12/02/2017 Sunday Politics


12/02/2017

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Commons Speaker John Bercow is accused of compromising his

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impartiality by revealing he voted Remain in last year's EU referendum.

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The EU Withdrawal Bill clears its first Parliamentary hurdle.

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But will the House of Lords be quite so accommodating?

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Labour's Leader in the Lords joins us live.

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And we report from Stoke-on-Trent ahead of a crucial by-election

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later this month, where Ukip is looking to give

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In London this week, as City Hall unveils initiatives

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to tackle air pollution, a clear example is being

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And with me a political panel who frequently like to compromise

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Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer and Janan Ganesh.

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I'll be trying to keep them in order during the course of the programme.

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So, Commons Speaker John Bercow has insisted his ability

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to act impartially is not damaged by reports that he voted to Remain

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The Sunday Telegraph reveals that Speaker Bercow revealed his views

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in front of an audience of students at Reading University

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This may not be popular with some people in this audience -

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I thought it was better to stay in the European Union than not,

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partly for economic reason, being part of a big trade bloc,

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and partly because I think we're in a world of power blocs,

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and I think for all the weaknesses and deficiencies

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of the European Union, it is better to be part of that big

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Speaker Bercow speaking at Reading University earlier this month. Does

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he not care is this I get that impression, he knows perfectly well,

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it states he has to be particularly -- Parliamentary neural. Whether

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there are going to be enough votes to force him out, the question, the

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last speaker wept out with the 20 vote against him. You yes to have

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the command of the support across the House. There is a Deputy

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Speaker, waiting, who would be superb. I think even the people who

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pretend to support Macis have had enough -- Speaker Bercow have had

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enough of his ways. The reason I ask whether he care, he didn't just tell

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the students that he voted to Remain, he then gave them a running

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commentary on all the issues that will be part of the Brexit

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negotiations, workers' rights, immigration, trade policy, everyone

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maternity leave got a hat tip from him. He would be a very well

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prepared Brexit minister if attendance needs a colleague --

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David Davis needs a colleague. I don't think this story makes his

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position untenable, what does is the wired pattern of behaviour of

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excessive candour on his political views, going back years, this is a

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guy who when the Queen visited Parliament described her as theical

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lied scope Queen. He had a running argument with David Cameron. We know

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his views on Brexit, we know his views on Donald Trump. . He has

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given interviews, none of the views are illegitimate but the candour

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which they are expressed with is scrupulous. Given Lyndsay Hoyle is a

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class accuse. He is the Deputy Speaker. And a fairly ready

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replacement, whether there is more of a movement to say, maybe not

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force Bercow out but acknowledge he has had a few years in the job and

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the question of successor ship comes into play. Has he concluded he is

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untouchable? What I can definitely say, is that he is determined to

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fight this one out, and not go of his own volition, so if he goes he

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will have to be forced out. He wants to stay. Which will be tough. It

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will be tough. Likely as things stand. I would say this, I speak to

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someone who likes the way he has brought the House of Commons to

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life, held ministers to account, forced them into explain thing,

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whenever there is a topical issue you know it will be in the House of

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Commons. He has changed that. He has. Time has been courageous, Ied a

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mire the way he has been a speaker. I would say this, during the

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referendum campaign, he asked me Nick Clegg, and Peter Hitchens to

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debate Brexit if his constituency. It was a packed out meeting. He

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chaired it. I said don't you want to join in? He didn't. He showed no

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desire to join in, he was impartial. He goes out to universities and kind

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of demyth GCSEs Parliament by speaking to them in a way, he

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doesn't gets credit for it and stays on after and drinks with them.

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Sometimes he, you know, it is clearly a mistake to have gone into

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his views retrospectively on that referendum campaign, I don't think

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that, did he try and stop Article 50 from being triggered in the House of

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Commons? That would be a scandal. Even that would be beyond him.

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Briefly, yes or no, could you imagine Betty Boothroyd behaving

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like that? Not at all. None of the recent speakers I could imagine

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doing that. It is good he is different.

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The bill that will allow the government to trigger Article 50

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and begin Brexit negotiations was voted through

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Many MPs were in a difficult position - unsure whether to vote

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with their conscience, their constituency,

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Europe, once such a divisive issue for the Conservatives,

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is now causing major divisions inside the Labour Party.

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So, let's have a look what happened in a bit more detail:

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Thanks to academic research carried out since the referendum,

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we now have estimates of how each individual constituency voted.

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It's thought that 410 constituencies voted Leave.

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On Wednesday night, the EU Notification of Withdrawal Bill

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was voted through by the House of Commons.

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The bill left the Labour Party divided.

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Jeremy Corbyn told his MPs to respect the result

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of the referendum and vote for the government's bill -

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But 52 Labour MPs defied Mr Corbyn's thee-line whip

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That's about a fifth of the Parliamentary Labour Party.

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Of those 52 Labour MPs who voted against the bill,

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the majority, 45 of them, represent seats that voted Remain.

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However, seven Labour MPs voted against the Article 50 Bill,

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even though their constituents voted Leave in the referendum.

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The Conservative Party were much more united.

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The vast majority of Tory MPs, 320 of them, voted for the bill.

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Just one Conservative MP, Ken Clarke, voted against it.

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His constituency, Rushcliffe in Nottinghamshire, voted Remain.

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The bill will now go to the House of Lords -

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peers will start debating it on Monday the 20th of February.

