12/03/2017 Sunday Politics South


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12/03/2017

Andrew Neil and Peter Henley with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Andrew discusses the Brexit bill with UKIP's Nigel Farage and Conservative MP Anna Soubry.


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:33.:00:38.

David Davis tells MPs to leave the Brexit bill untouched,

:00:39.:00:42.

ahead of a week which could see Britain begin the process

:00:43.:00:45.

We'll talk to a Tory rebel and Ukip's Nigel Farage.

:00:46.:00:50.

Phillip Hammond's first budget hit the rocks thanks to a tax rise

:00:51.:00:53.

But how should we tax those who work for themselves?

:00:54.:01:01.

And remember Donald Trump's claim that Barack Obama had ordered

:01:02.:01:03.

We'll talk to the former Tory MP who set the whole story rolling.

:01:04.:01:14.

In the south, should the rights of EU nationals living in the UK be

:01:15.:01:19.

guaranteed? We meet those who want And joining me for all of that,

:01:20.:01:29.

three self-employed journalists who definitely don't

:01:30.:01:31.

deserve a tax break. It's Steve Richards,

:01:32.:01:35.

Julia Hartley-Brewer They'll be tweeting throughout

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the programme with all the carefree abandon of Katie Hopkins before

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a libel trial. BBC lawyers have suddenly got

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nervous! So first today, the government

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is gearing up to trigger Article 50, perhaps in the next 48 hours,

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and start negotiating Britain's Much has been written

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about the prospect of the Commons getting a "meaningful vote"

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on the deal Britain negotiates. Brexit Secretary David Davis

:02:00.:02:02.

was on the Andrew Marr programme earlier this morning

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and he was asked what happens Well, that is what is called

:02:05.:02:06.

the most favoured nation status deal There we go out, as it

:02:07.:02:17.

were, on WTO rules. That is why of course we do

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the contingency planning, to make The British people decided

:02:22.:02:24.

on June the 23rd last year My job, and the job

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of the government, is to make the terms on which that happens

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as beneficial as possible. There we have it, clearly, either

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Parliament votes for the deal when it is done or it out on World Trade

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Organisation rules. That's what the government means by a meaningful

:02:58.:02:58.

vote. I think we get over obsessed about

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whether there will be a legal right for Parliament to have a vote. If

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there is no deal or a bad deal, I think it would be politically

:03:10.:03:12.

impossible for the government to reject Parliament's desire for a

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vote because the atmosphere of politics will be completely

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different by then. I take David Davies seriously. Within Whitehall

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he has acquired a reputation as being the most conscientious and

:03:24.:03:27.

details sadly... And well briefed. Absolutely and well travelled in

:03:28.:03:31.

terms of European capitals of the three Brexit ministers. It is quite

:03:32.:03:34.

telling he said what he did and it is quite telling that within

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cabinet, two weeks ago he was floating the idea of no deal at all.

:03:38.:03:43.

Being if not the central estimate than a completely plausible

:03:44.:03:46.

eventuality. It is interesting. I would suggest the prospect of no

:03:47.:03:52.

deal is moving up the agenda. It is still less likely than more likely

:03:53.:03:56.

to happen. But it's no longer a kind of long tail way out there in the

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distance. Planning for no deal is the same as having contents

:04:01.:04:03.

insurance or travel insurance, plan for the worse case scenarios are

:04:04.:04:05.

prepared it happens. Even the worst case scenario, it's not that bad.

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Think of the Jeep 20, apart from the EU, four members of the G20

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economies are successful members of the EU. The rest aren't and don't

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have trade deals but somehow these countries are prospering. They are

:04:21.:04:24.

growing at a higher rate. You are not frightened? Not remotely. We are

:04:25.:04:28.

obsessed with what we get from the EU and the key thing we get from

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leaving the EU is not the deal but the other deals we can finally make

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with other trading partners. They have higher growth than virtually

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every other EU country apart from Germany. It is sensible as a

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negotiating position for the government to say if there is no

:04:42.:04:46.

deal, we will accept there is no deal. We're not frightened of no

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deal. It was clear from what David Davies was saying that there will be

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a vote in parliament at the end of the process but there won't be a

:04:55.:04:58.

third option to send the government back to try to get a better deal. It

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is either the deal or we leave without a deal. In reality, that

:05:04.:05:08.

third option will be there. We don't know yet whether there will be a

:05:09.:05:11.

majority for the deal if they get one. What we do know now is that

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there isn't a majority in the Commons for no deal. Labour MPs are

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absolutely clear that no deal is worth then a bad deal. I've heard

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enough Tory MPs say the same thing. But they wouldn't get no deal

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through. When it comes to this vote, if whatever deal is rejected, there

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will then be, one way or another, the third option raised of go back

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again. But who gets to decide what is a bad deal? The British people

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will have a different idea than the two thirds of the Remain supporting

:05:48.:05:50.

MPs in the Commons. In terms of the vote, the Commons. Surely, if the

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Commons, which is what matters here, if the Commons were to vote against

:05:58.:06:03.

the deal as negotiated by the government, surely that would

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trigger a general election? If the government had recommended the deal,

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surely the government would then, if it still felt strongly about the

:06:12.:06:14.

deal, if the other 27 had said, we're not negotiating, extending it,

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it would in effect become a second referendum on the deal. In effect it

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would be a no-confidence vote in the government. You've got to assume

:06:25.:06:27.

that unless something massively changes in the opposition before

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then, the government would feel fairly confident about a general

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election on those terms. Unless the deal is hideously bad and obviously

:06:36.:06:39.

basso every vote in the country... The prior minister said if it is

:06:40.:06:42.

that bad she would have rather no deal. So that eventuality arrives.

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-- the Prime Minister has said. Not a second referendum general election

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in two years' time. Don't put any holidays for! LAUGHTER

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-- don't look any. So the Brexit bill looks likely

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to clear Parliament this week. That depends on the number

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of Conservative MPs who are prepared to vote against their government

:07:01.:07:04.

on two key issues. Theresa May could be

:07:05.:07:06.

in negotiations with our European partners within days,

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but there may be some wheeler-dealings she has to do

:07:11.:07:12.

with her own MPs, too. Cast your mind back

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to the beginning of month. The bill to trigger Article

:07:15.:07:18.

50 passed comfortably But three Conservatives voted

:07:19.:07:20.

for Labour's amendments to ensure the rights of EU citizens already

:07:21.:07:29.

in the UK. Seven Tory MPs voted to force

:07:30.:07:33.

the government to give Parliament a say on the deal struck with the EU

:07:34.:07:36.

before it's finalised. But remember those numbers,

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they're important. On the issue of a meaningful vote

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on a deal, I'm told there might have been more rebels had it not been

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for this assurance from I can confirm that the government

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will bring forward a motion on the final agreement to be

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approved by both Houses And we expect, and intend,

:07:58.:07:59.

that this will happen before the European Parliament debates

:08:00.:08:04.

and votes on the final agreement. When the government

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was criticised for reeling back from when and what it would offer

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a vote on. The bill then moved into the Lords,

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where peers passed it And the second, that Parliament be

:08:21.:08:22.

given a meaningful vote on the terms of the deal or indeed a vote

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in the event of there The so-called Brexit bill

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will return to Commons Ministers insist that both

:08:34.:08:37.

amendments would weaken the government's negotiating hand

:08:38.:08:41.

and are seeking to overturn them. But, as ever, politics

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is a numbers game. Theresa May has a working

:08:45.:08:50.

majority of 17. On Brexit, though,

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it's probably higher. At least six Labour MPs

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generally vote with Plus, eight DUP MPs,

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two from the Ulster Unionist party If all Conservatives vote

:08:59.:09:02.

with the government as well, Therefore, 26 Conservative rebels

:09:03.:09:08.

are needed for the government to be So, are there rough waters

:09:09.:09:14.

ahead for Theresa May? What numbers are we looking at,

:09:15.:09:21.

in terms of a potential rebellion? I think we're looking at a large

:09:22.:09:24.

number of people who are interested This building is a really

:09:25.:09:27.

important building. It's symbolic of a huge

:09:28.:09:29.

amount of history. And for it not to be involved

:09:30.:09:31.

in this momentous time would, But he says a clear verbal statement

:09:32.:09:35.

from the government on a meaningful vote on any deal would be enough

:09:36.:09:42.

to get most Tory MPs onside. It was already said

:09:43.:09:48.

about David Jones. It's slightly unravelled

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a little bit during I think this is an opportunity

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to really get that clarity through so that we can all vote

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for Article 50 and get We've have spoken to several Tory

:09:58.:10:00.

