12/03/2017 Sunday Politics


12/03/2017

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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:00.:00:42.

David Davis tells MPs to leave the Brexit bill untouched,

:00:43.:00:46.

ahead of a week which could see Britain begin the process

:00:47.:00:49.

We'll talk to a Tory rebel and Ukip's Nigel Farage.

:00:50.:00:53.

Phillip Hammond's first budget hit the rocks thanks to a tax rise

:00:54.:00:56.

But how should we tax those who work for themselves?

:00:57.:01:04.

And remember Donald Trump's claim that Barack Obama had ordered

:01:05.:01:07.

We'll talk to the former Tory MP who set the whole story rolling.

:01:08.:01:18.

In London this week, a rise in anti-Semitic

:01:19.:01:20.

Universities urged to take a tougher approach.

:01:21.:01:23.

And joining me for all of that, three self-employed journalists

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who definitely don't deserve a tax break.

:01:36.:01:38.

It's Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer

:01:39.:01:40.

They'll be tweeting throughout the programme with all the carefree

:01:41.:01:44.

abandon of Katie Hopkins before a libel trial.

:01:45.:01:52.

BBC lawyers have suddenly got nervous!

:01:53.:01:54.

So first today, the government is gearing up to trigger Article 50,

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perhaps in the next 48 hours, and start negotiating Britain's

:01:58.:02:00.

Much has been written about the prospect of the Commons

:02:01.:02:03.

getting a "meaningful vote" on the deal Britain negotiates.

:02:04.:02:05.

Brexit Secretary David Davis was on the Andrew Marr programme

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earlier this morning and he was asked what happens

:02:09.:02:10.

Well, that is what is called the most favoured nation status deal

:02:11.:02:20.

There we go out, as it were, on WTO rules.

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That is why of course we do the contingency planning, to make

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The British people decided on June the 23rd last year

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My job, and the job of the government, is to make

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the terms on which that happens as beneficial as possible.

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There we have it, clearly, either Parliament votes for the deal when

:02:52.:02:58.

it is done or it out on World Trade Organisation rules. That's what the

:02:59.:03:02.

government means by a meaningful vote.

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I think we get over obsessed about whether there will be a legal right

:03:05.:03:10.

for Parliament to have a vote. If there is no deal or a bad deal, I

:03:11.:03:14.

think it would be politically impossible for the government to

:03:15.:03:17.

reject Parliament's desire for a vote because the atmosphere of

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politics will be completely different by then. I take David

:03:21.:03:23.

Davies seriously. Within Whitehall he has acquired a reputation as

:03:24.:03:29.

being the most conscientious and details sadly... And well briefed.

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Absolutely and well travelled in terms of European capitals of the

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three Brexit ministers. It is quite telling he said what he did and it

:03:37.:03:39.

is quite telling that within cabinet, two weeks ago he was

:03:40.:03:44.

floating the idea of no deal at all. Being if not the central estimate

:03:45.:03:47.

than a completely plausible eventuality. It is interesting. I

:03:48.:03:51.

would suggest the prospect of no deal is moving up the agenda. It is

:03:52.:03:57.

still less likely than more likely to happen. But it's no longer a kind

:03:58.:04:02.

of long tail way out there in the distance. Planning for no deal is

:04:03.:04:05.

the same as having contents insurance or travel insurance, plan

:04:06.:04:08.

for the worse case scenarios are prepared it happens. Even the worst

:04:09.:04:12.

case scenario, it's not that bad. Think of the Jeep 20, apart from the

:04:13.:04:16.

EU, four members of the G20 economies are successful members of

:04:17.:04:21.

the EU. The rest aren't and don't have trade deals but somehow these

:04:22.:04:25.

countries are prospering. They are growing at a higher rate. You are

:04:26.:04:29.

not frightened? Not remotely. We are obsessed with what we get from the

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EU and the key thing we get from leaving the EU is not the deal but

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the other deals we can finally make with other trading partners. They

:04:37.:04:40.

have higher growth than virtually every other EU country apart from

:04:41.:04:44.

Germany. It is sensible as a negotiating position for the

:04:45.:04:48.

government to say if there is no deal, we will accept there is no

:04:49.:04:52.

deal. We're not frightened of no deal. It was clear from what David

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Davies was saying that there will be a vote in parliament at the end of

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the process but there won't be a third option to send the government

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back to try to get a better deal. It is either the deal or we leave

:05:05.:05:09.

without a deal. In reality, that third option will be there. We don't

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know yet whether there will be a majority for the deal if they get

:05:14.:05:18.

one. What we do know now is that there isn't a majority in the

:05:19.:05:23.

Commons for no deal. Labour MPs are absolutely clear that no deal is

:05:24.:05:28.

worth then a bad deal. I've heard enough Tory MPs say the same thing.

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But they wouldn't get no deal through. When it comes to this vote,

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if whatever deal is rejected, there will then be, one way or another,

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the third option raised of go back again. But who gets to decide what

:05:45.:05:47.

is a bad deal? The British people will have a different idea than the

:05:48.:05:51.

two thirds of the Remain supporting MPs in the Commons. In terms of the

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vote, the Commons. Surely, if the Commons, which is what matters here,

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if the Commons were to vote against the deal as negotiated by the

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government, surely that would trigger a general election? If the

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government had recommended the deal, surely the government would then, if

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it still felt strongly about the deal, if the other 27 had said,

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we're not negotiating, extending it, it would in effect become a second

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referendum on the deal. In effect it would be a no-confidence vote in the

:06:27.:06:29.

government. You've got to assume that unless something massively

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changes in the opposition before then, the government would feel

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fairly confident about a general election on those terms. Unless the

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deal is hideously bad and obviously basso every vote in the country...

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The prior minister said if it is that bad she would have rather no

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deal. So that eventuality arrives. -- the Prime Minister has said. Not

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a second referendum general election in two years' time. Don't put any

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holidays for! LAUGHTER -- don't look any.

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So the Brexit bill looks likely to clear Parliament this week.

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That depends on the number of Conservative MPs who are prepared

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to vote against their government on two key issues.

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Theresa May could be in negotiations with our European

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partners within days, but there may be some

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wheeler-dealings she has to do with her own MPs, too.

:07:17.:07:18.

