01/12/2013 Sunday Politics South


01/12/2013

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Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. George Osborne

:00:36.:00:45.

announces a ?50 cut to annual household energy bills. We'll talk

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to Lib Dem president Tim Farron ahead of the Chancellor's mini

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budget this week. Net immigration is up for the first

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time in two years. Labour and the Tories say they want to bring it

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down, but how? Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper joins us for the

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Sunday Interview. The harder you shake the pack, the easier it will

:01:11.:01:14.

be for some cornflakes to get to the top. The Mayor of London says

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inequality and greed are essential to spur economic activity.

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capital is now a crisis. Another week, another strategy? Can this one

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deliver? And with me throughout today's

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programme, well, we've shaken the packet and look who's risen to the

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top. Or did we open it at the bottom? Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh

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and Sam Coates. All three will be tweeting throughout the programme

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using the hashtag #bbcsp. So, after weeks in which Ed Miliband's promise

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to freeze energy prices has set the Westminster agenda, the Coalition

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Government is finally coming up with its answer. This morning the

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Chancellor George Osborne explained how he plans to cut household energy

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bills by an average of fifty quid. What we're going to do is roll back

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the levees that are placed by government on people's electricity

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bills. This will mean that for the average bill payer, they will have

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?50 of those electricity and gas bills. That will help families. We

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are doing it in the way that government can do it. We are

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controlling the cost that families incurred because of government

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policies. We are doing it in a way that will not damage the environment

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or reduce our commitment to dealing with climate change. We will not

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produce commit men to helping low-income families with the cost of

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living. Janan, we are finally seeing the coalition begin to play its hand

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in response to the Ed Miliband freeze? They have been trying to

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respond for almost ten weeks and older responses have been quite

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fiddly. We are going to take a bit of tax year, put it onto general

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taxation, have a conversation with the energy companies, engineered a

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rebate of some kind, this is not very vivid. The advantage of the

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idea that they have announced overnight is that it is clear and it

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has a nice round figure attached to it, ?50. The chief of staff of

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President Obama, he said, if you are explaining, you're losing. The

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genius of this idea is that it does not require explanation. He would

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not drawn this morning on what agreement he had with the energy

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companies, and whether this would fall through to the bottom of the

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bill, but the way he spoke, saying, I am not going to pre-empt what the

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energy companies say, that suggests he has something up his sleeve. Yes,

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I thought so. The energy companies have made this so badly for so long.

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It would be awful if he announced this and the energy companies said,

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we are going to keep this money for ourselves. I do not think he is that

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stupid. The energy companies have an incentive to go along with this,

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don't they? My worry is that I am not sure how much it will be within

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the opinion polls. I think people might expect this now, it is not a

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new thing, it is not an exciting thing. Say in the markets, they may

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have priced the ten already. If by Thursday of this week, he is able to

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say, I have a ?50 cut coming to your bill. The energy companies have

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guaranteed that this will fall through onto your energy bill, and

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they have indicated to me that they themselves will not put up energy

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prices through 2014, has he shot the Ed Miliband Fox? I think he has a

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couple of challenges. It is still very hard. This is an answer for the

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next 12 months but did is no chance announced that Labour will stop

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saying they are going to freeze prices in the next Parliament. He

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will say, I have not just frozen them, I have done that as well and I

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have cut them. When people look at their energy bills, they are going

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up by more than ?50. This is a reduction in the amount that they

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are going up overall. Year on 08 will be for George Osborne. He will

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have to come up with something this time next year. The detail in the

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Sunday papers reveals that George Osborne is trying to get the energy

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companies to put on bills that ?50 has been knocked off your bill

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because of a reduction by the government. He is trying to get the

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energy companies to do his political bidding for him. It will be

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interesting to see if they go along with that, because then we will know

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how cross the arm with Ed Miliband. Let's get another perspective.

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Joining me now from Kendal in the Lake District is the president of

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the Liberal Democrats, Tim Farron. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Good

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morning. Let me ask you this, the coalition is rowing back on green

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taxes, I do comfortable with that or is it something else you will rebel

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against? I am very comfortable with the fact we are protecting for the

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money is going. I am open to where the money comes from. The notion

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that we should stop insulating the homes of elderly people or stop

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investing in British manufacturing in terms of green industry, that is

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something that I resolutely oppose, but I am pleased that the funding

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will be made available for all that. You cannot ignore the fact that for

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a whole range of reasons, mostly down to the actions of the energy

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companies, you have prices that are shooting up and affecting lots of

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people, making life hard. You cannot ignore that. If we fund the

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installation of homes for older people and others, if we protect

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British manufacturing jobs, and raise the money through general

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taxation, I am comfortable with that. It is not clear that is going

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to happen. It looks like the eco-scheme, whereby the energy

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companies pay for the installation of those on below-average incomes,

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they will spin that out over four years, not two years, and one

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estimate is that that will cost 10,000 jobs. You're always boasting

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about your commitment to green jobs, how do square that? I do not believe

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that. The roll-out will be longer. The number of houses reached will be

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greater and that is a good thing. My take is that it will not affect the

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number of jobs. People talk about green levies. There has been

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disparaging language about that sort of thing. There are 2 million people

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in this country in the lowest income families and they get ?230 off their

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energy bills because of what isn't -- because of what is disparaging

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the refer to as green stuff, shall we call it. There will be more

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properties covered. We both know that your party is being pushed into

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this by the Tories. You would not be doing this off your own bad. You are

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in coalition with people who have jettisoned their green Prudential

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is? -- credentials. You have made my point quite well. David Cameron's

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panicked response to this over the last few months was to ditch all the

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green stuff. It has been a job to make sure that we hold him to his

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pledges and the green cord of this government. That is why we are not

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scrapping the investment, we are making sure it is funded from

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general taxation. I am talking to you from Kendal. Lots of people

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struggle to pay their energy bills. But all these things pale into

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insignificance compared to the threat of climate change and we must

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hold the Prime Minister to account on this issue. Argue reconciled to

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the idea that as long as you're in coalition with the Tories you will

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never get a mansion tax? I am not reconciled to it. We are trying to

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give off other tax cut to the lowest income people. What about the

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mansion tax? That would be potentially paid for by another view

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source of finance. That would be that the wealthy... We know that is

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what you want, but you're not going to get that? We will keep fighting

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for it. It is extremely important. We can show where we will get the

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money from. I know that is the adamant. That is not what I asked

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you. Ed Balls and Labour run in favour of a mansion tax, have you

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talked to them about it? The honest answer is I have not. It is

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interesting that they have come round to supporting our policy

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having rejected it in power. So if Labour was the largest party in

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parliament but not in power, you would have no problem agreeing with

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a mansion tax as part of the deal? If the arithmetic falls in that way

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and that is the will of the British people, fear taxes on those who are

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wealthiest, stuff that is fear, which includes wealth taxes, in

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order to fund more reductions for those people on lowest incomes, that

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is the sort of thing that we might reach agreement on. You voted with

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Labour on the spare room subsidy. Again, that would be job done in any

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future coalition talks with Labour, correct? I take the view that the

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spare room subsidy, whilst entirely fail in principle, in practice it

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has caused immense hardship. I want to see that changed. There are many

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people in government to share my view on that. So does Labour. The

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problem was largely caused Labour because they oversaw an increase in

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housing costs both 3.5 times while they were in power. The government

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was forced into a position to tidy up an appalling mess that Labour

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left. You voted with Labour against it, and also, you want... No, I

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voted with the party conference. Let's not dance on the head of the

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ten. Maybe they voted with me. -- on the head of a pin. You are also in

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favour of a 50% top rate of income tax, so you and Labour are that one

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there as well? No, I take the view that the top rate of income tax is a

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fluid thing. All taxation levels are temporary. Nick Clegg said that when

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the 50p rate came down to 45, that was a rather foolish price tag

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George Osborne asked for in return for as increasing the threshold and

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letting several million people out of paying income tax at the bottom.