MPs who say they are minded to vote One said the situation

:10:01.:10:04.

was sad and depressing. The other said that the whips must

:10:05.:10:08.

be worried because they don't A minister told me Downing Street

:10:09.:10:11.

was looking again at the possibility of offering a vote in the event

:10:12.:10:18.

of no deal being reached. But that its position

:10:19.:10:22.

was unlikely to change. And, anyway, government sources have

:10:23.:10:24.

told the Sunday Politics they're not That those Tory MPs who didn't back

:10:25.:10:27.

either amendment the first time round would look silly

:10:28.:10:34.

if they did, this time. It would have to be a pretty hefty

:10:35.:10:37.

lot of people changing their minds about things that have already been

:10:38.:10:40.

discussed in quite a lot of detail, last time it was in the Commons,

:10:41.:10:44.

for things to be reversed this time. There's no doubt that a number

:10:45.:10:48.

of Tory MPs are very concerned. Labour are pessimistic

:10:49.:10:51.

about the chances of enough Tory rebels backing either

:10:52.:10:53.

of the amendments in the Commons. The important thing, I think,

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is to focus on the fact that this is the last chance

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to have a say on this. If they're going to vote with us,

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Monday is the time to do it. Assuming the bill does pass

:11:03.:11:06.

the Commons unamended, it will go back to the Lord's

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on Monday night where Labour peers have already indicated

:11:09.:11:11.

they won't block it again. It means that the Brexit bill

:11:12.:11:15.

would become law and Theresa May would be free to trigger Article

:11:16.:11:18.

50 within days. Her own deadline was

:11:19.:11:22.

the end of this month. But one minister told me there

:11:23.:11:24.

were advantages to doing it early. We're joined now from Nottingham

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by the Conservative MP Anna Soubry. She's previously voted against

:11:31.:11:33.

the government on the question of whether Parliament should

:11:34.:11:35.

have a final say over the EU deal. Anna Soubry, I think it was clear

:11:36.:11:45.

this morning from David Davies that what he means by meaningful vote is

:11:46.:11:49.

not what you mean by a meaningful vote. He thinks the choice for

:11:50.:11:52.

Parliament would be to either vote for the deal and if Parliament

:11:53.:11:59.

doesn't, we leave on World Trade Organisation rules, on a bare-bones

:12:00.:12:03.

structure. In the end, will he accept that in the Commons tomorrow?

:12:04.:12:07.

No, because my problem and I don't think it is a problem, but my

:12:08.:12:12.

problem, the government's problem is that what I want is then to answer

:12:13.:12:15.

this question. What happens in the event of their not being any deal?

:12:16.:12:20.

David Davies made it very clear that in the event of there being no deal,

:12:21.:12:26.

Parliament would have no say. It means through your elected

:12:27.:12:28.

representatives, the people of this country would have no say on what

:12:29.:12:32.

happens if the government doesn't get a deal. I think the request that

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Parliament should have a say on Parliamentary sovereignty, is

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perfectly reasonable. That is what I want David to say. If he says that,

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I won't be rebelling. If he does... They have refused to say that.

:12:48.:12:52.

Sorry. If he continues to say what he said the BBC this morning, which

:12:53.:12:56.

means that the vote will be either to accept the as negotiated or to

:12:57.:13:04.

leave on WTO rules, will you rebel on that question but no, no, sorry,

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if there's a deal, Parliament will have a say. So that's fine. And we

:13:09.:13:12.

will see what the deal is and we will look at the options two years

:13:13.:13:16.

down the road. When who knows what'll happen in our economy and

:13:17.:13:20.

world economy. That is one matter which I am content on. The Prime

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Minister, a woman of her word has said that in the event of a deal,

:13:25.:13:27.

Parliament will vote on any deal. I don't difficulty. To clarify, I will

:13:28.:13:34.

come onto that. These are important matters. I want to clarify, not

:13:35.:13:38.

argue with you. You are content that if there is a deal, we will come

:13:39.:13:41.

under no deal in a second, but if there is a deal, you are content

:13:42.:13:45.

with the choice of being able to vote for that deal or leaving on WTO

:13:46.:13:51.

terms? No, you're speculating as to what might happen in two years'

:13:52.:13:57.

time. What the options might be. Personally I find it inconceivable

:13:58.:14:00.

that the government will come back with a rubbish deal. They will

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either come back with a good deal, which I won't have a problem with or

:14:04.:14:07.

they will come back with no deal. To speculate about coming back with a

:14:08.:14:12.

deal, there is a variety of options. I understand that that is what the

:14:13.:14:15.

Lord amendments are about. They are about a vote at the end of the

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process. Do forgive me, the Lords amendment is not the same that I've

:14:20.:14:26.

voted for in Parliament. What we call the Chris Leslie amendment,

:14:27.:14:29.

which was talking about whatever the agreement is, whatever happens at

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the end of the negotiations, Parliament will have a vote.

:14:32.:14:35.

Parliament will have a say. The Lords amendment is a bit more

:14:36.:14:39.

technical. It is the principle of no deal that is agitating us. Let's

:14:40.:14:44.

clarify on this. They are complicated matters. What do you

:14:45.:14:48.

want the government to say? What do you want David Davis to say tomorrow

:14:49.:14:52.

on what should the Parliamentary process should be if there is no

:14:53.:14:56.

deal? Quite. I want a commitment from him that in the event of no

:14:57.:15:01.

deal, it will come into Parliament and Parliament will determine what

:15:02.:15:09.

happens next. It could be that in the event of no deal, the best thing

:15:10.:15:12.

is for us to jump off the cliff into WTO tariff is. I find it unlikely

:15:13.:15:15.

but that might be the reality. There might be other alternatives. Most

:15:16.:15:20.

importantly, including saying to the government, go back, carry on. The

:15:21.:15:24.

question that everybody has to ask is, why won't the government give

:15:25.:15:29.

My fear is what this is about is asked deliberately, not the Prime

:15:30.:15:38.

Minister, but others deliberately ensuring we have no deal and no deal

:15:39.:15:42.

pretty soon and in that event, we jumped off the cliff onto WTO

:15:43.:15:47.

tariffs and nobody in this country and the people of this country do

:15:48.:15:51.

not have a say. My constituents did not vote for hard Brexit.

:15:52.:15:58.

You do not want the government to have the ability if there is no deal

:15:59.:16:03.

to automatically fall back on the WTO rules? Quite. It is as simple as

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that. We are now speculating about what will happen in two years. I

:16:09.:16:12.

want to find out what happens tomorrow. What will you do if you

:16:13.:16:19.

don't get that assurance? I will either abstain, or I will vote to

:16:20.:16:24.

keep this amendment within the Bill. I will either vote against my

:16:25.:16:28.

government, which I do not do likely, I have never voted against

:16:29.:16:32.

my government until the Chris Leslie clause when the Bill was going

:16:33.:16:36.

through, or I will abstain, which has pretty much the same effect

:16:37.:16:40.

because it comes into the Commons with both amendments so you have

:16:41.:16:44.

positively to vote to take the map. Can you give us an idea of how many

:16:45.:16:48.

like-minded conservative colleagues there are. I genuinely do not know.

:16:49.:16:56.

You must talk to each other. I do not talk to every member of my

:16:57.:17:01.

party. You know people who are like-minded. I do. I am not doing

:17:02.:17:09.

numbers games. I know you want that but I genuinely do not know the

:17:10.:17:14.

figure. I think this is an uncomfortable truth. People have to

:17:15.:17:21.

understand what has happened in our country, two particular newspapers,

:17:22.:17:23.

creating an atmosphere and setting an agenda and I think many people

:17:24.:17:27.

are rather concerned, some frightened, to put their head over

:17:28.:17:33.

the parapet. There are many millions of people who feel totally excluded

:17:34.:17:39.

from this process. Many of them voted to remain. And they have lost

:17:40.:17:43.

their voice. We have covered the ground I wanted to.

:17:44.:17:44.

We're joined now by the Ukip MEP and former leader Nigel Farage.

:17:45.:17:51.

Article 50 triggered, we are leaving the EU, the single market and the

:17:52.:17:58.

customs union. What is left you to complain about? All of that will

:17:59.:18:03.

happen and hopefully we will get the triggered this week which is good

:18:04.:18:08.

news. What worries me a little I'm not sure the government recognises

:18:09.:18:12.

how strong their handers. At the summit in Brussels, the word in the

:18:13.:18:15.

corridors is that we are prepared to give away fishing waters as a

:18:16.:18:18.

bargaining chip and the worry is what deal we get. Are we leaving,

:18:19.:18:25.

yes I am pleased about that. You are under relevant voice in the deal

:18:26.:18:28.

because the deal will be voted on in Parliament and you have one MP. You

:18:29.:18:33.

are missing the point, the real vote in parliament is not in London but

:18:34.:18:37.

Strasbourg. This is perhaps the biggest obstacle the British

:18:38.:18:41.

Government faces. Not what happens in the Commons that the end of the

:18:42.:18:45.

two years, the European Parliament could veto the deal. What that means

:18:46.:18:51.

is people need to adopt a different approach. We do not need to be

:18:52.:18:54.

lobbying in the corridors of Brussels to get a good deal, we need

:18:55.:18:59.

is a country to be out there talking to the German car workers and

:19:00.:19:03.

Belgian chocolate makers, putting as much pressure as we can on

:19:04.:19:08.

politicians from across Europe to come to a sensible arrangement. It

:19:09.:19:11.

is in their interests more than ours. In what way is the vision of

:19:12.:19:17.