Cast your mind back to the beginning of month.

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The bill to trigger Article 50 passed comfortably

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But three Conservatives voted for Labour's amendments to ensure

:07:25.:07:32.

the rights of EU citizens already in the UK.

:07:33.:07:37.

Seven Tory MPs voted to force the government to give Parliament

:07:38.:07:40.

a say on the deal struck with the EU before it's finalised.

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But remember those numbers, they're important.

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On the issue of a meaningful vote on a deal, I'm told there might have

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been more rebels had it not been for this assurance from

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I can confirm that the government will bring forward a motion

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on the final agreement to be approved by both Houses

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And we expect, and intend, that this will happen before

:08:04.:08:07.

the European Parliament debates and votes on the final agreement.

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When the government was criticised for reeling back

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from when and what it would offer a vote on.

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The bill then moved into the Lords, where peers passed it

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And the second, that Parliament be given a meaningful vote on the terms

:08:27.:08:34.

of the deal or indeed a vote in the event of there

:08:35.:08:37.

The so-called Brexit bill will return to Commons

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Ministers insist that both amendments would weaken

:08:42.:08:45.

the government's negotiating hand and are seeking to overturn them.

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But, as ever, politics is a numbers game.

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Theresa May has a working majority of 17.

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On Brexit, though, it's probably higher.

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At least six Labour MPs generally vote with

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Plus, eight DUP MPs, two from the Ulster Unionist party

:09:02.:09:05.

If all Conservatives vote with the government as well,

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Therefore, 26 Conservative rebels are needed for the government to be

:09:13.:09:18.

So, are there rough waters ahead for Theresa May?

:09:19.:09:24.

What numbers are we looking at, in terms of a potential rebellion?

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I think we're looking at a large number of people who are interested

:09:28.:09:30.

This building is a really important building.

:09:31.:09:33.

It's symbolic of a huge amount of history.

:09:34.:09:35.

And for it not to be involved in this momentous time would,

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But he says a clear verbal statement from the government on a meaningful

:09:40.:09:46.

vote on any deal would be enough to get most Tory MPs onside.

:09:47.:09:52.

It was already said about David Jones.

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It's slightly unravelled a little bit during

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I think this is an opportunity to really get that clarity

:09:56.:10:01.

through so that we can all vote for Article 50 and get

:10:02.:10:03.

We've have spoken to several Tory MPs who say they are minded to vote

:10:04.:10:08.

One said the situation was sad and depressing.

:10:09.:10:12.

The other said that the whips must be worried because they don't

:10:13.:10:15.

A minister told me Downing Street was looking again at the possibility

:10:16.:10:21.

of offering a vote in the event of no deal being reached.

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But that its position was unlikely to change.

:10:27.:10:28.

And, anyway, government sources have told the Sunday Politics they're not

:10:29.:10:30.

That those Tory MPs who didn't back either amendment the first time

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round would look silly if they did, this time.

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It would have to be a pretty hefty lot of people changing their minds

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about things that have already been discussed in quite a lot of detail,

:10:45.:10:47.

last time it was in the Commons, for things to be reversed this time.

:10:48.:10:51.

There's no doubt that a number of Tory MPs are very concerned.

:10:52.:10:54.

Labour are pessimistic about the chances of enough Tory

:10:55.:10:56.

rebels backing either of the amendments in the Commons.

:10:57.:11:00.

The important thing, I think, is to focus on the fact

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that this is the last chance to have a say on this.

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If they're going to vote with us, Monday is the time to do it.

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Assuming the bill does pass the Commons unamended,

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it will go back to the Lord's on Monday night where Labour peers

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have already indicated they won't block it again.

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It means that the Brexit bill would become law and Theresa May

:11:19.:11:21.

would be free to trigger Article 50 within days.

:11:22.:11:25.

Her own deadline was the end of this month.

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But one minister told me there were advantages to doing it early.

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We're joined now from Nottingham by the Conservative MP Anna Soubry.

:11:35.:11:37.

She's previously voted against the government on the question

:11:38.:11:39.

of whether Parliament should have a final say over the EU deal.

:11:40.:11:46.

Anna Soubry, I think it was clear this morning from David Davies that

:11:47.:11:51.

what he means by meaningful vote is not what you mean by a meaningful

:11:52.:11:55.

vote. He thinks the choice for Parliament would be to either vote

:11:56.:12:00.

for the deal and if Parliament doesn't, we leave on World Trade

:12:01.:12:03.

Organisation rules, on a bare-bones structure. In the end, will he

:12:04.:12:10.

accept that in the Commons tomorrow? No, because my problem and I don't

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think it is a problem, but my problem, the government's problem is

:12:15.:12:18.

that what I want is then to answer this question. What happens in the

:12:19.:12:22.

event of their not being any deal? David Davies made it very clear that

:12:23.:12:26.

in the event of there being no deal, Parliament would have no say. It

:12:27.:12:31.

means through your elected representatives, the people of this

:12:32.:12:34.

country would have no say on what happens if the government doesn't

:12:35.:12:39.

get a deal. I think the request that Parliament should have a say on

:12:40.:12:42.

Parliamentary sovereignty, is perfectly reasonable. That is what I

:12:43.:12:46.

want David to say. If he says that, I won't be rebelling. If he does...

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They have refused to say that. Sorry. If he continues to say what

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he said the BBC this morning, which means that the vote will be either

:12:59.:13:04.

to accept the as negotiated or to leave on WTO rules, will you rebel

:13:05.:13:10.

on that question but no, no, sorry, if there's a deal, Parliament will

:13:11.:13:14.

have a say. So that's fine. And we will see what the deal is and we

:13:15.:13:18.

will look at the options two years down the road. When who knows

:13:19.:13:22.

what'll happen in our economy and world economy. That is one matter

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which I am content on. The Prime Minister, a woman of her word has

:13:27.:13:29.

said that in the event of a deal, Parliament will vote on any deal. I

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don't difficulty. To clarify, I will come onto that. These are important

:13:37.:13:40.

matters. I want to clarify, not argue with you. You are content that

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if there is a deal, we will come under no deal in a second, but if

:13:44.:13:47.

there is a deal, you are content with the choice of being able to

:13:48.:13:53.

vote for that deal or leaving on WTO terms? No, you're speculating as to

:13:54.:13:56.

what might happen in two years' time. What the options might be.