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Joining me now is Matthew Goodwin, politics professor at

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He's got a book out next month called

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Brexit: Why Britain Voted To Leave The European Union.

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Welcome to the programme. Has Brexit, how you voted in the

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referendum and your continuing attitudes toward it, is that now

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becoming the new dividing line in British politics? I think it

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certainly is contributing to a new dividing line, in western politics

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more generally, we know over the last ten years, that the old left

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and right division has been making way for a new division, between

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essentially social liberals and Conservative, and Brexit was a, an

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incident a moment that really reflected that new dividing line, so

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it wasn't just the case that Brexit has cut across Labour's base, it is

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that dividing line, that deeper division is cutting across social

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democracies more generally. Is there a possibility, no higher than that,

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that it will reShane our party politics? I think it is too early to

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know whether this is a fundamental long-term realignment. If we look at

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what is happening in local by-election, what is happening at

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by-elections, pictures a bit mixed but if you look at how some of the

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Labour vote is responding, I think that potentially reflects the

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possibility of a terminal decline for the Labour Party, it is going to

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be incredibly difficult for Labour to win these voters back, these are

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traditional working class, socially Conservative voters who are leaving

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the party, don't forget, since the 1997 general election. It is not

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just because of the referendum. If that was the case, Labour would

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become more a party of the Metropolitan areas, and less of a

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party outside of these area, is that what you are saying? What we are S

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seeing across the west can social democracy that retrenchment into the

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cosmopolitan, Metropolitan city area, university towns, you can

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seeing in many European states populist right parties filling the

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traditional socialist area, why are they doing that? Because they are

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offering two message, economic and cultural protectionism. Social

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Democrats are clinging to that economic protectionism but not

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saying much about migration and multiculturalism and that sort of

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stuff. Are there deeper forces at work than Jeremy Corbyn? He often

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gets the blame for what is happening to the Labour Party now, but if you

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look the way the Greek socialist party has been wiped out. The German

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Social Democrats are in trouble. The Italian socialist party has lost a

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referendum. The French socialist are coming close to being wiped out on

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April 23rd, Labour's problems, are part of a much wider problem of

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social democracy S Jeremy Corbyn is a surface problem, what I mean by

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that is you could replace him tosh with another leader, they would

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still have this fundamental tension within the electorate. They are

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trying to appeal to two differenter reconcilable groups of voters who

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think differently about the key issues of the day. It is very

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difficult for any centre left party now to assemble the kinds of

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coalitionses we saw in the '90s with Clinton and Blair and Schroeder.

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Those days are gone. Does that explain why it is now Labour, rather

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than the Conservatives, historically the party divided over the European

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Union, does all of that help to explain why its Labour that now

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seems, disunited over the EU? I think so, I think also that the

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issue of Brexit, and the EU, is so immatly wrapped up with that issue

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of immigration, if you look at who has been abandoned Labour since 2015

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or the late 90s, the one thing those voters share is a rejection of the

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so-called liberal consensus on EU membership and mass immigration. It

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is difficult for any Labour lead eer co-bin or Clive Lewis on Dan Jarvis,

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to bring those voters back unless they are going to move on that

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cultural terrain. If they are not, they may not go to Ukip, they might

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go to somewhere more difficult for Labour which is political apathy.

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Thank you for that. Attention now shifts to the House

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of Lords where peers will begin scrutinising the EU Withdrawal Bill

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in just over a week. Brexit Secretary David Davis urged

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the Lords "to do its patriotic duty" and resist the urge to tinker

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with the legislation. Former minister Oliver Letwin

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went one further - mooting the possibility

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of the abolition of the Lords if it sought to frustrate

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the bill in any way. Here he is posing the question

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in the Commons on Thursday. Would he find time, in government

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time for a debate, should the other place seek to delay beyond the end

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of March the passage of our accession to Article 50, for this

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House to discuss the possibility of either the abolition or full-scale

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reform of the other place? And Oliver Letwin joins

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me now from Dorset. Welcome back to the programme Mr Let

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win. Before we come on to the Lord's, can I get your thoughts on a

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matter that has been making the news this morning and John Bercow's

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remarks about being a remain voter an giving something of a running

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commentary on various Brexit issues, has he sqloefr stepped the mark as

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speaker? -- overstepped the mark. I think this is slightly a fuss about

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nothing. Every person who thinks about politics will have had some

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opinion about great matters like Brexit, and I really don't see any

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particular reason why his opinion shouldn't be known after the fact.

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I, I was there throughout the five days of the Brexit debate, and I

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have to say, I thought he was pretty scrupulously fair in the way he

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handled the House, so, I, I don't really share the view that there is

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some terrible thing that has been revealed this weekend. Let me come

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on to what we are here to talk about, which is the Lords. Why have

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you raised the threat of the abolition of the Lord for doing its

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job of scrutinising what is coming out the Commons? Well, you know,

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Andrew, this question of the job of the House of Lords and scrutiny, has

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to be looked at carefully. There are all sorts of bills that come out the

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House of Commons which are detailed things that relate to, finance, and

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expenditure, and the criminal law, and all that sort of thing, and all

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of that, I admire the work that the House of Lords does, as you say

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scrutinising and we shouldn't use that word loosely, it means looking

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carefully at the detail, line by line of complicated legislation,

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hundreds of Paps in some cases, and spotting, using the considerable

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expertise many, not all be many of the peers have, in any given field,

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to identify things where the Commons has got it wrong in the sense that

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the legislation wouldn't achieve what the Government of the day is

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seeking to make it achieve. That is a serious proper role for an Upper

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House and the House of Lords performs it pretty

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Now this is a very different case. This is a two clause bill. The first

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clause which is the operative clause says the Prime Minister should go

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ahead and sign... I understand all that. We haven't got that much time,

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this is becoming a monologue. There is nothing to scrutinise, Andrew.