Brexit set out by David Davis any different from your own? I am

:19:18.:19:24.

delighted there are people now adopting the position I argued for

:19:25.:19:30.

many years. Good. But now... Like Douglas Carswell, he said he found

:19:31.:19:35.

David Davis' performers this morning reassuring. It is. And just as when

:19:36.:19:42.

Theresa May was Home Secretary every performance she gave was hugely

:19:43.:19:46.

reassuring. She was seen to be a heroine after her conference

:19:47.:19:49.

speeches and then did not deliver. I am concerned that even before we

:19:50.:19:57.

start we are making concessions. You described in the EU's divorce bill

:19:58.:20:01.

demands, 60 billion euros is floated around. You said it is laughable and

:20:02.:20:08.

I understand that. Do you maintain that we will not have to pay a penny

:20:09.:20:12.

to leave? It is nine months since we voted exit and assuming the trigger

:20:13.:20:21.

of Article 50, we would have paid 30 billion in since we had a vote. We

:20:22.:20:26.

are still members. But honestly, I do not think there is an appetite

:20:27.:20:29.

for us to pay a massive divorce Bill. There are assets also. Not a

:20:30.:20:37.

penny? There will be some ongoing commitments, but the numbers talked

:20:38.:20:42.

about our 50, ?60 billion, they are frankly laughable. I am trying to

:20:43.:20:48.

find out if you are prepared to accept some kind of exit cost, it

:20:49.:20:53.

may be nowhere near 60 billion. We have to do a net agreement, the

:20:54.:20:57.

government briefed about our share of the European Union investment

:20:58.:21:04.

bank. Would you accept a transitional arrangement, deal,

:21:05.:21:07.

five, ten billion, as part of the divorce settlement? We are painted

:21:08.:21:12.

net ?30 million every single day at the moment, ?10 billion plus every

:21:13.:21:18.

year. That is just our contribution. We are going to make a massive

:21:19.:21:22.

saving on this. What do you make of what Anna Soubry said, that if there

:21:23.:21:28.

is no deal, and it is being talked about more. Maybe the government

:21:29.:21:33.

managing expectations. There is an expectation we will have a deal, but

:21:34.:21:39.

if there is no deal, that the government cannot just go to WTO

:21:40.:21:43.

rules, but it has to have a vote in parliament? By the time we get to

:21:44.:21:47.

that there will be a general election coming down the tracks and

:21:48.:21:53.

I suspect that if at the end of the two-year process there is no deal

:21:54.:21:57.

and by the way, no deal is a lot better for the nation than where we

:21:58.:22:01.

currently are, because we freed of regulations and able to make our own

:22:02.:22:06.

deals in the world. I think what would happen, and if Parliament said

:22:07.:22:13.

it did not back, at the end of the negotiation a general election would

:22:14.:22:18.

happen quickly. According to reports this morning, one of your most

:22:19.:22:24.

senior aides has passed a dossier to police claiming Tories committed

:22:25.:22:28.

electoral fraud in Thanet South, the seat contested in the election. What

:22:29.:22:33.

evidence to you have? I read that in the newspapers as you have. I am not

:22:34.:22:38.

going to comment on it. Will you not aware of the contents of the

:22:39.:22:44.

dossier? I am not aware of the dossier. He was your election

:22:45.:22:48.

strategists. I am dubious as to whether this dossier exists at all.

:22:49.:22:53.

Perhaps the newspapers have got this wrong. Concerns about the

:22:54.:23:00.

downloading of data the took place in that constituency, there are.

:23:01.:23:09.

Allegedly, he has refuted it, was it done by your MP to give information

:23:10.:23:14.

to the Tories, do you have evidence about? We have evidence Mr Carswell

:23:15.:23:19.

downloaded information, we have no evidence what he did with it. It is

:23:20.:23:26.

not just your aide who has been making allegations against the

:23:27.:23:31.

Conservatives in Thanet South and other seats, if the evidence was to

:23:32.:23:37.

be substantial, and if it was to result in another by-election being

:23:38.:23:43.

called an Thanet South had to be fought again, would you be the Ukip

:23:44.:23:47.

candidate? I probably would. You probably would? Yes. Just probably?

:23:48.:23:51.

Just probably. It would be your eighth attempt. Winning seats in

:23:52.:23:57.

parliament under first past the post is not the only way to change

:23:58.:24:01.

politics in Britain and I would like to think I proved that. Let's go

:24:02.:24:07.

back to Anna Soubry. The implication of what we were saying on the panel

:24:08.:24:11.

at the start of the show and what Nigel Farage was saying there would

:24:12.:24:17.

be that if at the end of the process whatever the vote, if the government

:24:18.:24:21.

were to lose it, it would provoke a general election properly. I think

:24:22.:24:25.

that would be right. Let's get real. The government is not going to come

:24:26.:24:28.

to Parliament with anything other than something it believes is a good

:24:29.:24:37.

deal and if it rejected it, would be unlikely, there would be a de facto

:24:38.:24:41.

vote of no confidence and it would be within the fixed term Parliaments

:24:42.:24:46.

act and that be it. The problem is, more likely, because of the story

:24:47.:24:52.

put up about the 50 billion, 60 billion and you look at the way

:24:53.:24:56.

things are flagged up that both the Prime Minister and Boris Johnson

:24:57.:24:59.

saying, we should be asking them for money back, I think the big fear and

:25:00.:25:03.

the fear I have is we will be crashing out in six months. You

:25:04.:25:09.

think we could leave as quickly as six months. Explain that. I think

:25:10.:25:14.

they will stoke up the demand from the EU for 50, 60 billion back and

:25:15.:25:20.

my real concern is that within six months, where we're not making much

:25:21.:25:25.

progress, maybe nine months, and people are getting increasingly fed

:25:26.:25:29.

up with the EU because they are told it wants unreasonable demands, and

:25:30.:25:34.

then the crash. I think what is happening is the government is

:25:35.:25:37.

putting in place scaffolding at the bottom of the cliff to break our

:25:38.:25:42.

fall when we come to fall off that cliff and I think many in government

:25:43.:25:48.

are preparing not for a two-year process, but six, to nine months,

:25:49.:25:53.

off the cliff, out we go. That is my fear. That is interesting. I have

:25:54.:25:58.

not heard that express before by someone in your position. I suspect

:25:59.:26:03.

you have made Nigel Farage's date. It is a lovely thought. I would say

:26:04.:26:10.

to Anna Soubry she is out of date with this. 40 years ago there was a

:26:11.:26:14.

good argument for joining the common market because tariffs around the

:26:15.:26:19.

world was so high. That has changed with the World Trade Organisation.

:26:20.:26:24.

We are leaving the EU and rejoining a great big world and it is

:26:25.:26:33.

exciting. She was giving an interesting perspective on what

:26:34.:26:35.

could happen in nine months rather than two years. I thank you both.

:26:36.:26:39.

It was Philip Hammond's first budget on Wednesday -

:26:40.:26:42.

billed as a steady-as-she-goes affair, but turned out to cause

:26:43.:26:48.

uproar after the Chancellor appeared to contradict a Tory manifesto

:26:49.:26:50.

commitment with an increase in national insurance contributions.

:26:51.:26:52.

The aim was to address what some see as an imbalance in the tax system,

:26:53.:27:01.

where employees pay more National Insurance

:27:02.:27:03.

The controversy centres on increasing the so-called class 4

:27:04.:27:06.

rate for the self-employed who make a profit of more than ?8,060 a year.

:27:07.:27:09.

It will go up in stages from 9% to 11% in 2019.

:27:10.:27:16.

The changes mean that over one and a half million will pay

:27:17.:27:20.

on average ?240 a year more in contributions.

:27:21.:27:24.

Some Conservative MPs were unhappy, with even the Wales Minister saying:

:27:25.:27:30.

"I will apologise to every voter in Wales that read

:27:31.:27:33.

the Conservative manifesto in the 2015 election."

:27:34.:27:34.

The Sun labelled Philip Hammond "spite van man".

:27:35.:27:40.

The Daily Mail called the budget "no laughing matter".

:27:41.:27:42.

By Thursday, Theresa May said the government

:27:43.:27:45.

One of the first things I did as Prime Minister was to commission

:27:46.:27:51.

Matthew Taylor to review the rights and protections that were available

:27:52.:27:55.

to self-employed workers and whether they should be enhanced.

:27:56.:27:58.

People will be able to look at the government paper

:27:59.:28:00.

when we produce it, showing all our changes, and take

:28:01.:28:03.

And, of course, the Chancellor will be speaking, as will his ministers,

:28:04.:28:08.

to MPs, businesspeople and others to listen to the concerns.

:28:09.:28:12.

Well, the man you heard mentioned there, Matthew Taylor,

:28:13.:28:14.

has the job of producing a report into the future

:28:15.:28:17.

