19/03/2017 Sunday Politics Wales

It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

She faces huge political fights over Brexit, Scottish independence,

After a tumultuous political week, we'll analyse the PM's prospects.

With chatter increasing about a possible early General Election,

Jeremy Corbyn's campaign chief joins me live.

NHS bosses warn health services in England are facing "mission

impossible" and waiting times for operations will rocket,

unless hospitals are given more cash this year.

Later in the programme. Providers joins me live.

A stark warning from the First Minister unless there's

clarity over who does what after Brexit.

And the Tory leader in Wales, after a tricky week for the party.

All that to come before 12:15pm, and I'll also be talking

to the former leader of the Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg

from his party's spring conference in York.

With me here in the studio, throughout the programme,

three of the country's top political commentators:

Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

They'll be tweeting their thoughts using #bbcsp.

So, the political challenges facing Theresa May are stacking up.

As well as negotiating Britain's exit from the EU,

the PM must now deal with SNP demands for a second referendum

on Scottish independence, backbenchers agitating against cuts

to school budgets, and a humiliated Chancellor forced to u-turn on a key

budget measure just one week after announcing it.

Here's Adam Fleming on aturbulent political week

Monday, 11:30am, TV crews gather in the residence of the First

Minister of Scotland, who's got a surprise.

She wants a vote on whether Scotland should leave the UK

By taking the steps I have set out today I am ensuring that Scotland's

future will be decided, not just by me, the

Scottish Government, or the

SNP, it will be decided by the people of Scotland.

Westminster, 6:25pm the same day, MPs reject

amendments to the legislation authorising the Prime Minister to

The Bill ceremonially heads to the Lords where peers abandoned

attempts to change it and it becomes law.

But Downing Street doesn't trigger Article 50 as many had expected.

Some say they were spooked by Nicola Sturgeon.

We get an e-mail from the Treasury can the

We get an e-mail from the Treasury cancelling

the planned rise in National Insurance for

the self-employed announced the budget.

It's just minutes before Prime Minister's Questions at noon.

The trend towards greater self-employment does create a

We will bring forward further proposals

but we will not bring forward increases to NICs later in this

It seems to me like a government in a bit of chaos here.

By making this change today we are listening to our colleagues

fulfil both the letter and the spirit of our manifesto tax

Thursday, 7am, Conservative campaign HQ and the

Electoral Commission fines the party ?70,000 for misreporting spending

But that's not what the Prime Minister

Because at 12:19pm she gives her verdict on a

We should be working together, not pulling apart.

We should be working together to get that

right deal for Scotland, that

So, as I say, that's my job as Prime Minister and

so for that reason I say to the SNP now is not the time.

Friday and time for the faithful to gather.

SNP activists at their spring conference

Conservatives in Cardiff to hear the Prime Minister

promote her plan for a more meritocratic Brexit Britain.

At 11:10am comes some news about a newspaper that's frankly

I'm thrilled and excited to be the new editor of The

Evening Standard and, you know, with so many

big issues in our world what

good analysis, great news journalism.

It's a really important time for good journalism that The

Evening Standard is going to provide.

There was no let-up yesterday as Gordon Brown launched proposals

Under my proposals we keep the Barnett

Formula, we keep the fiscal transfers, but we also bring the

and fisheries back to the Scottish Parliament.

And just think, all this and we're still counting down to the

What a week in politics. It has been a torrid week for the government,

Isabel Oakeshott, but does Theresa May shake it off, or is this a sign

of worse to come? We may all be feeling a bit breathless after the

events of last week and we are in for a a long war of attrition with

the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon's strategy will be to foster over lengthy

periods of time as much resentment and anger as she can in Scotland and

try to create the impression that independence is somehow inevitable.

Is Scotland the biggest challenge for Theresa May in the next year or

so? I think it probably is because if you look at how relatively easily

the Brexit bill went through on an issue where people could hardly feel

more passionate in the Commons, and actually despite all the potential

drama it has gone through quite smoothly. To go back to your

original question, she just carries on. Don't underestimate the basic

quiet and will towards Theresa May amongst the majority of Tory

backbenchers. Yes, there are difficult little issues over school

funding, sorry, it's not a little issue, it is a big one but she will

get over that and treat each thing as it comes and keep pressing on.

Has she not called Nicola Sturgeon's Bluff in that the First Minister

said I want a referendum, here is roughly when I wanted, the Prime

Minister says you're not having one. What happens next? She has done

quite well and impact the progress Theresa May made this week in

frustrating Nicola Sturgeon was evident when Nicola Sturgeon said,

OK, maybe we can talk about the timing after. Nicola Sturgeon has

already been the first one to blink. I would slightly disagree with

Isabel Oakeshott, I don't agree Scotland will be the biggest hurdle

for her. What this week showed as is Theresa May... It was a reality

bites week. Theresa May is juggling four mammoth crises at the same

time, Brexit obviously which I still think will be the biggest challenge

to get a good deal, Trump left field who popped up at GCHQ on Friday and

Scotland and the fiscal challenge, this enormous great problem, and it

reinforced the point this is not an easy time in politics. The budget is

over four years. That was one small problem, the immediate problem is

how to fill the social care crisis and the ageing demographic. This is

not normal times in British politics and Theresa May does not have a

normal workload on her plate, hence why I think we will see more

mistakes made as time goes on and as she has this almost impossible

workload to juggle. How tempted do you think the Prime Minister is to

call an early election? There is more chatter about it now. Is she

tempted and if there is will she succumb? I will answer that in a

second as Harold Wilson used to say. I want to agree, disagree with the

rest of the panel about how she has out manipulated Nicola Sturgeon this

week. I think Nicola Sturgeon expected Theresa May to say no to

her expected timetable. It would be amazing if she had said yes. She

expected her to say no but Sturgeon catalyst that will fuel support for

her cause. There is no sign of that. The latest poll this morning shows

66-44 against independence and only 13% think they would be better off

with an independent Scotland and a clear majority do not want a second

referendum. But the calculation of resistance from Westminster combined

with Brexit which hasn't started yet, I think this is her

calculation, she didn't expect Theresa May to say, sure, go ahead,

I'm sure she expected Theresa May to say no, you can't have it at your

desired timetable. On the wider point, I think Theresa May is in a

fascinating position, she is both strong because she faces weak

opposition and is ahead in the opinion polls. But faces the most

daunting agenda of any Prime Minister for 40 or 50 years, I

think. So it's a weird combination. I don't think she wants to call an

election. I don't think she has thought about how you would

manipulate it, what the trigger would be, and whether she's got the

energy and space to prepare for and then mount a campaign was beginning

the Brexit negotiation. Now, you could see the cause would be the

small majorities that will make her life hellish, which it will do.

