12/02/2017 Sunday Politics Wales


Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS


12/02/2017

Andrew Neil and Arwyn Jones with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


Similar Content

Browse content similar to 12/02/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

Commons Speaker John Bercow is accused of compromising his

:00:38.:00:42.

impartiality by revealing he voted Remain in last year's EU referendum.

:00:43.:00:44.

The EU Withdrawal Bill clears its first Parliamentary hurdle.

:00:45.:00:54.

But will the House of Lords be quite so accommodating?

:00:55.:00:56.

Labour's Leader in the Lords joins us live.

:00:57.:01:03.

And we report from Stoke-on-Trent ahead of a crucial by-election

:01:04.:01:08.

Later in the programme: Ukip is looking to give

:01:09.:01:11.

Neil Kinnock tells us where Jeremy Corbyn's

:01:12.:01:14.

gone wrong over Brexit, and the numbers are rising,

:01:15.:01:16.

so is there a problem with how Welsh Government

:01:17.:01:18.

And with me a political panel who frequently like to compromise

:01:19.:01:33.

Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer and Janan Ganesh.

:01:34.:01:39.

I'll be trying to keep them in order during the course of the programme.

:01:40.:01:45.

So, Commons Speaker John Bercow has insisted his ability

:01:46.:01:47.

to act impartially is not damaged by reports that he voted to Remain

:01:48.:01:54.

The Sunday Telegraph reveals that Speaker Bercow revealed his views

:01:55.:02:01.

in front of an audience of students at Reading University

:02:02.:02:03.

This may not be popular with some people in this audience -

:02:04.:02:20.

I thought it was better to stay in the European Union than not,

:02:21.:02:24.

partly for economic reason, being part of a big trade bloc,

:02:25.:02:28.

and partly because I think we're in a world of power blocs,

:02:29.:02:32.

and I think for all the weaknesses and deficiencies

:02:33.:02:34.

of the European Union, it is better to be part of that big

:02:35.:02:38.

Speaker Bercow speaking at Reading University earlier this month. Does

:02:39.:02:48.

he not care is this I get that impression, he knows perfectly well,

:02:49.:02:54.

it states he has to be particularly -- Parliamentary neural. Whether

:02:55.:02:57.

there are going to be enough votes to force him out, the question, the

:02:58.:03:02.

last speaker wept out with the 20 vote against him. You yes to have

:03:03.:03:07.

the command of the support across the House. There is a Deputy

:03:08.:03:13.

Speaker, waiting, who would be superb. I think even the people who

:03:14.:03:23.

pretend to support Macis have had enough -- Speaker Bercow have had

:03:24.:03:28.

enough of his ways. The reason I ask whether he care, he didn't just tell

:03:29.:03:32.

the students that he voted to Remain, he then gave them a running

:03:33.:03:36.

commentary on all the issues that will be part of the Brexit

:03:37.:03:43.

negotiations, workers' rights, immigration, trade policy, everyone

:03:44.:03:45.

maternity leave got a hat tip from him. He would be a very well

:03:46.:03:51.

prepared Brexit minister if attendance needs a colleague --

:03:52.:03:56.

David Davis needs a colleague. I don't think this story makes his

:03:57.:04:00.

position untenable, what does is the wired pattern of behaviour of

:04:01.:04:04.

excessive candour on his political views, going back years, this is a

:04:05.:04:12.

guy who when the Queen visited Parliament described her as theical

:04:13.:04:19.

lied scope Queen. He had a running argument with David Cameron. We know

:04:20.:04:23.

his views on Brexit, we know his views on Donald Trump. . He has

:04:24.:04:33.

given interviews, none of the views are illegitimate but the candour

:04:34.:04:38.

which they are expressed with is scrupulous. Given Lyndsay Hoyle is a

:04:39.:04:42.

class accuse. He is the Deputy Speaker. And a fairly ready

:04:43.:04:47.

replacement, whether there is more of a movement to say, maybe not

:04:48.:04:52.

force Bercow out but acknowledge he has had a few years in the job and

:04:53.:04:56.

the question of successor ship comes into play. Has he concluded he is

:04:57.:05:02.

untouchable? What I can definitely say, is that he is determined to

:05:03.:05:06.

fight this one out, and not go of his own volition, so if he goes he

:05:07.:05:10.

will have to be forced out. He wants to stay. Which will be tough. It

:05:11.:05:16.

will be tough. Likely as things stand. I would say this, I speak to

:05:17.:05:20.

someone who likes the way he has brought the House of Commons to

:05:21.:05:24.

life, held ministers to account, forced them into explain thing,

:05:25.:05:28.

whenever there is a topical issue you know it will be in the House of

:05:29.:05:32.

Commons. He has changed that. He has. Time has been courageous, Ied a

:05:33.:05:39.

mire the way he has been a speaker. I would say this, during the

:05:40.:05:46.

referendum campaign, he asked me Nick Clegg, and Peter Hitchens to

:05:47.:05:49.

debate Brexit if his constituency. It was a packed out meeting. He

:05:50.:05:53.

chaired it. I said don't you want to join in? He didn't. He showed no

:05:54.:05:59.

desire to join in, he was impartial. He goes out to universities and kind

:06:00.:06:06.

of demyth GCSEs Parliament by speaking to them in a way, he

:06:07.:06:12.

doesn't gets credit for it and stays on after and drinks with them.

:06:13.:06:19.

Sometimes he, you know, it is clearly a mistake to have gone into

:06:20.:06:23.

his views retrospectively on that referendum campaign, I don't think

:06:24.:06:27.

that, did he try and stop Article 50 from being triggered in the House of

:06:28.:06:30.

Commons? That would be a scandal. Even that would be beyond him.

:06:31.:06:35.

Briefly, yes or no, could you imagine Betty Boothroyd behaving

:06:36.:06:41.

like that? Not at all. None of the recent speakers I could imagine

:06:42.:06:45.

doing that. It is good he is different.

:06:46.:06:48.

The bill that will allow the government to trigger Article 50

:06:49.:06:52.

and begin Brexit negotiations was voted through

:06:53.:06:54.

Many MPs were in a difficult position - unsure whether to vote

:06:55.:06:58.

with their conscience, their constituency,

:06:59.:07:00.

Europe, once such a divisive issue for the Conservatives,

:07:01.:07:03.

is now causing major divisions inside the Labour Party.

:07:04.:07:05.

So, let's have a look what happened in a bit more detail:

:07:06.:07:10.

Thanks to academic research carried out since the referendum,

:07:11.:07:13.

we now have estimates of how each individual constituency voted.

:07:14.:07:15.

It's thought that 410 constituencies voted Leave.

:07:16.:07:21.

On Wednesday night, the EU Notification of Withdrawal Bill

:07:22.:07:28.

was voted through by the House of Commons.

:07:29.:07:31.

The bill left the Labour Party divided.

:07:32.:07:39.

Jeremy Corbyn told his MPs to respect the result

:07:40.:07:42.

of the referendum and vote for the government's bill -

:07:43.:07:44.

But 52 Labour MPs defied Mr Corbyn's thee-line whip

:07:45.:07:47.

That's about a fifth of the Parliamentary Labour Party.

:07:48.:08:03.

Of those 52 Labour MPs who voted against the bill,

:08:04.:08:06.

the majority, 45 of them, represent seats that voted Remain.

:08:07.:08:08.

However, seven Labour MPs voted against the Article 50 Bill,

:08:09.:08:10.

even though their constituents voted Leave in the referendum.

:08:11.:08:13.

The Conservative Party were much more united.

:08:14.:08:14.

The vast majority of Tory MPs, 320 of them, voted for the bill.

:08:15.:08:17.

Just one Conservative MP, Ken Clarke, voted against it.

:08:18.:08:20.

His constituency, Rushcliffe in Nottinghamshire, voted Remain.

:08:21.:08:21.

The bill will now go to the House of Lords -

:08:22.:08:24.

peers will start debating it on Monday the 20th of February.

:08:25.:08:38.

Joining me now is Matthew Goodwin, politics professor at

:08:39.:08:40.

He's got a book out next month called

:08:41.:08:43.

Brexit: Why Britain Voted To Leave The European Union.

:08:44.:08:45.

Welcome to the programme. Has Brexit, how you voted in the

:08:46.:08:53.

referendum and your continuing attitudes toward it, is that now

:08:54.:08:57.

becoming the new dividing line in British politics? I think it

:08:58.:09:02.

certainly is contributing to a new dividing line, in western politics

:09:03.:09:06.

more generally, we know over the last ten years, that the old left

:09:07.:09:10.

and right division has been making way for a new division, between

:09:11.:09:14.

essentially social liberals and Conservative, and Brexit was a, an

:09:15.:09:18.

incident a moment that really reflected that new dividing line, so

:09:19.:09:22.

it wasn't just the case that Brexit has cut across Labour's base, it is

:09:23.:09:28.

that dividing line, that deeper division is cutting across social

:09:29.:09:34.

democracies more generally. Is there a possibility, no higher than that,

:09:35.:09:37.

that it will reShane our party politics? I think it is too early to

:09:38.:09:42.

know whether this is a fundamental long-term realignment. If we look at

:09:43.:09:46.

what is happening in local by-election, what is happening at

:09:47.:09:52.

by-elections, pictures a bit mixed but if you look at how some of the

:09:53.:09:59.

