29/09/2013 Sunday Politics Wales


29/09/2013

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do with the lack of talent, it is Sunday Politics. David Cameron

:00:20.:00:45.

rushes out a scheme to help house-buyers with deposits. Is he

:00:45.:00:49.

merely stoking a new house price bubble? As Tory activist 's gather

:00:49.:00:53.

merely stoking a new house price in Manchester, we will have the

:00:53.:00:58.

results of our exclusive survey of Conservative councillors. I will be

:00:58.:01:00.

speaking to Foreign Secretary William Hague. And Ed Miliband made

:01:00.:01:06.

headlines with his pledge to freeze energy prices for 20 months after

:01:06.:01:07.

headlines with his pledge to freeze the next election. But does the new

:01:07.:01:09.

Later in the programme: As the policy really stack up?

:01:09.:01:15.

Later in the programme: As the Conservatives gather in Manchester,

:01:15.:01:18.

we'll hear from their Assembly leader Andrew RT Davies on taxation,

:01:18.:01:19.

devolution and the Welsh budget. Conservative London politicians

:01:19.:01:22.

believe that strikes on the Underground should be made illegal,

:01:22.:01:26.

something the Prime Minister doesn't rule out.

:01:26.:01:37.

With me are a trio of top political commentators. All three will be

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tweeting their thoughts, or in some cases just their thought through the

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show, using the hashtag #bbcsp. The Conservative Party conference gets

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under way in Manchester this afternoon. We have already been

:01:56.:02:01.

bombarded with a series of policy announcements, a tax break for

:02:01.:02:06.

married couples of up to £200 per year, more money on life extending

:02:06.:02:09.

cancer treatments and, last night, the news that the second stage of

:02:09.:02:13.

the Chancellor's Help To Buy scheme will start next week. That is

:02:13.:02:17.

brought forward from the start of next year. David Cameron says it is

:02:17.:02:19.

all about helping hard-working people. Right now, you can't get,

:02:19.:02:28.

it's very difficult to get, a 90% or 95% mortgage. That means a typical

:02:28.:02:32.

family with two people earning 20,000, 25,000, they are being

:02:32.:02:34.

asked, to buy an average house, they 20,000, 25,000, they are being

:02:34.:02:39.

are being asked to find a £40,000 deposit. They can afford the

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are being asked to find a £40,000 mortgage payment, but they can't get

:02:41.:02:44.

the mortgage. They can't buy their flat or house. As Prime Minister,

:02:44.:02:47.

I'm not going to stand back while people's aspirations to get on the

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I'm not going to stand back while housing ladder, to own their own

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flat or home, is being trashed. That is why we need to act. A predictable

:02:53.:02:58.

attempt by party leadership to kick-start the conference with

:02:58.:03:03.

eye-catching policies. The polls show a big bounce for Ed Miliband

:03:03.:03:07.

and the Labour Party, with decent numbers for UKIP. What do party

:03:07.:03:12.

activists think about David Cameron's leadership and the

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challenge posed by UKIP? Adam Fleming has been meeting Tory

:03:17.:03:19.

councillors as they travel to their party conference.

:03:19.:03:25.

For the Conservatives this weekend, all roads and trams lead to

:03:25.:03:29.

Manchester for their party conference, and as a scene setter we

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asked ComRes to survey councillors are Finland and Wales. Councillors

:03:36.:03:41.

asked ComRes to survey councillors like Tom, packing for conference at

:03:41.:03:45.

home in Wellingborough. Immigration is an issue for him. He thinks there

:03:45.:03:50.

are pros and cons. But we found that 54% of his colleagues feel

:03:50.:03:55.

immigration has had a negative impact on the UK. I think it

:03:55.:04:00.

reflects into this wider issue of our relationship with Europe. People

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are very concerned about the possible influx of ovarian and

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Romania emigrants. Obviously the issue of Europe is very big. --

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Ukrainian. His colleagues in Corby are worried about the rise of the UK

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Independence Party. In our survey, nearly a quarter of Conservative

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councillors thought that their party should make a pact with UKIP. The

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concern is, yes, will they take votes away from ourselves in 2015?

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If that happens, maybe we don't get back in. Maybe a partnership is the

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way to go. It depends what they want and we want. But we should be

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talking about them. A pact? Depends what they say, anything is possible.

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What would you like to see? Ideally, from my point of view, a national

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pact. David Cameron arrived in Manchester last night. Around the

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same time as these activists from London. I broke the news to them

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that in our survey just 26% of Tory councillors think that the prime

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ministers in touch with the lives of ordinary people. The same at all

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Conservatives, you don't judge people by their background. It's not

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where they come from, it is where they are going to. It is not a

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where they come from, it is where problem that he is a bit on the posh

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side? Cull you might describe him like that, I would not use those

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words. Explain your T-shirt, it is a phrase that a senior Cameron person

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is alleged to have used about you? It is a humorous way of letting the

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is alleged to have used about you? party now that we are here to say

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what we think. Members are important. We are not going away any

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time soon. A sentiment you will hear a lot at this conference, because

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just 22% of councillors in our survey said that David Cameron was

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any good at listening to the people that work hard for his party. That

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was Adam. Joining me now from the Conservative Party conference in

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Manchester, Foreign Secretary William Hague. Welcome to the Sunday

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Politics. Good morning. Over one in five Tory councillors in our survey

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support a pact with UKIP at the next election. Why do you think that is?

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If it is one in five, it means a large majority did not want a pact

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with UKIP at the next election. They have noticed that UKIP, in local

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elections, has been receiving votes, some of which would otherwise have

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been for the Conservatives. I think we have to make sure that people

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understand that at a general election they are choosing between a

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Conservative and Labour Government, as David Cameron as Prime Minister

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or Ed Miliband. If people want to get a referendum on Europe, the only

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way to do that is to have David Cameron as Prime Minister. I think a

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general election is different from the local government perspective. It

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is pretty unusual, some might say unprecedented, for a large chunk of

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one of the big parties in this country to want to go into coalition

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one of the big parties in this with a smaller party before an

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election. When has that ever happened? Looking at your survey,

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three times as many didn't want to do that. As ever, with a survey,

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with statistics, you can highlight it whichever way around you want to.

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The point is, we are not having pacts with other parties, electoral

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pacts with other parties. You rule it out? That is not going to happen.

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What we do want is to have a pact it out? That is not going to happen.

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with the voters, if you like, as we have often done in the Conservative

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Party. We have won over the voters of other parties to support our

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policies and Prime Minister. That is important with those people that say

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they want to vote for UKIP. By default, they would produce a Labour

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government in the exact opposite of many of the things they intend, if

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they would otherwise vote Conservative and decide to vote for

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UKIP instead in a general election. That could help to produce a Labour

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government. The chairman of the 1922 committee, the elected voice of

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Conservative backbenchers, he says your party should spell out what had

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once back from the European Union before next year's European actions.

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Do you agree? We will be spelling out some things in the European

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elections. I will be talking about this later on today. For instance,

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about the need the UK and the European treaties the concept of

:08:52.:08:57.

ever closer union, a concept that in Britain we have never really

:08:57.:09:00.

believed in. We would like that to be changed, with all of the

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consequences that would flow from that. We will be setting out the

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examples and principles of the changes we want to say. Certainly

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over the next year, not only before the European actions but the general

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election, if you are saying, let have the exact list of anything that

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we are going to be able to negotiate, that is difficult because

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there will be a negotiation of a new deal in Europe if David Cameron as

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there will be a negotiation of a new Prime Minister after the next

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election. To some extent, that has to be negotiated. Only 11% of your

:09:29.:09:37.

own councillors feel that people in their area think that George Osborne

:09:37.:09:39.

is in touch with ordinary people. Why is he seemed to be so aloof? It

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is not for me to explain why people say what they say in surveys. The

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important thing is what we are delivering for the country. What

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George Osborne is delivering his renewed economic growth. 1.4 million

:09:56.:10:01.

new jobs in the private sector, help for hard-working people, by reducing

:10:01.:10:08.

the tax for 25 million of them. The Help To Buy scheme that we are

:10:08.:10:12.

highlighting today. That is what really matters to people, actually,

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I think you will find. Let's talk about helping ordinary people. Ed

:10:16.:10:20.

Miliband is guilty freeze energy prices. What are you going to do

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about energy prices, we already asked energy companies to put people

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on their lowest tariffs. This has not been amended. -- implemented.

:10:36.:10:44.