Whether a landslide would help is another question, they can be

difficult too. But I think the problems outweigh the advantages of

going early. Do you think she would go for an early election? I don't

and I think you have to look at the rhetoric coming out of No 10 which

is so firm on this question, it is a delicious prospect for us as

commentators to think there might be an election around the corner but

they are so firm on this I can't see it happening. I agree, we are in

unanimous agreement on this one. It is superficially attractive because

she would love the big majority and she would get a lot more through

Parliament especially with Brexit. The nitty-gritty of it makes an

early General Election this year almost impossible. How do you write

a manifesto on high Brexit versus soft Brexit, it opens up a Pandora's

box of uncertainties. And there is enough with the European elections.

The EU will say are we negotiating with you or the person who may

replace you? How do you keep the Tory party united going to an

election? How do you call one, with a vote of no confidence in yourself

you may end up losing. Easy on paper but difficult in practice. We shall

see. So if Theresa May did go

for an early election this spring, The party's campaigns

and elections chief Andrew Gwynne Andrew Gwynne, the government, as we

have just been talking about, executed one of the most

embarrassing U-turns in recent history this week. It has been a

torrid time for the Theresa May government. Why are the Tories still

so chipper? The Labour Party has been on an

early election footing since before Christmas and we are preparing

ourselves for that eventuality in case that does come. That means that

we've got to get ourselves into a position whereby we can not only

challenge the government but we can also offer a valuable alternative

for the British people to choose from should that election arise. So,

would you welcome an early General Election? Well, of course, I don't

want this government to be in power so of course if there is an

opportunity to put a case to the British people as to why there is a

better way, and I believe the Labour way is the better way than of course

we would want to put that case to the country. So, would Labour vote

in the Commons for an early election? Well, of course as an

opposition, not wanting to be in opposition, wanting to be in

government should the government put forward a measure in accordance with

the Fixed-term Parliaments Act then that's something we would very

seriously have to consider. I know you would have to consider it but

would you vote for an early election or not? Well, of course we want to

be the government so if the current government puts forward measures to

bring forward a General Election we would want to put our case to the

British public and that's one of the jobs that I've been given, together

Labour Party organisation early into a position where we can fight a

General Election -- organisationally. For the avoidance

of doubt, if the Government work to issue a motion in the Commons for an

early election, the Labour Party would vote for an early election?

It would be very difficult not, Andrew. If the Government wants to

dissolve parliament, wants a General Election, we don't want the Tories

in government, we want to be in government and we want to have that

opportunity to put that case to the British people.

Are you ready for an early election? You say you have been on a war all

but since the Labour conference last autumn, but are you ready for one?

How big is the election fighting fund? We have substantial amounts of

money in our fighting fund, that is true, because not only has the

Labour Party managed to eliminate its own financial deficit that it

inherited from previous election campaigns, we have also managed to

build up a substantial fund in the off chance we have an election. We

have also expanded massively operations at Labour HQ, we are

taking on additional staff, and one of the jobs that myself and Ian

Lavery who I job share with are currently doing is to go around the

Parliamentary Labour Party to make sure that Labour colleagues have the

support and the resources that they need, should they have to face the

electorate in their constituencies. So you are on a war footing, ready

for the fight, you say you would vote for the fight, so have you got

your tax and spend policies ready to roll out? That is something the

shadow Treasury team will be discussing. One of the things is, if

there is an early General Election, the normal timetable for these

things gets fast-track because our policy decision-making body, its

annual conference, we have the national policy forum that creates

policies suggestions. You have been on a war footing since the last

Labour conference, that is what Mr Corbyn told us. So you must have a

fair idea of what policies you would fight an early election on. How much

extra per year would you spend on the NHS? Well, look, I'm not going

to set out the Labour manifesto for an election that hasn't been called.

I'm just asking you about the NHS. You must have a policy for that. We

have a policy for the NHS. So how much extra? I will not set out

Labour's tax-and-spend policies here on The Sunday Politics when there

hasn't even been election called. You said you had been on a war

footing and you are prepared to vote for one, so if you can't Tommy that,

can you tell me what the corporation rate tax on company profits be under

a Labour government -- tell me that. You will have to be patient. I have.

And wait for Mrs May to trigger an early election. If there is an

election on the 4th of May the rich would have to be issued on the 27th

of March, so that's not long to wait. If that date passes we aren't

having an election on the 4th of May and the normal timetable for policy

development will continue. All right. You lost Copeland, I think

you were in charge of a by-election for Labour, your national poll

ratings are still dire, even after week of terrible times for the

Tories. Sometimes you even lose local government by-elections in

safe seats, including in the place you are now, in Salford. How long

does Mr Corbyn have to turn this around? Well, look, the issue of the

Labour leadership was settled last year. The last thing the Labour

Party now needs is another period of introspection with the Labour Party

merely talks to the Labour Party. We are now on an election footing in

case Mrs May does trigger an early General Election. We need to be

talking to the British people are not to ourselves. So any speculation

about the Labour leadership might excite you in the media but actually

for us in the Labour Party it's about re-engaging and reconnecting

with the voters. Rather than being excited, I feel quite daunted at the

prospect of an early election. So I wouldn't get that right. Normally,

given the number of mistakes this government has made, and its

mid-term, you would expect any self-respecting opposition to be

about ten points ahead. On the latest polls this morning you are 17

behind. There is a 27-30 point gap from where you should normally be as

an opposition. Are you telling me that if that doesn't change, you

still fight the General Election with Mr Corbyn?

These are matters for the future. I believe the leadership issue was

settled last year. We have had two leadership contest in two years.

