26/02/2017 Sunday Politics Wales


26/02/2017

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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:42.:00:47.

Theresa May still has plenty on her plate,

:00:48.:00:47.

not least a battle over Brexit in the Lords.

:00:48.:00:50.

But after Thursday's by-election win in Copeland,

:00:51.:00:51.

the Prime Minister looks stronger than ever.

:00:52.:00:53.

Jeremy Corbyn's Labour saw off Ukip in this week's other by-election,

:00:54.:00:56.

but losing to the Tories in a heartland seat leaves the party

:00:57.:00:58.

The leader of Scottish Labour joins me live.

:00:59.:01:08.

You look at what's happening last night in Sweden. Sweden!

:01:09.:01:14.

And Donald Trump may have been mocked for talking about the impact

:01:15.:01:21.

Coming up in Sunday Politics for Wales,

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what next for UKIP, after this week's by-elections?

:01:24.:01:24.

In London, will the rise in council in Wales under threat?

:01:25.:01:29.

In London, will the rise in council tax in all but four local

:01:30.:01:32.

authorities be enough to alleviate the crisis in social care?

:01:33.:01:38.

And joining me for all of that, three journalists who I'm pleased

:01:39.:01:41.

to say have so far not been banned from the White House.

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I've tried banning them from this show repeatedly,

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but somehow they just keep getting past BBC security - it's Sam Coates,

:01:54.:01:56.

We have had two crucial by-elections, the results last

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Thursday night. It's now Sunday morning, where do they believe

:02:08.:02:11.

British politics? I think it leaves British politics looking as if it

:02:12.:02:15.

may go ahead without Ukip is a strong and robust force. It is

:02:16.:02:20.

difficult to see from where we are now how Ukip rebuilds into a

:02:21.:02:25.

credible vote winning operation. I think it looks unprofessional, the

:02:26.:02:30.

campaign they fought in Stoke was clearly winnable because the margin

:02:31.:02:34.

with which Labour held onto that seat was not an impressive one but

:02:35.:02:38.

they put forward arguably the wrong candidate, it was messy and it's

:02:39.:02:42.

hard to see where they go from here, particularly with the money problems

:02:43.:02:46.

they have and even Nigel Farage saying he's fed up of the party. If

:02:47.:02:52.

Isabel is right, if Ukip is no longer a major factor, you look at

:02:53.:02:59.

the state of Labour and the Lib Dems coming from a long way behind

:03:00.:03:03.

despite their local government by-election successes, Tories never

:03:04.:03:08.

more dominant. I think Theresa May is in a fascinating situation. She's

:03:09.:03:12.

the most powerful Prime Minister of modern times for now because she

:03:13.:03:18.

faces no confident, formidable opposition. Unlike Margaret Thatcher

:03:19.:03:23.

who in the 1980s, although she won landslides in the end, often looked

:03:24.:03:27.

like she was in trouble. She was inferred quite often in the build-up

:03:28.:03:33.

to the election. David Owen, Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams. And quite

:03:34.:03:40.

often she was worried. At the moment Theresa May faces no formidable UK

:03:41.:03:45.

opposition. However, she is both strong and fragile because her

:03:46.:03:49.

agenda is Brexit, which I still think many have not got to grips

:03:50.:03:53.

with in terms of how complex and training and difficult it will be

:03:54.:03:59.

for her. Thatcher faced no equivalent to Brexit so she is both

:04:00.:04:04.

strong, formidably strong because of the wider UK political context, and

:04:05.:04:08.

very fragile. It is just when you think you have never been more

:04:09.:04:12.

dominant you are actually at the most dangerous, what can possibly go

:04:13.:04:18.

wrong? I think that the money of her MPs they haven't begun to think

:04:19.:04:21.

through the practicalities of Brexit and she does have a working majority

:04:22.:04:26.

of about 17 in the House of Commons so at any point she could be put

:04:27.:04:29.

under pressure from really opposition these days is done by the

:04:30.:04:33.

two wins inside the Conservative Party, either the 15 Europhiles or

:04:34.:04:40.

the bigger group of about 60 Brexiteers who have continued to

:04:41.:04:43.

operate as a united and disciplined force within the Conservative Party

:04:44.:04:48.

to get their agenda on the table. Either of those wings could be

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disappointed at any point in the next three and a half years and that

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would put her under pressure. I wouldn't completely rule out Ukip

:04:56.:05:01.

coming back. The reason Ukip lost in Stoke I think it's because at the

:05:02.:05:05.

moment Theresa May is delivering pretty much everything Ukip figures

:05:06.:05:12.

might want to see. We might find the phrase Brexit means Brexit quite

:05:13.:05:15.

anodyne but I think she is convincing people she will press

:05:16.:05:18.

ahead with their agenda and deliver the leave vote that people buy a

:05:19.:05:24.

slim majority voted for. Should that change, should there be talk of

:05:25.:05:28.

transition periods, shut the migration settlement not make people

:05:29.:05:32.

happy, then I think Ukip risks charging back up the centre ground

:05:33.:05:36.

and causing more problems in future. That could be a two year gap in

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which Ukip would have to survive. As I said, Ukip is on our agenda for

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today. Thursday was a big night

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for political obsessives like us, with not one but two

:05:47.:05:48.

significant by-elections, Ellie braved the wind and rain

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to bring you this report. The clouds had gathered,

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the winds blew at gale force. Was a change in the air, or just

:06:01.:06:05.

a weather system called Doris? Voters in Stoke-on-Trent

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were about to find out. It's here, a sports hall

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on a Thursday night that the country's media reckon

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is the true eye of the storm. Would Labour suffer a lightning

:06:17.:06:22.

strike to its very heart, or would the Ukip threat proved

:06:23.:06:25.

to be a damp squib? Everybody seems to think the result

:06:26.:06:27.

in Stoke-on-Trent would be close, just as they did 150-odd miles away

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in Copeland, where the Tories are counting on stealing another

:06:31.:06:34.

Labour heartland seat. Areas of high pressure in both

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places, and some strange sights. We knew this wasn't a normal

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by-election, and to prove it there is the rapper,

:06:47.:06:49.

Professor Green. Chart-toppers aside,

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winner of Stoke-on-Trent hit parade was announced first,

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where everyone was so excited the candidates didn't even make it

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onto the stage for the result. And I do hereby declare

:06:57.:07:00.

that the said Gareth Snell Nigel Farage has said that victory

:07:01.:07:04.

here in Stoke-on-Trent But Ukip's newish leader

:07:05.:07:11.

played down the defeat, insisting his party's

:07:12.:07:18.

time would come. Are you going to stand again

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as an MP or has this No doubt I will stand again,

:07:22.:07:27.

don't worry about that. The politics of hope beat

:07:28.:07:30.

the politics of fear. I think Ukip are the ones this

:07:31.:07:39.

weekend who have got But a few minutes later,

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it turned out Labour had Harrison, Trudy Lynn,

:07:43.:07:48.

the Conservative Party That was more than 2,000

:07:49.:07:52.

votes ahead of Labour. What has happened here tonight

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is a truly historic event. Labour were disappointed,

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but determined to be optimistic At a point when we're 15 to 18

:08:08.:08:09.

points behind in the polls... The Conservatives within 2000 votes

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I think is an incredible The morning after the night

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before, the losing parties were licking their wounds

:08:26.:08:29.

and their lips over breakfast. For years and years,

:08:30.:08:33.

Ukip was Nigel Farage, That has now changed,

:08:34.:08:36.

that era has gone. It's a new era, it is

:08:37.:08:43.

a second age for us. So that needs to be

:08:44.:08:46.

more fully embedded, it needs to be more defined,

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you know, and that will We have to continue to improve

:08:52.:08:53.

in seats where we have stood. As we have done here,

:08:54.:09:02.

we've improved on our 2015 result, that's what important,

:09:03.:09:05.

is that we are taking steps Can I be the first to come

:09:06.:09:07.

here today to congratulate you on being elected the new MP

:09:08.:09:12.

for Stoke on Trent Central. Jeremy Corbyn has just arrived

:09:13.:09:15.

in Stoke to welcome his newest MP. Not sure he's going to

:09:16.:09:18.