Labour vote is responding, I think that potentially reflects the

:10:00.:10:02.

possibility of a terminal decline for the Labour Party, it is going to

:10:03.:10:06.

be incredibly difficult for Labour to win these voters back, these are

:10:07.:10:11.

traditional working class, socially Conservative voters who are leaving

:10:12.:10:15.

the party, don't forget, since the 1997 general election. It is not

:10:16.:10:19.

just because of the referendum. If that was the case, Labour would

:10:20.:10:24.

become more a party of the Metropolitan areas, and less of a

:10:25.:10:28.

party outside of these area, is that what you are saying? What we are S

:10:29.:10:33.

seeing across the west can social democracy that retrenchment into the

:10:34.:10:38.

cosmopolitan, Metropolitan city area, university towns, you can

:10:39.:10:42.

seeing in many European states populist right parties filling the

:10:43.:10:46.

traditional socialist area, why are they doing that? Because they are

:10:47.:10:52.

offering two message, economic and cultural protectionism. Social

:10:53.:10:56.

Democrats are clinging to that economic protectionism but not

:10:57.:10:59.

saying much about migration and multiculturalism and that sort of

:11:00.:11:03.

stuff. Are there deeper forces at work than Jeremy Corbyn? He often

:11:04.:11:06.

gets the blame for what is happening to the Labour Party now, but if you

:11:07.:11:10.

look the way the Greek socialist party has been wiped out. The German

:11:11.:11:18.

Social Democrats are in trouble. The Italian socialist party has lost a

:11:19.:11:21.

referendum. The French socialist are coming close to being wiped out on

:11:22.:11:26.

April 23rd, Labour's problems, are part of a much wider problem of

:11:27.:11:31.

social democracy S Jeremy Corbyn is a surface problem, what I mean by

:11:32.:11:35.

that is you could replace him tosh with another leader, they would

:11:36.:11:39.

still have this fundamental tension within the electorate. They are

:11:40.:11:45.

trying to appeal to two differenter reconcilable groups of voters who

:11:46.:11:48.

think differently about the key issues of the day. It is very

:11:49.:11:53.

difficult for any centre left party now to assemble the kinds of

:11:54.:11:59.

coalitionses we saw in the '90s with Clinton and Blair and Schroeder.

:12:00.:12:03.

Those days are gone. Does that explain why it is now Labour, rather

:12:04.:12:08.

than the Conservatives, historically the party divided over the European

:12:09.:12:12.

Union, does all of that help to explain why its Labour that now

:12:13.:12:18.

seems, disunited over the EU? I think so, I think also that the

:12:19.:12:24.

issue of Brexit, and the EU, is so immatly wrapped up with that issue

:12:25.:12:28.

of immigration, if you look at who has been abandoned Labour since 2015

:12:29.:12:33.

or the late 90s, the one thing those voters share is a rejection of the

:12:34.:12:38.

so-called liberal consensus on EU membership and mass immigration. It

:12:39.:12:43.

is difficult for any Labour lead eer co-bin or Clive Lewis on Dan Jarvis,

:12:44.:12:47.

to bring those voters back unless they are going to move on that

:12:48.:12:52.

cultural terrain. If they are not, they may not go to Ukip, they might

:12:53.:12:56.

go to somewhere more difficult for Labour which is political apathy.

:12:57.:12:58.

Thank you for that. Attention now shifts to the House

:12:59.:13:01.

of Lords where peers will begin scrutinising the EU Withdrawal Bill

:13:02.:13:04.

in just over a week. Brexit Secretary David Davis urged

:13:05.:13:06.

the Lords "to do its patriotic duty" and resist the urge to tinker

:13:07.:13:09.

with the legislation. Former minister Oliver Letwin

:13:10.:13:11.

went one further - mooting the possibility

:13:12.:13:13.

of the abolition of the Lords if it sought to frustrate

:13:14.:13:15.

the bill in any way. Here he is posing the question

:13:16.:13:18.

in the Commons on Thursday. Would he find time, in government

:13:19.:13:26.

time for a debate, should the other place seek to delay beyond the end

:13:27.:13:29.

of March the passage of our accession to Article 50, for this

:13:30.:13:32.

House to discuss the possibility of either the abolition or full-scale

:13:33.:13:35.

reform of the other place? And Oliver Letwin joins

:13:36.:13:45.

me now from Dorset. Welcome back to the programme Mr Let

:13:46.:13:58.

win. Before we come on to the Lord's, can I get your thoughts on a

:13:59.:14:02.

matter that has been making the news this morning and John Bercow's

:14:03.:14:06.

remarks about being a remain voter an giving something of a running

:14:07.:14:10.

commentary on various Brexit issues, has he sqloefr stepped the mark as

:14:11.:14:16.

speaker? -- overstepped the mark. I think this is slightly a fuss about

:14:17.:14:23.

nothing. Every person who thinks about politics will have had some

:14:24.:14:27.

opinion about great matters like Brexit, and I really don't see any

:14:28.:14:30.

particular reason why his opinion shouldn't be known after the fact.

:14:31.:14:37.

I, I was there throughout the five days of the Brexit debate, and I

:14:38.:14:41.

have to say, I thought he was pretty scrupulously fair in the way he

:14:42.:14:46.

handled the House, so, I, I don't really share the view that there is

:14:47.:14:49.

some terrible thing that has been revealed this weekend. Let me come

:14:50.:14:53.

on to what we are here to talk about, which is the Lords. Why have

:14:54.:14:59.

you raised the threat of the abolition of the Lord for doing its

:15:00.:15:04.

job of scrutinising what is coming out the Commons? Well, you know,

:15:05.:15:12.

Andrew, this question of the job of the House of Lords and scrutiny, has

:15:13.:15:16.

to be looked at carefully. There are all sorts of bills that come out the

:15:17.:15:21.

House of Commons which are detailed things that relate to, finance, and

:15:22.:15:26.

expenditure, and the criminal law, and all that sort of thing, and all

:15:27.:15:30.

of that, I admire the work that the House of Lords does, as you say

:15:31.:15:35.

scrutinising and we shouldn't use that word loosely, it means looking

:15:36.:15:40.

carefully at the detail, line by line of complicated legislation,

:15:41.:15:46.

hundreds of Paps in some cases, and spotting, using the considerable

:15:47.:15:50.

expertise many, not all be many of the peers have, in any given field,

:15:51.:15:54.

to identify things where the Commons has got it wrong in the sense that

:15:55.:15:58.

the legislation wouldn't achieve what the Government of the day is

:15:59.:16:02.

seeking to make it achieve. That is a serious proper role for an Upper

:16:03.:16:06.

House and the House of Lords performs it pretty

:16:07.:16:11.

Now this is a very different case. This is a two clause bill. The first

:16:12.:16:21.

clause which is the operative clause says the Prime Minister should go

:16:22.:16:27.

ahead and sign... I understand all that. We haven't got that much time,

:16:28.:16:34.

this is becoming a monologue. There is nothing to scrutinise, Andrew.

:16:35.:16:40.

There were plenty of amendments put before the Commons, none of them got

:16:41.:16:45.

through, it is true. There are eight Labour amendments in the Lords, are

:16:46.:16:49.

you resigned to this bill coming back to the Commons with amendments?

:16:50.:16:54.

No, it should not come back with amendments. There were hundreds of

:16:55.:16:58.

amendments literally put down in the House of Commons, they were all

:16:59.:17:01.

drunk. They were all trying one way or another to derail the process.

:17:02.:17:06.

This is a binary issue, should Theresa May sign the withdrawal or

:17:07.:17:13.

not? What should the Commons do? The Commons has now voted in favour of

:17:14.:17:18.

it. Node do should tolerate and unelected chamber forcing the

:17:19.:17:27.

British people... The people voted in a referendum and the Commons

:17:28.:17:31.

voted. The matter is now signed and sealed and should not be derailed by

:17:32.:17:36.

the House of Lords. On Labour amendment wants confirmation that

:17:37.:17:41.

when it is done, the potential Brexit agreement will be put before

:17:42.:17:44.

parliament before any vote in the European Parliament, that has been

:17:45.:17:49.

an agreed principle, what is wrong with that amendments? The government

:17:50.:17:54.

has already agreed there will be a vote, but actually, what the

:17:55.:17:58.

amendments were seeking was to give the Commons a further vote on

:17:59.:18:03.

whether we actually leave or not. That is already decided. Neither the

:18:04.:18:06.