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So you agree with Labour? In favour of rising the tax to 50p. I take the

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view that we should keep our minds open on that. It is not the income

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tax level that bothers me, it is whether the wealthy pay their fresh

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air. If that can be done through other taxes, then that is something

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that I am happy with. -- their fair share. Given your position on the

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top rate of tax, on the spare room subsidy, how does the prospect of

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another five years of coalition with the Tories strike you? The answer

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is, you react with whatever you have about you to what the electorate

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hand you. Whatever happens after the next election, you have got to

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respect the will of the people. Yes, but how do you feel about it? We

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know about this, I am asking for your feeling. Does your heart left

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or does your heart fall at the prospect of another five years with

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the Tories? My heart would always follow the prospect of anything

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other than a majority of Liberal Democrat government. Your heart must

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be permanently in your shoes then. Something like that, but when all is

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said and done, we accept the will of the electorate. When you stand for

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election, you have got to put up with what the electorate say. I have

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not found coalition as difficult as you might suggest. It is about

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people who have to disagree and agree to differ. You work with

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people in your daily life that you disagree with. It is what grown-ups

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do. A lot of people in your party think that your positioning yourself

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to be the left-wing candidate in a post-Nick Clegg leadership contest.

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They think it is blatant manoeuvring. One senior figure says,

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this is about you. Which bit of the sanctimonious, treacherous little

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man is there not to like? What can I see in response to that. My job is

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to promote the Liberal Democrats. I have to do my best to consider what

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I'd defend to be right. By and large, my position as an MP in the

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Lake District, but also as the president of the party, is to

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reflect the will of people outside the Westminster village. That is the

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important thing to do. Thank you for joining us. David Cameron has said

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he wants to get it down to the tens of thousands, Ed Miliband has

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admitted New Labour "got it wrong", and Nick Clegg wants to be

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"zero-tolerant towards abuse". Yes, immigration is back on the political

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agenda, with figures released earlier this week showing that net

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migration is on the rise for the first time in two years. And that's

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not the only reason politicians are talking about it again.

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The issue of immigration has come into sharp focus because of concerns

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about the number of remaining ins and Bulgarians that can come to the

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UK next year. EU citizenship grants the right to free movement within

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the EU. But when Bulgaria and Romania joined in 2007, the

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government took up its right to apply temporary restrictions on

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movement. They must be lifted apply temporary restrictions on

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end of this year. According to the 2011 census, about one eyed 1

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million of the population in England and Wales is made up of people from

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countries who joined the EU in 2004. The government has played down

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expectations that the skill of migration could be repeated. This

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week David Cameron announced new restrictions on the ability of EU

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migrants to claim benefits. That was two, send a message. That prompted

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criticism is that the UK risks being seen as a nasty country. Yvette

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Cooper joins me now for the Sunday interview. Welcome to the Sunday

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Politics, Yvette Cooper. You criticised the coalition for not

:17:40.:17:44.

acting sooner on immigration from Romania and Bulgaria but the

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timetable for the unrestricted arrival in January was agreed under

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Labour many years ago, and given the battle that you had with the Polish

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and the Hungarians, what preparations did you make in power?

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We think that we should learn from some of the things that happened

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with migration. It would have been better to have transitional controls

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in place and look at the impact of what happened. But what preparations

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did you make in power? We set out a series of measures that the

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Government still had time to bring in. It is important that this should

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be a calm and measured debate. There was time to bring in measures around

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benefit restrictions, for example, and looking at the impact on the

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labour market, to make sure you do not have exploitation of cheap

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migrant Labour which is bad for everyone. I know that but I have

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asked you before and I am asking again, what did you do? We got

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things wrong in Government. I understand that I am not arguing.

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You are criticising them not preparing, a legitimate criticism,

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but what did you do in power? Well, I did think we did enough. Did you

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do anything? We signed the agency workers directive but too slowly. We

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needed measures like that. We did support things like the social

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chapter and the minimum wage, but I have said before that we did not do

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enough and that is why we recommended the measures in March. I

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understand that is what you did in opposition and I take that. I put

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the general point to you that given your failure to introduce controls

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on the countries that joined in 2004, alone among the major EU

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economies we did that, should we not keep an embarrassed silence on these

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matters? You have no credibility. I think you have got to talk about

:19:42.:19:44.

immigration. One of the things we did not do in Government was

:19:45.:19:47.

discussed immigration and the concerns people have and the

:19:48.:19:55.

long-term benefits that we know have come from people who have come to

:19:56.:19:57.

Britain over many generations contributing to Britain and having a

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big impact. I think we recognise that there are things that we did

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wrong, but it would be irresponsible for us not to join the debate and

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suggest sensible, practical measures that you can introduce now to

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address the concerns that people have, but also make sure that the

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system is fair and managed. Immigration is important to Britain

:20:18.:20:19.

but it does have to be controlled and managed in the right way. Let's

:20:20.:20:24.

remind ourselves of your record on immigration. The chart you did not

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consult when in power. This is total net migration per year under Labour.

:20:30.:20:34.

2.2 million of net rise in migration, more than the population

:20:35.:20:41.

of Birmingham, you proud of that? -- twice the population. Are you proud

:20:42.:20:49.

of that or apologising for it? We set the pace of immigration was too

:20:50.:20:52.

fat and the level was too high and it is right to bring migration down.

:20:53.:20:58.

So you think that was wrong? Overruled have been huge benefits

:20:59.:21:03.

from people that have come to Britain and built our biggest

:21:04.:21:09.

businesses. -- overall. They have become Olympic medal winners. But

:21:10.:21:13.

because the pace was too fast, that has had an impact. That was because

:21:14.:21:17.

of the lack of transitional controls from Eastern Europe and it is why we

:21:18.:21:21.

should learn from that and have sensible measures in place now, as

:21:22.:21:25.

part of what has got to be a calm debate. These are net migration

:21:26.:21:31.

figures. They don't often show the full figure. These are the

:21:32.:21:36.

immigration figures coming in. What that chart shows is that in terms of

:21:37.:21:39.

the gross number coming into this country, from the year 2000, it was

:21:40.:21:47.

half a million a year under Labour. Rising to 600,000 by the time you

:21:48.:21:52.

were out of power. A lot of people coming into these crowded islands,

:21:53.:21:55.

particularly since most of them come to London and the South East. Was

:21:56.:22:01.

that intentional? Was that out of control? Is that what you are now

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apologising for? What we said was that the Government got the figures

:22:07.:22:11.

wrong on the migration from Eastern Europe. If you remember particularly

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there was the issue of what happened with not having transitional

:22:16.:22:20.

controls in place. The Government didn't expect the number of people

:22:21.:22:24.

coming to the country to be the way it was. And so obviously mistakes

:22:25.:22:29.

were made. We have recognised that. We have also got to recognise that

:22:30.:22:33.

this is something that has happened in countries all over the world. We

:22:34.:22:38.

travel and trade far more than ever. We have an increasingly globalised

:22:39.:22:41.

economy. Other European countries have been affected in the same way,

:22:42.:22:45.

and America, and other developing countries affected in the same way

:22:46.:22:50.

by the scale of migration. I am trying to work out whether the

:22:51.:22:55.

numbers were intentional or if you lost control. The key thing that we

:22:56.:22:59.

have said many times and I have already said it to you many times,

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Andrew, that we should have a transitional controls in place on

:23:04.:23:06.