Copeland later though. Earlier in the day, the Labour

:09:19.:09:23.

leader had made clear he'd considered and discounted some

:09:24.:09:27.

theories about the party's Since you found out that you'd lost

:09:28.:09:29.

a seat to a governing party for the first time

:09:30.:09:35.

since the Falklands War, have you at any point this morning

:09:36.:09:39.

looked in the mirror and asked yourself this question -

:09:40.:09:42.

could the problem actually be me? In the end it was the Conservatives

:09:43.:09:46.

who came out on top. No governing party has made

:09:47.:09:54.

a gain at a by-election With the self-styled people's army

:09:55.:09:56.

of Ukip halted in Stoke, and Labour's wash-out

:09:57.:10:02.

here in Copeland... There's little chance of rain

:10:03.:10:07.

on Theresa May's parade. In the wake of that loss in

:10:08.:10:18.

Copeland, the Scottish Labour Party has been meeting for its spring

:10:19.:10:21.

conference in the Yesterday, deputy leader Tom Watson

:10:22.:10:23.

warned delegates that unless Labour took the by-election defeat

:10:24.:10:28.

seriously, the party's devastation in Scotland could be repeated

:10:29.:10:30.

south of the border. Well, I'm joined now

:10:31.:10:34.

by the leader of Scottish Labour, Even after your party had lost

:10:35.:10:49.

Copeland to the Tories and with Labour now trailing 16 points in the

:10:50.:10:52.

UK polls, you claim to have every faith that Jeremy Corbyn would

:10:53.:10:57.

absolutely win the general election. What evidence can you bring to

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support that? There is no doubt the result in Copeland was disappointing

:11:06.:11:08.

for the Labour Party and I think it's a collective feeling for

:11:09.:11:12.

everyone within the Labour Party and I want to do what I can to turn

:11:13.:11:15.

around the fortunes of our party. That's what I've committed to do

:11:16.:11:18.

while I have been the Scottish Labour leader. This two years ago we

:11:19.:11:25.

were down the mines so to speak in terms of losing the faith of working

:11:26.:11:29.

class communities across the country, but we listened very hard

:11:30.:11:33.

to the message voters are sending and responded to it. That's what I'm

:11:34.:11:37.

committed to doing in Scotland and that's what Jeremy Corbyn is

:11:38.:11:43.

committed to doing UK wide. The latest polls put Labour at 14% in

:11:44.:11:48.

Scotland, the Tories at ten points ahead of you in Scotland, even

:11:49.:11:54.

Theresa May is more popular than Jeremy Corbyn in Scotland. So I will

:11:55.:11:59.

try again - why are you so sure Jeremy Corbyn could win a general

:12:00.:12:04.

election? What I said when you are talking about Scotland is that I'm

:12:05.:12:08.

the leader of the Scottish Labour Party and I take responsibility for

:12:09.:12:13.

our policies here. Voters said very clearly after the Scottish

:12:14.:12:15.

Parliament election that they didn't have a clear enough sense of what we

:12:16.:12:19.

stood for so I have been advocating a very strong anti-austerity

:12:20.:12:23.

platform, coming up with ideas of how we can oppose the cuts and

:12:24.:12:27.

invest in our future. That is something Jeremy Corbyn also

:12:28.:12:30.

supports but I've also made it clear this weekend that we are opposed to

:12:31.:12:37.

a second independence referendum. I want to bring Scotland back together

:12:38.:12:40.

by focusing on the future and that's why I have been speaking about the

:12:41.:12:45.

federal solution for the UK. I know that Jeremy Corbyn shares that

:12:46.:12:49.

ambition because he is backing the plans for a people's Constitutional

:12:50.:12:53.

Convention. Yes, these are difficult times for the Scottish Labour Party

:12:54.:13:00.

and UK family, but I have a plan in place to turn things around. It will

:13:01.:13:06.

take time though. I'm still not sure why you are so sure the Labour party

:13:07.:13:10.

can win but let me come onto your plan. You want a UK wide

:13:11.:13:15.

Constitutional Convention and that lead to a new Federalist settlement.

:13:16.:13:21.

Is it the policy of the Labour Shadow Cabinet in Westminster to

:13:22.:13:28.

carve England into federal regions? What we support at a UK wide level

:13:29.:13:32.

is the people's constitutional convention. I have been careful to

:13:33.:13:35.

prescribe what I think is in the best interests of Scotland but not

:13:36.:13:39.

to dictate to other parts of the UK what is good for them, that's the

:13:40.:13:44.

point of the people's constitutional convention. You heard Tom Watson say

:13:45.:13:49.

there has to be a UK wide conversation about power, who has it

:13:50.:13:53.

and how it is exercised across England. England hasn't been part of

:13:54.:13:56.

this devolution story over the last 20 years, it is something that

:13:57.:14:02.

happened between Scotland and London or Wales and London. No wonder

:14:03.:14:06.

people in England feel disenfranchised from that. What

:14:07.:14:09.

evidence can you bring to show there is any appetite in England for an

:14:10.:14:15.

English federal solution to England, to carve England into federal

:14:16.:14:20.

regions? Have you spoken to John Prescott about this? He might tell

:14:21.:14:23.

you some of the difficulties. There's not even a debate about that

:14:24.:14:29.

here, Kezia Dugdale, it is fantasy. I speak to John Prescott regularly.

:14:30.:14:33.

What there is a debate about is the idea the world is changing so fast

:14:34.:14:37.

that globalisation is taking jobs away from communities in the

:14:38.:14:40.

north-east, that many working class communities feel left behind, that

:14:41.:14:45.

Westminster feels very far away and the politicians within it feel

:14:46.:14:48.

remote in part of the establishment. People are fed up with power being

:14:49.:14:52.

exercised somewhere else, that's where I think federalism comes in

:14:53.:14:55.

because it's about bringing power closer to people and in many ways

:14:56.:15:00.

it's forced on us because of Brexit. We know the United Kingdom is

:15:01.:15:08.

leaving the European Union so we have to talk about the repatriation

:15:09.:15:11.

of those powers from Brussels to Britain. I want many of those powers

:15:12.:15:14.

to go to the Scottish parliament but where should they go in the English

:15:15.:15:16.

context? It is not as things currently stand the policy of the

:15:17.:15:20.

English Labour Party to carve England into federal regions,

:15:21.:15:21.

correct? It is absolutely the policy of the

:15:22.:15:31.

UK Labour Party to support the people's Constitutional convention

:15:32.:15:35.

to examining these questions. I think it is really important. You're

:15:36.:15:40.

promising the Scottish people a federal solution, and you have not

:15:41.:15:44.

even squared your own party for a federal solution in England. That is

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not true. The UK Labour Party is united on this. I am going to

:15:50.:15:52.

Cardiff next month to meet with Carwyn Jones and various leaders.

:15:53.:15:57.

United on a federal solution? You know as well as I know it is not

:15:58.:16:01.

united on a federal solution. We will have a conversation about power

:16:02.:16:06.

in this country. It is not united on that

:16:07.:16:29.

issue? This is the direction of travel. It is what you heard

:16:30.:16:33.

yesterday from Sadiq Khan, from Tom Watson, when you hear from people

:16:34.:16:35.

like Nick Forbes who lead Newcastle City Council and Labour's Local

:16:36.:16:38.

Government Association. There is an appetite for talking about power.

:16:39.:16:40.

Talking is one thing. We need to have this conversation across the

:16:41.:16:42.

whole of the United Kingdom, to have a reformed United Kingdom. It is a

:16:43.:16:44.

conversation you're offering Scotland, not the policy. Let's come

:16:45.:16:47.

onto the labour made of London. He was in power for your conference. He

:16:48.:16:49.

wrote in the record yesterday, there is no difference between Scottish

:16:50.:16:52.

nationalism and racism. Would you like this opportunity to distance

:16:53.:16:55.

yourself from that absurd claim? I think that Sadiq Khan was very clear

:16:56.:16:59.

yesterday that he was not accusing the SNP of racism. What he was

:17:00.:17:04.

saying clearly is that nationalism by its very nature divides people

:17:05.:17:09.

and communities. That is what I said in my speech yesterday. I am fed up

:17:10.:17:13.

living in a divided and fractured country and society. Our politics is

:17:14.:17:18.

forcing is constantly to pick sides, whether you're a no, leave a remain,

:17:19.:17:23.

it brings out the worst in our politicians and politics. All the

:17:24.:17:27.

consensus we find in the grey areas is lost. That is why am standing

:17:28.:17:31.

under a banner that together we are stronger. We have to come up with

:17:32.:17:46.

ideas and focus on the future. That is why I agree with Sadiq Khan. He

:17:47.:17:50.

said quite clearly in the Daily Record yesterday, and that the last

:17:51.:17:53.

minute he adapted his speech to your conference yesterday, to try and

:17:54.:17:55.

reduce the impact, that there was no difference between Scottish

:17:56.:17:58.

nationalism and racism. Your colleague, and Sarwar, said that

:17:59.:18:01.

even after he had tried to introduce the caveats, all forms of

:18:02.:18:05.

nationalism rely on creating eyes and them. Let's call it for what it

:18:06.:18:13.

is. So you are implying that the Scottish Nationalists are racist.