Why not? This is going to happen within this government. It is going

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to happen within this government when the... Why hasn't it happened

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now? People are suffering now from rising energy prices. It has not

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happened because my colleagues have been implimenting it. In the case of

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Ed Miliband's policy, if you are asking why it has not yet happened

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under this Government, it didn't even survive a few our's scrutiny in

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opposition. In a few hours he had to concede that if there was a big

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change in oil prices then the policy would not work. The trouble is, it

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would dry up some of the investment in the energy industry. I don't

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think it is a credible promise. For a party that presided over council

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tax bills doubling in the next government, -- last government, it's

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not very credible. Why is George Osborne going against the European

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Union to protect banker bonuses? Well, we don't want to see the

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European treaties used in a way that they should not be used. It's not

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necessarily over this particular issue. It is over the power that the

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European Union has over our lives and over this country. Can the

:12:02.:12:06.

bankers look after themselves? We should be able to decide those

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things in our own country. We have never signed up to such matters in

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European institutions. If you allow one thing that wasn't meant to be

:12:18.:12:20.

decided to be decided, you find one thing that wasn't meant to be

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there are another ten or 20 things that affect many other people. We

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are very vigilant about what we call competence creep, with the European

:12:28.:12:33.

Union taking more powers than it was meant to have. That is one of the

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reasons why people do want a referendum, do want a new deal in

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reasons why people do want a Europe. That is what we intend to

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give them. Let's look at in competence creep. A big city

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institution, ICAP, fined for fixing the LIBOR rates. The founder of that

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company has donated £5 million to your party. Shouldn't you give it

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back? Aren't you ashamed to accept that money? He has donated his own

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money to the Conservative Party. Which he made out of ICAP. As people

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have to other parties, people are free to do that and they should be

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free to do that. I am not aware of any plan for that to be repaid.

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Because you can't afford to. Let's recap this. We have seen Tory MPs

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parrot propaganda lines from the energy companies this week. We have

:13:23.:13:27.

the Chancellor going to court to fight for unlimited banker bonuses.

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We have a top Tory donor the centre fight for unlimited banker bonuses.

:13:29.:13:33.

of yet another city scandal. Ed Miliband is right when he says you

:13:34.:13:37.

lot are on the side of the vested interests so the rich and powerful,

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isn't he? Well, again, look at the record. I just did! 1.4 million

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extra jobs in the private sector, 25 million people with a tax cut, a

:13:48.:13:54.

Help To Buy scheme which is going to help so many people, particularly

:13:54.:13:57.

young people have the house that they need and deserve for the

:13:58.:14:03.

future. Council tax bills held down, welfare reform so that it pays to

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work. Actually, this is a government achieving things for hard-working

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people and that will be highlighted to this conference.

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While President Laugharne he's talking about peace, the Iranians

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are speeding up their nuclear weapons programme. -- is talking.

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It would be hard to say from week to week whether it is speeding up

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or slowing down but they are continuing with it. That is why we

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say the new message - the new words - from Iranian leadership are very

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welcome. I said that to the Foreign Minister in New York over the last

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few days but it is the actions that will count. At the moment, the

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nuclear programme continues. We have agreed to commence

:14:59.:15:03.

negotiations on that and that will be a very important test as to

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whether actions will match the words. When will we know it if we

:15:06.:15:12.

are being strung along? He has strung as a long in the past as a

:15:12.:15:17.

nuclear weapons negotiator. When will we know if he is not just

:15:17.:15:22.

doing that again? Over the next few weeks, it will be a very important

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time. He has said there should be more transparency over the Iranian

:15:27.:15:32.

nuclear programme. It is not transparent in many regards at the

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moment. The atomic agency is asking for information that is not being

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given. One test is, in the coming weeks, will they give more

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information? The information that the international of authority is

:15:47.:15:51.

asking for about their nuclear programme. We will be able to form

:15:51.:15:55.

a view of this in the coming weeks or months. It is important we test

:15:55.:16:00.

their new willingness to talk to us and negotiate with us. It is

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important to find out whether they are serious about it. You are

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asking, is the nuclear programme are serious about it. You are

:16:07.:16:11.

really continuing? Are they really going to be realistic about

:16:11.:16:14.

negotiations and offer something they have not offer before?

:16:14.:16:20.

Speaking of being strung along, what sanctions would President

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Assad face if, in six months - the Year, Syria still has a chemical

:16:28.:16:33.

weapons arsenal. In the resolution we voted through the UN Security

:16:33.:16:40.

Council on Friday night, is the commitment that the Security

:16:40.:16:44.

Council will take measures under Chapter seven of the UN Charter in

:16:44.:16:50.

the event of non-compliance. Does that allow full force? I did not

:16:50.:16:56.

catch that. Does that allow for force? It is similar to the

:16:56.:17:00.

Security Council resolution about Iraq, which most people concluded

:17:00.:17:05.

in not allow full force. It does not specify that. It talks about

:17:05.:17:13.

terms seven of the charter. That is a message of the whole UN Security

:17:13.:17:18.

Council that there will be measures - there will be consequences - if

:17:18.:17:24.

the Assad regime does not comply. Russia has a lot riding on this. It

:17:24.:17:29.

has a big commitment. I have spent a lot of time at my Russian

:17:29.:17:33.

counterpart over the last week. Russia has said, this is something

:17:33.:17:38.

you will have to do. We will work with Russia and others very closely

:17:38.:17:43.

to check there is compliance will this resolution. Given the progress

:17:43.:17:48.

that has been made, you must be very glad that the British House of

:17:48.:17:53.

Commons stopped your rash to force against Syria. -- rush. The reason

:17:53.:18:06.

Commons stopped your rash to force has happened is because there was a

:18:06.:18:12.

credible threat of military action. President Obama did not get it

:18:12.:18:18.

through Congress. They have not had the vote in Congress. There is no

:18:18.:18:22.

other explanation as to why the policy changed. It was because

:18:22.:18:26.

there was a debate about military action in the West that the policy

:18:26.:18:32.

changed on theirs. That is why it changed. We were not in a rush for

:18:32.:18:37.

military action. The boat put to the House of Commons was to have

:18:37.:18:41.

another Aotearoa after the inspectors reported. It was before

:18:41.:18:47.

we got to that point that the Russian and Syrian policy changed.

:18:47.:18:55.

We need to make sure that works in practice. Thank you. What do you

:18:55.:19:04.

make about this rushing forward with the help to buy scheme which

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was meant to start next year - coming forward mad to the next

:19:09.:19:14.

couple of weeks? I think it is a terrible policy. The Treasury

:19:14.:19:21.

Select Committee, Perez a fundamental problem with the

:19:21.:19:24.

Government having an interest in mortgage lending. -- there is a

:19:24.:19:30.

fundamental problem. It should have been set much lower to exclude

:19:30.:19:35.

London and the South East where houses are dramatically overvalued.

:19:35.:19:41.

Many economists think freezing energy prices is a terrible policy.

:19:41.:19:46.

These policies can be popular. If you have no chance of getting a

:19:46.:19:50.

deposit, the Government will make that possible because it will

:19:50.:19:55.

guarantee a big chunk of the deposit. Do not forget George

:19:55.:19:58.

Osborne tried every single lever. It looked like he could not do

:19:58.:20:04.

anything to get the economy moving. It is moving. They have pulled it

:20:04.:20:11.

forward and there are signs it is recovering. The reason why they are

:20:11.:20:14.

doing this is they want to show this week at the conference there

:20:14.:20:18.

are real sort of understandable issues you can explain very simply

:20:18.:20:21.

are real sort of understandable that really up going to improve

:20:21.:20:25.

people's lives. The Conservatives were slightly spooked by Ed

:20:25.:20:32.

Miliband's speech last week. The language used by David Cameron this

:20:32.:20:37.

morning was that the tax policy was nuts. Much more cautious and --

:20:38.:20:47.

language about the energy price freeze. They are nervous that Ed

:20:47.:20:52.