Eastern Europe. I think that would have had an impact on them level of

:23:07.:23:12.

migration. We also should have brought in the points -based system

:23:13.:23:15.

earlier. We did bring that in towards the end and it did restrict

:23:16.:23:19.

the level of low skilled migration because there are different kinds of

:23:20.:23:22.

migration. University students coming to Britain brings in billions

:23:23.:23:26.

of pounds of investment. On the other hand, low skilled migration

:23:27.:23:30.

can have a serious impact on the jobs market, pay levels and so on at

:23:31.:23:36.

the low skilled end of the labour market. We have to distinguish

:23:37.:23:40.

between different kinds of migration. You keep trying to excuse

:23:41.:23:44.

the figures by talking about the lack of transitional controls. Can

:23:45.:23:48.

we skip the chart I was going to go to? The next one. Under Labour, this

:23:49.:23:53.

is the source of where migrants came from. The main source was not the

:23:54.:23:59.

accession countries or the remainder of Europe. Overwhelmingly they were

:24:00.:24:05.

from the African Commonwealth, and the Indian subcontinent.

:24:06.:24:08.

Overwhelmingly, these numbers are nothing to do with transitional

:24:09.:24:12.

controls. You can control that immigration entirely because they

:24:13.:24:16.

are not part of the EU. Was that a mistake? First of all, the big

:24:17.:24:21.

increase was in the accession groups. Not according to the chart.

:24:22.:24:27.

In terms of the increase, the changes that happened. Secondly, in

:24:28.:24:31.

answer to the question that you just asked me, we should also have

:24:32.:24:34.

introduced the points -based system at an earlier stage. Thirdly there

:24:35.:24:39.

has been a big increase in the number of university students coming

:24:40.:24:42.

to Britain and they have brought billions of pounds of investment. At

:24:43.:24:46.

the moment the Government is not distinguishing, it is just using the

:24:47.:24:50.

figure of net migration. And that is starting to go up again, as you said

:24:51.:24:54.

in the introduction, but the problem is that it treats all kinds of

:24:55.:24:58.

migration is aimed. It does not address illegal immigration, which

:24:59.:25:03.

is a problem, but it treats university graduates coming to

:25:04.:25:07.

Britain in the same way as low skilled workers. If Labour get back

:25:08.:25:12.

into power, is it your ambition to bring down immigration? We have

:25:13.:25:16.

already said it is too high and we would support measures to bring it

:25:17.:25:21.

down. You would bring it down? There is something called student visas,

:25:22.:25:24.

which is not included in the figures, and it does not include

:25:25.:25:30.

university graduates, and it is a figure that has increased

:25:31.:25:40.

substantially in recent years. They come for short-term study but they

:25:41.:25:43.

do not even have to prove that they come for a college course. They do

:25:44.:25:46.

not even have to have a place to come. Those visas should be

:25:47.:25:48.

restricted to prevent abuse of the system and that is in line with a

:25:49.:25:50.

recommendation from the Inspectorate and that is the kind of practical

:25:51.:25:53.

thing that we could do. Can you give us a ballpark figure of how much

:25:54.:25:58.

immigration would fall? You have seen the mess that Theresa May has

:25:59.:26:02.

got into with her figures. She made a target that it is clear to me that

:26:03.:26:07.

she will not meet. I think that is right. She will not meet it. Can you

:26:08.:26:29.

give as a ballpark figure by which we can judge you? If she had been

:26:30.:26:33.

more sensible and taken more time to listen to experts and decide what

:26:34.:26:35.

measures should be targeted, then she would not be in this mess. You

:26:36.:26:38.

cannot give me a figure? She has chosen net migration. She has set a

:26:39.:26:40.

target, without ifs and buts. I think it is important not to have a

:26:41.:26:43.

massive gap between the rhetoric and reality. Not to make promises on

:26:44.:26:45.

numbers which are not responsible. OK, you won't give me a figure.

:26:46.:26:50.

Fine. Moving on to crime. 10,000 front line police jobs have gone

:26:51.:26:55.

since 2010 but crime continues to fall. 7% down last year alone. When

:26:56.:26:59.

you told the Labour conference that you do not cut crime by cutting the

:27:00.:27:05.

police, you were wrong. I think the Government is being very complacent

:27:06.:27:07.

about what is happening to crime. Crime patterns are changing. There

:27:08.:27:12.

has been an exponential increase, and that is in the words of the

:27:13.:27:18.

police, in online crime. We have also seen, for example, domestic

:27:19.:27:26.

violence going up, but prosecutions dropping dramatically. There is a

:27:27.:27:30.

serious impact as a result of not having 10,000 police in place. You

:27:31.:27:34.

have talked about the exponential increase in online and economic

:27:35.:27:38.

crime. If those are the big growth areas, why have bobbies on the beat?

:27:39.:27:45.

That would make no difference. It is about an approach to policing that

:27:46.:27:48.

has been incredibly successful over many years, which Labour introduced,

:27:49.:27:52.

which is neighbourhood policing in the community is working hard with

:27:53.:27:56.

communities to prevent crime. People like to see bobbies on the beat but

:27:57.:28:00.

have you got any evidence that it leads to a reduction in crime?

:28:01.:28:05.

Interestingly, the Lords Stevens commission that we set up, they have

:28:06.:28:09.

reported this week and it has been the equivalent of a Royal

:28:10.:28:12.

commission, looking at the number of people involved in it. Their strong

:28:13.:28:17.

recommendation was that this is about preventing crime but also

:28:18.:28:21.

respectful law and order, working with communities, and so they

:28:22.:28:24.

strongly took the view with all of their expertise and the 30 different

:28:25.:28:28.

universities that they have involved with it, that on the basis of all

:28:29.:28:31.

that analysis, the right thing was to keep bobbies on the beat and not

:28:32.:28:37.

push them cars. Instinctively you would think it was true. More

:28:38.:28:42.

visible policing, less crime. But in all the criminology work, I cannot

:28:43.:28:47.

find the evidence. There is competing work about why there has

:28:48.:28:51.

been a 20 year drop in overall crime and everybody has different opinions

:28:52.:28:55.

on why that has happened. The point about neighbourhood policing is that

:28:56.:28:58.

it is broader than crime-fighting. It is about prevention and community

:28:59.:29:05.

safety. Improving the well-being of communities as well. Will you keep

:29:06.:29:10.

the elected Police Commissioners? Big sigh! What the report said was

:29:11.:29:15.

that the system is flawed. We raised concern about this at the beginning.

:29:16.:29:21.

You will remember at the elections, Theresa May's flagship policy, at

:29:22.:29:27.

the elections they cost ?100 million and there was 15% turnout. You have

:29:28.:29:31.

to have a system of accountability at the police. Three options were

:29:32.:29:37.

presented, all of which are forms. So you have to have reform. It is

:29:38.:29:42.

not whether to have reformed, it is which of those options is the best

:29:43.:29:52.

way to do it. The commission set out a series of options, and I thought

:29:53.:29:58.

that the preferable approach would be collaboration and voluntary

:29:59.:30:02.

mergers. We know they won't volunteer. There have been some

:30:03.:30:07.

collaboration is taking place. I think the issues with police and

:30:08.:30:11.

crime commissioners have fragmented things and made it harder to get

:30:12.:30:15.

collaboration between police forces. Everybody is asking this

:30:16.:30:19.

question, just before you go. What is it like living with a nightmare?

:30:20.:30:27.

Who does all the cooking, so I can't complain! Says Miliband people are

:30:28.:30:36.

wrong, he is a dream cook? He is! In a speech this week, Boris Johnson

:30:37.:30:39.

praised greed and envy as essential for economic progress, and that has

:30:40.:30:43.

got tongues wagging. What is the Mayor of London up to? What is his

:30:44.:30:48.

game plan? Does he even have a game plan and does he know if he has one?

:30:49.:30:58.

Flash photography coming up. Boris. In many ways I can leave it there.

:30:59.:31:02.

You'd know who I meant. And if you didn't, the unruly mop of blonde

:31:03.:31:13.

hair would tell you, the language. Ping-pong was invented on the dining

:31:14.:31:16.

tables of England. Somehow pulling off the ridiculous to the sublime.

:31:17.:31:34.

