, we need to build these homes

:37:41.:37:44.

are the right places. Will the green belt remain sacrosanct after the

:37:45.:37:50.

white paper? Not proposing to change the existing protections that there

:37:51.:37:53.

for green belts. What planning policy says is councils can remove

:37:54.:37:58.

land from green belts but only in exceptional circumstances and should

:37:59.:38:00.

look at at all the circumstances before doing that. No change? No. We

:38:01.:38:07.

have a manifesto commitment. You still think you will get 1 million

:38:08.:38:13.

homes? The green belt is only 15%. This idea we can only fix our broken

:38:14.:38:17.

housing market by taking huge swathes of land out of the green

:38:18.:38:20.

belt is not true. We will leave it there, thank you for joining us,

:38:21.:38:23.

Gavin Barwell. It is coming up to 11.40.

:38:24.:38:25.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:38:26.:38:27.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead...

:38:28.:38:38.

Coming up later, could a new train line between London and Brighton be

:38:39.:38:44.

the solution for long-suffering passengers and overcrowded trains?

:38:45.:38:49.

Or is it a pipe dream that will just hit the buffers?

:38:50.:38:53.

Joining me in the studio today at the Conservative MP

:38:54.:38:55.

for Lewes, Maria Caulfield, and Anneliese Dodds,

:38:56.:38:57.

We are going to start with the Southern Rail

:38:58.:39:04.

dispute, which finally had a breakthrough on Thursday.

:39:05.:39:08.

A deal between the drivers union Aslef and the rail operator.

:39:09.:39:13.

But the misery for Southern passengers isn't over.

:39:14.:39:14.

Talks with the RMT Union are expected to take place next week.

:39:15.:39:17.

Maria, I know your constituents have been particularly affected

:39:18.:39:21.

by the chaos on Southern over the last year as so.

:39:22.:39:24.

Do you think that deal with Aslef makes it more or less likely that

:39:25.:39:27.

a deal can be reached for the RMT Union now?

:39:28.:39:29.

And think it's probably more likely because,

:39:30.:39:31.

once the Aslef union have got the issues resolved,

:39:32.:39:35.

it put pressure on the RMT to get theirs because it's the only

:39:36.:39:38.

outstanding problem now in this dispute.

:39:39.:39:43.

So we are saying to both, we are pleased that the RMT

:39:44.:39:46.

and Southern are getting background the table because it was

:39:47.:39:48.

the TUC talks that really broke through the deal.

:39:49.:39:53.

Strike action doesn't resolve any of the issues or general

:39:54.:39:56.

So I am pleased they are background the table for talks next week.

:39:57.:40:00.

It could make things better, but on the other hand,

:40:01.:40:02.

the RMT dispute has been more long-running, it could be argued

:40:03.:40:05.

as more intractable, and if anything, the RMT Union might

:40:06.:40:07.

feel more angered by the fact that Aslef done a deal

:40:08.:40:12.

There is a risk there, but I think, given the changeovers and the Aslef

:40:13.:40:18.

union have come to a deal in terms of their concerns around driver

:40:19.:40:21.

only operated trains, I think it makes it more likely

:40:22.:40:23.

that the RMT and the on-board supervisors and the conductors

:40:24.:40:26.

They have some concerns, genuine concerns, but the only way

:40:27.:40:30.

to address those is round the table with talks and not by striking.

:40:31.:40:33.

Anneliese, this does rather vindicate the Government's position

:40:34.:40:37.

throughout this dispute which is they didn't

:40:38.:40:39.

want to get involved, that this should be sorted out away

:40:40.:40:41.

Actually, the Government sets the whole frame that's led to this

:40:42.:40:48.

dispute in the first place so they really can't say they don't

:40:49.:40:51.

I have heard time and again people from the Government saying this

:40:52.:40:56.

There is nothing behind it so I'm really pleased there are people

:40:57.:41:00.

acknowledging there are some genuine concerns there.

:41:01.:41:01.

Really, those have got to be dealt with, particularly

:41:02.:41:03.

You know, you do have issues around safety,

:41:04.:41:08.

with trains without guards, trains without conductors,

:41:09.:41:10.

if you have also people trying to get on with a wheelchair

:41:11.:41:13.

We can take there are lots of gems that operate like that,

:41:14.:41:21.

but do we need to make all the rest of them poor quality?

:41:22.:41:24.

Shouldn't we try to have a train service for the 21st century?

:41:25.:41:27.

I am pleased to hear people acknowledging their having

:41:28.:41:30.

problems and that this wasn't just ideological.

:41:31.:41:31.

Even if all of the disputes are ended, though, you yourself

:41:32.:41:34.

said in the Commons, you dread the return

:41:35.:41:36.

Many of your constituents will take, well, actually, things were easier

:41:37.:41:40.

during the strike because we knew which trains were running

:41:41.:41:42.

On an ordinary day, the service doesn't work anyway?