Miliband may be touching a nerve on that one. What we will get this

:20:52.:20:56.

week, I suggest, his Tory populism to counter Miliband populism. I

:20:56.:21:02.

week, I suggest, his Tory populism think we will see that and it will

:21:02.:21:04.

be a mistake. As long as it is think we will see that and it will

:21:04.:21:10.

about The Picture, they are on relatively strong ground. When the

:21:10.:21:17.

political conversation changes to more fiddly things, particularities

:21:17.:21:22.

of energy prices or living standards, things that are some way

:21:22.:21:26.

below that picture, I do not think they can win a bidding war with the

:21:26.:21:29.

below that picture, I do not think Labour Party. It is about borrowing

:21:29.:21:36.

against a party that stands for the rectitude at a macro economic

:21:36.:21:37.

against a party that stands for the It is about getting the

:21:37.:21:39.

conversation back to where it It is about getting the

:21:39.:21:43.

before the Labour conference, which is unemployment, GDP growth and the

:21:43.:21:49.

warming economic picture. That does not pay energy bills. Does not

:21:49.:21:54.

sound that the Tories have anything not pay energy bills. Does not

:21:54.:22:00.

to counter the price freeze. -- it does not sound. They have had a

:22:00.:22:04.

week to think about a great attack line and they do not add anything.

:22:04.:22:09.

They have just said, the lights will go out. Now they're saying, it

:22:09.:22:11.

will not the credibility test. Ed Miliband

:22:11.:22:31.

said, if there were a big spike in energy prices, he would not be able

:22:31.:22:36.

to keep his freeze in those circumstances.

:22:36.:22:44.

to keep his freeze in those credibility test. It was

:22:44.:22:45.

to keep his freeze in those politically acute announcement but

:22:45.:22:45.

it is about credibility. Being seen as serious and grown-up is worth

:22:45.:22:49.

it is about credibility. Being seen more than any burst of popularity.

:22:49.:22:52.

My worry about the announcement is more than any burst of popularity.

:22:52.:22:58.

with the election campaign, it begins to lose credibility, begins

:22:58.:23:06.

to seem a banana republic. It looks a lot less wise than it did last

:23:06.:23:11.

week. I disagree. Every time energy bills go up and they will continue

:23:12.:23:16.

to go up, it will be a reminder of how much people are being hit in

:23:16.:23:21.

the pockets. People know by energy prices are going up. There is a

:23:21.:23:25.

structural change in the world that was not there before - China and

:23:26.:23:30.

India. These energy companies may be making huge profit but, at the

:23:30.:23:35.

end of the day, what is driving up the cost of fuel is China and India.

:23:35.:23:42.

Ed Miliband, great man that he is, I am not sure he can take on the

:23:42.:23:47.

people Sammir on that one. How dare you! -- the People's Army. Ed

:23:47.:23:53.

Miliband came out fighting at Labour's Conference in Brighton

:23:53.:23:56.

last week. Dogged by criticism over the summer of his leadership style

:23:56.:23:59.

and lack of policies, Mr Miliband tried to demonstrate his strength

:23:59.:24:02.

of character with a series of bold announcements, and attempted to

:24:02.:24:04.

position himself on the side of ordinary Brits. The Labour leader

:24:04.:24:11.

told party members he would stand up to the strong and take on the

:24:11.:24:13.

vested interests that hold back our up to the strong and take on the

:24:13.:24:17.

economy. In a speech in which he jokingly referred to himself as an

:24:17.:24:21.

action hero, Mr Miliband promised to switch the forthcoming business

:24:21.:24:24.

action hero, Mr Miliband promised tax cut from large firms to smaller

:24:24.:24:28.

businesses. He said he would force big firms to train at an apprentice

:24:28.:24:32.

every time they bring in a worker from outside the EU. He hinted that

:24:32.:24:37.

increasing the minimum wage would be increased. He bowed to take on

:24:37.:24:44.

developers with a use it or lose it threat to landowners and pledged to

:24:44.:24:49.

build 200,000 homes each year by 2020. He promised to freeze energy

:24:49.:24:55.

prices and reset the energy market. The next Labour government will

:24:55.:24:59.

freeze gas and electricity prices until the start of 2017. That

:24:59.:25:06.

provoked a rash of headlines - hailing the return of red Ed macro.

:25:06.:25:12.

It has also given him a spike in the polls. And Labour's Shadow

:25:12.:25:14.

Energy Secretary Caroline Flint joins me now for the Sunday

:25:14.:25:16.

Interview. Ed Miliband says, our energy market

:25:16.:25:30.

is broken and does not work. In what way is that market to date

:25:30.:25:35.

different from the one Labour left behind in 2010? We have six

:25:35.:25:42.

companies that dominate the energy sector. It is the same. They

:25:42.:25:49.

generate energy, and sell it on to us. What we recognise and Ed

:25:49.:25:53.

Miliband recognised when he was Secretary of State and asked for

:25:54.:25:55.

more information from the company Secretary of State and asked for

:25:55.:25:59.

is on hold serve costs and profits, all the things we have done to

:25:59.:26:03.

mitigate against that in terms of a warm front programme and everything

:26:03.:26:06.

else has not dealt with the fundamental problem that the

:26:06.:26:11.

Horsell market is too secretive and it is too much about such supply. -

:26:11.:26:16.

- the wholesale market. We have been raising with the Government in

:26:16.:26:18.

- the wholesale market. We have a co-operative way the argument for

:26:18.:26:25.

resetting the market. It has got worse in terms of speed at which

:26:25.:26:31.

prices have gone up. Labour put wholesale and retail together. It

:26:31.:26:37.

was the start this dates back to Margaret Thatcher and the

:26:37.:26:40.

privatisation. We took some reforms to reset the market. We have

:26:40.:26:45.

realised it was not working and it was broken and we need to reset it.

:26:45.:26:50.

Ed Miliband will be the first to say we did not do enough from 2005

:26:50.:26:54.

onwards. Let's have a look at what happened to energy prices under the

:26:54.:26:59.

Labour government. Electricity up 67%, gas up 139%. Overall prices up

:26:59.:27:08.

by 48%. The market was broken and the Government as well. From 2005,

:27:08.:27:14.

we saw prices biking as wholesale prices went up. The tick action on

:27:14.:27:21.

the one Front programme, decent homes for social housing. -- we

:27:21.:27:28.

took action on per warm front programme. Trying to do things

:27:28.:27:32.

around social obligations needs to be looked at. Gas and electricity

:27:32.:27:38.

bills are high partially as a consequence of the market you

:27:38.:27:42.

presided over but as a consequence of Labour policy. Beds have a look

:27:42.:27:48.

at the breakdown of dual fuel - gas and electricity bill. -- let's have

:27:48.:27:55.

a look. The supply costs of getting it to us and so on. The policies

:27:55.:27:59.

a look. The supply costs of getting that were introduced by your

:27:59.:28:03.

government - Green levies - are adding almost 10% to has told

:28:03.:28:11.

energy bills. £112 on average bill of 1188. You have put the bill up.

:28:11.:28:20.

Eight -- social and green obligations amount to £112. That

:28:20.:28:28.

helps the poorest insulate homes. Overwhelmingly, looking at your

:28:28.:28:29.

helps the poorest insulate homes. graph and the figures I have,

:28:29.:28:34.

wholesale costs are worth more than half. What we have seen, based on

:28:34.:28:41.

figures we now have, in Eni macro, a wholesale costs fell by 39% and

:28:41.:28:48.

that was not reflected in our bills. Do you have plans to do anything

:28:48.:28:54.

about the £112? If you took that off, you could cut bills by 10%

:28:54.:29:00.

tomorrow. Or if you were in power. It is important that restimulate

:29:00.:29:04.

the opportunity to grow clean energy. It -- we stimulate. If we

:29:04.:29:11.

do not have clean energy, we will be beholden for ever-more to fossil

:29:11.:29:15.

do not have clean energy, we will fuels that are depleting. It will

:29:15.:29:20.

create jobs and bring in investment will start in the last few years,

:29:20.:29:24.

we have seen investment in renewable energy half. -- in

:29:24.:29:30.

investment. If I could go back to competition in the markets,

:29:30.:29:34.

whatever advance there are, looking at whether the money raised through

:29:34.:29:39.

energy companies to deliver energy efficiency, is that doing as well

:29:39.:29:43.

as it might? Could it be better delivered by another agency? They

:29:43.:29:48.

are fair questions. We need to get ahead of that and look at the

:29:48.:29:53.

market. Can we make the market will competitive make sure when there is

:29:53.:29:56.

downward pressure on wholesale prices, that is reflected on our

:29:57.:30:02.

bills? That is the bigger picture argument. Also the freeze to help

:30:02.:30:04.

people during that period. As you complain about the energy

:30:04.:30:17.

prices, it was as a result of your actions. Ed Miliband introduced the

:30:17.:30:20.

climate change act. He admitted prices would have to rise to pay for

:30:20.:30:27.

decarbonisation. He said, we are going to minimise the costs as much

:30:27.:30:28.

decarbonisation. He said, we are as possible, but it is true there is

:30:28.:30:32.

not a low-cost energy future out there. It is important that we

:30:32.:30:37.

address the pressures on bills, but also recognise that if we are going

:30:37.:30:39.

to build a better future where we can have more home-grown British

:30:40.:30:42.

energy and, in the long-term, cheaper, we need to invest in

:30:42.:30:47.

renewables. Truth is it is about the market. I acknowledge I acknowledge

:30:47.:30:51.

eyes what you say about the 112. I am not going to disagree. But

:30:51.:30:59.

wholesale prices have fallen. They fell in 2009, we got a reduction in

:30:59.:31:08.

bills of 5%. Which are saying that the big companies are overcharging

:31:08.:31:12.

customers. We are seeing profits going up, but we haven't seen the

:31:12.:31:16.

amount of investment suggested by those profits coming through. But

:31:16.:31:22.

that £125 is going to get worse, because your leader said in his

:31:22.:31:27.

speech in Brighton that Labour will have a world leading commitment in

:31:27.:31:31.