House of Lords nor anybody else has a right in my view, despite the fact

:18:07.:18:12.

I was a remain, to what the will of the British people. Nobody should

:18:13.:18:17.

think an unelected chamber should now try to change the course of

:18:18.:18:21.

British history by asserting amendments in a very effective on

:18:22.:18:26.

clause bill which says go ahead and trigger Article 50. Are you

:18:27.:18:29.

concerned that amendments by the Lords which would then have to go

:18:30.:18:33.

back to the Commons for consideration, are you concerned

:18:34.:18:40.

that could derail or delay the Prime Minister's timetable for Article 50?

:18:41.:18:45.

Yes, exactly. That would be the result of a prolonged bout of

:18:46.:18:49.

ping-pong between the two houses, or much worse, if the House of Lords

:18:50.:18:53.

failed to give way and the Parliament act had to be used. It

:18:54.:18:58.

would really be intolerable. It is not good for our country. Those of

:18:59.:19:01.

us who voted remain would prefer for that not to happen. The whole

:19:02.:19:07.

country -- it is important for the whole country that this happens in a

:19:08.:19:12.

rapid way and allowing the government free rein to negotiate,

:19:13.:19:17.

that is surely in all our advantages? Deed think any efforts

:19:18.:19:21.

to abolish the House of Lords, an issue you have raised, does that

:19:22.:19:26.

make it easier because your friend David Cameron stuffed the upper

:19:27.:19:33.

chamber with donors, lapdogs and lingerie designers? I was among

:19:34.:19:37.

those who advocated for many years wholesale reform of the House of

:19:38.:19:41.

Lords, to turn it into a serious elected second chamber. I think we

:19:42.:19:45.

should have an upper house which commands legitimacy. This is a

:19:46.:19:50.

second issue. Here we have not got such a House and it seems to be very

:19:51.:19:55.

clear that it should not seek to derail on delay the action which has

:19:56.:19:59.

been mandated by the referendum, agreed by the House of Commons, and

:20:00.:20:04.

what we want to see now is a smooth orderly effect for this bill, so it

:20:05.:20:09.

becomes law and Theresa May can go ahead and negotiate on our behalf.

:20:10.:20:14.

One more question on the process, if the Lords to amend the bill and it

:20:15.:20:17.

goes back to the Commons and the Commons sends these amendments back

:20:18.:20:24.

again, take them out, how long could this ping-pong between the two

:20:25.:20:30.

chambers go on in your experience? It is a very, very interesting and

:20:31.:20:35.

complicated question with the clerks of the two ends of the Palace of

:20:36.:20:39.

Westminster not always agreeing about this. But through certain

:20:40.:20:44.

machinations of slightly changing amendments as they go, in my

:20:45.:20:48.

experience this could carry on for an awful long time if clever people,

:20:49.:20:51.

and there are plenty of clever people in the House of Lords, want

:20:52.:20:54.

to do that and that is precisely why I think we should not tolerate it.

:20:55.:20:59.

Oliver Letwin, thank you for joining us from Dorset.

:21:00.:21:02.

Joining me now is Labour's Leader in the House of Lords, Angela Smith.

:21:03.:21:06.

The Commons passed this bill without any amendments... There were

:21:07.:21:12.

changes, the government did concede a couple of points. But the

:21:13.:21:18.

amendments did not go through. Does that put pressure on the Lords to do

:21:19.:21:23.

the same? I think the Lords always feels under pressure to do the right

:21:24.:21:26.

thing. When I heard Oliver Letwin, I did not know whether to laugh or

:21:27.:21:33.

cry. We will not frustrate, we will not wreck, we will not sabotage. We

:21:34.:21:38.

will do what David Davis said was our patriotic duty. We will

:21:39.:21:42.

scrutinise the bill. We have at amendments from the Labour Party. We

:21:43.:21:46.

will look at those. It depends on the government response if we vote

:21:47.:21:49.

on those. There could be amendments asking the Commons to look again.

:21:50.:21:54.

That is normally what we do. It is not the wrong thing to do. But if

:21:55.:22:00.

you do this and make amendments, it then goes back to the Commons. If

:22:01.:22:04.

the Commons rejects the Lords' amendments, what do you think will

:22:05.:22:08.

happen? I do not see any extended ping-pong at all. It is perfectly

:22:09.:22:14.

legitimate. We are not talking about the outcome of negotiations, we are

:22:15.:22:18.

talking about the process. The process of engaging with Parliament

:22:19.:22:22.

and reporting to Parliament. It would be totally responsible for

:22:23.:22:25.

Parliament to say, off you go, Theresa May, have two years of

:22:26.:22:28.

negotiation and come back and talk to us at the end. The has to be a

:22:29.:22:33.

process where the government can use the expertise of parliament to get

:22:34.:22:37.

this right. But if you do put in some amendments, it has to go back

:22:38.:22:43.

to the Commons, they may well say they don't want those amendments and

:22:44.:22:46.

it may go back to the Lords, could that at the very least delay the

:22:47.:22:51.

Prime Minister's Brexit timetable? I don't think so. She said the end of

:22:52.:22:56.

March. Time has been built in for all the normal processes. I think

:22:57.:23:00.

Oliver Letwin and others are getting a bit overexcited. This is the

:23:01.:23:04.

normal process. Unless the government get things right the

:23:05.:23:07.

first time every time, the has to be this kind of process. These are

:23:08.:23:12.

reasonable amendments. This is a Labour amendment we are talking

:23:13.:23:16.

about here, you want a vote in the UK Parliament before any

:23:17.:23:29.

vote in the European Parliament if and when the Brexit deal is done,

:23:30.:23:34.

the Commons and the Lords get to vote on it first. But the government

:23:35.:23:36.

I think have already agreed to that so what is the point? It needs to be

:23:37.:23:40.

on the face of the bill. It is over well if the government have agreed

:23:41.:23:43.

it. Lord dubs had an agreement about child and look what happened to

:23:44.:23:47.

that. Does not sound as if you would go to the wire on that? It is

:23:48.:23:52.

important it is not just about the vote at the end, you have the

:23:53.:23:57.

ongoing engagement. If it is going to be a bad deal, we need to know

:23:58.:24:03.

long before we get to that stage? Is it something you would hold out for?

:24:04.:24:08.

I don't know yet. It is about how the House of Lords votes, Labour do

:24:09.:24:13.

not have a majority, we never had a majority in the House of Lords when

:24:14.:24:16.

we were in government. It is wrong to suggest that we cannot debate

:24:17.:24:22.

these issues... I don't think anyone is suggesting that. They are. It is

:24:23.:24:28.

not unfair to ask the government to ask the House of Commons to look

:24:29.:24:31.

again to look at those issues if that is what the House of Lords

:24:32.:24:35.

decides. Bit of the House of Commons says we looked, we are sticking with

:24:36.:24:40.

what we voted for, we rejected every amendment by at least 30 votes on

:24:41.:24:44.

all occasions, the Lords then have to buckle, is that what you are

:24:45.:24:49.

saying? Some point I think it is clear the House of Commons have to

:24:50.:24:53.

have its say. I think it is inconceivable that having had a

:24:54.:24:57.

referendum, which was not overwhelming, but it was a clear

:24:58.:25:02.

result, the House of Lords has no intention of sabotaging that but

:25:03.:25:04.

there are things which are not good about the process that we think

:25:05.:25:09.

could be improved. We have not just have the result of the referendum

:25:10.:25:13.

which voted to leave, but we have had the will of the Commons that

:25:14.:25:19.

passed this legislation by a majority of 372. And I am not

:25:20.:25:25.

contesting that for a second! Could you cite a precedent for the upper

:25:26.:25:30.

house amending a bill which passed by 372 votes in the Commons? Quite

:25:31.:25:34.

other things will come to the House of Lords with big majorities from

:25:35.:25:37.

the Commons and quite often the amendments we get, with that then

:25:38.:25:42.

forward and the government sees it could do better. Though not

:25:43.:25:47.

necessarily saying the government has got things wrong, but they could

:25:48.:25:50.

do things better. That happens time and time again and it is not

:25:51.:25:55.

unusual. If you were seen to thwart the referendum result and the vote

:25:56.:26:00.

in the Commons, the elected chamber of parliament, is the threat of

:26:01.:26:05.

abolition hanging over you? I think that is really ridiculous and

:26:06.:26:09.

absolute nonsense. We are not tying to what the decision of the House of

:26:10.:26:11.

Commons, we are trying to do better. It is a bit rich of the government

:26:12.:26:16.

and Oliver Letwin to complain about getting things through in time when

:26:17.:26:21.

the House of Commons spent -- the government spent three months trying

:26:22.:26:25.

to debate this issue. There have been some strong questions put to

:26:26.:26:28.

the government from the House of Lords on all sides. I don't know if

:26:29.:26:32.

the amendments have been passed or not. I think we have a good case for

:26:33.:26:41.

the government to get debate the point. If a traditional MP like

:26:42.:26:48.