:18:14.:18:17.

Would you care to distance yourself from that absurd claim? I utterly

:18:18.:18:21.

refute that that is what Sadiq Khan said. I would never suggest that the

:18:22.:18:27.

SNP are an inherently racist party. That does is a disservice. He did

:18:28.:18:33.

not see it. What he did say, however, is that nationalism is

:18:34.:18:37.

divisive. You know that better than anyone. I see your Twitter account.

:18:38.:18:41.

Regularly your attack for the job you do as a journalist. Politics in

:18:42.:18:47.

Scotland is divided on. I do not want to revisit that independence

:18:48.:18:52.

question again for that reason. As leader of the Labour Party, I want

:18:53.:18:55.

to bring our country back together, appeal to people who voted yes and

:18:56.:19:01.

no. That banner, together we are stronger, that is where the answers

:19:02.:19:05.

lie in defaulters can be found. If in response to the Mayor of London,

:19:06.:19:09.

your colleague says, let's call it out for what it is, what is he

:19:10.:19:14.

referring to if he is not implying that national symbol is racist? --

:19:15.:19:22.

and that nationalism is racist? He is saying that it leads to divisive

:19:23.:19:26.

politics. The Labour Party has always advocated that together we

:19:27.:19:30.

are stronger. Saying something is divisive is very different from

:19:31.:19:34.

saying something is racist. That is what the Mayor of London said. That

:19:35.:19:38.

is what your colleague was referring to. He did not. You would really

:19:39.:19:43.

struggle to quote that from the Mayor of London. He talked about

:19:44.:19:49.

being divided by race. What does that mean? I think he was very clear

:19:50.:19:55.

that he was talking about divided politics. There is an appetite the

:19:56.:19:59.

length and breadth of the country to end that divisive politics. That is

:20:00.:20:03.

what I stand for, focusing on the future, bringing people back

:20:04.:20:07.

together, concentrating on what the economy might look like in 20 years'

:20:08.:20:11.

time in coming up with ideas to tackle it today. Thank you for

:20:12.:20:13.

joining us. Thursday's win for Labour

:20:14.:20:14.

in Stoke-on-Trent Central gave some relief to Jeremy Corbyn,

:20:15.:20:16.

but for Ukip leader and defeated Stoke candidate Paul Nuttall

:20:17.:20:19.

there were no consolation prizes. I'm joined now by Mr Nuttall's

:20:20.:20:21.

principal political Welcome to the programme. Good

:20:22.:20:31.

morning. How long will Paul Nuttall survivors Ukip leader, days, weeks,

:20:32.:20:35.

months? You are in danger of not seeing the wood for the trees. Ukip

:20:36.:20:41.

was formed in 1993 with the express purpose, much mocked, of getting

:20:42.:20:46.

Britain out of the European Union. Under the brilliant leadership of

:20:47.:20:49.

Nigel Farage, we were crucial in forcing a vacuous Prime Minister to

:20:50.:20:53.

make a referendum promise he did not want to give. With our friends in

:20:54.:20:59.

Fort leave and other organisations. Mac we know that. Get to the answer.

:21:00.:21:05.

We helped to win that referendum. The iteration of Ukip at the moment

:21:06.:21:10.

that we're in, the primary purpose, we are the guard dog of Brexit.

:21:11.:21:15.

Viewed through that prism, the Stoke by-election was a brilliant success.

:21:16.:21:20.

A brilliant success? We had the Tory candidate that had pumped out

:21:21.:21:25.

publicity for Remain, for Cameron Bradley, preaching the gospel of

:21:26.:21:29.

Brexit. We had a Labour candidate and we know what he really felt

:21:30.:21:34.

about Brexit, preaching the Gospel according to Brexit. You lost. Well

:21:35.:21:36.

the by-election was going on, we had the Labour Party in the House of

:21:37.:21:53.

Commons pass the idea of trickling Article 50 by a landslide. Are

:21:54.:21:55.

passionate thing, the thing that 35,000 Ukip members care about the

:21:56.:21:58.

most, it is an extraordinary achievement. I am very proud. What

:21:59.:22:00.

would you have described as victory as? If we could have got Paul

:22:01.:22:03.

Nuttall into the House of Commons, that would have been a fantastic

:22:04.:22:06.

cherry on the top. Losing was an extraordinary achievement? Many Ukip

:22:07.:22:12.

supporters the Stoke was winnable, but Paul Nuttall's campaign was

:22:13.:22:18.

marred by controversy, Tory voters refuse to vote tactically for Ukip

:22:19.:22:26.

to beat Labour, his campaign, Mr Nuttall is to blame for not winning

:22:27.:22:30.

what was a winnable seat? I do not see that at all. This is

:22:31.:22:34.

counterintuitive, but Jeremy Corbyn did do one thing that made it more

:22:35.:22:39.

difficult for us to win. Fantasy. That was to take Labour into a

:22:40.:22:44.

Brexit position formerly. Just over 50 Labour MPs had voted against

:22:45.:22:49.

triggering Article 50. In political terms, we have intimidated the

:22:50.:22:53.

Labour Party into backing Brexit. How much good is it doing you? It

:22:54.:22:55.

comes to the heart of the problem your party faces.

:22:56.:23:12.

You're struggling to win Tory Eurosceptic voters. For the moment,

:23:13.:23:14.

they seem happy with Theresa May. Stoke shows you're not winning

:23:15.:23:17.

Labour Brexit voters either. If you cannot get the solution Tolisso

:23:18.:23:19.

labour, where does your Broad come from? In terms of the by-election,

:23:20.:23:21.

it came very early for Paul. I'm talking about the future. We have a

:23:22.:23:24.

future agenda, and ideological argument with Jeremy Corbyn's Labour

:23:25.:23:29.

Party, which is wedded to the notion of global citizenship and does not

:23:30.:23:33.

recognise the nation state. We know he spent Christmas sitting around

:23:34.:23:37.

campfires with Mexican Marxist dreaming of global government. We

:23:38.:23:41.

believe in the nation state. We believe that the patriotic working

:23:42.:23:44.

class vote will be receptive to that. Your Broad went down by 9% in

:23:45.:23:51.

Cortland. In Copeland we were squeezed. In Stoke, we were unable

:23:52.:23:56.

to squeeze the Tories, who are on a high. Our agenda is that social

:23:57.:24:02.

solidarity is important but we arrange it in this country by nation

:24:03.:24:05.

and community. We want an immigration system that is not only

:24:06.:24:10.

reducing... We know what you want. I do not think people do. You had a

:24:11.:24:14.

whole by-election to tell people and they did not vote for you and. When

:24:15.:24:19.

Nigel Farage said it was fundamental that you were winner in Stoke, he

:24:20.:24:24.

was wrong? Nigel chooses his own words. I would not rewrite them. It

:24:25.:24:32.

would be a massive advantage to Ukip to have a leader in the House of

:24:33.:24:36.

Commons in time to reply to the budget, Prime Minister's questions

:24:37.:24:38.

and all of that. But we have taken the strategic view that we will

:24:39.:24:42.

fight the Labour Party for the working class vote. It is also true

:24:43.:24:46.

that the Conservatives will make a pitch for the working class vote

:24:47.:24:50.

might as well. All three parties have certain advantages and

:24:51.:24:55.

disadvantages. As part of that page, Nigel Farage said that your leader,

:24:56.:24:59.