Government to take out all carbon from energy generation by 2030. That

:31:31.:31:35.

is not that far away. By 2030, no more coal generation, no more gas

:31:35.:31:41.

generation, only much more expensive nuclear and much more expensive

:31:41.:31:42.

generation, only much more expensive renewables. It cannot be done

:31:42.:31:47.

without bills going up even further? Hang on a second. The 2030 target to

:31:47.:31:52.

remove carbon from the electricity supply, we have said we should set a

:31:52.:31:56.

target now because, actually, it gives us more time to plan ahead and

:31:56.:32:00.

also allows investment to come in. There is plenty of people with cash

:32:00.:32:03.

in their pockets not want to invest what they are stalling because of

:32:03.:32:07.

the Government's hesitancy over this. I just want a clarification

:32:07.:32:12.

here. My understanding is that your commitment is to get rid of all

:32:12.:32:16.

carbon from power generation by 2030? From the letters city supply.

:32:16.:32:22.

Only electricity. We will still have gas? We have always said we will

:32:22.:32:26.

need gas for decades to come. So we are clear for that. But you will be

:32:26.:32:36.

increasingly dependent on expensive nuclear. EDF are currently demanding

:32:37.:32:40.

twice the market price to build plans in this country. Renewables

:32:40.:32:47.

are two or three times the market price. Bills are going up under your

:32:47.:32:51.

policies, and the coalition policies? On nuclear, we took a

:32:51.:32:56.

decision under the Labour Government that we needed to revitalise the

:32:56.:33:00.

sector, to hit targets on clean that we needed to revitalise the

:33:00.:33:05.

energy and make sure it can do the heavy lifting. The Government at the

:33:05.:33:08.

present time are engaged in heavy lifting. The Government at the

:33:08.:33:11.

discussions with EDF about what the strike price should be. It's

:33:11.:33:14.

important, because I don't know what it's going to be, it is important

:33:14.:33:18.

that stands up to scrutiny in terms of value for money. At the same

:33:18.:33:19.

that stands up to scrutiny in terms time, I go back to market reforms.

:33:19.:33:25.

We will not just have a target for difference, the jargon for nuclear,

:33:25.:33:32.

we will have it for renewables as well. That is even more important,

:33:32.:33:36.

that we have a transparent market so that we can have a robust target

:33:36.:33:42.

price to be judged against. Michael Gove recognised in question time

:33:42.:33:46.

that the market was not working. The Telegraph said in its editorial,

:33:46.:33:50.

they used the term cosy cartel. We have former advisers to David

:33:50.:33:56.

Cameron saying something needs to be done. I'm surprised David Cameron

:33:56.:34:00.

doesn't acknowledge that. You are going to freeze prices for 20 months

:34:00.:34:06.

and will come up with a new regulator to replace Ofgem. Will

:34:06.:34:07.

that regulator have the power to regulator to replace Ofgem. Will

:34:07.:34:11.

control prices? The new energy watchdog will have a strategy

:34:11.:34:17.

responsibility to monitor the wholesale costs and prices, which it

:34:17.:34:20.

currently doesn't have at the moment. As a result of that it will

:34:20.:34:24.

currently doesn't have at the have the power that, if the

:34:24.:34:28.

wholesale prices fall, it can force the energy companies, if they don't,

:34:28.:34:34.

to pass on reductions in bills to consumers. It will not have what we

:34:34.:34:37.

to pass on reductions in bills to see in some parts of the European

:34:37.:34:41.

Union, 15 of them, that have a variety of price controls that set

:34:41.:34:45.

things at below inflation and what have you. France, Spain, Italy. It

:34:45.:34:50.

will not do that. Why? Because we are looking at a temporary price

:34:50.:34:54.

freeze to reflect a reduction in are looking at a temporary price

:34:54.:34:57.

wholesale prices, to give the British public respite from ever

:34:57.:35:01.

climbing bills while they get reforms into the market. At the end

:35:01.:35:05.

of this, what we want is a more competitive market that can be

:35:05.:35:06.

trusted, that is more transparent. competitive market that can be

:35:07.:35:11.

We do believe it is right that, actually, we need a regulator that

:35:12.:35:16.

has much more of a role in making sure the market is managed

:35:16.:35:19.

effectively. Are you accusing energy companies of profiteering? EU I am

:35:19.:35:29.

accusing them of overcharging and not passing on wholesale reduction

:35:29.:35:32.

costs to the customer in a fair way. Of making Carter -- cartel profits?

:35:32.:35:44.

I do believe that the level of profits they have passed on to their

:35:44.:35:49.

shareholders is high, compared to the reductions they could have

:35:49.:35:52.

provided to consumers. Let's look at the evidence for that. Here are the

:35:52.:35:59.

British owned companies, SSE and Centrica. In the last fiscal year

:35:59.:36:03.

they made combined earnings of £4 billion. But they invested £3

:36:03.:36:10.

billion. The remaining money went to debt servicing and paying dividends,

:36:10.:36:15.

which go into pension funds. Where in these figures is the

:36:15.:36:18.

profiteering? My figures that I got through their reporting to Ofgem and

:36:18.:36:28.

work done by other organisations, Witch and others, it shows that in

:36:28.:36:32.

Centrica's case they have something like 8% return in profit margins on

:36:32.:36:38.

the retail side. That goes up to 24% on the generation side. They have

:36:38.:36:40.

passed on, in terms of profits, something I70 4% through evidence to

:36:40.:36:46.

shareholders. But these figures don't show that. They have invested

:36:46.:36:54.

£3 billion. I am reporting what has been reported by Ofgem. Ofgem has

:36:54.:36:59.

not accused them of property in. They may well be, but we don't have

:36:59.:37:03.

the evidence. I would accuse Ofgem of not doing the job they should be

:37:03.:37:06.

doing, and they have held back from tackling the issue. It is

:37:06.:37:12.

acknowledged, across the sector, across the big six, something like

:37:12.:37:16.

50% of profits has gone over to dividends to shareholders. In

:37:16.:37:21.

Centrica's case it is 74%. On the Centrica example, even though they

:37:21.:37:24.

have had the highest profit margins, they have invested the least. It is

:37:24.:37:27.

have had the highest profit margins, fair to question. We are running out

:37:27.:37:34.

of time. None of us really know what the true price of energy is that is

:37:34.:37:39.

Labour's policy to reform his crucial. That is because he merged

:37:39.:37:42.

the market and we can't tell the difference. If they continue putting

:37:42.:37:46.

prices up, even after your price freeze, if they don't invest in a

:37:46.:37:51.

way that they do, do you rule out wholesale nationalisation?

:37:51.:37:54.

Absolutely. I want a more competitive market and that is why

:37:54.:37:59.

we are resetting it. You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up

:37:59.:38:02.

in just over 20 minutes I will be looking at the week ahead with our

:38:02.:38:03.

political panel Hello, and on Sunday Politics Wales:

:38:03.:38:17.

As the Conservatives gather in Manchester, we'll hear from their

:38:17.:38:21.

Assembly leader, Andrew RT Davies. And a warning that jobs could go and

:38:21.:38:25.

stores close if the Welsh Government decides to cut business rate relief

:38:25.:38:29.

for charity shops. Joining me throughout today's

:38:29.:38:31.

programme are two Assembly members - Plaid Cymru's Jocelyn Davies and the

:38:31.:38:37.