Oliver Letwin is calling for the abolition of the hereditary and

:26:49.:26:52.

appointed chamber, and the Labour person like yourself was trying to

:26:53.:26:55.

defend that, that would not be a sustainable position, I would

:26:56.:27:01.

suggest! We saw this with the Strathclyde report as well, this is

:27:02.:27:04.

a government like no other. It is the first Conservative government in

:27:05.:27:07.

history not to have an automatic majority. They do not like challenge

:27:08.:27:12.

or scrutiny. But you get my point, Labour cannot go to the wire in

:27:13.:27:18.

defending and an elected second chamber, can it? Actually, Labour

:27:19.:27:20.

can go to the wire in saying the government does not get it right

:27:21.:27:24.

every time. House of Lords is going to normal processes and people like

:27:25.:27:31.

Oliver Letwin are really getting a little bit over excited, and people

:27:32.:27:34.

who have been anonymously briefing. Who has been anonymously briefing? I

:27:35.:27:41.

don't know, they are anonymous! I understand people want to make

:27:42.:27:44.

amendments, that is the role of the House of Lords, but can I just for

:27:45.:27:48.

the avoidance of doubt, is it still your case that whatever amendments

:27:49.:27:52.

to make, whatever may go back and forward, it is not your intention to

:27:53.:27:58.

stop Article 50 being triggered by the end of March? I have been saying

:27:59.:28:03.

that, exactly that for months and months and months. It is

:28:04.:28:06.

inconceivable that an unelected House will thwart the will of the

:28:07.:28:10.

House of Commons and a referendum on this issue. But that does not mean

:28:11.:28:13.

we will be bullied by Oliver Letwin and others. But the triggering will

:28:14.:28:18.

happen by the end of March? I very much suspect so unless Theresa May

:28:19.:28:24.

has second thoughts, I suspect that will happen. Thank you.

:28:25.:28:27.

Now, just because it's parliamentary recess next week

:28:28.:28:29.

There are two by-elections round the corner -

:28:30.:28:33.

one in Copeland, and another in Stoke-on-Trent Central

:28:34.:28:35.

where the former Shadow Education Secretary,

:28:36.:28:36.

Tristram Hunt, vacated his seat to take up a role

:28:37.:28:39.

as Director of the Victoria Albert Museum in London.

:28:40.:28:42.

But Labour are facing a fight to hold onto the constituency

:28:43.:28:44.

Seconds away, Ukip's new leader has stepped into the ring

:28:45.:28:50.

as their candidate in a by-election bout to see

:28:51.:28:53.

At the last election Ukip came second to Labour here

:28:54.:29:00.

But now they are confident they can land a knockout blow,

:29:01.:29:05.

because this place is packed with people that voted to leave the EU.

:29:06.:29:11.

70% of people voted to leave the European Union.

:29:12.:29:15.

I'm the only candidate standing in this election

:29:16.:29:22.

who is a true Brexiteer, who has always campaigned to leave

:29:23.:29:25.

the EU and therefore I believe I would be the best person

:29:26.:29:28.

But he has had to fight off allegations

:29:29.:29:31.

he wasn't living in the constituency when he entered the contest.

:29:32.:29:33.

Explain to me what is going on with this issue about your house?

:29:34.:29:37.

Well, we took up the lease the day before nominations.

:29:38.:29:39.

Everything we've done is perfectly legal and within the law.

:29:40.:29:42.

The Labour Party are trying to get off the real issues in this election

:29:43.:29:47.

and focus on something which is banal nonsense.

:29:48.:29:54.

And there's been trouble as well for the Labour contender.

:29:55.:29:59.

He's been labelled a Remoaner after he sent a series

:30:00.:30:02.

of anti-Brexit tweets, filled with words

:30:03.:30:04.

I can't believe I'm about to ask this question in a nursery

:30:05.:30:15.

on a Sunday morning TV programme, but did you really tweet that

:30:16.:30:18.

I tweeted many things about Brexit, that's tweet is out there.

:30:19.:30:22.

It was done quite after the referendum result and it

:30:23.:30:25.

was my way of showing my frustration at the fact that months

:30:26.:30:28.

after the result we hadn't had anything from the government.

:30:29.:30:33.

Theresa May had failed to produce any plan,

:30:34.:30:35.

she had failed to give any meaningful statement

:30:36.:30:37.

about what Brexit meant other than bland statements

:30:38.:30:39.

about Brexit is Brexit, and it's a hard Brexit, or a soft Brexit.

:30:40.:30:42.

The context of it was it was out of frustration.

:30:43.:30:46.

So you didn't mean to insult the 70% of the people who live here

:30:47.:30:50.

I never mean to insult anybody and you know,

:30:51.:30:53.

I've made it quite clear, if I'm elected as the member

:30:54.:30:56.

of Parliament for Stoke-on-Trent Central, I will absolutely respect

:30:57.:30:58.

the wishes of the people of Stoke Central.

:30:59.:31:00.

I will make sure my vote in parliament is to trigger Article 50.

:31:01.:31:04.

While the Tories' man has done little bit of rebranding too.

:31:05.:31:06.

I voted Remain and I've been open about that, but my top priority

:31:07.:31:10.

is about the economy and to ensure we still have an

:31:11.:31:12.

Theresa May has set out clear proposal to ensure we develop

:31:13.:31:16.

a trade relationship with Europe and make that a success.

:31:17.:31:26.

It means the Lib Dems and the Greens are the ones battling Brexit.

:31:27.:31:29.

Well, when the Lib Dem candidate is actually here.

:31:30.:31:31.

The candidate is a consultant cardiologist.

:31:32.:31:37.

He is actually at work today doing very important heart surgery.

:31:38.:31:40.

He will be back tomorrow, back on the campaign trail working hard.

:31:41.:31:43.

30% of people voted to Remain and nobody else

:31:44.:31:46.

is representing them, so, you know, it is still a live issue.

:31:47.:31:50.

It is still something people care about.

:31:51.:31:52.

We are only at the start of the Article 50 process

:31:53.:31:54.

We are very a clear that we are standing up for those

:31:55.:32:00.

who want to remain in the single market, who want to protect jobs

:32:01.:32:03.

Labour have taken people for granted in this area for a great many years.

:32:04.:32:08.

Ukip, I'm afraid, all Ukip can offer to politics is division.

:32:09.:32:10.

I've covered a lot of by-elections where Ukip have come second.

:32:11.:32:13.

We'll find out if they really got Labour on the ropes this

:32:14.:32:16.

And here is a full list of all the candidates standing

:32:17.:32:35.

in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election.

:32:36.:32:46.

They do atract lots of candidates. You can get that on the BBC website

:32:47.:32:55.

as well. I was trying to think back, here we have the main opposition

:32:56.:33:03.

party defending two seats in by-elections in the midterm of a

:33:04.:33:05.

government. All the speculation is where the

:33:06.:33:12.

opposition party can hold on, that is unprecedented. I can't give of an

:33:13.:33:17.

equivalent. You wouldn't just expect them to win seats they have held

:33:18.:33:23.

traditionally, you would expect hem to make inroads into seats held by

:33:24.:33:29.

the other party, I wonder if they fail to hold on to just one of

:33:30.:33:33.

these, whether it accelerates the momentum and criticism of the

:33:34.:33:38.

leadership of the moment. I think they are interesting constituencies.

:33:39.:33:42.

Matthew good win was talking about the left win coalition over the

:33:43.:33:48.

years, almost being too broad for its own good, including places like

:33:49.:33:55.

Primrose Hill and Hackney. Big university towns in Manchester,

:33:56.:34:00.

Bristol. Diverse ethnically and included places like Stoke which are

:34:01.:34:10.

more Conservative. With a small c. Less economically well-off, more

:34:11.:34:14.

diverse, can the left hang on to both bits of country. Recent

:34:15.:34:18.

evidence suggests it cannot and the opportunity for Ukip is to pick up

:34:19.:34:22.

the second of those two types of community, the Stokes and the cope

:34:23.:34:26.

lands. That what makes the by-elections interest I would

:34:27.:34:29.

suggest. It is not just about Mr Corbyn's future about which we hear

:34:30.:34:34.

too much, it is about this traditional Labour coalition, can it

:34:35.:34:38.

still survive, particularly in places like Stoke? Europe clearly is

:34:39.:34:43.

a test. I think it's a myth by the way that Labour are only split now,

:34:44.:34:50.

over Europe and it has always been a Tory problem, last time I was on I

:34:51.:34:54.

mentioned it. That is why we had a referendum in 75. That is why they

:34:55.:35:01.

had a round then. But they were in chaos behind the scenes over what

:35:02.:35:06.

they thought about the euro, skillful leadership can paper over

:35:07.:35:11.

the cracks, and to address the wider issue of whether we are now in an

:35:12.:35:15.

era where left right issues have disappeared, and there is more of a

:35:16.:35:20.

regional divide, if you take Europe out of the equation which you can't,

:35:21.:35:27.

but if you were able to, issues about health, transport housing do

:35:28.:35:31.

split more left-right than a regional divide, so I think there is

:35:32.:35:36.

still fundamental left-right issues, but Europe isn't one of them and

:35:37.:35:42.