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There were plenty of amendments put before the Commons, none of them got

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through, it is true. There are eight Labour amendments in the Lords, are

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you resigned to this bill coming back to the Commons with amendments?

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No, it should not come back with amendments. There were hundreds of

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amendments literally put down in the House of Commons, they were all

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drunk. They were all trying one way or another to derail the process.

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This is a binary issue, should Theresa May sign the withdrawal or

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not? What should the Commons do? The Commons has now voted in favour of

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it. Node do should tolerate and unelected chamber forcing the

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British people... The people voted in a referendum and the Commons

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voted. The matter is now signed and sealed and should not be derailed by

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the House of Lords. On Labour amendment wants confirmation that

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when it is done, the potential Brexit agreement will be put before

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parliament before any vote in the European Parliament, that has been

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an agreed principle, what is wrong with that amendments? The government

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has already agreed there will be a vote, but actually, what the

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amendments were seeking was to give the Commons a further vote on

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whether we actually leave or not. That is already decided. Neither the

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House of Lords nor anybody else has a right in my view, despite the fact

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I was a remain, to what the will of the British people. Nobody should

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think an unelected chamber should now try to change the course of

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British history by asserting amendments in a very effective on

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clause bill which says go ahead and trigger Article 50. Are you

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concerned that amendments by the Lords which would then have to go

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back to the Commons for consideration, are you concerned

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that could derail or delay the Prime Minister's timetable for Article 50?

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Yes, exactly. That would be the result of a prolonged bout of

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ping-pong between the two houses, or much worse, if the House of Lords

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failed to give way and the Parliament act had to be used. It

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would really be intolerable. It is not good for our country. Those of

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us who voted remain would prefer for that not to happen. The whole

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country -- it is important for the whole country that this happens in a

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rapid way and allowing the government free rein to negotiate,

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that is surely in all our advantages? Deed think any efforts

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to abolish the House of Lords, an issue you have raised, does that

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make it easier because your friend David Cameron stuffed the upper

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chamber with donors, lapdogs and lingerie designers? I was among

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those who advocated for many years wholesale reform of the House of

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Lords, to turn it into a serious elected second chamber. I think we

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should have an upper house which commands legitimacy. This is a

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second issue. Here we have not got such a House and it seems to be very

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clear that it should not seek to derail on delay the action which has

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been mandated by the referendum, agreed by the House of Commons, and

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what we want to see now is a smooth orderly effect for this bill, so it

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becomes law and Theresa May can go ahead and negotiate on our behalf.

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One more question on the process, if the Lords to amend the bill and it

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goes back to the Commons and the Commons sends these amendments back

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again, take them out, how long could this ping-pong between the two

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chambers go on in your experience? It is a very, very interesting and

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complicated question with the clerks of the two ends of the Palace of

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Westminster not always agreeing about this. But through certain

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machinations of slightly changing amendments as they go, in my

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experience this could carry on for an awful long time if clever people,

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and there are plenty of clever people in the House of Lords, want

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to do that and that is precisely why I think we should not tolerate it.

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Oliver Letwin, thank you for joining us from Dorset.

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Joining me now is Labour's Leader in the House of Lords, Angela Smith.

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The Commons passed this bill without any amendments... There were

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changes, the government did concede a couple of points. But the

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amendments did not go through. Does that put pressure on the Lords to do

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the same? I think the Lords always feels under pressure to do the right

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thing. When I heard Oliver Letwin, I did not know whether to laugh or

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cry. We will not frustrate, we will not wreck, we will not sabotage. We

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will do what David Davis said was our patriotic duty. We will

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scrutinise the bill. We have at amendments from the Labour Party. We

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will look at those. It depends on the government response if we vote

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on those. There could be amendments asking the Commons to look again.

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That is normally what we do. It is not the wrong thing to do. But if

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you do this and make amendments, it then goes back to the Commons. If

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the Commons rejects the Lords' amendments, what do you think will

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happen? I do not see any extended ping-pong at all. It is perfectly

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legitimate. We are not talking about the outcome of negotiations, we are

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talking about the process. The process of engaging with Parliament

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and reporting to Parliament. It would be totally responsible for

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Parliament to say, off you go, Theresa May, have two years of

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negotiation and come back and talk to us at the end. The has to be a

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process where the government can use the expertise of parliament to get

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this right. But if you do put in some amendments, it has to go back

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to the Commons, they may well say they don't want those amendments and

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it may go back to the Lords, could that at the very least delay the

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Prime Minister's Brexit timetable? I don't think so. She said the end of

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March. Time has been built in for all the normal processes. I think

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Oliver Letwin and others are getting a bit overexcited. This is the

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normal process. Unless the government get things right the

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first time every time, the has to be this kind of process. These are

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reasonable amendments. This is a Labour amendment we are talking

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about here, you want a vote in the UK Parliament before any

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vote in the European Parliament if and when the Brexit deal is done,

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the Commons and the Lords get to vote on it first. But the government

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I think have already agreed to that so what is the point? It needs to be

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on the face of the bill. It is over well if the government have agreed

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it. Lord dubs had an agreement about child and look what happened to

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that. Does not sound as if you would go to the wire on that? It is

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important it is not just about the vote at the end, you have the

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ongoing engagement. If it is going to be a bad deal, we need to know

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long before we get to that stage? Is it something you would hold out for?