:41:43.:41:45.

A return to normal service is not necessarily a cause for celebration

:41:46.:41:49.

because we've had one of the worst - the worst performing -

:41:50.:41:52.

We are performing in terms of trains on time in the 60s.

:41:53.:41:56.

60% compared to most other rail operators in the high 90s.

:41:57.:41:59.

Since the dispute has been halted, we have seen

:42:00.:42:01.

That is not good enough but an improvement.

:42:02.:42:04.

I am absolutely going to be holding Southern's feet to the fire to make

:42:05.:42:07.

sure that their next and only priority is delivering performance.

:42:08.:42:13.

OK, well, one solution to the problems on Southern

:42:14.:42:15.

being put forward by Maria and a group of fellow MPs is to open

:42:16.:42:18.

a whole new line through Sussex and Kent which would connect

:42:19.:42:21.

Brighton with Uckfield, Tunbridge Wells and the city.

:42:22.:42:23.

The group behind it say they have a consortium of private

:42:24.:42:26.

investors ready to fund the ?6 billion project

:42:27.:42:29.

and they claim it would relieve congestion on the existing

:42:30.:42:32.

Which is used by 60,000 passengers per hour at peak times.

:42:33.:42:55.

Platform 2 for the 1454 service to London Victoria.

:42:56.:42:57.

More of us than ever before are travelling by train.

:42:58.:43:00.

But this is the daily reality for commuters

:43:01.:43:02.

using the Brighton mainline, one of the UK's busiest

:43:03.:43:04.

commuter routes dubbed the most delayed in Britain.

:43:05.:43:11.

This extraordinary viaduct across the River Ouse was built

:43:12.:43:14.

by the Victorians and it still carries the existing

:43:15.:43:17.

But for decades, there has been talk about building an alternative route

:43:18.:43:25.

To ease the burden on the overstretched system.

:43:26.:43:32.

And this week, Sussex MPs and a private consortium

:43:33.:43:35.

of private investors met the Transport Secretary to set up

:43:36.:43:43.

a ?6 billion scheme that they say could finally make it happen.

:43:44.:43:46.

The new mainline would connect Brighton through Lewes to Uckfield

:43:47.:43:49.

and continue through Sussex to a newly reinstated

:43:50.:43:54.

Tunbridge Wells West station and finally through Surrey

:43:55.:43:56.

with a major interchange at Croydon and then to Canary Wharf

:43:57.:43:59.

This is an important project but, at ?6 billion, it costs a lot and it

:44:00.:44:07.

has to be put into a programme with Government money behind it

:44:08.:44:10.

Part of the plan would reinstate a Lewes to Uckfield line.

:44:11.:44:17.

The old track bed is now used as a foot path.

:44:18.:44:27.

I think it is extremely welcome that we have some serious investors

:44:28.:44:30.

It has always been a case of having the resources to drive forward

:44:31.:44:37.

a proposition which has huge public and political support.

:44:38.:44:41.

It would work wonders for the economic hub

:44:42.:44:43.

which is Brighton, reconnect all kinds of places

:44:44.:44:45.

The former MP for Lewes, Norman Baker, was also a Rail Minister.

:44:46.:44:56.

He campaigned to reinstate the Uckfield to Lewes line

:44:57.:44:59.

when he was in Parliament and says plans for a second Brighton mainline

:45:00.:45:03.

No Government is going to invest ?6 billion in this particular scheme.

:45:04.:45:07.

It wouldn't add up in cost benefit terms.

:45:08.:45:16.

So if we have to get this delivered, it has to be delivered very

:45:17.:45:19.

economically and that means the cheapest option possible.

:45:20.:45:23.

That means reinstating Lewes to Uckfield and connecting the two

:45:24.:45:25.

And also providing alternative capacity for the South Coast

:45:26.:45:31.

That is the obvious thing to do rather than investing on these cloud

:45:32.:45:35.

cuckoo schemes that will never get off the ground.

:45:36.:45:39.

But the current Lewes MP, Maria Calfield, said

:45:40.:45:41.

this week was my meeting with the Transport Secretary was

:45:42.:45:44.

So is there a genuine appetite now from the Government

:45:45.:45:47.

Or is this just another idea that will hit the buffers?

:45:48.:45:52.

It sounds wonderful, Maria, but you have so many

:45:53.:45:54.

Not just the physical ones in building the line

:45:55.:46:01.

I guess the biggest problem here is that there seems

:46:02.:46:05.

to be little enthusiasm from the Government for this project

:46:06.:46:08.

because the idea has been around for a long time.

:46:09.:46:12.

I think the former transport minister had little enthusiasm

:46:13.:46:14.

for it, but I don't think that is the position

:46:15.:46:17.

We met with the Brighton mainline 2 group this week,

:46:18.:46:27.

The key priority for the Government investment in terms of investment

:46:28.:46:31.

and improvement is the current mainline because it has been

:46:32.:46:34.