Europe has to be managed by a Labour leader skill fully and evidently

:35:43.:35:45.

that hasn't happened now. How would you see the by-elections in the

:35:46.:35:51.

current political context? Labour should be walking them, it should be

:35:52.:35:55.

a sign of the March of the Labour Party taking on the current

:35:56.:35:57.

Conservative Government. I don't think they raise any questions about

:35:58.:36:01.

Corbyn's leadership because the people who put him in don't think

:36:02.:36:04.

that winning elections matter, you have to remember this will be the

:36:05.:36:10.

mainstream media, it will be our fault why any of those Labour

:36:11.:36:14.

candidates don't win, the thing that is interesting is whether there is

:36:15.:36:18.

is a role for Ukip. The argument after the referendum was Ukip has

:36:19.:36:21.

done its job, it got the referendum, nothing to see here, I remember

:36:22.:36:27.

speaking to put a Nuttall before he was Ukip leader, on the day after

:36:28.:36:34.

the battle and he said this is Year Zero, where Ukip starts now, and

:36:35.:36:38.

this, and this is the interesting thing, does, do we see this one

:36:39.:36:41.

particular party having a role in the future? And I think it is all to

:36:42.:36:46.

play for, they could not not have stood in this seat. They have to win

:36:47.:36:51.

it to be an electoral force. The Labour candidate in Copeland has

:36:52.:36:54.

made the NHS the issue for her in this, that goes into the left-right,

:36:55.:36:58.

are we spending enough, are we not? That will be a test of what you were

:36:59.:37:04.

saying to see if traditional left-right issue, which at the

:37:05.:37:07.

moment would play Labour's way I would suggest, are big enough to

:37:08.:37:10.

overcome all the things you have been talking about and Matthew has

:37:11.:37:15.

been talking about. Maybe at this particular junction they are not,

:37:16.:37:18.

but I don't think any of those issues will go away, and that is why

:37:19.:37:25.

I question whether we are see the end of a historic left-right divide.

:37:26.:37:31.

At the moment with Europe so prominent, clearly these

:37:32.:37:33.

by-elections are unusual. And they will be a test of leadership for

:37:34.:37:37.

Theresa May in the coming months if not at the moment, as they have been

:37:38.:37:41.

in a way that he hasn't risen to, for the Labour leader.

:37:42.:37:46.

We will be leave on BBC One on the night, February 23rd off back of

:37:47.:37:50.

this week, we will bring you the result of both these crucial

:37:51.:37:52.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:53.:37:56.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:37:57.:37:58.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.

:37:59.:38:09.

Hello, and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.

:38:10.:38:11.

Coming up, could Wales learn from Canada in how

:38:12.:38:15.

we help homeless people, and the new Shadow Welsh Secretary

:38:16.:38:18.

tells me why Labour needs to pull together and back Jeremy Corbyn.

:38:19.:38:24.

But first one of his predecessors has told us he's made a "strategic

:38:25.:38:27.

Lord Kinnock led the party for nearly ten years and is a former

:38:28.:38:32.

He says Mr Corbyn has managed to turn Tory divisions over

:38:33.:38:36.

Europe into a series of difficulties for Labour.

:38:37.:38:40.

With his extensive experience of Brussels, our reporter

:38:41.:38:43.

Bethan James asked him how long he thought the negotiations

:38:44.:38:47.

The possibility of negotiating a comprehensive deal of the kind

:38:48.:38:52.

that this country really does need within two years is unthinkable.

:38:53.:38:55.

And I think that people who talk about ten years

:38:56.:39:05.

You have a considerable amount of experience in Brussels, how

:39:06.:39:17.

The first instinct is, of course, most British people

:39:18.:39:23.

working in the institutions of the European Union,

:39:24.:39:26.

and just about everybody else, they are appalled.

:39:27.:39:30.

But that's not going to get in the way of them

:39:31.:39:35.

doing a professional job in terms of negotiations.

:39:36.:39:40.

They will do the job in a very workable way that could mean,

:39:41.:39:44.

of course, very prolonged processes, simply because a great deal

:39:45.:39:50.

of minute detail as well as great principles are involved.

:39:51.:39:54.

I've undertaken international trade negotiations myself.

:39:55.:39:58.

I negotiated the transport agreement in aviation, rail and road

:39:59.:40:01.

So despite the grand between leaders of the countries,

:40:02.:40:13.

do you think it inevitably, you will find ourselves having

:40:14.:40:16.

About three o'clock in the morning meeting when everybody comes

:40:17.:40:23.

Sometimes it's four, half past four in the morning.

:40:24.:40:29.

There is a real problem, however, and it's already apparent.

:40:30.:40:37.

Mrs May has said already, repeatedly, that they want to be

:40:38.:40:43.

best friends with the European Union.

:40:44.:40:48.

However, at the same time they've done that they've said that

:40:49.:40:53.

if we don't get our way we will adopt an alternative

:40:54.:40:56.

economic model, which everybody knows means they would try to turn

:40:57.:40:59.

it into a kind of offshore European tax haven.

:41:00.:41:08.

A sort of Cayman on the English Channel.

:41:09.:41:13.

Now, in terms of trying to win friends and influence people,

:41:14.:41:20.

And the second thing is, she is also said that she is quite

:41:21.:41:27.

Now, that's not a great negotiating stance.

:41:28.:41:34.

If you are trying to put an emphasis on positive possibilities,

:41:35.:41:38.

as she has in one part of vocabulary, you stick with that.

:41:39.:41:41.

If, eventually, conditions become intolerable, then there is no

:41:42.:41:46.

inevitable compromise at three o'clock in the morning.

:41:47.:41:49.

But you don't announce it beforehand, not least

:41:50.:41:56.

because if you do then the calendar will do the work of the other side.

:41:57.:41:59.

If you say that our final threat is we will walk away.

:42:00.:42:04.

The art in any way infuriated, by the stance taken in negotiations,

:42:05.:42:08.

they can not really be blamed for saying, OK, we'll just

:42:09.:42:16.

We'll let the deadline come and see how you deal with that.

:42:17.:42:24.

When you are in negotiations you're not playing conkers.

:42:25.:42:30.

You yourself have said, and Lord Hain has said,

:42:31.:42:33.

that poorer areas will be hit by Brexit whereas areas in Wales,

:42:34.:42:40.

but those are the very areas that voted to leave.

:42:41.:42:54.

Surely the srgument, their plight is a valid one?

:42:55.:42:57.

I've spoken, as you would expect, to hundreds of people

:42:58.:43:00.

Left behind, disadvantaged by the gigantic sweep of change that

:43:01.:43:06.

overtaken industrial and rural Wales, for instance,

:43:07.:43:07.

Now, the calculation that people have now made

:43:08.:43:13.

is whether they would be advantaged or disadvantaged by Brexit.

:43:14.:43:20.

Given the realities relating to the single market,

:43:21.:43:24.

to the forms of migration you've got, and to inward investment.

:43:25.:43:28.

That's not even mentioning the ?300 million a year that we get

:43:29.:43:32.

from European funding those in public culture and regional

:43:33.:43:38.

But it is tricky politically for MPs particularly,

:43:39.:43:44.

like your son, for example, the area you once

:43:45.:43:47.

And those MPs feel that they have too no vote to trigger article 50,

:43:48.:43:56.

because they are representing the will of those people.

:43:57.:44:01.

How would you vote if you were in the Commons now?

:44:02.:44:03.

I would have voted the same way as the majority did.

:44:04.:44:06.

I think that the Labour leader made a strategic error in not saying

:44:07.:44:09.

there should be a free vote, so that members of Parliament

:44:10.:44:13.

could reflect the vote in the areas that they represent.

:44:14.:44:19.

And then, simultaneously, a focus really hard on what the conditions

:44:20.:44:25.

Any disadvantage that is accrued to the British economy will be felt

:44:26.:44:33.

most by the people in the least secure economic position,

:44:34.:44:38.

How do you think the present leader is handling Brexit?

:44:39.:44:45.

I don't think it's being handled, actually.

:44:46.:44:53.

I think that the one really seriously useful thing that

:44:54.:44:58.

he's done is to appoint the Brexit spokesman.

:44:59.:45:04.

Keir Starmer is a very effective forensic lawyer,

:45:05.:45:09.

of skill necessary and the kind of commitment necessary to make

:45:10.:45:15.

the rational arguments in the House of Commons.