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I don't know yet. It is about how the House of Lords votes, Labour do

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not have a majority, we never had a majority in the House of Lords when

:24:17.:24:19.

we were in government. It is wrong to suggest that we cannot debate

:24:20.:24:24.

these issues... I don't think anyone is suggesting that. They are. It is

:24:25.:24:31.

not unfair to ask the government to ask the House of Commons to look

:24:32.:24:34.

again to look at those issues if that is what the House of Lords

:24:35.:24:38.

decides. Bit of the House of Commons says we looked, we are sticking with

:24:39.:24:43.

what we voted for, we rejected every amendment by at least 30 votes on

:24:44.:24:47.

all occasions, the Lords then have to buckle, is that what you are

:24:48.:24:52.

saying? Some point I think it is clear the House of Commons have to

:24:53.:24:56.

have its say. I think it is inconceivable that having had a

:24:57.:25:00.

referendum, which was not overwhelming, but it was a clear

:25:01.:25:05.

result, the House of Lords has no intention of sabotaging that but

:25:06.:25:07.

there are things which are not good about the process that we think

:25:08.:25:12.

could be improved. We have not just have the result of the referendum

:25:13.:25:16.

which voted to leave, but we have had the will of the Commons that

:25:17.:25:22.

passed this legislation by a majority of 372. And I am not

:25:23.:25:28.

contesting that for a second! Could you cite a precedent for the upper

:25:29.:25:33.

house amending a bill which passed by 372 votes in the Commons? Quite

:25:34.:25:37.

other things will come to the House of Lords with big majorities from

:25:38.:25:40.

the Commons and quite often the amendments we get, with that then

:25:41.:25:44.

forward and the government sees it could do better. Though not

:25:45.:25:50.

necessarily saying the government has got things wrong, but they could

:25:51.:25:53.

do things better. That happens time and time again and it is not

:25:54.:25:58.

unusual. If you were seen to thwart the referendum result and the vote

:25:59.:26:03.

in the Commons, the elected chamber of parliament, is the threat of

:26:04.:26:08.

abolition hanging over you? I think that is really ridiculous and

:26:09.:26:11.

absolute nonsense. We are not tying to what the decision of the House of

:26:12.:26:14.

Commons, we are trying to do better. It is a bit rich of the government

:26:15.:26:19.

and Oliver Letwin to complain about getting things through in time when

:26:20.:26:23.

the House of Commons spent -- the government spent three months trying

:26:24.:26:28.

to debate this issue. There have been some strong questions put to

:26:29.:26:31.

the government from the House of Lords on all sides. I don't know if

:26:32.:26:35.

the amendments have been passed or not. I think we have a good case for

:26:36.:26:44.

the government to get debate the point. If a traditional MP like

:26:45.:26:51.

Oliver Letwin is calling for the abolition of the hereditary and

:26:52.:26:55.

appointed chamber, and the Labour person like yourself was trying to

:26:56.:26:59.

defend that, that would not be a sustainable position, I would

:27:00.:27:04.

suggest! We saw this with the Strathclyde report as well, this is

:27:05.:27:07.

a government like no other. It is the first Conservative government in

:27:08.:27:10.

history not to have an automatic majority. They do not like challenge

:27:11.:27:15.

or scrutiny. But you get my point, Labour cannot go to the wire in

:27:16.:27:21.

defending and an elected second chamber, can it? Actually, Labour

:27:22.:27:23.

can go to the wire in saying the government does not get it right

:27:24.:27:27.

every time. House of Lords is going to normal processes and people like

:27:28.:27:34.

Oliver Letwin are really getting a little bit over excited, and people

:27:35.:27:37.

who have been anonymously briefing. Who has been anonymously briefing? I

:27:38.:27:44.

don't know, they are anonymous! I understand people want to make

:27:45.:27:47.

amendments, that is the role of the House of Lords, but can I just for

:27:48.:27:51.

the avoidance of doubt, is it still your case that whatever amendments

:27:52.:27:55.

to make, whatever may go back and forward, it is not your intention to

:27:56.:28:01.

stop Article 50 being triggered by the end of March? I have been saying

:28:02.:28:06.

that, exactly that for months and months and months. It is

:28:07.:28:09.

inconceivable that an unelected House will thwart the will of the

:28:10.:28:13.

House of Commons and a referendum on this issue. But that does not mean

:28:14.:28:16.

we will be bullied by Oliver Letwin and others. But the triggering will

:28:17.:28:21.

happen by the end of March? I very much suspect so unless Theresa May

:28:22.:28:27.

has second thoughts, I suspect that will happen. Thank you.

:28:28.:28:30.

Now, just because it's parliamentary recess next week

:28:31.:28:32.

There are two by-elections round the corner -

:28:33.:28:36.

one in Copeland, and another in Stoke-on-Trent Central

:28:37.:28:38.

where the former Shadow Education Secretary,

:28:39.:28:39.