Conservative, William Graham. Good morning to you both. Let's talk

:38:37.:38:42.

about an article in one of the newspapers this morning from the

:38:42.:38:45.

Chief Constable of Cumbria police who says that all class a drugs

:38:45.:38:50.

should be decriminalised. I remember a few years ago you had

:38:50.:38:57.

Lemmy talking about the dangers of drugs. Drugs cause untold misery and

:38:57.:39:06.

death. You must examine it in a very objective way. It has to be examined

:39:06.:39:12.

once again but in a very detailed form, perhaps with the odd pilots to

:39:12.:39:16.

see if it works. It isn't the first time we have heard this. I think

:39:16.:39:27.

there were similar calls. Yes, he wet even further and called for

:39:27.:39:34.

heroin to be provided on the NHS. I agree with William. This is

:39:34.:39:39.

something I wouldn't dismiss but we need to look very carefully at what

:39:39.:39:43.

the impacts would be and I think pilots would be a good idea. We will

:39:43.:39:47.

leave it there for now. As we have heard already, the

:39:47.:39:50.

Conservatives are holding their annual conference in Manchester. And

:39:50.:39:52.

as we continue our conference coverage, their Assembly leader,

:39:52.:39:55.

Andrew RT Davies, has been talking to our correspondent, David Cornock.

:39:55.:39:59.

Hello from Manchester and a very important conference, this, for the

:39:59.:40:05.

Conservatives. It is 20 months before the general election in 2015.

:40:05.:40:10.

What impact will it have in Wales? Let's talk to Andrew RT Davies will

:40:10.:40:17.

stop -- Andrew RT Davies. There was a report a year ago that Wales

:40:17.:40:22.

should have tax evading powers. We're waiting for response. What

:40:22.:40:29.

does that say about the conservative attitudes to devolution? Your Mac

:40:29.:40:35.

automatically, the Conservatives in London delivered legislative powers

:40:35.:40:37.

to the Assembly. We have full executive responsibility and can

:40:37.:40:45.

make primary legislation. I believe a couple of weeks waiting for silk

:40:45.:40:51.

will not make a difference. The couple of weeks? It is often now. --

:40:51.:41:00.

autumn now. I can fully appreciate those implications. We're very close

:41:00.:41:04.

by population along the land border with England and we have to look at

:41:04.:41:07.

those things across the whole of the United Kingdom. We have all signed

:41:07.:41:13.

up to making sure there is accountability and responsibility to

:41:13.:41:15.

the amount spent in Wales. This is taxpayers money. What we have is a

:41:16.:41:20.

Government in Cardiff Bay that fritters valuable tax payers money

:41:20.:41:26.

away, and has no accountability for the way it is raised. We will get

:41:26.:41:31.

there, but it's important that when the packages delivered it is

:41:31.:41:34.

complete and delivers the responsibility we all want to see.

:41:34.:41:39.

Nick Clegg says the conservative half of the Coalition is blocking

:41:39.:41:46.

for the devolution on principle. Do you believe everything the Deputy

:41:46.:41:51.

Prime Minister says? He is in Coalition with your party. What I am

:41:51.:41:59.

talking about is the Welsh agenda, and that is putting real change to

:41:59.:42:03.

Wales and making sure that people know there is an alternative. We put

:42:03.:42:08.

various policies forward in the last 12 months to invest in Wales, get

:42:08.:42:12.

finance for business, we generate high streets, talk about taxation to

:42:12.:42:18.

stimulate the Welsh economy, bringing back grammar schools. There

:42:18.:42:25.

is an appetite for solutions to the problems people in Wales face. I

:42:25.:42:31.

grammar schools the solution? When an idea was put forward in

:42:31.:42:35.

Westminster, the minister involved was sacked. That is Westminster, not

:42:35.:42:42.

Cardiff. That is what evolution is about. I could go on, but your

:42:42.:42:50.

listeners would forcefully. -- your viewers would fall asleep. These are

:42:50.:42:54.

the issues that we can bring forward to the public to for change after 13

:42:54.:43:00.

years of stagnation. We had the dead hand of labour around the throat of

:43:00.:43:03.

the Welsh economy. We need a change in Wales and Conservatives are not

:43:03.:43:13.

for the fight. -- out from a fight. Any discussions about getting the

:43:13.:43:17.

budget through? Any discussions with other parties about forming an

:43:17.:43:22.

alliance to get what you want? We have outlined our priorities, which

:43:22.:43:26.

is making sure the Welsh NHS has the resources it needs to make sure the

:43:27.:43:30.

people get back on the road of recovery when they are struck with

:43:30.:43:33.

illness so they can get back to employment and being in avoidable

:43:33.:43:37.

and the earning money for the economy and themselves. It is

:43:37.:43:41.

disappointing on the eve of the conference that I can see an

:43:41.:43:46.

extension to the drugs fund that will be an official to people in

:43:46.:43:51.

England to have a diagnosis, and yet in Wales, we have a failure to

:43:51.:43:59.

support this policy. Many people are suffering as a result, and I hope

:43:59.:44:03.

the political parties will rally around because of the NHS. You

:44:04.:44:08.

haven't had a discussion with other parties got you might -- with other

:44:08.:44:15.

parties quicken my there are always discussions going on. We have mapped

:44:15.:44:20.

out a position. The First Minister has the responsibility to map out

:44:20.:44:25.

his territory. It is interesting, the future of the Welsh

:44:25.:44:28.

Conservatives, or cause you have carved out a distinctive position.

:44:28.:44:32.

But that position is so distinctive it is hard to see you as a potential

:44:32.:44:37.

party of Government given you are unlikely to win a majority. I

:44:37.:44:43.

disagree. We need to put forward a progressive agenda in 2016. We have

:44:43.:44:49.

started doing that as the position of the largest opposition. I hope

:44:49.:44:53.

other parties want to see a prosperous economy, better education

:44:53.:44:58.

standards, and a bust NHS delivering for the people of Wales. People will

:44:58.:45:04.

be all to sign up for that. We are a centre-right party proud of our

:45:04.:45:07.

roots and traditions and proud to be Welsh Conservatives.

:45:07.:45:13.

Jocelyn Davies, let's touch on budget and alterations -- budget

:45:13.:45:19.

negotiations. You have been involved in that. Are you aware of

:45:19.:45:23.

discussions ongoing with the Conservatives? I am not. I do not

:45:24.:45:30.

think we learned much in that interview about whether he had

:45:30.:45:34.

anything to give away or not. I don't think the Tories are middle

:45:34.:45:38.

shooting with Labour. It will be interesting to see if they do. We

:45:38.:45:43.

decided to join in an alliance with the Liberal Democrats to get a

:45:43.:45:46.

better deal out of the negotiations because in the past Labour has been

:45:46.:45:50.

able to play one of us off against the other. The cant do that this

:45:50.:45:59.

year. -- they cannot do that. You don't think they will have to settle

:45:59.:46:05.

for chicken, as Andrew Davies said? I don't think so. You wouldn't look

:46:05.:46:12.

at it in that light. We decided we would join forces with the Liberal

:46:12.:46:15.

Democrats to get a better deal all round. It will prevent labour from

:46:15.:46:22.

playing one of against the other. The other alternative is Andrew RT

:46:22.:46:24.

Davies and I don't think they will do that. That is not a possibility,

:46:25.:46:31.

is it? Your party will be outside these negotiations and unable to

:46:31.:46:34.

influence the budget. It doesn't work like that. They may well have

:46:34.:46:42.

talked to us and we have talked to them in the past. We had a

:46:42.:46:45.

negotiation previously that fell down in the end. What is good is

:46:45.:46:51.

that opposition parties are going to get a decent amount out of the

:46:51.:46:55.

Labour Government when it was previously very small. Jocelyn

:46:55.:47:00.

alluded to an alliance with the Lib Dems. You will know all about that

:47:00.:47:06.

as a conservative. David Carter not asked Andrew RT Davies -- our

:47:06.:47:15.

correspondent was bidding to Andrew RT Davies. You think it is important

:47:15.:47:19.

that we see the Government response to Silks and other later? There has

:47:19.:47:29.

to be proper consultations on tax-raising powers and even if

:47:29.:47:33.

granted there must be a referendum. What about the delay? I am

:47:33.:47:39.

disappointed. Should any of these measures -- measures require

:47:39.:47:45.

legislation before the election, we're running out of time. Other

:47:45.:47:50.

Conservatives at Westminster holding that back? They have not denied it.

:47:50.:47:57.