Welcome. The Chancellor has decided the self-employed should pay almost

:28:18.:28:30.

the same in National Insurance, not the same but almost, as the employed

:28:31.:28:34.

will stop what is left of your commission? The commission has a

:28:35.:28:39.

broader frame of reference and we are interested in the quality of

:28:40.:28:44.

work in the economy at the heart of what I hope will be proposing is a

:28:45.:28:49.

set of shifts that will improve the quality of that work so we have an

:28:50.:28:54.

economy where all work is fair and decent and all jobs give people

:28:55.:28:57.

scope for development and fulfilment. The issue of taxes a

:28:58.:29:04.

small part. You will cover that? We will, because the tax system and

:29:05.:29:09.

employment regulation system drive particular behaviours in our labour

:29:10.:29:14.

market. You approve I think of the general direction of this policy of

:29:15.:29:18.

raising National Insurance on the self-employed. Taxing them in return

:29:19.:29:24.

perhaps for more state benefits. Why are so many others on the left

:29:25.:29:29.

against it from Tim Farron to John McDonnell? Tax rises are unpopular

:29:30.:29:33.

and it is the role of the opposition parties to make capital from

:29:34.:29:38.

unpopular tax rises. I think as tax rises go this is broadly

:29:39.:29:42.

progressive. There are self-employed people on low incomes and they will

:29:43.:29:46.

be better off. It is economic league rational because the reason for the

:29:47.:29:50.

difference in National Insurance -- economically. It was to do with

:29:51.:29:55.

state entitlements. The government is consulting about paid parental

:29:56.:29:59.

leave. A series of governments have not been good about thinking about

:30:00.:30:04.

medium sustainability of the tax base. Self-employment is growing.

:30:05.:30:09.

But it is eroding the tax base. It is important to address those

:30:10.:30:14.

issues. A number of think tanks have said this is a progressive move.

:30:15.:30:19.

Yet, a number of left-wing politicians have been against it.

:30:20.:30:25.

And a number of Tories have said this is a progressive move and not a

:30:26.:30:30.

Tory government move, the balance of you will pay more tax, but you will

:30:31.:30:35.

get more state benefits is not a Tory approach to things. That a Tory

:30:36.:30:39.

approach will be you will pay less tax but entitled to fewer benefits

:30:40.:30:41.

as well. I preferred in and policies to

:30:42.:30:52.

politics -- I prefer policies. When people look at the policy and when

:30:53.:30:55.

they look the fact that there is no real historical basis for that big

:30:56.:30:58.

national insurance differential, they see it is a sensible policy. I

:30:59.:31:02.

don't have to deal with the politics. There has been a huge

:31:03.:31:06.

growth in self-employment from the turn of the millennium. It's been

:31:07.:31:09.

strongest amongst older workers, women part-timers.

:31:10.:31:14.

Do you have any idea, do you have the data in your commission that

:31:15.:31:20.

could tell us how many are taking self-employment because they like

:31:21.:31:23.

the flexibility and they like the tax advantages that come with it,

:31:24.:31:29.

too, or they are being forced into it by employers who don't want the

:31:30.:31:33.

extra costs of employment? Do we know the difference? We do, broadly.

:31:34.:31:38.

Most surveys on self-employment and flexible forms of employment suggest

:31:39.:31:43.

about two thirds to three quarters enjoy it, they like the flexibility,

:31:44.:31:48.

they like the autonomy and about a third to one quarter are less happy.

:31:49.:31:52.

That tends to be because they would like to have a full-time permanent

:31:53.:31:55.

job. It is not necessary that they don't enjoy what they are doing,

:31:56.:31:58.

they would like to do other things. And some of the protections that

:31:59.:32:02.

come with it? Yes. There are some people who are forced into southern

:32:03.:32:07.

employees by high-risk but also some people feel like they can't get a

:32:08.:32:11.

proper job as it were. -- self-employment by people who hire

:32:12.:32:15.

them. It is on the narrow matter of tax revenues but if you are employed

:32:16.:32:22.

on ?32,000 the state will take over ?6,000 in national insurance

:32:23.:32:24.

contributions, that is quite chunky. If you are self-employed it is

:32:25.:32:30.

?2300. But the big difference between those figures isn't what the

:32:31.:32:34.

employee is paying, it's the employer's contributions up to

:32:35.:32:40.

almost 14%, and cupped for as much as you are paid. What do you do

:32:41.:32:46.

about employers' contributions for the self employed? -- it is uncapped

:32:47.:32:52.

for as much. What I recommend is that we should probably move from

:32:53.:32:56.

taxing employment to taxing labour. We should probably have a more level

:32:57.:33:01.

playing field so it doesn't really matter... Explained that I thought

:33:02.:33:06.

it was the same thing. If you are a self-employed gardener, you are a

:33:07.:33:08.

different tax regime to a gardener who works for a gardening firm. On

:33:09.:33:13.

the individual side and on the firm side. As we see new business models,

:33:14.:33:21.

so-called gig working, partly with technology, we need a more level

:33:22.:33:24.

playing field saying that we're taxing people's work, not the form

:33:25.:33:30.

in which they deliver that. That is part of the reason we have seen the

:33:31.:33:33.

growth of particular business models. They are innovative and

:33:34.:33:37.

creative and partly driven by the fact that if you can describe

:33:38.:33:41.

yourself as self-employed there are tax advantages. Coming out in June?

:33:42.:33:46.

Will you come back and talk to us? Yes.

:33:47.:33:48.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:33:49.:33:53.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll be talking to the former

:33:54.:33:57.

Tory MP who was the root of Donald Trump's allegation

:33:58.:34:12.

On today's show: Should they stay or should they go?

:34:13.:34:17.

The EU nationals who are wrestling about whether to apply for permanent

:34:18.:34:20.

residency now in case the Brexit negotiations don't guarantee

:34:21.:34:24.

First, let's meet the two politicians here for the 20 minutes.

:34:25.:34:31.

Conor Burns is the Conservative MP for Bournemouth West.

:34:32.:34:34.

Alan Whitehead is the Labour MP for Southampton Test.

:34:35.:34:39.

The budget wasn't even 48 hours old before the Prime Minister

:34:40.:34:51.

was announcing a postponement of what turned out to be a rather

:34:52.:34:54.

Increasing the national insurance contributions for self-employed.

:34:55.:34:57.

This is just another pasty tax, isn't it?

:34:58.:34:59.

It's a proper approach by the Chancellor that is recognising

:35:00.:35:05.

the changes that have been made to other entitlements

:35:06.:35:07.

There was always a quite large difference between what employed

:35:08.:35:15.

and self-employed people paid in a national insurance because of

:35:16.:35:17.

the difference they received in pension entitlement.

:35:18.:35:23.

Of course, the government has moved to guarantee pension universally

:35:24.:35:26.

to employed and self-employed and this I think is an adjustment

:35:27.:35:28.

that reflects the changing benefits received.

:35:29.:35:37.

But surely it is the manifesto commitment not to increase national

:35:38.:35:46.

insurance that has caused a furore and the promise

:35:47.:35:49.

Repeated in the manifesto, repeated by David Cameron,

:35:50.:35:52.

we won't increase national insurance, and know it is going up.

:35:53.:35:54.

We were very clear that we legislate for the commitments

:35:55.:35:57.

made and that we did after the last general election.

:35:58.:36:02.

I sat on the Finance Bill and there was not a word when we legislated

:36:03.:36:05.

to guarantee the commitments on national insurance,

:36:06.:36:07.

on class of national insurance, that was on that.

:36:08.:36:09.

The manifesto commitment was not for one class,

:36:10.:36:11.

it was for national insurance, and it is going up.

:36:12.:36:13.

I'm prepared to dance around the head of the pin on this

:36:14.:36:16.

but I think you need to look at the wider thing the Chancellor

:36:17.:36:19.

was trying to achieve, which is a greater balance

:36:20.:36:22.

between self-employed and employed people.

:36:23.:36:23.

That gap had been very large when the benefits

:36:24.:36:27.

gap was now diminishing and that was what the Chancellor

:36:28.:36:30.

And the principle of keeping your promises has

:36:31.:36:34.

It's the principle of keeping up-to-date with the with the labour

:36:35.:36:38.

market is changing and making sure people are making an appropriate

:36:39.:36:40.

contribution for the benefits they will receive.

:36:41.:36:42.

No, this is dancing on the head of a pain.

:36:43.:36:45.

There was a clear manifesto pledge at the last election

:36:46.:36:50.

from the Conservatives that they would not have any taxes

:36:51.:36:54.

going up and quite simply national insurance for a weight

:36:55.:36:57.

Yes, there is a case to look at what is self employment and some

:36:58.:37:11.

people are more appropriately self-employed and others.

:37:12.:37:14.

It might have been prudent to look at who is self-employed and how that

:37:15.:37:18.

works first and decide what to do afterwards because what this

:37:19.:37:24.

increase has done is it's caught everybody who is self-employed,

:37:25.:37:33.

from solicitors to butchers to hairdressers to people who drive

:37:34.:37:38.

taxis to people who do deliveries, and those are all in

:37:39.:37:41.

So you don't disagree with the principle that

:37:42.:37:44.

self-employed people should be paying more national insurance

:37:45.:37:48.

and you haven't made that manifesto commitment so why not say it

:37:49.:37:51.