Tristram Hunt, vacated his seat to take up a role

:28:40.:28:42.

as Director of the Victoria Albert Museum in London.

:28:43.:28:45.

But Labour are facing a fight to hold onto the constituency

:28:46.:28:47.

Seconds away, Ukip's new leader has stepped into the ring

:28:48.:28:53.

as their candidate in a by-election bout to see

:28:54.:28:56.

At the last election Ukip came second to Labour here

:28:57.:29:03.

But now they are confident they can land a knockout blow,

:29:04.:29:08.

because this place is packed with people that voted to leave the EU.

:29:09.:29:14.

70% of people voted to leave the European Union.

:29:15.:29:18.

I'm the only candidate standing in this election

:29:19.:29:25.

who is a true Brexiteer, who has always campaigned to leave

:29:26.:29:28.

the EU and therefore I believe I would be the best person

:29:29.:29:31.

But he has had to fight off allegations

:29:32.:29:34.

he wasn't living in the constituency when he entered the contest.

:29:35.:29:36.

Explain to me what is going on with this issue about your house?

:29:37.:29:40.

Well, we took up the lease the day before nominations.

:29:41.:29:42.

Everything we've done is perfectly legal and within the law.

:29:43.:29:44.

The Labour Party are trying to get off the real issues in this election

:29:45.:29:50.

and focus on something which is banal nonsense.

:29:51.:29:57.

And there's been trouble as well for the Labour contender.

:29:58.:30:02.

He's been labelled a Remoaner after he sent a series

:30:03.:30:05.

of anti-Brexit tweets, filled with words

:30:06.:30:07.

I can't believe I'm about to ask this question in a nursery

:30:08.:30:18.

on a Sunday morning TV programme, but did you really tweet that

:30:19.:30:21.

I tweeted many things about Brexit, that's tweet is out there.

:30:22.:30:26.

It was done quite after the referendum result and it

:30:27.:30:28.

was my way of showing my frustration at the fact that months

:30:29.:30:31.

after the result we hadn't had anything from the government.

:30:32.:30:36.

Theresa May had failed to produce any plan,

:30:37.:30:38.

she had failed to give any meaningful statement

:30:39.:30:40.

about what Brexit meant other than bland statements

:30:41.:30:42.

about Brexit is Brexit, and it's a hard Brexit, or a soft Brexit.

:30:43.:30:45.

The context of it was it was out of frustration.

:30:46.:30:49.

So you didn't mean to insult the 70% of the people who live here

:30:50.:30:53.

I never mean to insult anybody and you know,

:30:54.:30:56.

I've made it quite clear, if I'm elected as the member

:30:57.:30:58.

of Parliament for Stoke-on-Trent Central, I will absolutely respect

:30:59.:31:01.

the wishes of the people of Stoke Central.

:31:02.:31:03.

I will make sure my vote in parliament is to trigger Article 50.

:31:04.:31:07.

While the Tories' man has done little bit of rebranding too.

:31:08.:31:09.

I voted Remain and I've been open about that, but my top priority

:31:10.:31:12.

is about the economy and to ensure we still have an

:31:13.:31:15.

Theresa May has set out clear proposal to ensure we develop

:31:16.:31:19.

a trade relationship with Europe and make that a success.

:31:20.:31:29.

It means the Lib Dems and the Greens are the ones battling Brexit.

:31:30.:31:32.

Well, when the Lib Dem candidate is actually here.

:31:33.:31:34.

The candidate is a consultant cardiologist.

:31:35.:31:40.

He is actually at work today doing very important heart surgery.

:31:41.:31:43.

He will be back tomorrow, back on the campaign trail working hard.

:31:44.:31:45.

30% of people voted to Remain and nobody else

:31:46.:31:49.

is representing them, so, you know, it is still a live issue.

:31:50.:31:53.

It is still something people care about.

:31:54.:31:55.

We are only at the start of the Article 50 process

:31:56.:31:58.

We are very a clear that we are standing up for those

:31:59.:32:03.

who want to remain in the single market, who want to protect jobs

:32:04.:32:06.

Labour have taken people for granted in this area for a great many years.

:32:07.:32:10.

Ukip, I'm afraid, all Ukip can offer to politics is division.

:32:11.:32:13.

I've covered a lot of by-elections where Ukip have come second.

:32:14.:32:16.

We'll find out if they really got Labour on the ropes this

:32:17.:32:19.

And here is a full list of all the candidates standing

:32:20.:32:38.

in the Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election.

:32:39.:32:49.

They do atract lots of candidates. You can get that on the BBC website

:32:50.:32:58.

as well. I was trying to think back, here we have the main opposition

:32:59.:33:06.

party defending two seats in by-elections in the midterm of a

:33:07.:33:08.

government. All the speculation is where the

:33:09.:33:15.

opposition party can hold on, that is unprecedented. I can't give of an

:33:16.:33:20.

equivalent. You wouldn't just expect them to win seats they have held

:33:21.:33:26.

traditionally, you would expect hem to make inroads into seats held by

:33:27.:33:32.

the other party, I wonder if they fail to hold on to just one of

:33:33.:33:36.

these, whether it accelerates the momentum and criticism of the

:33:37.:33:41.

leadership of the moment. I think they are interesting constituencies.

:33:42.:33:45.