It is exciting that we have private investors who are keen

:46:35.:46:40.

to deliver the money but also to project manage it.

:46:41.:46:43.

If there isn't the capacity in Network Rail for example

:46:44.:46:45.

to deliver this, which I don't think there is, there is another

:46:46.:46:48.

That is the first time we have seen this.

:46:49.:46:52.

Before it happens, we need this feasibility study which was first

:46:53.:46:54.

instigated by the last Chancellor, George Osborne, two years ago.

:46:55.:46:57.

That was supposed to be delivered at the end of 2015,

:46:58.:46:59.

It has been on Chris Grayling's desk since he started on the job.

:47:00.:47:07.

If you was keen, we would have heard about it by now,

:47:08.:47:10.

The feasibility study has happened and you are right,

:47:11.:47:13.

The work it shows is that there is a huge amount of investment

:47:14.:47:17.

The current priority is the existing mainline because we all know that

:47:18.:47:21.

50% of the delays on the current line are due to

:47:22.:47:24.

That is why to take this on to the next stage and do

:47:25.:47:32.

an in-depth study we need the BML 2 team to carry this out.

:47:33.:47:36.

That is something they are considering.

:47:37.:47:38.

Before I bring in Anneliese, there have been many

:47:39.:47:40.

Feasibility studies looking at reopening a version of the

:47:41.:47:43.

Lewes to Uckfield line which have resulted in anything.

:47:44.:47:48.

The Department for Transport said it self not that long ago that the key

:47:49.:47:55.

challenge is significant construction costs, local demand

:47:56.:47:56.

As Norman Baker said, this is a fantasy.

:47:57.:48:00.

It might sound nice to constituents, but actually it is misleading

:48:01.:48:06.

to pretend that this is actually going to become a reality.

:48:07.:48:09.

We are not just looking at the Lewes to Uckfield line.

:48:10.:48:12.

The studies we have done in the past have just looked at Lewes.

:48:13.:48:16.

Lewes to Uckfield and you are right, that doesn't up financially

:48:17.:48:19.

or for any of the benefit indicators you normally look at.

:48:20.:48:22.

We are looking at the second rail line.

:48:23.:48:24.

Going into Canary Wharf, there is businesses in that part

:48:25.:48:29.

of London that are very keen to see that whole stretch to Uckfield

:48:30.:48:32.

and Kent coming down to Sussex, putting towns like Seaford

:48:33.:48:35.

and New Haven on the main line so no longer the poor

:48:36.:48:38.

We are not just looking at Lewes to Uckfield.

:48:39.:48:41.

That is needed, but it is only a small part of what is needed.

:48:42.:48:44.

If Maria can achieve this, with a consortium and her

:48:45.:48:49.

MPs, Anneliese, this is the going

:48:50.:48:56.

to connect parts of the South East that have had nothing in terms

:48:57.:48:59.

It would be very positive if we could have that kind of link

:49:00.:49:04.

But the problem, as you mentioned with getting studies published,

:49:05.:49:09.

we have at this pattern of delay and delay when it comes

:49:10.:49:13.

to Government looking at strategic transport issues in the SE.

:49:14.:49:15.

We were promised that we would have ever London and South Coast rail

:49:16.:49:18.

We have a new Prime Minister and Chancellor.

:49:19.:49:22.

As Peter Kyle says, the Labour MP for Hove, we still don't have

:49:23.:49:25.

Yes, it would be very helpful to have the rail line,

:49:26.:49:28.

but please can we have a more holistic look at all the transport

:49:29.:49:32.

If you take a wider look at the South East as a whole,

:49:33.:49:36.

it is interesting that the director of transport at the East Sussex

:49:37.:49:39.

County Council says he thinks that you would get more bang

:49:40.:49:42.

for your buck if you electrify the line between Hastings

:49:43.:49:44.

and Ashford, which would give you another alternative connection

:49:45.:49:46.

I'm not going to get in the game of playing different

:49:47.:49:50.

When you have limited money, you have to make

:49:51.:49:54.

If that line with actually deliver capacity

:49:55.:49:58.

in another part of the region, might that be a better idea?

:49:59.:50:03.

I think what would be the best idea is the Government, exactly,

:50:04.:50:06.

They say they are doing that with the North,

:50:07.:50:12.

We don't have rail South, and that I believe the council

:50:13.:50:20.

We don't have any holistic look at all of our transport

:50:21.:50:24.

We are waiting for it, we have been promised

:50:25.:50:28.

by the Government for years that we will have this London

:50:29.:50:30.

and South Coast study, and it hasn't been produced.

:50:31.:50:35.

Connecting people would be great, but please, can we push

:50:36.:50:38.

the Government to get a grip on the connections

:50:39.:50:40.

People will be listening to this and watching this, thinking,

:50:41.:50:44.

if they are based in Kent, what about the connections

:50:45.:50:46.

from Dover, what about the freight issues?

:50:47.:50:48.