What I'm saying is that there is a case to look at

:37:52.:37:55.

what self-employment consists of in a changing labour market

:37:56.:37:57.

but it is not this case to be made at this budget to put national

:37:58.:38:00.

insurance contributions up for everybody who is self-employed,

:38:01.:38:02.

regardless of their actual circumstances.

:38:03.:38:07.

What is interesting is that the Prime Minister has

:38:08.:38:10.

started to take part in the unravelling of the budget

:38:11.:38:17.

by saying it will be voted on until the autumn.

:38:18.:38:23.

At that time it may be the case that a commission that has been set up

:38:24.:38:27.

to look at what the status of self-employed is

:38:28.:38:31.

Kicked into the long grass, possibly.

:38:32.:38:33.

It shouldn't have happened in this way and...

:38:34.:38:40.

The first point is, as Alan acknowledges,

:38:41.:38:42.

the government has already appointed Matthew Taylor to look

:38:43.:38:44.

at the self-employed as a whole to see what changes may be needed

:38:45.:38:47.

Both in terms of additional contribution but also

:38:48.:38:50.

The second point to make is that overall the self-employed

:38:51.:38:54.

15% of people are self employed, over 60% of these people will be

:38:55.:38:58.

The people who earn less than 16,000.

:38:59.:39:00.

And that is a very, very important thing.

:39:01.:39:03.

I think it is a regret that, at the same time as we extended

:39:04.:39:07.

the pension entitlement, we didn't make these changes then.

:39:08.:39:09.

I think it is a shame we disconnected them.

:39:10.:39:15.

People would have understood there was a give as well as a take.

:39:16.:39:18.

You know that in both our constituencies and number of people

:39:19.:39:20.

who are the lifeblood of our local areas who are working

:39:21.:39:23.

in local businesses, who are working in local shops,

:39:24.:39:25.

are now far worse off than they were before the budget.

:39:26.:39:28.

For no other reason than they are properly self-employed.

:39:29.:39:30.

I don't agree it looks like a shambles.

:39:31.:39:34.

I do agree we could have done a better job of explaining

:39:35.:39:36.

But I think the changes the Chancellor made are sound.

:39:37.:39:50.

The Brexit Bill is back in the Commons this week for the next

:39:51.:39:53.

One of the two amendments added in the Lords and which the government

:39:54.:39:57.

says it will remove is to guarantee the rights of EU nationals

:39:58.:40:01.

That's not to be as many as 3 million people,

:40:02.:40:04.

many of whom have been living here for decades.

:40:05.:40:06.

The uncertainty they are facing has led to an unprecedented increase

:40:07.:40:09.

in the applications for permanent residency but, as our reporter has

:40:10.:40:11.

discovered, that represents for them a real fear for the future.

:40:12.:40:16.

Two women, two different lives, but they both have the same concern.

:40:17.:40:19.

I don't know what is going to happen to me.

:40:20.:40:22.

So I would have to lead but where would I go?

:40:23.:40:34.

I don't want to leave here because my life this year.

:40:35.:40:36.

I've got a son, I've got stepchildren.

:40:37.:40:43.

These anxieties and worries are widely shared among EU citizens

:40:44.:40:45.

There are hundreds of thousands of people like them,

:40:46.:40:53.

eager to apply for permanent residency, the guaranteed right

:40:54.:40:55.

It might suddenly be a very hard thing that comes out of it.

:40:56.:41:08.

There's no point sticking your head in the sand.

:41:09.:41:12.

Elly came here in the 60s from Holland.

:41:13.:41:14.

She's an artist and worked all her life.

:41:15.:41:16.

The statements by the government are so heartless in a way

:41:17.:41:22.

and ignorant sometimes, very ignorant of what

:41:23.:41:25.

people have actually contributed to this country.

:41:26.:41:29.

If I stay here I shall pay taxes until my dying day.

:41:30.:41:39.

Another Dutch National has just finished her Ph.D.

:41:40.:41:48.

in Oxford and has lived in the UK since the early 90s.

:41:49.:41:51.

Suddenly I am looking at that I could be deported and where do I go?

:41:52.:41:55.

We are suddenly up against needing a permanent residence card

:41:56.:42:00.

If you want to apply for permanent residency,

:42:01.:42:07.

It is an 85 page document that requires an awful of added

:42:08.:42:17.

paperwork, including five years worth of P60s, historic utility

:42:18.:42:20.

bills are and, even in some cases, a diary of all the times you may

:42:21.:42:24.

The toll it takes emotionally and psychologically.

:42:25.:42:26.

You spend so much time worrying about it, asking questions,

:42:27.:42:29.

The tax people and the banks say after seven years you don't have

:42:30.:42:43.

Now I need those papers and I haven't got them anymore.

:42:44.:42:50.

You have to fight off anxiety because you are thinking

:42:51.:42:52.

Permanent residency status isn't mandatory while we are still part

:42:53.:43:05.

of the EU and experts say there is no rush to apply

:43:06.:43:09.

but there has already been an increase in applications

:43:10.:43:11.

There's a whole list of criteria to qualify for permanent residency.

:43:12.:43:18.

For at least five years you need to have worked, been self-employed,

:43:19.:43:24.

a student or self-sufficient person who has been living in the UK.

:43:25.:43:27.

But there is a major stumbling block.

:43:28.:43:29.

Students and self-sufficient people such as pensioners or those

:43:30.:43:32.

who are able to support themselves financially need comprehensive

:43:33.:43:34.

Being a student and not having the CSI, I can't apply even though

:43:35.:43:43.

I have worked for long enough and I have got the state pension

:43:44.:43:50.

I do not need CSI as long as I can prove my work history but I haven't

:43:51.:44:02.

got any P60s or whatever else you need to prove and that is why

:44:03.:44:07.

The Home Office didn't have anybody available to speak to us

:44:08.:44:15.

but they did say there has been no change to EU immigration law

:44:16.:44:18.

For now, it is not necessary to apply but uncertainty looms.

:44:19.:44:30.

These two feel that since the referendum there has been a very

:44:31.:44:33.

I thought, what has been lying under the surface that I wasn't aware of?

:44:34.:44:48.

Suddenly you are being made to feel that you are not welcome.

:44:49.:44:51.

But of course everyone always says, but we don't mean you.

:44:52.:44:55.

But all the other people are just like me.

:44:56.:44:59.

So for people like that life has changed overnight.

:45:00.:45:09.

Our guest is from the 3 Million group.

:45:10.:45:11.

You have also applied and have got your permanent residence.

:45:12.:45:14.

But also having heard those voices, is it the outages that has shifted

:45:15.:45:20.

in the country or a new experience the system that has made

:45:21.:45:23.

I've started to realise what the Home Office rules are.

:45:24.:45:28.

After the referendum I thought I will apply

:45:29.:45:33.

for citizenship because I want to solidify my position.

:45:34.:45:37.

I realised then I would have to apply for permanent residence

:45:38.:45:39.

which was only introduced in November 2015 as a

:45:40.:45:42.

I got rejected on a technicality, got unbelievable bureaucratic

:45:43.:45:48.

treatment at the hands of the Home Office.

:45:49.:45:53.

And in this process I started learning about all these people do

:45:54.:45:55.

You can have been here for ten years but if you take a job abroad

:45:56.:46:04.

for a couple of years your clock starts again and you

:46:05.:46:06.

And they were saying about having to keep all the records which people

:46:07.:46:11.

There are women whose utility bills have all been in their husband's

:46:12.:46:15.

I know somebody who is an EU national, divorced from her British

:46:16.:46:24.

husband, is on benefits because she has an adult disabled

:46:25.:46:28.

son, cannot possibly afford CSI, nobody even knew about CSI.

:46:29.:46:31.

I get really cross when the newspapers say anyone who has

:46:32.:46:37.

been here over five years is fine because that is not actually true.

:46:38.:46:41.

Because you got to be able to prove it and it feels

:46:42.:46:44.

It is more than being able to prove it.

:46:45.:46:48.

There are some people who do not qualify according

:46:49.:46:51.

There is such a disconnect between what politicians

:46:52.:46:54.

and the media are saying about these five years.

:46:55.:46:58.

Peter Bone on Newsnight said, I will help you fill in the form,

:46:59.:47:00.

totally patronising us as though it was just a question

:47:01.:47:04.

And all the documents you have to provide.

:47:05.:47:07.

I only qualified by the skin of my teeth because I happen to know

:47:08.:47:13.

you have a five-year block but I took a couple of years off

:47:14.:47:16.

It affects students and so many people but the really important

:47:17.:47:22.

When the Home Office says you don't need to do anything,

:47:23.:47:33.

nothing changes, it matters because immigration here

:47:34.:47:34.

is delegated down to landlords and banks and all sorts of things

:47:35.:47:38.

so people are struggling to get jobs, they are being turned down

:47:39.:47:41.

for jobs, turned down for rented accommodation.

:47:42.:47:43.

The phrase used in the report was sanctioned racism.

:47:44.:47:50.