I am assuming that probably is correct. That makes it difficult for

:47:58.:48:03.

due in Wales because you support these recommendations, don't you?

:48:03.:48:08.

This is what happens in a devolved settlement. We don't completely

:48:08.:48:12.

follow the Westminster line, we have our own policies. This is one of

:48:12.:48:16.

them. We would press for the right solution and not rush into it. The

:48:16.:48:23.

key message from this conference, we understand, 18 months before the

:48:23.:48:26.

election, what you want to see from David Cameron? The housing proposals

:48:26.:48:35.

are worthwhile looking at again. There are lots of people desperate

:48:35.:48:38.

to own a house and this will enable that to occur. That is good. We

:48:38.:48:46.

won't have it in Wales, that is bad. What you make of David Cameron's

:48:46.:48:51.

announcement on the help to buy? Saving the deposit when house pros

:48:51.:48:57.

at -- house prices are so high detail is a lot of people. If you

:48:57.:49:02.

need 20,000 £30,000 to get down, even though you can afford a

:49:02.:49:05.

mortgage, we need something helps first-time buyers. We need to be

:49:05.:49:11.

careful not to drive up prices by providing it to easily. There is a

:49:11.:49:15.

fine balance to be struck. I would be cautious about it.

:49:15.:49:19.

We will leave it there for now. The biggest charity retailer in

:49:19.:49:22.

Wales, Tenovus, has abandoned plans to open 14 new shops over the next

:49:22.:49:26.

two years as the Welsh Government considers cutting business rate

:49:26.:49:28.

relief for charities. It's warning that jobs and stores could close has

:49:28.:49:32.

been echoed by the British Heart Foundation Cymru which says almost a

:49:32.:49:35.

third of its shops are under threat if ministers go ahead with the

:49:35.:49:38.

proposals next week. Here's our business correspondent, Brian

:49:38.:49:45.

Meechan. From fighting cancer at home to

:49:45.:49:48.

fighting poverty across the globe and much else in between. Shops have

:49:48.:49:53.

been a useful tool for many charities, selling on donations to

:49:53.:49:56.

raise monitor for the wider objectives. They are a familiar

:49:56.:50:02.

sight across high streets in Wales, even more so in these troubled

:50:02.:50:06.

economic times. But our charity shops a vital part of local

:50:06.:50:12.

communities or have too many of them opened up, stifling business for

:50:12.:50:16.

commercial stores? Charity shops which pay reduced business rates

:50:16.:50:21.

have been said to drive up business rates and that commercial shops out

:50:21.:50:26.

of business. Not so, say campaigners. There is no evidence to

:50:26.:50:36.

show that charity shops are one of the causes of decline on the high

:50:36.:50:44.

street. The Government has been looking at cutting the relief on

:50:44.:50:48.

rates from 80 to 50% unwashed shops. Abolishing relief completely for the

:50:48.:50:54.

guest shops to pay full rates. And limiting the amount of charity shops

:50:54.:50:59.

in an area. This charity store in Newport is one of the 34 in Wales.

:50:59.:51:04.

As a large furniture store, it would lose rates relief and would have to

:51:04.:51:09.

pay the full amount. This would threaten the viability of our shops

:51:09.:51:18.

in Wales. We calculated a possible closure of around ten shops. That

:51:18.:51:22.

means a loss of jobs. Over 30 jobs of managerial staff. Proposals have

:51:22.:51:28.

already had an impact according to the Chief Executive of the cancer

:51:28.:51:33.

charity, Tenovus. It has abandoned plans to open 14 shops in the next

:51:33.:51:38.

two years. I am completely baffled by the proposals. It makes me

:51:38.:51:44.

incredibly sad. What we have got to remember here that Tenovus is that

:51:44.:51:47.

our Shield holders are cancer piece in which -- our shareholders are

:51:47.:51:55.

cancer patients and families. The money we would lose if we stood

:51:55.:52:02.

still now would pay for two cancer support advisers. They see patients

:52:02.:52:08.

day in and day out in outreach centres and communities so the

:52:08.:52:12.

impact is large for us. Many small retailers want a level playing field

:52:12.:52:17.

with charities. The Federation of Small Businesses it says it has to

:52:17.:52:21.

be kept in context. It is an important subject that has an impact

:52:21.:52:25.

on our members. I don't think you can blame charity shops for every

:52:25.:52:32.

walk that the high street is having. It is clearly about out-of-town

:52:32.:52:34.

shopping and that more of us want to shop online. The Welsh Government

:52:34.:52:40.

will outline plans next week. Liberal Democrats and some Welsh

:52:40.:52:43.

charities have told us that they have legal advice that say ministers

:52:43.:52:46.

don't have those powers unless they change the law fast. Many charities

:52:46.:52:51.

argue that there driven -- if they are driven off the high streets,

:52:51.:52:55.

they wouldn't be replaced by small retailers but rather by payday loan

:52:55.:52:57.

companies, pawnbrokers and empty shops.

:52:58.:53:03.

Both of your parties have policies alluding to business rate relief

:53:03.:53:10.

scrapping business rates up to a certain level. What do you expect

:53:10.:53:17.

from the Minister this week? If she acts on the recommendations, she

:53:17.:53:19.

will register relief available charity shops. I visited that shop

:53:19.:53:26.

in Newport in the summer, and I think in terms of other traders, so

:53:26.:53:29.

long as they are not selling new goods, that is a major issue. When

:53:29.:53:33.

you are selling new goods, you have the benefit of rate relief and the

:53:33.:53:38.

majority of shop workers are volunteers. They do occupy large

:53:38.:53:47.

stores. The rates on that are hundreds of thousands idea in

:53:47.:53:51.

Newport alone. No-one is trying to drive charity shops from the high

:53:51.:53:54.

street. They are very necessary part of that in many towns. Retailing is

:53:54.:53:58.

changing and we have to take account of that. We must make our policies

:53:58.:54:03.

in June to make sure there are more longer these huge numbers of shops,

:54:03.:54:09.

that are open, sorry, and are not just left vacant. There is an issue

:54:09.:54:15.

that if the rate relief was changed and charity shops didn't open in

:54:15.:54:20.

towns or closed down, they wouldn't necessarily be filled by businesses

:54:20.:54:25.

anyway. I would fear that those businesses would then be empty. Even

:54:25.:54:29.

though other traders might think they are in competition, more and

:54:29.:54:32.

more empty premises mean less and less fruitful. It would mean and

:54:32.:54:37.

detrimental effect on other shopkeepers because if no-one wants

:54:37.:54:42.

to go -- no-one wants to go to a town when half the shops and empty.

:54:42.:54:46.

We all like charity shops. The other side of the coin is that those

:54:46.:54:50.

charities do very good work. If they don't have the prophets, who will

:54:50.:54:54.

fund the bill for those good works? I don't think the Government will.

:54:54.:54:58.

It is a fine balance. Maybe there will be a compromise of some sort.

:54:58.:55:02.

Perhaps if they are selling brand-new goods rather than

:55:02.:55:04.

second-hand goods where there is definite competition. You have been

:55:04.:55:13.

lobbied quite strongly on this. From who? From the charities directly and

:55:13.:55:21.

small businesses. I have been lobbied by members of the public

:55:21.:55:24.

supporting the charitable works that charities do. I think they put a

:55:24.:55:29.

very good adamant forward. Who will carry out his good works grit --

:55:29.:55:37.

good works but you might we have from charities who said he might not

:55:37.:55:40.

open new shops summer might close. That will have an impact on the high

:55:40.:55:46.

streets. There is no doubt about it. There is no clear solution. We have

:55:46.:55:51.

to take action, and I suspect we will see some reduction in rates

:55:51.:55:58.

relief will stop -- Rachel relief. In times of recession and if you

:55:58.:56:05.

look at Newport, it is a town in decline. It is a simple solution but

:56:05.:56:13.

a complex situation which I don't think is the answer. Your party

:56:13.:56:18.

released a document about your vision for the high street,

:56:18.:56:23.

introducing free parking. Our high streets under threat because of

:56:23.:56:25.

out-of-town shopping and those kinds of things? They are under threat

:56:25.:56:31.

because the way in which people shop is different. If you do not have

:56:31.:56:35.

good parking or free parking, a cross-section of traders, including

:56:35.:56:43.

independence, we have an over abundance of retail. There are huge

:56:43.:56:49.

numbers of small shops and that has got to change the way we look at

:56:49.:56:54.

more residential redevelopment of that kind. If there are too many

:56:54.:56:59.

shops, leave it to the market, let them close down? That does happen.