I agree that these to be a more strategic look that hasn't

:50:49.:50:54.

We are now suffering the consequences of that.

:50:55.:50:56.

The difference between this scheme is that this has been driven

:50:57.:50:59.

by a consortium of people that just that the money in.

:51:00.:51:05.

The ?6 to ?9 billion that this will cost.

:51:06.:51:07.

They will also project manage this and be independent

:51:08.:51:09.

You met Chris Grayling the Transport Secretary last week.

:51:10.:51:17.

Can you give is any idea of where we are?

:51:18.:51:20.

He is keen to see this happen, but there needs to be further

:51:21.:51:23.

work to make sure that, one, the finances stack up.

:51:24.:51:26.

The last thing we want to do is start a programme

:51:27.:51:28.

is the finances don't stack up and it doesn't happen.

:51:29.:51:31.

There is some complex engineering to happen.

:51:32.:51:34.

This needs to be done to make sure it is feasible

:51:35.:51:37.

Hospitals in the South East depend on staff from outside

:51:38.:51:44.

the UK to run their wards and care for patients.

:51:45.:51:49.

Those staff include professionals from the European Union.

:51:50.:51:51.

As MPs voted this week to trigger Article 50,

:51:52.:51:53.

the formal process to be the EU, the question of what happened

:51:54.:52:00.

to those staff in the future and the effect Brexit will have

:52:01.:52:03.

New figures compiled by BBC radio Kent show that the majority

:52:04.:52:08.

of hospital trusts in the South East are choosing to recruit

:52:09.:52:11.

people from overseas to cope with our shortages.

:52:12.:52:13.

In response to a Freedom of Information request,

:52:14.:52:15.

the BBC found that this apply to ten out of the 12 NHS

:52:16.:52:18.

and Midwifery Council which shows a sharp decline in the number

:52:19.:52:25.

of nurses registering to work in the UK.

:52:26.:52:27.

Last July, more than 1000 EU nurses registered to work in this country.

:52:28.:52:30.

Joining us now is Hamza Omir, who is a nurse.

:52:31.:52:40.

And the South East officer for the Royal College of Nursing.

:52:41.:52:43.

You speak to staff working in the NHS.

:52:44.:52:47.

What is the mood among EU nationals since the Brexit vote?

:52:48.:52:52.

I think they have become more anxious.

:52:53.:52:54.

They are uncertain about what will happen.

:52:55.:52:56.

The people here have to cope with having to leave their job

:52:57.:52:59.

Leaving their family, the country, to move to another country to work.

:53:00.:53:04.

If they come here, there is uncertainty about the future.

:53:05.:53:06.

There is a certain amount of challenges to face.

:53:07.:53:13.

That is why the figure that you have from the nursing

:53:14.:53:19.

As well as the decrease in terms of the number

:53:20.:53:23.

that we have an increase in number leaving off the register

:53:24.:53:25.

For example, the language test introduced at the same time

:53:26.:53:34.

It is not completely all due to the Brexit issue.

:53:35.:53:39.

If you look at the figures, it was still going up into July.

:53:40.:53:48.

The language test, when I have spoken to people, what tends

:53:49.:53:51.

to happen is that it slows the process.

:53:52.:53:54.

But all the big trusts provide support, the big trust, in terms

:53:55.:53:57.

Even the NMC has become more flexible.

:53:58.:54:04.

People can retake part of the tests if they haven't got through.

:54:05.:54:07.

The language test is going the process but not

:54:08.:54:09.

What would you like to hear from the Government?

:54:10.:54:12.

What we would like is greater certainty about these people.

:54:13.:54:16.

If they are moving across, they can see in the short

:54:17.:54:18.

and long-term positions whether they have a future here.

:54:19.:54:26.

To give him credit, the Health Secretary, Jeremy Hunt,

:54:27.:54:29.

He told the select committee recently we want to start in the EU

:54:30.:54:33.

to continue to work on NHS when we leave the European Union.

:54:34.:54:36.

And he says we are confident we can negotiate that.

:54:37.:54:40.

All that is empty words to be honest until the Government actually

:54:41.:54:43.

guarantees the position of EU people already here.

:54:44.:54:45.

We were told by many Leave campaigners that we wouldn't

:54:46.:54:50.

have a situation where those EU workers already here

:54:51.:54:53.

The Government has decided not to give that assurance.

:54:54.:54:58.

I think this should and could give that assurance and get

:54:59.:55:03.

lots of countries to say they would let Brits

:55:04.:55:06.

They have decided not to. I don't know why.

:55:07.:55:11.

It would be simple administrative process, instead we have

:55:12.:55:13.

It is affecting the NHS and other public services as well.

:55:14.:55:17.

Ultimately, it could end up costing our NHS money

:55:18.:55:19.

Maria Caulfield is not only a nurse, you are a Leave campaigner

:55:20.:55:26.

We already have a shortage in the NHS as you know.