Would you seriously contemplate going into the next election, if it

is early I perfectly understand Jeremy Corbyn is your man, but if it

is not until 2020, and you are still 17 points behind in the polls, will

you go into the next election like that? There is a lot of future

looking and speculation there, I don't know what the future holds,

where the Labour Party will be in 12 months let alone by 2020 summit

cross those bridges when we come to it. My main challenge is to make

sure the Labour Party is in the best possible place organisationally to

fight an election, that's my challenge and I'm up for that to

make sure we are in the best possible place to make sure Labour

returns as many Labour MPs as possible. Thank you for joining us.

And we're joined now from the Liberal Democrats' spring

conference in York by the former Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg.

Good morning. In his conference speech today, Tim Farron lumps

Theresa May with Vladimir Putin, Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump. In

what way is Mrs May similar to Marine Le Pen? Of course he is not

saying Theresa May is identical to Marine Le Pen, I think what Tim

Wilby spelling out shortly in his speech is that we need to be aware

what's going on in the world, the International settlement that was

arrived at after the First World -- Second World War, that bound

supranational organisations is under attack from characters as diverse as

Vladimir Putin, Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump, and that by side in so

ostentatiously with Donald Trump and pursuing this very hard Brexit,

Theresa May appears to be giving succour to that much more

isolationist chauvinist view of the world than the multilateral approach

that Britain has subscribed to for a long time. The exact words he plans

to use are welcome to the New World order, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump,

Marine Le Pen, Theresa May, aggressive and teenage to, anti-EU,

nationalistic. In what way is Mrs May fitting into any of that? In

what way is she similar to Vladimir Putin? I'm not aware she has

interfered with other people's elections. The clue is in the quote

you just read out, which is the world order. The world order over

the last half century or more, by the way a lesson I'm afraid we have

to learn in Europe because of the terrible bloodshed of two world was

in the space of a few decades, was based on the idea might is not

right. Strong arm leaders cannot throw their weight around. What we

have now with Putin, the populism across parts of Europe and Donald

Trump who thinks the EU will unravel is a shift to a radically different

view of the world. Mrs May doesn't think any of that. She is not

antenatal, not anti-EU, she says she wants the EU to succeed. She's not

aggressive as far as I'm aware so I'm not sure why you would lump the

British Prime Minister in with these other characters. Let me explain, by

choosing this uncompromising approach to Brexit, clearly in doing

so she, in my view, maybe not yours or others, is pursuing a self

harming approach to the United Kingdom but also pulling up the

threads that bind the rest of the European Union together, in so

ostentatiously siding with Donald Trump, somehow declaring in my view

speciously that we can make up with the trade we will lose, she's not

challenging the shift to a more chauvinist approach to world affairs

that is happening in many places. You are at your party's Spring

conference, I think we can agree any Lib Dem come back will take a long

time. Would Tory dominance be more effectively challenged by a

realignment of the centre and the centre-left? Are you working towards

that? I missed half the question but I think you are talking about a

realignment. As a cook a way to get over Tory dominance, would you want

that to happen? Are you working towards that? My view is the

recovery of the Lib Dems will be quicker than you suggest. People

often forget that even the low point of our fortunes in the last election

we still got a million more votes than the SNP, it's only because we

have got this crazy electoral system... But the SNP fight in

Scotland, you fight in the whole country! But I'm saying the way

seats are allocated overlooks the fact that 2.5 million still voted

for us. But my own view is of course there are people feeling

increasingly homeless in the liberal wing of the Conservative Party

because they are now in a party which is in effect indistinguishable

from Ukip on some of the biggest issues of the day, and homeless folk

on the rational, reasonable wing of the Labour Party. I would invite

them to join the Liberal Democrats and I would invite everyone across

parties to talk about the idea is that bind us because the Westminster

village can invest a lot of energy building new castles in the sky,

inventing new names for parties when actually what you want is for people

on the progressive centre ground of British politics to talk about the

ideas that unite them, from the dilemmas of artificial intelligence

to climate change. Do you think in your own view, can Brexit still be

thwarted or is it now a matter of getting the best terms? I think we

are in an interlude, almost a calm between two storms, the storm of the

referendum itself and the collision between the Government's stated

ambitions for Brexit and the reality of having to negotiate something

unworkable with 27 other governments. The one thing I can

guarantee you is that what the Government has promised to the

British people cannot happen. Over a slower period of time we will work

out our new relationship with the European Union. Theresa May said she

will settle divorce arrangements, and pensions, so one, negotiate new

trade agreements, new climate change policies and so on, and have all of

that ratified within two years, that will not happen so I think there

will be a lot of turbulence in the next couple of years. Will you use

this turbulence to try to thwart Brexit, to find a way of rolling

back the decision? It's not about repeating the debates of the past or

thwarting the will of the people but it is comparing what people were

promised from the ?350 million for the NHS every week through to this

glittering array of new trade agreements we will sign across the

world, with the reality that will transpire in the next couple of

years and at that point, yes it is my belief people should be able to

take a second look at if that is what they really want. A couple of

quick questions, would you welcome an early general election? I always

welcome them, we couldn't do worse than we did last time. That is

certainly true. You have a column in the Evening Standard, have you

spoken to the new editor about whether he will keep your column or

spike it? No, I wait in nervous anticipation. Can you be a newspaper

editor in the morning and an MP in the afternoon? Do I think that's

feasible? Sorry, I missed a bit. There is no prohibition, no law

against MPs being editors. They have been in the past and no doubt will

again in the future. He is taking a lot on, he is an editor, also

wanting to be an MP, a jetsetting academic in the States, working in

the city, I suspect something will give. It seems to me even by his

self-confidence standards in his own abilities I suspect he is taking on

a little bit too much. Very diplomatic, Mr Clegg, I'm sure you

will get to keep the column. Thanks for joining us.

Now, for the last six months England's NHS bosses have been

warning the health service needs more money to help it meet

But in his first Budget, the Chancellor offered

no immediate relief, and today the head of

the organisation representing England's NHS trusts says hundreds

of thousands of patients will have to wait longer for both emergency

care and planned operations, unless the Government

Warnings over funding are not exactly new.

Back in 2014 the head of the NHS in England, Simon Stevens,

published his plan for the future of the health service.

In his five-year forward view, Stevens said the NHS in England

would face a funding shortfall of up to ?30 billion by 2020.

To bridge that gap he said the NHS would need more money

from the Government, at least ?8 billion extra,

and that the health service could account for the rest by making

The Government says it's given the health service more than what it

asked for, and that NHS in England will have received

That number is disputed by NHS managers and the chair

of Parliament's health committee, who say the figure is more

like ?4.5 billion, while other parts of the health and social care budget

have been cut, putting pressure on the front line.