:56:59.:57:06.

There might be the generation. We need to decide what town centres are

:57:06.:57:10.

for. When it's look at our behaviour, all of us, and not go

:57:10.:57:15.

into the town we are not going to the town centres. We cannot get what

:57:15.:57:21.

we want when they go there. That is why shoppers often bareback on the

:57:21.:57:25.

high street. We will be back with you shortly.

:57:25.:57:27.

Time now for a quick look back at some of the political stories of the

:57:27.:57:40.

week in 60 seconds. Conservative MP called for Gordon

:57:40.:57:44.

Brown's former press officer Damien McBride to be investigated by the

:57:44.:57:46.

police and Civil Service ready later. The MP said Mister McBride

:57:46.:57:52.

admitted in his book that he accessed the former Prime

:57:52.:57:54.

Minister's e-mail account without authorisation. He said this was an

:57:54.:58:02.

abuse of the computer misuse act. Assembly members passed a new law

:58:02.:58:05.

aimed at protecting the rights of mobile home residents. The Liberal

:58:05.:58:10.

Democrat MP said his Private member 's Bill would help residents who

:58:10.:58:15.

have suffered intimidating behaviour.

:58:15.:58:20.

Paul Murphy opposed the plan to introduce a Welsh name to the

:58:20.:58:30.

village of Varteg. Locals said a new name would mock the village. The MP

:58:30.:58:35.

said moves like this would fuel resentment.

:58:35.:58:48.

Jocelyn Davies, we have about Peter Black's Lord Mayor on mobile homes.

:58:48.:58:58.

An observation by you on that? There was something in the bill which I

:58:58.:59:03.

think is very interesting. And the definition of family. We have

:59:03.:59:08.

spouses and civil partnerships and injuring family relationships in the

:59:08.:59:13.

same category. No discrimination, none superior to the other. I am

:59:13.:59:17.

proud of the other. I am proud Welsh Government supported that and that

:59:17.:59:21.

every Assembly member was keen to do that so we have a new definition.

:59:21.:59:25.

First in the British Isles in this legislation. That links into your

:59:25.:59:31.

party's announcement only married persons tax allowance. Perhaps they

:59:31.:59:35.

could have looked at this legislation. It is a very good

:59:35.:59:41.

definition. I trust Westminster will look more closely and interviews

:59:41.:59:46.

more legislation on that basis. Both of you represent Southeast Wales. We

:59:46.:59:51.

have been mention of Varteg there. You think this is a nonsense, do

:59:51.:59:58.

you? If local people don't want it, why impose it? Everyone knows it as

:59:58.:00:06.

Varteg. Why embarrass the people was a stupid name? The villagers of

:00:06.:00:12.

course wouldn't mind a Welsh place name, they just don't want that one.

:00:12.:00:16.

I wonder if we could have got with something else and given it another

:00:16.:00:19.

name in Welsh they would have been more comfortable with. They not

:00:19.:00:22.

objecting to the Welsh language, they just want -- they just do not

:00:22.:00:30.

want that what. Paul Murphy said it is embarrassing to local people.

:00:30.:00:34.

Have you spoken to people there? People have been in touch. They

:00:34.:00:38.

thought they would get adverse political -- publicity, and is only

:00:38.:00:48.

have. How does this move forward? With difficulty, I suspect. It has

:00:48.:00:53.

been Varteg for germination is I do not see a need for real change. --

:00:53.:01:01.

it has been Varteg for generations. Lovely to see you. That is all we

:01:01.:01:03.

have time for this week. and Emily Thornberry. Back to you,

:01:03.:01:04.

Andrew. So, we'll David Cameron's marriage

:01:04.:01:16.

tax break win over voters? How will So, we'll David Cameron's marriage

:01:16.:01:24.

the Tories react to Ed Miliband's conference initiatives? And what is

:01:24.:01:27.

UKIP leader Nigel FarageFarage up to conference initiatives? And what is

:01:27.:01:39.

with the Tories in Manchester? Joining us now is UKIP's Diane

:01:39.:01:42.

James. She came second in the easterly by-election.

:01:42.:01:49.

On this business of a possible Tory- UKIP pact, in a general election,

:01:49.:01:56.

let's see what David Cameron had to say about that earlier. I am not

:01:56.:02:02.

looking for a packed. I think we need to give people a clear choice

:02:02.:02:05.

at the general election. The British economy has turned a corner. We are

:02:05.:02:09.

on the right track, we are seeing more jobs, new businesses, we are

:02:09.:02:12.

beginning to get things moving again. Do you want to stick with us,

:02:12.:02:18.

delivering an economy for hard-working people, or do you want

:02:18.:02:20.

to put it at risk with Ed Miliband hard-working people, or do you want

:02:20.:02:25.

and his crazy plans to tax business out of existence? That was the Prime

:02:25.:02:29.

Minister on the Sunday Politics. Is there any appetite on the UKIP side

:02:29.:02:34.

for a pact? In my experience, discussions around the country, I

:02:34.:02:39.

would say no. It's being discussed, then? EU no. It has not come up. It

:02:39.:02:50.

is the media that is pushing this. It has reflected what has happened

:02:50.:02:54.

with the parties since the conference season began. Labour are

:02:54.:02:59.

trying to reclaim what I would call the traditionalist socialist

:02:59.:03:03.

position. I'm not sure what the Liberal Democrats or two, but the

:03:03.:03:06.

Conservatives are trying to react to the threat that UKIP represents.

:03:06.:03:09.

There is this element, the accusation they are lurching more to

:03:10.:03:15.

the right, which the media wants to interpret as them possibly being

:03:15.:03:18.

able to do some sort of pact with UKIP. Have you given any thought to

:03:18.:03:24.

what shape it would take? Not whatsoever. It is not on the radar.

:03:24.:03:27.

I have read comments, including individual such as Douglas

:03:27.:03:33.

Carswell, the Eurosceptics, that they might form a potential, let's

:03:33.:03:39.

call it, you know, cabinet. If there were UKIP members, I don't doubt

:03:39.:03:43.

that Nigel Farage would be one of them. But I would reiterate it is

:03:43.:03:46.

not discussions that are taking place. I am thinking more of an

:03:46.:03:52.

electoral pact, not a coalition. I have responded to that by saying,

:03:52.:03:57.

the moment, there are no ongoing discussions. There is certainly

:03:57.:04:00.

nothing that has been discussed at a constituency level or coming out of

:04:00.:04:04.

the national executive. You don't believe any constituencies are

:04:04.:04:07.

discussing this with Tory Eurosceptics? I am not privy to what

:04:07.:04:14.

all 360 constituencies might be discussing. All I can do is give you

:04:14.:04:18.

the example of the few I have seen and know it is not on the agenda.

:04:18.:04:24.

Without a pact, it is perfectly possible that you could fail to win

:04:24.:04:29.

a single seat at the next election, but put Ed Miliband into Downing

:04:29.:04:34.

Street? Categorically not. There are a number of seats out there that are

:04:34.:04:46.

very clear marginals, just like Eddy Izzard was. I believe there could be

:04:46.:04:58.

an MP -- just like Eastleigh was. If you take enough votes away from the

:04:58.:05:02.

Tories, if you make sure that Labour wins? I will go back to the comment

:05:02.:05:07.

I made. If you take Eastleigh as an example, a Liberal Democrat held

:05:07.:05:12.

seat, even after that result, does not mean that UKIP is suddenly going

:05:12.:05:17.

to be focusing on Tory seats. We are out there because people resonate

:05:17.:05:21.

with our message. For the Liberal Democrats to make it abundantly

:05:21.:05:23.

clear that they will not support a referendum, that they will not

:05:23.:05:27.

support any discussion on leaving the queue, that could be a big

:05:27.:05:31.

turn-off for voters. David Cameron says there is not going to be a

:05:31.:05:35.

pact, Diane James says there is not going to be one. There might be one

:05:35.:05:39.

or at a constituency level. But it seems clear to me that there will

:05:39.:05:43.

not be a national one. So, does David Cameron have a UKIP strategy?

:05:43.:05:48.

The only encouraging thing for UKIP's successful David Cameron is

:05:48.:05:50.

that their support is so enormous UKIP's successful David Cameron is

:05:50.:05:51.

that the moment that he would only UKIP's successful David Cameron is

:05:51.:05:55.

really need to win back maybe a third or a quarter of its to make a

:05:55.:05:58.

decisive difference to the Tory share of the vote in 2015. The

:05:58.:06:02.

question becomes, how much of that UKIP support is up for grabs? A poll

:06:02.:06:07.

last week suggested that 47% of current UKIP voters would consider

:06:07.:06:11.

voting Tory if it meant preventing Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister.