Matthew good win was talking about the left win coalition over the

:33:46.:33:51.

years, almost being too broad for its own good, including places like

:33:52.:33:58.

Primrose Hill and Hackney. Big university towns in Manchester,

:33:59.:34:03.

Bristol. Diverse ethnically and included places like Stoke which are

:34:04.:34:13.

more Conservative. With a small c. Less economically well-off, more

:34:14.:34:17.

diverse, can the left hang on to both bits of country. Recent

:34:18.:34:21.

evidence suggests it cannot and the opportunity for Ukip is to pick up

:34:22.:34:25.

the second of those two types of community, the Stokes and the cope

:34:26.:34:29.

lands. That what makes the by-elections interest I would

:34:30.:34:32.

suggest. It is not just about Mr Corbyn's future about which we hear

:34:33.:34:37.

too much, it is about this traditional Labour coalition, can it

:34:38.:34:41.

still survive, particularly in places like Stoke? Europe clearly is

:34:42.:34:46.

a test. I think it's a myth by the way that Labour are only split now,

:34:47.:34:53.

over Europe and it has always been a Tory problem, last time I was on I

:34:54.:34:57.

mentioned it. That is why we had a referendum in 75. That is why they

:34:58.:35:04.

had a round then. But they were in chaos behind the scenes over what

:35:05.:35:09.

they thought about the euro, skillful leadership can paper over

:35:10.:35:14.

the cracks, and to address the wider issue of whether we are now in an

:35:15.:35:18.

era where left right issues have disappeared, and there is more of a

:35:19.:35:23.

regional divide, if you take Europe out of the equation which you can't,

:35:24.:35:30.

but if you were able to, issues about health, transport housing do

:35:31.:35:34.

split more left-right than a regional divide, so I think there is

:35:35.:35:39.

still fundamental left-right issues, but Europe isn't one of them and

:35:40.:35:45.

Europe has to be managed by a Labour leader skill fully and evidently

:35:46.:35:48.

that hasn't happened now. How would you see the by-elections in the

:35:49.:35:53.

current political context? Labour should be walking them, it should be

:35:54.:35:58.

a sign of the March of the Labour Party taking on the current

:35:59.:36:00.

Conservative Government. I don't think they raise any questions about

:36:01.:36:04.

Corbyn's leadership because the people who put him in don't think

:36:05.:36:07.

that winning elections matter, you have to remember this will be the

:36:08.:36:13.

mainstream media, it will be our fault why any of those Labour

:36:14.:36:17.

candidates don't win, the thing that is interesting is whether there is

:36:18.:36:21.

is a role for Ukip. The argument after the referendum was Ukip has

:36:22.:36:25.

done its job, it got the referendum, nothing to see here, I remember

:36:26.:36:30.

speaking to put a Nuttall before he was Ukip leader, on the day after

:36:31.:36:37.

the battle and he said this is Year Zero, where Ukip starts now, and

:36:38.:36:41.

this, and this is the interesting thing, does, do we see this one

:36:42.:36:44.

particular party having a role in the future? And I think it is all to

:36:45.:36:49.

play for, they could not not have stood in this seat. They have to win

:36:50.:36:54.

it to be an electoral force. The Labour candidate in Copeland has

:36:55.:36:57.

made the NHS the issue for her in this, that goes into the left-right,

:36:58.:37:01.

are we spending enough, are we not? That will be a test of what you were

:37:02.:37:07.

saying to see if traditional left-right issue, which at the

:37:08.:37:10.

moment would play Labour's way I would suggest, are big enough to

:37:11.:37:13.

overcome all the things you have been talking about and Matthew has

:37:14.:37:17.

been talking about. Maybe at this particular junction they are not,

:37:18.:37:21.

but I don't think any of those issues will go away, and that is why

:37:22.:37:28.

I question whether we are see the end of a historic left-right divide.

:37:29.:37:34.

At the moment with Europe so prominent, clearly these

:37:35.:37:36.

by-elections are unusual. And they will be a test of leadership for

:37:37.:37:40.

Theresa May in the coming months if not at the moment, as they have been

:37:41.:37:44.

in a way that he hasn't risen to, for the Labour leader.

:37:45.:37:49.

We will be leave on BBC One on the night, February 23rd off back of

:37:50.:37:53.

this week, we will bring you the result of both these crucial

:37:54.:37:55.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:56.:37:59.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:38:00.:38:01.

Andrew, back to you. minutes, the Week Ahead.

:38:02.:01:14.

After the excitement and late nights in the Commons last week,

:01:15.:01:17.

MPs are having a little break this week as we head into

:01:18.:01:20.

But there's still plenty in the diary in the near future -

:01:21.:01:23.

let's just remind ourselves of some key upcoming dates.

:01:24.:01:31.

There they are. We have the two by-elections on February 23rd. The

:01:32.:01:41.

budget is 8th March. That will be the last spring budget under this

:01:42.:01:44.

Government because it moves to the autumn.

:01:45.:01:58.

That round of French elections narrows the candidates, probably

:01:59.:02:05.

about eight or nine, down to two, the two who come first and second,

:02:06.:02:10.

then go into a play off round on May 7th. That will determine the next

:02:11.:02:17.

President. Steve, listening to Oliver Letwin and to the Labour

:02:18.:02:21.

leader in the House of Lords, is there any way you think that end of

:02:22.:02:25.