I know know people who are speaking French on the tube and date

:47:51.:48:01.

gets addressed with, you need to speak English here.

:48:02.:48:04.

Which wouldn't have happened, do you think, before the vote?

:48:05.:48:06.

Like you say, it's sanctioned racism.

:48:07.:48:09.

Would it be alleviated if we were told everyone

:48:10.:48:14.

Following the referendum result, we've got to urgently and at a very

:48:15.:48:26.

early stage regularise the position of EU nationals living in the UK

:48:27.:48:35.

and the easiest way to do that is to say that,

:48:36.:48:37.

if you are an EU national living in the UK at the time

:48:38.:48:40.

of the referendum, July, then you have status

:48:41.:48:42.

But that's not our fault that we can't do that at the moment.

:48:43.:48:46.

If the EU were to say, yes, we will do a deal,

:48:47.:48:49.

it is important that people are treated properly.

:48:50.:48:51.

I think it is our fault because it is inconceivable

:48:52.:48:56.

to my mind that we could really end up banging our fists on the table

:48:57.:49:05.

in negotiation with the EU saying we will chuck our EU nationals out

:49:06.:49:12.

if you don't let our nationals stay in your country or whatever.

:49:13.:49:14.

Not only is it something we need to do the people who have lived

:49:15.:49:18.

in the UK for years and years and years and paid their taxes

:49:19.:49:21.

and had their lives in the UK, but also that is important

:49:22.:49:24.

One tenth of those people working in the General Hospital

:49:25.:49:28.

in Southampton are UK nationals and we can't conceivably throw

:49:29.:49:30.

all those people out of the country and we ought to sort it out

:49:31.:49:34.

at the earliest possible opportunity.

:49:35.:49:36.

We are not going to tell people like our guest they have

:49:37.:49:39.

It is not going to happen and we are making them feel

:49:40.:49:43.

Firstly, the contribution that EU citizens make

:49:44.:49:46.

to the UK is immense, it is welcome, they are an integral

:49:47.:49:52.

part of our society, our economy, our way of life.

:49:53.:49:57.

You are absolutely right on the question

:49:58.:49:59.

We wanted to do this really early on.

:50:00.:50:02.

The Prime Minister made this offer to her fellow European

:50:03.:50:05.

Angela Merkel said, we couldn't do that until the process began.

:50:06.:50:10.

I regret we didn't do this, the offer Theresa May

:50:11.:50:15.

We've now been very clear that this is something we want to achieve

:50:16.:50:22.

right up front at the beginning of the negotiations.

:50:23.:50:24.

Of course there is no question of deporting anybody.

:50:25.:50:26.

Goodness me, a country like Britain deporting people

:50:27.:50:28.

So it is a hollow threat to be making to Angela Merkel anyway.

:50:29.:50:34.

No, because these are quite complex matters.

:50:35.:50:37.

The other point is that we have lots of British nationals living

:50:38.:50:41.

in other European Union countries and we want at the same time

:50:42.:50:45.

as we guarantee the rights of EU nationals living here to get them

:50:46.:50:52.

the right to remain, we want guarantees for them too.

:50:53.:50:54.

It's not fair because you haven't listened

:50:55.:50:57.

They have been wanting to speak to the government and there have

:50:58.:51:01.

been newspaper reports that they have not been

:51:02.:51:03.

Because they want their rights guaranteed in Europe as well.

:51:04.:51:08.

Yes, they do but they have written really strongly,

:51:09.:51:14.

I have quotes that I can't read out now, but they have written

:51:15.:51:17.

to say that they want us to get unilateral...

:51:18.:51:19.

They have come to give evidence at the Brexit select committee

:51:20.:51:22.

to say they also want unilateral rights to be given to us

:51:23.:51:26.

because they do not want to be part of a negotiation.

:51:27.:51:33.

Your very language to say it is down to Germany not agreeing,

:51:34.:51:36.

you are going back to it being a negotiation.

:51:37.:51:39.

Which bit of unilateral do you not understand

:51:40.:51:41.

If it is not a negotiation, it's unilateral.

:51:42.:51:51.

If you forgive me, I will absolutely defend the rights of the government

:51:52.:51:54.

of the United Kingdom to guarantee the rights of United Kingdom

:51:55.:51:57.

citizens living in the European Union at the same time

:51:58.:51:59.

as those rights given to those already here

:52:00.:52:01.

Why don't you at least guarantee the rights that are already

:52:02.:52:06.

Why don't you say something to them about maintaining

:52:07.:52:10.

Say something about continuing to pay for their health care?

:52:11.:52:13.

All the concerns that the British people in Europe that we work with,

:52:14.:52:16.

because we're not trying to just speak out on us.

:52:17.:52:19.

The question you have posed goes to the heart of the complexity

:52:20.:52:30.

of the mutuality of the assurances that we are seeking in negotiations.

:52:31.:52:34.

You should just say that we should be OK.

:52:35.:52:37.

Of course it should be because it's about pension rights to crude

:52:38.:52:42.

entitlements and we can make sure that those living in Germany

:52:43.:52:44.

and Spain and Portugal and France, our citizens living there,

:52:45.:52:46.

can also get those reciprocal rights.

:52:47.:52:48.

That has to be part of a whole agreement and Angela Merkel has been

:52:49.:52:51.

clear that we can't do that except as part of a negotiation.

:52:52.:52:54.

But you are still saying that it is part of a negotiation

:52:55.:52:57.

and if Mrs Merkel, after triggering Article 50, doesn't get you XYZ

:52:58.:53:00.

you are going to take away some of our XYZ rights

:53:01.:53:03.

because it is a negotiation and that goes to the heart of it.

:53:04.:53:05.

It's about getting the best rights for our citizens in the EU and EU

:53:06.:53:09.

Let's just bring in Alan before we go.

:53:10.:53:13.

Which ever way you cut it, if you take that line,

:53:14.:53:16.

it is a negotiation and there is everything to gain

:53:17.:53:18.

and nothing to lose by treating this unilaterally.

:53:19.:53:20.

EU citizens in the UK should unilaterally have the right to stay

:53:21.:53:27.

now and we can do that now and it should not be part

:53:28.:53:30.

Is there any chance the government will change its mind?

:53:31.:53:33.

No, the purpose of a negotiation is to get the best deal mutually

:53:34.:53:37.

for our citizens in the EU and EU citizens here.

:53:38.:53:39.

Now, our regular round-up of the political week

:53:40.:53:45.

Air pollution in Oxford could be cut by a low emissions zone.

:53:46.:53:53.

They go away from the Thames Valley only to discover their

:53:54.:53:59.

Fog started to clear around government negotiations

:54:00.:54:04.

with Surrey County Council to stop a 15% tax rise.

:54:05.:54:08.

In a secret recording the leader referred to...

:54:09.:54:11.

How much did the government offer Surrey County Council

:54:12.:54:20.

Documents reveal a deal drawn up but dropped at the last minute.

:54:21.:54:27.

There was some help in the budget for businesses whose

:54:28.:54:33.

We've got rent increase and we've got rate increase,

:54:34.:54:36.

Fears of a flood of sewage could delay the ?3 million

:54:37.:54:41.

They are worried a sewer upgrade won't be ready.

:54:42.:54:49.

I'm begging Thames Water to come and activate this process now.

:54:50.:54:54.

I've spent several evenings this week going through the release

:54:55.:54:59.

of documents to do with Surrey County Council

:55:00.:55:01.

I guess all councils try and get a deal, don't they?

:55:02.:55:06.

That is the job of government and local authorities coming

:55:07.:55:12.

up to the settlement, is to try and get the best

:55:13.:55:15.

I think Surrey have bargained very hard with government.

:55:16.:55:27.

The adult social care problem is a massive one

:55:28.:55:29.

We confronted it in Bournemouth and Poole and there was a sense

:55:30.:55:33.

amongst all local authorities that what the government had done

:55:34.:55:35.

to date was not enough to meet the shortfall.

:55:36.:55:37.

The Chancellor was listening, aside from what they were talking

:55:38.:55:43.

to Surrey about, and he recognised that an extra

:55:44.:55:46.

?2 billion over three years for local authorities

:55:47.:55:48.

I think that is the big issue, is the government confronting

:55:49.:55:52.

the reality of adult social care on the ground at meeting

:55:53.:55:59.

I will come back to you on whether or not they should have ever denied

:56:00.:56:04.

there was any sort of arrangement that was being negotiated

:56:05.:56:06.

but it is not a sweetheart deal for Surrey County Council.

:56:07.:56:09.

All this is frankly more fishy than a very large plate of haddock.

:56:10.:56:12.

So why is Jeremy Corbyn banging on about it?

:56:13.:56:14.

It is clearly, as revealed by the e-mails and recordings,

:56:15.:56:20.

Surrey thought they had a sweetheart deal in the bag and clearly a lot

:56:21.:56:23.

the lines of there would be a sweetheart deal.

:56:24.:56:31.

I have been a local authority leader in my time and I've never had that

:56:32.:56:35.

sort of arrangement with any government minister or department.