Paul Nuttall, should have taken a clear, by which I assume he meant

:25:00.:25:04.

tough, line on immigration. Do you agree? He took a tough line on

:25:05.:25:09.

immigration. He developed that idea at our party conference in the

:25:10.:25:14.

spring. Nigel Farage did not think so? Nigel Farage made his speech

:25:15.:25:17.

before Paul Nuttall made his speech. He said this in the aftermath of the

:25:18.:25:24.

result. Once we have freedom to control and Borders, Paul wants to

:25:25.:25:30.

set up an immigration system that includes an aptitude test, do you

:25:31.:25:33.

have skills that the British economy needs, but also, and attitudes test,

:25:34.:25:40.

do you subscribe to core British values such as gender equality and

:25:41.:25:45.

freedom of expression? We will be making these arguments. It is

:25:46.:25:48.

certainly true that Paul's campaign was thrown off course by,

:25:49.:25:53.

particularly something that we knew the Labour Party had been preparing

:25:54.:25:59.

to run, the smear on the untruths, the implications about Hillsborough.

:26:00.:26:01.

If you knew you should have anticipated it. Alan Banks, he helps

:26:02.:26:08.

to bankroll your party, he said that Mr Nuttall needs to toss out the

:26:09.:26:12.

Tory cabal in Europe, by which he means Douglas Carswell, Neil

:26:13.:26:15.

Hamilton. Should they be stripped of their membership? Of course not. As

:26:16.:26:21.

far as I knew, Alan Banks was a member of the Conservative Party

:26:22.:26:25.

formally. I do not know who this Tory cabal is supposed to be. He

:26:26.:26:29.

says that your party is more like a jumble sale than a political party.

:26:30.:26:33.

He says that the party should make him chairman or they will work. What

:26:34.:26:39.

do you see to that? He has made that statement several times over many

:26:40.:26:42.

months, including if you do not throw out your only MP. Douglas

:26:43.:26:47.

Carswell has managed to win twice under Ukip colours. Should Tibi

:26:48.:26:51.

chairman? I think we have an excellent young chairman at the

:26:52.:26:58.

moment. He is doing a good job. The idea that Leave.EU was as smooth

:26:59.:27:03.

running brilliant machine, that does not sit with the facts as I

:27:04.:27:06.

understand them. Suzanne Evans says it would be no great loss for Ukip

:27:07.:27:11.

if Mr Banks walked out, severed his ties and took his money elsewhere.

:27:12.:27:16.

Is she right. I am always happy people who want to give money and

:27:17.:27:19.

support your party want to stay in the party. The best donors donate

:27:20.:27:24.

and do not seek to dictate. If they are experts in certain fields,

:27:25.:27:29.

people should listen to their views but to have a daughter telling the

:27:30.:27:32.

party leader who should be party chairman, that is a nonstarter. You

:27:33.:27:38.

have described your existing party chairman is excellent. He said it

:27:39.:27:42.

could be 20 years before Ukip wins by-election. Is he being too

:27:43.:27:47.

optimistic? There is a general election coming up in the years'

:27:48.:27:51.

time. We will be aiming to win seats in that. Before that, we will be the

:27:52.:27:56.

guard dog for Brexit, to make sure this extraordinary achievement of a

:27:57.:28:01.

little party... You are guard dog without a kennel, you cannot get

:28:02.:28:05.

seat? We're keeping the big establishment parties to do the will

:28:06.:28:10.

of the people. If we achieve nothing else at all, that will be a

:28:11.:28:13.

magnificent achievement. Thank you very much.

:28:14.:28:15.

Sweden isn't somewhere we talk about often

:28:16.:28:17.

should because this week it was pulled into

:28:18.:28:20.

the global spotlight, thanks

:28:21.:28:21.

Last weekend, Mr Trump was mocked for referring to an incident that

:28:22.:28:30.

had occurred last night in Sweden as a result of the country's open

:28:31.:28:33.

Critics were quick to point out that no such incident had occurred

:28:34.:28:37.

and Mr Trump later clarified on Twitter and he was talking

:28:38.:28:40.

about a report he had watched on Fox News.

:28:41.:28:43.

But as if to prove he was onto something,

:28:44.:28:45.

next day a riot broke out in a Stockholm suburb

:28:46.:28:48.

with a large migrant population, following unrest in such areas

:28:49.:28:50.

So what has been Sweden's experience of migration?

:28:51.:29:00.

In 2015, a record 162,000 people claimed asylum there, the second

:29:01.:29:03.

That number dropped to 29,000 in 2016 after the country introduced

:29:04.:29:10.

border restrictions and stopped offering permanent

:29:11.:29:11.

Tensions have risen, along with claims of links to crime,

:29:12.:29:19.

although official statistics do not provide evidence of a refugee driven

:29:20.:29:22.

Nigel Farage defended Mr Trump, claiming this week that migrants

:29:23.:29:30.

have led to a dramatic rise in sexual offences.

:29:31.:29:33.

Although the country does have the highest reported

:29:34.:29:35.

rate of rape in Europe, Swedish authorities say recent rises

:29:36.:29:38.

were due to changes to how rape and sex crimes are recorded.

:29:39.:29:43.

Aside from the issue of crime, Sweden has struggled

:29:44.:29:45.

Levels of inequality between natives and migrants when it comes

:29:46.:29:51.

Unemployment rates are three times higher for foreign-born workers

:29:52.:29:54.

We're joined now by Laila Naraghi, she's a Swedish MP from the

:29:55.:30:07.

governing Social Democratic Party, and by the author and

:30:08.:30:09.

The Swedish political establishment was outraged by Mr Trump's remarks,

:30:10.:30:25.

pointing to a riot that hadn't taken place, then a few nights later

:30:26.:30:29.

serious riots did break out in a largely migrant suburb of Stockholm

:30:30.:30:34.

so he wasn't far out, was he? I think he was far out because he is

:30:35.:30:38.

misleading the public with how he uses these statistics. I think it is

:30:39.:30:43.

important to remember that the violence has decreased in Sweden for

:30:44.:30:47.

the past 20 years and research shows there is no evidence that indicate

:30:48.:30:51.

that immigration leads to crime and so I think it is far out. The social

:30:52.:30:59.

unrest in these different areas is not because of their ethical

:31:00.:31:03.

backgrounds of these people living there but more about social economic

:31:04.:31:10.

reasons. OK, no evidence migrants are responsible for any kind of

:31:11.:31:14.

crime? This story reminds me after what happened to the Charlie Hebdo

:31:15.:31:21.

attacks in Paris when also a Fox News commentator said something that

:31:22.:31:26.

was outlandish about Paris and the Mayor of Paris threatened to sue Fox

:31:27.:31:30.

News, saying you are making our city look bad. It's a bit like that

:31:31.:31:35.

because the truth on this lies between Donald Trump on the Swedish

:31:36.:31:40.

authorities on this. Sweden and Swedish government is very reluctant

:31:41.:31:45.

to admit any downsides of its own migration policy and particularly

:31:46.:31:48.

the migration it hard in 2015 but there are very obvious downsides

:31:49.:31:54.

because Sweden is not a country that needs a non-skilled labour force

:31:55.:32:00.

which doesn't speak Swedish. What was raised as the matter of

:32:01.:32:05.

evidence, what is the evidence? First of all if I can say so the

:32:06.:32:09.

rape statistics in Sweden that have been cited are familiar with the

:32:10.:32:13.

rape statistics across other countries that have seen similar

:32:14.:32:17.

forms of migration. Danish authorities and the Norwegian

:32:18.:32:22.

authorities have recorded a similar thing. It is not done by ethnicity

:32:23.:32:27.

so we don't know. And this is part of the problem. It is again a lot of

:32:28.:32:33.

lies and rumours going about. When it is about for example rape, it is

:32:34.:32:38.

difficult to compare the statistics because in Sweden for example many

:32:39.:32:43.

crimes that in other countries are labelled as bodily harm or assault

:32:44.:32:48.

are in Sweden labelled as rape. Also how it is counted because if a woman

:32:49.:32:53.

goes to the police and reports that her husband or boyfriend has raped

:32:54.:33:01.

her, and done it every night for one year, in Sweden that is counted as

:33:02.:33:07.

365 offences. Something is going wrong, I look at the recent news

:33:08.:33:11.

from Sweden. Six Afghan child refugees committed suicide in the

:33:12.:33:14.

last six months, unemployment among recent migrants now five times

:33:15.:33:21.

higher than among non-migrants. We have seen gang violence in Malmo

:33:22.:33:26.

where a British child was killed by a grenade, rioting in Stockholm.

:33:27.:33:31.