:45:16.:45:19.

Beyond that, what potentially could have been a serious problem

:45:20.:45:28.

for the Conservative Party, because of the deep divisions

:45:29.:45:33.

in our party over Europe, I mean, they've lasted 40 years

:45:34.:45:38.

and they are very deep denial, has actually turned, because of the...

:45:39.:45:42.

Rather ineffectual handling of the issue by the leadership

:45:43.:45:50.

of the Labour Party, into a series of difficulties

:45:51.:45:54.

Naturally, since the Labour Party is my first commitment on my first

:45:55.:46:00.

love, other than my family and my country, and I

:46:01.:46:03.

How then does the leadership ensure, what should Jeremy Corbyn be doing

:46:04.:46:17.

to ensure that the Labour Party survives this?

:46:18.:46:21.

Well, he showed, as well as politically, almost physically,

:46:22.:46:23.

demonstrate his commitment to the Solidarity, the Comradeship,

:46:24.:46:28.

the unity of the Labour Party by making strong, salient arguments

:46:29.:46:36.

himself about the need to safeguard the well-being

:46:37.:46:42.

of the British people, particularly those who are

:46:43.:46:45.

And if he did that, in a distinctive, assertive,

:46:46.:46:53.

way a passionate way if you like, with the real substance.

:46:54.:46:59.

Then I think you'd see people say, yes, when the call came,

:47:00.:47:03.

when he was up against it, and when he had his back

:47:04.:47:06.

to the ropes, he came back fighting and made clear,

:47:07.:47:09.

forceful arguments that persuade us...

:47:10.:47:12.

I hope, I mean, he's been elected leader.

:47:13.:47:19.

And if you are a leader, that's what you've got to do.

:47:20.:47:22.

Every minute of the day, and the night, come to that.

:47:23.:47:28.

Now is enough being done to help homeless people in Wales?

:47:29.:47:31.

Charities have told this programme there's a gap in provision

:47:32.:47:34.

which the Welsh Government needs to address.

:47:35.:47:35.

A headcount of rough sleepers carried out one night last November

:47:36.:47:38.

showed there were 141 people sleeping on the streets of Wales

:47:39.:47:41.

Cemlyn Davies has been trying to find out.

:47:42.:47:45.

Myself and a couple of others used to sleep on the corner there.

:47:46.:47:49.

Well, we just huddled up to each other, or used

:47:50.:47:54.

For seven years Alan Rayner lived on the streets of Swansea,

:47:55.:48:00.

the former professional golfer's life unravelled as grief

:48:01.:48:03.

and alcohol took their toll, leaving him homeless.

:48:04.:48:07.

How many consecutive nights would you spend here?

:48:08.:48:10.

Maybe two or three, and then we'd go somewhere else.

:48:11.:48:16.

If we stayed here, like, quite a few nights, then some

:48:17.:48:21.

people get to know you, they know where you're sleeping,

:48:22.:48:25.

and they think, oh, maybe he's got a drink, you know.

:48:26.:48:29.

Let's see if he's asleep, we'll attack him, whatever.

:48:30.:48:37.

So you were always feeling very vulnerable?

:48:38.:48:42.

Alan is now off the streets and the drink, thanks to the support

:48:43.:48:46.

he's received from organisations like The Wallich.

:48:47.:48:52.

Carl Bresnan works for the charity handing out breakfast and advice

:48:53.:48:55.

It's hard to say how many clients day to day,

:48:56.:49:06.

You might see someone today, you might see them tomorrow,

:49:07.:49:10.

then you might not see them for the week because of

:49:11.:49:13.

the transient nature of rough sleeping and the lifestyle.

:49:14.:49:15.

There has been an increase over the past 12 months, definitely.

:49:16.:49:21.

The latest figures, released by the Welsh government this

:49:22.:49:24.

Some of the results are based on a simple head count carried out

:49:25.:49:30.

The estimated total number of people sleeping rough on Welsh

:49:31.:49:36.

That's an increase of 72% in 12 months.

:49:37.:49:49.

That snapshot count followed another piece of research conducted

:49:50.:49:52.

over a two-week period, during that fortnight an estimated

:49:53.:49:55.

313 people were found to be sleeping rough in Wales.

:49:56.:50:01.

So why are more people sleeping rough in Wales,

:50:02.:50:11.

especially given that tackling homelessness has been a priority

:50:12.:50:17.

Recent housing legislation, for example, is supposed to ensure

:50:18.:50:20.

more help was available for people at risk of losing their home.

:50:21.:50:24.

I feel the reason why there is still an increase in rough sleeping,

:50:25.:50:27.

despite the legislation and research they've already sone,

:50:28.:50:31.

is because the focus has been on a preventative agenda

:50:32.:50:34.

which hasn't fully taken into account those that sleep rough,

:50:35.:50:37.

and those that live a street -based lifestyle.

:50:38.:50:40.

And if there was more research done, looking up the numbers,

:50:41.:50:43.

how they've ended up there, what could be put in place now

:50:44.:50:47.

they are there, how to get them back into sustainable accommodation,

:50:48.:50:50.

that research is what needs to be done.

:50:51.:50:53.

I feel there is a gap, currently, in the Welsh government,

:50:54.:50:56.

the way they've looked at things in that area.

:50:57.:50:59.

We are very supportive of the Welsh government's agenda.

:51:00.:51:02.

It's proving to be a much better way of dealing

:51:03.:51:06.

with homelessness for our clients, but where it's not working

:51:07.:51:08.

so effectively is for people who are actually homeless.

:51:09.:51:11.

We are better at preventing homelessness than we used to be,

:51:12.:51:14.

but we aren't so good at helping people once they have

:51:15.:51:17.

fallen into that hole, and once they are actually living

:51:18.:51:20.

The City Of Medicine Hat in Canada claims to have almost eradicated

:51:21.:51:33.

homelessness simply by giving rough sleepers a home with

:51:34.:51:37.

The idea is that it easier for a rough sleeper to solve

:51:38.:51:43.

their problems with a roof over their head.

:51:44.:51:46.

The city's Mayor, says it also makes financial sense,

:51:47.:51:50.

costing just one fifth of what it would cost to support

:51:51.:51:52.

We've seen a reduction in costs to public systems like emergency

:51:53.:51:57.

services that are offered by hospitals and the police.

:51:58.:52:06.

What we see happening first is the if it's

:52:07.:52:09.

implemented across the region, in particular, it can reduce

:52:10.:52:12.

the cost to the service and those systems.

:52:13.:52:18.

And those resources can be better used elsewhere.

:52:19.:52:27.

You are in touch with your family? Yes, my brother.

:52:28.:52:31.

Back in Swansea Alan counts himself lucky to have been given

:52:32.:52:34.

somewhere to call home, he now wants to do some voluntary

:52:35.:52:37.

work and hopes he can soon return to the golf course.

:52:38.:52:39.

Now we asked for an interview with a minister but no-one was available.

:52:40.:52:42.

However in a statement the Welsh Government said "We fully

:52:43.:52:45.

recognise there is more to do and we expect Local Authorities

:52:46.:52:48.

to focus on preventing and relieving homelessness.

:52:49.:52:50.

We have recently announced nearly ?8 million for the Homelessness

:52:51.:52:52.

Prevention Programme and also fund short term accommodation

:52:53.:52:54.

Labour has a new shadow secretary of state for Wales,

:52:55.:53:02.

the 5th since the general election less than two years ago.

:53:03.:53:05.

She was promoted from the position of shadow justice minister,

:53:06.:53:14.

has represented Wales over 100 times in squash and has

:53:15.:53:16.

She was also married to the former secretary of state

:53:17.:53:20.

for Wales, Ron Davies, but they've since divorced.

:53:21.:53:22.

And I only mention that because, when I met up with her,

:53:23.:53:25.

she told me their daughter found her appointment rather

:53:26.:53:27.

Well, first of all, Christina Rees, congratulations on your new role.

:53:28.:53:32.

Extreme honour to be asked, but I asked if I could speak

:53:33.:53:36.

to my daughter, and I rang her lap, and she saw the irony

:53:37.:53:39.

And said, well, Mum, we didn't see this one coming,

:53:40.:53:44.

but, you know, please do what you want to do.

:53:45.:53:48.

I know your heart is in politics, and serving Neath.

:53:49.:53:51.

And now you've got a chance to represent Wales in politics,

:53:52.:53:54.

Given that you're the fifth person to occupy this position

:53:55.:54:05.

since the General Election less than two years ago, does that make

:54:06.:54:08.

Not daunting, because we've had some tremendous shadows secretaries,

:54:09.:54:16.

they've all been fantastic in the role.

:54:17.:54:20.

And have left for, you know, for their own reasons.

:54:21.:54:24.

And I'm sure they'd be able to give me advice,

:54:25.:54:30.