:55:27.:55:33.

If numbers are applying to work down numbers leaving

:55:34.:55:36.

the nursing register are up, we are facing

:55:37.:55:38.

There is no guarantee around European health care professionals

:55:39.:55:49.

If the future is not certain, they will either go back to the EU

:55:50.:55:55.

One of the recommendations we made on the select committee

:55:56.:55:59.

when we heard evidence is that we should be giving

:56:00.:56:02.

certainty to EU citizens here who are working.

:56:03.:56:06.

Theresa May give that assurance at prime ministers questions this

:56:07.:56:12.

week was that she has been in talks with the other 27 member states.

:56:13.:56:19.

They are not doing rear steward if they are leaving in large numbers?

:56:20.:56:22.

The trouble is, she can't officially make it our policy

:56:23.:56:24.

because what she wants to do is get reassurance for the addition

:56:25.:56:27.

of this is leaving in -- living in the EU from

:56:28.:56:29.

They won't give that, particularly Germany won't give that.

:56:30.:56:33.

She has to have the interests of British citizens in mind

:56:34.:56:35.

Sorry, Maria, but by taking the position that she is,

:56:36.:56:39.

she is endangering our British citizens in other countries.

:56:40.:56:41.

If she says she would guarantee the position of EU residents here...

:56:42.:56:44.

She has said that she will only do it if other countries follow suit.

:56:45.:56:50.

Is there a danger that enraged after -- NHS staff become pawns

:56:51.:56:54.

She could have taken a different position and has decided not to.

:56:55.:56:59.

We don't want Brits and EU residency to be used as pawns in negotiations.

:57:00.:57:03.

If she took a moral high ground and said we will guarantee this

:57:04.:57:06.

situation, which a lot of Leave campaigners said would happen.

:57:07.:57:09.

She could and she has said that is what she wants to do.

:57:10.:57:13.

rights of Brits in the EU, then she would be very happy to do

:57:14.:57:17.

that quickly outside the negotiations as one

:57:18.:57:19.

Couldn't you just recruit more from other countries, Hamza,

:57:20.:57:24.

There has always been recruitment from other countries from.

:57:25.:57:27.

Clearly, when these people come in their assessment

:57:28.:57:30.

to go on the register is slightly different.

:57:31.:57:32.

With the EU, we have mutual recognition.

:57:33.:57:35.

At present, they just do a language test to be on the register.

:57:36.:57:41.

That is why all the hospitals are recruiting from Greece,

:57:42.:57:44.

Portugal, getting people to come quicker.

:57:45.:57:45.

The Government has pointed out it is investing in front-line staff,

:57:46.:57:48.

it is training thousands of new nurses to stop silly,

:57:49.:57:53.

it is better to train them from this country,

:57:54.:57:55.

then we don't have the language barrier, all the other problems

:57:56.:57:58.

They can say that, but at the same time

:57:59.:58:01.

They have a weird position on all of this.

:58:02.:58:08.

Ultimately, a lot of these changes are going to cost

:58:09.:58:11.

We are having a massive reorganisation that we were promised

:58:12.:58:16.

We have to focus on having decent patient care and making sure

:58:17.:58:20.

we have the right workforce to live with that.

:58:21.:58:22.

And we had a big drop in the number of people applying to study nursing

:58:23.:58:26.

That does sound like it is a direct result of Government policy

:58:27.:58:30.

to abolish these NHS bursaries that students use to get.

:58:31.:58:32.

I think I was very vocal in my opinion of scrapping the bursary.

:58:33.:58:37.

I did think we would see a drop in nursing numbers.

:58:38.:58:41.

But today Hamza's point about nurses outside the EU,

:58:42.:58:46.

I have seen it when nurses have applied to work

:58:47.:58:49.

here because they are outside the EU they have struggled to get

:58:50.:58:52.

What I am hoping as we are moving forward with Brexit,

:58:53.:58:55.

we will have a much more global immigration policy.

:58:56.:58:57.

If we have skills and shortages, we have to match up and make it

:58:58.:59:01.

possible for people to come and work it.

:59:02.:59:03.

If that doesn't happen, we are in I jotted territory, this

:59:04.:59:05.

They are already turning away nurses from countries outside

:59:06.:59:11.

Simply because we had people within the EU that

:59:12.:59:20.

if you were outside the EU or in the Commonwealth,

:59:21.:59:22.

I am hoping that that will change as we go forward.

:59:23.:59:26.

Now, time for some of the other news you may have missed in 60 seconds.

:59:27.:59:35.

A private members bill to ban authorities from describing murders

:59:36.:59:38.

as honour killings has been debated in the Commons.

:59:39.:59:40.

Nusrat Ghani, the MP for Wealden, said the term was unjustifiable.

:59:41.:59:43.

They are murder, assault, rape and enslavement.

:59:44.:59:52.

And we need to be able to use a language that is appropriate.

:59:53.:59:55.