Last year, two thirds of NHS trusts in England finished

the year in the red, and despite emergency bailouts

from the Government, the NHS is likely to record

Meanwhile national targets on waiting times for A

departments, diagnostic tests, and operations are being

This month's Budget provided ?2 billion for social care

but there was no new cash for the NHS, leading trusts to warn

that patient care is beginning to suffer, and what is being asked

And I'm joined now by the Chief Executive of NHS

Providers in England, Chris Hopson.

Welcome to the programme. Morning, Andrew. I will come onto the extra

money you need to do your job properly in a minute but first, part

of the deal was you had to make 22 billion in efficiency savings, not a

bank that money but spend it on patient care, the front line, and so

on. How is that going? So, last parliament we realised around 18

billion of productivity and efficiency savings, we are realising

more this year so we are on course to realise 3 billion this year, that

is a quarter of a billion more than last year but all of us in the NHS

knew the 22 billion would be a very stretching target and we are

somewhat inevitably falling short. So it is 22 billion by 2,020.

Roughly. That was the time. We are now into 2017. So how much of the 22

billion have you achieved? We realised around 3 billion last year

and we will realise 3 billion this year, Court of billion more, 3.25

billion this year, so we are on course for 18-19,000,000,000. By the

2021 period? You are not that far away. The problem is the degree to

which demand is going up. We have record demand over the winter period

and that actually meant we have seen more people than we have ever seen

before but performance is still under real pressure. Let me come

onto that. When you agreed on the 22 billion efficiency savings plus some

extra money from the government, I know there is a bit of an argument

about how much that is actually worth, had you not factored in this

extra demand that you saw coming over the next three or four years?

Let's be very clear committee referred to Simon Stevens's forward

view and we signed up to it but the 22 billion was a process run at the

centre of government by the Department of Health with its arms

length bodies, NHS England and others and is not something that was

consulted on with the NHS. But you signed up to it. We always said that

the day that that Spending Review was announced, the idea that the NHS

where customer demand goes up something like four or 5% every

year, the idea that in the middle years of Parliament we would be able

to provide the same level of service when we were only getting funding

increases of 1.3%, 0.4% and 0.7%, and I can show you the press release

we issued, we always said there was going to be a gap and that we would

not be able to deliver what was required. The full 22 billion in

other words? What we said to Simon Stevens at the Public Accounts

Committee a few months ago, the NHS didn't get what it was asked for.

Today the NHS, cope with the resources it has according to you.

How much more does it need? Are reported is about 2017-18 and we

estimate that what we are being asked to do, and again, Andrew, you

clearly set it out in the package, we are a long way off the four-hour

A target and a long way off the 92%. The waiting times and

operations. How much more do you need? And we are making up a ?900

million deficit. If you take all of those into account we estimate you

would need an extra ?3.5 billion next year in order to deliver all of

those targets and eliminate the deficit. That would be 3.5 billion

on top of what is already planned next year and that would be 3.5

billion repeated in the years to come too? Yes, Andrew it is

important we should make an important distinction about the NHS

versus other public services. When the last government, the last Labour

government put extra money into the NHS it clearly said that in return

for that it would establish some standards in the NHS Constitution,

the 95% A target we have talked about and the 92% elective surgery

we have talked about. The trust we represent are very clear, they would

want to realise those standards, but you can only do it if you pay for

it. The problem is at the moment is we are in the longest and deepest

financial squeeze in NHS history. As we have said, funding is only going

up by 1% per year but every year just to stand still cost and demand

go up by more than 4%. There is clearly a demand for more money. I

think people watching this programme will think probably the NHS is going

to have to get more money to meet the goals you have been given. I

think they would also like to be sure that your Mac running the NHS

as efficiently as it could be. We read this morning that trusts have

got ?100 million of empty properties that cost 10 million to maintain, 36

office blocks are not being used, you have surplus land equivalent to

1800 football pitches. Yes, there are a number of things that we know

in the NHS we need to do better but let me remind you, Andrew, in the

last Parliament we realised ?18 billion worth of cost improvement

gains. We are going to realise another 3 billion this year, 0.25

billion more than last year so these things are being targeted. But

having that surplus land, it is almost certainly in areas where

there is a demand for housing. Absolutely. So why not release it

for housing? You get the money, the people get their houses and its

contribution and a signal that you are running NHS assets as

efficiently as you can? Tell me if I'm going to too much detail for

you. One of the reasons as to why our trusts are reluctant to realise

those land sales is because there is an assumption that the money would

go back to the Treasury and wouldn't benefit NHS trusts. You could make a

deal, couldn't you? That's part of the conversation going on at the

moment. The issue is that we would want to ensure that if we do release

land, quite rightly the benefit, particularly in foundation trusts

which are, as you will remember, deliberately autonomous

organisations, that they should keep the benefit of those land sales.

Have you raised that with the government?

Yes we have. What did they say? They are in discussions of it. We heard

somebody who moved from one job and then to another job and given a big

salary and then almost ?200,000 as a payoff. There is a national mood for

the NHS to get more money. But before you give anybody any more

money you want to be sure that the money you have got already is being

properly spent, which for us, is the patient at the end of the day. And

yet there seem to be these enormous salaries and payoffs. I've worked in

a FTSE 100 on the board of Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs and I

have worked in large organisations. I can look you completely straight

in the eye and tell you that the jobs that our hospital, community,

mental health and ambulance chief Executives do are amongst the most

complicated leadership roles I have ever seen. It doesn't seem to me to

be unreasonable that in order to get the right quality of people we

should pay an appropriate salary. The reality is the salaries are paid

are not excessive when talking about managing budgets of over ?1 billion

a year and talking about managing tens of thousands of staff. There

was a doctor working as a locum that earned an extra ?375,000. One of the

problems in the NHS is a mismatch between the number of staff we need

and the number of staff coming through the pipeline. What is having

to happen is if you want to keep a service going you have to use Mackem

and agency staff. Even at that cost? You would not want to pay those

amounts. But you are. The chief Executives's choice in those areas

is giving the service open or employing a locum. I'm sure you

could find a locum prepared to work for less than that. What indication,

what hopes do you have of getting the extra ?3 billion? The government

has been very clear, for the moment it wants to stick to the existing

funding settlement it has agreed. So there was nothing in the budget. Can

I finish by making one important point. Please, finish. This is the

first time the NHS has said before the year has even started that we

can't deliver on those standards. We believe, as do most people who work

in the NHS, that the NHS is on a gradual slow decline. This is a very

important inflection point to Mark, this is the first time before the

financial year starts that we say we cannot meet the targets we are being

asked to deliver and are in the NHS Constitution. We have run out of

time. Chris Hopson, thank you for being with me.