:06:11.:06:15.

That number goes up to 57% against the backdrop of an economic

:06:15.:06:18.

recovery. So, plausibly, there is quite a lot to play with. The

:06:18.:06:23.

secondary question is, what does David Cameron do to win over those

:06:23.:06:27.

people? He has tried a Europe will referendum and it didn't work. He

:06:27.:06:30.

tried travelling up his immigration policy and that didn't work. I

:06:31.:06:34.

wonder if it is time. You wait until the run-up to 2015, when they start

:06:34.:06:39.

to focus on the explicit choice between Ed Miliband and David

:06:39.:06:44.

Cameron, and that is what shifts a lot of UKIP support to David

:06:44.:06:48.

Cameron. We heard from William Hague earlier in the programme, the Tory

:06:48.:06:54.

line is that if you vote UKIP you could end up with Ed Miliband in

:06:54.:06:57.

Downing Street. That is the simple appeal, isn't it? Yes, and I think

:06:57.:07:01.

Downing Street. That is the simple Diane is right, I think the European

:07:01.:07:07.

elections will show a good showing for UKIP. It is deemed the one where

:07:08.:07:12.

you can play away. I think it will be hard for people to get excited

:07:12.:07:16.

about that, I think that bounce will fade away. In Eastleigh, they had a

:07:16.:07:21.

good ground game, that is difficult for UKIP, that don't have that

:07:21.:07:28.

machinery sorted. How are they going to fund that operation? But the UKIP

:07:28.:07:33.

bounce could fade away after the European elections. Even if they go

:07:33.:07:37.

down to 6% or 8% in a general election, they are still immensely

:07:37.:07:40.

dangerous to the Conservative Party. But there is really only two things

:07:40.:07:45.

David Cameron can do. One is to be boring and talk about helping people

:07:45.:07:49.

with their mortgage, helping with bread and butter issues. The second

:07:49.:07:54.

thing is, those European actions, he tends to the natural Conservative

:07:54.:07:57.

voters and says, you have had your fun, next year do you want me or Ed

:07:57.:08:01.

Miliband us your prime and? The real danger with David Cameron is saying,

:08:01.:08:05.

of course, there is not going to be a pact, the danger is you will get a

:08:05.:08:07.

of course, there is not going to be repeat of the 1977 election. John

:08:07.:08:13.

Major said, famously, do not bind my hands. A series of Conservative

:08:13.:08:17.

candidates said they would personally rule out membership of

:08:17.:08:22.

the euro, when the Conservative membership was wait and see. That

:08:22.:08:25.

looked like a Prime Minister not in charge of his party. The danger is

:08:25.:08:28.

you will get a repeat of that amongst Conservative candidates.

:08:28.:08:33.

Let's assume you do really well in the European actions and there is a

:08:33.:08:37.

widespread expectation that you will, even in Downing Street. They

:08:37.:08:43.

might be managing expectations. What stops you fading away as the general

:08:43.:08:45.

might be managing expectations. What election approaches? A number of

:08:45.:08:49.

reasons. As has been mentioned, the whole issue of the referendum pledge

:08:49.:08:52.

has been proved to be an absolute nonsense. It is so contingent on if

:08:52.:08:59.

I am re-elected, if it's not a coalition government, is, if, if.

:08:59.:09:07.

That was fooled nobody. The issue of where voters are coming from, it is

:09:07.:09:08.

That was fooled nobody. The issue of because they have lost faith in what

:09:08.:09:12.

David Cameron says. There is nothing he is going to say that is convince

:09:12.:09:17.

them to give him another chance. I think that is my view and the view

:09:17.:09:21.

of a lot of UKIP. I am told that they have expunged Nigel Farage from

:09:21.:09:29.

the fringes? It is a great scoop, on the front page. They are outside the

:09:29.:09:33.

ring of steel. Even so, they won't include him in the conference

:09:33.:09:36.

programme, so they must be worried about something. His people have

:09:36.:09:41.

paid money for adverts in the Tory brochure and his name has been taken

:09:41.:09:43.

out. Speaking of people the Tory brochure and his name has been taken

:09:43.:09:48.

leadership is worried about, Boris Johnson, are we in any doubt as a

:09:48.:09:51.

result of his Financial Times interview that he is now beginning

:09:51.:09:59.

his long march back to Parliament? He does express feeling slightly sad

:09:59.:10:01.

during the Syria debate that he was He does express feeling slightly sad

:10:01.:10:04.

not there, on the political front line to participate. I still do not

:10:04.:10:10.

see why it is in his interest is to move before 2015. No, I don't think

:10:10.:10:16.

he will move before, I think he is sending a signal to the existing

:10:16.:10:22.

Tories in the Commons that when Call Me Dave goes, I will be back? He has

:10:22.:10:32.

the Vince Cable problem, if you say the same thing too many times,

:10:32.:10:36.

people get bored and factor it in. The interesting thing is him saying

:10:36.:10:40.

that people have seven years before the electorate get bored of them. He

:10:40.:10:45.

might be cresting that. He doesn't want to be Prime Minister, he is

:10:45.:10:48.

much more ambitious than that. He wants to be an emperor. He was

:10:48.:10:55.

asked, which Roman emperor would you like to be compared to? You said,

:10:55.:10:59.

Augustus, the first and most important. I don't think you are

:10:59.:11:06.

thinking big enough. See what I have to put up with, every Sunday? By

:11:06.:11:12.

virtue of being born in the US, he could be president. Unlike Arnold

:11:12.:11:15.

Schwarzenegger. How about a deal with Boris? He has made no secret,

:11:15.:11:25.

after Eastleigh, that he would be open to a discussion. Let's call it

:11:25.:11:29.

no more than a discussion. He has been adamant, however, he does not

:11:29.:11:34.

see any reason, any justification or any opportunity where he would be

:11:34.:11:36.

able to have that discourse with any opportunity where he would be

:11:36.:11:42.

David Cameron. Maybe it comes down to that on both sides. I've no idea.

:11:42.:11:47.

We know that the Tories will be even more Eurosceptic after the next

:11:47.:11:52.

election? I can't imagine David Cameron's successor will be somebody

:11:52.:11:56.

that supports EU membership in principle. If you look at the

:11:56.:12:00.

ideological direction of the party. The leadership contest will be about

:12:00.:12:05.

2018. If you are standing, when David Cameron renegotiate our

:12:05.:12:08.

membership, are you going to say David Cameron renegotiate our

:12:08.:12:10.

this is a great deal for Britain David Cameron renegotiate our

:12:10.:12:13.

because the Prime Minister has turned to leave rapid change two

:12:13.:12:14.

words in the working Time directive, turned to leave rapid change two

:12:14.:12:17.

or are you going to become a leader by saying, I want out? What would be

:12:18.:12:25.

a good conference for David Cameron this week? A decent poll bounce. Ed

:12:25.:12:29.

Miliband have a good one. An eye-catching announcement related to

:12:29.:12:34.

living standards. May be a clearer line on energy prices? That would

:12:34.:12:37.

certainly help, that fightback has been rubbish so far. The thing we

:12:37.:12:43.

should be looking out for are not the polls immediately after, but the

:12:43.:12:46.

ones about the end of October, when everything gets to settle down and

:12:46.:12:51.

then we will see what happens. In a word, what is Nigel Farage out to

:12:51.:12:55.

get at the Tory conference? What is he doing, other than mischief? I

:12:55.:13:02.

could almost say revenge. Revenge on Mr Cameron? Yes. You know? Lord

:13:02.:13:06.

Ashcroft was there at the Labour conference, let's put it into

:13:06.:13:11.

conference. You call it mischief, but there is every reason why he

:13:11.:13:15.

should be there. We all call it mischief. Thanks for being with us.

:13:15.:13:19.

Join me on Daily Politics for live coverage of the Conservative Party

:13:19.:13:25.

conference tomorrow morning from 11:30 on BBC Two. We will bring you

:13:26.:13:30.

George Osborne's speech live and uninterrupted. I'll be back next

:13:30.:13:33.

weekend when guests will include former Conservative Chancellor

:13:34.:13:37.

Kenneth Clarke. Remember, if it is Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:37.:13:40.

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