Drivers in some parts of Kent could see the cost

:59:56.:59:57.

In Tunbridge Wells, the council is increasing pay and display

:59:58.:00:01.

charges for the third time in four years.

:00:02.:00:03.

While in Canterbury, parking permits will rise

:00:04.:00:05.

Is another example of a very greedy council.

:00:06.:00:11.

Treating residents it is meant to represent as a cash cow.

:00:12.:00:14.

But the council insists that the money would go

:00:15.:00:18.

And they were protests in Brighton and Broadstairs

:00:19.:00:22.

against Donald Trump's new immigration policy.

:00:23.:00:24.

Nationals from seven Muslim majority countries

:00:25.:00:25.

A petition has been signed by more than 1 million people to stop

:00:26.:00:31.

This was countered by another one created by a Dover businessmen

:00:32.:00:37.

We'll talk about the Labour Party, Anneliese, and that divisive vote

:00:38.:00:48.

in the Commons last week on article 50.

:00:49.:00:50.

If you had been an MP, would you have defied the whip

:00:51.:00:53.

Well, I am certainly not happy with the way

:00:54.:00:56.

I think what you saw was Labour MPs representing their constituencies

:00:57.:01:00.

which voted in a whole variety of different ways.

:01:01.:01:02.

I obviously see what is going on from the inside,

:01:03.:01:05.

being in Brussels and Strasbourg as well as here in the South East,

:01:06.:01:08.

and I am deeply concerned about what is going to happen

:01:09.:01:11.

What is going to happen to other local NHS,

:01:12.:01:14.

Or indeed the future of your own party, but I'm afraid

:01:15.:01:18.

That's the least of it, quite frankly.

:01:19.:01:23.

That's all we've got time for in the South East this week.

:01:24.:01:26.

My thanks to both my guess, Anneliese Dodds and Maria Caulfield,

:01:27.:01:28.

and Julia will be back here next week.

:01:29.:01:31.

programme at another time an airport expansion, but thank you to both of

:01:32.:01:34.

you for being here. Back to you, Andrew.

:01:35.:01:40.

Will the Government's plan to boost house-building

:01:41.:01:43.

Could a handful of Conservative MPs cause problems for

:01:44.:01:46.

And what is President Trump going to do next?

:01:47.:01:51.

You have been following the genesis of this housing white paper. What do

:01:52.:02:09.

you make of it? I think it will be quite spectacular, pretty radical

:02:10.:02:14.

stuff. We heard bits about beating up on developers. I understand it

:02:15.:02:18.

will be a whack, walk, covering every single problem with housing

:02:19.:02:23.

supply and trying to solve it. Which means bad news if you are a huge fan

:02:24.:02:27.

of the green belt, because they will go round that the other way by

:02:28.:02:31.

forcing large quotas on councils are making it down to councils where

:02:32.:02:35.

they build. If you fill up your brown space in towns they will have

:02:36.:02:39.

to trigger the exceptional circumstances bit of the bill to

:02:40.:02:43.

beat on green belts. Beating up developers, opening up the market

:02:44.:02:46.

for renters across the board. And Theresa May, one of the most

:02:47.:02:52.

defining thing she could do on the domestic agenda. I am not as excited

:02:53.:02:58.

as Tom about this. I look back to 2004, do you remember the Kate

:02:59.:03:05.

Barker report? Successive governments, successive prime

:03:06.:03:09.

ministers have been promising to address the housing shortage. In

:03:10.:03:13.

2004 Kate Barker recommended hundreds of thousands new homes.

:03:14.:03:17.

Gordon Brown talked about 3 million new homes by 2020 in 2007. It never

:03:18.:03:23.

happens. The reason is at the end of the day this is local politics,

:03:24.:03:26.

local councillors need to keep their seats and they won't keep their

:03:27.:03:29.

seats if there are hugely controversial developments locally

:03:30.:03:34.

that they support. Yes, the government can and are proposing to

:03:35.:03:38.

overrule councils that don't back local developments, but they may

:03:39.:03:42.

find themselves completely inundated with those cases. I think that is

:03:43.:03:46.

the whole point of it, to take on those NIMBY often Tory councils and

:03:47.:03:51.

force them to build. I can't think of a better defining issue for

:03:52.:03:59.

Theresa May than sticking one in the eye of some quite well off half Tory

:04:00.:04:06.

countryside councils. The government gives councils a quota of homes they

:04:07.:04:09.

have to fill, if they don't have to fill that all run out overland to

:04:10.:04:13.

fill the quota, the government then comes in and tells them they have to

:04:14.:04:17.

built on the green belt? How is that going to work? At the moment the

:04:18.:04:21.

green belt is absolutely sacrosanct in British politics. They'll have to

:04:22.:04:24.

do some work on educating people on what green belts means. Potato

:04:25.:04:31.

farms, golf courses... At the moment the idea people have of the green

:04:32.:04:36.

belt being verdant fields needs to be dismantled. You are right. I

:04:37.:04:41.

agree with Tom, 11 million people in the private rental sector in the UK.