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Personally I find it inconceivable that the government will come back

:14:03.:14:05.

with a rubbish deal. They will either come back with a good deal,

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which I won't have a problem with or they will come back with no deal. To

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speculate about coming back with a deal, there is a variety of options.

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I understand that that is what the Lord amendments are about. They are

:14:18.:14:21.

about a vote at the end of the process. Do forgive me, the Lords

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amendment is not the same that I've voted for in Parliament. What we

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call the Chris Leslie amendment, which was talking about whatever the

:14:32.:14:34.

agreement is, whatever happens at the end of the negotiations,

:14:35.:14:36.

Parliament will have a vote. Parliament will have a say. The

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Lords amendment is a bit more technical. It is the principle of no

:14:41.:14:45.

deal that is agitating us. Let's clarify on this. They are

:14:46.:14:50.

complicated matters. What do you want the government to say? What do

:14:51.:14:54.

you want David Davis to say tomorrow on what should the Parliamentary

:14:55.:14:58.

process should be if there is no deal? Quite. I want a commitment

:14:59.:15:03.

from him that in the event of no deal, it will come into Parliament

:15:04.:15:06.

and Parliament will determine what happens next. It could be that in

:15:07.:15:14.

the event of no deal, the best thing is for us to jump off the cliff into

:15:15.:15:17.

WTO tariff is. I find it unlikely but that might be the reality. There

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might be other alternatives. Most importantly, including saying to the

:15:22.:15:25.

government, go back, carry on. The question that everybody has to ask

:15:26.:15:28.

is, why won't the government give My fear is what this is about is

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asked deliberately, not the Prime Minister, but others deliberately

:15:40.:15:44.

ensuring we have no deal and no deal pretty soon and in that event, we

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jumped off the cliff onto WTO tariffs and nobody in this country

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and the people of this country do not have a say. My constituents did

:15:54.:16:00.

not vote for hard Brexit. You do not want the government to

:16:01.:16:04.

have the ability if there is no deal to automatically fall back on the

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WTO rules? Quite. It is as simple as that. We are now speculating about

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what will happen in two years. I want to find out what happens

:16:15.:16:21.

tomorrow. What will you do if you don't get that assurance? I will

:16:22.:16:25.

either abstain, or I will vote to keep this amendment within the Bill.

:16:26.:16:30.

I will either vote against my government, which I do not do

:16:31.:16:34.

likely, I have never voted against my government until the Chris Leslie

:16:35.:16:38.

clause when the Bill was going through, or I will abstain, which

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has pretty much the same effect because it comes into the Commons

:16:43.:16:45.

with both amendments so you have positively to vote to take the map.

:16:46.:16:51.

Can you give us an idea of how many like-minded conservative colleagues

:16:52.:16:57.

there are. I genuinely do not know. You must talk to each other. I do

:16:58.:17:03.

not talk to every member of my party. You know people who are

:17:04.:17:10.

like-minded. I do. I am not doing numbers games. I know you want that

:17:11.:17:14.

but I genuinely do not know the figure. I think this is an

:17:15.:17:19.

uncomfortable truth. People have to understand what has happened in our

:17:20.:17:26.

country, two particular newspapers, creating an atmosphere and setting

:17:27.:17:30.

an agenda and I think many people are rather concerned, some

:17:31.:17:32.

frightened, to put their head over the parapet. There are many millions

:17:33.:17:39.

of people who feel totally excluded from this process. Many of them

:17:40.:17:44.

voted to remain. And they have lost their voice. We have covered the

:17:45.:17:47.

ground I wanted to. We're joined now by the Ukip MEP

:17:48.:17:48.

and former leader Nigel Farage. Article 50 triggered, we are leaving

:17:49.:18:01.

the EU, the single market and the customs union. What is left you to

:18:02.:18:05.

complain about? All of that will happen and hopefully we will get the

:18:06.:18:09.

triggered this week which is good news. What worries me a little I'm

:18:10.:18:13.

not sure the government recognises how strong their handers. At the

:18:14.:18:17.

summit in Brussels, the word in the corridors is that we are prepared to

:18:18.:18:21.

give away fishing waters as a bargaining chip and the worry is

:18:22.:18:25.

what deal we get. Are we leaving, yes I am pleased about that. You are

:18:26.:18:30.

under relevant voice in the deal because the deal will be voted on in

:18:31.:18:35.

Parliament and you have one MP. You are missing the point, the real vote

:18:36.:18:39.

in parliament is not in London but Strasbourg. This is perhaps the

:18:40.:18:43.

biggest obstacle the British Government faces. Not what happens

:18:44.:18:47.

in the Commons that the end of the two years, the European Parliament

:18:48.:18:52.

could veto the deal. What that means is people need to adopt a different

:18:53.:18:57.

approach. We do not need to be lobbying in the corridors of

:18:58.:19:00.

Brussels to get a good deal, we need is a country to be out there talking

:19:01.:19:06.

to the German car workers and Belgian chocolate makers, putting as

:19:07.:19:10.

much pressure as we can on politicians from across Europe to

:19:11.:19:13.

come to a sensible arrangement. It is in their interests more than

:19:14.:19:18.

ours. In what way is the vision of Brexit set out by David Davis any

:19:19.:19:26.

different from your own? I am delighted there are people now

:19:27.:19:29.

adopting the position I argued for many years. Good. But now... Like

:19:30.:19:37.

Douglas Carswell, he said he found David Davis' performers this morning

:19:38.:19:43.

reassuring. It is. And just as when Theresa May was Home Secretary every

:19:44.:19:47.

performance she gave was hugely reassuring. She was seen to be a

:19:48.:19:51.

heroine after her conference speeches and then did not deliver. I

:19:52.:19:57.

am concerned that even before we start we are making concessions. You

:19:58.:20:03.

described in the EU's divorce bill demands, 60 billion euros is floated

:20:04.:20:07.

around. You said it is laughable and I understand that. Do you maintain

:20:08.:20:14.

that we will not have to pay a penny to leave? It is nine months since we

:20:15.:20:22.

voted exit and assuming the trigger of Article 50, we would have paid 30

:20:23.:20:27.

billion in since we had a vote. We are still members. But honestly, I

:20:28.:20:31.

do not think there is an appetite for us to pay a massive divorce

:20:32.:20:36.