Police in Sweden say there are 53 areas of the country where it is now

:33:32.:33:34.

dangerous to patrol. Something has gone wrong. Let me get back to what

:33:35.:33:41.

I think is the core of this debate if I may and that is the right for

:33:42.:33:46.

people fleeing war and political persecution to seek asylum, that is

:33:47.:33:50.

a human right. In Sweden we don't think we can do everything, but we

:33:51.:33:55.

want to live up to our obligation, every country has an obligation to

:33:56.:33:59.

receive asylum seekers. But you have changed your policy on that because

:34:00.:34:05.

having taken 163,001 year alone, you have then closed your borders, I

:34:06.:34:09.

think very wisely, closed the border which means 10,000 people per day at

:34:10.:34:14.

one point were walking from Denmark in to Malmo, you rightly changed

:34:15.:34:19.

that so he realised whatever ones aspirations in terms of asylum, it

:34:20.:34:22.

sometimes meets reality and Sweden is meeting the reality of this.

:34:23.:34:29.

Let's respond to that. We are not naive, we know we cannot do

:34:30.:34:32.

everything but we want to try to do our share as we think other

:34:33.:34:36.

countries also need to do their share. But let me say that, if you

:34:37.:34:41.

look at what the World Economic Forum is saying about our country

:34:42.:34:44.

they show we are in the top of many rankings, the best country to live

:34:45.:34:48.

in, to age in, to have children in, to start into -- to start

:34:49.:34:57.

enterprise. Why have you not been so good at integrating migrants? The

:34:58.:35:04.

unemployment rate is five times higher among migrants than

:35:05.:35:08.

non-migrants and that's the highest ratio of any country in the EU and

:35:09.:35:12.

the OECD, why have you not been able to integrate the people you have

:35:13.:35:18.

brought in for humanitarian reasons? I'm sure there are things we can do

:35:19.:35:22.

much better of course but if you look for example at the immigration

:35:23.:35:26.

that came in the 90s from the Balkans, they are well integrated

:35:27.:35:31.

and contributing to our society. They are starting enterprises and

:35:32.:35:33.

working in different fields of society, and they help our country.

:35:34.:35:41.

Why have they not got jobs, the migrants that have come in? It takes

:35:42.:35:48.

time. In the 90s we managed it and I'm sure we can do it again. Can I

:35:49.:35:53.

put this into some context, it is clear Sweden has got problems as a

:35:54.:35:56.

result of the number of migrants that come in, whether it is as bad

:35:57.:36:01.

as Mr Trump and others make out is another matter, but perhaps I can

:36:02.:36:05.

put it into context. Malmo, which has been at the centre of many of

:36:06.:36:10.

these migrant problems, its homicide rate is three per hundred thousand.

:36:11.:36:16.

Chicago, 28 per 100,000. It may have problems but they are not huge. No,

:36:17.:36:22.

they are pretty huge and I think they will grow. The Balkan refugees

:36:23.:36:27.

into Sweden in the 90s did bring a lot of problems and Sweden did for

:36:28.:36:31.

the first time see serious ethnic gang rivalries. There was an upsurge

:36:32.:36:35.

in gang-related violence that has gone on since. The situation in

:36:36.:36:41.

Malmo in particular is exaggerated by some people, there's no doubt

:36:42.:36:45.

about that, I have been there many times and it is undoubtedly

:36:46.:36:48.

exaggerated by some, it is also vastly unpersuaded by the Swedish

:36:49.:36:54.

authorities. -- understated. In 2010, one in ten Jews in Malmo

:36:55.:37:05.

registered some form of attack on them. It got so bad that in 2010

:37:06.:37:14.

people offered to escort Jews... You have had a good say and I have got

:37:15.:37:18.

to be fair here, what do you say to that, Laila Naraghi? There are

:37:19.:37:25.

people trying to frame our country in a certain way to push their own

:37:26.:37:29.

agenda. I regret that President Trump is trying to slander our

:37:30.:37:35.

country. But what about the specific point on Malmo? If you speak to

:37:36.:37:39.

people in Malmo and also to different congregations, they say

:37:40.:37:43.

they are working together with the authorities to improve this. I say

:37:44.:37:47.

again, there are a lot of people trying to spread rumours and lies.

:37:48.:37:52.

Your situation is very like the situation we had in Britain when we

:37:53.:37:57.

have these situations in Rotherham and elsewhere. 1400 girls were raped

:37:58.:38:02.

in Rotherham before police even admitted it was going on. That

:38:03.:38:06.

happened in Britain in the last decade, a similar phenomenon. An

:38:07.:38:10.

upsurge in particularly sexual and other forms of violence and then

:38:11.:38:14.

total denial by an entire political class is now something that is

:38:15.:38:19.

happening in Sweden. I see it in Swedish authorities and the denial

:38:20.:38:22.

that comes up and the desire to laugh and dismiss Trump but he's not

:38:23.:38:27.

answer nothing and that's a painful thing for any society to want to

:38:28.:38:34.

admit to. There are number of Swedes who think the establishment is

:38:35.:38:41.

covering up the true statistics, that you don't break crime down by

:38:42.:38:45.

ethnic crimes, people are suspicious of the centre-left and centre-right

:38:46.:38:51.

parties now in Sweden. There is no denial and no cover-up. This is what

:38:52.:38:54.

I'm speaking about when I say people are trying to frame it in a certain

:38:55.:38:58.

way. The social unrest is not because of the ethnical background

:38:59.:39:02.

of the people living there but rather because of different

:39:03.:39:06.

socioeconomics conditions. There is no research that shows

:39:07.:39:12.

immigration... But you don't do the research into it. Swedish

:39:13.:39:15.

authorities deliberately ensure you cannot carry out such research and

:39:16.:39:19.

after the attacks in Cologne in 2015 it was the first time then that the

:39:20.:39:23.

Swedish authorities and press admitted that similar sexual

:39:24.:39:27.

molestation have been going on for years in Sweden. Is it right to

:39:28.:39:33.

think, given the problem is maybe not as bad as many people make out

:39:34.:39:38.

but clearly problems, given these problems, is the age of mass asylum

:39:39.:39:43.

seeking for Sweden over? You have cut the numbers by 80% coming in

:39:44.:39:48.

last year compared with 2015, is it over while you concentrate on

:39:49.:39:53.

getting right the people that you have there already? We want to do

:39:54.:39:57.

our share, we have done a lot and now we are concentrating of course

:39:58.:40:00.

on integration and making sure people get a job, and also

:40:01.:40:14.

on big welfare investments because it's important to remember that for

:40:15.:40:17.

eight years Sweden were governed by a government that prioritised big

:40:18.:40:19.

tax cuts instead of investment in welfare. It may just not work. I am

:40:20.:40:23.

grateful to you both, we have to leave it there.

:40:24.:40:24.

It's coming up to 11:40am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:40:25.:40:27.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:40:28.:40:29.

the Week Ahead, when we'll be asking if the Government is facing defeat

:40:30.:40:35.

Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.

:40:36.:40:45.

In a few minutes, are human rights in Wales under threat?

:40:46.:40:47.

A leading barrister tells us that UK government plans

:40:48.:40:49.

And all change? How the train arriving in 2018

:40:50.:40:53.

could be very different from the service we get now.

:40:54.:41:01.

But first, Ukip has portrayed itself as a party which can supplant Labour

:41:02.:41:04.

in its heartland seats, but in last week's two by-elections,

:41:05.:41:06.

How will it fare in the local elections in Wales in a few weeks?

:41:07.:41:12.

And has it lost its raison d'etre since the Brexit vote?

:41:13.:41:14.

Its leader in Wales, Neil Hamilton, is here with me now.

:41:15.:41:22.

Good morning. Regarding last week 's by-elections. Paul Nuttall Seeing

:41:23.:41:37.

that they should be winning the seat. But the party failed to do

:41:38.:41:49.

that. I think it was a mistake at thinking that people had voted to

:41:50.:41:53.

leave the European Union was naturally going to mean would also

:41:54.:42:03.

fought for hours in the by-election. Because the Conservative Party are a

:42:04.:42:08.

Brexit bones of sorts, despite having a remain leader, it gets

:42:09.:42:17.

harder for us. We feel to create the sort of momentum we required. The

:42:18.:42:28.