It's just gone 11:35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics Wales.

Labour veteran Jack Straw on Brexit, devolution and his party's woes,

and Andrew RT Davies on how the Tories are putting this week

behind them and looking to the local elections.

But first more on the constitutional convention the First Minister says

he wants, to discuss the future shape of the UK.

When I spoke to Carwyn Jones, I asked how this was different

from a similar call he made five years ago.

We've got real challenges as far as the UK is concerned.

And those challenges can be met in order for the UK to remain

in the 21st century but we need to work out who does

what when we leave the EU and so far Whitehall hasn't

What we have said is, there are areas which are already

the responsibility of Wales, and Scotland and Northern Ireland,

there should be a joint decision-making process,

we have to work out what rules there will be in the internal

single market of the UK and who polices them.

Not difficult but the work needs to start now.

Isn't there a danger, though, you're going to be

We're already seeing the SNP calling for a second

The UK Government doesn't seem all that interested in your idea

of constitutional Convention, you're the mercy of others.

We were way ahead of the game, we recognised a long time ago

what the challenges would be for the UK.

It is up to Whitehall whether it listens enough

The ball in the UK Government's court.

If they don't listen, then people are going to make their own minds up

So these things have to be sorted out now rather than the platitudes

We need to see action now so we understand the UK

is a partnership of four nations, not one imposing its will

We have been discussing this for a number of years and I guess

the problem will be for people watching this programme now,

the constitution again, how is that going to improve my life?

With services, schools and hospitals, what would be

Certainty, we need to know who does what.

For example, if you don't have any rules at all about what can happen

in the UK if we leave the EU, we're going to have a trade war

in the UK between the different nations, no one wants that,

that would cost jobs, it would cost a lot of money,

And that needs to be resolved as soon as possible.

Do you think that could happen, there could be a trade

war between Scotland, England and Wales after Brexit?

The EU state aids rules govern what we can and can't do.

If there are no rules, it becomes a free for all,

that is a bad thing for any single market.

What will be your suggestion, how should this federalism,

this new relationship and your convention work?

Let's look at one example, Canada, where they have pooled sovereignty,

sovereignty is shared between the provinces

This idea that everything lies in Westminster and therefore

Westminster has control over every single policy, every

single thing ultimately, Parliamentary sovereignty,

I think it should be consigned to the history books.

We need to have a situation where we have a structure in place,

there is a recognition that not just of Scotland, Wales

and Northern Ireland, but England and the cities as well,

a modern constitution that will keep the UK together in the future.

But how do you get over the fact that what you have

in the United Kingdom is one massive entity, England, and the rest of

It's difficult, let's have a look at ways we can do that.

If we have for example a situation where, two examples,

The UK doesn't exist in agriculture and fisheries,

either it's European or it's the four nations who control

We need to have a mechanism in place where we can agree a common

framework and a common way forward where that's appropriate.

Animal health, for example, does it make sense to have three

different animal health regimes on one island?

We agree a common way forward but the difference is it should

That's what we need to look at in the future.

There are other ways in which we can look at this,

for example, the upper house, the Lords as it is now,

why not make that something like the American Senate

where there is equal representation from these four nations,

that recognises the fact that there are four nations

in this partnership, as of course the House of Commons

recognises the population difference between England and the other three.

So what do Carwyn Jones' political opponents make of all this?

James Williams took a trip to the future to find out.

Good evening and welcome to Wales Today.

Tonight's headlines on March 19th 2027.

With all eyes on elections in the newly independent Scotland

and the united Ireland, we ask what it will mean for Wales.

Meanwhile, a hat-trick for the Welsh football team

as they clinch the World Cup for third successive time.

OK, thanks very much, Jamie, thanks for that,

But in all seriousness, in the wake of the Brexit vote,

the idea of an independent Scotland and a united Ireland

So when it comes to Labour's plan for a constitutional

convention about the future of the United Kingdom,

I'll tell you the constitution convention we should be having,

And that's the kind of leadership that we should be seen

from the First Minister of Wales, is actually leading

a national conversation at these uncertain times.

And yet where is the vision for what this means for Wales?

That's the convention that we should be having, a cross-party,

across the whole of Wales, involving all sections of society,

Rather than the Labour Party talking to itself, why doesn't it talk

And in that conversation, Plaid Cymru wants to talk about

the prospect for an independent Wales.

They called for a renewed discussion on this just days

Whilst others were of course celebrating their independence.

The dawn is breaking on an independent United Kingdom.

But will it come at a price for the four nations?

I don't think that the UK will break up as a result of Brexit.

I think it will give more powers to the devolved institutions,

the parliament in Scotland and the assembly in Wales,

and that is going to help keep the kingdom together

because within a single entity, the devolved assemblies

So I think actually, it takes quite a lot

of power out of the demand for further separation.

Our party are clear, there must be a future

for the United Kingdom but there are issues that

Obviously the whole debate about devolution, the future

of the House of Lords, about electoral reform,

about devolving even more to local authorities,

there's a much bigger picture than what we have been presented

with at the moment and that requires a UK response.

So I do welcome it and I hope other political parties do as well.

This weekend has been a tale of two conferences.

And two competing visions for the future of the UK.

In Cardiff, the Prime Minister set out her desire to create

a more united union, just days after she rejected

Nicola Sturgeon's call for a second Scottish independent referendum.

It's safe to say Nicola Sturgeon got a better reception

than the Prime Minister amongst the SNP faithful.

With all this talk about the future of Northern Ireland and Scotland,

The majority of the Welsh electorate voted for Brexit which means that

Wales has far less leverage for example in the discussions

with the government in Edinburgh, even Belfast.