It is going to go zoink off the scale! But often having to speed

:31:35.:31:36.

away from the whiff-whaff of scandal. Boris, are you going to

:31:37.:31:41.

save your manage? There's always been a question about

:31:42.:31:45.

him and his as role as mayor and another prized position, as hinted

:31:46.:31:48.

to the Tory faithful this year at conference, discussing former French

:31:49.:31:54.

Prime Minister Alan Juppe. -- Alain Juppe. He told me he was going to be

:31:55.:32:02.

the mayor of Bordeaux. I think he may have been mayor well he was

:32:03.:32:07.

Prime Minister, it is the kind of thing they do in funds -- AvD in

:32:08.:32:13.

France. It is a good idea, if you ask me. But is it a joke? He is much

:32:14.:32:22.

more ambitious. Boris wants to be Prime Minister more than anything

:32:23.:32:26.

else. Perhaps more than he wants to be made of London. The ball came

:32:27.:32:34.

loose from the back of the scrum. Of course it would give great thing to

:32:35.:32:39.

have a crack at, but it is not going to happen. He might be right. First,

:32:40.:32:44.

the Conservatives have a leader, another Old Etonian, Oxford,

:32:45.:32:47.

Bullingdon chap and he has the job Boris might like a crack at. What do

:32:48.:32:54.

you do with a problem like Boris? It is one of the great paradoxes of

:32:55.:32:58.

Tory politics that for Boris Johnson to succeed, David Cameron must feel.

:32:59.:33:04.

Boris needs David Cameron to lose so that he can stand a chance of

:33:05.:33:08.

becoming loser. -- becoming leader. And disloyalty is punished by

:33:09.:33:11.

Conservatives. Boris knows the man who brought down Margaret Thatcher.

:33:12.:33:13.

Michael Heseltine, who Boris replaced as MP for Henley, never got

:33:14.:33:20.

her job. In 1986, she took on the member for Henley, always a risky

:33:21.:33:30.

venture. And why might he make such a jibe, because he's won two more

:33:31.:33:34.

elections than the PM. Conservatives like a winner. Boris, against Robert

:33:35.:33:43.

expectations, has won the Mayor of London job twice. -- public. He

:33:44.:33:53.

might've built a following with the grassroots but he's on shakier

:33:54.:33:56.

ground with many Tory MPs, who see him as a selfish clown, unfit for

:33:57.:34:03.

high office. And besides, he's not the only one with king-sized

:34:04.:34:06.

ambition, and Boris and George are not close, however much they may

:34:07.:34:13.

profess unity. There is probably some Chinese expression for a

:34:14.:34:19.

complete and perfect harmony. Ying and yang. But in plain black and

:34:20.:34:23.

white, if Boris has a plan, it's one he can't instigate, and if David

:34:24.:34:27.

Cameron is PM in 2016, it may not be implementable. He'd need a seat and

:34:28.:34:32.

it wouldn't be plain sailing if he did make a leadership bid. My

:34:33.:34:38.

leadership chances, I think I may have told you before, or about as

:34:39.:34:43.

good as my chances of ying reincarnated as a baked bean. Which

:34:44.:34:48.

is probably quite high. So if the job you want with Brown-esque desire

:34:49.:34:51.

is potentially never to be yours what do you do? He is, of course, an

:34:52.:35:00.

American citizen by birth. He was born in New York public hospital,

:35:01.:35:04.

and so he is qualified to be President of the United States. And

:35:05.:35:09.

you don't need an IQ over 16 to find that the tiniest bit scary.

:35:10.:35:15.

Giles Dilnot reporting. Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh and Sam Coates are

:35:16.:35:21.

here. Is there a plan for Boris, and if so, what is it? I think the plan

:35:22.:35:27.

is for him to say what he thinks the Tory activist base wants to hear

:35:28.:35:31.

just now. He knows that in 18 months time they can disown it. I think he

:35:32.:35:37.

is wrong, the way the speech has played has a limited number of

:35:38.:35:43.

people. He has cross-party appeal. He has now reconfirmed to people

:35:44.:35:46.

that the Tories are the nasty party and they have been pretending to be

:35:47.:35:53.

modernised. Is it not the truth that he needs David Cameron to lose the

:35:54.:35:57.

2015 election to become leader in this decade? It is very interesting

:35:58.:36:04.

watching his fortunes wax and wane. It always seems to happen in inverse

:36:05.:36:08.

proportion to how well David Cameron is doing in front of his own party.

:36:09.:36:13.

There is no small element of strategy about what we are doing

:36:14.:36:17.

here. The problem with Boris is that he's popular with the country, but

:36:18.:36:22.

not with the party's MPs and its hard-core supporters. This was an

:36:23.:36:29.

appeal to the grassroots this week. He is not the only potential

:36:30.:36:34.

candidate. If we were in some kind of circumstance where Boris was a

:36:35.:36:39.

runner to replace Mr Cameron, who with the other front the? I think it

:36:40.:36:48.

will skip a generation. The recent intake was ideological assertive. I

:36:49.:36:54.

do not buy the idea that it will be Jeremy Hunt against Michael Gove. I

:36:55.:36:58.

then, that generation will be tainted by being in government. It

:36:59.:37:07.

is interesting, what is he trying to pull? He is ideological. He does not

:37:08.:37:13.

believe in many things, but he believes in a few things quite

:37:14.:37:18.

deeply, and one is the idea of competition, both in business and

:37:19.:37:23.

academic selection. He has never been squeamish about expressing

:37:24.:37:30.

that. We do make mistakes sometimes, assuming he is entirely political.

:37:31.:37:36.

Look at all the Northern voters who will not vote for the Tories even

:37:37.:37:40.

though they are socially or economic the Conservatives. I do not think he

:37:41.:37:47.

helps. Who in the Tories would help? That is a tough question. To

:37:48.:37:53.

reason me has also been speaking to the hard right. -- Theresa May. I

:37:54.:38:03.

have been out with him at night. It is like dining with a film star.

:38:04.:38:05.

People are queueing up to speak to People are queueing up to speak to

:38:06.:38:10.

him. Educational selection is one of the few areas that he can offer. He

:38:11.:38:15.

has gone liberal on immigration, as are made of London would have to.

:38:16.:38:32.

Welcome to Sunday Politics South ` my name's Peter Henley. On today's

:38:33.:38:35.

show. Digging up the past. As councils cut

:38:36.:38:38.

or even close their archaeology departments, are we in danger of

:38:39.:38:41.

losing our local heritage because nobody knows where the bodies are

:38:42.:38:54.

buried? Let's meet the politicians who will be with me for the next 20

:38:55.:38:58.

minutes, Diane James fought the by`election for UKIP. And Catherine

:38:59.:39:04.

Beard is a Liberal Democrat MEP for the south`east. Opposite sides of in

:39:05.:39:11.

out on Europe. But both agreed that this James Watson private lenders

:39:12.:39:15.

referendum Bill is something you do not appear approve of? We want a

:39:16.:39:23.

referendum but we do not want the private members bill as it is

:39:24.:39:26.

styled. The electoral commission has made it plain it is unhappy with the

:39:27.:39:31.

wording which is an interesting point because that is an

:39:32.:39:34.

authoritative wadi in terms of how this sort of matter should be

:39:35.:39:40.

addressed. Albeit it does is followed this `` all this does is

:39:41.:39:45.

follow the issue of 2017 referendum whereas we are seeing we need a

:39:46.:39:48.

referendum before that. The bill that have happened and make still

:39:49.:39:55.

have happened, it would have been more preferable to UKIP because it

:39:56.:39:59.

would have brought the key date forward. Both bills do not address

:40:00.:40:03.

the key issue. You are saying they are better things to talk about at

:40:04.:40:06.

the moment? Absolutely, we have little enough Parliamentary time is

:40:07.:40:10.

an European scrutiny and waiting time on a private members bill,

:40:11.:40:15.

which we are all agreed, we need the referendum but the Liberal Democrats

:40:16.:40:19.

say we will have a referendum when there are some that do have a vote

:40:20.:40:24.

about. Is there not already? The legislation that we have supported

:40:25.:40:28.

in this government is when there is a change to our nation shipped to

:40:29.:40:31.

the European Union, that is when we should have a referendum. `` in our

:40:32.:40:36.

relationship. It would most likely be in or out, would you except the

:40:37.:40:41.

treaty change. And you think you could get somewhere with the

:40:42.:40:46.

renegotiation? It is difficult to go in and say, I am holding a big

:40:47.:40:51.

hammer. That is not the way to do business. You don't do that. Do you

:40:52.:40:59.

agree that it will not get very far? He says he wants to renegotiate all

:41:00.:41:04.

the competencies, there are 32. Trying to address the issues within

:41:05.:41:10.

each of them is even going to be a tall order by 2017 for David

:41:11.:41:15.