Bill. There are assets also. Not a penny? There will be some ongoing

:20:37.:20:43.

commitments, but the numbers talked about our 50, ?60 billion, they are

:20:44.:20:49.

frankly laughable. I am trying to find out if you are prepared to

:20:50.:20:54.

accept some kind of exit cost, it may be nowhere near 60 billion. We

:20:55.:20:59.

have to do a net agreement, the government briefed about our share

:21:00.:21:02.

of the European Union investment bank. Would you accept a

:21:03.:21:09.

transitional arrangement, deal, five, ten billion, as part of the

:21:10.:21:14.

divorce settlement? We are painted net ?30 million every single day at

:21:15.:21:19.

the moment, ?10 billion plus every year. That is just our contribution.

:21:20.:21:23.

We are going to make a massive saving on this. What do you make of

:21:24.:21:30.

what Anna Soubry said, that if there is no deal, and it is being talked

:21:31.:21:35.

about more. Maybe the government managing expectations. There is an

:21:36.:21:39.

expectation we will have a deal, but if there is no deal, that the

:21:40.:21:44.

government cannot just go to WTO rules, but it has to have a vote in

:21:45.:21:50.

parliament? By the time we get to that there will be a general

:21:51.:21:52.

election coming down the tracks and I suspect that if at the end of the

:21:53.:21:58.

two-year process there is no deal and by the way, no deal is a lot

:21:59.:22:02.

better for the nation than where we currently are, because we freed of

:22:03.:22:07.

regulations and able to make our own deals in the world. I think what

:22:08.:22:10.

would happen, and if Parliament said it did not back, at the end of the

:22:11.:22:18.

negotiation a general election would happen quickly. According to reports

:22:19.:22:24.

this morning, one of your most senior aides has passed a dossier to

:22:25.:22:30.

police claiming Tories committed electoral fraud in Thanet South, the

:22:31.:22:34.

seat contested in the election. What evidence to you have? I read that in

:22:35.:22:39.

the newspapers as you have. I am not going to comment on it. Will you not

:22:40.:22:43.

aware of the contents of the dossier? I am not aware of the

:22:44.:22:50.

dossier. He was your election strategists. I am dubious as to

:22:51.:22:55.

whether this dossier exists at all. Perhaps the newspapers have got this

:22:56.:23:01.

wrong. Concerns about the downloading of data the took place

:23:02.:23:09.

in that constituency, there are. Allegedly, he has refuted it, was it

:23:10.:23:15.

done by your MP to give information to the Tories, do you have evidence

:23:16.:23:21.

about? We have evidence Mr Carswell downloaded information, we have no

:23:22.:23:28.

evidence what he did with it. It is not just your aide who has been

:23:29.:23:32.

making allegations against the Conservatives in Thanet South and

:23:33.:23:38.

other seats, if the evidence was to be substantial, and if it was to

:23:39.:23:45.

result in another by-election being called an Thanet South had to be

:23:46.:23:48.

fought again, would you be the Ukip candidate? I probably would. You

:23:49.:23:54.

probably would? Yes. Just probably? Just probably. It would be your

:23:55.:24:00.

eighth attempt. Winning seats in parliament under first past the post

:24:01.:24:03.

is not the only way to change politics in Britain and I would like

:24:04.:24:06.

to think I proved that. Let's go back to Anna Soubry. The implication

:24:07.:24:12.

of what we were saying on the panel at the start of the show and what

:24:13.:24:16.

Nigel Farage was saying there would be that if at the end of the process

:24:17.:24:22.

whatever the vote, if the government were to lose it, it would provoke a

:24:23.:24:26.

general election properly. I think that would be right. Let's get real.

:24:27.:24:31.

The government is not going to come to Parliament with anything other

:24:32.:24:34.

than something it believes is a good deal and if it rejected it, would be

:24:35.:24:43.

unlikely, there would be a de facto vote of no confidence and it would

:24:44.:24:46.

be within the fixed term Parliaments act and that be it. The problem is,

:24:47.:24:52.

more likely, because of the story put up about the 50 billion, 60

:24:53.:24:57.

billion and you look at the way things are flagged up that both the

:24:58.:25:01.

Prime Minister and Boris Johnson saying, we should be asking them for

:25:02.:25:05.

money back, I think the big fear and the fear I have is we will be

:25:06.:25:10.

crashing out in six months. You think we could leave as quickly as

:25:11.:25:16.

six months. Explain that. I think they will stoke up the demand from

:25:17.:25:22.

the EU for 50, 60 billion back and my real concern is that within six

:25:23.:25:26.

months, where we're not making much progress, maybe nine months, and

:25:27.:25:30.

people are getting increasingly fed up with the EU because they are told

:25:31.:25:35.

it wants unreasonable demands, and then the crash. I think what is

:25:36.:25:39.

happening is the government is putting in place scaffolding at the

:25:40.:25:43.

bottom of the cliff to break our fall when we come to fall off that

:25:44.:25:49.

cliff and I think many in government are preparing not for a two-year

:25:50.:25:54.

process, but six, to nine months, off the cliff, out we go. That is my

:25:55.:25:59.

fear. That is interesting. I have not heard that express before by

:26:00.:26:04.

someone in your position. I suspect you have made Nigel Farage's date.

:26:05.:26:11.