March deadline for Mrs May could be in jeopardy? No, I don't. Andrew

:02:26.:02:30.

Smith couldn't have been clearer with you they would do nothing to

:02:31.:02:35.

block not just Article 50 but that timetable, so I would be surprised

:02:36.:02:41.

if they don't make it. Given her, Theresa May's explicit determination

:02:42.:02:45.

to do so, not to do so would have become a problem for her, I think

:02:46.:02:51.

one way or another... No before this vote last week there was a vote nor

:02:52.:02:55.

the deadline, to agree the deadline by all sides. Plain sailing do you

:02:56.:03:00.

think? There is no serious Parliamentary resistance and it

:03:01.:03:03.

would be a personal embarrassment, I think for the Prime Minister to name

:03:04.:03:06.

the the end of March as the deadline and to miss it, unless she has a

:03:07.:03:12.

good excuse. I I reckon it will change the atmosphere of politics

:03:13.:03:16.

for the next two years, as soon as the negotiations begin, people in

:03:17.:03:19.

our profession will hunt for any detail and inside information we can

:03:20.:03:24.

find, thing also be leaked, I think from the European side from time to

:03:25.:03:28.

time, it will dominate the headlines for a solid two years and change

:03:29.:03:32.

politics. Let me just raise a possible, a dark cloud. No bigger

:03:33.:03:38.

than man's hand, that can complicate the timetable, because the Royal

:03:39.:03:42.

Assent on the current timetable has to come round the 13th. I would

:03:43.:03:47.

suggest that the Prime Minister can't trigger that until she does

:03:48.:03:52.

get the Royal Assent. If there is a bit of ping-pong that could delay

:03:53.:03:57.

that by receive day, the last thing the Europeans would want, they have

:03:58.:04:00.

another big meeting at the end of March which is the 60th anniversary

:04:01.:04:07.

of the Treaty of Rome. They don't want Article 50 to land on the

:04:08.:04:14.

table... It would infuriate everybody. My guess is she will have

:04:15.:04:18.

done it by then, this is between the Commons and the Lords, I mean Andrew

:04:19.:04:22.

Smith couldn't have been clearer, that they might send something back

:04:23.:04:28.

but they didn't expect a kind of a long play over this, so. The Liberal

:04:29.:04:34.

Democrats, they are almost an irrelevance in the Commons but not

:04:35.:04:39.

the Lords, they feel differently. Now, we don't know yet what the

:04:40.:04:43.

European Union negotiating position is going to be, we don't know

:04:44.:04:47.

because there are several crucial elections taking place, the Dutch

:04:48.:04:50.

taking place in March and then the one we put up, the French, and, at

:04:51.:04:54.

the moment, the French one is, it seems like it is coming down, to a

:04:55.:05:01.

play-off in the second round between Madame Le Pen who could come first

:05:02.:05:09.

in the first round and this Blairite figure, independent, centre-leftish

:05:10.:05:13.

Mr Macron, he may well get through and that, and the outcome of that

:05:14.:05:18.

will be an important determine napt on our negotiations. -- determinant.

:05:19.:05:23.

You o couldn't have two more different candidate, you have a

:05:24.:05:27.

national a front candidate and on the other hand the closest thing

:05:28.:05:31.

France could have you to a liberal President. With a small l. A

:05:32.:05:38.

reformist liberal President. It would be the most French thing in

:05:39.:05:44.

the world to elect someone who while the rest of the world is elected

:05:45.:05:50.

elitist, to elect someone who is the son of a teacher, who has liberal

:05:51.:05:56.

views, is a member of the French elite. It would be a thing for them

:05:57.:06:03.

to elect a man like that which I why I see them doing it. If it is Le

:06:04.:06:11.

Pen, Brexit becomes a minor sideshow, if it is Le Pen, the

:06:12.:06:16.

future of the European Union is? Danger, regardless of whether we are

:06:17.:06:23.

were in or out. I suggest if it is Mr Macron that presents some

:06:24.:06:26.

problems. He doesn't have his own party. He won't have a majority in

:06:27.:06:30.

the French assembly, he is untried and untested. He wants to do a

:06:31.:06:35.

number of things that will be unpopular which is why a number of

:06:36.:06:42.

people close to Mrs Le Pen tell me that she has her eye on 2022. She

:06:43.:06:49.

thinks lit go to hell in a hand basket under Mr Macron. He hasn't

:06:50.:06:56.

got the experience. What I find fascinating. It is not just all to

:06:57.:07:01.

play for in France, it is the fact what happens in France and Germany,

:07:02.:07:04.

not so much Holland I think but Germany later on in the year, how

:07:05.:07:11.

much it impacts what we are going to get. How much which ex #i78 panting

:07:12.:07:24.

on them. And at the time we are trying to, withdrawing ourself from

:07:25.:07:27.

European politics it is fascinating how much it will affect us. You see

:07:28.:07:30.

what Matthew was talking about earlier in the show, that what we do

:07:31.:07:36.

know, almost for sure, is that the socialist candidate will not get

:07:37.:07:40.

through to the second round. He could come firth but the

:07:41.:07:45.

centre-right candidate. If we were discussing that monthing a we would

:07:46.:07:48.

say it between teen the centre-right and the national fronts. We are to

:07:49.:07:54.

saying that. Matthew good win who spent a time in France isn't sure Le

:07:55.:07:58.