:56:36.:56:36.

There was a sweetheart deal in the budget.

:56:37.:56:42.

It was ?2 billion extra for adult social care

:56:43.:56:44.

A great sweetheart deal, a great Chancellor delivering

:56:45.:56:49.

That's the Sunday Politics in the South.

:56:50.:56:55.

Thank you to my guests, Conor Burns from Bournemouth,

:56:56.:56:57.

You can keep up-to-date with Southern politics,

:56:58.:57:16.

Now the government plans for new grammar schools.

:57:17.:57:19.

The Education Secretary Justine Greening was

:57:20.:57:21.

speaking to a conference of headteachers on Friday.

:57:22.:57:23.

They're normally a pretty polite bunch, but they didn't

:57:24.:57:25.

Broadcasters weren't allowed into the speech,

:57:26.:57:31.

but this was captured on a camera phone.

:57:32.:57:36.

And we have to recognise actually for grammars, in terms of

:57:37.:57:39.

disadvantaged children, that they have, they really

:57:40.:57:43.

do help them close the attainment gap.

:57:44.:57:45.

And at the same time we should recognise that

:57:46.:57:47.

..That parents also want choice for their children and that

:57:48.:57:55.

those schools are often very oversubscribed.

:57:56.:58:02.

I suppose it is a rite of passage for and education secretaries to

:58:03.:58:11.

have this at a head teachers conference book the head are usually

:58:12.:58:16.

more polite. Isn't part of the problem, whether one is for or

:58:17.:58:19.

against the expansion of grammar schools, the government plans are

:58:20.:58:25.

complicated, you cannot sum them up in a sentence. The proof of that is

:58:26.:58:30.

they can still get away with denying they are expanding grammar schools.

:58:31.:58:34.

They will find an alternative formulation because it is not as

:58:35.:58:37.

simple as a brute creation of what we used to know is grammar schools

:58:38.:58:41.

with the absolute cut-off of the 11 plus. I am surprised how easy they

:58:42.:58:48.

found it politically. We saw the clip of Justine Greening being

:58:49.:58:52.

jeered a little bit but in the grand scheme, compared to another

:58:53.:58:56.

government trying this idea a decade ago they have got away with it

:58:57.:59:00.

easily and I think what is happening is a perverse consequence of Brexit

:59:01.:59:04.

and the media attention on Brexit, the government of the day can just

:59:05.:59:09.

about get away with slightly more contentious domestic policies on the

:59:10.:59:13.

correct assumption we will be too busy investing our attention in

:59:14.:59:18.

Article 50 and two years of negotiations, WTO terms at

:59:19.:59:22.

everything we have been discussing. I wonder if after grammar schools

:59:23.:59:27.

there will be examples of contentious domestic policies

:59:28.:59:30.

Theresa May can slide in stock because Brexit sucks the life out,

:59:31.:59:39.

takes the attention away. You are a supporter. Broadly. Are you happy

:59:40.:59:44.

with the government approach? They need to have more gumption and stop

:59:45.:59:49.

being apologetic. It is a bazaar area of public policy where we judge

:59:50.:59:53.

the policy on grammar schools based on what it does for children whose

:59:54.:59:58.

parents are unemployed, living on sink estates in Liverpool. It is

:59:59.:00:03.

absurd, we don't judge any other policy like that. It is simple, not

:00:04.:00:07.

contentious, people who are not sure, ask them if they would apply

:00:08.:00:11.

to send their child there, six out of ten said they would. Parents want

:00:12.:00:18.

good schools for their children, we should have appropriate education

:00:19.:00:20.

and they should be straightforward, this is about the future of the

:00:21.:00:24.

economy and we need bright children to get education at the highest

:00:25.:00:28.

level, education for academically bright children. It is supposed to

:00:29.:00:34.

be a signature policy of the Theresa May administration that marks a

:00:35.:00:37.

government different from David Cameron's government who did not go

:00:38.:00:41.

down this road. The signature is pretty blurred, it is hard to read.

:00:42.:00:46.

It is. She is trying to address concerns about those who fail to get

:00:47.:00:54.

into these selective schools and tried to targeted in poorer areas

:00:55.:00:57.

and the rest of it. She will probably come across so many

:00:58.:01:01.

obstacles. It is not clear what form it will take in the end. It is

:01:02.:01:05.

really an example of a signature policy not fully thought through. I

:01:06.:01:08.

think it was one of her first announcements. It was. It surprised

:01:09.:01:12.

everybody. Surprised at the speed and pace at which they were planning

:01:13.:01:17.

to go. Ever since, there have been qualifications and hesitations en

:01:18.:01:22.

route with good cause, in my view. I disagree with Juliet that this is...

:01:23.:01:26.

We all want good schools but if you don't get in there and you end up in

:01:27.:01:29.

a less good school. They already do that. We have selection based on the

:01:30.:01:33.

income of parents getting into a good catchment area, based on the

:01:34.:01:37.

faith of the parents. That becomes very attainable! I might been too

:01:38.:01:43.

shot run christenings for these. -- I have been.

:01:44.:01:46.

Now, you may remember this time last week we were talking

:01:47.:01:48.

about the extraordinary claims by US President Donald Trump,

:01:49.:01:51.

on Twitter of course, that Barack Obama had ordered

:01:52.:01:53.

And there was me thinking that wiretaps went out

:01:54.:01:56.

Is it legal for a sitting President to do so, he asked,

:01:57.:02:01.

concluding it was a "new low", and later comparing it to Watergate.

:02:02.:02:10.

Since then, the White House has been pressed to provide evidence for this

:02:11.:02:13.

It hasn't, but it seems it may have initially come from a report on a US

:02:14.:02:20.

website by the former Conservative MP Louise Mensch.

:02:21.:02:22.

She wrote that the FBI had been granted a warrant to intercept

:02:23.:02:25.

communications between Trump's campaign and Russia.

:02:26.:02:33.

Well, Louise Mensch joins us now from New York.

:02:34.:02:41.

Louise, you claimed in early November that the FBI had secured a

:02:42.:02:48.

court warrants to monitor communications between trump Tower

:02:49.:02:52.

in New York at two Russian banks. It's now four months later. Isn't it

:02:53.:02:56.

the case that nobody has proved the existence of this warrant?

:02:57.:03:01.

First of all, forgive me Andrew, one takes 1's life in one's hand when it

:03:02.:03:07.

is you but I have to correct your characterisation of my reporting. It

:03:08.:03:11.

is very important. I did not report that the FBI had a warrant to

:03:12.:03:15.

intercept anything or that Trump tower was any part of it. What I

:03:16.:03:20.

reported was that the FBI obtained a warrant is targeted on all

:03:21.:03:24.

communications between two Russian banks and were, therefore, allowed

:03:25.:03:28.

to examine US persons in the context of their investigation. What the

:03:29.:03:34.

Americans call legally incidental collection. I certainly didn't

:03:35.:03:40.

report that the warrant was able to intercept or that it had location

:03:41.:03:43.

basis, for example Trump tower. I just didn't report that. The reason

:03:44.:03:49.

that matters so much is that I now believe based on the President's

:03:50.:03:54.

reaction, there may well be a wiretap act Trump Tower. If so,

:03:55.:03:58.

Donald Trump has just tweeted out evidence in an ongoing criminal case

:03:59.:04:01.

that neither I nor anybody else reported. He is right about

:04:02.:04:05.

Watergate because he will have committed obstruction of justice

:04:06.:04:09.

directly from his Twitter account. Let me come back as thank you for

:04:10.:04:13.

clarifying. Let me come back to the question. -- and thank you. We have

:04:14.:04:20.

not yet got proof that this warrant exists, do we? No and we are most

:04:21.:04:25.

unlikely to get it because it would be a heinous crime for Donald Trump

:04:26.:04:29.

to reveal its existence. In America they call it a Glomar response. I

:04:30.:04:33.

can neither confirm nor deny. That is what all American officials will

:04:34.:04:36.

have to say legally. If you are looking for proof, you won't get it

:04:37.:04:41.

until and unless a court cases brought. But that doesn't mean it

:04:42.:04:46.

doesn't exist. The BBC validated this two months after me in their

:04:47.:04:49.

reporting by the journalist Paul Wood. The Guardian, they also

:04:50.:04:54.

separately from their own sources validated the existence of the

:04:55.:04:58.

warrant. If you are in America, you would know that CNN and others are

:04:59.:05:01.

reporting that the investigation in ongoing. Let me come onto the wider

:05:02.:05:05.

point. You believe the Trump campaign including the president

:05:06.:05:10.

were complicit with the Russians during the 2016 election campaign to

:05:11.:05:13.

such an extent that Mr Trump should be impeached. What evidence did you

:05:14.:05:15.

have? That is an enormous amount of

:05:16.:05:25.

evidence. You could start with him saying, hey, Russia, if you are

:05:26.:05:28.

listening, please release all the Hillary Clinton's e-mails. That's

:05:29.:05:33.

not evidence. I think it rather is, actually. Especially if you look at

:05:34.:05:36.

some of the evidence that exists on Twitter and elsewhere of people

:05:37.:05:40.

talking directly to his social media manager, Dan should be no and

:05:41.:05:44.

telling him to do that before it happened. There is a bit out there.