Cameron. Then you have still got to get agreement with the other member

:41:16.:41:19.

states. It is like saying, I want to play with your football club and not

:41:20.:41:26.

play by the offside rule. When we do have the referendum the Lib Dems

:41:27.:41:31.

will be fighting because we are the party of in.

:41:32.:41:34.

It is of course a month until controls on the numbers of Bulgarian

:41:35.:41:37.

and Romanian workers who can come to the UK are lifted. This week the

:41:38.:41:40.

Prime Minister announced that he wants to see a ban on people from

:41:41.:41:44.

those countries being able to access parts of the welfare state, for

:41:45.:41:47.

example preventing them from claiming housing benefit. What we

:41:48.:41:50.

are doing is sending a signal that of course, there is the right to

:41:51.:41:55.

take up job places around the European Union and people take

:41:56.:41:58.

advantage of that. But actually it is right to say that it is not a

:41:59.:42:02.

right, not a freedom to claim benefits. Also for the longer term,

:42:03.:42:06.

as new countries join the European Union, I am not satisfied with the

:42:07.:42:10.

system we have today which is why I want a renegotiation of the European

:42:11.:42:14.

Union, a change in the rules and then a referendum so people here in

:42:15.:42:18.

the UK can decide whether to stay in that reformed European Union,

:42:19.:42:22.

including reform to free movement and benefit rights, or leave that

:42:23.:42:24.

European Union. When the last group of Eastern

:42:25.:42:27.

European countries joined the EU in 2004, many Poles came over to work

:42:28.:42:31.

in the South, many of them in Southampton. At one point the

:42:32.:42:35.

estimate was that one in ten of the city's population was Polish.

:42:36.:42:38.

Joining me now are Royston Smith, who was the Conservative leader of

:42:39.:42:41.

the city council for much of the time those people were moving here,

:42:42.:42:45.

and Dr Paulina Trevena, who's been working on a study of that

:42:46.:42:53.

community's experiences. Royston, there was a feeling that we did not

:42:54.:42:57.

expect what happened in Southampton. There were specific pressures, want

:42:58.:43:02.

there? There were. The numbers have been hugely exaggerated. UKIP during

:43:03.:43:06.

the Eastleigh by`election exaggerated the numbers. But it was

:43:07.:43:09.

a significant impact. Some would talk about one in ten of the

:43:10.:43:13.

population, it was less than that, I know it was less than that because

:43:14.:43:17.

we were having to say we have this many Eastern European but the

:43:18.:43:20.

government are only funding of sport seven or 8000. When you are

:43:21.:43:25.

underfunded it puts pressure on services. This is not a racist or

:43:26.:43:30.

immigration issue, it was a funding issue for Southampton. You did not

:43:31.:43:34.

know if second hammer people had come here, what they needed, they

:43:35.:43:40.

were just `` just how many people came here. They were turning up

:43:41.:43:43.

saying, we need housing? They had jobs a lot of the time and maybe...

:43:44.:43:50.

Many did have jobs. They were coming through agencies. Yes, we could only

:43:51.:43:57.

count them through national insurance registrations. In

:43:58.:44:01.

Southampton we did not have that, we were not sophisticated enough, we

:44:02.:44:06.

had to pretty much guess. We knew because of the services that people

:44:07.:44:08.

were applying for and because there was a Polish community anyway, this

:44:09.:44:13.

`` the numbers were significant. Down the road in Portsmouth, there

:44:14.:44:16.

were almost none. Southampton had a bit influx of Eastern Europeans

:44:17.:44:24.

advanced and it swamped us. We are still trying to find out exactly why

:44:25.:44:28.

people came to Southampton. It is an interesting issue and I have been

:44:29.:44:31.

trying to find that out in a research. There are a lot of

:44:32.:44:35.

different story around that, one is that before Poland and the other

:44:36.:44:40.

Eastern European countries are in the EU, there was an agreement

:44:41.:44:43.

between the Labour officers in Poland and in Southampton so there

:44:44.:44:48.

were already people working here before Poland joined the EU. There

:44:49.:44:52.

were already networks of people working prior to EU accession here.

:44:53.:44:59.

And when accession took place, these people brought their families,

:45:00.:45:03.

friends and so on. And then work gets back, there is work, it is a

:45:04.:45:08.

decent place to live and you get a second wave of people? It continues

:45:09.:45:13.

to build? Looking forward, then, what would you say we need to know

:45:14.:45:18.

about Bulgarian and remaining immigration? Will there be

:45:19.:45:20.

particular places in the country where they might head for? ``

:45:21.:45:27.

Romanian immigration? It is difficult to answer because there is

:45:28.:45:31.

little data out there on particular locations where people live. It was

:45:32.:45:35.

the same problem only when researching Polish migrants living

:45:36.:45:38.

in rural areas, there was basically no data to go by. Basically I needed

:45:39.:45:44.

to go out and find them. You did that in Dorset? Yes, and in

:45:45.:45:49.

Scotland. Could you talk to the one big employer, would they have had

:45:50.:45:57.

and understanding? The issue is that many employers are not keen to talk

:45:58.:45:59.

to you. There are many employers are not keen to talk

:46:00.:46:07.

to you. There also issues about how migrants are employed, particularly

:46:08.:46:11.

in rural areas in agriculture. But many of the employers are very keen

:46:12.:46:14.

on employing Eastern European workers because they are

:46:15.:46:18.

hard`working, ready to accept the conditions that they are offered.

:46:19.:46:23.

They have often either asked agencies to source people from

:46:24.:46:26.

abroad or they have asked the workers they already have in place

:46:27.:46:30.

to bring over friends and families to work with them. What David

:46:31.:46:35.

Cameron is doing, I turn to our politicians, what he's doing is

:46:36.:46:38.

looking at things like the minimum wage. That is important, isn't it?

:46:39.:46:43.

Rather than just putting up border controls. It would be, Peter, but

:46:44.:46:47.

the point has been made. It is about the package of conditions. There are

:46:48.:46:52.

stories around the UK, it is even happening in Surrey, for instance,

:46:53.:46:55.

where Inprise are bringing these individuals over and they are

:46:56.:46:59.

offering them a package which undermines the minimum wage issue

:47:00.:47:03.

will stop it might include accommodation and transport. That is

:47:04.:47:08.

not a good idea, it is not something which anyone should be endorsing or

:47:09.:47:11.

encouraging but it is happening. That acts as an encouragement to

:47:12.:47:15.

individuals coming across. It makes it that much more difficult for our

:47:16.:47:19.

young people over here, and we have got 1 million of them, why should

:47:20.:47:23.

they not have the opportunity to at least try for those jobs? If they

:47:24.:47:27.

cannot find the minimum wage allocated for them, a very difficult

:47:28.:47:32.

situation. But Bulgaria and Romania might be different to Poland. They

:47:33.:47:37.

have been able to go to other parts of the European Union, whereas

:47:38.:47:41.

Poland did not. That is a fair comment. There have been estimates

:47:42.:47:45.

of somewhere in the region of 2 million nationals from both of those

:47:46.:47:49.

countries who have already left Bulgaria and Rumania and settled in

:47:50.:47:53.

other parts of Europe. They have made that first move. First move?