So frankly Wales is pretty marginalised, and that's of course

why for the Welsh Labour government the idea of a convention

is so attractive because I think they view it as a way of getting

themselves into the shop window if you like, making

As we prepare to leave one union, the future of the other union looks

Little is known about how either will turn out.

Now few people can say they've been in a Westminster

cabinet for 13 years, but Jack Straw is one of them.

The former Foreign Secretary, who also ran the Home Office

in his time, was visiting the University of

When I met him there I asked how trade talks would work after Brexit.

Well, it's not easy but I'm actually pretty optimistic about the future.

And that against a background in which I thought it was not

in our interests to leave the European Union.

We are 60 million people, we've got the fifth largest defence

forces in the world, we've got the fifth biggest economy.

We are the top four in exercise of what's called soft power.

It requires skill by British ministers and British

parliamentarians about how we negotiate.

And it's already clear that quite a number of countries,

Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Turkey, quite big countries,

want changes in trade arrangements with us so they're closer

We're going to reach a deal somehow or other with other member states

It's just possible we don't but I don't regard the WTO,

the foot, as a total disaster, let's see.

Going back 20 years, would have been the referendum

on devolution creating a Welsh assembly.

I remember it well, I remember trying to generate interest in a bus

station in Wrexham during the course of that campaign.

Well, I can't say it was my finest moment canvassing.

That's the thing, it was a very narrow,

considering the overwhelming majority...

Considering the thumping majority that Labour had,

just six months previously, to have such a narrow majority

there, how much of a disappointment and a surprise was that?

Well, I mean, look, there were plenty of people

who were firmly opposed to devolution back in the '70s.

I mean, Neil Kinnock famously who argued very,

very strongly and powerfully against the Labour Party's

Which is why the referendum in Wales in early '79

Anyway, it happened, but I think that the results

of Welsh devolution has been pretty benign.

I think it's good that Wales is running so many of its own

services from Cardiff, from its own national capital.

It's good that you're getting different parts

of the United Kingdom trying to achieve similar aims

but differently, say within the health service

within the education service, because they only benefit

What was the Labour view in Westminster when you saw you had

the New Labour project, academy schools, foundation

hospitals, or working with the private sector in England,

and then Wales's policy of clear water, we are not

following the New Labour model, it was almost a dirty word

If you give people power, you can't at the same time say,

and what's more, you've got to use the power the way

So my view is, that was a natural consequence of devolution,

that different parts of the UK, even in the same party,

And I personally think that academy schools and the use of the private

sector for the NHS has a role to play.

I'm not certain about that and I think it's terrific that

meanwhile, Labour colleagues in Wales are experimenting

in a different way by saying we're going to keep the private sector out

altogether, we're going to keep local authorities running schools.

You should not be dogmatic about this.

You should be dogmatic about the ends, free health service

at the point of use, good quality, free schooling,

but the means I think you should be pragmatic.

Which brings us on to Labour at the UK level.

How long do you think it will be before you're back

This is not me trying to pour terrible water on Labour's chances,

it's just a matter of fact and I should not be shot for saying

so, that Labour is going to be out of power for a long time

I occasionally go to the bookies and put money on events,

I'm not putting any money on Labour winning the next election.

I know nobody who would with the current leadership.

Well, look, there has to be a change of leader if we ever want to win.

I think that's even palpably obvious to Jeremy Corbyn.

The question is whether we have to wait until the next

But is a change of leader or a change of the politics of Labour?

It's both, just to replace Jeremy Corbyn with someone

who is another Jeremy Corbyn ain't going to work.

I mean people are not daft, they look at the totality

of what a leadership is offering and frankly, all the evidence

is that they turn away from what Mr Corbyn is offering

And it's a curious mixture of dogmatism and pure opportunism.

Take this question of the national insurance contributions

Understandably it caused a row on the Tory backbenchers.

But why have Labour joined in to support the Tory

I thought that we were a party in favour of ensuring that those

who could afford to paid a decent amount of taxation.

I also thought we were a party of, as the Institute

for Fiscal Studies has pointed out, if you are on similar incomes

and similar benefits, you should pay similar

And this proposal was to equalise the level of taxation the people

who are self employed with those who are employed.

It was, Labour would have done this had we been in government.

So quite why it's being decided to oppose it, I know why,

they thought it would embarrass the Conservatives.

It would have been far more sensible for us to have stuck

to our principles and said to Mrs May, we will support

you in the lobbies, doing something that was right which also had

the added advantage of splitting the Tory party.

It's been a difficult week for the Tories, but the message

from their conference in Cardiff this weekend was that the party

is moving forwards and looking to the local elections.

But when I met Andrew RT Davies, I had to begin by asking

I don't think politicians can win, can they?

At the end of the day they put something forward

and ultimately then they listen to the representations of the day

and they say, do you know what, maybe it's not such a good idea

and then they come to Parliament, they take all the questions

as Philip Hammond did take when he made his statement, and they

The decision wasn't going to come in until April next year anyway,

so no one has had to pay these monies over to the Treasury.

Whereas you take the situation here in Wales where you've got

businesses the length and breadth of Wales which are facing a huge

increase in their business rates and the Welsh government have done

very, very little to do, and I've been talking to the FSB

this morning over the problems many of their members are facing.

And so actually you can't have it that politicians will never

Here you have a classic case of a politician listening and acting

on the representations he is receiving.

The Welsh government would say they've spent over ?20 million

helping small businesses, small business relief in Wales.

But when you look at not just the economic history,

but you look at what is happening constitutionally in the UK now,

Nicola Sturgeon threatening that second independence referendum,

is that a concern at all in your mind that the price

of Brexit may well be the end of the United Kingdom?

Nicola Sturgeon didn't suddenly decide independence is a good

Nicola Sturgeon is a nationalist at the end of the day.

I respect her for that, that's her view, that's her party's

goal, to break up the union in the United Kingdom.

But actually if you look at what Nicola Sturgeon is looking

to do, she's looking to follow her nemesis on the other

side of the Atlantic, Donald Trump, and build a wall to break Scotland

But sadly, it will be the Scottish people who will end up paying

for that wall by poorer public services, closure of hospitals,

closure of schools, and less take-home pay in people's pay

packets because we know that Scotland benefits

Wales benefits from being part of the union, Northern Ireland

benefits from being part of the union, and the union

benefits from having Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland,

So surely that's a good recipe to hold together.