It is a lovely thought. I would say to Anna Soubry she is out of date

:26:12.:26:16.

with this. 40 years ago there was a good argument for joining the common

:26:17.:26:19.

market because tariffs around the world was so high. That has changed

:26:20.:26:24.

with the World Trade Organisation. We are leaving the EU and rejoining

:26:25.:26:29.

a great big world and it is exciting. She was giving an

:26:30.:26:37.

interesting perspective on what could happen in nine months rather

:26:38.:26:39.

than two years. I thank you both. It was Philip Hammond's first

:26:40.:26:43.

budget on Wednesday - billed as a steady-as-she-goes

:26:44.:26:45.

affair, but turned out to cause uproar after the Chancellor appeared

:26:46.:26:51.

to contradict a Tory manifesto commitment with an increase

:26:52.:26:54.

in national insurance contributions. The aim was to address what some see

:26:55.:26:56.

as an imbalance in the tax system, where employees pay

:26:57.:27:05.

more National Insurance The controversy centres

:27:06.:27:06.

on increasing the so-called class 4 rate for the self-employed who make

:27:07.:27:10.

a profit of more than ?8,060 a year. It will go up in stages

:27:11.:27:13.

from 9% to 11% in 2019. The changes mean that over one

:27:14.:27:19.

and a half million will pay on average ?240 a year

:27:20.:27:23.

more in contributions. Some Conservative MPs were unhappy,

:27:24.:27:28.

with even the Wales Minister saying: "I will apologise to every

:27:29.:27:34.

voter in Wales that read the Conservative manifesto

:27:35.:27:36.

in the 2015 election." The Sun labelled Philip

:27:37.:27:38.

Hammond "spite van man". The Daily Mail called the budget

:27:39.:27:43.

"no laughing matter". By Thursday, Theresa May

:27:44.:27:46.

said the government One of the first things I did

:27:47.:27:49.

as Prime Minister was to commission Matthew Taylor to review the rights

:27:50.:27:55.

and protections that were available to self-employed workers

:27:56.:27:59.

and whether they should be enhanced. People will be able to look

:28:00.:28:01.

at the government paper when we produce it, showing

:28:02.:28:04.

all our changes, and take And, of course, the Chancellor will

:28:05.:28:06.

be speaking, as will his ministers, to MPs, businesspeople and others

:28:07.:28:11.

to listen to the concerns. Well, the man you heard mentioned

:28:12.:28:16.

there, Matthew Taylor, has the job of producing

:28:17.:28:18.

a report into the future Welcome. The Chancellor has decided

:28:19.:28:32.

the self-employed should pay almost the same in National Insurance, not

:28:33.:28:36.

the same but almost, as the employed will stop what is left of your

:28:37.:28:41.

commission? The commission has a broader frame of reference and we

:28:42.:28:44.

are interested in the quality of work in the economy at the heart of

:28:45.:28:51.

what I hope will be proposing is a set of shifts that will improve the

:28:52.:28:56.

quality of that work so we have an economy where all work is fair and

:28:57.:29:00.

decent and all jobs give people scope for development and

:29:01.:29:03.

fulfilment. The issue of taxes a small part. You will cover that? We

:29:04.:29:11.

will, because the tax system and employment regulation system drive

:29:12.:29:14.

particular behaviours in our labour market. You approve I think of the

:29:15.:29:20.

general direction of this policy of raising National Insurance on the

:29:21.:29:25.

self-employed. Taxing them in return perhaps for more state benefits. Why

:29:26.:29:30.

are so many others on the left against it from Tim Farron to John

:29:31.:29:35.

McDonnell? Tax rises are unpopular and it is the role of the opposition

:29:36.:29:39.

parties to make capital from unpopular tax rises. I think as tax

:29:40.:29:43.

rises go this is broadly progressive. There are self-employed

:29:44.:29:47.

people on low incomes and they will be better off. It is economic league

:29:48.:29:52.

rational because the reason for the difference in National Insurance --

:29:53.:29:55.

economically. It was to do with state entitlements. The government

:29:56.:30:00.

is consulting about paid parental leave. A series of governments have

:30:01.:30:06.

not been good about thinking about medium sustainability of the tax

:30:07.:30:11.

base. Self-employment is growing. But it is eroding the tax base. It

:30:12.:30:15.

is important to address those issues. A number of think tanks have

:30:16.:30:22.

said this is a progressive move. Yet, a number of left-wing

:30:23.:30:27.

politicians have been against it. And a number of Tories have said

:30:28.:30:32.

this is a progressive move and not a Tory government move, the balance of

:30:33.:30:36.

you will pay more tax, but you will get more state benefits is not a

:30:37.:30:41.

Tory approach to things. That a Tory approach will be you will pay less

:30:42.:30:44.

tax but entitled to fewer benefits as well.

:30:45.:30:48.

I preferred in and policies to politics -- I prefer policies. When

:30:49.:30:57.

people look at the policy and when they look the fact that there is no

:30:58.:31:01.

real historical basis for that big national insurance differential,

:31:02.:31:04.

they see it is a sensible policy. I don't have to deal with the

:31:05.:31:08.

politics. There has been a huge growth in self-employment from the

:31:09.:31:12.

turn of the millennium. It's been strongest amongst older workers,

:31:13.:31:13.

women part-timers. Do you have any idea, do you have

:31:14.:31:21.

the data in your commission that could tell us how many are taking

:31:22.:31:26.

self-employment because they like the flexibility and they like the

:31:27.:31:30.

tax advantages that come with it, too, or they are being forced into

:31:31.:31:35.

it by employers who don't want the extra costs of employment? Do we

:31:36.:31:39.

know the difference? We do, broadly. Most surveys on self-employment and

:31:40.:31:46.

flexible forms of employment suggest about two thirds to three quarters

:31:47.:31:48.

enjoy it, they like the flexibility, they like the autonomy and about a

:31:49.:31:53.

third to one quarter are less happy. That tends to be because they would

:31:54.:31:57.

like to have a full-time permanent job. It is not necessary that they

:31:58.:32:00.

don't enjoy what they are doing, they would like to do other things.

:32:01.:32:04.

And some of the protections that come with it? Yes. There are some

:32:05.:32:09.

people who are forced into southern employees by high-risk but also some

:32:10.:32:12.

people feel like they can't get a proper job as it were. --

:32:13.:32:16.

self-employment by people who hire them. It is on the narrow matter of

:32:17.:32:22.

tax revenues but if you are employed on ?32,000 the state will take over

:32:23.:32:26.

?6,000 in national insurance contributions, that is quite chunky.

:32:27.:32:31.

If you are self-employed it is ?2300. But the big difference

:32:32.:32:35.

between those figures isn't what the employee is paying, it's the

:32:36.:32:41.

employer's contributions up to almost 14%, and cupped for as much

:32:42.:32:46.

as you are paid. What do you do about employers' contributions for

:32:47.:32:54.

the self employed? -- it is uncapped for as much. What I recommend is

:32:55.:32:58.

that we should probably move from taxing employment to taxing labour.