:47:54.:47:58.

Yes, they have left their countries and on to say, France, Spain or

:47:59.:48:04.

Germany. For them, it is the next step to potentially come here. What

:48:05.:48:10.

you think of that? Bulgaria and Rumania, their second language is

:48:11.:48:14.

not generally English. Where and in Poland it tended to be. We have had

:48:15.:48:18.

a long history of relationships with Poland. Bog area and Romain here are

:48:19.:48:24.

`` bog area and Romania are most likely to have Italian as their

:48:25.:48:29.

second language. It is important that we make sure that the terms and

:48:30.:48:35.

conditions, if you want is to bring them a package to come over, you

:48:36.:48:38.

have to pay the minimum wage. That is something we must enforce. It is

:48:39.:48:43.

not going to be happening in time for January one. That is the nail on

:48:44.:48:51.

the head. If you talk to my Bulgarian and Rumania and

:48:52.:48:53.

colleagues, they say there is no way that people are looking to come

:48:54.:48:59.

here. Across Europe, they are saying the level of racism is getting home

:49:00.:49:07.

`` higher. It is not racism, it is migration watch, that is

:49:08.:49:10.

authoritative, they have an estimate of 50,000. We can talk about all

:49:11.:49:16.

sorts of numbers and pluck them out of fresh air. You have studied what

:49:17.:49:20.

happened with the Polish, when you look at the estimates, do you think

:49:21.:49:23.

we really understand what will happen? It is very difficult to work

:49:24.:49:30.

out what will happen. It is near impossible. What is very important

:49:31.:49:35.

is take context into consideration. The British government was sending

:49:36.:49:38.

out a totally different message those years ago when Poland were

:49:39.:49:44.

joining. It was very much, we have 500,000 vacancies to fill, we need

:49:45.:49:48.

workers. Now the message is very different. And people are not

:49:49.:49:52.

encouraged. Is it posturing for Bulgaria and Romania 's Mac sake or

:49:53.:49:58.

is it 48 British `` is it for a British audience? I think it is

:49:59.:50:04.

both. It is all very well for us to say we do not think very many will

:50:05.:50:07.

come or they will all come, we do not know. We need to deal with that.

:50:08.:50:12.

If we do not put something in which discourages people who are not

:50:13.:50:15.

coming in here to fill vacancies, that perhaps some of our workers

:50:16.:50:19.

will not do or are not qualified to do, if we do not send a message that

:50:20.:50:23.

you cannot come here and spend your life on the UK's generous benefit

:50:24.:50:27.

system, you would have to say that they will come. The rights to move

:50:28.:50:33.

and work is enshrined in the treaties. There are over 2 million

:50:34.:50:37.

Ritz living and working in other parts of the European Union. We have

:50:38.:50:41.

to protect that. We do not have to protect the right to come here and

:50:42.:50:46.

protect benefits `` take benefits. Or leave the European Union

:50:47.:50:52.

altogether. Thank you for coming and talking to us.

:50:53.:50:55.

For the last 30 years or so archaeology has been on the rise. A

:50:56.:50:58.

generation fuelled by Indiana Jones, and shows like Time Team ensured

:50:59.:51:01.

university courses were full to bursting. But things have changed.

:51:02.:51:04.

Harrison Ford has grown old and Tony Robinson has put down his trowel

:51:05.:51:09.

after 20 years. Add to this the recession, with councils deciding

:51:10.:51:12.

they can do without local archaeologists, and changes to

:51:13.:51:14.

planning laws that have downgraded the importance of protecting

:51:15.:51:17.

archaeology, and as our Hampshire political reporter Paul Greer has

:51:18.:51:20.

been finding out, you have the perfect storm for this ancient

:51:21.:51:21.

profession. I am walking along Southampton's

:51:22.:51:40.

amazing medieval walls. It is from this very spot that Henry V inbox

:51:41.:51:48.

his army for France and Agincourt. Henry fifth, we happy band of

:51:49.:51:52.

Brothers? Once more unto the breach? I will come down! What I am trying

:51:53.:52:01.

to say is, if you go a mile that weight you come to an old Saxon

:52:02.:52:06.

town. I'll update River is an `` a mile up the river is an old Roman

:52:07.:52:11.

fort. It is not the archaeology of it is rare. It is the

:52:12.:52:17.

archaeologists. Southampton Council archaeology team has been cut by

:52:18.:52:21.

half. Other cities like Exeter have closed there is entirely. Even

:52:22.:52:25.

world`renowned courses like those at Birmingham University, involved in

:52:26.:52:31.

the Saxon horde find, have been cut. These are not the best of times to

:52:32.:52:35.

be an archaeologist. Doctor Paul Avril teaches archaeology at of the

:52:36.:52:41.

University. I think politicians see heritage as something of a luxury

:52:42.:52:45.

which can be chopped off when they are looking to make cuts. Now seen

:52:46.:52:52.

more like a contaminant like asbestos removal, that archaeology

:52:53.:53:01.

and heritage is a negative impediment to that element that

:53:02.:53:05.

needs to be removed. You are losing people providing specialist advice

:53:06.:53:09.

to planning authorities. Others who keep a close watch on our history

:53:10.:53:16.

and Heritage believe is more and more local archaeologists lose their

:53:17.:53:19.

jobs, the greater the risk becomes that something precious will be

:53:20.:53:21.

destroyed because no one knew it was there. We should leave an ember of

:53:22.:53:26.

fire in the various departments so that when money is available again

:53:27.:53:33.

and we make an economic department, the fires can be giggled again.

:53:34.:53:37.

Archaeology is just one example. If it is cut down to nobody, the

:53:38.:53:42.

experience of a lifetime of dealing with a city which has the best

:53:43.:53:45.

medieval walls in the country apart from York, will be lost. Recent

:53:46.:53:51.

changes to planning laws now is the presumption in favour to sustainable

:53:52.:53:55.

development, with the issue of protecting the archaeology of the

:53:56.:53:59.

site somewhat less important. There are still those in Westminster who

:54:00.:54:03.

would like to see a more balanced approach to saving our historic

:54:04.:54:08.

treasures. Most archaeological excavation which is happening is

:54:09.:54:12.

paid for by developers who want to stick up a big supermarket or

:54:13.:54:16.

housing complex somewhere. A lot of the academic research that used to

:54:17.:54:19.

go on in the past is not happening and some of the county

:54:20.:54:23.

archaeologists, paid for by local councils, are being cut because they

:54:24.:54:32.

are going to put the money into child services or social services.

:54:33.:54:42.

He founded the all`party ocular `` archaeological group. He knows

:54:43.:54:45.

spending money there is not a priority but he said if we do not

:54:46.:54:50.

fight for it, we will regret it. If you do not protect the

:54:51.:54:52.

archaeological environment just as we need to protect our natural

:54:53.:54:55.

environment, once you have lost it, it is configured and that is a false

:54:56.:55:00.

economy. The benefit of `` it is gone for good and that is a fourth

:55:01.:55:03.

economy. The benefit of archaeological things will last

:55:04.:55:12.

years to come. There is a risk that a real gem that can be lost because

:55:13.:55:17.

the man who knows where the bodies are buried is history. Without the

:55:18.:55:22.

specialist advice, there is very little to stop developments

:55:23.:55:27.

occurring that potentially could have ended up with Richard III's

:55:28.:55:35.

bones on the workmen 's figure. Why now, times are hard in a world of

:55:36.:55:41.

archaeology but fortunately, this is one profession where taking the long

:55:42.:55:46.

view comes naturally. He might have two wait for the

:55:47.:55:52.

recognition he richly deserves in his cardboard crown! It is terribly

:55:53.:55:59.

easy to lose this. It is. I come from the antique trade, which was

:56:00.:56:03.