I'd be willing to accept their advice.

:54:31.:54:37.

With Carwyn, I have a relationship that goes back quite

:54:38.:54:40.

He campaigned to get me elected in his seat, of Bridgend,

:54:41.:54:44.

So we have a really good working relationship,

:54:45.:54:50.

and I've already contacted Carwyn and we plan to meet

:54:51.:54:52.

Do you see it as being the voice of Carwyn Jones in Westminster,

:54:53.:55:01.

or vice versa, because I guess it's quite an important distinction?

:55:02.:55:05.

I see it as working together for the good of the people of Wales.

:55:06.:55:10.

I mean, I'm passionate about Wales, and I know that Carwyn is,

:55:11.:55:14.

But there has been over the years that is tension between some

:55:15.:55:22.

of the MPs and some of the AMs, especially in terms of the direction

:55:23.:55:26.

of devolution, could that be a stumbling point,

:55:27.:55:28.

I don't think so, because my task, shortly after I went to Westminster

:55:29.:55:37.

in May 2015 and became secretary of the Welsh Labour group of MPs,

:55:38.:55:46.

and one of my roles was to organise meetings so we could talk

:55:47.:55:49.

We've had a few meetings of AMs and MPs that have gone really well.

:55:50.:55:54.

I think we know how strong the Labour government has been

:55:55.:55:57.

But there is a view that on the pace of devolution MPs have been more

:55:58.:56:10.

sceptical than their counterparts in Cardiff Bay, is that

:56:11.:56:18.

I can't speak for the MPs who are reticent, I believe in devolution.

:56:19.:56:25.

I believe in taking powers down to a lower level and I think that

:56:26.:56:28.

can only enhance the benefits of the people in Wales.

:56:29.:56:36.

One of the things that Carwyn Jones talked about recently

:56:37.:56:39.

was immigration, looking at Brexit and saying, actually,

:56:40.:56:42.

Jeremy Corbyn's position on that isn't helpful,

:56:43.:56:47.

it's London centric, is that something you'd go along

:56:48.:56:50.

That's one of the criticisms that the Labour Party

:56:51.:56:54.

has been rather London centric in Westminster.

:56:55.:56:59.

But I'm a big fan of Keir Starmer man who is leading us

:57:00.:57:02.

through the minefield that is Brexit and he's a very able, capable man.

:57:03.:57:08.

His views are pretty much the same as Carwyn,

:57:09.:57:12.

and I know they'll work together on the White Paper.

:57:13.:57:15.

But Keir Starmer isn't the leader of the party, Jeremy Corbyn is.

:57:16.:57:18.

And he's saying slightly different things.

:57:19.:57:21.

I think we resolved that difference now, and immigration,

:57:22.:57:25.

people should be more than welcome to come to Wales if they've got

:57:26.:57:30.

a job, and you know that the NHS is propped up not only in Wales,

:57:31.:57:34.

And further afield to come in and give us their expertise.

:57:35.:57:45.

I interviewed Carwyn Jones a couple of months ago,

:57:46.:57:47.

and he said, actually, there isn't really a problem

:57:48.:57:49.

with immigration in Wales, but there is the perception

:57:50.:57:51.

of members of the public that they think there's

:57:52.:57:53.

They think it's far higher than it is, it's about 2% in Neath.

:57:54.:57:58.

People born outside of the European Union,

:57:59.:57:59.

Isn't there a lack of leadership from the Labour Party,

:58:00.:58:06.

from Carwyn Jones and people like that, saying, well,

:58:07.:58:09.

immigration isn't a problem, but we'll still do something

:58:10.:58:10.

We did get it on the doorstep when we campaigned vigorously

:58:11.:58:19.

And we had the conversation that people on the doorstep,

:58:20.:58:22.

People coming over here stealing our jobs, it makes

:58:23.:58:29.

And then they get this perception that it is their fault.

:58:30.:58:38.

You mentioned the divisions in the party. They are schisms on divisions

:58:39.:58:45.

within the party at the moment, how confident are you that Jeremy Corbyn

:58:46.:58:51.

will, and should lead the party into the next election in 2020?

:58:52.:58:57.

He is our leader. He has been democratically elected. As far as

:58:58.:59:01.

I'm concerned we should be behind the leader and support him in any

:59:02.:59:07.

way we can. That is the structure of the Labour Party.

:59:08.:59:10.

But if there are, and there are always rumours around, but if there

:59:11.:59:14.

are people who will try to unseat him before the next election would

:59:15.:59:19.

you be telling them I'll play no part in this? He's got my 100%

:59:20.:59:24.

support. Battle waiver? That's exactly what

:59:25.:59:29.

I'll be saying. He is our leader I form part of the Shadow Cabinet and

:59:30.:59:33.

it's a tremendous honour. I'll be working for unity in the party. We

:59:34.:59:37.

have been united since the summer and have been working so hard to

:59:38.:59:43.

make it work. Why are the fifth incumbent in your role, so they

:59:44.:59:46.

won't be a success before 2020? I hope not. Your sporting

:59:47.:59:54.

achievements, you've represented Welsh schools at hockey, tennis and

:59:55.:59:58.

athletics, you represented Wales in squash and are a black belt in judo,

:59:59.:00:03.

yet you've got something against God, I'm not saying I disagree with

:00:04.:00:08.

you, but what is your problem with golf?

:00:09.:00:10.

I said this in a debate because I'd been campaigning to get squash into

:00:11.:00:17.

the Olympics. I thought it would be in the London Olympics because we

:00:18.:00:21.

could have got medals. I just drew an analogy between I could go on a

:00:22.:00:26.

squash court and hit 100 balls in five minutes and my brother who

:00:27.:00:30.

plays golf takes five hours to hit 100 balls around a golf course.

:00:31.:00:34.

The comparison doesn't ring true for me.

:00:35.:00:37.

So you're impatient Ben! Not impatient but I want more quality,

:00:38.:00:44.

I'd probably had it in the rough anyway! Thank you, Christina Rees.

:00:45.:00:47.

That's all from us for this week and indeed the next fortnight.

:00:48.:00:50.

You can follow us there - we're @walespolitics

:00:51.:00:54.

Diolch am wylio, thanks for watching, time to go back

:00:55.:00:58.

After the excitement and late nights in the Commons last week,

:00:59.:01:14.

MPs are having a little break this week as we head into

:01:15.:01:17.

But there's still plenty in the diary in the near future -

:01:18.:01:21.

let's just remind ourselves of some key upcoming dates.

:01:22.:01:28.

There they are. We have the two by-elections on February 23rd. The

:01:29.:01:38.

budget is 8th March. That will be the last spring budget under this

:01:39.:01:41.

Government because it moves to the autumn.

:01:42.:01:55.

That round of French elections narrows the candidates, probably

:01:56.:02:02.

about eight or nine, down to two, the two who come first and second,

:02:03.:02:07.

then go into a play off round on May 7th. That will determine the next

:02:08.:02:14.

President. Steve, listening to Oliver Letwin and to the Labour

:02:15.:02:18.

leader in the House of Lords, is there any way you think that end of

:02:19.:02:22.

March deadline for Mrs May could be in jeopardy? No, I don't. Andrew

:02:23.:02:27.

Smith couldn't have been clearer with you they would do nothing to

:02:28.:02:32.

block not just Article 50 but that timetable, so I would be surprised

:02:33.:02:38.

if they don't make it. Given her, Theresa May's explicit determination

:02:39.:02:42.

to do so, not to do so would have become a problem for her, I think

:02:43.:02:48.

one way or another... No before this vote last week there was a vote nor

:02:49.:02:52.

the deadline, to agree the deadline by all sides. Plain sailing do you

:02:53.:02:57.

think? There is no serious Parliamentary resistance and it

:02:58.:03:00.

would be a personal embarrassment, I think for the Prime Minister to name

:03:01.:03:03.

the the end of March as the deadline and to miss it, unless she has a

:03:04.:03:09.

good excuse. I I reckon it will change the atmosphere of politics

:03:10.:03:13.

for the next two years, as soon as the negotiations begin, people in

:03:14.:03:16.

our profession will hunt for any detail and inside information we can

:03:17.:03:21.

find, thing also be leaked, I think from the European side from time to

:03:22.:03:25.

time, it will dominate the headlines for a solid two years and change

:03:26.:03:29.

politics. Let me just raise a possible, a dark cloud. No bigger

:03:30.:03:35.

than man's hand, that can complicate the timetable, because the Royal

:03:36.:03:39.

Assent on the current timetable has to come round the 13th. I would

:03:40.:03:44.

suggest that the Prime Minister can't trigger that until she does

:03:45.:03:49.

get the Royal Assent. If there is a bit of ping-pong that could delay

:03:50.:03:54.

that by receive day, the last thing the Europeans would want, they have

:03:55.:03:57.

another big meeting at the end of March which is the 60th anniversary

:03:58.:04:04.

of the Treaty of Rome. They don't want Article 50 to land on the

:04:05.:04:10.

table... It would infuriate everybody. My guess is she will have

:04:11.:04:15.

done it by then, this is between the Commons and the Lords, I mean Andrew

:04:16.:04:19.