:32:59.:33:02.

We should probably have a more level playing field so it doesn't really

:33:03.:33:07.

matter... Explained that I thought it was the same thing. If you are a

:33:08.:33:11.

self-employed gardener, you are a different tax regime to a gardener

:33:12.:33:15.

who works for a gardening firm. On the individual side and on the firm

:33:16.:33:23.

side. As we see new business models, so-called gig working, partly with

:33:24.:33:26.

technology, we need a more level playing field saying that we're

:33:27.:33:32.

taxing people's work, not the form in which they deliver that. That is

:33:33.:33:36.

part of the reason we have seen the growth of particular business

:33:37.:33:38.

models. They are innovative and creative and partly driven by the

:33:39.:33:43.

fact that if you can describe yourself as self-employed there are

:33:44.:33:48.

tax advantages. Coming out in June? Will you come back and talk to us?

:33:49.:33:50.

Yes. We say goodbye to viewers

:33:51.:33:51.

in Scotland, who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes,

:33:52.:33:56.

we'll be talking to the former Tory MP who was the root

:33:57.:34:01.

of Donald Trump's allegation that he had been put

:34:02.:34:07.

under surveillance by First though, the Sunday

:34:08.:34:10.

Politics where you are. Now the government plans for new

:34:11.:57:08.

grammar schools. The Education Secretary

:57:09.:57:23.

Justine Greening was speaking to a conference

:57:24.:57:24.

of headteachers on Friday. They're normally a pretty polite

:57:25.:57:26.

bunch, but they didn't Broadcasters weren't

:57:27.:57:28.

allowed into the speech, but this was captured

:57:29.:57:35.

on a camera phone. And we have to recognise actually

:57:36.:57:40.

for grammars, in terms of disadvantaged children,

:57:41.:57:43.

that they have, they really do help them close

:57:44.:57:46.

the attainment gap. And at the same time

:57:47.:57:49.

we should recognise that ..That parents also want choice

:57:50.:57:51.

for their children and that those schools are often

:57:52.:57:58.

very oversubscribed. I suppose it is a rite of passage

:57:59.:58:13.

for and education secretaries to have this at a head teachers

:58:14.:58:17.

conference book the head are usually more polite. Isn't part of the

:58:18.:58:22.

problem, whether one is for or against the expansion of grammar

:58:23.:58:28.

schools, the government plans are complicated, you cannot sum them up

:58:29.:58:31.

in a sentence. The proof of that is they can still get away with denying

:58:32.:58:36.

they are expanding grammar schools. They will find an alternative

:58:37.:58:39.

formulation because it is not as simple as a brute creation of what

:58:40.:58:43.

we used to know is grammar schools with the absolute cut-off of the 11

:58:44.:58:49.

plus. I am surprised how easy they found it politically. We saw the

:58:50.:58:53.

clip of Justine Greening being jeered a little bit but in the grand

:58:54.:58:58.

scheme, compared to another government trying this idea a decade

:58:59.:59:01.

ago they have got away with it easily and I think what is happening

:59:02.:59:06.

is a perverse consequence of Brexit and the media attention on Brexit,

:59:07.:59:10.

the government of the day can just about get away with slightly more

:59:11.:59:14.

contentious domestic policies on the correct assumption we will be too

:59:15.:59:19.

busy investing our attention in Article 50 and two years of

:59:20.:59:23.

negotiations, WTO terms at everything we have been discussing.

:59:24.:59:29.

I wonder if after grammar schools there will be examples of

:59:30.:59:31.

contentious domestic policies Theresa May can slide in stock

:59:32.:59:36.

because Brexit sucks the life out, takes the attention away. You are a

:59:37.:59:44.

supporter. Broadly. Are you happy with the government approach? They

:59:45.:59:51.

need to have more gumption and stop being apologetic. It is a bazaar

:59:52.:59:55.

area of public policy where we judge the policy on grammar schools based

:59:56.:00:00.

on what it does for children whose parents are unemployed, living on

:00:01.:00:04.

sink estates in Liverpool. It is absurd, we don't judge any other

:00:05.:00:09.

policy like that. It is simple, not contentious, people who are not

:00:10.:00:13.

sure, ask them if they would apply to send their child there, six out

:00:14.:00:17.

of ten said they would. Parents want good schools for their children, we

:00:18.:00:23.

should have appropriate education and they should be straightforward,

:00:24.:00:26.

this is about the future of the economy and we need bright children

:00:27.:00:30.

to get education at the highest level, education for academically

:00:31.:00:36.

bright children. It is supposed to be a signature policy of the Theresa

:00:37.:00:40.

May administration that marks a government different from David

:00:41.:00:44.

Cameron's government who did not go down this road. The signature is

:00:45.:00:45.

pretty blurred, it is hard to read. It is. She is trying to address

:00:46.:00:55.

concerns about those who fail to get into these selective schools and

:00:56.:00:59.

tried to targeted in poorer areas and the rest of it. She will

:01:00.:01:02.

probably come across so many obstacles. It is not clear what form

:01:03.:01:06.

it will take in the end. It is really an example of a signature

:01:07.:01:10.

policy not fully thought through. I think it was one of her first

:01:11.:01:13.

announcements. It was. It surprised everybody. Surprised at the speed

:01:14.:01:17.

and pace at which they were planning to go. Ever since, there have been

:01:18.:01:22.

qualifications and hesitations en route with good cause, in my view. I

:01:23.:01:27.

disagree with Juliet that this is... We all want good schools but if you

:01:28.:01:31.

don't get in there and you end up in a less good school. They already do

:01:32.:01:35.

that. We have selection based on the income of parents getting into a

:01:36.:01:39.

good catchment area, based on the faith of the parents. That becomes

:01:40.:01:45.

very attainable! I might been too shot run christenings for these. --

:01:46.:01:47.

I have been. Now, you may remember this time last

:01:48.:01:50.

week we were talking about the extraordinary claims by US

:01:51.:01:52.

President Donald Trump, on Twitter of course,

:01:53.:01:54.

that Barack Obama had ordered And there was me thinking

:01:55.:01:57.

that wiretaps went out Is it legal for a sitting

:01:58.:02:00.