all about preserving things from the past. It is a difficult. I know how

:56:04.:56:09.

councils have to juggle, whether it is meals on wheels or children's

:56:10.:56:13.

services or archaeology. I think what we need to be doing is making

:56:14.:56:17.

sure we do not lose and we protect what we have got at the moment. If

:56:18.:56:21.

we have not got the money to do further research, we need to

:56:22.:56:27.

consolidate in universities. We are just coming into a new phase of

:56:28.:56:30.

funding for the European Union, and culture funding will be coming on

:56:31.:56:35.

stream. I would say keep an eye on that, local councils, it may be that

:56:36.:56:37.

you could bid for European money which will help you preserve the

:56:38.:56:42.

property have got. Do you think the Italians, the Greeks, they have the

:56:43.:56:47.

knowledge, they have kept the knowledge of their previous

:56:48.:56:49.

civilisations as well as the artefacts? Absolutely, and that is

:56:50.:56:53.

where we can share knowledge and get a better value by working together

:56:54.:56:59.

right across the European Union. That sounds like a good European

:57:00.:57:07.

project? I am a little bit cynical about this. When it comes down to

:57:08.:57:10.

it, we have got the planning minister in the coalition government

:57:11.:57:15.

saying he wants housing everywhere. He is probably the biggest threat to

:57:16.:57:17.

some of the archaeological sites that could ever exist. When we have

:57:18.:57:21.

a situation where even burial grounds are being dug up to provide

:57:22.:57:26.

sites for affordable housing, as is happening now, that puts into

:57:27.:57:32.

question... So you bring this back to too much development? If you

:57:33.:57:37.

like, is too much immigration, pressure on resources. There is this

:57:38.:57:42.

claim that local government has embarked on this efficiency drive

:57:43.:57:45.

and cut costs. One has to question, has that efficiency, as a result of

:57:46.:57:52.

just cutting services and making the money is add up rather than doing

:57:53.:57:54.

the job better? Now our regular round`up of the

:57:55.:57:58.

political week in the South in 60 seconds, and this week in a vain

:57:59.:58:02.

attempt to beat the clock ` it's gathering pace throughout.

:58:03.:58:14.

Cycling in Chichester got a gentle boost, a government grant to help

:58:15.:58:21.

bike racks and cycling confidence classes. Stepping up the horsepower,

:58:22.:58:24.

East Hampshire MP Damian Hines was called for tougher action to prevent

:58:25.:58:30.

fly grazing, horses put out on other people's land, by what the RSPCA

:58:31.:58:39.

called irresponsible owners. During the winter, they need supplementary

:58:40.:58:42.

feeding with extra hay. Travelling little faster, the nation's ports

:58:43.:58:48.

with more help with improving rail access according to the transport

:58:49.:58:51.

select committee. The backers of high`speed trains were urged to slow

:58:52.:58:54.

down by protesters at Parliament. The bill is the largest ever

:58:55.:58:58.

published it was full throttle for take`off at Oxford airport. A big

:58:59.:59:03.

jump in demand from private jets, including medical evacuation.

:59:04.:59:08.

Finally, down to earth with a bomb for MPs who now have two shave off

:59:09.:59:15.

their moustaches for Movember. A fine crop this year!

:59:16.:59:22.

No comment about that! It is all for cancer charities. The Autumn

:59:23.:59:26.

statement that we are looking ahead to two, what do you think is likely

:59:27.:59:33.

to be there? Any surprises or it has all been flagged up? I know what I

:59:34.:59:39.

want to see, more taken of the basic rate of income tax, taking up

:59:40.:59:46.

another charge of people. That is not helping the very poorest,

:59:47.:59:51.

raising the threshold. You have more money in your pocket. Not for the

:59:52.:59:56.

very poorest who have already been helped. We have already helped the

:59:57.:00:05.

very poorest. So it is now ?12,000? It is crazy people who are on

:00:06.:00:08.

minimum wage are being taxed, we have to take that out. David Cameron

:00:09.:00:12.

said it could not be done, we have showed him except how it could be

:00:13.:00:15.

done in government and we now need to take the next step. I am sure you

:00:16.:00:19.

would like to see some of the green stuff kept. Can you see that

:00:20.:00:23.

ditched? We would like to see it removed. We are talking ?6.5 billion

:00:24.:00:29.

by 2017, 18, if we just took out two elements, one of those could reduce

:00:30.:00:38.

household energy bills I a lot of money. That would go a long way to

:00:39.:00:45.

help. It is very short`term. You ask anybody about climate change, they

:00:46.:00:48.

say you have to start cutting back now. Any carbon dioxide will stay in

:00:49.:00:52.

the atmosphere for 100 years. It is a long`term view. Let's put it into

:00:53.:00:58.

context. The government has cancelled one of the major arrays.

:00:59.:01:05.

The wind farm. Precisely. A lot of that money goes to water the wind

:01:06.:01:09.

turbines and solar arrays. If we are not doing them, we don't pay for

:01:10.:01:13.

them. We'll see how it works out! Thank you to my guests. Don't

:01:14.:01:19.

forget, you can keep up`to`date with politics in our region by reading my

:01:20.:01:20.

blog. Now, back to Andrew. picked out. People thought he was

:01:21.:01:26.

touching on eugenics and things like that. That is all we have time for.

:01:27.:01:41.

Thank you. What rabbit has George Osborne got up his sleeve? And

:01:42.:01:47.

what's David Cameron up to in China? All questions for The Week Ahead. To

:01:48.:01:54.

help the panel led, we are joined by Kwasi Kwarteng, Tory MP. Welcome to

:01:55.:02:02.

the Sunday Politics. Why has the government been unable to move the

:02:03.:02:06.

agenda and to the broad economic recovery, and allowed the agenda to

:02:07.:02:10.

stay on Labour's ground of energy prices and living standards? Energy

:02:11.:02:15.

has been a big issue over the last few months but the autumn state and

:02:16.:02:19.

will be a wonderful opportunity to readdress where we are fighting the

:02:20.:02:23.

ground, the good economic news that we delivered. If you look at where

:02:24.:02:29.

Labour were earlier this year, people were saying they would they 5

:02:30.:02:33.

million people unemployed. They were saying that there should be a plan

:02:34.:02:43.

B. He is not in the Labour Party? Elements of the left were suggesting

:02:44.:02:47.

it. Peter Hain told me it would be up to 3 million people. Danny

:02:48.:02:52.

Blanchflower said it would be 5 million people. So we have got to

:02:53.:02:57.

get the economy back to the centre of the debate? Yes, the game we were

:02:58.:03:03.

playing was about the economy. That was the central fighting ground of

:03:04.:03:06.

the political debate. We were winning that battle. Labour have

:03:07.:03:11.

cleverly shifted it onto the cost of living. It is essential that the

:03:12.:03:16.

government, that George, talks about the economy. That has been its great

:03:17.:03:27.

success. I do not think this has been a week of admitting that Labour

:03:28.:03:30.

was right, plain cigarettes packaging, other issues. If you look

:03:31.:03:37.

at the big picture, where we are with the economy, we have the

:03:38.:03:43.

fastest growing economy in the G-7. Despite Labour's predictions, none

:03:44.:03:47.

of this has happened, none of the triple dip has happened. The British

:03:48.:03:53.

economy is on a good fitting. That is a good story for the government

:03:54.:03:59.

to bat on. You say that people have stopped talking about the economic

:04:00.:04:02.

recovery, but it is worse than that, people have stopped talking about

:04:03.:04:08.

the deficit? As long as people were talking about the deficit, the

:04:09.:04:11.

Tories were trusted. But people have forgotten about it. This country

:04:12.:04:17.

still spends ?100 billion more than it raises. Yes, I am of the view

:04:18.:04:23.

that the deficit, the national debt, is the biggest question facing

:04:24.:04:29.

this generation of politicians. You are right to suggest that the

:04:30.:04:32.