Conservatives know seem to have taken on the mantle of the

:42:29.:42:38.

pro-Brexit party. In many ways, the main selling point of Ukip as

:42:39.:42:52.

vanished. In the last 20 years, the party has become part of the

:42:53.:42:57.

domestic political scene. We need to focus on other issues. One of the

:42:58.:43:06.

things I was focusing on was cutting the aid budget and putting that into

:43:07.:43:22.

the NHS. For people in Stoke Central, the issues were not just

:43:23.:43:27.

the European Union, they were very focused on local issues, such as

:43:28.:43:35.

local hospitals and other services. I think really needed the candidate

:43:36.:43:43.

who was from there, who had plenty of time to get their message across.

:43:44.:43:52.

You said the party was an essential part of British politics. We have

:43:53.:43:59.

six or seven members in the assembly. The Labour Party can only

:44:00.:44:10.

have a majority with the consent of other parties, so we are an

:44:11.:44:18.

important voice in the country. A lot of opinion polls suggest that we

:44:19.:44:22.

were -- we do better now than we did last year. But the party had been

:44:23.:44:38.

rooted in very bitter infighting. We have been involved in all of the

:44:39.:44:42.

debates. As an opposition party, we cannot always get what we want. At

:44:43.:44:57.

the moment, the Labour Party and the Nationalists unable to say that they

:44:58.:45:03.

have been able to do stuff. Ukip cannot do that. Will they have come

:45:04.:45:11.

to mini arrangements over these things. There are some issues which

:45:12.:45:16.

we would be able to influence government policy, but only if they

:45:17.:45:20.

are prepared to bargain with us. If not, they will go elsewhere. But you

:45:21.:45:26.

are not an essential part of the picture then. We are, because in an

:45:27.:45:34.

election, people will vote for us in substantial numbers, based on the

:45:35.:45:39.

last election. That will affect the number of votes that other parties

:45:40.:45:43.

get. We will play an important part in the debate on all the issues. We

:45:44.:45:52.

want to democratise the NHS in the country for example. We want to

:45:53.:45:55.

become more responsive to local needs. An essential election coming

:45:56.:46:11.

up this year, the council elections. While everybody wanting to vote for

:46:12.:46:22.

Ukip across Wales have a chance of doing so? No, we do not have the

:46:23.:46:26.

resources to do that. We will not have candidates setting everywhere.

:46:27.:46:37.

We got 14% in the general election. The Conservatives only got about

:46:38.:46:47.

20%. We would like candidates in every media, but not necessarily in

:46:48.:46:55.

every ward. Is that the problem. You see you are an essential part of the

:46:56.:47:00.

political scene here, but you cannot fumed enough candidates when it

:47:01.:47:02.

comes the likes of council elections. I am mostly just the

:47:03.:47:22.

leader and the Assembly. That is not a formal leader in Wales. I am just

:47:23.:47:38.

operating within the Assembly. You are not filling me with confidence

:47:39.:47:41.

that you are looking forward to the council elections. You say you are

:47:42.:47:48.

talking about domestic issues, it does not get much more domestic than

:47:49.:47:54.

council elections. We are a small party compared to the others. We did

:47:55.:47:59.

not have the infrastructure which has been built up over many

:48:00.:48:08.

generations. It is more for us to spread our resources thinly. But we

:48:09.:48:12.

will do the very best we can to have a major impact. News in the

:48:13.:48:21.

newspapers today that Arron Banks has given an ultimatum to the party

:48:22.:48:22.

leader. What do you think of? He is not even

:48:23.:48:44.

a member of party. He keeps making this assertion that he gives us lots

:48:45.:48:48.

of money. I do not think he is given as money for many years. He made the

:48:49.:48:54.

disastrous intervention is Stoke Central. He is a rich person can

:48:55.:48:59.

just buy anything he wants, so he thinks. He is a man with a big

:49:00.:49:13.

growth and a big green. -- bigmouth. With that split the party? I do not

:49:14.:49:19.

think so. He has been training to do this for a long time. I do not think

:49:20.:49:27.

it would make a major difference. You mentioned at the beginning,

:49:28.:49:40.

trying to take Wales away from other parties. As the direction and trying

:49:41.:49:45.

to take over Labour Party or Conservative Party voters with you?

:49:46.:49:54.

We are having the likes of fairly unique positions on the lakes of

:49:55.:50:07.

over CD. -- overseas E. We think we should cut fuel and electricity

:50:08.:50:14.

bills by upping the subsidies to farmers from the likes of wind

:50:15.:50:22.

farms. We have various very unique positions with regard to the NHS and

:50:23.:50:30.

we need to put their message across. We will do just that.

:50:31.:50:33.

A leading human rights barrister has told this programme human rights

:50:34.:50:36.

in Wales could be eroded, if UK government plans come to pass.

:50:37.:50:38.

Ministers at Westminster have proposed replacing

:50:39.:50:40.

the Human Rights Act, which could curtail the role

:50:41.:50:42.

AMs in Cardiff Bay are now looking into how that could affect Wales,

:50:43.:50:46.

When you think of human rights, what comes to mind?

:50:47.:50:51.

Is it images of refugees or war crimes and torture?

:50:52.:50:53.

Well, it is a field that has an impact on all of our daily lives.

:50:54.:50:57.

Now, with suggestions that Westminster is looking

:50:58.:50:59.

to alter human rights laws, the Assembly in Cardiff Bay

:51:00.:51:01.

is looking at how any such moves might affect Wales.

:51:02.:51:03.

From children to prisoners, human rights laws protect all of us,

:51:04.:51:11.

but there is no denying it is a broad and complex topic.

:51:12.:51:14.

The committee have tried to narrow their inquiry down

:51:15.:51:16.

to three key issues - the impact of Brexit,

:51:17.:51:19.

the possible impact of the UK's government's proposal to repeal

:51:20.:51:21.

the 1998 Human Rights Act and replace it with a Bill of Rights

:51:22.:51:24.

and public perceptions of human rights laws here in Wales.

:51:25.:51:27.

But some are concerned that the pillars which support our

:51:28.:51:29.

way of life, including our human rights, are under threat.

:51:30.:51:39.

Just to put it into some context, there was existing UK legislation

:51:40.:51:42.

dating back to the '70s that protected, for example, employee

:51:43.:51:44.

right against discrimination, so it is important to remember that.

:51:45.:51:52.

But, yes, absolutely, I do think there will be a slow

:51:53.:51:54.

erosion of the existing rights and protections that really is line

:51:55.:51:57.

With many possible changes afoot with regard to human rights laws,

:51:58.:52:11.

the Assembly's Equality Commission is looking at their

:52:12.:52:13.

At a time when there is so much tension, I think, and worry,

:52:14.:52:17.

as to whether people's rights, whether it is at work,

:52:18.:52:20.

whether it is not to be discriminated against,

:52:21.:52:22.

whether it is around the issue of asylum seekers and refugees,

:52:23.:52:24.

there is a lot of worry that some of the inclusive practices we have

:52:25.:52:28.

built in Wales are under threat at the moment because of world

:52:29.:52:31.

events and events in the UK and we have to guard against that.

:52:32.:52:42.

There have been debates about the issue of prisoners' votes

:52:43.:52:45.

and not being able to deport some terrorists, due to human

:52:46.:52:48.

rights laws, do you think there is a problem with public

:52:49.:52:51.

There can be a problem with public perception,

:52:52.:52:58.

but it can mainly come from media sensationalism around

:52:59.:53:00.

I think, if we look at the general experience of people in Wales

:53:01.:53:04.

and well beyond Wales, their everyday lives are improved,

:53:05.:53:06.

their rights are safeguarded and protected by that human rights

:53:07.:53:09.

approach and the international standards that apply.

:53:10.:53:26.

Among the charities who have already responded to the Assembly committee,

:53:27.:53:28.

The Royal National Institute for the Blind said:

:53:29.:53:38.

The Older People's Commisioner for Wales said:

:53:39.:53:48.

Chwarae Teg, which helps women achieve more in the workplace,

:53:49.:53:50.

This gay rights march on Cardiff's Queens Street in 1986,

:53:51.:54:06.

compared with the Pride Parade on the same street in August of last

:54:07.:54:09.

year demonstrates how far LGBT rights have developed over the past

:54:10.:54:11.

30 years, but some are worried much of the progress could be undone.

:54:12.:54:19.