But aren't all those points you've just made equally

applicable to staying as part of the European Union?

Without fighting a referendum that's already been fought,

the points you have just made about Scotland being part

of the United Kingdom are equally applicable for the European Union.

No, you obviously didn't take any points on at all in the referendum.

We send, for every ?2 we send over to Brussels,

Scotland actually benefits from being in the union

It has four times the amount of trade with the United Kingdom

And ultimately, Europe, as I last looked, wasn't

The United Kingdom is a sovereign state.

We have control within these islands because we have parliaments

and assemblies that have democratically elected

Nicola Sturgeon, if you slam the door too loud in Whitehall,

What Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP should be doing is focusing

on improving education standards, health, and the economy

in Scotland which has all gone backwards under the SNP.

And what's dangerous here is that Plaid Cymru are trying to make

the same case here in Wales to break Wales from the union

Let's not forget, every vote in these local government elections

for Plaid Cymru will be a vote for nationalism

It will not be a vote for local services.

Looking at what will happen after Brexit, you will have seen

that Carwyn Jones has been saying there needs to be this

Constitutional Convention, there needs to be clearly set out

rules about how the United Kingdom works after Brexit.

Otherwise, he said, it could lead to trade wars.

I'm baffled by his pronunciation of trade wars.

I mean, the union of the United Kingdom has been

As I last looked at the Constitution, trade and industry

certainly wasn't devolved and international negotiations

But this is internal, a trade war between Wales and England.

He does have a point because the point I put forward

and at the time I was rubbished over, but it seems that people

seem to accept it now, is that we do need UK frameworks.

We need frameworks in agriculture, we need frameworks for HE, we need

So that all parts of the union can benefit from that money

And Wales mustn't lose out any money when it comes

And we will be working with colleagues in Westminster.

The biggest regret I have over Carwyn Jones is that he has not

reached out the hand of friendship and had a discussion with myself

and with other Brexiteers about how we can get a solid platform

in the negotiating round for Wales having a joint approach.

But Carwyn Jones didn't choose to do that.

He keeps moaning about the UK Government's response to him.

The UK Government is fully engaged with the devolved

governments and administrations and the Secretary of State

and the Prime Minister have had numerous meetings.

Regrettably Carwyn Jones is not practising what he

We mentioned earlier the local elections.

How do you think those are going to go?

A fairly disappointing set of results in 2012,

I don't think it's right to set targets in the media

as such, but what I can say is that we have a record number

of candidates looking to stand for us at these elections,

we will be standing in all 22 local authorities and we will be putting

Because ultimately if people want to see what Conservatives can

do in local government, they only need to look

at the Monmouthshire where we have run a very successful

administration, delivering quality public services

at an affordable price, getting the job done.

What communities can't afford is to have another five years

And the Conservatives will be fighting a positive campaign,

looking forward, looking up and looking at the horizon,

OK, those are the sound bites but what are the details?

What kind of offer will you be making?

The offer will be that we will deliver and maintain public services

that people value and cherish, like if that pothole outside your

house isn't being filled, we will get the roads fixed,

we will get the lights back on, we will reopen community

centres and above all, we will get playing fields

and parks people cherish back into the community.

Because we don't believe in dictating down to communities,

we believe in working with those communities.

Reopening playing fields, is that a manifesto...

I'm trying to get a sense from you what you will be offering

to people across Wales, you say you'll be reopening playing

fields, that will be a pledge for every council in Wales?

We'll be working with community to allow that to happen.

Because local government isn't a one size fits all,

there's 22 local authorities, what is right in one local authority

doesn't necessarily fit in another local authority.

The way you protect services in one area might be

totally different, say, from Cardiff, for example, a large

But what the Conservatives believe in, rather than saying,

we know best, and sitting in County Hall dictating

to communities, we want to work with communities so that we can

unleash that potential within those communities to keep the local

leisure centre open, to keep the library going,

to keep sports fields going, rather than just say,

you know what, it's easier for us to shut it.

That's been the approach to date and that's why people have

seen services disappear, services that communities

Andrew RT Davies there in buoyant mood.

That's it from me for another week, I hope we can look forward

to your company again next Sunday when we'll be hearing

from Welsh Labour at their conference in Llandudno.

Don't forget Twitter runs all the time.

you both. Say goodbye. Goodbye. Back to you.

So, can George Osborne stay on as a member of Parliament

Will Conservative backbenchers force a Government re-think

And is Theresa May about to cap gas and electricity prices?

Whose idea was that first of all? They are all questions for the Week

Ahead to. Let's start with the story that is

too much fun to miss, on Friday it was announced the former Chancellor

would be the new editor of London's Evening Standard newspaper, a

position he will take up in mid-May on a salary of ?200,000 for four

days a week. But Mr Osborne has said he will not

be stepping down as MP for Tatton in Cheshire,

a job he's held since 2001, Alongside these duties,

he's also chairman of While being committed to one day

a week at Black Rock, an American asset management firm -

a part-time role that earns him Then he's polishing his academic

credentials, as a fellow at the McCain Institute,

an American thinktank, And finally as a member

of the Washington Speaker's Bureau, he also earns his keep

as an after-dinner speaker, banking around ?750,000

since last summer. So there you go. Nice little earners

if you can get them. The problem, though, is he has put second jobs on

the agenda and lots of his fellow MPs are not happy because they have

got second jobs but not making that kind of money. No, and a lot of MPs

on both sides actually are unhappy about it exactly for those reasons.

I find it a very interesting appointment. We have got these

people on the centre and centre right of politics who have been used

to power since 1997, they have been on the airwaves today, Tony Blair,

Nick Clegg, George Osborne, and they are all seeking other platforms now

because power has moved elsewhere. So Tony Blair is setting up this new

foundation, Nick Clegg refused to condemn George Osborne, Tony Blair

praised the appointment. They are all searching for new platforms.