Conservative Party was strong on this. That head, not deficit, is not

:04:33.:04:39.

going to come down in the foreseeable future? It is rising.

:04:40.:04:44.

This is a test that George Osborne is not going to pass. We know what

:04:45.:04:48.

is coming in the Autumn Statement, it is lots of giveaways, paying for

:04:49.:04:53.

free school meals, paying for fuel duty subsidies. We are still talking

:04:54.:04:58.

about the cost of living, not changing it actively wider economy.

:04:59.:05:04.

There might be extra money for growth but it is not clear what will

:05:05.:05:11.

happen to that. If it is time for giveaways, let's speak about Labour.

:05:12.:05:15.

I have never been a fan of giveaways. Fiscal prudence is what

:05:16.:05:23.

our watchword should be. Look at the headlines. Each time, the deficit

:05:24.:05:27.

figures, the debt figures, were always worse than predicted. This

:05:28.:05:32.

year it will be significantly better. I think that is significant.

:05:33.:05:39.

Any kind of recovery is probably better than no recovery at all. When

:05:40.:05:44.

you look at this recovery, it is basically a consumer spending boom.

:05:45.:05:49.

Consumer spending is up, business investment is way down compared with

:05:50.:05:57.

2008, and exports, despite a 20% devaluation, our flat. Let's get one

:05:58.:06:02.

thing straight, it is a recovery. Any recovery is better than no

:06:03.:06:09.

recovery. Now we can have a debate about, technical debate about the

:06:10.:06:14.

elements of the recovery. It is not technical, it is a fact. There is

:06:15.:06:19.

evidence that there is optimism in terms of what are thinking...

:06:20.:06:26.

Optimism? If I am optimistic about the economy, I am more likely to

:06:27.:06:31.

spend money and invest in business. So far you have not managed that?

:06:32.:06:37.

Exports have not done well either? Exports are not a big section of the

:06:38.:06:42.

British economy. But of course, they are important. But given where we

:06:43.:06:48.

were at the end of last year, no economist was saying that we would

:06:49.:06:53.

be in this robust position today. That is true, in terms of the

:06:54.:07:00.

overall recovery. Now the PM loves to "bang the drum abroad for British

:07:01.:07:04.

business" and he's off to China this evening with a plane-load of British

:07:05.:07:07.

business leaders. And it's not the first time. Take a look at this.

:07:08.:07:38.

Well, you might not think exports unimportant, but clearly the Prime

:07:39.:08:03.

Minister and the Chancellor do. They are important, but they are not what

:08:04.:08:09.

is driving the growth at the moment. We used to talk about the need for

:08:10.:08:13.

export led recovery is, that is why the Prime Minister is going to

:08:14.:08:18.

China. Absolutely, and he's doing the right thing. Do we have any

:08:19.:08:23.

evidence that these tend of trips produce business? The main example

:08:24.:08:29.

so far is the right to trade the Chinese currency offshore. London

:08:30.:08:34.

has a kind of global primacy. London will be the offshore centre. Is that

:08:35.:08:40.

a good thing? I have no problem at all with this sort of policy. I do

:08:41.:08:44.

not think that Britain has been doing this enough compared with

:08:45.:08:48.

France and Germany in recent years. I am optimistic in the long term

:08:49.:08:54.

about this dish -- about British exports to China. China need machine

:08:55.:09:00.

tools and manufacturing products. In 20 years time, China will be buying

:09:01.:09:05.

professional groups, educational services, the things we excel at.

:09:06.:09:11.

All we need to do is consolidate our strengths, stand still and we will

:09:12.:09:16.

move forward. The worst thing we can do is reengineer the economy towards

:09:17.:09:19.

those services and away from something else. We have a lot of

:09:20.:09:26.

ground to make up, Helen? At one stage, it is no longer true, but at

:09:27.:09:30.

one stage you could say that we exported more to Ireland, a country

:09:31.:09:34.

of 4 million people, than we did to Russia, China, India, Brazil, all

:09:35.:09:43.

combined. I believe we form 1% of Chinese imports now. The problem is

:09:44.:09:49.

what you have to give up in exchange for that. It is a big problem for

:09:50.:09:55.

David Cameron's credibility that he has had to row back on his meeting

:09:56.:10:02.

with the Dalai llama. This trip, we have been in the deep freeze with

:10:03.:10:06.

China for a couple of years. This trip has come at a high cost. We

:10:07.:10:11.

have had to open up the City of London to Chinese banks without much

:10:12.:10:15.

scrutiny, we have had to move the date of the Autumn Statement, and

:10:16.:10:19.

there is no mention of human rights. It is awkward to deal with that, all

:10:20.:10:23.

in the name of getting up to where we were a few years ago. A month

:10:24.:10:31.

after strong anchor -- one month after Sri Lanka, where he apologised

:10:32.:10:35.

three human rights abuses, this is difficult to take. Do we have any

:10:36.:10:42.

idea what the Prime Minister hopes to do in China this time? I am not

:10:43.:10:46.

sure there is anything specific, but when you go to these countries,

:10:47.:10:51.

certainly in the Middle East China, they complain, why has the Prime

:10:52.:10:55.

Minister not come to see us? That is very important. High-level

:10:56.:11:00.

delegations from other countries go to these places because the addict

:11:01.:11:05.

-- because they are important export markets. You might look at the Prime

:11:06.:11:16.

Minister playing cricket over there, and wonder, what is that for? I do

:11:17.:11:21.

not mind the Prime Minister Rajoy cricket. This is a high visibility

:11:22.:11:26.

mission, chose that politicians in Britain care. You are part of the

:11:27.:11:32.

free enterprise group. It had all sorts of things on it like tax cuts

:11:33.:11:36.

for those on middle incomes or above the 40% bracket, tax cuts worth 16

:11:37.:11:44.

billion. You will get none of that on Thursday, we are agreed? No. But

:11:45.:11:50.

he does have two budgets between now and the election and if the fiscal

:11:51.:11:57.

position is using a little bit, he may have more leeway than it looked

:11:58.:12:00.

like a couple of months ago. Yes, from a free enter prise point of

:12:01.:12:07.

view, we have looked at the tax cuts that should be looked at. The 40p

:12:08.:12:12.

rate comes in at quite a low level for people who, in the south-east,

:12:13.:12:18.

do not feel particularly wealthy. They are spending a lot of money on

:12:19.:12:24.

commuting, energy bills. The Chancellor has been very open about

:12:25.:12:28.

championing this. He says that the 40p rate will kick in at a slightly

:12:29.:12:33.

higher rate. Labour had a bad summer and the opinion polls seem to be

:12:34.:12:38.

narrowing. Then they had a good hearty conference season. The best.

:12:39.:12:43.

Has the Labour lead solidified or increased the little, maybe up to

:12:44.:12:48.

eight points? If it is a good Autumn Statement, or the Tories start to

:12:49.:12:52.

narrow that lead by the end of the year? If they go into 2014 trailing

:12:53.:12:59.

by single digits, they cannot complain too much. That gives them

:13:00.:13:03.

18 months to chip away at Labour's lead. But do they do that chipping

:13:04.:13:09.

away by eight bidding Labour or do they let time take its course and

:13:10.:13:13.

let the economic recovery continue, maybe business investment joins

:13:14.:13:18.

consumer spending as a source of that recovery, and a year from now,

:13:19.:13:21.

household disposable income begins to rise? That is a better hope than

:13:22.:13:30.

engaging in a bidding war. Be assured, they will be highly

:13:31.:13:32.

political budgets. That's all for today. The Daily Politics is on BBC

:13:33.:13:36.

Two at midday all this week, except on Thursday when we'll start at

:13:37.:13:39.

10:45 to bring you live coverage and analysis of the Chancellor's Autumn

:13:40.:13:41.

Statement in a Daily Politics special for BBC Two and the BBC News

:13:42.:13:45.

Channel. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:46.:13:48.

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