Smith couldn't have been clearer, that they might send something back

:04:20.:04:25.

but they didn't expect a kind of a long play over this, so. The Liberal

:04:26.:04:31.

Democrats, they are almost an irrelevance in the Commons but not

:04:32.:04:36.

the Lords, they feel differently. Now, we don't know yet what the

:04:37.:04:40.

European Union negotiating position is going to be, we don't know

:04:41.:04:44.

because there are several crucial elections taking place, the Dutch

:04:45.:04:47.

taking place in March and then the one we put up, the French, and, at

:04:48.:04:51.

the moment, the French one is, it seems like it is coming down, to a

:04:52.:04:58.

play-off in the second round between Madame Le Pen who could come first

:04:59.:05:06.

in the first round and this Blairite figure, independent, centre-leftish

:05:07.:05:10.

Mr Macron, he may well get through and that, and the outcome of that

:05:11.:05:15.

will be an important determine napt on our negotiations. -- determinant.

:05:16.:05:20.

You o couldn't have two more different candidate, you have a

:05:21.:05:24.

national a front candidate and on the other hand the closest thing

:05:25.:05:28.

France could have you to a liberal President. With a small l. A

:05:29.:05:35.

reformist liberal President. It would be the most French thing in

:05:36.:05:41.

the world to elect someone who while the rest of the world is elected

:05:42.:05:47.

elitist, to elect someone who is the son of a teacher, who has liberal

:05:48.:05:53.

views, is a member of the French elite. It would be a thing for them

:05:54.:06:00.

to elect a man like that which I why I see them doing it. If it is Le

:06:01.:06:08.

Pen, Brexit becomes a minor sideshow, if it is Le Pen, the

:06:09.:06:13.

future of the European Union is? Danger, regardless of whether we are

:06:14.:06:20.

were in or out. I suggest if it is Mr Macron that presents some

:06:21.:06:23.

problems. He doesn't have his own party. He won't have a majority in

:06:24.:06:27.

the French assembly, he is untried and untested. He wants to do a

:06:28.:06:32.

number of things that will be unpopular which is why a number of

:06:33.:06:39.

people close to Mrs Le Pen tell me that she has her eye on 2022. She

:06:40.:06:47.

thinks lit go to hell in a hand basket under Mr Macron. He hasn't

:06:48.:06:53.

got the experience. What I find fascinating. It is not just all to

:06:54.:06:58.

play for in France, it is the fact what happens in France and Germany,

:06:59.:07:01.

not so much Holland I think but Germany later on in the year, how

:07:02.:07:08.

much it impacts what we are going to get. How much which ex #i78 panting

:07:09.:07:21.

on them. And at the time we are trying to, withdrawing ourself from

:07:22.:07:24.

European politics it is fascinating how much it will affect us. You see

:07:25.:07:27.

what Matthew was talking about earlier in the show, that what we do

:07:28.:07:33.

know, almost for sure, is that the socialist candidate will not get

:07:34.:07:36.

through to the second round. He could come firth but the

:07:37.:07:42.

centre-right candidate. If we were discussing that monthing a we would

:07:43.:07:45.

say it between teen the centre-right and the national fronts. We are to

:07:46.:07:51.

saying that. Matthew good win who spent a time in France isn't sure Le

:07:52.:07:55.

Pen will get into the second round, which is interesting. It is, I mean,

:07:56.:08:00.

it is going to be as important for the future of the European Union, as

:08:01.:08:07.

in retrospect the British 2015 general election was, if Labour had

:08:08.:08:10.

got in there would have been no referendum. That referendum has

:08:11.:08:14.

transformed the European Union because we are leaving and the

:08:15.:08:20.

French election is significant. We will be live from Paris on April

:08:21.:08:25.

23rd on the day France goings to the first round of polls. Tom Watson, he

:08:26.:08:30.

was on The Andrew Marr Show earlier today, was asked about Mr Corbyn,

:08:31.:08:31.

this is what he had to say. We had a damaging second leadership

:08:32.:08:36.

election, so we've got The polls aren't great for us,

:08:37.:08:40.

but I'm determined now we've got the leadership settled for this

:08:41.:08:44.

parliament, that we can focus on developing a very positive clear

:08:45.:08:46.

message to the British people So Julia, I don't know who are you

:08:47.:09:02.

are giggling. I find it untenable that, he is a very good media

:09:03.:09:08.

performer and he comes on and he is sitting there so well, you know,

:09:09.:09:11.

things are bad but don't worry we are looking at what we can do to win

:09:12.:09:16.

2020. The idea that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were sitting in their

:09:17.:09:21.

offices or on TV screens at this time in the electoral cycle thinking

:09:22.:09:26.

well I wonder if we can come up with a policy the British people might

:09:27.:09:31.

like. It is a nonsense, this is Tuesday night book zlufb. I am going

:09:32.:09:39.

to ask you the question I was going to before. I would suggest that he

:09:40.:09:45.

the right. The deputy Labour leader Tom Watson is violent the leadership

:09:46.:09:52.

is settled, with one caveat, unless the Corbynistas themselves to decide

:09:53.:09:56.

to move on Mr Corbyn, if the left of the Labour Party decides then it is

:09:57.:10:01.

not settled. Settled. If that doesn't happen that is That would be

:10:02.:10:06.

the worst situation if you are a Labour moderate. The Corbynistas

:10:07.:10:10.

would be saying the problem is no Corbynism, it is Corbyn himself, if

:10:11.:10:16.

we a younger person leading the process we can win the next general

:10:17.:10:21.

election, which means you have another itration of this, another

:10:22.:10:26.

five year experiment. And that is worst of all. If you are a Labour

:10:27.:10:33.

moderate, what you want is Jeremy Corbyn contest the next general

:10:34.:10:38.

election, possibly loses badly and then a Labour not moderate runs for

:10:39.:10:41.

the leadership saying we have tried your way, the worst would be Corbyn

:10:42.:10:47.

going, and a younger seven version of him trying and the experiment

:10:48.:10:51.

being extended. I see no easy way out of this. That is why he radiated

:10:52.:10:57.

the enthusiasm of someone in a hostage video in that interview.

:10:58.:11:01.

Maybe he has the Stockholm Syndrome now. The Labour moderates have had

:11:02.:11:08.

their day in the sun, two days in the sun and they lost. I suggest

:11:09.:11:12.

they are not going to try for the hat-trick again. Is there any

:11:13.:11:17.

indication that on the more Corbyn wing of the Labour Party, there is

:11:18.:11:23.

now doubts about their man. Yes, just to translate Tom Watson, what

:11:24.:11:28.

he meant was I Tom Watson am not going to get involved in another

:11:29.:11:34.

attempted coup. I tried it and it was a catastrophe. That is question

:11:35.:11:40.

enhe says it is set selled. It is because there is speculation on a

:11:41.:11:46.

daily basis. I disagree, Julia said I think this lot don't care about

:11:47.:11:52.

winning, I think they do. If the current position continue, one of

:11:53.:11:55.

two things will happen. Either Jeremy Corbyn will decide himself

:11:56.:11:59.

will decide he doesn't want to carry on. He half enjoys I it and half

:12:00.:12:06.

hates it. Finds it a strain. If that doesn't happen there will be some

:12:07.:12:11.

people round him who will say, look, this isn't working. There is another

:12:12.:12:17.

three-and-a-half years. There is a long way to go. I can't see it

:12:18.:12:22.

lasting in this way with politics in a state of flux, Tories will be

:12:23.:12:27.

under pressure in the coming two years, to have opinion polls at this

:12:28.:12:32.

level, I think is unsustainable. Final thought from you.? Yes, the

:12:33.:12:36.

idea it St another three-and-a-half years is just madness, but the

:12:37.:12:41.

people we are putting up at replacement for Jeremy Corbyn, and

:12:42.:12:46.

they have been focus grouping them. Most members wouldn't know who most

:12:47.:12:50.

of people were let alone most of the public.

:12:51.:12:55.

Angela rain? They are not overwhelmed with leadership

:12:56.:13:01.

potential at the moment. Very diplomatically put. Neither are the

:13:02.:13:06.

Tories, but they happened to have one at the moment. All right. That

:13:07.:13:07.

is it. Now, there's no Daily

:13:08.:13:11.

or Sunday Politics for the next week But the Daily Politics will be back

:13:12.:13:13.

on Monday 20th February and I'll be back here with the Sunday Politics

:13:14.:13:18.

on the 26th. Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:19.:13:21.

it's the Sunday Politics...

:13:22.:13:24.