Pen will get into the second round, which is interesting. It is, I mean,

:07:59.:08:04.

it is going to be as important for the future of the European Union, as

:08:05.:08:10.

in retrospect the British 2015 general election was, if Labour had

:08:11.:08:13.

got in there would have been no referendum. That referendum has

:08:14.:08:17.

transformed the European Union because we are leaving and the

:08:18.:08:23.

French election is significant. We will be live from Paris on April

:08:24.:08:28.

23rd on the day France goings to the first round of polls. Tom Watson, he

:08:29.:08:33.

was on The Andrew Marr Show earlier today, was asked about Mr Corbyn,

:08:34.:08:34.

this is what he had to say. We had a damaging second leadership

:08:35.:08:39.

election, so we've got The polls aren't great for us,

:08:40.:08:43.

but I'm determined now we've got the leadership settled for this

:08:44.:08:47.

parliament, that we can focus on developing a very positive clear

:08:48.:08:49.

message to the British people So Julia, I don't know who are you

:08:50.:09:05.

are giggling. I find it untenable that, he is a very good media

:09:06.:09:11.

performer and he comes on and he is sitting there so well, you know,

:09:12.:09:14.

things are bad but don't worry we are looking at what we can do to win

:09:15.:09:19.

2020. The idea that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were sitting in their

:09:20.:09:24.

offices or on TV screens at this time in the electoral cycle thinking

:09:25.:09:29.

well I wonder if we can come up with a policy the British people might

:09:30.:09:34.

like. It is a nonsense, this is Tuesday night book zlufb. I am going

:09:35.:09:42.

to ask you the question I was going to before. I would suggest that he

:09:43.:09:48.

the right. The deputy Labour leader Tom Watson is violent the leadership

:09:49.:09:55.

is settled, with one caveat, unless the Corbynistas themselves to decide

:09:56.:09:59.

to move on Mr Corbyn, if the left of the Labour Party decides then it is

:10:00.:10:04.

not settled. Settled. If that doesn't happen that is That would be

:10:05.:10:09.

the worst situation if you are a Labour moderate. The Corbynistas

:10:10.:10:14.

would be saying the problem is no Corbynism, it is Corbyn himself, if

:10:15.:10:19.

we a younger person leading the process we can win the next general

:10:20.:10:24.

election, which means you have another itration of this, another

:10:25.:10:29.

five year experiment. And that is worst of all. If you are a Labour

:10:30.:10:36.

moderate, what you want is Jeremy Corbyn contest the next general

:10:37.:10:41.

election, possibly loses badly and then a Labour not moderate runs for

:10:42.:10:44.

the leadership saying we have tried your way, the worst would be Corbyn

:10:45.:10:50.

going, and a younger seven version of him trying and the experiment

:10:51.:10:54.

being extended. I see no easy way out of this. That is why he radiated

:10:55.:11:00.

the enthusiasm of someone in a hostage video in that interview.

:11:01.:11:04.

Maybe he has the Stockholm Syndrome now. The Labour moderates have had

:11:05.:11:11.

their day in the sun, two days in the sun and they lost. I suggest

:11:12.:11:15.

they are not going to try for the hat-trick again. Is there any

:11:16.:11:20.

indication that on the more Corbyn wing of the Labour Party, there is

:11:21.:11:26.

now doubts about their man. Yes, just to translate Tom Watson, what

:11:27.:11:31.

he meant was I Tom Watson am not going to get involved in another

:11:32.:11:37.

attempted coup. I tried it and it was a catastrophe. That is question

:11:38.:11:43.

enhe says it is set selled. It is because there is speculation on a

:11:44.:11:49.

daily basis. I disagree, Julia said I think this lot don't care about

:11:50.:11:55.

winning, I think they do. If the current position continue, one of

:11:56.:11:58.

two things will happen. Either Jeremy Corbyn will decide himself

:11:59.:12:02.

will decide he doesn't want to carry on. He half enjoys I it and half

:12:03.:12:09.

hates it. Finds it a strain. If that doesn't happen there will be some

:12:10.:12:14.

people round him who will say, look, this isn't working. There is another

:12:15.:12:20.

three-and-a-half years. There is a long way to go. I can't see it

:12:21.:12:25.

lasting in this way with politics in a state of flux, Tories will be

:12:26.:12:30.

under pressure in the coming two years, to have opinion polls at this

:12:31.:12:35.

level, I think is unsustainable. Final thought from you.? Yes, the

:12:36.:12:39.

idea it St another three-and-a-half years is just madness, but the

:12:40.:12:44.

people we are putting up at replacement for Jeremy Corbyn, and

:12:45.:12:49.

they have been focus grouping them. Most members wouldn't know who most

:12:50.:12:53.

of people were let alone most of the public.

:12:54.:12:58.

Angela rain? They are not overwhelmed with leadership

:12:59.:13:04.

potential at the moment. Very diplomatically put. Neither are the

:13:05.:13:09.

Tories, but they happened to have one at the moment. All right. That

:13:10.:13:10.

is it. Now, there's no Daily

:13:11.:13:14.

or Sunday Politics for the next week But the Daily Politics will be back

:13:15.:13:16.

on Monday 20th February and I'll be back here with the Sunday Politics

:13:17.:13:21.

on the 26th. Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:22.:13:24.

it's the Sunday Politics... Just back from

:13:25.:13:26.

a very long shift at work...

:13:27.:14:08.

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