They might have overestimated the degree to which this will be a huge

influential platform. The standard was very pro-Tory at the 2015

election but London voted Labour, it was pro-Zac Goldsmith but they

elected Sadiq Khan. It might be overestimating the degree to which

this is a hugely influential paper. But I can see why it attracts him as

a platform when all these platforms have disappeared, eg power and

government. All of these people who used to be in power are quietly

getting together again, Mr Blair on television this morning, George

Osborne not only filling his bank account but now in charge of

London's most important newspaper, Nick Clegg out today not saying

Brexit was a done deal, waiting to see what happens, even John Major

was wheeled out again today in the Mail on Sunday. They are all playing

for position. I half expect David Cameron to turn up as features

editor on The Evening Standard. Brexit and breakfast! With Mr Clegg,

did he not? I do not think this is sustainable for George Osborne, I

worked at The Evening Standard and I was there for three years, I know

what the hours are like for a humble journalist, never mind the editor.

If he thinks he can get at 4am everyday to be in the offices at 5am

to oversee the splash, manage everything in the way and edited

should he is in cloud cuckoo land. What this says to people is there is

a kind of feel of soft corruption about public life here, where you

see what you can get away with. He thinks he can brazen this out and

maybe he can but what kind of message does that send to people

about how seriously people take the role of being an MP? He must have

known. He applied for the job. The Russian owner didn't approach him,

he approached Lebedev, the proprietor, for it. He must have

calculated there would be some kickback. I wonder if he realised

there would be quite the kickback there has been. I think that's

probably right. This hasn't finished yet, by the way, this will go on and

on. How on earth does George Osborne cover the budget in the autumn? Big

budget, lots of physical changes and tax rises to deal with the messages

out of this week. You can see already, Theresa May budget crashes.

It could be worse. She's useless! Or, worse than that, me, brilliant

budget, terrible newspaper, I've never buying it again. He has

hoisted his own petard. He has not bought it properly through. It's a

something interesting about his own future calculations, if he wants to

stay on as an MP in 2020 and be Prime Minister as he has or was

wanted to be he has got to find a new seat. How do you go into an

association and say I should be an MP, I can do it for at least four

hours Purdy after editing The Evening Standard, making a big

speech and telling Black Rock how to make a big profit. The feature pages

have to be approved for the next day and feature pages are aware the

editor gets to make their mark. The news is the news. The feature is

what concerns you, what he is in your bonnet. That defines the

newspaper, doesn't it? It is not over yet. Too much 101 on

newspapers. And Haatheq at. School funding, the consultation

period ends, it has been a tricky one for the government, some areas

losing. I guess we are seeing this through the prism of the National

Insurance contributions now, it is a small majority, if Tory MPs are

unhappy she may not get her way. Talking to backbench MPs who are

unhappy the feeling is it is not going to go ahead in the proposed

form that the consultation has been on. No 10 will definitely have to

move on this. It is unclear whether they will scrap it completely, or

will they bring in something possibly like a base level, floor

level pupil funding below which you can't go? You would then still need

to find some extra money. So there are no easy solutions on this but

what is clear it is not going to go ahead in its current form. Parents

have been getting letters across the country in England about what this

will mean for teachers and so on in certain schools. It's not just a

matter of the education Department, the schools, or the teachers and

Tory backbenchers. Parents are being mobilised on this. The point of the

new funding formula is to allocate more money to the more

disadvantaged. That means schools in the more prosperous suburbs are

going to lose money. Budget cuts on schools which are already

struggling. It comes down again to be huge problem, the ever smaller

fiscal pool, ever greater demands, NHS, social care, education as well,

adding to Theresa May and Phillip Hammond's enormous problems. Here is

an interesting issue, Steve. There was a labour Leader of the

Opposition that once suggested perhaps given these huge energy

companies which seemed to be good at passing on energy rises but not so

good at cutting energy prices when it falls, that perhaps we should put

a cap on them until at least we study how the market goes. This was

obviously ludicrous Marxism and quite rightly knocked down by the

Conservatives, except that Mrs May is now talking about putting a cap

on energy prices. Yes, I think if it wasn't for Brexit we would focus

much more on Theresa May's Ed Miliband streak. Whether this

translates into policies, let us see. That bit we don't know. That

bit we don't know but in terms of argument her speech to the

Conservative conference on Friday was about the third or fourth time

where she said as part of the speech, let's focus on the good that

government can do, including in intervening in markets, exactly in

the way that he used to argue. As you say, we await the policy

consequences of that. She seems more cautious in terms of policy in

fermentation. But in terms of the industrial strategy, in terms of

implying intervention in certain markets, there is a kind of

Milibandesque streak. And there comes a time when she has to walk

the walk as well as talk the talk. They talk a lot about the just about

managing, just about managing face rising food bills because of the

lower pound and face rising fuel bills because of the rise in oil and

in other commodities. One of the two things you could do to help the just

about managing is to cut their food bills and the second would be to cut

their fuel bills. At some stage she has to do something for them. We

don't know what is going to happen to food bills under Brexit, that

could become a really serious issue. They could abolish tariffs. There

has been a lot of talking the talk and big announcements put out and

not following through so I agree with you on that but lots of Tory

MPs will have a big problem on this and the principle of

continually talking about interfering in markets, whether it's

on executive pay, whether it is on energy, at a time when Britain needs

to send out this message to the world in their view, in the view of

Brexit supporting MPs, that we are open for business and the government

is not about poking around and doing this kind of thing. Of course, you

could argue there is not a problem in the market for energy, it is a

malfunctioning market that doesn't operate like a free market should,

so that provides even Adam Smith, the inventor of market economics

would have said on that basis you should intervene. I was in Cardiff

to listen to Theresa May's latest explanation for doing this. By the

way, we've been waiting nine months, this was one of her big ideas. You

are right, let's see a bit of the meat, please. My newspaper has been

calling for some pretty hefty government action on this for quite

some time. For the just about managings? Yes and specifically to

sort out an energy market dominated by the big six, which is manifestly

ripping people off left, right and centre. Theresa May's argument in

Cardiff on Friday morning which, by the way, went down like a proverbial

windbreak at the proverbial funeral because Tories... You know what I

mean Andrew, the big hand coming into from the state telling

businesses what to do. They went very quiet indeed. They were having

saving the union and Nato but there was no clapping for that. The point

being, this is what she needs to do to prove her assault, to prove those

first words on the steps of Downing Street. We await to see the actions

taken. On that unusual agreement we will

leave it there. The Daily Politics will be back on BBC Two tomorrow at

noon and everyday during the week. And I'll be here on BBC One

next Sunday at 11am. Remember, if it's Sunday,

it's the Sunday Politics. for families that have had

people pass away. There is a life out there

afterwards.