:04:42.:04:45.

In the last election more voted Labour than conservative. This is an

:04:46.:04:49.

area where Theresa May would look to expand her vote. The problem has

:04:50.:04:53.

always been, the same problem we have with pension policy and why

:04:54.:04:58.

pensioners have done better than working families in recent years.

:04:59.:05:01.

They are older and they vote more and anything to the detriment of

:05:02.:05:09.

older people. I wonder how they will get private money to come in on

:05:10.:05:13.

anything like this go they would need to have a huge expansion? There

:05:14.:05:19.

is a huge amount of speculation and one of the thing that locks up the

:05:20.:05:23.

system as you have people buying land, taking out a stake of land in

:05:24.:05:27.

the hope that one point it may at some point free up. At the end of

:05:28.:05:30.

the day, unless you have councils far more willing to quickly fast

:05:31.:05:34.

track these applications, which they won't for the reason I said before,

:05:35.:05:38.

it's a very long-term investment. Ed Miliband proposed three-year leases

:05:39.:05:45.

in which the rent could only go up by an agreed formula, probably the

:05:46.:05:50.

three years to give the young families a certain stability over

:05:51.:05:55.

that period. He had a use it or lose it rules for planning development,

:05:56.:05:59.

if you don't use it you lose the planning rights. Somebody else gets

:06:00.:06:03.

it. The Tories disparaged that at the time. This is at the centre of

:06:04.:06:08.

their policy now. This is probably item number four of

:06:09.:06:12.

Ed Miliband's policy book Theresa May has wholesale pinched in the

:06:13.:06:16.

last six months or so. Why not? I think if you look at the change in

:06:17.:06:21.

mood across housing and planning over the last 5-6 years, it used to

:06:22.:06:26.

be an issue very much of green belt versus London planners. Now you have

:06:27.:06:30.

grandparents living in houses in the countryside, knowing their

:06:31.:06:32.

grandchildren can't get on the housing ladder any longer. Maybe a

:06:33.:06:39.

bit more intervention in the market, tougher on renting conditions, maybe

:06:40.:06:41.

that is exactly what the country needs. Will they meet the 1 million

:06:42.:06:47.

target? It would be a defiance of every political thing that has

:06:48.:06:50.

happened in the last ten years. I think Tom is right, if there is only

:06:51.:06:55.

one difference between Theresa May and David Cameron it's the

:06:56.:06:57.

willingness of the state to intervene. When Ed Miliband said

:06:58.:07:04.

that he was seen as communism, but Theresa May can get away with it.

:07:05.:07:09.

How serious is this talk of a couple of dozen Tories who were very loyal

:07:10.:07:16.

over voting for the principle of Article 50 but may now be tempted to

:07:17.:07:21.

vote for some amendments to Article 50 legislation that they would find

:07:22.:07:26.

quite attractive? I think that threat has certainly been taken

:07:27.:07:30.

seriously by levers. I spoke to the campaign group Leaves Means Leave

:07:31.:07:36.

last night. The figure they mentioned was up to 20 remaining

:07:37.:07:39.

Tories. That sounds a lot to me but that is what they are concerned

:07:40.:07:42.

about and those Tories would come together with Labour and the SNP to

:07:43.:07:48.

vote for that amendment. Although that amendment sounds rather nice

:07:49.:07:51.

and democratic, actually in the eyes of many levers that is a wrecking

:07:52.:07:56.

amendment. Because what you are doing is giving Parliament a sort of

:07:57.:08:00.

veto over whatever deal Theresa May brings back. What they want is the

:08:01.:08:04.

vote to be before that deal is finalised. It isn't necessarily the

:08:05.:08:08.

case that if Parliament decided they didn't like that deal we would just

:08:09.:08:14.

go to WTO, we would fall out of the European Union. There are mixed

:08:15.:08:17.

views as to whether we might remain in and things could be extended. My

:08:18.:08:22.

understanding is the people making the amendments, they won any deal

:08:23.:08:29.

that is done to be brought to Parliament in time, so that if

:08:30.:08:34.

Parliament fancies it it's done, but if it does and it doesn't just mean

:08:35.:08:38.

go to WTO rules. There will be time to go back, renegotiate or think

:08:39.:08:43.

again? The question is where it puts Britain's negotiating hand. Nine of

:08:44.:08:48.

the options... Once we trigger Article 50 the two negotiation

:08:49.:08:54.

begins on the power switches to Europe. They can run out the clock

:08:55.:08:57.

and it will be worse for us than them. I don't think either option is

:08:58.:09:00.

particularly appealing. I think what seems like a rather Serena week for

:09:01.:09:05.