President to do so, he asked, concluding it was a "new low",

:02:01.:02:05.

and later comparing it to Watergate. Since then, the White House has been

:02:06.:02:14.

pressed to provide evidence for this It hasn't, but it seems it may have

:02:15.:02:17.

initially come from a report on a US website by the former Conservative

:02:18.:02:23.

MP Louise Mensch. She wrote that the FBI had been

:02:24.:02:26.

granted a warrant to intercept communications between Trump's

:02:27.:02:29.

campaign and Russia. Well, Louise Mensch joins

:02:30.:02:36.

us now from New York. Louise, you claimed in early

:02:37.:02:49.

November that the FBI had secured a court warrants to monitor

:02:50.:02:52.

communications between trump Tower in New York at two Russian banks.

:02:53.:02:58.

It's now four months later. Isn't it the case that nobody has proved the

:02:59.:02:59.

existence of this warrant? First of all, forgive me Andrew, one

:03:00.:03:09.

takes 1's life in one's hand when it is you but I have to correct your

:03:10.:03:13.

characterisation of my reporting. It is very important. I did not report

:03:14.:03:16.

that the FBI had a warrant to intercept anything or that Trump

:03:17.:03:22.

tower was any part of it. What I reported was that the FBI obtained a

:03:23.:03:25.

warrant is targeted on all communications between two Russian

:03:26.:03:30.

banks and were, therefore, allowed to examine US persons in the context

:03:31.:03:37.

of their investigation. What the Americans call legally incidental

:03:38.:03:40.

collection. I certainly didn't report that the warrant was able to

:03:41.:03:46.

intercept or that it had location basis, for example Trump tower. I

:03:47.:03:50.

just didn't report that. The reason that matters so much is that I now

:03:51.:03:55.

believe based on the President's reaction, there may well be a

:03:56.:04:00.

wiretap act Trump Tower. If so, Donald Trump has just tweeted out

:04:01.:04:03.

evidence in an ongoing criminal case that neither I nor anybody else

:04:04.:04:07.

reported. He is right about Watergate because he will have

:04:08.:04:11.

committed obstruction of justice directly from his Twitter account.

:04:12.:04:15.

Let me come back as thank you for clarifying. Let me come back to the

:04:16.:04:21.

question. -- and thank you. We have not yet got proof that this warrant

:04:22.:04:26.

exists, do we? No and we are most unlikely to get it because it would

:04:27.:04:30.

be a heinous crime for Donald Trump to reveal its existence. In America

:04:31.:04:35.

they call it a Glomar response. I can neither confirm nor deny. That

:04:36.:04:38.

is what all American officials will have to say legally. If you are

:04:39.:04:43.

looking for proof, you won't get it until and unless a court cases

:04:44.:04:46.

brought. But that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. The BBC validated

:04:47.:04:52.

this two months after me in their reporting by the journalist Paul

:04:53.:04:56.

Wood. The Guardian, they also separately from their own sources

:04:57.:04:59.

validated the existence of the warrant. If you are in America, you

:05:00.:05:03.

would know that CNN and others are reporting that the investigation in

:05:04.:05:07.

ongoing. Let me come onto the wider point. You believe the Trump

:05:08.:05:11.

campaign including the president were complicit with the Russians

:05:12.:05:15.

during the 2016 election campaign to such an extent that Mr Trump should

:05:16.:05:19.

be impeached. What evidence did you have?

:05:20.:05:25.

That is an enormous amount of evidence. You could start with him

:05:26.:05:30.

saying, hey, Russia, if you are listening, please release all the

:05:31.:05:33.

Hillary Clinton's e-mails. That's not evidence. I think it rather is,

:05:34.:05:38.

actually. Especially if you look at some of the evidence that exists on

:05:39.:05:42.

Twitter and elsewhere of people talking directly to his social media

:05:43.:05:46.

manager, Dan should be no and telling him to do that before it

:05:47.:05:50.

happened. There is a bit out there. The BBC itself reported that in

:05:51.:05:55.

April of last year, a six agency task force, not just the FBI, but

:05:56.:05:59.

the Treasury Department, was looking at this. I believe there is an

:06:00.:06:03.

enormous amount of evidence. And then there is the steel dossier

:06:04.:06:06.

which was included in an official report of the US intelligence

:06:07.:06:14.

committee. You've also ... Just to be clear, we don't have hard

:06:15.:06:17.

evidence yet whether this warrant exists. It may or may not. There is

:06:18.:06:21.

doubt about... There are claims about whether there is evidence

:06:22.:06:25.

about Mr Trump and the Russians. That is another matter. You claimed

:06:26.:06:30.

that President Putin had Andrew Breitbart murdered to pave the way

:06:31.:06:37.

for Steve Bannon to play a key role in the Trump administration. I

:06:38.:06:41.

haven't. You said that Steve Bannon is behind bomb threats to Jewish

:06:42.:06:45.

community centres. Aren't you in danger of just peddling wild

:06:46.:06:50.

conspiracy theories? No. Festival, I haven't. No matter how many times

:06:51.:06:54.

people say this, it's not going to be true -- first of all. I said in

:06:55.:06:58.

twitter I believe that to be the case about the murder of Andrew

:06:59.:07:02.

Breitbart. You believe President Putin murdered him. I didn't! You

:07:03.:07:08.

said I reported it, but I believed it. You put it on twitter that you

:07:09.:07:12.

believed it but you don't have a shred of evidence. I do. Indeed, I

:07:13.:07:18.

know made assertions. What is the evidence that Mr Putin murdered

:07:19.:07:22.

Andrew Breitbart? I said I believe it. You may believe there are

:07:23.:07:28.

fairies at the bottom of your garden, it doesn't make it true. I

:07:29.:07:32.

may indeed. And if I say so, that's my belief. If I say I am reporting,

:07:33.:07:40.

as I did with the Fisa warrant exists, I have a basis in fact. They

:07:41.:07:47.

believe is just a belief. I know you are relatively new to journalism.

:07:48.:07:53.

Let me get the rules right. Andrew, jealousy is not your colour... If it

:07:54.:07:57.

is twitter, we don't believe it but if it is on your website, we should

:07:58.:08:01.

believe it? If I report something and I say this happened, then I am

:08:02.:08:06.

making an assertion. If I describe a belief, I am describing a belief.