Since the introduction of the Human Rights Act,

:54:20.:54:20.

there have been several rulings in UK and EU courts

:54:21.:54:23.

which have advanced legal protection for LGBT people.

:54:24.:54:27.

Our concern is, that without those protections,

:54:28.:54:31.

we could see progress going back decades.

:54:32.:54:34.

In a week where US President Donald Trump rescinded transgender bathroom

:54:35.:54:37.

rules from the Obama era, do you think this

:54:38.:54:39.

Well, three of the principles of human rights are that

:54:40.:54:47.

they are indivisible, universal and inalienable.

:54:48.:54:51.

We are seeing these principles being attacked on a global scale.

:54:52.:54:53.

We are seeing them being questioned by politicians in the UK and also

:54:54.:54:56.

by the Trump administration, with the idea that it is up to individual

:54:57.:54:59.

states or services to decide whether they respect the rights

:55:00.:55:02.

A Ministry of Justice spokesperson told us,

:55:03.:55:07.

"The UK government remains committed to reforming the domestic

:55:08.:55:09.

"human rights framework and that they will consider further

:55:10.:55:11.

"the Bill of Rights, once Brexit arrangements are finalised."

:55:12.:55:19.

All Assembly laws have to comply with human rights.

:55:20.:55:21.

With Theresa May repeatedly saying tha Britain would be better served

:55:22.:55:25.

by leaving the European Convention on Human Rights,

:55:26.:55:27.

The Equality Committee says their inquiry

:55:28.:55:31.

is instrumental in ensuring that the Assembly will be prepared

:55:32.:55:34.

for whatever changes are made in the future.

:55:35.:55:41.

Now, few things wind people up more than the state of our trains,

:55:42.:55:44.

so how would you like to see Welsh trains run?

:55:45.:55:47.

The franchise for most of the tracks which run in Wales

:55:48.:55:49.

is up for grabs in 2018 and the consultation

:55:50.:55:51.

Some say there is a chance for a once-in-a-lifetime change.

:55:52.:55:55.

One man who knows more than most about trains

:55:56.:55:59.

is Professor Stuart Cole, who is here now.

:56:00.:56:13.

Next year, it is all up for grabs. What could actually change? One

:56:14.:56:24.

company will win the franchise. There are four competitors. The

:56:25.:56:32.

current company Arriva is one of them. They will have the

:56:33.:56:35.

responsibility for running all of the genes within the country. He

:56:36.:56:48.

will be responsible for all the local services. Is this the chance

:56:49.:56:57.

that the Welsh scum and hers to see this is what we want to see this is

:56:58.:57:02.

what you are asked to provide? They have said questions to the Quartet

:57:03.:57:10.

of bidders. That was the first stage of the process. They will have

:57:11.:57:21.

outlined the key strategies. There was a chance for them to pick ideas

:57:22.:57:28.

with regard to the likes of electrification. They have also been

:57:29.:57:34.

asked about frequency, queer the priorities would lie and those would

:57:35.:57:40.

go into what is currently the lilting pot. All the heads of the

:57:41.:57:48.

franchises have been interviewed and the government will then take the

:57:49.:57:52.

best of what they can gain from all over, with regard to affordability.

:57:53.:58:01.

Is there an issue with forcing is forecasting the capacity demand will

:58:02.:58:10.

be in a decade 's time? It is difficult to do that. Things change.

:58:11.:58:18.

The existing franchise was awarded this like 14 years ago. Since then,

:58:19.:58:24.

the number of people on trains has shot up. It has go up by about 8%

:58:25.:58:36.

annually. A lot of things with Robin changes affect demand. The likes of

:58:37.:58:46.

concerns about the environment coming from the amount of cars on

:58:47.:58:49.

the road, things like that have been much more to the forefront in the

:58:50.:58:56.

last 15 years and that has helped push the numbers up. But it is very

:58:57.:59:02.

hard to forecast. The government says it wants to have this

:59:03.:59:07.

not-for-profit model. As a possible to have that sort of winning

:59:08.:59:14.

franchise? The not-for-profit, not for dividend, element could be

:59:15.:59:22.

achieved, in the same way as that is the ethos of transport for London.

:59:23.:59:31.

The law currently requires a private company to run the trains one behalf

:59:32.:59:46.

of transport for wheels. How easy is it to be profitable here? We need so

:59:47.:59:56.

many genes to go over so many people. How easy is it for the

:59:57.:00:02.

government to be able to insist that that all of the healing demands are

:00:03.:00:08.

met from the four franchise is trying to get the contract? It may

:00:09.:00:15.

come down to how much the government is willing to subsidise? A lot of

:00:16.:00:28.

that has to do with that. The government will obviously try and

:00:29.:00:31.

maximise what they can get from each of the train companies. It was to

:00:32.:00:36.

get as much from the train company for itself. But it is not just about

:00:37.:00:45.

purely money for anyone, but also value for money for the customer.

:00:46.:00:51.

Those are the kinds of questions that will be asked. That is what the

:00:52.:00:55.

companies have been asked to answer solutions to. They will be looking

:00:56.:01:00.

at the bottom line, the profit margins. That is the way it works.

:01:01.:01:09.

In present legislation, that has to be a private company and they all

:01:10.:01:17.

have to be within the United Kingdom bidding for a government contract.

:01:18.:01:20.

If the government has for too much and the company says they cannot do

:01:21.:01:25.

that, will thus have to go back to the consultation fees because some

:01:26.:01:31.

of them walk away? There is a possibility of the problem. A lot of

:01:32.:01:40.

extra research work has had to be done the market and into the issue

:01:41.:01:49.

of taking over other potential lanes. Whether or not companies

:01:50.:01:59.

would pull out of a stage or come around and said it will give as a

:02:00.:02:04.

500 million subsidy with as we think it needs to be 700 million, they

:02:05.:02:13.

would either say they have to either find additional funding or start the

:02:14.:02:18.

whole process again. I think someone will find it acceptable to find it,

:02:19.:02:29.

to run the service that we may want in the way the government wants. It

:02:30.:02:37.

is very much a matter of how much money can be pulled out here for

:02:38.:02:41.

this. If they can pool at the amounts of money, they are talking

:02:42.:02:52.

about brand-new trains. We have got trains which are 40 years old. We

:02:53.:03:01.

have got all that trains. If it is to be transformational, we need new

:03:02.:03:09.

trains, additional frequency and a fleet which is workable and achieve

:03:10.:03:14.

all of the things the passengers require in the passenger experience.

:03:15.:03:20.

That is what they should be looking at. Is that possible with the

:03:21.:03:29.

profitability framework of the company and coupled with the

:03:30.:03:31.

government subsidy? This programme, of course,

:03:32.:03:33.

unlike some trains, always runs exactly on time!

:03:34.:03:35.

That is it for another week. Welcome back. Article 50, which

:03:36.:03:54.

triggers the beginning of Britain leaving the European Union and start

:03:55.:03:59.

negotiations, is winding its way through the Lords in this coming

:04:00.:04:04.

week. Tarzan has made an intervention, let's just see the

:04:05.:04:10.

headline from the Mail on Sunday. Lord Heseltine, Michael Heseltine,

:04:11.:04:15.

my fightback starts here, he is going to defy Theresa May. I divide

:04:16.:04:18.

one Prime Minister over the poll tax, I'm ready to defy this one in

:04:19.:04:23.

the Lords over Brexit. There we go, that's going to happen this week. We

:04:24.:04:28.

will see how far he gets. I don't think he will get very far, I don't

:04:29.:04:33.

think Loyalist Tory MPs and Brexiteers are quaking in their

:04:34.:04:38.

boots at the prospect of a rebellion led by Michael Heseltine. I sense

:04:39.:04:42.

that many Tory MPs are already moving on to the next question about

:04:43.:04:46.

Brexit, and the discussion over how much it will cost us to come out.

:04:47.:04:51.

The fact they are already debating that suggests to me they feel things

:04:52.:04:57.

will go fairly smoothly in terms of the legislation. When I spoke to the

:04:58.:05:01.

Labour leader in the Lords last week on the daily politics, she said she

:05:02.:05:06.

was going to push hard for the kind of amendments Lord has all-time is

:05:07.:05:13.

talking about and they would bring that back to the Commons. But if the

:05:14.:05:19.