Article 50 this week isn't going to be reflective of what will happen

:09:06.:09:09.

next. The way the government's position is at the moment, if at the

:09:10.:09:13.

end the only choice Parliament has is to vote for the deal or crash out

:09:14.:09:18.

on WTO rules, then even the remainder is going to vote for the

:09:19.:09:21.

deal even if they don't like it, because they would regard crashing

:09:22.:09:25.

out as the worst of all possible results. Possibly. It will be a

:09:26.:09:31.

great game of bluff if Theresa May fights off any of these amendments

:09:32.:09:35.

on Wednesday and gets a straightforward deal or no Deal

:09:36.:09:39.

vote. I have a funny feeling this amendment, if it's chosen, we must

:09:40.:09:42.

remember because we don't know if they will choose this amendment, if

:09:43.:09:47.

it does go to a vote on Wednesday it will be very tight indeed. Remember,

:09:48.:09:52.

one final thing Theresa May can do if she gets Parliament voting

:09:53.:09:57.

against, as Isabel would have it, she could try to get a new

:09:58.:10:00.

parliament and go for a general election. And probably get a huge

:10:01.:10:07.

majority to do so. The Lords, it goes there after the February

:10:08.:10:13.

recess. They are very pro-Europe, but does their instinct for

:10:14.:10:22.

self-preservation override that? I think that is it. A Tory Lord said

:10:23.:10:27.

this morning I will vote to block it on a conscience measure, but you

:10:28.:10:30.

have the likes of Bill Cash, veteran Eurosceptics, suddenly converted to

:10:31.:10:35.

the Lords reform saying is an outrage. I doubt they will vote for

:10:36.:10:39.

their own demise, to hasten their own demise by blocking it. What did

:10:40.:10:47.

you make of Doctor Gorka smart fascinating. Cut from the same cloth

:10:48.:10:51.

as his boss. I thought it was extraordinary listening to him,

:10:52.:10:53.

saying everything is going dutifully to plan. But at the end of the day,

:10:54.:10:58.

what they are doing is what people in America voted for Trump to do. If

:10:59.:11:02.

you look at Lord Ashcroft's polling on why America voted for Trump, they

:11:03.:11:06.

went into this with their eyes wide open. One of the top fears among

:11:07.:11:12.

American voters, particularly Republican leading ones was

:11:13.:11:15.

America's immigration policy is or could be letting in terror arrests.

:11:16.:11:19.

As far as he is concerned, he is doing what he was elected to do.

:11:20.:11:23.

This whole year is turning into a wonderful year long lecture series

:11:24.:11:26.

on how democracy works at a fundamental level. I'm not sure

:11:27.:11:30.

anyone wanted it but it's what we've got. This same in the way we've been

:11:31.:11:36.

talking about direct democracy and Parliamentary democracy. The same is

:11:37.:11:41.

happening in America between executive and judicial branches. We

:11:42.:11:43.

are seeing the limits of presidential power. Regardless of

:11:44.:11:47.

the fact that people voted for Trump they voted for senators. The judge

:11:48.:11:51.

who blocks this was appointed by George W Bush. So-called Judge

:11:52.:11:58.

Eckert Mac so-called George W Bush! It's fascinating we're having all

:11:59.:12:01.

these conversations now that I never bought five years ago we would be

:12:02.:12:06.

having at such a fundamental level. Has the media yet worked out how to

:12:07.:12:10.

cover the Trump administration or has he got us behaving like headless

:12:11.:12:14.

chickens? He says something incendiary and we all run over to do

:12:15.:12:19.

that and when you pick it off it turns out not to be as incendiary as

:12:20.:12:24.

we thought? And then back doing something and we all rush over

:12:25.:12:28.

there. Is he making fools of us? Is exactly what he did in the election

:12:29.:12:35.

campaign. So many quick and fast outrageous comments frontrunner on a

:12:36.:12:38.

daily basis, no one single one of them had full news cycle time to be

:12:39.:12:42.

pored over and examined. I think there is a problem with this.

:12:43.:12:45.

Although he keeps the upper hand, keeps the agenda and keeps on the

:12:46.:12:50.

populist ground, the problem is it easy to campaign like that. If you

:12:51.:12:54.

are governing in a state of semi-hysteria, I wonder how long the

:12:55.:12:57.

American public will be comfortable with that. They don't really want

:12:58.:13:00.

their government to be swirling chaos all the time, as fascinating

:13:01.:13:05.

as it might be on TV. They will be exhausted by it, I already am. I

:13:06.:13:12.

have been interviewing White House administration official since 1976

:13:13.:13:14.

and that is the first time someone hasn't given me a straight answer on

:13:15.:13:18.

America supporting the EU. That is a different world.

:13:19.:13:20.

Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two tomorrow at midday with

:13:21.:13:24.

the Daily Politics - and I'll be back here

:13:25.:13:26.

Remember, if it's Sunday - it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:27.:14:05.

TV: He's not your father. WOMAN GASPS

:14:06.:14:18.

so why not pay your TV licence in weekly instalments, too?

:14:19.:14:31.

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