:08:07.:08:11.

Subtlety may be a little difficult for you... No, no. If you want to be

:08:12.:08:15.

a journalist, beliefs have to be backed up with evidence. Really? Do

:08:16.:08:23.

you have a faith? It's not a matter of faith, maybe in your case, that

:08:24.:08:25.

President Putin murdered Andrew Breitbart. A belief and a report at

:08:26.:08:32.

two different things and no matter how often you say that they are the

:08:33.:08:36.

same, they will never be the same. You've said in today's Sunday Times

:08:37.:08:40.

here in London that you've turned into" a temporary superpower" where

:08:41.:08:49.

you "See things really clearly". Have you become delusional? No. I am

:08:50.:08:53.

describing a biological basis for ADHD, which I have. As any of your

:08:54.:09:00.

viewers who are doctors will know. It provides people with

:09:01.:09:02.

unfortunately a lot of scattered focus, they are very messy and

:09:03.:09:06.

absent-minded but when they are interested in things and they have

:09:07.:09:10.

ADHD they can have a condition which is hyper focus. You concentrate very

:09:11.:09:14.

hard on a given subject and you can see patterns and connections. That

:09:15.:09:19.

is biological. Thank you for explaining that. And for getting up

:09:20.:09:25.

early in New York. The first time ever I have interviewed a temporary

:09:26.:09:29.

superpower. Thank you. You are so lucky! You are so lucky! I don't

:09:30.:09:32.

think it's going to happen again. Please don't ask us to comment on

:09:33.:09:37.

that interview! I will not ask you, viewers will make up their own

:09:38.:09:42.

minds. Let's come back to be more mundane world of Article 50. Stop

:09:43.:09:43.

the killing! Will it get through at the

:09:44.:09:51.

government wanted it? Without the Lords amendment falling by the way

:09:52.:09:54.

that? I am sure the Lord will not try to ping-pong this back and

:09:55.:09:58.

forth. So we are at the end of this particular legislative phase. The

:09:59.:10:02.

fact that all three Brexit Cabinet ministers, number ten often don't

:10:03.:10:05.

like one of them going out on a broadcast interview on a Sunday,

:10:06.:10:09.

they've all been out and about. That suggests to me they are working on

:10:10.:10:12.

the assumption it will be triggered this week. This week. The

:10:13.:10:17.

negotiations will begin or at least the process begins. The negotiation

:10:18.:10:22.

process may be difficult, given all of the European elections. The Dutch

:10:23.:10:26.

this week. And then the French and maybe the Italians and certainly the

:10:27.:10:30.

Germans by the end of September, which is less predictable than it

:10:31.:10:34.

was. Given all that, what did you make of Anna Soubry's claim, Viacom

:10:35.:10:39.

on her part, that we may just end up crashing out in six months question

:10:40.:10:44.

-- fear on her part. It was not just that that we made that deliberately

:10:45.:10:50.

organising. I want us to get on with the deals.

:10:51.:10:53.

Everyone knows a good deal is the best option. Who knows what is going

:10:54.:11:00.

to be on the table when we finally go out? Fascinatingly, the demand

:11:01.:11:03.

for some money back, given the amount of money... Net gains and net

:11:04.:11:09.

costs in terms of us leaving for the EU. It is all to play for. That will

:11:10.:11:16.

be a possible early grounds for a confrontation between the UK and the

:11:17.:11:20.

EU. My understanding is that they expect to do a deal on reciprocal

:11:21.:11:25.

rights of EU nationals, EU nationals here, UK citizens there, quite

:11:26.:11:28.

quickly. They want to clear that up and that will be done. Then they

:11:29.:11:33.

will hit this problem that the EU will be saying you've got to agree

:11:34.:11:36.

the divorce Bill first before we talk about the free trade bill.

:11:37.:11:41.

David Davis saying quite clearly, no, they go together because of the

:11:42.:11:45.

size of the bill. It will be determined, in our part, by how good

:11:46.:11:50.

the access will be. The mutual recognition of EU residents' rights

:11:51.:11:54.

is no trouble. A huge amount of fuss is attracted to that subject but it

:11:55.:11:57.

is the easiest thing to deal with, as is free movement for tourists.

:11:58.:12:01.

Money is what will make it incredibly acrimonious. Incredibly

:12:02.:12:04.

quickly. I imagine the dominant story in the summer will be all

:12:05.:12:09.

about that. This was Anna Soubry's implication, members of the

:12:10.:12:12.

governors could strongly argue, things are so poisonous and so

:12:13.:12:15.

unpleasant at the moment, the dealers are advancing -- members of

:12:16.:12:19.

the government. Why not call it a day and go out on WTO terms while

:12:20.:12:25.

public opinion is still in that direction in that Eurosceptic

:12:26.:12:28.

direction? No buyers' remorse about last year's referendum. The longer

:12:29.:12:32.

they leave it, view more opportunity there is for some kind of public

:12:33.:12:35.

resistance and change of mind to take place. The longer believe it,

:12:36.:12:40.

the more people who voted for Brexit and people who voted Remain and

:12:41.:12:44.

think we didn't get world War three will start being quite angry with

:12:45.:12:48.

the EU for not agreeing a deal. In terms of the rights of EU nationals

:12:49.:12:52.

he and Brits abroad, by all accounts, 26 of the 27 have agreed

:12:53.:12:57.

individually. Angela Merkel is the only person who has held that up.

:12:58.:13:00.

That will be dealt with in a matter of days. The chances of a deal being

:13:01.:13:06.

done is likely but in ten seconds... It would not be a bad bet to protect

:13:07.:13:10.

your on something not happening, you might get pretty good odds? The odds

:13:11.:13:14.

are going up that a deal doesn't happen. But, as I said earlier, the

:13:15.:13:20.

House of Commons will not endorse no deal. We are either in an early

:13:21.:13:24.

election or she has to go back again. Either way, you will need us!

:13:25.:13:29.

We will be back at noon tomorrow on BBC Two ahead of what looks like

:13:30.:13:33.

being a big week in politics. We will be back here same time, same

:13:34.:13:34.

place. Remember, if it's Sunday,

:13:35.:13:37.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:38.:13:42.

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