Commons pinged it back to the Lords with the amendments taken out, she

:05:20.:05:22.

made it clear that was the end of it. Is that right? That's about

:05:23.:05:29.

right. This is probably really a large destruction. There will be to

:05:30.:05:33.

micro issues that come up in the Lords, one is on the future of EU

:05:34.:05:39.

nationals, that could be voted on as soon as this Wednesday, and then the

:05:40.:05:44.

main vote in the Lords on a week on Tuesday, when there is this question

:05:45.:05:48.

of what sort of vote will MPs and peers get at the end of the Brexit

:05:49.:05:52.

process and that is what has all-time is talking about. He wants

:05:53.:05:56.

to make sure there are guarantees in place. The kind of things peers are

:05:57.:06:01.

looking for are pretty moderate and the Government have hinted they

:06:02.:06:03.

could deliver on both of them already. But they are still not

:06:04.:06:09.

prepared... Amber Rudd said they were not prepared... They may say

:06:10.:06:15.

yes we are going to do that but they won't allow whatever that is to be

:06:16.:06:20.

enshrined in the legislation. The question is whether we think this is

:06:21.:06:24.

dancing on the head of a pin. The Government have already promised

:06:25.:06:27.

something in the House of Commons, but will they write it down, I don't

:06:28.:06:30.

think that's the biggest problem in the world. In a sense this is a

:06:31.:06:35.

great magicians trick by Theresa May because it is not the most important

:06:36.:06:41.

thing. The most important thing in Brexit is going on in those

:06:42.:06:44.

committees behind closed doors when they are trying to work out what the

:06:45.:06:47.

next migration system is for Britain and there are some interesting,

:06:48.:06:51.

indeed toxic proposals, but at the moment Downing Street are happy to

:06:52.:06:56.

let us talk about the constitutional propriety of what MPs are doing over

:06:57.:07:02.

the next eight days. It seems to me the irony is that if we had a second

:07:03.:07:06.

chamber that can claim some kind of democratic legitimacy, which the one

:07:07.:07:11.

we have cannot, it would be able to cause the Government more trouble on

:07:12.:07:16.

this, it would be more robust. Absolutely. I saw the interview we

:07:17.:07:19.

did with the Labour Leader of the Lords, they are very conscious, of

:07:20.:07:28.

the fact they are not elected and have limited powers. She was clear

:07:29.:07:33.

to you they would not impede the timetable for triggering Article 50

:07:34.:07:37.

so we might get a bit of theatre, Michael Heseltine might deliver a

:07:38.:07:42.

brilliant speech. It is interesting that Euroscepticism gun under

:07:43.:07:47.

Margaret Thatcher in the Tory party but two offer senior ministers Ken

:07:48.:07:52.

Clarke and Michael Heseltine are the most prominent opponents now but

:07:53.:07:55.

they will change nothing at this point. She will have the space to

:07:56.:07:59.

trigger Article 50 within her timetable. Let's move on. Let me

:08:00.:08:04.

show you a picture tweeted by Nigel Farage.

:08:05.:08:10.

That is Nigel Farage and a small group of people having dinner, and

:08:11.:08:18.

within that small group of people is the president of the United States,

:08:19.:08:21.

and it was taken in the last couple of days. This would suggest that if

:08:22.:08:27.

he can command that amount of the President's time in a small group of

:08:28.:08:32.

people, then he's actually rather close to the president. Make no

:08:33.:08:37.

mistake about it, Nigel Farage is now to and fro Washington more

:08:38.:08:40.

regularly than perhaps he is here. Hopefully that LBC programme is

:08:41.:08:48.

recorded over in the state. He's not only close to the president but to a

:08:49.:08:53.

series of people within the administration. That relationship

:08:54.:08:57.

there is a remarkable one and one to keep an eye on. Will the main

:08:58.:09:01.

government be tempted to tap into that relationship at any time or is

:09:02.:09:08.

it just seething with anger? You can feel a ripple of discontentment over

:09:09.:09:14.

this. We are in the middle of negotiating the state visit and the

:09:15.:09:18.

sort of pomp and circumstance and what kind of greeting Britain should

:09:19.:09:22.

give Donald Trump when he comes over later in the year. There is a great

:09:23.:09:26.

deal of neurotic thought going into what that should look like, but one

:09:27.:09:31.

of the most interesting things about our relationship with Donald Trump

:09:32.:09:34.

is that there is a nervousness among some Cabinet ministers that we are

:09:35.:09:37.

being seen to go too far, too fast with the prospect of a trade deal.

:09:38.:09:42.

Even amongst some Brexiteer cabinet ministers, they worry we won't get a

:09:43.:09:46.

very good trade deal with the US and we are tolerably placing a lot of

:09:47.:09:50.

stalled by it. When we see the kind of deal they want to pitch with us

:09:51.:09:54.

there might be some pulling back and that could be an awkward moment in

:09:55.:10:02.

terms of our relationship, and no doubt Nigel at that term -- at that

:10:03.:10:05.

point will accuse the UK of doing the dirty on Donald Trump. If there

:10:06.:10:11.

was a deal, would they get it through the House of Commons? Nigel

:10:12.:10:19.

Farage is having dinner with the president, not bad as a kind of

:10:20.:10:23.

lifestyle but he's politically rootless, he won't be an MEP much

:10:24.:10:27.

longer so if you look at where is his political base to build on this

:10:28.:10:31.

great time he's having, there is one. Given that there is one I think

:10:32.:10:36.

he's just having a great time and it isn't much more significant than

:10:37.:10:40.

that. No? There's a lot to be said for having a great time. You are

:10:41.:10:52.

having a great time. Let's just look, because of the dominance of

:10:53.:10:58.

the Government we kind of it nor there are problems piling up, only

:10:59.:11:03.

what, ten days with the Budget to go, piling up for Mrs May and her

:11:04.:11:08.

government. The business rates which has alarmed a lot of Tories, this

:11:09.:11:14.

disability cuts which are really a serious problem for the Government,

:11:15.:11:18.

and the desperate need for more money for social care. There are

:11:19.:11:23.

other issues, there are problems there and they involve spending

:11:24.:11:26.

money. Absolutely and some people argue Theresa May has only one

:11:27.:11:30.

Monday and that is to deliver Brexit but it is impossible as a Prime

:11:31.:11:35.

Minister to ignore everything else. And she doesn't want to either. The

:11:36.:11:41.

bubbling issue of social care and the NHS is the biggest single

:11:42.:11:45.

problem for her in the weeks and months ahead, she has got to come up

:11:46.:11:49.

with something. And Mr Hammond will have to loosen his belt a little

:11:50.:11:54.

bit. I think he will in relation to the NHS, he didn't mention it in the

:11:55.:11:58.

Autumn Statement, which was remarkable, and he cannot get away

:11:59.:12:02.

with not mentioning it this time. If he mentions it, it has to be in a

:12:03.:12:05.

positive context in some way or another and it is one example of

:12:06.:12:10.

many. She is both strong because she is so far ahead in the opinion

:12:11.:12:14.

polls, but this in tray is one of the most daunting a Prime Minister

:12:15.:12:18.

has faced in recent times I think. Here is what will happen on Budget

:12:19.:12:24.

day, money will be more money, magically found down the back of the

:12:25.:12:31.

Treasury sofa. The projections are that he has wiggle room of about 12

:12:32.:12:36.

billion. But look at the bills, rebels involved in business rates

:12:37.:12:39.

suggest the Chancellor will have to throw up ?2 billion at that problem.

:12:40.:12:45.

3.7 billion is the potential cost of this judgment about disability

:12:46.:12:48.

benefits. The Government will try to find different ways of satisfying it

:12:49.:12:54.

but who knows. It will not popular. I'm not sure they will throw money

:12:55.:12:58.

at the NHS, they want an interim settlement on social care which will

:12:59.:13:01.

alleviate pressure on the NHS but they feel... That's another couple

:13:02.:13:07.

of billion by the way. They feel in the Treasury that the NHS has not

:13:08.:13:11.

delivered on what Simon Stevens promised them. But here is the

:13:12.:13:19.

bigger problem for Philip Hammond, he has two This year and he thinks

:13:20.:13:23.

the second one in the autumn is more important because that is when

:13:24.:13:25.

people will feel the cost living squeeze.

:13:26.:13:27.

The Daily Politics is back at noon on BBC Two tomorrow.

:13:28.:13:31.

We'll be back here at the same time next week.

:13:32.:13:34.

Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:35.:13:40.

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