:05:45.:05:49.

The BBC itself reported that in April of last year, a six agency

:05:50.:05:54.

task force, not just the FBI, but the Treasury Department, was looking

:05:55.:05:57.

at this. I believe there is an enormous amount of evidence. And

:05:58.:06:01.

then there is the steel dossier which was included in an official

:06:02.:06:03.

report of the US intelligence committee. You've also ... Just to

:06:04.:06:12.

be clear, we don't have hard evidence yet whether this warrant

:06:13.:06:16.

exists. It may or may not. There is doubt about... There are claims

:06:17.:06:19.

about whether there is evidence about Mr Trump and the Russians.

:06:20.:06:22.

That is another matter. You claimed that President Putin had Andrew

:06:23.:06:29.

Breitbart murdered to pave the way for Steve Bannon to play a key role

:06:30.:06:35.

in the Trump administration. I haven't. You said that Steve Bannon

:06:36.:06:39.

is behind bomb threats to Jewish community centres. Aren't you in

:06:40.:06:44.

danger of just peddling wild conspiracy theories? No. Festival, I

:06:45.:06:48.

haven't. No matter how many times people say this, it's not going to

:06:49.:06:53.

be true -- first of all. I said in twitter I believe that to be the

:06:54.:06:56.

case about the murder of Andrew Breitbart. You believe President

:06:57.:07:03.

Putin murdered him. I didn't! You said I reported it, but I believed

:07:04.:07:07.

it. You put it on twitter that you believed it but you don't have a

:07:08.:07:12.

shred of evidence. I do. Indeed, I know made assertions. What is the

:07:13.:07:17.

evidence that Mr Putin murdered Andrew Breitbart? I said I believe

:07:18.:07:22.

it. You may believe there are fairies at the bottom of your

:07:23.:07:26.

garden, it doesn't make it true. I may indeed. And if I say so, that's

:07:27.:07:31.

my belief. If I say I am reporting, as I did with the Fisa warrant

:07:32.:07:39.

exists, I have a basis in fact. They believe is just a belief. I know you

:07:40.:07:45.

are relatively new to journalism. Let me get the rules right. Andrew,

:07:46.:07:52.

jealousy is not your colour... If it is twitter, we don't believe it but

:07:53.:07:55.

if it is on your website, we should believe it? If I report something

:07:56.:08:00.

and I say this happened, then I am making an assertion. If I describe a

:08:01.:08:04.

belief, I am describing a belief. Subtlety may be a little difficult

:08:05.:08:10.

for you... No, no. If you want to be a journalist, beliefs have to be

:08:11.:08:17.

backed up with evidence. Really? Do you have a faith? It's not a matter

:08:18.:08:21.

of faith, maybe in your case, that President Putin murdered Andrew

:08:22.:08:26.

Breitbart. A belief and a report at two different things and no matter

:08:27.:08:30.

how often you say that they are the same, they will never be the same.

:08:31.:08:35.

You've said in today's Sunday Times here in London that you've turned

:08:36.:08:42.

into" a temporary superpower" where you "See things really clearly".

:08:43.:08:48.

Have you become delusional? No. I am describing a biological basis for

:08:49.:08:54.

ADHD, which I have. As any of your viewers who are doctors will know.

:08:55.:08:57.

It provides people with unfortunately a lot of scattered

:08:58.:09:01.

focus, they are very messy and absent-minded but when they are

:09:02.:09:03.

interested in things and they have ADHD they can have a condition which

:09:04.:09:08.

is hyper focus. You concentrate very hard on a given subject and you can

:09:09.:09:11.

see patterns and connections. That is biological. Thank you for

:09:12.:09:17.

explaining that. And for getting up early in New York. The first time

:09:18.:09:23.

ever I have interviewed a temporary superpower. Thank you. You are so

:09:24.:09:27.

lucky! You are so lucky! I don't think it's going to happen again.

:09:28.:09:31.

Please don't ask us to comment on that interview! I will not ask you,

:09:32.:09:35.

viewers will make up their own minds. Let's come back to be more

:09:36.:09:39.

mundane world of Article 50. Stop the killing!

:09:40.:09:43.

Will it get through at the government wanted it? Without the

:09:44.:09:49.

Lords amendment falling by the way that? I am sure the Lord will not

:09:50.:09:52.

try to ping-pong this back and forth. So we are at the end of this

:09:53.:09:56.

particular legislative phase. The fact that all three Brexit Cabinet

:09:57.:10:00.

ministers, number ten often don't like one of them going out on a

:10:01.:10:03.

broadcast interview on a Sunday, they've all been out and about. That

:10:04.:10:07.

suggests to me they are working on the assumption it will be triggered

:10:08.:10:12.

this week. This week. The negotiations will begin or at least

:10:13.:10:16.

the process begins. The negotiation process may be difficult, given all

:10:17.:10:19.

of the European elections. The Dutch this week. And then the French and

:10:20.:10:25.

maybe the Italians and certainly the Germans by the end of September,

:10:26.:10:28.

which is less predictable than it was. Given all that, what did you

:10:29.:10:34.

make of Anna Soubry's claim, Viacom on her part, that we may just end up

:10:35.:10:38.

crashing out in six months question -- fear on her part. It was not just

:10:39.:10:44.

that that we made that deliberately organising. I want us to get on with

:10:45.:10:46.

the deals. Everyone knows a good deal is the

:10:47.:10:53.

best option. Who knows what is going to be on the table when we finally

:10:54.:10:58.

go out? Fascinatingly, the demand for some money back, given the

:10:59.:11:03.

amount of money... Net gains and net costs in terms of us leaving for the

:11:04.:11:07.

EU. It is all to play for. That will be a possible early grounds for a

:11:08.:11:14.

confrontation between the UK and the EU. My understanding is that they

:11:15.:11:19.

expect to do a deal on reciprocal rights of EU nationals, EU nationals

:11:20.:11:23.

here, UK citizens there, quite quickly. They want to clear that up

:11:24.:11:27.

and that will be done. Then they will hit this problem that the EU

:11:28.:11:31.

will be saying you've got to agree the divorce Bill first before we

:11:32.:11:36.

talk about the free trade bill. David Davis saying quite clearly,

:11:37.:11:39.

no, they go together because of the size of the bill. It will be

:11:40.:11:44.

determined, in our part, by how good the access will be. The mutual

:11:45.:11:48.

recognition of EU residents' rights is no trouble. A huge amount of fuss

:11:49.:11:51.

is attracted to that subject but it is the easiest thing to deal with,

:11:52.:11:56.

as is free movement for tourists. Money is what will make it

:11:57.:11:59.

incredibly acrimonious. Incredibly quickly. I imagine the dominant

:12:00.:12:02.

story in the summer will be all about that. This was Anna Soubry's

:12:03.:12:06.

implication, members of the governors could strongly argue,

:12:07.:12:10.

things are so poisonous and so unpleasant at the moment, the

:12:11.:12:13.

dealers are advancing -- members of the government. Why not call it a

:12:14.:12:18.

day and go out on WTO terms while public opinion is still in that

:12:19.:12:22.

direction in that Eurosceptic direction? No buyers' remorse about

:12:23.:12:25.

last year's referendum. The longer they leave it, view more opportunity

:12:26.:12:30.

there is for some kind of public resistance and change of mind to

:12:31.:12:34.

take place. The longer believe it, the more people who voted for Brexit

:12:35.:12:38.

and people who voted Remain and think we didn't get world War three

:12:39.:12:42.

will start being quite angry with the EU for not agreeing a deal. In

:12:43.:12:45.

terms of the rights of EU nationals he and Brits abroad, by all

:12:46.:12:51.

accounts, 26 of the 27 have agreed individually. Angela Merkel is the

:12:52.:12:55.

only person who has held that up. That will be dealt with in a matter

:12:56.:12:58.

of days. The chances of a deal being done is likely but in ten seconds...

:12:59.:13:05.

It would not be a bad bet to protect your on something not happening, you

:13:06.:13:08.

might get pretty good odds? The odds are going up that a deal doesn't

:13:09.:13:13.

happen. But, as I said earlier, the House of Commons will not endorse no

:13:14.:13:18.

deal. We are either in an early election or she has to go back

:13:19.:13:23.

again. Either way, you will need us! We will be back at noon tomorrow on

:13:24.:13:28.

BBC Two ahead of what looks like being a big week in politics. We

:13:29.:13:30.

will be back here same time, same place.

:13:31.:13:34.

Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:35.:14:38.

They're calling it an entertainment extravaganza

:14:39.:14:46.

Andrew Neil and Peter Henley with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Andrew discusses the Brexit bill with UKIP's Nigel Farage and Conservative MP Anna Soubry. Guests include Matthew Taylor of the Independent Review of Employment Practices and journalist Louise Mensch. On the political panel are Janan Ganesh, Julia Hartley-Brewer and Steve Richards.